19Jan2016 Market Update: US Dollar Falling Rapidly, Market Trend Is Down, WTI Trading In The 29's, Analysts Becoming Negative Of Future Market Gains

Written by Gary

US markets opened higher as expected and the morning dip has extended its slide into the afternoon. Markets remain solidly in the green, but if the falling trend continues, we will see negative numbers before the close. Buying the dip?

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money
	North and South American markets are mixed today. The IPC is up 0.31% while the S&P 500 gains 0.08%. The Bovespa is off 1.06%.

Technically speaking, the U.S. markets have broken down to start 2016. In the process, each major benchmark has violated significant support, opening the path to potentially material longer-term downside. Full Story

Traders Corner – Health of the Market

Index	Description	Current Value
Investors.com Members Sentiment:	% Bullish (the balance is Bearish)	43%
CNN’s Fear & Greed Index	Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear	12%
Investors Intelligence sets the breath	Above 50 bullish	22.6%
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO)	anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.	-78.75
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R )	$NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% – 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.	16.22%
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA)	Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash.	25.82%
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX)	In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction.	27.00%
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX)	ten year note index value	20.36
StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY)	As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy	71.78
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA )	Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors	9,337

What Is Moving the Markets

Here are the headlines moving the markets.
	IMF cuts global growth forecast as China slows WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecasts for the third time in less than a year on Tuesday, as new figures from Beijing showed that the Chinese economy grew at its slowest rate in a quarter of a century in 2015.
	Oil rebounds on record Chinese demand, oversupply caps gains NEW YORK (Reuters) – Brent crude oil prices rebounded about 3 percent on Tuesday from 12-years lows after data showed Chinese oil demand likely hit a record high in 2015, but the recovery was not expected to last amid warnings that the market would stay oversupplied this year.
	Ex-drug CEO Shkreli plans to replace lawyers NEW YORK (Reuters) – Former drug executive Martin Shkreli plans to hire new legal counsel to represent him against U.S. charges that he defrauded investors at his former hedge fund and a pharmaceutical company he headed, Shkreli’s current lawyers said.
	BofA earnings beat tempered by concern about weak oil prices (Reuters) – Bank of America Corp joined other lenders in expressing concern about weak oil prices after the No. 2 U.S. bank by assets reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, helped by a drop in costs and revenue rises in most of its businesses.
	Areva says won $300 million in U.S. uranium enrichment contracts in 2015 PARIS (Reuters) – French nuclear group Areva won several long-term contracts last year from four U.S. utilities for uranium enrichment services worth more than $300 million, the group said on Tuesday.
	Tiffany cuts jobs as sales lose sparkle (Reuters) – Upscale jeweler Tiffany & Co reported a sharp decline in holiday season sales and cut jobs as it struggles with weak spending by tourists in its showpiece U.S. stores.
	China’s growth hits quarter-century low, raising hopes of more stimulus SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s economy grew at its weakest pace in a quarter of a century last year, raising hopes Beijing would cushion the slowdown with more stimulus policies, which in turn prompted a rally on the country’s rollercoaster share markets.
	Wall Street holds onto gains after China data (Reuters) – Wall Street rose on Tuesday morning, bouncing off a steep selloff on Friday and as investors were relieved that China’s growth rate did not slow more than expected.
	Apple makes progress on gender, racial diversity (Reuters) – Apple Inc has made progress on boosting gender and racial diversity in its U.S. workforce, a regulatory document filed by the iPhone maker showed.
	has the Fed any credibility left at all????? I see a decline in inflation breakevens and the continuing flattening of the yield curve as being a very worrisome signal about the FOMC’s credibility. There is distinct lack in the Fed’s ability and/or willingness to achieve its mandated objectives. If you analyze the five or ten-year breakeven (the difference in yields between a standard (nominal) 5 or 10-year Treasury and an inflation-protected 5 or 10-year Treasury (called TIPS)). The, the five-year/five-year forward breakeven is defined to be the difference between the 10-year breakeven and the five-year breakeven. What these spreads imply are investors’ best forecast about what inflation will average 5 to 10 years from now, as well as the inflation risk premium over a 5-10 year horizon five to ten years from now – that is, the extra yield over that horizon that investors demand for bearing the inflation risk embedded in standard Treasuries. Both risk premium and forward inflation expectations show that the Fed are way off their 2% annualized inflation target. This decline is a troubling signal about FOMC credibility. Simply put, the FOMC has pledged to deliver 2% inflation over the long run. If investors see this pledge as credible, their best forecast of inflation over five to ten year horizon should also be 2%. The way the yield curve is now shaped and the decline in the breakevens show that investors are demanding less compensation (in terms of yield) for bearing inflation risk. But Treasuries are only a better hedge than TIPS against macroeconomic risk if inflation turns out to be low when economic activity turns out to be low. The decline and flattening of the yield curve reflects investors are assigning increasing probability to a scenario in which …
	Stocks Slammed Into Red, Give Up China Stimulus Hope Gains Well that escalated quickly… US equity markets have given up all their “bad news is good news” – “moar stimulus please” hope gains… as even AAPL is plunging despite Goldman’s exuberance…
	Global Stocks Higher, But Concerns Remain for Energy Sector Global stocks rebounded Tuesday, but a renewed decline in U.S. energy prices and shares highlighted ongoing investor concerns about the troubled sector.
	Oil Rebounding as Traders Assess the End of Iran Sanctions U.S. oil prices are rebounding and global oil is adding to gains, reversing a dip that came on the first session of U.S. trading since the lifting of sanctions on Iran that could increase its supply into a flooded market.
	High Court to Weigh Limits on Insider Trading Prosecutions The Supreme CourtÂ took up a caseÂ that could test the government’s ability to police insider trading on confidential tips that come through a network of friends or family.
	London Markets: FTSE 100 nabs biggest daily gain in nearly a month Stocks in the U.K. rise along with other global markets, as slowing growth in China spurs the prospect of further stimulus for the world’s second-largest economy.
	The Wall Street Journal: Supreme Court takes up appeal that tests insider-trading prosecutions The Supreme Court on Tuesday took up a case that could test the government’s ability to police insider trading on confidential tips that come through a network of friends or family.