20Apr2015 Pre-Market Commentary: Premarket Futures Up, Oil Off Last Nights High, U.S. Dollar Trending Up, Markets Expected To Open Higher

Here is the current market situation from CNN Money

European markets are broadly higher today with shares in Germany leading the region. The DAX is up 1.49% while London’s FTSE 100 is up 0.57% and France’s CAC 40 is up 0.49%.

March 2015 CFNAI Super Index Continues to Show USA Economic Slowing

Written by Steven Hansen

The economy was growing even slower last month based on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3 month moving (3MA) average – and continues to grow below the historical trend rate of growth but well above levels associated with recessions.

HSBC to look at best place for HQ when ‘mist lifts’ on regulation

LONDON (Reuters) – HSBC Holdings Plc will look at whether to move its headquarters from London once the regulatory environment becomes clearer, the chairman of Europe’s biggest bank said on Monday.

Japan, U.S. in for tough bilateral trade talks over rice, autos

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan and the United States continued the second of two days of tough trade talks on Monday that could pave the way for a broader trans-Pacific agreement, although Tokyo shrugged off expectations of a bilateral deal in time for a summit next week.

Canada’s Own Pipeline Problem

The proposed Northern Gateway, part of a Canadian effort to boost oil exports to Asia, has hit opposition by native groups who say it threatens their environment and culture.

What Secular Stagnation? Oh, This Secular Stagnation

In a recent blog post, Citadel’s latest trader and part-time Brookings blogger, Ben Bernanke, asks “does the U.S. economy face secular stagnation? I am skeptical, and the sources of my skepticism go beyond the fact that the U.S. economy looks to be well on the way to full employment today.”We, on the other hand are skeptical of Bernanke’s skepticism, for one simple reason: reality.

Below is a chart progression of the past 6 years of the FOMC’s own “potential real GDP growth” estimates. It shows, without a trace of doubt, that even with the Fed’s perpetual overoptimism, the US is now clearly in a phase of secular stagnation, one from which there is no escape until the issue which Bernanke dares not mention, i.e., a record debt overhang, is somehow resolved.

Here is BofA’s commentary:

There has been a slow capitulation that the concept of normality has changed after this recession. Forecasts for potential growth have been slashed along with expectations for the equilibrium Fed funds rate. The consensus, based on the Blue Chip survey, has taken down its forecast for potential GDP growth from 2.8% pre-recession to 2.6% in 2010 and 2.3% today. The FOMC has similarly revision down its long-run GDP forecast.

And visually:

Morgan Stanley Profit Jumps on Higher Trading Revenue

Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley reported a much stronger-than-expected rise in first-quarter profit, boosted by higher revenue from trading bonds and equities.

ECB’s Nowotny says impact of any Greek exit less now than before: TV

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Were Greece to leave the euro, it would not have the same impact on the euro zone as it would have had two years ago, an ECB policymaker said on Monday, urging the Greek government to provide “numbers” to qualify for further aid.

Morgan Stanley profit jumps on higher trading revenue

(Reuters) – Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley reported a much stronger-than-expected rise in first-quarter profit, boosted by higher revenue from trading bonds and equities.

Japan’s Daiichi Sankyo launches up to $3.6 billion stake sale in India’s Sun Pharma

MUMBAI (Reuters) – Japan’s Daiichi Sankyo Company Ltd is selling its stake worth up to $3.6 billion in Indian drugmaker Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd , a person directly involved in the deal said on Monday.
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Key Events In The Coming Week

While this week sees the peak of Q1 earnings season, it will be a generally quiet week on the macro economic front for both EM and DM, with the emphasis on the latest seasonally adjusted manufacturing sentiment surveys, US durables and Japan trade.

It’s a quiet start this morning in Europe with just German PPI due. It’s no less different in the US this afternoon with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index the only print.

The German ZEW survey will be of most focus in the European timezone on Tuesday and it remains quiet in the US with no data due out.

Things pick up on Wednesday however and we start in Asia where we get trade data due out of Japan and also inflation data out of Australia. In Europe, industrial orders and retail sales are due in Italy, consumer confidence is due out of the Euro-area and in the UK we should get the BoE minutes. Focus across the pond on Wednesday in the US will be on existing home sales and the FHFA house price index.

Thursday is flash PMI day for April where we get manufacturing readings out of Japan and China in the early morning, followed by manufacturing, services and composite prints for the Euro area, France and Germany. Business and manufacturing confidence is also due in France, while in the UK we get retail sales data. In the US on Thursday, jobless claims, new home sales, Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity and also the flash manufacturing PMI are all due.

We close out the week on Friday in Europe with the German IFO survey for April. In the US meanwhile, durable and capital goods orders are scheduled. With it being a fairly quiet week data wise, US earnings season will be of much focus with the calendar ramping up as 147 S&P 500 companies are due to report including Google, Facebook, P&G and Amazon. European earnings season will also kick into gear. Of course Greece will also continue to be front and centre with the Eurogroup meeting scheduled for Friday in Riga.

Oil falls on strong dollar and as Saudi output remains near record high

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices fell towards $62 a barrel on Monday on a strong dollar and as Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said production would stay around 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in April.

Futures bounce back with eyes on China, Morgan Stanley

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stock index futures rose on Monday, following a sharp decline in the previous session, as Chinese steps to stimulate its slowing economy and earnings including those from Morgan Stanley lured money back into equities.

Raytheon to Buy Cybersecurity Firm Websense in $1.9 Billion Deal

U.S. arms maker Raytheon Co said it would buy cybersecurity provider Websense Inc from private equity firm Vista Equity Partners LLC for $1.9 billion, including debt.

Halliburton warns of weakness in North America, international operations

(Reuters) – Halliburton Co warned of headwinds in its international operations and pricing pressure for its oilfield services in North America, its largest market, as an extended slump in oil prices continues to force drillers to slash spending.

Frontrunning: April 20

Just How Leaky Is the Fed? More Than You May Realize (BBG)

Republican Presidential Candidates Spar Over Party’s Future (WSJ)

Euro Area Seeks Greece Roadmap to May Agreement (BBG)

The $320 Billion Bogey Needed to Placate U.S. Stock Market Bulls (BBG)

Seeking Obamacare alternative, Republicans eye tax credits (Reuters)

Gundlach Says Market Hasn’t Seen Full Impact of Fed Moves (BBG)

EU meets on migrant crisis as shipwreck corpses brought ashore (Reuters)

Canada’s Own Oil Pipeline Problem (WSJ)

For short-sellers in U.S. stocks, the agony just piles on (Reuters)

Carlyle to Close Two Mutual Funds in Liquid Alternatives Setba …

China To The Rescue: Global Equity Market Rebound After Latest Chinese Easing

It is only fitting that the next business day following a headline that “Global Futures Slide China Tumbles On Short Selling Boost” we would see China, in an apparent panic, not only cut its RRR by 100 bps to 18.5% – far more than expected and the most since 2008 – but, more importantly, hinted that the Friday regulatory decision to encourage short sales and tighter margin rules on “umbrella trusts” was in no way meant to pop that the Chinese stock bubble, ridiculous as it may be.

As we reported over the weekend, “in a statement published on Saturday evening, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said measures rolled out on Friday, including tightening rules on margin lending and promoting the use of short selling, aren’t aimed at clamping down on a red-hot market. The measures are about “maintaining the healthy development of the market,” the CSRC said in the statement. “They aren’t intended to encourage short selling, let alone depressing the market…the market shouldn’t over-interpret the measures,” it added.”

In other words, the Chinese moves were far less concerned with the economy, where as we showed if the US housing “lesson” is any indication, then the Chinese economy is already in a recession…

Turnover explosion at Shanghai stock exchange has too many zeros for software

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s stock trading fever has made the Shanghai Stock Exchange the world’s biggest in terms of turnover, surpassing the New York Stock Exchange, but the explosion in volumes has exceeded the ability of the exchange’s software to report it.

China makes big cut in bank reserve requirement to fight slowdown

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s central bank on Sunday cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, the second industry-wide cut in two months, adding more liquidity to the world’s second-biggest economy to help spur bank lending and combat slowing growth.

European shares up after China stimulus fails to lift Asia

LONDON (Reuters) – Global stock markets had a mixed start to the week on Monday and core bond yields fell as investors juggled Chinese steps to stimulate its slowing economy and a proposed telecoms deal in Europe with growing worries Greece may default.

Morgan Stanley Profits Surge 60% On Trading And Wealth Management Performance

Morgan Stanley reported a better-than-forecast 60% surge in first quarter earnings, bolstered by strong trading results, particularly in equities, and improving margins at its wealth management division.

Epoch of Belief, Epoch of Incredulity (15): Squeaky Bum Time

Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com

Central bankers, politicians and English football managers are all experiencing a strong feeling of “Squeaky Bum Time”, as the Footie season and global QE run into injury time.

Read more …

Talks with Greece have gained momentum but still long way from target: IMF

BERLIN (Reuters) – Global lenders’ negotiations with Greece, which have been moving at a crawl recently, have gained some momentum but remained a long way from the finish line, the International Monetary Fund’s European head told a German newspaper.

Asia slips, China stocks erase stimulus-triggered gains

TOKYO (Reuters) – An index of Asian shares slipped on Monday and Chinese stock markets erased earlier sharp gains made after China’s central bank boosted banks’ lending power by reducing their reserve requirements.
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