Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666
News posted last week about economic effects related to the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some articles are summarized here. We cover the latest economic data, especially the prospects for an infrastructure bill, stimulus checks, government funding, the Fed, the latest employment data, housing market reports, mortgage delinquencies & forbearance, travel, layoffs, lockdowns, and schools, as well as infrastructure and GDP. The bulk of the news is from the U.S., with a few more articles from overseas at the end. (Picture below is morning rush hour in downtown Chicago, 20 March 2020.) News items about epidemiology and other medical news for the virus are reported in a companion article.
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I have included enough on the infrastructure bill to understand it and its progress. But I left out debate on the amendments and the pure politicking. There’s a lot of economic news this week – also have an increasing number of articles on vaccine mandates; it’ll be interesting to watch when they start to fail. There’s a lot of such news domestically, not as much globally, however.
The news:
Fed Vice Chair Clarida anticipates rate hikes starting in 2023 – Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said Wednesday the central bank is likely to hit its economic targets by the end of next year and start raising interest rates again in 2023. While he said the jobs market still has to recover, Clarida noted that inflation is tracking to meet and exceed the Fed’s 2% goal. That sets the stage for the Fed to hit the “substantial further progress” benchmark it has set before it will start tightening policy. “Given this outlook and so long as inflation expectations remain well anchored at the 2% longer-run goal … commencing policy normalization in 2023 would, under these conditions, be entirely consistent with our new flexible average inflation targeting framework,” the policymaker told the Peterson Institute for International Economics in a virtual appearance. Clarida, however, gave no timetable for when the Fed might start curtailing its monthly asset purchases. The central bank has been buying $120 billion a month in Treasury securities and mortgage-backed bonds to keep financial markets liquid amid the Covid crisis. While Clarida noted that officials are discussing when they might pull back on these bond purchases, he said only that the public will be given plenty of notice before a decision is made. The speech comes amid growing concern over a peak in the economic recovery that began in April 2020, as well as a surge in inflation that has taken price increases well beyond the Fed’s target. Clarida noted that core personal consumption expenditure prices – the Fed’s preferred inflation metric – are running at a 2.7% rate since February 2020, just before the Covid pandemic hit. Should his expectations for inflation ahead materialize, “then I believe that … necessary conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022.” Current market pricing has shifted in terms of rate expectations, with futures contracts tied to the Fed’s benchmark rate now indicating just a 43.7% chance of a hike by the end of 2022, according to the CME Group. However, market sentiment around the Fed is volatile, and Clarida’s comments, particularly around inflation, indicate that a move could come sooner. “If, as projected, core PCE inflation this year does come in at, or certainly above, 3%, I will consider that much more than a ‘moderate’ overshoot of our 2% longer-run inflation objective,” he said. “As always, there are risks to any outlook, and I believe that the risks to my outlook for inflation are to the upside.”
U.S. Senator Joe Manchin urges Fed to reduce asset purchases to minimize inflation risks (Reuters) – U.S. Senator Joe Manchin urged the Federal Reserve to start withdrawing some of its economic support in a letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell in which the moderate Democratic lawmaker from West Virginia said he is worried easy monetary policy may fuel higher inflation. “With the recession over and our strong economic recovery well underway, I am increasingly alarmed that the Fed continues to inject record amounts of stimulus into our economy by continuing an emergency level of quantitative easing,” wrote Manchin. Fed officials lowered short-term interest rates to near zero levels last year and began purchasing $120 billion in a month in government bonds to stabilize markets and support the economy after it was disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic. Policymakers are in the process of discussing how to reduce those purchases, and Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said on Wednesday that it is possible Fed officials could announce a reduction in the pace of purchases later this year. A spokeswoman for the Fed confirmed that the central bank received the letter but declined to comment further. Manchin credited swift action from Fed and robust relief packages passed by Congress with helping to bolster the economy through the deep but brief recession last year. But he said he was also worried additional fiscal stimulus could “lead to our economy overheating and to unavoidable inflation taxes that hard working Americans cannot afford.” The $1.9 trillion relief plan passed earlier this year was criticized by Republicans and some Democrats, including former Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers, who said they were worried it could set off inflationary pressures. Senators are currently considering a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill and some Democrats are in favor of another $3.5 trillion proposal. Lawmakers do not determine monetary policy but the Senate will have to confirm President Joe Biden’s nominee for leading the central bank. The White House needs to decide if it will keep Powell on after term as chair expires in February of 2022.
Jobs Report Risks Different Kind of Taper Tantrum – WSJ — Leave it to Joe Manchin to know which way the wind is blowing. A day before Friday’s monthly jobs report, the West Virginia senator urged the Federal Reserve to pare back stimulus to avoid overheating the economy. Variously described as the most powerful man in the Senate and even the most powerful Joe in Washington, the conservative Democrat wields unusual power in a chamber where his party controls exactly half of the seats. His case was strengthened by the data. The U.S. added 943,000 jobs in July, about 100,000 more than economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had been expecting, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4% compared with a consensus estimate of 5.7%. The prior two months saw upward revisions, adding nearly 120,000 more jobs in total. With the Fed still committed to holding overnight interest rates near zero, where they have been since last March, and to purchasing $120 billion a month in Treasury and mortgage securities, Mr. Manchin’s argument is one that increasingly resonates with people who don’t hold Ph.D.s in economics. While the economy no doubt bears scars from the Covid-19 pandemic, including millions fewer Americans in the workforce, it is obvious that employers are begging for applicants in many sectors and bidding up for them. Labor shortages are helping to push up prices of many goods and services. Mr. Manchin criticized the continuation of “policy responses tailored for an economic depression.” Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said Wednesday that the central bank could announce its intention to cut bond purchases later in 2021 and to begin raising rates in 2023. The Fed is formally independent, but could the political winds be shifting in favor of the other part of its “dual mandate” – stable prices, not just maximum employment Normally Congress, consumers and of course the investor class are uniformly in favor of looser policy. With Americans facing sticker shock at the mall and having difficulty buying a home, a schism might develop that could spark more calls like those from Mr. Manchin. Though the Fed doesn’t have to act, the pressure alone could spark a rise in bond yields, weighing on record stock prices. It also could make splashy fiscal initiatives such as the infrastructure plan now being finalized in Washington more contentious, which also could pinch stocks.
Warren praises Brainard, slams Powell ahead of Biden Fed pick –Sen. Elizabeth Warren praised Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard on Wednesday for her approach to financial regulation while criticizing Chairman Jerome Powell as too protective of big financial institutions.”My concern is that over and over he has weakened the regulation here,” she said of Powell on Bloomberg TV’s “Balance of Power with David Westin.” “We need someone who understands and uses the monetary policy tools and the regulatory tools to keep our economy safe. Let’s not forget what happened in 2008.”The Massachusetts Democrat is a member of the Banking Committee and a key voice in discussions ahead of a decision by President Biden on who should lead the nation’s central bank. Powell’s term ends in February.
Business Cycle Indicators as of August 2 – IHS-MarkIt (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) released monthly GDP today. The July employment situation will be released this Friday. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from June release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 8/2 for July nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (8/2/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.Both Monthly GDP and personal income excluding current transfers growth have stalled out at prior-peak levels. Relative to the NBER peak in 2020M02, employment continues to be the laggard, down 4.5% (log terms). If nonfarm payroll (NFP) in July rises as forecasted by Bloomberg consensus by 900K, it’ll still be down by 3.9%.Contributions to June’s GDP growth are shown in the table below. Final sales growth outstripped GDP growth, as in the quarter overall (see this post), hence the -2.1% (SAAR) contribution from inventory decumulation. Net exports have been exerting a drag in the last two months, as well.
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy – These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red). The 7-day average is down 20.1% from the same day in 2019 (79.9% of 2019). (Dashed line) There was a slow increase from the bottom starting in May 2020 – and then TSA data picked up in 2021 – but has mostly sideways over the last few of weeks. The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through July 31st, 2021. This data is “a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Dining picked up during the holidays, then slumped with the huge winter surge in cases. Dining is generally picking up, but was down 6% in the US (7-day average compared to 2019). Florida and Texas are above 2019 levels. —– Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo —– This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through July 29th. Movie ticket sales were at $92 million last week, down about 63% from the median for the week.This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Occupancy is well above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid. This data is through July 24th. The occupancy rate is down 7.8% compared to the same week in 2019. Note: Occupancy was up year-over-year, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. However, the 4-week average occupancy is still down from normal levels. This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019. Blue is for 2020. Red is for 2021. As of July 23rd, gasoline supplied was down 2.4% compared to the same week in 2019. There have been 3 weeks so far this year when gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019. This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: “This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities.” This is just a general guide – people that regularly commute probably don’t ask for directions. There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through July 31st for the United States and several selected cities. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 10% of the January 2020 level. Strangely, New York City is doing well by this metric, but subway usage in NYC is down sharply (next graph). I’d put much more weight on subway usage! Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR). This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. Most weeks are between 30 and 35 million entries, and currently there are over 12 million subway turnstile entries per week – and generally increasing.This data is through Friday, July 30th.Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
Senate negotiators finalize bipartisan infrastructure bill – A group of senators finalized legislative language Sunday evening for the long-awaited bipartisan physical infrastructure deal, bringing the Senate one step closer to passing a top priority for President Joe Biden. The finished product comes after Senate negotiators and their staff worked throughout the weekend on text for the bipartisan agreement, which includes $550 billion in new spending on roads, bridges, highways, broadband and water infrastructure. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Sunday evening took the next procedural step to move the legislation forward, predicting it would pass the chamber in a “matter of days.” But first it will need to go through an arduous amendment process. “It’s been decades since Congress passed such a significant standalone investment and I salute the hard work done here by everybody,” Schumer said. “Given how bipartisan the bill is and how much work has already been put in to get the details right, I believe the Senate can quickly process relevant amendments.” The bipartisan infrastructure bill comes as Senate Democrats are also planning to pass a budget blueprint for a $3.5 trillion social spending package. Schumer has vowed to pass both measures before the Senate leaves for the August recess. The Senate Democrats and Republicans who negotiated the bipartisan package took to the floor Sunday evening to celebrate the official introduction of the legislation. The group, led by Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio), had reached an agreement with the White House back in June on a bipartisan framework. But translating that agreement into legislative text proved challenging and took several weeks. While Sinema acknowledged Sunday evening that the process was “difficult” and “long,” she added it was “what our forefathers intended.” “This very process of finding bipartisan compromise and working together to achieve the objectives that the American people are depending upon us to do is the very heart and very core of why each of us serve in this government,” Sinema said. “It is why I ran for office.” Portman, meanwhile, declared that “this process of starting from the center out has worked.” He reiterated that the bipartisan bill focused on “core infrastructure” and would not raise taxes, meeting the two conditions Republicans set. While all 50 Senate Democrats voted in favor of moving forward, the legislation has divided the Senate Republican conference. A total of 18 Senate Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, supported advancing the legislation last week and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), one of the GOP negotiators, predicted on CNN Sunday that at least 10 Republicans would support final passage. Many GOP senators have said they want to see final bill text and a score from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office before making a final decision. Others have questioned why Senate Republicans would support a bipartisan package, when Democrats have made clear that they will move forward with their social spending package regardless.Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), another GOP negotiator, addressed that argument Sunday evening, emphasizing that the bipartisan package was a separate effort.”I know members of both parties have mischaracterized our efforts as somehow linked to paving the way to the Democrats’ $3.5 trillion wish list,” Romney said. “If you don’t think our Democrat friends are going to push for that monstrosity with or without this bill then I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. They’re going to push for that anyway.”
The Infrastructure ‘Pay-Fors’ That Aren’t – WSJ Editorial Board — West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin and his Senate Republican friends are stressing that their infrastructure deal is “fully paid for.” Read their lips: No new deficit spending. Read their bill: It relies to a great degree on savings and revenue already baked into the fisc or that are unlikely to happen. Deficit financing is better than increasing taxes, and Republicans at least jettisoned the taxes (until Democrats raise them in their budget reconciliation bill). They also deep-sixed President Biden’s plan to give the IRS $40 billion to harass small businesses, which Democrats claimed would raise hundreds of billions of dollars in new revenue. Their IRS stimulus was dubious, but so are most of the bill’s remaining offsets. Start with using 10 years of savings from various programs to offset five years of spending. This includes extending by a decade a guarantee fee that government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac charge on mortgages they back. Congress imposed the 10-basis point fee in 2011 to cover the cost of the government backstop on Fan and Fred. Extending the fee through 2032 is expected to raise $21 billion, but the taxpayer costs will be far greater if the housing giants start to lose money again after the Biden Administration takes steps to ease underwriting standards. Then there’s magical Medicare accounting. The bill would extend Medicare provider payment cuts by a year through 2031, just inside the 10-year budget window. Senators are counting that as saving $9 billion, but Congress is almost certain to override this provision once hospitals squawk, as they surely will. Senators are also counting savings from suspending a Trump Medicare anti-kickback rule through 2025. The rule bans most rebates that drug makers pay to Medicare Part D pharmaceutical benefit managers to get on plan formularies and thus would have the effect of increasing seniors’ premiums and government spending. A federal judge this year ordered the rule’s effective date to be delayed by a year to January 2023 while the Biden Administration reviews it. Congress never “paid for” the rule. Nonetheless, Congress now plans to pocket savings from delaying its implementation even though it was never likely to take effect. This is a Washington classic that the Senators claim will save $49 billion. The bill also claims $53 billion from lower spending on unemployment benefits. Unemployment has fallen faster than the Congressional Budget Office projected in March, and 26 mostly Republican states are cutting the $300 federal unemployment bonus early. The savings, if they happen, will come from money that would never have been spent thanks to better policies by conservative states. Senators had originally proposed to pay for some of the deal with $205 billion from repurposed Covid relief funds. But Democrats refused to reallocate any of the hundreds of billions of the unspent money for states and schools in their pandemic spending bills. In the end, Senators could only agree to repurpose $43 billion, mostly from small business programs with leftover funds. Senators are also claiming political credit for saving money with private-public partnerships, though they don’t offset the spending and make up a tiny share of the bill. For instance, broadband providers would be allowed to float tax-exempt “private activity” bonds to expand their networks in rural areas. But the bill separately appropriates $42 billion for state and local governments to build out broadband. Why float a bond to invest in broadband if governments will be your competition? The bill includes some other notional pay-fors like selling oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, projecting future broadband spectrum sales, and requiring manufacturers of single-dose pill containers to provide Medicare refunds for discarded drugs. By the way, CBO is obliged to score many of these as savings under current budget rules, much as it scored the federal takeover of student loans as a money-maker to finance ObamaCare in 2010. Our job is to explain the fiscal reality.
What’s in the Infrastructure Bill for Roads, Bridges, Broadband and Cryptocurrency – WSJ -A bipartisan group of senators unveiled legislative text on Sunday for a roughly $1 trillion infrastructure package, which includes about $550 billion above projected federal spending on roads, bridges, expanded broadband access and more. A group of 10 senators, five Democrats and five Republicans, worked for weeks to come to an agreement on the details. The Biden White House has signed off on the package. GOP lawmakers involved in the talks said they were confident it would win the support of at least 10 Republicans, a threshold to reach the 60 votes necessary for advancing the deal. A preliminary vote on the package received 67 votes. Here’s what is in the bipartisan agreement, and what comes next.The bill includes $110 billion in funding for roads, bridges and major projects, as well as $39 billion to modernize and make public transit more accessible to the disabled and elderly. Significant chunks of that money will go to major city transit systems, like New York City’s, based on federal funding formulas.The deal also includes a $66 billion investment in rail maintenance, modernization and expansion, most of which will go to Amtrak. It would also alter Amtrak’s stated mission to focus on “the intercity passenger rail needs of the United States” rather than turning a profit or at least breaking even, something the system hasn’t done since its creation in 1971. The system is attempting a major overhaul to provide a reliablealternative to flying and driving outside of just the Northeast Acela corridor.The legislation will provide $11 billion in funding for highway and pedestrian safety programs. A total of $7.5 billion will go to implementing a network of electric vehicle chargers, and another $7.5 billion will be used for zero-emission or low-emission buses and ferries. Ports and airports will be boosted with $42 billion in new spending.The group agreed to spend $50 billion to bolster the country’s infrastructure generally against climate change and cyberattacks. Another $55 billion will go toward clean drinking water and $65 billion will go toward broadband infrastructure and development. The deal invests $21 billion in removing pollution from soil and groundwater, job creation in energy communities and a focus on economic and environmental justice. The legislation will include $73 billion to update and expand the power grid. The broadband section of the bill would establish a grant program to expand access to underserved areas, with nonprofits, public-private partnerships, private companies, utilities and local governments all eligible for project funding. It would also make a pandemic emergency benefit for internet access permanent, though it would lower the monthly subsidy for qualifying households to $30 from $50, but would include $100 for equipment. Around four million households currently use the emergency benefit, according to the Federal Communications Commission. The spending will be paid for with a variety of revenue streams, including more than $200 billion in repurposed funds originally intended for coronavirus relief but left unused; about $50 billion will come from delaying a Trump-era rule on Medicare rebates; and $50 billion from certain states returning unused unemployment insurance supplemental funds. The negotiators also expect about $30 billion will be generated from applying information-reporting requirements for cryptocurrency; nearly $60 billion will come from economic growth spurred by the spending; and $87 billion from past and future sales of wireless spectrum space. A series of smaller pay-fors are expected to make up the difference. Details for how some of the revenue streams would work remain controversial and could change in the amendment process this week. Sen. Ron Wyden (D., Ore.), the chairman of the Finance Committee, criticized the cryptocurrency tax provision as “an attempt to apply brick and mortar rules to the internet and fails to understand how the technology works.” Cryptocurrency industry groups have criticized the provision as unclear and warned it could ensnare individuals and companies who don’t have actual customers, such as decentralized exchanges and miners, as opposed to more traditional exchanges that are the primary target of the changes.
$1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill Hits Snag As Senators File Nearly 300 Amendments –An already-tenuous $1 trillion infrastructure spending package has been thrown into further disarray this week, after lawmakers filed nearly 300 amendments to the legislation, according to The Hill, which notes that in several instances “senators are holding their colleagues’ amendments hostage by objecting to voting on them unless their own priorities are also guaranteed a vote.” According to Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) – one of the chief negotiators of the bipartisan deal, complained that the process is moving “not fast enough,” but that “it’s probably going to be Saturday” before there’s a vote on final passage. The legislation as introduced would provide $110 billion for roads, bridges and major projects, $66 billion for passenger and freight rail, $39 billion for public transit, $65 billion for broadband, and $55 billion for water infrastructure, among other provisions. Senators had filed 281 amendments to the infrastructure package as of 5 p.m. Tuesday. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) offered 35 amendments, while Sen. Roger Wicker (Miss.), the ranking Republican on the Senate Commerce Committee, offered 16. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) had offered 23 as of Tuesday afternoon. Lee and Blackburn are not expected to vote in favor of the final bill, but Wicker is in a group of Republicans on the fence over whether to vote to overcome a filibuster and set the legislation up for final passage. -The Hill
Senators rush to pass infrastructure bill as C.B.O. Projects it would add $256 billion to deficit over the next decade. – Republicans and Democrats rushed on Thursday to line up a Senate vote to pass the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, working to clear away the final obstacles despite a finding by Congress’s official scorekeeper that the bill would add more than $250 billion to the federal deficit over the next decade.The flurry of activity came after three days of plodding work on the package, which would devote $550 billion in new money to rebuilding roads, bridges and rail systems and funding new climate resiliency and broadband access initiatives.It followed an estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office on the cost of the legislation, which was one of the last major hurdles to passing it. The C.B.O. calculated that nearly half of the new spending – $256 billion – would be financed by adding to the nation’s debt between 2021 to 2031, contradicting the claims of Republican and Democratic proponents that the measure would fully pay for itself.Fiscal watchdogs have warned that lawmakers have used budgetary gimmicks to obscure the true cost.Still, with their August vacations looming, senators appeared ready to move forward with the bill, a key component of President Biden’s agenda.In a statement defending the legislation they helped craft, Senators Rob Portman, Republican of Ohio, and Kyrsten Sinema, Democrat of Arizona, insisted that there were actually $519 billion in offsets. “The American people strongly support this bipartisan legislation and we look forward to working with our colleagues on both sides of the aisle and President Biden to get it passed through Congress and signed into law,” the two senators said.A new analysis released by the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model on Thursday estimated that the legislation would authorize $548 billion in new infrastructure investments. Changes to the tax code would finance $132 billion of that, the analysis said, but the remaining $351 billion would be deficit spending. The legislation would have no significant impact on economic growth through 2050, the analysis concluded, rejecting assertions by the Republicans and Democrats who wrote it that growth resulting from their plan would generate $56 billion in savings.In its report on Thursday, the C.B.O. said that it did not estimate how any macroeconomic effects of the legislation would influence the federal budget.The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has also taken issue with the lawmakers’ accounting. For instance, senators estimated $200 billion in savings from unused funds from earlier pandemic relief packages. But the committee said that those savings had already occurred, so they should not count as an offset for the cost of the infrastructure bill, which it estimated would have a net cost of about $350 billion. Republicans have expressed growing concern about the cost of the Biden administration’s economic agenda, arguing that the flood of new spending would cause inflation and inflict grave economic damage. They have also declared that they will not support raising the statutory debt limit, which the Treasury Department says technically expired at the beginning of this month.
Schumer moves to shut down debate on infrastructure bill in key step toward final vote – Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer moved on Thursday night to cut off debate on the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, paving the way for swift passage of the sweeping legislation that would enact key elements of President Joe Biden’s economic agenda, although exact timing of a final vote is still unclear.Schumer’s move to file cloture sets up a key procedural vote on Saturday, which needs 60 votes to end debate on the bill.But senators are still having discussions about a series of votes late Thursday, including a possible vote on final passage. However, given the timing, that seems increasingly unlikely.If the procedural vote goes forward on Saturday, and 60 senators vote to advance the bill, then there would be a limited time for debate followed by additional votes — and then final passage. At that point, passage could occur as early as Saturday if all senators agree. If not, the vote would slip until early next week.Schumer said in floor remarks on Thursday night that Democrats and Republicans have worked all day and are still hashing out an agreement to move to final amendment votes on the bill, but “we aren’t there yet.”He added: “If we come to an agreement yet tonight, which is our preference…we will have additional votes on amendments. I believe we’re very close to an agreement and see no reason why we can’t complete this important bipartisan bill. So I urge both sides to continue working diligently to make it happen.”
Senate aims to finish $1tn infrastructure bill on Saturday after late-night snag – Nearing decision time, senators were struggling to wrap up work on the bipartisan infrastructure plan despite hopes to expedite consideration and voting on the nearly $1tn proposal. The package had appeared on track for eventual Senate passage, a rare accord between Republicans and Democrats joining on a shared priority that also is essential to Joe Biden’s agenda.But senators hit new problems late Thursday as they worked late into the night on amendments. A procedural vote was set for Saturday. “We’ve worked long, hard and collaboratively, to finish this important bipartisan bill,” said Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, just before midnight. In announcing Saturday’s schedule, he said: “We very much want to finish.”Called the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the thick bill is a first part of Biden’s infrastructure agenda, and would inject billions of new spending on roads, bridges, waterworks, broadband and other projects to virtually every corner of the nation. If approved by the Senate, it would next go to the House. The US president has repeatedly said he wants Congress to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill as quickly as possible. Biden has described the bill – which would provide $550bn in new federal funds for roads, bridges and other physical infrastructure projects – as “the most significant long-term investment in our infrastructure and competitiveness in nearly a century”. “This deal signals to the world that our democracy can function, deliver, and do big things,” Biden said in a statement last week. “As we did with the transcontinental railroad and the interstate highway, we will once again transform America and propel us into the future.” Biden acknowledged that Democrats did not get everything they wanted in the bill, but he added: “[T]he bottom line is … the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal is a blue-collar blueprint to rebuild America that will help make our historic economic recovery a historic long-term boom.” Thursday’s late-night session stalled out as new debates emerged over proposed amendments to change the 2,700-page package. Senators have processed nearly two dozen amendments, so far, and none has substantially changed the framework of the public works package. With more than a dozen amendments still to go, senators struggled to reach agreements. One of the amendments generating the most attention Thursday involved cryptocurrency. The bill would raise an estimated $28bn over 10 years by updating Internal Revenue Service reporting requirements for cryptocurrency brokers, just as stockbrokers report their customers’ sales to the IRS. Senator Pat Toomey, Republican of Pennsylvania, and others are concerned that crypto miners, software developers and others would be subject to the new IRS reporting requirement. Toomey led efforts to narrow the definition of who must file the reporting forms to the IRS.
GOP Senator Lindsey Graham Tests Positive for Covid-19 – Senator Lindsey Graham said he tested positive for Covid-19 despite being vaccinated, becoming at least the third member of Congress to recently report an infection. Graham’s positive test comes amid a surge of Covid cases spurred by the highly transmissible Delta variant, which in turn has brought calls for ramped-up public health measures, including a return to masking and some employers mandating vaccinations or regular testing for their employees.The House has already imposed a mask mandate for members, while in the Senate masks are recommended but not required.Graham said in a statement that he began having “flu-like” symptoms on Saturday and saw a doctor Monday.”I feel like I have a sinus infection and at present time I have mild symptoms,” the South Carolina Republican said.Graham, 66, said he will quarantine for 10 days, likely taking him out of the Senate for the votes this week on the bipartisan infrastructure plan that he helped negotiate. And, as the ranking Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, he would be expected to lead GOP opposition to the budget resolution that Democrats also expects to debate before the August recess.Graham attended a gathering of senators this weekend on board Senator Joe Manchin’s boat, his spokesman, Kevin Bishop said. Manchin confirmed there was such a gathering, without giving details, and said he has since tested negative for Covid-19.
If Obama’s “Pandemic Playbook” Was So Great, Why Isn’t Biden Following It? — Lambert Strether — There were so many cycles of outrage during the former guy’s administration it was hard to keep track of them, but one of the most serious was ignited by Politico in March 2020 with this article: “Trump team failed to follow NSC’s pandemic playbook” (which was written under the Obama administration. From Politico[1]: [There are] hundreds of tactics and key policy decisions laid out in a 69-page National Security Council playbook on fighting pandemics, which POLITICO is detailing for the first time. “Each section of this playbook includes specific questions that should be asked and decisions that should be made at multiple levels” within the national security apparatus, the playbook urges, repeatedly advising officials to question the numbers on viral spread, ensure appropriate diagnostic capacity and check on the U.S. stockpile of emergency resources. Obama, in a speech in Philadelphia in October 2020, laid the charge more forcefully and vividly:We literally left this White House a pandemic playbook that would have shown them how to respond before the virus reached our shores. They probably used it to I don’t know, prop up a wobbly table somewhere. We don’t know where that playbook went. And on NPR in November 2020, Obama was even more vivid, or perhaps I should say florid:We put together a pandemic playbook, which we actually gave to the incoming Trump administration, indicating here are the steps that you need to take, and if, in fact, this ends up being an airborne virus that is highly contagious[2], then, you know, the steps that are going to need to be taken in advance of any development of a vaccine, or any other kind of medical intervention, is wearing masks, social distancing, so forth and so on.Obviously, these are serious charges, which amount to “If only Trump had followed our Playbook Covid would have been beaten, and thousands of lives would been saved.” [embedded playbook, discussion on it] There are at least two areas in which the Biden Administration has not followed the Playbook, either. One is just inexplicable; the second is improbable. And there is a third area where the Playbook was utterly useless. Inexplicably, the Biden Administration has not followed the Playbook’s guidance on Communications.
N.I.H. director says asking for proof of vaccination is a step ‘in the right direction.’ –As cases and hospitalizations rise across the country, Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, said on Sunday that businesses asking employees for proof of vaccination or regular testing were taking steps “in the right direction.””I think anything we can do to encourage reluctant folks to get vaccinated – because they’ll want to be part of these public events – that’s a good thing,” Dr. Collins said on CNN’s “State of the Union.”Dr. Collins said he was pleased to see companies such as Disney and Walmart asking their employees to get vaccinated. And he expressed support for President Biden’s decision last week requiring federal workers to get the vaccine or, “if they’re not, to get regular testing, which is inconvenient.””All of those steps I think are in the right direction,” Dr. Collins said.When asked whether airlines should require proof of vaccination for passengers, Dr. Collins said that the decision was up to the airlines, but that it could motivate people to get vaccinated if they want to be able to travel.Opinion: Require the vaccine. It’s time to stop coddling the reckless. Ruth Marcus, WaPo – P—ay people to get vaccinated, no matter whether that is unfair to those who didn’t receive checks for jabs. Require them to do so as a condition of going to work or enrolling in school. Do whatever it takes – and, recent weeks have shown, it is going to take steps like these – to get the pandemic under control.Those of us who have behaved responsibly – wearing masks and, since the vaccines became available, getting our shots – cannot be held hostage by those who can’t be bothered to do the same, or who are too deluded by misinformation to understand what is so clearly in their own interest.The more inconvenient we make life for the unvaccinated, the better our own lives will be. More important, the fewer who will needlessly die. We cannot ignore the emerging evidence that the delta variant is transmissible even by those who have been fully vaccinated. “The war has changed,” as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention concluded. President Biden recognized this new reality with his actions Thursday. He announced that federal employees must be vaccinated or mask up and submit continuing proof that they are not infected; he urged private employers to do the same; and he encouraged the use of federal funds to prod – okay, bribe – the unvaccinated to step up. If anything, Biden didn’t go far enough. He should have imposed a tighter mandate on federal workers and contractors – no frequent testing option as an alternative. He should have required vaccines for airline and railroad travel. He should have mandated vaccines for members of the military rather than kicking that can a few weeks down the road.If I sound exasperated, I am, and I don’t think I’m alone. I have been looking forward to going back to my office – or backish, since it likely won’t be full-time – in a few weeks. Now, with D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser (D) having wisely reimposed a mask mandate in the city, it’s hard to see how we’re going to actually pull that off. Better to straggle along on Zoom, seeing one another’s faces, than mask up for eight hours or more.
Say goodbye to persuasion: Vaccine mandates may be coming – but will they be legal? – This month was a clear break from persuasion and a step toward coercion in dealing with those who refuse to be vaccinated. Even the normally staid Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is ramping up its rhetoric, declaring that the “war has changed” due to the Delta variant. For some, however, there is concern that Biden’s “they” is a declaration of war on them. Clearly, there is a rapidly diminishing level of communication between the “vacs” and “non-vacs.”Until recently, the Biden administration relied largely on what could be called the “reasoned consent” model. Not unreasonably, it assumed that Americans would want the vaccine, given the dire consequences of being unvaccinated. But this first stage was in some regards a failure: While more than 85 percent of the high-risk population of older Americans have been vaccinated, roughly half of the wider population has not been fully vaccinated. A myriad of reasons exist: distrust of government programs among some minorities and conservatives; people who previously had COVID-19 considering themselves immune; those concerned with religious or medical issues. Billions spent on state and federal outreach programs failed to penetrate that wall of resistance. As long lines disappeared at vaccine centers, it became clear that many citizens have come to distrust the media and the government on this, as on so many issues. Anyone raising questions about the virus – even its origins – was censored by Big Tech, and politicians weaponized the wedge issue for their own purposes. Such censorship continued this week even for those merely suggesting a “pause” to examine the data. For people already distrustful of the government, the censorship and overheated rhetoric only confirm their suspicions. Government officials then shifted from reasoned to induced or compensated consent. In Ohio, $1 million lottery prizes were offered to those willing to take the shots; other states offered free metro or free museum passes. It didn’t work – but that didn’t stop President Biden this week from telling states to use federal funds to offer $100 for every person who consents to take a shot. We are now entering the “coerced consent” stage. Unable to persuade or purchase consent, many are arguing to make it difficult to be gainfully employed or functionally active without proof of vaccination. It is a type of de facto pandemic passport. After indicating the administration was considering a federal vaccine mandate, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said this week, “I was referring to mandates by private institutions and portions of the federal government. There will be no federal mandate.”
As delta variant surges, trust in the media plummets – in 1976, in the post-Watergate era of journalism, trust in the Fourth Estate was 72 percent, according to Gallup. That’s right: Nearly three of four Americans trusted that what they read, what they heard, were the facts with no narrative or cause or agenda being advanced. In 2005, 72 percent became 50 percent in terms of trust in the media. A 22-point drop, sure, but a respectable number when compared to just how bad things have become for an institution once revered for icons such as Cronkite, Brinkley, Mudd, Reasoner, Wallace, Jennings, Koppel and Russert. The bottom would drop out before the Trump era began in 2017, with just 32 percent of the country saying it trusted the media five years ago, or 18- and 40-point drops from 2005 and 1976, respectively. The sentiment is clear: Viewers want more facts and less opinion, less fear mongering and fewer attempts to divide. To underscore this point, a 2021 survey from global communications firm Edelman found that 58 percent of Americans believe “most news organizations are more concerned with supporting an ideology or political position than with informing the public,” while 56 percent believe the media is “purposely trying to mislead people by saying things they know are false or gross exaggerations.” The need for facts over opinions is especially true in the COVID-resurgence era in the midst of extreme domestic political partisanship and global challenges – a time when we need the media to be more responsible than ever, if informing and educating the public is the goal. This, unfortunately, is not the case. Take two recent examples to make a macro point: Two prominent news outlets pushed a narrative around vaccinated people and breakthrough cases without putting the numbers into all-important statistical context. “Breakthrough Covid cases: At least 125,000 fully vaccinated Americans have tested positive,” read an NBC News headline. Wow – 125,000? You can fill Yankee Stadium two-and-a-half times with a number like that. Scary stuff. Actually, when putting things into context, it’s not – because 125,000 Americans out of 164.2 million vaccinated Americans is .08 percent in terms of breakthrough cases, or one in 1,300 people. So why not include that context in the all-important headline? Know this: An increasing number of news consumers don’t read the story, just the headline. And with Pew Research showing that 86 percent of Americans now get their news online, we are entering into a scroll-headline-absorb, scroll-headline-absorb kind of news culture.
Republicans are set to release their most detailed case yet arguing that researchers in Wuhan could have genetically manipulated the virus Months ahead of the COVID-19 outbreak, the Wuhan National Biosafety Lab requested bids for major renovations to air safety and waste treatment systems in research facilities that had been operational for less than 2 years, according to a new congressional report on the pandemic’s origins, obtained by Fox News. “Such a significant renovation so soon after the facility began operation appears unusual,” said the report from the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s Republicanstaff. The projects for air disinfection, hazardous waste and central air conditioning systems “all raise questions about how well these systems were functioning in the months prior to the outbreak of COVID-19.” The true reason for the procurement posting is unclear, as is when or if the work was even initiated. It adds another circumstantial element to the controversial argument that the pandemic began in a Wuhan lab, including suspicious behavior and obfuscation from China’s government and signs the pandemic began months before previously assumed. Only weeks ahead of President Biden’s deadline for the intelligence community’s review into the origins of the pandemic, Republicans will release their most detailed case yet arguing that researchers in Wuhan could have genetically manipulated the virus and that “the preponderance of evidence suggests SARS-CoV-2 was accidentally released from a Wuhan Institute of Virology laboratory.” Staff for Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, will include this information as an addendum to their September report.
The Biden administration plans to require most foreign visitors to be vaccinated. The Biden administration is developing plans to require all foreign travelers to the United States to be vaccinated against Covid-19, with limited exceptions, according to an administration official with knowledge of the developing policy.The plan, first reported by Reuters, will be part of a new system to be put in place after the current restrictions on travel into the country are lifted, but officials have yet to determine when that might be done.The Biden administration is examining plans to require all foreign travelers to the U.S. to receive a coronavirus vaccine before arrival, in light of the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant.President Biden has been under pressure for months to ease restrictions on people wishing to travel to the United States, particularly as other countries including England, Scotland and Canada relax their own measures.Ursula Von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, the European Union’s executive arm, urged U.S. authorities on Wednesday to lift travel restrictions for E.U. residents, arguing that the epidemiological situation was similar on both sides of the Atlantic.”This must not drag on for weeks,” Ms. Von der Leyen told the German news organization RND.But White House officials have said in recent days that there is no plan to lift current restrictions any time soon, in light of the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant.”Given where we are today,” Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, told reporters last week, “with the Delta variant, we will maintain existing travel restrictions at this point.”That stance was reiterated on Wednesday evening by White House officials who said that there was no timetable yet for requiring foreign travelers to be inoculated. Travelers from Brazil, Britain, China, India, Ireland, Iran, South Africa and Europe’s Schengen area – which spans 29 countries, city-states and micro-states – are barred from entering the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control, unless they are U.S. citizens or they spend 14 days before arrival in a country that is not on that list.
Biden administration to keep Trump-era rule of turning away migrants during pandemic –The Biden administration will keep in place a Trump-era policy of turning migrants away at the southern border without allowing them to claim asylum due to the COVID-19 pandemic.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced an extension of the policy in a statement on Monday, determining that “introduction of such noncitizens, regardless of their country of origin, migrating through Canada and Mexico into the United States creates a serious danger of the introduction of COVID-19 into the United States.”The U.S. is currently experiencing a surge in new COVID-19 cases due to the more infectious delta variant, causing many state and local governments as well as businesses to reimpose pandemic mitigation measures.A group of GOP lawmakers last month had urged President Biden to keep the Trump-era policy, called Title 42, in place. Despite overturning many of former President Trump‘s immigration policies, the Biden administration has defended the continued use of Title 42, which it has used to expel roughly 100,000 migrants every month.The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) on Monday announced it would be moving forward with a lawsuit to force the administration to lift the policy.”It is now clear that there is no immediate plan to do that,” ACLU lawyer Lee Gelernt said in a statement. “The administration made repeated public statements that it just needed some time to build back the asylum system the Trump administration depleted. We gave them seven months. Time is up.”In a court filing responding to the lawsuit, the administration argued that lifting Title 42 would overwhelm the country’s immigration system and lead to overcrowded and unsafe conditions at border facilities.
The Biden administration keeps a health rule that turns away migrants. -With the number of migrants crossing the southern border surging and the pandemic proving to be far from over, the Biden administration has decided to leave in place for now the public health rule that has allowed it to turn away hundreds of thousands of migrants, officials said.The decision, confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday, amounted to a shift by the administration, which had been working on plans to begin lifting the rule this summer, more than a year after it was imposed by the Trump administration.The C.D.C. said allowing noncitizens to come over the border from either Mexico or Canada “creates a serious danger” of further spread of the coronavirus.President Biden has come under intense pressure for months from some Democrats and supporters of more liberal immigration policies to lift the rule, which critics say has been used less to protect public health than as a politically defensible way to limit immigration.The recent spread of the highly transmissible Delta variant has bolstered the argument that the public health rule, known as Title 42, remains necessary. And the virus’s quickening spread comes as border officials are so overwhelmed with the persistent pace of illegal migration that they say that allowing more migrants into the country by lifting the rule poses the threat of a humanitarian crisis.On Monday, the American Civil Liberties Union said it would move forward with a lawsuit seeking to force the administration to lift the public health order for migrant families after months of negotiations with the “ultimate goal” of ending the policy.
ACLU reignites Title 42 suit, pushing Biden on border policy –The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) is reviving a lawsuit challenging the government’s use of a public health authority to quickly expel people crossing the Southern border, preventing them from seeking asylum.The suit was filed against the Trump administration, and the ACLU agreed to stall it when President Biden was sworn into office. But the ACLU is now moving forward again, signaling frustration with the new administration’s use of Title 42 to block asylum seekers due to COVID-19.The filing with the U.S. District Court in D.C. said the months of negotiations between the government and a number of outside advocacy groups has “reached an impasse.””We gave the Biden administration more than enough time to fix any problems left behind by the Trump administration, but it has left us no choice but to return to court. Families’ lives are at stake,” ACLU attorney Lee Gelernt, the lead attorney on the case, said in a release.The new litigation posture puts increased pressure on the Biden administration to draft a replacement policy.Biden administration officials have for months defended their use of Title 42, even as the administration has suggested it may lift the policy in phases. The government exempts children and some families from Title 42 but it is still widely used to expel single adults who seek to cross the border. In June, the Biden administration used Title 42 to expel more than 104,000 migrants at the southern border, more than 55 percent of the nearly 189,000 people who attempted to cross. “ICE is concerned that the loss of Title 42 could create additional pressure on our immigration system,” U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) acting Director Tae Johnson told lawmakers in May, nodding to the ACLU’s suit. He called the rule “critical” to maintaining social distance in border facilities.
Texas Judge Blocks Governor’s Order Halting Transport Of Covid-Positive Illegals –In a short-term victory for the Biden administration, a federal judge in Texas blocked an executive order which restricts the transport of infected illegal immigrants on Tuesday, suggesting that the order itself would have the effect of “exacerbating the spread of COVID-19.” U.S. District Judge Kathleen Cardone of El Paso agreed with the Justice Department, which accused Governor Greg Abbott (R) of potentially worsening the spread of the virus – as impeding the transfer of undocumented migrants would prolong the detention of unaccompanied children in “increasingly crowded” facilities, according to the Associated Press. Abbott spokesman Renae Eze said the decision was “based on limited evidence” and that their office looked forward to providing evidence to the court. Like Texas, the Biden administration is also raising concerns about the much more contagious delta variant as large numbers of noncitizens continue arriving at Texas’ southern border. On Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention renewed emergency powers that allow federal authorities to expel families at the border on grounds it prevents the spread of the coronavirus. Abbott last week authorized Texas state troopers along the border to “stop any vehicle upon reasonable suspicion” that it transports migrants – allowing troopers to reroute vehicles back to their point of origin, or impound them. Civil rights groups argue that the directive could invite racial profiling.
‘Down the drain’: Millions face eviction after Biden lets protections expire – As the clock ran out on a nationwide eviction ban for what’s expected to be the final time, millions of tenants are staring at the prospect of losing their homes as they wait for emergency rental aid that the government has failed to deliver. The federal eviction moratorium in place since September expired Saturday, after the Biden administration refused to extend it and Democrats in Congress couldn’t muster the votes to intervene. Now lawmakers and activists fear an unprecedented surge in evictions in the coming months just as the highly transmissible Delta variant causes a spike in coronavirus cases. The eviction wave is expected to hit population centers across the country. Housing advocates point to renters in Ohio, Texas and parts of the Southeast – where tenant protections are generally low, housing costs are high and economic problems from the pandemic linger – as particularly at risk. Even though it has its own ban in place through August, New York is also a concern, because it has been especially slow at distributing rental assistance funds to the hundreds of thousands of tenants in the state who are behind on their rent. “We’ve been circling a drain,” said KC Tenants Director Tara Raghuveer, a housing organizer in Kansas City, Mo. “On Saturday, poor and working-class tenants go down the drain in some places.”The last-minute gridlock between President Joe Biden and Democrats in Congress that resulted in the demise of the eviction ban this week threatens to impose new economic burdens on state and local governments. The officials will have to respond to mass evictions triggered by landlords – including many struggling financially themselves because of lost revenue – who are poised to kick out tenants who fell behind on their bills during the pandemic. The renter safety net is severely weakened, with fewer than a dozen state eviction bans in place and state and local governments having disbursed only a fraction of the $46.5 billion in rental assistance that Congress authorized over the past year.
Millions of Americans at risk of eviction as moratorium expires – A pandemic-related U.S. government ban on residential evictions expired at midnight on Saturday, putting millions of American renters at risk of being forced from their homes. The expiration was a blow to President Joe Biden, who on Thursday made a last-ditch request to Congress to extend the moratorium, citing the raging Delta variant.On Friday, the U.S. House of Representatives adjourned without reviewing the tenant protections after a Republican congressman blocked a bid to extend it by unanimous consent until Oct. 18. Democratic leaders said they lacked sufficient support to put the proposal to a formal vote.The U.S. Senate held a rare Saturday session but did not address the eviction ban. The White House had made clear it would not unilaterally extend the protections, arguing it does not have legal authority to do so following a Supreme Court ruling in June.More than 15 million people in 6.5 million U.S. households are currently behind on rental payments, according to a study by the Aspen Institute and the COVID-19 Eviction Defense Project, collectively owing more than $20 billion to landlords.Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren on Saturday said that in “every state in this country, families are sitting around their kitchen table right now, trying to figure out how to survive a devastating, disruptive and unnecessary eviction.”Democratic Representative Cori Bush and others spent Friday night outside the U.S. Capitol to call attention to the issue.She asked how parents could go to work and take care of children if they are evicted. “We cannot put people on the street in a deadly global pandemic,” Bush said on Saturday.Landlord groups opposed the moratorium, and some landlords have struggled to keep up with mortgage, tax and insurance payments on properties without rental income.An eviction moratorium has largely been in place under various measures since late March 2020. The ban by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) went into effect in September 2020 to combat the spread of COVID-19 and prevent homelessness during the pandemic.It has been extended multiple times, most recently through Saturday. CDC said in June it would not issue further extensions. A CDC spokeswoman confirmed that the moratorium had expired but declined to comment further.
500,000 New Yorkers Owe Back Rent. What Happens When Evictions Resume? – The New York Times -After hitting the pause button during the pandemic, the eviction machinery in New York City, one of the world’s most expensive housing markets, will likely soon start firing up again.For roughly 16 months, the city’s renters have been shielded from eviction under broad protections imposed by the federal government and New York State to keep people in their homes during the coronavirus outbreak. But those safeguards are soon expected to come to an end, setting off alarms about the fate of struggling tenants who owe months of unpaid rent, cannot make their next payments and could face homelessness. Nearly 500,000 households in New York City have rent arrears that collectively total more than $2.2 billion, according to an analysis of census data by the National Equity Atlas, a research group associated with the University of Southern California. At the same time, the financial challenges facing many tenants are squeezing smaller landlords who rely on rent to pay their own bills. The federal moratorium, enacted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has been extended several times throughout the pandemic but is now scheduled to expire at the end of July. After an additional one-month extension in June, the agency said that the protections would likely lapse for good this month. But tenants across New York State will have another month of protections under a state eviction moratorium, which expires at the end of August. New York State officials have not given any indication that the moratorium will be extended again, as it has been multiple times during the pandemic.New York State has set aside $2.7 billion in financial aid, largely from the federal government, that tenants can request through an application the state launched in June. If their applications are approved, up to a year’s worth of unpaid rent will be covered, as well as a year’s worth of unpaid utilities. Lower-income tenants can qualify for an additional three months of rental payments. The payments go directly to the landlord.There are some restrictions. To qualify, households must earn less than 80 percent of the area median income, or under $95,450 for a family of four in New York City. Landlords who accept the money cannot, in most cases, raise the rent or try to evict the tenant for at least a year.Both landlords and tenants can start the application process, but property owners, who are required to provide additional information for the application, can choose not to participate. New York City officials are encouraging renters whose landlords opted out to complete the application anyway, saying that it could be used as a defense in housing court.So far, more than 160,000 completed applications have been filed in New York State, with about three-quarters of them from renters and landlords in New York City, the state said. Yet, the flow of aid to renters has been among the slowest in the country, records show, hobbled by technical glitches and errors that have forced applicants to restart the lengthy process from the beginning.By the end of June, New York was one of just two states that had not yet sent out financial assistance to renters. As of last week, state officials said, only a small amount had been disbursed – $117,000 – in order to test the payment system. But on Monday, another $700,000 in aid was distributed, the state said, and additional payments will be made daily.Governor Andrew M. Cuomo announced on Monday that the state would be rolling out a revamped application process to streamline and speed up the process. The state said it would take until the end of August to disburse the funds from the approved applications.
White House calls on states to prevent evictions – — The White House moved Monday to pressure state and local governments to swiftly adopt policies to protect renters after an eviction moratorium expired over the weekend, potentially pushing millions of Americans out of their homes.In a statement on Monday, the White House emphasized that the federal government has provided $46.5 billion to keep renters in their homes. But it accused states and cities of being “too slow to act,” preventing that aid from making its way to tenants whose livelihoods have been upended by the pandemic.The focus on states comes as President Joe Biden faces stinging criticism, including from some in his own party, that he was was slow to address the end of the moratorium. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the prospect of widespread evictions “unfathomable.” The Congressional Black Caucus intensified pressure on the White House to issue an immediate extension. And one Democrat, Rep. Cori Bush of Missouri, who has been camped out in protest had a brief conversation at the U.S. Capitol with Vice President Kamala Harris on Monday.Some people were at risk of losing their homes as soon as Monday. But the White House insists there is only so much it can do on its own and that state and local leaders need to step up and get the aid out.”The president is clear: If some states and localities can get this out efficiently and effectively there’s no reason every state and locality can’t,” Gene Sperling, who oversees the administration’s coronavirus relief plans, told reporters. “There is simply no excuse, no place to hide for any state or locality that is failing to accelerate their emergency” rental assistance.Late last week, Biden announced he was allowing the ban to expire. The White House said he would have supported an extension of the moratorium but pointed to the Supreme Court, which signaled in a 5-4 vote in late June that it wouldn’t back further extensions. Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote that Congress would have to act to extend the moratorium. The White House noted that state-level efforts to stop evictions would spare a third of the country from evictions over the next month.
Biden washes his hands of responsibility for mass evictions –After allowing the federal moratorium on evictions to expire over the weekend, exposing millions of hard-pressed renters to the danger of forcible removal from their homes, loss of their belongings and homelessness, the Biden White House issued a statement Monday afternoon effectively disavowing any responsibility for the vast social misery its actions are helping to cause. The statement issued on “eviction prevention efforts” acknowledges the horrific impact of mass eviction, particularly “given the rising urgency of containing the spread of the Delta variant,” which will run like wildfire through homeless shelters, tent camps and overcrowded apartments where multiple families will live doubled-up and tripled-up. But while promising that “President Biden is taking further action to prevent Americans from experiencing the heartbreak of eviction,” the actions amount to a laundry list of appeals for other people to do something about the crisis. The statement reads like a satire on indifference thinly disguised by political doubletalk. Biden directs his own White House to discuss with other federal agencies “whether there are any other authorities to take additional actions to stop evictions,” given that the right-wing majority on the US Supreme Court struck down the anti-eviction order which was issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last September, on public health grounds, and extended several times for three-month periods. He calls on state and local courts to pause eviction proceedings until tenants and landlords can access Emergency Rental Assistance, the federal program established to provide assistance to workers thrown out of their jobs because of the pandemic and unable to pay their rent. Some $47 billion has been appropriated for this program, but only $3 billion has been paid out, largely because of foot-dragging by state and local governments and landlords. Biden calls on state and local governments to stop the foot-dragging, without offering any reason why that should be expected to happen, since it is driven by political resistance among capitalist politicians to do anything to assist tenants against landlords, who comprise a substantial social interest in both parties. The president calls on landlords to “hold off on evictions for the next 30 days” and even appeals to “utilities providers to work with State and local governments … to avoid cutting off services for those behind in payments due to the pandemic and at risk of eviction.” Biden, a devout churchgoer, does not include an appeal for Satan to cut off his claws and his tail and for the lion to lie down with the lamb, but he might as well do that as plead with landlords and utility companies to give their working class customers a break. This rigmarole was accompanied by a round of finger-pointing among the Democrats in Washington, with the White House and congressional leaders criticizing each other, and various factions of the House Democrats suggesting that their inner-party opponents are to blame for the failure to pass legislation by the July 31 deadline set by the Supreme Court ruling. It is certainly true, as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Representative Cori Bush and others charge, that a sizeable faction of “moderate,” i.e., right-wing House Democrats refused to support a bill presented Friday morning by the House leadership to extend the eviction moratorium through October 18. Some of them threatened to board planes to go back to their districts during the August congressional recess rather than allow the measure to come to a vote. But Ocasio-Cortez, Bush and others in the “left” of the Democratic caucus have devoted their political careers to upholding the viability of this right-wing party of imperialism and Wall Street as a vehicle for social reform. They can hardly express shock that their colleagues care more for landlords than they do for tenants about to be made homeless.
Biden administration orders short-term delay in evictions – The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a new 60-day moratorium on evictions Tuesday, a few days after a previous moratorium had been allowed to expire by the Biden administration. The new extension applies until Sunday, October 3, literally the eve of the traditional resumption of the Supreme Court’s annual term on the “first Monday in October.” But it is almost certain that some federal court will strike down the CDC moratorium long before that, citing the language of a Supreme Court ruling issued June 29. In that decision, rejecting a challenge filed by Alabama landlords, the court upheld a previous CDC eviction moratorium by a 5-4 margin. But Justice Brett Kavanaugh, the decisive fifth vote, wrote a brief concurrence declaring that he only agreed not to strike down the moratorium immediately because it was scheduled to expire on July 31, and some time was required to allow tenants and landlords to adjust to the end of the moratorium, which has been in effect since September 2020. Landlord groups are expected to challenge the new CDC freeze on evictions within a matter of days, bringing lawsuits in various federal courts. One or another federal judge is expected to issue a nationwide injunction halting the moratorium and thus allowing evictions to proceed. The new CDC order represents an attempt to skirt the terms of Kavanaugh’s concurrence by changing the language of the moratorium. Instead of a nationwide ban on evictions, the CDC covers only counties experiencing “substantial” or “high” levels of COVID-19 spread. These terms currently cover 80 percent of all US counties and 90 percent of the US population. The CDC also based the ban on the emergence of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, which is far more transmissible and may be far more deadly, and was only a small factor in the pandemic at the time the Alabama landlords filed the suit that culminated in Kavanaugh’s declaration. “The emergence of the Delta variant has led to a rapid acceleration of community transmission in the United States, putting more Americans at increased risk, especially if they are unvaccinated,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said Tuesday. “This moratorium is the right thing to do to keep people in their homes and out of congregate settings where COVID-19 spreads.” The CDC statement declared, self-evidently, that the moratorium on eviction “can be an effective public health measure utilized to prevent the spread of communicable disease” because it would allow people to stay in their own homes rather than congregating in setting like shelters. Addressing the question at a press briefing Tuesday, Biden admitted that the moratorium extension was “not likely to pass constitutional muster.” But he argued that some legal advisers held a different opinion, and it would be worth the risk to give more time for those facing eviction, who might be able to access federal money already appropriated by Congress, but not yet delivered by the states and cities. “At a minimum, by the time it gets litigated, it will probably give some additional time while we’re getting that $45 billion out to people who are in fact behind in the rent and don’t have the money,” Biden said. Up until Tuesday, the Biden administration had consistently maintained that it had no constitutional authority to extend the moratorium beyond the July 31 deadline set by Kavanaugh. The White House flatly rejected appeals by “left” Democrats led by Representative Cori Bush of St. Louis, Missouri for emergency action to prevent a huge new wave of evictions.
If you’re a progressive, the design and implementation of the new Child Tax Credit should worry you – The American Rescue Plan included a fully refundable child tax credit. The credit provides $3,600 per year for children under 6, and $3,000 per year for children between 6 and 17. The credit is paid out monthly, and slowly phases out for single parents who earn more than $112,500 and married couples earning more than $150,000.This legislation marks a sea change in government policy towards poor children. For years, the poorest children have been largely excluded from income support by eligibility rules that made assistance available primarily to families with labor market income. The new tax credit, in contrast, is unconditional, and with full participation, the new tax credit would sharply reduce deep poverty among children.Yet the legislation is seriously flawed in its design and implementation has been problematic. The upshot is that many of the poorest children – the children most in need of assistance – will not benefit from what should be a revolutionary new policy.There are two design flaws, both of which have been emphasized by Matt Bruenig of the People’s Policy Project (e.g., here, here, and here). The first is that many of the poorest families – the families most in need of financial assistance – do not file tax returns, and hence will not automatically get checks. This problem could have been ameliorated in the implementation phase, but the IRS has so far failed to make it easy for eligible non-filers to enroll. The second problem is that, due to the combination of means-testing and payment in advance (rather than in arrears), many families will be subject to unexpected clawbacks at the end of the year. What is troubling about this is that it was completely unnecessary. Poverty analysts have been flagging these issues to policymakers for years, and there were relatively straightforward design choices that could have largely avoided these problems. Perhaps these problems will be fixed when the legislation is reauthorized, or simply through improved implementation by the IRS. I hope so. But the underlying inability of our political system to make sound policy choices and to implement them competently is an ongoing problem that progressives need to take much more seriously. The fact is that implementing a child allowance that includes the poorest families is *much* easier to do than most of the other items on the progressive agenda, which includes daunting challenges such as decarbonization policy and health care reform.
Fed sets big-bank capital requirements following stress tests – The Federal Reserve has published capital requirements for the largest banks it supervises that will kick in Oct. 1. Goldman Sachs will have to comply with the highest capital requirements out of all of the 34 banks subject to the Fed’s stress tests, with a common equity Tier 1 requirement of 13.4%. This year’s stress tests examined 23 banks, with the remainder of the firms on an “every other year” test cycle. The capital requirements for those remaining firms will be based on last year’s stress tests. The common equity Tier 1 capital requirement is made up of the minimum CET1 capital ratio of 4.5%, which applies to each of the 34 banks, combined with the stress capital buffer requirement and, if applicable, a surcharge for the eight U.S.-based global systemically important banks.
Too many gaps in banks’ fraud-prevention systems -Retail banks have made significant investments in making their user experiences easier, faster and more connected. They have also stressed making them safer. But despite their best efforts to construct a more secure system, fraud – specifically identity theft, account takeover and application fraud – continues to prevail.It’s not for a lack of trying, or in some areas for a lack of innovation. It’s more likely a result of organizational complexity which impedes progress, and prevents singular ownership for the problem, and the solution. Whose problem is it? Does it sit with the fraud team, the information security team, the identity and access management team? The unhappy result of this lack of clarity might be a wave of consumer discontent. Legacy solutions that are embedded in today’s fraud prevention toolkit are partly to blame. Frankly, the status quo isn’t cutting it, as point solutions don’t account for fraud’s rapid evolution.
Smallest U.S. firms lost revenue last year, Fed survey finds – The smallest U.S. businesses – those with no employees other than the owner – struggled during the past year with 76% of the firms suffering a decline in revenue over 12 months, a new survey by regional Federal Reserve banks found. Just 13% reported revenue growth in the survey, which was led by Cleveland Fed researchers and published on Monday. The result showed that the smallest firms suffered more than large firms during the Covid-19 pandemic, the Fed research found. Among the nonemployers, 32% characterized their financial condition as “poor” at the time of the survey, and 81% of nonemployer firms experienced some type of financial challenge in the 12 months prior to the survey. Compared to employer firms, nonemployers more often turned to personal funds and reported some impact to household finances as a result of those challenges.
Fed sees loosening credit standards as lending demand returns – Banks eased lending standards across all loan types in the second quarter as demand increased and the economic outlook improved, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest senior loan officer opinion survey on bank lending practices. Most banks reported that they began implementing stricter lending standards for borrowers in late March of 2020 as the economic outlook shifted in light of news about the spread of the COVID-19.But lenders have recently reversed course, reporting higher risk tolerance amid heightened competition from other banks and nonbank lenders, the Fed said in summary of the report released Monday. The survey is conducted quarterly.
Fed Survey: Banks reported Eased Standards, Increased Demand for Residential Real Estate Loans -From the Federal Reserve: The July 2021 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The July 2021 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the second quarter of 2021.Regarding loans to businesses, respondents to the July survey, on balance, reported easier standards and stronger demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes over the second quarter.2 For commercial real estate (CRE), standards on multifamily and construction and land development loans eased, while standards on loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential properties remained basically unchanged. Banks reported stronger demand for all CRE loan categories.For loans to households, banks eased standards across most categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans, on net, and reported stronger demand for most types of RRE loans over the second quarter. Banks also eased standards and reported stronger demand across all three consumer loan categories – credit card loans, auto loans, and other consumer loans.This graph on Residnetial Real Estate lending is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts.This shows that banks have eased standards (tightened for subprime), and that there is increased demand for RRE loans.
Mortgage revenue settling back to ‘normal times’ At many banks, mortgage revenue took a hit in the second quarter as last year’s crush of refinancing activity ended, and stronger competition led to lower margins on the sale of loans.Falling interest rates in recent weeks may reverse some of the pressure, encouraging more homeowners to refinance and continue to fuel demand for new home purchases. But last quarter’s softer mortgage revenues are an indication that the record-setting figures in the second half of 2020 were an outlier, according to bankers and analysts.”We essentially are returning to more normal times in mortgage,” said Jim Mabry, chief financial officer at the $16 billion-asset Renasant Corp. in Mississippi, where net gains on mortgage loan sales fell by nearly half in the second quarter.
Cadence Bank warned on fair lending, in settlement talks with DOJ -Cadence Bancorp in Houston is in settlement talks with the Justice Department over an investigation into potential violations of fair-lending laws, according to a regulatory filing by the bank Monday. The bank made the disclosure as it is in the process of being acquired by the $24 billion-asset BancorpSouth Bank in Tupelo, Mississippi. BancorpSouth has supported Cadence’s discussions with the Justice Department, according to the filing.The $18.7 billion-asset Cadence received a letter from the Justice Department on July 21 warning of a potential lawsuit, alleging that Fair Housing Act and Equal Credit Opportunity Act violations took place in the Houston market between 2013 and 2017, the filing stated.
Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for June; Large Number of Forbearance Plans Expire in Sept and Oct – Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for June today. According to Black Knight, 4.37% of mortgage were delinquent in June, down from 4.73% of mortgages in May, and down from 7.59% in June 2020. Black Knight also reported that 0.27% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.36% a year ago. This gives a total of 5.01% delinquent or in foreclosure. Press Release: Black Knight: Servicers Face Operational Challenge of Processing Up To 18,000 Forbearance Plans Per Day as Newly Detailed Forbearance Timelines Frontload Expirations to the FallToday, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based upon the company’s industry-leading mortgage, real estate and public records datasets. Considering recently updated forbearance expiration timelines announced by FHFA, FHA, VA, and USDA, this month’s report looks at the impact of the many varying allowable forbearance periods. “Prior to the agencies issuing clarifying guidance on allowable forbearance periods, some 950,000 plans were set to expire over the final six months of the year – representing about half of all loans in forbearance,” said Graboske. “That estimate assumed a blanket 18-month maximum allowable forbearance period. However, now we have detailed matrices of differing forbearance periods across the various agencies. Depending upon the specific agency and when forbearance was initially requested by the homeowner, a plan can have a 6-, 12-, 15- or 18-month limit. Assuming borrowers stay in for the maximum allowable term, this means plans that started as much as seven months apart are now scheduled to expire simultaneously, frontloading expirations of forbearance plans sooner than estimated. “As a result, 65% of active plans – representing approximately 1.2 million homeowners – are now set to expire over the rest of 2021, including nearly 80% of all FHA and VA loans in forbearance. Nearly three quarters of a million plans would expire in September and October alone. Over the course of just two months this fall, the nation’s mortgage servicers would have to process up to approximately 18,000 expiring plans per business day, guiding borrowers through complex loss mitigation waterfalls directed by changing regulatory requirements. The operational challenge this represents is staggering, even before noting the oversized share of FHA and VA loans. Here is a graph on delinquencies from Black Knight: After a calendar-related setback in May, mortgage delinquencies returned to their trend of improvement in June, falling to 4.37% from 4.73% the month prior The national delinquency rate is now back below its 2000-2005 pre-Great Recession average for this time of year and currently stands 1.17 percentage points above the record low reached just before the onset of the pandemic While the overall delinquency rate remains on pace to return to pre-pandemic levels by early 2022, serious delinquencies continue to improve at a much slower rate There is much more in the mortgage monitor.
MBA Survey: “Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Slightly Decreases to 3.47%”– Note: This is as of July 25th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Slightly Decreases to 3.47%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 1 basis point from 3.48% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 3.47% as of July 25, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 1.74 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 2 basis points to 1.79%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 5 basis points to 4.30%, while the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 6 basis points to 7.44%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 1 basis point to 3.67%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers decreased 2 basis points to 3.59%.”Forbearance exits remained low, and there was another increase in new forbearance requests, particularly for Ginnie Mae and portfolio and PLS loans. The net result was another slight decline in the share of loans in forbearance,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “While the overall number of loans in forbearance has changed little in recent weeks, forbearance re-entries have increased, reaching 7.2% this week. Recent economic data continue to show improvement, but it’s clear many homeowners in forbearance still need the relief that is being provided.” This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April 2020, and has trended down since then.The MBA notes: “Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) increased relative to the prior week: from 0.04% to 0.06%.”
CoreLogic: House Prices up 17.2% Year-over-year in June – The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports Annual Home Price Growth of 17.2% – the Highest Level Since the Late-1970s Despite the economic ups and downs brought on by the pandemic, the housing market is still going strong. As supply and demand pressures endure and construction costs spike, in June, home price gains reached the highest annual growth since 1979. While affordability challenges intensify, low mortgage rates, rising savings and an improving labor market are helping to keep homeownership within reach for many prospective buyers. However, CoreLogic projects home price gains may slow over the next 12 months as demand moderates and for-sale inventory rises.”Home prices have been rising in the mid-single digits for some years now. The recent surge to double-digit price jumps reflect the convergence of exceptional demand and persistent low supply,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “With plenty of cash on the sidelines, along with very low mortgage rates, prices are heading up and affordability will become a more acute issue for the foreseeable future.”…Nationally, home prices increased 17.2% in June 2021, compared to June 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 2.3% compared to May 2021….”The pandemic sparked an increase in buyer desire for lower density neighborhoods and more living space – both inside and outside their home,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “Communities with single-family detached houses fill this need. Detached homes had the highest annual growth in June since the inception of the CoreLogic Home Price Index in 1976.”
NY Fed Q2 Report: Total Household Debt Increased in Q2 2021 – From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Climbs in Q2 2021, New Extensions of Credit Hit Series Highs: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued itsQuarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit . The report shows that total household debt increased by $313 billion (2.1%) to $14.96 trillion in the second quarter of 2021. The total debt balance is now $812 billion higher than at the end of 2019. The 2.1% increase in aggregate balances was the largest seen since Q4 2013 and marked the largest nominal increase in debt balances since Q2 2007. The Report is based on data from the New York Fed’s Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative random sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data.Mortgage balances – the largest component of household debt – rose by $282 billion and stood at $10.44 trillion at the end of June. Credit card balances started to tick back up, increasing by $17 billion in the second quarter. Despite the increase, credit card balances were still $140 billion lower than they had been at the end of 2019. Auto loans increased by $33 billion, while student loan balances decreased by $14 billion. In total, non-housing balances (including credit card, auto loan, student loan, and other debts) grew by $44 billion, with increases in auto loans and credit card balances offsetting the decline in student loan balances.Here are two graphs from the report: The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q2. Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn’t a huge decline in debt during the pandemic. From the NY Fed: Aggregate household debt balances increased by $313 billion in the second quarter of 2021, a 2.1% rise from 2021Q1, and now stand at $14.96 trillion. Balances are $812 billion higher than at the end of 2019 and $691 billion higher than 2020Q2. The 2.1% increase in aggregate balances was the largest seen since 2013Q4 and marked the largest nominal increase in debt balances since 2007Q2.The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency. The overall delinquency rate decreased in Q2. From the NY Fed:Aggregate delinquency rates have remained low and declining since the beginning of the pandemic recession, reflecting an uptake in forbearances (provided by both the CARES Act and voluntarily offered by lenders), which protect borrowers’ credit records from the reporting of skipped or deferred payments. As of late June, 2.7% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, a 2.0 percentage point decrease from the fourth quarter of 2019, just before the Covid pandemic hit the United States. Of the $405 billion of debt that is delinquent, $316 billion is seriously delinquent (at least 90 days late or “severely derogatory”, which includes some debts that have been removed from lenders’ books but upon which they continue to attempt collection). The third graph shows Mortgage Originations by Credit Score. From the NY Fed: Median mortgage origination credit scores were roughly flat, with the median credit score of newly originated mortgages at 786, reflecting a continuing high quality of underwriting standards and higher shares of refinances. … There was $1.22 trillion in newly originated mortgage debt in 2021Q2, with 71% of it originated to borrowers with credit scores over 760. There is much more in the report.
Construction Spending increased 0.1% in June – From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased:Construction spending during June 2021 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,552.2 billion, 0.1 percent above the revised May estimate of $1,551.2 billion. The June figure is 8.2 percent above the June 2020 estimate of $1,435.0 billion. Private spending increased and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,215.2 billion, 0.4 percentabove the revised May estimate of $1,210.3 billion. …In June, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $337.0 billion, 1.2 percent below the revised May estimate of $340.9 billion. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential spending is 13% above the bubble peak (in nominal terms – not adjusted for inflation).Non-residential spending is 9% above the bubble era peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars), but has been weak recently.Public construction spending is 4% above the previous peak in March 2009, and 29% above the austerity low in February 2014, but weak recently. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 29.3%. Non-residential spending is down 6.0% year-over-year. Public spending is down 7.5% year-over-year. Construction was considered an essential service in most areas and did not decline sharply like many other sectors, but some sectors of non-residential have been under pressure. For example, lodging is down 26.5% YoY, multi-retail down 5.2% YoY, and office down 9.1% YoY. This was below consensus expectations of a 0.4% increase in spending, however construction spending for the previous two months was revised up slightly.
Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down Year-over-year -Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through Aug 3rd. Lumber is currently at $611 per 1000 board feet. This is down from a peak of $1,733, and down from $647 a year ago.Lumber price are down 6% year-over-year.There were supply constraints over the last year, for example, sawmills cut production and inventory at the beginning of the pandemic, and the West Coast fires in 2020 damaged privately-owned timberland. The supply constraints have eased somewhat. And there was a huge surge in demand for lumber (demand remains strong).
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 6% Compared to Same Week in 2019 -Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019. The occupancy rate is down 6.2% compared to the same week in 2019.From CoStar: STR: US Weekly Occupancy Down, But Rates Increase From Prior Week : U.S. weekly hotel occupancy dipped from the previous week, while room rates were up slightly, according to STR’s latest data through July 31.
July 25-31, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
Occupancy: 70.1% (-6.2%)
Average daily rate (ADR): $142.76 (+6.8%)
Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $100.07 (+0.1%)
ADR remained at an all-time high on a nominal basis but not when adjusted for inflation ($135).*Due to the steep, pandemic-driven performance declines of 2020, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. With solid leisure travel, the Summer months have had decent occupancy – but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel.July Vehicles Sales Decreased to 14.75 Million SAAR -The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for July this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 14.75 million SAAR in July 2021 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 4.1% from the June sales rate, and up 0.3% from July 2020. This was well below the consensus estimate of 15.7 million SAAR. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and the BEA’s estimate for July (red).The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month. After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic). However, sales have decreased recently due to supply issues.Sales-to-date are down 2.4% compared to the same period in 2019.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.
Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 14.75 million SAAR.
ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 59.5% in July – The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in July. The PMI was at 59.5% in July, down from 60.6% in June. The employment index was at 52.9%, up from 49.9% last month, and the new orders index was at 64.9%, down from 66.0%.From ISM: July 2021 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in July, with the overall economy notching a 14th consecutive month of growth,:”The July Manufacturing PMI registered 59.5 percent, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the June reading of 60.6 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 14th month in a row after contraction in April 2020. The New Orders Index registered 64.9 percent, decreasing 1.1 percentage points from the June reading of 66 percent. The Production Index registered 58.4 percent, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points compared to the June reading of 60.8 percent. The Prices Index registered 85.7 percent, down 6.4 percentage points compared to the June figure of 92.1 percent, which was the index’s highest reading since July 1979 (93.1 percent). The Backlog of Orders Index registered 65 percent, 0.5 percentage point higher than the June reading of 64.5 percent. The Employment Index registered 52.9 percent, 3 percentage points higher compared to the June reading of 49.9 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 72.5 percent, down 2.6 percentage points from the June figure of 75.1 percent. The Inventories Index registered 48.9 percent, 2.2 percentage points lower than the June reading of 51.1 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 55.7 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point compared to the June reading of 56.2 percent. The Imports Index registered 53.7 percent, a 7.3-percentage point decrease from the June reading of 61 percent.”This was below expectations. This suggests manufacturing expanded at a slower pace in July than in June.
Manufacturing sector continues to be on fire; but real construction spending plunges –August data started out mixed. The ISM manufacturing index continued to show strong expansion. Both the overall and new orders components declined slightly m/m, but at 59.5 and 64.9 remained far about the breakeven point between expansion and contractions of 50.0: The simplest way to read this is that the manufacturing sector remains on fire.The story is different with this morning’s release of June construction spending. Total nominal spending increased 0.1%, and spending in the long leading residential construction sector increased 1.1%, the former less than 0.1% below its all time record from a few months ago, and the latter to the highest level ever: But when we deflate by the cost of construction materials, that increase disappears, and in fact shows a plunge, down -3.6% and -2.7% monthly, respectively:In other words, in real terms construction has been faltering badly. This is a substantial negative indicator for spending in the second half of 2022.
July Markit Manufacturing: Record High, Also Record Supply Delays and Price Pressures -The July US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index conducted by Markit came in at 63.4, up from the final June figure and a record high Here is an excerpt from Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit in their latest press release:“July saw manufacturers and their suppliers once again struggle to meet booming demand, leading to a further record jump in both raw material and finished goods prices.“Despite reporting another surge in production, supported by rising payroll numbers, output continued to lag well behind order book growth to one of the greatest extents in the survey’s 14-year history, leading to a near-record build-up of uncompleted orders.“Capacity is being constrained by yet another unprecedented lengthening of supply chains, with delivery delays reported far more widely in the past two months than at any time prior in the survey’s history. Manufacturers and their customers are consequently striving to mainatain adequate inventory levels, often reporting the building of safety stocks where supply permits, to help keep production lines running and satisfy surging sales.“The result is perhaps the strongest sellers’ market that we’ve seen since the survey began in 2007, with suppliers hiking prices for inputs into factories at the steepest rate yet recorded and manufacturers able to raise their selling prices to an unprecedented extent, as both suppliers and producers often encounter little price resistance from customers.” [Press Release] Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.
Trade Deficit Increased to $75.7 Billion in June – From the Department of Commerce reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $75.7 billion in June, up $4.8 billion from $71.0 billion in May, revised. June exports were $207.7 billion, $1.2 billion more than May exports. June imports were $283.4 billion, $6.0 billion more than May imports. Exports and imports increased in June. Exports are up 31% compared to June 2020; imports are up 35% compared to June 2020. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports more than exports), The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, imports and exports of petroleum products are close to zero. The trade deficit with China decreased to $27.8 billion in June, from $28.3 billion in June 2020.
U.S. Trade Deficit Widened to Record in June, Showing Strong Pre-Delta Demand – WSJ – The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record in June as the resurgent American economy drove strong demand for foreign-made goods ahead of the Covid-19 Delta-variant surge. The trade gap in goods and services expanded 6.7% from May to a seasonally adjusted $75.7 billion, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Before the pandemic, the monthly trade deficit had hovered for years between $40 billion and $50 billion. The trade report is another example of how American consumers and businesses have stepped up spending and investment as the economy has recovered to its pre-Covid-19 size, fueling demand for imports. Purchases from overseas climbed 2.1% in June to $283.4 billion, also a monthly record. Exports have grown more slowly, reflecting weaker recoveries in some other regions that have made less progress against Covid-19. Exports rose in June by just 0.6% to $207.7 billion. The trade data, and separate labor-market readings, come as the economic recovery faces risks from the Delta variant, supply-chain constraints and a shortage of available workers. The trade report for June covered a period before the Delta variant began its spread in the U.S. By the end of June, Covid-19 cases were still very low, but the re-emergence of the virus has cast a shadow over the broader economic outlook. The rise of the Delta variant underscores a fault line that has emerged in the global economy between advanced economies with high vaccination rates and emerging markets where the rates have lagged behind. The International Monetary Fund last week raised its growth forecasts for the U.S. and other advanced economies while lowering the outlook for emerging-market countries especially in Asia. The dynamic has helped widen the U.S. trade deficit to unprecedented levels this year, as the American economy continues to pull in more goods from abroad. Several rounds of government stimulus payments also have left Americans with plenty of cash to spend, while weakened trade partners limit purchases of U.S. goods and services. The pre-pandemic record for the monthly deficit came in August 2006, with a $68 billion deficit, during an era when U.S. demand for high-price petroleum was the critical driver of the deficit. The increase in imports in June was led by purchases of industrial supplies, iron and steel-mill products, organic chemicals, and nonmonetary gold, which includes gold for industrial use, Thursday’s Commerce Department report showed. Separate reports have shown that manufacturers had a strong month in June, with the Federal Reserve’s industrial production index reaching its highest level since the pandemic struck in 2020. The Institute for Supply Management’s monthly report on manufacturing, released Monday, said that new orders for manufacturers have been strong, suggesting strength in the sector continued through the summer. Imports of consumer goods declined slightly in June, driven primarily by a drop in pharmaceutical imports. The emergence of the Delta variant and the shift away from consumer goods toward services, which are mostly domestically produced, has led some economists to project that the deficit could begin to decline.
A Trucking Crisis Has the U.S. Looking for More Drivers Abroad – A shortage of truckers across the U.S. has become so severe that companies are trying to bring in drivers from abroad like seemingly never before. For the first time in her 10-year trucking career, Holly McCormick has found herself coordinating with an agency in South Africa to source foreign drivers. A recruiter for Groendyke Transport, McCormick has doubled her budget since the pandemic and is still having trouble finding candidates. The U.S. has been grappling with a chronic lack of drivers for years, but the shortage reached crisis levels because of the pandemic, which simultaneously sent demand for shipped goods soaring while touching off a surge in early retirements. The consequences have been both dire and far-reaching: Filling stations have had gasoline outages. Airports have run short on jet fuel. A stainless-steel maker declared force majeure. And lumber prices hit a record, with some suppliers partly blaming delivery delays. As McCormick put it: “If we’re not able to haul these goods, our economy virtually shuts down.” Trucking has emerged as one of the most acute bottlenecks in a supply chain that has all but unraveled amid the pandemic, worsening supply shortages across industries, further fanning inflation and threatening a broader economic recovery. “We’re living through the worst driver shortage that we’ve seen in recent history, by far,” As a result, demand for Visa Solutions’ services from the trucking industry has more than doubled since before the pandemic, and “this is 100% because of the driver shortage,” he said. Bringing in more foreign workers faces a number of hurdles including visa limits and complicated immigration rules, but trucking advocates see an opening now to overcome some of those obstacles after the Biden Administration created a task force to address the supply chain problems impeding the economic recovery. In July, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, and Meera Joshi, deputy administrator of the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, held a roundtable meeting with the trucking industry to discuss efforts to improve driver retention and reduce turnover. Among the measures the industry is seeking is lowering the minimum age to 18 from 21 for interstate drivers and adding trucking to the list of industries that can bypass some of the Department of Labor’s immigration certification process. That would be a boon to Andre LeBlanc, vice president of operations at Petroleum Marketing Group, which oversees fuel delivery to around 1,300 gas stations, mostly in the northeast. Some of those depots have seen shortages for as many as 12 hours because “we simply can’t re-supply them because we don’t have the qualified drivers,” he said, estimating the group needs about 40 more to run at full capacity. Meanwhile, of the 24 drivers LeBlanc has tried to hire through a federal immigration program, only three have gotten through all steps of the verification process.. “We can’t seem to get an answer on what we need to do to move that forward.”
Spirit passengers stranded after airline cancels 30 percent of flights – Spirit Airlines canceled 261 flights Monday after having canceled 165 on Sunday, with hundreds of delays being also being reported on both days,according to USA Today.Passengers said they waited hours for refunds and other customer service assistance, with some even noting that they resorted to camping out.”It looked like a hurricane shelter,” traveler Rebecca Osborn told USA Today of her experience with Spirit at Orlando International Airport. Osborn and her boyfriend, Eddie Gordon, were traveling home to Philadelphia after they arrived in Orlando from a vacation in Puerto Rico. When they arrived at the Florida airport, they were faced with a series of delays before their flight was ultimately canceled.”There were people everywhere: little kids, old people,” Gordon said of the line of people requesting a refund once the flight was canceled. “They never came out and gave any type of explanation or offered anything.””We’re working around the clock to get back on track in the wake of some travel disruptions over the weekend due to a series of weather and operational challenges,” Spirit Airlines spokesman Erik Hofmeyer said in an email.The travel disruptions follow a number of similar incidents this summer from other airlines. American Airlines canceled hundreds of flights in June due to a heavy uptick in travel, labor shortages and weather. Southwest, Delta and Alaska Airlines also dealt with flight delays and cancellations as a result of technical issues earlier in the summer.
ISM Services Index Increased to 64.1% in July –The July ISM Services index was at 64.1%, up from 60.1% last month. The employment index increased to 53.8%, from 49.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: July 2021 Services ISM Report On Business“The Services PMI registered another all-time high of 64.1 percent, which is 4 percentage points higher than the June reading of 60.1 and eclipses the previous record of 64 percent in May 2021. The July reading indicates the 14th straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 138 months.”The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 72 percent, up 3.5 percentage points from June’s reading of 68.5 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM Report On Business index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Prices Index registered 82.3 percent, up 2.8 percentage points from the June figure of 79.5 percent and its second-highest reading ever, behind September 2005 (83.5 percent). “According to the Services PMI, 17 services industries reported growth. The composite index indicated growth for the 14th consecutive month after a two-month contraction in April and May 2020. The rate of expansion in the services sector recorded another all-time high. The Employment Index reflected growth, even though the constrained labor pool continues to be an issue. Materials shortages, inflation and logistics continue to negatively impact the continuity of supply,” says Nieves.This was above the consensus forecast, and the employment index increased to 53.8%, from 49.3% the previous month.
US Services Surveys Signal Stagflation As Prices Soar – After a mixed bag on the Manufacturing side, (ISM at 2021 lows; PMI at record high), the Services sector did the same… but mirrored.Markit’s Services sector survey slipped to its weakest since February (down from 64.6 to 59.9 in the final July print)ISM’s Services sector roared back from weakness in June to a record high (up from 60.1 to 64.1) This mixed message ignores the continuing trend in weaker than expected macro data for the US… As the ‘hope’ in Services tumbles back to reality… Inflationary pressures remained substantial at the start of the third quarter. Input costs rose markedly, and at one of the fastest rates on record amid significant supplier delays and material shortages.Private sector firms noted further efforts to pass on higher costs, where possible, to their clients. As a result, output charges rose at the third-steepest pace since data collection began in October 2009.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 385,000 –The DOL reported:: In the week ending July 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 385,000, a decrease of 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 400,000 to 399,000. The 4-week moving average was 394,000, a decrease of 250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 394,500 to 394,250.This does not include the 94,476 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 93,060 the previous week.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 394,000.The previous week was revised down.Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,930,000 (SA) from 3,296,000 (SA) the previous week.Note: There are an additional 5,156,982 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 5,246,162 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And an additional 4,246,207 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) up from 4,233,883.Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.
Initial jobless claims continue in range, while continuing claims sharply decline -Initial jobless claims declined another 14,000 this week to 385,000, still 17,000 above their best pandemic levels of 368,000 set on June 26 and July 10. The 4 week average of claims declined by 250 to 394,000, also 9,500 above its pandemic low set on July 11:Significant progress in the decline of initial claims remains stalled, as it has for the last 2 months.The story is quite different for continuing claims, which declined 366,000 to a new pandemic low of 2,930,000:This series, which had also been near a stall, now looks to have begun a new slow declining trend on May 29, and to have accelerated this week. This may reflect the termination of special pandemic benefits in many States, the impact of $15 minimum wages and signing bonuses being offered, or other items.From the long term perspective, this level of continuing claims is consistent with early to mid-expansions over the past 40 years (graph subtracts -2,930,000 so that current level = 0): The decline in continuing claims is good news, provided those whose claims have ended are able to start new jobs, and not just being arbitrarily tossed to the economic wolves. My best guess is that August and September will not be good months, as Delta burns through the dry tinder.
ADP: Private Employment increased 330,000 in July —From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 330,000 jobs from June to July according to the July ADP National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. “The labor market recovery continues to exhibit uneven progress, but progress nonetheless. July payroll data reports a marked slowdown from the second quarter pace in jobs growth,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “For the fifth straight month the leisure and hospitality sector is the fastest growing industry, though gains have softened. The slowdown in the recovery has also impacted companies of all sizes. Bottlenecks in hiring continue to hold back stronger gains, particularly in light of new COVID-19 concerns tied to viral variants. These barriers should ebb in coming months, with stronger monthly gains ahead as a result.” This was well below the consensus forecast of 675,000 for this report.
Jobs report July 2021: Payrolls increase by 943,000, unemployment rate slides – Hiring rose in July at its fastest pace in nearly a year despite fears over Covid-19’s delta variant and as companies struggled with a tight labor supply, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 943,000 for the month while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4%, according to the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. The payroll increase was the best since August 2020.Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 845,000 new jobs and a headline unemployment rate of 5.7%. However, estimates were diverse amid conflicting headwinds and tailwinds and an uncertain path ahead for the economy.Average hourly earnings also increased more than expected, rising 0.4% for the month and are up 4% from the same period a year ago, at a time when concerns are increasing about persistent inflationary pressures.”The data for recent months suggest that the rising demand for labor associated with the recovery from the pandemic may have put upward pressure on wages,” the BLS said in the report, though it cautioned that the Covid impact is still skewing data and wage gains are uneven across industries.Markets reacted positively to the report, with the Dow and S&P 500 hitting new record highs at the open Friday morning.”It feels like a Goldilocks report. You have not too hot in terms of wages, but not too low in terms of job gains,” The drop in the headline unemployment rate looked even stronger considering that the labor force participation rate ticked up to 61.7%, tied for the highest level since the pandemic hit in March 2020. A separate calculation that includes discouraged workers and those holding jobs part-time for economic reasons fell even further, to 9.2% from 9.8% in June. As has been the case for the past several months, leisure and hospitality led job creation, adding 380,000 positions, of which 253,000 came in bars and restaurants. The sector took the hardest hit during the pandemic but has been showing consistent gains during the economic reopening.The unemployment rate for leisure and hospitality tumbled to 9% in July from 10.9% in June and compared to 25% a year earlier, though there are still about 1.8 million fewer workers than prior to the pandemic. Wages in the sector rose 1.2% month over month and are up 3.1% from a year earlier.Education also showed strong gains, with 261,000 new hires. The BLS cautioned, however, that the pandemic has distorted the sector’s numbers and likely elevated the number for July. That also left private payrolls up 703,000 for the month, about in line with expectations.Professional and business services contributed 60,000, and transportation and warehousing added 50,000. Sectors also showing increases were other services (39,000), health care (37,000), manufacturing (27,000), information (24,000), financial activities (22,000) and mining (7,000). Retail posted a loss of 6,000 while construction and wholesale trade were flat. Jobs report will cause big shift in stock market leaders, says Leuthold’s Jim PaulsenThe numbers come amid a rush of new coronavirus cases in the U.S. and around the world, with the most serious illnesses happening in areas with larger unvaccinated populations. The increase has raised fears that it could slow economic activity in a recovery that began in April 2020 and has shown resilience despite the periodic flareups of Covid cases.At the same time, the U.S. is fighting a continuing battle with a scarcity of labor.Job placement site Indeed estimated there were 9.8 million job openings as of July 16, far more than the 8.7 million considered unemployed. In a survey of 5,000 job seekers, however, the amount of those citing health concerns as a reason for not looking for a job declined, with a growing number citing a lack of need due to a financial cushion as the top response.The unemployment rate has tumbled from pandemic high of 14.8% but remains well above the 3.5% before the crisis. Federal Reserve policymakers have vowed to keep ultra-easy monetary policy in place until they see stronger signs of full employment, though Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin on Thursday criticized the central bank, saying it was risking runaway inflation in its jobs quest.July’s job gains added to an overall positive climate for employment. May’s numbers were revised up by 31,000 to 614,000, while the June count increased 88,000 to 938,000, for a total gain of 119,000.
July Employment Report: 943 Thousand Jobs, 5.4% Unemployment Rate — From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 943,000 in July, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.5 percentage point to 5.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in local government education, and in professional and business services. … The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised up by 31,000, from +583,000 to +614,000, and the change for June was revised up by 88,000, from +850,000 to +938,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 119,000 higher than previously reported.The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In July, the year-over-year change was 7.255 million jobs. This was up significantly year-over-year. Total payrolls increased by 943 thousand in June. Private payrolls increased by 703 thousand. Payrolls for May and June were revised up 119 thousand, combined. The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms. The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the “Great Recession”. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 61.7% in June, from 61.6% in June. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.4% from 58.0% (black line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate decreased in July to 5.4% from 5.9% in June. This was slightly above consensus expectations, and May and June were revised up by 119,000 combined.
July jobs report: more like this, please While the NBER has declared that the recession ended in April 2020, and income, sales, and GDP have all fully recovered, two of the series that the NBER uses have yet to have made a full recovery: Industrial production, still down -1.2% compared with February 2020, and employment, still down -4.4% as of the jobs report last month. So the main questions for this month’s jobs report for July are how much of that 4.4% has been made up, and do the leading indicators in the report continue to suggest more growth ahead? Here’s my synopsis of the report:
- 943,000 jobs added. Of these, 703,000 were private sector jobs, and 240,000 were government jobs, 220,700 in local education alone. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a gain of 1,043,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below.
- The total number of employed is still -5,702,000, or -3.7% below its pre-pandemic peak. At this rate jobs have grown this year, it will take another 10 months for employment to completely recover.
- U3 unemployment rate declined -0.5% to 5.4%, compared with the January 2020 low of 3.5%.
- U6 underemployment rate declined -0.6% to 9.2%, compared with the January 2020 low of 6.9%.
- Those on temporary layoff declined -572,000 to 1,239,000.
- Permanent job losers declined -257,000 to 2,930,000.
- May was revised upward by 31,000, while June was revised upward by 88,000, for a net gain of 119,000 jobs compared with previous reports.
- the average manufacturing workweek increased 0.2 hours to 40.5 hours. This is one of the 10 components of the LEI.
- Manufacturing jobs increased 27,000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, manufacturing has still lost -433,000 jobs, or -3.4% of the total.
- Construction jobs increased 11,000. Since the beginning of the pandemic, -227,000 construction jobs have been lost, or -3.0% of the total.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 8,300. Since the beginning of the pandemic, 42,700 jobs have been *gained* in this sector, or 5.1%.
- temporary jobs rose by 9,700. Since the beginning of the pandemic, there have still been 252,800 jobs lost, or -9.8% of all temporary jobs.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less increased by 276,000 to 2,257,000, which is 175,000 higher than just before the pandemic hit.
- Professional and business employment increased by 60,000, which is still -556,000, or about -2.6%, below its pre-pandemic peak.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel: rose $0.11 to $25.83, which is a 4.7% YoY gain. This is excellent news, considering that a huge number of low-wage workers have finally been recalled to work.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose by 0.7%, which is a loss of -3.3% since just before the pandemic.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose by 1.1%, which is a gain of 4.2% since just before the pandemic.
- Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, increased 380,000, but is still -1,737,000, or -10.3% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments gained 253,200, but is still -969,000, or -7.9% below their pre-pandemic peak.
- Full time jobs increased 1,265,000 in the household report.
- Part time jobs decreased -250,000 in the household report.
- The number of job holders who were part time for economic reasons declined by 144,000 to 4,483,000, which is an increase of 85,000 since before the pandemic began.
SUMMARY: This was an excellent report on virtually every front. I really can’t find any negatives or particularly soft spots. Not just the totals, but the leading internals were all positive to very positive, including leading job sectors and wages. Full time jobs increased strongly, and even the decline in part time jobs was really a sign of strength.The only *relatively* negative thing I can say about this report is, in response to the questions I asked at the top, that, even at this rate, it will take until the middle of next year to fully recover to where we were just before the pandemic. In particular, the leisure and hospitality sector, which was particularly hard-hit by the pandemic, still has a long ways to go.In short, more like this, please.
Comments on July Employment Report — The headline jobs number in the July employment report was slightly above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up significantly. The participation rate increased slightly and the unemployment rate decreased sharply to 5.4%. Leisure and hospitality gained 380 thousand jobs. In March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 1.7 million jobs since February 2020. So leisure and hospitality has now added back almost 79% of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Construction employment increased 11 thousand in June, and manufacturing added 27 thousand jobs. NOTE: State and Local education added 231 thousand jobs, seasonally adjusted. But this is a seasonal quirk – there were actually 962 thousand education jobs lost in July NSA, but that was fewer than normal for July – since fewer teachers were hired last year (and possibly an increase in summer teaching employment) – so seasonally adjusted this showed a gain. Earlier: July Employment Report: 943 Thousand Jobs, 5.4% Unemployment Rate. In July, the year-over-year employment change was 7.255 million jobs. This turned positive in April due to the sharp jobs losses in April 2020. This graph shows permanent job losers as a percent of the pre-recession peak in employment through the report today. (ht Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg). This data is only available back to 1994, so there is only data for three recessions. In July, the number of permanent job losers decreased to 2.930 million from 3.187 million in June.These jobs will likely be the hardest to recover. Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The prime working age will be key as the economy recovers. The 25 to 54 participation rate increased in July to 81.8% from 81.7% in June, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 77.8% from 77.2% in June. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in July to 4.483 million from 4.627 million in June. This is back close to pre-recession levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 9.2% from 9.8% in June. This is down from the record high in April 22.9% for this measure since 1994. This measure was at 7.0% in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 3.425 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 3.985 million in June. This does not include all the people that left the labor force. This will be a key measure to follow during the recovery. Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was slightly above expectations, and the previous two months were revised up by 119,000 combined. And the headline unemployment rate decreased to 5.4%. There are still 5.7 million fewer jobs than prior to the recession, but overall this was a strong report.
Black women face a persistent pay gap, including in essential occupations during the pandemic -EPI Blog – This year, Black Women’s Equal Pay Day arrives 10 days earlier than in 2020 (August 13). If this seems inconsistent with current realities, it is. That’s because the August 3, 2021 date is based on the comparison of median annual earnings for full-time, year-round workers reported in the 2020 Annual Social and Economic Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Since the reference year in that survey is the previous year – 2019 – the earlier date is more a statement about pay equity during the pre-COVID period of historically low unemployment than the impact of the pandemic. Based on hourly wages available for 2020, the pandemic’s effect on pay inequality in 2020 is challenging to interpret since job losses were concentrated among low-wage occupations, which has the effect of skewing the distribution toward a higher average that is less representative of the workforce as a whole. These lower-paying jobs were concentrated in leisure and hospitality and education and health services – industries that employ a disproportionate share of women.In fact, the pandemic’s effect on pay equity during 2020 is less about a relative difference in dollars per hour and more a matter of a disproportionate share of women – and Black women in particular – becoming unemployed and thus wageless. Nearly 1 in 5 Black women (18.3%) lost their jobs between February 2020 and April 2020, compared with 13.2% of white men (see figure below). As of June 2021, Black women’s employment was still 5.1 percentage points below February 2020 levels, while white men were down 3.7 percentage points. The fact that we are talking about this every year reflects the stubborn, structural nature of pay inequities which is manifold. Occupational segregation limits Black women’s access to higher-paying occupations. But, even when employed in the same occupation, pay discrimination results in lower earnings for women relative to men, including among essential workers as we show below. The lack of a national paid leave policy means that women are more likely to take unpaid time out of the workforce and have breaks in their work and earnings history. The combination of these factors means that, on average, women start their careers with a pay gap that they are never able to close. The infographics below take a closer look at average hourly earnings of Black women and non-Hispanic white men employed in major occupations at the center of national efforts to address the public health and economic effects of COVID-19, based on our previous analysis of CPS microdata from 2014-2019. These occupations include front-line workers in health care and essential businesses like grocery stores, those who have borne the brunt of job losses in the restaurant industry, and teachers and child care workers. As these figures show, equal pay for Black women workers is long overdue.
Amazon to Require Masks for Warehouse Workers as Delta Variant Surges – WSJ – Amazon.com Inc. said all workers at its hundreds of U.S. warehouses will have to wear masks starting Monday, expanding a more limited requirement in response to the resurgent Covid-19 threat posed by the Delta variant.Amazon, which employs about a million people in the U.S., currently requires only those warehouse workers not vaccinated against the coronavirus to wear masks, allowing staff who show proof of vaccination to avoid the requirement unless local directives say otherwise.In a memo to employees Friday, the company said the updated policy will apply to all U.S. warehouse facilities, including in locations where local law doesn’t require face coverings. Amazon told staff it hopes the requirement will last only “a few weeks.” “We are monitoring the situation closely and will continue to follow local government guidance and work closely with leading medical healthcare professionals, gathering their advice and recommendations as we go forward to ensure our buildings are optimized for the safety of our teams,” said an Amazon spokeswoman. U.S. businesses have struggled to adjust worker policies in response to the renewed growth in Covid-19 infections from the Delta variant, trying to balance concern for employees’ health and the stability of operations against some workers’ aversion to mandates. Business leaders have tried various tools to get employees vaccinated, including bonuses or other incentives. More than a third of U.S. adults haven’t gotten vaccinated, according to U.S. data.Amazon has stopped short of a step that some U.S. companies have taken: requiring all employees to get a Covid-19 vaccine before returning to company facilities. Friday’s announcement indicated no change to that policy.Other tech giants including Microsoft Corp. , Google and Facebook Inc. – which, unlike Amazon, have predominantly white-collar workforces – have mandated vaccines for employees and guests at their facilities, as have some companies with broader workforces, including meatpacker Tyson Foods Inc.
Kaiser Permanente requires its nearly 250,000 U.S. employees to be vaccinated. -With the rapid spread of the Delta variant fueling a rise in infections across the United States, Kaiser Permanente, the Oakland, Calif., – based health care giant, announced on Monday that it would require all its employees and physicians to be fully vaccinated.”Making vaccination mandatory is the most effective way we can protect our people, our patients and our communities,” Greg A. Adams, chair and chief executive officer of Kaiser Foundation Hospitals and Health Plan, Inc., said in a statement.The announcement came as infections from the Delta variant have rapidly spread in areas with low vaccination rates, and as 70 percent of eligible U.S. adults have received at least one vaccine dose.Kaiser’s health care network includes 39 hospitals, more than 700 medical offices and a work force of more than 23,000 physicians and more than 216,000 other employees.As of July 30, more than 95 percent of Kaiser’s physicians were vaccinated, along with nearly 78 percent of its other employees, according to Mr. Adams. The statement did not indicate how many nurses were vaccinated.The company’s target date for having its entire work force fully vaccinated is Sept. 30.
United becomes first major airline to mandate vaccines for employees – United Airlines will require its U.S. employees to get vaccinated against COVID-19 this fall, becoming the first major airline to implement a vaccine mandate. The airline’s decision came as several corporations announced vaccine requirements for their employees to counter the spread of the highly contagious delta variant. “We know some of you will disagree with this decision to require the vaccine for all United employees,” United CEO Scott Kirby and President Brett Hart told employees in a memo Friday. “But, we have no greater responsibility to you and your colleagues than to ensure your safety when you’re at work, and the facts are crystal clear: everyone is safer when everyone is vaccinated.” United employees will be required to show proof of vaccination five weeks after the Food and Drug Administration grants the COVID-19 vaccines full approval, or Oct. 25, whichever comes first. Federal officials are expected to approve Pfizer’s vaccine by early next month. All of the company’s 67,000 employees will be subject to the vaccine mandate, except for those exempted for medical or religious reasons. “Over the last 16 months, Scott has sent dozens of condolences letters to the family members of United employees who have died from COVID-19,” United’s executives told employees. “We’re determined to do everything we can to try to keep another United family from receiving that letter.” United officials told news outlets that about 80 percent of its flight attendants and 90 percent of its pilots are already vaccinated. In June, United required all newly hired employees to be vaccinated after Delta Air Lines implemented the same measure in May.
Maryland, Virginia to require vaccines for state employees -Maryland and Virginia will be mandating that state employees get vaccinated against the coronavirus.Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam‘s (D) office said in a statement on Thursday that all 122,000 state workers will have to show proof that they are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 by Sept. 1 or be tested for it every week.In a news conference, Northam said it was important to “keep state employees safe and keep the people that we serve safe.””There is no reason why we need to see more suffering and sickness,” he said.Northam didn’t elaborate on what would happen if an employee refuses to follow the mandate, but said he expects them to do so.Officials said that the vaccination rate for state employees matches that of the state overall.Nearly 73 percent of Virginia’s adults ages 18 and over have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 54 percent are fully vaccinated, Northam’s office said. Separately, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) said in a press conference that he will require state employees who work in congregate settings to receive their first vaccine dose by Sept. 1.Employees who are not vaccinated will have to adhere to “strict face covering requirements” and repeated COVID-19 testing.”Please, just get the damn vaccine,” Hogan said. “The vaccines are free, safe, they work, and they are widely available everywhere across the state at thousands of distribution points, including hundreds of pharmacies and primary care providers. The mandate applies to workers in 48 different state facilities, including health care facilities and ones within the state’s Department of Juvenile Services, Department of Public Safety and Correctional Services and Department of Veterans Affairs.Hogan encouraged operators of private nursing homes to institute similar vaccination mandates.
California mandates vaccinations for all health care workers – California is mandating all health care workers be vaccinated against the coronavirus.The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) issued an order on Thursday mandating workers in health care settings be fully inoculated or receive their second dose of a coronavirus vaccine by Sept. 30.The order applies to hospitals, skilled nursing facilities, and other health care facilities such as dialysis centers, hospice facilities, adult psychiatric hospitals, and clinics and doctors’ offices.The order is different than the vaccination mandate that California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) announcedlate last month.Newsom’s mandate, which went into effect Monday, said that state employees and workers in health care and high-risk congregate settings would either have to provide proof of vaccination or submit weekly coronavirus testing.Thursday’s order from the department doesn’t give health care workers the option of being submitted to weekly virus testing.However, it does allow for workers to qualify for either a medical or religious exemption. Employees who receive an exemption would then be submitted to weekly testing and masks requirements.In a statement, CDPH attributed its decision to an increase in coronavirus infections primarily due to the delta variant. The cases are primarily occurring among those that are unvaccinated. “As we continue to see an increase in cases and hospitalizations due to the Delta variant of COVID-19, it’s important that we protect the vulnerable patients in these settings,” Tomfls J. Aragon, CDPH Director and State Public Health Officer said in a statement.”Today’s action will also ensure that health care workers themselves are protected. Vaccines are how we end this pandemic,” Aragon said. In a separate order, CDPH directed hospitals, skilled nursing facilities and intermediate care facilities to verify that visitors are fully vaccinated or tested negative for COVID-19 in the prior 72 hours before a visit.
Governors in N.Y. and N.J. require more public employees to be vaccinated or face testing. – Metropolitan Transportation Authority workers will be required to be vaccinated or face weekly testing, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York announced on Monday, the state’s latest effort to boost lagging vaccination rates amid the rapid spread of the Delta coronavirus variant.The new requirement applies to 68,000 employees of the M.T.A., which operates New York City’s sprawling subway and bus system, as well as commuter rails that serve the city’s surrounding counties.Mr. Cuomo framed the new policy, which goes into effect on Labor Day, as a crucial step to not only help curb the spread of the virus – transit workers interact with millions of riders each day – but also to help improve confidence among riders concerned about their health and safety.”If it spreads aggressively among the unvaccinated, numerically we would have a problem,” said Mr. Cuomo, a third-term Democrat. “Worst case scenario, a large number of unvaccinated get sick and even worse than that, the delta variant mutates into a vaccine resistant virus and now we’re back to where we started.”The policy shift comes less than a week after Mr. Cuomo announced the same requirement for the state’s 130,000 employees, following the lead of Mayor Bill de Blasio, who rolled out a similar mandate for the city’s 300,000 workers. The requirement has rapidly become a model across the nation: President Biden announced a similar policy for the nation’s millions of federal employees on Thursday, too, as other local governments weigh similar mandates.New York State, just weeks after lifting most of its coronavirus restrictions on businesses and social gatherings, has seen a steady rise in cases as a result of the new variant, even as 75 percent of adults in the state have received at least one dose of the vaccine.The state reported a seven-day average of 2,280 cases on Aug. 1, up from an average of just 328 a month ago on July 1. Hospitalizations have also ticked up, while the number of deaths has remained relatively steady, according to The New York Times coronavirus tracker.At the same time, Mr. Cuomo said it was up to local governments, including New York City, to decide whether to adopt the new federal guidance recommending that vaccinated people wear masks indoors publicly in areas where cases are on the rise.The governor also urged private businesses, including bars, restaurants and venues, to require proof of vaccination from their clientele. Here are details of some more recently announced mandates in the United States:
- Gov. Philip D. Murphy of New Jersey said on Monday that all workers in certain state and private health care facilities and high-risk congregate settings, like jails and prisons, will have to be fully inoculated or face regular testing. Employees have until Sept. 7 to comply with the requirement.
- The more than 10,000 municipal employees of Denver, Colo., have to be fully vaccinated against the coronavirus by Sept. 30 or they cannot work on-site, Mayor Michael B. Hancock said on Monday. Private sector employees at schools and congregate care settings, like homeless shelters and correctional facilities, will also need to be vaccinated.
South Carolina and Ohio will not reintroduce public health mandates, governors say. -The Republican governors of South Carolina and Ohio both said on Sunday that they would not renew public health mandates like mask-wearing and social distancing, even as their states continue to battle a raging pandemic.Both states had taken such measures earlier in the pandemic, including declaring a state of emergency.”I really think we have got to stay calm,” Gov. Henry McMaster of South Carolina said on “Fox News Sunday.” “We have put the fire out – it’s smoldering in places and could come back up – but the house is not on fire again.”In recent weeks, coronavirus cases have risen rapidly across the country, enabled by lagging vaccination rates and the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant of the virus. Despite a vaccination push from the Biden administration, public health protocols remain a state-by-state decision. In South Carolina, coronavirus cases increased 258 percent in the past 14 days, and hospitalization and death rates also rose, according to a New York Times database. Mr. McMaster played down those numbers.
Tennessee won’t incentivize Covid shots – but pays to vax cows — – Tennessee has sent nearly half a million dollars to farmers who have vaccinated their cattle against respiratory diseases and other maladies over the past two years. But Republican Gov. Bill Lee, who grew up on his family’s ranch and refers to himself as a cattle farmer in his Twitter profile, has been far less enthusiastic about incentivizing herd immunity among humans. Even though Tennessee has among the lowest vaccination rates in the country, Lee has refused to follow the lead of other states that have offered enticements for people to get the potentially life-saving Covid-19 vaccine. Lee hasn’t always been against incentivizing vaccinations. Tennessee’s Herd Health program began in 2019 under Lee, whose family business, Triple L Ranch, breeds Polled Hereford cattle. The state currently reimburses participating farmers up to $1,500 for vaccinating their herds, handing out $492,561 over the past two fiscal years, according to documents from the Tennessee Agriculture Department. Lee, who so far has avoided drawing a serious Republican primary challenge in his 2022 reelection bid, has been accused of complacency in the face of the deadly pandemic. Tennessee’s vaccination rates for Covid-19 hover at 39 percent of its total population, versus over 49 percent nationally for the fully vaccinated. The state’s Covid hospitalizations have more than tripled over the past three weeks and infections have increased more than five-fold. Speaking at the Tennessee Cattlemen’s Association annual conference on Friday, Lee said he did not think incentives were very effective, WBIR-TV reported. “I don’t think that’s the role of government,” he added. “The role of government is to make it available and then to encourage folks to get a vaccine.” In an emailed reply to a question about the contrast to incentivizing vaccination for cattle, spokesperson Casey Black wrote, “Tennesseans have every incentive to get the Covid-19 vaccine – it’s free and available in every corner of the state with virtually no wait. While a veterinarian can weigh in on safely raising cattle for consumption, the state will continue to provide human Tennesseans with Covid-19 vaccine information and access.”
‘Freedom,’ Florida and the Delta Variant Disaster — Paul Krugman –Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida, isn’t stupid. He is, however, ambitious and supremely cynical. So when he says things that sound stupid it’s worth asking why. And his recent statements on Covid-19 help us understand why so many Americans are still dying or getting severely ill from the disease.The background here is Florida’s unfolding public health catastrophe.We now have highly effective vaccines freely available to every American who is at least 12 years old. There has been a lot of hype about “breakthrough” infections associated with the Delta variant, but they remain rare, and serious illness among the vaccinated is rarer still. There is no good reason we should still be suffering severely from this pandemic.But Florida is in the grip of a Covid surge worse than it experienced before the vaccines. More than 10,000 Floridians are hospitalized, around 10 times the number in New York, which has about as many residents; an average of 58 Florida residents are dying each day, compared with six in New York. And the Florida hospital system is under extreme stress.There’s no mystery about why this has happened. At every stage of the pandemic DeSantis has effectively acted as an ally of the coronavirus, for example by issuing orders blocking businesses from requiring that their patrons show proof of vaccination and schools from requiring masks. More generally, he has helped create a state of mind in which vaccine skepticism flourishes and refusal to take precautions is normalized.So, given these grim developments, one might have expected or at least hoped that DeSantis would reconsider his position. In fact, he has been making excuses – it’s all about the air-conditioning! He has been claiming that any new restrictions would have unacceptable costs for the economy – although Florida’s recent performance looks terrible if you place any value on human life.Above all, he has been playing the liberal-conspiracy-theory card, with fund-raising letters declaring that the “radical left” is “coming for your freedom.”
More Bay Area restaurants close temporarily because of breakthrough coronavirus cases on staff – With the highly contagious delta variant on the rise in the Bay Area, there’s one early pandemic trend that’s coming back: temporary restaurant closures because of staffers being exposed to the coronavirus. After starting with a trickle, these closures have happened more in the last week – specifically among fully vaccinated employees. Most closures happened after a staffer suspected being exposed to someone with the virus tested positive thereafter, subsequently prompting the entire restaurant staff to get tested. San Francisco restaurants Nari and Aziza both recently announced days-long closures after vaccinated staffers tested positive for the coronavirus. Oakland’s Ramen Shop is also closed after a vaccinated employee tested positive, according to an Instagram post. And North Beach institution Tosca Cafe has closed twice in the past three weeks, with the most recent closure happening last week after a vaccinated employee tested positive, according to an email sent to diners with reservations. Japantown’s Nari announced a weeklong closure Thursday on Instagram after three fully vaccinated employees tested positive, according to owner and chef Pim Techamuanvivit. When a server first tested positive for the coronavirus last week, the entire staff got tested and received negative results. But Techamuanvivit said she sent back a few employees who had gotten rapid antigen tests for a PCR test, which is considered more accurate because it detects the virus’ actual genetic material. Afterward, two more employees tested positive. Two of the three are showing mild symptoms and the third is asymptomatic, she said. It’s unlikely for fully vaccinated people who contract the virus to fall seriously ill or need hospitalization, public health officials have said. At Aziza, managing partner Scott Chilcutt confirmed the restaurant has been closed since last Saturday after three fully vaccinated staffers tested positive for the coronavirus. Aziza won’t reopen until next weekend, he said. Tosca co-owner Anna Weinberg said three fully vaccinated employees have tested positive in recent weeks, with mild symptoms. Restaurants’ closing and reopening cycle, she said, feels like an “accordion.” Weinberg said she isn’t rushing to reopen her other restaurants, including Petit Marlowe and Leo’s Oyster Bar, because of the uncertainty about the delta variant.
White House indicates NJ will get $12B if Congress approves infrastructure bill | Video – According to the White House, New Jersey would get $12 billion over the next five years if Congress approves a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. That includes $7.9 billion for highway improvements and bridge repair and replacement. New Jersey would also receive $4.1 billion for public transit, and money to build out a network of charging stations for electric vehicles. The bill also includes funding to help expand broadband internet coverage, providing access to more than 115,000 residents. Another 1.6 million low-income residents would get help paying for their internet service. Separately, there is additional money for Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor and potential funding sources for the Gateway Tunnel project.
Michigan activists: Utility customers need bailout – Michigan activists are calling for a federal bailout of utility customers as a starting point for helping people who have been unable to pay bills during the pandemic and now face mounting debt and service cut-offs. The Michigan Environmental Justice Coalition, which represents 50 organizations statewide, is rallying support for the Maintaining Access to Essential Services Act of 2021. The legislation would offer forgivable, low-interest loans to utilities that eliminate customer debt and agree to suspend service disconnections. The need is particularly dire in Michigan, supporters say. State regulators reported in May that over 1 million utility customers held about $325 million in past-due debt. “It’s nothing short of a scandal that in the richest country in the world, in the middle of a deadly pandemic, American families are having to worry about whether they’ll lose the utility access they need to survive,” said U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, who plans to introduce a House version of the bill Thursday, in a statement to the Energy News Network. In Michigan, those struggling families can be found everywhere from the remote, rural Upper Peninsula to the metro area of Detroit – the lowest-income large city in the country. A recent poll by the Michigan Environmental Justice Coalition and We Want Green Too found that almost a third of the 650 residents surveyed in those regions said they were worried about being able to pay their utility bills. Many of those who had experienced electricity shutoffs before reported having to temporarily leave their homes, which can disrupt access to childcare and the ability to work. And reconnection fees added to unsustainable financial challenges.
‘Here We Are Again:’ Weary Teachers Brace for Another COVID School Year — As teachers head back into their classrooms for yet another pandemic school year, many feel a foreboding sense of deja vu. Most teachers are now vaccinated against COVID-19, a major distinction from the last school year. But children younger than 12 are still ineligible for the vaccine, and among the students who are eligible, uptake has been slow. (Only 30 percent of children ages 12 to 15 have been fully vaccinated, along with 40 percent of the 16 to 17 age group.) Mask wearing has become politicized and hotly controversial, with at least eight states forbidding schools from requiring face coverings, according to the tracking firm Burbio. And the Delta variant, which in rare cases can cause infections among the vaccinated, is spreading rapidly.”I thought we’d be past this, but God, here we are again,” said Kathryn Vaughn, an elementary art teacher in rural west Tennessee. “It feels heavier this time.”Most school districts are planning for students to come back to classrooms five days a week, and many have eliminated remote learning options. About one-third of school and district leaders said no one will be required to wear masks, and another third said they have not yet made a decision about requirements, according to a recent nationally representative survey from the EdWeek Research Center.Teachers say they’re eager to return to normalcy and think that in-person instruction is the best option for most students, but they worry about all the unknowns with new coronavirus variants. And after a disruptive school year in which teacher stress levels skyrocketed and morale plummeted, the thought of going back to remote or hybrid learning weighs heavily.Some experts have predicted that schools will struggle to remain open amid the recent surge in coronavirus cases. Indeed, just days into the school year, some schools have already had to shut down because of outbreaks. Others have delayed the start of school. Many teachers say they’re bracing for another year of disruption.Yet teachers’ unions – which received blowback last year for taking a conservative approach to schools reopening – are championing students returning to school buildings five days a week. The American Federation of Teachers, for instance, is spending $5 million to fund 60 “back-to-school” campaigns in 30 states. In many places, local union members are going door to door to encourage parents to send their children back into school buildings.”We know that [kids] need to be in school, and we know everybody needs to be healthy and safe,” said AFT President Randi Weingarten in an interview.
What the delta variant means for this school year – We’re in the final days before students return to schools around the country. Yet, the rhetoric from many government leaders around school reopening has been like so many others related to COVID-19: Clunky, often more emotional than scientific and presented as certain. But little is certain.We are facing exponential increases in COVID-19 cases due to the highly contagious delta variant. In fact, in counties where the majority of adults had chosen not to get vaccinated, we are seeing infection rates that have eclipsed previous records and hospitals in these areas are nearing capacity. In these areas the rapid transmission of the delta variant may lead to subsequent and more dangerous variants that can put the health and economic recovery of the rest of the country, the world even, at risk.A lot has changed since the pronouncements that schools will return to pre-pandemic form were first made in the spring. First, the delta variant is now ubiquitous. It is extremely transmissible-at least 50 percent morethan the alpha variant that fueled our winter peak. Second, children are getting infected more frequently than at any other point. What hasn’t changed is that our “leaders” haven’t stopped politicizing COVID-19 – but now our children are at increased risk.Based on the data from last school year, most K-12 schools that operated in some capacity pre-delta had at least one class sent home to quarantine following the news that one of their students tested positive. In the spring, some schools returned to hybrid instruction after nearly a year online. Those schools and school systems that could afford it, implemented testing protocols, symptom and exposure screening, along with enforcement of masks and physical distancing guidelines.These measures should have been viewed as a warm-up drill for what would be needed in most school districts in the coming school year – given a more contagious strain of COVID-19 and the increased number of children being infected. It was inevitable that we would see a spike in COVID-19 cases given the experiences of the UK and India.Rather than taking steps to safeguard our children, divisive politicians have sent out the message that kids need to be unmasked to be happy or to learn. On the contrary, the data have been pretty clear that masking especially in the early elementary school years is not a problem for most kids. They comply. It’s the adults who are turning it into a political statement.With a “post-pandemic” mindset prevailing in many places, more children have been engaged in group activities since the introduction of delta to our country. As a result, more children are testing positive. It’s a numbers game. More children will be infected with COVID-19, particularly in those counties where vaccination rates are low and where masks continue to be used as more of a political statement than a public health measure to save lives. Sadly, we are moving to a place where it will be inevitable that every school district will have to share the news that one of its own students has been hospitalized due to COVID-19 or, tragically, succumbed to the disease. There is no reason for this. Every school should require masking of its students and vaccination of all of its staff with rare medical exemptions. Schools should be able to facilitate physical distancing. These simple and effective measures can go a long way in reducing the chance of infection.
The Delta variant adds new uncertainty to the coming school year.–Last week, in what was intended to be an internal document, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the highly contagious Delta variant had redrawn the battle lines of the coronavirus pandemic.The news came just as the first U.S. school districts were preparing to reopen; children in Atlanta and some of its suburbs head back to the classroom this week.Over the past year, there has been contentious debate over how much schools contribute to the spread of the virus and whether, and when, they should close. For some parents, teachers and officials, keeping schools open when a new, poorly understood virus was circulating seemed like an unacceptable risk.For others, however, it was school closures that posed the bigger danger – of learning loss, widening educational disparities and worsening mental health, not to mention the hardships for parents.As the new school year begins, however, the C.D.C., the American Academy of Pediatrics and many other experts agree that reopening schools should be a priority.Just a few months ago, with vaccinations for those 12 and older proceeding at a steady clip and new cases declining, the stage seemed set for at least a partial return to normal.Delta has thrown that into question. Much remains unknown aboutthe variant, including whether it affects children more seriously than earlier forms of the virus.And with vaccination rates highly uneven, and most decision-making left up to local officials, the variant adds new uncertainty to the coming school year – and makes it even more critical for schools to take safety precautions as they reopen, scientists said.”Delta, because it’s so contagious, has raised the ante,” said Dr. William Schaffner, medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases and a vaccine expert at Vanderbilt University. “It makes all these details all the more important.”
Biden administration promotes fully opening schools amid surge of Delta variant -The United States is in the midst of a massive surge of COVID-19 infections due to the spread of the highly infectious and virulent Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2. In the past month alone, the seven-day moving average of daily new cases has skyrocketed by over 500 percent to exceed 91,000 as of Monday. Amid this deepening surge of the pandemic, the Biden administration released a document Monday making clear that the drive to fully reopen schools over the coming weeks will continue apace. This is despite the fact that as of July 29, only 28 percent of 12- to 15-year-olds in the US were fully vaccinated, while children under 12 years old will likely not be eligible for any vaccine throughout the fall semester. In pushing to fully reopen schools, the White House is giving the green light to the criminal banning of mask mandates in schools, which have now been signed into law by Republican governors in Florida, Texas, Iowa, South Carolina, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Utah and Arizona. These states, each of which is experiencing a significant surge in daily new cases, provide public education to a combined roughly 12.7 million children who will be packed into poorly-ventilated buildings for hours each day. The most extreme measure has been taken in Florida, where Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, an acolyte of former President Donald Trump, signed an executive order Friday which allows the cutoff of funding to any school district that issues a mask mandate. The order was signed into law on the same day that Florida set a single-day record of new cases, logging an astronomical 21,683 confirmed infections. The executive order prompted Broward County Public Schools to rescind its mask mandate on Monday, leaving roughly 260,000 students at heightened risk of contracting COVID-19. Only eight states in the US are requiring masks in schools, serving another 12.7 million children, while the remaining 34 states, which serve roughly 25 million children, are leaving this decision up to local school districts. From the standpoint of public health, this haphazard and uncoordinated policy is absolutely criminal. The Department of Education (ED) document released Monday, titled, “Return to School Roadmap,” notes that under Biden, “America’s public schools have been steadily reopening for in-person learning, and students are returning to classrooms. We must continue that progress and provide every student, from every community and background, the opportunity to return to in-person learning full-time this fall. We must keep opening school doors and welcoming students back into classrooms.”
Schools must reopen, because ‘sitting behind a screen simply isn’t the same,’ Cardona says. -Education Secretary Miguel Cardona took the Biden administration’s urgent message about the need for vaccinations and in-person schooling on the road Wednesday, making a full-throated pitch for every student to return to a physical classroom this year.During a visit to a Baltimore school, Mr. Cardona signaled that the administration doesn’t intend to see the nation’s 50 million public school students endure another year of haphazard or nonexistent remote learning, which led to significant setbacks in academic achievement and mental health for children last year, especially among the most vulnerable populations.”Over the last year, what was made clear is that sitting behind a screen simply isn’t the same for a child as learning in a classroom,” Dr. Cardona said in remarks broadcast from Graceland Park/O’Donnell Heights Elementary/Middle School, where he toured classrooms and visited students in a summer enrichment program. “And we know that many students may have been disconnected from their school communities for weeks, months, and for some, over a year.”Dr. Cardona echoed messages in the past week from President Biden and Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, indicating that closing schools is not part of the administration’s equation for fighting the surge in coronavirus cases being driven by the Delta variant.When the C.D.C. revised its guidance last week and called for all teachers, other staff members, students and visitors to wear masks in schools, Dr. Walensky cited the need for students to get back to school in the fall. Mr. Biden said bluntly in a speech: “We can and we must open schools this fall, full time. It’s better for our children’s mental and emotional well-being, and we can’t afford another year out of the classroom.”In his remarks on Wednesday, Dr. Cardona called the rise in Delta-variant cases “concerning” and said vaccines were “key to winning the fight against the pandemic and to fully reopening schools.””The difference this year,” he said, “is that we can control the virus.”Fully vaccinated people are protected against the worst outcomes of Covid-19 caused by the Delta variant. Students 12 and older are now eligible to be vaccinated, but no vaccine has yet been authorized for children under 12.
WNY schools reveal COVID-19 policies for 2021-22 school year – – The New York State Department of Health confirmed Thursday that it will not issue guidance on re-opening schools.That responsibility will be left up to each school district.The New York State Department of Health said Thursday that school districts should develop plans to open in-person in the fall as safely as possible with the recommendation of following Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and local health department guidance.”I’ve been advocating for a long time that local municipalities and local school districts should have the autonomy to make these decisions 18 months into this pandemic,” Superintendent Mark Laurrie said.Niagara Falls City School District Superintendent Mark Laurrie is ready to propose to the school board that for this year, students wear masks on buses and in hallways, and they are strongly encouraged to wear them in the classroom. Ultimately, that choice will be left up to families.”With that guidance, we’ll monitor the science, we’ll stay in contact with the Niagara County Health Department, we’ll watch any trends in the school district, and we’ll adjust if we have to,” Laurrie said.He says that could mean stronger mask rules. In both Niagara Falls and Hamburg, students will be going back to school five days a week for in-person learning.”I think generally what you can expect is an opening of school that looks substantially like it did in 2019,” Superintendent Michael Cornell said.Michael Cornell is the Hamburg Central School District Superintendent and the President of The Erie-Niagara School Superintendents Association. Cornell asked the state for guidance for the 2021-22 school year in May, requesting it by June, and it never came.”We’re going to have three feet of physical distance with discretion beyond that. We’re going to have full school buses, and we’re going to do everything we can to make sure that we do all of those things in the safest possible way because we want our schools to be safe for learning and work,” Cornell said.Cornell says by collaborating with the county health department, most districts will wait to see what’s happening with the infection rate closer to the start of the school year before setting certain policies.
Michigan urges schools to follow CDC guidelines on masks for students and staff – Michigan health officials are urging schools in the state to follow federal guidelines on safety measures for the upcoming year, including recommendations that all students and staff wear masks inside school buildings and on buses. The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services on Wednesday afternoon updated its guidance to schools for 2021-22 school year. Department officials said the update is designed to prevent COVID cases in schools, reduce disruptions to in-person learning, and protect those who are not fully vaccinated. Schools do not have to follow the state recommendations. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer told media last week she doesn’t intend to require a mask mandate in the state. “We are committed to ensuring Michigan students and educators are safe in the classroom, including those who may not yet be vaccinated,” said Dr. Joneigh Khaldun, state chief medical executive. “MDHHS is issuing this guidance to help protect Michiganders of all ages. We continue to urge all eligible residents to get the safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine as soon as possible as it is our best defense against the virus and the way we are going to end this pandemic.” The updated guidance comes as school districts across the state prepare for a school year in which more students are likely to be learning in person rather than online. “Our students and staff need to be in schools as much as possible this year,” said State Superintendent Michael Rice. “Following the informed guidance from national and state health experts will help keep our students and staff healthy and help maximize student learning.” The U.S. Centers for Disease Control last week issued new guidelines that call for masks to be worn by students, staff and visitors inside schools and on public transportation, which includes school buses.
Virginia community colleges to require masks indoors – Community colleges in Virginia will require staff and students to wear masks indoors in light of new masking guidance issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) last week and the rapid spread of the delta variant.In the CDC’s updated guidance on masking last week, it recommended that fully vaccinated people wear masks indoors in areas with “substantial” or “high” levels of transmission of COVID-19. In a letter to the state’s 23 college presidents on Wednesday, the chancellor of the Virginia Community College System, Glenn DuBois, said that all of its colleges serve in areas that have either seen substantial or high levels of COVID-19 transmission within the last few days, the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported.”The rise of the virus’s easily transmitted Delta variant is requiring us, once again, to reconsider what is necessary to continue to pursue our academic mission as safely as possible,” DuBois said in his letter, according to the news outlet.According to the news outlet, colleges have been given the ability to choose how the mask mandates will apply in indoor settings and when to start enforcing the rules. Vaccinations will not be required for staff or students to return to campuses.About 55 percent of Virginia’s population is fully vaccinated, according to data from John Hopkins University. But cases have begun trending upward in the state since around mid-July. While the state had reported new cases as low as in the double digits in early July, the state reported 1,761 new cases on Wednesday, per CDC data.Cities, businesses and schools have begun having their own discussions about whether masks mandates need to be reinstated given the rapid spread of the delta variant in unvaccinated communities. Several school districts in Florida have already said that they will require students to wear masks in classrooms, defying Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) who has said that the choice to wear masks in schools should be made by parents and not schools, the Associated Press noted.
Appeals court sides with Indiana University on vaccine mandate – A federal appeals court is siding with Indiana University over its requirement that all students next semester be vaccinated against COVID-19 or wear masks if they cannot get the shots for religious or medical reasons. A group of eight students at Indiana University had sued the school over the policy, but in court documents filed on Monday, the panel of three of Republican-nominated judges pointed to a 1905 case that held that the state was permitted to require all members of the public to be vaccinated against smallpox. “There can’t be a constitutional problem with vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2,” they wrote. The judges ruled that the case for Indiana University’s rule was in fact easier to argue than the 1905 smallpox one for two reasons. First, the 1905 case did not include exceptions for adults, which Indiana University has done. The court added that the testing and masking requirements that the school has in place for those who are exempted from vaccinations are “not constitutionally problematic.” And second, the judges said, the college’s rule is only applicable to those wishing to attend the school, and does not apply to the entire state as the 1905 case did. “Many universities require vaccination against SARS-CoV-2, but many others do not. Plaintiffs have ample educational opportunities,” the judges wrote. “Other conditions of enrollment are normal and proper. The First Amendment means that a state cannot tell anyone what to read or write, but a state university may demand that students read things they prefer not to read and write things they prefer not to write.” As Reuters reports, the lawyer representing the eight students, James Bopp of the Bopp Law Firm, said he planned on filing an appeal of this ruling with the Supreme Court. Reuters notes that more than 500 colleges and universities have enacted COVID-19 vaccine requirements for their students.
Colleges split on tracking coronavirus vaccination as school year nears – The University of Virginia requires its students in Charlottesville to get vaccinated against the coronavirus, and they are complying in overwhelming numbers: More than 90 percent are now inoculated ahead of the fall term.The University of Idaho strongly recommends vaccination, but it is unknown how many students have followed that advice. “We do not track who is vaccinated,” Jodi Walker, U-Idaho’s spokeswoman, wrote in an email.These two flagship public universities illustrate a wide gulf in approaches to the pandemic as higher education approaches another gut-check moment. Both want a normal school year despite the summer surge of the dangerous delta variant that is leading campuses across the country to ask students once again to wear masks indoors. One is avoiding vaccination metrics and mandates. The other is keeping close tabs on vaccinations.On July 29, U-Va. marked 22,178 students as fully vaccinated out of 24,617 eligible to register for courses on the main campus. That yielded a student vaccination rate of 90 percent. By Monday, the rate had reached 91 percent. A few hundred students had obtained waivers for medical or religious reasons. Others had trouble accessing vaccines or had not yet submitted documents. Among faculty and staff, 91 percent were fully or partially vaccinated.The university views this data as essential to navigate the pandemic. To U-Va., monitoring vaccinations for the coming school year is just as important as all the viral testing in the past year that helped protect the campus from deadly outbreaks.”My view is, you need to know what you’re dealing with,” said U-Va. President James E. Ryan. Without knowing vaccination levels, he said, “you’re flying a little blind.” To have almost everyone on campus immunized, Ryan said, “is just critical to being able to have full classrooms … and full dorms and full dining halls.”A Washington Post survey of a number of prominent universities found several that publicize vaccination rates, even among schools that are not mandating shots. The University of Kentucky, which doesn’t mandate vaccines, reported that 69 percent of its students, faculty and staff had been immunized as of July 30 or were in the process of doing so.At Ohio State University, another school that encourages but doesn’t mandate vaccines, the vaccination rate for students, faculty and staff stood at more than 73 percent as of Monday. President Kristina M. Johnson, using the lure of letter grades, is exhorting the campus to go further. “We really want them to get an A, so we want to be above 90 percent if we can,” Johnson told the Columbus, Ohio, television station WSYX.
Stunning new report ranks US dead last in health care among richest countries – despite spending the most – The U.S. health care system ranked last among 11 wealthy countries despite spending the highest percentage of its gross domestic product on health care, according to an analysis by the Commonwealth Fund. Researchers behind the report surveyed tens of thousands of patients and doctors in each country and used data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the World Health Organization (WHO). The report considered 71 performance measures that fell under five categories: access to care, the care process, administrative efficiency, equity and health-care outcomes. Countries analyzed in the report include Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the U.S.Norway, the Netherlands and Australia were the top-performing countries overall, with the U.S. coming in dead last. The U.S. ranked last on access to care, administrative efficiency, equity and health care outcomes despite spending 17 percent of GDP on health care, but came in second on the measures of care process metric. The nation performed well in rates of mammography screening and influenza vaccination for older Americans, as well as the percentage of adults who talked with their physician about nutrition, smoking and alcohol use. Half of lower-income U.S. adults in the report said costs prevented them from receiving care while just over a quarter of high-income Americans said the same. In comparison, just 12 percent of lower-income residents in the U.K. and 7 percent with higher incomes said costs stopped them from getting care. The U.S. also had the highest infant mortality rate and lowest life expectancy at age 60 compared with other countries. Researchers said several key factors set the high-performing nations apart from the U.S.: universal coverage, the removal of cost barriers, investment in care systems to reduce inequities and investing in social services for children and working-age adults. “The U.S. has two health care systems. For Americans with the means and insurance to have a regular doctor and reported experiences with their day-to-day care are relatively good, but for those who lack access, the consequences are stark,” Schneider said.
China’s July factory activity growth slips to 15-month low – Caixin PMI (Reuters) – China’s factory activity growth slipped sharply in July as demand contracted for the first time in over a year in part on high product prices, a business survey showed on Monday, underscoring challenges facing the world’s manufacturing hub. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 50.3 last month from 51.3 the month before, the lowest level since April 2020. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the index to ease to 51.1. The 50-mark separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. The Chinese economy has largely recovered from disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic, but it has faced new challenges in recent months such as higher raw material costs, which dragged on profit growth at industrial firms in June. Policymakers have stepped up efforts to curb surging commodity prices that have squeezed manufacturers’ margins.
China’s Industrial Slowdown Could Kill The Commodity Rally – One of the biggest drivers of the surge in metals prices this year, the world’s top commodity consumer China, is showing signs of a slowdown in demand, which could drag down copper and iron ore prices for the rest of the year after a blistering rally in the first half.Chinese factory activity growth slowed down to the smallest in 15 months, imports of copper and iron ore are also slowing down amid surging prices and curbs in China’s steel manufacturing, while authorities are releasing metals stocks from reserves to cool rallying prices which raise manufacturing costs.All these factors from the past few weeks are bearish for the Chinese demand – and as a result, imports – of metals such as iron ore, copper, zinc, and aluminum, Reuters columnist Clyde Russellnotes.Although analysts say that slower Chinese demand doesn’t necessarily mean lower commodity prices, because of tight global markets, China may not be a key driver of metals demand through the end of 2021. That’s because of slowing factory growth, authority-mandated caps on steel manufacturing, and the release of tons of metals from China’s reserves.The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showedthis week that Chinese factory growth was at its slowest in July in 15 months, also because of high raw material prices, especially for industrial metals.At the same time, China’s imports of iron ore, the key material for steel manufacturing, fell in June to the lowest in 13 months, slipping by 0.4 percent from May and by 12.1 percent from June 2020.China moved to cap steel production and steel exports this year as part of its pledge to reduce emissions. Chinese authorities have implemented a policy to keep steel output flat at 2020 levels.Following a 12-percent jump in steel production in the first half of the year, this policy means that Chinese steel manufacturing will likely drop in the second half of the year, dragging down demand for iron ore, too, analysts tell Global Times.”Cutting production is the main theme for the entire steel industry for the rest of the year not only because of environmental goals but also the unsustainability for firms to produce so much steel when the cost is so high,” a steel industry insider told the Global Times this week.”China steel mills’ restrictions could result in around 75 million tonnes less iron ore demand in the second half,” analysts at UBS said in a July note carried by Reuters. The curbs on steel production in China have already resulted in lower iron ore prices.China’s copper imports have also slowed down in recent months, customs data shows. But copper scrap imports have been surging, doubling in the first half of 2021, according to metals intelligence firm Roskill. As manufacturers replace the more expensive refined copper with scrap, “This would unquestionable result in a decline in Chinese refined consumption in 2021- a hugely negative factor for world copper prices to surmount, despite the evident recovery in demand in the Rest of World,” Roskill saidlast week.”Watch out copper. A great wall of scrap is still heading in China’s direction,” the intelligence firm said.Copper prices could also drop because of Chinese sales of tons of metals, including copper, from state reserves.
Beijing cancelling large exhibitions, events for rest of month as delta variant spreads -Beijing is canceling large exhibitions and events for the rest of August due to a rise in delta variant coronavirus cases.One such canceled event is the annual World 5G Conference that was set to be held this weekend, The Wall Street Journal reported.The World Robot Conference, which had been set for later this month, is waiting for orders from the government to get canceled. The event attracted 300,000 attendees in 2019.China’s National Health Commission announced Wednesday there were 62 new nationwide coronavirus cases, with three cases confirmed to be the delta variant.”Prevention and control of the epidemic is currently the most important priority for the entire city of Beijing, top to bottom,” the Chinese capital’s COVID-19 response team said, according to state-run Xinhua News Agency.The decision comes a day after a mass coronavirus testing order wasannounced in Wuhan due to an outbreak of the delta variant.The country canceled flights and baseball games after the outbreak was found to spread to 17 provinces and more than 35 cities. China only has 15 percent of its population fully vaccinated, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.The delta variant is causing renewed coronavirus restrictions around the world as cases increase in many countries. Major events have not been canceled in the U.S. but many venues are implementing vaccine or mask requirements, or both.
Thailand will extend strict coronavirus measures to more regions of the country. Thailand will enforce stricter coronavirus measures in more areas of the country starting Tuesday, as the Delta variant is sharply driving up the numbers of cases and deaths.Rules were already in place in areas deemed virus hot spots – including Bangkok, the capital – and were set to expire on Monday. But officials said on Sunday after an emergency meeting that they would instead add 16 provinces to their designated “dark-red zones,” including provinces near Bangkok and in the country’s central and southern regions, to try to stem transmission of the virus.Residents in those zones, where rules are the tightest, must abide by a 9 p.m. to 4 a.m. curfew and a five-person limit on gatherings. They also cannot use public transportation.Restaurants can be open for takeaway and delivery services, but salons and sports venues must be closed. The new measures are meant to “help to control and contain Covid,” Natapanu Nopakun, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, said, adding that officials hoped the effort would “bear fruit” by the government’s next review in two weeks. But he said that the measures would most likely be in place until the end of August.
Nigerian Doctors Set to Strike Amid Rising Covid-19 Cases Amid the imminent third wave of the novel coronavirus pandemic and the recent outbreak of cholera in more than 13 states, Nigerian doctors have announced the commencement of a nationwide industrial action from August 2, 2021. The doctors, members of the National Association of Resident Doctors (NARD), blamed the government for the strike, calling on its members to resume an “indefinite and total strike” to press home its demand for better welfare packages – part of an agreement signed with the government in April, 2021. The doctors had demanded, amongst other things, the immediate payment of Covid-19 inducement allowance to some of their members in federal and state tertiary institutions. The doctors had downed tools several times over these same issues.The doctor’s strike is coming at a time the country is preparing for a possible third wave of the novel coronavirus pandemic. Nigeria has continued to witness a consistent increase in the number of cases and deaths, including the presence of the Delta variant which is already present in many parts of the country. Reports of cholera outbreaks in various states including Bauchi, Enugu, Ebonyi, Jigawa, Plateau, Benue, Bayelsa, Delta, among others, have already added to the pressure on the nation’s health facilities.The country has over one million people vaccinated. Nigeria has recorded at least 174,315 confirmed Covid-19 cases, 165,015 recoveries, and over 2,149 fatalities. Meanwhile, an outbreak of Cholera has killed 325 people in 15 states between January and June, 2021, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control has said.
Shipping costs are still surging at breakneck speed -FT Alphaville -There’s a blame game going on in global shipping. Everything from games console sales to container locations to competition has been listed as a factor in the rising cost of sailing freight across the world’s oceans.But a year into the price surge, it’s still proving pretty difficult to assess how much of the disruption is down to demand-related factors, and how much reflects more fundamental supply-side issues.Despite the easing of lockdowns in the US and Europe, high demand for consumer goods remains a factor. Gene Seroka, head of the Port of LA, toldOdd Lots recently that they were still processing more cargoes than ever before.Shipping has always been a highly cyclical business too. Freight costs between East Asia and the West always tend to rise during the run-up to Christmas, for instance.However, the evidence that high prices reflect structural issues (and are therefore likely to linger for longer) is mounting. This hit our inboxes earlier today from Xeneta, a firm that provides data on shipping freight rates charged to some of the world’s big exporters:According to the latest Long-Term XSI Public Indices, the global index [which measures shipping freight costs on some of the world’s main trade routes] recorded a staggering jump of 28.1% [between June and July], blowing the previous record (a 11.3% rise in May 2019) out the water. The benchmark now stands 78.2% higher than in July 2020, up 76.4% in 2021 alone.Yep, you read that right. Prices jumped by almost third over the course of a single month and the index is up by more than three quarters over the course of the year so far. For European imports, the picture’s bleaker still with prices jumping by almost 50 per cent on the month, and 120 per cent year-on-year.We’re talking meme stock territory here. Without the likelihood of a subsequent price crash. Short-term prices over the past year have risen by a mind-blowing 600 per cent. While comparing one route with changes in long-term shipping costs from all destinations to Europe isn’t perfect, it highlights that day-to-day rates are far more volatile.It’s a little like comparing headline inflation, which includes changes in the cost of more volatile items such as food and energy, with the core measure, which excludes those goods. Because the core measure is less likely to whipsaw, it is seen as more reflective of entrenched price trends.So the fact that longer-term prices are now rising at levels that Xeneta’s CEO Patrik Berglund describes as “truly breathtaking” suggests that increasingly what we’re seeing happening to the cost of shipping freight – the means by which 80 per cent of imports reach consumers – reflects supply-side constraints that are often more difficult to resolve than high demand.So what does this mean for price developments?We are sceptical that efforts by the likes of Joe Biden to challenge anti-competitive practices will have much of an impact on costs. The White House is also not targeting freight rates, but other charges. Clearly a lack of capacity can be addressed by building more ships. But, as Xeneta points out, while 300 new vessels are on order, they won’t be online for a while yet.
Delta cloud over world economic growth –The general outlook of capitalist governments and their economic agencies has been that after the 2020 recession, induced by the COVID-19 pandemic – the deepest since the Great Depression of the 1930s – the global economy would return to a path of growth. Despite the recent upturn in the major economic centres, this rosy scenario is now very much in question, because of the spread of the Delta variant of the virus. This is the result of two factors. The first is the refusal of capitalist governments to take the necessary health measures to deal with the pandemic, because of their impact on profits. The second is “vaccine nationalism,” which has meant that many of the hardest-hit areas of the world have been cut off from supplies, allowing the coronavirus to develop more dangerous variants. Last week, in its update on the state of the world economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed to a significant division these policies have created within the global economy. Over the past two decades and more, the so-called emerging and developing economies have been a key driver of global growth, outstripping the contribution made by the major economies. This has now turned around. The IMF maintained its April forecast of 6 percent for global growth this year, but changed its prediction of where it would come from. It cut the forecast for emerging and developing countries by 0.4 percentage points for this year, to 6.3 percent. The Financial Times called this the “gloomier outlook” that was “worst in south-east Asia and south Asia, particularly India.” At the same time, the IMF revised upward its forecast for growth in the advanced economies by 0.5 percentage points, to 5.6 percent. “Vaccine access has emerged as the principal fault line, along which the global recovery splits into two blocs,” the IMF said. Some countries could “look forward to further normalisation of activity this year,” but many others “still face resurgent infections and rising death tolls.” The IMF said recovery was not assured, even in countries where infections were currently very low, so long as the virus circulates elsewhere. That warning was confirmed within a week of being issued. The Delta variant continued to spread, including in countries with a relatively higher level of vaccinations. The pandemic has been accompanied by higher levels of debt, and emerging market economies could face major problems if monetary conditions in the US begin to tighten. The IMF warned of a “double hit” to these economies, as a result of “worsening pandemic dynamics and tighter external financial conditions.” This would drag down global growth below its forecast. In a blog comment on the latest update, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath wrote that risks were tilted to the downside. “The emergence of highly infectious virus variants could derail the recovery and wipe out $4.5 trillion cumulatively from global GDP by 2025,” she said. “Financial conditions could also tighten abruptly amid stretched asset valuations, if there is a sudden reassessment of the monetary policy outlook, especially in the United States. It is also possible that stimulus spending in the United States could prove weaker than expected.” Figures released last week showed the US economy is now larger than it was before the pandemic struck. The economy grew at an annualised rate of 6.5 percent in the second quarter of 2021, slightly more than the annualised rate of 6.3 percent in the first. But this was well below the 8.4 percent that economists had forecast, and much lower than earlier predictions of a bounce-back of 10 percent and more.
COVID-19 and global capital flows [http://www.oecd.org%20-/]- – OECD — The COVID-19 outbreak, in addition to dramatic implications for the health of people around the world, has triggered major economic and financial consequences: GDP is now expected to contract by 6% globally in 20201; trade could fall by 12% to 32% this year2; FDI flows are expected to fall by around 40%3; equity markets initially suffered sharp sell-offs before recovering somewhat in recent weeks, and financial conditions have substantially tightened.4 These developments in turn are significantly impacting global capital flows and countries’ external positions.5 The COVID-19 crisis and steep oil price declines have led to sharp swings in foreign exchange markets. As the COVID-19 outbreak has escalated into an unprecedented global crisis, accompanied by plummeting oil prices, exchange rates of key emerging market economies (EMEs) dropped substantially, notably those of the Brazilian real (BRL), Mexican peso (MXN), Russian rouble (RUB), South African rand (ZAR), and later the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) and the Turkish lira (TRY) (Figure 1). The currency depreciation accelerated between end-February and mid/end-March 2020. The currencies of advanced economies (AEs) have generally strengthened over the period, particularly the USD, JPY, EUR, and CHF (Figure 2). After a notable drop in the first half of March, the Canadian and Australian dollar rebounded.6 Since April 2020, the hardest-hit currencies have started to recover. This is particularly the case of the IDR, and the RUB, while the ZAR and MXN have stabilised. This rebound, and the heterogeneity in reactions across different emerging market currencies, may reflect various developments, including initially the extension by the US Federal Reserve of swap lines, which was coordinated with other G7 central banks and the Swiss National Bank in March7, and the opening of a repo facility (see section below) as well as the agreement announced by OPEC+ countries at the beginning of April 2020. What appears exceptional about capital flow dynamics during the COVID-19 crisis are the scale and speed of the outflows. The Institute of International Finance (IIF) daily flows trackerestimates that around USD 103 billion were drawn from EMEs between mid-January and mid-May 2020, with equity inflows plummeting first, followed by debt flows. This sudden stop in capital flows has been faster and more incisive than observed during similar events in recent years, including during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the 2013 Taper Tantrum when the Fed announced a gradual exit to its quantitative easing programme, and the 2015 Chinese stock market sell-off (Figure 3).A more complete picture of portfolio flow dynamics is provided by preliminary balance-of-payments data for the first quarter of 2020, which show the substantial drop in non-resident portfolio flows to EMEs, both debt and equity, and most strikingly in Brazil (Figure 4, left axis). While inflows to AEs generally strengthened in February, Japan and the US also experienced large drops in portfolio debt inflows in March (Figure 4, right axis). Portfolio inflows to Italy declined by more than USD 60 billion in March, in contrast to France and Germany, both of which recorded important debt inflows (Figure 4, left axis). Resident investors in some cases exacerbated the drop in non-residents flows by investing more abroad (Turkey, Japan), while in other cases they cut foreign investment, repatriating funds back home (Canada, US).
Demonstrations against France’s vaccine pass surge for a third weekend, even as cases rise. –Protesters converged in Paris to oppose France’s new health pass policy, which bars people without proof of vaccination or a recent negative Covid-19 test from indoor venues. Demonstrations also took place in other cities in France.CreditCredit…Alain Jocard/Agence France-Presse – Getty Images Pascale Collino, 64, is far more afraid of the Covid-19 vaccines than of the disease itself. So when the French government decided to implement a new health pass policy barring those without proof of vaccination or a recent negative test from many indoor venues, she took to the streets in protest.”We have to be on the front lines of this fight,” Ms. Collino said on Saturday near the French health ministry in Paris, where a large crowd had converged, banging pots and cowbells.For the third week in a row, thousands took to the streets around France to protest the government’s health pass law, which waspassed by Parliament recently but still needs a final greenlight from a top constitutional council, expected next week, before it can be fully enforced.The protests come as the authorities try to stem a new wave of infections that is starting to put pressure on France’s hospitals, where 85 percent of Covid-19 patients are unvaccinated, according to a government report published this week.
Cyberattackers shut down vaccine bookings for Rome and its region. –The Lazio region of Italy, which includes Rome, has been unable to offer vaccination appointments online for three days because of a cyberattack on its website over the weekend, part of what the authorities said was probably Italy’s most serious ransomware case to date. Ransomware attacks, in which criminals break into a computer system, encrypt the data it contains and demand money to release it, have struck health care systems in many countries, paralyzing hospitals, clinics and testing centers from California to Ireland and New Zealand. The attack in Italy is one of the largest to affect a vaccination campaign, raising alarms about its potential impact.”It’s hitting one of the things that in 2021 are fundamental,” said Stefano Zanero, a professor of cybersecurity at the Polytechnic University of Milan.The attack against the regional information technology services began at midnight on Saturday. It came at a fraught time, as the Italian authorities are grappling with vaccine skepticism and the spread of the Delta variant, which is dominant in the country.Italy’s postal police, who have jurisdiction over cyberattacks, are still investigating the identity of the attackers, but the president of the Lazio region, Nicola Zingaretti, said on Monday that the police knew it had come from abroad. He called the attack “very powerful and very invasive.”A ransomware attack in May on the Colonial Pipeline, which transports fuel from Texas across the southeastern United States as far as New Jersey, caused a shutdown that lasted several days and prompted panic buying of gasoline in the United States. In Ireland, an attack paralyzed the health services’ digital systems for more than a week in June, delaying Covid-19 testing and medical appointments. Regional governments have extensive powers over vaccinations in Italy, and the Lazio region, home to nearly 6 million people, prided itself on an efficient campaign. About 70 percent of the region’s adult population is fully vaccinated, the highest figure in the country; for Italy as a whole, the figure as of Tuesday was 53 percent, according to a New York Times tracker.
Italy to require teachers to have proof of COVID-19 vaccination – The Italian government on Thursday enacted a requirement for teachers to have proof of vaccination against COVID-19 before entering a classroom.The so-called Green Pass is a digital or paper certificate that shows if a person has been vaccinated or has tested negative for COVID-19. It is already required of travelers using public transport.Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi expanded the requirement to include all teachers, university students and long-distance transport to begin on Sept. 1, Reuters reports.Teachers will not be permitted to work without the certificate and they will not be paid after five days of absence.”The choice of the government is to invest as much as possible in the Green Pass to avoid closures and to safeguard freedom,” Italian Health Minister Roberto Speranza told reporters about the decision.The Italian government also ruled that beginning Friday, the Green Pass will be required to eat indoors as well as to take part in other service and leisure activities.Italy’s crackdown comes the same day France’s Constitutional Council ruled that COVID-19 health pass requirements for its citizens to enter public venues was legal. In France, the health pass is available to those who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, have recently recovered from the virus or have recently tested negative.Protests have taken place across France over the past few weeks against the requirement, with demonstrators saying it impinges on their freedoms and is unconstitutional. More than 200,000 demonstrators took the streets in Paris this past weekend. Nearly 50 percent of France’s population is fully vaccinated and 64 percent have received at least one dose, according to Our World in Data.Shortly after French President Emmanuel Macron announced the health pass, more than 1 million people signed up to get vaccinated. Reuters notes that this does not appear to be the case in Italy, with vaccination rates actually slowing down in the weeks since Draghi announced the restrictions around the Green Pass.Around 65 percent of Italy’s population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, Reuters reports.
Britain will extend vaccination to 16- and 17-year-olds. -The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization advised Britain to expand vaccination for 16- and 17-year-olds with no underlying health conditions. Shots were already open to ages 12 to 17 with increased health risks, or living with an immunosuppressed person.CreditCredit…Vickie Flores/EPA, via ShutterstockBritain is expanding its vaccination campaign to include 16- and 17-year-olds with no underlying health conditions on the advice of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization, an independent body responsible for advising its health departments.At a news conference in London on Wednesday, Jonathan Van-Tam, Britain’s deputy chief medical officer, said the campaign would start in a “very short number of weeks” but he did not specify a date. He said officials would “proceed as fast as is practically possible.”Under previous advice from the joint committee, the vaccine was made available to children 12 to 17 with underlying health conditions and increased risk of severe infection, or those living with an immunosuppressed person.Across England, 244,223 people under 18 had received a first dose as of Aug. 4, according to National Health Service data.In July, the joint committee had advised against the routine vaccination of children without underlying conditions, citing evidence that suggested vaccination would offer “minimal health benefits” for young people who rarely experienced severe virus symptoms. The committee said it was also awaiting further safety data following extremely rare reports of inflammation of the heart muscle with the use of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines in younger adults.The new guidance balanced “potential benefits and harms” to young people, according to a joint committee member, Wei Shen Lim, including the frequency and severity of adverse reactions, and the impact of so-called long Covid which affected just a “small proportion” of young people and children.
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