31Jul2018 Midday Update: Wall Street Trending Upwards After Positive News On Renewed Trade Hopes, US Home Prices March Higher In May, Throttling Sales, Oil Prices Drop On Oversupply Concerns

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

North and South American markets are mixed today. The S&P 500 is up 0.70% while the IPC gains 0.15%. The Bovespa is off 1.26%.

China will strive to hit growth target despite trade tensions with U.S.

China will keep its economic growth within a reasonable range and achieve this year’s target despite challenges, the state-run Xinhua news agency said on Tuesday as a trade war with the United States intensifies.

Industrials boost Wall Street on renewed trade hopes

U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, led by industrial companies, after a report that the U.S. and China were trying to resume negotiations to defuse a trade war between world’s two largest economies.

Pfizer lowers 2018 revenue forecast, increases R&D spend

Pfizer Inc lowered its revenue forecast for this year, blaming the stronger dollar, and increased its planned spending on research and development, as the drugmaker works to launch new drugs to replace declining sales from its established products like Viagra.

Exclusive: Lloyd’s of London reviews operations after losing $2.6 billion and CEO

Lloyd’s of London is reviewing all aspects of its business, including its centuries-old structure, to ensure it is cost-competitive and responsive to both clients and members, especially after Britain leaves the EU, industry sources said.

Chipotle slumps eight percent after Ohio outlet linked to food poisoning complaints

At least 140 people said they had fallen sick after eating at a Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc restaurant in Ohio, sending shares of the burrito chain down 8 percent in early trading.

Pfizer CEO believes U.S. will eliminate rebates on prescription drugs

Pfizer Inc Chief Executive Ian Read said on Tuesday that he believes the Trump administration intends to eliminate rebates on prescription drug purchases, but he does not know how quickly such a policy could be implemented.

UPS partners with LA-based startup to develop electric delivery truck

United Parcel Service Inc said it would partner with a Los Angeles-based company to develop an electric medium-duty delivery truck, as the package delivery company expands its fleet of alternative-fuel vehicles.

Procter & Gamble sales disappoint after prices get a shave

Procter & Gamble Co’s fiscal fourth-quarter sales fell below Wall Street estimates on Tuesday, hurt by lower pricing and weak demand at its units that make Pampers diapers and Gillette shaving products.

CBS CEO Moonves survives board meeting amid misconduct probe

CBS Corp’s board left Chief Executive Leslie Moonves in his post on Monday as it discussed sexual harassment claims against him and took steps to select an outside counsel to lead an independent investigation into the matter, the company said in a statement.

Nomura Has A Very Bad Feeling About Tomorrow’s Market: Here’s Why

Back in the heyday of the Fed’s QE, it had become a trader mantra: buy stocks on POMO days, or when the Fed was actively purchasing bonds in the open market, and generate risk-free, outsized returns. It got to the point where even Goldman advised its clients to frontrun the Fed, as we documented back in October 2010, when Goldman’s trading desk sent out the following note.

On the interplay between the FED and STOCKS: Since Sept 1 – when QE was becoming a mainstream focus – if you only owned S&P on days when the Fed conducted Open Market Operations (in US Treasuries), your cumulative return is over 11%. in addition, 6 of the 7 times when S&P rallied 1% or more, OMO was conducted that day. this compares to a YTD return of 5.8%. the point: you would have outperformed the market 2x by being long on just the 16 days when – this is the important part – you knew in advance that OMO was to be conducted. The market’s performance on the 19 non-OMO days: +70bps.

Many years later, POMO is long forgotten (at least until Trump forces the Fed to relaunch POMO after the next market crash) and instead of Quantiative Easing we have Quantiative Tightening. But unlike back then, few traders care about days when the Fed’s balance sheet shrinks, or anti-POMO.

That may soon change.

As Nomura’s rates strategist George Goncalves writes, “for years macro-mavens the world over would track the size of the Fed’s balance sheet vs equities (notably the SP500 index) to draw the comparison that QE policy was driving stock markets upwards.”

Obviously there was more to it than just “the Fed is driving money into risk assets” but the added liquidity of buying MBS/USTs helped cure other assets from the financial crisis overhang through the “po …

Turley: Paul Manafort Is Probably Going To Jail; Here’s What He’s Up Against

Attorney and legal analyst Jonathan Turley has weighed in on Paul Manafort’s fate, as the first of two trials against the former Trump campaign aide gets underway in Virginia on Monday. Turley suggests that Manafort is “in the worst possible legal position” of having to “run the tables” – beating all 18 counts in his Virginia trial, as well as seven counts in his D.C. trial, while trying Mueller’s team will probably point out that he’s a multimillionaire Washington lobbyist that a jury is unlikely to identify with.

That said, there are many considerations to take into account which Turley describes – including the possibility of a presidential pardon, however if you want to know precisely how screwed Manafort is, read on:

Authored by Jonathan Turley via The Hill

Paul Manafort gambles against all odds at trial

Hunter Thompson once decried the fleeting fortunes of gamblers as “tomorrow’s blinking toads, dumb beasts with no hope.” Paul Manafort is about to discover if he is one of those “blinking toads.” The trial of the former Trump presidential campaign chairman in Virginia, on more than a dozen criminal counts of tax fraud, bank fraud and reporting violations, is about to begin. Rather than take a plea, Manafort has taken the gamble of a trial and the lingering chance of a pardon.

Manafort is in the worst possible legal position of having to “run the tables” by not only beating 18 counts in Virginia but then beating seven counts in a separate trial in Washington. He needs a sweep or nothing. That is quite a gamble and, frankly, Manafort is a bad bet. While he needs to beat all the charges, special counsel

Petition To Block Steve Bannon From Entering U.K. Gathers Support

Thousands of people have signed onto a petition calling on the British government to ban former White House chief strategist Stephen Bannon from entering the country.

Coming shortly after reports that Bannon plans to lead a populist revolt throughout Europe which, if successful, will crush George Soros and his network of open-border NGO’s to smithereens, the petition describes him as a “far-right political figure” and says that he “poses a direct risk” to the country’s security.

“He should not be allowed to enter the UK to spread messages of hate,” the petition reads.

In fact, just a few hundred more and the UK government will be forced to respond to the petition…

“Hi, My Name Is… & I Am A Yield-Curve-Apologist”

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,

I am sure many of you are sick of my yield curve talk. I have been babbling about the curve for far too long. I guess it’s a little understandable as I believe a steepener position will be “the” trade during the next crisis.

Yet there can be no denying that so far, I am wrong and the yield curve keeps going down faster than the plate of drinks at the end of David Hasselhoff’s table after a taping of Britain’s Got Talent.

It’s not an expensive position to carry, so it’s not like I …

Bonds Need to Catch Up on the News

The bond-market tide may be on the turn. After weeks of inaction, 10-year Treasury yields are eyeing 3% once more. Continued momentum in the global economy could lead yields higher still.

July 2018 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Marginally Improves

Written by Steven Hansen

The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index’s headline number of 127.4 up from 127.1 in June.

The Tell: Former Target manager sticks to volatility strategy that made him millions as ‘three-headed horseman’ looms over market

It’s been a good year for Seth Golden. Not 2015-2017 good, but still, the investor, who success story went viral, a year ago claims he’s up about 24% since the beginning of 2018. That’s a far cry from last year, when he nearly doubled his portfolio, and before that, when he reportedly turned $500,000 into $12 million over a five-year stretch.

How investors are moving ICE contractors out of their portfolios

Protesters are taking financial action in response to family separations at the border.

NewsWatch: Is China’s bear market coming for your retirement?

The stock market in the world’s second largest economy has dropped more than 20%.