Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666
News posted last week about economic effects related to the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some articles are summarized here. We cover the latest economic data, especially the prospects for an infrastructure bill, stimulus checks, government funding, the Fed, the latest employment data, housing market reports, mortgage delinquencies & forbearance, layoffs, lockdowns, and schools, as well as GDP. The bulk of the news is from the U.S., with a few more articles from overseas at the end. (Picture below is morning rush hour in downtown Chicago, 20 March 2020.) News items about epidemiology and other medical news for the virus are reported in a companion article.
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The news associated with the pandemic was reduced this week. There are a few articles from around the world at the end:
Fed Signals Eventual Shift From Easy-Money Pandemic Policies – WSJ –The Federal Reserve has begun to telegraph an eventual shift away from the easy-money policies implemented during the pandemic as evidence builds of a robust economic recovery and mounting inflation. Several Fed officials said this week that the central bank is closely watching economic developments and will be ready to adjust policy when necessary. Minutes from the central bank’s policy meeting in late April, released Wednesday, reported that some Fed officials want to begin discussing a plan for reducing the Fed’s massive bond-buying program at a future meeting. “If we got to the point where we were comfortable on the public health side that the pandemic was largely behind us, and was not going to resurge in some way that was surprising, then I think we could talk about adjusting monetary policy,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told reporters after a speech Wednesday. “I don’t think we’re quite to that point yet, but it does seem like we’re getting close.” Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, a voting member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee, made similar remarks in a Bloomberg television interview. “We’re going to have to be very nimble in terms of our monitoring of the economy and our policy responses,” Mr. Bostic said Wednesday. The latest public remarks came ahead of the Fed’s release of minutes from its April 27-28 meeting. The minutes showed general agreement among officials on the need to continue supporting the economy with near-zero interest rates and bond purchases. But they also dropped the Fed’s first hint that policy makers could soon begin discussing a slowdown in the pace of its Treasury and mortgage-bond purchases, which currently total at least $120 billion a month. “A number of participants suggested that if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the committee’s goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases,” the minutes said. They noted that many officials echoed Chairman Jerome Powell’s view that the Fed should give markets plenty of advance warning before it begins reducing the purchases. Long-term bond yields jumped and stocks extended losses after the minutes were released. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes rose as high as 1.692%, up from 1.62% on Wednesday morning.. “I think they’re recognizing that you can’t have a fixed view of the world when this cycle is continuing to throw surprises at you.” The April meeting took place before economic data showed a surge of inflation, a slower-than-expected pace of hiring and mounting supply constraints. Fed officials have said for months that they think higher inflation this year will be temporary, allowing them to maintain easy-money policies until the labor market more fully recovers from the pandemic. “However, a couple of participants commented on the risks of inflation pressures building up to unwelcome levels before they become sufficiently evident to induce a policy reaction,” minutes from the April meeting said.
The Fed hinted it could reconsider easy policies if economy continues rapid improvement — Federal Reserve officials at their April meeting said a strong pickup in economic activity would warrant discussions about tightening monetary policy, according to minutes from the session released Wednesday. “A number of participants suggested that if the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the Committee’s goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases,” the meeting summary said. Markets have been watching closely for clues about when the central bank might start tapering its bond purchases, which currently are at least $120 billion a month. The Fed balance sheet is just shy of $7.9 trillion, nearly double its level before the Covid-19 pandemic. Fed officials have been steadfast that they won’t change policy until their economic goals, particularly regarding employment and inflation, have been hit. The discussion revealed in the minutes is the first time that central bankers have indicated that a reduction in purchases could happen ahead, though there was no timetable. Stocks briefly added to losses following the release and government bond yields remained mostly higher on the session. Chairman Jerome Powell said after the meeting that the recovery remains “uneven and far from complete” and the economy was still not showing the “substantial further progress” standard the committee has set before it will change policy. However, since then the consumer price index showed inflation rising at a 4.2% year over year pace, GDP is expected to show growth approaching 10% in the second quarter, and indicators in manufacturing and spending are showing strong upward momentum. The one exception was a stunningly slow pace of hiring in April, with nonfarm payrolls rising just 266,000 against expectations for a 1 million gain. At the April session, the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold benchmark short-term borrowing rates near zero and keep the bond purchase level intact. Along with that decision, the Fed upgraded its view on the economy, saying growth has “strengthened” and inflation was rising. The April meeting was held before inflation and employment numbers for the month were released. Fed officials took a largely sanguine view of inflation at the meeting, anticipating that near-term price pressures would fade as the year goes on. Those at the April 27-28 session said they expected rising demand with an economic reopening to combine with supply chain issues to push prices above the Fed’s 2% inflation target. “After the transitory effects of these factors fade, participants generally expected measured inflation to ease,” the minutes said. The minutes stated that “various participants” anticipated that it will “likely be some time until the economy had made substantial further progress toward the Committee’s maximum-employment and price-stability goals relative to the conditions prevailing in December 2020 when the Committee first provided its guidance for asset purchases.”
FOMC Minutes: Concern about “supply chain bottlenecks and input shortages” –From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 27 – 28, 2021. A few excerpts: In their comments about inflation, participants anticipated that inflation as measured by the 12-month change of the PCE price index would move above 2 percent in the near term as very low readings from early in the pandemic fall out of the calculation. In addition, increases in oil prices were expected to pass through to consumer energy prices. Participants also noted that the expected surge in demand as the economy reopens further, along with some transitory supply chain bottlenecks, would contribute to PCE price inflation temporarily running somewhat above 2 percent. After the transitory effects of these factors fade, participants generally expected measured inflation to ease. Looking further ahead, participants expected inflation to be at levels consistent with achieving the Committee’s objectives over time. A number of participants remarked that supply chain bottlenecks and input shortages may not be resolved quickly and, if so, these factors could put upward pressure on prices beyond this year. They noted that in some industries, supply chain disruptions appeared to be more persistent than originally anticipated and reportedly had led to higher input costs. Despite the expected short-run fluctuations in measured inflation, many participants commented that various measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained well anchored at levels broadly consistent with achieving the Committee’s longer-run goals.
Markets Worry the Federal Reserve Is Making a Mistake – —Mohamed A. El-Erian — A once-unthinkable notion is becoming possible: The European Central Bank may start talking about ratcheting back easy-money policies before the Federal Reserve does. Even more curious is that this would not be the result of the usual policy drivers relating to inflation, growth, financial stability and fiscal policy. Rather, it would reflect a Fed-specific duality happening now: Not only does the U.S. central bank appear to be to lagging behind developments on the ground and the emerging consensus among some other central banks, but it’s also being held hostage to a monetary framework that, while designed to capture structural change, risks being ill-suited for the Covid-disrupted world. Such possible ECB considerations of a taper would follow actual steps taken this month by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. 1 And they would make the U.S. central bank even more of an outlier in the advanced world as Fed officials almost universally reiterate their long-standing message that it is not time yet to even start “thinking about thinking” about a change in the current “pedal-to-the-metal” policy approach. This emerging contrast cannot be explained away by traditional drivers of monetary policy. If anything, those factors would suggest that the Fed should be ahead of the other central banks in slowly and carefully tightening financial conditions. As an illustration, consider the following:
- *Growth in the U.S. is outpacing that in Europe, and is likely to continue to do so for 2021 as a whole;
- *Fiscal policy in the U.S. is significantly more expansionary than it is in Europe;
- *Inflationary pressures are more pronounced and broad-based in the U.S. than in Europe, and
- *There is a greater proliferation in the U.S. of excessive financial risk-taking in non-banks, which poses a danger to future financial stability.
None of these things explain the Fed’s position; in fact, they run counter to it. And yet U.S. central bankers remain fixated on their oft-repeated conviction that inflation is “transitory.” They are holding to this line despite data and corporate evidence that support a more open mindset, and even as other central banks take different approaches and an increasing number of economists and Wall Street analysts voice concern about the Fed’s stance. Fed policy makers may well end up being correct in their stubbornness to dismiss all this. However, judging from the market action, including today’s selloff in assets that historically do not move together, it’s clear worries are growing about the risk of a policy mistake. After all, one of the last things the economy and markets need is a late Fed that is forced to slam its brakes.
Divisions mount over US monetary policy – Minutes from the Fed’s April 27 – 28 policy making committee released yesterday indicate a possible divergence in the central bank’s governing body over the direction of monetary policy amid concerns that financial authorities are ignoring growing dangers that inflation could get out of control. According to the minutes of the meeting, members of the Federal Open Market Committee generally agreed that the US economy remained “far” from the Fed’s goals of full employment and price stability, with a level of inflation consistently around 2 percent, and this required the central bank maintaining the ultra-loose monetary policy initiated in March 2020. But they also showed that a number of members indicated during the discussion that the time may be rapidly approaching when a discussion should begin on rolling back the Fed’s asset purchases of $120 billion a month – more than $1.4 trillion a year. However, when Fed chair Jerome Powell reported on the Fed’s deliberations immediately after the meeting three weeks ago he made no reference to this significant discussion. According to the FOMC minutes: “A number of participants suggested that if the economy continued to make rapid progress towards the committee’s goals, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases.” The issue was very much a live one at the Fed meeting, with significant financial analysts and commentators warning it had to give some indication of when it might begin the tapering process lest it was forced to jam on the monetary brakes in face of an inflationary surge. Former US Treasury Secretary Summers had warned that combined with the stimulus measures of the Biden administration, the Fed’s policies could lead to the kind of inflation seen in the 1970s. These views were clearly evident at the Fed meeting, with the minutes recording that “a couple of participants commented on the risks of inflation pressures building up to unwelcome levels before they become sufficiently evident to induce a policy reaction.” Summers returned to the monetary policy fray earlier this week in comments at a conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He said both the Biden administration and the Fed had “underestimated the risks, very substantially, both to financial stability as well as to conventional inflation of protracted extremely low interest rates.” The latest policy projections from the Fed, based on the assumption that price rises – a 4.2 percent increase for the year to April – are “transitory” effects of the economic reopening and it will keep interest rates at historic lows at least until 2024. In his remarks Summers took direct aim at this scenario. “Policy projections suggesting rates may not be raised for … close to three years are creating a dangerous complacency,” he said, warning the Fed could be forced into a rapid tightening that would hit financial markets and the broader economy. “When, as I think is quite likely, there is a strong need to adjust policy, those adjustments will come as a surprise,” he said, and the “jolt” would “do real damage to financial stability, and may do real damage to the economy.”
Fed Alert: Overnight Reverse Repo Usage Soars Above Covid Crisis Highs –In today’s FOMC Minutes there was a brief section that received little focus amid the broader analysis of the Fed’s tapering, inflation language, yet which could be far more important in coming weeks in light of the violent move higher in overnight reverse repo usage.This is what the Fed said in its discussion of money market rates and the Fed’s balance sheet:Reserve balances increased further this intermeeting period to a record level of $3.9 trillion. The effective federal funds rate was steady at 7 basis points. However, amid ongoing strong demand for safe short-term investments and reduced Treasury bill supply, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) stood at 1 basis point throughout the period. The overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) facility continued to effectively support policy implementation, and take-up peaked at more than $100 billion. A modest amount of trading in overnight repurchase agreement (repo) markets occurred at negative rates, although this development appeared to largely reflect technical factors. The SOMA manager noted that downward pressure on overnight rates in coming months could result in conditions that warrant consideration of a modest adjustment to administered rates and could ultimately lead to a greater share of Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion being channeled into ON RRP and other Federal Reserve liabilities. Although few survey respondents expected an adjustment to administered rates at the current meeting, more than half expected an adjustment by the end of the June FOMC meeting.” This language confirms what we said last night when we discussed the spike in overnight reverse repo usage as part of the coming QE endgame..
Inflation sparks concerns in financial markets – There is growing nervousness in financial markets over the effect of inflation on the massive asset bubble that has developed in the past year as a result of the multi-trillion interventions by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks. Inflation warning signals have started to flash with the report last week that US consumer price inflation rose by 4.2 percent in April from a year earlier. While the Fed has insisted its ultra-easy monetary policies, which have fuelled the asset boom, will continue for the foreseeable future, there are fears that either interest rates in the bond market will start to rise or that the central bank will be forced to slam on the monetary brakes if price rises prove to be structural rather than “transitory” as it has maintained. Speaking at a conference last Tuesday, Lael Brainard, a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors, said the central bank had to be “patient” in pursuing its policies and made it clear the Fed was not even beginning to contemplate removing its support for financial markets. Having just overseen the Fed’s Financial Stability Report, which pointed to “vulnerabilities” in the financial system as investors engaged in increasingly risky strategies in the search for yield, Brainard was acutely aware that even the suggestion of an interest rate rise could have adverse consequences for the stock market and other financial assets. Speaking in the wake of figures showing a marked slowdown in labour market growth – April data revealed the US economy added only 266,000 jobs in April, well below expectations – she said: “The outlook is bright, but risks remain, and we are far from our goal. The latest employment report reminds us that realised outcomes can diverge from forward projections and underscores the value of patience.” On inflation, speaking before the latest numbers came out, she said remaining “patient” during a “transitory surge” in prices associated with re-opening would ensure that underlying momentum was “not curtailed by a premature tightening of financial conditions.” In other words, the Fed would not do anything to “spook” the financial markets and set off a major sell-off. The Fed is haunted by the prospect of a return of the conditions of March 2020, when markets froze, and the events of February 25 this year, when a tremor went through the financial system because 40 percent of a Treasury bond issue was not able to be sold.
Slack in the Economy, Not Inflation, Should Be Bigger Worry –With US consumer prices rising at 4.2% on an annual basis in April, the fears of those who have recently been predicting a sharp rise in inflation seem finally to have come true. Shortages of some commodities and some types of labor are fueling the debate about the possibility that inflation has come back to stay, making its way into expectations and forcing the Federal Reserve to change soon its current very expansive monetary stance. Some economists, like Lawrence Summers and Olivier Blanchard, were especially vocal in pointing out the dangers associated with the stimulus package later approved by Congress, fearing that another major fiscal effort on top of those enacted in 2020, would be much more than what would be needed to close the recessionary gap, thus causing overheating and potentially stoking long-dormant inflation. Others, like Paul Krugman, have judged these fears to be excessive. Based on the general consensus on the very flat slope of the Phillips curve in recent decades, he has noted that even an overheated economy would be unlikely to produce serious inflation. The latest numbers, far from entirely confirming the former view, reveal instead a rather nuanced situation. The increase of prices in April comes 12 months after the biggest drop due to the initial impact of the pandemic closures – which automatically produces high numbers. Moreover, it seems to be concentrated in particular items and sectors (used and rental cars, airfares, commodities such as copper and lumber) where a combination occurred, possibly of short duration, of bottlenecks in supply and a suddenly increasing demand. Officials at the Federal Reserve do not seem to be much worried, at least for the time being. They expected some increase in the rate of inflation associated with the re-openings, and bet that it will be transitory. Expected inflation as implicit in long-term interest rates, though increasing in 2021, is still quite moderate. Whether the US economy runs a serious risk of inflation will become clear in the next months. But one aspect of the debate is crucial, and it has to do with the supposed relationship between the size of the fiscal stimulus and the inflationary pressures. The main argument of those who predict a resurgence of inflation is that the big fiscal stimulus, even assuming cautiously small values for the various fiscal multipliers and even allowing for some savings on the part of the recipients of public transfers, could boost actual output several times well beyond the output gap – the distance between actual output and potential output. The latter is inferred from the estimates and projections produced by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), particularly in its last release ofFebruary 2021.
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy – These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red).This data is as of May 16th.The seven day average is down 34.5% from the same day in 2019 (65.5% of 2019). (Dashed line) The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through May 15, 2021.This data is “a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Dining picked up during the holidays, then slumped with the huge winter surge in cases. Dining was picking up again. Florida and Texas are above 2019 levels. This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through May 13th. Movie ticket sales were at $30 million last week, down about 85% from the median for the week. This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels – before 2020).Occupancy is now slightly above the horrible 2009 levels.This data is through May 8th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 17% compared to the same week in 2019). This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.Blue is for 2020. Red is for 2021.As of May 7th, gasoline supplied was off about 3.8% (about 96.2% of the same week in 2019).Gasoline supplied was up year-over-year, since at one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY in 2020. > This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: “This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities.” There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. This data is through May 15th for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 74% of the January 2020 level and moving up. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This is weekly data since 2015. This data is through Friday, May 14th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.
War as the Enemy of Reform: Biden’s Dilemma or His Excuse? – Is President Biden afflicted with the political equivalent of a split personality? His first several months in office suggest just that possibility. On the home front, the president’s inclination is clearly to Go Big. When it comes to America’s role in the world, however, the administration’s overarching foreign-policy theme is Take It Slow. Biden’s Build Back Better domestic campaign qualifies as a first cousin once removed of Roosevelt’s famed New Deal. That said, any political leader who embarks on an aggressive domestic reform program has to prevent the outside world from getting in the way. The New Deal was already running out of gas when the danger posed by a global struggle against Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan brought it to a screeching halt. Not least of all, during the ensuing Cold War, standing in immediate over-armed, over-funded readiness for the next war became a permanent priority. As a consequence, domestic matters took a backseat to a fundamentally militarized conception of what keeping Americans safe and guaranteeing their freedoms required. As the self-designated guardian of the “Free World,” the United States became a garrison state Let me suggest that the lessons of the Vietnam War remain notably relevant to our reform-minded administration of the present moment. Johnson’s mistake was to defer to an entrenched but deeply defective national security paradigm when the success of his domestic reforms demanded that he reject it. President Biden should take heed. To preserve his status as the latest reincarnation of FDR, Biden will have to avoid the errors in judgment that consigned LBJ’s Great Society to history’s junkheap. On the foreign-policy front, the Biden team can already claim some modest, if tentative achievements. President Biden has indeed preserved the New Start nuclear agreement with Russia. Unlike his predecessor, he acknowledges that climate change is an urgent threat requiring concerted action. He has signaled his interest in salvaging the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, more commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal. Perhaps most notably, he hasordered the complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, ending the longest war in American history. But Biden has left essentially untouched the core assumptions that justify the vast (and vastly well funded) national security apparatus created in the wake of World War II. Central to those assumptions is the conviction that global power projection, rather than national defense per se, defines the U.S. military establishment’s core mission. Washington’s insistence on asserting global primacy (typically expressed using euphemisms like “global leadership”) finds concrete expression in a determination to remain militarily dominant everywhere. So far at least, Biden shows no inclination to renounce, or even reassess, the practices that have evolved to pursue such global military dominion. These include Pentagon expenditures easily exceeding those of any adversary or even plausible combination of adversaries; an arms industry that corrupts American politics and openly subverts democracy; a massive, essentially unusable nuclear strike force presently undergoing a comprehensive $1.7 trillion “modernization”; a network of hundreds of bases hosting U.S. troop contingents in dozens of countries around the world; and, of course, an inclination to use force unmatched by any nation with the possible exception of Israel.
As Covid Ravages Poor Nations, Pharma Vaccine Profiteering Has Created 9 New Billionaires – A new analysis out Thursday shows that pharmaceutical companies’ immensely profitable monopoly control over coronavirus vaccines has produced nine new billionaires since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, which continues to ravage developing nations left largely without access to the life-saving shots. According to The People’s Vaccine Alliance – a global coalition of public health and humanitarian organizations – the nine newly minted billionaires have a combined net worth of $19.3 billion, “enough to fully vaccinate all people in low-income countries 1.3 times.” Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel and BioNTech CEO Ugur Sahin have amassed the largest fortunes of the newly created billionaires, with wealth of $4.3 billion and $4 billion respectively. Others on the list include Moderna founding investor Timothy Springer ($2.2 billion), Moderna chairman Noubar Afeyan ($1.9 billion), and CanSino Biologics co-founder Zhu Tao ($1.3 billion). “The highly effective vaccines we have are thanks to massive amounts of taxpayers’ money, so it can’t be fair that private individuals are cashing in while hundreds of millions face second and third waves completely unprotected,” said Heidi Chow, senior policy and campaigns manager at U.K.-based advocacy group Global Justice Now. “It is a sad indictment of the loyalties of some current governments that a handful of people working for pharmaceutical companies have been allowed to become billionaires off the back of publicly-funded efforts to end the pandemic,” Chow added. On top of adding to the global billionaire total – which has grown by the hundredssince the pandemic began – pharmaceutical companies’ stranglehold on vaccine production has significantly boosted the wealth of existing billionaires whose portfolios include vaccine manufacturers. The People’s Vaccine Alliance found that eight billionaires with “extensive” investments in coronavirus vaccine makers have “seen their combined wealth increase by $32.2 billion, enough to fully vaccinate everyone in India.”
Biden Administration/CDC “Mission Accomplished” Mask Reversal: Hubris? Incompetence? Toadying to Business? – Yves Smith — Whatever the abrupt and confusingly communicated CDC volte face on masking was about, it certainly wasn’t “following the science”. That is, unless “Follow the science” actually means “Follow what credentialed officials say, irrespective of whether it makes any sense.” At a minimum, Congresscritters need to haul CDC head Rochelle Walensky and Covid talking head in chief Anthony Fauci in to ‘splain their masking and social distancing 180. As readers have likely heard, the CDC issued new guidelines on Thursday which amount to declaring victory against Covid, with only 35% of Americans fully vaccinated and it not known whether “breakthrough” asymptomatic cases can spread the disease. The CDC thinks it’s now reasonable to operate on a vaccination honor system and have the vaccinated ditch masks and social distancing. This comes after at least two months of fulminating about the necessity of vaccine passports. I guess someone got the memo, as we pointed out early on, that they are non-starters in most US states due to privacy and civil rights laws. And if anyone was so deluded as to think this change would create an incentive to get vaccinated, they weren’t very imaginative: Recall that large-scale repeated testing in the UK has established that elementary-school children were 2x as likely as adults to bring Covid into a household, and older children, 7x as likely. These cases would all or nearly all have been asymptomatic. We have no basis for thinking that asymptomatic cases among the vaccinated operate any differently until we have evidence. But in an bureaucratic version of putting fingers in ears and yelling “Nah Nah Nah,” the CDC announced the week prior that it was no longer going to keep tabs on asymptomatic cases. The CDC’s own rationalization, to the extent it has one, is embarrassingly off point. Per CNN: A fresh batch of data from a big study of health care workers across the country helped prompt the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to say fully vaccinated people can go without masks in most circumstances, the agency said Friday. The study found that real-life use of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines provided 94% protection for the front-line workers immunized at the beginning of the vaccine rollout. A single dose provided 82% protection, the CDC-led team reported in the agency’s weekly report, the MMWR. “This report provided the most compelling information to date that COVID-19 vaccines were performing as expected in the real world,” Walensky said in a statement Friday. This is absurd. What about an irrelevant sample don’t you understand? First, having a medical professional in the family confers a health and longevity advantage, particularly in lower-income cohorts. Second, health care workers are by definition working … so this study omits the elderly, the population most at risk from bad Covid outcomes Third, the majority of heath care professionals are robust and active. Nurses, nursing home workers, ER doctors and surgeons spend a lot of time on their feet. Finally, health care workers would be super duper masked up at work, often with shields too, using gloves … .and with high quality ventilation, and strict hygiene standards! How can drug efficacy in a setting of required mask use tell you anything about efficacy with no masks?!?!
An Indictment of US Covid Policy – Yves Smith – Reader GM, who hangs with scientists who have published dozens of cutting-edge immunology papers, including on topics directly relevant to the intricacies of Covid pathogenesis, has provided, through a series of e-mails, a damning critique of US Covid policy. Thanks to America’s status in the global economy, it is well nigh impossible for other countries to pursue a markedly different path. As he described in a recent e-mail: The question that I have no answer to is when exactly was it decided to not contain it. If you remember, some information came out about early and mid-February 2020 closed Senate meetings, after which senators were selling their shares in hotels and airlines, i.e. what was going to happen in late March was known at that time. But it was not in fact too late to contain it in early February, it could have been done with test-trace-isolate. So maybe it was perceived at the time that it could not be, assuming the decision was made as late as possible within that timeline. But the earlier that decision happened, the more nefarious motivations one would have to suspect were involved, because why would you not at least try to contain it when it was eminently doable? After all SARS-1 was contained even though it reached hundreds of cases in Canada and the US. And then what followed was the outright sabotage of testing and detection by the CDC,1 the CDC allowing strongly suspected to be infected people to just get off their flight and walk right back into the community, and a rather long list of other such absurd actions. Maybe one day internal information will leak and we will learn the truth, who knows … Also, this all becomes even more gruesome when one realizes that the decision of the US to allow it to become endemic meant the same decision was imposed on most of the rest of the world, as the US controls it. As I said above, Eastern Europe (except for Belarus and Russia) took it very seriously early on and locked down before it had gotten out of hand, and was in fact very close to elimination. Montenegro, which eventually ended up being one of the worst affected countries, actually did eliminate it in May 2020.But once it became clear the US will not eliminate and the EU will not eliminate, those countries had no choice, although they could have at least held out for vaccines instead of letting it rip. There was never going to be a world in which the EU and Latin America have indefinitely banned travel out of the US, not with US military bases stationed all over Europe. And there was never going to be a world in which Bulgaria and Romania ban travel from Germany.The really sad part is that a country like Russia supposedly does have that independence, and could have gone for elimination and closed borders and a bubble with China. But modern Russia is not the USSR, it’s just as, if not more neoliberal than the US, so they let it rip too, for the same reasons as in the US … And now some the countries that did the right thing – Taiwan, Vietnam, and Laos – are encircled and battling their worst outbreaks since the start, which is heartbreaking to watch.
Sen. Kennedy presses CDC chief Rochelle Walensky on Wuhan virus research – Republican Sen. John Kennedy pressed CDC Director Rochelle Walensky during a Senate hearing Wednesday to follow up on a tense exchange last week between Dr. Anthony Fauci and Sen. Rand Paul on funding for so-called “gain of function” research in the Chinese lab at the center of COVID-19’s origins. Kennedy questioned Walensky about whether the US provided funding to the Wuhan lab for the controversial research, which focuses on making a virus more potent in the laboratory as a way to produce better vaccines against it. “Not to my knowledge,” she said, adding that Fauci would be the best person to answer that question. “Fauci seems confused,” Kennedy responded. “I’m asking, with all due respect, I’m asking you to give us that information: Where throughout the world, including, but not limited to the United States of America, are we doing research on these viruses to make them contagious in order to study them, that’s what I mean by ‘gain of function,'” Kennedy said. Walensky said she would have her staff look into it. “You’re the head of the CDC, I bet you get your phone calls returned,” he retorted. The Louisiana Republican also pressed Walensky to explain the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines released last week that have caused confusion about when masks are still required in certain situations. He asked why, for example, he doesn’t have to wear a mask in the Senate because he’s vaccinated for coronavirus but must still wear one if he walks across the Capitol to the House of Representatives. “Based on CDC recommendations, if I walk over to the House, are you recommending I wear a mask,” he asked Walensky. “We have really encouraged that the policies of mask wearing be locally driven, and the reason for that is because every community, every county has different rates of disease and different rates of vaccination,” she said. “What’s different about the House?” he asked. Walensky responded that she didn’t know the rate of vaccination for members of Congress off the “top of my head.”
IRS to start monthly payments of child tax credit July 15 – The Biden administration on Monday announced it will start to make monthly payments of the expanded child tax credit on July 15. Households that account for about 65 million children, or 88 percent of children in the United States, will receive the payments without needing to take any additional action. Payments will be made automatically to about 39 million households, the administration said. The administration’s announcement, which coincides with Monday’s deadline for individuals to file their 2020 tax returns, provides more details about how the Treasury Department and the IRS plan to implement a key part of the coronavirus relief law President Biden enacted in March, called the American Rescue Plan Act. “The American Rescue Plan is delivering critical tax relief to middle class and hard-pressed working families with children,” Biden said in a statement. “With today’s announcement, about 90% of families with children will get this new tax relief automatically, starting in July.” Biden’s coronavirus relief law expanded the child tax credit in several ways for 2021, in an effort to reduce child poverty. One aspect of the changes to the credit is that the relief law directs the IRS to make advance payments of the credit on a periodic basis from July to December, so that people receive funds in installments throughout the year rather than a single payment when they file their 2021 tax returns. The advance payments are aimed at helping families to better plan their budgets. Biden’s relief law also increased the maximum credit amount from $2,000 to $3,600 for children under age 6 and $3,000 for older children. Additionally, the law made the credit fully refundable, which will allow the lowest-income families to be eligible for the credit. Treasury and the IRS said that families will receive up to half the amount of the credit to which they are entitled for 2021 in monthly payments from July through December, and they will receive the other half when they file their 2021 tax returns next year. Eligible families will receive monthly payments of up to $300 for children under 6, and up to $250 for children ages 6 and older.
New York included undocumented immigrants in pandemic aid, and 290,000 workers will benefit: Other states should replicate the program –EPI Blog –This April, New York committed an unprecedented $2.1 billion of the state budget to make up for the exclusion of undocumented immigrants from federal aid during the COVID-19 pandemic.Over a year ago, the pandemic hit New York early and brutally hard. Hospitals were full, and there were heart-wrenching backlogs in burying the dead as its limit. It quickly became clear that immigrants and people of color were disproportionately among those falling sick and dying. At the same time, the notion of “essential workers” took hold, and New Yorkers applauded the people keeping life going for the rest of us, knowing that many were immigrants, including large numbers who were undocumented. The unemployment rate spiked to16% and was even higher for people of color and immigrants.Yet, the first round of desperately needed federal aid very specifically excluded many immigrants. Future rounds of aid under both the Trump and Biden administrations continued to exclude undocumented individuals from expanded unemployment insurance and stimulus checks. The exclusion of undocumented immigrants, and in some cases their families, came as a slap in the face to community groups and immigrant advocates. Make the Road New York – an immigrant-led workers’ rights advocacy group – conducted a survey that showed overwhelming job loss and loss of life among the communities they serve. In the end, 90 members of Make the Road alone passed away because of COVID-19. Out of this sense of outrage came the Fund Excluded Workers Coalition, which quickly gained over 200 member organizations and moved forward powerfully under the leadership of Make the Road, New York Communities for Change, and other groups with deep roots in immigrant communities and communities of color.The coalition led an escalating campaign with rallies, a protest outside the governor’s office, a day when two New York City bridges were shut down, and a moving hunger strike that lasted for 23 days. The Fiscal Policy Institute’s (FPI) Immigration Research Initiative was a part of the coalition.When the New York Assembly and Senate each put $2.1 billion in their budget proposals, we kept the pressure on by bringing media attention to the fact that the real need was even higher, helping ensure that negotiations didn’t whittle that number down. When there was a pause between campaign actions, we helped keep the issue in the news by showing the recession’s devastating impact on people of color and immigrants. And, when the deal was finalized, we showed how many workers would benefit, and what the boost would be to local economies.
Chinese businessman with links to Steve Bannon is driving force for a sprawling disinformation network, researchers say – A sprawling online network tied to Chinese businessman Guo Wengui has become a potent platform for disinformation in the United States, attacking the safety of coronavirus vaccines, promoting false election-fraud claims and spreading baseless QAnon conspiracies, according to research published Monday by the network analysis company Graphika.The report, provided in advance to The Washington Post, details a network that Graphika says amplifies the views of Guo, a Chinese real estate developer whose association with former Trump White House adviser Stephen K. Bannon became a focus of news coverage last year after Bannon was arrested aboard Guo’s yacht on federal fraud charges. Graphika said the network includes media websites such as GTV, for which Guo last year publicly said he was raising funds, along with thousands of social media accounts that Graphika said amplify content in a coordinated fashion. The network also includes more than a dozen local-action groups over which Guo has publicly claimed an oversight role, Graphika found. Graphika’s research sheds more light on Guo, a onetime billionaire real estate developer who, in addition to his relationship with Bannon, has drawn attention for the confusing mix of disinformation and invective he has broadcast since moving to the United States, including contradictory attacks on both the Chinese Communist Party and anti-CCP dissidents in the West.The Graphika report “is an important forensic analysis of the ways that rich and politically motivated people can manipulate social media,” said Joan Donovan, director of the Technology and Social Change Research Project at Harvard’s Shorenstein Center.Other analysts also have identified the network as boosting Guo-related media and aligned political messaging. Alethea Group, a firm that tracks disinformation and other online threats, said it had detected an effort in November to spread disinformation in Spanish.
Report shows CEOs in US cashed in during the pandemic as workers lost jobs, wages and lives — The Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) published a significant report on May 11 that details the rigging of executive compensation plans by corporate boards during the pandemic, so that vast sums could be funneled into the pockets of millionaire executives while workers suffered unemployment, reduced wages, exposure to COVID-19 and death. Under the title “Pandemic Pay Plunder,” the top finding of the IPS’ 27th Annual Executive Excess report is that among the top US corporations with the lowest paid workforces, CEOs received a 29 percent increase in compensation, while workers’ wages fell by 2 percent on average last year. The IPS research shows that 51 out of the 100 corporations on the S&P 500 list with the lowest median worker wages bent corporate rules during the pandemic to ensure that their CEOs increased their compensation by an average of $4 million, to a total of $15.3 million, while workers’ wages fell by more than $550 to $28,187. The CEO-to-worker pay ratio for these corporations reached 830 to 1. “American families have been simply unable, on their own, to bear the COVID crisis. Meanwhile, corporate chief executives in the United States have continued to score the sorts of windfalls that have ballooned billionaire wealth.” In explaining how corporate boards modified compensation rules to ensure a windfall for executives, the report says that the companies engaged “in various rigging maneuvers” such as (1) lowering the performance numbers so executives could meet their bonus targets, (2) awarding special “retention” bonuses, (3) excluding poor second-quarter (March-May 2020) results from performance evaluations and (4) replacing performance-based awards with time-based awards. The IPS report says that “an army of ‘independent’ compensation consultants” was retained by the corporate boards in order to “give all this rule-rigging a veneer of legitimacy.” In relation to the Carnival compensation scam, the report notes that the company stranded employees at sea for months while it scrambled to get customers back home. But after securing $6 billion in low-cost financing from the US Federal Reserve, it gave CEO Arnold Donald special pandemic “retention and incentive” stock grants valued at more than $5 million. “Arnold’s total 2020 compensation came to $13.3 million, 490 times the company’s $27,151 median worker pay” the report states. The IPS study does not mention reports that nearly a dozen cruise line workers died in suicides committed during the lengthy period of forced isolation without pay on ships, or as a result of mental health problems after they came ashore.
Fidelity Launches Trading Accounts For Teens As Battle For Next Generation Of Day Traders Heats Up –Fidelity once tried to offset its image as a stodgy retirement-focused investment giant by allowing customers to integrate their crypto holdings into their Fidelity dashboard. But after Robinhood and WeBull attracted millions of millennial customers, Fidelity is finally trying to woo the next generation of investors in an effort to protect its business from shifting generational tastes. And since younger investors have signaled that they prefer the gamefied, zero-commission speculation free-for-all to contributing a predetermined percentage of their paychecks to a retirement account, Fidelity has decided to give them what they want. As WSJ reports, in an effort to “open the door to a new generation of investors”, Fidelity is launching new credit and debit cards, along with investing and savings accounts, to teenagers aged 13 to 17. Like Robinhood and its other competitors, Fidelity won’t charge account fees or Fidelity already operates one of the largest online brokerages in the country and offers $0 trading fees like Charles Schwab, E-Trade and the other big discount brokerages. But competition for the next generation of customers has grown particularly fierce over the past year. And after lagging its competitors on earlier innovations like zero-fee stock trading, the firm is angling to get a jump start on getting more teenagers addicted to day trading. In the case of Fidelity’s new offering, a parent must open the account and agree to backstop their child’s trading. But after that, the teenager will have complete control over all trades. Parents can sign up for alerts for the child’s transactions, and step in to close the account if things get out of hand, but that’s not required. And with so many other things to keep track of, including their child’s activities on social media, parents can easily lose track of their child’s trading.
Banks Fight $4 Billion Debt Relief Plan for Black Farmers – The New York Times – The Biden administration’s efforts to provide $4 billion in debt relief to minority farmers is encountering stiff resistance from banks, which are complaining that the government initiative to pay off the loans of borrowers who have faced decades of financial discrimination will cut into their profits and hurt investors. The debt relief was approved as part of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package that Congress passed in March and was intended to make amends for the discrimination that Black and other nonwhite farmers have faced from lenders and the United States Department of Agriculture over the years. But no money has yet gone out the door. Instead, the program has become mired in controversy and lawsuits. In April, white farmers who claim that they are victims of reverse discrimination sued the U.S.D.A. over the initiative. Now, three of the biggest banking groups – the American Bankers Association, the Independent Community Bankers of America and National Rural Lenders Association – are waging their own fight and complaining about the cost of being repaid early. Their argument stems from the way banks make money from loans and how they decide where to extend credit. When a bank lends money to a borrower, like a farmer, it considers several factors, including how much interest it will earn over the lifetime of the loan and whether the bank can sell the loan to other investors. By allowing borrowers to repay their debts early, the lenders are being denied income they have long expected, they argue. The banks want the federal government to pay money beyond the outstanding loan amount so that banks and investors will not miss out on interest income that they were expecting or money that they would have made reselling the loans to other investors. They also want other investors who bought the loans in the secondary market to get government money that would make up for whatever losses they might incur from the early payoff. Bank lobbyists, in letters and virtual meetings, have been asking the Agriculture Department to make changes to the repayment program, a U.S.D.A. official said. They are pressing the U.S.D.A. to simply make the loan payments, rather than wipe out the debt all at once. And they are warning of other repercussions, including long-term damage to the U.S.D.A.’s minority lending program. “If U.S.D.A. does not compensate lenders for such disruptions or avoid sudden loan payoffs, the likely result will be less access to credit for those seeking U.S.D.A. guaranteed loans in the future, including U.S.D.A. farmers/ranchers,” they wrote to Mr. Vilsack in April. The relief legislation that Congress passed in March provided “sums as may be necessary” from the Treasury Department to help minority farmers and ranchers pay off loans granted or guaranteed by the Agriculture Department. Most of the loans are made directly to farmers, but about 12 percent, or 3,078, are made through lenders and guaranteed by the U.S.D.A. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the loan forgiveness provision would cost $4 billion over a decade.
Lingering pain point for PPP lenders- Forgiveness on large loans As the final cutoff for Paycheck Protection Program lending nears, forgiveness for large-dollar loans continues to be a sticking point for lenders. Though some bankers say the Small Business Administration has made progress whittling down a backlog of overdue forgiveness applications, others complain about requests that have sat in the queue for months with no word from the agency about when they’ll be resolved. “With smaller loans, they get them in and get them out. … It’s a really straightforward process,” said Bobby Berman, group executive vice president, research and strategy at the $44 billion-asset Frost Bank, a unit of San Antonio-based Cullen/Frost Bankers. “On the larger ones that require more review, it just seems like they’re a little resource constrained.” Per program regulations, loans can be forgiven if a borrower proves that the bulk of the money was used to make payroll, pay rent and meet other expenses. The SBA has 90 days to review a forgiveness application once a lender submits it. For smaller loans, especially those under $100,000, three months is proving to be more than enough time. But the agency has struggled mightily to hit that time target on larger loans. “We have 200 or 300 loans that have blown past 90 days; some of them past 200 days,” Berman said. “That’s a tough conversation, when a company has applied for a loan, gone through all the rigor of an extra review, given all the documentation they need and here we are, 200 days later. They’re saying, `Frost, what’s going on?'” Frost approved more than 32,000 PPP loans for $4.7 billion. Forgiveness applications covering three-fourths of its 2020 originations have been submitted to the SBA, Berman said. As of May 10, the SBA, which has administered PPP along with the Department of the Treasury, reported forgiving nearly 60% of the 5.2 million loans approved last year. At the same time, it noted 182,000 loans, totaling $84.3 billion, remain under review. Loans of $2 million or more make up a significant portion of that total, lenders and trade group representatives said. Overall, lenders have originated just under 11.2 million loans for $788.1 billion, making PPP the largest emergency relief program in American history.
Bank lobbyists blast lawmakers’ plans for ‘unbanked’ Americans – The biggest U.S. banks criticized a pair of proposals designed to help consumers who don’t use their services. Lawmakers’ recent proposals, such as opening bank branches in post offices or offering Federal Reserve checking accounts to every U.S. consumer, may not work to resolve the problem of the so-called unbanked Americans, industry trade groups argued in a paper published Tuesday. Instead, they urged officials to consider creating new types of identification that consumers can show to access financial services, or encouraging Americans to open low-cost bank accounts when they’re enrolling to receive government assistance. “Instead of establishing a large, duplicative and potentially expensive banking infrastructure to create bank accounts through the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Postal Service (postal banking), there are more effective and less costly ways to address the unbanked/underbanked challenge,” the trade groups said in a statement accompanying the paper. The groups represent U.S. banks and credit unions and include the Clearing House, the American Bankers Association, the Consumer Bankers Association, the Credit Union National Association, the Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America and the National Bankers Association. For years, lenders have offered low-fee checking accounts as part of an industrywide initiative known as Bank On. But those efforts haven’t been a total success: Consumers still spend billions each year in overdraft and other account fees, and 7.1 million households across the country continue to lack access to a bank account. While that number has declined in recent years, the proportion of unbanked Black and Hispanic households remains higher than the national average. As protests over racial inequality engulfed the U.S. last year, policymakers and banks alike vowed to do more to ensure communities of color could access low-cost financial services as a way to close the persistent racial wealth gap. “Obviously it’s important because of the spotlight last year on all of the horrific events that our country endured,” Alice Rodriguez, managing director and head of JPMorgan Chase’s community-impact organization, said in an interview. “Several years ago we absolutely saw the need to lean in more, particularly from a financial-health perspective, and that led us down this path of the unbanked and the underbanked.” Without access to traditional financial services, consumers often turn to nonbank competitors, which typically charge higher rates or bigger fees. Check-cashing companies, for instance, can take as much of 10% of a check’s value for their services. Relying on prepaid debit cards can cost consumers as much as $300 a year.
Banks no longer have to limit savings withdrawals, but some still do — In the early days of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve temporarily axed a requirement that had limited the ability of depositors to make transfers and withdrawals from savings and money market accounts. At the time, the nation was largely in lockdown, so consumers were having a hard time conducting in-branch transactions, which were exempt from the preexisting rules. One year later, the Fed has declared that the changes are permanent, though some additional tweaks may still be made – an example of a crisis prompting long-lasting change. The changes give banks freer rein to make their own decisions about the terms of their savings accounts. And while some banks have not budged, others have dropped a six-transaction limit that was required under the old rule. “We just thought of it as an accommodation: How could we help customers while the pandemic is happening, and they can’t necessarily get out?” said William Calderara, president and CEO of Ulster Savings Bank in Kingston, New York, which received the Fed’s approval to waive the monthly transaction limit a few weeks before the temporary rule change was announced. But Calderara’s thinking has evolved as the U.S. economy has returned to greater normalcy. His $1.3 billion-asset mutual savings bank does not plan to reinstate the six-transaction limit. “Why are we doing this temporarily, and does this rule still make sense?” he asked. The Fed’s interim final rule enabled banks to allow customers to make an unlimited number of “convenient transfers and withdrawals” from savings and money market accounts during a time when the economic shock of the pandemic made “such access more urgent,” the central bank said in a press release at the time. Under the old rules, remote transactions, such as those made online, were limited to six per month, though in-branch, ATM and telephone transactions were excluded from the limit. The change – effective on April 24, 2020 – was an amendment to Regulation D, the federal rule that requires banks and credit unions to keep a certain amount of reserves on hand to satisfy withdrawal requests. It was announced a month after reserve requirement ratios were reduced to zero, a change to the Fed’s monetary policy that had undercut the rationale for the old limits. A Fed spokeswoman said recently that the rule is considered final. On its website, the central bank states that its board of governors “does not have plans to re-impose transfer limits,” although there may be “adjustments to the definition of savings accounts” based on comments received about the interim final rule. Banks’ responses to the relaxed rule have been a mixed bag, in part because the banks were not obligated to make any changes and, at least in some cases, because of confusion about whether the amendment is final. While some banks discontinued the cap of six transactions per month, either temporarily or permanently, others made no changes at all.
Homeowners’ Insurance Companies in Florida Are Raising Rates by Unprecedented Amounts, Effectively Confiscating the Stimulus Checks from Struggling Families and Seniors – Pam Martens – On February 24, President Joe Biden renewed the 2020 Presidential Proclamation, making it clear that the National Emergency related to the COVID-19 pandemic is still in effect. Most Americans don’t expect to become the victims of state-sanctioned price gouging during a National Emergency. But across Florida, struggling families and senior citizens are opening their homeowners’ insurance renewal notices to learn that their policy will now cost them $800 to $1200 more than it did last year.Rates are going up by 30 to 40 percent in many cases – during a National Emergency. Making the outrage among residents more palpable is the fact that a hurricane didn’t even touch down in Florida in 2020.A three bedroom/two bath cement block home with a tile roof is costing anywhere from $2800 to more than $3000 to insure in South Florida. In the three most southern counties on the East Coast of Florida (Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade) homes located inland can cost over $6,000 to ensure with nose-bleed increases occurring for waterfront homes.Florida insurance companies (some of which are paying multi-million dollar salaries to their CEOs and paying out tens of millions of dollars each year in stock buybacks and cash dividends to benefit their shareholders), have succeeded in convincing the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation that they deserve the rate hikes because they are the victims of frivolous lawsuits by unconscionable lawyers; they are experiencing financial hardship for claims still being paid for Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Michael in 2018; and that their reinsurance costs have risen.One Florida State legislator who’s not buying the spin that the insurers are successfully selling to state regulators is Florida State Senator Gary Farmer. Farmer was quoted by Dennis Bailey, a former Circuit Judge and now head of the Trial division at the Merlin Law Group, as follows:”They hide their profits. They pay them to sister and related companies … The insurers are just cooking the books and coming here and crying poverty to us and everything is being done on the backs of homeowners.”Bailey reports that “The insurance companies together made anywhere from $240 million to $406 million a year just on their flood work since 2011 – without having to pay any claims.” The culprit behind these rate increases is the Florida Office of Insurance Regulationwhich granted 105 rate hikes last year, sometimes giving a rate increase multiple times to the same company. That Office is led by Florida Insurance Commissioner David Altmaier, who previously worked as a Florida-licensed insurance agent and a high school math teacher, according to his official bio.
Millions in US Face Eviction When Moratorium Ends – – Families across the U.S. don’t know if they’re going to have a place to stay as states challenge the federal moratorium on evictions imposed during the pandemic. The trickle of evictions could soon become a flood as renters owe $53 billion to landlords. Anthony Upshaw and his 17-year-old son are among those being evicted after Upshaw lost this job early in the pandemic and has been struggling since. Constables placed his belongings in the front yard of the Dallas property. “They going to show up and kick me out. My kid is up here doing his school work. There’s like three weeks of school left before the kids graduate,” Upshaw said. The Texas Supreme Court lifted the moratorium on evictions on March 31. The Dallas-Fort Worth area has the third-most eviction filings in the country. “They are going to put everyone out the first chance they got,” Upshaw said, adding that he doesn’t know where he and his son will go. “We haven’t figured that part of it out yet.” “My goal was just to make it to the end of the school year and then in the summer, we can make plans and try to reassess the national situation, getting vaccinated and then make adjustments to our lives from there. But the moratorium was supposed to protect everybody until the end of June,” he said. This could be the beginning of an expected tsunami of evictions as the nationwide moratorium is lifted on June 30. Up the 40 million Americans are at risk of losing their homes, according to the Aspen Institute. On average, Black renters are twice as likely as White renters to face evictions, according to the American Civil Liberties Union.
MBA Survey: “Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 4.22%” —Note: This is as of May 9th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 4.22%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 14 basis points from 4.36% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 4.22% as of May 9, 2021. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.1 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 8 basis points to 2.24%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 21 basis points to 5.61%, while the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased by 29 basis points to 8.26%. The percentage of loans in forbearance for independent mortgage bank (IMB) servicers decreased 16 basis points to 4.42%, and the percentage of loans in forbearance for depository servicers declined 12 basis points to 4.35%.”More homeowners exited forbearance in the first full week of May, leading to a 14-basis-point decrease in the forbearance share – the 11th straight week of declines. The rate of new requests dropped to 4 basis points, which is the lowest level since last March,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Of those in forbearance extensions, more than half have been in forbearance for more than 12 months.”Added Fratantoni, “The opening of the economy, as the successful vaccination effort continues, should lead to further reductions in the forbearance share. However, many homeowners continue to struggle. Borrowers who are reaching the end of their forbearance term should reach out to their servicer to review their options.”This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has trended down since then.The MBA notes: “Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased relative to the prior week: from 0.05% to 0.04%”
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly – Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of May 18th. From Black Knight: After Sustained Improvement, Forbearance Volumes Increase This week, forbearance volumes rose by 16k (+0.74%), which marks only the second increase over the past twelve weeks. The rise this week is attributed to typical mid-month behavior, which had been suppressed in recent months due to strong declines. The 1k (-0.1%) weekly decline in forbearances among GSE loans was more than offset by a 4k (+0.5%) increase among FHA/VA loans and a 13k (+2.2%) increase among portfolio held and privately securitized mortgages.Plan starts were driven up this week thanks mostly to an increase in restart activity, which was expected for the middle of the month and amidst the large volume of removals we’ve seen in recent months. Removals also fell to their lowest level since February, driven by the low volume of review activity that took place this week. Nearly 190k plans are still listed with May 2021 expirations, providing a moderate opportunity for additional improvements over the next two weeks and more acutely in early June. Another 830k plans are currently slated for review for extension or removal in June, the final quarterly review before early forbearance entrants begin to reach their 18-month plan expirations later this year.As of May 18, 2.18 million (4.1% of) homeowners remain in COVID-19-related forbearance plans, including 2.4% of GSE loans, 7.3% of FHA/VA loans, and 4.7% of portfolio/PLS loans.
Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in April –Note: A year ago, in April 2020, the delinquency rate increased sharply (see table below). Loans in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this survey, but those loans are not reported as delinquent to the credit bureaus.From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Mortgage Delinquencies Decline Another 7% in April; At Current Rate of Improvement, Delinquencies to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels By Year’s End
The number of past-due mortgages improved again in April, as the national delinquency rate fell to 4.66% from 5.02% in March
New delinquencies rose 23% from March’s record lows, but are down 33% from April 2019, while more than 400,000 (14% of) homeowners past-due on their mortgages became current on payments
Serious delinquencies (loans 90 or more days past due but not yet in foreclosure) saw strong improvement as well, falling by 151,000 for the month
Nearly 1.8 million first-lien mortgages remain seriously delinquent, 1.3 million more than there were heading into the pandemic
Both foreclosure starts and active foreclosure inventory hit new record lows once again in April as both moratoriums and borrower forbearance plan participation continue to limit activity
Mortgage prepayments fell nearly 23% in April to their lowest level since May 2020, reflecting the impact on refinance activity of interest rate spikes earlier this year
Black Knight’s April Originations Market Monitor report also showed that rate locks have fallen further over the past month, suggesting prepay volumes will likely be muted in the months to come.
According to Black Knight’s First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 7.1% in April compared to March, and decreased 27% year-over-year. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 6.3% in April and were down 29% over the last year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 4.66% in April, down from 5.02% in March. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased in April to 0.29%, from 0.30% in March.The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 900,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 58,000 properties year-over-year.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.85 million in April –From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decline 2.7% in April –Existing-home sales waned in April, marking three straight months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors. All but one of the four major U.S. regions witnessed month-over-month drops in home sales, but each registered double-digit year-over-year gains for April. Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slipped 2.7% from March to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.85 million in April. Sales overall jumped year-over-year, up 33.9% from a year ago (4.37 million in April 2020). … Total housing inventory at the end of April amounted to 1.16 million units, up 10.5% from March’s inventory and down 20.5% from one year ago (1.46 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.4-month supply at the current sales pace, slightly up from March’s 2.1-month supply and down from the 4.0-month supply recorded in April 2020. These numbers continue to represent near-record lows. NAR first began tracking the single-family home supply in 1982. This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in April (5.85 million SAAR) were down 2.7% from last month, and were 33.9% above the April 2020 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.16 million in April from 1.05 million in March. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was down 20.5% year-over-year in April compared to April 2020. Months of supply increased to 2.4 months in April from 2.1 months in March. This was below the consensus forecast.
Existing vs. new home sales: sales have peaked, expect prices to soon — Even though existing home sales constitute about 90% of the housing market, they have much less impact on the economy overall than new home sales (because all of the economic activity involved in building the house, and then landscaping the outside and furnishing the inside). But they can be a comparison with new home sales, particularly as they are a competing product. And the procession of data is the same: interest rates lead sales, which in turn lead prices, which in turn lead inventory. Existing home sales for April confirmed what we have already seen with new home sales: the market peaked at the turn of the year. Sales declined 2.7%, seasonally adjusted, compared with March, to 5.85 million units annualized. That is the lowest number since last July’s 5.90 million. It is about -12% below the January peak of 6.66 million. Below I show both new (blue) and existing (red) home sales for the past year: Earlier this week we saw that housing permits and starts are both also off of their highest point of December and January. Median prices, however, continued to climb to a new all time high of $341,600, a YoY gain of 19.1%, the highest YoY gain on record. Inventory continued to decline, to less than 2 months’. I fully expect prices to reverse in the coming months, and I also expect inventory to increase.
Real-Estate Frenzy Overwhelms Small-Town America: ‘I Came Home Crying’ – WSJ — Dominic Pollock, still in his work boots, stood on the lawn of a 1960s-era three-bedroom house for sale in the former steel town of Bethlehem, Pa., 60 miles north of Philadelphia. It was listed at $250,000. “I really, really like it,” Mr. Pollock told his real-estate agent Danny Hazim, a buddy from high school in neighboring Allentown, Pa. Groups of other interested buyers huddled nearby and whispered to their agents in urgent tones, casting sly glances at rivals.Mr. Pollock, 25 years old, was willing to go above the asking price. He and his fiancee, Brooke Terplan, 26, had made more than 20 offers on houses over nine months. Each time, they were outbid.The couple had hoped to land a home by their wedding this week and begin a life together. Mr. Pollock lived with his brother, and Ms. Terplan, a labor-and-delivery nurse, lived with her parents. Like many would-be buyers, they braced for disappointment. Home prices in the U.S. have shot up in the past year, driven by limited supply, record-low interest rates and buyer demand. Bidding wars have spread from such high-profile locations as Palm Beach, Fla., and the suburbs outside New York City to smaller cities and towns, including long-neglected locales where properties typically sat on the market for months.Local buyers bid against one another as well as against investors who now comprise about a fifth of annual home sales nationally. Online platforms such as BiggerPockets and Fundrise make it easier for out-of-town investors to buy real estate in smaller cities across the U.S., said John Burns of California-based John Burns Real Estate Consulting.Often, Mr. Burns said, “the cash flows are better in the Tulsas and Allentowns of the world” for those seeking to rent out properties. In the fourth quarter of 2020, nearly a fifth of homes sold in the Allentown area were bought by investors, according to Mr. Burns’s data.The median listed price for a house jumped 24% in January from a year earlier in the metropolitan area surrounding Allentown, the Rust-Belt city whose decline was memorialized in a 1982 Billy Joel song, according to data from Realtor.com. It was the same in such spots as Martin, Tenn., a small city 150 miles from Nashville, where the median asking price went up 159% over the same period; in Kendallville, Ind., about 30 miles outside Fort Wayne, it climbed 56%. The average price for a house in the Allentown metro area, which includes Bethlehem, was about $225,000 a year ago, said Jonathan Campbell, vice president of DLP Realty in Bethlehem. It has since shot past $270,000 in a market so hot that open houses trigger traffic jams, and properties sell in 48 hours. Many homeowners want to sell while prices are high but hesitate for fear they won’t find an affordable place to move. Housing supplies can’t meet demand.Buyers feel pressure to make snap decisions, and some forgo routine home inspections for fear of losing to another bidder. “If you’re a buyer, this is the most frustrating time,” Mr. Campbell said. The local market, he said, is outpacing the mid-2000s housing boom.
Comments on April Existing Home Sales – McBride — Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.85 million in April – A few key points:
- 1) This was the highest sales rate for April since 2006, and the 4th highest sales rate for April on record (behind 2004, 2005, and 2006). Some of the increase over the last ten months was probably related to record low mortgage rates, a move away from multi-family rentals, strong second home buying (to escape the high-density cities), a strong stock market and favorable demographics. Also, the delay in the 2020 buying season pushed the seasonally adjusted number to very high levels over the winter. This means there are going to be some difficult comparisons in the second half of 2021!
- 2) Inventory is very low, and was down 20.5% year-over-year (YoY) in April. Also, as housing economist Tom Lawler has noted, the local MLS data shows even a larger decline in active inventory (the NAR appears to include some pending sales in inventory). Lawler noted: “As I’ve noted before, the inventory measure in most publicly-released local realtor/MLS reports excludes listings with pending contracts, but that is not the case for many of the reports sent to the NAR (referred to as the “NAR Report!”), Since the middle of last Spring inventory measures excluding pending listings have fallen much more sharply than inventory measures including such listings, and this latter inventory measure understates the decline in the effective inventory of homes for sale over the last several months.” It seems likely that active inventory is down close to 50% year-over-year.Months-of-supply at 2.4 months is still very low, but above the record low of 1.9 months set in December 2020 and January 2021. Inventory will be important to watch in 2021, see: Some thoughts on Housing Inventory
- 3) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler’s forecast was closer to the NAR report than the Consensus. The NAR reported 5.85 million SAAR, Lawler estimated the NAR would report 5.96 million SAAR, and the consensus was 6.09 million SAAR.
This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2020 and 2021.The year-over-year comparisons will be easy in May and June, and then difficult in the second half of the year. The second graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), since 2005.Sales NSA in April (513,000) were 37.5% above sales last year in April (373,000). This was the highest sales for April (NSA) since 2006.
Housing Starts decreased to 1.569 Million Annual Rate in April – From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions: Privatelyâ€owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,569,000. This is 9.5 percent below the revised March estimate of 1,733,000, but is 67.3 percent above the April 2020 rate of 938,000. Singleâ€family housing starts in April were at a rate of 1,087,000; this is 13.4 percent below the revised March figure of 1,255,000. The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 470,000.Privatelyâ€owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,760,000. This is 0.3 percent above the revised March rate of 1,755,000 and is 60.9 percent above the April 2020 rate of 1,094,000. Singleâ€family authorizations in April were at a rate of 1,149,000; this is 3.8 percent below the revised March figure of 1,194,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 559,000 in April The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) increased slightly in April compared to March. Multi-family starts were up 91% year-over-year in April.Single-family starts (blue) decreased in April, and were up 59% year-over-year (starts slumped at the beginning of the pandemic). The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery (but still not historically high).Total housing starts in April were below expectations, and starts in February and March were revised down.
Single-Family Housing Starts Crash In April – After April’s massive catch up surge (following March’s weather-driven dip), Housing Starts and Permits data was expected to slow (or contract) in April as higher rates, and even higher prices (amid demand and higher commodity costs) begin to stymie the unprecedented buying-panic in the housing market over the past year. However, the retracement was far larger with Starts plunging 9.5% MoM (against -2.0% MoM expected) after March’s upwardly revised 19.8% rise and Permits rising just 0.3% MoM (half the expected 0.6% MoM rise) after March’s revised lower 1.7% rise… Is the housing boom over? Housing Starts plunge was dominated by a 13.4% plunge in Single-family home starts (while Multi-family (Rental) was up 4.0%)… Housing Permits saw the opposite pattern to Starts with Single Family down 3.8% and Multi-family (Rental) up 11.1% The Midwest saw Starts crash 34.8% (and the South dropped 11.5%) while The West (+9.0%) and Northeast (+6.2%) both rose. The Widwest also led the weakness in Permits, dropping 9.9%, along with The West (-4.1%) while The South (+3.9%) and Northeast (+8.4%) both saw increased activity. Finally, as we noted yesterday, the vast gap of incredulity between homebuilders’ record high confidence and homebuyers’ record low confidence remains a key harbinger of problems ahead (and/or perhaps a sign of the inexorably growing inequality gap created by The Fed)…
Comments on April Housing Starts – Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.569 Million Annual Rate in April It is possible that supply constraints held back housing starts in April. Here is a comment from MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni: “Single-family starts in April dropped more than 13% compared to last month, but permits to build single-family homes saw a smaller decline. This is consistent with reports that builders are delaying starting new construction because of the marked increase in costs for lumber and other inputs. Moreover, builders are also reporting difficulty obtaining other inputs like appliances.”Total housing starts in April were below expectations, and starts in February and March were revised down slightly. Single family starts decreased in April, but were up 59% year-over-year (starts declined at the beginning of the pandemic). The volatile multi-family sector is up sharply year-over-year (apartments were under pressure from COVID). The housing starts report showed total starts were down 9.5% in April compared to March, and total starts were up 67.3% year-over-year compared to April 2020.Low mortgage rates and limited existing home inventory have given a boost to single family housing starts. The first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2020 (blue) and 2021 (red). Starts were up 67.3% in April compared to April 2020. The year-over-year comparison will be easy again in May and June. 2020 was off to a strong start before the pandemic, and with low interest rates and little competing existing home inventory, starts finished 2020 strong. Starts have started 2021 strong (February was impacted by the harsh weather).Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment).These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions.The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions.The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily for several years following the great recession – then mostly moved sideways. Completions (red line) had lagged behind – then completions caught up with starts- then starts picked up a little again late last year, but have fallen off with the pandemic.The last graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion – so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions. Single family starts are getting back to more normal levels, but I still expect some further increases in single family starts and completions on a rolling 12 month basis – especially given the low level of existing home inventory.
Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design – Along with the monthly housing starts for April this week, the Census Bureau released Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design through Q1 2021. This graph shows the NSA quarterly intent for four start categories since 1975: single family built for sale, owner built (includes contractor built for owner), starts built for rent, and condos built for sale.Single family starts built for sale (red) were up 23% in Q1 2021 compared to Q1 2020. This was the strongest first quarter since 2006. Owner built starts (orange) were down 13% year-over-year.Condos built for sale decreased, and are still low.The ‘units built for rent’ (blue) and were down 10% in Q1 2021 compared to Q1 2020. The housing boom has been mostly in single family homes.
New Residential Building Permits: Up 0.3% in April, Annual Revisions Made – The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.760M was up 0.3% from the March reading and is below the Investing.com forecast of 1.770M. Annual revisions were made. Here is the opening of this morning’s monthly report, including a note regarding revisions: Privatelyâ€owned housing units authorized by building permits in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,760,000. This is 0.3 percent (plus/minus 1.2 percent)* above the revised March rate of 1,755,000 and is 60.9 percent (plus/minus 1.8 percent) above the April 2020 rate of 1,094,000. Singleâ€family authorizations in April were at a rate of 1,149,000; this is 3.8 percent (plus/minus 1.0 percent) below the revised March figure of 1,194,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 559,000 in April. [link to report]Here is the complete historical series, which dates from 1960. Because of the extreme volatility of the monthly data points, a 6-month moving average has been included.Here is the data with a simple population adjustment. The Census Bureau’s mid-month population estimates show substantial growth in the US population since 1960. Here is a chart of housing starts as a percent of the population. We’ve added a linear regression through the monthly data to highlight the trend.
AIA: Architecture “Design activity strongly increases” in April – Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Design activity strongly increases: Continuing its meteoric rebound, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) recorded its third consecutive month of positive billings, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA’s ABI score for April rose to 57.9 compared to 55.6 in March (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). Neither score has been achieved since before the Great Recession. During April, new project inquiries and new design contracts reached record highs with scores of 70.8 and 61.7 respectively.”This recent acceleration in the demand for design services demonstrates that both consumers and businesses are feeling much more confident about the economic outlook,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “The pent-up demand for new and retrofitted facilities is keeping architecture firms in all regions and building sectors busy.” …
Regional averages: Midwest (60.6); South (58.3); Northeast (55.0); West (52.4)
Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (59.1); multi-family residential (56.9); institutional (56.7); mixed practice (55.0)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 57.9 in April, up from 55.6 in March. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects’ services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index had been below 50 for eleven consecutive months, but has been solidly positive for the last three months. The eleven months of decline represented a significant decrease in design services, and suggests a decline in CRE investment through most of 2021 (This usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months), however we might see a pickup in CRE investment towards the end of the 2021.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 16% Compared to Same Week in 2019 –Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic. However, occupancy is still down significantly from normal levels. The occupancy rate is down 16.4% compared to the same week in 2019.From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Average Daily Rate Hits New Pandemic High: U.S. weekly hotel occupancy reached its second-highest level since the start of the pandemic, according to STR’s latest data through May 15. May 9-15, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
Occupancy: 59.1% (-16.4%)
Average daily rate (ADR): US$113.54 (-15.4%)
Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$67.05 (-29.2%)
Friday/Saturday occupancy came in higher than any weekend since Valentine’s Day weekend in 2020. Additionally, ADR reached its highest point of the pandemic but was still US$20 less than the corresponding week in 2019.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020). Occupancy is now slightly above the horrible 2009 levels. Note: Y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
Lawler: Is the “Owners’ Equivalent Rent” Index Set to Accelerate Sharply? — From housing economist Tom Lawler: While single-family home prices have recently soared and single-family rents appear to have accelerated, the “Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence” index (OERPR) of the Consumer Price Index has shown no meaningful acceleration. The YOY gain in the OERPR in April was just 2.04%, about the same as in the previous three months. The OERPR index attempts to measure what property owners would receive if they were to rent their home. While the “Rent of primary residence” index mainly (though not solely) reflects rents on multifamily properties, the OERPR index mainly (though not solely) reflects “imputed” rents on single-family homes. There are many issues with how the OERPR in calculated (there is an extensive literature on the subject), and many feel that that it is a lagging indicator of trends. However, it would appear as if (1) the OERPR is understating this measure of housing costs; and (2) the measure is likely to accelerate, probably significantly, during the remainder of the year. The OERPR represents a little over 23% of the overall CPI and a little underx. 14% of the PCE price index. CR Note: This will be something to watch.
West Coast Ports Rush To Clear Record Ship Congestion Before “Peak Season” Arrives — It’s hardly a secret that the recent collapse of trans-pacific supply chains has been among the main reasons for soaring prices, and it’s also hardly a secret that the weakest link in said supply chains are West Coast ports where congestion remains off the charts (as recently discussed in “It’s About To Get Much Worse”: Supply Chains Implode As “Price Doesn’t Even Matter Anymore” and “Port Of LA Volumes Are “Off The Charts“.”) Which is why the first, and most critical step to restoring normalcy in both supply chains – and prices – will come from stabilizing and normalizing shipping congestion and backlog… at some point. And while nobody knows just when this fateful moment will arrive, today Bloomberg writes that ship congestion outside the busiest U.S. gateway for trade with Asia showed glimmers of easing as port officials race to clear a backlog of arriving cargo before peak season begins in about three months. There is some good news: while congestion is still clearly present, it’s getting better – a total of 19 container ships were anchored waiting for entry into Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, as of Sunday, compared with 21 a week earlier, according to Bloomberg data. The bottleneck has persisted since November, peaking around 40 vessels in early February when the loading area looked like a parking lot.But things may get much worse quick as another 18 container carriers are scheduled to arrive over the next three days, with nine of those expected to drop anchor and join the queue.Meanwhile, benefiting from the modest improvement in backlogs, the average wait for berth space was 6.1 days, compared with 6.6 a week ago, according to the L.A. port. That number had peaked around 8 days in April.Last week, the Port of Long Beach said last week volume was the strongest-ever for any April, the 10th consecutive monthly high. It was largely due to imports. Exports haven’t fared as well because shipping companies, charging record-high rates to move goods on transpacific routes, would prefer return containers to Asia empty rather than wait for U.S. exporters’ business.At the neighboring Port of Los Angeles, we noted that the surge in ocean freight containers has pushed the ratio of imports to exports to a record 4.3 to 1, executive director Gene Serokasaid on a webcast last week.
Gasoline Volume Sales Down Almost 16% from All-Time High -The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-March, are now available. Gasoline prices and increases in fuel efficiency are important factors, but there are also some significant demographic and cultural dynamics in this data series. Because the sales data are highly volatile with some obvious seasonality, we’ve added a 12-month moving average (MA) to give a clearer indication of the long-term trends. The latest 12-month MA is 15.9% below its all-time high set in August 2005 and has surpassed its -8.6% low set in August 2014 after the last recession. The next chart includes an overlay of real monthly retail gasoline prices, all grades and formulations, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (the red line). We’ve shortened the timeline to start with EIA price series, which dates from August 1990. The retail prices are updated weekly, so the price series is the more current of the two.As we would expect, the rapid rise in gasoline prices in 2008 was accompanied by a significant drop in sales volume. With the official end of the recession in June 2009, sales reversed direction. As a result of COVID-19 and the resulting recession, both gas prices and sales have dropped rapidly. The moving average for the latest month is 13.5% below the pre-recession level. Clearly, gasoline prices were falling beginning in 2018 and the global pandemic facilitated a further and rapid drop.
Cost of natural gas increases for Columbia Gas customers– The cost of natural gas will be increasing for customers with Columbia Gas. Columbia Gas of Kentucky has received approval from the Kentucky Public Service Commission (PSC) for its most recent Gas Cost Adjustment (GCA). The cost will be $4.9177 per Mcf (1,000 cubic feet), an increase of $0.5049 from the last quarter. This goes into effect June 1. The next scheduled adjustment will be in September. Officials with Columbia Gas of Kentucky say they adjust its gas supply cost quarterly to reflect current market conditions. They must be approved by the PSC. Natural gas distribution companies don’t earn a profit on their gas commodity costs and Columbia Gas of Kentucky passes the cost along to customers without markup.
Empire State Mfg Survey: Continued Growth in May -This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions at 24.3 was a decrease of 2.0 from the previous month’s 26.3. The Investing.com forecast was for a reading of 23.9.The Empire State Manufacturing Index rates the relative level of general business conditions in New York state. A level above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York state.Here is the opening paragraph from the report.Business activity continued to grow at a solid clip in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2021Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at 24.3. New orders and shipments continued to expand strongly, and unfilled orders increased. Delivery times lengthened significantly, and inventories moved somewhat higher. Employment levels grew modestly, and the average workweek increased. Both input prices and selling prices rose at a record-setting pace. Looking ahead, firms remained optimistic that conditions would improve over the next six months, and expected significant increases in employment and prices. [full report] Here is a chart of the current conditions and its 3-month moving average, which helps clarify the trend for this extremely volatile indicator:
Philly Fed Mfg Index: Decline in May, but Remain Elevated – The Philly Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report for the Third Federal Reserve District, covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. While it focuses exclusively on business in this district, this regional survey gives a generally reliable clue as to the direction of the broader Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index.The latest Manufacturing Index came in at 31.5, down 18.7 from last month’s 50.2. The 3-month moving average came in at 42.1, up from 38.7 last month. Since this is a diffusion index, negative readings indicate contraction, positive ones indicate expansion. The Six-Month Outlook came in at 52.7, down 13.9 from the previous month’s 66.6.The 31.5 headline number came in below the 43 forecast at Investing.com.Here is the introduction from the survey:Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow, according to the firms responding to the May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments declined from April’s readings but remained elevated. Additionally, employment increases were less widespread this month, while both price indexes reached long-term highs. Most future indexes moderated this month but continue to indicate that the firms expect growth over the next six months. (Full Report)The first chart below gives us a look at this diffusion index since 2000, which shows us how it has behaved in proximity to the two 21st century recessions. The red dots show the indicator itself, which is quite noisy, a nd the 3-month moving average, which is more useful as an indicator of coincident economic activity. We can see periods of contraction in 2011, 2012, and 2015, and a shallower contraction in 2013. The contraction due to COVID-19 is clear in 2020.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 444,000 –The DOL reported: In the week ending May 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 444,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since March 14, 2020 when it was 256,000. The previous week’s level was revised up by 5,000 from 473,000 to 478,000. The 4-week moving average was 504,750, a decrease of 30,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,250 from 534,000 to 535,250.This does not include the 95,086 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 103,678 the previous week.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 504,750.The previous week was revised up.Regular state continued claims increased to 3,751,000 (SA) from 3,640,000 (SA) the previous week.Note: There are an additional 6,605,416 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 7,284,088 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. And an additional 5,141,311 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,291,528.Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.
US states begin eliminating unemployment aid even as nearly half a million jobless claims were filed last week – The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported Thursday that combined federal and state unemployment claims last week topped 500,000, demonstrating that over a year after the worst public health disaster in a century and steepest economic crisis to hit the working class since the Great Depression, millions of workers continue to struggle to find safe, well-paying and consistent work. For the week ending May 15, according to the report, an estimated 444,000 workers filed for state unemployment, while over 95,000 initial claims were filed under the CARES Act’s Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, designed for so-called “gig” and contract workers. Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt gestures as he speaks during a news conference Monday, May 17, 2021, in Oklahoma City. Oklahoma will end a $300-a-week federal supplemental unemployment benefit next month. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki) The nearly 540,000 combined claims between state and federal programs are over twice the pre-pandemic average of 225,000. Overall, some 15,975,000 jobless claims were filed across all programs, and under any other circumstances, the figures in the report would be considered catastrophic. However, the somewhat stagnant trajectory of new jobless claims is being hailed in the capitalist press as a sign that the economy is “back on track.” On Thursday, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki claimed the jobless numbers were a vindication of the Biden administration’s economic policies and the American Rescue Plan, which halved federal unemployment payments from the $600-a-week under the CARES Act to only $300. In reality, over 8 million jobs have yet to return since March 2020, with last month’s jobs report revealing that roughly 2.7 million workers have been out of work for over a year, representing about 29 percent of all jobless workers. Following April’s job report, which showed only 266,000 new jobs were added, well below Wall Street economists’ hyped “expectations” of 1 million new jobs, a coordinated campaign by businesses and governors alike emerged, demanding an end to all pandemic-related unemployment benefits in order to resume the exploitation of the working class and boost the production of profits. Unconcerned with the health and wellbeing of the majority of the population, Wall Street and their politicians are attempting to blunt demands by workers for safe jobs and increased wages by ending the miserly federal unemployment benefits included in the American Rescue Plan. The $300 federal unemployment supplement is set to expire September 6, however, as of this writing, 22 states have announced they will be terminating the benefit by the end of July, affecting some 3.6 million people. While every state so far that has announced it will be ending the supplement is governed by a Republican, Democrats have signaled they support the ending of benefits as well. Meanwhile, the Biden White House, in its trademark fecklessness, has claimed it can do nothing to prevent Republican governors from denying unemployment benefits to eligible workers.Speaking for a growing number of Democrats and their wealthy backers, Democratic West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin told Politico last week he will “never vote for another extension” of unemployment benefits given the existence of vaccines, of which less than half of the population has received a single dose in the US.
Poll: Plurality of voters say unemployment benefits causing job growth slowdown – More voters think people are not returning to work because they would rather rely on unemployment benefits, than those who think poor working conditions and low wages are the reason, according to a new Hill-HarrisX poll. Those surveyed were asked which statement comes closest to their views: that many are relying on unemployment benefits rather than trying to go back to work; and low wages and poor working conditions are preventing people from looking for work. Forty-four percent of registered voters in the May 14-15 survey said the first statement came closest to their views, compared to 18 percent who said the second statement did. Twenty-seven percent said both statements came closest to their views, and 10 percent said neither did. A majority of Republican voters, 65 percent, cast unemployment benefits as the reason people weren’t returning to work. Many GOP office holders have blamed overly generous benefits for serving as a disincentive to work. The most recent COVID-19 relief bill included a $300 per week federal benefit, though some states led by GOP governors have ended it. Seventy-two percent of voters who backed former President Trump in 2020 said the unemployment benefits were to blame. A plurality of Democrats and people who voted for President Biden said it was both the unemployment benefits and low wages that were keeping workers out of the labor force, at 36 and 37 percent, respectively. Democrats have argued a series of factors, including problems with child care, are contributing to people not returning to work. The debate was turbo-charged by a disappointing jobs report for the month of April.
BLS: April Unemployment rates down in 12 States –From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary: Unemployment rates were lower in April in 12 states and the District of Columbia and stable in 38 states, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Forty-eight states and the District had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and two states had little change. The national unemployment rate, 6.1 percent, was little changed over the month, but was 8.7 percentage points lower than in April 2020.Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 9 states and the District of Columbia, decreased in 2 states, and was essentially unchanged in 39 states in April 2021. Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment increased in all states and the District….Hawaii had the highest unemployment rate in April, 8.5 percent, followed by California, 8.3 percent, and New Mexico and New York, 8.2 percent each. Nebraska, New Hampshire, South Dakota, and Utah had the lowest rates, 2.8 percent each. Hawaii has been impacted by lower levels of tourism.
Silicon Chip Shortage Leads To Potato Chip Shortage: Farmers Halt Equipment Shipments To Dealers -Readers have been briefed on the ongoing semiconductor shortage that may last a “couple of years.” The auto industry has grabbed the spotlight as the hardest-hit industry, with some of the world’s biggest manufacturers restricting production. According to a new report, the worldwide chip shortage is impacting the agriculture industry that may last for a couple of years and has already impacted the price of potato chips.Hoosier Ag Today reports, “The biggest factor impacting the ability of US farmers to produce the food we need has nothing to do with the weather, the markets, trade, regulations, or disease. The worldwide shortage of computer chips will impact all aspects of agriculture for the next two years and beyond… farm equipment manufacturers have halted shipments to dealers because they don’t have the chips to put in the equipment… not only have combine, planter, tillage, and tractor sales been impacted, but even ATV supplies are limited. Parts, even non-electric parts, are also in short supply because the manufacturers of those parts use the chips in the manufacturing process. As farmers integrate technology into all aspects of the farming process, these highly sophisticated semiconductors have become the backbone of almost every farming operation.” Rabobank’s Global Economics & Markets desk commented on the Hoosier Ag Today report and cautioned on the“technological wonders of a global economy based on just-in-time supplies of a few key inputs from only a few locations; and then demand surged due a virus that ran rampant through said global economy; and supply chains got snarled for that, and other reasons; and now a lack of silicon chips even impacts on the price of potato chips (in the US) and chips (in the UK).” The shortage has caused Reynolds Farm Equipment, one of Indiana’s largest John Deere dealers, to inform customers that order times are unknown at the moment because production for specific equipment has been disrupted because of the lack of chips.
Texas bans abortions under “heartbeat” bill, executes man on same day – Texas Governor Gregg Abbott signed a reactionary “heartbeat” abortion ban into law on Wednesday de-facto banning abortions, on the very same day that Quintin Jones was executed following a rejection by the Texas parole board to spare his life and Abbott’s decision to ignore Jones’s plea for clemency. The Republican governor’s actions mark a definite escalation of the assault on democratic rights in the United States. Jones was convicted in 2001 for the murder of his great-aunt, Berthena Bryant. Bryant’s sole surviving sibling forgave Jones in a clemency petition, and both she and Jones’s twin brother asked the governor and the state pardons board to commute his sentence. Abbott and the pardons board ignored these appeals. Notably, media were not allowed to witness the execution, the first time reporters have not been present at a Texas execution in over 40 years. The Texas Department of Criminal Justice later apologized, claiming that it was an error and the result of miscommunication. Serious questions as to whether Jones had an intellectual disability that exempted him from the death penalty were raised in legal filings by Jones’s lawyers, who argued that the psychologist testifying for the state was using a discredited psychopathy checklist. A Texas A&M professor speaking to the Texas Tribune called the checklist “unreliable, unscientific, and misleading in capital cases because [it] cannot reliably predict behavior in prison.” The draconian anti-abortion bill approved by Abbott has no exceptions for instances of rape or incest, instead claiming that “public and private agencies provide…emergency contraception for victims of rape or incest.” Justifying this, the bill’s sponsor, Republican Senator Bryan Hughes, stated cynically, “Let’s harshly punish the rapist, but we don’t, we don’t punish the unborn child.” That is, if someone gets raped in Texas, she will be forced to have the rapist’s child under threat of the state. The state government has overseen the deaths of more than 50,000 Texans from COVID-19, and has now executed a person on the same day as it enacted the anti-abortion law. The government has no moral standing whatsoever to be claiming to care about the lives of anyone.
Stores drop masks for fully vaccinated after CDC says no masks indoors – Retailers started announcing changes to face mask policies for fully vaccinated customers a day after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued new masking guidelines. Trader Joe’s, Walmart, Sam’s Club, Costco and Publix were among the first to confirm updates to mask requirements, leading the way for mask-free shopping, though customers who live in areas that have state or local mask requirements may still have to wear them – regardless of vaccination status. In some cases, vaccinated store employees can also go to work without a mask.Many retailers, including Apple and Walgreens, say they are still evaluating the CDC guidance but say they could update policies.Target announced Monday that it would no longer require vaccinated customers and employees to wear masks, effective immediately, except where required by local or state mandate. CVS also announced masks would not be required for vaccinated customers. Starbucks updated its policy to make masks “optional for vaccinated customers beginning Monday, May 17, unless local regulations require them by law.”So far, businesses have said proof of the vaccine won’t need to be shown and will be on the honor system. Publix’s mask update started Saturday and is for fully vaccinated shoppers and workers.
US educators and autoworkers denounce changes to CDC mask guidelines – Last week, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) changed its health and safety guidelines to allow vaccinated individuals to stop wearing masks or practice social distancing indoors. On the same day, American Federation of Teachers (AFT) President Randi Weingarten called for the full reopening of all US schools in the fall. Sean Glass, a bartender at The Smiling Moose Bar/Restaurant, shows his COVID-19 protective covering he has at the ready Friday, May 14, 2021, in Pittsburgh’s South Side neighborhood. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic) However, the pandemic is far from over and these moves are entirely premature. With only 37 percent of the US population vaccinated, the CDC’s loosening of its mask guidelines will undoubtedly lead to unnecessary infections and deaths. Daily new cases in the US alone remain at over 30,000 infections, itself a gross underestimation. Across the globe, more dangerous variants of the coronavirus are rapidly spreading in countries such as India and Brazil, affecting people of all age groups. Significantly, doctors treating patients in India and Singapore have noted that the new B.1.617 and B.1.617.2 variants have caused cases among children to be more frequent and more severe. In the face of these alarming developments, the World Socialist Web Site continues to call for the immediate closure of all schools and nonessential workplaces and the continued use of masks outside people’s homes, while the population is safely vaccinated. It is imperative that the working class follow the latest scientific developments regarding the pandemic in order to combat the deadly pseudoscience that the ruling class is peddling to force open the economy. The anti-scientific and politically motivated move by the CDC has received significant opposition from leading epidemiologists and within the working class. The WSWS spoke with educators and autoworkers on these developments and the role of the unions in pushing for a full reopening of schools and workplaces. A supporter of the rank-and-file committee at the Faurecia Gladstone plant in Columbus, Indiana said, “It is too soon to remove the mask requirement. If you go by the actual statistics, there are still too many people getting COVID-19. They have a lot of ads out that are giving kudos to people who are getting the shot, but overall they are misdirecting the public. “With the CDC lifting restrictions, that’s giving people a false sense of security that the pandemic is under control when in reality it’s not. This is motivated by the capitalists. I am just so angry about it because none of them are putting their lives on the line every day the way we are. I saw the assistant plant manager today for the first time in a week. He was out for a couple of weeks with COVID-19, but he never told anybody. “They have been concealing infections from day one. They are still covering them up. And the union is in with them. We found out today that the South Plant in Columbus and the Fort Wayne plant were both getting hazard pay during the pandemic, but the Gladstone plant did not. You would have thought that the union would be right on top of that, but all they say when you ask them about it is ‘we’ll have to check into that.’ It’s a cover-up.” The Faurecia worker concluded, “It’s not only a matter of the spread of the virus. We are fighting a murderous regime of working people to death.”
Disabled students failed by virtual learning – 9-year-old Maki climbed onto a trampoline behind his Northern Virginia home and began screaming like he had been shot.He was crouched in a squat, face rigid with fear. He yelled at his mother to take away the gigantic reptile about to wrap itself around his neck. She tried to tell him there was no snake. Maki was suffering a breakdown in his ability to perceive reality. More than a dozen doctors and child psychiatrists later told his parents that they believed the months Maki spent learning at home last spring, away from daily school rituals and other children, contributed to his stunning deterioration. They said it was vital that he return to in-person school, full-time if possible. Maki, whose parents asked that his last name not be revealed to protect his privacy, was briefly hospitalized, then finally he went back into a classroom in November for several days a week. But for months, he was alone with a monitor, using an iPad to follow his teacher’s remote instruction. More than a year after the pandemic began, officials in school districts across the country concede they failed during the crisis to deliver the quality of education that students with disabilities are legally entitled to receive. The consequences of this failure are likely to linger for years, if not decades, advocates and experts warn. More than 7 million students are eligible for special educational services under the federal Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA). These children, each of whom follow an individualized education program that spells out what extra or different services they need at school, account for an estimated 14 percent of all U.S. schoolchildren. While some thrived while learning from home during the pandemic – including a boy whose wheelchair left him feeling out of place at school but who became indistinguishable from his classmates on Zoom – most did not, and advocates and educators say many have suffered significant developmental setbacks. The pandemic forced schools and districts to acknowledge ways they have long struggled to meet the needs of their most vulnerable students. It spurred school officials in some places to get creative in reaching students stuck at home, leading to the development of technology, tactics and techniques that will probably outlive the pandemic.
CDC clarifies mask guidance for schools – The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is recommending the continued use of masks and social distancing in schools after issuing new guidance last week that stated vaccinated people do not need to wear masks. On Saturday, the CDC released an Operational Strategy for K-12 schools in which it pointed to data that suggest schools that abide by mask mandates and social-distancing requirements have been able to safely remain open. In the post clarifying mask guidance for schools, the CDC argued that schools need to make efforts to remain open as a way to combat “systemic health and social inequities” among students of color. “The absence of in-person educational options might disadvantage children from all backgrounds, particularly children in low-resourced communities who might be at an educational disadvantage,” the CDC said. “These students might be less likely to have access to technology to facilitate virtual learning and more likely to rely on key school-supported resources such as school meal programs, special education and related services, counseling, and after-school programs.” Children aged 12 to 15 years old were recently made eligible to receive the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine. However, the CDC points out that full immunity is not achieved until two weeks after the last vaccine dose is administered and there is not enough time for eligible students to achieve full immunity before the school year ends. The agency also said schools will likely need some time to adjust the policies they have put up in the past year in response to the pandemic. “Systems and policy adjustments may be required for schools to change mask requirements for students and staff while continuing to ensure the safety of unvaccinated populations,” the CDC wrote. Last week, the CDC issued new guidance that stated fully vaccinated people could go maskless both outdoors and indoors. “Anyone who is fully vaccinated, can participate in indoor and outdoor activities, large or small, without wearing a mask or physical distancing,” Rochelle Walensky, director for the CDC, said during a briefing. “”If you are fully vaccinated, you can start doing the things that you had stopped doing because of the pandemic. We have all longed for this moment, when we can get back to some sense of normalcy.”
Schools face new pressures to reopen for in-person learning – Schools across the country are facing new pressure to open for in-person learning this fall given the authorization of a vaccine for children ages 12 to 15 and new federal guidance that vaccinated people do not need to wear face masks indoors or outdoors. Education Secretary Miguel Cardona in an interview with The Hill reiterated that he expects all schools to fully reopen in the fall and said the vaccine and mask guidance updates this week will likely adjust how schools plan for the next school year. “I’m hopeful that with another month under our belt and continued lowered transmission rates, whatever fears some may have about fall are going to dissipate, and we’re going to be able to return to school every day, all day for all children,” Cardona said. At the same time, he sought to ease any political pressure on schools, saying whether to open and how to open shouldn’t become a political battle. “I do believe that this isn’t a partisan issue,” Cardona said. “It’s a student issue. We need to get our students in school as quickly as possible. But I also know that we can’t compromise safety to do that. ” Questions over when and how to reopen schools have been a politically divisive issue for months, as Republicans have criticized President Biden’s administration for moving too slowly on reopening schools. The Education Department has not issued new guidance to schools at this point, but on Saturday the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended the continued use of masks and social distancing in schools The Pfizer-BioNTech authorization was granted for most high school-aged students after the administration said it achieved getting a majority of K-8 schools fully reopened by Biden’s 100th day in office. Cardona said the administration needs to “aim higher” beyond the original goal and give high schoolers the same opportunity to return. More officials have joined in the appeals to reopen for the upcoming school year in recent days, including Biden’s chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci, who said Thursday that school should be open “full blast” by the fall. Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) – the second largest teachers union in the U.S. – announced her support Thursday as well as a $5 million campaign to get educators to meet with parents about returning strategies and safety precautions. She told The Hill that vaccines became the “real game changer” in the effort to get children back in schools, saying it’s ramped up in the last few weeks amid a downturn in cases and emerging data on the vaccines’ effectiveness. “As a result, we felt that it was time to be unequivocal and unambiguous about reopening schools full time, and having the resources to recover and to reimagine,” she said.
Teacher berates vaccinated student for not wearing mask: video –A Wisconsin high school teacher was caught on camera berating a vaccinated student for not wearing a face mask – calling the teen a “jerk” in the foul rant. “I don’t care if you’re vaccinated, you little dink!” the teacher in the Poynette school district tells the student in the video. “I don’t want to get sick and die! There’s other people you can infect just because you’re vaccinated. You know what? You’re not a special person around here,” she continues as the student sits with his back against a wall. “You should hear about how everyone talks about you around here. You’re a jerk! You’re a jerk and you need to have respect for other people in your life. You’re not a big man on campus – quit walking around here like you have a stick up your butt,” the unidentified woman adds. Talk radio host Vicki McKenna posted the viral video, which she said she obtained from TikTok and edited to protect the teen’s identity, according to the Portage Daily Register. She also declined to say who had posted the TikTok video. Meanwhile, district Administrator Matt Shappell said the teacher had been placed on administrative leave “pending the outcome of the investigation.”
Students should be allowed to buy cars with financial aid – As lawmakers sharpen their attention on infrastructure, much of the conversation focuses on reducing reliance on cars. But what about people with no choice? Today, 99 percent of community college students commute to campus – and a sizable number of community collegesaren’t accessible by public transportation. The Biden administration is calling for bold investments in community and technical colleges. Recent proposals include a $62 billion grants fund to support proven strategies for student success, $12 billion for campus improvements and $109 billion for two years of free community college tuition. Community and technical colleges educate 36 percent of college students – for the students who can get there. To be fully successful, the administration’s community college agenda must include automobile access and affordability.The proposed Biden free community college plan covers two years of community college tuition, enabling students to use federal grant aid and federal loans to cover living expenses. When a college is not accessible by public transit – which is the status quo at 37 percent of community and technical colleges – students should be able to use federal financial aid for a car purchase. This seems intuitive, but actually it is illegal. The good news is that the Biden administration can take meaningful steps toward ensuring community college students can get to campus – without congressional engagement. Currently, higher education institutions are prohibited from including the cost of purchasing a vehicle in their cost of attendance (COA). This figure is a college’s “all in” sticker price, and one of the most critical aspects of a student’s college financial aid package. The Department of Education (ED) has the authority to allow car purchase as part of students’ COA. The ED can establish a “car” as an allowable COA category for students at commuter schools. Another option would be to grant schools permission to use professional judgement to adjust COA to allow a student to purchase a vehicle. For a student at any given institution, that school’s COA is a critical number, as it also represents the top limit for the grant and scholarship aid a student can accept to attend a school and the limit for how much a student can borrow from the federal government to support their education. Community college presidents often observe that their students are “one flat tire away from dropping out.” With food and housing insecurity among community college students now in the double digits, few students have cash available to deal with that flat tire.
Hospitals Serving The Poor Struggled During COVID. Wealthy Hospitals Made Millions – Los Angeles County-USC Medical Center is what’s known as a safety-net hospital – one of the largest in the country. And that makes the reality inside a daily financial struggle to care for every patient who walks through its doors. Patients other hospitals often try to avoid.One recent week brought a man who said he came to the hospital to “sleep and eat,” a man with dementia that staff couldn’t identify, and a woman found on the street covered in feces after walking out of a skilled nursing facility. Patients who can only pay a little. Patients who can’t pay at all. Patients with difficult problems.Few of these patients, if any, have private insurance. And because the hospital must also find a place for many of them to go when their health improves, doctors say some patients have stayed as long as three years.This past year the nation’s more than 300 safety-net hospitals found themselves on the front lines of the coronavirus pandemic, which disproportionately affected the communities that safety-net hospitals are most likely to serve. They took on a greater share of the patient burden, even as other hospitals emerged from the pandemic with huge profits, an investigation by NPR and FRONTLINE has found, further widening the gap between wealthy hospitals and hospitals like LAC-USC.”Our costs went way up and revenue went down,” says Brad Spellberg, chief medical officer at LAC-USC. “Unlike a private hospital, we don’t make money from our [operating rooms]. Medicaid and Medicare do not reimburse at a level where if you say, if we do more things, I’m going to make more money.”Safety-net hospitals are funded in large part by taxpayers: In this case, LA county taxpayers, state taxpayers in California, and federal taxpayers, which pay for Medicaid and Medicare.But that tax money doesn’t pay hospitals nearly as much as private insurance does.It’s just simple math. A decade and a half ago, private insurance paid about $1.50 for every $1 Medicare paid – for the same hospital services, according to a study by the medical journal Health Affairs. Medicaid paid even less. By 2018, studies showed private insurance was paying almost $2.50 for every $1 Medicare paid for services. And researchers say that every time the government does shell out a dollar, it’s underpaying for what the services actually cost. The $2.50, on the other hand, is covering things quite well.The result is that over the past 20 years, for-profit and even some nonprofit hospitals have leveraged the $2.50 into some of the largest profits and revenue the industry has ever seen. Many safety-net hospitals have wound up in the red or are barely making ends meet.
Watch: Communist Professor Declares That US Was Defeated In “Biological War” With China – A professor with close ties to the Communist Chinese Government has declared that his country ‘defeated’ the U.S. in 2020, winning a biological war, and putting America ‘back in it’s place’. The comments were made by Chen Ping, a Senior Researcher at The China Institute of Fudan University, a CCP affiliated think tank, and a professor at Peking University.The video, which appeared online recently, was translated by New York-based Chinese blogger Jennifer Zeng:Zeng writes that the researcher claims “the Western model has failed, the 500-year maritime civilization is doomed, the CCP has won and ‘will lead the way of the modernization in the new era after the biology revolution’ after the 2020 CCPVirus (COVID19) pandemic.”Ping states in the video that “In 2020, China won the trade war, science and technology war, and especially the biological war.””The achievement is unprecedented. This is an epoch-making historical record,” he continues, adding “So for the liberal, America-worshiping cult within China, their worship of the U.S. is actually unfounded.””After this trade war and biological warfare, the U.S. was beaten back to its original shape,” Ping emphasised.
Opposition erupts in Japan against the Tokyo Olympics – It has been over a year since Japan proclaimed its first one-month state of emergency back in April 2020. There have been many outbreaks throughout this year as a direct result of the non-existent COVID-19 mitigation measures by the government of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his successor Yoshihide Suga. For the entire year of the global pandemic, the Abe and Suga governments focused on downplaying the pandemic, doing everything in their power to ensure the Summer Tokyo Olympics will be held this year in July. This includes covering up the realities in the country’s hospitals. There have been sharp increases in infections in the city of Osaka with a record of 1,262 cases in a single day. Osaka is in a healthcare crisis, with hospitals running over capacity with more than 17,000 COVID patients waiting at home to access care. There are increasing numbers of patients having to wait several hours in an ambulance before they can be admitted into a hospital. The longest wait reported was two whole days. Despite minimal testing, 12,002,383 people have tested positive (around a tenth of the total population) with a positivity rate of 7 percent. Japan’s official cumulative number of deaths from COVID-19 is 11,200 and the number of confirmed cases is at 659,987. However, there is every reason to believe these figures are seriously under reported. Hospital beds are in short supply nationally and the number of COVID-19 patients recuperating at home topped 28,823 as of May 5. Yet Japan still plans to proceed with the Tokyo Summer Olympic Games. Last month, the Tokyo Olympics Organizers requested the Japanese Nursing Association to dispatch 500 nurses as medical staff to assist the Games. This sparked immediate mass opposition among nurses. An online demonstration was initiated with the hashtag #看è·å¸«ã®äº”輪派é£ã¯å›°ã‚Šã¾ã™ (meaning “Dispatching nurses to the Olympics games cannot be done”) with more than 250,000 tweets over the course of four days. Tweets included: “We are desperately saving patients and assisting the Olympics Games is out of question”; “If a dispatch is possible they should be dispatched to hospitals”; and “Healthcare should be prioritized over the Olympic Games.” One declared: “This is an emergency, a life-or-death situation. We don’t have enough instructors and we cannot educate newly hired nurses. If we want to prevent nurses from leaving their job, better treatment for the nurses and publicly funded mass PCR tests will be needed.” A physician tweeted: “The first requirement in a hospital is that it should do the sick no harm. The current government is only doing harm to the people”. Another tweet declared: “I am a nurse. When the pandemic started, I was working in the ward and I was terrified not only for myself but also for my family for the risk of exposing them … I would work for hours and hours wearing a protective suit, lightheaded from the heat. Whenever there was an outbreak in the hospital, I would be terrified thinking I could be next and that I could lose my life. I would be full of regret and sorrow for all the patients who passed away. With all my feelings of fear and sorrow, I am doing my best to withstand them. And this is not for the Olympics. Under this situation, there is no way I can support the Olympics. It has been over a year. But it is not ending yet and I do not see the end … What is it that this country is trying to protect? Please choose to protect lives.”
Europe Finally Opens Doors To Vaccinated Tourists As Denmark Leads Reopening Push – Across the EU, borders are reopening to tourists from the US, UK and antipodes as a group of diplomats meeting in Brussels officially signed off on the plan. The European Commission, the unelected committee of bureaucrats that handles most of the bloc’s executive policymaking, first got the word out back in April that tourists in wealthy countries who could prove their vaccination status could start booking European vacations again.According to the AFP, the recommendations will be officially adopted by EU ministers on May 21. Until then, non-essential travel to the 27-member bloc will be banned, as it has been since last spring, when the pandemic first emerged from Wuhan.The Commission has agreed to raft a list of approved vaccination certificates, and EU officials will also discuss on Thursday a “white list” of non-EU countries deemed to present a low risk of spreading the disease. The list will be updated based on the epidemiological situation and requires reassessments based on the infection rate every two weeks.Over the past week, more EU members have started to reopen, stoking hope in the European “miracle recovery” narrativethat is helping to sustain many equity bulls in the face of growing skepticism about the Fed’s assistance that price pressures will be “transitory”. Just yesterday, Denmark announced that it would be the first in the bloc to more or less fully reopen, with everything except nightclubs being allowed to reopen at full capacity as soon as Friday. At that time, it will phase out the use of a domestic vaccination passport. It plans to drop use of facemasks over the summer, according to the FT.Health minister Magnus Heunicke said Denmark was “in a very favourable place” in the pandemic despite a small rise in recent Covid-19 cases, and that its mass testing capabilities and the possibility of local lockdowns enabled it to push ahead with more reopening.
Denmark Begins Exhuming Buried Mink — Denmark has begun to dig up millions of mink that were culled and buried to stop the spread of a coronavirusmutation.The country culled its entire population of around 17 million mink in November of 2020 after COVID-19 outbreaks erupted on several mink farms and mutations were found in people living nearby, as Reuters reported. While most of the mink were incinerated, around four million were buried in western Denmark, and now there are concerns they could contaminate drinking water and a nearby lake.”Once the mink are no longer contaminated with Covid-19, they will be transported to an incineration facility, where they’ll be burned as commercial waste,” the ministry of food and agriculture announced in December of last year of the decision to exhume the mink, as BBC News reported at the time.The story of Denmark’s mink has been troubled from the start, as VICE explained.First, it was revealed that the decision to cull the mink in the first place was illegal, forcing Minister of Agriculture Mogens Jensen to resign.Then, the mink that were buried were not buried deeply enough. This meant that some of the mink began to rise out of the grave like zombies, as some observers described it.”As the bodies decay, gases can be formed,” national police spokesman Thomas Kristensen explained to the state broadcaster DR in late November, as The Guardian reported. “This causes the whole thing to expand a little. In this way, in the worst cases, the mink get pushed out of the ground.”Further, the Danish Environmental Protection Agency calculated that the buried mink would pollute nearby groundwater in two to three years, according to VICE.”The disposal of the minks did not go optimally,” Minister of Food, Agriculture, and Fisheries Rasmus Prehn told the daily German newspaper Tagesschau, as VICE reported. “Ideally, they would have been incinerated straight away, but we had capacity issues and chose the disposal option instead.”The Danish parliament gave permission for the mink to be dug up in December of last year, but they have waited until May to begin, since that is when officials estimated the risk of coronavirus contamination from the corpses would have passed, as BBC News reported at the time. It’s Time to Kick Gas – Bill McKibben — We’re used to the idea that CO2 – one carbon atom, two oxygen atoms – is a dangerous molecule. Indeed, driving down carbon-dioxide emissions has become the way that many leaders and journalists describe our task. But CH4 – one carbon atom combined with four hydrogen atoms, otherwise known as methane – is carbon dioxide’s evil twin. It traps heat roughly eighty times more efficiently than carbon dioxide does, which explains why the fact that it’s spiking in the atmosphere scares scientists so much. Despite the pandemic lockdown, 2020 saw the largest single increase in methane in the atmosphere since we started taking measurements, in the nineteen-eighties. It’s a jump that, last month, a scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration called “fairly surprising and disturbing.”
ECB Warns Of “Elevated” Financial Stability Risks Amid “Remarkable Exuberance” -In what some have dubbed a repeat of Greenspan’s “irrational exuberance” description of the dot-com bubble in the 1990s, this morning the ECB warned in its Financial Stability Review (in which it used the word “exuberance” at least 8 times), that the euro-area faces “elevated” risks to financial stability as it emerges from the pandemic with high debt burdens and “remarkable exuberance” in markets as bond yields rose. The stark warning, first reported by Bloomberg, sent risk asset reeling and cryptocurrencies tumbling and highlights mounting concerns that the flood of fiscal and monetary stimulus needed to fight the crisis is also building up dangerous imbalances.If more upward surprises in U.S. inflation prompts investors bet on earlier monetary tightening, driving up bond yields without an accompanying improvement in economic growth, “spillovers from U.S. equity market repricing could be substantial,” theECB said.”A 10% correction in U.S. equity markets could therefore lead to a significant tightening of euro-area financial conditions, similar to around a third of the tightening witnessed after the coronavirus shock in March 2020,” the ECB warned said lamenting the trillions in debt added in response to the covid pandemic.The euro zone is vulnerable to such spillovers because, like most countries, it has built up significantly higher debt during the crisis. Rising yields would depress bond prices and weaken balance sheets at the region’s banks — which have long suffered from feeble profitability. The ECB also said the uneven economic impact of the pandemic means financial stability risks are likely to materialize in sectors and countries with higher pre-existing vulnerabilities. The table below summarizes some of the key risks the ECB sees for financial stability.
Indifferent to the spread of the virus, Macron proceeds with reopening in France – The French government is moving forward with its plans to almost completely end coronavirus restrictions by June 30. It is in acting in response to pressure from financial and business circles to fully resume economic activity to guarantee the continued accumulation of profits amidst a continuing spread of the deadly virus. This reopening is also part of a fierce competition between European countries over creating the most business-friendly environment in the shortest time, ensuring they can profit from the summer tourist season. French President Emmanuel Macron delivers his speech on the Future of Europe and to and to mark Europe Day, at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, eastern France, Sunday, May 9, 2021. (AP Photo/Jean-Francois Badias, Pool) Across Europe, the same policy is underway. At the end of April, bars and restaurants began reopening for outdoor service in Italy, along with cinemas, concert halls and theatres. Tourists from across Europe can now also travel to the country as of the middle of this month. The six-month state of emergency in Spain ended on May 9. In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is proceeding with plans announced in April to end lockdown measures completely by June 21. In France, as was the case for Macron’s reopening of primary and secondary schools after a short break on April 6 and May 3, the next steps in the reopening of May 19, June 9 and June 30 are fixed and will proceed regardless of the development of the pandemic. On May 19, the nightly curfew will be moved from 7:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m., nonessential shops will reopen, and cafes and restaurants will resume outdoor dining. Museums, cinemas, theatres and public monuments will also reopen. Physical activities, both indoor and outdoor, will be allowed again, except for contact sports. On June 9, the curfew will be pushed back to 11:00 p.m. Restaurants will reopen completely. Contact sports will resume outdoors. Large events (such as trade fairs) will be allowed again, and the recourse to online working from home will be restricted. After June 30, only nightclubs will remain closed, and only the compulsory wearing of masks and some other social distancing protocols will remain.
Spain sends troops to border after thousands of migrants swim into Ceuta from Morocco A sudden influx of migrants swimming into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta in northern Africa is a serious crisis for Europe, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said on Tuesday, vowing to re-establish order promptly amid heightened diplomatic tensions with Morocco. Spain deployed troops to Ceuta to patrol the border with Morocco after around 8,000 migrants, many from Sub-Saharan Africa and including some 1,500 minors, entered the enclave on Monday and Tuesday by swimming in or climbing over the fence. Armoured vehicles were guarding Ceuta’s beach on Tuesday, and soldiers and police used batons to clear migrants from the beach and threw smoke bombs to discourage others from crossing. A Reuters reporter on the ground said the number of arrivals by sea had slowed, and some migrants were voluntarily returning to Morocco. A few others could be seen being carried away by soldiers, but dozens still waded in the water towards Ceuta. One associate at the Emergent BioSolutions plant documented just one shower in 19 days of work, the FDA’s report said. Spain said around 4,000 migrants had already been sent back to Morocco, under a readmission deal. The regional leader of Ceuta criticised what he described as Morocco’s passivity in the face of Monday’s surge, and some independent experts said Rabat had initially allowed it as a means of pressuring Madrid over its decision to admit a rebel leader from the Western Sahara to a Spanish hospital. The Spanish government did not make that connection, with Sanchez calling the north African nation a friend of Spain and the interior ministry citing cooperation over the readmissions, although Foreign Minister Arancha Gonzalez Laya told Morocco’s ambassador Spain rejected and disapproved of the mass arrivals.
Teachers’ union supports return to regular operations at schools and nurseries in Germany – In recent weeks, several federal states have already reopened schools and nurseries on a larger scale. Now, in connection with the general offensive to open up the economy, the complete return to regular operations is being prepared. In Germany’s most populous federal state North Rhine-Westphalia, schools are to switch to fully in-person teaching from May 31. In Schleswig-Holstein, all grades are again being taught face-to-face in almost all districts and towns in the state as of this week. In Bavaria, according to state Premier President Markus Soder (Christian Social Union, CSU), the “vast majority of pupils” should be back at school after the Whitsun holidays. The same goal is being pursued by the state government in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania led by state Premier Manuela Schwesig (Social Democratic Party, SPD). In all other federal states, including Thuringia, which is led by the Left Party, school and nursery reopenings are also being pushed forward. The fact that the federal and state governments are taking this step despite the still high incidence of infections, thus endangering the health and lives of millions of children, parents and educators, has exclusively economic reasons. Beyond seemingly endless demagogic reports about the psychological suffering, the endangerment of children’s well-being in the lockdown and studies about supposedly “safe schools” in the pandemic, the decision-makers are primarily concerned with freeing up parents to work. Like last year, the Education and Science Union (GEW) is playing a key role in pushing through the “profits before lives” policy in the face of enormous resistance among students, educators and parents. On Thursday, GEW national chair Marlis Tepe told the ZDF morning show, “We are in favour of opening schools as quickly as possible, depending on the incidence level.” Within a “range of 50 to 100” per 100,000, the GEW pleads “to stay with alternating teaching methods. If it then goes down, then you can go to face-to-face teaching.” Tepe had already backed the move to in-person teaching with the slogan, “Whoever opens, must vaccinate.” The early vaccination of all teachers meant “the health protection of teachers, pupils and their parents could be secured,” she claimed.
Germany to Ban Most Travel from U.K. Over Covid Variant Concerns – The New York Times – Germany is banning most travel from Britain starting on Sunday amid concerns about the spread of a coronavirus variant first discovered in India, the German authorities said on Friday.German citizens and residents of Germany will still be allowed to enter the country from Britain but will be required to self-isolate for two weeks upon arrival, Germany’s public health institution said as it classified Britain as an area of concern because of the variant.The move came just days after Britain reopened its museums and cinemas and resumed allowing indoor service in pubs and restaurants. Many people in Britain have been looking forward to traveling abroad in the coming months, and Spain is set to welcome visitors arriving from Britain without a coronavirus test starting on Monday. The spread in Britain of the variant first detected in India, known as B.1.617, could serve as an early warning for other European countries that have relaxed restrictions. This month, the World Health Organization declared the mutation a “variant of concern,” and although scientists’ knowledge about it remains limited, it is believed to be more transmissible than the virus’s initial form.Brazil, India and South Africa are among the dozen or so other countries that Germany considers areas of concern because of variants. As of Thursday, Britain had 3,424 cases of the variant first discovered in India, according to government data, up from 1,313 cases the previous week.Dozens of nations, including European countries and the United States, suspended travel from Britain or imposed strict restrictions earlier in the pandemic amid concerns about the spread of a variant first detected in England.Britain’s Office for National Statistics said on Friday that the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus in England had showed “early signs of a potential increase” in the week ending May 15, although it said rates remained low compared with earlier this year. At its peak in late December, Britain recorded more than active 81,000 cases, compared with about 2,000 this month. The country’s inoculation campaign is continuing apace, with an increased focus on second doses in an effort to thwart the sort of spikes that led to restrictions imposed earlier this year. More than 37 million people have received a first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine in Britain – 56 percent of the population. Yet most people under 30 have yet to receive a dose, and less than a third of the population has been fully vaccinated. Health Minister Matt Hancock said on Saturday that people over 32 could now book an appointment.Prime Minister Boris Johnson has vowed to proceed with a plan to lift all restrictions by June 21, although scientists have warned that the spread of the B.1.617 variant could delay such plans. Most cases of the variant have been found in northwestern England, with some in London.In Germany, the restrictions on travel from Britain come as outdoor service resumed on Friday in cafes, restaurants and beer gardens after months of closure. Chancellor Angela Merkel urged people to “treat these opportunities very responsibly.””The virus,” she said, “has not disappeared.”
Anger mounts at UK government proposal to halve arts education subsidy –More than 160,000 in Britain have signed a petition against proposed cuts to funding of arts subjects. There has been widespread anger at the Conservative government’s call to halve its subsidy support for “courses that are not among its strategic priorities – covering subjects in music, dance, drama and performing arts; art and design; media studies; and archaeology.” This is deepening of the wholesale attack on arts education and cultural provision, that will deny larger sections of working class youth access to the field. The government is proposing a cut to the student subsidy support available from the Office for Students (OfS). Part of the Pound Sterling1.47 billion teaching budget, this helps institutions to fund teaching in high-cost subjects on top of tuition fees. The proposal would cut the subsidy for an individual student in the affected courses from Pound Sterling243 to Pound Sterling121.50. The government launched an OfS “consultation” on the proposal. The OfS made clear the nature of this consultation, stating that it was “not consulting on the total amount of funding available for distribution,” as this is predetermined by the government’s grant. The consultation only “seeks views” on “a statutory guidance letter … which sets out the funds available … and the related funding policies and priorities that [the government] wishes us to implement.” The exercise was to channel anger at the cuts in order to then implement the government’s proposals. These were laid out clearly in the statutory guidance letter, which proposed an increase to high-cost subject funding “for subjects identified as supporting the NHS [National Health Service] and wider healthcare policy, high-cost science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) subjects and/or specific labour market needs.” This would be offset by “A reduction by half to high-cost subject funding for other price group C1 subjects – that is, for courses in performing and creative arts, media studies and archaeology.” The OfS sought to downplay the impact of the cuts, telling the Guardian that they “relate to a small fraction of how these courses are funded, equating to a reduction of … 1 percent of overall funding.” The spokesperson insisted again that the OfS “has a fixed funding budget that is set by government,” while pointing to a government commitment to deepen these cuts. The “difficult decisions about how to prioritise our increasingly constrained budget” were based on the understanding that it “will have to stretch further in the coming years.” This was laid out by Education Secretary Gavin Williamson in his statutory guidance letter, where he wrote, “The OfS should reprioritise funding towards the provision of high-cost, high-value subjects … We would then potentially seek further reductions in future years.
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