Written by Gary
Markets are trading higher, but in a sea-saw sideways fashion on falling volume. Oil and gold have melted up fractionally as the U.S. Dollar falls fractionally, just enough for investors to wonder if this is a trend or a market consolidation.
At the start of the afternoon session tension are higher than usual because of the Greek issues, Modestly improving existing home sales and worries of a strong dollar.
The possibility of new markets highs is very tantalizing, but it doesn’t appear to be happening today.
Here is the current market situation from CNN Money
North and South American markets are mixed. The S&P 500 is higher by 0.24%, while the Bovespa is leading the IPC lower. They are down 0.54% and 0.11% respectively.
Traders Corner – Health of the Market
|Investors.com Members Sentiment:||% Bullish (the balance is Bearish)||64|
|CNN’s Fear & Greed Index||Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear||48|
|Investors Intelligence sets the breath||Above 50 bullish||58.6|
|StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO)||anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.||+23.31|
|StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R)||$NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% – 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.||58.51%|
|StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA)||Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash.||62.31|
|StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX)||In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction.||71.80|
|StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX)||ten year note index value||19.30|
|StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY)||As long as the consumer discretionary holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy||76.77|
|StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA)||Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors||11,071|
What Is Moving the Markets
|Here are the headlines moving the markets.|
In What Is Now A Daily Tradition, The Market Breaks
A post-open pump and dump can only mean one thing…
DuPont investors to vote on Trian demands on May 13
(Reuters) – DuPont , embroiled in a proxy war with activist investor Trian Fund Management LP for board seats, said it would hold its annual shareholder meeting on May 13.
Schlumberger sees 10-15 percent drop in industry E&P spending in 2015
(Reuters) – Schlumberger Ltd, the world’s No.1 oilfield services provider, said it expects the oil and gas industry’s spending internationally on exploration and production to drop by 10-15 percent in 2015.
February 2015 Existing Home Sales Improved “Modestly” and Remains In a Long Term Improvement Trend
Written by Steven Hansen
The headlines for existing home sales say that sales “increased modestly”. Our analysis of the unadjusted data shows the unadjusted three month rolling averages for sales accelerated, remains in positive territory – and has been in a long term improvement trend even though being in contraction most of 2014.
Deutsche’s Three “What If” Scenarios: What Happens After The Grexit
As reproted previously, the biggest event of the day will be the meeting between Greek PM Tsipras and Germany’s Merkel, which – with Greece having only days of access to liquidity left (and a negative solvency position already as confirmed by Tsipras’ letter to Merkel saying it will be unable to repay its near-term debts) – means the fate of Greece will be decided over next day, one way or another.
So while we await today’s 6:00 PM GMT press conference, here is a “what if” analysis created by Deutsche Bank laying out three scenarios on the short and long-term consequences of a Grexit.
Here is Deutsche Bank
What if we are wrong? Grexit scenarios
We believe that ultimately, even at the cost of capital controls, Grexit will be avoided. But what if we are wrong? With the risk of Grexit, in our view the highest since the crisis began in late 2009 and European patience wearing thin, we engage in some “what if” analysis on the short and long-term consequences of Grexit under three scenarios.
Back in January we have looked at (i) channels of contagion, (ii) peripherals’ vulnerabilities and (ii) ex-post tools to contain contagion11. There we highlighted that in a Grexit scenario, direct channels are not the main source of concern. Indeed, the private sector direct exposure to Greece has been scaled down dr …
Buffett tells foreign investors good profits to be made in U.S
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Berkshire Hathaway Inc Chief Executive Officer and Chairman Warren Buffett said on Monday the U.S. economy and investment climate are a tailwind for his companies’ success and encouraged foreign investors to jump in too.
Stocks up as dollar adds to losses, oil gains
NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stocks edged higher on Monday following strong gains in major indexes the previous week, as investors assessed gyrations in the dollar and crude prices and their impact on equities.
ChemChina to buy into Italian tire maker Pirelli in $7.7 billion deal
MILAN (Reuters) – China National Chemical Corp (ChemChina) is to buy into Pirelli, the world’s fifth-largest tire maker, in a 7.1 billion-euro ($7.7 billion) deal that will put the 143-year-old Italian company in Chinese hands.
Existing Home Sales Miss (Again); Weather & “Unsuitably High Price Levels” Blamed
Following January’s disastrous dive in Existing Home Sales (which must be weather, right? Nope!) to a SAAR 4.82 million homes, February (with its even worse weather) saw a 4th month of missed expectations with a 4.88mm print against 4.90 mm expectations. As always, weather was blamed – which is odd given that the only drop in sales that occurred happened in The Northeast which accounts for just 12% of total transactions. Perhaps more worrisome is NAR’s Larry Yun noting “unsuitable price levels” as a reason for weak sales due to low inventories (despite inventories rising 1.6% in February?!). May be it’s time to blame The Fed… for not creating more rich people to buy more houses…
Another month, another miss…
As Home Prices remain higher YoY….
*FEB. MEDIAN HOME PRICE RISES 7.5% FROM YEAR AGO TO $202,600
Northeast sales fells 6.5% MoM, The West rose 5.7% MoM with the The Midwest flat and South up 1.9% MoM.
NAR’s Larry Yun explains…
Wall St. Is Mixed, With Focus on Greece
Leaders of Greece and a major creditor, Germany, were meeting in Europe to discuss reforms.
Biotech Behemoth Gilead In Trouble After Flagship Drug Related Death
Gilead is, by far, the largest income producer in the Nasdaq Biotech Index and today’s warning from the Biotech behemoth which has dragged the stock down 2.8% this morning, is weighing heavily on the exponentially-expanding index. As Bloomberg reports, GILD said nine patients taking its hepatitis C drugs Harvoni or Sovaldi along with the heart treatment amiodarone developed abnormally slow heartbeats and one died of cardiac arrest. Now, of course, it’s “just” 9 patients… so analysts will spin the diversification. The Nasdaq Biotech Index now trades with a P/E of 50x, with over 80% of the entire sector’s earnings concentrated in just 5 companies… and the biggest of all just warned on the drugs that make up half its revenues!
Gilead is ‘it’…
So, as Bloomberg reports, when two of its drugs which account for half its revenues face a warning of death… perhaps it’s time to reflect on the exponentiality of this lottery ticket index…
Carlyle CEO says strong U.S. dollar won’t deter long term investors
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The strong U.S. dollar may temporarily deter some companies from investing in the United States, but the country will continue to attract foreign investment, the Carlyle Group co-chief executive David Rubenstein said on Monday.
Merrill Lynch fined $2.5 million in Massachusetts
BOSTON (Reuters) – Massachusetts’ top securities regulator on Monday said that he has fined Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit $2.5 million for failing to stick to its own compliance rules.
Illiquid Corporate Bond Market Will End In “Very Unpleasant Fashion”
Yesterday, we pointed out that the industry is getting increasingly nervous about the possibility that a lack of liquidity in bond markets may indeed be the catalyst for the next collapse. Thanks to new regulations ostensibly designed to, among other things, bolster capital cushions and keep the market safe from the perceived perils of prop trading, banks are more reluctant to facilitate trading. This comes at the absolute worst possible time. Borrowing costs are so low that the Fed is basically daring companies not to take advantage, so while issuance is high, secondary market liquidity is non-existent meaning, effectively, that the door to the theatre is getting smaller and smaller and if someone yells “fire,” getting out is going to prove decisively difficult.
Here’s more from the BIS:
Itineraries: Companies Adapt to Uber and Lyft Rides on the Expense Report
A growing number of business travelers are choosing ride-hailing services over taxis and car services, and employers are racing to catch up.
Another “Worst Since Lehman” Moment: 70% Of The “Developed” World Has Inflation Less Than 0.5%
Things are going from bad to worse not only for the “Chinese growth is stable at 7%” but the “US is decoupling from the rest of the world” false narratives. But while we have been pounding the table on both for years, only last week did the Fed finally admit US growth was slowing down rapidly (and will slow down much more once the 0.3% Atlanta Fed GDP forecast becomes mainstream), but it is China that will be the wild card.
Overnight Bank of America finally acknowledged just this “wildcard” and not only cut its outlook on Chinese stocks to “neutral”, but had this to say:
February 2015 CFNAI Super Index Shows USA Economy Slowing
Written by Steven Hansen
The economy was growing slower last month based on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3 month moving (3MA) average – and is now growing below the historical trend rate of growth.
US Economic Activity Worst Since 2011 Amid Major Downward Revisions, Chicago Fed Signals
January’s “optimistic” +0.13 print for CFNAI was revised drastically lower to -0.10 and now February prints -0.11 against an expectation of +0.10 for the 3rd miss in a row – the worst run since Q3 2011. The Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator (which has gained in prominence in recent months) indicates a 3rd month of “below trend growth,” for the first time since June 2011.
Saudi Production Comments Send WTI Sliding To $45 Handle
Following Friday’s manic quad-witching melt-up in oil (and everything else), the exuberance (surprise surprise) is fading as fundamental reality is slapped back onto the face of the energy complex by Saudi Arabia. As Reuters reports, Saudi oil minister Ali al Naimi also said the kingdom was now pumping a record high 10 million barrels per day (bpd), and would only cut if non-OPEC countries cut production. The ‘supply’ weakness in crude has been tempered somewhat by a tumbling USD (EUR surging) for now (and also by news from Sinopec of major capex cuts).
As Reuters reports,
Frontrunning: March 23
Saudis keep on pumping, oil prices keep on slumping (Reuters)
Tenet Healthcare Nearing Deal to Buy United Surgical Partners (WSJ)
Dizzying Pre-IPO Tech Values Spurred by Rush of Hedge-Fund Money (BBG)
Russia threatens to aim nuclear missiles at Denmark ships if it joins NATO shield (Reuters)
Torrent of Cash Exits Eurozone (WSJ)
Draghi Cheerleads for Euro-Area Economy as Greek Risk Looms (BBG)
Fortescue Mines for More Financing Options (WSJ)
Topix Charts Evoke Calm Before ’13 Rout as Momentum Gains (BBG)
How Adidas Aims to Get Its Cool Back (WSJ)
Biogen shortens name, expands ambitions in Alzheimer’s, ALS (
Earnings Summary for Today
leading Stock Positions
Current Commodity Prices
Commodities are powered by Investing.com
Current Currency Crosses
The Forex Quotes are powered by Investing.com.
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Leave a Reply