by Erik McCurdy, Prometheus Market Insight
The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.
The index closed moderately lower today, retreating from recent highs of the uptrend from November. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.
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We are 23 sessions into the beta phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on April 13. The beta high (BH) may have formed on June 19, although we would need to see additional weakness to confirm that development. The magnitude and duration of the current beta phase rally reconfirms the current bullish translation and favors additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through June 26.
Last STCL: April 13, 2017
Cycle Duration: 47 sessions
Cycle Translation: Bullish
Next STCL Window: Now through June 26.
Setup Status: No active setups.
Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
Signal Status: No active signals.
Stop Level: None active.
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Short-term Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent short-term high at 2,433 would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close well below uptrend support near 2,380 would signal the likely start of a new downtrend and predict additional losses.
The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).
US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses
The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.
Yields closed moderately lower today, moving down toward previous lows of the downtrend from March. Technical indicators are slightly bearish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the decline.
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We are 5 sessions into the decline phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle high (STCH) on June 13. The alpha low (AL) may have formed on June 14, although we would need to see additional strength to confirm that development. The quick reversal reconfirms the current bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is from July 5 to July 25, with our best estimate being in the July 11 to July 17 range.
Last STCH: June 13, 2017
Cycle Duration: 5 sessions
Cycle Translation: Bearish
Next STCH Window: July 5 to July 25; best estimate in the July 11 to July 17 range.
Setup Status: No active setups.
Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
Signal Status: No active signals.
Stop Level: None active.
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Short-term Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above downtrend resistance at 2.28% would predict a return to the previous short-term high at 2.41%.
Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low at 2.13% would reconfirm the downtrend from March and predict additional losses.
The bearish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).
US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses
The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.
The index closed slightly higher today, reacting further off of previous lows of the downtrend from January. Technical indicators are neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that direction is in question with a slight upward bias.
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We are 10 sessions into the rally phase of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on June 7. The magnitude and duration of the last alpha phase decline reconfirms the current bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from June 30 to July 17, with our best estimate being in the July 6 to July 12 range.
Last STCL: June 7, 2017
Cycle Duration: 10 sessions
Cycle Translation: Bearish
Next STCL Window: June 30 to July 17; best estimate in the July 6 to July 12 range.
Setup Status: No active setups.
Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
Signal Status: No active signals.
Stop Level: None active.
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Short-term Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A close well above congestion resistance in the 97.50 area would predict a move up toward the previous short-term high at 99.56.
Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the recent low at 96.59 would reconfirm the downtrend from January and predict additional losses.
Both scenarios are equally likely.
Gold Daily Chart Analyses
The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.
Gold closed moderately lower today, moving down to a new short-term low below previous highs of the uptrend from December. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, favoring a continuation of the decline from early June.
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We are 10 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on May 9. Cycle translation is in question. A quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally that moves up to new short-term highs would reconfirm the current bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. Alternatively, an extended beta phase decline that moves well below the last STCL at 1,216 would signal the likely transition to a bearish translation. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through June 21.
Last STCL: May 9, 2017
Cycle Duration: 29 sessions
Cycle Translation: Bullish
Next STCL Window: Now through June 21.
Setup Status: No active setups.
Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
Signal Status: No active signals.
Stop Level: None active.
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Short-term Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 1,298 would reconfirm the uptrend from December and forecast additional gains.
Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would predict a move down toward congestion support in the 1,220 area.
The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).
Oil Daily Chart Analyses
The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest intermediate-term forecast and for long-term outlooks see the latest long-term forecast.
Oil closed sharply lower today, moving down to a new low for the downtrend from February. Technical indicators are extremely bearish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the decline.
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We are 16 sessions into the beta phase decline of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on May 5. The magnitude and duration of the current beta phase decline reconfirms the current bearish translation and favors additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through June 21.
Last STCL: May 5, 2017
Cycle Duration: 31 sessions
Cycle Translation: Bearish
Next STCL Window: Now through June 21.
Setup Status: No active setups.
Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
Signal Status: No active signals.
Stop Level: None active.
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Short-term Outlook
Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the previous short-term high at 51.47 would predict a move up toward congestion resistance in the 54 area.
Bearish Scenario: A close below current levels would reconfirm the downtrend from February and forecast additional losses.
The bearish scenario is highly likely (>80% probable).
