Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 15November 2020

Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

News posted last week about economic effects related to the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some articles are summarized here. We cover the latest economic data, especially GDP, the jobs report, banking oversight, mortgage delinquencies, local schools & universities, plus coronavirus relief (stimulus) or lack thereof. The bulk of the news is from the U.S., with a few articles from overseas at the end. (Picture below is morning rush hour in downtown Chicago, 20 March 2020.) News items about epidemiology and other medical news for the virus are reported in a companion article.

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Fed’s Bullard Says Economy Has Recovered Faster Than Expected – WSJ – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis leader James Bullard said Friday U.S. central-bank policy is in a good place as the economy continues to snap back amid challenges from the coronavirus pandemic. “We’ve got rates at very low levels and expected to stay at very low levels; we’ve got a pace of purchases that’s pretty substantial,” Mr. Bullard told reporters after a video appearance. “We don’t know what’s around the corner as far as the crisis goes, so all those things make me think that we’re in a good position for now” with monetary policy, he said. Mr. Bullard, who is not a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said the Fed is not even contemplating lifting its short-term rate target right now off near-zero levels. Mr. Bullard also played down the need for more government aid to the economy, noting that the first round of fiscal stimulus was so large that it has been able to carry the economy even now. In his prepared remarks, Mr. Bullard said the economy has recovered from the coronavirus pandemic much quicker than expected, and he sees more room for the unemployment rate to fall. But the official also said “downside risk remains substantial, and continued execution of a granular, risk-based health policy will be critical to maintain economic momentum.” Mr. Bullard didn’t make forward-looking policy comments in his prepared materials, but he did say that central bank and broader government-aid efforts have been “exceptionally effective” in helping the economy weather the pandemic’s shock. Mr. Bullard said the economy continues to adapt to the coronavirus and said unemployment, now at 6.9%, could fall to between 4.9% and 5.5% by year-end, depending on how workers are called back.

Fed Chair Powell Says Rising Virus Cases Could Challenge Economic Recovery – WSJ – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said it is too soon to say how progress in the global hunt for a coronavirus vaccine will influence the U.S. economy, particularly given concerning increases in infections that could weaken the recent economic recovery. “The next few months could be challenging,” Mr. Powell said Thursday during a virtual panel discussion with other central bankers. On the implications of a vaccine, he added, “From our standpoint, it’s just too soon to assess with any confidence the implications of the news for the path of the economy, especially in the near term.” Mr. Powell spoke Thursday alongside two of his foreign counterparts, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey. Fed officials left their policy stance unchanged last week at a meeting that took place before it was clear that President-elect Joe Biden had defeated President Trump and before the latest positive developments on the vaccine front. U.S. stock markets flirted with record levels earlier this week after Pfizer announced a vaccine it is developing with BioNTech proved better than expected at protecting people from Covid-19, bringing closer a potential milestone in the global hunt to end the pandemic. Yields on the 10-year Treasury jumped to 0.957% on Monday after the Pfizer announcement from 0.821% at the end of last week. Yields stood at 0.918% shortly before Mr. Powell spoke late Thursday morning. Mr. Powell described the U.S. recovery as faster and stronger than officials had expected, even though it had slowed in recent months. He also said the rebound has been uneven and incomplete. “We do see the economy continuing on a solid path of recovery, but the main risk we see to that is the further spread of disease here in the United States,” he said.

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy — These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It will interesting to watch these sectors recover as the vaccine is distributed. The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red). This data is as of Nov 8th. The seven day average is down 65% from last year (35% of last year). The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities. This data is updated through November 7, 2020. This data is “a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. Note that this data is for “only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market”. Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown. Note that dining is generally turning down more in the northern states – Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York – but only turning down slightly in the southern states. This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years. Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 5th. Movie ticket sales have picked up slightly over the last couple of months, and were at $12 million last week (compared to usually around $150 million per week in the early Fall). This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. This data is through October 31st. Hotel occupancy is currently down 29.0% year-over-year. Since there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate, we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement. This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020:This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week last year of . At one point, gasoline supplied was off almost 50% YoY. As of October 30th, gasoline supplied was off about 8.8% YoY (about 91.2% of last year). This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: “This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities.” According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is at 52% of the January level. It is at 41% in Chicago, and 55% in Houston – and declining recently. Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage. This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This data is through Friday, November 6th. Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.

The Economic Outlook – WSJ November Survey – No acceleration in growth rates, but GDP level higher relative to October survey; few see a true “V”, or a true “W”. Figure 1: GDP as reported in 2020Q2 3rd release (black), WSJ April survey (tan), May survey (green), June survey (red), July survey (pink), August survey (blue), September (brown), October (chartreuse), November (pink), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR, all on log scale. Source: BEA, various vintages, WSJ survey, various vintages, author’s calculations.Note that while the implied projected level of GDP is higher in the November survey, this is not because growth prospects have brightened going forward. Rather, it’s because Q3 growth outperformed the 28.5% growth (SAAR) in the mean October survey (results discussed in this post).Figure 2 shows the mean GDP forecast, and the fastest forecasted growth (James Smith).( I want whatever pharmaceutical that guy takes!) and the slowest (Robert Dietz of the NAHB) over the next four quarters (2020Q3-2021Q2).Figure 2: GDP as reported in 2020Q3 advance release (black), James Smith/Economic Forecaster LLC (red), Robert Dietz/National Assn of Home Builders (green), Amy Crew Cutts/A.C. Cutts & assoc. (pink), all in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR, on log scale. Source: BEA, 2020Q2 3rd release, October WSJ survey, and author’s calculations.Smith predicts a “V” recovery. Only one forecasts a “W” recovery (Amy Crew Cutts).The survey was taken between November 6-10, so after election day, and presumably after it became somewhat clear who would win the presidency and who would control the senate.Personally, I think that with the fast-deteriorating Covid-19 situation (cases, hospitalizations, deaths all rising), Trump administration complete abdication of a public health response, and administration obstruction of a transition to the new administration, I think most of these forecasters are underestimating the likelihood of zero growth in 2020Q4 and into 2021Q1.In today’s newsletter, Goldman Sachs represents mainstream consensus view that a relatively small fiscal stimulus ($1 trn) is likely, but not arriving until the new congress is seated. With many programs ending at years-end, the heightened uncertainty (not to mention decrease in disposable income) is sure to constrain consumer spending. Torsten Slok (Apollo) notes:The ongoing rise in the number of covid cases is likely to have a negative impact on mobility, shopping, and restaurant bookings, even in a situation where the US economy does not enter a second lockdown similar to what we are seeing in Europe. … The bottom line is that the near-term outlook for the global economy is negative because of the ongoing spike in the number of cases, but with the vaccine news we are likely to see growth accelerating going into 2021. In short, it looks like this will end up being a W-shaped recovery. Countering the depressing effects of the pandemic is (for now) optimism regarding the development of an effective vaccine, although widespread distribution is not expected until something near mid-2021. That optimism should help sustain consumer spending by households and business fixed investment by firms, that are not liquidity constrained.

GDP and Employment drag from State and Local Governments -A key policy issue for 2021 will be how much disaster relief the Federal government will provide to state and local governments. If we look back at the Great Recession, most of the damage was done to the States after the recession. This is because state and local governments are required to run a balanced budget (or something close), and the state governments started cutting after the recession. Here is a graph showing the contribution to percent change in GDP for residential investment and state and local governments since 2005.The red bars are the contribution to the percent change in real GDP from state and local governments. Although state and local governments were a drag on GDP in Q2 and Q3 in 2020, the worst may happen in 2021 as state and local governments work to balance their budgets.This next graph shows total state and government payroll employment since January 2005. Note that graph doesn’t start at zero to better show the change in employment. Following the Great Recession, most of the state and local government layoffs were after the recession. This was a drag on overall employment for a few years. In 2020, there was a sharp decline in state and local government employment due to the pandemic (mostly in education employment). Without Federal disaster relief, I expect state and local governments will have further layoffs in 2021.

Monthly U.S. Budget Gap More Than Doubled in October – WSJ – The federal government ran a $284 billion budget deficit in the first month of the fiscal year, more than double the monthly shortfall a year ago, the Treasury Department said Thursday. The U.S. budget gap rose 111% in October, due to higher federal spending last month on health-care and safety-net programs, and lower federal tax collection, according to monthly Treasury data. Government outlays rose 37% to $522 billion, while revenue declined 3.2% to $238 billion. Over the 12 months ending in October, the U.S. continued to run a deficit about three times as large as it was over the previous year as it continues to combat the coronavirus pandemic. The 12-month budget gap totaled $3.3 trillion last month, about 15.5% of gross domestic product. Federal deficits have climbed this year as Congress enacted emergency measures, including stimulus payments and loans to small businesses, to cushion the U.S. economy from the effects of the pandemic. Automatic spending on health care, food assistance and jobless benefits have also pushed up outlays, while tax revenues have declined amid widespread layoffs and weaker consumer demand. Spending by the Department of Health and Human Services rose 50% last month, including a 76% increase in Medicare spending and 20% higher spending on Medicaid. Spending on Social Security also rose 9%, military spending increased 12% and Veterans Affairs department spending climbed 70%. Treasury outlays declined 7%, due in part to lower costs on the federal debt, which totaled $21 trillion at the end of the month. On the revenue side, individual withholding declined 7% last month, corporate income taxes increased roughly 28% and customs duties from tariffs on imported goods declined 16%. The widening budget gap is at the center of debates in Washington over how much more government support lawmakers should provide the economy. Democrats have called for another broad economic aid package, arguing higher deficits are worth it to help bolster the economic recovery. Republicans have pointed to rising red ink as a reason to keep deficits in check and called for a smaller, more targeted relief bill.

US Starts Off Fiscal 2021 With Largest October Budget Deficit On Record – One month after the Treasury announced that the US ended fiscal 2020 with a staggering, record $3.1 trillion budget deficit, more than triple the prior year’s $954 billion, as a result outlays of $6.552 trillion, almost double the receipts of $3.420 trillion, moments ago we learned that the US started off fiscal 2021 in style, and in the month of October the budget deficit was a whopping $284 billion, $10 billion more than the expected $274.5 billion, and more than double last year’s October deficit of $134.5 billion. This was also the biggest October deficit in history.Specifically according to the Treasury, in August, government outlays were $521.8 billion, up $24 billion from the $497.8 billion spent in September, and a whopping 37% more than the $380 billion the US spent last October… … while receipts shrank from the $373.2 billion received in September to $237.7 billion, and down 3.2% from the $245.5 billion received last October (the question of why anyone still pays taxes in a time of helicopter money, when the Fed simply purchases whatever debt the Treasury issues, remains). The chart below shows the October and YTD 2020 breakdown between various receipts and outlays. It reveals that the bulk of the total $238BN in receipts came from Individual Income Taxes ($109BN) and from Social Security and Retirement payments ($96BN), while the biggest spending categories were Medicare ($96BN), Social Security ($93BN), National Defense ($80BN), Income Security ($73BN) and Health ($63BN). Net interest on public debt was “only” $32 billion, but this number can only grow. Finally putting the October number in context, the October deficit of $284.1 billion was not only more than double the deficit recorded in any year in the past decade, but was the highest October deficit on record, in what is an ominous confirmation that the US debt, already over $27.1 trillion will rise above $30 trillion within the next 12 or so months.

Many Millions could lose unemployment benefits at the End of 2020 -In addition to regular weekly unemployment claims, there are two COVID related programs that end on December 26th.The first is the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) Program. This is a special program that provides up to 39 weeks of benefits for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. PUA is not payable for any week of unemployment ending after December 31, 2020. Accordingly, in states where the week of unemployment ends on a Saturday, the last week that PUA may be paid is the week ending December 26, 2020. For states where the week of unemployment ends on a Sunday, the last week that PUA is payable is the week ending December 27, 2020. As of October 24th – the most recent report – there were 9,433,127 receiving PUA benefits (there are questions about these numbers).The second is the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) Program. This program “provides up to 13 additional weeks of benefits to individuals who have exhausted their regular unemployment compensation (UC) entitlement”. Just like the PUA, this program ends on December 26th. There are currently 4,143,389 people receiving these extended benefits, and this has been increasing sharply. On October 1st, about 1.8 million people were receiving benefits from the PEUC, so this has most than doubled over the last month as people exhaust their regular benefits. This number will probably continued to increase over the next month. Note that if people get laid off again, as COVID surges, many more people could exhaust their regular benefits.So there is a significant fiscal cliff looming at the end of December.Meanwhile, it is looking less likely that another disaster relief package will be passed before the end of the year. Goldman Sachs noted today: We continue to expect Congress to approve additional fiscal support in the range of $1 trillion, but political and vaccine-related developments make this more likely to come in early 2021 than in the lame-duck session of Congress A surging pandemic and no disaster relief will make for a very hard winter. Hopefully some sort of relief will be passed in the lame-duck session.

Mary Trump says her uncle, President Trump, will spend the transition period ‘breaking stuff’ with ‘vengeance’ – Mary Trump, the niece of President Donald Trump, has continued her attacks on her uncle, warning that he is likely to spend the transition period “breaking stuff” with “vengeance” after losing the election to President-elect Joe Biden.Writing for The Observer in an article published on Sunday, Mary Trump said that while Trump may not concede to the election, the period that follows will be worse.”This is what Donald’s going to do: he’s not going to concede, although who cares. What’s worse is he’s not going to engage in the normal activities that guarantee a peaceful transition,” she wrote in the article. “All he’s got now is breaking stuff, and he’s going to do that with a vengeance. I’ve always known how cruel he can be,” Mary Trump added. The president’s niece wrote that she’s worried that he will “go as far” as delegitimizing the new administration, passing pardons that “will demoralize us,” and signing a “flurry of executive orders.” “Remember, he will also still be in charge of the US response to the pandemic. There could be a million Americans dead by then under his watch,” Mary Trump said. Her comments come as Biden won the 2020 presidential election after a knife-edge race in which he flipped the key battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Trump has refused to concede the race and said he will push forward with a flurry of legal challenges, as part of an effort to contest the results. His campaign issued a statement on Friday, writing: “This election is not over.”

Thousands flock to DC for pro-Trump rally — Thousands of people are turning out in Washington, D.C., on Saturday to rally in support of President Trump and to protest the results of the election, one week after President-elect Joe Biden was projected the winner. Supporters gathered in Freedom Plaza near the White House starting early Saturday morning, with a large crowd amassed by noon, when an event organized by Women for America First was set to kick off. The group, led by former Tea Party activist Amy Kremer, had a permit approved Friday for 10,000 people to gather in the plaza. National Park Service officers stationed near the event told The Hill that they were not keeping track of the exact crowd size but that there were no reasons for concern so far. Trump made an early appearance at the event, with his motorcade driving slowly while he waved to supporters through the window. Scores of supporters rushed to get an up-close view as he drove past. The brunt of signs and speakers have focused on Trump’s claims of election fraud, mimicking unfounded arguments about fake ballots and rigged results. Conspiracy theorist Alex Jones addressed the crowd early in the event, urging supporters to stick by Trump as long as it takes to expose the alleged election fraud. “It will be weeks, maybe months, but we will stick with this president, Donald J. Trump,” he said. The event was marketed as a “Million MAGA March,” with White House press secretary and Trump campaign adviser Kayleigh McEnany claiming on Twitter that more than 1 million people were in attendance, though most estimates put the crowd in the thousands. Among what appeared to be several thousand supporters gathered in the plaza by midday Saturday were roughly 100 members of the Proud Boys, a group of self-described “western chauvinists,” who congregated in front of the Willard Hotel until escorting Jones to the stage in the center of the plaza. Supporters were spotted around the downtown area showing off signs, flags and other materials in support of Trump. There was also a smattering of people wearing paraphernalia associated with far-right militia groups such as the “boogaloo bois” and the Three Percenters. A large portion of the group started moving toward the Supreme Court shortly after noon.

Trump appointee slow-walks Biden transition. That could delay the president-elect’s Covid-19 plan. – The head of the General Services Administration has yet to recognize the incoming Biden administration – a delay that could have consequences for the president-elect’s plan to move swiftly on the coronavirus.More than 48 hours after media outlets projected that Joe Bidenhad defeated President Donald Trump to win the White House, GSA chief Emily Murphy had yet to sign the letter of “ascertainment” – a previously mostly noncontroversial process since the passage of the Presidential Transition Act of 1963. Signing the paperwork when a new president is elected triggers the release of millions of dollars in transition funding and allows an incoming administration access to current government officials.Murphy was appointed to the job by Trump in 2017.With the ascertainment delayed, the Biden transition team has been prevented from meeting with officials heading Operation Warp Speed and other Trump administration coronavirus efforts.”America’s national security and economic interests depend on the federal government signaling clearly and swiftly that the United States government will respect the will of the American people and engage in a smooth and peaceful transfer of power,” a Biden-Harris transition spokesperson said Monday in a statement.The Biden transition official said Murphy’s hold-up could also affect the Biden team’s access to classified information for incoming national security officials; access to secure locations for private discussions about personnel, budget and policy issues; and access to the $6.3 million of congressionally appropriated funds designated for transition activities, office space and equipment.Asked later Monday whether Biden’s team might take legal action to force the GSA to recognize the transition, a Biden transition official said: “Legal action is certainly a possibility. But there are other options, as well, that we are considering.”Chris Lu, who led President Barack Obama’s transition in 2008, said: “Close cooperation between the outgoing and incoming administrations is always important, but it’s especially critical when the country is facing a public health crisis and an economic recession. “It’s time for Donald Trump to put the national interest above his political interest,” he added.

Biden task force member predicts US could soon hit 200,000 daily coronavirus cases -Less than one week after the U.S. hit another grim milestone in the COVID-19 pandemic – where the country recorded over 100,000 new daily cases – experts warn that things stand to get worse. Speaking to CNN Tuesday, Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and a member of President-elect Joe Biden’s Transition COVID-19 Advisory Board, made a grim prediction.”We are watching cases increase substantially in this country far beyond, I think, what most people ever thought could happen,” he said, “It will not surprise me if in the next weeks we see over 200,000 new cases a day.” State data indicates that as a nation, the U.S. has seen a 64 percent increase in new reported cases over the past two weeks.This contributed to the approximate 10.1 million confirmed cases so far seen over the course of the entire pandemic in the U.S. alone. Many states leading the U.S. in new cases, such as North and South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, Alaska, West Virginia, New Mexico, and others are also seeing rapid surges inhospitalizations as well. In addition to this bleak indication, data suggests at least an 18 percent increase in deaths associated with infections. Sources like The COVID Tracking Project states that approximately 59,000 Americans are hospitalized with the virus. While infections are surging across multiple states, two drug companies have made strides in the race to a vaccine. On Monday, Pfizer announced promising data coming out of clinical trials, and Novavax stated that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) put its vaccine candidate on a fast-track road to approval.

Quick Comments on the Biden-Harris Covid Plan: Not Much Sizzle and No Steak – Yves Smith – Lambert and I both recognize the need to provide a serious treatment of the so-called Biden-Harris Covid plan. However, the new, improved transition version of the scheme is so threadbare compared to the extensive, full bore assault campaign version that the shared elements are few and far between. First, this new plan isn’t the same as the one on the Biden campaign site. The campaign version had no mention of contact tracing, while this iteration does. But if you simply skim the campaign version versus the president-presumptive one, you’ll see tons of program proposals from the campaign have vanished, like emergency paid leave (with reimbursements to employers), income support for gig workers whose pay has declined, rental assistance, and support for small businesses. The campaign plan also had sweeping promises about paying for all Covid treatments, not just testing. For instance, this section, by using the term “balance billing” clearly meant it included hospitalizations and emergency room visits: All copayments, deductibles and any cost-sharing for treatment for COVID-19 for insured. Providers will submit cost-sharing claims to NDMS that document private insurance contractual arrangement for co-payments. To ensure maximum provider participation and minimum billing abuses to consumers, current Medicare law’s “conditions of participation” and system-wide prohibitions against balance billing and surprise medical bills will apply. There’s not a peep about any of this in the new version. The lack of financial support for workers to stay at home because they are sick, quarantined, or just waiting for test results makes it difficult to treat this scheme as serious. And the failure to even ask for the government to cover all Covid treatment costs, not just the kind that can be administered with a needle means a lot of people who have or think they have Covid won’t seek treatment until they are really really ill, increasing the load on hospitals and producing worse outcomes. And the severe downgrading of his Covid plan shows Biden embracing the Obama playbook: meet the Republicans 75% of the way when you start negotiating, with the expectation that the final deal will move even more in their direction. Needless to say, leaving financial and health victims of Covid more or less on their own makes it impossible to implement something like the UK’s four-week national lockdown, which shuttered gyms, pubs, restaurants, and non-essential shopping (which includes non-essential goods at retailers like Tesco). Many parts of the US are at or nearing the point where hospitals are getting strained. Once we pass that level, Covid direct and indirect death rates will spike (more will avoid anything short of absolutely essential medical treatment).

Feud Breaks Out On Wall Street Over Lockdowns: JPM Says “No Benefit’ While BofA Sees Urgent Need – A quick recap on where we stand: the sharp rebound in US daily cases continues, with new infections topping 144,000 yesterday, up from 131,000 the previous day. The 7-day average is 125,000, up from a low of 34,000 two months ago. The week-on-week growth in US cases has re-accelerated to 40%, up from 20% last week. The Midwest continues to be the most affected region with Illinois (at 9,830) and Wisconsin (5,920) reporting the highest 7-day average in new cases among US states alongside Texas (7,960). However, the breadth of the virus spread is widening, with all states having seen new daily cases rise over the past week amid signs that the virus is resurging in US cities after mostly hitting rural areas over previous months. Daily death cases have reached its peak since August, at 1.1k yesterday. So far, the policy response has been limited and local. Yesterday, Ohio strengthened mask rules, threatening to close businesses that don’t follow the rules. Over the past week, numerous state governors warned that new mandatory measures might be required if cases continue rising. Some, including the governors of North Carolina, Iowa and Indiana, have imposed new measures in all or part of their states, often focused on indoor gatherings. In New York, private indoor and outdoor gatherings will now be limited to 10 people, while bars and restaurants must close at 10pm. In short, we are creeping slowly but surely toward what appears to be another nationwide lockdown, especially if Biden is in the White House. As we detailed yesterday in a surprising report out of JPMorgan, the bank found no meaningful curve development differences between countries with and without strong curve intervention.This makes the bank question if existing public health intervention (i.e., lockdown/ stricter social distancing) should remain in place next year, and leads JPM to conclude that “public health policy should consider approaches biased towards economic/pubic mental health over the urge to close the curve in 2021.”To reach its “startling” conclusion, JPMorgan compared countries without lockdown, keeping the economy open under certain levels of social-distancing (Brazil, US, Sweden, Japan, Korea) to countries with strong curve intervention (UK, Germany, Italy, France, China, India) to see any meaningful differential in the curve development.This outcome suggest that COVID-19 follows a similar diffusion and development process of other infectious diseases with certain life cycles. Therefore, JPMorgan would argue that public health policy should consider a bit more biased approach on economic/pubic mental health over the aim to close the infection curve in 2021 as lockdowns could be costly to the economy. JPMorgan’s conclusion: “Keeping public activities open and tracing susceptible people leveraging technology looks to have better risk reward to us.”

Biden Picks Longtime Adviser And Obama Ebola Czar As Chief Of Staff – Joe Biden has chosen his longtime adviser and former Obama admin Ebola ‘Czar’ Ron Klain to reprise his role as Chief of Staff, according to the Associated Press, which – if Biden is elected – means he’ll likely be swamped with pandemic-related challenges amid a divided Congress. “His deep, varied experience and capacity to work with people all across the political spectrum is precisely what I need in a White House chief of staff as we confront this moment of crisis and bring our country together again,” Biden said in a Wednesday night statement.Klain, a Harvard Law graduate and former editor of the Harvard Law Review, previously served as Biden’s Chief of Staff from 2009-2011, as well as former Vice President Al Gore from 1995-1999 after having worked on the Clinton-Gore campaign in 1992. He was a law clerk for Supreme Court Justice Byron White in 1987 and 1988, and served as Chief Counsel to the Senate Judiciary Committee during Clarence Thomas’s Supreme Court nomination.Towards the end of the Clinton presidency and the lead-up to the 2000 election, Al Gore’s campaign chairman Tony Coelho forced Klain out after Gore loyalists felt he was too loyal to the Clintons, only to return to the Gore campaign the next year. He eventually served as General Counsel of Gore’s Recount Committee during the disputed 2000 election.

Ben Carson tests positive for coronavirus – Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Ben Carson has tested positive for coronavirus, a spokesperson and a longtime adviser confirmed on Monday. “Spoke with my brother Dr. Carson earlier and he is doing extraordinarily well. He is so grateful to have access to powerful therapeutics. We also pray for the millions who celebrated over the weekend and may have exposed themselves to COVID19,” tweeted Armstrong Williams, who advised Carson’s presidential campaign. A HUD spokesperson also confirmed the diagnosis. Carson is the latest high-ranking Trump administration official to contract the virus. ABC News, which first reported Carson had tested positive, noted that Carson was experiencing symptoms on Monday morning but was in good spirits. Carson attended a White House gathering on election night last week, where dozens of guests mingled and few wore masks or observed social distancing. Several White House staff members, including chief of staff Mark Meadows, have since tested positive for the virus. President-elect Joe Biden has been declared the winner of the 2020 election, but President Trump has refused to concede. Carson and other administration officials have largely avoided commenting on the election results thus far. Carson, who ran an unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2016, has been one of just a handful of officials to serve in Trump’s Cabinet since the beginning of his term, and he has been the lone Black person in the Cabinet throughout.

Trump associate David Bossie tests positive for coronavirus – David Bossie, who was recently tapped with overseeing the Trump campaign’s legal challenges in the aftermath of Election Day, has tested positive for coronavirus, a person familiar with the matter confirmed Monday. The campaign last week had reportedly tasked Bossie with leading efforts to pursue lawsuits in battleground states where President Trump was trailing President-elect Joe Biden. It’s unclear how his diagnosis will impact that effort, which has largely been scattershot and marked by chaotic press conferences. Bossie served as a deputy campaign manager during Trump’s 2016 campaign and has remained an outside adviser in the four years since. He took on an increased role with the campaign in the closing weeks of the 2020 campaign and traveled with the president on some of his final rally trips. Trump and his allies have alleged widespread voter fraud to claim the election was “stolen” by Democrats, but there is no evidence to support their claim. The lawsuits they have filed thus far have either been dismissed, would not change the result in the states where they are challenging the outcome or deal with process and not actual vote counts. Bossie is the latest Trump associate to contract the virus after Election Day. Others include White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson and several other lower-level White House staff members. Meadows and Carson were among those at last Tuesday’s election night party at the White House, where dozens of guests mingled without masks. It was not immediately clear if Bossie was in attendance.

Trump’s Election Night Party Linked to New COVID Cases – It appears another coronavirus outbreak is ballooning within the White House: First came Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, whose COVID diagnosis was announced on Friday, November 6. Ben Carson, secretary for Housing and Urban Development, was next up on Monday, followed by Trump campaign adviser David Bossie. According to the Associated Press, these cases trace back to Donald Trump’s Election Night viewing party, an indoor event featuring “few masks and no social distancing.” Meaning: It looks like the administration may have just held its second superspreader event in as many months. More than a week after the fact, the positive test results keep rolling in.”Several hundred” people reportedly attended the party on November 3 in the White House East Room, where Meadows reportedly circulated – maskless, of course. According to Intelligencer’s Olivia Nuzzi, his contacts that night found out about their exposure not from the White House, but from a late-night Bloomberg report that broke the news on November 6. Apparently Meadows took pains to keep his test results secret, a move one of Nuzzi’s sources correctly labeled “fucked up.” In fact, Meadows received his diagnosis on November 4, just after the party; the day before, he reportedly visited campaign headquarters, and spent time in the White House residence with Trump’s adult children and their spouses. Now, infections are fanning out across his circle: According to Bloomberg, at least five other people have tested positive, including top Meadows aide, Cassidy Hutchinson; Charlton Boyd, one of Jared Kushner’s aides; and campaign aide Nick Trainer. Bloomberg could not confirm whether or not Meadows has shown symptoms, but Carson apparently has. HUD deputy chief of staff Coalter Baker told Politico that Carson visited Walter Reed Army Medical Center – where Trump was recently hospitalized during his own bout of COVID – and enjoyed “access to effective therapeutics which aid and markedly speed his recovery.” Bossie, who actually tested positive on Sunday but didn’t immediately make a public statement, did not return Politico’s request for comment.Apparently, though, Bossie isn’t the only one to have quietly received test results and fail to air them. The New York Times reported on Wednesday that three more people inside the White House have now been confirmed as COVID-positive. Political director Brian Jack was reportedly diagnosed over the weekend, having attended Trump’s viewing party days before.According to NBC, Healy Baumgardner, who used to be a White House aide, now works in private equity. She reportedly attended the party at Rudy Giuliani’s invitation and tested positive on November 11.

There’s a New COVID Outbreak in the Trump White House -Weeks after President Trump was hospitalized with COVID-19, there’s a new cluster of cases tied to his administration. At least some of the current outbreak may be connected to the Trump campaign’s Election Night watch party, a gathering of more than 100 people where safety precautions like social distancing and mask wearing were few and far between. Since last Tuesday, several have tested positive – although, as during the previous outbreak, the White House has refused to provide updates of affected staff. Here is a running tally of those known to have contracted the virus in recent days.

• Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s pugilistic ex-campaign manager said he had tested for the virus on Thursday. He attended the White House election party, but thinks he contracted the virus in Philadelphia, where he has spent the last few days amplifying the president’s baseless voter-fraud theories.
• RNC Chief of Staff Richard Walters tested positive on Thursday morning. The [http://following%20cdc%20guidelines%20and%20notifying%20staff%20who%20came%20into%20contact%20with%20him/]RNC said he had not attended the White House election party, and that he is “following CDC guidelines and notifying staff who came into contact with him.”
• Former campaign aide Healy Baumgardner told NBC she tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday. Baumgardner, who now works in private equity, attended the Election Night party as a guest of Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s personal lawyer.
• White House political director Brian Jack reportedly tested positive for the coronavirus over the weekend. The diagnosis came after Jack attended Trump’s Election Night event.
• At least two unnamed West Wing aides have reportedly tested positive, though it was not immediately clear whether they attended the Election Night party.
• Mark Meadows, the president’s chief of staff, reportedly tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday, a diagnosis he and the White House kept a secret until it wasdisclosed by Bloomberg late Friday. Despite spending Election Night in the White House residence with Trump’s family and senior staffers and in the East Room, where both the watch party and Trump’s 2:30 a.m. address took place, the chief of staff opted to inform only a small number of advisers of his diagnosis after Election Day, and they were told to keep quiet.
• In the absence of a public statement about Meadows’s test, Intelligencer’s Olivia Nuzzi reported that other administration staffers who had direct contact with Meadows found out about their possible exposure when the media reported it.
• Ben Carson, The secretary for Housing and Urban Development tested positive for COVID-19 on Monday and was “briefly” treated at Walter Reed Army Medical Center after experiencing symptoms, a HUD official told Politico.
• The diagnosis comes days after Carson attended Trump’s Election Night watch party. He told the Washington Post that he felt “terrific” after suffering a fever and chills and said he had contracted the virus “probably somewhere, out there in the universe,” listing the White House party as one possibility for where he’d caught it.
• David Bossie, Trump’s 2016 deputy campaign manager and outside adviser, who has been spearheading the president’s postelection legal strategy, reportedly tested positive on Sunday.

Over 130 Secret Service officers off sick or quarantining following Donald Trump’s rallies – More than 130 Secret Service officers have been infected with coronavirus or quarantining after travelling with President Donald Trump on his campaign trips. The stricken officers account for 10 per cent of the president’s core security team and their absence was described by one supervisor as “very problematic”. Mr Trump held a flurry of rallies during the week leading up to the November 3 election. On November 2, he went on a total of five, including in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, and two stops in Wisconsin. The agency is also examining whether any of the infections instead trace back to the White House, where many Secret Service officers report for duty each day. It coincided with a growing number of prominent Trump campaign staffers and White House officials falling ill in the wake of campaign events, where many attendees did not wear masks. Among those who are infected are Mark Meadows, White House Chief of Staff, and outside political advisers Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie. It is the second outbreak at the White House in recent weeks. The last one was traced back to a “superspreader” event celebrating the nomination of Supreme Court judge Amy Coney Barret. Mr Trump tested positive six days later, along with aide Hope Hicks, and Bill Stepien, his campaign manager.

Trump Says COVID Vaccine Won’t Be Delivered To New York –On Friday, President Donald Trump said that the US government would not deliver a coronavirus vaccine to New York when it is available, because the state’s governor previously commented that he had concerns that the Trump administration would rush the vaccine for political gain.During a press conference from the White House Rose Garden on Friday, the president said that New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo “will have to let us know when he’s ready for it because otherwise, we can’t be delivering it to a state that won’t be giving it to its people immediately.””He doesn’t trust where the vaccine is coming from. These are coming from the greatest companies anywhere in the world, greatest labs in the world, but he doesn’t trust the fact that it’s this White House, this administration, so we won’t be delivering it to New York until we have authorization to do so and that pains me to say that,” Trump said.Sullen Trump lashes out at New York, says whole country will get vaccine except New York, until Governor asks nicely. pic.twitter.com/hadL97HrqE – Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) November 13, 2020Rich Azzopardi, a senior advisor to Cuomo, later posted a response on Twitter, saying that the governor “is fighting to ensure the communities hit hardest by COVID get the vaccine.” Trump “has failed with his pandemic response, lied to Americans about how bad it was when he knew otherwise & was fired by voters for his incompetence,” Azzopardi said.

Alaska congressman who ridiculed coronavirus now says he has COVID-19 (Reuters) – The Alaska congressman who once ridiculed the seriousness of the novel coronavirus, calling it the “beer virus,” said on Thursday he is now infected with it. The announcement by Representative Don Young comes as the state’s governor on Thursday warned that health-care and public-safety systems were at risk of being overwhelmed by the rapid spread of the virus across Alaska. Young, the 87-year-old Republican who is Alaska’s sole U.S. House of Representatives member, made the announcement on Twitter. “I have tested positive for COVID-19. I am feeling strong, following proper protocols, working from home in Alaska, and ask for privacy at this time,” he said on the Twitter post. Young, who was just re-elected to his 25th term and is the longest-serving member of Congress, said in March that COVID-19 concerns were “created primarily by hysteria.” “I call it the beer virus. How do you like that?” he said in a March speech at a senior center in Palmer, Alaska, in a mocking reference to Corona beer. “Anyway, it attacks us senior citizens. I’m one of you. I still say we have to as a nation, as a state, to go forth with the everyday activities.”

Nevada Gov. Sisolak tests positive for COVID-19 – Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) announced Friday that he tested positive for the coronavirus, the latest governor to contract the highly-infectious virus. Sisolak said he is currently not experiencing any symptoms and that the virus was detected as part of a routine testing program, though he had been feeling fatigued earlier this week. He last tested negative on Feb. 6. The Nevada governor is isolating at the governor’s mansion, and all of his public events have been canceled. He’s also been in touch with contact tracers since he was diagnosed. Sisolak was last in his offices in Carson City on Thursday, and he did not clarify where he could have gotten infected. Any staff member who is considered to be a close contact to Sisolak through the tracing process will remain in quarantine. “It was important to me to notify Nevadans as soon as possible of my positive COVID-19 test results,” Sisolak said in a statement. “I want to thank the health officials who assisted me through this process. … With my case, I want to underscore the importance of Nevadans to stay at home as much as they possibly can at this time.”

Democrats blast Minnesota GOP legislators for alerting only Republicans to virus cases – Minnesota Senate Democrats blasted the state’s GOP legislators for allegedly failing to inform opposing party members of COVID-19 infections among some Republican staff. One day after reports emerged that state Sen. Dave Senjem (R) tested positive for COVID-19 on Nov. 5, Republican senators and staffers were informed in a Tuesday memo that some party members tested positive for the virus, the Star Tribune reported. Members of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) were reportedly not informed about the outbreak among some GOP legislators. “It is outrageous and completely unacceptable that Senate DFLers were not notified of the recent COVID-19 outbreak among Senate Republicans prior to Thursday’s floor session,” Senate Minority Leader Susan Kent (DFL) said in a statement. Kent called the “lack of transparency” a “disregard for the health and safety of others” to other staff and members of Congress. Senate Republican Chief of Staff Craig Sondag sent a memo to Republicans and staffers instructing them to work from home, including on Thursday’s slated special session. Still, the memo reportedly was not initially given to Democrats across the aisle. The Hill contacted Sondag for comment but did not immediately receive a response. Senate spokeswoman Rachel Aplikowski confirmed the authenticity of the memo to Minnesota Public Radio (MPR).

Business groups breathe sigh of relief over prospect of divided government – Lobbying firms are telling their clients that two more years of divided government is the best-case scenario and most likely outcome of the 2020 elections. Business groups had been bracing for a blue sweep that carried with it the risk of progressive policies and ramped-up regulations. Instead, the prospect of a split Congress and the gridlock that comes with it is being welcomed by many clients. “Typically, my clients are happier when there’s a divided government. It’s a little bit more stable and they can plan better for the long-term, despite things taking longer to cross the finish line,” said Amy Smith, a policy adviser at Arnold & Porter. Loren Monroe, a principal at BGR, said companies often prefer the certainty provided by a slower legislative process, particularly when there are familiar faces in leadership posts. “More than anything, the business community craves predictability, so there is some relief when anticipating a new president who has a governing track record, a known Senate leadership on both sides of the aisle, and a House leadership that they’ve worked with over the last couple of years,” Monroe said. President Trump enjoyed unified government during the first half of his term, but without a slew of major legislative victories to accompany it beyond tax cuts and criminal justice reform. The subsequent two years have often been defined by gridlock on issues like COVID-19 relief and police reform. But lobbyists are hopeful things will work differently under President-elect Joe Biden, who spent decades in the Senate and facilitated deals with congressional Republicans when he was vice president. Trade groups are optimistic that a Biden presidency, combined with a Republican-controlled Senate and Democrat-led House could open the door for moderate pro-business policies. One Republican lobbyist called divided government “very good” for business. “It means the most dramatic and radical permutations of a Democratic sweep are off the table. On a process basis, you’re not going to move towards eliminating the filibuster, adding votes to the Supreme Court, or adding new states to the union to solidify and make permanent the Democrat majorities in Congress,” the GOP lobbyist said.

NCUA’s Hood to Senate panel- Extend CARES Act provisions for credit unions – Rodney Hood, chairman of the National Credit Union Administration, on Tuesday called on lawmakers to extend changes to the agency’s Central Liquidity Facility beyond year-end in order to ensure credit unions continue to have ample liquidity to serve members during the pandemic. Hood’s remarks came during financial regulators’ remote testimony before members of the Senate Banking Committee. He was joined by Randal Quarles, vice chairman of supervision at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors; Jelena McWilliams, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.; and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks. Many in the credit union industry have called for Congress to extend changes to the CLF made as part of the CARES Act earlier this year or make them permanent. About 80% of the industry now has access to additional liquidity through the CLF, Hood said. In prepared remarks, he called the program’s growth and expanded borrowing authority “a testament to our nation’s credit unions coming together in a time of crisis to strengthen the national system of cooperative credit.” However those changes will sunset on Dec. 31 without additional legislative action. “I respectfully request that these changes be extended for the pandemic’s duration so the credit union system and NCUA can respond effectively should the need for emergency liquidity arise,” Hood told the Senate panel. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., asked whether credit unions and other lenders were at risk of failure due to commercial customers struggling to pay back loans in a timely fashion. Hood downplayed those concerns and reiterated the industry’s strong capital position, but said a CLF extension could mitigate some risks. “We do believe we have the tools to keep the credit union system safe and sound,” Hood said. “If there’s one ask I would have, it would be working with you and your committee to extend the CLF … While we have solid liquidity now [it] would be nice to know we have that extension beyond Dec. 31 of this year.” Later in the hearing, however, Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., said that with the economy recovering faster than expected, some programs that helped get the nation back on track may be able to be terminated.

GOP senators push regulatory relief for PPP banks – Republican senators pressed regulators Tuesday to ensure that banks’ participation in federal coronavirus relief programs don’t create new regulatory burdens. The concerns, which drew a sympathetic response from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Randal Quarles and acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks, involve smaller banks that have swollen balance sheets as a result of their participation in the Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program. “It is important that banks and credit unions are not inadvertently disincentivized from continuing to play a key role in the economic recovery or participate in future efforts,” Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, said during a hearing. “I urge each of you to continue using your discretion to alleviate the regulatory burdens associated with a variety of asset-based regulatory thresholds on those banks and credit unions temporarily experiencing growth from participation in recovery-oriented programs.” In addition to representantives from the Fed and the OCC, the hearing featured testimony by Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Jelena McWilliams and National Credit Union Administration Chairman Rodney Hood. Community bankers have been pressing Congress and regulators to exclude PPP loans from their asset-size calculations out of concern that the loans are growing their balance sheets and triggering new exposure to certain regulations. Numerous banks that participated in the PPP have crossed the $10 billion asset threshold, which would typically result in supervision by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, pricing limits on debit interchange fees and compliance with the Volcker Rule’s ban on proprietary trading, among other regulatory requirements. “[Banks] really stepped up and responded in this crisis by providing credit that swelled their balance sheets and that has triggered, for those especially who have crossed the $10 billion threshold, a number of costly regulatory provisions, one of the most problematic of which is the government-mandated price fixings of the interchange fees,” said Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa. “I would just urge you to consider ways in which you might ensure that we don’t punish banks that really did exactly what their communities needed when they needed it.”

Why PPP fraud hit fintechs harder than banks At first blush, the data on fraud for the Paycheck Protection Program looks bad for fintechs. According to the Project on Government Oversight, an independent watchdog, the Justice Department has brought charges against at least 82 individuals in 56 cases for Paycheck Protection Program. Lenders approved 97 loans related to these fraud cases, and nearly half of those were made by fintechs and banks working closely with fintech companies. So does this mean fintechs were easier targets than banks? In some ways, perhaps. Banks often have historical data on borrowers that fintechs don’t, so it’s reasonable to believe that fraudsters would see fintechs as easier marks. Confirming a borrower’s identity can also be more challenging for fintechs. Then again, the data could suggest that fintechs are better at catching and reporting fraud than banks are and that banks, at least at the outset of the PPP rollout, prioritized lending to existing customers. Here are some reasons why fraud appeared to be more prevalent at fintechs and what can be done to curtail online fraud in the future. At the heart of the problem of online loan fraud, in the PPP program and anywhere else, is the challenge of proving digital identities. This was particularly difficult for fintechs. The criminal rings that used fake identities to apply for loans were automatically denied by the large banks that focused on their existing customers. They turned to fintechs that were approving loans on their digital platforms in as little as an hour. Banks may be better at performing due diligence. “Banks have been doing this since the beginning of time,” said David O’Connell, senior analyst at Aite Group. “Online lenders have been doing cash flow analysis since 2011. There’s a shortage of institutional historical knowledge that makes them vulnerable.” Bill Phelan, senior vice president of PayNet, an Equifax company, said it’s critical for lenders to cross-reference loan application data points against business records, public records and financial records. “If you can cross-reference those three, it becomes very hard to game the system and commit fraud,” he said. But banks may be slower in spotting fraud once it occurs. In research Aite Group conducted recently on small-business loan fraud, bankers admitted they’re not good at detecting fraud.Aite asked, “When you think about all of the losses you’ve likely suffered as a result of small- and medium-size business fraud, what percentage are accurately identified as fraud losses?” The average answer from bank executive respondents was 48%.”That means they’re missing 52%,” O’Connell observed. “It could be that fintechs have better data and better reporting. And they’re more likely to flag something as fraud rather than a credit loss.” When Aite asked bankers what percentage of small- and medium-size business fraud losses they not only identified, but accurately accounted for as fraud losses rather than credit losses, the answer was 37%. “So we’re looking at 63% that don’t get accounted for,” O’Connell said. “It could be that the banks’ blind spot is pretty big.” Fintechs, on the other hand, say that every time there’s an instance of confirmed or suspected fraud, they identify and submit it to the Small Business Administration’s Office of the Inspector General very quickly.

Nonbank sector needs reform to combat risk to financial stability- Fed – Temporary policy responses from Congress and the Federal Reserve have mitigated financial stability risks resulting from the pandemic, but permanent fixes may be needed in some areas to counter potential long-term shocks, the Fed said Monday. In its semiannual Financial Stability Report, the Fed said that short-term funding markets have stabilized considerably since March when the reality of the pandemic first set in for investors. But that stability has much to do with the central bank’s emergency lending facilities, most of which are set to sunset at the end of this year, the report said. “Emergency measures undertaken by the Federal Reserve with the support of the Treasury have temporarily lowered the risk of adverse events associated with vulnerabilities in the nonbank sector in the near term, but remaining vulnerabilities call for structural fixes in the longer term,” the Fed’s report said. The Fed and the Treasury Department have not yet said if they plan to extend their loan facilities created under section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act past Dec. 31. Fed Gov. Lael Brainard, who chairs the central bank’s committee on financial stability, agreed in a statement that the coronavirus pandemic has made clearer the need for more permanent reforms, including in the “critically important” Treasury market, she said. “The resurgence of fragility and funding stress in the same nonbank financial sectors in the COVID-19 crisis and the Global Financial Crisis highlights the importance of a renewed commitment to financial reform,” Brainard said in a statement. The leverage at nonbanks, including hedge funds and life insurance companies, remains high and could lead to more acute problems in the event of either funding shortages or sharp drops in asset prices, the Fed added. Money market funds and mutual funds are particularly vulnerable to funding strains. “While government support has lowered the risk of adverse events associated with vulnerabilities in the nonbank sector, this sector would be vulnerable to funding risk should the government support be withdrawn,” the Fed said. However, unlike at nonbanks, bank funding risk remains low, the Fed’s report said, given that financial institutions have benefited from a surge in deposits in 2020 and that banks are holding on to large amounts of high-quality liquid assets. Additionally, in the third quarter, the common equity Tier 1 capital at banks slightly rose above pre-pandemic levels, the Fed said, based on preliminary earnings data, giving the Fed greater confidence about the resilience of U.S. banks. But the Fed warned that loan delinquencies could worsen as the pandemic continues. “As many households continue to struggle, loan defaults may rise, leading to material losses,” the Fed said. “So far, strains in the business and household sectors have been mitigated by significant government lending and relief programs and by low interest rates. That said, some households and businesses have been substantially more affected to date than others, suggesting that the sources of vulnerability in these sectors are unevenly distributed.”

Senator Sherrod Brown Calls for Breaking Up the Wall Street Banks; Elizabeth Warren Tells Fed: “I Don’t Believe You’re Doing Your Job” – Pam Martens The U.S. Senate Banking Committee held a virtual hearing yesterday that was benignly titled “Oversight of Financial Regulators.” It would be an understatement to say that there was nothing benign about the hearing. Fireworks went off throughout the hearing as Democratic Senators let it be known that they expected the crony relationship between the Fed and the Wall Street banks to be challenged by the incoming Biden administration. Senator Sherrod Brown set the tone for the hearing with his opening remarks, telling the panel of Trump era federal banking regulators the following: “We can get small businesses back on their feet. We can lift up the Black and brown communities that have been hit the hardest by this pandemic. We can keep people in their homes, make those homes more affordable, and bring down people’s energy bills. We can lead the world in the fight against climate change and seize every opportunity to create good-paying jobs. We can free people from the stress of debt collectors and the downward spiral of payday lenders.”And we can reorient our economy from wealth to work. To do all of that, we have to take on Wall Street power.Later in his remarks, Brown said this: “We have to break up the biggest banks, and give that power to everyone else who has been denied a voice in our economy … “When work has dignity, we have a strong, growing middle class, and everyone – everyone – can reach it. Making that vision possible is the job of the Banking and Housing Committee. When it came time to question the various federal regulators, Brown told the group that they could have done so much to improve the lives of average Americans but had, instead, “finalized the Wall Street wish list.” Brown then critiqued the failings of each of the regulators, giving the harshest tongue-lashing to Brian Brooks, the Acting Comptroller of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). Brown told Brooks the following: “One West, the bank that you and [Treasury] Secretary Mnuchin and Joseph Otting [former head of the OCC in the Trump administration] worked at, was known as a foreclosure machine. It makes no sense that the outgoing President handed the wheels of the economy to so many people who had a hand in crashing it in 2008. “Even though you’re running the OCC without the approval of the Senate, you’ve made sweeping changes to regulation to benefit the same corporations you used to lobby for. It’s exactly this kind of self-dealing that’s eroded so many Americans’ trust in their government and the economy. And last week, 80 million American voters rejected that thinking.” [ … ] Clearly, by the time it was Senator Elizabeth Warren’s turn to question the panel of witnesses, she was steamed up over the stonewalling. Warren told Quarles that banks are now reporting that they anticipate higher loan default rates. Warren chastised Quarles for “allowing the big banks to continue to shovel billions of dollars out the door in dividends. Money that could be used to survive an historic downturn. You could stop this outflow of money right now.”

Loss provisions, low interest rates could threaten profits, OCC says – Banks are grappling with a host of looming risks as the economy navigates the continuing pandemic, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said Monday. An OCC report noted credit, strategic, operational and compliance risks to the industry, which has largely avoided a direct hit from COVID-19 and instead aided businesses affected by the virus. The national bank regulator reported that while the overall health of the banking sector remains stable, a murky credit outlook will compound banks’ profit struggles amid a near-zero interest rate environment. “Banks remain in strong financial condition,” the OCC wrote in its most recent Semiannual Risk Perspective, “but profitability is stressed due to low interest rates and increasing levels of provisions for problem loans.” The OCC reported that credit risk is increasing in commercial, retail and mortgage lending even as actual losses “have yet to fully materialize across many segments of the banking industry.” The combination of consumer relief programs and “unprecedented stimulus efforts” under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act “is likely masking potential losses within the financial services industry,” the OCC said. In commercial lending, the OCC highlighted the struggles of specific industries, such as in commercial real estate, oil and gas, and in the hospitality sector. But the OCC also said “challenges are present in most sectors.” The OCC also warned that the low interest rate environment will continue to weigh heavily on bank profitability. With net interest margins at their lowest level in 30 years and a 350% year-over-year increase in loan-loss provisions, net income among national banks in the first six months of the year dropped by more than 77% compared to a year earlier. The OCC sees continued operational and compliance risks due to the prolonged reliance on telework among bankers and their customers. Of particular concern is cybersecurity. “The financial sector continues to see an increase in ransomware attacks with cyber actors using phishing emails as the main attack vector,” the OCC wrote.

Banks tighten standards on consumer, commercial loans – With the pandemic continuing to crimp the U.S. economy, banks tightened their underwriting standards on consumer and commercial loans during the third quarter, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest survey on bank lending practices. Banks that participated in the Fed’s quarterly senior loan officer survey raised the bar for approving commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, residential mortgages, credit card loans and car loans. The survey findings, released Monday, marked the continuation of a trend that began during the first quarter of 2020, when many banks tightened their lending standards in response to worsening economic conditions. During the third quarter, banks cited the relatively poor economic outlook, various industry-specific problems and a reduced risk tolerance in explaining their decisions to further tighten loan standards since the end of the second quarter. Some banks also pointed to less aggressive competition from other lenders or a deterioration in their own current or expected capital position. For credit cards and auto loans, the tighter standards were often manifested in higher minimum credit score requirements. In commercial lending, banks often raised their collateralization requirements, the premiums they charged on riskier loans and their use of interest rate floors. The survey’s findings on loan demand suggest that U.S. businesses and consumers were on divergent paths at the end of the third quarter, with consumers having benefited from government stimulus payments, even as many businesses continued to struggle. Demand for credit card loans, auto loans and most categories of residential real estate loans rose in the third quarter. But borrower demand was weaker for commercial and industrial loans, as well as for various kinds of commercial real estate credit, including construction loans and multifamily housing loans. At the end of the third quarter, the Fed asked participating banks a series of special questions about their use of forbearance, which has frequently been used to prevent defaults during the pandemic. The results varied substantially by loan category. About 14% of banks that participated in the survey said that more than 5% of their construction loans were in forbearance. But approximately half of all participating banks said the same about loans secured by income-producing commercial real estate. For banks that offered forbearance on commercial real estate loans, that leniency most frequently took the form of either a payment deferral or covenant relief. On the consumer side, nearly four out of 10 banks that participated in the survey said that more than 5% of their residential real estate loans were in forbearance. For credit card loans, about 9% said the same. Fifteen percent of banks that participated in the survey said that more than 5% of their auto loans were in forbearance.

Push to keep tabs on employees spurs union of monitoring firms — Two companies that assist employees in monitoring workplace communications for signs of risky behavior are joining forces. Smarsh, which allows clients to archive communications between employees, is acquiring Digital Reasoning, the two companies said Tuesday. The latter applies artificial intelligence to monitoring communications for evidence of workplace harassment, compliance issues and other red flags. The purchase price was not disclosed. The merger is a reflection of the fact that employers are increasingly seeking surveillance options to monitor their many employees who are working from home. “If you look over the past few years, even pre-COVID, the amount of data generated in the form of electronic communication has been growing exponentially,” said Brian Cramer, Smarsh’s CEO. “You’ve seen Slack, Zoom, Microsoft Teams and mobile platforms growing substantially. That has all created this perfect storm of much more data than previously. Regulations require that financial services firms not only capture and archive that content in a separate immutable repository, but it also requires them to supervise and monitor the communications of active market participants.” Smarsh has about 6,500 customers, many of them banks, including nine out of the top 10 U.S. banks, according to Cramer. They use Smarsh’s technology to monitor and store Zoom, Google Meet and Microsoft Teams meetings, as well as emails, instant messages, phone calls and other communications. Smarsh’s software can follow a conversation between two people as it jumps from text message to email to Microsoft Teams to a phone call. Digital Reasoning also has financial institution customers, who use it for things like finding signs of rate-rigging among traders. The software finds behavior that correlates with keeping secrets, spreading rumors, market manipulation and other forms of suspicious behavior. The company’s investors include Barclays, BNP Paribas, Nasdaq, Macquarie Group and Standard Chartered, which will continue to support the business following this combination. Digital Reasoning has had customers ask for help in monitoring the escalated use of Zoom meetings and instant messages during the past six months. “It is perfect timing to bring these two things together,” said Tim Estes, CEO of Digital Reasoning. “Remote work has led to an immense amount of new volume that is right now, essentially unmonitored. It’s the Wild West, and it’s predictable that that’s going to turn into a whole bunch of issues and scandals in the next year or so after we get past this grace period of all being in shock from it. There’s a limited window for banks to catch up. That’s why Brian and I wanted to bring this together: We know we can deliver this fast. We can deliver in months to a global bank what might take them years to put together as a Frankenstein.” Banks are most interested in these technologies to find regulatory risks and general corporate risks, like possible bullying or harassment, Estes said. Smarsh’s most progressive customers, Cramer said, care about the reputation of their brands and their bank. “They’re tired of being surprised by something that was said or activity shown in communications that reflect poorly on the values of the bank, whether it’s discrimination, harassment or other areas,” Cramer said.

Deutsche Bank Proposes A 5% Work From Home Privilege Tax – At a time when the Fed is already monetizing the entire US budget deficit thanks to helicopter money, sparking conversations about the utility of taxation, and when a Biden administration is set to at least try and roll back most of the Trump tax cuts, the last thing the population wants to hear about is even more taxes.Yet in a “modest proposal” from Deutsche Bank, the bank argues that in a time of pervasive covid shutdowns, “those who can work from home (WFH) receive direct and indirect financial benefits and they should be taxed in order to smooth the transition process for those who have been suddenly displaced.”In other words, the argument goes that working from an office is somehow punitive, and since WFH during the pandemic leads to “many benefits” as a resulting “disconnecting themselves from face-to-face society” a 5% tax for each WFH day “would leave the average person no worse off than if they worked in the office.” The bank calculates that such a tax could raise $49bn per year in the US, euro 20bn in Germany, and Pound Sterling7bn in the UK. “That can fund subsidies for the lowest-paid workers who usually cannot work from home.”In the report written by DB strategist Like Tumpleman, he argues that the popularity of WFH was growing even before the pandemic: “between 2005 and 2018, internet technology fuelled a 173 per cent increase in the number of Americans who regularly worked from home. It is true that the overall proportion of people working from home before the pandemic was still small, at 5.4 per cent based on census data, but the growth was still way ahead of the growth in the overall workforce.”Naturally, the covid shutdowns have turbocharged that growth, and as a result the proportion of Americans who worked from home increased ten-fold to 56% during the pandemic. Many of these people will continue to work remotely for some time. Indeed, two-thirds of organizations say that at least three-quarters of their staff can work from home effectively, according to S&P Global Markets. Meanwhile, a DB survey shows that, after the pandemic has passed, more than half of people who tried out WFH want to continue it permanently for between two and three days a week. This sudden shift to WFH means that, for the first time in history, “a big chunk of people have disconnected themselves from the face-to-face world yet are still leading a full economic life” as if that is somehow a bad thing.

FHA’s capital buoyed by house price appreciation despite higher defaults – A key indicator of health for the Federal Housing Administration’s mutual mortgage insurance fund reached a high not seen since 2007, as strong house price appreciation more than offset economic harm done by the pandemic. The FHA said Friday in its annual actuarial report that the fund’s capital reserve ratio increased to 6.10% in the 2020 fiscal year, up from 4.84% a year earlier. Meanwhile, the fund’s economic net worth increased to $78.95 billion – more than double its value just two years earlier. The FHA is required by law to maintain a buffer of at least 2%. “Thanks to this administration’s focus on prudent capital management, FHA entered the pandemic with a strong capital position, which will help us weather the immediate impact of COVID-19,” FHA Commissioner Dana Wade said on a call with reporters. Generally, the FHA’s mortgage fund owes much of its success in 2020 to strong house price appreciation, which “eclipsed other negative economic developments,” Wade said, and added that the FHA’s modeling showed that a 1% decrease in house price appreciation would equate to a blow of 1.3% to the mortgage insurance fund. Still, the FHA’s portfolio was not completely immune to COVID-19. The agency’s portfolio of seriously delinquent loans grew by $117 billion thanks to provisions in the congressional stimulus package from earlier this year that allowed borrowers to request up to a year of forbearance. The value of seriously delinquent loans as of Sept. 30 was $158 billion, beating out the previous high of $105 billion in 2012. The rate of seriously delinquent credits in the FHA’s portfolio reached 11.59%. However, the FHA said that rate is expected to rise because the agency tends to serve borrowers with lower credit scores and higher amounts of debt. “Given these and other characteristics, the COVID-19 pandemic has hit FHA borrowers disproportionately harder than those served by conventional and private markets,” the agency’s report said.

MBA Survey: “Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.67%” — Note: This is as of November 1st. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.67%The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 16 basis points from 5.83% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 5.67% as of November 1, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 2.8 million homeowners are in forbearance plans. .. “With declines in the share of loans in forbearance across the board, the data this week align well with the positive news from October’s jobs report, which showed a gain of more than 900,000 private sector jobs, and a 1 percentage point decrease in the unemployment rate,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “A recovering job market, coupled with a strong housing market, is providing the support needed for many homeowners to get back on their feet.” , “However, the data continue to show that servicers are still having difficulties reaching borrowers who have reached the six-month point of their forbearance period. Servicers are required to get borrowers’ consent to extend forbearance beyond six months. Homeowners who continue to be impacted by hardships related to the pandemic should contact their servicer.” .. By stage, 22.25% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 75.99% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 1.76% are forbearance re-entries. This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last few months. The MBA notes: “Total weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) remainedunchanged relative to the prior week at 0.10%.” There hasn’t been a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits.

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased – Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of November 10th. From Black Knight: Another Week of Strong Forbearance Improvement After declining by 5% last week, the number of loans in active forbearance saw another week of strong improvement. According to the latest weekly snapshot of Black Knight’s McDash Flash daily forbearance tracking data, active forbearance plans fell by 121,000 (-4%) over the last week. Overall, that puts forbearance volumes down 9% (-416,000) since the start of November….. As of November 10, there are now 2.74 million homeowners in active forbearance plans, representing approximately 5.2% of all active mortgages, down from 5.4% from last week. Together, they represent $559 billion in unpaid principal.Forbearance starts pulled back, with the week’s 68,000 starts marking the lowest weekly total since the first week of October. New forbearance starts (excluding restarts) hit a COVID-era low of just 31,000. Another 98,000 homeowners had their forbearance plans extended this week….Of the 2.74 million loans still in active forbearance, 81% have had their terms extended at some point since March.With COVID-19 cases rising across the country, it will be important to keep an eye on unemployment numbers and forbearance starts over the coming weeks. Black Knight will continue to monitor the situation and report our findings on this blog.

MBA: “Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Third Quarter of 2020” — From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Third Quarter of 2020 – The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 7.65 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2020, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The delinquency rate was down 57 basis points from the second quarter of 2020 and up 368 basis points from one year ago. For the purposes of the survey, MBA asks servicers to reportloans in forbearance as delinquent if the payment was not made based on the original terms of the mortgage. “Consistent with the improving labor market and the overall economic rebound, homeowners’ ability to make their mortgage payments improved in the third quarter,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The decrease in the mortgage delinquency rate was driven by a sharp decline in newer 30-day delinquencies and 60-day delinquencies. Particularly encouraging was the 30-day delinquency rate, which reached its lowest level since MBA’s survey began in 1979.” Added Walsh, “Nonetheless, the 90-day and over delinquency rate continued to grow and reached its highest level since the second quarter of 2010. With forbearance plans still active and foreclosure moratoriums in place until at least the end of the year, many borrowers experiencing longer-term distress will remain in this delinquency category until a loss mitigation resolution is available.” This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies decreased in Q3. The decrease was in the 30 day and 60 and day buckets. From the MBA: “Compared to last quarter, the seasonally adjusted mortgage delinquency rate decreased for all loans outstanding. By stage, the 30-day delinquency rate decreased 48 basis points to 1.86 percent, the lowest rate since the survey began in 1979. The 60-day delinquency rate decreased 113 basis points to 1.02 percent, and the 90-day delinquency bucket increased 106 basis points to 4.78 percent, the highest rate since the second quarter of 2010.” This sharp increase in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus). The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined further, and was at the lowest level since 1982.

NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Decreased 1.1% YoY in November – From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 80.4 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of November 6: The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 80.4 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by November 6 in its survey of 11.5 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country. This is a 1.1 percentage point, or 131,712 household decrease from the share who paid rent through November 6, 2019 and compares to 79.4 percent that had paid by October 6, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price. “November’s opening rent payment figures show that the additional support apartment residents received over the summer, coupled with generous, innovative approaches put into place by property owners and managers, continue to provide renters with some degree of security against the economic distress facing communities throughout the country,” This graph from the NMHC Rent Payment Tracker shows the percent of household making full or partial rent payments by the 6th of the month. Note: This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties. There are some timing issues month to month, but rent payments are mostly holding steady – and not falling off a cliff.

Home Prices Are Rising Everywhere in the U.S. – WSJ – Home prices rose in every corner of the U.S. during the third quarter, as the pandemic boosted activity in a way not seen in recent history. The median price for existing homes in each of the 181 metro areas tracked by the National Association of Realtors was higher in the third quarter from a year earlier, the association said Thursday. This broad-based rally for single-family homes marked the first time since 1980 that every metro area tracked by NAR posted an annual price increase in the same quarter, NAR said. Back then, the association tracked 19 metro areas. “Americans are viewing their home as something more than what it was before,” as they spend more time at home due to the pandemic, said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Right now there is a greater interest for larger-size homes, and naturally they are more expensive.” Record-low mortgage-interest rates have also motivated shoppers to enter the market. And a longstanding shortage of homes for sale has worsened, increasing competition among buyers and sparking bidding wars. Existing-home sales have surged in recent months and reached a seasonally adjusted 14-year high in September. Prices in most markets weren’t simply edging higher but were up significantly from a year ago. In nearly two-thirds of the metro areas tracked by NAR, prices posted double-digit gains. The biggest gainers were Bridgeport, Conn., where the median price rose 27.3%, and Crestview, Fla., up 27.1%. Nationwide, the median single-family home price rose 12% from a year earlier to $313,500, NAR said. “The housing market is, ironically, benefiting from the coronavirus,” said Ralph DeFranco, global chief economist at Arch Capital Services Inc. “We’re seeing just red-hot demand for both bigger homes but also second homes, and also millennials moving into homeownership from rental.” Low mortgage rates have offset some of the effect of rising home prices for buyers. For the week ended Thursday, the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 2.84%, up from 2.78% last week but down from 3.75% a year earlier, said Freddie Mac. But mortgage rates are unlikely to fall further from here, as positive news about a coronavirus vaccine is making investors more confident, Mr. Yun said.

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased in October From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Loses Ground in June” The Dodge Momentum Index fell 1.8% in October to 127.5 (2000=100) from the revised September reading of 129.8. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Data & Analytics, is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. The commercial component of the Momentum Index lost 4.4% over the month, but the institutional component gained 3.3%. The Momentum Index has struggled to make consistent gains since passing its post-pandemic low in June. Economic growth has slowed over the past few months, creating weaker demand for commercial projects. The fear about a new wave of COVID-19 infections may also be impeding planning activity in consumer-focused projects such as hotels and retail, although planning for warehouse projects continues to impress. Even with this month’s gain, the institutional component of the Momentum Index remains well below levels seen prior to the pandemic as state and local entities come to grips with the widening budget chasm. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 127.5 in October, down from 129.8 in September. According to Dodge, this index leads “construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year”. This index suggests a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through early 2021.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 35.9% Year-over-year From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 7 November – U.S. weekly hotel occupancy was relatively flat from the previous week, according to the latest data from STR through 7 November.

1-7 November 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):

Occupancy: 44.2% (-35.9%)

Average daily rate (ADR): US$91.40 (-31.1%)

Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$40.36 (-55.8%)

Down slightly from 44.4% the prior week, the country’s occupancy level was its lowest since the week of June 14-20. Since there is a seasonal pattern to the occupancy rate – see graph below – we can track the year-over-year change in occupancy to look for any improvement. This table shows the year-over-year change since the week ending Sept 19, 2020:

Consumer Sentiment Fell in First Half of November – WSJ -Americans’ outlook on the economy soured in the two weeks straddling the national elections, as Republicans grew more pessimistic and Democrats worried about a surge in coronavirus infections, according to survey findings released Friday. The University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment dropped to 77.0 in the two weeks ended Nov. 10, from 81.8 in October. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a reading of 81.5. The index of expectations drove the decline, falling to 71.3 from 79.2 in October. The index is the first read on consumer attitudes since President-elect Joe Biden’s victory and President Trump’s campaign launched efforts to contest the election results, which came amid rising coronavirus infections and hospitalizations. “Interviews conducted following the election recorded a substantial negative shift in the Expectations Index among Republicans, but recorded no gain among Democrats,” said Richard Curtin, the survey’s chief economist. Republicans’ economic outlook in early November fell to levels not seen since President Trump was sworn in, said Mr. Curtin. Meanwhile, Democrats’ worries about the coronavirus resurgence likely offset any increased optimism about the economy, he said. Nearly 60% of Democrats reported that the pandemic had dramatically changed their daily lives, compared with just 34% among Republicans. Views on the economy have long been driven more by party affiliation than by actual performance, viewing the economy as performing better when their party has the White House. A daily index of consumer sentiment by Morning Consult, a data intelligence firm, fell to 90.6 in the week ended Nov. 10, down 1.4 points from the previous week, pulled down by declining confidence among Republicans. Attitudes among Democrats rose slightly. The University of Michigan’s release follows signs of continuing economic recovery – including declining jobless claims last week and rising employment and manufacturing and service activity in October.

DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 9.7% year-over-year in September –The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:Travel on all roads and streets changed by -8.6% (-23.4 billion vehicle miles) for September 2020 as compared with September 2019. Travel for the month is estimated to be 248.3 billion vehicle miles. The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for September 2020 is 247.2 billion miles, a -9.7% (-26.7 billion vehicle miles) decline from September 2019. It also represents 2.8% increase (6.7 billion vehicle miles) compared with August 2020. Cumulative Travel for 2020 changed by -14.5% (-355.5 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 2,093.1 billion vehicle miles of travel. This graph shows the rolling 12 month total vehicle miles driven to remove the seasonal factors.Miles driven declined during the great recession, and the rolling 12 months stayed below the previous peak for a record 85 months. Miles driven declined sharply in March, and really collapsed in April.

Supermarkets Limit Toilet Paper Purchases As COVID Cases Hit New Highs –Some experts warn about the genuine possibility that US daily caseloads of coronavirus could breach 200,000 in the coming weeks or by the end of the year as daily new cases top more than 100,000 for the sixth consecutive day. Total cases exceeded ten million on Sunday since the pandemic began, far more than any other country. Weeks ago, on Oct. 28, we informed readers: “panic hoarding begins” – as anxieties of Americans soared in tandem with new cases as threats of a COVID winter along with new restrictions and possible lockdowns drove people to supermarkets. Coronavirus has turned tens of millions of Americans into preppers, as many fringe preppers were relentlessly mocked by mainstream media in February and March ahead lockdowns. A recent survey shows over half of all Americans are currently planning “to stockpile food and other essentials” … Slightly more than half of Americans in a recent poll from Sports and Leisure Research Group say they already have or plan to stockpile food and other essentials. The chief reason is fears of a resurgent pandemic, which could cause disruptions such as new restrictions on businesses. It’s not just food people are prepping once again. New reports across the country suggest toilet paper is becoming a hot commodity. Stores are re-implementing limits on toilet paper as demand surges. Kroger, with more than 2,000 supermarkets nationwide, has just put limits on the essential items “to ensure all customers have access to what they need.” “We’ve proactively and temporarily set purchase limits to two per customer on certain products, including bath tissue, paper towels, disinfecting wipes and hand soap,” a Kroger spokesperson said in a state ment which was quoted by Fox 11 LA. “Our buyers and suppliers are working hard to provide essential, high demand merchandise as well as everyday favorites,” the company wrote.

J.C. Penney rescue deal approved in bankruptcy court (Reuters) – A U.S. judge on Monday approved a deal to rescue J.C. Penney Co Inc from bankruptcy proceedings precipitated by the coronavirus pandemic, averting a liquidation that would have put the beleaguered department store chain out of business and jeopardized tens of thousands of jobs. The U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas approved the deal, which will allow the 118-year-old retailer to emerge from bankruptcy before the upcoming holiday season, the company said in a statement. The rescue deal is expected to save approximately 60,000 jobs. The transaction contains multiple parts. Lenders led by H/2 Capital Partners will forgive $1 billion in debt in exchange for 160 properties and six distribution centers. Mall operators Simon Property Group and Brookfield Property Partners will acquire the company’s slimmed-down retail operations for $1.75 billion in cash and debt. The sale approval comes a week after J.C. Penney’s lawyers announced a settlement with nearly all of its creditor groups that locked in support for the sale and marked a turning point in a bankruptcy case that has been marked by inter-lender fighting. However, a group of equity holders – whose investments will be wiped out – remained opposed to the deal. J.C. Penney filed for bankruptcy in May with nearly $5 billion in debt. The company was one of several retailers, including J. Crew Group Inc, Neiman Marcus Group and Brooks Brothers that sought Chapter 11 protection amid the coronavirus pandemic. . The business began to stumble in recent years as online commerce took a toll on traditional brick-and-mortar retail.

BLS: CPI unchanged in October, Core CPI unchanged —From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in Octoberon a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in October following an increase of 0.2 percent in September. The index for shelter increased 0.1 percent in October, which was offset by a 0.4-percent decrease in the index for medical care. The indexes for airline fares, recreation, and new vehicles were among those to rise, while the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, apparel, and household furnishings and operations declined.The all items index rose 1.2 percent for the 12 months ending October, a slightly smaller increase than the 1.4-percent rise for the 12-month period ending September. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.6 percent over the last 12 months after rising 1.7 percent in September. Overall inflation was lower than expectations in October. I’ll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

Consumer Price Index: October Core at 1.61%, Down from September – The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the October Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 1.18%, down from 1.37% the previous month. Year-over-year Core CPI (ex Food and Energy) came in at 1.61%, down from 1.71% the previous month and below the Fed’s 2% PCE target. Here is the introduction from the BLS summary, which leads with the seasonally adjusted monthly data:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.Component indexes were mixed, with many offsetting increases and decreases. The food index rose 0.2 percent, with the food away from home index increasing by 0.3 percent and a smaller 0.1-percent rise in the food at home index. The energy index rose 0.1 percent in October as the index for electricity increased 1.2 percent.The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in October following an increase of 0.2 percent in September. The index for shelter increased 0.1 percent in October, which was offset by a 0.4-percent decrease in the index for medical care. The indexes for airline fares, recreation, and new vehicles were among those to rise, while the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, apparel, and household furnishings and operations declined.The all items index rose 1.2 percent for the 12 months ending October, a slightly smaller increase than the 1.4-percent rise for the 12-month period ending September. The index for all items less food and energy rose 1.6 percent over the last 12 months after rising 1.7 percent in September. The food index increased 3.9 percent over the last 12 months, while the energy index declined 9.2 percent. Read more Investing.com was looking for a 0.1% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.2% in Core CPI. Year-over-year forecasts were 1.3% for Headline and 1.8% for Core. The first chart is an overlay of Headline CPI and Core CPI (the latter excludes Food and Energy) since the turn of the century. The highlighted two percent level is the Federal Reserve’s Core inflation target for the CPI’s cousin index, the BEA’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Eased Year-over-year in October – The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% October. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in October. “The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report”.Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for October here. Car and Truck rentals increased at a 136% annualized rate in October. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.5%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.2%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.6%. Core PCE is for September and increased 1.5% year-over-year. Overall inflation will not be a concern during the crisis.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 709,000 –The DOL reported: In the week ending November 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 709,000, a decrease of 48,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 6,000 from 751,000 to 757,000. The 4-week moving average was 755,250, a decrease of 33,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,500 from 787,000 to 788,500. This does not include the 298,154 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was down from 361,959 the previous week. (There are some questions on PUA numbers). The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 755,250.The previous week was revised up.The second graph shows seasonally adjust continued claims since 1967 (lags initial by one week).At the worst of the Great Recession, continued claims peaked at 6.635 million, but then steadily declined.Continued claims decreased to 6,786,000 (SA) from 7,222,000 (SA) last week and will likely stay at a high level until the crisis abates.Note: There are an additional 9,433,127 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that increased from 9,332,610 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance. An additional 4,143,389 are receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) that increased from 3,983,613 the previous week.

BLS: Job Openings “Little Changed” at 6.4 Million in September – From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary: The number of job openings was little changed at 6.4 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and total separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 4.7 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was little changed at 2.1 percent while the layoffs and discharges rate decreased to a series low of 0.9 percent. The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. . Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs – when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.The huge spikes in layoffs and discharges in March and April 2020 are labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings increased in September to 6.436 million from 6.352 million in August.The number of job openings (yellow) were down 8.7% year-over-year.Quits were down 12% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for “quits”).Job openings were little changed in September, and are down YoY – and quits are down sharply YoY.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey shows declines in hires: As winter hits, the Biden administration will be facing a mounting, not waning, crisis – EPI Blog by Elise Gould – Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that, as of the middle of September, the economy was still 10 million jobs below where it was in February. Job growth slowed considerably over the last few months and the jobs deficit in October was easily over 11.6 million from where we would have been if the economy had continued adding jobs at the pre-pandemic pace.Today’s BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reports job openings changed little at 6.4 million in September while hires and layoffs fell. While the slowdown in layoffs is promising from 1.5 million to 1.3 million, the softening in hires is a concern (6.0 million to 5.9 million). The U.S. economy is seeing a significantly slower pace of hiring than we experienced in May or June – hiring is roughly where it was before the recession, which is a big problem given that we have more than 11.6 million jobs to make up. And job openings are now substantially below where they were before the recession began (6.4 million at the end of September, compared to 7.1 million on average in the year prior to the recession). No matter how it is measured, the U.S. economy is facing a huge job shortfall.One of the most striking indicators from today’s report is the job seekers ratio, that is, the ratio of unemployed workers (averaged for mid-September and mid-October) to job openings (at the end of September). On average, there were 11.8 million unemployed workers while there were only 6.4 million job openings. This translates into a job seeker ratio of about 1.8 unemployed workers to every job opening. Another way to think about this: for every 18 workers who were officially counted as unemployed, there were only available jobs for 10 of them. That means, no matter what they did, there were no jobs for 5.4 million unemployed workers. And this misses the fact that many more weren’t counted among the unemployed. The economic pain remains widespread with more than 25 million workers hurt by the coronavirus downturn. Without congressional action to stimulate the economy, we are facing a slow, painful recovery.As winter approaches and many families face eviction and hunger as well as growing COIVD-19 cases, the Biden administration will be facing a mounting, not waning, crisis. We cannot wait: Congress must take immediate action to provide relief to all of those unemployed workers who have no hope for employment and are desperately trying to make ends meet. The first dose of austerity exhibited by the loss to the vital enhanced unemployment insurance benefit in August is already taking a toll on job creation. At this slowing pace of job growth, it will take years to return to the pre-pandemic labor market and the economic pain will be deep and long-lasting.

Another 90,000 Airline Jobs Set To Disappear By Year-End As National Lockdown Looms – Despite the bullish news surrounding Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine earlier this week, lifting airline stocks to the stratosphere, on hopes of a recovery in the severely beaten down travel and tourism sector, an industry group warned Thursday about the dire situation still facing many airlines. Airline For America’s CEO Nick Calio, speaking at a conference Thursday morning, said air travel demand is “softening” late in the year. He said some of the reasons for the slump could be due to the resurgence of the virus pandemic. The daily number of passengers screened at TSA checkpoints in the U.S. from March 2019 to November 2020 remains halved from early March levels. As the second wave of the virus pandemic ravages many parts of the U.S. – what appears to be happening in the chart below are lower volumes of daily passengers screened at TSA checkpoints that peaked on Oct. 18. Calio said airlines’ Thanksgiving-week capacity could be down as much as 39% from a year ago, compared with a 47% drop in the first half of November. It was also noted that corporate air travel in the US remains 86% below 2019 levels. He said airlines could ax upwards of 90,000 workers this year as many carriers must reduce costs to survive the downturn. A muted recovery so far and waning revenues have left airlines in a precarious position – where they’re quickly running out of cash. At the moment, airlines are burning through $180 million per day, with only enough cash through 1Q21.

Two Democrats urge CDC to reimpose ‘no-sail’ order after outbreak on Caribbean cruise – Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Calif.) urged the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Friday to reinstate the “no-sail” order on cruise ships amid an outbreak on the first cruise to debark in months. At least five passengers aboard the ship tested positive on SeaDream 1, which left Barbados on Saturday and had traveled to Saint Vincent, Canouan Island and Tobago Cays. According to Gene Sloan, a reporter who was on the ship, all passengers had to test negative several days before boarding and again on the day of boarding. Another round of testing was conducted Wednesday when the passengers tested positive. In a letter to CDC Director Robert Redfield, the Democratic lawmakers said the development is “not surprising” and “reaffirms the need to exercise extreme caution before sending passengers and crew back out to sea on cruises.” The CDC first barred cruise sailing in mid-March and renewed the order in April and July. It lifted the order in October to allow “simulation cruises” to sail in the U.S. and introduced a phased approach for resuming cruises. The lawmakers also noted reports that the White House reportedly blocked the CDC’s plan to extend the no-sail order through February 2021. “[I]t is unconscionable for the CDC to move forward on a plan to resume operations given the ongoing risks,” the lawmakers wrote. “While we appreciate the difficult economic situation cruise line operators face and the desire of many cruising enthusiasts to restore a sense of normalcy, the CDC must always put health and safety first to prevent further spread of this deadly virus and save lives.” The Hill has reached out to the CDC for comment. Cruise ships proved to be dangerous for the spread of the virus after an outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship in February. Several ships docked outside U.S. waters faced similar incidents before cases began to escalate in the U.S.

Oregon governor orders two-week statewide ‘freeze’ amid rising coronavirus cases – Oregon Gov. Kate Brown (D) on Friday ordered a statewide two-week “freeze,” restricting social gatherings and closing many businesses in an effort to help curb the rising spread of COVID-19.Her orders Friday are some of the most extensive restrictions in the state since a March stay-at-home order, The Oregonian reported.Beginning Wednesday, bars and restaurants will become takeout only. Indoor facilities such as gyms, museums and skating rinks will close entirely until the order is lifted after Dec. 2. Indoor and outdoor gatherings will be limited to no more than six people from two separate households.Grocery stores and pharmacies will also be required to limit their capacities, and houses of worship are allotted indoor crowds no larger than 25 people.Anyone traveling to Oregon is also required to quarantine for 14 days upon the arrival.”I want to be honest,” Brown said Friday. “We are trying to stop this ferocious virus from spreading even more quickly and far wide, and to save lives.”She added that some counties could remain in the freeze longer than two weeks, noting that Portland is currently set for four weeks. Multnomah County Chair Deborah Kafoury said the county’s daily case number nearly tripled in the last month, including hundreds of untraceable cases due to the local community spread.”As the most populous county in Oregon with the bulk of the state’s COVID-19 cases and half of the state’s hospital beds, we must immediately take steps to slow the current surge,” Kafoury said.

States reimpose extensive COVID-19 restrictions – Three states are set to reimpose some of the most extensive coronavirus-related restrictions amid a nationwide spike of infections and hospitalizations. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown (D) on Friday announced a two-weeks-long “freeze” that will close certain businesses and dramatically reduce capacity of indoor spaces. Brown’s plan, which will begin next Wednesday, will limit all bars and restaurants to takeout only, close all gyms, prohibit indoor and outdoor gatherings to no more than six people from two different households, cap capacity at grocery stores and pharmacies at 75 percent and allow churches and faith groups to accommodate indoor crowds of no more than 25 people, or 50 people outside. During a press conference, Brown said the freeze will last longer for certain hot spot counties that have been hit harder with the COVID surge. “I want to be honest about that now. Be prepared. Our actions right now, no matter where in the state you live, are absolutely critical,” Brown said. Brown said the freeze will not apply to barber shops, hair salons or homeless shelters. Outdoor recreation and sports programs, including Pac-12 college football games, are also exempt as are child care programs, K-12 schools and higher education institutions. The announcement comes on the same day Brown and fellow West Coast governors in California and Washington issued a joint travel advisory, warning that anyone arriving from out of state should quarantine for two weeks. New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is going even further. The state is going to hit the “reset” button, Lujan Grisham said. From Nov. 16 through Nov. 30, all nonessential businesses will be closed, and residents are being urged to stay at home. Essential businesses, such as grocery stores, pharmacies, child care facilities and more, will be forced to “minimize operations and in-person staffing to the greatest extent possible,” although they may remain open. In Vermont, Gov. Phil Scott is one of the lone Republican governors reimposing harsh restrictions. Effective at 10 p.m. Saturday, the state is prohibiting multiple-household gatherings, both inside and outside. All restaurants have to close in-person dining at 10 p.m., and must provide seated dining service to no more than one household per table. All bars, breweries and social clubs will be closed. All recreational sports programs will be suspended, and out of town college students must quarantine upon arrival in the state.

Maryland governor re-imposes restrictions as COVID-19 cases reach record levels in the Washington, DC region On Tuesday, Maryland’s Republican governor Larry Hogan announced that the state would be re-imposing restrictions on public spaces and businesses as daily numbers of COVID-19 cases have doubled in the past month throughout the Mid-Atlantic region, which includes Washington, DC and Virginia. On Tuesday, the Washington, DC metropolitan region saw 2,859 cases and 27 deaths. This is roughly 30 percent more cases in one day than what was being recorded in the region as recently as a week ago. Maryland has reported nearly half of these cases, with a running daily average of about 1,270 over the past week. Until Wednesday, the state was in “stage 3” of its reopening process, which allowed “high risk” activities to go on without restriction. In March, Hogan had ordered the state to shelter-in-place as COVID-19 initially swept through the area. The new restrictions, which went into effect Wednesday, require restaurants and stores to cut their indoor services by 50 percent. In addition, other gatherings have now been restricted to 25 persons. “We’re now seeing widespread community transmission. More people are getting infected with the virus, more people are being hospitalized and going into intensive care, and more people are dying,” Hogan said at a press conference Tuesday. Various metropolitan and heavily populated suburban jurisdictions in the state have gone even further than the statewide measures. In Montgomery County, the most populous region of the state, Democratic County Executive Marc Elrich on Tuesday imposed measures restricting indoor businesses to 25 percent maximum capacity and gatherings to 25 people or less. The city of Baltimore also enacted similar measures that are set to go into effect Thursday. Hogan’s decision to re-impose social distancing measures comes as daily COVID-19 cases in the United States have cleared upward of 130,000 cases per day and has recorded over 10 million cases as a whole. Daily hospitalization numbers also exceed 60,000 persons. The re-imposition of safety measures in the Mid-Atlantic follows the region’s various Democratic and Republican governments’ efforts to reopen their jurisdictions with reckless abandon over the summer.

New study reveals disturbing surge in violent injuries during stay-at-home orders – The social isolation brought on by stay-at-home orders (SAHO) issued in the early phase of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have a deadly and dangerous side effect: an increase in intentional penetrating injuries, especially firearm violence, that has remained at high levels even as stay-at-home orders have subsided and as COVID-19 cases are on an upswing. Philadelphia-area researchers released these findings in an “article in press” published on the Journal of the American College of Surgeonswebsite in advance of print. Jose L. Pascual, MD, PhD, FACS, and colleagues at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia report that while emergency department (ED) visits fell drastically during stay-at-home orders, visits for intentional injuries reached historic highs and have stayed there since. As of October 19, Philadelphia has experienced 386 homicides, a 39 percent increase over the same time last year, reported KYW/AM Newsradio. “We are now looking at the fact that even though main emergency department admissions have pretty much settled back to numbers pre-COVID–including trauma admissions, falls, motor-vehicle and motorcycle collisions, pedestrian accidents–and elective operations have mostly returned to normal, penetrating injury still remains high,” Dr. Pascual said. Importantly, he noted the same demographic–young African-American men–has been disproportionately impacted by these injuries, before as well as after statewide SAHO were eased.

As COVID-19 cases explode, Iowa remains “open for business” – Iowa’s COVID-19 testing sites were closed for Veteran’s Day Wednesday, as the state braces for the collapse of its health care system due to an exponential rise in infections. The pause in testing comes a day after Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, a Republican, held a press conference to announce new restrictions that will facilitate the spread of the coronavirus in Iowa, which has been unmitigated in the state since cases began spiking this fall. In a state that has seen a 200 percent increase in cases over the last two weeks, the governor’s new regulations fall far short of the most basic precautions established in much of the United States. Iowa is being used by the most craven elements of the ruling class as an experiment in herd immunity. Iowa had the third-highest rate of COVID-19 cases in the United States in the last week according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), with 621 new infections per 100,000 people. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Iowa added 4,421 and 4,764 cases, respectively. Over the past two days, Iowa’s statewide positive case rates have remained near 50 percent, with a 14-day rolling positive rate at 20 percent, indicating uncontrolled spread aided by a criminal lack of testing. Since March, 1,898 Iowans have died from COVID-19, including over 50 in the last 48 hours. On Tuesday, Governor Reynolds announced new toothless regulations after refusing to implement a statewide mask mandate. The new regulations only require masks for gatherings of more than 25 people indoors or 100 people outdoors, with the exception of schools and some workplaces, most notably restaurants and bars, which remain open without any limits on capacity. The new limits tacitly endorse mask-free indoor gatherings under 25, which, according to University of Iowa epidemiologist Eli Perencevich, indicate that the Iowa Department of Public Health “does not know how the virus spreads.” Perencevich tweeted, “This will have a negative impact since it delays implementation of proven effective intervention.” The rapidly growing spread of coronavirus threatens to quickly overwhelming the state’s hospital system, which is nearing 100 percent capacity and actively seeking to hire new health care workers. Despite the overwhelming strain on the health care system and on the paltry Test Iowa program, Reynolds indicated that state-sponsored testing centers would close Wednesday and wind down operations over the holiday week. Reynolds claimed the current daily capacity for processing tests on the state level is now just 2348, down from a high of over 6,000. She continued, “if a Test Iowa site is full, please seek out other options,” before listing options that included buying tests at Costco, which are currently only available online, for $130.

Hundreds of thousands of people face utility shutoffs as pandemic surges — Chelsie DeSouza of South Philadelphia lost her job to the COVID-19 pandemic. So, a coronavirus-related moratorium on utility bills meant there was one less stress on her shoulders. That bill came back this week when the moratorium ended on Nov. 9, thanks to a Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission vote. The same day shutoffs resumed, DeSouza got an email from PECO informing her that the moratorium had ended and warned her of her past-due account. DeSouza panicked. “It gave me a lot of anxiety, just trying to figure out how I would pay what I owed,” she said of the last-minute notice. DeSouza was fortunate to be able to pay and avoid shutoff. Yet hundreds of thousands of Philadelphia households struggle with a more difficult path as unemployment soars and coronavirus infections surge. As of June, the number of customers at risk of having their utilities shut off was as high as 800,000 for regulated utility companies, said Community Legal Services attorney Rob Ballenger. He expects the numbers to be even higher today. It is unknown how many customers of unregulated utility companies have also fallen behind and could be disconnected. “Now, as our case numbers look to be awful and trending higher and higher every day now, there’s this additional likelihood of harm to a utility shutoff resulting from a lifting of the absolute ban of utility shutoffs in Pennsylvania,” Ballenger said. Anyone whose household income is at or below 300% of the federal poverty level – about $65,000 a year for a family of three – can be protected from utility terminations. Under state law, publicly regulated utility companies are obligated to tell consumers how to avoid termination. That might include assistance programs they may be eligible for, many of which are funded by the state. PECO lists some of these programs on its website. A PECO spokeswoman said there were more than 325,000 customers with outstanding balances as of Wednesday. She declined to say whether the utility had begun disconnecting people, but she noted that it has launched numerous customer assistance programs, and that customers who can’t pay their bills should call 1-888-480-1533 or visit the website for information on relief. Relief programs include payment plans with no added interest and grant programs for outstanding balances.

DeSantis hires COVID-conspiracy spinning blogger – When Gov. Ron DeSantis needed to hire a data analyst, his staff picked a little-known Ohio sports blogger and Uber driver whose only relevant experience is spreading harmful conspiracy theories about COVID-19 on the Internet. In his own words, Kyle Lamb of Columbus, Ohio, has few qualifications for the job at the state’s Office of Policy and Budget, which pays $40,000 per year.”Fact is, I’m not an ‘expert.’ I’m not a doctor, epidemiologist, virologist or scientist,” Lamb wroteon a website for a subscribers-only podcast he hosts about the coronavirus. “I also don’t need to be. Experts don’t have all the answers, and we’ve learned that the hard way.”Plucked from the obscurity of the blogosphere, Lamb, 40, broadcasts his lack of scientific training in his theories about the pandemic. In frequent posts on Twitter and sports message boards, Lamb has said that masks don’t prevent the coronavirus from spreading; that lockdowns are ineffective; that hydroxychloroquine, a drug touted by President Donald Trump, can treat the virus; that COVID-19, which he said might be part of a Chinese “biowar,” is not more deadly than the flu; and that the virus isn’t dangerous for children to contract.

Oregon Governor Kate Brown allows 150,000 students to return to unsafe schools — On October 29, Oregon’s Democratic Governor Kate Brown released new guidelines for the reopening of public schools, which would allow around 25 percent of the state’s students to return to classrooms in the next month. Brown’s office made the announcement on the same day COVID-19 cases skyrocketed to record levels, making clear that the new guidelines have nothing to do with the safety of teachers and students. Until now, most school districts could only reopen when the statewide test positivity rate was at 5 percent or lower, a measurement that has not been met since mid-September. Smaller districts were allowed to reopen when the number of positive cases were no more than 10 per 100,000 for three consecutive weeks, and kindergarten to third-grade classrooms could reopen with case rates of 30 per 100,000 over the same period. These guidelines had allowed between 35,000 to 45,000 students to return to some form of in-person instruction, most of them young children and kids with special needs, according to the Oregon Department of Education (ODE). The new guidelines eliminate the statewide positivity rate requirement and group all K-6 students together. School districts may now fully reopen with a two-week total of up to 50 cases per 100,000, and operate in a hybrid model in counties with two-week case rates of up to 100 per 100,000. If one adjusts the case-rate criteria to be compared on a one-week window, the case-rate limit has been increased by over 7.5 times from the previous standards. With the green light from the governor, an estimated 150,000 of the state’s 600,000 public school children will return to campus in some fashion. The major exception is the Portland metro area, which has maintained a relatively high rate of cases in the state given its population density.

Massachusetts governor pushes for in-person learning as COVID-19 cases surge – As coronavirus cases continue to soar in Massachusetts, reaching over 2,000 cases per day for the first time since the heights of the first wave in the spring, Republican Governor Charlie Baker and state officials are continuing their pressure campaign to herd students and teachers back into classrooms. In the week from October 29 to November 4, new coronavirus cases were reported in 118 Massachusetts school districts among staff and students, with nine districts reporting five or more cases. This is undoubtedly a significant undercount, as schools are not required to report these figures. Haverill Public Schools reported the most cases at 10, nine of whom are staff members. The criminal effort to reopen schools for in-person and hybrid learning is being approached by the state on several fronts. There has been a consistent change to criteria under which school and other closings would take place, turning inadequate measures into what is becoming the deliberate culling of untold numbers of people. The continued operation of Boston Public Schools (BPS) well beyond the previously agreed upon 4 percent city positivity rate threshold, which was quickly raised to 5 percent, is but one example of this effort. While Boston schools were forced to close October 22, there is a push to reopen them. Baker has gone a step further, declaring that schools across the state should close only as a “last resort” when there is evidence of transmission within the school. When transmission does occur within a school, it is proposed that only those classrooms where it occurred will be closed, not the entire campus. Accompanying these state measures are changes to the metrics and methodology used to classify the level of transmission risk per district, the lowest designated as grey and increasing to green, yellow, then red. What was previously considered a red zone, at eight cases per 100,000 residents, has now been adjusted according to population size. A town with a population of 10,000 or less will now need to have over 25 cases, a rate of 250 cases per 100,000, to be deemed red. This and other changes made to the metrics dropped the number of red zone districts from 121 to 16 overnight, despite the growing number of cases. Unscientific claims are also being advanced to justify the forced opening of schools. This includes the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) school opening guidelines, which cite flawed and limited studies to claim that schools would be safe and children would not catch or spread the virus easily. On November 6, Baker claimed: “At this point there is clear and convincing scientific data that shows children are at significantly less risk of developing serious health issues from exposure to COVID-19, and there is clear and convincing scientific data that shows learning in a classroom, as long as people are playing by the rules, does not lead to higher transmission rates.” He added that remote-only learning carries mental health risks such as depression and anxiety.

The deliberate sabotage of online learning in the US – Tens of millions of students, parents and teachers across the United States and internationally are struggling through a semester unlike any other in modern history. The policy of closing school buildings and implementing online learning – the result of brave protests and strikes by teachers, parents and students – has saved an untold number of lives throughout the world. In the US, the deliberate defunding of public education by both Democrats and Republicans, and years of a growing “digital divide” between the haves and have-nots, has meant that online learning is often bare-bones, unengaging or even completely inaccessible for millions of young people. It is no surprise that 60 percent of teens say that online learning is worse than in-person learning, and nearly one-fifth say it’s “much worse,” according to a recent survey by Common Sense Media. The unfolding disaster in the transition to online learning is both the cumulative effect of the decades-long defunding of public education and the intentional deepening of this policy amid the pandemic. The disregard of the ruling elites for the lives and education of young people has been made apparent in the chaotic implementation of distance learning done “on the cheap.” Students have experienced uncertain schedules, rotating between fully- and partially-online learning. Meanwhile, parents, teachers, and students have been left with little or no assistance and resources. The net result is the deliberate blackmail of a generation – to get a semblance of an education, they are being forced into deadly school buildings. The ruling elites are attempting to force schools to reopen so that parents can be forced back into unsafe workplaces, pumping out profits for the major corporations. The last thing big business wants is a quality online education alternative which would cut across the demand that parents be on the job. According to CISION PRWeb, over 60 percent of K-12 students now attend schools in-person at least part of the week, with 35.7 percent of schools offering in-person learning every day, 26.5 percent in a hybrid schedule of two-three in-person days per week and 37.8 percent of schools only offering virtual learning.

Iowa teacher dies three days after testing positive for coronavirus – A 38-year-old teacher in Iowa died last week, just three days after testing positive for coronavirus. Daniel Frazier, superintendent of the Belmond-Klemme Community School District, told the Des Moines Register that teachers and staff members at the secondary school were tested last week following an outbreak of COVID-19. Jason Englert, a teacher for the district’s Talented and Gifted program, was told he was positive on Nov 5. “We sent him home early that Thursday and checked on him that Thursday night and that was the last time we heard from him,” Frazier said. Police were sent to Englert’s home for a welfare check on Sunday after he failed to return his father’s calls, according to Frazier. Police discovered his body and investigators concluded that the teacher had died suddenly a day or two earlier. It was Englert’s first year at the school district, located approximately 90 miles north of Iowa’s capital city of Des Moines. The teacher also coached junior high volleyball and junior high girls basketball. “For the students, of course it was such a shock at first. Many of our students had trouble knowing how to register this,” Frazier said in an interview with news station KCCI 8. Englert was described as a teacher with a “positive energy” and “a lot of energy.” “He was just a very energetic guy, and he always had a cheerful way of looking at things,” Frazier said. “It wasn’t unusual for me to ask him how it was going and he would say things like ‘living the dream.’ “

Notre Dame orders COVID-19 tests for students after massive celebration of win over Clemson Students at the University of Notre Dame will be subject to mandatory coronavirus tests and strict penalties as a result of thousands of fans storming the football field and partying to celebrate their victory over the Clemson University Tigers on Saturday. The Associated Press reports that students will be required to take a coronavirus test before leaving South Bend, Ind., for the upcoming winter break or risk facing penalties. University President Rev. John I. Jenkins said in an email to students on Sunday that it was “very disappointing to see evidence of widespread disregard for our health protocols at many gatherings over the weekend.” In his email, Jenkins said he consulted with Mark Fox, deputy health officer for St. Joseph County, when deciding what actions to take in response to these events. According to the email, students will be placed on a registration hold if they fail to appear for requested testing, heightening the penalty from a previous statement that said students would only lose their priority registration status. Their registration will also be placed on hold if students are discovered to have left the South Bend area before receiving their test results The letter states there will be “zero tolerance” for gatherings that are not in line with health and safety guidelines, regardless of whether they occur on campus. Sanctions will be placed against those who host such gatherings. If a student tests positive for COVID-19 they will be required to self-isolate on campus for two weeks, the AP reports.

UAlbany going fully remote for rest of semester | WNYT.com –UAlbany is going fully remote for the rest of the fall 2020 semester. That starts this Tuesday, November 10. The school said Monday it comes after a “significant spike” in coronavirus cases. Campus housing will remain open. The last day of classes will be Nov. 24, with final exams Nov. 30 through December 7. The spring semester will begin February 1. As a result of a very concerning increase in the number of presumptive COVID-19 cases among University at Albany students, on Friday, November 6, we decided to conduct surge testing. Approximately 3,400 samples were submitted from on-campus students, which resulted in a presumed positivity rate of 3.3%. As per our COVID plan, we have identified the corresponding students and they have been placed in quarantine, aside from students who opted to quarantine in their homes. In addition, there will be a number of steps being taken as part of PAUSE to help ensure the health and safety of our entire campus community. These include:

• Moving to take-out dining only
• No seating in the Campus Center or other common spaces on campus
• Remote-only use of the libraries
• No campus events or gathering of any size
• Suspension of all athletics and recreation activities

These changes will be effective immediately. Please see our PAUSE webpage for more details. It is also critical that we continue to monitor the infectivity rate among our students and employees through the University’s surveillance testing program. If you are on campus, please continue to submit your individual saliva tests weekly on the day designated, or more often if directed. For regular updates, please monitor your email and our COVID-19 website.

Tesla’s Musk Says He May Have Covid-19, Calls Tests ‘Extremely Bogus’ – Tesla Inc.’s Elon Musk tweeted he may have Covid-19 and renewed his conspiratorial posting about the virus that has infected almost 53 million people. “Something extremely bogus is going on,” the chief executive officer wrote late Thursday. “Was tested for covid four times today. Two tests came back negative, two came back positive.” The billionaire said he took a series of rapid antigen tests, which produce results within 15 minutes and are cheaper but less reliable than polymerase chain reaction tests. He’s now waiting for results from the latter type of test, which take longer to process. Musk, 49, wrote that he was experiencing symptoms of a typical cold, describing them as “nothing unusual so far.” The CEO has at times been dismissive and sowed doubts about Covid-19, questioning the virality of the disease and claiming fatality rates are overstated. In March, he predicted there would be close to zero new cases in the U.S. by April. Roughly 150,000 cases are now being reported in the country each day. Musk appeared to cast doubt on the extent of infections in a follow-up tweet, claiming false positive results will track with the number of tests conducted and that the U.S. daily test rate has “gone ballistic.”

Veteran Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat dies after battle with Covid-19 – Saeb Erekat, a senior Palestinian politician and veteran peace negotiator, has died weeks after testing positive for the coronavirus. He was 65. A spokesperson for Hadassah Hospital in Jerusalem confirmed to NBC News that he had passed away. The hospital said Erekat was admitted last month infected by the coronavirus and in a “critical condition.” Erekat, who had previously had a lung transplant, passed away following multi-organ failure, the statement added. One of the most recognizable faces among the Palestinian leadership, for decades Erekat served as a senior negotiator in talks with Israel, often donning a black-and-white checked Palestinian kaffiyeh scarf.

Ukraine’s president tests positive for COVID-19 – Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, announced Monday that he had tested positive for COVID-19. In a tweet Monday afternoon local time, Zelensky said that he would self-isolate and continue to work remotely while he recovered from the virus. “There are no lucky people for whom #COVID19 does not pose a threat. Despite all the quarantine measures, I received a positive test. I feel good & take a lot of vitamins. Promise to isolate myself, but keep working. I will overcome COVID19 as most people do. It’s gonna be fine!” he wrote. Ukraine’s rate of new COVID-19 cases has surged in recent weeks along with the arrival of fall and reached 10,000 cases per day for the first time this month. The country has recorded just under half a million infections since the pandemic began, according to a Johns Hopkins University tracker. Zelensky was drawn into U.S. headlines last year when it was revealed that President Trump had urged Zelensky and Ukraine’s government to open a politically-charged investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden (D) over supposedly corrupt dealings involving his son Hunter Biden in Ukraine. Zelensky’s government declined to do so. Trump’s contacts with Zelensky formed the basis of House Democrats’ articles of impeachment against the president, passed late last year, for which Trump was acquitted in a Senate trial in early 2020.

Denmark shelves plans to cull up to 17 million mink over coronavirus concerns – The Danish government has paused plans to mandate culling of the country’s entire mink population to contain a coronavirus mutation that had arisen in the infected animals after conceding it had no legal authority to carry out the plan, according to The Washington Post. Danish authorities last week announced they were moving forward with plans to cull up to 17 million animals due to the strain, following early lab results that showed the mutation could be less sensitive to antibodies and impact the effectiveness of a future vaccine. The strain spread from minks to at least 12 humans in August and September and was confirmed to be found on only five of the more than 1,000 farms in the country. But the decision to kill the animals that are relied on for the country’s profitable fur industry hit a snag after health authorities warned the move could be too premature. The World Health Organization also cautioned that it is too early to determine if the mutation was significant enough to pose an increased risk to humans.Viruses naturally mutate, and scientists have observed minor mutations in the new novel coronavirus, but none that have affected its ability to spread or cause disease in any significant way. Members of Parliament argued the Danish government cannot legally order the mass culling and refused to pass legislation that would authorize the order.”There are huge doubts relating to whether the planned cull was based on an adequate scientific basis,” Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, leader of the opposition Liberals, said, according to Bloomberg. “At the same time, one’s depriving a lot of people of their livelihoods.” Authorities pushing the order backtracked on Monday and conceded they could not legally order the killing of the animals outside areas considered to be high-risk. On Tuesday, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen apologized for issuing the order, the Post reports citing state broadcaster TV 2. Frederiksen, however, has not ruled out a future cull. Coronavirus outbreaks within mink farms have persisted in Denmark over the course of the pandemic despite ongoing efforts by the government to cull herds of infected animals.

Teachers strike across France against Macron administration’s “herd immunity” policy for schools – Yesterday, tens of thousands of teachers across France took part in a one-day strike action to oppose the Macron administration’s criminal and reckless policy of allowing the coronavirus pandemic to spread through schools.According to the trade unions, the strike participation was between 20 percent among primary school teachers and 45 percent in middle schools. The government’s own figures, which generally underestimate the actual participation in strikes, recorded participation of 8.8 percent and 10.4 percent, respectively.The one-day strike followed a week of walkouts organized by rank-and-file teachers since the resumption of classes following the holiday break last Monday. Teachers at dozens of schools convened meetings before school and voted not to enter classrooms, under conditions of a massive resurgence of the virus and where not even the most minimal social distancing measures are in place to prevent its spread among students, teachers and their families.Students also protested at about 10 high schools in the Paris area yesterday. They blockaded entrances to schools and demanded that schools be closed. As with last week’s protests, riot police were swiftly called out to violently repress the protests using tear gas and charges with riot shields. Police set up cordons outside several high schools and demanded papers from every student before allowing them to enter. Teachers protest in front of the Local Education Authority of Pau, southwestern France, Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2020, asking for the protection of pupils from the COVID-19. (AP Photo/Bob Edme) The Macron government’s policy has allowed the pandemic to spread beyond control. Another 472 people died on Tuesday. The day before, 551 had died, the highest daily death toll in the autumn, and only slightly below the record of 613 people who died on April 6. In the last 24 hours, the number of occupied emergency care beds increased by 472, bringing the total to 4,736. A total of 3,168 people were admitted to hospitals. The rolling seven-day average of new coronavirus cases is now well over 40,000, equivalent on a per-capita basis to more than 200,000 cases daily in the United States.

Herd immunity policy in German schools leads to explosion of coronavirus infections – The number of people infected with coronavirus in Germany continues to rise steadily, with more people being taken into hospital, intensive care units and needing ventilators every day. On Friday, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) registered 23,542 COVID-19 infections in 24 hours, an all-time high. Over 600 new patients were admitted to intensive care units and another 218 patients died from the virus. This week, pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and BioNTech announced news of a possible breakthrough in the search for a COVID-19 vaccine. Other clinical studies also confirm that it may soon be technically possible to provide the world’s population with a vaccine against Sars-CoV-2. A possible end to the pandemic is thus within reach. And yet capitalist politicians refuse to do everything possible to protect the population. They continue to insist that it is necessary to “live with the virus,” maintaining their de facto herd immunity policy. This is especially true in the federal state of Hesse and the cities of Offenbach and Frankfurt am Main. Both districts have unusually high case numbers. Offenbach, in Hesse, has the highest seven-day incidence rate – 317 infected persons per 100,000 inhabitants – and Frankfurt follows in second place with an incidence rate of 273.2. It is no coincidence that it is precisely in these two cities that the most elementary World Health Organization requirements for controlling the pandemic – testing, isolation and contact tracing – are blatantly disregarded. To keep schools, day-care centres and businesses open at all costs, the politicians responsible in Frankfurt and Offenbach have decided to quarantine only those students who have tested positive at school. If a student is proven to be infected, neither the student’s classmates nor teachers are sent home or even tested. The case of a schoolgirl in Offenbach reported by the Hessenschau and broadcaster ARD brings to light the full extent of the criminal negligence involved. Schoolgirl Mara, whose classmate tested positive for coronavirus, sat in the classroom behind the sick girl. Nevertheless, she continued attending school untested. Her mother then organized her own test – and lo and behold, Mara was also positive. “If I had stayed in school,” the girl commented, “I would have spent more time with my classmates and friends, who might have become infected.”

The Collateral Damage to Children’s Education During Lockdown – School closures during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic raised concerns about how well children were learning out of school, and which groups were most likely to fall behind. According to the UN, some 95% of the world’s school population have been affected by now, constituting the largest disruption to education in history (United Nations 2020). Many observers have pointed to the potential harm in terms of learning progress, and the increased care burden on parents (Burgess and Sievertsen 2020, Ilzetzki 2020, Kuhfeld et al. 2020, Moroni et al. 2020). In countries like England, Germany, or France, leaders have opted to close bars and restaurants while letting schools stay open when going into a second lockdown. In other countries, stimulus packets are being directed at the economy while children are still being kept at home. As the debate rages, reliable evidence on the costs of school closures has been hard to come by. There are several reasons for this. Data from schools are usually not collected and disseminated in real time, unlike data on economic activity, hospitalisations, or fatalities that have dominated the debate on the impacts of the pandemic (Chetty et al. 2020, Dong et al. 2020). Another challenge is inferential: test scores can fluctuate from one year to the next, so valid inference ideally requires data from before schools closed and after they reopened. We also need a relevant comparison group, and information to ensure that the two are similar in relevant respects. For example, if advantaged families keep their children from going back to school, average test scores may decline even if there is no loss of learning. In this column, we provide new information on how children’s learning suffered when primary schools closed for eight weeks in the Netherlands (Engzell et al. 2020). We meet the above challenges by drawing on exceptionally rich data and nationally standardised tests that took place just before and after lockdown. This lets us implement a difference-in-differences design where we compare progress during school closures to that occurring in a normal year. We adjust for selection bias by matching on a large set of observables, but also with fixed-effects models that compare students within the same school and family. The Netherlands is especially interesting as a ‘best-case’ scenario with a relatively light impact in the first pandemic wave, a short lockdown, and world-leading rates of broadband access (Di Pietro et al. 2020).

‘Generational catastrophe’ looms as 97 percent of Latin American students are out of school – The coronavirus pandemic is disproportionately threatening the education of millions of children in Latin America and the Caribbean due to school closures aimed at curbing the spread of the virus and lack of resources for remote learning, a UNICEF report released Monday says. The United Nations children’s agency found 97 percent of children in Latin America and the Caribbean – more than 137 million children – have been out of the classroom more than seven months into the pandemic. The report says those children have lost 174 days of learning on average compared to the rest of the world, and are now at risk of missing out on an entire school year as the pandemic rages on and the majority of classrooms remain closed across the region. “Across Latin America and the Caribbean, millions of the most vulnerable students may not return to school,” Bernt Aasen, UNICEF Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean, said in a statement. “For those without computers, without internet, or even without a place to study, learning from home has become a daunting challenge.”The educational gaps between poor and wealthy families across the region has significantly widened as a consequence of the pandemic. The percentage of children not receiving any form of education has spiked from 4 percent to 18 percent over the course of a few months and the UN projects the pandemic could push an additional 3 million out of school. The report warns a “generational catastrophe” is looming as progress in education in the regions over the past several decades are at risk of being reversed. “The economic impact of this education crisis will be felt for years to come,” the report said. Latin America has reported more than 11.6 million cases so far and more than 400,000 deaths, according to a Reuters tally.

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