Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666
The news posted last week for the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some important articles are summarized here. The articles are more or less organized with general virus news and anecdotes first, then stories from around the US, followed by an increased number of items from other countries around the globe. Economic news related to COVID-19 is found here.
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Summary:
Major coronavirus metrics continue to head lower in the US, and now also globally. New cases in the US during the week ending May 8th were down 18.6% from new cases during the week ending May 1st, and are now down 83.3% from the January peak; this week also saw fewer new cases than any week since September. This week’s US deaths attributed to Covid were 6.8% lower than the prior week’s, and down 80.5% from the January high; US Covid deaths are now at the lowest rate since the second week of July.
New cases globally during this past week were down 4.7% from the prior week (and down 5.2% from the peak of 2 weeks ago), while global Covid deaths worldwide were 4.3% lower than the prior week, at which time they had peaked; Covid deaths were still 1% higher than two weeks ago. India now accounts for slightly more than half of all new cases; if we remove India’s 6% increase in new cases from the global totals, new cases elsewhere are down 13.2% from a week ago.
Earlier this week I stumbled on to the CDC page which lists the primary Covid mutants infecting the various states and regions of the US; it is replete with table and graphics, so if you’re at all interested you should take a look. As of April 10th, B.1.1.7, the Kent, UK strain, had already accounted for 60% of all US infections, with that strain having the largest penetration in the Great Lakes states, which you might recall were among those states leading a modest surge in new cases at the time. At the same time, B 1.526, known in the media as the New York strain, was accounting for 22.6% of the cases in southern New England, the other area of the country involved in that early Spring surge. Meanwhile, B 1.427 and B1.429, variants of the so-called California strain, accounted for 38.4% of all cases in California, 27.7% of all cases in Arizona, and 23.7% of all cases in Colorado. To the best of my knowledge, vaccines currently in use are effective against all of those mutant strains. What we’ll have to watch is the P1 strain from Brazil, which is at least partly vaccine and antibody resistant; that accounted for 3.7% of US cases during the March 28th to April 10th period, and ominously 14.8% of all cases in Illinois at that time. However, as of this time, I have seen no indication that it is yet affecting the Illinois state data.
The chart below from WorldoMeter shows the daily number of new cases for the US, updated through 08 May.
According to Johns Hopkins (graph below), new cases globally appear to have peaked.
Also, Johns Hopkins has a graph for global deaths (below). The high 4 weeks ago was exceeded last week, but is lower again this week, so existence of a peak for this wave is an open question again.
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Of course, Steven Hansen summarizes and links the latest news related to the pandemic every day, 7 days a week, plus displays over a dozen important graphics updated at least daily. The most recent article at the time this is published: 08 May 2021 Coronavirus Charts and News: CDC Updated Its Explaination On COVID Saying That Inhalation Is One Of The Main Ways The Virus Is Spread
This article leads the daily newsletter from Global Economic Intersection every day. Newsletter subscription is free.
Here are the rest of the articles for the past week reviewed and summarized:
Covid ‘Doesn’t Discriminate by Age’: Serious Cases on the Rise in Younger Adults — After spending much of the past year tending to elderly patients, doctors are seeing a clear demographic shift: young and middle-aged adults make up a growing share of the patients in covid-19 hospital wards. It’s both a sign of the country’s success in protecting the elderly through vaccination and an urgent reminder that younger generations will pay a heavy price if the outbreak is allowed to simmer in communities across the country.”We’re now seeing people in their 30s, 40s and 50s – young people who are really sick,” said Dr. Vishnu Chundi, a specialist in infectious diseases and chair of the Chicago Medical Society’s covid-19 task force. “Most of them make it, but some do not. … I just lost a 32-year-old with two children, so it’s heartbreaking.”Nationally, adults under 50 now account for the most hospitalized covid patients in the country – about 36% of all hospital admissions. Those ages 50 to 64 account for the second-highest number of hospitalizations, or about 31%. Meanwhile, hospitalizations among adults 65 and older have fallen significantly.About 32% of the U.S. population is now fully vaccinated, but the vast majority are people older than 65 – a group that was prioritized in the initial phase of the vaccine rollout.Although new infections are gradually declining nationwide, some regions have contended with a resurgence of the coronavirus in recent months – what some have called a “fourth wave” – propelled by the B.1.1.7 variant, first identified in the United Kingdom, which is estimated to be somewhere between 40% and 70% more contagious.As many states ditch pandemic precautions, this more virulent strain still has ample room to spread among the younger population, which remains broadly susceptible to the disease.The emergence of more dangerous strains of the virus in the U.S. – including variants first discovered in South Africa and Brazil – has made the vaccination effort all the more urgent.”We are in a whole different ballgame,” said Judith Malmgren, an epidemiologist at the University of Washington.Rising infections among young adults create a “reservoir of disease” that eventually “spills over into the rest of society” – one that has yet to reach herd immunity – and portends a broader surge in cases, she said.Fortunately, the chance of dying of covid remains very small for people under 50, but this age group can become seriously ill or experience long-term symptoms after the initial infection. People with underlying conditions such as obesity and heart disease are also more likely to become seriously ill. “B.1.1.7 doesn’t discriminate by age, and when it comes to young people, our messaging on this is still too soft,” Malmgren said.
Healthy young adults who had COVID-19 may have long-term impact on blood vessels and heart health New research published in Experimental Physiology highlight the possible long term health impacts of COVID-19 on young, relatively healthy adults who were not hospitalized and who only had minor symptoms due to the virus. Increased stiffness of arteries in particular was found in young adults, which may impact heart health, and can also be important for other populations who may have had severe cases of the virus. This means that young, healthy adults with mild COVID-19 symptoms may increase their risk of cardiovascular complications which may continue for some time after COVID-19 infection. While SARS-CoV-2, the virus known for causing the COIVD-19 pandemic, is mainly characterized by respiratory symptoms, other studies have recently shown changes to blood vessel function among young adults 3-4 weeks after being infected with SARS-CoV-2 (Ratchford et al., 2021). This has also been observed months after infection in older adults as well (Riou et al. J Clin Med. 2021). The research team at Appalachian State University found that the virus may have detrimental effects to arteries throughout the body, including in the carotid artery which supplies the brain with blood.
Organ transplant recipients remain vulnerable to COVID-19 even after second vaccine dose – In a study published today in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), Johns Hopkins Medicine researchers show that although two doses of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID 19 — confers some protection for people who have received solid organ transplants, it’s still not enough to enable them to dispense with masks, physical distancing and other safety measures. This is a follow-up study to an earlier one published in March in JAMA, in which the researchers reported that only 17% of the participating transplant recipients produced sufficient antibodies after just one dose of a two-dose COVID-19 vaccine regimen. “While there was an increase in those with detectable antibodies — 54% overall — after the second shot, the number of transplant recipients in our second study whose antibody levels reached high enough levels to ward off a SARS-CoV-2 infection was still well below what’s typically seen in people with healthy immune systems,” “Based on our findings, we recommend that transplant recipients and other immunocompromised patients continue to practice strict COVID-19 safety precautions, even after vaccination,” Boyarsky says. People who receive solid organ transplants (such as hearts, lungs and kidneys) often must take drugs to suppress their immune systems and prevent rejection. Such regimens may interfere with a transplant recipient’s ability to make antibodies to foreign substances, including the protective ones produced in response to vaccines. The new study evaluated this immunogenic response following the second dose of either of the two messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines — made by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech — for 658 transplant recipients, none of whom had a prior diagnosis of COVID-19. The participants completed their two-dose regimen between Dec. 16, 2020, and March 13, 2021. In the most recent study, the researchers found that only 98 of the 658 study participants — 15% — had detectable antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 at 21 days after the first vaccine dose. This was comparable to the 17% reported in the March study looking at immune response after only one vaccine dose. At 29 days following the second dose, the number of participants with detectable antibodies rose to 357 out of 658 — 54%. After both vaccine doses were administered, 301 out of 658 participants — 46% — had no detectable antibody at all while 259 — 39% — only produced antibodies after the second shot.
Flu Has Disappeared During Covid -Since the novel coronavirus began its global spread, influenza cases reported to the World Health Organization have dropped to minuscule levels. The reason, epidemiologists think, is that the public health measures taken to keep the coronavirus from spreading also stop the flu. Influenza viruses are transmitted in much the same way as SARS-CoV-2, but they are less effective at jumping from host to host.As Scientific American reported last fall, the drop-off in flu numbers was both swift and universal. Since then, cases have stayed remarkably low. “There’s just no flu circulating,” says Greg Poland, who has studied the disease at the Mayo Clinic for decades. The U.S. saw about 600 deaths from influenza during the 2020-2021 flu season. In comparison, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated there were roughly 22,000 deaths in the prior season and 34,000 two seasons ago.Because each year’s flu vaccine is based on strains that have been circulating during the past year, it is unclear how next year’s vaccine will fare, should the typical patterns of the disease return. The WHO made its flu strain recommendations for vaccines in late February as usual, but they were based on far fewer cases than in a common year. At the same time, with fewer virus particles circulating in the world, there is less chance of an upcoming mutation, so it is possible the 2021 – 2022 vaccine will prove extra effective.Public health experts are grateful for the reprieve. Some are also worried about a lost immune response, however. If influenza subsides for several years, today’s toddlers could miss a chance to have an early-age response imprinted on their immune system. That could be good or bad, depending on what strains circulate during the rest of their life. For now, future flu The World Health Organization tracks influenza transmission in 18 zones. Three of those regions appear here. Only people who get tested for influenzalike illnesses – typically about 5 percent of individuals who fall ill – are tallied.
Exploring the Relationship Between Neighborhood Income and Social Distancing during the COVID-19 Pandemic – Physical distancing, also known as social distancing, has been one of the primary strategies adopted by various states and localities as a prevention tool. This typically includes the closure of schools and businesses and “stay-at-home” orders. Evidence indicates that residents of low-income neighborhoods were less likely to stay – at – home in response to COVID-19 compared to higher-income communities. These communities carry anunequal disease burden with higher confirmed caseloads and mortality rates, alongside financial constraints that impact low-income workers the most, given less of an ability to work-from-home. Many essential businesses are staffed by predominantly low-wage workers forced to choose between risking their income and exposure to COVID-19. This increased inequity, which remains unaddressed by public policy, has led to further research. A recent study published in Nature Human Behaviour expanded the current evidence base by investigating the relationship between neighborhood income and physical distancing patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The authors hypothesized that: 1) the gap in physical distancing practices would be explained by work demands and not by visits to non-work locations, and; 2) state policies that ordered the closure of non-essential businesses and “stay-at-home” orders would contribute to the gap in physical distancing practices between low- and high-income communities. […] The results of this study and the impacts of COVID-19 emphasize the importance of incorporating social and economic factors into public health responses. Differences in physical distancing patterns based on income level were noticeable yet state policies did not close this gap. It is crucial for policymakers to consider how existing health disparities within certain communities may be exacerbated by new policies. Many unintended consequences can be anticipated and, thus, mitigated. Simultaneously employing other policies alongside physical distancing mandates, such as eviction moratoriums, mandating paid sick leave, and extended unemployment insurance would allow lower-income communities to better protect themselves. A more equitable COVID-19 response would include widespread adoption of these measures, just like the adoption of non-essential business closures and stay-at-home orders.
Report: FDA set to authorize Pfizer vaccine for those as young as 12 – The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is poised to authorize Pfizer and BioNTech’s coronavirus vaccine for adolescents as young as age 12 by early next week, The New York Times reported Monday. The highly anticipated decision would be a major step toward ensuring middle and high schools can operate for full in-person learning next fall – and would be a major boon to parents concerned about the safety of summer activities. Pfizer’s vaccine is currently authorized for teenagers aged 16 and older. The other two vaccines on the market in the U.S., from Moderna and Johnson & Johnson, are only authorized for adults. An FDA spokeswoman declined to comment, saying only that the review is ongoing. “We can assure the public that we are working to review this request as quickly and transparently as possible,” Stephanie Caccomo said. The agency has been reviewing the amended application from Pfizer and BioNTech for nearly a month. The companies cited research from their clinical trial in late March that found the vaccine was effective in the younger population, and produced strong antibody responses. Once the FDA issues its decision, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention vaccine advisory committee will still likely need to meet to vote on the recommendation. The U.S. has fully vaccinated more than 100 million adults, but the pace has dropped off significantly, and officials are trying to change strategy to reach the rest of the population.
Pfizer and BioNTech say they can supply 3B vaccine doses –Pfizer and BioNTech say they can produce as many as 3 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses by the end of 2021. In a statement to Bloomberg, BioNTech said it expected its capacity to create vaccines to exceed 3 billion by 2022. Less than six months prior to this development, the vaccine partners had said they would would be able to produce less than half this amount, indicating a sharp boost in production capability. Bloomberg notes that this comes as demand for mRNA vaccines around the world continues to increase. Pfizer and BioNTech had previously projected they would be able to produce around 2.5 billion doses of their vaccine this year. This announcement also comes after Pfizer announced during an earnings call on Tuesday that its vaccine had earned it $3.5 billion in the first quarter of 2020. As of mid-April, the company said it had signed contracts accounting for 1.6 billion doses to be delivered this year. Its first-quarter revenue totaled $14.6 billion, a 45 percent increase over what it earned in the first quarter of 2020. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla had said prior to the earnings call that his company expected to have the capacity to make at least 2.5 billion vaccine doses. “Based on what we’ve seen, we believe that a durable demand for our COVID-19 vaccine – similar to that of the flu vaccines – is a likely outcome,” he said. During the call, Pfizer also shared that it planned to apply for full approval from the Food and Drug Administration by the end of May, as well as emergency use authorization for a booster shot against COVID-19 variants in July. Pfizer currently accounts for the majority of coronavirus vaccines administered and delivered in the U.S.
Poll shows COVID-19 vaccine enthusiasm has reached a plateau –The American public’s enthusiasm for taking a coronavirus vaccine has reached a plateau, according to a new nationwide poll, a sign of the tough road ahead for the Biden administration’s vaccination efforts. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation’s Vaccine Monitor, the share of adults who have not yet gotten vaccinated but say they intend to do so as soon as they can has fallen to 9 percent. At the same time, about 15 percent of respondents fell into the “wait and see” group, which remained about the same in April compared to March. But among Republicans, more than half now say they’ve gotten at least one dose or will do so as soon as they can. That’s a significant increase from the 46 percent of Republicans who expressed enthusiasm about the vaccines in March. At the same time, the share of Republicans who will “definitely not” get vaccinated decreased from 29 percent in March to 20 percent in April. The survey also showed limited eagerness for parents to get their children vaccinated, a troubling trend that’s coming just as the Food and Drug Administration is poised to grant authorization for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine to be used in adolescents aged 12 to 15. Among parents who have at least one child between the ages of 12 and 15, 30 percent said they’ll get their child vaccinated right away, 26 percent wanted to wait to see how it’s working, 18 percent said they will vaccinate only if their child’s school requires it and 23 percent said they will definitely not get their child vaccinated.
CBS: As vaccinations slow, at least 22 states not ordering their full allotment – At least 22 states are not requesting their full coronavirus vaccine allotments for this week as the pace of vaccinations slows around the U.S., according to a CBS News analysis released Monday. CBS says it reached out to health officials in all 50 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico, and of the 38 states that responded, only 16 said they had ordered every vaccine that was available to them. Arkansas health officials told CBS that the state did not order any new vaccines for the week beginning Monday as the state’s supply is sufficient for its current rate of inoculation, the only state to say so. South Carolina reportedly only ordered Johnson & Johnson doses, while declining further doses of Moderna’s or Pfizer’s two-shot vaccines. Federal officials have acknowledged that the pace of U.S. vaccinations is slowing, and some health experts have publicly worried whether the U.S. will reach herd immunity for COVID-19 given that as many as eight or nine out of ever 10 people need to be vaccinated for the population to be effectively immune from the virus. White House press secretary Jen Psaki addressed the slowing vaccination rate last month, noting that the U.S. would soon reach a point where supply outstrips demand and adding that the Biden administration was working to address the issue. “We will … get to a point where we have greater supply than we have demand is because – only in some regions of the country, I should say, as you know, not everywhere – is because we work quickly to increase supply and provide thousands of easy and convenient locations for people to get vaccinated,” Psaki said. President Biden predicted Monday that the U.S. COVID-19 outbreak would be in a “very different position” by the summer. “I’ve worked very hard to make sure we have over 600 million doses of vaccine,” Biden said. “We are going to continue to make sure that is available. We are going to increase that number across the board as well so we can also be helping other nations once we take care of all Americans.”
Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe – Early in the pandemic, when vaccines for the coronavirus were still just a glimmer on the horizon, the term “herd immunity” came to signify the endgame: the point when enough Americans would be protected from the virus so we could be rid of the pathogen and reclaim our lives. Now, more than half of adults in the United States have been inoculated with at least one dose of a vaccine. But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable – at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever. Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers. How much smaller is uncertain and depends in part on how much of the nation, and the world, becomes vaccinated and how the coronavirus evolves. It is already clear, however, that the virus is changing too quickly, new variants are spreading too easily and vaccination is proceeding too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach anytime soon. Continued immunizations, especially for people at highest risk because of age, exposure or health status, will be crucial to limiting the severity of outbreaks, if not their frequency, experts believe. “The virus is unlikely to go away,” said Rustom Antia, an evolutionary biologist at Emory University in Atlanta. “But we want to do all we can to check that it’s likely to become a mild infection.” The shift in outlook presents a new challenge for public health authorities. The drive for herd immunity – by the summer, some experts once thought possible – captured the imagination of large segments of the public. To say the goal will not be attained adds another “why bother” to the list of reasons that vaccine skeptics use to avoid being inoculated. Yet vaccinations remain the key to transforming the virus into a controllable threat, experts said. Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the Biden administration’s top adviser on Covid-19, acknowledged the shift in experts’ thinking. “People were getting confused and thinking you’re never going to get the infections down until you reach this mystical level of herd immunity, whatever that number is,” he said. “That’s why we stopped using herd immunity in the classic sense,” he added. “I’m saying: Forget that for a second. You vaccinate enough people, the infections are going to go down.”
CVS, Walgreens wasted thousands of COVID-19 vaccines: report – Pharmacy chains Walgreens and CVS have wasted thousands of COVID-19 vaccines according to a report from Kaiser Health News (KHN) published on Monday citing which cites government data it has obtained. KHN reports that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recorded 182,874 wasted doses in late March, with CVS responsible for about half of those unused doses. Walgreens was responsible for about 21 percent of the overall wasted doses. In total, the two pharmacy chains wasted around 128,500 coronavirus vaccine shots, according to the data. Of the wasted vaccines, those produced by Pfizer account for about 60 percent. This data indicates that the two pharmacy retailers have wasted more shots than all U.S. states, territories and federal agencies combined, KHN reports. It is unclear why the pharmacy companies wasted so many shots, KHN reports, and the CDC does not yet have a full view of many vaccines are going to waste. Michael DeAngelis, a spokesperson for CVS, blamed the wasted shots on “issues with transportation restrictions, limitations on redirecting unused doses, and other factors.” “Despite the inherent challenges, our teams were able to limit waste to approximately one dose per onsite vaccination clinic,” DeAngelis added. A spokesperson for Walgreens, Kris Lathan, told the outlet, “Our goal has always been ensuring every dose of vaccine is used.” However, KHN notes that the overall amount of wasted vaccines is minimal when compared to the nearly 190 million that have been delivered and the 148 million that have been administered in the U.S.
May 4th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations – President Biden has set two vaccinations goals to achieve by July 4th
1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and
2) 160 million Americans fully vaccinated.
According to the CDC, on Vaccinations
1) 56.4% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose.
2) 106.2 million Americans are fully vaccinated.
And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. Over 1,500 US deaths were reported so far in May due to COVID.This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.Note: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.This data is from the CDC.The 7-day average is 48,493, down from 49,192 yesterday, and down from the recent peak of 69,881 on April 13, 2021. This is the lowest since October 9, 2020, but well above the post-summer surge low of 34,668.The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized. This data is also from the CDC.The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase. The current 7-day average is 34,287, up from 34,012 reported yesterday, and well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.
New US COVID Cases Tumble Despite 25% Drop In Daily Vaccinations –Following almost two months of roughly flat-lining new Covid cases in the US, we are now again seeing clear signs of new improvement despite a notable slowdown in covid immunizations.In recent days, many in the administration and its media propaganda arm, have tried to spook the broader population with scary stories that the recent pace of vaccinations will slow down sufficiently to prevent herd immunity from being reached, hoping to force any holdouts to get vaccinated. As a reference, as of Monday, the US population has received ~246M vaccines, or ~45% of the doses needed for full vaccination of the entire 12+ yo population (assuming two doses are needed for full vaccination).Here are the facts: as Morgan Stanley notes, since the J&J pause (which has since been reversed), 7-day average daily vaccinations have declined by ~26% (3.4M to 2.5M). However, it’s not all just J&J: as Morgan Stanley’s Matthew Harrison notes next, along with the decrease in the rate of J&J vaccine administration starting on April 13th, the administration rate of the other two available vaccines in the US (by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna) has also declined. Specifically, while use of the J&J vaccine has declined ~85% from the date of the pause in use, use of the Pfizer vaccine is down ~18% (~18% from peak) and use of the Moderna vaccine is down ~11% (~18% from peak). Therefore, the recent reduction in the total vaccination rate in the US is driven by a decrease in the administration rate of all available vaccines in the US.
NYC COVID Variant Does Not Cause More Severe Disease, CDC Says – The so-called “NYC variant” of COVID-19 does not appear to cause more severe disease than other versions of the virus, nor does it appear to increase reinfection risk, the CDC said in a new report Wednesday. Also known as B.1.526, the variant first appeared in Nov. 2020 in Washington Heights and spread rapidly. By early April, the CDC said, it accounted for 40 percent of all city cases in a representative sample tested by two labs. For the last few months, the city has warned it was too soon to tell whether this new variant was more dangerous than the “original” COVID, or as or more dangerous than other variants like those found in the UK, South Africa and Brazil. The CDC’s report appears to put at least some of those fears to rest. “Preliminary evidence suggests that, to date, B.1.526 does not lead to more severe disease or increased risk for infection after vaccination,” the CDC said. The agency added that the presence of a particular mutation in some cases of the NYC variant — one known to otherwise interfere with antibodies — did not seem to make this variant any worse either. “Although the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.526 variant emerged rapidly in NYC, early evidence suggests that this variant, even with the E484K mutation, does not lead to more severe disease and is not associated with increased risk for breakthrough infection or reinfection compared with other sequenced SARS-CoV-2 viruses,” the CDC said. The NYC variant, along with the U.K. (B.1.1.7), Brazilian (P.1) and South African (B.1.351) strains have proven to all be more transmissible than earlier strains of COVID, which is why they are known as “variants of concern” or “variants of interest.” The B.1.1.7 strain is described as a “variant of concern” because evidence shows it causes more severe infections than earlier strains. It may also be more lethal. The P.1 variant also is considered a variant of concern because evidence shows antibodies from previous infection or from vaccination may be less effective against it. 2:13 Exclusive Look Into a New Rapid Test to Detect COVID Variants New real time information is allowing scientists at Hackensack Medical Center to develop a new rapid test that detects COVID-19 variants. NBC New York’s Brian Thompson reports. The B.1.526 and B.1.1.7 variants have been detected in all five boroughs, though the former is slightly more common in the Bronx and parts of Queens. The U.K. strain is slightly more common in southern Brooklyn, eastern Queens and Staten Island.
IDPH: New COVID-19 strain detected in Iowa – The Iowa Department of Public Health confirmed two cases Tuesday of theCOVID-19 variant SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.Iowa Public Health officials said this variant was first detected in India. Scientists are still learning about the characteristics of this strain.”B.1.617 is not designated as a ‘variant of concern,’ indicating that there is not currently evidence of increased transmissibility or more severe disease caused by this variant. However, we share this information as a matter of public interest given the virus impact and newly issued travel restrictions to India. The P.1 and B.1.1.7 variant strains which were previously confirmed by IDPH are considered ‘variants of concern.'” IDPH said through a news release.Health officials said the cases were detected in an adult and an older adult in Jefferson County. IDPH and local public health have initiated contact with the individuals to understand exposures and initiate the public health monitoring process.IDPH said the case was identified by the State Hygienic Lab. “Getting vaccinated against COVID-19 is the best way to prevent this, or any other currently circulating strain of the virus from spreading through the population. Since the vaccine is now open to all Iowans over the age of 16, we have the opportunity to use this tool to protect ourselves, our loved ones and our communities,”
Brazilian COVID-19 Variant Found to be More Transmissible – A recent study conducted by investigators from Brazil, the United Kingdom and the University of Copenhagen has found that theCOVID-19 variant P.1, which originated in Brazil, is more transmissible than the original virus and is able to evade immunity.Results from the study were published in the journal Science.The city of Manaus is currently experiencing a deadly second wave of the pandemic, and many investigators believe that the novel variant is the driving force behind it.”Our main explanation is that there is an aggressive variant of the coronavirus called P.1 which seems be the cause of their problems,” Samir Bhatt, a corresponding author on the study said. “Our epidemiological model indicates that P.1 is likely to be more transmissible than previous strains of coronavirus and likely to be able to evade immunity gained from infection with other strains.”For the study, the team of investigators employed many different forms of data from the city, including 184 samples of genetic sequencing data and mortality counts, in order to characterize the P.1 variant and its properties.They then used an epidemiological model to estimate just how transmissible the variant was, and also estimated how it could evade immunity gained from a previous COVID-19 infection.Findings from the study demonstrated that the P.1 variant is likely to be between 1.7 and 2.4 times more transmissible that other lineages of the virus. They also determined that P.1 is able to evade 10% to 46% of immunity gained from a previous infection.”As researchers, we have to caution extrapolating these results to be applicable anywhere else in the world,” Bhatt said. “However, our results do underline the fact that more surveillance of the infections and of the different strains of the virus is needed in many countries in order to get the pandemic fully under control.”
COVID-19 P.1 variant discovered in Yolo County, shedding light on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 – Despite the development of vaccines and fast testing methods, SARS-CoV-2 continues to mutate and pose threats to our community. According to a recent news release by Healthy Davis Together, the P.1 variant of the virus has been identified in Yolo County. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), this variant was first identified in Brazil, and contains 17 unique mutations, three of which are specific to the receptor binding domain of the spike protein. Richard Michelmore, the director of the UC Davis Genome Center, explained that although mutations are constantly occurring in the genome, most of the time these changes do not have an impact on the virus. However, there are times that these mutations become advantageous and cause the virus to evolve. “One of the selection pressures for a virus is to increase transmissibility,” Michelmore said. “So if a virus is more transmissible, it’s going to be more successful, and we have seen a number of mutations in the virus, particularly in the receptor binding domain of the ACE-2 receptor that confer greater transmissibility.” According to the CDC, the P.1 variant is a variant of concern, meaning “a variant for which there is evidence of an increase in transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., increased hospitalizations or deaths), significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination, reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines or diagnostic detection failures.” Frank Schneegas, a public information officer at Yolo County, explained that due to the status of the P.1 variant, it is still important for people to follow public health guidance to reduce the number of infections. He further emphasized the importance for people to receive their COVID-19 vaccinations. Although there is some risk that the vaccine may be potentially less effective against these newer variants, the vaccines have been shown to still be effective.
More than half of Michigan adults have had at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose —Michigan announced on Friday that 54 percent of adults in the state have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine. The figure, rolled out on the state’s COVID-19 dashboard, marks a roughly 2.5 percentage point jump after including people who got their shots outside the state or at federal facilities. The new tracker incorporates data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which uses data from out-of-state providers and federal sites. Nearly 4.4 million Michiganders ages 16 and up have gotten at least one shot. The new high-water mark puts the state in striking distance of the 55 percent threshold Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) has said is needed to allow in-person services in all sectors. Sports stadiums, banquet halls, conference centers and funeral homes will be able to be 25 percent full once 60 percent of residents have at least one dose, and all indoor capacity restrictions will be removed two weeks after 65 percent of residents get at least one shot. Orders regarding masks and large gatherings will not be removed until 70 percent of the state is vaccinated. The new milestone in the Great Lakes State comes after Michigan in April faced the highest rate of new COVID-19 cases per capita of any state in the country.
May 7th COVID-19 Vaccinations, New Cases, Hospitalizations -President Biden has set two vaccinations goals to achieve by July 4th:
1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and
2) 160 million Americans fully vaccinated.
According to the CDC, on Vaccinations
1) 57.4% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose.
2) 109.9 million Americans are fully vaccinated.
And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. Almost 4,000 US deaths were reported so far in May due to COVID. This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported. Note: The ups and downs during the Winter surge were related to reporting delays due to the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. This data is from the CDC. The 7-day average is 43,879, down from 46,083 yesterday, and down from the recent peak of 69,881 on April 13, 2021. This is the lowest since October 4, 2020, but still above the post-summer surge low of 34,668. The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized. This data is also from the CDC. The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase.The current 7-day average is 33,265, down from 33,808 reported yesterday, and well above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.
10 residents live in isolation at Hawaii’s last leprosy community – The Kalaupapa peninsula lies in a remote area of Molokai island in Hawaii, at the base of a 2,000-foot sea cliff wall and surrounded by ocean on three sides. The massive bluffs cut off Kalaupapa from the rest of Molokai, and Kalaupapa is only accessible by plane, hiking, mule ride, or a rough boat ride.There is no way to drive into Kalaupapa, which is home to a population of 10 people, the remaining patients of what was once an infamous leprosy community. Now elderly, they were forced to live here at Kalaupapa against their will.As the world continues to battle the COVID-19 pandemic, the people exiled so long ago and shuttered from the public, are now doing everything they can to protect themselves from the world and the novel coronavirus.”They’ve endured isolation, and lived a significant portion of their lives in segregation, and now it’s reversed,” says Miki’ala Pescaia, interpretive park ranger at Kalaupapa National Historical Park. “Their isolation was imposed upon them in a way to protect the public from them, and now, we’re trying to protect them from the public.” Today, about 95% of people are immune to leprosy, and those who do come into contact with it can use antibiotics for treatment. However, in the late 1800s, leprosy, an infectious disease spread from person to person through prolonged contact that affects the skin, eyes, and nerves, was a mysterious illness in the Hawaiian islands. At the time, there was no treatment or cure for the disease as it reached epidemic proportions on the islands and threatened to wipe out the native Hawaiian population. The indigenous peoples of Hawaii did not have immunity to withstand foreign disease, due to the isolation of the islands. In an effort to stop the spread of Hansen’s disease, Hawaii passed “An Act to Prevent the Spread of Leprosy” in 1865, and designated Kalaupapa as the place where those with leprosy – and those suspected of having it – would reside. The state purchased 800 acres of land on the Kalaupapa peninsula, and began forcing people, mainly native Hawaiians, to Kalaupapa to live out the rest of their days, relying on themselves for food and resources. In January 1866, 12 Hawaiian citizens arrived at Kalaupapa, the first of about 8,000 people who were taken from their families and homes, and forced into isolation.
New study doubles global COVID-19 death toll — The number of global COVID-19 deaths is twice as high as officially reported – 6.93 million globally, 905,000 in the United States alone – according to a new study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). These new figures were reported Thursday in an analysis of “excess mortality” by the IHME. Importantly, the study includes only under-reported deaths from COVID-19, and excludes deaths from other causes related to the pandemic – including delayed medical care and “deaths of despair” such as suicides or overdoses, related to the social crisis triggered by the pandemic. The research presents a disastrous picture of the toll of the pandemic and is an indictment of the capitalist order that has allowed death on this scale to occur. If, in the words of the British medical journal BMJ, nearly 3.3 million deaths are “social murder,” what does the doubling of this death toll signify? By any measure, this is the largest public health disaster ever in the United States. 905,000 deaths are greater than all the combat and non-combat deaths in the American Civil War, the nation’s bloodiest conflict. 905,000 deaths represent one in every 367 men, women, and children in the US. 905,000 deaths are more than double the combined combat casualties of all US wars fought since the Spanish-American War in 1898, including World War I, World War II, the Korean War and the Vietnam War. Almost equally astounding is that the new estimates have gone essentially unreported in the media. The IHME has been used as the semi-official coronavirus case and death count prediction team for more than a year, referred to multiple times by the New York Times, Washington Post, and numerous others. But no matter the efforts by the media to bury this report, such a colossal loss of life has the most far-reaching implications. It is a brutal indictment of the American ruling elite and the capitalist governments of the entire world. Such mass death was not an accident, but the product of deliberate policy. The world’s ruling elite was well aware of the threat posed by the virus, but refused to raise the alarm. While Trump sought to “play down” the virus, despite being aware that “[t]his is deadly stuff,” Congress and the media received numerous briefings and interviews about the scale of the looming disaster. Yet no alarms were raised either by the White House or the media until March. Instead, plans were developed to protect the world’s markets, not human lives. In the United States and Europe, trillions of dollars and euros were pumped into financial markets, while virtually nothing was being devoted towards minimizing the impact of the pandemic, which at that point had already claimed tens of thousands of lives.
EU open to discussion on coronavirus vaccine waiver –The European Union is prepared to have a discussion on waiving international patent protections for coronavirus vaccines after the U.S. declared it would back such a move at the World Trade Organization (WTO). European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would be open to the prospect as part of any proposal to handle the pandemic “in an effective and pragmatic manner.” “That’s why we are ready to discuss how the U.S. proposal for a waiver on intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines could help achieve that objective,” she said in a speech to the European University Institute in Florence. The announcement comes a day after U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said that the U.S. would support a waiver as countries across the globe grapple with worrisome spikes in COVID-19 cases. “The Administration believes strongly in intellectual property protections, but in service of ending this pandemic, supports the waiver of those protections for COVID-19 vaccines,” Tai said in a statement. The WTO is currently negotiating the precise language of such a waiver, talks that Tai said “will take time given the consensus-based nature of the institution and the complexity of the issues involved.” World powers have come under increased pressure from activists and lower-income countries that have struggled to get their coronavirus outbreaks under control. Wealthy countries have purchased more than half of nearly 9 billion doses that have been sold to date, according to the Duke Global Health Innovation Center. Meanwhile, India is currently experiencing one of the worst waves of cases the world has seen since the pandemic’s start, and countries like South Africa are still facing high case counts due to highly infectious variants.
Pfizer CEO discussing expedited vaccine approval with India – Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said in a LinkedIn post Monday that his company would be donating $70 million worth of medicines to India and was also discussing fast-tracking its vaccine approval in the country as it battles a massive wave of new coronavirus cases. Bourla wrote that Pfizer would be donating steroids, anticoagulants and antibiotics to ensure “every COVID-19 patient in every public hospital across the country can have access to Pfizer medicines they need free of charge.” “Pfizer is aware that access to vaccines is critical to ending this pandemic. Unfortunately, our vaccine is not registered in India although our application was submitted months ago,” Bourla said. “We are currently discussing with the Indian government an expedited approval pathway to make our Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine available for use in the country.” “As we work to meet the public health needs and to be a partner with the Government of India to establish a path forward for our vaccine, please know you and your loved ones are foremost in our thoughts and prayers,” Bourla added. India has so far approved four COVID-19 vaccines for use: Covaxin, Sputnik V, AstraZeneca and Covishield. Covaxin and Covishield were both created in India. According to to the World Health Organization, India has confirmed around 20 million coronavirus cases and more than 200,000 deaths. More than 147 million vaccine doses have been administered in the country, which has a population of more than 1.3 billion.
India Just Became Latest Country to Approve Use of Ivermectin to Treat Covid-19 – Doctors in India, the world’s second most populous country, are locked in an epic, gruesome battle against SARS Cov2. The country currently accounts for half of the world’s cases. Many cities are running out of hospital beds. As happened in Mexico and Brazil just a few months ago, medicinal Oxygen has become dangerously scarce and is being sold on the black market at extortionate prices. As of last week fewer than 10% of Indians had received even one dose of a vaccine. Just 1.6% are fully vaccinated, according to a New York Times database – even though India is producing two vaccines on its own soil and is home to the world’s biggest vaccine manufacturer. This time around, India’s government has spectacularly failed to contain the spread of the disease, largely due to its own complacency. Many doctors are prescribing Remdesivir despite the medicine’s high cost and lackluster performance in clinical studies and unproven safety record. There has been a surge in black market sales of the drug as people have rushed to try to secure it, leading to a crunch in its supply. A single vial can go for Rs30,000 – ten times the official retail price. As Jerri Lynn reported on Sunday, the huge uncontrolled wave of infections hitting India is having all sorts of implications for the Modi government. In its desperation to regain control of the virus, India’s government quietly changed its treatment guidelines last week. The new guidelines include the option of prescribing two repurposed medicines for mild Covid patients: budesonid and ivermectin. The former is an inhaled steroid that has been shown to reduce the time to recovery and need for urgent medical care. The latter is an off-patent anti-parasitic that has been discovered to have powerful anti-viral and anti-inflammatory properties. India is no stranger to ivermectin. The medicine has been used as an anti-parasitic for decades. It has also been used in the fight against malaria. Two of its regions, Uttar Pradesh (population: 230 million) and Bihar, have been using the medicine since August, to dramatic effect. By the end of 2020, Uttar Pradesh (UP) – which distributed free ivermectin for home care – had the second-lowest fatality rate in India at 0.26 per 100,000 residents. Only the state of Bihar, with 128 million residents, had less. But Uttar Pradesh (UP) did more than treat 300,000 mild cases at home through 2020; it also opted to use ivermectin to prevent infection. COVID response teams began taking the drug and they did not catch the illness. The same thing was reported in a study of frontline critical care workers in Argentina. U.P. then had contacts of COVID patients take it, with similar success. “Recognizing the sense of urgency,” Amit Mohan Prasad, a U.P. health official, wrote in a Dec. 30 article, “we decided to go ahead.” Yet UP’s remarkable success at controlling the virus did not inform national policy – at least not until now. The Indian Council of Medical Research declined in October to recommend ivermectin nationwide, citing, like so many health regulators, the need for more data. But all that changed last week as India became the biggest country on the planet to adopt nationwide use of ivermectin against Covid-19.
It’s Not Just India. New Virus Waves Hit Developing Countries –It’s not just India. Fierce new Covid-19 waves are enveloping other developing countries across the world, placing severe strain on their health-care systems and prompting appeals for help. Nations ranging from Laos to Thailand in Southeast Asia, and those bordering India such as Bhutan and Nepal, have been reporting significant surges in infections in the past few weeks. The increase is mainly because of more contagious virus variants, though complacency and lack of resources to contain the spread have also been cited as reasons. In Laos last week, the health minister sought medical equipment, supplies and treatment, as cases jumped more than 200-fold in a month. Nepal is seeing hospitals quickly filling up and running out of oxygen supplies. Health facilities are under pressure in Thailand, where 98% of new cases are from a more infectious strain of the pathogen, while some island nations in the Pacific Ocean are facing their first Covid waves.Although nowhere close to India’s population or flare-up in scope, the reported spikes in these handful of nations have been far steeper, signaling the potential dangers of an uncontrolled spread. The resurgence — and first-time outbreaks in some places that largely avoided the scourge last year — heightens the urgency of delivering vaccine supplies to poorer, less influential countries and averting a protracted pandemic. “It’s very important to realize that the situation in India can happen anywhere,” said Hans Kluge, the regional director at the World Health Organization for Europe, during a briefing last week. “This is still a huge challenge.” Ranked by the change in newly recorded infections in the past month over the previous month, Laos came first with a 22,000% increase, followed by Nepal and Thailand, both of which saw fresh caseload skyrocketing more than 1,000% on a month-over-month basis. Also on top of the list are Bhutan, Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname, Cambodia and Fiji, as they witnessed the epidemic erupt at a high triple-digit pace. “All countries are at risk,” said David Heymann, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. “The disease appears to be becoming endemic and will therefore likely remain a risk to all countries for the foreseeable future.”
Young Delhi resident describes India’s COVID-19 catastrophe – India is submerged in a horrific surge of COVID-19, believed to be driven by a double-mutant strain of the coronavirus. Like the Brazilian and South African variants, this variant appears to reduce vaccine effectiveness and natural immunity acquired from previous infections. India is now the country recording the most cases of COVID-19 in the world, nearly 400,000 per day. Over 220,000 people have died of the virus in India. Vaibhavi, a youth from Delhi who has been unemployed and is now living with family in nearby Gurgaon since returning to India last year after graduating from college abroad, spoke to the WSWS on the catastrophe unfolding in India. She said, “I have never been surrounded by such a huge loss of human life. … It seems COVID and death are everywhere. Every family I know either has or has had COVID in the past few weeks. On my old street in Delhi, every single house has a COVID infection.” She added, “Last week, my cousin in Kanpur died. He was only 34. Two of my high school friends’ parents have died in the last two days. … A very close friend messaged me and our other friends two days ago, desperately searching for oxygen because her granddad is very sick in a home ICU. Yesterday, I had to find an oxygen concentrator for my aunt. I was able to find one on Twitter, but it’s cost my family 85,000 rupees ($1,150).” Conditions are horrific in hospitals, many of which have no free beds, Vaibhavi said: “Doctors who haven’t slept for days have patients dying due to the lack of basic resources. One video shows doctors and family members desperately trying to resuscitate patients, only for them to die. There’s even been violence when people can’t find the care their family members need. Many hospitals have just begun locking their gates, leaving people stuck outside with their relatives dying in their arms.” She added, “All the crematoriums in Delhi are overfilled. Many crematoriums are overflowing into the street or using car parks to burn bodies. There are even makeshift funeral pyres to burn multiple bodies at once. One crematorium with a capacity of 20 bodies had 93 bodies come two days ago. Families are forced to dump their relatives outside crematoriums with no funeral rites or any dignity. Many crematoriums report burning an increased number of children’s bodies, as well.” Official statistics massively underestimate coronavirus infections and deaths, Vaibhavi noted: “Deaths are only counted as COVID-related if there is a test or a doctor’s report from a hospital. Most who die at home aren’t tested. People see all the images of people choking to death in hospital entrances, so they don’t even try to take their relatives there. There are also no tests in Delhi at the moment. Many labs have closed completely due to the entire staff being infected with the virus.”
Country With World’s Highest Vaccination Rate Orders New Lockdown As COVID Cases Surge —While most people might guess that Israel or the UK hold the title, the tiny island nation of Seychelles is actually the most vaccinated country on earth, with more than 62% of its adult population already “fully vaccinated”, according to a BBC report. However, despite the fact that the island nation is closing in on the herd immunity threshold, the country and its public health officials have been forced this week to reimpose restrictions due to a surge in COVID-19 cases. All schools in the country have been closed and sporting activities cancelled for two weeks in the country, which is spread across an archipelago in the Indian Ocean. Measures also include a ban on inter-household interaction, some types of in-person gatherings, and the early closure of shops, bars and casinos. Non-essential workers are also being encouraged to work from home, while a 2300 local time curfew has been revived. There are currently 1.07K active Covid cases in the Seychelles, of which a third have been detected in people given two doses of either AstraZeneca’s or China’s Sinopharm’s vaccine. It unclear what has triggered the surge in cases but testing has detected the South African variant spreading on the islands. Scientists believe the mutant strain can evade immunity and make jabs up to 30 per cent weaker at preventing infections – but they think Western vaccines should still stop people falling severely ill if they get infected. But because Seychelles is not actively analyzing a large amount of positive tests (something the UK and other countries are doing to monitor the spread of variants) it is difficult to tell exactly which strain has taken hold in the country. But the country’s close links to South Africa means it is likely the B.1.351 variant could be behind the rise. Seychelles was added to Britain’s travel “red list” in January along with nine southern African countries and Mauritius in a bid to prevent the UK from importing the strain.
Seychelles, World’s Most Vaccinated Country, Hit by Covid Surge … .Including Among the Vaccinated – by Yves Smith –The Seychelles is a tiny country, with a population of less than 100,000 people. It is nevertheless providing a cautionary tale in what happens if you relax Covid protections and rely over-much on vaccinations as your Covid firewall. It’s in the midst of a Covid outbreak so severe that it has had to reimpose lockdown-type measures like closing bars and schools, despite having over 60% of its adults fully vaccinated. The trigger appears to have been reopening the archipelago for tourism. From Bloomberg: Seychelles, which has fully vaccinated more of its population against COVID-19 than any other country, has closed schools and canceled sporting activities for two weeks as infections surge … To date 62.2% of its eligible population is fully vaccinated, according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker. That compares with 55.9% for Israel, the next most vaccinated nation. Colonel Smithers added via e-mail: The BBC article [cited below] did not mention that a few weeks ago Seychelles and Maldives opened their borders to tourism, somewhat to the envy of their competitor for tourist hard currency Mauritius. The big Mauritian hotel operators have hotels in Seychelles and Maldives and have been lobbying for Mauritius to open, too, and cited the example of the pair. This included getting a doctor heiress to a hotel fortune, amongst other sources of income, to write about the need to open in the island’s largest circulation newspaper. Seychelles and Maldives have been advertising that they are open for business in the likes of the FT and Guardian and on CNN in the past fortnight. Not just tourism, but people able to and wishing to work from home or just sit out the pandemic for a while in the tropics, not necessarily those with any connections to the archipelagos. One wonders if variants from around the world which render the current vaccines ineffective have caused this. It is hard to blame vaccine choice. Seychelles used Sinopharm, which according to the BBC, has performed well, and AstraZeneca. And as you can see from the chart below, these vaccines don’t require as much special handling as the mRNA alternatives, meaning the odds of spoilage would be lower. From the BBC: The Seychelles, which has fully vaccinated over 60% of its population against Covid-19, is bringing back restrictions amid a rise in cases. The archipelago of nearly 100,000 people recorded close to 500 new cases in the three days to 1 May and has about 1,000 active cases. A third of the active cases involved people who had had two vaccine doses, the country’s news agency said … . We don’t have more granular data as to whether the bad outcomes occurred heavily among citizens who weren’t far enough past their second shot to have received full immunity. But this is still not a good look.
India reports almost 4,000 daily COVID-19 deaths as the country faces severe vaccine shortages — The current surge in COVID-19 infections throughout India has no precedent in the entire course of the COVID-19 pandemic. A new record of daily cases was set just yesterday when the toll reached an astronomical high of 412,618, accounting for nearly half of the 850,000 global cases reported.The number of deaths in India from the coronavirus was also the highest ever reported for the country, reaching 3,980. By every account, these numbers are vastly understated, given India’s archaic and dysfunctional official registry for documenting mortality.Globally, the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases is approaching 160 million, while reported deaths stand at 3.26 million. For 10 successive weeks, daily COVID-19 cases throughout the world have been climbing steadily. This appears to have reached a new plateau last week with an increase of only 0.13 percent from the previous week.Deaths, however, continue to rise. Yesterday, worldwide, there were 14,567 deaths tallied. South America accounted for 4,418 of these, as Brazil and many Latin American countries continue to face repeated surges of new infections followed by deaths that seem unending. Meanwhile, North America and Europe have reported 1,303 and 2,809 deaths respectively, down from their peaks just a few months ago.Asia reported 5,713 deaths, with India contributing the lion’s share to this grim statistic, a complete inverse of the developments, in the first year of the pandemic, when Europe and the US appeared as the epicenters of the pandemic, and the poorer countries were relatively less affected.The reversal of fortunes for the US and Europe is by no means because of a change in tactics or implementing scientific and critical public health measures. Instead, the imperialist centers have taken advantage of possessing well-developed pharmaceutical industries which, with massive government funded, rolled out effective vaccinations much more quickly than initially expected.The ensuing policy of vaccine nationalism means to inoculate the population and declare the pandemic finally over, while the most tragic and ominous developments continue in Latin America and Asia (as well as in the poorer sections of the advanced regions themselves).
This village’s story shows just how unprepared rural India is for the latest COVID surge – When 55-year-old Shrirang Gavde began gasping for breath at his home in the western Indian state of Maharashtra on April 24, his wife and son sat him in an auto-rickshaw and commenced their desperate search for a hospital bed. Over the next few hours, they visited roughly 15 facilities near their village in the Palghar district of the state, only to be turned away each time. Eventually, Gavde’s oxygen saturation levels plummeted, and by the time they’d arrived at a hospital that seemed promising, he was already dead. For two hours, the family stayed with the body in the auto-rickshaw, waiting for a doctor to check him. No one came. During the first wave of the pandemic last year, such scenes were initially limited to India’s densely populated cities. But as a second wave of COVID-19 now ravages the country, wide swaths of rural India – home to nearly 900 million people, often with far fewer resources – now find themselves in the pandemic’s grip. “A lot of people are trying to run around and access care,” sats Anant Bhan, a global health researcher affiliated with the Kasturba Medical College in Karnataka, “because our health system is relatively much weaker in rural India.” The escalating scourge and the shortage of available emergency services has prompted a sort of mass migration, with thousands of villagers flowing toward urban centers – sometimes in other states – in a desperate attempt to find care. Others, seeing few options, are turning to pseudoscientific healers for unproven treatments. And as the death toll rises, those who are not yet ill face a wrenching loss of livelihood, as renewed COVID-19 restrictions confine them to their homes and push them deeper into poverty.”There are many patients here, whom their families rushed to hospitals. However, there were no beds, oxygen cylinders, and ventilators available,” says Jatin Kadam, a 39-year-old schoolteacher in Saphale, another village in the Palghar district – a mostly rural region and among the worst hit areas of the state, with more than 88,000 total cases as of this week, and only a few thousand hospital beds. Intensive care spots are filled to capacity, and there are currently no ventilators available, according to government data. “There has been such an increase in the number of deaths,” Kadam says, “that we don’t even remember all their names.”
Indian CDC Says Covid Surge Is Linked To B.1.617 Variant –A recent surge in Coronavirus infections has helped pushed India to 21 million cases and 230,000 deaths due to Covid.What is causing the surge in Covid-19?One contributing factor seems to be a new strain (or ‘lineage’) of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus: the B.1.617 variant. Until recently, however, there wasn’t enough data to determine whether B.1.617 is playing a part. In March 2021, India’s National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) – equivalent to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) – claimed that the variant had been observed in too few samples to establish a link to the surge. But the health agency now says B.1.617 is linked to the surge, based on sampling more people in several Indian states. According to Sujeet Kumar Singh, the director of India’s NCDC, “The current surge in cases seen over the last one and half month in some states shows a correlation with rise in the B.1.617 lineage.” At a press conference on 5 May 2021, Singh added that the “epidemiological and clinical correlation is not fully established [and] without the correlation, we cannot establish direct linkage to any surge.” Singh’s wording is confusing as the words ‘correlation’ and ‘linkage’ serve as synonyms in everyday speech. In the first quote, Singh used ‘correlation’ in the colloquial sense – a link between two things – whereas, in the second instance, he meant a statistical association, a relationship where one thing (variable) depends on the other. Scientists love to say “correlation does not imply causation” and Singh was probably trying to avoid the suggestion that B.1.617 is the cause of the surge. The NCDC director needed to be careful with language when discussing a problem that involves people – including Covid outbreaks – as cause can lead to blame. B.1.617 has been detected in over 25 countries to date, but it was first discovered in India. As a consequence, the country’s health agency was stuck between a rock and a hard place due to the potential impact on society and global politics.
More virulent COVID strain, insufficient infra have led to more deaths in Delhi: Experts –A more virulent strain of coronavirus, insufficient infrastructure to handle critical cases and hoarding of essential drugs has led to more deaths in Delhi, experts said on Tuesday. They also said the number of deaths could be more as many patients die outside hospitals waiting for a bed. Dr Jugal Kishore, the head of community medicine at Safdarjung Hospital, said the ‘insufficiency of infrastructure’ to handle critical patients is leading to more deaths. ‘The virus is not causing so many deaths, it is the insufficient resources and facilities. This is the major reason,’ he said. Critical cases are piling up but there are no beds available for them. Many patients have died on the way to hospitals or outside healthcare facilities waiting for a bed, while many have died due to unavailability of oxygen, Dr Kishore said. Critical patients spend 10 to 20 days in ICU or on oxygen support. So, the beds remain occupied for this period, even as the number of critical cases keep increasing every day, he said. Black-marketing and hoarding of essential drugs being used to treat critical patients is another reason. ‘This has limited the people’s access to these drugs,’ he said. Sudhanshu Bankata, the Executive Director of Batra Hospital in Tughlakabad Institutional Area, said a critical patient succumbs to the virus after 14 to 15 days of testing positive. ‘So, if there are more cases today, the number of deaths will be high on the 14th or the 15th day,’ he said. Bankata also said that a large number of patients are being treated at home, as hospital beds are full. ‘In many cases, patients require high oxygen flow which can only be provided at hospitals and not through concentrators or cylinders. By the time a bed becomes available, their situation has already deteriorated sharply,’ he said. Dr D K Baluja, medical director of Jaipur Golden Hospital, said, ‘The quantum (of infections) is very high. The number of cases has increased from 8,000 to 25,000. So, the absolute number of deaths will be three times more.’ ‘Your logistics, manpower, everything crashes in such a situation. The way the load is increasing, your capacity is not able to match up to it,’ he said. Of the 17,414 COVID-19 deaths in Delhi since the pandemic began, more than 5,050 have occurred in the last two weeks.
COVID-19 | A.P. strain at least 15 times more virulent – The Hindu – The new variant has shorter incubation period and the progress of the disease is much rapidWhile it is too early to state whether the new coronavirus variant discovered by CCMB (Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology) N440K, is the variant that is creating havoc in Visakhapatnam and other parts of the State, experts say the new prevalent variant, which is being called as the AP variant as it was first discovered in Kurnool, is at least 15 times more virulent than the earlier ones, and may be even stronger than the Indian variants of B1.617 and B1.618.Divya Tej Sowpati, scientist at the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology, Hyderabad, and who closely works with genome sequencing of coronavirus said that the variant was closely related to the coronavirus lineage B.1.36 and had previously been linked to a spike in cases in several states of South India. “The defining mutation is N440K, a mutation that was known since last year and widely prevalent in Andhra Pradesh. When tested in cell culture studies, they appeared to spread quite quickly but that’s not how it always plays out in the real world,” he said in a phone conversation.”N440K is slowly dying out and was fast being replaced by two other variants – B.1.1.7 and B.1.617 in almost all southern states including Kerala,” said Vinod Scaria, scientist at the CSIR-Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology, New Delhi. The N440K had been associated with cases of reinfection in Delhi and possibly helped the coronavirus bind tighter to lung cells. B.1.1.7 and B.1.617 are the ‘UK Variant’ and the Indian variant, also known as the ‘double mutant.’ “We are still to ascertain, which strain is in circulation right now, as samples have been sent to CCMB for analysis. But one thing is certain that the variant at present which is in circulation in Visakhapatnam is quite different from what we have seen during the first wave last year,” said District Collector V. Vinay Chand, who has been updated by senior doctors in the health department.
Fears of ‘double-mutant’ Covid strain after two cases in Sydney — There are fears a ‘double-mutant’ coronavirus strain has leaked into the communitydespite NSW reporting zero new cases on Friday.The promising result comes after Premier Gladys Berejiklian said on Thursday a woman tested positive for the virus after it was revealed a day before her husband, a man in his 50s, also returned a positive result. Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant said the two tested positive for the B.1.617 mutation, according to the Sydney Morning Herald.Despite the promising number of cases on Friday, there are fears the strain could still be circulating in the community as there is a missing link between the man and the original source which was traced to an overseas traveller in a quarantine facility. University of Sydney virologist Megan Steain told The Sydney Morning Herald the strain could potentially be transmitted at a more rapid rate than past strains.There are fears a double mutant strain has been leaked into the NSW community. Source: Getty”The rate at which (the variant) seems to be spreading in India suggests that it may be transmitted more efficiently than earlier variants of the virus,” she said.”Quickly performing contact tracing, testing and isolating people potentially exposed individuals will also be key to preventing spread in the community.”
Singapore soft-pedals reopening amid new outbreak – A small but growing number of Covid-19 cases linked to India’s highly contagious virus variant has rattled Singapore, forcing the government to tighten social distancing measures and step up border curbs that could delay the opening of a travel bubble with Hong Kong and postpone planned major in-person events. Initially set to launch on May 26 after a previous delay due to rising cases in Hong Kong, Singapore has said it will “review” the travel bubble scheme. It’s not clear if new, longer quarantine requirements will scupper other planned conferences and events, including the Shangri La Dialogue, that aim to showcase the city-state as a safe and resilient business hub. At least 40 new cases have been linked to a cluster at one of Singapore’s biggest hospitals after a fully vaccinated 46-year-old nurse working there tested positive for Covid-19 on April 28. The case marked Singapore’s first-ever cluster at a hospital and is now the largest of nine active clusters. At least 10 of the recent cases have been linked to India’s B1617 variant, underscoring the mounting risks posed by viral mutations that could prove to be more transmissible and more vaccine-resistant than earlier strains of the coronavirus. Ten unlinked community cases have also been reported over the last week. “The new variant strains have higher attack rates, they are more infectious, they are causing larger clusters than before,” said Lawrence Wong, education minister and co-chair of Singapore’s multi-ministry task force on Covid-19, at a press briefing on May 4 that announced more stringent quarantine measures and limits on social gatherings. Inbound travelers arriving in Singapore from so-called higher-risk countries and regions – all places except Australia, Brunei, mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, New Zealand, and Taiwan – will have to serve 21 days of quarantine at dedicated facilities from May 8, up from the current requirement of 14 days. This comes after Singapore barred visitors from India, which is battling a deadly second wave that has seen the world’s biggest surge in daily coronavirus infections. The entry ban was expanded further to those with a recent travel history to Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, due to rises in Covid-19 cases in South Asia.
Deadly Nigerian COVID strain spreading fastest in Kent with ‘clusters of linked cases’ – Government data shows a new and potentially more deadly strain of coronavirus is spreading in Kent faster than anywhere else.A new variant known as B1525 and believed to have originated in Nigeria was detected in our area for the first time several weeks ago.Public Health England has found it has killed 3.6 per cent of people infected with it in this country so far.That compares to 2.3 per cent killed by the now dominant new strain widely known as the Kent variant, which itself is thought to be more deadly than the original strain.The Nigerian strain also carries the feared mutation known as E484K, thought to help it evade antibodies and potentially making vaccines less effective.The 388 cases recorded are enough to make it the third most numerous variant in the UK, behind only the dominant Kent strain and the South African strain (737 cases).New modelling from Public Health England also suggests it is spreading fastest in Kent.Out of 65 new cases recorded between April 1 and April 22, almost a third (19) came from people living in the South East region.And in its latest technical briefing on variants, Public Health England produced a map showing geographical spread of B1525 “excluding cases that have travelled” – in other words places where community transmission is taking place.
Rise in tuberculosis in Peru: A byproduct of the COVID-19 pandemic – In an article titled, “An Unexpected Pandemic Side Effect in Peru: A Comeback For TB,” NPR (National Public Radio) gives a sobering account of the rise of tuberculosis (TB) in Peru and much of the developing world because of the COVID-19 pandemic. In Peru, in 2019, the nonprofit health care organization Partners in Health (PIH) began a screening program called TB Movil, which brings TB testing to the community via two vans equipped with X-ray machines that use Artificial Intelligence (AI) software to diagnose TB quickly and accurately. The vans are operational in the three northernmost districts of Peru’s capital, Lima. Martin Valencia Garcia, a community agent of TB Movil, noticed that after the onset of COVID-19, patients likely stopped seeking further tests and treatment. Speaking of a 52-year-old patient who was in his care before COVID-19 but has since lost touch with him, Garcia remarked, “He could not do the exams, and since he couldn’t do the exams, he couldn’t be diagnosed, and he couldn’t receive treatment.” Under disruptions caused by COVID-19, Luz Villa-Castillo, a study coordinator at Cayetano Heredia University in Lima, pointed to the masking of a rising tuberculosis caseload as fewer patients sought diagnostic testing and received inconsistent treatment. Villa-Castillo suspects many milder strains of TB may “have likely become resistant.” At the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020, Peru, like most countries across the globe, went into partial lockdown with restrictions on movement and commerce. While lives were certainly saved, job losses were extensive, leading to more than six million people left unemployed by the second quarter of 2020, with many jobs permanently destroyed. The stresses of economic devastation coupled with a lack of transportation also meant that many patients with multiple drug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) most likely stopped seeking treatment and were lost to followup evaluation and care. Worldwide, TB is one of the top 10 causes of death and the leading cause from a single infectious agent. The World Health Organization (WHO) states that a total of 1.4 million people died from TB in 2019 (including 208,000 people who also had HIV). The infectious disease is caused by the bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis, which usually affects the lungs, causing the signature bloody coughs. Most infections, however, are described as latent TB, producing no symptoms, and the person is considered not contagious. The primary risk is that about 10 percent of these individuals will go on to develop the active disease. The risk is as high as 5 percent in the first two years, climbing at a rate of 0.1 percent per year afterwards. The elderly or those with compromised immune systems, such as people living with HIV, malnutrition or diabetes, or people who use tobacco, have a higher risk of falling ill with active TB. TB is considered a poor man’s disease, with 95 percent of cases and deaths appearing in developing countries. In 2019, out of the estimated 10 million people who fell ill with TB worldwide, 2.2 million cases were attributed to undernutrition. Another 1.4 million cases were attributable to alcohol use disorder and smoking, practices that continue to exist disproportionately in poorer sections of global communities.
How most of the West got the pandemic so badly wrong? –It takes a lot to shock me nowadays, but the failure of most OECD countries over this pandemic I do find shocking. Not in the case of the UK under Johnson, the US under Trump, Brazil under Bolsonaro or India under Modi, as the reasons for their failures are all too obvious. After all Johnson had the idea before the pandemic that the UK should be the one country to opt out of restricting the economy to save lives, and that this would give the UK some big global economic advantage. Only when the implied National Health Sservice chaos was explained to him did he change his mind. What I find shocking is the failure of mainland Europe almost without exception A few countries did completely understand what they needed to do, which was to follow an elimination strategy. If you are still not convinced of the wisdom of this strategy, a recent article * in the Lancet should help. It compares the small number of OECD countries (Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Iceland and Japan) that did undertake an elimination strategy (sometimes called zero-COVID) with most of the other OECD countries that did not. Here is the first chart from that study: Quite simply the elimination strategy is infinitely better at avoiding COVID deaths. It is infinitely better at avoiding cases of long-COVID. It is also better for the economy as the chart below from that study shows (the red line represents the elimination countries): Elimination countries saw a smaller fall in GDP, and a faster recovery at the end of 2020 and so far in 2021. The big lie perpetuated in the majority of OECD countries that failed to go for elimination is that there was a health/economy trade-off. As this table shows that is not true, and as I argued quite soon after the pandemic hit we knew it was not true. The reason it is not true is very simple: if you fail to lockdown hard and early to eliminate the virus, it will carry on growing exponentially either forcing a much longer and stricter lockdown later on and/or people will just stay at home anyway which will have a huge impact on the economy. This is shown clearly in the final chart from the Lancet article: Were the countries that adopted elimination worse off in any way? As far as I can see in only one way: freedom of overseas travel. Elimination requires hotel quarantine or just travel bans to stop COVID cases coming in from abroad. Of course if more countries had adopted an elimination strategy, the less severe those travel restrictions would be because travel would often be possible between elimination countries.
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