13Dec2018 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street Futures Ease Off From Trade Optimism-fueled Jump, DOW Up 0.2%, US Solar Installations In Q3 Fell 30%, WTI Has Fallen Into The Mid 50 Handle

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are mixed today. The DAX is up 0.29% while the CAC 40 gains 0.10%. The FTSE 100 is off 0.06%.

Exclusive: China makes first big U.S. soybean purchase since Trump-Xi truce

China on Wednesday made its first major purchases of U.S. soybeans since President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping struck a trade war truce earlier this month, providing some relief to U.S. farmers who have struggled to find buyers for their record-large harvest.

GE’s digital unit to sell majority stake in ServiceMax

General Electric Co on Thursday said its digital unit would sell a majority stake in ServiceMax, a cloud-based provider of software used in inventory and workforce management, to technology-focused private equity firm Silver Lake.

U.S. carrier Delta Air Lines expects fuel expenses to drop in 2019

U.S. carrier Delta Air Lines Inc on Thursday forecast a $300 million drop in fuel expenses for 2019 and said it expects robust air travel demand to boost profit for the year.

Qualcomm to file suits in Chinese courts to ban sales of iPhone XS and XR: Financial Times

Qualcomm Inc is asking courts in China to ban sales of Apple Inc’s latest iPhone models XS and XR after winning a preliminary injunction against older models, the Financial Times reported on Thursday.

Stocks wait for ECB signals, pound strong after Brexit drama

Santa made a lackluster attempt to deliver his traditional end of year rally on Thursday, as world stocks squeezed out a third day of gains and the pound and the euro both stayed firm after the latest bout of Brexit drama.

Futures ease off from trade optimism-fueled jump

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Thursday, easing from gains earlier in the session, with investors increasingly taking a wait-and-see approach as the United States and China make progress on resolving their bitter trade dispute.

UK’s Nissan Brexit letter still too confidential to release two years on: FOI

A British government letter to Nissan two years ago offering reassurances about Brexit, which helped secure a major investment from the Japanese carmaker, is still considered too sensitive to release, a Reuters freedom of information request revealed.

ECB stops its printing presses even as growth concerns rise

The European Central Bank decided on Thursday to end its lavish asset purchase scheme but otherwise kept policy broadly unchanged, promising protracted stimulus for an economy struggling with an unexpected slowdown and political turmoil.

ECB formally ends QE, keeps reinvestments open-ended

The European Central Bank decided on Thursday to formally end its 2.6 trillion euro ($2.95 trillion) bond purchase scheme but said it would keep reinvesting cash from maturing bonds for a long time after its first interest rate hike.

Watch Live: Mario Draghi Explain How Dovish The End Of ECB QE Is

Having slashed both growth and inflation outlooks, one could be forgiven for wondering why ECB President Mario Draghi would choose now to stop its massive bond-buying program (which has done so much good for the European economy and markets)…

With stocks and the euro weak, Draghi will do his utmost to crush any reporters’ efforts to shift The ECB’s actions narrative in a hawkish direction.

“I got this…”

And here is what The ECB looks like on Bloomberg’s Hawk-Dove-o-meter:

Watch li …

Blain: “Italy Is Not Going To Cut The Deficit Number. It Simply Says It Will”

Blain’s Morning Porridge submitted by Bill Blain

“I put them with my own, can’t make it all alone, I’ve built my dreams around you.”

As I said yesterday; if May wins the UK remains a SELL.

She won her confidence vote, but, the essential reality is 2 in 5 Conservative MPs oppose her. As a result, nothing will be solved about Brexit. The latest polls broadly suggest the UK is hung 50/50 leave/remain, but break it down and it’s still 50% remain, but 25% of leavers who would accept the current deal are vehemently opposed by the 25% who’d prefer a no deal Brexit. That’s the critical political fault line exposed by yesterday’s vote.

These are the numbers party strategists will be making their calculations upon. Every politician is each assessing their own chances and opportunities. The UK is now a game of political optimisation.

Pro-Brexit MPs with leave majorities should be concerned – their vote is split. For MPs sitting on Remain majorities or even modest minorities, their political maximization strategy is probably to align with Remain as the Leave vote becomes increasingly fractured, split and disenchanted. The extreme Brexiteers will fulminate, get angry, drop their allegiances, and waste their votes on the extreme right or whatever Nigel Farage comes up with.. 25% of the electorate will win one or two seats at the next election. Discount them.

The exact numbers are something we need to analyse in terms of individual MPs, on a party to party basis, at a constituency parliamentary and referendum level – I’ve got someone in mind to work on it.

Smart investors should be able to make some educated guesses how these scenarios play out… and thus: when to buy into a cheap UK. More than happy to discuss timing…

My own guess is we’re likely to see a parliamentary shift toward …

GE Soars 12% As ‘Biggest Bear’ Upgrades Stock To “Neutral”

A day after collapsing to the ominous $6.66 March 2009 closing lows, GE stock is soaring in the pre-market after long-time bear JPMorgan analyst Steve Tusa upgrades the company to neutral from underweight.

Citing the fact that the liabilities and “known unknowns” are better understood and priced into the stock price, Tusa (who has been a “sell” since May 2016) wrote that:

“We believe a more negative outcome on these liabilities (equity dilution, for one) is at least partially discounted, and it’s possible that the company can execute its way through an elongated workout that limits near-term downside,”

And that was good enough to juice the stock up 12% in the pre-market…

Still, he warned that a reset in free cash flow expectations may be necessary, even as it could provide a bottom for the stock.

Additionally, as Bloomberg reports, GE Digital said it would sell a majority stake in its ServiceMax cloud-based field-service software to Silver Lake and create a new industrial Internet-of-things firm with starting annual revenue of $1.2 billion.

As one wise old equity trader said to us on the news of another bottom-caller – “It can’t get any worse… right?” – well it can s …

ECB Confirms It Will End Asset Purchases, Will Reinvest Maturities In Full

As expected, the ECB – which obviously is keeping its rates unchanged – confirmed it would end its asset purchases in December 2018, while clarifying for the first time that it would “continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.”

Also of note, the ECB announced it “expects interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019” which however the market no longer believes, having priced out a full rate hike in 2019.

In any case look for more clarity in 45 minutes when Draghi speaks.

Full statement below:

At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) will end in December 2018. At the same time, the Governing Council is enhancing its forward guidance on reinvestment. Accordingly, the Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample …

In the wake of #MeToo, relationships with co-workers have become even riskier

Tread very carefully at office parties, and during office hours, too.

Economic Report: Jobless claims sink 27,000 to 206,000, erase Thanksgiving surge that now seems a mirage

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits plunged by 27,000 in early December to 206,000, erasing a surge around Thanksgiving that now appears to have been a temporary blip triggered by an earlier-than-usual holiday. In short, layoffs are still really, really low.

London Markets: Attention returns to Brexit turmoil, causing London stocks to hover in the red

London stocks struggled for direction on Thursday as investors re-focused on Brexit after Prime Minister Theresa May survived a leadership challenge.