President Biden in the Real World of Three New Kingdoms

Written by Frank Li

In this post, I will highlight the challenges for President Biden in the real world of Three New Kingdoms (i.e., America, China, and Russia) and provide him with some candid advice.

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1. Three New Kingdoms

The image below highlights the formidable China-Russia alliance.

For more, read: Three New Kingdoms.

2. President Trump failed in dealing with Russia or China

Here is my warning to him (issued on 2/15/2017): President Trump in the Real World of Three New Kingdoms. He failed miserably for one simple reason: He was a minor league player trying to play in the major league!

With Russia, his failure against President Putin was on full display for the world to see in 2018 (In Putin he trusts: Remember Trump’s Helsinki betrayal) – He simply did not have it, either the experience or the intellectual rigor (or both)!

With China, he lost almost completely. Three examples:

1. Donald Trump’s Pledge to Withdraw U.S. From TPP Opens the Door for China.
2. Trump’s trade war on China was a failure in every possible way.
3. Europe strikes major investment deal with China despite US concerns. It was signed JIT (Just In Time) as a welcome gesture to President Biden!

3. Welcome President Biden!

President Biden does not seem to know what to do, after inheriting a very bad hand from his predecessor. Two bad starts with Russia and China, respectively:

1. Biden confronts Putin over several issues in first call, White House says.
2. China will ‘eat our lunch,’ Biden warns after clashing with Xi on most fronts.

The image below highlights the relationships between the three countries today.

Both President Xi and President Putin are proven world leaders, while President Biden has a long way to go to prove himself as a good American President as well as a true world leader, beyond what’s automatically given to an American President.

Even more challenging for America, President Biden must deal with both of them, standing together on the other side. President Trump tried to split them, without success – He should not have even tried, had he read Three New Kingdoms.

The only plus for Biden is that he has far more foreign policy experience coming into office than any of his four immediate predecessors. But that alone is not good enough. He must up his game by several notches, or he will fail, just like his four immediate predecessors.

As a starter, better understand your opponents, as well as yourself …

4. What do the three countries need?

Let me highlight the needs of the three countries one by one.

4.1 What does Russia need?

Simply put, Russia needs four things:

1. Political stability at home, for which President Putin has been very successful, with consistently high approval ratings (Putin’s approval rating in Russia).
2. Economic stability at home, for which Russia needs China for many of its daily material needs in exchange for natural resources. In other words, no Western sanctions against it will work, if Russia just keeps its back door to China open!
3. High oil prices, for which Russia needs to maintain and expand its global influence, especially in the Mideast.
4. National pride: “Make Russia Great Again”. Russia is a prideful country, and must hence maintain, and even gradually expand, its sphere of influence, for which it must have, and keep, Crimea for access to the Black Sea.

Bottom line: Russia relies on China for survival, but does not need America at all, other than wishing America not to further mess up in the Mideast or Ukraine, and not to interfere in Russia’s domestic affairs (e.g., Russia accuses US diplomats of publishing Navalny rally routes).

4.2 What does China need?

Simply put, China needs four things:

1. Political stability at home, for which China must constantly improve, as its system (i.e., state capitalism) is only slightly better than America’s.
2. Economic stability at home, for which China must keep its high growth going for years, if not decades, to come.
3. A peaceful world, as China wants to trade with everybody and needs natural resources, mostly from Russia and the Mideast.
4. National pride: “Make China Great Again”. China is a world leader and must maintain, and expand, its sphere of influence. China will never compromise on its domestic affairs, such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, the South China Sea, or Xinjiang. For more, read: What Is China, Anyway? (V4).

Bottom line: China needs (1) Russia for natural resources and (2) America to trade. Additionally, just like Russia, China wants the U.S. to stay out of its domestic affairs (e.g., China accuses U.S. of Abusing National Security Excuse While Doing Same in Hong Kong, Xinjiang).

4.3 What does America need?

Simply put, America needs four things:

1. Political reforms at home: It’s a must and I have already spelled out how (Two Solutions for America). It’s now up to President Biden as to how far he wants to go.
2. Economic stability at home: Bring Covid-19 under control and end the trade wars, especially the one with China. For more, read: China Is Paying for the Tariffs like Mexico Is Paying for the Wall!
3. Curtailing its military ventures overseas, especially in the Mideast.
4. National pride: Truly “Make America Great Again”. America is deeply in trouble, both at home and abroad. America must therefore re-position itself globally, which means yielding more of its sphere of influence to China and Russia, while sharply focusing inward by getting its own house in order!

5. What does America want?

On February 19, 2021, President Biden delivered his first major speech on foreign policy to the world (Biden affirms transatlantic ties as he signals break from Trump).

Aside from explicitly indicating “I am not Trump” (i.e., “America alone” is out), he settled back on an old (and Cold War) mentality by emphasizing that this is a bi-polar world: democracy (i.e., the West) vs. autocracy (i.e., China and Russia), without seemingly realizing that the world has changed a lot over the past few years!

Two simple facts:

1. Russia does not need the EU, but the EU needs Russia!
2. The U.S. can no longer count on the EU against China!

Let me elaborate on each …

5.1 Russia does not need the EU, but the EU needs Russia!

Russia does not need the EU for survival, but the EU needs Russian gas for cooking and staying warm in the winter – See image below.

5.2 The U.S. can no longer count on the EU against China!

Here is a recent news story: Macron: EU shouldn’t gang up on China with US.

Remember the “welcome gesture” to President Biden mentioned above in Section 2?

President Biden did not seem to be aware of it, or worse, he ignored it!

5.3 President Biden

President Biden was correct in saying “China will eat our lunch” (China will ‘eat our lunch,’ Biden warns after clashing with Xi on most fronts). But I do not think he knows the real reason, let alone have a real solution.

Here is the real reason: China’s system, “state capitalism” (i.e., capitalism + autocracy), is actually slightly better than America’s system (i.e., capitalism + democracy).

Here is the real solution for America: reform our political system, fundamentally and significantly, as I have suggested (Two Solutions for America).

6. Some candid advice for the Biden administration

1. Better understand America, truly (What Is America, Anyway?).
2. Stop exporting democracy. Make it truly work at home first.
3. Mind our own business, from political reforms to human rights (Is American “Human Rights” a Lie?).

Here is a recent news story: Secretary of State Reveals How Deadly Capitol Riot Has ‘Tarnished’ U.S. Diplomacy.

Really?

For China at least, American democracy was dead in 2003, when America launched the Iraq War (Introduction to “History 2.0”). The Capitol riot did not really create any new problem for America, but revealed a profound one: The American carnage was essentially the same as the American Revolution! For more, read American Carnage vs. American Revolution.

Now, some specific advice on Russia and China, respectively.

6.1 On Russia

1. Better understand Russia and stop vilifying President Putin!
2. Accept Russia as a world power. Russia wants, and deserves, more space as its sphere of influence. Ukraine and Syria are the least America should yield to Russia.
3. Forget about Crimea – It was Russia’s and it is Russia’s!
4. Scale back in East Europe! A simple question: what if Russia moved to our front door (e.g., Cuba)? We all know the answer: Wikipedia – Cuban Missile Crisis.
5. Lift all the sanctions against Russia as soon as possible. They do not work, as Russia has a huge back door to China to get everything it needs.

6.2 On China

1. Better understand China and stop demonizing the CPC (Communist Party of China).
2. Accept China as a world power. China wants, and deserves, more space as its sphere of influence. East Asia is the least America should yield to China.
3. Forget about Hong Kong or Xinjiang. They are China’s domestic affairs, just like Killing of George Floyd and American carnage: how Trump’s mob ran riot in the Capitol are America’s domestic affairs.
4. End the trade war – It is hurting America more than China.

7. Closing

Not only do I wish President Biden well (An Open Letter to President Biden), I have also spelled out the path to historic greatness for him (Two Solutions for America).

But will he listen?

We will have a very good indication after his first 100 days in office.

Meanwhile, read my new book forthcoming (Introduction to “History 2.0”).

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