Written by Lance Roberts, Clarity Financial
A Conservative Strategy For Long-Term Investors
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There are 4-steps to allocation changes based on 25% reduction increments. As noted in the chart above a 100% allocation level is equal to 60% stocks. I never advocate being 100% out of the market as it is far too difficult to reverse course when the market changes from a negative to a positive trend. Emotions keep us from taking the correct action.
Trump This
As noted last week, the “narrative” that has been driving the market higher has been one of hopes for further “Fed easing” and a resolution to the “trade war.” With the Fed now out of the way for now, the risk falls on Trump for the “trade war.”
As noted in the main missive above, he appears to be strategically positioning himself to negotiate a deal and get it out of the way ahead of the election. However, he is such a volatile person there is no way we can safely assume that will indeed be the outcome. If he blows up the meeting, the markets could well see a 20% decline fairly quickly.
In the short-term, as shown in the 401k plan chart above, both of our signals are triggering a “sell signal” with the markets extremely extended above their long-term bullish trend line. Previous episodes have resulted in a short-term correction.
Therefore, for now, we continue to remain underweight equities as the markets remain trapped within a fairly broad range. This makes it difficult to do anything other than just wait things out.
It will be important the market continues to rally next week. However, the overall action this past week was not great. Despite the rally this week, the downside risk is elevated, so we are maintaining underweight holdings for now. If you haven’t taken any actions as of late, it is not a bad time to do so.
- If you are overweight equities – Hold current positions but remain aware of the risk. Take some profits, and rebalance risk to some degree if you have not done so already.
- If you are underweight equities or at target – rebalance risks and hold positioning for now.
If you need help after reading the alert; do not hesitate to contact me.
401k Plan Manager Beta Is Live
Become a RIA PRO subscriber and be part of our “Break It Early Testing Associate” group by using CODE: 401 (You get your first 30-days free)
The code will give you access to the entire site during the 401k-BETA testing process, so not only will you get to help us work out the bugs on the 401k plan manager, you can submit your comments about the rest of the site as well.
We are building models specific to company plans. So, if you would like to see your company plan included specifically, send me the following:
- Name of the company
- Plan Sponsor
- A print out of your plan choices. (Fund Symbol and Fund Name)
I have gotten quite a few plans, so keep sending them and I will include as many as we can.
If you would like to offer our service to your employees at a deeply discounted corporate rate, please contact me.
Current 401-k Allocation Model
The 401k plan allocation plan below follows the K.I.S.S. principle. By keeping the allocation extremely simplified it allows for better control of the allocation and a closer tracking to the benchmark objective over time. (If you want to make it more complicated you can, however, statistics show that simply adding more funds does not increase performance to any great degree.)
Model performance is based on a two-asset model of stocks and bonds relative to the weighting changes made each week in the newsletter. This is strictly for informational and educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any reason. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Use at your own risk and peril.
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