Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666
News posted last week about economic effects related to the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some articles are summarized here. We cover the latest economic data, especially renewed talk of coronavirus relief bill, the latest employment data, housing market reports, mortgage delinquencies & forbearance, layoffs, lockdowns, and schools, as well as GDP. The bulk of the news is from the U.S., with a few articles from overseas at the end. (Picture below is morning rush hour in downtown Chicago, 20 March 2020.) News items about epidemiology and other medical news for the virus are reported in a companion article.
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Watchdog Report: Fed’s Billions in Emergency Repo Loans to Wall Street Didn’t Go Away in June; They Just Went Dark – Pam Martens -The U.S. Senate Banking Committee, the House Financial Services Committee, and the U.S. mainstream business media now thoroughly qualify as the dumb tourists snapping photos of the raging bull statue on Wall Street as the Wall Street banks loot the country for the second time in a decade.Last Thursday the Financial Stability Oversight Council (pronounced F-SOC) released its 2020 Annual Report. Those tend to be tediously boring reports that tell one nothing meaningful about the true state of the Wall Street mega banks, so we just got around to perusing the document yesterday. Mixed in with the typical snooze-worthy minutiae was a bombshell that made us sit up straight in our chair. Those cumulative repo loans totaling more than $9 trillion to the trading houses on Wall Street that the Fed had been making from September 17 of 2019 – months before the onset of COVID-19 anywhere in the world – didn’t actually stop in July as the daily data from the Fed made it seem. The New York Fed simply went dark and stopped reporting how many billions of dollars a week it was funneling to miscreant mega banks on Wall Street as food pantry lines grew by miles across the U.S. and 3.3 million small businesses were forced to shutter.F-SOC was created as an agency under the Treasury Department when the toothless Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation was passed in 2010. Each major federal regulator of banks sits on F-SOC with the Treasury Secretary acting as the permanent Chair. F-SOC defines its mission as follows: “The Council is charged with identifying risks to the financial stability of the United States; promoting market discipline; and responding to emerging risks to the stability of the United States’ financial system.”As for F-SOC “promoting market discipline” – this is the second time in a decade that the Federal Reserve has pumped trillions of dollars into the Wall Street mega banks without any oversight from Congress. The last time around, from 2007 to 2010, the Fed secretly pumped $29 trillion in cumulative loans to bail out the hubris of Wall Street’s obscenely paid CEOs and traders. (The audit of the Fed’s secret loans by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reported $16.1 trillion, but it omitted several Fed bailout programs.)Before the Fed went dark this time around on its repo loans, we had tallied up more than $9 trillion in cumulative loans by March of this year. The New York Fed was reporting these repo loans daily on a page of its website from September 2019 through early July of this year. Then it began to report zeros on a daily basis for the amount of the repo loans, giving the obvious impression to reporters and market watchers that the markets had stabilized and the banks were in fine shape.Now we find out from F-SOC’s Annual Report that these repo loans never did stop. The smoking gun paragraph reads as follows: “Primary dealer cash borrowing in the repo market, including borrowing from FRBNY’s temporary open market operations, stood at $2.5 trillion as of September 30, 2020 … .”
Fedspeak Cheat Sheet: What Fed Officials Said Before Their December Meeting – WSJ – Federal Reserve officials have been hesitant to give credence to market speculation that they will boost the stimulus they are giving to the economy via changes in their bond-buying program, as many of them have said renewed fiscal aid is what the economy really needs. Some Fed officials also have said they see no need now to change the central bank’s support for the economy. With the interest-rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee preparing to meet Dec. 15-16, here is a sampling of what Fed officials have said since their last gathering in November.
- Chairman Jerome Powell (voter) Dec. 1, Senate Banking Committee testimony: “We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy and to help assure that the recovery from this difficult period will be as robust as possible on behalf of communities, families and businesses across the country.”
- Vice Chairman Richard Clarida (voter) Nov. 16, virtual: “We’re buying a lot of Treasurys, we’re buying $80 billion a month, that’s comparable to the pace of QE2 … These are big programs, the mortgage program is also quite, quite substantial.”
Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy — These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the vaccine is distributed. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). This data is as of December 6th. The seven day average is down 65.5% from last year (34.5% of last year). The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through December 5, 2020. Note that this data is for “only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market”. Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years. Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through December 3rd. Movie ticket sales have picked up slightly over the last couple of months, and were at $16 million last week (compared to usually around $200 million per week). This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.This data is through November 28th. Hotel occupancy is currently down 28.5% year-over-year. Since there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate, we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement. This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020: This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of . At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. As of November 27th, gasoline supplied was off about 11.7% YoY (about 88.3% of last year). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: “This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities.” There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index.This data is through December 5th for the United States and several selected cities. The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends. According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 46% of the January level. It is at 33% in Chicago, and 52% in Houston – and declining recently (the bump down and up was due to Thanksgiving). Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR). This data is through Friday, December 4th. “Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings”.
Q4 GDP Forecasts: Uncertainty – Economic activity in the fourth quarter is dependent on the impact of the pandemic. With the number of new cases per day of COVID approaching 200,000, hospitalizations at record levels (over 100,000), and deaths per day at new record highs, it is likely that economic activity will slow in December. Most of the slowdown will be related to individuals being more cautious, and some will be related to government actions. For example, from the AP: Most of California to enter sweeping new virus lockdown. Economic activity was solid in October, and that would suggest PCE growth of close to 6% in Q4, even if November and December see no month-over-month growth. No one expects a lockdown like at the end of March and in April, but it is possible that activity slowed in November and will decline in December. The high level of uncertainty over the next few months makes forecasting extremely difficult. The automated approaches (below) do not capture this uncertainty. From Goldman Sachs: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.2% (qoq ar) [Dec 2 estimate] From Merrill Lynch: We continue to track 33.1% for 3Q GDP and 6.0% for 4Q GDP. [Dec 4 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report: The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.5% for 2020:Q4 and 5.9% for 2021:Q1. [Dec 4 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in thefourth quarter of 2020 is 11.2 percent on December 4, up from 11.1 percent on December 1. [Dec 4 estimate] It is also important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A 3.3% annualized increase in Q4 GDP (close to Goldman’s forecast), is about 0.8% QoQ, and would leave real GDP down about 2.7% from Q4 2019. The following graph illustrates this decline.
U.S. Recovery Will Cool Further Before Getting Vaccine Boost, WSJ Survey Shows – WSJ – The U.S. economic recovery is likely to slow further before the impact of expected approvals of Covid-19 vaccines makes itself felt in the second quarter of 2021, a new Wall Street Journal survey shows. In the latest monthly survey of business and academic economists, forecasters slashed their projections for economic growth and job creation in the first quarter, amid a surge in coronavirus cases. A number of economists said they expect coronavirus caseloads to remain high in the first quarter of 2021 because vaccines will take time to be distributed across the U.S. “Real-time data point to a slow entry into 2021 with the health situation worsening, employment softening and spending moderating,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. On average, economists expect the economy to expand at a 1.9% annual rate from January to March, down from 3.3% growth in November’s survey. Economists forecast the labor market will add just under 295,000 new jobs a month in the first quarter, down from over 440,000 a month in the November survey. But economists overwhelmingly expect the potential rollout of coronavirus vaccines will be a boon for the economy in the second quarter, with 62.5% of those surveyed expecting it to add more than 0.5 percentage point to the annualized growth rate in the April-to-June period. More than 90% expect the rollout of coronavirus vaccines will cause hiring to accelerate in the second quarter. Less than half said they expect hiring to accelerate in the first quarter because of the shots. “The warmer weather next spring, along with fresh optimism that the nightmare of Covid-19 is ending, should produce a burst in consumer and business spending in the second quarter,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group. As a result, economists now expect the annualized pace of gross domestic product growth will top 4% in the second and third quarters of next year. On average, they see 4.2% growth in the second quarter, up from 3.6% in last month’s survey, and 4.3% in the third quarter, compared with an earlier forecast of 3.6%..
House to vote Wednesday on a weeklong stopgap to avoid government shutdown The House is expected to vote Wednesday on a stopgap measure to avert a government shutdown after current funding expires this Friday, an acknowledgment that negotiators need more time to reach a longer-term deal. Democratic aides confirmed Monday that the stopgap is expected to last through Dec. 18. House Democratic leaders initially hoped to wrap up work on an all-encompassing spending package, coronavirus economic relief and an annual defense policy bill by Friday and send members home in time to quarantine for two weeks before spending Christmas with their families. Senators were less optimistic last week about getting all that work done so quickly. “Will we do it by the ninth? I’d like [to] but probably not. There’s some challenges that have got to be dealt with,” Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) said last Wednesday. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) pushed back a day later, insisting that “if we think it will not get done, it will not get done.” In the end, House Democrats are now acknowledging that negotiators will need more time. Hoyer expressed frustration on Monday that progress is moving slowly on a spending package and coronavirus relief. “Not getting a deal is not on the table,” he told reporters in the Capitol.
Lawmakers face hurdles to COVID relief deal –Negotiators in the House and Senate are racing to finish a massive end-of-year deal to fund the government and provide help to workers and families struggling through a worsening pandemic.Last-minute sticking points are threatening to push the talks into the weekend or next week and may scuttle an agreement all together despite momentum for a deal that has been building since last week.Congress is expected to pass a one-week stopgap measure as soon as Wednesday to keep the government funded through Dec. 18. Without such action, the government could shut down on Saturday.”The time is now the problem on all of this,” said Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), a member of Senate GOP leadership. Leadership hopes to stick long-stalled coronavirus relief onto the mammoth funding bill. They’re juggling that with votes on a defense bill President Trump has threatened to veto and a long-shot effort to block a $23 billion arms sale to the United Arab Emirates. It’s not just a desire to get home for Christmas that makes members want to reach a deal soon.Rising coronavirus case numbers, hospitalizations and deaths, while underscoring the need for a relief measure, are also creating risks for those gathered at the Capitol. “Not getting a deal is not an option,” said House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). “We have got to come together and have some give and take. But not getting a deal done is not on the table from my perspective.” Both Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) say they want the big deal, but differences on aid to local governments and McConnell’s demand for broad liability protections are among the outstanding issues to be resolved.McConnell, speaking from the Senate floor on Monday, urged Democrats to cut a deal on coronavirus on areas where there is agreement, including vaccine funding and more small-business aid. “We have seen some hopeful signs of engagement from our Democratic colleagues, but we have no reason to think the underlying disagreements about policy are going to evaporate overnight. … We just need both sides to finally do what members of Congress do when they’re serious … drop the all-or-nothing tactics,” he said. Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) fired back that “our efforts to pass another emergency relief bill through the Senate have been stalled until now for one reason – the Republican leader has refused to compromise.”Congress is facing pressure for a few reasons. Some states and cities are reinstating lockdown measures as cases rise, which would further hurt the economy, and a slew of programs created under the March CARES Act are set to expire in a matter of weeks. While late-in-the-game squabbling over major legislation is practically an annual holiday tradition at the Capitol, lawmakers are even more eager to get out of Washington given the COVID-19 anxieties. Of the 35 members of the House and Senate who have tested positive for COVID-19 since March – excluding several who had presumed cases or tested positive for antibodies – about 40 percent have been in the last month alone.
Warren signals concerns about bipartisan coronavirus framework – Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) signaled concerns on Monday about the framework of a bipartisan coronavirus relief package, the latest sign of skepticism from progressives in both chambers. Warren, speaking to reporters in the Capitol, stressed that there isn’t even legislative text on the bicameral framework, but raised red flags over several areas including a GOP push for protections from coronavirus lawsuits. “There’s no agreement yet. I am very worried that the dollar amount is too low, people need help. Folks who’ve been getting an extra $600 of unemployment relief are barely making it. Cutting that in half, does not make their lives easier,” she told reporters. Warren also said she is “very worried about where the liability provisions land” in ongoing negotiations. A bipartisan, bicameral group of lawmakers unveiled a $908 billion framework last week, which they are currently ironing out behind closed doors as they try to draft text for their proposal. The bill includes, among other provisions, $160 billion for states and cities – a top priority for Democrats – $180 billion for unemployment insurance and $288 billion for more small business assistance through the Paycheck Protection Program. But members of the group haven’t yet finalized language on protections from coronavirus-related lawsuits, a serious sticking point to any agreement, and are still trying to iron out the language on more state and local funding, which garners strong pushback from. Neither the bipartisan proposal nor a separate GOP-backed one from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) includes a second round of direct assistance to taxpayers. The March CARES Act provided a $1,200 check for individuals who make up to $75,000. The lack of a second round of payments has drawn pushback from fellow progressives including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), a potential 2024 Republican presidential contender, also urged President Trump over the weekend to veto any bill that does not include another round of direct payments.
Mnuchin Defends Coronavirus-Relief Loan to Troubled Trucking Firm YRC – WSJ – Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin defended the government’s decision to lend $700 million in coronavirus-relief funds to trucking firm YRC Worldwide Inc., telling a congressional oversight panel Thursday that taxpayers will profit from the loan. Members of the bipartisan Congressional Oversight Commission, the watchdog group monitoring Treasury loan programs, have questioned how the Overland Park, Kan.-based firm was able to qualify for government aid despite its precarious financial position before the pandemic. Mr. Mnuchin acknowledged the loan was risky and said he was under pressure from lawmakers to extend credit to struggling firms, even if it meant losing money. “If my bank had been underwriting this loan, we would not be making this loan,” said Mr. Mnuchin, who served as chairman of OneWest Bank before joining the Trump administration. “That doesn’t mean I don’t think we’re secured and we’ll get our money back.” YRC, one of the nation’s largest trucking companies, qualified for the aid through a $17 billion loan program for firms deemed critical to maintaining national security. The Treasury Department has said it made the national-security decision based on a recommendation and guidance from then-Defense Secretary Mark Esper. YRC carries 68% of the Defense Department’s less-than-truckload shipments, in which cargo from shippers is combined in a single trailer, and it is the leading transportation provider to the Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Treasury Department said in a Sept. 4 letter to the commission. Mr. Mnuchin said the government had expected to take losses on the loan, but said the economy had rebounded more quickly than expected, as had the company’s fortunes. “I’m actually quite proud of the fact that we did YRC,” he said. “It saved lots and lots and lots of jobs. I’ve received calls from the company, from truckers, from other people who appreciate this.” He said “whoever is Treasury secretary” next year should consider selling the loan and recovering the profits to taxpayers.
COVID-19 relief should extend CARES Act work-sharing provisions – EPI Blog – With over a million new unemployment claims still being filed each week, job growth slowing, and millions of workers about to lose emergency jobless benefits created through the CARES Act in March, it is imperative that Congress enact another COVID-19 emergency relief package as quickly as possible. In addition to key provisions such as aid to state and local governments and extending the emergency benefits for unemployed workers, Congress should also extend innovative provisions that helped prevent workers from being laid off in the first place – specifically the CARES Act’s federal subsidies for work-sharing. Work-sharing provides a way for many businesses to cope with a drop in consumer demand without having to lay off staff. Under work-sharing, workers’ hours are reduced and they receive partial unemployment insurance (UI) benefits to make up a portion of their lost wages. For example, if a business anticipated having to lay off five workers, they might instead cut in half the hours of 10 staff – achieving the same reduction in total work hours – and those 10 workers would all receive partial unemployment benefits from the state to make up some of their lost income. By keeping workers on the job, work-sharing mitigates the impact of joblessness and reduces unemployment peaks in downturns. Now that coronavirus vaccines appear to be on the horizon, maintaining a connection between more workers and their employers for the first part of next year makes even more sense. As the pandemic is brought under control and regular consumer demand picks up, companies with work-sharing programs won’t have to go through a process of recruiting, hiring, and training new staff; they will be able to quickly ramp back up simply by restoring participants in work-sharing to full time. Although work-sharing has not historically been widely used in the United States, Figure A shows that it is fairly common in other parts of the world. In Belgium, the country with the highest take-up rate, work-sharing participants equaled about 5.6% of employment in 2009, a huge cushioning of Belgian families and businesses from the impact of the Great Recession. For comparison, if the U.S. had the same take-up rate of work-sharing as Belgium, roughly 2 million jobs might have been preserved in 2009.i Figure A also shows that in 10 other countries, work sharing equaled 1% to 4% of employment in 2009 – five to 20 times larger than usage in the U.S.
White House Makes Offer to Democrats of $916 Billion Covid-19 Relief Bill – WSJ – The Trump administration made a $916 billion coronavirus relief offer to Democrats, opening yet another front in the multi-track effort to reach an agreement in talks that rank-and-file lawmakers have been leading in the final weeks of the year. The proposal, announced in a brief statement by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, came after Democrats rejected an effort by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) to narrow the scope of a coronavirus relief bill by excluding aid for hard-hit state and local governments prioritized by Democrats and liability protections sought by Republicans. At the same time, the White House is pushing Republicans to include a new round of direct payments of $600 per person in the emerging package, according to people familiar with the discussions, reviving prospects for checks to households in this round of aid. Those direct checks were included in the White House’s offer to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.), House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) told reporters Tuesday. The White House offer didn’t include the $300 per week in unemployment insurance that a bipartisan group had coalesced around, according to aides from both parties. Mr. Mnuchin said he had reviewed the proposal with President Trump, Mr. McCarthy and Mr. McConnell. Mrs. Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) reacted coolly to the fresh offer, highlighting its sharp cut in proposed spending on jobless benefits. In a joint statement, they said the proposal marked progress, but “must not be allowed to obstruct the bipartisan Congressional talks that are underway.” Mr. McConnell hasn’t commented on the administration’s latest offer. The re-engagement from the White House and back-and-forth between party leaders complicated a delicate effort from a small group of lawmakers to finalize the details of their own $908 billion compromise effort. Congress and the White House have for months failed to put together a fifth coronavirus aid package, prompting an informal set of Republicans and Democrats to try to craft their own bill in recent weeks.
‘Unacceptable’: Democrats reject new White House proposal that would slash weekly unemployment benefits in exchange for one-time $600 stimulus checks – Democrats are rejecting a White House proposal to fund new $600 stimulus checks by slashing money for the unemployed. On Tuesday evening, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin proposed a new $916 billion COVID-19 stimulus package that would offer aid to state and local governments in exchange for “robust liability protections” for businesses, protecting them from employee lawsuits over the spread of COVID-19 in the workplace.Mnuchin’s proposal, welcomed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, also includes money for a new round of $600 stimulus checks – the funds coming, in part, by slashing a proposed $300-a-week boost in unemployment benefits. “That is unacceptable,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a joint statement. The Democratic lawmakers noted that a bipartisan stimulus package calls for providing $180 billion in new funding for unemployment insurance, a figure that would be slashed to $40 billion under the White House offer. A $3 trillion stimulus package passed by House Democrats in May calls for $1,200 stimulus checks. “While it is progress that Leader McConnell has signed off on a $916 billion offer that is based off of the bipartisan framework, the president’s proposal must not be allowed to obstruct the bipartisan congressional talks that are underway,” they said.
Unemployment claims hit highest level in months: Millions more jobs will be lost if Congress doesn’t act — EPI Blog by Heidi Shierholz –Another 1.3 million people applied for UI benefits last week, including 853,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 428,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). The 1.3 million who applied for UI last week was an increase of 276,000 from the prior week, bringing initial claims back to their highest point since September. Further, last week’s increase was not just due to week-to-week volatility in the data. The four-week moving average of total initial claims is now at its highest point since October. In other words, layoffs appear to be rising, consistent with the resurgent virus. And, last week was the 38th straight week total initial claims were greater than the worst week of the Great Recession. (If that comparison is restricted to regular state claims – because we didn’t have PUA in the Great Recession – initial claims last week were greater than the second-worst week of the Great Recession.)Most states provide 26 weeks (six months) of regular benefits, but this crisis has gone on for nearly nine months. That means many workers have exhausted their regular state UI benefits. In the most recent data, the four-week moving average of continuing claims for regular state UI dropped by 260,000 (note: the weekly number increased, but that was likely due to week-to-week volatility in the data).For now, after an individual exhausts regular state benefits, they can move onto Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), which is an additional 13 weeks of regular state UI. However, PEUC is set to expire on December 26 (as is PUA – more on these expirations below).In the latest data available for PEUC (the week ending November 21), PEUC ticked down by 36,000. How did this happen, with so many people exhausting regular state UI and needing to get on PEUC? Many of the roughly 2 million workers who were on UI before the recession began, or who are in states with less than the standard 26 weeks of regular state benefits, are now exhausting PEUC benefits, at the same time others are taking it up. More than 1.5 million workers had exhausted PEUC by the end of October, and that figure will be substantially higher now (see column C43 in form ETA 5159 for PEUC here).In some states, if workers exhaust PEUC, they can get on yet another program, Extended Benefits (EB). However, in the latest data, just 615,000 workers were on EB. That’s far less than half of those who have exhausted PEUC. Most are left with nothing.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey continues to show weaker levels of hires than before the recession hit: Any hope for a quick recovery is off the table unless Congress acts now -EPI Blog – Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that, as of the middle of November, the economy was still 9.8 million jobs below where it was in February and job growth slowed considerably in November. Today’s BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reports little change in October, a clear and confirming sign that the recovery is not charging ahead. In fact, hiring and job openings are below where they were before the recession hit, which makes it impossible to recover anytime soon, when we have such a massive hole to fill in the labor market.In October, job openings rose mildly (6.5 to 6.7 million) while hires softening slightly (5.9 to 5.8 million). Separations increased (4.8 to 5.1 million), largely due to an unfortunate increase in layoffs (1.4 to 1.6 million). On the whole, the U.S. economy is seeing a significantly slower pace of hiring than we experienced in May or June – hiring is roughly where it was before the recession, which is a big problem given that we have only recovered just over half of the job losses from this spring. And job openings are now substantially below where they were before the recession began (6.7 million at the end of October, compared to 7.1 million on average in the year prior to the recession). And today’s data release only covers through October, so it doesn’t even capture November’s slowdown in job growth. With hiring and job openings at these levels, the economy is facing a long slow recovery, unless Congress acts.One of the most striking indicators from today’s report is the job seekers ratio, that is, the ratio of unemployed workers (averaged for mid-October and mid-November) to job openings (at the end of October). On average, there were 10.9 million unemployed workers while there were only 6.7 million job openings. This translates into a job seeker ratio of about 1.6 unemployed workers to every job opening. Another way to think about this: for every 16 workers who were officially counted as unemployed, there were only available jobs for 10 of them. That means, no matter what they did, there were no jobs for 4.2 million unemployed workers. And this misses the fact that many more weren’t counted among the unemployed. The economic pain remains widespread with over 26 million workers hurt by the coronavirus downturn. Without congressional action to stimulate the economy, we are facing a slow, painful recovery. As winter approaches and many families face eviction and hunger as well as growing COIVD-19 cases, the incoming Biden administration will be facing a mounting, not waning, crisis. We cannot wait: Congress must take immediate action to provide relief to all of those unemployed workers who have no hope for employment and are desperately trying to make ends meet.
Senate Averts Shutdown as Covid-Aid Talks Continue – WSJ – The Senate passed a stopgap measure to fund the government for one week, giving lawmakers more time to negotiate a long-sought coronavirus-relief agreement and wrap up a broader spending package. President Trump signed the measure into law Friday night. Approval of the short-term spending bill sets up a sprint to resolve a set of difficult issues before Congress in a matter of days. In the coronavirus talks, a bipartisan group of lawmakers has struggled to close out a proposal because of disagreements on how to craft liability protections for businesses, schools, and health-care providers who face coronavirus-related lawsuits. The negotiations on the liability issue among the rank-and-file members has prompted Senate Republicans to push for excluding the issue from the current bill entirely, dropping a demand that any relief bill must include it. In return, Republicans are insisting that the bill also exclude aid for state and local governments, a measure championed by Democrats. Democrats have so far rejected the trade. They maintain the bill must include aid for state and local governments whose finances have suffered during the pandemic.Lawmakers are expected to pair any coronavirus-relief agreement with a spending package covering the rest of the federal fiscal year. On top of trying to meet the funding deadline for next week, Congress also faces the expiration of several unemployment and other relief programs implemented earlier this year. While talks are set to continue on liability provisions this weekend, Senate Republican leadership is reviewing other parts of the agreement, according to a person familiar with the talks. Lawmakers have agreed to other elements of the bipartisan framework, including adding $300 a week to state unemployment benefits for four months, providing $300 billion in aid to small businesses, and sending $35 billion for health-care providers. The short-term patch extends funding through Dec. 18. The Senate passed the extension Friday afternoon after Sens. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.) and Josh Hawley (R., Mo.) dropped their objections to quickly proceeding to the government funding bill. The pair has sought a vote on sending another set of $1,200 direct checks to many Americans. Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R., S.D.) said Congress could possibly approve another round of direct checks if it doesn’t provide new funding for state and local governments. “I think in lieu of state and local government payments, I’ve said this before, I could see you, you know, dropping individual payments in the package,” he said. “And you wouldn’t be able to get as much as they’re talking about but it would still be a pretty significant direct payment to people out there.” But Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.) said that the bipartisan negotiators didn’t want to pull state and local aid and liability protections out of their effort. “We’re still working, nothing is coming out,” he said.
McConnell rejects bipartisan Covid relief plan while House adjourns until next week – Few signs of progress toward a coronavirus relief deal emerged Thursday as Congress inches closer to letting millions of Americans fall deeper into financial peril. They will have to wait longer for Washington to figure out how to help them. After votes Thursday, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., told representatives the chamber would adjourn until at least Tuesday pending an agreement on pandemic aid and full-year government funding. The House’s move to end work for the week came as Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s staff informed congressional leadership offices that Senate Republicans likely would not support a $908 billion bipartisan proposal, according to NBC News. Politico first reported the Kentucky Republican’s plan to brush aside the plan, which members of his caucus have helped to craft. Congressional leaders continue to stress the importance of approving a rescue package in the coming days to prevent about 12 million Americans from losing unemployment benefits and stop families across the country from getting tossed out of their homes. Despite a flurry of activity to try to reach a deal, lawmakers still have not resolved disputes that have driven months of failure to respond to a once-in-a-century health and economic crisis. It remains unclear what kind of package could garner the support of both the GOP-controlled Senate and Democratic-held House. On Thursday, Democrats again endorsed the bipartisan talks. Those discussions, however, still have not yielded legislation as lawmakers finalize provisions related to state and local government relief and GOP-backed legal immunity for businesses. NBC News reported that the group agreed Thursday afternoon on how to distribute $160 billion in state and local funds, but has not resolved questions about legal immunity. Speaking on the Senate floor Thursday, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., described the bipartisan negotiations as “the only real game in town” to craft a bill that could get through a divided Congress. He contended McConnell has tried to trip up those talks in favor of a plan that includes only policies Republicans support.McConnell targeted Democrats on Thursday for what he called efforts to delay new relief. He has backed more narrow legislation of about $500 billion, which would be based around Paycheck Protection Program small business loans. It would not include additional federal unemployment benefits or direct payments.
JPMorgan gives recovery policy recommendations to Biden team – JPMorgan Chase & Co. has shared policy recommendations for economic recovery, including calls for further stimulus, with key members of President-elect Joe Biden’s transition team, The Hill has confirmed. The JPMorgan Chase PolicyCenter, a year-old policy shop headed by former Obama adviser Heather Higginbottom, compiled the list of recommendations based on an analysis of anonymized data from its clients, which it says are good, real-time indicators of how the economy is faring. Parts of Biden’s transition team have actively reached out to ask for the proposals as well. CNBC first reported the story. In arguing for further stimulus and reinstating expanded unemployment insurance, for example, the document points to the fact that the payments were used up quickly, especially by low-income households. Economists often look to whether economic support is spent, which stimulates the economy, rather than being stashed aside for later. The report also noted that after $600 in extra weekly unemployment payments from March’s CARES Act expired at the end of July, spending dropped quickly among the unemployed. “While the unemployed roughly doubled their liquid savings over the four-month period between March and July 2020, they spent two-thirds of the accumulated savings in August alone,” the paper noted. Higginbottom says the bank’s data gave unique insights into how the extra unemployment and its expiration affected families during the crisis. “What our research shows is that the families needed it, they saved it, they have been rapidly spending it down, and without it they’re in dire trouble,” she said. The policy list also endorsed long-term recommendations for helping people create financial buffers, such as special retirement-like accounts for rainy days and baby bonds, a policy Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) championed in his presidential run. The policy paper homed in on African American and Hispanic communities as particularly vulnerable and called for affordable housing and homeownership programs for underserved communities. It called for extending forbearance on student loans during the COVID-19 crisis but not forgiving them, as advocates such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) have called on Biden to do through executive order, and restoring small-business relief.
Biden unveils health team with Becerra, Murthy, Walensky in top roles President-elect Joe Biden officially unveiled his health team early Monday, naming California Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D) as secretary of Health and Human Services. Vivek Murthy was selected to return to his role as surgeon general, and Rochelle Walensky was picked as director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Biden also announced that Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious diseases expert, will remain as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The top health officials will be responsible for guiding the country through the coronavirus pandemic, which has infected tens of millions of people across the globe, killed more than 280,000 Americans and ravaged the economy. Biden similarly announced members of his intended national security and economic teams in recent weeks. Becerra and Murthy will each need to be confirmed by the Senate. “This trusted and accomplished team of leaders will bring the highest level of integrity, scientific rigor, and crisis-management experience to one of the toughest challenges America has ever faced – getting the pandemic under control so that the American people can get back to work, back to their lives, and back to their loved ones,” Biden said in a statement. “This team of world-class medical experts and public servants will be ready on day one to mobilize every resource of the federal government to expand testing and masking, oversee the safe, equitable, and free distribution of treatments and vaccines, re-open schools and businesses safely, lower prescription drug and other health costs and expand affordable health care to all Americans, and rally the country and restore the belief that there is nothing beyond America’s capacity if we do it together,” Biden added. He is expected to introduce the members of his health team at an event on Tuesday. Becerra served 12 terms in the House representing Los Angeles. Since being elected California attorney general in 2016, he has been among the most aggressive state attorneys general in suing the Trump administration over immigration measures and health care and environmental rollbacks. Becerra is the second Latino named to a high-profile Cabinet position by Biden. He will be tasked with leading a sprawling agency that is responsible for managing the response to the coronavirus pandemic, which has already killed more than 280,000 people in the U.S. The Department of Health and Human Services will also be responsible for overseeing the distribution of a coronavirus vaccine in the coming months. Murthy, who was surgeon general from 2014 to 2017, had expected to play a key role in the Biden administration. He has advised Biden for months on the coronavirus pandemic, which was a central focus of Biden’s successful presidential campaign. Murthy said in a tweet Monday morning that he plans to be a “voice for science” in this “moment of crisis.” Walensky, chief of infectious diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital, recently completed a study in partnership with Yale University looking at the efficacy rates of the coronavirus vaccines on a general population. She will be a leading player in the rollout of a coronavirus vaccine, which is expected to begin in the coming weeks and extend well into next year. The vaccine is not expected to be available to the general U.S. population until spring. Biden said last week that he planned to offer Fauci the role of chief medical adviser on his coronavirus team. Fauci, who has served as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984, said on NBC’s “Today” that he accepted the offer “right on the spot.”
The pandemic and the normalization of death – The United States is in the midst of one of the most intense periods of mass death in the nation’s history. More than 16,000 people have died from the coronavirus in the course of just one week, an average of 2,300 every day. By way of comparison, during the 1918 “Spanish flu” pandemic, some 675,000 people in the US lost their lives over two years, an average of less than 1,000 people every day. In 1995, at the height of the horrific AIDS epidemic, 41,000 people died in a single year, amounting to approximately 112 people per day, or 1/20th the current rate of death. Within the next few days, the total death toll from the coronavirus will surpass 300,000, or nearly one out of every 1,000 people in the entire country. The coronavirus is now the leading cause of death in the United States, surpassing heart disease and cancer. Under conditions in which this level of death occurs day after day, week after week, month after month, the official response is to minimize the catastrophe that is unfolding. Death has been “normalized.” In the media, the death toll is reported every day. There is even, from time to time, reference to some particularly ghastly incident, such as the death of both parents or the wiping out of a family. But the subject is dropped, and the newscast moves on to the next item. There is no acknowledgment that this unmitigated catastrophe requires a massive and immediate response. There is no attempt to examine who is dying, where and under what conditions. Trump, the fascistic would-be dictator in the White House, has treated the deaths as of no significance – “virtually nobody” is affected, as he put it earlier this year. The entire policy of the Trump administration has been based on preventing any coordinated response to stop the spread of illness and death. As for President-elect Joe Biden, he casually observed last week that “we’re likely to lose another 250,000 people dead between now and January.” He presented this massive death toll as if it were an unavoidable cosmic event, requiring no immediate action. There was no demand for emergency action to prevent this forecast from being realized. The normalization of death arises from the decision, rooted in class interests, to treat “economic health” and “human life” as comparable phenomena, with the former prioritized over the latter. Once the legitimacy of the comparison and prioritization is accepted – as it is by the political establishment, the oligarchs and the media – mass death is viewed as unavoidable.
Giuliani has tested positive for coronavirus, Trump says — Rudy Giuliani, who has led President Trump’s legal challenges to try to overturn the election, has tested positive for the coronavirus, the president said Sunday. Giuliani was admitted to Medstar Georgetown University Hospital in Washington, D.C. on Sunday, according to multiple reports. However, additional details about his condition were not immediately available. He tweeted Sunday evening that he “getting great care and feeling good. “Recovering quickly and keeping up with everything,” he said.Giuliani is the latest member of Trump’s inner circle to contract the virus. Trump himself was infected and spent several days in the hospital in early October, and his chief of staff, multiple senior advisers, his press secretary, his campaign manager and his oldest son have all tested positive since.The former New York City mayor is 76, putting him at a higher risk for serious complications from the virus.Giuliani’s diagnosis comes roughly two weeks after Andrew Giuliani, who works in the White House, tested positive for the coronavirus. He held a lengthy, indoor, maskless press conference in late November with, among others, Trump campaign adviser Boris Epshteyn, who tested positive for COVID-19 shortly thereafter.But the former New York City mayor opted not to quarantine in the time since as he serves as the lead lawyer for Trump in his unsuccessful bid to undermine the election results.Instead, Giuliani has been traveling to battleground states and appearing at campaign events where he and some GOP lawmakers have levied allegations of voter fraud and argued that President-elect Joe Biden‘s victory is invalid. Giuliani has been to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona in the past two weeks alone.
Arizona legislature shuts down after Giuliani tests positive for coronavirus The two chambers of the Arizona state legislature will suspend their work this week after former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani tested positive for the coronavirus less than a week after spending hours testifying in front of Republican legislators in a futile bid to overturn the state’s election results. Spokespeople for the state House and Senate confirmed to The Hill Sunday that the two chambers would cancel their planned meetings this week because of concerns over the spread of the coronavirus. President Trump tweeted that Giuliani tested positive for the virus Sunday, and reports said he is receiving treatment at a Washington-area hospital. Giuliani, Trump’s lead legal strategist in a series of cases the president has lost in court, has traveled to several states in recent days to testify – not under oath – about alleged election irregularities for which he has not offered evidence. In Arizona, Giuliani spent almost ten hours with Republican legislators at a Phoenix hotel on Monday. He appeared without a mask, and at one point he even asked a fellow witness to remove her mask while he was sitting less than six feet away. At least nine state lawmakers and two members of Congress – Reps. Paul Gosar (R) and Andy Biggs (R) – attended the session, according to the Arizona Republic. The members posed for a group photograph tweeted out by the Arizona Republican Party, without a mask in sight.
Bankers & Traders Deemed “Essential”, Will Receive Priority Access For COVID Vaccines – Just like they were deemed ‘essential’ during the lockdown, ‘financial services’ employees – a vague, all-encompassing designation that includes everyone from bank tellers to traders and IBD analysts – are expected to be deemed “essential” by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, the agency that will ultimately decide who gets priority access to the COVID vaccines.Before COVID, the ACIP was a sleepy organization that determined esoteric standards and handled oversight of approving new vaccines. DHS has defined essential workers as ‘those who conduct a range of operations and services that are typically essential to continue critical infrastructure operations.’ But as for what those professions are, exactly – well, that’s entirely up to the ACIP.The DHS has defined financial services workers as “essential” because they help keep the money flowing, financing trade and investment and everything else. Without them, the Fed might need to resort to direct capital injections.That includes everyone from bank tellers, to the traders and analysts and even back office workers who keep America’s banks running.Even if progressives like AOC and her fellows in ‘the Squad’ try to put a stop to this, arguing that bankers and analysts and traders don’t deserve priority over more ‘oppressed’ classes, states and local governments might have final discretion over who actually gets the vaccine, meaning that a major kerfuffle at the federal level might not actually stop Gov. Cuomo from quietly ensuring that his pals on Wall Street get the vaccines they need.
Last-minute push for CARES Act extensions -It could be an anxious week for credit unions. This is the last full week both chambers of Congress are expected to be in Washington and a host of matters relevant to the industry remain unresolved. The House is scheduled to wrap up its business by the end of this week, with the Senate staying on until Dec. 18, though there has been talk that House members could stick around longer. Whatever happens, credit union groups are pushing hard in the short time remaining for an extension of provisions from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Stimulus Act that would lengthen changes to the National Credit Union Administration’s Central Liquidity Facility beyond the end of this year. That’s not the only issue where the clock is ticking. A provision related to troubled debt restructuring also expires at year-end. If the TDR provision is allowed to lapse then it could become harder for credit unions to work with members who might be struggling financially due to the economic fallout from the coronavirus. “But there’s another provision of the CARES Act that doesn’t expire that allows for borrower-initiated forbearance and foreclosure moratoriums on loans that are sol to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,” Ryan Donovan, chief advocacy officer at the Credit Union National Association, said in an interview Friday. “That doesn’t expire until the end of the emergency declaration [and] creates a situation where if the TDR provision expires, loans sold into the secondary market could have different treatments than loans held in portfolio, and that could present a great deal of confusion and frustration … for credit unions.” Donovan and other industry watchers remain confident that CLF and TDR provisions can be extended before the end of the year, even if those actions don’t happen this week. Still, one key credit union issue made it across the finish line with time to spare. The National Defense Authorization Act for 2021 survived the conference process without a component allowing banks similar low- or no-rent access to military installations that credit unions have. An earlier version of the NDAA passed by the Senate did not include that provision. The final bill must still be passed in both chambers and be signed into law by the president.
BankThink PPP left many small businesses behind. Next stimulus cannot do the same – As legislators debate another coronavirus relief package, they must include three components: one stimulus directed toward small businesses, another for individuals and a third that makes bank regulation part of the solution, rather than part of the problem. If these components are part of a new stimulus package, small businesses still standing will have a fighting chance. Many small-business owners foresee the oncoming train of lockdowns in the winter months as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to increase. However, there is renewed hope that life can return to normalcy by the end of next summer as several vaccination options are expected to be distributed in the coming months. The only problem is that many small businesses will have shuttered by then. The situation is all the more tragic since big-box retailers and ecommerce giants such as Amazon, Google, Walmart, Costco and Target have actually thrived in the pandemic while many storefront smaller competitors were forced into government shutdowns. Small businesses need a rescue package tailored specifically to them to survive. It would possess similarities to the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) in that it could be administered by the U.S. Small Business Administration, but would be hyperfocused on those small companies in dire need of aid. Rather than the PPP’s $10 million limit in forgivable lending, the cap could be set $1 million. Further, rather than cover nearly every business, a new program could apply to specific industries such as retail, personal services, fitness centers, restaurants, transportation and tour services, entertainment and the like. These businesses could apply for loans based on a three-month average of 2019 expenses to get help going again. The loan amount could be forgiven based on every dollar spent for buying new supplies, repair costs, opening expenses, and 50% of all salaries and benefits for workers earning less than $100,000 annually who are rehired or continue to be employed, and 75% for any new hires. Expenses toward forgiveness could be claimed from either July 1, 2021, or the time of reopening, whichever comes first, until the end of 2021. Like the PPP, banks and other providers could serve as intermediaries. The SBA could pay a 3% fee on loans up to the first $500,000, and 1.5% on amounts up to the second $500,000. Rather than have this be a footrace due to limited appropriations, any compliant applications tendered during the period should be funded. This hyperfocused relief program could be offered in addition to current proposals for a modified PPP to push the economy through the winter recession. For individuals, the next stimulus package could include enhanced unemployment payments. As of last week, lawmakers were considering a package to provide an additional $300 per week unemployment stimulus, compared to the additional $600 per week previously offered through July. The reality is for several months, those who are truly in need of the funds have been getting zero extra dollars, which can’t continue if Congress wants to restore the U.S. economy quickly. Finally, with regard to the role of the banks, the next package could enable financial institutions to take a greater part in the solution. The loan forbearance provisions in the first stimulus package could be extended throughout 2021.
Waters calls on Biden to reverse Trump’s deregulatory actions – House Financial Services Committee Chairwoman Maxine Waters, D-Calif., sent a 45-page letter to President-elect Joe Biden calling on him to “immediately reverse” deregulatory actions taken by the Trump administration and to implement steps addressing the coronavirus pandemic. “I urge your leadership at the Department of the Treasury and your regulatory appointees to immediately take action to restore and enhance regulatory safeguards that put consumers, investors and taxpayers first, and ensures the financial system is better prepared for unexpected events,” Waters wrote. Waters called on Biden to fire Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Kathy Kraninger, revamp the CFPB’s payday lending and debt collection rules, and restore the agency’s fair lending and equal opportunity office. The House member also said Biden should fire FHFA Director Mark Calabria, halt plans for the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to exit conservatorship, and rescind the new FHFA capital rule. Waters also urged the Biden administration to rescind the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s Community Reinvestment Act rule and issue a new rule to strengthen the anti-redlining law. Aside from the laundry list of rules that Waters is pressing the Biden administration to reverse through executive action, Waters also issued a number of recommendations of ways the incoming administration can respond to the coronavirus pandemic. Waters criticized Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s request for the Federal Reserve to close down Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act emergency lending facilities and return unused funds to the Treasury Department. “If Treasury tries to make unused funds unavailable to your administration and the Fed going forward, it is vital that your administration quickly reverse any unlawful action by the Trump Administration while utilizing and deploying whatever funds remain available to minimize job losses and stimulate the economy,” Waters wrote. Waters also called on the Biden administration to forgive up to $50,000 in student loan debt until the economy can recover and to immediately suspend the collection of debts owed by consumers to the federal government until after the pandemic ends.
Fed’s exam ratings system needs upgrade, Quarles says – Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles on Friday called for an overhaul of bank supervisory ratings, arguing that more transparency about the process of scoring an institutions safety and soundness would make the Fed’s oversight more effective. “There is broad agreement that ratings are a beneficial, even necessary, part of bank supervision,” he said at a virtual event held jointly by the Fed, Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania. “Yet we have very few studies or other empirical support for this conclusion.” Like the other federal bank regulators, the Fed uses a confidential ratings system known as Camels to assign a combined safety and soundness score to a bank as well as ratings for five performance areas: capital adequacy, assets, management capability, earnings, liquidity and sensitivity to market risk. The Fed scores most bank holding companies through its so-called RFI system, which stands for risk management, financial condition and impact, but larger bank parents are subject to the “large financial institution” ratings system introduced in 2018. Quarles said that the Fed could do more to make its ratings frameworks “reliably consistent and predictable for all banks.” “Banks could benefit because they would be better positioned to anticipate supervisory feedback and understand what steps they need to take to improve their ratings,” he said. “Supervisors can benefit by being grounded in more predictable criteria.” Quarles said he has specifically directed Fed staff to look into the qualitative elements of the Fed’s ratings frameworks, whether the Fed could be more clear about how it weights the qualitative and quantitative factors in its ratings, and the overall effectiveness of the Fed’s new LFI ratings. “Even if we were to make no changes to our ratings frameworks, going through the process of assessing this calibration will surely provide a valuable learning experience,” Quarles said. “It would also increase our conviction in the legitimacy of our ratings frameworks and our confidence as a prudential supervisor.” Quarles also said he wants to do a deep dive into how bank ratings vary by examiner. He suggested that ratings could be affected by the specific point time that an exam has been conducted, and that a better approach may be to apply “the scrutiny of multiple parties with a range of perspectives and experiences” instead of a single examiner. He also proposed that the Fed look into whether examiners should have to review banks’ compliance with certain regulations, like the Fed’s liquidity risk management standards, and factor such evaluations into a rating. The Fed should also urge examiners and economists to conduct more empirical analysis around supervisory ratings, Quarles said.
The SEC Has a Graph of the Wall Street Short-Term Loan Market that Blew Up: It Needs a Surgeon General Warning Before Viewing — Pam MartensIf you suffer from chronic nightmares, experience migraine headaches from stress, or have anger management issues when confronted with abject stupidity, you probably want to avoid looking at the above graph that the Securities and Exchange Commission has created to show how one of the most critical financial markets in the United States functions. Or perhaps we should say, why it’s incapable of functioning when it’s most needed. The market is Wall Street’s Short-Term Funding Market which includes its integral repurchase agreement (repo) market. The repo market blew up in 2008 during the last financial crisis and required a Fed bailout. It blew up again on September 17, 2019 for reasons that have yet to be credibly explained and required at least $9 trillion in cumulative emergency loans from the Federal Reserve over the next six months. As wereported yesterday, the Fed appears to still be propping up that market while not reporting those Fed loans to the American people. The SEC’s graph above is part of a report the SEC released in October titled “U.S. Credit Markets Interconnectedness and the Effects of the COVID-19 Economic Shock.” The report makes no mention of the fact that the repo market blew up on September 17, 2019 – months before there was a COVID-19 case reported anywhere in the world. Everything in the SEC’s report is framed around the idea that the COVID-19 pandemic caused all of the dislocations in the repo and related short-term funding markets. (For an in-depth look at the actual events as they unfolded beginning on September 17, 2019, see our archive of articles on this topic.)The SEC report describes the repo loan market as follows: “The approximately $4 trillion repo market provides secured, short-term, marked-to-market funding against various forms of securities collateral. The collateral from several short- and long-term funding markets and participants connects the repo market to the rest of the financial system. The repo market is a critical source of liquidity and, accordingly, essential to the ongoing operations of various market participants, including market makers in virtually all sectors of the capital markets.“A repo contract in essence offers an interest-bearing cash loan against securities collateral, but the contract can also be structured to borrow securities … [ … ] The SEC admits in its report that the following can happen when there is high leverage at hedge funds: “Collateral valuation affects the functioning of the repo market. Under normal market conditions, collateral securities are subject to relatively low and stable haircuts. Low levels of haircuts may enable repo borrowers such as hedge funds to assume significant leverage. Under less stable market conditions, the risk profile of collateral securities increases as holders of the collateral face greater uncertainty regarding the price at which they can liquidate the collateral if the borrower defaults. To protect themselves from potential losses, repo lenders may demand more substantial haircuts. This, in turn, could force repo borrowers to sell some of their positions in securities to reduce funding needs. In a feedback loop, such forced sales can exert additional pressure on collateral valuation as prices of securities decline further and lead to further increases in collateral haircuts.” The SEC report also goes into the incestuous relationship between the mega Wall Street banks that finance and execute the monster trades for the biggest hedge funds. This is known as “Prime Brokerage.”
New CBA chair’s wish list for the Biden administration – The coronavirus pandemic catapulted banks to the forefront of economic relief efforts, and the industry’s success in facilitating financial support for consumers and small businesses has made 2020 in some ways a banner year for banking. But the hardest work may be yet to come, says the chair of the Consumer Bankers Association. “We know the Biden administration has said they’re expecting a dark winter,” said Christine Channels, the head of community banking and client protection at Bank of America, who took the reins of the CBA board in October. “There’s a lot of positive news around the vaccines – and certainly, we’re excited about that – but we know that people need access to more money. We know that small businesses are needing access to this money.” In a wide-ranging interview, Channels touted the performance of CBA members in delivering aid to small businesses through the Paycheck Protection Program. Thirteen of the 15 top PPP lenders are part of the trade organization, including BofA. “It’s been a very tumultuous year for all of us, but we’re really proud of the way the banks’ response has been here to help not just our consumers, but the overall country.”Although the deadline has passed for the Small Business Administration to approve new PPP loans, some small-business advocates in Congress want to authorize another round of PPP in a future stimulus package. And many in the industry want policymakers to take further steps to simplify the process for small-business borrowers requesting loan forgiveness in the PPP. Channels said bankers hope President-elect Joe Biden’s administration will focus on PPP forgiveness after taking office in January. “If the Biden administration were to adjust the forgiveness process for those small businesses, it would make a significant impact,” she said. “The CBA has been advocating that for businesses with $150,000 or less in loans, that they simplify that process for those small businesses so that it’s not a burden on them.” Weighing in on the banking policy environment, Channels said the industry is committed to modernizing the Community Reinvestment Act but is urging regulators to develop a consistent CRA reform framework across all agencies. She also expressed hope that regulators will be cautious about approving bank charters for fintech firms whose investment in their compliance programs do not equal that of banks. “We’ve got a lot of innovation happening among new fintechs and other companies coming forward, and banks are evolving and innovating,” Channels said. “And I think it’s important that the rules by which we operate, the oversight that we have, continues to be strong.” “It’s important that we don’t lose that as a whole if we’re bringing in new businesses like fintech that aren’t investing in those same practices and don’t have that same level of oversight,” Channels added, “so that at the end of the day, the consumer is the one that is protected and can trust in a strong system.” The following is from a conversation with Channels that has been edited for length and clarity.
MBA Survey: “Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 5.54%” – Note: This is as of November 29th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 5.54%: The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained unchanged relative to the prior week at 5.54% as of November 29, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.8 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. .. “After two weeks of increases, the share of loans in forbearance was unchanged for the week that included Thanksgiving. A small decline in forbearances for GSE loans was offset by increases for Ginnie Mae and portfolio loans,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “While new forbearance requests declined for the week, exits slowed to a new low for the series.” Added Fratantoni, “The job market data for November showed an economic recovery that was slowing in response to the latest surge in COVID-19 cases. It is not surprising to see the rate of forbearance exits slow, as households that needed forbearance assistance in October may be in even greater need now.” … By stage, 19.81% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 77.90% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 2.29% are forbearance re-entries. This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last few months. The MBA notes: “Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased relative to the prior week: from 0.11% to 0.08%.”
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased Slightly, New Starts Increased Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.This data is as of December 8th. From Black Knight: New Forbearance Starts Increase as Overall Volumes See First Monthly Rise Since Early June In the past week, our McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker found that forbearance volumes in the U.S. edged lower (-12,000), including an improvement of 13,000 among portfolio/PLS loans in forbearance and 2,000 among GSE loans. These improvements were partially offset by a rise of 3,000 among FHA/VA forbearance plans. As of Dec. 8, 5.2% (2.75 million) of all mortgages were in active forbearance, including 3.5% of GSE loans, 9.3% of FHA/VA loans, and 5.1% of PLS/portfolio loans….Despite the marginal weekly improvement, forbearance volumes are now up 21,000 month-over-month, marking the first monthly increase since the onset of the recovery in late May/early June. This increase is due in part to limited forbearance expiration activity in November, which has resulted in reduced forbearance removal activity in early December compared to previous months.More noticeably – and potentially concerning – is the fact that forbearance plan starts have begun to trend upward. There were more than 40,000 first-time starts over the past week, representing homeowners who had not yet been in a COVID-19 forbearance plan, the highest such number of first-time starts since the beginning of September.The increase suggests that rising COVID-19 case rates and measures undertaken to try to control the spread may be contributing to an increased need for forbearance assistance. New starts are now up 19% over the past two weeks, while overall starts (including restarts) are up 5% over the same period..
Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for October: “2020 On Pace to See More than 9 Million Refinance Transactions” — Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for October today. According to Black Knight, 6.44% of mortgages were delinquent in October, down from 6.66% of mortgages in September, and up from 3.39% in October 2019. Black Knight also reported that 0.33% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.48% a year ago. This gives a total of 6.77% delinquent or in foreclosure. Press Release: 2020 On Pace to See More than 9 Million Refinance Transactions; 82% of Refinancing Borrowers Not Retained: This month, the company looked into Q3 2020 mortgage originations – with a focus on refinance lending – and mortgage servicers’ success in retaining the business of refinancing homeowners. As Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske explained, while Q3 2020 quarterly origination volumes broke records across the board, retention rates have suffered amid the surge of lending activity. “As our rate lock data had suggested last month, Q3 2020 originations hit record highs in purchase, refinance and overall lending as record-low mortgage rates and a delay to the normal spring home-buying season spurred both the purchase and refinance markets,” said Graboske. “Some 2.7 million homeowners refinanced their first-lien mortgages in the third quarter, bringing the total through September 2020 to 6.4 million. What’s more, consolidated rate lock data from Black Knight’s Compass Analytics and Optimal Blue divisions suggests that number could climb above 9 million by year’s end. And, with rates continuing to sit at record lows, refinance incentive remains at historic highs. As of the last week of November, 19.4 million 30-year mortgage holders could likely both qualify for and benefit from a refinance.Here is a graph from the Mortgage Monitor that shows first lien refinance activity. From Black Knight:
Through the first three quarters of the year, some 6.4 million homeowners have refinanced their primary mortgage, with that number on pace to climb above 9 million by the end of the year
While cash-out activity has ridden the wave higher, cash-outs only made up 27% of Q3 refinance lending, the lowest such share in seven years
The average cash-out amount fell to $51,600 (from $63,000 in Q2), pushing the volume of equity withdrawn in Q3 to down $37 billion, the lowest such equity withdrawal volume since Q2 2019
This suggests cashing out equity was a distant second priority to borrowers locking in record low rates as their primary driver to refinance.
Delinquencies improved in October, falling to 6.44%, their lowest level since March
Despite five consecutive months of improvement, there are still nearly 2X as many delinquent mortgages (+1.6 million/+91%) as there were entering 2020
Serious delinquencies (90+ Days) improved in October as well, but volumes remain at more than 5x (+1.8M) their pre-pandemic levels
Though COVID-19 case rates are rising across the country, new delinquencies remain below the three-month average and have been unaffected by these surges, at least for now
There is much more in the mortgage monitor.
CoreLogic: 1.6 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q3 2020 — From CoreLogic: Home Equity Reaches Record Highs: Homeowners Gained Over $1 Trillion in Equity in Q3 2020, CoreLogic Reports: CoreLogic … today released the Home Equity Report for the third quarter of 2020. The report shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 63% of all properties) have seen equity increase by 10.8% year over year, representing a collective equity gain of $1 trillion, and an average gain of $17,000 per homeowner, since the third quarter of 2019. This marks the largest average equity gain since the first quarter of 2014. Despite the economic impact of the pandemic, home prices soared throughout the summer and fall. Appreciation reached its highest level since 2014 in the third quarter of 2020 as prospective homebuyers continued to compete for the low supply of homes on the market, pushing home equity to record levels. Equity gains are likely to persist over the next several months as strong home-purchase demand is expected to remain high and continue pushing prices up. However, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast shows home prices slowing over the next 12 months as new home construction and more existing for-sale homes ease supply pressures. This could moderate the pace of both home price growth and equity gains. Negative equity, also referred to as underwater or upside down, applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth. As of the third quarter of 2020, negative equity share, and the quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year changes, were as follows:
Quarterly change: From the second quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of 2020, the total number of mortgaged homes in negative equity decreased by 6.9% to 1.6 million homes or 3% of all mortgaged properties.
Annual change: In the third quarter of 2019, 2 million homes, or 3.7% of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity. This number decreased by 18.3%, or 370,000 properties, in the third quarter of 2020 to 1.6 million mortgaged properties in negative equity.
National aggregate value: The national aggregate value of negative equity was approximately $283.3 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2020. This is down quarter over quarter by approximately $2.2 billion, or 0.8%, from $285.5 billion in the second quarter of 2020, and down year over year by approximately $21.4 billion, or 7%, from $304.7 billion in the third quarter of 2019.
This graph from CoreLogic compares Q3 to Q2 2020 equity distribution by LTV. There are still quite a few properties with LTV over 125%. But most homeowners have a significant amount of equity. This is a very different picture than at the start of the housing bust when many homeowners had little equity.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey –From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey – Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 4, 2020. The previo us week’s results included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday…. The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 89 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 29 percentcompared with the previous week and was 22 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Refinance activity increased last week in response to mortgage rates for 30-year, 15-year, and FHA loans hitting their lowest levels in MBA’s survey. The increase in refinance applications was driven by FHA and VA refinances, while conventional activity fell slightly. The ongoing refinance wave has continued through the fall, with activity last week up 89 percent from a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The purchase market is also poised to finish 2020 on a strong note. Applications fell slightly last week but were around 3 percent higher than the two weeks leading up to Thanksgiving. Reversing the recent trend, there was also a shift in the composition of purchase applications, with an increase in government loans pushing the average loan balance lower.”..The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) decreased to a survey low of 2.90 percent from 2.92 percent, with points increasing to 0.35 from 0.31 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.
NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Decreased 7.8% YoY in Early December – From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 75.4 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of December 6: The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 75.4 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by December 6 in its survey of 11.5 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country. This is a 7.8 percentage point, or 894,864 household decrease from the share who paid rent through December 6, 2019 and compares to 80.4 percent that had paid by November 6, 2020. It should be noted that December 5th and 6th fell on a weekend in 2020 and therefore may not be a direct comparison to last year’s figures. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price. “While the initial rent collection figures for the first week of December are concerning, only a full month’s results will paint a complete picture. However, it should not come as a surprise that a rising number of households are struggling to make ends meet. As the nation enters a winter with increasing COVID-19 case levels and even greater economic distress – as indicated by last week’s disquieting employment report – it is only a matter of time before both renters and housing providers reach the end of their resources,” This graph from the NMHC Rent Payment Tracker shows the percent of household making full or partial rent payments by the 6th of the month. This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties. The second graph shows full month payments through November. This shows a decline in rent payments year-over-year, and somewhat more of a decline over the last several months. CR Note: There are some timing issues month to month, but rent payments appear to be declining, and December is off to a slow start.
Millions of Tenants ‘Headed for Absolute Disaster’ After New Year, Owing Average of Nearly $6,000 in Rent and Utilities – Without a coronavirus relief package centered on helping working families who have lost jobs and watched their savings dwindle amid the pandemic, millions of people are “headed for absolute disaster,” one observer said Monday as Moody’s Analytics reported that 12 million renters are expected to owe an average of $5,850 in back rent and utilities after the new year.The financial firm reported that $70 billion could be owed to landlords in January, after a federal moratorium on evictions – put in place in September by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in the absence of any action from the Republican-led Senate aimed at helping working people – expires on December 31.”Renters will owe up to $70 billion in back rent when eviction moratorium expires, more than they can possibly pay … Congress must extend the moratorium and provide rent relief now.” – Diane Yentel, National Low Income Housing Coalition. According to the Washington Post, many landlords have begun filing paperwork to evict struggling tenants already and others have joined renters in appealing to Congress for significant unemployment benefits and another round of $1,200 direct payments to Americans.Separately from Moody’s, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported in October that 1.3 million households that have faced unemployment during the pandemic owed an average of $5,400 in back payments to landlords and utilities. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 29% of Black renters and 17% of Latino renters are behind in payments, and 21% of families with children have been pushed into debt.Some families have been forced to begin selling their belongings since the Republican-led Senate allowed weekly unemployment benefits of $600 expire in July, according to the Post. Lawmakers on Monday were negotiating a new aid package after a bipartisan group of senators introduced a$908 billion bill last week.According to Post reporter Jeff Stein, the package currently includes a $300 weekly payment which would be offered only from January to April, with no retroactive payments to help families who owe rent and other payments from recent months. The package includes $25 billion for rental housing assistance – far less than what’s expected to be owed by families in January and only half of what the House Democrats’ HEROES Act includes for low-income renters – and a proposal by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) did not include anything for struggling renters.”This is like a Charles Dickens novel,” Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors’ Association, told the Post. “It’s an evolving story of how people at the bottom are suffering.”
San Francisco Rents Plunge 35% As Exodus Continues –The median rent for a studio apartment in San Francisco plunged 35% in November from a year earlier, to $2,100, while costs for one-bedrooms slumped 27% to $2,716, according to Bloomberg, citing a new report from Realtor.com. Declining rents is more confirmation of the exodus from the Bay Area(as we’ve noted: here & here) as remote working allows city dwellers to leave the metro area for suburbs, Lake Tahoe, and elsewhere. Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist, said San Francisco-based technology “companies have been among the most flexible with allowing people to work remotely, and a lot of workers are taking advantage of that.” Hale expects rents in the Bay Area to eventually recover, though it depends on how quickly people return to the office. But with Contra Costa, San Francisco, and Santa Clara counties, all recording the most COVID-19 cases since the start of the pandemic – tech workers returning to offices might not be happening anytime soon. As the work from home future marches on – companies are already scaling back on office space. Real estate firm CBRE said San Francisco’s office vacancy rate has doubled this year to 8.3%, resulting in office rents dropping by at least 9%. According to Bloomberg, Pinterest Inc. paid a $90 million penalty to terminate a lease at an office building in the downtown area because it wanted to “rethink where future employees could be based.” Other companies like Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. and Charles Schwab Corp. are leaving California for lower-cost states. With major corporations also packing up their bags, this means workers will do the same, and continue to pressure rents in the Bay Area.
Home Ownership Rate: 67.2% in Q3 — The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q3. The seasonally adjusted rate for Q3 is 67.2 percent, up from Q2 2020. The nonseasonally adjusted Q3 number is 67.4 percent, down from the Q2 2020 67.9 percent figure. Over the last decade, the general trend has been consistent: The rate of homeownership continued to struggle. The recent recession as a result of the COVID-19 global pandemic has caused a massive, but brief, jump in homeownership due to grossly reduced spending.Here’s an excerpt from the press release: Due to the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), data collection operations for the CPS/HVS were affected during the third quarter of 2020, as in-person interviews were only allowed for portions of the sample In July (41 percent), August (53 percent), and September (100 percent). The remaining interviews were conducted over the telephone. If the Field Representative was unable to get contact information on the sample unit, the unit was made a Type A noninterview (no one home, refusal, etc). We are unable to determine the extent to which this data collection change affected our estimates. See the FAQ for more information.National vacancy rates in the third quarter 2020 were 6.4 percent for rental housing and 0.9 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 6.4 percent was 0.4 percentage points lower than the rate in the third quarter 2019 (6.8 percent) and 0.7 percentage points higher than the rate in the second quarter 2020 (5.7 percent). The homeowner vacancy rate of 0.9 percent was 0.5 percentage points lower than the rate in the third quarter 2019 (1.4 percent) and virtually unchanged from the rate in the second quarter 2020 (0.9 percent).The homeownership rate of 67.4 percent was 2.6 percentage points higher than the rate in the third quarter 2019 (64.8 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2020 (67.9 percent).The Census Bureau has been tracking the nonseasonally adjusted data since 1965. Their seasonally adjusted version only goes back to 1980. Here is a snapshot of the nonseasonally adjusted series with a 4-quarter moving average to highlight the trend.
Toll Brothers Says Housing Market “Strongest In 30 Years” As Wealthy Buy McMansions In Suburbs – Luxury home builder Toll Brothers’ Chief Executive Officer Douglas Yearley said in the company’s earnings statement this week that the housing market is one of the “strongest” in decades. “We are currently experiencing the strongest housing market I have seen in my 30 years at Toll Brothers and we continue to increase prices in nearly all of our communities as we focus on driving profitability and managing growth,” Yearley said. He spoke of record-low interest rates, limited housing supply, a “renewed appreciation for the home as a sanctuary,” and remote working that has pushed home buyers into more luxurious homes as reasons for the market’s strength. “The work-from-home phenomenon is also enabling more buyers to live where they want,” he said. As wealthy folks, many of whom have been unscathed by the virus-induced recession, are fleeing metro areas for rural communities, have been responsible for the surge in luxury homebuying. Bloomberg notes demand for million-dollar homes is accelerating faster than any other tier in the housing market this year. October mortgage applications for homes priced above $766k soared 59%, the largest gain for all segments measured by the Mortgage Bankers Association. For the $150,000 to $300,000, the increase was roughly 13%.
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased in November -From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Steps Lower in November: The Dodge Momentum Index fell 2.6% in November to 123.3 (2000=100) from the revised October reading of 126.5. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. The institutional component of the Momentum Index fell 4.4%, while the commercial component lost 1.6%. Since the expiration of support programs in the CARES Act, the economy has struggled to maintain traction and in its wake planning for nonresidential building projects has slowed. As the next wave of COVID-19 infections quickly approaches economic growth and job gains will ease further. Additionally, uncertainty over the potential for further federal stimulus has significantly complicated the recovery and will continue to negatively impact nonresidential building throughout the planning and construction processes. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 123.3 in November, down from 126.5 in October. According to Dodge, this index leads “construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year”. This index suggests a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 37.9% Year-over-year -From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 5 December: U.S. weekly hotel occupancy increased slightly from the previous week, according to the latest data from STR through 5 December. 29 November through 5 December 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):
Occupancy: 37.4% (-37.9%)
Average daily rate (ADR): US$86.21 (-33.1%)
Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$32.23 (-58.4%)
With slightly higher demand after Thanksgiving, occupancy improved after several weeks of lowering levels. With a tougher year-over-year comparable, however, the country’s RevPAR decline was its worst since late June.Since there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate – see graph below – we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement. This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020:This suggests no improvement over the last 3 months. The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels – before 2020).Seasonally we’d expect the occupancy rate to decline into the new year. .
82% Of Americans Say They Couldn’t Afford $500 Emergency Thanks To COVID-19 — A recent survey of 2,000 Americans carried out by “innovation consultancy” Highland took a close look at how personal finances and spending habits have changed since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, which crushed the US economy and has triggered a protracted downturn around the world. With the US labor market adding just 245K new jobs last month, a sign that the sharp rebound from the chaos of March has already run its course, and millions of Americans waiting on more stimulus from Washington, the share of people living check to check has expanded rapidly. Even before the pandemic, a staggering percentage of Americans didn’t have enough cash on hand for an unexpected hardship of $400. But what’s even worse for America’s consumption-driven economy is that a solid majority of Americans have reduced spending, some dramatically, as pandemic has made socialization difficult. According to the survey, 63% have cut back on spending since the start of the pandemic. Asked for their reasons, respondents cited the need to be more cautious with their finances (60%), experiencing a reduced salary or income (49%), and staying home more often (40%). For those who have cut back, 64% say they are spending less on dining out or takeout, 61% have reduced spending on entertainment such as concerts or movies, while 55% are buying less apparel and 52% are spending less on travel. It is interesting to note that 21% of respondents say they have been spending more since the pandemic. Of those respondents, 51% say they are buying more food or groceries, and 50% are buying more household supplies.After the unemployment rate spiked to more than 14% in April, Americans continue to be wary about their job security and income. According to respondents, more than a quarter feel they do not currently have a stable income, and 63% say they have been living paycheck to paycheck since the pandemic. Millennials appear to be the hardest hit demographic as 64% say they are living paycheck to paycheck.
BLS: CPI increased 0.2% in November, Core CPI Increased 0.2% – From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.2 percent before seasonal adjustment…. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in November after being unchanged the prior month. The indexes for lodging away from home, household furnishings and operations, recreation, apparel, airline fares, and motor vehicle insurance all increased in November. The indexes for used cars and trucks, medical care, and new vehicles all declined over the month. The all items index rose 1.2 percent for the 12 months ending November, the same increase as for the period ending October. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.6 percent over the last 12 months, also the same increase as the period ending October. The food index rose 3.7 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index fell 9.4 percent. Overall inflation was slightly higher than expectations in November. I’ll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.
Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Softened in November –The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% November. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in November. “The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report”. Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for November here. Car and Truck rentals and Lodging away from home increased sharply in November.This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.3%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.1%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.6%. Core PCE is for October and increased 1.4% year-over-year. Overall inflation will not be a concern during the crisis.
Consumer Price Index: November Core at 1.65% – The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.17%, down incrementally from 1.18% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.65%, up from 1.61% the previous month and below the Fed’s 2% PCE target.Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was broad-based, with no component accounting for more than a quarter of the increase. The food index declined in November, as a decrease in the food at home index more than offset a small increase in the food away from home index. The index for energy rose in November, as increases in indexes for natural gas and electricity more than offset a decline in the index for gasoline.The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in November after being unchanged the prior month. The indexes for lodging away from home, household furnishings and operations, recreation, apparel, airline fares, and motor vehicle insurance all increased in November. The indexes for used cars and trucks, medical care, and new vehicles all declined over the month.The all items index rose 1.2 percent for the 12 months ending November, the same increase as for the period ending October. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.6 percent over the last 12 months, also the same increase as the period ending October. The food index rose 3.7 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index fell 9.4 percent. Read moreInvesting.com was looking for a 0.1% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.2% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 1.1% for Headline and 1.6% for Core. The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve’s Core inflation target for the CPI’s cousin index, the BEA’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.
November Producer Price Index: Core Final Demand Up 0.1% MoM – This morning’s release of the November Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand was at 0.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted, down from a 0.3% increase last month. It is at 0.8% year-over-year, up from 0.5% last month, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Core Final Demand (less food and energy) came in at 0.1% MoM, unchanged from the previous month and is up 1.4% YoY NSA. Investing.com MoM consensus forecasts were for 0.2% headline and 0.2% core.Here is the summary of the news release on Final Demand:The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.1 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.3 percent in October and 0.4 percent in September. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 0.8 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since moving up 1.1 percent for the 12 months ended in February.In November, the rise in the final demand index can be traced to a 0.4-percent increase in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services was unchanged.The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 0.1 percent in November, the seventh consecutive increase. For the 12 months ended in November, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.9 percent, the largest rise since a 1.0-percent increase for the 12 months ended in March. More … The BLS shifted its focus to its new “Final Demand” series in 2014, a shift we support. However, the data for these series are only constructed back to November 2009 for Headline and April 2010 for Core. Since our focus is on longer-term trends, we continue to track the legacy Producer Price Index for Finished Goods, which the BLS also includes in their monthly updates. As this (older) overlay illustrates, the Final Demand and Finished Goods indexes are highly correlated.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased sharply to 853,000 – The DOL reported: In the week ending December 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 853,000, an increase of 137,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 4,000 from 712,000 to 716,000. The 4-week moving average was 776,000, an increase of 35,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,000 from 739,500 to 740,500. This does not include the 427,609 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 288,234 the previous week. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 776,000. The previous week was revised up. The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week). At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined. Continued claims increased to 5,757,000 (SA) from 5,527,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates. Note: There are an additional 8,555,763 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 8,869,502 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. An additional 4,532,876 are receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) that decreased from 4,569,016 the previous week. These last two programs are set to expire on December 26th. This was higher than expected.
BLS: Job Openings “Little Changed” at 6.7 Million in October –From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary: The number of job openings was little changed at 6.7 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 5.8 million while total separations increased to 5.1 million. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2.2 percent while the layoffs and discharges rate increased to 1.2 percent. The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.This series started in December 2000.Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for October, the most recent employment report was for November. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs – when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.The huge spikes in layoffs and discharges in March and April 2020 are labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.Jobs openings increased in October to 6.652 million from 6.494 million in September.The number of job openings (yellow) were down 9.0% year-over-year.Quits were down 10% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for “quits”).Job openings were little changed in September, and are down YoY – and quits are down sharply YoY.
U.S. Job Openings Slipped in Early December – WSJ -The number of job openings in the U.S. edged down slightly in the first week of December, a sign of a softening labor market amid an upsurge in coronavirus infections and ebbing fiscal support for households.There were an average of 10.7 million job openings posted each day on online sites across the U.S. this month, down slightly from November’s 10.9 million, according to data from job-search site ZipRecruiter shared with The Wall Street Journal.The figures are the latest signs that the economic recovery under way since the spring is cooling. Job growth slowed markedly in November from the month before, the Labor Department reported Friday. Employers added 245,000 jobs last month, down from 610,000 in October, the Labor Department said. One measure of hiring – the share of LinkedIn members who added a new employer to their profiles, indexed to the monthly average in 2015-2016 – rose 0.8% in November, compared with October. The index jumped 18.1% from September to October.”I’m worried about a temporary stall or backslide as we move into December and January,” said Guy Berger, LinkedIn’s principal economist. He cited a “triple whammy” of factors weighing on the labor market: fading fiscal support for households, spiraling coronavirus cases, and new restrictions on business and households to control the spread of infection. “It’s really a question of how much businesses are feeling a crunch and adjusting head count versus ‘I see a light at the end of the tunnel so I’m willing to keep the hiring pipeline open even in these tough winter months,'”. The U.S. seven-day moving average of new Covid-19 cases surpassed 200,000 for the first time on Monday, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Johns Hopkins data – three times the rate at the peak of the summer surge. More than 104,000 people were hospitalized with the disease as of Tuesday, according to the Covid Tracking Project, surpassing the peaks of previous surges in April and July. The country is now averaging 2,200 deaths a day, close to the peak reached in the pandemic’s early months. “How disruptive this latest surge is – that’s hard to say exactly, but clearly it’s going to be,” said Josh Wright, chief economist at Wrightside Advisors, noting that companies in many industries have learned to operate with minimal in-person interaction since the spring. “But we’ve seen a preview of this, we know which direction it points in and we know it’s not the right one.” Hiring for lower-wage jobs, such as those in restaurants, is likely to be more vulnerable than higher-wage work to a drop in activity driven by the virus and related business restrictions, said Mr. Wright.
Business and Related Restrictions Appear to Curb COVID-19 Fatality Growth, But Some Do Not – Policymakers face the unenviable task of trading off the benefits of restrictions that can slow the spread of COVID-19 against their economic costs. A growing body of research aims to aid the decision making by relating a variety of policies to COVID-19 cases and fatalities. For example, Dehning et al. (2020) report evidence that social distancing measures, school closures, and retail closures slowed the growth of cases in Germany. Hsaing et al. (2020) examine large-scale policy interventions such as travel bans, lockdowns, and gathering limits in an international setting. They report substantial declines in COVID-19 case growth when these policies are in effect.In the US, state and county policies varied widely, as did the growth in fatalities due to COVID-19. This column examines US business policies to help shed light on which policies save more lives. Stay-at-home orders, mandatory mask requirements, beach and park closures, restaurant closures, and high-risk (Level 2) business closures most consistently predict lower fatality growth four to six weeks ahead. Closures of low- and medium-risk businesses do not appear effective and, despite their costs, may even be counterproductive.
Sixth worker dies from COVID-19 at FCA’s Warren Truck plant – At least one more worker from the paint shop at FCA’s Warren Truck Assembly Plant (WTAP) north of Detroit has died of COVID-19, according to reports from workers. This is at least the sixth death from the virus at WTAP, following four deaths by April and that of newly hired Temporary Part Time (TPT) worker Stevie Brown last month, making WTAP the deadliest plant among the Detroit Three’s factories in the US during the pandemic, based on the limited data on workers’ deaths available. At least one worker at the adjacent Warren Stamping Plant also succumbed to COVID-19 in the spring. Both the worker who died most recently, Stephanie Weems, and Stevie Brown worked in WTAP’s paint department. According to workers, from late September to November eight teams with six to eight workers each had been sent home from WTAP to quarantine. Weems’ death is a tragedy, a worker at WTAP told the WSWS Autoworker Newsletter. “It could have been prevented. The factories ought to be shut down and workers compensated for lost time until we get this virus under control.” Further details about Stephanie are as yet unknown, along with the status of the other employees who worked with Stevie in the blackout area of the paint shop, where freshly painted vehicles are sent to cure before being re-introduced to the assembly line. The deaths of Stephanie Weems and Stevie Brown have not been reported by the company nor the union, but they are a clear indication that the pandemic is out of control in the plants. FCA is determined to keep the public, and most importantly, its thousands of employees in the dark about the extent of the outbreak raging through its factories. Spiraling outbreaks have been revealed in recent weeks at FCA’sSterling Heights Assembly Plant, where one worker, Mark Bianchi, also died, and Sterling Stamping, both just a few miles north of WTAP. Over 20 cases each were also reported at General Motors’ Fort Wayne, Indiana, and Wentzville, Missouri, plants last week.
Employers debate whether to require COVID-19 vaccine for workers Companies will soon face a tough decision about whether to require their employees to get vaccinated for COVID-19 as a condition for returning to work.New polling shows that nearly 60 percent of Americans said they would get the vaccine, up from 50 percent in September but still far below the amount needed to fuel a robust economic recovery.Employers believe they are on firm legal ground to mandate vaccinations, but that doesn’t mean enforcement won’t be without its challenges, particularly given the backlash in some parts of the country to mask mandates and smaller groups opposed to vaccinations of any kind.”Companies can require it, yes, but they may bump up against legal limits. COVID is such uncharted territory that as we see employers acting, as we see others acting, more edges in the law are being articulated,” said Allison Hoffman, University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School professor.Some business groups are starting to get out in front of the issue by voicing public support for vaccination requirements.Jay Timmons, CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers, stressed that the vaccine is needed to protect essential personnel, including manufacturing workers, and that his group would back member companies implementing vaccination requirements.”While there are likely legal concerns with blanket mandates, if any of our members believed that a requirement at their company was the right thing to do, we would certainly support that within the bounds of the law. Because America’s future depends on folks rolling up our sleeves in a new way,” Timmons told The Hill.The legal limits that employers could run up against are related to the American Disabilities Act (ADA) and Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which allow for employee vaccination exemptions under certain health and religious reasons.The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) in March said an employer covered by the ADA and Title VII can’t compel all of its employees to take a vaccine.”The Commission continues to closely monitor the developments of a COVID-19 vaccine and is actively evaluating how a potential vaccine would interact with employers’ obligations under the Americans with Disabilities Act, Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, and the other laws the Commission enforces,” Christina Saah Nazer, an EEOC spokeswoman, told The Hill.
‘No Vaccine, No Work’ – Employers Discuss Making COVID Immunity Mandatory For Workers – Public opinion polls from the past couple of weeks appear to show a growing number of Americans are planning to get the coronavirus vaccine, even as Dr. Fauci hinted that the UK’s decision to grant emergency approval to Pfizer’s mRNA vaccine might have been somewhat “rushed”. A recent Goldman research note intended for its institutional clients showed as much, citing polling numbers from YouGov. With hospitalizations surging to record levels and California once again heading into lockdown, millions of Americans would probably gladly take the vaccine just to feel a sense that the pandemic is “over”, even though the duration of that immunity is still not very well understood, and some “conspiracy-minded” skeptics have raised question about the headline efficacy numbers.But as the US and UK prepare to start delivering the first jabs in a week, industries are jockeying to try and get their workers designated as “essential” so they can have faster access to the vaccine (for many, profits are ultimately on the line).Even though many Americans believe it’s morally reprehensible to fire someone for refusing to take a vaccine, some companies and industry groups are planning to require workers to be vaccinated as a precondition for returning to work. Maybe they think taking such a public stand might help them secure supplies for their vaccines more quickly.Whatever the reason, even for white collar workers who have been comfortably ensconced in their homes/apartments for the last nine months, the subtext is pretty clear: no vaccine, no work.
To avoid ‘the unimaginable,’ officials weigh new restrictions as COVID-19 cases and deaths surge = The third peak of COVID-19 outbreaks in the U.S. continues to surpass previous records, recording over 175,600 new COVID-19 cases and over 1,100 COVID-19-related fatalities on Sunday, CNBC reports today based on Johns Hopkins data. Other sources of national aggregated data report closer to just over 173,000 new cases, but documents a 15 percent increase in new cases over the past two weeks. Deaths and hospitalizations are rising nationally as well, as the country approaches two weeks since Thanksgiving. Regardless, the past month has recorded over 4.9 million new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. alone. In response, states have reimposed stay-at-home measures and stricter lockdowns in an attempt to curb virus transmission. “The unimaginable thing, that no one wants to see happen, that when you have such a strain on the beds, and on the personnel, the health-care personnel, that you are going to deprive people from the kind of care they need … We don’t want to go there,” Fauci said to CNN reporters on Friday. “If it requires doing more drastic things, or draconian things, like maybe some temporary shutdowns in some areas, I think some areas of the country are thinking about that.” Promising vaccine news is a silver lining, with officials forecasting that if the Pfizer vaccine is approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), first rounds of vaccination can begin on Friday. With high volumes of travelers recorded at airports over the Thanksgiving holiday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has discouraged traveling ahead of upcoming winter holidays.
Articles of impeachment filed against GOP Ohio governor over coronavirus orders –A group of Ohio Republicans has officially filed articles of impeachment against Gov. Mike DeWine (R) in response to his coronavirus orders. GOP state Rep. John Becker of Clermont County led a group including fellow Republican state Reps. Nino Vitale, Candice Keller and Paul Zeltwanger in filing 12 articles of impeachment against DeWine, calling it an “effort to restore the rule of law.” The allegations claim DeWine’s administration implemented unconstitutional orders in response to the pandemic. In a statement shared with local news outlets, Becker’s office blasted DeWine, alleging “mismanagement, malfeasance, misfeasance, abuse of power, and other crimes include, but are not limited to, meddling in the conduct of a presidential primary election, arbitrarily closing and placing curfews on certain businesses, while allowing other businesses to remain open.” The group of state Republican lawmakers argues that DeWine violated Ohioans’ civil liberties by issuing a stay-at-home order and requiring them to wear masks. They have argued that the face covering rule “promotes fear, turns neighbors against neighbors, and contracts the economy by making people fearful to leave their homes.” The lawmakers first threatened the articles of impeachment in August, announcing they were being drafted. A majority of the Ohio House of Representatives would need to approve the resolution, and then two-thirds of the Ohio Senate would have to vote to convict the governor.
California’s new COVID-19 restrictions place burden on workers and small business owners – New COVID-19 restrictions across several California counties began Sunday night, with more coming into effect over the next several days. Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom tied the measures to the proportion of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds available in several broad regions. The stay-at-home order places the entire burden of the pandemic on workers and small business owners, closing outdoor restaurants and restricting retail shops’ capacity without any financial compensation, while allowing major sources of transmission like large workplaces and factories to remain open for generating profits. While many schools in the state have moved to online instruction, part of the governor’s guidance is that schools that have reopened to in-person instruction will not be closed. In fifty-two of the fifty-eight counties in California, the pandemic is categorized as “widespread,” meaning that there are high positivity rates for COVID-19 tests and large numbers of cases per capita. Only 339,811 Californians live in counties where the virus is not widespread in a state of 40,129,160 people. California is now the worst-hit state in the United States, according to Johns Hopkins University, with well over 1.3 million cases as of Monday. New cases have increased by 84 percent in California in the past two weeks. The number of deaths in California has now nearly 20,000, with many cases likely uncounted. Los Angeles county broke single day infection records on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Sunday saw over 28,000 new COVID-19 cases, the highest recorded in a single day. Nearly one in ten Californians who are tested are positive. The new guidelines and restrictions suggest that residents refrain from holding out-of-household gatherings. Dining at restaurants, whether outdoor or indoor, is now prohibited, while outdoor religious services are exempt from restrictions. Film and television productions are also exempt. Retailers are allowed to conduct their business at 20 percent capacity as long as safety protocols are followed. Outdoor recreation facilities are allowed to remain open, as well as outdoor gym and fitness classes, while playgrounds will be off-limits for children. None of these new restrictions will have any meaningful impact on the spread of the disease throughout factories, schools and many offices. In fact, childcare, pre-kindergarten and K-12 schools that are conducting in-person instruction will remain open, regardless of the lack of intensive care beds.
Coronavirus outbreak at Amazon warehouse in Troutdale, Oregon exceeds 100 infections – As of the end of November, more than 100 infections have been reported in a major coronavirus outbreak at an Amazon warehouse in Troutdale, Oregon. The outbreak at the PDX9 Fulfillment Center, an 855,000-square-foot building, is still considered “active.” Oregon’s health authorities reported last week that since the start of the pandemic, there have been 61 deaths and 11,139 cases associated with workplace outbreaks in Oregon. The outbreak at Amazon’s Troutdale warehouse is the fourth largest in the state. The largest three are at prison complexes: the Snake River Correctional Institution in Ontario (550 cases); the Eastern Oregon Correctional Institution in Pendleton (520 cases); and the Oregon State Correctional Institution in Salem (192 cases). The PDX9 warehouse was, even before the coronavirus pandemic, among the most dangerous of all Amazon’s notoriously unsafe workplaces. According to Amazon’s own records, which were analyzed at the end of last year by thePortland Mercury newspaper, “26 out of every 100 workers at PDX9 sustained an injury in 2018.” This is the same warehouse where management is forcing workers to sign a broad “non-disclosure agreement,” which was the subject of a report last week in the Willamette Week newspaper. While Amazon’s practice of forcing workers to sign such agreements dates back many years and is not limited to the PDX9 warehouse, these agreements take on a new dimension in the context of the coronavirus pandemic.Throughout the pandemic, Amazon management has sought to conceal the extent of infections in order to lull workers into a false sense of security. When workers demanded specific information regarding their workplaces, management insisted that the data was protected by privacy laws and refused to make it available. Spontaneous walkouts and sickouts over the spring and summer were frequently triggered by workers’ independent discovery of a case that had been covered up by management.
Religion and COVID: at odds? — Two weeks ago, the Supreme Court ruled against New York’s most recent COVID-19-related restrictions on houses of worship, a win for religious freedom. But was it also a loss for public health? The tensions between religious freedom and public health were high at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and are on the rise yet again as we enter the holiday season. COVID-19 made church as we know it difficult, if not impossible. As Massachusetts prepared to lift the COVID-19 lockdown in May, over 250 pastors urged the governor to include churches in the first phase of reopening. Some clergy argued that religious organizations are essential businesses and should be opened quickly. (The governor did honor this and included churches in phase one.) “Churches are absolutely essential,” said Clay Myatt, a pastor in Brockton, Massachusetts. “We offer community, justice, and, perhaps above all, hope during crisis.” Plus, we have a constitutional right to religious expression. (To this end, some churches have deliberately defied gathering restrictions.) Stay-at-home orders – though justified as states sought to protect their residents’ health – seemed at odds with the freedom to worship. Religious freedom and public health don’t have to be in conflict, but they may require a bit of give and take. Unfortunately, there is risk associated with in-person activities like religious services. Large indoor gatheringsare perfect for spreading COVID-19 and there are many examples of outbreaks in churches that ignored the warnings. But the risk of infection is not insurmountable. If religious leaders care for their congregants’ spiritual and emotional health, it’s fair to say they care for their physical health, too. R. Steven Warner, another Brockton pastor, agreed, arguing that caring for our physical health is biblical, or required. Taking extra precautions during the pandemic is just another way to do that. In the long term, however, virtual church is not sustainable. Separation from our spiritual homes takes asignificant toll, not mention the constitutional concerns. As we approach the holiday season full of religious celebrations, how do we balance both religious freedom and the public’s health? In a word, cooperation. In another, compromise. Religious leaders must prioritize the health of their congregations with stringent cleaning and safety protocols. Full compliance with COVID-19 guidelines will respect the value of religious expression while still protecting the congregation’s health. At the same time, public health and government leaders must prioritize the spiritual health of their communities by keeping churches open when possible. Initial stay-at-home orders were justified and necessary but many would have viewed any further delay to reopening churches as a violation of constitutional rights. Future shutdowns will likely be viewed the same way. Local leaders would be remiss to ignore this; there is a clear need for spiritual connection during these difficult times.
Stop government attack on COVID-19 whistleblower Rebekah Jones! – The Socialist Equality Party condemns the fascistic police raid on the home of data scientist Rebekah Jones, which came in response to her work exposing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Florida and in schools across the US. Florida state police barged into Jones’ home Monday with guns aimed at her and her family. They seized her phone, computer and several hard drives, preventing her from continuing to publish data on COVID-19 outbreaks. After the raid Jones tweeted: “They pointed a gun in my face. They pointed guns at my kids… This was DeSantis. He sent the gestapo.” Jones tweeted Friday that she has learned that Circuit Judge Joshua Hawkes was appointed by Florida’s Republican Governor Ron DeSantis in September, and one of his first acts as a judge was to sign the search warrant that led to the seizure of her technology. DeSantis is among the most prominent backers of US President Donald Trump, who has spearheaded the ruling class policy of “herd immunity” through the opening of non-essential businesses and schools. Jones told CNN that flash drives seized by the police contained proof that Florida officials “were lying in January about things like internal reports and notices from the CDC,” as well as “evidence of illegal activities by the state.” This brazen act of suppression of the rights to free speech and access to information must be opposed! The working class in the US and internationally must come to the defense of Jones and all whistleblowers, and fight for the full transparency and reporting of all data on COVID-19! A former employee at the Florida Department of Health, Jones is among the most prominent data scientists in the US. Using advanced geographic information system (GIS) technology, Jones helped create Florida’s COVID-19 dashboard to carefully track the spread of the pandemic in the state. Shortly thereafter, she was fired in May for refusing to manipulate data to support DeSantis’ escalating back-to-work and back-to-school campaigns. After being fired from her position, Jones went on to help create and oversee Florida COVID Action and The COVID Monitor, the most comprehensive databases for tracking COVID-19 infections and deaths in Florida and in K-12 schools across the US, respectively. Jones was targeted due to her role with these projects, and for being an outspoken critic of DeSantis and Trump. She has consistently warned against the reckless policy of reopening schools amid the raging pandemic. The specific allegation made against Jones that led to Monday’s police raid was that she was responsible for an email being sent to Florida’s Department of Health employees imploring them to “speak up before another 17,000 people are dead,” which Jones denies having sent. She asserts that, in part, officials seized her devices to determine what contacts she has within the Department of Health, who will in turn likely be victimized in the near future.
Polarized Pandemic Response and Covid-19 Connectedness Across US States -Balancing the trade-off between strict public health measures and economic activity has been the key concern for governments since the Covid-19 outbreak. While strict measures impose high economic costs, they may play an important role in containing the spread of the virus, and consequently in preventing a more prolonged and costly reduction in economic activity (Furman 2020, Odendahl and Springford 2020). In the case of the US, the federal government showed a lax response to the pandemic, focusing on the economic impact rather than the rapidly increasing cases of Covid-19 and the death toll. The resulting public debate politicised the federal and state-level public health policies and led to the formation of demarcation lines across the party lines in a year of presidential elections. In a new paper (Akovali and Yilmaz 2020), we study the substantial differences in state-level responses leading to a wide variation in the new Covid-19 case trajectories across the country. Our work adds to the recent literature by demonstrating the close association between government policy and community mobility responses to the pandemic and the trajectories of new Covid-19 cases as well as their connectedness/spillovers across the US. This column studies Covid-19 infections and their connectedness across US states. It finds that states with lax government policy and community mobility response had higher case growth trajectories and generated connectedness of Covid-19 cases to other states. Further, states with Republican governors tend to have higher connectedness of Covid-19 cases among themselves and generate net connectedness to states with Democratic governors.
The unseen plight of undocumented workers in the US during the pandemic — Making up nearly 6 percent of the American workforce, undocumented workers fuel industries like agriculture, manufacturing, meatpacking and animal husbandry, as well as the broader service industry, which includes food services, building and outdoor maintenance, and construction. Across the United States, more than 2.5 million farm workers and almost 2 million food service workers are undocumented immigrants, constituting almost half of all farm workers in the United States and almost a quarter of food service work. Undocumented workers provide up to 30 percent of the labor in the service industry in California. Despite the “essential” label tacked onto these industries during the pandemic, the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration has refused to require or enforce any kind of COVID-19 safety measures for workers. COVID-19 has ripped through the agricultural industry and its “essential” workers. Research by Purdue University estimates that more than 145,000 farm workers have tested positive for COVID-19. This number, while staggering, does not include temporary laborers as well as those who could not be tested – most likely undocumented workers. The Immokalee Region of southern Florida, a region known for its significant immigrant population and year-round tomato growing, reported more than 1,000 COVID-19 cases in October. At a watermelon farm in Florida’s Alachua County, 90 of the farm’s 100 workers tested positive for the disease over the course of a month. According to a recent study from UC Berkeley, farm workers in California have contracted coronavirus at nearly three times the rate of other workers. In the San Joaquin Valley of Central California, one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world and by far the most active in the US, one county reported almost 28,000 cases and 522 deaths, with rates growing astronomically between August and December. More than 1,180 agricultural workers in Santa Barbara County have tested positive, revealing only a fraction of the actual scale of the spread. Like in agriculture, meatpacking workers and others in food production have a significantly increased risk for contracting the virus. California’s Central Valley also set another US record with the largest outbreak from a single farm when 400 employees tested positive at a poultry farm in Merced County. In Los Angeles, the Farmer John meatpacking plant, the largest such facility in the state, racked up tens of thousands of dollars in wrist slap fines for unsafe conditions which resulted in more than 300 employees contracting COVID-19 during the month of November alone. All told, eight percent of all COVID-19 cases in the US so far can be linked to meatpacking plants. When there is an outbreak at a farm or packing house, these “essential” workers are unable to physically distance at work and also at home due to cramped living quarters. As these cases develop, it becomes a distinct possibility that half if not the majority of workers at a given facility will contract the virus.
‘Existential Peril’: Mass Transit Faces Huge Service Cuts Across U.S. – NY Times – In Boston, transit officials warned of ending weekend service on the commuter rail and shutting down the city’s ferries. In Washington, weekend and late-night metro service would be eliminated and 19 of the system’s 91 stations would close. In Atlanta, 70 of the city’s 110 bus routes have already been suspended, a move that could become permanent. And in New York City, home to the largest mass transportation system in North America, transit officials have unveiled a plan that could slash subway service by 40 percent and cut commuter rail service in half. Across the United States, public transportation systems are confronting an extraordinary financial crisis set off by the pandemic, which has starved transit agencies of huge amounts of revenue and threatens to cripple service for years. The profound cuts agencies are contemplating could hobble the recoveries of major cities from New York to Los Angeles and San Francisco, where reliable transit is a lifeblood of the local economies. Trains and buses carry the office workers, shoppers and tourists who will help revive stores, restaurants, cultural attractions, hotels and other key businesses that have been battered by the outbreak. The financial collapse of transportation agencies would especially hurt minority and low-income riders who tend to be among the biggest users of subways and buses. For months, transit officials around the country have pleaded for help from the federal government, but with no new lifeline forthcoming and many systems facing December deadlines to balance their budgets, agencies have started to outline doomsday service plans that would take effect next year. ImageIn Washington, weekend and late-night metro service would be eliminated and 19 of the system’s 91 stations would close without an infusion of federal aid, officials said. A glimmer of hope emerged in recent days, when a bipartisan group of lawmakers in Congress proposed $15 billion for public transit agencies as part of a $908 billion framework for a pandemic-relief package. But it has yet to be endorsed by Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican majority leader, who has proposed a smaller stimulus plan that contains no financing for public transit.
Kansas, Missouri need help with utility bills in pandemic | The Kansas City Star – Utilities such as Evergy did the right thing when they stopped disconnecting people from electrical service for overdue accounts at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. However, while that disconnection moratorium ended in July, the public health crisis did not. Now the spread of COVID-19 is exponential and unyielding throughout Kansas and Missouri, while families in each state struggle to pay their bills because of the corresponding economic crisis. As community transmission rages, monopoly utilities must again do the right thing by reinstating a moratorium on utility disconnections and reconnecting utilities to ensure no family goes without heat, electricity or water until the pandemic is under control. If utility CEOs do not act soon, Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly and Missouri Gov. Mike Parson should. This is not just the right thing to do for families and businesses that are suffering through no fault of their own; research published by Duke University found that utility shutoff moratoriums contributed to a reduction in the spread of the virus. This is commonsense policy that will save lives. We know customers are hurting because monopoly utilities have filed reports with state regulators in Kansas and Missouri detailing the pain. More than 68,000 Evergy customers are on special payment plans to keep the lights on, while another 31,537 residential customers have had their power involuntarily disconnected. Payment plans are helpful and have kept utilities on for many, but these measures are inadequate when confronting the enormity of the public health and economic crisis today.
LG&E requests rate hike to fund upgrades, critics say its the wrong time – Louisville Gas & Electric says a rate increase will help them continue work that reduces power outage times, among other things, but consumer advocates are questioning the need and the timing. In a filing with Kentucky’s Public Service Commission, which can either approve or deny the request, the LG&E has asked for an electricity rate increase of 11.81%, or $11.74 on the average monthly electric bill, and a gas rate increase of 9.37%, or $6.17 on the average monthly gas bill. Advertisement The utility hopes to raise $161.1 million for a variety of investments, including the kind of infrastructure upgrades that have already reduced power outage times by 20% over the past decade, said Natasha Collins, an LG&E spokesperson. “We’ve done things like put in new wires, replace old wooden poles with steel poles, put in new circuit breakers, new equipment in substations and also invest in automated equipment that helps us to pinpoint the location of an outage, isolate that outage and restore service to the rest of the customers,” she said. The money would also pay for new electric car charging stations, she said. If approved, the rate increase could take effect in mid-2021. Consumer advocates worry the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will still be hurting many LG&E customers. “It hits particularly low and fixed income seniors harder than it hits some who have more ability to absorb the changes,” said Tom Fitzgerald, director of the Kentucky Resources Council. “We literally have folks who are already deciding ‘Do I buy my medicine or do I pay my electric bills?'”
General manager: TVA credit will help Natchez Trace EPA stave off rate hikes “for as long as possible” | Chickasaw Journal — Natchez Trace EPA will use a recent credit from the Tennessee Valley Authority to stave off any future rate increases to the co-op’s 15,000-plus members for as long as possible, Natchez Trace EPA General Manager Shawn Edmondson said this week.The credit to Natchez Trace represents 2.5 percent of wholesale power costs — the cost of power that TVA sells to Natchez Trace — for 12 months beginning in October, 2020. The credit will also help the EPA offset any potential drop in power sales due to the Covid-19 pandemic, he said.”Our commercial sales are down about 10 percent, while our residential sales have held steady since everyone’s at the house.”The big drop in commercial sales is due to everything being shut down. April was one of the one of lowest months we ever had in terms of sales. Overall, I’ve never seen this big a drop in sales, and I’ve been here 22 years,” Edmondson said.He said receipt of the credit should mean customers will not see a rate hike for “probably a couple normal years, but it might be less if thing stay slow,” he said.The EPA’s last rate hike was in 2019 for 1.5 percent.”Being in rural Mississippi and having stagnant growth is something we face every year, but it’s been compounded this year due to the shutdowns from the coronavirus,” the general manager said.Natchez Trace EPA is a member-owned electrical cooperative headquartered in Houston with district offices in Calhoun City and Eupora. It provides electrical service to about 15,823 members in parts of Calhoun, Chickasaw, Clay, Grenada, Pontotoc, Webster and Yalobusha counties.
Food prices, waste rise as food insecurity affects tens of millions in the US – The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruption to the food supply chain in the United States. Farmers who lost their markets have been forced to let millions of pounds of food waste even as tens of millions of workers suffer from food insecurity. In 2019, 35 million Americans suffered from food insecurity. Two-thirds were able to obtain enough food to eat through food assistance programs or altered eating patterns, while one-third suffered from a reduction in food intake. Researchers from Northwestern University believe that the number of food insecure households has more than doubled this year, affecting 23 percent of all American households. Households with children have seen this rise to 29.5 percent. This immense food crisis for the working class has been caused by sudden job loss, the refusal of the United States government to provide sufficient financial aid during the pandemic and a significant increase in food prices. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reported an average inflation of four percent for food items in 2020, double the 20-year average. Throughout the year, food prices were incredibly volatile. The consumer price index (CPI) for food rose by 2.7 percent in April alone – the largest one month jump since February 1974 – and the cost of groceries rose by 5.6 percent between June and July according to Food Business News. The cost of dairy products collapsed by 17.4 percent from January to May before soaring back up by 24.5 percent in June. The collapse in price was accompanied by millions of gallons of milk being dumped every day by dairy farmers who could not find markets, all while millions went hungry. The USDA expects 2020 to close with a price increase for fresh vegetables between two and three percent, while the price increase for meat products will average between seven and eight percent. The rise in food prices places an incredible burden upon working class families who were already suffering before the pandemic. The bottom 20 percent on American households spent an average of $4,400 on food in 2019, totaling 36 percent of their income. With the Congressional Research Service finding that more than half of households making less than $75,000 a year experienced some loss of income this year, these price increases in food will have a considerable impact. However, while prices for consumers rose considerably, the prices that farmers received did not.
New York City workers condemn mayor’s plan to reopen schools Monday – Anger is rising among educators and other workers in New York City over the decision of Democratic Mayor Bill de Blasio to reopen schools in the largest school district in the US on Monday. The schools were closed on November 19 because the citywide rolling seven-day average positivity rate among people tested for COVID-19 was above three percent, the cutoff initially agreed to by de Blasio and the United Federation of Teachers (UFT). Cases of those infected with the virus have increased nearly 70 percent in the last two weeks. On November 29, the mayor reneged on the agreement to adhere to the three percent threshold, announcing that primary schools would reopen on December 7. The UFT, without consulting its membership, has supported the mayor’s decision wholeheartedly. As a result, 195,000 students from pre-K to 5th grade are eligible to return to in-person class Monday.De Blasio made his decision after a ferocious pro-reopening media campaign spearheaded by the New York Times, various protests by upper-middle-class parents, and intense behind-the-scenes pressure from New York’s Governor Andrew Cuomo and other Democratic Party politicians, who are as beholden to Wall Street as Trump and the Republicans. Cuomo himself has relaxed requirements for schools to close across New York state in counties with high positivity rates. Millions of working class New Yorkers understand the danger of opening schools. Only 30 percent of eligible students have returned to in-person class since September, in what amounts to a de facto boycott of face-to-face learning in public schools. New York City teachers have circulated a petition calling for the closing of schools, which reads in part: We have been sold out by our Union president without a clear explanation or rationale that makes sense. We believe that closing schools is the only way to keep our teachers and their families safe during this time where people are continuing to gather for the holidays. We are asking that you please take our lives and health into consideration and reopen schools after the holidays when the rates have dropped, and it is safe to do so.
Reopening of New York City schools threatens massive spread of COVID-19 -The COVID-19 pandemic is raging out of control across the United States. Over the past week, 1,442,516 people have tested positive and 16,068 have died. The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients now stands at 102,148, pushing healthcare workers beyond their capacity as forecasts project the situation to become ever direr in the coming weeks and months.Amid this catastrophe, New York City public schools reopened Monday for pre-K to 5th grade, bringing together as many as 200,000 students and staff in confined, poorly ventilated classrooms across the city. Less than three weeks after New York City’s Democratic Mayor Bill de Blasio was compelled to close schools when the citywide test positivity rate surpassed three percent, he has unilaterally reopened them, despite the citywide test positivity rate now exceeding five percent and daily new cases having increased nearly 70 percent in the last two weeks. The United Federation of Teachers (UFT) has again played the pivotal role in reopening schools. After facilitating the agreement to reopen schools in September, the union bemoaned the fact that they were closed last month and then approvingly retweeted de Blasio’s declaration that they would reopen this week. UFT President Michael Mulgrew parrots the line advanced by the foremost advocate of reopening schools, the New York Times, which wrote Monday, “While the road ahead will be rocky, top public health officials in the city expressed confidence that public schools would remain islands of relative safety.”Nowhere do the Democrats, the UFT, the Times, the rest of the corporate media or any of the unprincipled public health officials they bring forward cite any evidence to substantiate their claim that schools are somehow safe havens where COVID-19 miraculously cannot spread. The reality is that schools have long been recognized by epidemiologists as major centers in viral transmission, and COVID-19 is no exception. The effects of this policy will be disastrous. Countless teachers, education workers, students and parents will needlessly become infected and die in the coming weeks, while the spread of the pandemic will deepen throughout the region and beyond. Further, the precedent set by the largest school district in the US is accelerating school reopening plans in other major Democratic Party-led cities, including Chicago, Los Angeles, Oakland and Washington D.C., among others.
Kass: Kids Are “Casualties Of War” In The Chicago Teachers Union’s Power-Play To Keep Schools Closed – Why don’t we make this a “teaching moment” for parents who want real choice?And for the great public schoolteachers who might be intimidated by those union leaders who are fighting to keep schools closed?Some of those teachers send their kids to private schools in Chicago where teachers are in the classroom. They would rather stay quiet. I don’t blame them.The science does not support closed schools. Dr. Anthony Fauci and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield say that kids should be in school with proper precautions.Most teachers want to teach in person. They’ve dedicated their lives to being educators. And they know, perhaps more than most of us, how closing schools hurts young people emotionally, socially and academically.And many parents also want their children in school, not falling behind, trying to learn on a laptop. Chicago’s mayor and other Democratic elected officials know this, but they’re intimidated by the power of the CTU leadership.Before I go any further, please remember I’m not anti-teacher. My wife is a teacher. One of our sons is a teacher.Don’t twist my words to suggest otherwise. Teachers perform the most important job in the country. Yet many good teachers are, as I said, intimidated by union bosses. And the political actors tremble because teachers union bosses are their political bosses now. I decided to reach out to a man who knows how this works and invited him to be a guest on “The Chicago Way” podcast: Paul Vallas, the former CEO of the Chicago Public Schools. He has been putting pressure on the union and the politicians to open up the schools. (transcript follows)
Ohio schools set new record for most coronavirus cases reported in a week – – As Ohio continues to ride its largest wave of the coronavirus pandemic, schools in the state reported their largest weekly increase in COVID-19 cases on Thursday. The Ohio Department of Health on Thursday reported 5,166 new cases of COVID-19 among K-12 students and staff members, eclipsing the previous weekly record of 4,717 set on Nov. 19. The total number of students and staff who have tested positive this school year is now 28,218. Before Thursday’s record increase, week-to-week increases of COVID-19 in school communities had been trending down, with increases of 4,709 and 3,750 in the past two weeks. As of last Thursday, 364 of Ohio’s 609 public school districts were in a hybrid or fully remote learning model or were closed all week, according to the Ohio Department of Education. 185 were fully remote, including the state’s largest school district, Columbus City Schools, and the large urban districts of Cleveland, Cincinnati, Toledo and Akron. Case data is reported to ODH on Sundays to be published on Thursdays, so cases published Thursday reflect last week. (See more information on the data in the dropdown below). Schools report cases among students and staff to ODH on Tuesdays, and ODH releases numbers on Thursdays at 2 p.m. However, the numbers a school reports to ODH may not be as recent as Tuesday. “A report of COVID-19 should not be interpreted as an indicator that a school district or school isn’t following proper procedures – school cases can be a reflection of the overall situation in the broader community,” the state’s dashboard of cases notes. 17,143 (61%) of Ohio’s school cases are students and 11,075 (39%) are staff members, which include teachers, administrators, coaches and support staff. 1,387 Ohio schools have reported at least one coronavirus case this school year, an increase of 31 since last week. That is half of the 2,773 schools, districts, private schools, vocational schools, preschools and other non-college institutions the state tracks. Thirty-six schools have reported at least 100 cases and 127 schools have reported at least 50. Cincinnati Public Schools, a district of more than 36,000 students, leads the state with 486 cases. Five Columbus area school districts are in the top 10, including three in the top five.
Alabama loses two more educators to COVID-19 — Two more beloved educators in the Montgomery, Alabama school district have died of COVID-19. Morris Lewis Pitts, a devoted grandfather and custodian at Jefferson Davis High School, passed away November 25. Dr. Ennis McCorvey, an assistant principal of Lee High School who inspired students and teachers alike, succumbed to the virus November 29, adding to the state’s grim death toll of at least 3,638 people. On November 21, two Hoover City educator deaths were reported. “Every day, Mr. Pitts was at our school to pick up his granddaughter,” a Montgomery teacher recalled to the World Socialist Web Site. “He’d work a full day at the high school, then come and get his granddaughter. Everybody knew him as the man who comes and waits for his baby. He came to parent-teacher conferences or called and asked about her grades. He was the involved parent we all wish for, and he was not a parent but a grandparent. He’d say, ‘She’s a wonderful child, but I’ve still got to be involved.’ He was an amazing person. He would lend a hand to help anybody; he’d give the shirt off his back.” Dr. Ennis McCorvey Dr. McCorvey’s death has likewise traumatized his coworkers and friends. “People were crying, crying in front of their students,” said the teacher. “Students were crying. Graduates of the school said, ‘He helped me, he told me I was going to make it.’ He touched everybody, every school, people in the community, fraternity members, church members. Teachers are still having a hard time; they can’t believe he’s gone. “He helped me. I had a student who didn’t want to do any work. That young man just refused to take a test. Principal McCorvey said to me, ‘Give him another chance. I don’t care if it’s four or five chances, you cannot give him the option to fail!’ Still this young man said he wouldn’t take the test. He was just rebelling. McCorvey pulled his chair up and said, ‘Young man, you can do this, show them how smart you are. Just do this.’ And he did it. He helped the worst-behaved kids, he pushed them and showed them how great they are.” The day following Dr. McCorvey’s death, the district belatedly announced that it would end face-to-face instruction districtwide beginning December 7 through January 11. Even this half-measure quickly brought the ire of Republican Governor Kay Ivey. She has repeatedly vowed not to shut businesses, endorsing the Business Council of Alabama’s (BCA) “Keep Alabama Open” campaign. The BCA is made up of the top financial interests in the state, including the Alabama Automotive Manufacturers Association, US Steel, Honda, JP Morgan Chase, and other banks and large businesses.
Teacher walkout forces closure of Toronto-area school hit by COVID-19 outbreak – An elementary school in a heavily working-class Toronto neighbourhood was forced to close last Thursday following a teacher walkout triggered by a massive COVID-19 outbreak. Mass testing at Thorncliffe Park Public School, undertaken to locate asymptomatic carriers of the virus, had found 26 cases among staff and students. Public health authorities initially refused to close the school, following directives from Ontario’s hard-right Conservative government, which is determined to keep schools open so parents can go to work and generate profits for big business. After 19 positive tests were confirmed, 348 students and 27 of the school’s 30 teachers were ordered to isolate at home. Even so, Toronto Public Health officials insisted that the cases were acquired outside the walls of the school. When the confirmed case count rose to 26 on Thursday, the three remaining teachers walked off the job, effectively forcing Toronto Public Health to order the school closed. The pilot program of voluntary testing for those who are not showing symptoms was recently rolled out at schools in hard-hit neighbourhoods across the province. It has so far included hotspots in Ottawa, Toronto and the badly affected Peel Region in Toronto’s western suburbs.Provincial Education Minister Stephen Lecce, who has led the reckless school reopening drive of the Doug Ford-led provincial government, defended the refusal to close Thorncliffe Park Public School. “Ninety-nine percent of Ontario students are COVID-free,” he cynically declared. Lecce also pointed to the high community positive test rate of 16 percent, compared to the 4 percent found at the school, to claim that the Thorncliffe Park outbreak was not due to in-school transmission. Journalists felt compelled to point out the obvious, that the high positive test rate in the community was a result of greater testing among symptomatic individuals and those with whom they have been in close contact. Furthermore, high transmission in the broader community only underscores the criminality of keeping schools open while cases of the virus skyrocket all around.
Over 2,200 students at Columbia University threaten tuition strike amid economic crisis – Students at Columbia University in New York City have launched plans for a tuition strike demanding decreased tuition and increased financial aid in 2021. The petition announcing the strike has grown to over 2,200 student pledges. Columbia University is one of the most expensive universities in the country, costing over $60,000 a year, has one of the largest university endowments in the country, currently at $11.26 billion, and is one of the largest private landowners in New York City. Columbia recently reported an increase of $310 million to their endowment from returns in the university’s stock portfolio this year.Meanwhile, students face a dire economic situation as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is beginning to rage uncontrolled once again in New York City, under Democratic Party leadership. The current threat of tuition strike follows a strike in April by Columbia University graduate workersdemanding the university sufficiently address the impact of the pandemic on their lives, scholarship and research.The strike campaign, which extends to the Columbia-affiliated schools of Barnard College and Teachers College, was initiated by the Columbia University-Barnard College chapter of the Young Democratic Socialists of America (YDSA).The primary demands of the tuition strike call for a reduction of the total cost of attendance by at least 10 percent and an increase of financial aid by at least 10 percent. Other listed demands include ending university expansion in West Harlem, defunding Columbia’s Public Safety security force, divesting from fossil fuels and from companies tied to human rights violations, protections for international students, and granting union recognition for student workers to bargain for improved compensation and benefits.
Opposition erupts at San Diego State University following decision to cancel spring break -At a meeting of the San Diego State University (SDSU) Senate on December 1, the university president pushed for an impromptu vote on a decision to cancel the one-week spring break holiday for students in April. Since the vote a little over a week ago, university administrators have faced a backlash from students. An online petition to reverse the decision has gathered more than 14,000 signatures, almost half of the school’s 30,000 student population, in only a few days. A significant number of faculty members have also voiced their opposition to the move, which will increase workloads for both students and teachers. The university has replaced the usual week-long spring break with a handful of “rest and recovery” days, which will amount to a few three-day weekends spaced throughout the semester. The decision has been made on public health grounds, with the stated aim of discouraging student gatherings and travel that might occur during a five-day recess. In a letter to SDSU officials, San Diego Public Health Officer Dr. Wilma Wooten called for “avoiding the 9-day class gap” as a “proactive approach to protect our communities from preventable outbreaks.” “The extended, traditional break encourages travel for students,” Wooten sated, “increasing their risk of exposure when flying or driving across states, putting their families and the SDSU community upon arrival, at higher risk of contracting the virus.” There is no question that discouraging travel and gatherings is absolutely necessary to prevent the spread of the virus. The pandemic is in an extremely dangerous phase, with new cases and deaths at record levels. However, the university’s decision is riven with hypocrisy. The university administration, acting in conjunction with the Democratic Party which controls the state government, has created the conditions for the spread of the virus while providing students with no resources to cope with the stress of school and work amidst a public health emergency. Anger among SDSU students has been building since the spring of this year, as the pandemic was first emerging. The university gave students mere days to move out of campus housing and levied heavy fines against them for extension requests. Then, in the fall, SDSU encouraged thousands of students to move into the dorms, offering single and combined dorms with up to four students in one small room. The reckless policy led to more than 700 COVID-19 cases among students within the first month of reopening. By November, the total number of cases among students since the start of fall instruction reached more than 1,700. As students began testing positive in large numbers, the university put hundreds of students into “isolation dorms” without more than 10 minutes to pack-up after staff in hazmat suits arrived at their doors.
Plans by University of Colorado at Boulder to cut 50 tenured jobs evoke opposition – The University of Colorado at Boulder’s College of Arts and Sciences dean, James White, ostensibly in reaction to the $69 million revenue reduction last spring, has floated a plan to eliminate 50 tenured positions and replace them with 25 adjuncts. The action immediately faced a backlash from students, faculty and staff on the campus. One day later, in an effort to head off an explosion, the dean claimed that the numbers were only hypothetical.In an interview Thursday, White stated, “Cutting is hard but growing back intelligently can be even harder.” Echoing the words of former Chicago Democratic Mayor Rahm Emanuel who infamously said, “Never let a good crisis go to waste,” White stated menacingly, “Never waste a good pandemic.” In other words, cuts to tenured staff were long planned by the administration, which was waiting for the right moment to implement them. The proposed cuts were in line with the trend throughout much of academia where relatively secure tenure and tenure-track jobs are being replaced by essentially low-pay contractor jobs, entailing increased workloads.The dean made clear that the proposed destruction of tenured jobs and their replacement by non-tenured and/or temporary positions would be permanent. White stated, “We must envision the College of Arts and Sciences of the future, five to 50 years from now,” adding that the university would be “better able to withstand the inevitable economic downturns and better able to invest in great new ideas.”He stated bluntly, “The fact that our budget is mostly devoted to salaries means that when we must cut our spending, reducing salary costs is the only large lever we have to pull.” There is no talk of cutting salaries of top administrators, who eat up a disproportionate share of the budget. According to publicly available information, as of FY 2019, White made $303,400, which has risen by around $8,000 since then. In FY 2019 the school spent $7.24 million in a buy-out of UCB football coach Mike MacIntrye, with a base salary being $575,000 in FY 2019 excluding supplemental salary, bonuses, and incentives. The add-ons, the Denver Business Journal noted, amount to “hundreds of thousands or even millions in additional pay.” For FY 2019 – 2020, the UCB athletics director, who leads the most profitable football program in the state, was paid $850,000 along the same lines.
R.I.P The University, b. 1088, d. 2020, of Covid – Lambert Strether – I just read a very saddening story in the Wall Street Journal: “Hit by Covid-19, Colleges Do the Unthinkable and Cut Tenure.” The headline is a bit deceptive; the real issue is not doing away with tenure, but changing the governance structure of the university to a corporate model, where the administrators run the institution, with the President as CEO, and faculty are at-will employees. The first university as we know it was founded in Bologna, Italy in 1088; theUniversita di Bologna still exists today, so institutionally it must have something going for it; 2020 – 1088 = 932 years, a little shy of the Roman Empire’s lifespan. But all that is solid melts into air. Freedom to tell the truth was built on the foundation of academic freedom, meaning in practice that the faculty governed itself – including hiring and firing and the curriculum – while the administration took care of the buildings and grounds, One way of looking at academic freedom is that you get to be a whistleblower all the time, with little consequence outside academic politics[1]. The life of the whistle in the corporate world, where all are slaves to profit, is very different. Again, an ideal, I know. Which brings me to the Wall Street Journal article. Faced with a financial shortfall caused by Covid, here is what Kenneth Macur, President of Medaille College, did:Dr. Macur saw what he considered an opportunity: With the approval of the board of trustees, he suspended the faculty handbook by invoking an “act of god” clause embedded in it. He laid off several professors, cut the homeland security and health information management programs, rescinded the lifelong job security of tenure and rewrote the faculty handbook, rules that had governed the school for decades. In other words, the President of a university became the CEO of an institution we don’t yet have a name for. (A diploma mill?) Putting aside for now castigating the trusting fool who put let that “Act of God” clause slip by, Macur has turned the faculty into employees at will. He’s also taken over control of the curriculum by eliminating entire schools. Macur, in short, eliminated any institutional basis for academic freedom. You will note also that Macur did not cut his own salary, or slash the administration[2].The Journal goes on: Dr. Macur and presidents of struggling colleges around the country are reacting to the pandemic by unilaterally cutting programs, firing professors and gutting tenure, all once-unthinkable changes. Schools employed about 150,000 fewer workers in September than they did a year earlier, before the pandemic, according to the Labor Department. That’s a decline of nearly 10%. Along the way, they are changing the centuries-old higher education power structure.The changes upset the “shared governance” model for running universities that has roots in Medieval Europe. It holds that a board of trustees has final say on how a school is run but largely delegates academic issues to administrators and faculty who share power.This setup, and the job protection of tenure, promote a need for consensus and deliberation that is one reason why universities often endure for centuries
Public Health Workers In Kansas Walk Away Over Pressure From Pandemic Politics – In July, Nick Baldetti resigned as director of the Reno County Health Department in Kansas. But it wasn’t the 80-hour workweeks that drove him to quit, it was the hostile political environment and threats to Baldetti’s family. “I had the local police watching my house because my family was home and I was not,” said Baldetti, who also served as the department’s health officer. “There was a period of time that I had escorts to and from work.” Baldetti spent years preparing to deal with a public health crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic. He never imagined that when the moment arrived, he would encounter such antagonism for simply doing his job. “By the end of the day, you just felt like you were on an island by yourself,” he said. “Whatever decision I made, 50% of people were going to be upset because it was too ‘restrictive’ and the other 50% were going to be upset because it wasn’t restrictive enough.” Baldetti’s story isn’t unique. The pressure of dealing with the pandemic and the politics surrounding it has triggered an exodus of public health workers in Kansas. In the nine months since the state’s first documented coronavirus infection, 27 county health officials have left their posts. Some retired, but others resigned or were fired. The same pressures are thinning the ranks of local public health officials across the country. Many are leaving because they’ve been physically threatened or “politically scapegoated” for doing their jobs, Lori Freeman, chief executive of the National Association of County and City Health Officials, told NPR. Gianfranco Pezzino recently announced that after 14 years as the health officer of the Shawnee County Health Department, he would step down at the end of the year. A doctor and public health researcher, Pezzino said months of battling county commissioners over how to contain the coronavirus had worn him out. “I’m tired emotionally, I’m tired physically,” Pezzino said. “I don’t think I have the energy … to do another year like this.” The amount of misinformation spread on social media – much of it emanating from the White House – politicized the nation’s response to the pandemic, Pezzino said. “If there had been a unified message coming down from the federal government to the state and local levels,” he said, “it would have been much easier for everybody.”
Chinese Consumer Prices Show First Annual Decline Since 2009 – WSJ – China’s consumer prices dropped for the first time in over a decade in November, though economists say the decrease doesn’t signal faltering demand in the world’s second-largest economy. The fall was driven by volatile food prices, including the continued retreat of pork prices as supply recovers from the ravages of African swine fever. Other economic indicators have shown a continued recovery from Covid-19 shocks. China’s consumer-price index in November was down 0.5% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday, after a 0.5% rise in October. It was the first negative reading since October 2009. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast November’s CPI would come in flat. The statistics bureau said food prices, down 2.0% from a year earlier, weighed heavily on November’s headline CPI. In October, food prices were up 2.2% from a year earlier. Among foods, pork – the main source of protein in the Chinese diet – extended its decline, down 12.5% in November after October’s 2.8% drop. Outbreaks of African swine fever, a highly contagious virus fatal to pigs but not harmful to humans, reduced the country’s hog population by about half in 2019, causing pork prices to more than double. This year pork prices have been volatile, but they are trending lower as increased imports – not just of pork but of meats such as beef and lamb as well – make up for the domestic shortfall. “November’s CPI decline was driven by pork prices and should be short-lived, which won’t be counted as deflation,” said Xing Zhaopeng, an economist at ANZ.
Stage lights go off after Seoul orders shutdown – As the Seoul capital has gone into a partial lockdown and Korea has decided to raise distancing regulations for the metropolitan area, the lights have gone out at performing art stages and cinemas across the city. With the South Korean government announcing the Level 2.5 distancing, the second highest notch in the country’s five-tier COVID-19 scheme, performing arts venues will have to leave the two thirds of audience seats empty from Tuesday. The tight limitations on the audience capacity of performing arts shows will likely lead to cancellation or postponement of many shows, as it would be difficult to create profit under such measures. The Seoul government on Friday announced the shutdown of stores, theaters and other facilities after 9 p.m. from Saturday, while reducing public transportation service by 30 percent. The new measure also called for a complete closure of state-funded theaters across Seoul, regardless of the hours. Following the announcement, the Seoul Metropolitan Musical Theater said it will halt its run of “Little Women” at the Sejong Center in central Seoul from Saturday to Dec. 18. A reopening of the show has not been set yet.
World Food Program Director: 270 Million People Now “Marching Toward Starvation” In Wake of COVID-19 – According to the head of the World Food Program (WFP), the amount of people around the world now on the brink of starvation has doubled due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting economic effects of government reactions to the virus.Director of the WFP, David Beasley, who previously warned that the “cure” for the COVID-19 pandemic should not be worse than the disease, told the United Nations General Assembly on Friday that 270 million people are now “marching towards starvation” in wake of the economic effects of the pandemic.”As I had warned the United Nations Security council back in April, that if we’re not careful the cure could be worse than the disease because of the economic ripple effect – if we don’t handle economic disruptions, supply chain disruptions, ect. … ” Beasley told the council.”As we predicted back in April, the number of people that were going to be marching toward the brink of starvation had already risen from 80 million to 135 million the last four years, primarily because of man made conflict,” the director went on, adding:”But because of COVID it’s now spiking from 135 million people – not going to bed hungry now, [but] literally marching towards starvation – to 270 million people.”Beasley expressed a bleak outlook for 2021 as he believes next year is going to be “catastrophic based on what we’re seeing at this stage of the game.”He said that “because we’ve spent $19 trillion, that money may not, and will not most likely be available for 2021” as economic contractions out pace the need to supply a lifeline to those starving.In April, Beasley pointed to an already deepening starvation crisis happening in conflict torn nations such as Yemen. He would warn that the world is “facing a perfect storm” with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and that if “funding shortfalls and disruptions to trade” could not be avoided “we could be facing multiple famines of biblical proportions within a short few months.”The WFP director’s shocking warning was sounded just prior to alarm bells raised by the WHO’s special envoy on COVID-19, Dr. David Nabarro, who cautioned that national lockdowns should be avoided as a primary response to COVID-19 as they have the consequence of “making poor people an awful lot poorer.””Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never, ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer,” Nabarro said in October.
Covid is accelerating a quiet technology revolution in Africa – It is no secret, by now, that Covid-19 has accelerated digitalisation across many industries. But while much attention has been given to the boost the pandemic has given to ecommerce in developed markets, hardly any has been given to the even more profound impact coronavirus has had in frontier markets. In Africa, that most frontier of continents in terms of economic power, the effect has been quietly revolutionary. Below the Mediterranean, Africa’s 1.3bn people are transacting digitally at an unprecedented rate, forever reshaping the continent’s technology sector. This happened to the point where the world’s best developed consumer mobile market is now Kenya. Across the continent, these shifts are being driven by growth companies, while governments simply watch on. And it is happening at an amazing pace. Because of the fact that 80 per cent of African spend is still on essential goods and services, the sectors seeing the most tech “disruption” are those serving consumers’ basic requirements for food, energy, and health. In Nigeria, Africa’s biggest economy, logistics tech provider Kobo, which provides a tech platform to match shippers and truck operators to confirm, finance and complete long haul trips, has doubled the value of trips on its platform to close to $200m annually since lockdown. In Kenya, a smaller tech vendor called Copia is delivering essential products to rural households for as low as $1 per delivery using its sourcing and delivery system together with rural distribution points, providing a service that larger delivery firms simply cannot fulfil at that price. Phone financing operator M-KOPA, meanwhile, has increased revenue 50 per cent through Covid to an annualised $100m run-rate, by financing business phones for vendors now having to transact everything via mobile. Also in Kenya, Africa’s largest agricultural marketplace Twiga Foods aggregates overnight demand via mobile from thousands of roadside stallholders who line east Africa’s main roads, and delivers them higher quality produce each day directly, while taking advantage of lockdowns to expand to serve consumers directly. From its base in Ghana and now operating its own pharmacies across Africa, mPharma is solving the endemic problem of counterfeit and overpriced medication by sourcing and distributing reliable medicine through its own digital supply chain, allowing cost-effective treatment for chronic diseases for the first time in the continent’s history. A fast-growing group of companies including M-KOPA, Kobo, Green Light Planet, d light and Twiga are already generating $100m+ of volume, often after only a few years of operation. Finally, in mobile payments, companies from South Africa’s DPO to Lagos-based Paystack have been acquired for $200-300m each in cash in recent months, off the back of sharp increases in volume and revenue in a continental market that remains wide open for technology penetration.
Canadian authorities covering up workplace COVID-19 outbreaks to justify keeping economy and schools open -Canada’s Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland claimed in her fiscal update speech last week that authorities have learned how to “keep most of our economy … operating safely, even while the virus is still circulating in our communities.” This is a lie. COVID-19 is running rampant in workplaces and schools. The ruling elite and their political hirelings are concealing this fact because they are adamant that nothing be allowed to get in the way of raking in profits amid a raging pandemic. The reckless back-to-work campaign spearheaded by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government and provincial governments of all political stripes, and supported by the corporatist trade unions, has led to a surge in workplace COVID-19 infections and deaths, especially among low income, highly-exploited industrial and logistics workers. Those working in manual labour jobs without the option of working from home are catching COVID-19 while at work at alarming rates. In Quebec, workplaces now account for 40 percent of all infections, and these figures, which come from the government’s Institut national de sante publique, do not include infections at schools, hospitals and long-term care facilities. In mid-October, the provincial government agency in charge of occupational health and safety ordered a COVID-19 “inspection blitz,” but the public health institute’s data show that this has utterly failed to arrest the growth in workplace infections. For 11 consecutive weeks, ending only last week when there was a small decline, the number of workplace outbreaks rose to a new high. Ontario’s Peel Region, which neighbours Metro Toronto and includes the largely working-class cities of Mississauga, Brampton and Caledon, is one of Canada’s largest warehouse and distribution hubs. Businesses in the region employ many immigrants and members of multigenerational households. Peel Region has the highest cumulative rate of COVID-19 cases in Ontario, at a staggering 1,200 cases per 100,000 people. As of December 1, there had been 116 total workplace outbreaks, more than the number that have occurred in long-term care homes and schools combined. Peel Region’s Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Lawrence Loh, acknowledged that the surge in workplace infections is linked to the fact that many workers are so poorly paid they have no choice but to go to work, even when they display COVID-19 symptoms. “In protecting workers, we know that the absence of worker protections and paid sick leave does result in outbreaks because, people will show up because they’re choosing between their livelihood and their lives,” he remarked.
Canada Warns Conspiracy Theorists Could Burn 5G Towers, Claiming Link To Virus – A conspiracy theory linking 5G to the coronavirus has spread like wildfire this year. In April, numerous 5G towers were set on fire by folks in Britain who believed that radiation from the towers was contributing to the spread of COVID-19. Now Canada’s intelligence service has warned in a new confidential report, seen by Global News, that violent extremists could be ready to attack 5G wireless communication towers. “As companies begin 5G infrastructure construction in earnest, extremists from across the IMV extremist landscape could engage in acts of arson and vandalism against that infrastructure,” Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) wrote in the report. The confidential report comes amid a wave of COVID-19 disinformation swirling around internet forums that suggest 5G technology could spread the virus. “Given the extraordinary effect the COVID-19 pandemic has created on the lives of individuals across the world, CSIS is mindful that certain threat actors, across multiple threat landscapes, may seek to take advantage to advance their own interests,” CSIS spokesperson John Townsend said.Global News lists some of the most most popular COVID-19/5G conspiracy theories: Perhaps the most elaborate asserts that 5G was designed by governments to depopulate the world, and is part of a broader conspiracy theory called Agenda 21 that imagines the United Nations is trying to establish a new world order.None have any scientific validity, but white supremacists, neo-Nazis and anarchists have all adopted COVID-19 conspiracy theories to varying degrees, while the anti-vaxxer movement has promoted the notion that 5G is responsible for spreading COVID-19.CSIS said physical opposition to 5G wireless communication towers is significantly less when compared to other countries in Europe. However, it said “Canadian-based online communities” were pumping 5G conspiracy and far-right extremist groups were attempting to “capitalize on ‘5G hysteria.'” CSIS noted there had been a handful of incidents in the country of cellphone towers being damaged. The most significant attack was in Laval, Quebec, in April, where one tower was torched and sustained one million dollars in damage. In early May, at least six towers were torched in Montreal.
European Central Bank set to provide further market boost – The European Central Bank is expected to announce a further boost for financial markets by adding an additional euro 500 billion to the euro 1.35 trillion financial asset purchasing program it initiated in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, when its governing council meets on Thursday. On the same day, European leaders will start a series of virtual meetings to try to gain agreement on a euro 750 billion European Union fund aimed at providing assistance to governments that have been hardest hit by the pandemic. The fund was approved in principle earlier this year, but its operation has been held up because of disputes with the increasingly authoritarian governments of Poland and Hungary over its disbursement. The EU majority has said the provision of funds must be tied to respect for the rule of law. One of the aims of the increased ECB financial asset purchases is to raise the price of government bonds, thereby lowering the interest rates that governments have to pay to finance their borrowing programs, as well as providing a further boost to financial and equity markets. The crucial importance of the ECB program was highlighted back in March when it was developing its response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Incoming ECB president Christine Lagarde remarked at a press conference that it was not the job of the central bank to close the gap between the yield on the bonds of the stronger and weaker members of the eurozone. Her remarks prompted a major sell-off of Italian government bonds and a 17 percent fall in the country’s stock market. Lagarde gave a television interview in which she pulled back from her previous remarks. At the same time, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal earlier this month, the ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane “made dozens of private calls to banks and private investors,” to provide reassurances that the ECB was ready to buy Italian bonds if necessary. The calls, which involved major hedge funds and banks, such as BlackRock, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, were a significant departure from what is considered the normal practice of only delivering information to market participants at the same time. Whatever the content of the discussions, they were followed by a major initiative six days later when the ECB unveiled a euro 750 billion asset purchasing program which it upscaled to euro 1.35 trillion in June.
Poland & Hungary Accept German Proposal On $2.2 Trillion EU Stimulus – Germany has mediated a way through the blocked 1.8 trillion euros ($2.18 trillion) EU budget and coronavirus relief package proposal that Poland and Hungary were jointly blocking due to clauses linking the funds with rule of law and conditioned but vaguely defined democratic standards. While some member states remain skeptical, the two countries are said to have preliminarily accepted it. Thursday’s European Council summit is set to take up the matter. One official with knowledge of the negotiations told Reuters that “We are preliminarily in agreement but there is some pressure…the aim is to have this done before the EU summit (on Thursday).” And Polish Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Gowin confirmed an agreement had been reached with Germany – enough to drop the veto threat, saying, “For now we have agreement between Warsaw, Budapest and Berlin.” He further told reporters in Warsaw on Wednesday, “I believe this agreement will also include the 24 remaining European capitals.” Gowin further said in reference to Poland’s ruling United Right coalition: “I cast aside the choice, veto or death…The alternative for the United Right government would be early elections which would not serve Poland well during a pandemic.” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban also indicated there was a “good chance” a deal will be firmed up by end of this week. While precise details as to where the compromise came to facilitate the breakthrough remain unknown, Warsaw is hinting it’s willing to allow conditionality language that is precise enough to not be used as political weapon for Brussels to impose its will from afar. According to Reuters: Poland’s government spokesman Piotr Muller said on Wednesday that Warsaw wanted any mention of the mechanism in the EU budget deal to be “clear”. He did not specify the demands further. “I don’t want to divulge our negotiation strategy, but the mechanism on conditionality has to be included in such a way that is clear,” Muller told Polish state television TVP. “If it’s not clear, we won’t have a compromise.”
UK government forces schools to stay open as infections continue to surge The Conservative government ended its one-month national lockdown last week with the sole aim of boosting the economy before Christmas, placing countless lives in danger. Unlike the first lockdown earlier in the year, the most recent excluded schools, with predictably disastrous consequences for the spread of COVID-19. Now the government is using special powers contained in the Coronavirus Act 2020 to prevent schools from taking action to mitigate the dangers. Since the start of the September term, the infection rate among secondary school pupils, aged 11-16, has soared 50-fold. One in 10 pupils of all ages are off school – and one in five secondary school pupils – either because they themselves are a confirmed or suspected case of COVID-19 or because they have been a potential contact of a positive case. The government’s propaganda line, supported by the Labour Party, that schools are “COVID secure”, is in tatters. In a damning report, Independent Sage, a group of scientists who have criticised aspects of the government’s COVID-19 response, have called for “urgent action” on outbreaks in schools. The group’s chair, former government chief scientific adviser Professor Sir David King, warned that the risk facing families was heightened by the prospect of multiple generations of families coming together over five days this Christmas under the government’s relaxed restrictions. The report cited new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) which compared the infection rates among 11 to 16-year-olds on September 1, just before schools reopened, versus November 21. It showed a staggering increase from 0.04 percent at the start of the school year to 2.16 percent – 54 times higher over a 12-week period. The rate of positivity actually peaked at 2.28 percent on November 16 and 17. There are also currently 1,225 people in the 6-17 age bracket in hospital due to COVID-19.
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