Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666
News posted last week about economic effects related to the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some articles are summarized here. We cover the latest economic data, especially GDP, the jobs report, banking oversight, mortgage delinquencies, local schools & universities, plus coronavirus relief (stimulus) or lack thereof. More news this week about new restrictions and curfews. The bulk of the news is from the U.S., with a few articles from overseas at the end. (Picture below is morning rush hour in downtown Chicago, 20 March 2020.) News items about epidemiology and other medical news for the virus are reported in a companion article.
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We’re never going back to the old economy, Fed Chairman says – – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell doubled down on his remarks that the economy as we know it is over during a virtual appearance Tuesday at the Bay Area Council Business Hall of Fame Awards Ceremony. “We’re not going back to the same economy, we’re going back to a different economy,” Powell said, echoing comments he made at the European Central Bank’s Forum on Central Banking last week. The pandemic has accelerated ongoing trends, including the increasing use of technology, automation and telework, Powell said last Thursday. And while these changes will be beneficial for some, they will hurt certain groups in the short-term. On Tuesday, Powell also reiterated that people in lower-income jobs hadn’t recovered as much as others and that workers in the services industry might need more help going forward. “The recovery is incomplete,” he said, warning of near-term risks surrounding the resurgence of Covid-19 infections. “We have a long way to go.” The central banker has repeatedly said that more fiscal and monetary stimulus was likely needed to help with the recovery. The Fed slashed interest rates to near zero in March and launched a series of lending programs to support the recovery since the crisis started. Meanwhile, Powell said it wasn’t the right time to worry about the fiscal health of the United States, even as the government is spending trillions to help boost the economy. Rather, that issue should be addressed when unemployment is low again and tax revenues are rolling in. “That’s the time to really focus,” he said.
Here Comes More Fed Easing- JPMorgan Expects Fed To Extend QE Maturity In December Meeting — Over the weekend we showed in simple terms why the Fed will have to adjust – and expand – its QE: as the following BofA table makes abundantly clear, in a time when foreign demand for US Treasurys continues to decline (with China’s current account moving into a deficit, it will be far more focused on finding its own foreign investors rather than funding US deficits), the US is set to issue a net $2.4 trillion while the Fed will monetize less than $1 trillion of this, a stark reversal from 2020 when Jerome Powell is purchasing every dollar of debt sold by Mnuchin. So unless the Fed is prepared to allow Treasury yields to rise far higher in order to create the required excess demand for US paper to fund the massive 2021 deficit, it will be up to the Fed to aggressively increase its QE, although it may need another “crisis” as a catalyst to announce this expansion.And while a crisis is unlikely to take place before the next FOMC meeting on December 16, JPMorgan is already taking the next step of projecting that in an interim step extending the duration envelope of QE, and now sees the Fed to extend the maturity of its Treasury purchases. Here is what the bank’s chief economist Michael Feroli wrote this morning: “We now look for the Fed to extend the maturity of its $80 billion monthly purchases of US Treasuries at the December FOMC meeting.” The recent surge in virus case counts presents a considerable downside risk to the near-term economic outlook. While markets are more focused on the medium-term outlook, where vaccine hopes are rising, recent Fed rhetoric has indicated growing concern about the months between now and when a vaccine is widely available. Moreover, the apparent success of the monetary and fiscal response this spring is a reminder that minimizing short-run risks can lessen the degree of longer-run damage to the economy. At the most recent post-FOMC meeting press conference, Chair Powell indicated that the Committee thought the degree of accommodation they were providing was appropriate. However, the accelerating spread of the virus may be changing that assessment, and last Thursday Powell indicated that this spread implies that Congress and the Fed will likely need “to do more.” While that cover the bulk of Feroli’s revised forecast, he padded it with the following: There are a number of ways the Fed can try to do more, but we believe the approach which is most likely to gain consensus on the Committee is the one offered by Boston Fed President Rosengren: leave the notional monthly purchase pace unchanged but lengthy (sic) the weighted average maturity of their Treasury purchases. The rationale for such a move is simply to put more downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and thereby encourage more interest-sensitive spending.In other words, take the already biggest asset bubble in the world and make it bigger:
Congresswoman Katie Porter Tells the Fed that It’s Got a “Big Problem” — Pam Martens – Last Thursday, during the House Financial Services Committee hearing with federal regulators of banks, Congresswoman Katie Porter of California told the Vice Chairman for Supervision of the Federal Reserve, Randal Quarles, that the Fed has a “big problem.” Porter has a Harvard Law degree and was previously a law professor at the University of California Irvine School of Law. If Porter believes the Fed has a legal problem, it is highly likely it does.Here’s how the exchange between Porter and Quarles went:
- Porter: “The Fed is largely responsible for dispensing the $500 billion Congress provided as a bailout for corporate America – the biggest bailout in our country’s history, potentially. Using taxpayer dollars to buy bank debt was never part of that plan. In fact, the Federal Reserve stated explicitly in this document [holds up document] that it would not be purchasing bank debt. What happened?”
- Quarles: “We haven’t bought bank debt in those facilities.”
- Porter: “What’s an Exchange Traded Fund, Mr. Quarles?”
- Quarles: “As I was getting ready to say. We have purchased Exchange Traded Funds at the very beginning of the process in order to jumpstart the reignition of the economy and we stopped purchasing Exchange Traded Funds several months ago.”
- Porter: “Exchange Traded Funds, for everyone who is watching, those are just baskets of stocks [or corporate bonds] issued by a variety of companies. And, is it not correct that the Fed bought $1.3 billion in ETFs.”
- Quarles: “That number sounds right.”
- Porter: “My question for you is how much of that was bank debt – in the Exchange Traded Funds.”
- Quarles: “I can get that information for you. I don’t have the numbers in front of me.”
- Porter: “Well, it was a lot … these are companies like JPMorgan Chase, their debt is in there, and it’s a big problem that you did this. A white paper published by the Yale School of Management showed that, in fact, 15 percent of all those ETFs purchased was for big banks … This is a headline from Bloomberg: ‘Despite Stated Exclusion, the Fed Is Buying Bank Debt.’ Would you like to revise your earlier statement … ?”
After some back and forth, Porter asks Quarles who is the world’s largest issuer of ETFs. Quarles hesitates and Porter says “BlackRock.” Stating that it “seems beyond belief to me,” Porter then asks Quarles if the Fed hired BlackRock to buy up BlackRock’s own ETF products. As the bell rings indicating that Porter’s allotment of time for questioning has run out, she holds up a news article from the Wall Street Journal with this bold headline from September 18: “Fed Hires BlackRock to Help Calm Markets. Its ETF Business Wins Big.”
Was reboot of this Fed crisis-relief program a bust? – One of the main spigots of cash the Federal Reserve opened to fight the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, has delivered only a relative trickle of financing. As of the end of October, the Fed had funneled about $3.7 billion in loans through TALF to bond investors at rock-bottom rates, a fraction of the $100 billion the central bank had committed. Narrowing spreads have made the program less lucrative than expected, limiting participation to a handful of investors. With TALF set to expire at year-end, it seems likely to be shelved, right? Hold on, say policy experts who argue the program has had some less noticeable – but real – stabilizing effects on secondary markets in general. With the sharp rise in new COVID-19 cases this fall, those observers and funds participating in TALF are urging policymakers to extend the program into 2021. “Because the market did find its footing before TALF became operational, the economics are borderline for the deals in TALF,” said Kristi Leo, president of Structured Finance Association, which represents a variety of participants in the bond markets. Yet “it really gave a backstop and some confidence to the market.” Investors participating in TALF use the program’s cheap financing to buy securities backed by commercial mortgages and loans to small businesses, students and a variety of others. The idea was to provide a backstop to the market so that money would continue flowing through these investment companies to lenders that provided badly needed credit as social-distancing measures went into effect and businesses shuttered. Scores of investment firms began building up special investment funds to jump into the program. Many of them had netted massive profits from the original TALF in the 2008 financial crisis by scraping up the difference in what the risky subprime mortgage bonds yielded and the rate the firms had to pay on the Fed loans. However, 79% of the program’s loans this time around have landed at just two investment firms: Belstar Management Company and MacKay Shields. The reason can be found in a key indicator in the securities market that started to wobble in early March as the pandemic unfolded. The credit spread on triple-A-rated commercial mortgage-backed securities, which is the difference in interest offered to investors to buy the bonds compared to what they would gain from ultrasafe Treasuries, began spiking around March 12, according to research from Neuberger Berman. Higher spreads are a sign of rising risk that bond investors want to be paid a premium to shoulder. The spread climbed from below a 50 basis-point difference in the middle of March to almost 350 basis points by the time the Fed announced there would be a new round of TALF on March 23 along with a menu of other stimulus measures. But before the Fed could publish the specifics of the program like which securities would qualify for purchase by participating investors, in April, spreads on highly-rated CMBS had settled back to about 200 basis points by that point and have deflated since.
Treasury wants CARES Act programs to expire. Fed says not so fast – Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called on the Federal Reserve Thursday to let several of its emergency lending programs expire at yearend, and return unused funds appropriated by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act to backstop the facilities. But in a statement, the Fed argued for letting the programs continue. “The Federal Reserve would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the coronavirus pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop for our still-strained and vulnerable economy,” the central bank said. In a letter to Powell, Mnuchin said returning the unused money backing credit programs established under the Fed’s 13(3) emergency authority “will allow Congress to re-appropriate $455 billion.” The Fed, along with Treasury, established nearly a dozen emegency lending programs after the onset of the coronavirus to grease the wheels of credit markets and ensure banks were still able to lend to their customers. The programs are largely set to expire at the end of next month, but some have called for the Fed and Treasury to extend them. If the Fed returns the CARES Act funds, it would shut down the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility, the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility, the Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility, the Municipal Liquidity Facility and the Main Street Lending Program on Dec. 31. Mnuchin said that was legislators’ intention. “I was personally involved in drafting the relevant part of the legislation and believe the congressional intent … was to have the authority to originate new loans or purchase new assets (either directly or indirectly) expire on December 31, 2020,” Mnuchin said. Mnuchin also asked that the Fed approve a 90-day extension of the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and the Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility, all of which were funded without CARES Act appropriations. The move comes after Powell made remarks earlier this week suggesting that he didn’t believe the Fed should shut down its emergency facilities just yet. “I don’t think the time is yet, or very soon,” he said about closing the 13(3) programs at an event hosted by the Bay Area Council. However, Mnuchin did say he would be open to restarting any of the facilities if the conditions were warranted. “In the unlikely even that it becomes necessary in the future to reestablish any of these facilities, the Federal Reserve can request approval from the Secretary of the Treasury,” he wrote. The back and forth between Fed and Treasury comes amid heightened attention to whom President-elect Joe Biden picks to be his Treasury secretary. On Thursday, Biden indicated he was close to announcing his decision. Fed Gov. Lael Brainard is rumored to be among the leading candidates.
Congress splits along party lines over move to end Fed facilities – Lawmakers split along party lines on U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s move to shutter a number of Federal Reserve emergency-lending facilities that relied on his agency’s backing. “Ending emergency programs specifically intended to support the economy through this crisis is irresponsible and misguided,” Democratic Representative Richard Neal of Massachusetts, chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, said in a statement. “The Covid recession is not over. Millions of workers remain without jobs, and the futures of businesses across the country continue to hang in the balance.” By contrast, Republican Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, a member of the congressional panel monitoring pandemic relief funds at the Treasury and Fed, said in a Bloomberg TV interview that the facilities have served their purpose to stabilize markets and are no longer needed. “These were always meant to be very temporary facilities,” he said Friday. “I’m not surprised that a central bank would like to keep more power and more tools, but that doesn’t make it right.” Mnuchin, in a letter to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell released by the Treasury on Thursday, ordered the sunsetting of five of the central bank’s facilities designed to buffer the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, while asking for four others to be extended for 90 days. The Fed then released a statement underlining its preference for the “full suite” of measures to be maintained into 2021. Democratic Representative James Clyburn of South Carolina, chairman of the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, said the facilities that will no longer be able to purchase new assets beyond December were “part of a comprehensive set of tools Congress gave the Federal Reserve to combat the pandemic-related economic crisis.” Clyburn asked Mnuchin to rescind his request, and suggested congressional Democrats may encourage President-elect Joe Biden’s Treasury chief to reestablish the programs next year. Toomey said that he doesn’t believe a Biden administration would have the legal power to extend the facilities on its own, but that Congress could re-authorize the lending programs if economic conditions worsened. The congressional watchdog monitoring the Fed and Treasury’s relief efforts divided last month over whether one of the programs Mnuchin has ordered to be ended, which supports the municipal-debt market, should continue. The panel’s two Democrats wanted the Municipal Liquidity Facility not only extended, but its terms adjusted to make it more favorable for bond issuers. State and local governments also lobbied to expand the program. But Republicans on the oversight commission said the program, which had made only two loans at that point, had served its purpose to restore liquidity to the municipal bond market.
Fed to return lending-backstop funds to Treasury as requested– The Federal Reserve said Friday it would comply with a Treasury Department request to return unused funds meant to backstop five emergency lending programs, moving to tamp down a public rift that arose a day earlier. “We will work out arrangements with you for returning the unused portions of the funds allocated to the [Coronavirus Aid Relief and Economc Security] Act facilities in connection with their year-end termination,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin posted on the central bank’s website. Mnuchin on Thursday sparked a conflict between his agency and the central bank when he said he wouldn’t agree to extend the facilities enabled by the Cares Act, passed by Congress in March. The law appropriated funds to act as loss-absorbing buffers that enabled the Fed to stabilize financial markets and make loans to companies and municipal debt issuers. Mnuchin says the programs are no longer needed, and the money should be returned to Congress and put to better use elsewhere. The Fed had responded on Thursday with its own statement, saying it “would prefer that the full suite of emergency facilities established during the coronavirus pandemic continue to serve their important role as a backstop for our still-strained and vulnerable economy.” The move drew swift criticism from Democrats. President-elect Joe Biden’s transition team spokeswoman, Kate Bedingfield, on Friday blasted Mnuchin’s move as “deeply irresponsible.” On Friday, Powell conceded the Treasury’s authority in the matter, saying in the letter that the CARES Act “assigns the Treasury secretary sole authority to make certain investments in Federal Reserve emergency lending facilities, subject to limits specified in the statute.” Some officials, including a Democrat sitting on the commission supervising spending under the CARES Act, have said the Fed wasn’t legally required to return funds already transferred to it by the Treasury. But the Fed made clear it would not escalate the spat and would return the funds. Powell, in his letter, also appeared to urge the Treasury to consider using other funds held by Treasury to reauthorize at least some of the programs that will now be unable to make new loans after Dec. 31. “As you noted in your letter, non-CARES Act funds remain in the Exchange Stabilization Fund and are, as always, available, to the extent permitted by law, to capitalize any Federal Reserve lending facilities that are needed to maintain financial stability and support the economy,” Powell wrote.
Fed’s Powell Says Rising Coronavirus Cases Pose Threat to Economy – WSJ — Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the increased spread of the coronavirus posed an important risk to the economy in the months ahead and said it was too soon to say how a potential vaccine would change the outlook. “With the virus now spreading at a fast rate, the next few months may be very challenging,” Mr. Powell said during a virtual question-and-answer session Tuesday. “We’ve got a long way to go.” While recent news about successful vaccine trials was “certainly good news, particularly in the medium term, in the near term there are significant challenges and uncertainties,” Mr. Powell added. “Even in the best case, widespread vaccination is months into the future.” The spread of the coronavirus is ‘the near-term risk that we’re most focused on.’ – Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Promising reports about the efficacy of new vaccines have propelled stocks to records this week. But the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed in recent months and a report on October sales at U.S. retailers showed growth posted the smallest monthly rise since May, when spending rebounded from sharp declines in the initial phase of the pandemic. The spread of the coronavirus is “the near-term risk that we’re most focused on,” Mr. Powell said. As case counts climb and hospitalizations rise, more states are beginning to impose restrictions on commercial activity. “The concern is that people will lose confidence in efforts to control the pandemic, and … we’re seeing signs of that already,” he said. Separately, Mr. Powell obliquely addressed the fate of a suite of emergency lending programs established jointly with the Treasury Department after the pandemic convulsed financial markets this spring. The Treasury hasn’t indicated whether it supports renewing the programs, which are set to expire on Dec. 31. “The Fed will be strongly committed to using all of our tools to support the economy for as long as it takes until the job is well and truly done,” Mr. Powell said. He hinted it would be premature to wind down the lending programs. “When the right time comes, and I don’t think that time is yet or very soon, we will put those tools away,” he said. Mr. Powell said Tuesday he expected the economy would require more support from the Fed and from fiscal policy makers in Congress and the White House. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Dec. 15-16. The Fed leader also warned about the dangers that large institutions face from eroding faith and trust from the public. Mr. Powell said the Fed had “greatly increased our interactions” with members of Congress to promote transparency and accountability. “If you’re not doing those things and aggressively seeking transparency and accountability, you’re courting trouble in this world, where surveys show that generally you’re losing faith,” he said.
Q4 GDP Forecasts –Most economists are revisiting their Q4 forecasts, and many are not releasing weekly updates. In their previous forecasts, many assumed some additional disaster relief in Q4, and many underestimated the current surge in COVID. Depending on further delays in disaster relief, and the impact of the current COVID surge, we might see some significant Q4 GDP downgrades soon. It appears activity was solid in October, and that would suggest PCE growth of close to 4% in Q4, even if November and December see no month-over-month growth. No one expects a lockdown like at the end of March and in April, but it is possible that activity will decline in December.It is also possible Q1 will start very weak. Merrill Lynch economists noted this morning: “We estimate that the expiration of federal UI programs – PUA and PEUC – alone could be a drag of 1.5pp in 1Q. Cutoff of other provisions will be added headwinds at the start of the year.” The high level of uncertainty over the next few months makes forecasting extremely difficult. The automated approaches (below) do not capture this uncertainty.From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report: The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.86% for 2020:Q4. [Nov 20 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in thefourth quarter of 2020 is 5.6 percent on November 18, up from 5.4 percent on November 17. [Nov 18 estimate]It is also important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A 3.3% annualized increase in Q4 GDP, is about 0.8% QoQ, and would leave real GDP down about 2.7% from Q4 2019. The following graph illustrates this decline.This graph is through Q3 2020, and real GDP is currently off 3.5% from the previous peak. For comparison, at the depth of the Great Recession, real GDP was down 4.0% from the previous peak.
JPMorgan: Economy will shrink in first quarter due to COVID-19 spike –The U.S. economy is set to shrink in the first quarter of 2021 as a result of the out-of-control spread of COVID-19, which is forcing state and local governments to reimpose restrictions, according to an analysis by JPMorgan. “This winter will be grim, and we believe the economy will contract again in 1Q, albeit at ‘only’ a 1.0% annualized rate,” the forecast headed by economist Michael Feroli found. The current stage of the pandemic has seen case counts rise to record levels, averaging over 160,000 a day, well above the earliest peaks in March and April. While early action from Congress helped prevent an even worse economic meltdown, the recovery has slowed as Congress has failed to pass further relief. “By a wide margin, the course of the virus has been the most important factor shaping the outlook. But fiscal policy has been firmly in second place,” the report noted. Expectations that a relief deal worth $1 trillion will be reached in early 2021, alongside renewed hopes that highly effective vaccines will be widely distributed by mid-year, led JPMorgan to forecast an economic resurgence that will see annualized growth in the third quarter hit an annualized 6.5 percent, and full year growth at 3.4 percent. But the double dip recession means the outlook remains worse than it would have had the virus been kept under control. “Alas, some lasting damage still seems inevitable,” the analysis said.
Biden urges Congress to pass Democrats’ COVID-19 relief package -President-elect Joe Biden on Monday urged Congress to pass a coronavirus relief package, touting legislation House Democrats passed earlier this year that is opposed by Republicans. “Right now, Congress should come together and pass a COVID relief package like the HEROES Act that the House passed six months ago,” Biden said during remarks in Wilmington, Del. “Once we shut down the virus and deliver economic relief to workers and businesses, then we can start to build back better than before.” House Democrats passed a $3 trillion version of the HEROES Act in May and passed a $2.2 trillion, slimmed-down version of the package in October. Both versions of the package include money for state and local governments, enhanced unemployment benefits, and a second round of stimulus payments. Republicans have criticized the Democratic packages, arguing that they are too expensive. Biden urged Democrats and Republicans to work together, saying he thinks the public wants politicians to cooperate. “The refusal of Democrats and Republicans to cooperate with one another is not due to some mysterious force beyond our control. It’s a conscious decision. It’s a choice that we make,” he said. “If we can decide not to cooperate, then we can decide to cooperate.”
Twelve million to lose unemployment benefits in December – Without congressional action in the next month, over 12 million people will lose federal unemployment benefits provided in the CARES Act at the end of the year according to a new report. The sudden elimination of much-needed funds for millions of jobless workers portends a further collapse in the health, safety and well-being of millions of people and their families. On Dec. 26, the day after Christmas, unemployment researchers Andrew Stettner and Elizabeth Pancotti with the Century Foundation estimate that 7.3 million workers will lose their benefits through the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program, while 4.6 million workers will lose access to monies through the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) program. This is over half of the estimated 21.1 million people in the US currently on some form of unemployment compensation, according to the researchers, who also found that another 4.4 million people, the equivalent of roughly every person in the state of Kentucky, have already used up all of their benefits. For the millions who already have used up their yearly benefits, and the thousands more that will join them in the coming weeks, having to wait until next year is no guarantee they will begin receiving payments again. Byzantine state unemployment systems across the country continue to confound and frustrate hundreds of thousands of workers who have yet to receive their due payments. Both the PEUC and the PUA program were created with firm deadlines and restrictions in mind. The PEUC program was designed to provide up to an additional 13 weeks of payments to people who had already exhausted their state unemployment benefits, which in some states provide 26 weeks worth of payments, although several are less, with Georgia and Nevada providing only 12 weeks. The PUA program was designed for so-called “gig” or “contract” workers, such as Uber and Lyft drivers, or the self-employed, such as artists, musicians and other independent contract workers who are normally not eligible for unemployment benefits. This program is supposed to provide up to 39 weeks of payments, but for thousands of applicants, like Howard Booker in Las Vegas, months of trying to get what’s rightfully theirs has been frustrating and futile.
Grassley, Wyden criticize Treasury guidance concerning PPP loans – Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and ranking member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) on Thursday criticized new Treasury Department guidance about the tax treatment of expenses related to Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans, asking the department to revisit its approach. “We encourage Treasury to reconsider its position on the deductibility of these expenses, and the timing of those deductions, to provide relief to the small businesses that need it most,” Grassley and Wyden said in a statement. The PPP is a coronavirus relief program under which small businesses received loans that can be forgiven if the proceeds are used to maintain payroll. The legislation that created the PPP includes a provision stating that the loan forgiveness is not considered taxable income. Under guidance Treasury and the IRS issued late Wednesday, if a business hasn’t had its PPP loan forgiven at the end of the year but expects the loan to be forgiven in the future, the company cannot deduct expenses related to the loan, even if the business hasn’t yet filed for forgiveness. The guidance follows a notice Treasury and the IRS issued in the spring stating that expenses associated with loan forgiveness under the PPP are not deductible. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement Wednesday that the new guidance gives taxpayers more clarity. “These provisions ensure that all small businesses receiving PPP loans are treated fairly, and we continue to encourage borrowers to file for loan forgiveness as quickly as possible,” he added. But Grassley and Wyden said in their statement that the new guidance, along with the guidance issued earlier this year, goes against lawmakers’ intention that small businesses receiving PPP loans be able to take deductions for ordinary and necessary business expenses. “Regrettably, Treasury has now doubled down on its position in new guidance that increases the tax burden on small businesses by accelerating their tax liability, all at a time when many businesses continue to struggle and some are again beginning to close,” the senators said. “Small businesses need help maintaining their cash flow, not more strains on it.” .
Hundreds of Companies That Got Stimulus Aid Have Failed – WSJ -About 300 companies that received as much as half a billion dollars in pandemic-related government loans have filed for bankruptcy, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of government data and court filings. Many of the companies, which employ a total of about 23,400 workers, say the funds from the Paycheck Protection Program weren’t enough to keep them going as the coronavirus and lack of additional stimulus payments weighed on their businesses. The total number of companies that failed despite getting PPP loans is likely far higher. The Journal only analyzed the big borrowers from the program, which accounted for about half of the overall loans though only about 13.5% of the total participants. And many small businesses simply liquidate when they run out of cash rather than file for bankruptcy. The government awarded a total $525 billion in PPP loans to 5.2 million companies since April, according to the Small Business Administration. The SBA has only released data on the largest borrowers, which the Journal linked to bankruptcy filings. The total amount lent to companies that went bankrupt is between $228 million and $509 million – the government publishes a range for the loan amounts. Half of the 285 firms identified by the Journal have filed for bankruptcy since August. Dozens of recipients, which come from nearly every state, cited the pandemic as a primary reason for entering bankruptcy. The hospitality industry was the hardest hit among companies getting PPP loans. Restaurants and hotels that filed for bankruptcy employed nearly 6,600 workers, the most of any industry. There is growing evidence that the government’s policy of lending money with few questions asked has allowed fraud and abuse among borrowers, according to the SBA’s inspector general. The government also didn’t focus on the risk of bankruptcy for the companies getting loans as it sought to quickly get cash to workers hit by coronavirus shutdowns. The loans were guaranteed by the SBA as long as the money was spent on qualifying expenses such as payroll, so the government will likely suffer significant losses. Most small businesses in bankruptcy don’t have enough cash to fully repay creditors, according to Thomas J. Salerno, a partner with Stinson LLP in Phoenix. “That loan is going to be a general unsecured claim,” he said. “If [unsecured creditors] get 5 cents on the dollar, that’s what the SBA gets.” Companies that received PPP funds before filing for bankruptcy should generally be protected against any attempt to claw back those funds, said Howard Berkower, a partner at law firm McCarter & English LLP. The exception is where there is clear evidence of fraud. “If you took the money and bought a Lamborghini, they’re going to find you,” he said
The pandemic and Trump’s plots – Three events over the past three days cast light on the character of Trump’s post-election plots and the social and economic interests driving them. First, on Friday, reports were published in the media of an emergency meeting involving the CEOs of major American corporations in the early morning of November 6, three days after the election, to discuss Trump’s claim that he had won. According to the press reports, the meeting included the executives of Disney, Johnson & Johnson, Walmart, Goldman Sachs and other Fortune 500 companies. One account published by the Financial Times (FT) over the weekend stated that the meeting “opened on a dark note, with a warning about the possibility of a ‘coup d’etat’ from Timothy Snyder, the Yale historian and author of On Tyranny, who told the business leaders that democracies were almost always overthrown from the inside.” The meeting, held at 7:00 in the morning, demonstrates how seriously the possibility of a post-election coup by Trump to remain in power is being discussed in ruling circles. Many executives, according to the FT, resolved to back Biden out of concern that Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the election risked a social explosion. The FT quotes Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a Yale professor who organized the call, as stating that “there was great concern” that Trump’s response to the election “was leading to more cleavage in the country rather than less … They don’t want hostile workplaces.” Significantly, one of the most powerful representatives of financial capital, Stephen Schwarzman, the founder of hedge fund Blackstone, defended Trump. “Mr. Schwarzman,” the FT reported, “a Republican donor who has been one of Mr Trump’s most energetic supporters on Wall Street, sought to assuage such fears [of a coup], saying the president was within his rights to challenge election results and forecasting that the legal process would take its course.” The second event also came on Friday, when Trump made his first public remarks since the election at an event organized to claim credit for progress in the development of a coronavirus vaccine. Trump focused his remarks on the insistence that, as the pandemic is spiraling completely out of control and the death toll is rising, he will oppose any measures to stop the spread of the virus. “This administration will not be going to a lockdown,” Trump said. “Time will tell” who is in office after January 20, Trump said, “but I can tell you, this administration will not go to a lockdown … The cure cannot be … worse than the problem itself.” Trump connected this position directly to the rise on the stock markets. “I see the stock market’s up almost 400 points today again, and it’s ready to break the all-time record,” he said.
Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters condemns Twitter’s suspension of IYSSE account – Last week Twitter suspended the account of the US International Youth and Students for Social Equality (IYSSE), the youth and student group associated with the Socialist Equality Party. After a week, the account remains blocked with its posts and masthead invisible to its readers. The censoring of the IYSSE, at a time of growing interest in a genuine socialist perspective among young people has been met with an outcry and statements of protest across the United States and internationally. Roger Waters, the famed musician and co-founder of Pink Floyd, posted on his social media accounts Sunday, “Twitter has banned the International Youth and Students for Social Equality [IYSSE]. It is critical that people are informed of this effort to censor them.” In a reference to Jack Dorsey, the billionaire CEO of Twitter and Square, Waters concluded, “WHAT ARE YOU AFRAID of @JACK?” The text accompanied a photo of himself with tape over his mouth reading “Twitter.” His combined posts on Twitter and Instagram have received over 75,000 likes at the time of writing.
Establishment Elites, MSM Think Parler Is A “Threat To Democracy” Because Libertarians, Conservatives Get To Freely Post –After years of being censored on Facebook and Twitter, conservatives, libertarians, and other fans of free speech are making a mass exodus to new platforms. One that has really taken off since the election is Parler, which has been the most downloaded app in the country over the past two weeks.Unsurprisingly, the mainstream media and left-wing extremists are outraged. How dare the people who have been censored, deplatformed, and shut down on their social media sites move to a site that promises not to treat them like pariahs? (By the way, you can find me on Parler here: @daisyluther ) They go as far as to say it’s a “threat to democracy” because libertarians and conservatives get to post. I mean, seriously, we can’t be letting conservatives and libertarians post their opinions all willy-nilly, right? What will happen without the “fact-checkers?” Why on earth WOULDN’T people go to a different network?Personally, I haven’t had access to my own Facebook pages for more than a year and won’t unless I send them photos of my passport, a utility bill, and other identifying information – because they didn’t think my driver’s license was sufficient. As well, I voluntarily archived my thriving preparedness groups because of the threat of losing both my groups, my own personal account, and the accounts of all my moderators if we let through a post of which Facebook disapproved. I wrote more about it here.And remember when Twitter shut down Zero Hedge’s account for posting something about the coronavirus they deemed as misinformation that was later proven to be true? And how they put warnings on nearly anything the President posts? And how conservative and libertarian websites are being demonetized?I invite you to try posting anything on standard social media that questions vaccines, the outcome of the election, the COVID lockdowns, or is pro-gun. I’ll see you in Facebook jail.
Trump COVID Adviser: “The Only Way This Stops Is If People Rise Up” – Dr. Scott Atlas, a leading member of President Trump’s coronavirus task force, announced Sunday that “The only way this stops is if people rise up.” Atlas was responding to the decree of a new lockdown by Michigan Democrat Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Atlas tweeted out a thread with Whitmer’s announcement, and a graphic made by The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services highlighting what will be allowed to remain open and what will be forced to closed. Atlas encouraged people of Michigan to “rise up”, and added “You get what you accept. #FreedomMatters #StepUp”: Leftists immediately accused the doctor of encouraging violence, and ‘endangering’ Whitmer’s life: Scott atlas has blood on his hands – ConcernedCitizenUSA (@bitch_snarky) November 15, 2020 Oh my f’ing god…. are you kidding me? Are you trying to make the calls for violence louder? Be a leader! – TRW (@TravisWarren8) November 15, 2020 Atlas clarified that he never endorsed violence of any sort:Hey. I NEVER was talking at all about violence. People vote, people peacefully protest. NEVER would I endorse or incite violence. NEVER!! https://t.co/LljvwMvjDV – Scott W. Atlas (@SWAtlasHoover) November 16, 2020 Whitmer responded to Atlas during an interview with CNN, stating “We know that the White House likes to single us out here in Michigan – me out in particular. I’m not gonna be bullied into not following reputable scientists and medical professionals.”
Trump adviser calls for people to “rise up” against coronavirus restrictions – Less than two months after a fascist plot to kidnap and murder Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer was broken up by state police and the FBI, a top White House aide has called on the people of Michigan to “rise up” against the Democratic governor. Dr. Scott Atlas, a leader of Trump’s White House Coronavirus Task Force, made the comments Sunday night on Twitter after Whitmer unveiled new public health measures against an upsurge of the pandemic. These included a three-week closure of bars, restaurants and other indoor gathering places, an end to in-person classes in high schools, and other restrictions. “The only way this stops is if people rise up,” Atlas tweeted. “You get what you accept.” Atlas was elevated by Trump as his top public health adviser, despite having no expertise in this area. He is a radiologist turned health policy commentator for the right-wing Hoover Institution. In calling for people to “rise up” against Whitmer, Atlas is well aware that he is echoing the language of the fascist militia gunmen who were arrested in September after they had staked out Whitmer’s vacation home, planning to kidnap the governor, put her on trial for supposed tyranny because of a previous coronavirus lockdown, and then execute her. He was also mimicking the tweets of Trump himself, who called on supporters to “liberate Michigan” after the earlier Whitmer executive orders closed schools, bars and restaurants during the first phase of the pandemic, which hit Michigan particularly hard.
‘It’s Even Worse on Video’: Trump Adviser Welcomes Killing Loved Ones With Covid-19 as This May Be ‘Their Final Thanksgiving’ Anyway In his latest anti-science appeal to Americans, White House coronavirus adviser Dr. Scott Atlas on Monday night called on families to ignore the guidance of public health experts who say the holiday season should not include indoor gatherings – suggesting to Fox News that families should take the risk even for elderly or sick relatives this Thanksgiving because they will no longer be alive next year. “This kind of isolation is one of the unspoken tragedies of the elderly who are now being told, ‘Don’t see your family at Thanksgiving,'” Atlas, who has no public health expertise, told Fox host Martha MacCallum. “For many people this is their final Thanksgiving, believe it or not. What are we doing here?” Stanford University, where Atlas was a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution before joining President Donald Trump’s coronavirus team, promptly distanced itself from the doctor’s comments, while political observers expressed shock on social media. Talking Points Memo founder Josh Marshall wrote that for many Americans it will be their last Thanksgiving “because they’re attending Thanksgiving.” Protecting the elderly from Covid-19 is one of the main reasons infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci and other officials have called on Americans to skip indoor family gatherings and traveling this year. Last week he advised Americans to wear face coverings at any gatherings they do have if they don’t know the Covid-19 status of all attendees. Meanwhile, Atlas has falsely stated that face masks don’t reduce transmission of Covid-19 and is a proponent of the U.S. government taking a “herd immunity” approach to the pandemic – encouraging people who are relatively young and healthy to go about their daily lives with no regard for mask-wearing, social distancing, or the existence of a virus that’s killed more than 246,000 people in the U.S. this year, while using unspecified methods to separate them from people who are elderly or at high risk for severe Covid-19 infections. The “herd immunity” approach, euphemistically rebranded as “focused protection” by some proponents, has been denounced as “fringe” by seasoned public health officials.
Stanford faculty condemn Scott Atlas for ‘view of COVID-19 that contradicts medical science’ –Stanford University faculty on Thursday condemned the recent actions of Scott Atlas, a senior fellow at the school’s Hoover Institution who has been advising President Trump on coronavirus issues.A resolution introduced in the Faculty Senate passed with 85 percent of the vote. The resolution specified six actions that Atlas has taken that “promote a view of COVID-19 that contradicts medical science.””We call on university leadership to forcefully disavow Atlas’s actions as objectionable on the basis of the university’s core values and at odds with our own policies and guidelines concerning COVID-19 and campus life,” the resolution said.Actions cited by the faculty include: misrepresenting knowledge and opinion regarding the management of pandemics, discouraging the use of masks and other protective measures, endangering citizens and public officials, and showing disdain for established medical knowledge.The Stanford resolution also specifically singled out a tweet from Atlas that called on the people of Michigan to “rise up” against Gov. Gretchen Whitmer‘s (D) new public health measures. Atlas later clarified he was not trying to promote violence, but federal authorities earlier this year said they intercepted a plot by domestic terrorists in Michigan to kidnap Whitmer and bring her to a remote location outside the state to have her “stand trial” for the “crimes” they believed she had committed against citizens of the state and their freedoms. The resolution is the latest attempt by members of the university to distance themselves from Atlas, who is a neuroradiologist with no training in infectious diseases. In a statement issued Monday, the school said the views of Atlas are “inconsistent with the university’s approach in response to the pandemic.” According to the daily campus newsletter Stanford Report, Atlas was also criticized during the faculty senate meeting by Condoleezza Rice, the director of the Hoover Institution and former secretary of State under President George W. Bush. According to the Report, Rice called his tweet about Michigan “offensive and well beyond the boundaries of what is appropriate for someone in a position of authority, such as the one he holds.” Atlas joined the White House coronavirus task force over the summer after making numerous appearances on Fox News.
Michigan Republican announces positive coronavirus test -Michigan Rep. Tim Walberg (R) will self-isolate at home after testing positive for the coronavirus, he said in a statement Monday. Walberg, who represents Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, said he was experiencing “mild” symptoms of the virus and would continue to work from home until he recovered. “I am appreciative of people’s prayers and well-wishes,” he added. France appears to have ‘passed the peak’ of second surge, health… House launches new COVID-19 testing program Michigan is facing a surge in new coronavirus cases experts say has been brought on by the fall weather bringing people indoors. The state recorded more than 9,000 newly confirmed infections in a single day for the first time earlier in November. More than 3,200 people are hospitalized with the virus across the state, a more than 100 percent increase over the last two weeks. The state moved Sunday to limit bars and restaurants to outdoor dining and moved college and high school classes to remote-only learning, while also implementing other restrictions on public life and businesses.
Bustos tests positive for COVID-19 –Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), the chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, announced on Monday she tested positive for COVID-19. The Illinois Democrat said she was tested after experiencing mild symptoms and will quarantine while working remotely. “I have tested positive for the COVID virus. I am experiencing mild symptoms but still feel well. I have been in contact with my medical provider and, per CDC guidance, am self-isolating. Consistent with medical advice, I will be working remotely from my home in Illinois until cleared by my physician. All individuals that I had been in contact with have been notified,” she tweeted. “Across the country and the Congressional District I serve, COVID case numbers are skyrocketing. We must all continue to be vigilant in following public health best practices: wear a mask, practice social distancing, get your flu shot and wash your hands,” she added. “The only way we will get this pandemic under control is by working together.” In addition to Bustos, Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) also announced on Monday he has tested positive for coronavirus.
House launches new COVID-19 testing program – The Capitol’s attending physician launched a new COVID-19 testing program for House lawmakers and staffers on Monday as many of them return to Washington for the first time since the election. Testing will not be mandatory. But Brian Monahan said he was issuing new coronavirus protocols in the Capitol due to a rapid rise in cases throughout the country and D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser’s (D) week-old order requiring people to get tested before and after they travel to the nation’s capital. “The overall direction to travelers is to obtain a COVID 19 test prior to traveling to Washington, DC, and obtain a second COVID 19 test, 3 to 5 days after your arrival. My office will provide your post arrival test,” Monahan wrote to lawmakers and staff Sunday night. “As a critical infrastructure worker, you may conduct your official business immediately on arrival in the District of Columbia.” Congressional spouses and children, who are not essential workers, are not eligible for the free testing in the Capitol and will need to be tested at regional testing sites, Monahan wrote. They also will need to quarantine during the period between their pre-travel COVID-19 test and their post-travel test in D.C. The testing program comes amid a spike in coronavirus cases nationwide as Americans have begun to relax their social-distancing habits and are spending more time indoors as the fall weather turns cooler. There were more than 135,000 new cases reported on Sunday, down from a record 181,000 cases two days earlier. Lawmakers and medical experts have been particularly concerned about a potential outbreak in the Capitol since many members travel – by air or rail – back and forth between their districts and Washington each week. There have already been several outbreaks in the White House, sickening the first family; chief of staff Mark Meadows, a former House member; press secretary Kayleigh McEnany; and other top staffers and Cabinet members. In the House, at least 20 lawmakers have tested positive for COVID-19 since the pandemic began, according to NPR’s congressional COVID-19 tracker. The latest to come down with the coronavirus is 87-year-old Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska), the oldest member of Congress and the longest serving in the House. Rep.-elect Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), who flipped a Democratic seat in the Nov. 3 election, also has tested positive and is quarantining back home. On Monday, Progressive Caucus Co-Chair Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) said he was quarantining at home after he spent two hours in the car with his 91-year-old mother, who later tested positive. Later in the day, two other Midwesterners, Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.) and Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), the head of the Democrats’ campaign arm, said they had tested positive for COVID-19.
Senators clash on the floor over wearing masks: ‘I don’t need your instruction’ – Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) quarreled on Monday over the necessity of wearing masks while on the Senate floor. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) gave the floor over to Brown, who opened his remarks by calling for Sullivan to wear a mask as a coronavirus prevention measure. “I’d start by asking the presiding officer to please wear a mask, as he speaks and people below him or, I can’t tell you what to do but I know that,” he said before getting cut off. Sullivan interjected, “I don’t wear a mask when I’m speaking like most senators. I don’t need your instruction.” “I know you don’t need my instruction but there clearly isn’t much interest in this body in public health,” replied Brown. “We have a president who hasn’t shown up at the coronavirus task force meeting in months. We have a majority leader that calls us back here to vote on an unqualified nominee.” Brown was referring to reports that President Trump has not attended a COVID-19 task force meeting in at least five months. Admiral Brett Giroir, a member of the task force, confirmed the reports on Sunday, saying he was “not concerned” that Trump was no longer personally attending the meetings. The Ohio senator continued his denunciation of the GOP senators by bringing up the staffers present. “At the same time to vote for judge after judge after judge, exposing all the people who can’t say anything. I understand the people in front of you and the presiding officer and expose all the staff here,” he said.
Sen. Grassley, 87, says he tested positive for coronavirus (AP) – Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, the longest-serving Republican senator and third in the line of presidential succession, said Tuesday that he has tested positive for the coronavirus. Grassley, 87, had announced earlier Tuesday that he was quarantining after being exposed to the virus and was waiting for test results. On Tuesday evening, he tweeted that he had tested positive.”I’ll b following my doctors’ orders/CDC guidelines & continue to quarantine. I’m feeling good + will keep up on my work for the ppl of Iowa from home,” he tweeted. The Iowa Republican, who was in the Senate and voting on Monday, did not say how he had been exposed. His office said that he was not experiencing any symptoms and was isolating in his Virginia home.The announcement from one of the Senate’s most prominent members – and one of its oldest – underscored concerns across the Capitol about the safety of lawmakers, staff and other workers in the sprawling complex as cases have spiked across the country and members have traveled back and forth from their states. At least three members of the House have tested positive in the last week, and several more are quarantining.The increase in cases also threatens the progress of legislation and other work as the Republican Senate, in particular, tries to wrap up business in the remaining weeks of President Donald Trump’s term. Grassley’s absence on Tuesday helped Democrats block the nomination of Judy Shelton, Trump’s controversial pick for the Federal Reserve. Republican Sen. Rick Scott of Florida was also absent as he is in quarantine after an exposure.Grassley is the president pro tempore of the Senate, meaning he presides over the chamber in the absence of Vice President Mike Pence and is third in line for the presidency, behind Pence and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The president pro tempore is the senator in the majority party who has served the longest, and Grassley has been a senator for 40 years.As pro tempore, Grassley opens the Senate each day. He did so on Monday, leading the Pledge of Allegiance alongside others on the floor and then giving remarks without wearing a mask. He also joined other senators on the floor later Monday evening for a procedural vote on a federal judge, that time wearing a mask but speaking to several senators at close distance.In his remarks, Grassley said it was “more important than ever to stop the surge” of the virus around the country and the world. “This virus is hitting rural and urban areas alike,” Grassley said. “No community is immune. I ask every Iowan to continue to do their part to keep their family and neighbors safe.”Although he was not wearing a mask while he spoke, Grassley encouraged Americans to “wash your hands, limit your activity outside your household, social distance, wear a mask.” Grassley also attended leadership meetings with other Republican senators on Monday, according to Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt, another member of GOP leadership. Blunt told reporters Tuesday evening that he “was like 12 feet away” from Grassley in the meeting, which he said was in a large room.
Colorado Democrat Ed Perlmutter tests positive for coronavirus – Colorado Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) announced Tuesday that he’s tested positive for COVID-19, becoming the latest House lawmaker to be diagnosed with the virus.Perlmutter said in a statement that he is currently asymptomatic and will isolate in his Washington apartment as he works remotely.”I’ve been taking precautions like so many Coloradans over the past eight months. This serves as an important reminder that this virus is highly contagious and should be taken seriously. As we enter the holiday season, I encourage everyone to continue to heed the warnings of no personal gatherings, social distancing, and wearing a mask,” he said. The Colorado Democrat marks just the latest in a string of dozens of lawmakers who have been infected with the coronavirus. Earlier on Tuesday, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) announced he had tested positive. Others who have been diagnosed with the virus include Reps. Don Young (R-Ala.), Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) Mike Bost (R-Ill.), Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.), Rodney Davis (R-Ill.), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Joe Cunningham (D-S.C.), Neal Dunn (R-Fla.), Louie Gohmert (R-Texas), Morgan Griffith (R-Va.), Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.), Mike Kelly (R-Pa.), Ben McAdams (D-Utah), Dan Meuser (R-Pa.), Tom Rice (R-S.C.), Nydia Velflzquez (D-N.Y.) and Tim Walberg (D-Mich.), along with GOP Sens. Bill Cassidy (La.), Ron Johnson (Wis.), Mike Lee (Utah), Rand Paul (Ky.) and Thom Tillis (N.C.). Perlmutter’s diagnosis comes amid a spike in COVID-19 cases across the country. The Capitol’s attending physician launched a new testing program for members and staff on Monday amid the surge to try to ensure that a building that houses employees who travel across the district and country is not ravaged by a related flood of infections.
Sen. Rick Scott tests positive for Covid, says he has mild symptoms – Republican Sen. Rick Scott of Florida said Friday he has tested positive for the coronavirus and is working from home until he can safely return to Washington. Scott, 67, is the second Republican senator in a week to test positive for Covid-19: 87-year-old Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa announced his own diagnosis three days earlier. Republicans hold a 53-47 edge in the Senate. Just a week earlier, Scott had campaigned in Georgia for GOP Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, both of whom face runoff elections in January that could determine which party controls the Senate. During that trip, Scott appeared in a crowded restaurant and spoke without wearing a mask before a crowd in which mask-wearing was reportedly minimal. Despite his own recent actions, Scott in a pair of tweets urged Americans to “do the right things” to protect each other from contracting the virus, such as wearing a mask and maintaining a safe social distance. “After several negative tests, I learned I was positive for COVID-19 this AM. I’m feeling good & experiencing very mild symptoms,” Scott tweeted. “I’ll be working from home until it’s safe for me to return to DC. I remind everyone to be careful & do the right things to protect yourselves & others.” “Wear a mask. Socially distance. Quarantine if you come in contact with someone positive like I did,” Scott added. “We will beat this together, but we all must be responsible. I want to thank all the incredible health care workers who are working around the clock to care for patients.” In the House, 87-year-old Republican Rep. Don Young of Alaska announced last week he was being treated for Covid and is working from home. He was just re-elected to his 25th term.
Donald Trump Jr. tests positive for COVID-19 -Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, tested positive for the coronavirus earlier this week, a spokesman confirmed to The Hill on Friday. The spokesperson said in a statement that Trump Jr. tested positive “at the start of the week” and has been quarantining. He’s been asymptomatic since his diagnosis and is “following all medically recommended COVID-19 guidelines.” Trump Jr. is just the latest person in the president’s orbit to be infected by the coronavirus. News of his diagnosis came hours after Andrew Giuliani, Rudy Giuliani’s son and a White House staffer, announced that he had tested positive for the virus. The White House has already faced a number of outbreaks since the start of the pandemic, with the president, the first lady, the press secretary, the chiefs of staff to both the president and the vice president and senior advisers Stephen Miller and Hope Hicks, among others, contracting the virus at different times. The newest diagnoses come amid an alarming national spike in cases. The number of new cases reported each day routinely surpasses 150,000, and the U.S. tallied 2,015 new coronavirus deaths Thursday, marking the first time the country has hit more than 2,000 daily deaths since May. Experts have warned that the latest outbreak could be exacerbated during the coming winter months when social events move to indoor settings where the virus can be more easily spread.Trump Jr., echoing language used by other allies of the president, has downplayed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak, saying late last month that deaths are “almost nothing.” “We’ve gotten control of this, we understand how it works, they have the therapeutics to be able to deal with this,” he said on Fox News shortly before the election.
Ben Carson says he’s ‘out of the woods’ after being ‘extremely sick’ with COVID-19 — Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson said Friday he is feeling better after what appeared to be a serious bout of the coronavirus. In a Facebook post, Carson, who is a medical doctor, said he believes he is “out of the woods” after being “extremely sick” with the highly infectious virus, and that he believes an experimental treatment he took saved his life. “I was extremely sick and initially took Oleander 4X with dramatic improvement. However, I have several co-morbidities and after a brief period when I only experienced minor discomfort, the symptoms accelerated and I became desperately ill. President Trump was following my condition and cleared me for the monoclonal antibody therapy that he had previously received, which I am convinced saved my life,” he wrote, referring to a treatment that is not approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), nor is a proven COVID-19 therapeutic. “President Trump, the fabulous White House medical team, and the phenomenal doctors at Walter Reed have been paying very close attention to my health and I do believe I am out of the woods at this point,” he added. “I am hopeful that we can stop playing politics with medicine and instead combine our efforts and goodwill for the good of all people.” Carson, 69, first announced earlier this month that he’d tested positive for the coronavirus. It was not immediately clear which monoclonal antibody treatment Carson received or if he received Regeneron’s experimental antibody treatment that Trump received when he had his own battle with the coronavirus.
52-year-old guardsman is military’s 11th COVID-19 death – A 52-year-old Hawaii National Guardsman has died from COVID-19, marking the military’s 11th death from the disease. The Hawaii National Guard announced the death earlier this week, but the Pentagon first noted it in Friday’s update of the online chart the department maintains of coronavirus cases. “Sadly, the Hawaii National Guard lost a member of our ‘ohana and our heartfelt condolences and thoughts of Aloha are with the family and friends during this very difficult time,” Maj. Gen. Kenneth Hara, adjutant general for the state of Hawaii, said in a news release this week. “This personal loss reminds us that Hawaii needs everyone to comply with safe practices to prevent further spread of this deadly disease.” The airman, who was also a part-time reservist assigned to Joint Base Pearl Harbor Hickam, died Sunday after testing positive for the virus days earlier, according to the release. The death is the fourth from the National Guard. Additionally, six reservists have died from the disease. One active-duty service member has died from the coronavirus: Navy Chief Petty Officer Charles Robert Thacker Jr., a 41-year-old aviation ordnanceman. He died in April after being one of more than 1,000 sailors from the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier who contracted the virus. The Pentagon has seen a spike in virus cases in recent weeks in line with the national surge of the pandemic. Tuesday saw the military’s biggest one-day increase in cases since the start of the pandemic, with 1,314 new cases, according to CNN. The virus has also hit the upper echelons of Pentagon leadership again. The department announced Thursday night that newly installed acting policy chief Anthony Tata has tested positive for the virus. He participated in meetings last week with Lithuania’s defense minister, who also tested positive.
Dr. Fauci Warns US Likely To Cancel Christmas, Hints That Masks & Social Distancing Are Here To Stay – Across the US, millions of Americans are planning on scaled-back Thanksgiving dinners, with only members of their immediate family “bubbles” invited. Mayors of some of America’s large cities, along with the governors of California, Oregon and Washington State, have asked residents to limit travel over the holidays.As angst about the spoiled Thanksgiving holiday simmers, Dr. Anthony Fauci acknowledged Sunday during an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union” that American families should probably prepare to skip Christmas dinner, too. While Dr. Fauci has repeatedly praised Pfizer and Moderna, and assured the American public that the FDA’s first vaccine emergency-use authorization could be handed down within days, he cautioned during Sunday’s interview that people should continue to wear masks and observe social distancing even after they’ve been vaccinated. It’s just the latest unsettling hint that social distancing requirements could be here to stay. “I would recommend to people to not abandon all public health measures just because you’ve been vaccinated,” Fauci said during an appearance on CNN’s State of the Union. “Because even though for the general population it might be 90% to 95% effective, you don’t necessarily know for you how effective it is.” Later in the interview, Dr. Fauci agreed, with some trepidation, with Jake Tapper’s assessment that Christmas “is probably not going to be possible.” Dr. Fauci responded that people “can’t abandon fundamental public health measures” until the vaccine has been somewhat widely distributed. That might not be until the second or third quarter of next year. As the interview turned toward the “models” calling for massive numbers of COVID-19 deaths over the winter, Dr. Fauci claimed that calls for another 200,000 deaths in the US over the coming 4 months (a rate many times higher than where we are currently) could come to pass if people don’t obey new COVID-19 restrictions (exactly what he said last time). At this time, Dr. Fauci said that while a national lockdown doesn’t seem to be imminent, if the situation continues to worsen, anything might be possible.
As US COVID-19 cases top 11 million, Biden aides reject new lockdown to save lives – The United States passed 11 million coronavirus cases Sunday, according to the most widely used tracker, from Johns Hopkins University. The grim milestone came amid warnings from public health authorities that the death toll, now nearing 250,000, could hit half a million by the spring. In state after state, governors have been compelled to issue emergency orders for the partial or complete shutdown of bars, restaurants, gyms and other facilities where people congregate. Michigan shut down all high school sports for three weeks and issued the strongest warnings against large gatherings over the Thanksgiving holiday. One sphere, however, was entirely exempt from such restrictions: major corporate workplaces, including factories, warehouses and office buildings, where hundreds or thousands of workers are crammed together in defiance of social distancing and other public health considerations. The scale of the pandemic is far greater than it was last spring. According to Johns Hopkins, 45 states showed week-to-week increases in the number of infections, in contrast to the handful of states worst hit in March and April and the band of states across the South and Southwest that were the focal point during the summer. Every region of the country is affected, although the worst-hit states are now in the northern plains and upper Midwest – the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois, as well as Michigan. The most dangerous aspect of the new upsurge is the strain being placed on health care facilities. According to the COVID Tracking Project, there were a record 69,455 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 on Saturday, with the figure expected to hit 70,000 within days. In many areas, some urban, some rural, every available hospital bed has been filled with a coronavirus patient. As cases mount, necessary facilities will become unavailable and patients will begin dying in hallways, in emergency rooms, in ambulances and in their homes. All these strains will be compounded by the onset of the annual influenza season, which caused about 400,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths last year. The response of the Trump administration to the pandemic has been one of willful neglect, now openly proclaimed as the program of “herd immunity,” allowing the infection to run wild through the population while rejecting any public health measures that would impact corporate profits. But Biden is no more willing to impose burdens on corporate America than Trump. The members of his coronavirus task force, established last week, have made it clear that Biden rejects a lockdown of the economy, the only action that would prevent a winter of devastating death and illness while work on the development, production and distribution of a vaccine continued.
Biden, Pence both reject lockdowns to save lives as coronavirus pandemic explodes – At press conferences held only minutes apart Thursday afternoon, President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President Mike Pence each flatly rejected any possibility of a lockdown of the US economy to save lives, despite the impending catastrophe from the coronavirus pandemic. The twin statements amounted to a joint, bipartisan declaration that hundreds of thousands of Americans must die rather than sacrificing the profits of Wall Street and giant corporations, which demand that workers stay on the job no matter how hazardous the workplace has become as COVID-19 spreads uncontrollably in virtually every American state. Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden meets with residents of Kenosha at Grace Lutheran Church in Kenosha, Wis., Thursday, Sept. 3, 2020. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster) Pence’s statement was merely the reiteration of the longstanding policy of the Trump administration. He appeared at the first public briefing by the White House coronavirus task force in many months, only in order to make it emphatically clear that there was no change in Trump’s policy of back-to-work and back-to-school. The timing of the press conference seemed to be determined by the announcement the day before that schools in New York City, the largest US school district, would end in-person instruction and revert to online instruction only because of a sharp increase in the positivity rate in COVID-19 tests administered to city residents. Pence declared that the policy of the Trump administration remained that all schools should reopen for in-person instruction, even though this will mean a horrific toll in disease and death among teachers, students and school workers. The Biden statement had more political consequence, since it was a declaration by what is still expected, by the media and corporate America, to be the next administration, one which was elected in large measure because of popular outrage over the indifference and callousness evinced in Trump’s handling of the pandemic. Biden was therefore at pains to demonstrate that he would be as obedient a servant of big business as Trump, so that there would be no reason for the financial aristocracy to seek to overturn Biden’s clear-cut victory in the Electoral College and the popular vote. Appearing side-by-side with his running mate Kamala Harris, Biden offered his usual mixture of vague and mushy responses to questions about economic policy, the transition process and Trump’s efforts to overturn the election. But on the lockdown question he was categorical and definitive. After an hour-long video conference with 10 Democratic and Republican state governors, largely dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, Biden first acknowledged that the United States had reached “another tragic milestone, 250,000 deaths,” and the vast suffering this has caused. Biden then offered the victims of the pandemic only his prayers, while praising the governors for their bipartisan efforts to encourage mask wearing and restrict venues like bars and restaurants.
The Other America: The New Politics of the Poor in Joe Biden’s (and Mitch McConnell’s) USA –In the two weeks since Election 2020, the country has oscillated between joy and anger, hope and dread in an era of polarization sharpened by the forces of racism, nativism, and hate. Still, truth be told, though the divisive tone of this moment may only be sharpening, division in the United States of America is not a new phenomenon. Over the past days, I’ve found myself returning to the words of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., who, in 1967, just a year before his own assassination, gave a speech prophetically entitled “The Other America” in which he vividly described a reality that feels all too of this moment rather than that one: “There are literally two Americas. One America is beautiful … and overflowing with the milk of prosperity and the honey of opportunity. This America is the habitat of millions of people who have food and material necessities for their bodies; and culture and education for their minds; and freedom and human dignity for their spirits … “But tragically and unfortunately, there is another America. This other America has a daily ugliness about it that constantly transforms the ebulliency of hope into the fatigue of despair. In this America millions of work-starved men walk the streets daily in search for jobs that do not exist. In this America millions of people find themselves living in rat-infested, vermin-filled slums. In this America people are poor by the millions. They find themselves perishing on a lonely island of poverty in the midst of a vast ocean of material prosperity.”. Today, in the early winter of an uncurbed pandemic and the economic crisis that accompanies it, there are 140 million poor or low-income Americans, disproportionately people of color, but reaching into every community in this country: 24 million Blacks, 38 million Latinos, eight million Asians, two million Native peoples, and 66 million whites. More than a third of the potential electorate, in other words, has been relegated to poverty and precariousness and yet how little of the political discourse in recent elections was directed at those who were poor or one storm, fire, job loss, eviction, or healthcare crisis away from poverty and economic chaos. In the distorted mirror of public policy, those 140 million people have remained essentially invisible. As in the 1960s and other times in our history, however, the poor are no longer waiting for recognition from Washington. Instead, every indication is that they’re beginning to organize themselves, taking decisive action to alter the scales of political power.
Immigration Officials Ordered To Not Communicate With Biden Transition Team – Immigration officials have been ordered to not communicate with Joe Biden’s transition team until Trump formally recognizes a winner of the election. In internal emails obtained by Buzzfeed, a message was sent out last Thursday to a group of policy staffers at US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) telling them not to work with the Biden team on a transfer of power plan. The Biden administration has already begun picking staffers, and have appointed Ur Jaddou, a former lead USCIS official, to head the team responsible for reviewing the Department of Homeland Security as part of the transition. However, Jaddou is unable to do anything or coordinate with anyone who is currently in office until Emily Murphy, a Trump-appointed administrator of the General Services Administration, writes a letter of “ascertainment” recognizing the outcome of the election. While the COVID-19 public health crisis and its impact on the U.S. economy will preoccupy President-elect Joe Biden during his first weeks in office, the incoming Democratic administration is also expected to quickly start dismantling Pres. Trump’s immigration agenda.pic.twitter.com/lIPoBzembE – CBS News (@CBSNews) November 11, 2020 The message read: “I am providing the information below to clarify where things stand regarding a potential transition of administration. The GSA Administrator has not yet announced ascertainment of an apparent winner of the presidential election. She will not do so until she deems the results ‘clear.’ Until then, we all remain in a pre-election posture which [means] that there should not be any communication with the team.” The message went on to instruct all employees to avoid any contact with the Biden team until they are told to. Former ICE Director, Tom Homan, calls Biden’s plan to reverse @realDonaldTrump‘s immigration policies dangerous for the country. @foxandfriends pic.twitter.com/fFP8BjsrGB Biden has signaled that he intends to make sweeping changes to immigration. Biden reportedly plans to implement a 100-day deportations moratorium and restrict who can be arrested and deported by ICE. A source familiar with Biden’s plans said new guidance would be designed to curb so-called “collateral arrests.” The incoming Biden administration also hopes to reinstate an Obama-era program that allowed at-risk children in Central America to request refugee or parole status and reunite with their parents in the US. He also intends to increase the cap of refugees from 15,000 to 125,000.
Regulators grant relief to banks pushed past key asset limits by PPP – Federal regulators have granted relief to community banks that have ballooned in size during the coronavirus pandemic and were bumping up against any of several asset thresholds that trigger stricter supervisory requirements, according to an interim rule issued Friday. Balance sheets at some banks have grown by more than 25% during the pandemic as businesses turned to their local banks for Paycheck Protection Program and other emergency loans while local economies were shuttered to prevent the spread of the disease, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said. Under the agencies’ joint rulemaking, certain supervisory requirements involving debit interchange, capital, financial reporting and other matters generally will be based on a community bank’s asset size at Dec. 31, 2019. In some cases, the asset size from a later date can be used if it’s lower than the year-end 2019 figure. The rule defines community banks as those with assets of $10 billion or less. However, the relief – which will extend through the end of 2021 – applies to a series of regulatory requirements that kick in at various stages of a bank’s growth, including when assets reach $100 million, $500 million, $3 billion, $5 billion and $10 billion. Nine banks expanded beyond $10 billion of assets between the end of last year and the second quarter of 2020, an FDIC spokesman said late Friday. Banks above the threshold face pricing limits on debit interchange fees and other new regulatory requirements. Importantly, the rule does not relieve banks from supervision by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which is also triggered at the $10 billion-asset mark. And the rule change does not apply to the Volcker Rule limits on proprietary trading, because banks already get a two-year grace period to come into compliance with the regulation and could shrink back in size before then, the agencies noted in their rule Friday. It was not immediately clear how many banks have already crossed the other key thresholds covered by the rule, or how many were in danger of surpassing any of them soon.
Banks aren’t done building credit reserves just yet – Bankers are bracing for a wave of loan delinquencies and defaults as forbearances on loans granted at the start of the coronavirus pandemic are set to expire. Just a few months after signaling that provisions for loan losses had peaked, many banks now say they will need to continue adding to reserves into 2021, according to a survey released Thursday by IntraFi Network. Most banks have allowed borrowers to skip payments if their finances had been hit hard by lockdowns and other restrictions meant to slow the spread of the virus, but many of those grace periods have recently expired or will expire by the end of the year. In the survey of 512 bank CEOs, presidents and chief financial officers, two-thirds of respondents said that they expect loans will need to be restructured for borrowers who are unable to make payments when their deferral periods end. The survey of executives at community banks, most with assets of less than $10 billion, took place during the first two weeks of October, before a rise in new COVID-19 cases threatened more lockdowns going into the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. Reserve builds were thought to have peaked in the second quarter, when stay-at-home orders ground much of the nation’s economic activity to a halt. By the third quarter, though, many banks were setting aside less for loan losses than previously anticipated, and some even began releasing reserves because many borrowers who had received forbearance were again making monthly payments. IntraFi’s survey indicated that bankers now see the timeline for an economic recovery being pushed out further into 2021 and perhaps 2022. “The longer [the pandemic] goes on there is more weariness and concern,” said Paul Weinstein, a senior policy adviser at IntraFi. “We’re at a point where people are settling in for the long haul.” According to the survey, only 17% of executives said that they expect reserve builds to peak this year while 72% predicted that the peak would come sometime in 2021. One in 10 even predicted that their banks would need to keep adding to loan-loss reserves into 2022. There was some optimism in the survey around loan growth, which has been a source of heartburn for an industry that has seen its margins squeezed from low rates. Forty-six percent of respondents anticipated loan demand would improve over the next year, up 10 percentage points from second-quarter survey. Given how the dire economic conditions were at the start of the pandemic, Weinstein said he’s not surprised banks are somewhat more optimistic about loan demand. “I think it’s just more banks..refining their outlook more so than anything else,” Weinstein said. Executives were split on how long rates would remain compressed. While the Federal Reserve has indicated it would keep borrowing costs at record lows through 2023, executives were split on whether they believed the forecast. Forty-two percent of bankers said they think the Fed would move sooner and adjust rates before 2023, while 43% expect the central bank would keep them level through that time. Banks also had different expectations on how they would handle branch networks that have emptied during the pandemic. Nearly all bankers said they have seen foot traffic at their branches fall while mobile app users have increased, but 74% of respondents said they had no plans to cut their number of branches.
E-commerce surge rekindles debit fee fight between merchants and industry – As pandemic-scarred consumers increasingly shun traditional shopping experiences and make more purchases remotely, the long-simmering dispute between U.S. banks and merchants over debit card fees is intensifying. The latest flare-up stems from the nine-year-old federal rules that govern transaction routing, and how they should apply in an environment where e-commerce transactions account for an ever-larger share of debit card spending. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell said last month that the COVID-19 pandemic has brought additional attention to the issue of whether Visa, Mastercard and major card-issuing banks are circumventing the Fed’s rules, particularly in situations where debit-card users do not enter a four-digit personal identification number. The rules were designed to ensure that merchants have a choice of at least two unaffiliated networks over which transactions can be routed. Retailers usually prefer to send debit-card purchases over a network other than Visa or Mastercard because doing so is typically less expensive. But some large banks’ debit cards do not currently give merchants the choice of using a smaller network in situations where the shopper does not enter a PIN. The question for the Fed, which declined to comment for this article, is whether the requirement for routing choice should be enforced only when consumers swipe a piece of plastic at the cash register, or in a broader range of settings. (Aside from making purchases online, consumers also often use debit cards for telephone purchases and for recurring monthly payments, such as gym memberships.) Powell’s comments came in an Oct. 9 letter to Sen. Richard Durbin, D-Ill. Durbin is an ally of the retail industry who authored the 2010 law that not only required routing choice, but also capped debit-card swipe fees at banks with more than $10 billion of assets. In the letter, Powell said that the Fed will continue to consider and evaluate the PIN-less debit issue, but he did not commit to any particular action. Powell was responding to a July 24 letter from Durbin and Rep. Peter Welch, D-Vt., in which they asked the Fed to consider potential enforcement actions. The Democratic lawmakers also requested that the central bank play a coordinating role with other agencies, such as the Federal Trade Commission, that share jurisdiction in ensuring that financial institutions do not engage in anticompetitive practices. The FTC reportedly opened an inquiry into debit-card routing issues last year. Any government intervention would likely benefit not only retailers, but also smaller debit networks such as Star, NYCE and Pulse, while hurting Visa, Mastercard and some card-issuing banks.
What will it take to boost SBA lending? –Seven weeks into a new fiscal year, the Small Business Administration’s flagship 7(a) program is off to a sluggish start. Volume through Nov. 13 was down 22% from a year earlier, at $1.9 billion, according to SBA data. The new fiscal year began Oct. 1. Industry observers are pointing to the pandemic, along with an ongoing standoff in Washington over more federal stimulus, to explain the decline. A turnaround largely hinges on the course of the pandemic or more aggressive governmental assistance, they said. Some are calling on Congress and the agency to slash 7(a) fees, increase loan guarantees and allow larger loans to qualify for SBA assistance. If the formula seems familiar, it’s because it was tried before, in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, when it produced a spike in 7(a) volume. A similar response should spark another snapback in 2021, SBA participants said. The National Association of Government Guaranteed Lenders has been “advocating for Recovery Act-like provisions,” said Tony Wilkinson, the group’s president and CEO, referencing the 2009 law that provided SBA with $730 million to temporarily reduce fees and boost the standard 7(a) guarantee from 75% to 90%. The guarantee reverted to 75% in 2011. “Many borrowers will find it difficult to access capital as we come out of the pandemic,” Wilkinson said. “Many small businesses will experience negative trends and find their business landscape has changed.” “If you want to spur SBA activity, go back to the 90% guarantee and waive” fees, said Arne Monson, president of Holtmeyer & Monson in Memphis, Tenn. “I’m even more [supportive] of that now that it appears we’re not going to have a stimulus,” Monson said. “There’s a big need. We’re getting calls every day from banks we haven’t heard from before. … Relief, if it can be offered through the 7(a) program, is the absolute way to go.” Total 7(a) approved jumped by 35% in fiscal 2010 from a year earlier, to $12.3 billion, largely because of governmental intervention. Reforms that followed the last financial crisis were critical in driving SBA volume, said Diane Gallion, who oversees 7(a) lending at the $33.3 billion-asset Western Alliance Bancorp in Phoenix. “It made the difference in 2010, when that came around,” Gallion said. “I hope they’ll find the right balance [now] to do the right thing in the go-forward strategy.” Revamping the 7(a) program will likely become a significant topic of discussion for the incoming Biden administration, especially if stimulus talks remain deadlocked, said James Ballentine, executive vice president of congressional relations at the American Bankers Association. “If PPP is not reinstituted, I think you’ll see more conversation around 7(a) and how you make it more usable for borrowers in challenging times,” Ballentine said, adding that the ABA would support lower fees and an increased guarantee.
MBA Survey: “Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.47%” — Note: This is as of November 8th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.47%The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased for the 11th week in a row from 5.67% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.47% as of November 8, 2020 – a 20-basis-point improvement. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.7 million homeowners are in forbearance plans….”Declines in the share of loans in forbearance continued this week, with a significant increase in the rate of forbearance exits – particularly for portfolio and PLS loans,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “More than 76 percent of borrowers in forbearance are now in an extension, as we are well past the six-month point for most borrowers’ forbearance plans.” Added Fratantoni, “While the rate of new forbearance requests has declined and exits are increasing, homeowners who continue to be impacted by hardships related to the pandemic should contact their servicer for relief.”…By stage, 21.68% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 76.46% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 1.86% are forbearance re-entries.This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last few months.The MBA notes: “Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased relative to the prior week: from 0.10% to 0.08%.”There wsan’t a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits.
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly –Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.This data is as of November 17th. From Black Knight: Forbearances Tick Up After Two-Week Decline After falling by 273,000 (9 percent) over the past two weeks, forbearance volumes edged slightly upward this week. This week’s rise was a result of an increase of 15,000 forbearances among FHA/VA loans, along with 14,000 and 1,000 additional loans in forbearance among private label securities/bank portfolios and the GSEs, respectively.Despite these mild increases, there is still good news for the mortgage servicing market – the number of active forbearances remains down 7 percent from the same time in October. As of Nov. 17, there are 2.77 million active forbearances nationwide, down from a peak of 4.76 million in late May….Mid-month incremental increases have been common so far, with the strongest declines typically being seen early in the month as forbearance plans expire. 82 percent of active forbearance cases have had their terms extended.
No Payment, No Problem: In Rosy World of Forbearance, Official Delinquencies Plunge, Credit Scores of Delinquent Borrowers Jump – Wolf Richter: So what happens to debt when borrowers stop making payments on their mortgage, credit card debt, auto loan, or student loan, and the lender puts the delinquent loan into forbearance or into a deferral program, and notes the loan as “current,” despite past-due payments, because there is no payment due this month since the loan is now in forbearance? Well, the algo of credit bureaus, such as Equifax, sees that the borrower who was delinquent has “cured” the delinquency and has become “current,” and it then raises the borrower’s credit score. A brave new world, but here we are.Delinquent loan balances have plunged across all loan types, as these delinquent loans have been moved into forbearance or deferral programs, according to data from the New York Fed’s household credit report for the third quarter. The percentage of student loans that are 90 days past due plunged from 11% of total loan balances before the Pandemic to 6.5% in Q3 2020. And the percentage of newly delinquent student loans plunged from 9.4% of total loan balances before the Pandemic to 4.5%, by far the lowest in the data going back to 2004: Student loan forbearance – the program also included 0% interest on outstanding balances and cessation of collection efforts – was originally scheduled to end on September 30 but has been extended through December 31. Now among student loan borrowers, the hope of student-loan forgiveness has turned into a feeling of near-certainty, and to heck with the idea of making payments even after the forbearance programs ends. Auto loans are not backed by the government, and the deferral and forbearance programs have been implemented by private-sector lenders and loan servicers. Newly delinquent auto loan balances dropped to 5.8% of total auto loan balances, the lowest in the data going back to 2003. Note the delinquencies of auto loans during the prior crisis, when they exploded into the double digits. But this crisis now is the Best of Times: With auto loans there are two factors: Voluntary loan deferral programs by private-sector lenders and government cash sent to households. In terms of lenders, for example, Ally Financial reported last summer that in its second quarter about 21% of its auto-loan customers were enrolled in its deferral programs where they would not have to make payments for 120 days. The programs ended on September 30. For its third quarter, Ally reported that 8% of the borrowers exiting its deferral programs were 30 days or more delinquent. In terms of the government cash sent to households, this included the $1,200 per adult and $500 per child in stimulus checks, plus the extra unemployment benefits sent under federal programs, including the extra $600 a week through July, then the extra $300 a week starting in late August, plus the other special federal programs established under the CARES Act, including the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program that has been surrounded by fraud allegations. This government money helped many households keep their auto loans current.
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.85 million in October — From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Jump 4.3% to 6.85 Million in October– Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 4.3% from September to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.85 million in October. Overall, sales rose year-over-year, up 26.6% from a year ago (5.41 million in October 2019)…. Total housing inventory at the end of October totaled 1.42 million units, down 2.7% from September and down 19.8% from one year ago (1.77 million). Unsold inventory sits at an all-time low 2.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 2.7 months in September and down from the 3.9-month figure recorded in October 2019.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in October (6.85 million SAAR) were up 4.3% from last month, and were 26.6% above the October 2019 sales rate. This was the highest sales rate since early 2006. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.42 million in October from 1.46 million in September. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer. The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory. Inventory was down 19.8% year-over-year in October compared to October 2019. Months of supply decreased to 2.5 months in September. This was above the consensus forecast.
October Existing-Home Sales: 5th Consecutive Month of Growth – This morning’s release of the October Existing-Home Sales showed that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.85 million units from the previous month’s revised 6.57 million. The Investing.com consensus was for 6.45 million. The latest number represents a 4.3% increase from the previous month. Here is an excerpt from today’s report from the National Association of Realtors. – Existing-home sales continued to trend upward in October, marking five consecutive months of month-over-month gains, according to the National Association of Realtors. All four major regions reported both month-over-month and year-over-year growth, with the Midwest experiencing the greatest monthly increases. Total existing-home sales,, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 4.3% from September to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.85 million in October. Overall, sales rose year-over-year, up 26.6% from a year ago (5.41 million in October 2019). “Considering that we remain in a period of stubbornly high unemployment relative to pre-pandemic levels, the housing sector has performed remarkably well this year,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. [Full Report] For a longer-term perspective, here is a snapshot of the data series, which comes from the National Association of Realtors. The data since January 1999 was previously available in the St. Louis Fed’s FRED repository and is now only available for the last twelve months.
Comments on October Existing Home Sales – McBride – Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 6.85 million in October. A few key points:
1) This was the highest sales rate since 2006. Some of the increase over the last few months was probably related to pent up demand from the shutdowns in March and April. There are going to be some difficult comparisons next year!
2) Inventory is very low, and was down 19.8% year-over-year (YoY) in October. This is the lowest level of inventory for October since at least the early 1990s.
3) As usual, housing economist Tom Lawler’s forecast was closer to the NAR report than the Consensus.
This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2019 and 2020.Note that existing home sales picked up somewhat in the second half of 2019 as interest rates declined. Even with weak sales in April, May, and June, sales to date are up about 2.4% compared to the same period in 2019. The second graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) by month (Red dashes are 2020), and the minimum and maximum for 2005 through 2019. Sales NSA in October (573,000) were 24% above sales last year in October (462,000). This was the all time high for October (NSA).
Housing Starts increased to 1.530 Million Annual Rate in October From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,530,000. This is 4.9 percent above the revised September estimate of 1,459,000 and is 14.2 percent above the October 2019 rate of 1,340,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 1,179,000; this is 6.4 percent above the revised September figure of 1,108,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 334,000.Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,545,000. This is virtually unchanged (plus/minus 1.3 percent)* from the revised September rate of 1,545,000, but is 2.8 percent above the October 2019 rate of 1,503,000. Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 1,120,000; this is 0.6 percent above the revised September figure of 1,113,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 365,000 in October. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) were unchanged in October compared to September. Multi-family starts were down 18% year-over-year in October.Single-family starts (blue) increased in October, and were up 29% year-over-year. This is the highest level for single family starts since 2007.The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low). Total housing starts in October were above expectations, and starts in August and September were revised up, combined.
Comments on October Housing Starts –Earlier: Housing Starts increased to 1.530 Million Annual Rate in October – Total housing starts in October were above expectations, and starts in August and September were revised up, combined. The single family sectors has increased sharply, but the volatile multi-family sector is down year-over-year (apartments are under pressure from COVID).The housing starts report showed starts were up 4.9% in October compared to September, and starts were up 14.2% year-over-year compared to October 2019.Single family starts were up 29% year-over-year. Low mortgage rates and limited existing home inventory have given a boost to single family housing starts.The first graph shows the month to month comparison for total starts between 2019 (blue) and 2020 (red). Starts were up 14.2% in October compared to October 2019. Last year, in 2019, starts picked up towards the end of the year, so the comparisons were earlier this year. Starts, year-to-date, are up 6.7% compared to the same period in 2019. This is close to my forecast for 2020, although I didn’t expect a pandemic! I expect starts to remain solid, but the growth rate will slow. Below is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment). These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions. The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) increased steadily for several years following the great recession – then mostly moved sideways. Completions (red line) had lagged behind – then completions caught up with starts- then starts picked up a little again late last year, but have fallen off the pandemic. The last graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion – so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions. Single family starts are getting back to more normal levels, and I expect some further increases in single family starts and completions on rolling 12 month basis.
New Residential Building Permits: Unchanged in October The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for October new residential building permits. The latest reading of 1.545M was unchanged from the September reading and below the Investing.com forecast of 1.560M.Here is the opening of this morning’s monthly report, including a note regarding revisions: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,545,000. This is virtually unchanged (plus/minus 1.3 percent)* from the revised September rate of 1,545,000, but is 2.8 percent (plus/minus 1.6 percent) above the October 2019 rate of 1,503,000. Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 1,120,000; this is 0.6 percent (plus/minus 1.0 percent)* above the revised September figure of 1,113,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 365,000 in October. [link to report] Here is the complete historical series, which dates from 1960. Because of the extreme volatility of the monthly data points, a 6-month moving average has been included.
NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 90 in November, Record High The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 90, up from 85 in October. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Sales Growth Lifts Builder Confidence to New Record High:In another sign that housing continues to lead the economy forward, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes increased five points to 90 in November, shattering the previous all-time of 85 recorded in October, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Builder confidence levels have hit successive all-time highs over the past three months.”Historically low mortgage rates, favorable demographics and an ongoing suburban shift for home buyer preferences have spurred demand and increased new home sales by nearly 17% in 2020 on a year-to-date basis,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “Though builders continue to sign sales contracts at a solid pace, lot and material availability is holding back some building activity. Looking ahead to next year, regulatory policy risk will be a key concern given these supply-side constraints.”…All the HMI indices posted their highest readings ever in November. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose six points to 96, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased one point to 89 and the measure charting traffic of prospective buyers rose three points to 77.Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased two points to 83, the Midwest jumped six points to 80, the South rose four points to 86 and the West increased four points to 94.This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.This was above the consensus forecast.Housing and homebuilding have been one of the best performing sectors during the pandemic.
AIA: “Architecture billings remained stalled in October” -Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture billings remained stalled in October“: While architectural billings failed to show much progress during October, signs of improving business conditions at firms have emerged, according to a new report from the American Institute of Architects (AIA).The pace of decline during October remained at about the same level as in September, posting an ABI score of 47.5 (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm billings). Meanwhile, firms reported a modest increase in new project inquiries – growing from 57.2 in September to 59.1 in October – and newly signed design contracts jumped into positive territory for the first time since the pandemic began, with a score of 51.7.”Though still in negative territory, the moderating billings score along with the rebound in design contracts and inquiries provide some guarded optimism,” “The pace of recovery will continue to vary across regions and sectors.”
Regional averages: West (50.4); Midwest (49.4); South (45.8); Northeast (44.9)
Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (55.1); mixed practice (52.7); commercial/industrial (48.0); institutional (42.2)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 47.5 in October, up from 47.0 in September. Anything below 50 indicates contraction in demand for architects’ services. Note:This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.This index has been below 50 for eight consecutive months. This represents a significant decrease in design services, and suggests a decline in CRE investment through the first half of 2021 (This usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months).This weakness is not surprising since certain segments of CRE are struggling, especially offices and retail.
Rents in top NYC shopping districts are crashing and dark storefronts are multiplying. A firesale sublease by Ralph Lauren on Fifth Avenue highlights the carnage. –Ralph Lauren has agreed to sublease a large store formerly occupied by its Polo brand on Fifth Avenue for just a fraction of the astronomical rent the fashion label pays for the space on what was once one of the world’s priciest shopping corridors.The Spanish fast-fashion retail chain, Mango, has agreed to take the roughly 28,300-square-foot store on the corner of East 55th Street at 711 Fifth Avenue, two sources with direct knowledge of the transaction confirmed to Business Insider.According to other sources with knowledge of the terms of the deal, Mango will rent the space for around $5 million annually, less than 20% of the more than $27 million a year that Ralph Lauren pays for the space.Read More: Elite litigation firm Boies Schiller is looking to sublet its glitzy NYC office after a firm-wide restructuring and attorney exits.The deal offers a stark data point that illustrates the sharp decline of the brick-and-mortar store retail market amid the Covid pandemic and the yearslong advance of e-commerce.”Ground floor rents on Fifth Avenue used to be more than $3,000 per square foot – in some cases a lot more – but today there’s a growing sense that taking rents are more like one-third of that, in some cases even less,” said Richard Hodos, a vice chairman at CBRE who focuses on retail leasing transactions. “We have retailers like Nordstrom saying that a third of their sales will now come online and we don’t know where that ends, it could soon be 40% or 50%. All of that puts a tremendous downward pressure on brick and mortar space.”The deteriorating economics for retail have been even more pronounced in places such as Fifth Avenue that depend heavily on tourist and dense foot traffic. The virus has virtually halted the roughly 60 million tourists that normally flood into the city annually and continues to diminish daily commerce and street life as employees in central business districts such as Midtown have largely chosen to remain at home as a third wave of the pandemic has erupted across the country.Retail asking rents across 16 major shopping districts in Manhattan fell during the third quarter, according to data from CBRE, marking four straight years of continuous decline. The average asking rent at the end of the quarter in these districts was $659 per square foot, 12.8% less than a year ago and 4.2% below the second quarter. There were a record 254 empty stores being offered directly by landlords in the districts, an increase from last quarter’s 235 dark storefronts.Especially tourist-dependent markets have fallen even more precipitously. Times Square, for instance, saw an 18% decline in average asking rents, from $1,820 per square foot to $1,492 per square foot year over year.
NY Fed Q3 Report: “Total Household Debt Increased in Q3 2020, Led by Surge in New Credit Extensions” –From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Increased in Q3 2020, Led by Surge in New Credit Extensions; Mortgage Originations, Including Refinances, Continue to Soar The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, which shows that total household debt increased by $87 billion (0.6%) to $14.35 trillion in the third quarter of 2020. The increase more than offset the decline seen in the second quarter of 2020 as total household debt has surpassed its 2020Q1 reading. The Report is based on data from the New York Fed’s Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data. This latest report reflects consumer credit data as of September 30, 2020.Mortgage balances – the largest component of household debt – rose by $85 billion in the third quarter, and sat at $9.86 trillion on September 30. Mortgage originations, which include refinances, were at $1.05 trillion, the second highest volume in the history of the series and second only to the historic refinance boom in 2003Q3. Balances on home equity lines of credit saw a $13 billion decline, their 15th consecutive decrease since 2016Q4, bringing the outstanding balance to $362 billion….Aggregate delinquency rates across all debt products fell again in the third quarter, indicating the ongoing effect of forbearances provided by the CARES Act or voluntarily offered by lenders. New transitions into early delinquency have also fallen across product type. The various forbearance offerings and uptake have largely protected borrowers’ credit files from being marked delinquent from missed payments. As of September 30, 3.4% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the second quarter, and 1.4 percentage points lower than the rate observed in 2019Q4. About 132,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports in 2020Q3, a decline from the previous quarter and a new historical low.The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt decreased in Q3. Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q3 2013.The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency. The overall delinquency rate decreased in Q3.
American Consumers Shun Plastic but Borrow More for Homes and Cars, Fed Report Shows – WSJ -Americans continue to shy away from adding onto their credit cards even as they borrow more to buy houses and cars, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Household debt overall rose by $87 billion, or 0.6%, to $14.35 trillion in the third quarter compared with the second quarter, the New York Fed said. But credit-card balances declined by $10 billion to $810 billion. That followed a $76 billion decline in the second quarter, the steepest drop in data going back to 1999. That drop reflects both lower levels of spending due to the coronavirus pandemic as well as an effort by consumers to use extra cash to pay down debt, according to the New York Fed. Many households benefited from a temporary boost of $600 a week to unemployment compensation as well as one-time payments of $1,200 per adult and $500 per child thanks to federal legislation enacted in March. Households on average used 34.5% of those one-time payments to pay down debt, according to a separate New York Fed report released in October. Consumer spending fell sharply in March and April, when much of the economy was locked down, and has only slowly recovered. In September, household expenditures remained 2% below the previous year’s level after adjusting for inflation, according to the Commerce Department. On Tuesday, the department reported that retail sales rose at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.3% in October from September, a slower pace than in previous months. The March legislation allowed struggling households to delay payments for federally guaranteed mortgages and student loans, which freed up cash that could be used for everyday expenses or to bring down credit-card debt. Auto lenders also voluntarily offered forbearance to some borrowers. The provisions reduced the number of consumers with new foreclosure filings, according to the New York Fed data released on Tuesday. About 16,000 households went through a foreclosure in the third quarter, down from almost 24,000 in the second quarter and almost 75,000 in the first quarter. Mortgage balances rose by $85 billion to $9.86 trillion in the third quarter, the New York Fed said. Consumers took out $1.05 trillion in mortgages both for purchases and for refinances in the third quarter, the second highest volume in data going back to 2000. “Mortgage originations, including refinances, continued on their upward trend as homeowners continue to take advantage of the low interest-rate environment,” said Donghoon Lee, research officer at the New York Fed. Auto loan balances rose by $17 billion to $1.36 trillion, and student loans posted a $9 billion increase to $1.55 trillion in the third quarter.M
NYC Restaurants Face ‘Double Whammy’ Of New Restrictions And Old Man Winter – New York City restaurants face a double whammy of new coronavirus restrictions and the threat that cold weather will reduce patron activity for outdoor dining areas. Lately, the virus pandemic is on the rise in the NYC metro area, forcing Mayor Bill de Blasio to reimplement curfews and limit capacity at restaurants. Last weekend, NYPost said citywide restaurant revenues plunged as much as 30% because of the new measures. To make matters worse, the threat of cold weather next month could be disastrous for the city’s beleaguered restaurant owners. WSJ reports many restaurant operators have stockpiled propane and electric heaters to keep patrons warm during the winter months while dining on outdoor patios or sidewalks. Some operators warned the cost of new heaters and their installation is “hard to stomach.” “God forbid the mayor announces another shutdown now,” said Philippe Massoud, the chef at Lebanese restaurant Ilili in Manhattan. “I think we would all march to our graveyards, business-wise.” However, for the next couple of weeks, restaurants in the city will be blessed with warmer weather trends, something we outlined Monday as natural gas futures plunged on a warmer weather outlook report. But come December, temperatures may dive again, and compound colder weather with new restrictions, well, it may result in another wave of restaurant closures. In a recent report, Goldman Sachs points out that outdoor dining in the metro area has jumped from 10% to 40% between June and September. Goldman says below the 40 degF mark, consumer activity would slump, producing the risk consumer spending would plunge. The indoor dining ban was dismantled in late September and remains limited to 25% capacity. New restrictions are forcing restaurants to now shutter operations by 10:00 pm. “Now our last reservation is at 8 pm,” Garry Kanfer, owner of Japanese eatery Kissaki on Bowery, told NYPost. “At 9:45 pm, the check drops, and they are out by 10 pm. People are leaving, but they’re upset, even though they know it’s not our fault. One diner called to tell me his party would have ordered more food, but there wasn’t enough time.” A survey of more than 400 restaurants and bars via the industry group NYC Hospitality Alliance found 88% of them couldn’t pay full rent in October. About 30% of respondents couldn’t pay rent at all for the month.
Retail Sales increased 0.3% in October – On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.3 percent from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.7 percent from October 2019. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $553.3 billion,an increase of 0.3 percent from the previous month, and 5.7 percent above October 2019. Total sales for the August 2020 through October 2020 period were up 5.1 percent from the same period a year ago. The August 2020 to September 2020 percent change was revised from up 1.9 percent to up 1.6 percent. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.2% in October. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 7.1% on a YoY basis. The increase in October was below expectations, however sales in August and September were revised up, combined.
U.S. Retail Sales Climbed at a Slower Pace in October – WSJ — U.S. retail sales rose in October at their slowest pace since the spring, another sign the nation’s economic recovery is losing steam as coronavirus cases surge across the country. Consumer-spending data from private companies suggest shoppers turned more cautious this month, too, as last month’s jump in virus cases accelerated in November, prompting some officials to impose new restrictions, mask mandates and other mitigation strategies to slow its spread. “We’re going into a difficult winter,” Slowing payroll gains and waning government assistance mean “however you cut it, we should have weaker consumer spending over the next quarter or two than we had this summer,” Mr. Sweeney said. The Commerce Department said Tuesday that retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in October from a month earlier. That was well below a 1.6% increase in September, and it marked the smallest monthly rise in retail sales since May, when spending rebounded from sharp declines in the early phase of the pandemic. While spending on vehicles, electronics and at home-improvement stores increased last month, sales slipped in key categories such as grocery store, clothing and restaurant spending. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s tracker of 30 million credit and debit cardholders recorded a 4% decline in spending from a year earlier in the week through Nov. 13. Online shopping continues to flourish. Sales increased 3.1% in October from the prior month at nonstore retailers, a category that accounts for online merchants, according to Tuesday’s Commerce report. Retailers pushed an early start to the holiday shopping season in October with promotional events such as Amazon.com Inc.’s Prime Day. Walmart Inc. reported Tuesday that e-commerce sales in the U.S. jumped 79% in the quarter ended in late October. People are making fewer trips to Walmart stores, shifting more spending online and stocking up when they do go to stores, the company said. The retail giant’s comparable U.S. sales, those at stores or digital channels operating for at least 12 months, rose 6.4% – a slower pace than earlier in the coronavirus pandemic even as shoppers continued to buy up food and cleaning supplies and it pushed early holiday deals.
LA Area Port Traffic: Strong Imports, Weak Exports in October –Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported – and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation’s container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 2.2% in October compared to the rolling 12 months ending in September. Outbound traffic was down 0.4% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 25% YoY in October, and exports were down 5% YoY.
Industrial Production Increased 1.1 Percent in October; 5.6% Below Pre-Crisis Level -From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization– Industrial production rose 1.1 percent in October. The index has recovered much of its 16.5 percent decline from February to April, but output in October was still 5.6 percent lower than its pre-pandemic February level. After edging up 0.1 percent in September, manufacturing output increased 1.0 percent in October. The output of utilities rose 3.9 percent, while the output at mines declined 0.6 percent to a level that was 14.4 percent below its year-earlier reading. At 103.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 5.3 percent lower in October than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector increased 0.8 percentage point in October to 72.8 percent, a rate that is 7.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972 – 2019) average but 8.6 percentage points above its low in April. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April, but still well below the level in February 2020.Capacity utilization at 72.8% is 7.0% below the average from 1972 to 2017.Note: y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the change.The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.Industrial production increased in October to 103.2. This is 5.6% below the February 2020 level.The change in industrial production was close to consensus expectations, and industrial production in August and September were revised up.
U.S. Industrial Production Rose 1.1% in October – WSJ -U.S. industrial production rose last month, as output continued its slow climb back from deep declines last spring due to pandemic-related shutdowns. The Federal Reserve on Tuesday said its index of industrial production – a measure of output at factories, mines and utilities – rose a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in October, following a revised 0.4% decline in September. Output remains 5.6% below where it was in February, before the coronavirus pandemic hit, the Fed said. Economists said they expect to see production continue to make up lost ground in the coming months since demand for goods has held up better than demand for services. But the alarming rise in new coronavirus cases around the country could slow that expansion. “For December and January all bets are off, given the uncertainty over the extent and duration of the restrictions,” which will be needed to bring the new surge in Covid cases under control, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics in a note to clients. Industrial production fell at a record pace in the spring as factories were closed to halt the spread of the coronavirus. The Fed’s index plunged in March and April before rebounding in June and July. Growth since has been more muted. Manufacturing, the biggest component of production, rose 1%, after a 0.1% increase in September. Utility production rose 3.9%, the Fed said. Mining output fell 0.6% and remains 14.4% below its level a year ago. Capacity utilization, a measure of slack in the industrial economy, rose to 72.8% in October from a revised 72% in September. Economists had expected capacity utilization to reach 72.2% in October.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 742,000 –The DOL reported: In the week ending November 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 742,000, an increase of 31,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 709,000 to 711,000. The 4-week moving average was 742,000, a decrease of 13,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 755,250 to 755,750.This does not include the 320,237 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 296,374 the previous week. (There are some questions on PUA numbers).The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
US jobless claims surge – On Thursday, the US Department of Labor jobless claims report revealed that another 742,000 people filed first time unemployment claims, an increase of over 30,000 from the previous week and the highest number in a month. The increase in filings upends claims of an imminent economic “recovery” and underscores the urgent need for indefinite financial relief for jobless workers, small business owners and their families. The figures are based on the week ending November 14, just before several states such as Michigan, California, Oregon, Illinois and New Mexico began implementing stay-at-home or shelter-in-place orders to lessen the out-of-control spread of COVID-19, which has risen dramatically in the last two weeks in the US from roughly 90,000 daily cases to over 160,000 cases, according to data compiled by Worldometers. Over 255,000 have died in the US due to COVID-19 as of this writing. The haphazard, chaotic and criminally delayed lockdown measures taken by some governors and mayors, which do not include the shutting down of “superspreader” factories and schools in response to overwhelmed hospital systems, have not been accompanied by an infusion of stimulus, leaving locked down workers and small business owners to fend for themselves. Thursday’s report showed that another 233,000 workers were added to the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) program, bringing the total to 4.38 million, while claims for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program increased by 23,863 last week, raising the total to 320,234. The 233,000 added last week just to the PEUC program is about 8,000 more than total claims in a typical week prior to the pandemic. Between state unemployment and federal claims, the DoL (Department of Labor) has recorded 35 straight weeks of over 1 million jobless claims, an unprecedented number that has no historical equal since tracking began. In addition to gig workers such as DoorDash, Uber and Lyft drivers, “independent contractors” and construction workers have seen employment opportunities evaporate as entire industries went into lockdown in March and never recovered.
Note: The Employment Situation is Worse than the Headline Unemployment Rate Suggests – The headline unemployment rate has fallen to 6.9%, but that significantly understates the current situation. Note that the headline unemployment rate was 3.5% at the end of 2019. Here is a table that shows the current number of unemployed and the unemployment rate. Then I calculated the unemployment rate by including the number of people that have left the labor force since February, and the expected growth in the labor force. As the economy recovers, many of the people that left the labor force will probably return, and there will be more entrants into the labor force. This will keep the unemployment rate elevated for some time, and suggests the need for more disaster relief. This is just the headline unemployment rate. There are 2.3 million additional involuntary part time workers than a year ago (these workers are included in U-6). Note: I’d be careful looking at the weekly initial claims report in addition to the BLS report. The weekly claims report suggests there are millions of workers receiving pandemic assistance, but this should be captured in the BLS household surveys (so I wouldn’t add the numbers together).
BLS: October Unemployment rates down in 37 States, Higher in 8 States –From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary: Unemployment rates were lower in October in 37 states and the District of Columbia, higher in 8 states, and stable in 5 states, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Forty-seven states and the District had jobless rate increases from a year earlier and three states had little or no change. The national unemployment rate declined by 1.0 percentage point over the month to 6.9 percent but was 3.3 points higher than in October 2019. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 32 states, decreased in 2 states, and was essentially unchanged in 16 states and the District of Columbia in October 2020. Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment decreased in 48 states and the District and was essentially unchanged in 2 states….Hawaii had the highest unemployment rate in October, 14.3 percent, followed by Nevada, 12.0 percent. Nebraska and Vermont had the lowest rates, 3.0 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. Hawaii and Nevada are being impacted by the lack of tourism.
Boeing announces 7,000 additional layoffs – Boeing, the giant US commercial and military aviation manufacturer, has announced 7,000 layoffs, bringing its total to 30,000 for the year. The company cited the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the airline industry as the underlying cause, and also announced that there were no orders forthcoming for the entire month of October, the second consecutive month where this occurred. Boeing intends to make these cuts despite receiving $17 billion in federal bailout money earlier in the year. Additionally, 37 orders of the 737 MAX, the airliner whose serious technological defects were covered up by the company, and led to two separate crashes and 346 deaths, have been taken off the books. The collapse in new orders is driven by the crippling of the airline industry by the coronavirus pandemic, with the amount of passengers declining 65 percent. This in turn has led to a wave of route consolidations and closures. According to OAG Aviation Worldwide, the airline industry reduced 47,756 air routes operating in January to 33,416 in November, a 30 percent decline. In March, while haggling with Congress for a share of the trillion-dollar corporate bailout under the CARES Act, the airline industry held workers’ jobs for ransom, threatening tens of thousands of job cuts unless the federal government intervened. In the end, the airline industry promised only to delay any layoffs until September 30. The industry group Airlines for America announced that US carriers have shed 90,000 of the 460,000 industry jobs since March, a 20 percent reduction. Southwest Airlines is also threatening layoffs for the first time in its history unless workers accept 10 percent wage cuts. Indicating the worsening position of the airline industry, 25 of the 37 canceled orders for the 737 MAX were dropped by Boeing because of the financial weakness of the purchasers.
Boeing 737 MAX Cleared to Fly Again, Amidst Plummeting Demand for Air Travel and Aircraft as a Result of COVID-19 – Jerri-Lynn Scofield – The Wall Street Journal features an article today on the Boeing 737 MAX being cleared to fly again, Boeing 737 MAX Cleared to Fly Again, but Covid-19 Has Sapped Demand. Unfortunately, the CoVID-19 crisis has killed demand for air travel and new aircraft, especially a model that crashed twice and revealed the details of the sausage-making of Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) regulatory decisions. The FAA’s chief, Stephen Dickson, signed a formal order today lifting the grounding, 20 months after the original suspension decision, according to the New York Times, Boeing 737 Max i s Cleared by F.A.A. to Fly Again. The F.A.A. really had no choice in instituting a flying ban for the 737 MAX, as i was merely joining other countries that had already done so. Over to the WSJ; The U.S. on Wednesday approved Boeing Co. BA 3.78% ‘s 737 MAX jets for passenger flights again after dual crashes took 346 lives, helping to resolve the plane maker’s biggest pre-pandemic crisis. The Federal Aviation Administration’s official order to release the MAX, grounded since March 2019, comes as the beleaguered Chicago aerospace giant grapples with a host of new problems amid the continuing health crisis. The FAA’s order for ungrounding would allow Boeing to resume delivering the jets to airlines and let them carry passengers. But the pandemic has sapped demand for air travel, prompting airlines and aircraft-leasing firms to cancel about 10% of Boeing’s outstanding MAX orders this year. Boeing has said it believes hundreds more of its remaining 4,102 orders could be in jeopardy. By its action, the FAA concluded that the company had addressed the problems that caused the crashes. Over to the NYT:Investigators have attributed the crashes to a range of problems, including engineering fl mismanagement and a lack of federal oversight. At the root was software known as MCAS, which was designed to automatically push the plane’s nose down in certain situations and has been blamed for both crashes.In August, the F.A.A. determined that a series of proposals by Boeing – including changes to MCAS, flight crew training and the jet’s design – “effectively mitigate” its safety concerns. Mr. Dickson, a former Delta Air Lines pilot, took the controls on a test flight in September, saying he liked what he saw. The situation has already cost the company billions of dollars. As Naked Capitalism has written previously, even before the pandemic began, Boeing was unlikely to recoup its costs anytime soon, let alone turn a profit. The fallout from crashes of a Lion Air Jet in October 2018 and an Ethiopian Airlines flight in March 2019 has only worsened as the prospects for most world airlines are in freefall.
As COVID-19 spreads in workplaces, US autoworkers call for emergency action to save lives – With COVID-19 outbreaks surging across the US and record levels of infections, demands are growing among autoworkers to shut down the plants, which have become major vectors of transmission. The seriousness of the situation is highlighted by developments in the Detroit area, where major outbreaks have been reported at Fiat Chrysler plants in the northern suburb of Sterling Heights. On Monday, over 8,000 new cases were reported in Michigan, while Illinois had over 11,000 and Ohio 5,700. Nationwide, the US is reporting near 150,000 daily new cases with over 8,000 deaths in the last week, bringing total deaths to over one quarter of a million. On Saturday, the Sterling Heights Assembly Rank-and-File Safety Committee issued a statement calling for a work stoppage to halt production to save lives and demand full compensation for workers. It reported that all United Auto Workers Local 1700 shop stewards at the plant have been sent home to quarantine and at least one worker, Mark Bianchi, is already dead. Many supervisors are out with COVID-19, including all three skilled trades supervisors. One worker told the World Socialist Web Site Autoworker Newsletter that 25 people in the paint department alone were sent home on Friday due to exposure. Dearborn Truck worker (Source: Ford Media) At the nearby Sterling Stamping plant, at least 30 cases are being reported. The UAW has closed its union hall and several local stewards and reps have been sent home while the union insists that workers continue production. At the Jefferson North Assembly Plant (JNAP) in Detroit, a member of the JNAP Rank-and-File Safety Committee reported that an entire team on the “B” crew engine line was sent home after a worker tested positive for COVID-19. Last month, the UAW admitted that at least 59 JNAP workers had been infected and two had died since May. Workers say that basic safety measures, such as the mask policy, are not being strictly enforced. Screening is being done in a perfunctory and haphazard manner. Workers are not able to keep proper social distancing, with workers packed together at the exits. Even workers that exhibit COVID-19 symptoms are sometimes not being tested. Workers are not being informed of COVID-19 cases in their departments or even COVID-19 deaths. Management makes it so difficult to collect pay when workers are infected that some would prefer not to get tested and continue reporting to work. Complaints filed with the Michigan Occupational Safety and Health Administration are routinely ignored.
Sterling Heights Assembly workers demand shutdown as coronavirus spreads in factories throughout US – Support is growing among autoworkers throughout the country for a nationwide shutdown of the auto industry to contain the spread of the pandemic. On Sunday night, Michigan health officials acknowledged that manufacturing and construction sites were among the top locations for COVID-19 outbreaks in the state, but these were explicitly left out of Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s partial lockdown measures. Last week, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker also admitted that outbreaks in industrial locations, including auto factories, meatpacking and food processing plants and logistics firms, were one of the chief drivers of the new surge. In the Detroit area, the most significant outbreak appears to be taking place at Fiat Chrysler’s Sterling Heights Assembly Plant (SHAP), the largest auto plant in the area. All of the shop stewards for United Auto Workers Local 1700 have been sent home to quarantine and at least one worker, Mark Bianchi, is already dead. A worker informed the World Socialist Web Site Autoworker Newsletter that 25 people in the paint department alone were sent home on Friday due to exposure. In opposition to the UAW’s support for management sacrificing workers’ lives for profit, the Sterling Heights Assembly Plant Rank-and-File Safety Committee issued a statement on Saturday calling for a work stoppage to halt production to save lives and to demand full compensation for all affected workers. The committee calls on workers not to return to work until all necessary safety measures have been taken, including daily testing of the entire workforce, full pay for workers under quarantine, the immediate publication of all cases in the plant and an end to company and UAW intimidation against workers who speak out to the media or on Facebook. Just south of SHAP, the virus is also raging out of control at FCA Sterling Stamping Plant. Over 30 infections have now been confirmed. Yesterday UAW Local 1264 closed its union hall and several “committeemen, stewards and a benefit rep” have been sent home, according to the local. However, even as its own officials are being sent home to quarantine, the UAW is insisting that workers remain on the job to produce profits for the auto companies. A detailed analysis of the outbreak at Sterling Stamping was published last week on the World Socialist Web Site.
Managers at Tyson pork plant took bets on how many workers would contract COVID-19 – The plant manager at Tyson’s largest US pork plant ran a betting pool with supervisors and managers to wager how many employees would become infected with coronavirus, according to a recent lawsuit. So far, over 1,000 workers in the Waterloo, Iowa plant have been infected and five have died. Management also deliberately lied to the public about the extent of the infection and ordered workers with symptoms to remain on the job. While appalling, the situation at the Waterloo facility is far from unique. Nationwide, at least 50,000 meatpacking workers have been infected since the start of the pandemic and at least 253 have died, according to the Food & Environment Reporting Network. Tyson Foods, the world’s second-largest meat processing company, leads the industry with more than 11,000 confirmed infections and 35 deaths. Major outbreaks also occurred at Tyson’s pork plant in Perry, Iowa, where more than 60 percent of the workforce tested positive, and two plants in Columbus Junction and Camilla, Georgia, where together six workers died. The callous indifference to human life of the management at this particular plant is the direct outcome of the policy of “herd immunity” pursued by the entire corporate elite, sacrificing human life by keeping production going as the pandemic rages. Tyson’s fourth quarter earnings report blew past analysts’ expectations, nearly doubling its net income to $692 million and reporting increased sales volume for pork, chicken and prepared foods. While falsely claiming that any pause in production would threaten the American public with starvation, in reality Tyson is ramping up pork production to take advantage of falling output from Asian and German competitors, according to the Motley Fool, which declared the company was living “High Off the Hog.” The company’s pork and beef sales jumped by 15 and 11 percent respectively, and Tyson reportedly increased exports to China sevenfold in the first quarter.
67% Of Republicans, 21% Of Democrats Says Lives “Somewhat” Back To Pre-COVID Normal- Gallup –As COVID-19 cases were surging again across the U.S. last month, more than six in 10 Americans said their lives had not returned to pre-pandemic normalcy. Overall, 62% of Americans surveyed Oct. 19-Nov. 1 said their life right now is “not yet back to normal,” while 34% said theirs is “somewhat back to normal” and 3% said “completely” so. Among a host of key demographic subgroups, Republicans are the most likely to say their lives have somewhat (59%) or completely (8%) gotten back to what they were before COVID-19. The combined 67% of Republicans feeling like life is back to normal is more than three times the rate among Democrats (21%) and more than double that among independents (32%). Indeed, Gallup’s probability-based panel survey tracking Americans’ attitudes and behaviors related to the coronavirus situation has found discrepancies in partisans’ practices during the pandemic, which may explain why more Republicans say their lives have returned to normal. The latest data find 48% of Democrats, 41% of independents and 20% of Republicans saying they have isolated themselves from people outside their household — either “completely” or “mostly” — in the past 24 hours. At the same time, 50% of Republicans say they have made little or no attempt to isolate themselves, compared with 23% of Democrats and 38% of independents who say the same. Democrats are twice as likely as Republicans to say they “always” practiced social distancing the previous day (53% vs. 26%, respectively). Fully one-quarter of Republicans say they “rarely” or “never” did so. Similarly, 73% of Republicans think the better advice for people who do not have symptoms of the coronavirus and are otherwise healthy is to lead their normal lives as much as possible. However, majorities of Democrats (93%) and independents (60%) believe it is better to stay home as much as possible to avoid contracting or spreading the coronavirus.
Your Boss Wants to Know: What Are You Doing for Thanksgiving? – WSJ – Companies are sending a new kind of Thanksgiving message to employees this year. As Covid-19 cases surge and what is normally the year’s most-traveled holiday approaches, many employers are inquiring about workers’ Thanksgiving plans and urging them to celebrate with caution. Bosses say they worry family get-togethers could lead to more infections in workplaces and staffing crunches – though employment law limits how much say companies have on workers’ off-duty time. Those legal restrictions haven’t stopped some companies from taking measures to encourage employees to limit their Covid-19 exposure over the holiday and to safeguard workplaces. Some are offering workers paid time off for potential post-Thanksgiving quarantines, while others are asking employees to sign pledges stating that they’ll keep celebrations small. Many others are issuing memos and corporate videos reminding workers of guidance from public-health authorities on avoiding large gatherings and extensive travel. Even so, employers making such moves say that there is only so much they can do to influence employees’ Thanksgiving plans and that they will largely have to trust them to take health precautions. “I can’t mandate what people do outside,” said Lisa Buckingham, chief people, place and brand officer at Radnor, Pa.,-based Lincoln Financial Group. She has been using her weekly internal videos to push for small Thanksgiving gatherings and compliance with safety recommendations. “I’m worried that we’re going to let our guard down, and this is not the year to do that.” At XPO Logistics Inc., a trucking and logistics provider based in Greenwich, Conn., posters in work areas remind employees that the safest way to enjoy Thanksgiving is with those in their immediate households. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is giving talking points to restaurant managers to stress in pre-shift meetings the importance of limiting the size of Thanksgiving gatherings. Outdoor apparel maker Patagonia has a travel policy that requires employees to speak with their managers to develop a return-to-work plan; some may need to quarantine for 14 days, depending on state and local requirements. NorthShore University HealthSystem, a five-hospital system in the Chicago area that employs roughly 13,000 people, has asked staffers and community members to sign a voluntary safety promise on its website to, among commitments, keep social gatherings small. Bosses are typically within their rights to informally inquire about employees’ Thanksgiving plans but can run into legal pitfalls if they monitor employees’ social-media activity or take punitive measures based on how someone spends the day, says Todd Logsdon, co-chair of the workplace safety and catastrophe practice group at law firm Fisher Phillips. “You have to be careful about what kind of action you take,” he says.
70% Of Americans Unlikely To Travel For Holidays As US Faces Second Virus Wave – As many on Wall Street want to believe, the prospects of a COVID-19 vaccine are certainly not instant stimulus. For some economic realities of just how awful the travel and tourism season will be this holiday season, a new study shows that 72% of Americans are unlikely to travel for Thanksgiving, and 69% are unlikely to travel for Christmas, compounding the challenges for the travel and tourism sector. The survey of 2,200 adults was conducted on Nov. 4 by Morning Consult on behalf of the American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA). Only 32% of respondents have taken an overnight vacation or leisure trip since March. Only 21% of respondents said they would travel for Thanksgiving, and 24% will travel for Christmas. The resurgence of the virus pandemic late in 2020 forced many respondents to reevaluate travel plans for 2021. With the threat president-elect, Joe Biden will shut down the country in late January – only 24% of respondents said they would travel for spring break. And less than half (44%) said they would stay in a hotel for their next vacation a year or more from now. Chip Rogers, president and CEO of AHLA, warned that many Americans won’t be traveling for Thanksgiving, the busiest travel day of the year, and or for Christmas. The slump will be devastating to the travel and tourism industry. He called on Washington to pass another bailout bill for the industry as millions of jobs are at risk. The national hotel occupancy was 44.4% for the week ending Oct. 31, compared to 62.6% the same week last year. Occupancy in urban markets is only 35.6%, down from 71.8% one year ago. As we noted not too long ago, the hotel industry is set to unravel in an “unprecedented wave of foreclosures.” In a separate report, the World Travel & Tourism Council published a report this week, protecting a “staggering 9.2 million jobs could be lost in the US Travel & Tourism sector in 2020 if barriers to global travel remain in place.”Meanwhile, Airline For America, one of the top lobby groups for US airline carriers, warned Thursday that air travel demand is now “softening” due to the second wave of the virus pandemic.
Michigan Governor announces emergency measures as COVID-19 surges throughout the state – Responding to the massive surge of the pandemic across the state over the past week, Michigan Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer announced a series of new coronavirus restrictions on Sunday evening that are scheduled to take effect on Wednesday. Among the new rules are the suspension of in-person classes at high schools and colleges and eat-in dining at restaurants and bars, the cancellation of all organized sports, and the shutdown of nontribal casinos, movie theaters and group exercise classes. The temporary restrictions are being put in place by Whitmer for three weeks under the authority of the Michigan Public Health Code and are not the same as the executive declarations that had been issued previously such as the stay-at-home orders of last spring. Businesses are asked to allow office workers to work from home if possible. The governor’s announcement came after the number of confirmed cases in Michigan increased by 44,019 and 416 people died from COVID-19 in the past seven days. The number of coronavirus cases is now four times greater per day than it was at the height of the pandemic in April. The number of hospitalizations has also spiked, threatening to overrun the capacity of the health care systems across the state. In her 6:00 p.m. statement, Governor Whitmer said, “Right now, there are thousands of cases a day and hundreds of deaths a week in Michigan, and the number is growing. If we don’t act now, thousands more will die, and our hospitals will continue to be overwhelmed.” She said that there is a very real danger that as many as one thousand people could die per day in the near future if action were not taken “right now to slow the spread of this deadly virus.” The public health order restricts gatherings inside homes to two households at a time and health officials are strongly urging families to select a single other household to interact with over the next three weeks. The governor specifically mentioned the approaching holiday season and concerns about people gathering in homes during the cold winter months.
Washington, Michigan Impose Tough New COVID-19 Restrictions; US Tops 11 Million Cases- Live Updates – It’s been an eventful afternoon for coronavirus news. As the US surpassed 11 million confirmed COVID-19 cases, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee announced strict new social distancing restrictions that will shut down bars, restaurants, gyms and other non-essential businesses for at least 3 weeks.Meanwhile, Retail and grocery stores must limit occupancy to 25 percent, and malls are required to keep food court seating closed. Personal services, including barbershops and salons, will also be limited to 25% capacity.”Today, Sunday, November 15, 2020, is the most dangerous public health day in the last 100 years of our state’s history,” Inslee said during a news conference. “A pandemic is raging in our state. Left unchecked, it will assuredly result in grossly overburdened hospitals and morgues; and keep people from obtaining routine by necessary medical treatment for non-COVID conditions.”Other measures, like limiting outdoor dining to parties of 5 or under, along with requiring people to work from home if possible, were added to the proposal.In Michigan, meanwhile, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer warned during a press briefing that her state could see as many as 1,000 fatalities a week in the coming months if something isn’t done. Starting Monday, she closed schools, colleges, sports games and other non-essential functions for three weeks. Finally, the US topped 11 million cases on Sunday, one week after topping the 10 million mark.For the second day in a row, New Jersey has reported a record number of new cases – 4,540, to be exact – an “ALARMING” new trend as the Garden State struggles to fend off the latest wave of COVID-19 infections. Murphy also declared that “the second wave of COVID is now here,” an indication that more restrictions might be to come. Earlier this month, Murphy imposed restrictions on when certain businesses can operate along with strict new social distancing requirements. The US exceeded 100k newly confirmed COVID-19 cases for the tenth straight day on Saturday. Although they came in below Friday’s record, new cases exceeded 160k on Saturday, leaving the 7-day average at a record high, while deaths exceeded 1,300, topping 1,000 for the fifth straight day. All 50 states are officially back in expansionary territory after Vermont saw the virus’s rate of spread climb back above 1. Over the last 24 hours, 38 of 50 states reported more than 1,000 new cases, as the virus outbreak explodes, along with hospitalizations. Even deaths, which had remained surprisingly subdued as infection rates climbed in September and October, are starting to creep upward.
Iowa governor reverses course, issues statewide mask mandate – Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) reversed course and issued a statewide mask mandate on Monday after previously resisting calls for the requirement as the coronavirus surges in the state. Reynolds addressed the public and signed a proclamation Monday night that requires those 2 years old and older to wear a mask in indoor areas open to the public where they will be within six feet of people who are not members of their household for 15 minutes or longer. The proclamation will go into effect at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday and will last until 11:59 p.m. on Dec. 10. The mask mandate does not apply to those eating or drinking at bars and restaurants, those with medical disabilities preventing them from wearing a mask, and those participating in religious services, the Des Moines Register noted. “I’m afraid that these mild cases have created a mindset where Iowans have become complacent, where we’ve lost that sight of … why it was so important to flatten the curve,” she said during her public address. Reynolds also prohibited indoor gatherings of 15 people or more and outside gatherings of 30 people or more in her announcement. These gatherings include weddings and funeral receptions, family gatherings, and other nonessential gatherings of people who do not live or work together indoors, her office noted in a release. The governor’s order will also require restaurants, bars, bowling alleys, arcades, pool halls, bingo halls and indoor playgrounds to close at 10 p.m. for indoor guests. “These measures are targeted toward activities and environments where they have the potential to make a significant impact in a relatively short amount of time,” she said. “That doesn’t mean these changes will be easy or popular, but they’re necessary if we want to keep our businesses open, our kids in school and our health care system stable.” Her mask mandate comes as Iowa has seen a rapid increase in new COVID-19 cases since mid-October. The state documented a record 4,381 new cases last Monday and broke its record for most current hospitalizations on Monday with 1,392, according to the COVID Tracking Project.
California pulling ’emergency brake’ to slow record surge of COVID cases -California is pulling the “emergency brake” and tightening restrictions for 94 percent of the state’s residents amid a record-breaking increase in coronavirus cases. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) on Monday said 41 of the state’s 58 counties will be put into the most restrictive “purple” tier because of widespread virus transmission, effective tomorrow. This means indoor dining, gyms, movie theaters and houses of worship will be closed. “We are sounding the alarm,” Newsom said in a statement. Those counties must make changes in the next 24 hours, Newsom said during a press briefing, rather than the three days allowed under the state’s reopening blueprint. Counties will also be moved back after only one week of rising infection spread, rather than two. Counties will be reassessed multiple times during the course of a week, and they will be unable to move forward until the numbers improve and the state deems it safe. Newsom said the state will no longer wait until each Tuesday to impose new restrictions on counties. Daily cases have doubled in the state over the last 10 days, the fastest increase California has seen since the beginning of the pandemic. The state’s positivity rate over the past seven days is 4.6 percent. While much lower than the national average, Newsom said that rate is far too high. Just two weeks ago, the state’s positivity rate was 3.2 percent. If left unchecked, Newsom said the spread could quickly overwhelm the state’s health care system and lead to “catastrophic outcomes.” The state became the second in the nation last week to surpass 1 million cases of the virus. The U.S. has now recorded more than 11 million cases. Overnight Health Care: Moderna says coronavirus vaccine is 94.5…
Newsom orders 1-month curfew in California to combat rising virus cases – California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday announced a one-month curfew to combat the rising spread of COVID-19. Newsom tweeted that the curfew would go into effect Saturday beginning at 10 p.m. and last for the next month. Gatherings and nonessential work will be prohibited from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. in purple-tier counties.”The virus is spreading at a pace we haven’t seen since the start of this pandemic and the next several days and weeks will be critical to stop the surge. We are sounding the alarm,” Newsom said in a statement. “It is crucial that we act to decrease transmission and slow hospitalizations before the death count surges. We’ve done it before and we must do it again.” On Monday, Newsom announced that 41 of California’s 58 counties would be moved to the purple tier category. Last week California became the second U.S. state after Texas to surpass 1 million coronavirus cases. Newsom faced significant backlash over the past week for attending a 12-person birthday party for his adviser at a Napa Valley restaurant just as California became the second state to reach 1 million COVID-19 cases. California reported 11,478 cases on Wednesday, a new high for the state. COVID-19 cases jumped by 50 percent in the first week of November, according to the governor’s statement.
California, Ohio order nightly curfews on gatherings as coronavirus surges (Reuters) – California’s governor on Thursday imposed a curfew on social gatherings and other non-essential activities in one of the most intrusive of the restrictions being ordered across the country to curb an alarming surge in novel coronavirus infections. The stay-at-home order will go into effect from 10 p.m. until 5 a.m. each day, starting Saturday night and ending on the morning of Dec. 21, covering 41 of California’s 58 counties and the vast majority of its population, Governor Gavin Newsom said. “The virus is spreading at a pace we haven’t seen since the start of this pandemic, and the next several days and weeks will be critical to stop the surge,” Newsom, a Democrat, said in a statement announcing the measure a week before the Thanksgiving holiday. A similar 10 p.m.-to-5 a.m. curfew order was issued on Thursday in Ohio and will remain in effect for the next 21 days, Governor Mike DeWine, a Republican, announced separately. As in California, the Ohio curfew would not prohibit grocery stores from remaining open past 10 p.m, or keep restaurants from staying open late for takeout orders. Individuals would likewise be permitted to venture out for food, medical care, or other necessities, as well as to take a jog or walk a dog. In California, the restriction essentially marks a return to the first-in-the-nation, statewide stay-home order that Newsom imposed in March, except it applies only during the designated curfew hours rather than around the clock. Signs of a resurgent public health crisis have emerged more starkly across the country, with officials forced to retreat from tentative steps to normalize daily life during what had been a brief lull in the pandemic. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a “strong recommendation” on Thursday that Americans refrain from traveling for the holiday.
Ohio lawmakers pass bill stripping Gov. Mike DeWine of his power to issue statewide coronavirus orders – cleveland.com – Ohio lawmakers on Thursday sent Gov. Mike DeWine a bill that would strip his administration of the authority to issue statewide coronavirus orders, even though the governor said the measure would be “a disaster” and vowed to veto it. Senate Bill 311, which passed 58-30 along party lines, would ban the Ohio Department of Health from issuing mandatory quarantine orders enforced against people who are not diagnosed as sick or directly exposed to disease. It passed the state Senate in September. The bill would not void existing statewide orders, including the three-week 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew announced by the governor earlier this week, a renewed statewide mask mandate, and a “stay-at-home” order like the one DeWine ordered the state health director to issue last spring. But it would prohibit such orders from being issued in the future, and it would allow lawmakers to vote to rescind any existing state health order. Supporters say the legislation provides a needed check on the DeWine administration’s authority to unilaterally issue health orders. Conservatives, in particular, have fiercely criticized many of DeWine’s coronavirus policies, arguing they infringe on personal freedoms and unnecessarily devastate the state’s economy. A lengthy House floor debate prior to the vote involved Republican proponents arguing that they are expressing the will of their constituents and rightly checking the power of the governor versus Democrats who pointed to opposition from public-health experts saying the bill would cripple efforts to fight the coronavirus. DeWine, a Greene County Republican, said during a televised coronavirus briefing Thursday that he has “a moral obligation” to veto the bill, as it would hamstring his ability to respond to a number of crises, from pandemics to biological weapon attacks. “This bill would make Ohio slow to respond to a crisis. It would take tools away from this governor and future governors,” DeWine said. “It would put the lives of Ohioans in jeopardy. This bill is a disaster.” If DeWine follows through on his promise to reject SB 311, the Ohio Senate could override his veto if three-fifths of senators (20 of 33) vote to make it law. The bill passed the Senate in September with exactly 20 votes.
New Jersey limits indoor, outdoor gatherings ahead of Thanksgiving as COVID-19 surges — New Jersey will limit the number of people allowed to gather indoors and outdoors in an effort to bring down skyrocketing COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations, Gov. Phil Murphy (D) announced Monday. The limits on indoor gatherings will be dropped from 25 to 10 people, effective Tuesday morning, and outdoor gatherings from 500 to 150 people will be effective Nov. 23. Murphy said he understands the indoor gathering limits will be hard to enforce, but officials will do whatever is necessary to enforce compliance. “There’s no question, behind private doors, it’s harder. Which is why we are pleading with folks. We can’t be inside your living room for Thanksgiving,” Murphy said during a press conference. “I think there’s some notion that when you’re in your house, you pass through some magic doorway, and especially as we celebrate holidays, but that’s just not true,” Murphy said. Current indoor dining limits will remain in place at 25 percent capacity. Recent rules that require bars and restaurants to close indoor dining between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. each day will also not be changing. Murphy also said there will be no change to the current limits on indoor weddings, funerals, movie theaters, performances, religious services and political activities, all of which are capped at 25 percent of a venue’s capacity, or a maximum of 150 people. The new restrictions come ahead of Thanksgiving and are meant to prevent large house parties or indoor dinners with large families from multiple households. Murphy said he knows the new measures will disrupt people’s Thanksgiving plans. “And I understand why there might be frustration with this step,” Murphy said. “But as we have been saying for weeks, this will not be a normal Thanksgiving.” Murphy said the state set back-to-back records for new COVID-19 cases over the weekend, with nearly 4,400 cases Saturday and more than 4,500 on Sunday. Five percent of the state’s cumulative COVID-19 total – 14,566 cases – has come in just the past four days.
New York Sheriffs Refuse To Enforce Cuomo’s Thanksgiving COVID Order – Several county sheriffs in New York State are saying they will not enforce Governor Andrew Cuomo’s executive order that limits Thanksgiving Day gatherings to 10 people or less. Saratoga County Sheriff Michael Zurlo summed up the sheriffs’ objections nicely. “I can’t see how devoting our resources to counting cars in citizens’ driveways or investigating how much turkey and dressing they’ve purchased is for the public good,” Zurlo said in a press release. This has nothing to do with “virus fatigue,” it’s a common-sense rebellion against insanity. New York Post: In a scathing Facebook post on Saturday, Fulton County Sheriff Richard Giardino questioned the legality of Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s newly instituted 10-person cap on parties and other gatherings in private residences.“Frankly, I am not sure it could sustain a Constitutional challenge in Court for several reasons including your house is your castle,” the sheriff wrote in the Saturday post.“And as a Sheriff with a law degree I couldn’t in good faith attempt to defend it Court, so I won’t,” he said. The time has passed when grasping politicians can use the public health crisis to impose unconstitutional restrictions on citizens. The Great Virus Scare of 2020 is over and if Joe Biden tries to bring it back, he won’t find meek and mild sheep doing everything the experts are telling them to do. This, from a Mississippi public health official is typical of the scaremongering that isn’t going to work anymore: “It’s going to happen. You’re going to say hi at Thanksgiving, it’s so nice to see you, and you’re either going to be visiting her by Facetime in the ICU or planning a small funeral by Christmas,” the MSMA president said. As for the sheriffs, they’re telling Cuomo that if he wants to keep people apart, he can do it himself. “We have limited resources and we have to set priorities, so obtaining a Search Warrant to enter your home to see how many Turkey or Tofu eaters are present is not a priority,” Giardino wrote. This is something Cuomo would know if he weren’t such an arrogant, elitist, snob. Apparently, he thinks that simply by snapping his fingers and issuing a decree, his will becomes law. Sic Semper Tyrannus, baby.
Subway Service Could Be Cut 40% if No Federal Aid Arrives – The New York Times – Subway service in New York City slashed by 40 percent. Bus routes eliminated and service on the rest cut by a third. Service on two of the country’s busiest commuter rails reduced by half. This is the sober scenario the Metropolitan Transportation Authority laid out on Wednesday as the agency faces a deadline to balance its budget while grappling with an enormous multibillion-dollar financial hole caused by the pandemic and little prospect of any immediate relief from Washington. Transit officials say their doomsday plan is a worst-case scenario made necessary because even with President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. assuming office in January, it is unclear if there will be a breakthrough in Congress on another stimulus package. The M.T.A., the nation’s largest transit agency – which operates the subway, buses and two commuter rails – is seeking $12 billion in federal aid, an outcome that is far less likely if Republicans retain control of the Senate. Without federal help and with the state and city facing their own financial emergencies, the agency said it would be forced to impose some version of its proposed cuts, a move that would damage the region’s lifeline and undermine New York’s recovery from the pandemic. “New York was already going to have a difficult time,” said Nick Sifuentes, executive director of the Tri-State Transportation Campaign, an advocacy group. “But these cuts on transit are like doubling down on the difficulty level of New York getting back on its collective feet again. What might have taken a couple of years could now potentially take decades.” In recent months, the M.T.A., which received $4 billion in an earlier federal stimulus bill, has painted increasingly grim pictures of the transit system’s future as part of a strategy to pressure Congress into providing more support. But with a looming Dec. 31 deadline for passing next year’s budget, transit officials have been forced to provide some more details about what the sweeping cuts they first announced in August might include, alarming riders, union officials and elected leaders. “The New York City Transit work force will correctly view this as the greatest betrayal of their careers,” said John Samuelsen, the international president of the powerful Transit Workers Union. “There will be a rank-and-file rebellion, which will lead to chaos. It will lead to a disruption in service.” “M.T.A. workers control production maintenance and on-time performance on buses and the subway,” he added. “They don’t need to strike to make their voices heard.”
Hunger and evictions surge in the US – The worst social catastrophe to befall the US working class since the Great Depression of the 1930s continues to leave millions of people hungry, jobless and facing eviction. Video taken outside a food distribution site in Dallas, Texas this past weekend by CBS News gives some indication of the widespread hunger facing workers and their families. Saturday’s giveaway hosted by the North Texas Food Bank was the largest ever put together by the organization. Feeding America, the second-largest food charity in the US, estimates that upwards of 54 million people, including one in four children in the US are facing food insecurity. The growing need for food among millions of workers and their families is coinciding with record levels of COVID-19 infections reported in states across the country. In Texas, over 1 million have contracted the coronavirus, with over 20,000 perishing, the second highest death toll in the country behind New York. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation forecasts roughly another 190,000 deaths by March 1, 2021 if current trends continue. On top of food insecurity, between 11 and 13 million renter households across the country are at risk of eviction, according to research by Stout, an investment bank and global advisory firm. The Eviction Lab at Princeton University reports that eviction filings increased in several major metro areas following the expiration of CARES Act provisions at the end of July and before the CDC eviction moratorium was implemented on September 4. However, even with the moratorium, Princeton researchers note that evictions have continued across the country, and Stout estimates that with its expiration at the end of the year, this could lead to up to 6.4 million eviction filings. After the House and Senate passed the $2.2 trillion CARES Act at the end of March, which provided billions to Wall Street, large corporations and the well-connected, ensuring their financial stability for a lifetime, workers were left with limited protections and only temporary unemployment relief. Congress has yet to pass another bill long after the $1,200 stimulus checks have been sent out and enhanced unemployment benefits have expired. Months of inaction have left millions of workers and their families without additional stimulus, eviction protection, health care, food or medicine, exacerbating mental health issues and stress. Included in the CARES Act was an eviction moratorium that expired, along with the federal $600-a-week unemployment supplement, at the end of July. After Congress failed to come to terms on another bill at the end of July, the Centers for Disease Control, on September 4, implemented a federal eviction moratorium, which required tenants to sign a declaration and provide a copy to their landlord. This, along with additional federal unemployment assistance distributed under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) programs, are set to expire the final week of December, leaving millions of people who have yet to find jobs or come up with the monies needed to pay back rent facing eviction in less than 50 days.
US food banks and homeless shelters struggle to meet record demand ahead of Thanksgiving – With the Thanksgiving holiday less than two weeks away, food banks and homeless shelters across the United States are struggling to meet the growing demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In Dallas, Texas, thousands of people lined up in their cars in what has been described as the largest mobile food distribution in history. The North Texas Food Banks handed out 7,000 turkeys and 600,000 pounds of food on Saturday. Organizers said it was enough to feed 25,000 people. The state of Washington has seen the number of people who rely on food banks double from one million to 2.2 million this year. Linda Nageotte, the CEO of Food Lifeline, told the Seattle Times that she expects that “by the end of this year one in five Washingtonians could be facing hunger.” The pandemic has also placed an extra burden on food bank workers, who now need to prepare and box food packages together before they can be distributed. It is labor intensive work that is even more difficult during a health crisis. In an attempt to lighten the load on food banks, the Washington National Guard has sent 550 soldiers to 26 distribution sites to help. In Rochester, New York, the food bank Foodlink is working to feed a line of 50-100 people on any given day. The organization Dimitri House, which operates a food pantry and homeless shelter in Rochester, has had similar issues and has also decided to prepare meals ahead of time and distribute them to families for pick up. Laurie Prizel, the executive director for Dimitri House, told ABC13 WHAM that “we’re getting a large number of working poor individuals coming through as well, not just the typical somebody on a fixed income trying to survive. It’s people who are holding down two jobs or lost their jobs. We’re saving the average family at least $100 on a Thanksgiving meal, and it’s allowing at least the families to come together.” Every year, thousands of volunteers in Albany, New York work to feed thousands of people in need. This year, however, the Equinox Thanksgiving Day Community Dinner has found a creative solution to the problem of social distancing. Instead of hosting a large event, the organization raised $100,000 to deliver meals directly to the homes of people in need. To accomplish this the organizers will work with restaurants to purchase and prepare food, enabling them to feed needy people and support local businesses in the process.
Virginia’s largest county delays plan to expand in-person education -Virginia’s largest school system on Monday said it would be halting plans to send students back to in-person learning. Fairfax County Public Schools was planning to send 6,800 pre-kindergarten, kindergarten and special education students back to physical classrooms on Tuesday, but superintendent Scott Brabrand said that coronavirus cases had exceeded “the threshold to expand our in-person learning.” In a letter sent to families on Monday, Brabrand wrote, “We made this decision as soon as new health metrics were released and are communicating it to you immediately as promised. We always anticipated the need to potentially adjust our return to school plans as necessary during this ongoing pandemic.” The Fairfax system serves about 186,000 students. About 8,000 students have returned to classrooms so far, The Washington Post reports. Those students are currently engaged in a hybrid model of learning, and there has so far been no indication that the classrooms have become superspreaders of the coronavirus. Teachers associations representing more than 12,000 employees across five Virginia counties and municipalities also sent a letter to Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D) on Monday asking to return to phase 2 of the state’s reopening plan. “It continues to be clear that Northern Virginia is past the point of safe metrics for in-person learning in our school buildings. Everyone, including educators, wants our schools to be back to normal, but by opening when it’s not safe to do so, we increase the likelihood that normal will never come,” said the letter. Under phase 2 restrictions, only special education students, English language learners and students in pre-school through third grade would be allowed inside classrooms. However, the teachers associations requested that all learning be moved to online-only until the reported amount of cases begin to drop. Virginia reported 2,677 cases of the coronavirus on Sunday, the most cases the state has recorded in a single day, reflecting similar trends across much of the country.
Texas educators demand fully online learning to save lives – Texas has surpassed the grim total of more than 1 million coronavirus infections, with 12,461 new cases Friday. A primary factor in the explosion of cases is the reopening of schools for in-person classes at the start of October, an essential component of the broader campaign to reopen non-essential businesses. The criminal policies of returning to face-to-face education, reopening non-essential businesses, and neglecting workers’ safety at essential businesses are all part of a conscious class strategy of the financial oligarchy, who seek to expand their profits through the ramped-up exploitation of workers regardless of how many lives are lost. According to official data, there have been 20,140 deaths from COVID-19 in Texas as of this writing, while the number of daily new cases surpassed 12,000 three times last week. In Texas, both the Republicans and the Democrats have worked to reopen businesses, with state Republicans threatening to revoke funding from schools that close due to safety concerns. The Texas American Federation of Teachers (AFT) has worked to channel teachers’ opposition behind the Democratic Party and put the blame for the reopening solely on the Republicans, incessantly telling teachers that Democrats will resolve the crisis if elected. Houston, Austin and Dallas, each a viral epicenter following the reopening of schools and non-essential businesses, all have Democratic mayors. Last week, Texas public schools alone recorded over 6,600 cases among students and staff, while in total there have been nearly 40,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases tied to schools. Dallas ISD, which reopened on September 28, has recorded 837 cases since October 7. Fort Worth ISD reopened on October 5, and there have now been more than 74,000 total COVID-19 cases in the Dallas-Fort Worth area since the start of in-person classes, with a current daily average of 1,944 new cases per day. Harris County, where Houston is located, has seen the largest number of COVID-19 cases in the state at over 170,000, along with an alarming increase in hospitalizations. Houston ISD, whose reopening was endorsed by city, state and national Democrats, has reported 326 cases since September 28. The day after schools reopened in Houston, multiple outbreaks forced 20 schools to shut down for quarantine. After the district immediately reopened schools and increased the case threshold for a future shutdown, more than 150 teachers in Houston ISD and two surrounding districts held a wildcat sickout strike. The Houston Federation of Teachers, an AFT affiliate, refused to support or even acknowledge this wildcat sickout. Teachers have since told of harrowing conditions in Houston schools, with one high school teacher reporting six classrooms having to be quarantined with over 100 students affected after teachers tested positive for the virus, with little to no contract tracing done by the district.
Victimized “Teachers Against Dying” Facebook group founder discusses the struggle facing educators – Until last week, Michael Hull, the founder of the Facebook group “Teachers Against Dying,” taught 8th grade US History in Texas, but he has been forced to resign from his position due to growing pressures from his school district to return to teaching in-person. Michael has only one kidney and is therefore at risk of facing severe complications or possibly dying were he to contract COVID-19. He is also a caretaker for his sister and lives with an elderly person, who he refused to endanger by returning to the classroom. Texas has the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases of any US state at 1,093,645, and the second highest number of deaths at 20,075. The reopening of K-12 schools throughout the state has been an unmitigated disaster, leading to at least 6,600 cases among students and staff. “We’re one of the worst places in the world. El Paso has trucks with cadavers,” Michael said. “The pandemic is here, it’s not going anywhere. When we opened up bars and restaurants here, you saw a huge spike in the caseload. They’re actively working to suppress the information. We had a website where you could see the number of cases and deaths, but then one day they were gone. Trump is promoting this policy, which is characteristic of a dictator.” Describing his experience as a teacher during the pandemic, Michael said, “Last spring the schools shut down, and I was helping other teachers get used to online teaching. Over the summer, they announced they would be reopening amid a raging pandemic. It seemed strange, because they shut down in March when there were very few cases. I called the principal and assistant principal, and my mentor teacher, to let them know my situation and that I didn’t have any intention of going back in person. I also expressed that I thought people should have a choice. “My doctor wrote me a note which strongly recommended that I don’t return. I asked my district if there was a virtual position, and initially they declined. Then they asked me to wait, and finally they offered me a virtual position, but I’d have to come into the building in-person. I declined, and eventually they gave me a virtual position.” Commenting on his group, Michael said, “Teachers Against Dying was inspired by the idea that we shouldn’t normalize this situation. It’s not normal to go back to schools with face shields, it’s insane. At first it was just me starting this group, I didn’t think that much of it. It was like a protest. As it grew, I wanted to focus the group more on activism.”
Utah teachers stage wildcat sickout to demand COVID-19 testing, online instruction as cases soar– Last Thursday, dozens of teachers across the state of Utah participated in a wildcat sickout strike which they dubbed a “test out,” as they used a sick day to get tested for COVID-19. This was the first organized action taken by teachers independently of the unions. Announcing the event on the Facebook group “Teachers Take Charge,” educators wrote: “Our state fails to protect teachers and provide testing … Enough is enough! Let’s make our voices heard.” Melissa, a teacher in Granite School District, supported the initiative as a means to actually fight for systematic testing, safe conditions in schools and a return to online instruction. “If 15 cases are identified in a school, then the school is supposed to shut down,” Melissa told the World Socialist Web Site, referring to state guidelines, “but this rule is not being followed.” She stressed that even in Corner Canyon High School, where active case numbers rose to 70, “the school was not shut down.” As they fight to defend themselves and their students, educators face growing opposition from the pro-corporate teachers unions. In an interview with a local news station, Utah Education Association (UEA) President Heidi Matthews spoke against the wildcat sickout, asking educators to “be patient” and let the union negotiate with state and local politicians. “A widespread statewide testing protocol is in the works,” Matthews said, adding, “We at the Utah Education Association have been in contact with the governor’s office.” While the union negotiates with the state behind closed doors, the situation is becoming ever more life-threatening as cases surge throughout Utah and across the United States, with all-time daily records for new cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Utah reported 4,986 new COVID-19 cases on Nov. 14, an astronomical increase from 175 new cases on Aug. 23, around the time that the fall semester started. Every county in Utah has been designated as having a “very high” infection rate, meaning that there are over 200 infected persons per 100,000 within a 14-day period. Numerous counties have a 14-day infection rate that is well over 1,000. Teachers in Salt Lake County have to teach nearly full in-person classrooms of students for four to five days a week, while the 14-day infection count is 1,285. What is certain is that the number of deaths in the state, which now stands at 718, will increase dramatically in the days ahead. Republican Governor Gary Herbert responded to the skyrocketing case and hospitalization numbers last week with ineffective half-measures, mandating masks and postponing extracurricular activities. He also placed a ban on casual social gatherings until Nov. 23, giving the green light for Thanksgiving celebrations. Mandatory student testing in higher education institutions must be implemented by Jan. 1, but schools will be allowed to continue in-person instruction. Nothing is in place to reverse the current exponential rise in cases.
New York Governor Cuomo keeps schools open despite rising COVD-19 positivity rate – New York’s Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo is doubling down on efforts to block any suspension of in-person classes even as the COVID-19 pandemic once again spirals out of control in the state that was the epicenter of the virus last spring. On Tuesday, there were 2,124 people being treated for COVID-19 statewide, the highest number since early June.Interviewed by MSNBC over the weekend about the anticipated closure of New York City public schools, Cuomo made the fraudulent argument that schools are not a significant factor contributing to the current rise in infections and should remain open with in-person classes. Cuomo stated that the city should rethink the previously set seven-day rolling average positivity rate threshold of three percent to trigger the suspension of in-person classes.Schools will remain open in the city on Wednesday despite the positivity rate reaching 3.2 percent Tuesday, with the latest data showing a 2.74 percent seven-day rolling average infection rate in the city. During the interview, Cuomo repeatedly referred to the three percent rate as too low of a threshold, comparing it to 80 percent of states throughout the country where positivity rates currently exceed that level, while neglecting the fact that it is in those same areas that hospitalizations and deaths are skyrocketing. Throughout the rest of New York, Cuomo has set a positivity rate of nine percent to trigger a suspension of in-person classes for K-12 students.In subsequent comments, Cuomo urged comparing positivity rates in schools to the rates within the surrounding community to determine whether to suspend in-person classes. Both Cuomo and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, also a Democrat, have repeatedly cited dubious data reflecting low positivity rates in schools in an attempt to portray them as both safe and insignificant vectors in the community spread of the virus.Media have speculated on the possibility that the United Federation of Teachers (UFT) and de Blasio may seek to keep the schools open even if the seven-day rolling average positivity rate passes three percent. In a press conference Tuesday, de Blasio took a defensive stance on the standard to close schools, declaring, “No one is saying it’s perfect, but we have to set standards. The three percent standard was out of an abundance of caution – and we stated it as such.” However, the low infection rates within schools being cited by both Cuomo and de Blasio must be understood in the context of a general wave of student absenteeism, which reflects the wariness of parents and children with respect to a return to unsafe buildings. Further, the vast majority of students that have returned for in-person instruction are not being tested regularly, resulting in a statistically insignificant sample size and a tendency to conflate the incidence of infection among adults with that of children.
Parents outraged after NYC schools close due to rise in coronavirus infections – Many New York City parents are outraged that all in-person instruction was abruptly halted at city schools, with many expressing their frustrations over the decision and having no time to prepare for it. Mayor Bill de Blasio announced the shutdown during a late Wednesday afternoon press conference. Leah Truell, a 34-year-old single mother in Staten Island, said she learned of the news after she left work. Her son, Preston, is part of the blended learning system – a mix of remote and in-person classes – and was supposed to go back to school at P.S. 45 John Tyler on Monday. Truell, who works with Silver Lake Head Start, now has to quickly make arrangements for her son to switch to fully remote learning. She said she’s hoping a friend will be able to step in and help. “That’s not enough time. They don’t take into consideration single parents, those of us who don’t have any other option, no family, or anything like that,” she said during a phone interview Thursday. “It’s a very stressful situation.” Classrooms in the country’s largest school system will be closed the remainder of this week and then Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week going into Thanksgiving and the following Friday – which were already scheduled to be school holidays. As of now, there is no date set for when schools may reopen. Michael Melcher, 57, from Manhattan, said he thinks it may be a while before the city resumes in-person learning and during that time it will be the children who suffer. The single father has twin 5-year-old sons at P.S. 9 Sarah Anderson School. “For a 5-year-old there’s very little meaning to remote education,” he said. “I don’t think they’re going to learn how to read, how to write when it comes to online learning so I feel like I have to do that separately on my own.” Melcher, an executive coach, said closing schools was a “terrible, unscientific decision” and voiced his frustrations Thursday morning at a protest outside City Hall with other parents. “That happy Kindergarten experience, they’re not going to have that,” he said.
COVID Update: New York City schools closure could be 1st domino in rollback of coronavirus reopenings – (WABC) — New York City’s entire public school system is closed for in-person learning through Thanksgiving as coronavirus rates continue to tick upward, and it could be the first domino to fall in a larger rollback of the city’s reopening from the first wave of COVID-19. Many outraged parents are complaining that schools are shut down while businesses like bars and bowling alleys remain open, but city officials hinted that is likely to change soon. Governor Andrew Cuomo announced Wednesday that New York City would go to an orange zone if the positivity rate eclipses 3%, which would shutter indoor dining, gyms and other establishments. “It’s just a matter of time, and very likely to be in the next week or two,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said of the closures of indoor dining and gyms.Schools Chancellor Richard Carranza said the goal is to reopen schools by next month, although there is no clear path to an agreement with the United Federation of Teachers union on establishing an in-school threshold for students to return. Cuomo said schools can “test out” of orange zones and reopen if they remain closed for at least four days, clean, and test people as they return. The day after he announced that New York City schools would close to in-person learning, Mayor Bill de Blasio said Thursday that other businesses will likely shut down within a week or two, as well, to curb the spread of the coronavirus. Private schools are not impacted by the city ruling and remain open for in-person instruction. During his daily briefing Wednesday, de Blasio said the positivity rate is “exactly on the nose” of 3% on the seven-day rolling average. Thursday, the 7-day average was 3.01%. “We all are in fact are feeling very sad about this decision because so much work has been put into keeping the schools open and opening them up to begin with,” he said. “We intend to come back and come back as quickly as possible.” De Blasio said the city is working with the state by having a number of conversations with the governor on what it would take to bring schools back. “I want that to be clear,” he said. “We have stringent health and safety standard right now. We have to raise that even higher to be able to bring our schools back, but that is exactly what we are going to do.” The mayor also urged for more testing and implored parents to return the parental consent form for students to be tested. Parents of the 300,000 New York City public school students currently learning in-person were left in a state of confusion Wednesday that Gov. Andrew Cuomo insisted did not exist. “They’re not confused,” a combative Cuomo said of parents. “You’re confused.”
NYC schools still open despite COVID question shutdown – In-person learning at 1,600 New York City public schools ground to a halt Thursday after the city hit a 3% positive COVID-19 test rate, but scores of other city schools remained open for in-person classes – and some city educators are questioning the double standard. The conflicting school closure rules are especially head-scratching in the city’s sprawling universal Pre-K program, where some programs are run in Education Department buildings and others are contracted out to community-based organizations. The Education Department preschools, whose teachers belong to the powerful city teachers union, the United Federation of Teachers, are closed. Community-based programs, whose staff are a mix of non-union and DC37 members, are still open. “There’s never truly been parity between the community based schools and the DOE schools,” said Denise Alexander, a veteran educator at Our Saviors Lutheran Preschool in Brooklyn, which operates a city-funded preschool class that remains in session. “We’re providing a service for the Department of Education,” she added, but “it just doesn’t feel like they [the city] care about us.” Community-based organizations have historically served the majority of the more than 80,000 kids enrolled in free, city-funded childcare. Staffers at those programs have long faced lower pay rates, despite offering similar services and boasting identical credentials. Officials began chipping away at the pay gap last year through a pay parity agreement. But Alexander said the differing closure rules reinforced the gap in treatment. “I have friends who teach in the DOE district schools and they were shocked we were still open,” she said. City Education Department officials say that while they contract with community-based programs to run “high quality early education,” the organizations are technically regulated by the Health Department, which has determined they can stay open safely. Childcare operators are designated as essential workers by the city and state health departments.
San Diego schools continue to reopen as California surpasses 1 million COVID-19 cases – In recent weeks, California passed the grim milestone of having over 1 million COVID-19 cases, and the state has recorded 18,555 deaths. The statewide test positivity rate currently stands at 5.2 percent, with the majority of counties reporting a positivity rate well over 8 percent. Within the last week, 28 counties throughout the state were added to the most restrictive “purple” tier, placing 41 out of 55 counties in the worst category for COVID-19 case counts, which is reached when the positivity rate surpasses 8 percent. The surge in cases throughout California is part of a nationwide and international explosion in cases and deaths. The United States now has a total of 12,225,857 COVID-19 cases and 259,843 deaths. According to data from the American Academy of Pediatrics, more than 1 million children have tested positive for coronavirus, disproving the arguments advanced by the bourgeois press and politicians who argue schools are not hotbeds for spreading the virus. Such grim statistics are likely much higher due to the large number of asymptomatic cases that go untested and unreported. In response to the extreme rise in cases, California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom said in a statement Monday that he was pulling the “emergency brake” on the state’s “Blueprint for a Safer Economy” and will reinstate broad restrictions across much of the state. In reality, Newsom is advancing the position of the Democratic party, which refuses to carry out lockdowns and closures of schools and non-essential businesses. Newsom’s herd-immunity policies are geared toward keeping businesses open and production flowing, prioritizing profits over workers’ lives. Despite the fact that 94 percent of state residents live in counties in the most restrictive tier, schools, factories and other workplaces are being kept open. Newsom’s “emergency brake” measures have so far amounted to a mask mandate, citations for businesses that do not meet the required restrictions, and a possible curfew. Such measures provide no real mitigation of the virus on their own and leave millions of workers and their families to confront contracting the illness at work or school. The regulations given to “purple” counties declare that all K-12 schools that were fully online cannot offer in-person instruction while the county remains purple. However, if a school currently offers in-person instruction, even if it is for a small group or limited number of students, the school is not only allowed to maintain in-person classes, but is granted the ability to expand operations, meaning school districts throughout the state will continue with their plans to allow all students onto campuses, and resume close-to-normal operations. Many of the districts that will remain open are in communities with the highest infection rates.
Why Some Schools Close as Covid-19 Cases Rise When Others Stay Open – WSJ – In New York City, when 3% of tests for Covid-19 are positive, schools close. In Indianapolis, the trigger is 13%. As the coronavirus pandemic surges, cities and school districts – even those located near each other – are making closure decisions based on differing criteria. Nationwide, the triggers for shutting classrooms vary widely, as do the sets of authorities who make the calls. Complicating the decision: The understanding of the virus has been changing since schools across the country closed in the spring and sent more than 50 million students to remote learning. Since then, some studies show that schools aren’t major contributors to community spread. Some researchers say decisions to close often depend on a community’s density, transportation patterns, resources for safety steps, political atmosphere and local risk tolerance, as well as trends in the pandemic. New York City, the nation’s largest school district and one that had stood out this fall for committing to bringing students back to classrooms, said Wednesday that it will temporarily go remote-only, because 3% of the city’s virus tests were positive over a seven-day average, a trigger Mayor Bill de Blasio set this summer in a deal with the teachers union. To families who called on the city to continue in-person learning, the mayor said a rigorous safety standard is needed to instill confidence in parents and staff. A number of other districts have announced closures in recent weeks after thresholds were surpassed, including Pittsburgh Public Schools and Connecticut’s Bridgeport Public Schools. As of Tuesday, a dozen of the country’s largest school districts have reverted or plan to return to virtual learning after reopening in-person this fall, up from six districts last week, according to information compiled by the Council of the Great City Schools. Detroit Public Schools Community District announced last week it was suspending in-person learning as the local coronavirus test positivity rate had nearly reached its threshold of 5%. And in Indianapolis, the public health department ordered private and public K-12 schools to return to virtual learning by Nov. 30, as the rate in Marion County reached 10.3% last week. Starting Nov. 23, public schools will be remote-only. Officials expected the area to hit the previously set threshold of 13% by the end of this week. A growing body of research in the U.S. and Europe finds that because of safety procedures, schools and child-care facilities aren’t major vectors of Covid-19 transmission. A dashboard launched by a Brown University professor tracking thousands of schools has found that through early November, infection positivity rates of students at schools with in-person learning were generally lower than the rates in the surrounding communities. A recent study in Spain found that keeping schools and day-cares open during that country’s second surge of infections didn’t increase the risk of transmission of the virus. With daily Covid-19 cases more than tripling since many schools opened in September, there is no national tracking of school-based cases or data-driven directives for what it should take to keep schools open.
Learning during a pandemic: What decreased learning time in school means for student learning – EPI Blog – One reflection of how much students have learned and developed since schools closed in March can be found in late Argentinian cartoonist Quino‘s 2007 comic strip, in Manolito and his peers’ self-assessments of what they learned in school. When Manolito’s teacher asks, he replies: “From March to today, nothing,” (The implied message is: others are learning, while he is stuck.) As many parents and teachers have seen, these are the likely realities for students in 2020. Because learning time in school matters, and students’ learning and development tend to vary greatly even when schools operate in normal circumstances, challenges to learning were magnified when schools closed – due to prolonged cuts to learning time in school, the access to some “substitute” educational opportunities during the pandemic, and the many factors that influence out-of-school learning.In this blog post, we review the consequences of reduced learning time in school settings during the pandemic, and what the evidence tells us what to do about it when we begin to control the spread of the virus. (For a detailed review of the challenges COVID-19 brought to education and our policy recommendations, see “COVID-19 and student performance, equity, and U.S. education policy: Lessons from pre-pandemic research to inform relief, recovery, and rebuilding.”) One initial finding is particularly clear: we should anticipate that the major disruptions to and shortening oflearning time has impeded student learning. An easy benchmark estimate is that, on average, not having been able to complete the school year leads to an across-the-board loss in student performance on math and reading of at least 0.1 standard deviations (SD), likely larger in earlier grades. (Note that an effect size of 0.1 SD would be considered a moderate effect in education evaluation, even small for small scale, targeted, model programs; however, because the (at least) one-third school-year-length reduction we are handling here affected all students, it would lead to a very sizable aggregate loss in performance). Overall, the causal link between amount and quality of instructional time in school and student performance is well-established by research on the length of the school day and on school cancellations. And while the gains per additional hour or day may be modest, they point both to the possibility of regaining some lost ground by making up for these months and to the critical role of the quality of education received.
Stephen Schwarzman, World’s Biggest Landlord, Says Teachers Shouldn’t Pay Income Taxes –Last week, Deutsche Bank’s strategists sparked widespread outrage and mockery following the German bank’s “modest proposal” to slap those working from home with a 5% tax, as if it was somehow their fault i) they can’t work from an office when their local authorities order them to stay under house arrest, and ii) they worked long and hard to accumulate the education and develop the skillset allowing them to avoid such menial, braindead and unskilled jobs as waiters, bartenders or Wall Street strategist. Effectively, Deutsche Bank’s proposal was nothing short of cristalized socialism, in which highly qualified workers would fund the comfortable existence of those who for one reason or another decided they don’t want to be competitive in today’s labor force.What was even more bizarre is that this proposal came at a time when the entire world has effectively adopted helicopter money, which not only allows central banks to fund the entire budget deficit by purchasing virtually all the sovereign debt for sale, but has rendered taxation meaningless, which coming ahead of the Fed’s imminent launch of direct transfers of digital dollars to US households, is precisely the “big plan” to reflate the global economy and wipe the slate clean by inflating away the $258 trillion in global debt.In line with this thinking, we were far less surprised this morning when the billionaire chairman, co-founder and CEO of Blackstone, Stephen Schwarzman – who as a reminder is also the world’s largest landlord – said that teachers should be the only group of workers in the US who are exempt from paying income tax.”It will mark them apart from other types of employment as a valued class” he said. Focusing on the very education that all those who don’t work from home need in order to be able to work from home, Schwarzman said that the US must bolster its education system, noting that only 5% of children in public schools are learning computer science, and adding that the business community needs to help provide apprenticeships for schools.To be sure, Blackstone has lots of experience mitigating its income tax payments: the world’s largest manager of alternative assets with $584.4 billion, has benefited from Trump’s tax cuts, with the 2017 tax cuts encouraging Blackstone to convert its publicly traded partnership to a corporation, which pays far less tax per Trump’s signature law. “We have an income insufficiency problem and we need to solve that with a different type of minimum wage,” Schwarzman said. “We need a Marshall plan for the middle class. We need to make sure there’s enough income for people.”
BankThink: Private student lenders need to reset ability-to-repay expectations — As higher education is creating new models to keep up with workforce needs in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, innovative student financing also needs to be part of the revolution. Otherwise, the gap in access could lead to further economic and social inequity in the country. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin asked in a recent essay: “What happens to young workers?” He was referring to those who are currently facing major labor market dislocations as the economy weathers the pandemic. Indeed, a disproportionate number of young workers in the economy – especially within the personal services sector like restaurants and retail) – will lose their jobs, potentially forever, and face an uncertain economic future. Even before the pandemic, it was well known that we urgently needed to improve workforce training and retraining for ongoing relevance and financial independence. The economy continues to grapple with labor shortages in key sectors, including transportation, skilled-trade labor, cybersecurity/IT, education and healthcare. The solution to this now pandemic-exacerbated problem that Barkin suggests appears simple: The economy “needs smart, flexible and concerted training efforts to prepare people, particularly displaced workers and young people with less education, for other in-demand fields.” Barkin is right. In order to increase training, there needs to be policies that expand the scope for Pell Grants and increased community college funding, as he prudently suggests. These are helpful policy suggestions, but alone will not empower individuals to pursue the range of career-advancing training and education they seek, and that the economy demands. Innovative private-sector student payment and financing models will also need to be part of the solution. These solutions, however, must align with student interests by helping them pursue educational programs that truly expand economic opportunity and professional advancement, while not saddling them with debt and illusory benefits. There have been far too many headlines over the years of educational institutions that fail to deliver on job placement or other promises made to students. The key to advancing a system that furthers student interests, while also solving the skilled-labor shortage the economy faces, is to prudently incorporate data and empirical outcomes into student payment and financing models. Recently, however, some have raised questions regarding the use of expected future income (typically based on prior college majors) in underwriting. Other observers are generally concerned about for-profit vocational and skills-training programs. On the first item, the concern is that using future income may have an unfair impact on protected classes of borrowers. However, income information – especially for programs focused exclusively on career and earnings advancement – is not only appropriate from a fair lending standpoint, but is essential in order to avoid saddling students with debt they can’t repay. The importance of analyzing a borrower’s ability to repay was detailed in various federal laws enacted in the past decade. And both federal and state regulators have taken actions against student lenders who made loans to borrowers who were unlikely to repay. To solve for ability-to-repay concerns – and to increase access to funding – lenders should consider the future expected income based on empirical data about the value of the professional or vocational education to ensure that loans are likely to be within the borrower’s capacity to repay.
Joint Statement: Over 235 Orgs Call on President-Elect Biden to Cancel Federal Student Debt on Day One using Executive Action – Americans for Financial Reform – Today, over 235 organizations sent a letter to President-Elect Biden and Vice President-Elect Harris, calling on them to use executive authority to cancel federal student debt on day one of their administration. In the letter, 238 nonprofit and community organizations highlight that cancelling student debt would stimulate the economy, help reduce the racial wealth gap, and could have a positive impact on health outcomes. The groups write that “executive action is one of the few available tools that could immediately provide a boost to upwards of 44 million borrowers and the economy,” and that it would be an important first step in advancing the President-Elect’s campaign priorities to ensure racial equity, focus on economic recovery, and deliver COVID-19 relief. Signers include: American Federation of Teachers, National Education Association, The Education Trust, Hispanic Federation, NAACP, National Urban League, UnidosUS, League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC), National Women’s Law Center, SEIU, UE (United Electrical, Radio and Machine Workers of America), the Coalition on Human Needs, Children’s Defense Fund, the American Psychological Association, Council on Social Work Education, Disability Rights Education & Defense Fund, Greenpeace, Sunrise Movement, Minority Veterans of America, the United States Student Association, Bend the Arc: Jewish Action, and the National Advocacy Center of the Sisters of the Good Shepherd. The letter was led by Americans for Financial Reform, the Center for Responsible Lending, Demos, the National Consumer Law Center, and Student Borrower Protection Center. “President-Elect Biden can – and should – cancel student debt on Day One of his presidency,” said Ashley Harrington, federal advocacy director and senior counsel at the Center for Responsible Lending. “Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, student debt exacerbated existing systemic inequities and racial disparities. Just as with the Great Recession, communities of color are disproportionately affected by the current crisis. They also shoulder a disproportionate amount of the $1.6 trillion student debt burden that is draining our economy. Cancellation will help jumpstart spending, create jobs, and add to the GDP. Short-term payment suspension alone is not enough to help struggling borrowers who are unemployed, already in default, or in serious delinquency. Borrowers need real relief, and they need it on Day One.”
COVID-19 Compounding Inequalities – The United Nations’ renamed World Social Report 2020 (WSR 2020) argued that income inequality is rising in most developed countries, and some middle-income countries, including China, the world’s fastest growing economy in recent decades. While overall inter-country inequalities may have declined owing to the rapid growth of economies like China, India and East Asia, national inequalities have been growing for much of the world’s population, generating resentment.In 2005, when the focus was on halving poverty, thus ignoring inequality, the UN drew attention to The Inequality Predicament. Secretary-General Kofi Annan warned that growing inequality within and between countries was jeopardizing achievement of the internationally agreed development goals.”Leave no one behind” has become the rallying cry of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Reducing inequality within and among countries is now the tenth of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted in 2015.Uneven and unequal economic growth over several decades has deepened the divides within and across countries. Thus, growing inequality and exclusion were highlighted in earlier WSRs onInequality Matters, The Imperative of Inclusive Development and Promoting Inclusion Through Social Protection.The UNDP’s Human Development Report 2019 (HDR 2019) drew attention to profound education and health inequalities. While disparities in ‘basic capabilities’ (e.g., primary education and life expectancy) are declining, inequalities in ‘enhanced capabilities’ (e.g., higher education) are growing. Meanwhile, inequalities associated with social characteristics, e.g., ethnicity and gender, have been widening. The January 2020 Oxfam Davos report, Time to Care, highlighted wealth inequalities as the number of billionaires doubled over the last decade to 2,153 billionaires, owning more than the poorest 60% of 4.6 billion. WSR 2020 shows that the wealthiest generally increased their income shares during 1990-2015. With large and growing disparities in public social provisioning, prospects for upward social mobility across generations have been declining. HDR 2019 found that growing inequalities in human development “have little to do with rewarding effort, talent or entrepreneurial risk-taking”, but instead are “driven by factors deeply embedded in societies, economies and political structures”. “Far too often gender, ethnicity or parents’ wealth still determines a person’s place in society”. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted many existing inequalities, and may push 71 million more people into extreme poverty in 2020, the first global rise since 1998, according to the 2020 UN SDGs Report.
China Economy Gathers Steam, Setting Stage for a Strong End to the Year – WSJ – China’s economic activity posted a broad-based recovery in October, paving the way for a faster economic rebound in the final quarter of the year. Both investment and consumer spending grew at faster year-over-year rates in October than the month before, while industrial production, the first sector to emerge from this year’s coronavirus-induced slump, remained solid. Industrial output, which has led the nation’s economic recovery in recent months, rose 6.9% in October from a year earlier, on par with September’s pace and higher than market expectations for a 6.5% increase, according to data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics. Fixed-asset investment rose 1.8% in the January-October period, accelerating from 0.8% growth in the first three quarters of the year and coming in higher than the 1.6% increase expected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Retail sales, a key gauge of Chinese consumer spending, rose 4.3% in October from a year ago, accelerating from a 3.3% increase in September, but lower than a 4.6% increase expected by surveyed economists. The Chinese government’s main unemployment measure, the urban surveyed jobless rate, which excludes migrant workers who were once employed in cities but returned home for various reasons, also fell slightly to 5.3% in October, compared with September’s 5.4%. “Economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to be even faster than that of the third quarter,” Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the statistics bureau, said in a briefing Monday, adding that the growth in China’s imports and exports will outpace that of the world as a whole, even though uncertainties hover over the overseas economy. China’s economy rebounded to 4.9% year-over-year growth in the third quarter, compared with a 6.8% contraction in the first quarter and a 3.2% expansion in the second quarter. Economists widely expected growth of between 5% and 6% in the fourth quarter, putting the world’s second largest economy on track to record an expansion of about 2% for all of 2020.
Germany’s schools remain open despite a massive second wave of COVID-19 -According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), 267 more COVID-19 patients died in Germany on Monday, in the space of just 24 hours. By Tuesday morning, 14,419 new infections were registered. Over the past seven days, there have been 145 cases per 100,000 inhabitants nationwide, with numerous hot spots reporting much higher rates. In Berlin alone, there are currently over 1,000 COVID-19 patients in hospital, 274 of whom are being treated or ventilated in intensive care units. The seven-day incidence rate in central Berlin is 360. The virus has spread rapidly throughout Europe and has claimed 330,000 lives so far. In neighbouring Austria, high case numbers forced the government to tighten its lockdown and close schools on Saturday. Intensive care units in Italy, France, Spain, and Switzerland are on the verge of collapse. In this situation, the federal and state governments are insisting that schools, day care centres and businesses continue to operate. On Monday evening, the chancellor’s pandemic talks with the state premiers ended without any result. Angela Merkel and the heads of the state governments agreed on nonbinding “appeals” and refused even to impose a simple binding obligation to wear masks in schools. With schools and day care centres remaining open, all further decisions have been postponed until November 25. Meanwhile, the pandemic is continuing to spread throughout such facilities. According to a report in this week’s Der Spiegel magazine, coronavirus infections in children have increased tenfold in the last few weeks. According to the RKI, more than 10,400 coronavirus infections in children under 14 years of age were registered in the first week of November. (At the beginning of September, there were less than 1,000 per week.) A further study from Bavaria last week showed that six times more minors than previously known have been infected with the virus. The number of children who suffer from severe symptoms and must go to hospital has also risen.
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