Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 14February 2021

Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

The news posted last week for the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some important articles are summarized here. The articles are more or less organized with general virus news and anecdotes first, then stories from around the US, followed by an increased number of items from other countries around the globe. Economic news related to COVID-19 is found here.

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Summary:

All the important US Covid demographic metrics are falling, and in some cases quite dramatically. This week’s new cases were down 19.4% from last week’s, and down 62.3% from the second week of January; the 7 day average of new cases is now the lowest since November 4th, but it’s also higher than every 7 day period before that date. Illustrative of the decline in new cases was a Thursday headline that new cases had topped 100,000 for the first time this week; that contrasts with new cases topping 300,000 on January 8th.

With the drop in new cases, Americans hospitalized with the virus is also near a three month low, & Covid patients in intensive care units is the lowest since November 17th. US Covid deaths have also turned decidedly lower, with the 7-day death average down 16.1% from a week ago and down 24.6% from the late January peak; however, Covid-19 still remains the leading cause of death in the US by some measure.

Bloomberg reports that 52 million doses of a vaccine have been administered in the US since December, without saying how many have received the required two doses; furthermore, another 28,000,000 or so of us have already been infected, with the actual number probably much higher. Combined, those figures suggest that roughly a quarter of us should have some degree of immunity to the virus and the most common mutant strains that are circulating. As those numbers rise, that should slowly begin to reduce the population transmission risk for additional spread. The problem will then become the more infectious strains that are still circulating, largely without being detected; as of Thursday, 981 cases of the UK strain, known as B.1.1.7, were confirmed in 37 states; that’s up from 471 at the end of January. While those counts seem small, they may just represent the tip of the iceberg, since just a small percentage of those who test positive are having the virus sequenced to determine if they’ve contracted a mutant strain.

The chart below from WorldoMeter shows the daily number of new cases for the US, updated through 06 February.

According to Johns Hopkins (graph below), new cases globally are continuing to decline.

Also, Johns Hopkins has a graph for global deaths (below). The slight downturn in global deaths is now seen by visual examination of this graphic.

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Calculated Risk has stopped posting the graphic on testing data. The last one we reported is the 30 January graphic:

Of course, Steven Hansen summarizes and links the latest news related to the pandemic every day, 7 days a week, plus displays over a dozen important graphics updated at least daily. The most recent article at the time this is published: 13 February 2021 Coronavirus Charts and News: Chinese Refused To Share Raw Data Which Might Add To Understanding The Pandemic Origin. U.K. Coronavirus Variant Likely To Sweep The World..

This article leads the daily newsletter from Global Economic Intersection every day. Newsletter subscription is free.

Here are the rest of the articles for the past week reviewed and summarized:

Porous materials unfavorable for coronavirus survival– As COVID-19 spreads via respiratory droplets, researchers have become increasingly interested in the drying of droplets on impermeable and porous surfaces. Surfaces that accelerate evaporation can decelerate the spread of the COVID-19 virus. In Physics of Fluids, by AIP Publishing, researchers from IIT Bombay show a droplet remains liquid for a much shorter time on a porous surface, making it less favorable to survival of the virus. The researchers found the coronavirus can survive for four days on glass, seven days on plastic, and seven days on stainless steel. But on paper and cloth, the virus survived for only three hours and two days, respectively. “Based on our study, we recommend that furniture in hospitals and offices, made of impermeable material, such as glass, stainless steel, or laminated wood, be covered with porous material, such as cloth, to reduce the risk of infection upon touch,” said author Sanghamitro Chatterjee. Similarly, the researchers suggest seats in public places, such as parks, shopping malls, restaurants, and railway or airport waiting halls, could be covered with cloth to alleviate the risk of disease spread. For both impermeable and porous surfaces, 99.9% of the droplet’s liquid content is evaporated within the first few minutes. After this initial state, a microscopic thin residual liquid film remains on the exposed solid parts, where the virus can still survive. The researchers discovered the evaporation of this remnant thin film is much faster in the case of porous surfaces as compared to impermeable surfaces. The droplets spread due to capillary action between the liquid near the contact line and the horizontally oriented fibers on the porous surface and the void spaces in porous materials, which accelerates evaporation.

CDC Begins Recommending Wearing Two Masks – Starting Wednesday, the CDC (aka the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) began recommending that Americans wear two masks, or specifically a cloth mask over a medical mask to slow the spread of Covid-19.The guidance followed the release of an agency study (because “scientists”) that found double masking can boost protection from aerosolized particles.Whereas government officials previously said the CDC was waiting to gather evidence on double masking, they now appear to have a greenlight to mandate double-masking. The new study, part of the agency’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, also examined the efficacy of modifications made to improve the fit of a medical mask. Either double masking or tightening a mask’s fit reduced exposure to aerosols that could be infectious by about 95%, the research concluded.“These experiments highlight the importance of good fit to maximize mask performance,” the authors wrote.”There are multiple simple ways to achieve better fit of masks to more effectively slow the spread of Covid-19.”The findings came from experiments done by the agency last month, which tested how double masking and changes to improve mask fit worked amid coughing, which the researchers simulated. Knotting the loops of a surgical mask and tucking in extra fabric near the face was found to reduce exposure, as was wearing a cloth mask over a surgical mask.

Cancer drug could reduce COVID-19 deaths, study finds – Biotech company Veru announced Tuesday that the results of a COVID-19 treatment trial indicate that one of the firm’s anti-cancer treatments was effective in reducing the risk of death among coronavirus patients. The company pointed to the results of a double-blind study involving 40 hospital patients, some of whom were given the company’s VERU-111 anti-cancer treatment and others who were given a placebo, which found the drug was responsible for an 82 percent “relative reduction” in the rate of respiratory failure or death. “We are very pleased with the results of our Phase 2 trial, which demonstrated clinically meaningful reductions in relevant endpoints, including respiratory failure, days in the ICU and on mechanical ventilation and patient mortality. We believe VERU-111 has significant potential in treating COVID-19, both as a broad-spectrum antiviral and an anti-inflammatory agent,” said Veru’s CEO Mitchell Steiner. “Due to the urgency of the global pandemic and need for more effective treatment options for patients, we are duty-bound to pursue this indication, even though it has not been the primary focus of Veru,” he continued. The company will now pursue a phase 3 trial of the treatment in the hopes of general approval for use later this year, Steiner told CNBC. The Food and Drug Administration approved the antiviral drug remdesivir for general use to treat COVID-19 in October, just weeks after former President Trump was given a dose of the drug at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center after he tested positive for the coronavirus. More than 464,000 people in the U.S. have died from COVID-19 since the pandemic began in early 2020. The rate of new cases has sharply declined across the country following its peak in early January, but has yet to fall back to the same levels of new infections the country saw for most of last year.

Cancer Drug Shows Potent Activity in the Lab Against SARS-CoV-2, Including B.1.1.7 Variant – Scientists at UC San Francisco’s Quantitative Bioscience Institute (QBI) and the Icahn School of Medicine at Mt. Sinai (ISMMS) in New York have shown that plitidepsin (Aplidin), a drug approved by the Australian Regulatory Agency for the treatment of multiple myeloma, has potent antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. In laboratory experiments reported in Science on Jan. 25, plitidepsin, a compound originally discovered in a Mediterranean sea squirt, was 27.5-fold more potent against SARS-CoV-2 than remdesivir, a drug that received FDA emergency use authorization in 2020 for the treatment of COVID-19. In addition, in two preclinical models of COVID-19, plitidepsin showed a 100-fold reduction in viral replication in the lungs and demonstrated an ability to reduce lung inflammation. The studies were led by the laboratories of Nevan Krogan, PhD, director of the QBI, part of the UCSF School of Pharmacy, and Adolfo Garc’a-Sastre, PhD, professor of microbiology and director of the Global Health and Emerging Pathogens Institute at ISMMS. In 2020, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Krogan, also a senior investigator at Gladstone Institutes, brought many UCSF labs together in the QBI Coronavirus Research Consortium (QCRG), which played a major role in the new research. In a separate publication posted to the bioRxiv preprint server, the UCSF and ISMMS researchers, in collaboration with Greg Towers, PhD, and Clare Jolly, PhD, of University College London, show that plitidepsin has antiviral activity against the recently identified B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2 which is comparable to the drug’s activity against the original SARS-CoV-2 strain. Additionally, they found plitidepsin to be about 100 times more potent than remdesivir in human epithelial cells.

Nasodine antiseptic nasal spray shows potential antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2 – A team of international scientists has recently investigated the efficacy of PVP-1, a complex of polyvinylpyrrolidone and iodine, in preventing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Using in vitro cell culture settings, the scientists observe that PVP-1 formulation used in a commercially available nasal spray (Nasodine) readily inactivates SARS-CoV-2 within a short period of time. The study is currently available on the bioRxiv* preprint server. Because viral shedding from the nasal cavity and upper respiratory tract is the primary mode of infection transmission, early therapeutic elimination of SARS-CoV-2 in the nasal cavity can significantly reduce the risk of person-to-person transmission as well as propagation of the infection to the lower respiratory tract and other organs. In the current study, the scientists have examined the efficacy of PVP-1 in eliminating SARS-CoV-2 infection by conducting a series of in vitro experiments. PVP-1 is known to have a broad range of antimicrobial effects and is routinely used as a skin and mucous membrane disinfectant. In this study, the scientists have specifically evaluated the efficacy of commercially available Nasodine antiseptic nasal spray, which contains a clinically approved formulation of 0.5% of PVP-1.

Study shows anti-inflammatory drug reduces risk of death in hospitalized COVID-19 patients – An anti-inflammatory drug used to treat rheumatoid arthritis reduces the risk of death in hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19, especially when combined with the steroid dexamethasone, according to results of a study released Thursday. Tocilizumab, an intravenous drug manufactured by Roche, was also shown to reduce the need for a mechanical ventilator and shorten the length of hospitalization. The preliminary results came from the Recovery trial at the University of Oxford, which has been studying various potential treatments for COVID-19 since March. Tocilizumab, sold under the brand name Actemra, was added to the trial in April for patients with COVID-19 who required oxygen and had evidence of inflammation. “Previous trials of tocilizumab had shown mixed results, and it was unclear which patients might benefit from the treatment,” Peter Horby, a professor at the University of Oxford and joint chief investigator for the Recovery trial, said in a statement. “We now know that the benefits of tocilizumab extend to all COVID patients with low oxygen levels and significant inflammation. The double impact of dexamethasone plus tocilizumab is impressive and very welcome,” Horby said. The trial tested 2,022 patients who were randomly allocated tocilizumab, and compared the results to 2,094 who received standard care. According to researchers, 82 percent of the test subjects were also taking a steroid such as dexamethasone, which has also been found to reduce hospitalization in people with severe COVID-19. The study found 29 percent of the patients in the tocilizumab group died within 28 days, compared with 33 percent of patients in the usual care group. According to the researchers, the difference means that for every 25 patients treated with tocilizumab, one additional life would be saved. However, the drug also increased the probability of being discharged alive within 28 days from 47 percent to 54 percent. While there was no evidence the drug had any effect on the chances of successfully ending ventilation, the treatment significantly reduced the chances of progressing to a ventilator or death, from 38 percent to 33 percent. The preliminary results will be submitted to a peer-reviewed medical journal shortly.

Study: People with dementia more likely to contract coronavirus, be hospitalized – Older Americans suffering from dementia are at an increased risk of contracting the coronavirus and being hospitalized with serious complications from the resulting disease, according to a new study. The study, commissioned by Case Western University, found that Americans with dementia are twice as likely to contract the coronavirus and experience severe complications from COVID-19 as people who do not have dementia. “It’s pretty convincing in suggesting that there’s something about dementia that makes you more vulnerable,” Kristine Yaffe, a professor of neurology and psychiatry at the University of California, San Francisco who was not involved in the study, told The New York Times, referring to the research. An estimated 5.8 million Americans age 65 and older and 50 million people worldwide are living with Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias, the study found, noting that many of the common comorbidities in patients with dementia are also “demonstrated risk factors for COVIDâ€19 and are associated with worse clinical outcomes.” Among patients with dementia, Black people were twice as likely to contract the coronavirus than their white counterparts. Patients with dementia who contracted the virus had significantly worse outcomes, including long hospital stays and higher death rates, than patients suffering from dementia or COVIDâ€19 alone. “One of the things that has come from this COVID situation is that we should be pointing out these disparities,” Maria Carrillo, chief science officer of the Alzheimer’s Association, told the Times. A separate study released in November found that the coronavirus can have mental health impacts on patients years after they have recovered.

Past coronavirus infections don’t seem to help with SARS-CoV-2 While the SARS-CoV-2 virus is new to humans, coronaviruses in general aren’t. There have been earlier members of this group of viruses that have raised pandemic fears, while another group regularly circulates widely in humans, causing symptoms of the common cold. Early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, there were some indications that prior exposure to cold-causing viruses could produce a degree of protection against the disease. But back in December, researchers published results indicating that any cross-reactivity against related viruses by T cells was likely to be ineffective. Now, additional results have been published that indicate antibodies raised against cold viruses fail to neutralize SARS-CoV-2. The SARS-CoV-2 virus has a number of features that distinguish it from other coronaviruses that have circulated within humans. But it also has plenty of things in common, like its use of RNA as a genetic material and the general layout of its genome. Some of its genes have also picked up very few changes over the course of evolution. As a result, there are some stretches of genes that are identical in cold viruses and SARS-CoV-2. This revelation turned out to be relevant to a study we covered last year. In that work, researchers were looking at the response to SARS-CoV-2 within T cells, specialized immune cells that do things like assist antibody-producing cells or kill off cells that are already infected. T cells act by recognizing short pieces of foreign proteins, such as those made by viruses. As you’d expect, the number of T cells that respond to SARS-CoV-2 went up after infection. The surprise was that they went up from a non-zero level. In other words, even before people were exposed to SARS-CoV-2, their immune system had T cells that could react to its proteins. This turned out to be mediated by short pieces of the viral proteins that were identical in both cold viruses and SARS-CoV-2. So, it’s possible that these T cells could provide a small degree of immune protection against the new virus – which in turn could potentially help explain some of the differences in the severity of COVID-19 symptoms.

Signs that SARS-CoV-2 is evolving to avoid immune responses. Over the summer, you could almost hear a sigh of relief rising from the portion of the research community that was tracking the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Viruses, especially those new to their hosts, often pick up mutations that help them adapt to their new habitat, or they evade drugs or immune attacks. But SARS-CoV-2 seemed to be picking up mutations at a relatively sedate pace, in part because its virus-copying enzymes had a feature that lets them correct some errors.But suddenly, new variants appear to be everywhere, and a number of them appear to increase the threat posed by the virus. A new study helps explain the apparent difference: while new base changes in the virus’s genetic material remain rare, some deletions of several bases appear to have evolved multiple times, indicating that evolution was selecting for them. The research team behind this new work found evidence that these changes alter how the immune system can respond to the virus. The researchers’ interest in deletions started with their involvement with an immunocompromised cancer patient, who held off the infection for over two months without being able to clear the virus. Samples obtained from late in the infection revealed two different virus strains that each had a deletion in the gene encoding the spike protein that SARS-CoV-2 uses to attach to and enter cells.When the researchers searched a database of other viral genomes, they found six other cases where the same or similar deletions seem to have evolved in other patients. This caused them to go back and look at a collection of nearly 150,000 viral genomes. They found that over 1,100 of them carried deletions in the spike protein. But critically, they found that these weren’t distributed randomly. Ninety percent of the deletions clustered into four distinct areas of the spike gene.That could be for one of two reasons. It’s possible that these viruses are related by common descent and all inherited the same ancestral deletion. Or these deletions could be useful from an evolution perspective, and so whenever they happen to occur, they end up being kept around. If these deletions are being kept around, then the obvious question is “Why?” To find out, the researchers figured out how each of the deletions would alter the spike protein produced by the mutant form of the gene. They then compared this information to what we know about the structure and function of the spike protein. Again, so far, there’s no indication that any of these strains can evade the immunity built up by earlier infection or one of the vaccines currently in use. But the results make clear that the virus is evolving in response to the immune system’s reaction to it, and we can’t guarantee that further changes won’t make COVID-19 harder for our immune systems to keep at bay.

UK strain doubling every 10 days in US: study The more transmissible COVID-19 variant that originated in the U.K. is doubling here in the U.S. every 10 days, according to a new study published Sunday. The study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, also found the variant to be up to 35 to 45 percent more transmissible than the COVID-19 strain first circulating in the U.S. “Unless decisive and immediate public health action is taken, the increased transmission rate of these lineages and resultant higher effective reproduction number of SARSCoV-2 will likely have devastating consequences to COVID-19 mortality and morbidity in the U.S. in a few months, if decisive action is not immediately taken,” the authors write. Dozens of researchers from both academia, public, and private health sectors sequenced and analyzed positive COVID-19 samples across the U.S. to better gauge how contagious the variant from the U.K. is and how fast it grows. For the study, the strain from the U.K. was represented by a proxy testing anomaly, similar in genetic structure to the mutation first seen in England. Approximately half a million samples were tested in Helix Industries since July 2020. Scientists began specifically looking at the strain from the U.K. in early October 2020, citing 0.2 percent of daily positive COVID-19 samples with a similar genetic structure seen in the spike protein of the mutation from the U.K. Further analysis revealed that researchers found that during January 2021, the nationwide proportion of COVID-19 tests that matched the strain from the U.K., known as B.1.1.7, increased from an average of 0.8 percent in the first week to 4.2 percent in the last week. These results imply a high level of transmission and growth of the virus within a population. “Given the current trajectory of B.1.1.7 in the U.S., it is almost certainly destined to become the dominant SARS-CoV-2 lineage by March, 2021 across many U.S. states,” the report reads. Based on the sample of positive tests sequenced in the study, the variant from the U.K. was detected in the U.S. multiple times in November 2020, with two prominent groups detected in Florida and California. Cases in other states, including North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas, led researchers to believe that B.1.1.7 has likely been spreading throughout the country since late 2020. Despite a lower frequency of occurrence in the U.S. as opposed to some European countries, the B.1.1.7 is expected to grow, researchers say, into the dominant COVID-19 strain in the U.S. based on its current movements – – mainly driven by community spread.

New variants threaten to reverse progress against COVID-19 The rise of more contagious variants of the coronavirus are threatening an encouraging trend of falling COVID-19 cases across the country. New U.S. cases of COVID-19 on Sunday dropped below 100,000 for the first time since November, a hopeful sign after a brutal post-Thanksgiving period that saw cases, hospitalizations and deaths spike. Health officials are urging the public and governors not to ease up on precautions despite the somewhat improved situation, given that measures like wearing a mask and distancing from others are even more important when the virus is more contagious. In addition, while the trend is going in a positive direction, the levels of cases, hospitalizations and deaths are still much higher than either of the previous peaks in the spring and summer of last year. There were 96,000 new cases on Sunday, according to the COVID Tracking Project, down from a peak of almost 300,000 in early January. But that is still far above any level experts would consider a goal. It is still higher than the peak of cases over the summer, for example, which was about 75,000 cases per day. Roughly 3,000 people are dying every day from the virus, and about 80,000 are in the hospital with COVID-19. Still, the positive trend has spurred some governors to start loosening restrictions. In Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) last week lifted the mask mandate and distancing restrictions on restaurants and bars. While that is perhaps the most drastic recent move, other states have been taking more gradual steps to ease back. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) announced that indoor dining can return at 25 percent capacity in New York City ahead of Valentine’s Day. Asked about Iowa’s decision, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky on Monday urged states not to lift precautions, in part citing the rise of new variants of the virus. “We still have this emerging threat of variants, and I would just simply discourage any of those activities,” she said. “We really need to keep all of the mitigation measures at play here if we’re really going to get control of this pandemic.” Highlighting the threat of a more contagious variant of the virus first identified in the United Kingdom, a study released Sunday found that the variant is doubling every 10 days in the U.S. and will likely become the dominant strain in many states by March. Because the variant is 35 to 45 percent more transmissible, experts warn its rise could lead to a sharp spike in cases and hospitalizations. “We certainly do expect to see a spike in cases” on the current trajectory, said Karthik Gangavarapu, a researcher at the Scripps Research Institute and one of the authors of the study. “We still don’t know how much of a spike it will be.” Ramping up genomic sequencing to keep track of the prevalence of different variants, as well as additional contact tracing efforts from local public health departments aimed at slowing the spread of the U.K. variant, could both help in the fight, Gangavarapu said. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, issued a warning by pointing to the example of Ireland, which was hit hard by the new variant. It peaked at 132 new cases per 100,000 people in early January. “US has never seen numbers like that. Only the Dakotas had infection rates that high,” Jha wrote on Twitter.

Tweaking COVID vaccines to fight variants won’t require big trials, FDA says — With concerning coronavirus variants erupting around the world, the US Food and Drug Administration is ironing out how to rapidly review vaccine tweaks that better protect against the mutants – and the regulatory agency is turning to its experience with annual flu shots to do so.In a statement late Thursday, the regulatory agency said it is actively hashing out what kind of “streamlined” clinical data makers of authorized COVID-19 vaccines could submit. The agency expects to have a draft of its guidance in the next few weeks. The announcement suggests that makers of authorized vaccines will not be required to submit reams of data from large, months-long clinical trials, as they did for their initial authorizations. Still, data on any altered vaccine – however pared down – would still have to be enough to convince FDA scientists that a next-generation shot is safe and effective against variants. Vaccine alterations may include changes to the initial vaccine design or additions of new vaccine components, the FDA said. So far, the FDA has issued emergency use authorizations for two COVID-19 vaccines, an mRNA-based vaccine made by Moderna and another by partners Pfizer and BioNTech. (The FDA is now reviewing an EUA application for a third candidate, made by Johnson & Johnson, which is a non-replicating adenovirus-based vaccine.) Both mRNA vaccines showed around 95 percent efficacy in massive international Phase III trials. However, those trials were conducted prior to the rise of concerning variants, some of which appear to be able to evade immune responses. Early clinical data does indeed suggest that vaccine efficacy will be reduced by the currently emerging variants – though not eliminated entirely.

BioNTech-Pfizer COVID vaccine effective against 2 variants – A lab study has found the vaccine effective against UK and South Africa variants. German Health Minister Jens Spahn has voiced his confidence in the EU’s three approved vaccines.A peer review has confirmed that the BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine is effective against two variants of the coronavirus, the companies announced on Monday.The review, which was published in the journal Nature Medicine, backed the results of a study completed by Pfizer and the University of Texas in late January.When the study was originally released, BioNTech and Pfizer said its finding suggested that no newvaccine would be necessary to fight coronavirus mutations first discovered in the United Kingdom and South Africa.Nevertheless, the continuous transformation of the deadly virus makes clinical data and constant observation imperative. Experts say that it is not a foregone conclusion that vaccines currently in use will remain effective against possible new variants of the virus in the future.On Monday, German Health Minister Jens Spahn voiced confidence in the effectiveness of all three vaccines approved by the European Union. It followed the South African government’s announcement that it would suspend its planned rollout of the AstraZeneca vaccine.South Africa justified the decision by pointing to the vaccine’s low effectiveness against mild and moderate infection stemming from the B.1351 variant, which is currently dominant in the country. Spahn emphasized that the three EU-approved vaccines exhibited high efficacy against serious infection.

AstraZeneca’s Vaccine Does Not Work Well Against Virus Variant in South Africa – The New York Times -South Africa halted use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford coronavirus vaccine on Sunday after evidence emerged that the vaccine did not protect clinical trial volunteers from mild or moderate illness caused by the more contagious virus variant that was first seen there. The findings were a devastating blow to the country’s efforts to combat the pandemic.Scientists in South Africa said on Sunday that a similar problem held for people who had been infected by earlier versions of the coronavirus: The immunity they acquired naturally did not appear to protect them from mild or moderate cases when they were reinfected by the variant, known as B.1.351.The developments, coming nearly a week after a million doses of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine arrived in South Africa, were an enormous setback for the country, where more than 46,000 people are known to have died from the virus.They were also another sign of the dangers posed by new mutations in the coronavirus. The B.1.351 variant has spread to at least 32 countries, including the United States.The number of cases evaluated as part of the studies outlined by South African scientists on Sunday were low, making it difficult to pinpoint just how effective or not the vaccine might be against the variant.And because the clinical trial participants who were evaluated were relatively young and unlikely to become severely ill, it was impossible for the scientists to determine if the variant interfered with the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine’s ability to protect against severe Covid-19, hospitalizations or deaths.The scientists said, however, that they believed the vaccine might protect against more severe cases, based on the immune responses detected in blood samples from people who were given it. If further studies show that to be the case, South African health officials will consider resuming use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine, they said.The new research findings have not been published in a scientific journal. But the discovery that the AstraZeneca-Oxford product showed minimal efficacy in preventing mild and moderate cases of the new variant added to the mounting evidence that B.1.351 makes current vaccines less effective. Pfizer and Moderna have both said that preliminary laboratory studies indicate that their vaccines, while still protective, are less effective against B.1.351. Novavax and Johnson & Johnson have also sequenced test samples from their clinical trial participants in South Africa, where B.1.351 caused the vast majority of cases, and both reported lower efficacy there than in the United States. “These results are very much a reality check,”

Covid vaccine: J&J CEO says people may get annual shots for the next several years -People may need to get vaccinated against Covid-19 annually, just like seasonal flu shots, over the next several years, Johnson & Johnson CEO Alex Gorsky told CNBC on Tuesday. “Unfortunately, as [the virus] spreads it can also mutate,” he told CNBC’s Meg Tirrell during a Healthy Returns Spotlight event. “Every time it mutates, it’s almost like another click of the dial so to speak where we can see another variant, another mutation that can have an impact on its ability to fend off antibodies or to have a different kind of response not only to a therapeutic but also to a vaccine.” Public health officials and infectious disease experts have said there is a high likelihood that Covid-19 will become an endemic disease, meaning it will become present in communities at all times, though likely at lower levels than it is now. Health officials will have to continuously watch for new variants of the virus, so scientists can produce vaccines to fight them, medical experts say. Gorsky’s comment came after J&J said it applied for an emergency use authorization from the Food and Drug Administration for its coronavirus vaccine. Unlike Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines, which require two doses given about three to four weeks apart, J&J’s only requires one dose, easing logistics for health-care providers. U.S. officials and Wall Street analysts are eagerly anticipating the authorization of J&J’s vaccine, which could happen as early as this month. President Joe Biden is trying to pick up the pace of vaccinations in the U.S. and experts say his administration will need an array of drugs and vaccines to defeat the virus, which has killed more than 450,000 Americans over the last year, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The Department of Health and Human Services announced in August that it reached a deal with Janssen, J&J’s pharmaceutical subsidiary, worth approximately $1 billion for 100 million doses of its vaccine. The deal gives the federal government the option to order an additional 200 million doses, according to the announcement. Gorsky told CNBC that the company’s first priority is to work with the FDA toward U.S. authorization. He said J&J is working “full speed” on vaccine manufacturing, adding the company is “extremely confident” it will meet its target to deliver 100 million doses of its Covid vaccine to the U.S. by the end of June. “We will meet our commitments and at the same time we’re doing everything we possibly can to safely and effectively accelerate” production, he said, adding people are “highly anticipating” being able to get a single shot against the virus. J&J is also continuing work on a two-dose coronavirus vaccine, Gorsky said. The company expects two-shot vaccine data from clinical trials in the second half of 2021, he said.

One dose of COVID-19 vaccine provokes strong immune response in those previously infected -Although clinical trial data are encouraging, real-world evidence with regard to the COVID-19 vaccine remains scarce. In particular, response to the vaccine among those previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 is still not completely understood. Researchers from Bar-Ilan University and Ziv Medical Center now report preliminary evidence that people previously infected with the virus responded very strongly to one dose of the Pfizer vaccine, regardless of when they were infected and whether or not they had detectable antibodies against COVID-19 prior to receiving the vaccine. Their study, published on February 11, 2021 in the journal Eurosurveillance, was conducted on a cohort of 514 staff members at Ziv Medical Center. Seventeen of them were infected with COVID-19 anytime between one and ten months before receiving the first dose of the vaccine. Antibody levels of the entire cohort were measured prior to vaccination and thereafter to determine response to the vaccine. The response among those previously infected was so effective that it opens the debate as to whether one dose of the vaccine may suffice. “This finding can help countries make informed decisions regarding vaccine policy – for instance, whether those previously infected should be vaccinated in priority and, if so, with how many doses,” says Prof. Michael Edelstein, of the Azrieli Faculty of Medicine of Bar-Ilan University, who led the study. “It also offers reassurance that not having detectable antibodies after being infected does not necessarily mean that protection following infection is lost.” The research also provided evidence that immune response was similar across multi-ethnic groups. Ziv Medical Center, where the study was conducted, is staffed by a workforce comprised of Jews, Arabs and Druze, among others. Members of each of these groups responded very similarly to the first dose of the vaccine, a welcome finding considering that the virus itself is known to affect some groups more than others.

Fully vaccinated people can skip Covid quarantines, CDC says – People who have been fully vaccinated against coronavirus — right now that means with two doses of either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccine — can skip quarantine if they are exposed to someone infected with the virus, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday. That doesn’t mean they should stop taking precautions, the CDC noted in updated guidance. It’s just not necessary for them to quarantine. “Fully vaccinated persons who meet criteria will no longer be required to quarantine following an exposure to someone with COVID-19,” the CDC said in updates to its web page with guidance on vaccination. “Vaccinated persons with an exposure to someone with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 are not required to quarantine if they meet all of the following criteria,” the CDC added. The criteria: They must be fully vaccinated — having had both shots with at least two weeks having passed since the second shot. That’s because it takes two weeks to build full immunity after the second dose of vaccine. But the CDC says it’s not known how long protection lasts, so people who had their last shot three months ago or more should still quarantine if they are exposed. They also should quarantine if they show symptoms, the CDC said. “This recommendation to waive quarantine for people with vaccine-derived immunity aligns with quarantine recommendations for those with natural immunity, which eases implementation,” the CDC said. The agency will update guidance as more is learned. People who have been vaccinated should still watch for symptoms for 14 days after they have been exposed to someone who is infected, the CDC said. And everyone, vaccinated or not, needs to follow all other precautions to prevent the spread of the virus, the CDC said. This is not least because it’s possible even vaccinated people could harbor the virus in their noses and throats, and pass it to others. “At this time, vaccinated persons should continue to follow current guidance to protect themselves and others, including wearing a mask, staying at least 6 feet away from others, avoiding crowds, avoiding poorly ventilated spaces, covering coughs and sneezes, washing hands often, following CDC travel guidance, and following any applicable workplace or school guidance, including guidance related to personal protective equipment use or SARS-CoV-2 testing,” the agency said. Vaccines prevent symptomatic illness but they have not yet been shown to prevent asymptomatic illness, the CDC noted. While people with no symptoms can spread coronavirus, the CDC said, “symptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission is thought to have a greater role in transmission than purely asymptomatic transmission.”.

Why do US health care workers continue to refuse vaccination against COVID-19? – In January, when COVID-19 vaccines were first rolled out among US health care workers, news stories quickly surfaced with reports that large numbers of health care workers were refusing to be vaccinated. In a press briefing on January 4, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine announced that roughly 60 percent of the state’s nursing home workers refused the first round of vaccinations. Other areas reported a similar phenomenon. In Los Angeles County, between 20 and 40 percent of all health care workers refused the vaccine when first available, and 50 percent in neighboring Riverside County refused. Dr. Jeremy Boal, the chief clinical officer at the Mount Sinai Hospital system in NYC, told the Gothamist in early January that across the eight hospitals in the system, vaccine acceptance ranged from 25 to 65 percent. The trend of vaccine skepticism among health care workers is especially dangerous because these workers are in more frequent contact with both COVID-19 patients and patients who are more vulnerable to deadly COVID-19 complications. Health care workers also play a crucial role in influencing the general population to accept the vaccine. Updated data from the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) COVID-19 vaccine monitor shows that compliance with the COVID-19 vaccine is increasing among health care workers as well as the general population. However, health care workers are still accepting vaccination at alarmingly low rates. As of January 27, 32 percent of surveyed health care workers say they have received at least the first dose and 26 percent say they plan to receive it as soon as they can. Twenty-eight percent state they want to “wait-and-see,” while 9 percent say they will never get it. Of those refusing or delaying vaccination, 68 percent cited fear of long-term side effects as their primary concern. According to the KFF vaccine monitor, despite high levels of vaccine hesitancy, health care workers are still vaccinated or plan to be vaccinated at higher rates than the general population. Fifty-eight percent of surveyed health care workers have been vaccinated or plan to become vaccinated as soon as possible compared to 47 percent of the surveyed general population. Another survey by the non-profit group Surgo Ventures, focused solely on health care workers, allows for a more detailed analysis. At the time of the survey, 50 percent of respondents had been offered the vaccine and, across all groups, an average of 15 percent had refused vaccination. The group most likely to refuse the vaccine were allied health professionals, with a refusal rate of 22 percent. According to the Surgo study, 31 percent of those who refused the vaccine stated they were concerned about lack of evidence and safety of the vaccine. Another 24 percent had concerns about long-term side effects of vaccination. Sixteen percent felt the process of vaccine research and rollout was too rushed, and 12 percent stated they wanted to wait to observe side effects or issues in others.

Vaccines Alone Are Not Enough to Beat COVID – Scientific American – The world’s attention is rightly focused on news of COVID-19 vaccine updates, from eligibility to supply. But we will make a critical error if we ignore the need for treatments as well as vaccines. Vaccines may not reach everyone for many years. Vaccines will not protect everyone. And as infection surges threaten to overwhelm hospitals and nursing homes, immediate remedies are needed. So, it is vitally important we continue to research treatments to limit and cure COVID-19.Consider the flu, which is targeted annually with widely available and effective vaccines. But since no vaccine is perfect, there remains a significant need for flu therapies such as Tamiflu and Relenza because these drugs prevent hospitalizations and save lives. We need Tamiflu-like and Relenza-like drugs for COVID-19. To date, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has only fully approved one treatment, intravenous remdesivir, for hospitalized patients. The FDA has also approved other intravenous therapies including convalescent plasma; a monoclonal antibody drug calledbamlanivimab; and a cocktail of the monoclonal antibodies casirivimab and imdevimab for outpatient care under emergency use authorization (EUA). While these drugs can be helpful, their requirement for intravenous administration severely hampers their widespread use. Because EUAs are issued during an emergency, the data for drug risks and benefits are much less than required for full FDA approval. The widespread and uncontrolled use of numerous EUA drugs has made it difficult to perform proper randomized clinical trials for other new experimental treatments, because it is unethical to ask a patient to participate in a clinical trial when they may or may not receive an EUA-approved treatment.The overuse of EUAs makes it difficult or impossible to know if these therapies truly are actually effective and safe. What is badly needed is more randomized clinical trials.To accelerate the discovery of essential new treatments, the U.S. government needs to commit to supporting and coordinating the research. I am encouraged by President Biden’s recent executive ordercalling for more large-scale randomized clinical trials and further studies on the most promising treatments to date. Federal government oversight is required to properly assess the risks and benefits of current EUA treatments individually and in combination because often these drugs are used together.

As Covid-19 Vaccines Raise Hope, Cold Reality Dawns That Illness Is Likely Here to Stay – WSJ – Vaccination drives hold out the promise of curbing Covid-19, but governments and businesses are increasingly accepting what epidemiologists have long warned: The pathogen will circulate for years, or even decades, leaving society to coexist with Covid-19 much as it does with other endemic diseases like flu, measles, and HIV.The ease with which the coronavirus spreads, the emergence of new strains and poor access to vaccines in large parts of the world mean Covid-19 could shift from a pandemic disease to an endemic one, implying lasting modifications to personal and societal behavior, epidemiologists say. “Going through the five phases of grief, we need to come to the acceptance phase that our lives are not going to be the same,” said Thomas Frieden, former director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “I don’t think the world has really absorbed the fact that these are long-term changes.”Endemic Covid-19 doesn’t necessarily mean continuing coronavirus restrictions, infectious-disease experts said, largely because vaccines are so effective at preventing severe disease and slashing hospitalizations and deaths. Hospitalizations have already fallen 30% in Israel after it vaccinated a third of its population. Deaths there are expected to plummet in weeks ahead. But some organizations are planning for a long-term future in which prevention methods such as masking, good ventilation and testing continue in some form. Meanwhile, a new and potentially lucrative Covid-19 industry is emerging quickly, as businesses invest in goods and services such as air-quality monitoring, filters, diagnostic kits and new treatments.

Dozens of people develop rare blood disorder after taking coronavirus vaccines – reports – At least 36 recipients of Pfizer’s and Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccines in the US have developed a rare immune disorder that attacks the blood, according to reports. One patient is dead, and doctors can’t rule out blaming the vaccine. Dr. Gregory Michael – a 56-year-old obstetrician-gynecologist who ran his own practice at Miami Beach’s Mount Sinai Medical Center for more than a decade – died in January of a brain hemorrhage. He had received a dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine two weeks earlier, and immediately developed immune thrombocytopenia, a rare and sometimes fatal blood disorder. Michael is one of at least 36 people to have developed the condition after receiving either Pfizer’s or Moderna’s coronavirus vaccines, according to a New York Times report published on Monday. The cases were self-reported to the government’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) before the end of January, meaning more people could have developed the condition since then.Immune thrombocytopenia is a rare condition affecting an estimated 50,000 people in the US. The condition is caused by the body’s own immune system attacking the platelets that are the component of the blood responsible for clotting. With their blood unable to clot, patients often develop internal or external bruising, which may look like a rash. In several cases like Michael’s, the condition has caused massive hemorrhages or strokes. One patient contacted by the Times suffered heavy vaginal bleeding two weeks after receiving Moderna’s vaccine and required platelet transfusions and steroid treatment to survive. Another woman was hospitalized with bruising and bleeding blisters in her mouth just a day after receiving the same shot. Her condition deteriorated to the point where doctors concerned that a slight knock would trigger fatal bleeding were afraid to move her from the hospital bed.The cases can’t all conclusively be linked with the vaccines, but Dr. James Bussel, a hematologist and expert on the condition, told the Times that an association “is possible.” “Having it happen after a vaccine is well-known and has been seen with many other vaccines,” he said. “Why it happens, we don’t know.”

Man in his 70s collapses and dies just 25 minutes after receiving COVID-19 vaccine in NYC – as officials say he ‘didn’t have allergic reaction An elderly man collapsed and died in New York City on Sunday morning shortly after receiving a COVID-19 vaccine, officials revealed Monday. The man, who was in his 70s, fell as he left Manhattan’s Jacob Javits Convention Center just 25 minutes after receiving his shot, New York State Health Commissioner Dr. Howard Zucker said in a statement. On-site security and first responders raced to his side within seconds, but the man, who has not yet been named, was pronounced dead at a local hospital shortly afterward. It’s currently unclear if the man’s death is linked to the vaccine, with an investigation now underway. Adverse reactions to the vaccine are considered extremely rare, with those few cases most commonly linked to an allergic reaction known as anaphylaxis. ‘Initial indications are that the man did not have any allergic reaction to the vaccine,’ Zucker, however, said in his statement.

Rep. Ron Wright Dies After Contracting Covid-19, First Sitting Congressman Killed by Virus – WSJ – Rep. Ron Wright (R., Texas) died on Sunday after contracting Covid-19, according to his campaign office, becoming the first member of Congress to die from the coronavirus while in office. Mr. Wright’s death at the age of 67 came two weeks after he was admitted to Baylor Hospital in Dallas, his campaign said. He said on Jan. 21 that he had tested positive for Covid-19 after coming into contact with someone who was infected. He was also being treated for cancer, his office said.”Despite years of painful, sometimes debilitating treatment for cancer, Ron never lacked the desire to get up and go to work, to motivate those around him, or to offer fatherly advice,” his campaign said Monday.President Biden, in a statement, said Mr. Wright was a “fighter who battled bravely against both cancer and Covid-19, diseases that our nation will continue working tirelessly every day to defeat in the memory of all those we have lost.”Mr. Wright was starting his second term in Congress. He previously served as a member of the Arlington, Texas, City Council and as chief of staff for former Rep. Joe Barton, a fellow Texas Republican who previously represented the district, south of Dallas.

New COVID-19 cases nationally drop below 100K for first time in 2021 –The number of new daily coronavirus cases has dropped below 100,000 for the first time this year, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Just under 87,000 cases were recorded in the U.S. on Feb. 7. The last time John Hopkins recorded less than 100,000 daily cases was on Nov. 2. Deaths are also down, according to data kept by The New York Times. It recorded 1,301 deaths on Sunday, compared to 4,101 deaths on Jan. 27 and and 4,406 on Jan. 12. Both case numbers and total deaths across the country can vary based on different reporting methods by states and local communities. Cases in the United States shot up in November and December as people moved indoors because of the colder weather, and as families and friends gathered for the Thanksgiving holiday. The number of cases peaked in early January and have been dropping steadily ever since. More and more people are now getting vaccines, though total vaccinations in the country represent a tiny portion of the population. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the U.S. has administered over 41 million doses of the vaccine with more than 9 million people receiving both doses of the vaccines. New variants of the coronavirus have also raised fears that the COVID-19 disease could spread further if those variants take hold before more people are vaccinated. Some of the newer variants of the coronavirus have been found to be much more contagious versions of the virus. The U.S. has so far recorded over 27 million cases of the coronavirus and over 463,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins.

U.S. COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations log biggest weekly drops since pandemic started — – The United States reported a 25% drop in new cases of COVID-19 to about 825,000 last week, the biggest fall since the pandemic started, although health officials said they were worried new variants of the virus could slow or reverse this progress. New cases of the virus have now fallen for four weeks in a row to the lowest level since early November, according to a Reuters analysis of state and county reports. The steepest drop was in California, where cases in the week ended Feb. 7 fell 48%. Only Oregon, Puerto Rico, Arkansas and Vermont saw cases rise. (Open tmsnrt.rs/2WTOZDR in an external browser to see a state-by-state graphic.) At least three new variants of the novel coronavirus are circulating in the United States, including the UK variant B.1.1.7 that is 30% to 40% more contagious, according to researchers. “I’m asking everyone to please keep your guard up,” Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Monday. “The continued proliferation of variants remains a great concern and is a threat that could reverse the recent positive trends we are seeing.” The average number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals fell by 15% to 88,000 last week, also a record percentage drop, according to a Reuters analysis of data from the volunteer-run COVID Tracking Project. It was the lowest average number in hospitals since late November. Death fell 2.5% last week to 22,193. Excluding a backlog of deaths reported by Indiana, fatalities were down 9.5% last week. Deaths are a lagging indicator and usually fall several weeks after cases and hospitalizations drop.

Right-wing US Supreme Court majority again exempts large religious gatherings from COVID-19 safety measures – Late Friday night, the right-wing Supreme Court majority enjoined California from prohibiting indoor church services in “Tier 1” counties where coronavirus infection rates and COVID-19 deaths are highest. The fractured 6 – 3 ruling expands the exception from public health measures first carved out for religious services last November. The ruling comes just as California hospitals are beginning to recover from the holiday surge that caused emergency rooms and intensive care units to overflow, along with morgues, throughout the state. If California were a nation, its nearly 45,000 COVID-19 deaths would rank 15th in the world. Under the ruling, California can continue to bar large, prolonged indoor gatherings such as sporting events, lectures and political meetings, but must allow indoor religious services up to 25 percent of capacity. A prohibition against singing remains in place for the time being. Based on scientific studies and the advice of public health and epidemiological experts, California implemented complex, evolving regulations to restrict activities based on relative risks of transmitting COVID-19 and the resulting toll on the health care system. Since August, all large indoor gatherings have been prohibited within the most at-risk regions. Anticipating “free exercise” challenges, California explicitly provided for unlimited attendance at outdoor religious services and deemed faith-based streaming services “essential.” Nevertheless, a Pentecostal denomination headquartered in San Diego County challenged the regulations, claiming that the regulations prohibiting large indoor gatherings and singing violated the First Amendment when applied to religious services. After the lower courts upheld the state regulations, the Supreme Court declined the church’s request for an injunction last May, with Chief Justice John Roberts casting the decisive vote in favor of the health measures over the dissent of right-wing Associate Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito and Trump appointees Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch. Roberts wrote at the time, “Although California’s guidelines place restrictions on places of worship, … similar or more severe restrictions apply to comparable secular gatherings, including lectures, concerts, movie showings, spectator sports, and theatrical performances, where large groups of people gather in close proximity for extended periods of time. And the Order exempts or treats more leniently only dissimilar activities, such as operating grocery stores, banks, and laundromats, in which people neither congregate in large groups nor remain in close proximity for extended periods.” The same 5 – 4 majority upheld public health regulations against free exercise of religion challenges in several other states, including Nevada and Illinois.

February 8 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations –NOTE: The Covid Tracking Project will end daily updates on March 7th. Heroes that filled a critical void! Quality government data will likely be available soon. From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Feb 8th. “In the U.S., more Americans have now received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 43.1 million doses have been given, according to a state-by-state tally. In the last week, an average of 1.47 million doses per day were administered.”Also check out the graphs at COVID-19 Vaccine Projections The site has several interactive graphs related to US COVID vaccinations including a breakdown of how many have had one shot, and how many have had both shots. The US is now averaging close to 2.0 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases – and percent positive – to do effective test-and-trace. There were 1,434,298 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 77,737 positive tests. This is the fewest daily positive cases since October. Over 23,000 US deaths have been reported in February. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site) This graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.4%. The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending). Both cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are declining from a very high level.

Coronavirus: California passes New York for most COVID-19 deaths -California on Tuesday overtook New York in overall deaths from COVID-19, reclaiming the ignominious title 11 months after the first American to die from the coronavirus was discovered in the Golden State.The death toll in California grew by another 513 on Tuesday, according to data compiled by this news organization, to 44,996 since the onset of the pandemic nearly a year ago. Although New York’s devastating wave last spring has not been replicated anywhere else in the country, California, a state with double the population of New York and 10 million more people than any other state, has recorded its deadliest period of the pandemic over the past two months, reporting deaths at triple the pace of New York in the past week.However, even deaths, considered to be the final lagging indicator of an outbreak, have begun to hit a downturn, now about a month removed from the first signs of cases and hospitalizations leveling off. California’s curve has followed a similar trajectory to the country’s, which has also begun to see diminishing numbers of new cases and deaths, as well as active hospitalizations.In California, the average number of new cases continued to fall Tuesday, after there were 10,913 reported around the state. At approximately 12,320 per day over the past week, California has cut its cases nearly in half from two weeks ago, a 47% decline, but infections are still coming at a rate higher than any point prior to the winter wave. The number of Californians hospitalized with COVID-19 has fallen 35% in the past two weeks to 11,198, as of Monday, its lowest point in over two months but still well above any point prior to Thanksgiving.But California’s death toll has grown by more than 3,100 just in the past week – an average of 445 per day – nearly 20% fewer than two weeks ago but still triple any seven-day period outside of this winter. Two in every five Californians to have perished over the entire pandemic have died since the calendar turned to 2021. Since the new year began, California has recorded more than 18,500 fatalities from COVID-19, compared to just over 7,200 in New York, more than 12,000 in Texas and about 6,500 in Florida – the three states with the next-highest cumulative death tolls (and populations).During April, New York’s deadliest month of the pandemic, it recorded nearly 21,300 casualties, more than the nearly 15,000 lives lost in California last month with about half the population.On a per-capita basis, California comes in below all three of its fellow large states, including a death rate over the course of the pandemic less than half that of New York, which ranks behind only neighboring New Jersey in lives lost per-capita.

Coronavirus updates: California death toll at 45,000, up 15,000 in less than a month – The state on Thursday surpassed 45,000 COVID-19 deaths for the pandemic. The California Department of Public Health reported the official death toll at 45,456 with a single-day increase of 461, slightly below the state’s average of 464 over the past two weeks.The first 15,000 fatalities took more than six months, from March to September. The next 15,000 took a little less than four months, from late September to mid-January.The most recent 15,000 came in just under a month. But on the hopeful side, more than one in 10 Californians have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and CDPH. The state reported Thursday that about 5.29 million total doses have been administered, and the CDC on its data tracker Thursday showed the state of 40 million people surpassing 4 million first doses. Nearly 1 million have had both doses, according to the CDC.The pace has improved from a stumbling start to the rollout. The CDPH data tracker shows California has administered an average of about 1.07 million total doses per week over the past four weeks, including both first and second doses.The state’s infection and hospitalization metrics are also showing vast improvement from the peak of the winter surge in early January.Since then, the two-week daily case rate has fallen from over 40,000 to just over 13,000; test positivity has dropped from 14% to 5.4%; and the number of confirmed COVID-19 patients in hospital beds has cut in half, from nearly 22,000 to about 10,400 as of Thursday’s update from CDPH.

Coronavirus hospitalizations hit lowest level in nearly three months – More than 74,000 people remain in the hospital due to COVID-19 as of Thursday, the lowest level in nearly three months, according to data fromthe COVID Tracking Project.The group recorded approximately 74,225 hospitalizations as of Thursday, making it the third straight day the number has remained below 80,000. The number of patients in intensive care units – 15,190 – is the lowest number recorded by the group since Nov. 17, 2020.The new data marks a promising development from January, which saw the greatest number of COVID-19 fatalities and the highest average number of coronavirus hospitalizations of any month since the pandemic first hit the U.S.According to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, the U.S. had more than 103,000 new coronavirus infections on Thursday, bringing the country total to approximately 27.4 million.The U.S. also had 3,724 additional coronavirus-related deaths reported Thursday, with the total number of fatalities now at more than 475,000. Despite the improving numbers,officials have warned the public and governors not to ease up as there has been a rise in cases of new and more contagious coronavirus variants across the country. The decline in hospitalizations came the same day President Bidenannounced that the U.S. had secured an additional 200 million doses of coronavirus vaccine, finalizing a commitment that was promised last month.

Daily coronavirus cases tip back over 100,000 – Daily new coronavirus cases tipped back over 100,000 on Thursday after having fallen below that threshold for the first time since the fall earlier in the week. The overall trend in recent weeks is still positive, as cases and hospitalizations have fallen from their January highs. But the 103,000 cases on Thursday, as tallied by the COVID Tracking Project, are a reminder that spread of the virus is still at extremely high levels, and more contagious variants threaten to start another surge upward. Cases are down 23 percent from last week and 57 percent from the peak in January. Hospitalizations are down 42 percent from their high-water marks, according to the COVID Tracking Project. But the toll of the virus remains heavy, with about 3,000 people dying every day. Deaths are a lagging indicator, so the drop in cases will take longer to show up there. And the threat of more contagious variants, particularly one first identified in the United Kingdom, known as B.1.1.7, threatens to undo downward trends. MLB releases opening-day schedule ahead of planned full season Coronavirus hospitalizations hit lowest level in nearly three months A race has essentially been set off between the new variants and vaccinations. Experts say the faster people can be vaccinated, the more it will do to prevent a new spike from the variants. Other precautions remain key, including wearing a mask, avoiding indoor gatherings and maintaining distance from others. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday emphasized that it is important to wear a mask that fits well, and said that wearing a cloth mask over a medical procedure mask can significantly reduce transmission.

Coronavirus variant cases have doubled in US since the end of January – The United States has seen cases of coronavirus variants from South Africa, the United Kingdom and Brazil double since the end of January. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated the numbers on Thursday to show 997 reported U.S. cases of the variants. The number of cases reported at the end of January was 471, according to The Associated Press. The rise of new variants is a cause of concern given that they are more contagious. There are 981 reported cases of the U.K. variant across 37 states. The U.K. variant has been shown to spread more quickly and have higher mortality rates, but it is not clear if that is due to the virus itself or external factors. There are 13 reported cases of the South African variant in five states. The South African variant has been a cause of concern as a study has shown it does weaken the efficacy of the coronavirus vaccines, but the vaccines still work against the variant. There are only three reported cases of the Brazil variant in two states. All of these variants can be combated with coronavirus vaccines, along with masks and social distancing. Florida is seeing the most variant cases, while California is recording the second most. The U.S. has imposed restrictions on international travelers such as requiring a negative COVID-19 test before boarding a plane to the country and recommending that travelers quarantine upon arrival until they test negative for the virus.

Coronavirus in Ohio: 3,305 cases, 2,559 deaths reported Friday due to backlog (interactive map) Here is the latest on the coronavirus pandemic in Ohio. This list will be updated after 2 p.m. each day.

• As many as 4,000 previously unreported COVID-19 deaths will be added to the state’s tally in the next week after state officials learned an employee had not been properly reviewing death certificate data.
• The Ohio Department of Health issued guidelines for self-serve buffets and salad bars to reopen Friday.
• Vaccine appointments will be stop and go for weeks, providers say, as the state works to inoculate a pool of about 2.2 million Ohioans.
• Ohio is in phase 1B for COVID-19 vaccinations. That includes people age 65 and older, school employees and people with certain severe congenital and developmental conditions.

At least 934,742 people have been reported to have COVID-19 in Ohio. According to reports, 15,136 have died. Each circle represents total numbers for one county – tap or hover over each one for more details. (interactive map)

February 13 COVID-19 Test Results and Vaccinations – NOTE: The Covid Tracking Project will end daily updates on March 7th. From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Feb 13th. “In the U.S., more Americans have now received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 52 million doses have been given, according to a state-by-state tally. In the last week, an average of 1.64 million doses per day were administered.” Here is the CDC COVID Data Tracker. This site has data on vaccinations, cases and more. The US is now averaging close to 2.0 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases – and percent positive – to do effective test-and-trace. There were 1,743,784 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 90,199 positive tests. Over 42,000 US deaths have been reported in February. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site) This graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations. The dashed line is the previous peak for hospitalizations (almost back to the summer peak level).The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.1%. The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending). Both cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are still above the previous peaks.

Intellectual Property Cause of Covid Death, Genocide – Refusal to temporarily suspend several World Trade Organization (WTO) intellectual property provisions to enable much faster and broader progress in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic should be grounds for International Criminal Court prosecution for genocide. Making life-saving vaccines, medicines and equipment available, freely or affordably, has been crucial for containing the spread of many infectious diseases such as tuberculosis, HIV-AIDS, polio and smallpox. Jonas Salk, who developed the polio vaccine, insisted that it remain patent free. Asked who owned the patent 65 years ago, he replied, “The people I would say. There is no patent. You might as well ask, could you patent the sun?” However, cross-border enforcement of intellectual property rights (IPRs) is relatively recent. The 1994 WTO Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) greatly strengthened and extended intellectual property transnationally. IPRs have effectively denied access to patented formulas and processes except to the highest bidders. Recognising the extent of the pandemic threat, vaccine developers expect to be very profitable, thanks to national and transnational intellectual property laws. Thus, IP has distorted research priorities and discouraged cooperation and knowledge sharing, so essential to progress. As COVID-19 infections and deaths continue to rise alarmingly, rich countries are falling out among themselves, fighting for access to vaccine supplies, as IP profits take precedence over lives and livelihoods. ‘Vaccine nationalism‘ involves cut-throat contests responding to scarcity due to limited output. Facing vaccine wars, multilateral arrangements, such as Covax, have not adequately addressed current challenges. Vaccine nationalism has also meant that among the rich, the powerful – Trump’s US – came first. Consequently, most developing countries and most of their people will have to wait longer than necessary for vaccines, while the powerful and better off secure prior access, regardless of need or urgency.This lethal combination of intellectual property and vaccine warfare is responsible for more avoidable losses of both lives and livelihoods. Developing nations, especially the poorest and most vulnerable, have been left far behind, even in most programmes for COVID-19 prevention, containment, treatment and vaccination.The deadly duo are unnecessarily delaying the end of the pandemic, causing avoidable infections, deaths and related setbacks. World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General (DG) Tedroswarns “the world is on the brink of a catastrophic moral failure … the price of this failure will be paid with lives and livelihoods in the world’s poorest countries”.

China, Russia steal a vaccine diplomacy march – The Covid-19 pandemic has brought about an unprecedented mobilization of advanced biotechnology on a worldwide scale. By any measure, progress in developing, testing and deploying vaccines has proceeded with breathtaking speed. Hardly more than a year after the pandemic started its lethal spread, scores of millions of people are being immunized using a variety of newly-developed vaccines with proven effectiveness against the Covid-19 virus. A technological and logistical basis now being laid will permit rapid responses to mutants as well as to future pandemic threats that may arise.All is not well, however.At present vaccination rates, it could take as long as seven years to reach levels of immunity sufficient to completely eliminate Covid-19’s spread. Production capacities are wholly inadequate to meet the demand, with the lion’s share of vaccines going to wealthy countries while developing countries face less certain fates. Russia and China are rising to the rich versus poor challenge by supplying much-needed vaccines to nations that would otherwise be far down on the global list. While the US and EU remain preoccupied with their own Covid-19 problems, Russian and Chinese companies are forming partnerships with each other and countries around the world.That “vaccine diplomacy” success, however, is already starting to raise concerns in the West. Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine, originally poo-pooed in the West as a mere publicity stunt by President Vladimir Putin, has not only proved to be one of the most effective vaccines – providing over 90% protection – but also is inexpensive and easy to use. Unlike many of other Covid-19 vaccines, Sputnik V can be stored in ordinary refrigerators at between two and eight degrees centigrade. Together, a first and second (booster) dose cost a mere US$20. Sputnik V is currently approved in 18 countries, with vaccinations underway in Bolivia, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Palestine, the UAE, Paraguay, Hungary, Armenia, Serbia, Venezuela and Iran. Mexico plans to administer 7.4 million doses of Sputnik V by March, with at least 16 million doses to follow.Kirill Dmitriev, director of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), the national sovereign wealth fund which has been sponsoring the development and marketing of Sputnik V, emphasized that the Russian government sets a high priority on supplying the home-grown vaccine to developing countries. In order to ensure sufficient vaccine supplies, the RDIF is negotiating with prospective manufacturing partners in China, India, South Korea and possibly others. The target is to produce enough this year to protect at least 500 million people outside of Russia. Needless to say, Russia-China cooperation in this field has strategic importance. Until recently, China’s vaccine industry was considered a relatively minor player on the international scene. But the race to develop and deploy Covid-19 vaccines has provided China the impetus to massively upgrade its capacities while establishing itself as a major global supplier. Covid-19 vaccines by at least four Chinese producers are in final, Phase III trials in a dozen countries, with more in the pipeline. More importantly, the two presently leading Chinese vaccines, produced by the Sinovac and Sinopharm companies, have already been administered to many millions of people in emergency vaccination campaigns in the developing world.

Czech Republic clinics collapse as pandemic rages – The coronavirus pandemic is assuming increasingly dramatic forms in the Czech Republic. Across the country an average of 9,000 new infections are being reported daily and around 400 people admitted to hospitals due to COVID-19. Clinics in the west of the country are hopelessly overrun and, in some regions, no intensive care beds remain available. In the region around Karlovy Vary and Pilsen, intensive care treatment capacity has been exhausted. Every day, patients are transferred by helicopter from the municipal hospital in Cheb to other parts of the country where treatment is still possible. Residents of the border region have launched an online petition titled, “Open the borders for ambulances,” which received over 3,000 signatures in a very short period of time. The Czech health minister, Jan Blatny, has rejected any transfer of patients to German hospitals only a few kilometres away, as long as intensive care beds are free in other parts of the country. The transport to such facilities, sometimes hundreds of kilometres away, is an enormous burden for seriously ill patients. Healthcare workers move a COVID-19 patient to the Motol hospital in Prague, Czech Republic. (AP Photo/Petr David Josek, FILE) In the capital city of Prague, the seven-day incidence (infections per 100,000 inhabitants) is over 310 and even exceeds 1,000 in Cheb and in Trutnov to the north. On the German side of the border, high numbers of infections have also been reported in the border region. According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the districts of Hof and Tirschenreuth have the highest number of COVID-19 infections in Germany, with a seven-day incidence of 379 and 351 respectively. Last Wednesday, the number of infected people in the Czech Republic exceeded 1 million. On the same day, the country, with about 10.7 million inhabitants, recorded 16,545 deaths. Mortality rose by 15 percent last year, the highest rate since World War II. Around 129,100 people died in the country in 2020, an increase of 17,000 compared to 2019, according to the Czech Statistical Office (ÄŒSU). More than 11,000 of this increase in deaths were connected to coronavirus infection, according to health authorities. The situation in the country’s clinics and health facilities can only be described as catastrophic. Up until last week, more than 4,050 clinic workers had been infected. The remaining doctors and nurses have been working to the point of exhaustion for months, and clinics are only able to stay operative due to support from volunteers. A field hospital built specifically to treat 500 coronavirus patients is currently being dismantled. Deputy Health Minister Vladimir Cerny admitted that the hospital could not be put into operation due to a lack of staff.

Nearly Three Times As Many Russians Have Died From Covid Than Previously Thought – The number of Covid-related deaths in Russia last year was three times worse than previously believed, coinciding with exacerbating the country’s demographic crisis of a shrinking population. The Russian government’s Federal Statistics Service said on Monday that 162,429 people in the country died from COVID-19 last year, almost triple the 57,555 deaths previously estimated by the government’s own virus response center.The agency said 44,435 deaths related to COVID-19 were recorded in December, making it the deadliest such month of the year If the Russian government’s data is correct, only the U.S. (464,000), Brazil (232,000) and Mexico (166,000) have recorded more COVID-19 fatalities so far, according to Johns Hopkins.On the whole, 2,124,479 Russians died last year (from all causes), an increase of 324,000 from 2019, said the statistics service.In December 2020, Russia’s deputy prime minister Tatyana Golikova accurately warned that the government had severely undercounted the death toll from Covid.When the second wave of Covid infections emerged in September, Russian officials did not order a wholesale lockdown, preferring rather to impose “targeted restrictions.” The pandemic is worsening an already existing demographic crisis in Russia – the country’s overall population is shrinking. Russia’s population totaled about 146.24 million on Jan. 1, 2021, down by 510,000 from the prior year and the biggest annual drop since 2005, when the population shrank by 564,500. The country’s birth rate fell by 4.4% from 1.36 million from the January-November 2019 period to 1.3 million in the same period of 2020. Even before the onset of the pandemic, health experts attributed Russia’s population fall to such factors as AIDS, high tobacco use, high abortion rates, low immigration and alcoholism. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been trying to reverse the country’s population decline by, among other things, offering bigger tax breaks to larger families, increased state funding for new mothers and more welfare benefits and free school meals for children in low income families.

South Africa scraps AstraZeneca COVID vaccine South Africa is considering trading its doses of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine and beginning its inoculation campaign with Johnson & Johnson shots instead, the health minister said. The country, worst-hit by the pandemic in Africa, has suspended its vaccine roll-out that was due to begin with Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine this week after a study found the jab failed to prevent mild and moderate illness caused by a variant discovered in South Africa dubbed 501Y.V2. The vaccination delay has set back an ambitious plan to inoculate about 40 million people – 67 percent of the population – by the end of 2021. “Given the outcomes of the efficacy studies [the government] will continue with the planned phase one vaccination using the Johnson & Johnson vaccines instead of the AstraZeneca vaccine,” Health Minister Zweli Mkhize told a press briefing on Wednesday. “The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has been proven effective against the 501Y.V2 variant.” He did not say when immunisation would begin. Officials are also deciding on the fate of more than one million Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines already secured from the Serum Institute of India (SII) and set to expire at the end of April, though that date could potentially be adjusted.

WHO expert group recommends use of AstraZeneca vaccine (AP) – Independent experts advising the World Health Organization about immunization on Wednesday recommended the use of AstraZeneca’s vaccine even in countries that turned up worrying coronavirus variants in their populations. The WHO experts’ advice is used by health care officials worldwide, but doesn’t amount to a green light for the United Nations and its partners to ship the vaccine to countries that have signed up to receive the shots through a global initiative. That approval could come after separate WHO group meetings on Friday and Monday to assess whether an emergency-use listing for the AstraZeneca vaccine is warranted. The AstraZeneca vaccine is important because it forms the bulk of the stockpile acquired so far by the U.N.-backed effort known as COVAX, which aims to deploy coronavirus vaccines to people globally. COVAX plans to start shipping hundreds of millions of doses of the vaccine worldwide later this month, but that is contingent on WHO approval for the shot, vaccine stocks and countries’ readiness to receive it. But the vaccine has faced rising concerns. After an early study suggested that it might be less effective against a variant first seen in South Africa, the South African government scrambled to tweak its COVID-19 vaccination program. “Even if there is a reduction in the possibility of this vaccine having a full impact in its protection capacity, especially against severe disease, there is no reason not to recommend its use even in countries that have the circulation of the variants,” said Dr. Alejandro Cravioto, chair of the WHO’s expert group. Instead of rolling out 1 million AstraZeneca doses as planned, South Africa’s health minister said Wednesday that the government would start immunizing health workers with the still-unlicensed shot from Johnson & Johnson. The expert group’s recommendations about the AstraZeneca vaccine, which was developed at Oxford University in Britain, largely mirror those issued earlier by the European Medicines Agency and Britain’s drug regulator.

Indigenous leaders warn of missionaries turning Amazon villages against vaccines(Reuters) – Medical teams working to immunize Brazil’s remote indigenous villages against the coronavirus have encountered fierce resistance in some communities where evangelical missionaries are stoking fears of the vaccine, say tribal leaders and advocates. On the Sao Francisco reservation in the state of Amazonas, Jamamadi villagers sent health workers packing with bows and arrows when they visited by helicopter this month, said Claudemir da Silva, an Apurina leader representing indigenous communities on the Purus river, a tributary of the Amazon. “It’s not happening in all villages, just in those that have missionaries or evangelical chapels where pastors are convincing the people not to receive the vaccine, that they will turn into an alligator and other crazy ideas,” he said by phone. That has added to fears that COVID-19 could roar through Brazil’s more than 800,000 indigenous people, whose communal living and often precarious healthcare make them a priority in the national immunization program. Tribal leaders blame Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro and some of his avid supporters in the evangelical community for stoking skepticism about coronavirus vaccines, despite a national death toll that lags only the United States. “Religious fundamentalists and evangelical missionaries are preaching against the vaccine,” said Dinamam Tuxfl, a leader of APIB, Brazil’s largest indigenous organization. The Association of Brazilian Anthropologists denounced unspecified religious groups in a statement on Tuesday for spreading false conspiracy theories to “sabotage” the vaccination of indigenous people. Many pastors of Brazil’s urban evangelical megachurches are urging followers to get vaccinated, but they say missionaries in remote territories have not gotten the message. “Unfortunately, some pastors who lack wisdom are spreading misinformation to our indigenous brethren,” said Pastor Mario Jorge Conceicao of the Assembly of God Traditional Church in Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state.

COVID Has Reached Antarctica, and Scientists Are Extremely Concerned for Its Wildlife — In December, Antarctica lost its status as the last continent free of COVID-19 when 36 people at the Chilean Bernardo O’Higgins research station tested positive. The station’s isolation from other bases and fewer researchers in the continent means the outbreak is now likely contained. However, we know all too well how unpredictable – and pervasive – the virus can be. And while there’s currently less risk for humans in Antarctica, the potential for the COVID-19 virus to jump to Antarctica’s unique and already vulnerable wildlife has scientists extremely concerned. We’re among a global team of 15 scientists who assessed the risks of the COVID-19 virus to Antarctic wildlife, and the pathways the virus could take into the fragile ecosystem. Antarctic wildlife haven’t yet been tested for the COVID-19 virus, and if it does make its way into these charismatic animals, we don’t know how it could affect them or the continent’s ecosystem stability. The COVID-19 virus is one of seven coronaviruses found in people – all have animal origins (dubbed “zoonoses”), and vary in their ability to infect different hosts. The COVID-19 virus is thought to have originated in an animal and spread to people through an unknown intermediate host, while the SARS outbreak of 2002-2004 likely came from raccoon dogs or civets. The World Organization for Animal Health is monitoring cases of the COVID-19 virus in animals. To date, only a few species around the globe have been found to be susceptible, including mink, felines (such as lions, tigers and cats), dogs and a ferret.While mink, dogs or cats are not in Antarctica, more than 100 million flying seabirds, 45% of the world’s penguin species, 50% of the world’s seal populations and 17% of the world’s whale and dolphin speciesinhabit the continent.In a 2020 study, researchers ran computer simulations and found cetaceans – whales, dolphins or porpoises – have a high susceptibility of infection from the virus, based on the makeup of their genetic receptors to the virus. Seals and birds had a lower risk of infection. We concluded that direct contact with people poses the greatest risk for spreading the virus to wildlife, with researchers more likely vectors than tourists. Researchers have closer contact with wildlife: many Antarctic species are found near research stations, and wildlife studies often require direct handling and close proximity to animals.

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