Written by Gary
Well, so much for my guesses this today. Averages started climbing right out of the stating gate and have risen almost 2.5% so far. Oil could be the main factor as WTI has risen 2 points pushing the markets upward as it goes. Nothing has changed in the last week so the rise in oil has become suspect of manipulation and I have become especially nervous of a ‘snap-back’ to occur at any moment.
WTI oil could rise to 45 before encountering resistance, so you are kind of on your own here. All guesses welcome.
Here is the current market situation from CNN Money | |
 | North and South American markets are sharply higher today with shares in Brazil leading the region. The Bovespa is up 4.07% while Mexico’s IPC is up 2.58% and U.S.’s S&P 500 is up 2.37%. |
Traders Corner – Health of the Market
| Index | Description | Current Value |
| Investors.com Members Sentiment: | % Bullish (the balance is Bearish) | 51% |
| CNN’s Fear & Greed Index | Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear | 7% |
| Investors Intelligence sets the breath | Above 50 bullish | 22.9% |
| StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) | anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. | -46.36 |
| StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) | $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% – 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. | 18.88% |
| StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) | Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. | 32.93% |
| StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) | In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. | 30.80% |
| StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) | ten year note index value | 21.77 |
| StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) | As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy | 75.59 |
| StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) | Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors | 10,229 |
What Is Moving the Markets
| Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
| August U.S. auto sales seen down 3.9 percent: JD Power/LMC DETROIT (Reuters) – This week’s fall in equities markets is not expected to have a major impact on August U.S. auto sales, industry consultants J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said on Thursday. |
| Google rejects ‘unfounded’ EU antitrust charges of market abuse BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Google , the world’s most popular Internet search engine, rejected on Thursday European Union antitrust charges that it abused its market power, saying they lacked any economic or legal basis. |
| USDJPY Explodes 500 Pips From Monday LowsWondering why the world’s risk assets are all exploding higher… wonder no more. JPY – funding currency of choice for many leveraged traders – has been monkey-hammered 500 pips lower against the USD in the last few days with the last 24 hours, since Kuroda unleashed his comedy gold last night, seeing another 150 pips surge… Interesting retracement levels… from the post-FOMC peak to Monday crash lows…
Charts: Bloomberg |
| Let the Bad Times Roll for Dollar GeneralDollar General shares are on sale after the stock-market rout, despite being a relative beneficiary of a possible economic slowdown. |
| For Albert Edwards This Is The One Definitive Measure That “We Are Now In A Bear Market”Over the years, Socgen’s Albert Edwards has repeatedly expressed his skepticism of both the economy and the market (the longest US equity “bull market” since 1945) both propped up by generous central banks injecting liquidity by the tens of trillions (at this point nobody really knows the number now that the ‘black box’ that is China has entered the global “plunge protection” game) and yet never did he have as “conclusive” a call as he does today. As the following note reveals, when looking at one particular indicator, Edwards is now convinced: ‘we are now in a bear market.” First, Edwards looks east, where he finds nothing short of China’s central bank succumbing to the “wealth effect” preservation pressures of its western peers:
We disagree modestly with this assessment because as we described first on Tuesday, the RRR-cut had much more to do with unlocking $100 billion in much needed funding so that China could continue to intervene in the FX market by dumping a comparable amount of US Treasurys since its August 11 deva … |
| Wall Street extends gains after strong GDP data (Reuters) – U.S. stocks extended their rally on Thursday, raising hopes that the worst was behind the market, after further evidence that the U.S. economy was on a solid footing. |
| Silver Is SoaringShortly before 10amET, amid USD strength, futures prices for Copper, Crude, and Silver suddenly started spiking higher…
Gold is also getting a lift…
Something is going on in the commodity markets… ED:(called manilipulation)
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| U.S. second-quarter GDP growth revised sharply higher to 3.7 percent WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter on solid domestic demand, showing fairly strong momentum that could still allow the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates this year. |
| A Nation Divided – Northeast Happiest In 8 Years As MidWest Comfort CollapsesPresented with little comment, aside to ask why is Bloomberg “Consumer Comfort” for The NorthEast region at its highest in 8 years, when The Midwest region’s “Comfort” is plunging to its lowest since Nove 2014?
Must be the weather? Or The Fat Cats? Chart: Bloomberg |
| Tiffany forecasts unexpected decline in full-year profit (Reuters) – Luxury jeweler Tiffany & Co forecast an unexpected decline in full-year profit and said earnings fell about 16 percent again in the second quarter as higher costs, mainly on innovating new products, overshadowed a recovery in sales. |
| S&P 500 Surges 5.9% – Biggest 2-Day Spike Since Fed Announced QE1The 5.9% rise in the last 2 days is the largest for the S&P 500 since March 11th 2009 – when The Fed announced QE1…
In October it was Bullard, this time it’s Dudley…
As an addenda, we note that a ‘death cross’ is likely to occur in the next 2 days for the S&P for the first time in 4 years. Trade accordingly… |
| Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Contraction Continues in August 2015
Of the four regional manufacturing surveys released to date for August, one shows weak manufacturing growth, one shows no growth, and two are in contraction. |
| Kansas City Fed Survey Misses For 8th Straight Month – Flashes Recessionary SignalThe last two times the Kansas City Fed survey was this low, the US was in recession.The KC Fed survey has missed expected for eight straight months, falling to -9 in August from -7 (missing the -4 estimate). Across the board, underlying components were ugly with Shipments collapsing, Order backlogs echoing earlier surveys in demise, New Orders tumbling, and Prices received crashing.
But still the mainstream sees “no recession imminent” Charts: Bloomberg |
| Ukraine reaches ‘win-win’ deal with creditors on $18 billion debt KIEV (Reuters) – Ukraine reached what its finance minister called a “win-win” deal with its largest group of creditors to ease repayments on its $18 billion debt, winning breathing space for an economy drained by the cost of fighting with pro-Russian separatists. |
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