by rjs, MarketWatch 666
The news posted last week for the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some important articles are summarized here. The articles are more or less organized with general virus news and anecdotes first, then stories from around the US, followed by an increased number of items from other countries around the globe. New US cases turned up by 15% in the last week (for the second week in a row). US deaths increased by >10%. Elsewhere, new cases are still rising again in Europe and globally. Economic news related to COVID-19 is found here.
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Summary:
Another week of record cases in the US and Europe….US records were broken and reset on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday – Saturday’s count would have been a record had it come before Thursday. New cases were up about 15% week over week, and have almost doubled in the past 5 weeks – 16 states hit new highs on Friday alone. Hospitalizations are up about 25% over the past two weeks; most of the MIdwest states that were leading the new case surge early in October are now posting record hospitalizations. There are a few articles on overcrowded hospitals below – I meant to get more but didn’t get back to it. US deaths are also rising again, up more than 10% week over week.
There were also new record new cases globally twice this week. Last week’s new cases record was beaten on four separate days, over 500,000 each time. It looks like we’re getting close to averaging a half million new cases a day – There should be a headline to that effect sometime next week..
Calculated Risk is tracking the daily testing rate and results. The 31 October graphic:
The increase in new cases is coming from a slight increase in testing and a pronounced upturn in percent positive.
Another source of regularly updated data is the Johns Hopkins’ web site. Below is a graphic for Johns Hopkins for the daily global new cases since the start of the pandemic.
Also, the map from Reuters has been updated for data through 30 October. Since last week one more state (Missouri) has joined the group of states setting records for daily new cases at least once during October. The map is interactive to show data if you click on it:
Of course, Steven Hansen summarizes and links the latest news related to the pandemic every day, 7 days a week, plus displays over a dozen important graphics updated at least daily. The most recent article at the time this is published: 31 October 2020 Coronavirus Charts and News: New York Now Requires Visitors To Undergo COVID-19 Testing. England To Lockdown Again.
This article leads the daily newsletter from Global Economic Intersection every day. Newsletter subscription is free.
Here are the rest of the articles for the past week reviewed and summarized:
COVID-19 antibodies see drop in months following infection: study Coronavirus antibodies dropped by nearly 26 percent in the three months following infection, according to a new REACT2 study.The research, published on Tuesday, surveyed a total of nearly 365,000 British adults from June through September. Almost 17,500 people in that group who tested positive for COVID-19 showed a decline in the presence of antibodies across all age groups.”We know seasonal colds can reinfect people every six months,” Wendy Barclay, head of the infectious disease department at Imperial College London, told Politico, noting that the coronavirus appears to follow a similar trend. Rates at which the antibodies decreased over time varied, according to Politico. Cases in which the infected person was asymptomatic showed a rapid drop, while younger people had high levels of antibodies and a slower decline and older people had lower levels of antibodies from the beginning. “We don’t yet know what level of antibody is needed in a person’s blood to prevent reinfection,” Barclay said. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) backtracked on earlier guidance that said the coronavirus had a three-month window of immunity following infection. “People can continue to test positive for up to 3 months after diagnosis and not be infectious to others. Contrary to media reporting today, this science does not imply a person is immune to reinfection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in the 3 months following infection,” the CDC said in a press release in August. Despite this, German virologist Christian Drosten believes that antigen testing could still be useful in combating COVID-19. “We could develop a working hypothesis in public health,” he said, according to Politico. “A negative result of [an] antigen test predicts a waning of infectability in a patient.”
NIH halts study of Eli Lilly antibody drug for treating hospitalized COVID-19 patients – Federal researchers have ended a study into the effectiveness of Eli Lilly’s antibody treatment for hospitalized COVID-19 patients due to a lack of effectiveness. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), which is funding the study, announced late Monday that an independent monitoring board found little clinical benefit in the treatment and recommended that it be stopped. The study had been paused earlier this month due to a potential safety issue, but the NIAID said the monitoring board’s decision was driven by lack of clinical benefit. The study was designed to evaluate Eli Lilly’s neutralizing antibody as a treatment for COVID-19 in hospitalized patients in combination with the antiviral drug remdesivir. It was being tested against a combination of remdesivir and a placebo. The agency said the larger trial will continue to study other experimental therapies compared to placebos in adults hospitalized with COVID-19. Eli Lilly said it will also continue testing its antibody drug in patients with mild to moderate cases, in people recently diagnosed with COVID-19 and as a way to prevent COVID-19 in residents and staff at long-term care facilities. The decision to end the study is not likely to impact the Food and Drug Administration’s review of Eli Lilly’s application for an emergency use authorization of the antibody drug, which was based on evidence it improved the condition of recently diagnosed high-risk patients with mild to moderate COVID-19. Monoclonal antibodies are lab-generated versions of one of the human body’s main defenses against pathogens. AstraZeneca and Regeneron, among other companies, are also working on antibody treatments. The use of antibodies to treat COVID-19 made headlines recently after President Trump said he received an antibody cocktail from Regeneron and touted it as a “miracle” and a “cure.” Trump ally and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) also said he was treated with Eli Lilly’s antibody drug, along with remdesivir.
Medical Xpress: Study finds over 80% of COVID-19 patients have vitamin D deficiency. Over 80 percent of 200 COVID-19 patients in a hospital in Spain have vitamin D deficiency, according to a new study published in the Endocrine Society’s Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism. Vitamin D is a hormone the kidneys produce that controls blood calcium concentration and impacts the immune system. Vitamin D deficiency has been linked to a variety of health concerns, although research is still underway into why the hormone impacts other systems of the body. Many studies point to the beneficial effect of vitamin D on the immune system, especially regarding protection against infections. “One approach is to identify and treat vitamin D deficiency, especially in high-risk individuals such as the elderly, patients with comorbidities, and nursing home residents, who are the main target population for the COVID-19,” said study co-author Jose L. Hernflndez, Ph.D., of the University of Cantabria in Santander, Spain. “Vitamin D treatment should be recommended in COVID-19 patients with low levels of vitamin D circulating in the blood since this approach might have beneficial effects in both the musculoskeletal and the immune system.” The researchers found 80 percent of 216 COVID-19 patients at the Hospital Universitario Marques de Valdecilla had vitamin D deficiency, and men had lower vitamin D levels than women. COVID-19 patients with lower vitamin D levels also had raised serum levels of inflammatory markers such as ferritin and D-dimer.
Some COVID-19 “long haulers” experience lasting skin problems – – – Some patients with COVID-19 have persistent skin-related symptoms long after their initial infection has cleared, according to a new analysis. The findings point to another burden experienced by so-called “long haulers” who get better but don’t seem to fully recover from COVID-19. For the analysis, researchers established an international registry for COVID-19 skin manifestations in April 2020, in collaboration with the International League of Dermatological Societies and the American Academy of Dermatology. Clinicians were contacted in June and August to update COVID-19 laboratory test results and the duration of patients’ COVID-19 skin symptoms. The team defined long haulers as anyone with skin symptoms of COVID-19 that persisted for at least 60 days.The team evaluated almost 1,000 cases of patients with skin manifestations of COVID-19. Among 224 total suspected cases and 90 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 from 39 countries with information on symptom duration, the median duration of symptoms was 12 days. Rash-like morbilliform and urticarial eruptions lasted a median of seven days and four days, respectively, for patients with lab-confirmed COVID-19, with a maximum duration of 28 days. Papulosquamous eruptions, which are scaly papules and plaques, lasted a median of 20 days in lab-confirmed cases, with one confirmed long hauler eruption lasting 70 days. Pernio/chilblains, or redness and swelling of the feet and hands, commonly known as “COVID toes,” lasted a median of 15 days in patients with suspected COVID-19 and 10 days in lab-confirmed cases. Notably, six patients with pernio/chilblains were long haulers with toe symptoms lasting at least 60 days, with two lab-confirmed patients with COVID toes lasting longer than 130 days.”Our findings reveal a previously unreported subset of patients with long-standing skin symptoms from COVID-19, in particular those with COVID toes. This data adds to our knowledge about the long-term effects of COVID-19 in different organ systems. The skin is potentially a visible window into inflammation that could be going on in the body,” said senior author Esther E. Freeman, MD, PhD, director of Global Health Dermatology at MGH. “We encourage clinicians taking care of patients with COVID-19 to ask about and evaluate any skin symptoms. Health care providers can enter information into our registry to further our understanding of the dermatologic effects of COVID-19.”
Close to 17 percent of patients recovered from COVID-19 could still carry virus– –A new study in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, published by Elsevier, presents new data that address important questions pertaining to the containment of the coronavirus pandemic: When should COVID-19 quarantine really end and which continuing symptoms may be more indicative of a positive test in recovered patients?The study was conducted by the Fondazione Policlinico Universitario “Agostino Gemelli” IRCCS, Rome, Italy, where a multidisciplinary healthcare service was established for all patients who have recovered from COVID-19 to study what happens to them after recovery and to assess the impact of the virus on their bodies.Investigators report that close to 17 percent of patients considered fully recovered from COVID-19 tested positive for the virus in follow-up screening. Patients who continued to have respiratory symptoms, especially sore throat and rhinitis, were more likely to have a new positive test result. This suggests the persistence of these two symptoms should not be underestimated and should be adequately assessed in all patients considered recovered from COVID-19.”Clinicians and researchers have focused on the acute phase of COVID-19, but continued monitoring after discharge for long-lasting effects is needed,” explained lead investigator Francesco Landi, MD, PhD, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario “Agostino Gemelli” IRCCS, and Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Rome, Italy.
Covid: Antibodies ‘fall rapidly after infection’ – BBC — Levels of protective antibodies in people wane “quite rapidly” after coronavirus infection, say researchers. Antibodies are a key part of our immune defences and stop the virus from getting inside the body’s cells. The Imperial College London team found the number of people testing positive for antibodies has fallen by 26% between June and September. They say immunity appears to be fading and there is a risk of catching the virus multiple times. The news comes as figures from the Office for National Statistics show that the number of Covid-19 deaths in the UK rose by 60% in the week of 16 October. The ONS figures suggest there have now been more than 60,000 deaths involving Covid-19 in the UK. More than 350,000 people in England have taken an antibody test as part of the REACT-2 study so far. In the first round of testing, at the end of June and the beginning of July, about 60 in 1,000 people had detectable antibodies. But in the latest set of tests, in September, only 44 per 1,000 people were positive. It suggests the number of people with antibodies fell by more than a quarter between summer and autumn. “Immunity is waning quite rapidly, we’re only three months after our first [round of tests] and we’re already showing a 26% decline in antibodies,” said Prof Helen Ward, one of the researchers. The fall was greater in those over 65, compared with younger age groups, and in those without symptoms compared with those with full-blown Covid-19. The number of healthcare workers with antibodies remained relatively high, which the researchers suggest may be due to regular exposure to the virus. Antibodies stick to the surface of the coronavirus to stop it invading our body’s cells and attacking the rest of the immune system. Exactly what the antibody drop means for immunity is still uncertain. There are other parts of the immune system, such as T-cells, which may also play a role, directly killing infected host cells and calling to other immune cells to help out. However, the researchers warn antibodies tend to be highly predictive of who is protected. Prof Wendy Barclay said: “We can see the antibodies and we can see them declining and we know antibodies on their own are quite protective. “On the balance of evidence, I would say it would look as if immunity declines away at the same rate as antibodies decline away, and that this is an indication of waning immunity.”
Large UK Study Delivers Big Blow to Covid Herd Immunity Thesis, Raises Concerns About Vaccine Strategies –Yves Smith –From early on, we’ve raised concerns about how much protection the much-awaited Covid vaccine would provide, since contracting the other common coronaviruses confers only limited immunity: on the short end, about six months for the common cold and on the long, 34 months for MERS.A new large-sacle study in the UK confirms these worries. Tests of over 350,000 people determined that the percentage with Covid antibodies has fallen in the last few months, which is alarmingly at odds with the fact that more people cumulatively have contracted the disease over time. The falloff in antibody levels is similar to that of the common cold, meaning consistent with being infected producing only short-term immunity. Needless to say, this result is at odds with the fantasy that merely having enough people get sick would solve the Covid problem eventually.Moreover, the study data also suggests that those who got asymptomatic cases had their antibody levels fall off faster than those who had more serious cases.These results are an early warning that antibody-based vaccines will only offer months of protection. Mind you, antibodies aren’t the only defense that the body mounts against Covid. In fact, some scientists were already warning that the focus by most Covid vaccine developers on antibody responses was misguided, and targeting T-cells was a safer bet. For instance, from Berkeley News last month, summarizing a paper in Vaccine: A better strategy is to take a lesson from one of the world’s best vaccines, the 82-year-old yellow fever vaccine, which stimulates a long-lasting, protective T-cell response. T-cells are immune cells that surveil the body continuously for decades, ready to react quickly if the yellow fever virus is detected again. “We know what really good vaccines look like for viral infections,” Hellerstein said. “While we are doing phase 2 trials, we need to look at the detailed response of T-cells, not just antibodies, and correlate these responses with who does well or not over the next several months. Then, I think, we will have a good sense of the laboratory features of vaccines that work. If we do that, we should be able to pick good ones.” Needless to say, the press reports on the so-called Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission findings from the Imperial College were sober. Some argued that the survey was less than ideal by not repeatedly testing the same individuals, but the results were so marked over a large population that it seems unlikely that the general conclusion is invalid. The researchers tested groups of 100,000 each round, chosen at random, from 314 “local authorities”. The first test period, from June 20 to July 13, found that 6.6% of the subjects had Covid 19 antibodies. The latest test, from September 15 to September 28, showed the level had dropped to 4.4%.
Just Some More Gibberish on Covid – “Of the 10 states with the highest rates of new coronavirus cases per capita according to a White House Coronavirus Task Force report this month, seven do not require residents to wear masks. Seven of 10 reside in the South and the other three are South and North Dakota and Wisconsin. Illinois is the only non-western or southern state in the next 10 states. Huffpost; In North Dakota, which now leads the nation in new coronavirus cases per capita, Republican Gov. Doug Burgum has refused to implement a mask mandate stating he prefers a “light touch of government.” Last week (10/19/20), Fargo became the first city in the state to institute a mask mandate after months of rising infections. Overwhelmed by the increase in cases, state health officials are now asking residents to conduct their own contact tracing if they test positive.”And what about younger people not dying at the same rate as older people? This morning in my email box was a briefing by The Health Care Cost Institute, The Impact of COVID-19 on Years of Life Lost. If you think being under 65 means contracting Covid is the same as catching a bad cold, guess again.” Summary: Since April, 1.9 million excess years of life have been lost and 13% above historical average. Over the course of the pandemic, we found age and sex contributions to excess YLL have shifted. Deaths among adults 65 and older accounted for 80% of excess YLL in April but only 36% of excess YLL in June. Since April, working age adults 20-64 have accounted for 47% of excess YLL, and males 20 to 64 have contributed 34%.While most COVID deaths are individuals over the age of 65, COVID is also responsible for a significant share of deaths in other age groups. According to the Centers for Disease Control, about10% of all deaths among older adults from February 2020 to August 2020 have been due to COVID-19. In that same period, COVID also caused about 9% of deaths among those ages 45-64 and 5% of deaths among those 25-44 (CDC).The personal, social, and economic impacts of premature death can be difficult to quantify. Excess death rates provide a measure of the current burden of disease but cannot capture the long-term impact that, say, the death of a 40-year old married person with 3 children will have. Years of Life Lost (YLL) is a measure that captures both the immediate tragedy while also providing insight into the longer-term impacts of premature death on families, communities, and the economy. The calculation determines the number of forgone years that could have been spent contributing to society in roles such as spouses, parents, community members, and employees. For example, if a person dies at age 50, and life expectancy at age 50 is more 25 years, then the YLL is 25. In contrast, if a person dies at age 80 and life expectancy at 80 is 2 more years, then YLL is 2.” An aside, if you are wondering why the Social Security Trust Fund has improved; Covid death rate is one clear answer to its improvement. On Tuesday of this week, the US went past 9 million cases contracted. By November 3rd, the US should go past 240,000 deaths.
Masks Are a Distraction From the Pandemic Reality – WSJ — A hallmark of Covid-19 pandemic policy has been the failure of political leaders and health officials to anticipate the unintended consequences of their actions. This tendency has haunted many decisions, from lockdowns that triggered enormous unemployment and increased alcohol and drug abuse, to school closures that are widening educational disparities between rich and poor families. Mask mandates may also have unintended consequences that outweigh the benefits.The public assumes that research performed since the beginning of the pandemic supports mask mandates. Policy makers and the media point to low-quality evidence, such as a study of Covid-19 positive hairstylists in Missouri or a Georgia summer camp with an outbreak. These anecdotes, while valuable, tell us nothing about the experience of other hairdressers or other summer camps that adopted similar or different masking practices. Also low-quality evidence: Videos of droplets spreading through air as people talk, a well-intended line of research that has stoked fears about regular human interactions. Rather, the highest-quality evidence so far is studies like the one published in June in Health Affairs, which found that U.S. states instituting mask mandates had a 2% reduction in growth rates of Covid-19 compared with states without these mandates. Because respiratory virus spread is exponential, modest reductions can translate into large differences over time. But these shifts in trajectory are distinct from the notion that mandating masks will bring the pandemic to an end. Based on evidence around the world, it should be clear that mask mandates won’t extinguish the virus.The most reasonable conclusion from the available scientific evidence is that community mask mandates have – at most – a small effect on the course of the pandemic. But you wouldn’t know that from watching cable news or sitting next to a mother being forced off an airplane because her small children aren’t able to keep a mask on.While mask-wearing has often been invoked in explanations for rising or falling Covid-19 case counts, the reality is that these trends reflect a basic human need to interact with one another. Claims that low mask compliance is responsible for rising case counts are also not supported by Gallup data, which show that the percentage of Americans reporting wearing masks has been high and relatively stable since June. Health officials and political leaders have assigned mask mandates a gravity unsupported by empirical research.
Utah’s hospitals prepare to ration care as a record number of coronavirus patients flood their ICUs -With new coronavirus cases shattering records on a daily basis, Utah’s hospitals are expected to begin rationing care in a week or two.That’s the prediction of Greg Bell, president of the Utah Hospital Association, who said administrators of the state’s hospitals confronted Gov. Gary Herbert on Thursday with a grim list: Criteria they propose doctors should use if they are forced to decide which patients can stay in overcrowded intensive care units.Under the criteria, which would require Herbert’s approval, patients who are getting worse despite receiving intensive care would be moved out first. In the event that two patients’ conditions are equal, the young get priority over the old, since older patients are more likely to die.’We told him, ‘It looks like we’re going to have to request those be activated if this trend continues,'” Bell recounted, “‘and we see no reason why it won’t.'”Hospitalizations normally rise after the number of new cases increases, and Utah repeatedly set new records for daily case totals last week. At least two Utah hospitals have opened overflow ICUsthis month. The state’s hospitals can shift patients around to free up bed space, Bell said, and the state has long planned to open a field hospital at the Mountain America Expo Center in Sandy if necessary. But one of the defining features of intensive care is access to doctors and nurses with specialty training – and opening new beds does not mean those health care workers can staff them. Bell said it’s now all but inevitable that hospitals will need to enact their triage protocols, known as “crisis standards of care.””I haven’t said, ‘It’s gonna happen’ – until [Thursday] night,” Bell said. “I told the governor, ‘It’s gonna happen. We’re going to be back here asking for crisis standards.’ “
Utah governor said crowded hospitals ‘should cause us all alarm,’ as state breaks record for new cases –Gov. Gary Herbert warned that as the state experiences record-high coronavirus hospitalizations and case counts continue to climb, the health care system is at or near capacity. “It should cause us all alarm,” Herbert said, warning that “our hospitals are starting to fill up.”The Utah Department of Health reported 1,543 new coronavirus cases on Thursday and 301 patients concurrently admitted to hospitals. On average, 296 patients have been receiving treatment in Utah hospitals each day for the past week – a record high. “For the first time as a physician, I’m scared to see what’s to come,” Eddie Stenehjem, infectious disease medical director for Intermountain Healthcare, said during Herbert’s monthly PBS Utah news conference. “I’m scared about the next few months that we will endure here in Utah unless something changes.”More than 700 Utahns have been reported hospitalized for coronavirus in the past two weeks – the highest number of any 14-day stretch since the pandemic began. In total, 4,880 patients have been hospitalized in Utah for COVID-19, an increase of 73 from Wednesday. State epidemiologist Dr. Angela Dunn said the state’s health care providers are exhausted, the public health system is strained and Utahns are afraid. “I just, I don’t know what to do any more,” Dunn said, shaking her head in exasperation. “I’m really not trying to scare anyone. I’m just trying to inform you of what’s going on and give you the facts of where we are in this pandemic.”Stenehjem described hospital floors filled with COVID-19 patients who are suffering and lonely, cut off from the comfort of their family and friends. Many of them won’t survive the disease, he said, and some of those who do will grapple with the chronic conditions that the infection can leave behind.”I wish I could take all of you with me on these rounds,” he told reporters. “These rounds teach you the respect you need for this virus.”
Pine Ridge Reservation in South Dakota going into lockdown due to COVID-19 (AP) – The Oglala Sioux Tribe is locking down the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation on Friday, in response to a surging number of COVID-19 cases in the state. The lockdown begins at 10 p.m. and lasts until 6 a.m. Oct. 30. During that time, all non-critical travel is barred. The tribe said non-essential businesses should close to the public, and travel to non-essential work to or from the reservation should stop. The lockdown comes as the state surpassed 9,000 active coronavirus cases on Thursday and reported an all-time high of 973 new cases in one day. Thursday’s numbers also matched a record high of 14 deaths in one day.
Texas governor requests use of El Paso-area military hospital for non-COVID-19 patients as cases surge -Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Saturday requested to use a medical center at Fort Bliss for non-COVID-19 patients as coronavirus cases surge in the El Paso area. The request comes as COVID-19 cases have been increasing throughout Texas and the country.Abbott said Saturday that he had spoken to Dr. Robert Kadlec, assistant secretary for preparedness and response at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, to request use of William Beaumont Army Medical Center to free up beds at the region’s hospitals, according to CBS El Paso affiliate KDBC-TV.Officials with the University Medical Center of El Paso said Saturday they are working to coordinate airlifting patients requiring critical care to other hospitals in the state. This will be a strictly voluntary decision by the patients and arrangements will be made to bring all patients home to El Paso, KDBC reported. El Paso officials said 1,216 new COVID-19 cases were reported on Saturday, for a total of 10,911 active cases and 38,554 cumulative cases.El Paso officials said Saturday one person died, a woman in her 40s with underlying health conditions. There have been 572 deaths in El Paso due to COVID-19 since the pandemic began. As of Saturday, there were 715 people hospitalized in El Paso County due to COVID-19, including 199 in intensive care and 85 on ventilators.
New York surpasses half a million COVID-19 cases |- New York has reported more than half a million COVID-19 cases, becoming the fourth state in the U.S. to pass the bleak milestone after California, Florida and Texas.Reuters reported that New York has had 80 percent more cases in the last month than the preceding month and recorded over 2,000 in a single day twice recently. However, these numbers are far from the state’s record on April 10 when 12,847 cases were recorded.New York has reported more deaths – 33,000 – than any other state and has the second highest number of deaths per capita. Neighboring state New Jersey has had the most deaths more capita. Nearby interconnected states such as Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Hampshire have seen twice as many cases in the past four weeks than they did in the four weeks before, according to Reuters. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has taken a hardline stance in terms of limiting gathering sizes. He has released new mandates shutting down non-essential businesses in red zones and limiting the size of religious congregations, drawing the ire of business owners and religious leaders alike. New Yorkers have begun to prepare for the second wave of coronavirus cases, as The New York Times reports that families have begun stockpiling medical supplies and the parents of over half of New York’s school children are choosing to keep them at home until at least November.
U.S. Coronavirus Cases Near 84,000 for Second Day in a Row – The U.S. added nearly 84,000 coronavirus cases for the second-straight day, with new infections coming in barely below the daily record set the previous day. Saturday’s total of 83,718 new cases marks the second-highest single-day count after the record 83,757 infections logged Friday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. has reported nearly 8.58 million infections in total, with the death toll nearing 225,000. Epidemiologists anticipated an increase of cases in the fall as cooler weather brings Americans indoors, where there is a higher risk of transmission. But this surge is coming earlier than many expected.From September to October, Covid-19 cases have risen in all regions, but the rise has been particularly acute in the Midwest and the Rocky Mountains. At least seven states reported record one-day totals of new infections on Saturday. Illinois logged more than 6,100 cases, while Michigan reported nearly 3,500. Ohio recorded more than 2,800 infections, while Colorado and Oklahoma each reported more than 1,820 cases. New Mexico and Alaska also reported record one-day tallies.Similar to the surges the country saw in the spring and summer, the rising number of cases nationally has been accompanied by an uptick in hospitalizations. Hospitalizations in the U.S. approached 42,000 on Saturday, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project. It was the fourth straight day with more than 40,000 Covid-19 patients in hospitals.From September to October, there has been a big rise in new Covid-19 cases in several states, as well as a rise in hospitalizations resulting from the virus.Epidemiologists and public-health researchers have said a number of factors, from pandemic fatigue to the return of college students to campuses and more social gatherings, are contributing to the latest rise in U.S. cases. The recent increases are affecting broader swaths of the U.S. than the spring and summer surges, when outbreaks were heavily concentrated in a handful of states. Cases of Covid-19 are now growing both in places that have long had a high prevalence of the new coronavirus as well as new, less populous parts of the country that haven’t yet experienced it.
Czechs Impose Curfew; Warnings in U.S. Midwest: Virus Update – The Czech Republic imposed a nationwide curfew starting at 9 p.m. as of Wednesday to stem the record spread of the coronavirus. Retailers, with the exemption of pharmacies and petrol stations, must be closed on Sundays and after 8 p.m. on other days. The government also said that all employees in public and private sectors should work from home when possible. Illinois’s Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and intensive care use continue to increase and without a turnaround the state is on the path toward more than 11,000 virus deaths this year, Ngozi Ezike, the head of the department of public health, said at a press conference Monday. The state has reported 378,985 cases and 9,522 Covid-19 deaths. Its 7-day rolling positivity rate has climbed to 6.3%.”We have got to reverse the trend and slow the spread,” Governor J.B. Pritzker said at a daily press conference focused on Covid-19. He and Ezike have continued to push measures including social distancing, masks and washing hands to curb the statewide resurgence in cases and have expressed concerns about gatherings during the upcoming holiday season. Missouri, Kentucky, Utah, and South Dakota will be the next states to get “surge” virus testing sites as Covid-19 cases in the U.S. rise and federal officials push for “smart testing” strategies.Officials set up federal testing sites last week in North Carolina and Wisconsin and are ready to deploy eight more sites once they get states’ approvals, Brett Giroir, an assistant health secretary leading the administration’s testing efforts, told reporters Monday. He encouraged states to use rapid antigen tests to test those may not yet show symptoms. “We have to keep on with our testing ecosystem,” Giroir said, “particularly testing potentially asymptomatic infected individuals. There is no reason to believe that the viral load is any less” with asymptomatic people, he said.Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, “painted a pretty stark picture” of the dangers associated with rising cases in the Midwest during a weekend visit to Minnesota, Governor Tim Walz told reporters Monday. “She couldn’t have been clearer,” the Democratic governor said. “Her message was this: cases are rising across the upper Midwest and Minnesota is no exception. The infection rates in the upper Midwest, and she specifically stated on our eastern and western borders, are the highest infection rates on the planet right now.” Walz said Birx told him Minnesota and Illinois have the capacity to reverse the disease’s spread if they successfully impose mitigation strategies such as face-mask mandates and capacity limits at restaurants. Birx said other states are “going to burn, and it’s going to burn hot,” Walz said, without naming those areas.
Covid hospitalizations rising in 36 states as U.S. hits another record for average new cases – The average number of new daily cases of the coronavirus in the United States hit another record on Monday as 36 states reported worrying rises in the number of hospitalized patients. The average number of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 over the past seven days rose by at least 5% in 36 states as of Monday, according to a CNBC analysis of data from the Covid Tracking Project. Hospitalizations lag behind cases as it takes time for people to get diagnosed and become sick enough to require medical attention. However, epidemiologists point to hospitalizations as a more telling indicator of the severity of an outbreak than new cases, which can fluctuate based on testing. In Illinois, where Gov. J.B. Pritzker announced new business restrictions last week in four counties and Chicago, 2,638 people were hospitalized with Covid-19 as of Monday, according to data compiled by Covid Tracking Project, which tracks testing, hospitalization and other data on the outbreak. It’s run by journalists at The Atlantic. That pushed their seven-day average up over 2,480, a more than 24% increase compared with a week ago, according to CNBC’s analysis. In Texas, El Paso County Judge Ricardo Samaniego issued a curfew on Sunday to protect “overwhelmed and exhausted” hospitals and workers. More than 5,200 people there were in hospitals with Covid-19 on Monday, Covid Tracking Project’s data shows. The Lone Star state has had an average of about 4,970 Covid-19 patients in hospitals on any given day over the past week, up more than 18% compared with the previous week. “I think that the community and the country needs to realize that this is just the beginning of what could be a dark and tragic time over the next four to six weeks,” Dr. Ogechika Alozie, chief medical officer of Del Sol Medical Center in El Paso, told CNBC’s Shep Smith on Monday. The average number of hospitalized patients over the past seven days declined by 5% or more in just four states: Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas and Maine, according to CNBC’s analysis. “This is a harbinger of a very tough winter that’s coming,” Dr. Bill Schaffner, an epidemiologist at Vanderbilt University, said in a phone interview. “I think hospitals are going to be very, very stressed this fall and winter.” While the number of hospitalized patients steadily marches upward, daily new cases skyrocket. Over the past seven days, the U.S. reported an average of 69,967 new cases every day, the highest seven-day average recorded yet, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins University data. The seven-day average is up more than 19% compared with a week ago, according to CNBC’s analysis. At the same time, the U.S. is testing more people than ever, according to the Covid Tracking Project. However, more testing cannot account for the rise in cases, health officials say, because the percent of tests that are positive has increased as well. About 6.3% of tests were positive on Monday based on a seven-day average, according to Johns Hopkins, up from 5.3% a week earlier.
October 26 COVID-19 Test Results; New US Record 7-Day Average Cases –The US is now mostly reporting 700 thousand to 1 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections (probably close to 1%), so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).There were 1,043,423 test results reported over the last 24 hours.There were 62,315 positive tests. Almost 18,500 Americans deaths from COVID have been reported in October. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 6.0% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported. The dashed line is the July high.Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high – see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%.This is a new record 7-day average for the USA.
US sets a new record for average daily coronavirus cases | Meadows on pandemic response: ‘We’re not going to control it’ –Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are rising sharply even as President Trump continues to downplay the pandemic. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows said the administration has effectively given up on controlling the spread of the coronavirus, and more cities have begun reimposing restrictions. The US set a new record for average daily coronavirus cases The average new cases per day over a seven-day period was 68,954 on Sunday, according to the Covid Tracking Project, beating the previous record of 66,844 set on July 23. Big picture: The country has now passed the July peak, and there is no end in sight as the weather gets colder and more activity moves indoors, where the virus spreads more easily. It’s not just more testing: The president blamed the rise in cases on an increase in testing in a tweet Monday. However, hospitalizations are also rising, a sign that the rise in cases is not just because of more testing. There are more than 41,000 people hospitalized with coronavirus, up from around 30,000 at the end of September. The percentage of tests coming back positive is also rising, another sign of the rising spread of the virus. It is now at about 6 percent nationally and climbing, according to Johns Hopkins University data. Read more here. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows attempted to clarify his remarks indicating that the Trump administration has given up on fighting the spread of the coronavirus, but then doubled down on them. “We’re going to defeat the virus; we’re not going to control it,” Meadows told reporters outside the White House. “We will try to contain it as best we can, but … we need to make sure that we have therapeutics and vaccines.” Meadows was seeking to defend comments he made Sunday, when he told CNN “we’re not going to control the pandemic,” an extraordinary admission that the administration has essentially given up on fighting the spread of the coronavirus. The comment from Meadows runs counter to the rosy campaign trail message from President Trump that the country is “rounding the turn” on the pandemic, that the media is overreacting, and that there will soon be vaccines and therapeutics widely available.
Coronavirus dashboard for October 27: The EU is now worse than the US (9 graphs) Total US confirmed infections: 8,777,432*
Average US infections last 7 days: 71,833 (new record high)
Total US deaths: 226,695
Average US deaths last 7 days: 806 (vs. recent low of 689 11 days ago)
*I suspect the real number is about 15,000,000, or 4.5% of the total US population
The pandemic is once again raging out of control in parts of the country, and it is likely to be far worse over the winter months. Let’s start today by comparing the US with the EU countries plus Canada. While in Canada the virus is still under control, on average, the EU is seeing nearly twice as many daily infections per capita as the United States:The EU is at parity with the US now in terms of deaths, and that can be expected to rise further as well: Here are new infections and deaths per capita for the US as a whole: Although the infection rate is worse than ever, because of either a change in the demographics of those infected (younger vs. old people) and/or better medical treatments, the death rate is nowhere near what it was early in the pandemic. The two worst States for both infections and deaths are North and South Dakota, shown below: Again, the death rate is nowhere near that of NY or NJ early in the pandemic. Turning to the bottom 10 US jurisdictions, the infection rate has recently been rising in all of them except for some Pacific islands and the three States of northern New England: The same is true of the bottom 10 US jurisdictions for deaths – although again this is not a “bad” death rate compared with earlier in the pandemic, or compared to other States and countries: Finally, New York is still in the bottom 10 for per capita infections, and California just above – but both show recent increases: In terms of deaths, New York is still doing well, and California is still slowly declining – although that may change with the recent uptick in infections there:
Hospitalizations Surge in Upper Midwest – WSJ.com – The number of people now hospitalized for Covid-19 in the U.S. has jumped 46% since the beginning of October, with a 12% rise in the last week alone, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project. Some 45,045 people are hospitalized across the U.S., a high not seen since mid-August. Between Oct. 1 and Oct. 28, hospitalizations have more than doubled in North Dakota, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. For the same time period, hospitalizations are up 77% in both Texas and New York.A number of factors are fueling the virus’s spread across the U.S.More rural communities that evaded surges in cases in the early months of the pandemic have been hit this fall.The U.S. reported nearly 79,000 new coronavirus cases for Wednesday, the second day in a row the total has come in over 70,000, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. In total, the nation has recorded more than 8.9 million confirmed coronavirus cases.Illinois reported more than 6,100 new cases for Wednesday, just below a record set Saturday. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Virginia also reported totals that were the second-highest since the pandemic began, according to Johns Hopkins data. The peaks in hospitalizations for earlier surges across the U.S. was about 58,000 people. The U.S. had a record number of reported cases on Wednesday, and typically Thursday through Saturday are peak days of the week, said Jeffrey Shaman, professor of environmental sciences at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health.”This is the fall surge we have been worried about – we’ve had record high numbers of cases reported, and hospitalizations are beginning to climb,” said Dr. Shaman. “As the weather gets colder, drier and with less sunlight, people spend more time indoors and the virus may remain viable longer once expelled from an infectious host.””I think this could be a very rough fall through winter,” he said. The increases in cases and hospitalizations are pushing some states and cities to step up restrictions on business, social and schooling activities.Nearly the entire state of Illinois has reintroduced mitigation efforts to stop the resurgence, with eight of the state’s 11 regions enforcing increased limitations for business, dining and social gatherings. Starting on Friday and in response to a growing positivity rate, Chicago restaurants will suspend indoor dining at the city’s restaurants and limit the size of gatherings to 25 people.In Denver, where the positivity rate is now over 7%, local officials said this week that restaurants and places of worship will be limited to 25% capacity, with similar limitations on workplaces and retail establishments. Denver public schools are also rolling back in-person learning for some elementary-age students.This week, Idaho’s Gov. Brad Little signed an order limiting the size of gatherings and mandating the use of facial coverings in long-term care facilities. And new restrictions are expected to be announced on Friday for Rhode Island, according to Gov. Gina Raimondo.
More than 40 states are reporting an increase in Covid-19 cases and many in the Midwest are seeing record hospitalizations – The US is adding an average of more than 74,000 new Covid-19 cases to the national total every day — a record high in a pandemic that experts say is likely to worsen. The seven-day average is part of a fall surge that has brought the national case count to more than 8.8 million, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Four of the five highest number of cases in a single day were recorded in the last seven days, with the top two reported on Friday and Saturday. And 41 states are reporting at least 10% more cases compared to the week before. When it comes to the climbing metric, the US is “not in a good place,” director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci said during a virtual Q&A on Wednesday. Health experts have pushed measures against the virus to bring the baseline of infections down before colder months drove them back up. But rising records of cases and hospitalizations are making up “a bad recipe for a tough time ahead,” Fauci said. In the Midwest, residents are being impacted by the rising cases with spiking rates of hospitalizations. Indiana and Wisconsin reported their peak levels of coronavirus hospitalizations. And Kansas saw the most ICU hospitalizations of the virus in one day, the same day the state surpassed 1,000 deaths since the pandemic began. “Each one of these Kansans was someone’s child, parent, or grandparent,” Gov. Laura Kelly said in a release. “They were part of a community.” On Wednesday, 13 states reported more hospitalization records, according to the Covid Tracking Project. Mask mandates may be a key strategy to lowering rates of hospitalization, according to the findings of a study from Vanderbilt School of Medicine. In hospitals where more than 75% of the patients came from counties that required masks, rates of hospitalizations did not rise between July and October, while hospitals with fewer than 25% of patients from those counties saw an increase over 200%. Other mitigation factors likely came into play, as areas with mask requirements are more likely to have residents who follow other mitigation strategies, the authors wrote.
Ohio adds 3,845 new COVID-19 cases, marking another record – Ohio once again shattered its daily record for new coronavirus cases on Friday as 3,845 more residents tested positive. Friday’s new cases were 7.1% higher than the previous record of 3,590 new cases set Thursday, state Department of Health data shows. It marks the second time Ohio’s newly reported cases have exceeded 3,000 a day and the 15th day above 2,000 cases. The new cases Friday also were 1,622 more than the three-week daily average of 2,223 new cases, according to the state health department. A total 1,629 Ohioans remained hospitalized with COVID-19 as of Friday, which is the highest number since the pandemic began in March. The total hospitalized on Friday represents a 6.1% increase, data shows. Of those 1,629 Ohioans in the hospital with coronavirus, 427 are in intensive care units and 226 are on ventilators, according to the state. Contributing to the new hospital record total, 169 more Ohioans were hospitalized Friday, which is above a three-week average of 127 new hospitalizations a day. Another 25 people were admitted to ICUs, which is above a three-week average of 20 new admissions a day, according to the state. The average rate at which Ohioans tested positive for the virus over the previous seven days rose to 6.2% on Wednesday, the most recent day for which data is available. July 25 was the last time Ohio’s seven-day positive test rate was at 6.2%, according to the state. It was at its lowest of 2.7% on Sept. 24. So far, more than 4.4 million COVID-19 tests have been administered across the state. As Ohio’s cases and the positive test rate continue to climb, it’s unlikely the state is anywhere near its peak in the current COVID-19 wave, said Dr. Joseph Gastaldo, medical director of infectious diseases for OhioHealth. With fall and winter holidays fast approaching and people moving indoors because of cold weather, cases will probably continue to increase for a while, Gastaldo said. It’s likely, he said, that Ohio’s new cases and positive test rate won’t peak until after the holidays. “It really depends on what the governor does and whether people are adhering to mitigation policies…”
US Coronavirus Cases Surpass 9 Million With No End in Sight – Covid-19 cases are rapidly increasing in more than 20 states in a dangerous surge one governor described as an “urgent crisis.”The United States, which reported its first known coronavirus case in Washington State 282 days ago, surpassed nine million total infections on Thursday, including more than half a million in the past week, as Covid-19 spiraled out of control in the lead-up to Election Day.Across the country, alarming signs suggested the worst was yet to come: The nation reported more cases on Thursday – at least 86,600 – than on any other single day. More than 20 states reported more cases over the past week than at any time during the pandemic. Patients were sent to field hospitals in El Paso and the Milwaukee suburbs. Growing outbreaks led to new restrictions on businesses in Chicago. Exactly zero states reported sustained declines in cases.”There is no way to sugarcoat it – we are facing an urgent crisis and there is an imminent risk to you, your family members, your friends, your neighbors,” said Gov. Tony Evers of Wisconsin, where hospitals have been strained, case numbers have exploded and more than 200 coronavirus deaths have been announced in the past week.With the presidential election days away, the country is now averaging more than 75,000 new cases daily, the worst stretch of the pandemic by that measure. Deaths, which lag behind cases, remain far below their spring levels but have ticked upward to about 780 each day. More cases have been identified in the United States than in any other country, though some nations have higher per capita infection rates.”This surge is larger than any other wave or surges that we’ve seen yet,” said Amanda Simanek, an epidemiologist at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee school of public health, who said she was especially worried to see case numbers spiking just as colder weather forces more people indoors, where the virus can spread easily. “This is the pattern that may continue to happen if we don’t suppress the infection down to levels that are manageable.”Recent data is almost uniformly grim.Coronavirus cases have surged in Wisconsin in October, straining hospitals in Milwaukee and other cities.Credit…Lauren Justice for The New York TimesTwenty-one states added more cases in the seven-day period ending Wednesday than in any other seven-day stretch of the pandemic. In parts of Idaho and Kansas, officials have warned that few hospital beds remained. In North Dakota, where more than 5 percent of the population has now tested positive, case numbers continue to soar, with a single-day record of more than 1,200 new infections on Thursday. As the country reached nine million cases, experts lamented opportunities lost that might have limited the spread.”I think it’s surprising how quickly it happened,” said Dr. Larry Chang, an infectious-disease expert at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. “I thought we would do a better job as a country getting organized and coming up with evidence-based national plans for mitigating this epidemic. So, while I’m not surprised we reached this number, it happened a lot faster than I thought it would.”
U.S. reports world record of more than 100,000 COVID-19 cases in single day (Reuters) – The United States set a new all-time high for coronavirus cases confirmed in a single 24-hour period on Friday, reporting just over 100,000 new infections to surpass the record total of 91,000 posted a day earlier, according to a Reuters tally. The daily caseload of 100,233 is also a world record for the global pandemic, surpassing the 97,894 cases reported by India on a single day in September. Five times over past ten days, the United States has exceeded its previous single-day record of 77,299 cases registered in July. The number of daily infections reported during past two days indicates that the nation is now reporting more than one new case every second. The spike comes just four days ahead of the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday. The COVID-19 pandemic, which has killed nearly 230,000 people in the United States, has dominated the final stretch of the campaign. The United States crossed 9 million cumulative cases on Friday, representing nearly 3% of the population, according to a Reuters tally of publicly reported data. On Friday, 16 U.S. states reported their highest one-day coronavirus infections while thirteen states were at record levels of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. So far in October, 31 states have set records for increases in new cases, including five considered key in the Nov. 3 presidential election: Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. .
U.S. coronavirus cases cross nine million: Reuters tally (Reuters) – U.S. coronavirus cases crossed the 9 million mark on Friday, rising by 1 million in two weeks as the world’s worst-affected country faces a resurgence in the pandemic just ahead of elections. Cases are rising faster than ever before. The previous record for 1 million new cases was during a surge in infection in July and August – when it took 16 days. Now the country has recorded over 1 million cases in 14 days with no sign of the outbreak slowing. (Graphic: tmsnrt.rs/3jI3SCG) On Thursday, the United States reported a record 91,254 new cases. On average, over 77,000 cases are being reported every day in the last seven days, double the level seen two months ago. Hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients are hitting records in 21 out of 50 states. Deaths are also trending higher and have reached nearly 230,000. For every 10,000 people in the United States, over 272 coronavirus cases have been reported and about seven people have died, according to a Reuters analysis. In Europe there have been 127 cases and four deaths per 10,000 residents. Texas has surpassed California as the worst-affected state in the United States, with Florida in third place. Global coronavirus cases rose by more than 500,000 for the first time on Wednesday, a record one-day increase as countries across the Northern Hemisphere reported daily spikes. Many governments have started taking stronger measures to bring the spread of the virus under control. More than a half million lives could be lost to COVID-19 across the United States by the end of February, according to researchers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). U.S. President Donald Trump, who is seeking a second term on Tuesday, has been saying for weeks that the country is “rounding the turn,” even as new cases and hospitalizations soar. The United States performed 7.7 million coronavirus tests last week, of which 6.3% came back positive, compared with 5.4% the prior week, according to data from The COVID Tracking Project, a volunteer-run effort to track the outbreak. South Dakota led the nation with the highest positive test rate at 40%, followed by Idaho at 34% and Wyoming at 29%. A total of 14 states had a positive test rate of over 10%. According to a Reuters analysis, the South region comprises nearly 44% of all the cases in the United States, with nearly 4 million cases in the region alone, followed by the Midwest, West and Northeast.
18 Trump rallies have led to 30,000 COVID-19 cases: Stanford University study – A new study from Stanford University found that 18 of President Trump’s campaign rallies have led to over 30,000 confirmed coronavirus cases and likely led to over 700 deaths. Researchers examined rallies held between June 20 and Sept. 22, 2020, only three of which were held indoors. The researchers then compared spread of the virus in the counties that held the rallies to counties that were on similar case trajectories before the rallies occurred. The authors concluded that the rallies increased subsequent cases of COVID-19 by over 250 infections per 100,000 residents. They found that the events led to over 30,000 new cases in the country and likely resulted in over 700 deaths, but recognized that the deaths were “not necessarily among attendees.” “Our analysis strongly supports the warnings and recommendations of public health officials concerning the risk of COVID-19 transmission at large group gatherings, particularly when the degree of compliance with guidelines concerning the use of masks and social distancing is low,” the authors wrote in the paper. “The communities in which Trump rallies took place paid a high price in terms of disease and death. The study was published to preprint platform SSRN on Friday. In a statement to The Hill, the Trump campaign deputy national press secretary Courtney Parella said that, “Americans have the right to gather under the First Amendment to hear from the President of the United States.” ‘We take strong precautions for our campaign events, requiring every attendee to have their temperature checked, providing masks, they’re instructed to wear, and ensuring access to plenty of hand sanitizer,” Parella said. “We also have signs at our events instructing attendees to wear their masks.” Biden campaign spokesperson Andrew Bates said in a statement to The Hill that Trump is “costing hundreds of lives and sparking thousands of cases with super spreader rallies that only serve his own ego.” The study comes as the U.S. set a new single-day record for coronavirus cases on Friday, logging 97,080 new cases according to COVID Tracking Project, shattering the previous record of 88,521 on set Thursday. The president, however, has repeatedly dismissed the new surge in cases, claiming that the nation is “rounding the turn” on the pandemic. He has also blamed the media for the intense focus on COVID-19.
First, coronavirus infections increased. Then, hospitalizations. Now, deaths are on the rise. – The Washington Post – Coronavirus infections soared this week to record levels, hospitalizations are up in almost every state, and now – predictably, but slowly – deaths are rising, too. The nation passed another milestone Friday with 9 million confirmed cases since the start of the pandemic, including more than 98,000 new cases, a daily record. More than 1,000 deaths in the United States from the novel coronavirus were reported each day Wednesday and Thursday, according to health data analyzed by The Washington Post, continuing an upward trend that began two weeks ago. All signs indicate that this isn’t a blip but rather a reflection of a massive surge in infections that, without a dramatic effort to reverse the trend, will drive up the death toll for weeks to come. At least 229,000 people in the United States have died of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. But the mortality numbers have become political fodder on the campaign trail. Depending on whom you listen to, the coronavirus just isn’t that deadly anymore. Or it’s killing people in droves. The truth is that mortality rates have improved, but the accelerating spread of the virus is driving up the absolute numbers of deaths. Doctors have reported better outcomes thanks to improved techniques for treating patients and the use of the steroid dexamethasone and the antiviral remdesivir. In a widely reported study, researchers at NYU Langone Health found that the death rate among more than 5,000 patients in the system’s three hospitals dropped from 25.6 percent in March to 7.6 percent in August.Still, this remains a potentially deadly disease, and a large proportion of the population is still vulnerable to infection. With the number of infections hitting daily records, there is reason to expect that deaths will keeping rising until the spread of the virus is contained. Deaths lag infections by many weeks. In hard-hit North Dakota, daily infections have doubled since the end of September, while the average number of deaths from covid-19 is up 50 percent. In Indiana, cases are up 150 percent in that time, and deaths are up 93 percent.In Wisconsin, cases began spiking in early September, and deaths began to rise sharply at the end of the month. Of the 2,029 deaths there from the pandemic, more than half have occurred since Sept. 25. President Trump and his son Donald Trump Jr. have in recent days said there has been an excessive focus on infections rather than deaths, which have not risen as quickly and remain lower than in the early days of the pandemic. “Do you ever notice, they don’t use the word ‘death’? They use the word ‘cases,’ ” the president said Tuesday in Omaha. He brought up his 14-year-old son. “Like, Barron Trump is a case. He has sniffles, he was sniffling. One Kleenex, that’s all he needed, and he was better. But he’s a case.” The younger Trump posted a graph on his Instagram account, based on incomplete Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, that he claimed showed deaths dropping. “Why isn’t the ACTUAL data from the CDC being discussed? . . . [W]hile there have been increases in new cases per week, there has actually been a steady decrease in deaths per week,” Trump Jr. wrote. He echoed that argument in a television interview Thursday on Fox News, saying he asked himself why people weren’t talking about deaths, and deciding, “Oh, because the number is almost nothing. Because we’ve gotten control of this thing, we understand how it works.”
Covid Spikes in Europe, US Before Winter Is Here -Yves Smith — We have said for some time that Covid-19 is in charge, that the state of the economy is much more of a function of perception of risks than of lockdowns. Studies of cellphone data show that on a widespread basis, people started curtailing their movements before lockdowns were imposed earlier this year. In places where restaurants are open for indoor dining, sitdown meals are still way down. Most people are still avoiding air travel despite mounting evidence that it’s not very risky. But the flip side is that we are also seeing, dramatically, that there’s been enough chafing at restrictions to produce alarming rises in Covid infection rates. Those that contend “Not to worry, death rates are lower” need to get a grip: It’s too early to speak with any confidence of death rates from this spike, since deaths usually occur three to four weeks after symptom onset. And if hospitals become overwhelmed (and they are already near capacity in some parts of the US), some will not get great or any care. Having said that, medical professionals do know more than they did six months ago about how to treat serious cases. Evidence is mounting of all sorts of serious Covid impairment, from “long Covid” to heart, kidney, and lung damage, including in the young. It’s distressing to see infection rates spiking in many parts of Europe, including Italy, with its disastrously high Covid-19 toll of the spring, had gotten contagion rates way down. This chart is from the Wall Street Journal: The per capita infection rate in Europe is now higher than in the US, even with our own spike underway. In France, it’s more than three times higher than America’s, too much of a difference to attribute to our lousy testing regime. Not that things are going well here. See for instance Alabama, which looked flatish until the last two days. Most here blame the rise on football games: And worse, infection rates are rising before winter has set in. Winter means both more time inside with people in uncirculated/not well filtered air, and that indoor air is drier, which helps virus transmission. And the most afflicted countries are responding with new curbs. From the Financial Times: Italy said it would introduce the harshest public health restrictions since the end of its first national lockdown in May as new coronavirus cases hit a fresh daily record. Spain announced a nationwide curfew and triggered emergency powers after the country’s infection rate jumped by almost a third over the past week. Spanish prime minister Pedro Sflnchez said the nationwide curfew between 11pm and 6am would be imposed immediately, following requests by 10 of the country’s 17 regions. Over in Sweden, Uppsala has gone into a voluntary lockdown. Belgian whiplash: Meanwhile, Brussels inhabitants went from a few extra restrictions issued by the federal government Friday morning, to an effective standstill, including acur few between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. (effective today), issued by Brussels region premier Rudi Vervoort Saturday afternoon. Sadly, people need to wrap their mind around acting as if Santa has delivered them a lump of coal, even for those whose finances are OK. Plan on tucking in with some favorite holiday cheer, and some good books, movies, and/or music. If you can sit before a fire, even better. Or as a Financial Times reader put it: This is not that hard. Many countries in Asia have shown what needs to be done. Lock down for a month, test and track people methodically, wear masks, and limit mass gatherings. This goes a long way to getting the virus under control … . The insistence of protecting personal freedoms at all costs and ignoring the reality is leading all to pay a far heavier price than is necessary …
Sweden Refuses To Impose New Lockdown Measures, Saying People Have Suffered Enough -Health authorities in Sweden have refused to follow the rest of Europe by imposing new coronavirus lockdown measures on their population, arguing that those beset by loneliness and misery of being isolated have suffered enough. Despite Sweden mirroring other countries on the continent with rising coronavirus infections, the government has held firm in refusing to lockdown its population, weighing the untold misery and health impacts of isolation against the threat of COVID-19. Covid-19 Impact on the Podcast Sector“The elderly, they said, have suffered enough,” writes Fraser Nelson.”They have spent months being advised to avoid public transport, shopping malls and other parts of everyday life. And the result? Loneliness. Misery. This is more than unpleasant: it quickly translates into depression, mental health issues and mortality.“We cannot only think about infection control,” said Lena Hallengren, Sweden’s health minister, “we also need to think about public health.” An important distinction: “focus on Covid to the exclusion of other conditions and you risk lives.”Hallengren’s 21 page report also uncovered a “decline in mental health” that was “likely to worsen the longer the recommendations remain in place,” leading officials to lift lockdown restrictions that previously applied to over-70s.After deciding to take a “herd immunity” approach to COVID-19 at the start of the pandemic, Sweden was roundly condemned for not following the harsh lockdowns imposed by virtually every other major European country. However, as Newsweek acknowledged, Sweden’s COVID-19 death rate is lower than those of Spain, the UK and Italy, countries which all imposed draconian lockdowns.
Where Europe’s Second Wave Is Filling Up Hospitals – NYT (graphics)) Poland has turned its largest stadium into an emergency field hospital. The numbers of Covid-19 patients in Belgium and Britain have doubled in two weeks. And doctors and nurses in the Czech Republic are falling ill at an alarming rate.As new cases of the virus began to increase again across Europe last month, hospitals were initially spared the mass influx of patients they weathered earlier this spring. Some suggested that the virus had become less deadly, or that older, more vulnerable people would be shielded. But a second wave of serious illness is here, new data released on Thursday shows, making it clear that the pandemic is still dangerous and that adherence to control measures over the next few weeks will be crucial in preventing hospitals from becoming overrun for a second time this year. Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Hospital data for Europe includes 21 countries that report daily hospital occupancy data to the ECDC. Germany, the Netherlands and others are omitted. Spring peak is the highest value from March and April, except for Hungary where data collection began in May. Current patients in hospitals reflect the most recent available data.The number of Covid-19 patients in hospitals across the continent is still less than half of the peak in March and April, but it is rising steadily each week, according to data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. People across much of Europe – including larger countries like France, Italy, Poland and Spain – are now more likely to be hospitalized with Covid-19 than those in the United States. Hospitalization rates are a key measure of the pandemic’s severity. The rates rise and fall days or weeks behind the tallies of new infections. But infection figures depend heavily on each country’s testing capacity, while seriously ill people tend to enter hospitals whether they have been tested for the virus or not.Europe’s current wave of infection is due in part to the relative normalcy it experienced this summer. Unlike the United States, where the epidemic rose to a second peak in July and a third peak this month, travelers moved around Europe, college studentsreturned to campus and many large gatherings resumed, all while the virus kept spreading.Now hospitals are scrambling to prepare for an onrush of Covid-19 patients, at a time when bed and intensive care capacity will already be under strain during the winter flu season.In Poland, the government converted the country’s largest stadium into a temporary field hospital with room for 500 patients. Hospitals in France, especially in the Paris area, have started to postpone non-emergency surgeries, while others have called back staff on leave. More than one-fifth of Spain’s intensive care beds are occupied by Covid-19 patients, and in Madrid, that figure is closer to 40 percent.And in the Czech Republic – where the current hospitalization rate surpasses the worst period in Britain – physicians are worried about a shortage of staff. “In some regions, about 10 percent of the medical staff is either already infected or in quarantine,” said Petr Smejkal, the chief of infectious diseases and epidemiology at the Institute of Clinical and Experimental Medicine in Prague.
France Emerges as Covid-19 Epicenter as Cases Surge Across Europe – WSJ – France has emerged as the epicenter of the second wave of coronavirus infections now sweeping much of Europe, causing hospitals to brace for a surge of new patients and pushing the government to consider tough new restrictions in some places. The country saw daily cases top 50,000 over the weekend, while the seven-day average of new daily cases has increased by more than 50% over the past week, reaching 38,278 on Tuesday. That compares with a seven-day average of 69,967 cases in the U.S., whose population is around five times as big. On Tuesday, health authorities reported 523 new deaths, including 235 in nursing homes and other government facilities, the highest total death toll since April. In response, President Emmanuel Macron could implement tough new restrictions to confront Europe’s largest coronavirus outbreak, as previous measures appear to have been insufficient in containing the spread. Earlier this month, French authorities ordered a curfew from 9 p.m. to 6 a.m. in the Paris region and nine other cities. The government is now considering earlier curfews in many parts of the country, as well as weekend lockdowns that would sharply curtail individuals’ movements in virus hot spots such as Paris, effectively confining them to home, according to a close presidential aide. Mr. Macron is meeting with members of his government on Tuesday and Wednesday morning to decide which measures to adopt, the person added. Mr. Macron will address the nation on Wednesday evening. The surge in infections in France comes amid a sharp rise this autumn in much of the Continent, reversing the gains Europe had won by last summer, when draconian, nationwide lockdowns in many European countries pushed infections down to a trickle. Now, European governments are struggling to respond to the second wave, loath to impose new lockdowns that would compound the economic pain the coronavirus pandemic has already inflicted on their countries, but concerned about the steady rise in hospitalizations and deaths. Jean-Francois Delfraissy, a doctor and immunology specialist who leads a scientific board advising the French government on how to tackle the pandemic, said this week that the actual number of new daily cases of infection in France is probably closer to 100,000 a day, and is likely to continue to increase. “The second wave could be worse than the first one,” Dr. Delfraissy said.
France Joins Germany In Reviving Nationwide Lockdown As COVID-19 Cases Soar Across Europe- Live –As expected, French President Emmanuel Macron announced during a briefing Wednesday evening that France would join Germany in announcing a new partial lockdown that would see schools remain open, while curfews, ‘nonessential’ business closures and restrictions on movement return.Per the new restrictions, all bars and restaurants across France will close, a measure that is infuriating the national hospitality industry.Will the announcement, which was telegraphed in advance by leaks to the press, rattle markets on Thursday, leading to a continuation of Wednesday’s market turmoil?The restrictions will endure for at least a month, Macron said.As some Italians take to the streets to protest the most restrictive nationwide measures since the end of the lockdown, Italy has reported another daily record, with 24,991 new cases reported in the last 24 hours on Thursday. They also reported 205 new deaths.One commentator said the numbers mean another lockdown for Italy “just went from possible to likely” as we await an announcement from French President Emmanuel Macron. It’s the second straight daily record for Italy, and the latest in what has been an almost unbroken string of record over the past 2 weeks.The northern region of Lombardy is again one of the hardest-hit areas, reporting 7,758 new cases, while Lazio reported 1,963. ICU patients increased by 126 to 1,536 as hospitalizations soared and the positivity rate was roughly 13%. The number dead increased by 205 to 37,905.Meanwhile, the AP has published a lengthy update on the situation in Europe, which included comments made by EU President von der Leyen after a pan-European meeting on Wednesday. She said Europe is “deep in the second wave” and that “I think that this year’s Christmas will be a different Christmas.”She added that the continent isn’t just dealing with the virus, but also “coronavirus fatigue”.“We’re dealing with the coronavirus- the virus itself – and also corona fatigue,” she said. “That is, people are becoming more and more fed up with the preventive measures.”Deaths have also been on the rise in Europe, with the number dying increasing by 35% over the past week.More than 2 million new confirmed coronavirus cases have been reported globally in the past week, the WHO said, which is the shortest time ever for such a dramatic increase. Of these 46% of the new cases were reported in Europe.
The policy of “herd immunity” pushes Europe’s health care system toward the abyss – The limited measures announced by various European governments following record numbers of new coronavirus cases in multiple countries over the weekend cannot hide the disaster caused by their premature policy of resuming work and reopening schools. On Sunday, records were broken in Italy, France and Germany. There were 21,273 cases of COVID-19 detected in Italy. According to data reported by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for Infectious Diseases, there were 11,176 more cases in Germany than the day before. France recorded 52,010 cases, up from 45,000 the day before. In France, the milestone of one million cases since the beginning of the pandemic has been passed. The number of deaths attributable to the disease reached 116 on Sunday, bringing the total number of deaths since the beginning of the epidemic to 34,761. The test positivity rate continues to rise, reaching 17 percent, up from 16 percent the day before, and only 4.5 percent in early September. Spain reported more than 52,000 new cases this weekend, and a cumulative total of 361.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants diagnosed in the last 14 days. Confirmed cases are increasing across the peninsula and the Balearic Islands. On Friday, 231 additional deaths were recorded, bringing the official death toll to 34,752. The real figure, according to the Spanish press, is more than 55,000 deaths. The World Health Organization (WHO) announced on Saturday that it had recorded a new world record of coronavirus infections for the third consecutive day, with the Northern Hemisphere being particularly affected. According to WHO world statistics, 465,319 cases were confirmed on Saturday, compared to 449,720 on Friday and 437,247 on Thursday. Faced with the chaotic health situation in Europe, measures have been taken in several countries. Italy will close cinemas, theaters, gyms and swimming pools, while bars and restaurants will stop serving after 6 p.m. One of the most affected countries, Belgium, moved its curfew forward to 10 p.m. Cultural and sports activities have been banned since Monday.
With coronavirus exploding in Europe, hospitals calculate how long until they hit capacity – For Germany, the breaking point could come in December. France and Switzerland might crack by mid-November. Belgium could hit its limit by the end of the week. Europe, in the throes of a savage second wave of the pandemic, is on the verge of a medical crisis, with intensive care units quickly filling to the breaking point. Governments are finding that when confronted by the unforgiving reality of an exponentially spreading virus, even vast investments to expand hospital capacity can be washed away in days. Germany, Europe’s best-resourced nation, risks being swamped even after increasing its intensive care beds by a quarter over the summer. Belgium, which had doubled its intensive care capacity, is now preparing for decisions about which needy patient should get a bed. “This huge capacity we’ve built gave a false impression of security. It gave a higher buffer, but ultimately it only represents a week when you’re in an exponential phase,” In retrospect, the warning signs could be seen as early as July, when cases in Europe started ticking up again after the relaxation of spring lockdowns. In absolute terms, the numbers were still tiny. Central European leaders – among the worst hit now, but back then largely untouched – gathered at the end of August for a triumphant conference to discuss the post-pandemic era. But the math for exponential growth is as simple as it is scary. When two coronavirus cases double to four, and four cases double to eight, it doesn’t take long for the numbers to reach the tens of thousands – and beyond. Europe is now feeling the explosion. The continent reported 1.5 million cases over the past week, the highest yet during the pandemic, the World Health Organization’s Europe director, Hans Kluge, told an emergency meeting of health ministers on Thursday. Deaths rose by a third in seven days. Occupancy of intensive care units doubled in 17 days leading up to Oct. 25 in countries tracked by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. “Europe is at the epicenter of this pandemic once again,” Kluge said. A week ago, French intensive care beds were half full. Now, they are more than two-thirds occupied, with more than 3,100 covid-19 patients. When President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday announced a second national lockdown – something he and other European leaders have sought mightily to avoid – he warned that “at this stage, we know that whatever we do, nearly 9,000 patients will be in intensive care by mid-November, which is almost the entirety of French capacities.”
British PM says England will enter into second lock down British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Saturday that England will enter into a second lockdown after the United Kingdom (U.K.) surpassed 1 million coronavirus cases. The U.K.’s health department reported 21,915 cases on Saturday, bringing the nation’s total to 1,011,660 cases since the pandemic began. Johnson was originally expected to announce the measures on Monday, according to the British Times. Before Johnson’s announcement Saturday evening, a senior government official told the news outlet earlier in the day that no final decision had been made yet, but added that “the data is really bad.””We’re seeing COVID-19 rising all over the country and hospitals are struggling to cope. There has been a shift in our position,” the source reportedly said. Under the new lockdown, non-essential shops, leisure and entertainment venues will be closed. Pubs, bars, and restaurants will only be open for takeout and delivery services. People can only leave their homes if they cannot work for home, for education, to get food and essential items, and for outdoor exercise and recreation with that person’s household or with one person for another household. People can also leave for medical reasons and to escape injury or harm, as well as to provide care for vulnerable people. Workplaces can also stay open where people cannot work from home, such as construction or manufacturing jobs. The shutdown will go into effect on Thursday after a vote in Parliament next week, Johnson said, and will remain in effect until the start of December. The prime minister was hesitant to call for another lockdown as the U.K. economy is still recovering from the first lockdown in the spring. The measures come as both France and Germany announced lockdownson Wednesday as Europe experiences another wave of infections. The World Health Organization said on Thursday that Europe had once again become the epicenter of the pandemic. There have been 10 million confirmed cases in the region since the pandemic began, according to the Associated Press.
Africa’s confirmed COVID-19 cases pass 1.7 million – The number of confirmed cases in the African continent has reached 1,707,741, the Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said on Sunday. The Africa CDC said in a statement that the death toll related to the pandemic stood at 41,145 as of Sunday afternoon.A total of 1,399,238 people infected with COVID-19 have recovered across the continent, the Africa CDC said.The most affected African countries in terms of the number of positive cases include South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Ethiopia and Nigeria. The Southern Africa region is the most COVID-19 affected region both in terms of the number of confirmed positive cases as well as the number of deaths.
Ontario’s reckless reopening of workplaces and schools producing disastrous conditions in child care facilities Health authorities in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, reported record high new COVID-19 infections on successive days last weekend, with 978 new cases on Saturday and 1,042 Sunday. The seven-day rolling average of new cases also stood at an all-time high Sunday of 857. The dramatic resurgence of COVID-19 cases since the beginning of September is the direct result of the homicidal policy of “reopening” the economy and schools, so as to step up the wringing of profits from the working class. This policy, which prioritizes profits over human lives, is backed by the entire political establishment, beginning with the federal Liberal and Ontario Conservative governments, and it is being enforced by the trade unions. They have repeatedly denounced worker job action against potentially life-threatening conditions in unsafe factories and schools as “illegal.” The resurgent pandemic is taking a particularly harsh toll on child care workers. This low-paid, highly exploited section of workers is being placed in extreme danger by the ruling elite’s criminal policies. With virtually no safeguards to protect them from the virus, they come into close contact with large numbers of children, parents, and other relatives on a daily basis, exposing them to a high risk of infection. Big business views the provision of child care for worker-parents as pivotal to its drive to corral workers back on the job amid a raging pandemic. Even prior to the pandemic, the acute shortage of child care spaces and child care options was contributing to reduced employment participation rates. Statistics Canada found that in 2019, 7 percent of workers had reduced their hours due to the lack of affordable child care. Illustrating the scale of the demand for child care, nationally, nearly 1.5 million children were regularly receiving non-parental child care before the pandemic’s outbreak. Across Canada, most child care centres were closed when COVID-19 cases exploded in March and provincial governments were forced to order lockdowns. Parents were left at home with pre-K and other young children, some of whom began to attend school virtually. Some municipalities established child care centres for essential workers, but those who could kept their children away from day cares due to concerns about the spread of the virus. The refusal of the federal and provincial governments to offer adequate financial support to families left many parents to fend for themselves.
Chinese Authorities Scramble To Suppress Biggest COVID-19 Outbreak In Months – Chinese authorities are scrambling to suppress yet another outbreak in far-flung Xinjiang after a 17-year-old garment factory worker tested positive. Health authorities reported 137 new cases on Sunday, all of which were confirmed in Xinjiang Province, making this by far the largest new outbreak since the Spring. In keeping with Beijing’s prescribed “wartime posture” approach, authorities last night launched a mass-testing campaign to try and test all 4.75 million residents in and around the city of Kashgar. A couple of weeks ago, authorities pulled off a similarly massive testing drive in Qingdao, a city in the eastern Shangdong Province. Thanks to sweeping smartphone-based mass surveillance/case-tracking, scapegoating and outright suppression of case numbers and deaths, China has managed to drive COVID-19 case numbers to almost zero. In Wuhan, locals travel to bars and concerts, sometimes, taking rapid COVID-19 tests, with their infection status logged on their smartphones in a way that can be examined by bouncers at the door. To further confuse the international community, along with the Chinese public, China’s national health authorities have divided case classifications into imported vs. domestic and asymptomatic vs symptomatic. Here’s how the ‘official’ tally of cases has evolved in recent weeks. The new cases, all classified as asymptomatic, were linked to a factory in Shufu county where the 17-year-old girl and her parents worked, according to the Xinjiang health commission, which held a press briefing on Sunday following an exhaustive investigation of the source of the outbreak by Beijing’s NHC. As of Sunday afternoon more than 2.8 million samples had been collected in the area and the rest would be completed within two days, the city government said in a statement.
New Research Points To The People’s Liberation Army Hospital In Wuhan As Origin For Global Coronavirus Pandemic — A paper published on Zenodo (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.4119263) by Dr. Steven Quay, M.D., PhD., head of two COVID-19 therapeutic programs at Atossa Therapeutics, illuminates new scientific observations and conclusions documenting that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic began at the General Hospital of Central Theater Command of People’s Liberation Army (PLA Hospital) in Wuhan, China, located at 627 Wulon Road, Wuchang District, Wuhan. According to the paper, international biospecimen data repositories indicate as early as December 10, 2019 COVID patient records were being created by PLA personnel, weeks before the Chinese government informed the WHO of the pandemic. The paper documents four patients from the PLA Hospital that have the earliest genetic signature of direct human-to-human coronavirus transmission. It also includes the patient whose coronavirus is genetically closest to a bat virus from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) that WIV scientists call “the closest relative of 2019-nCoV.” The PLA Hospital is three kilometers from WIV and both are located on Line 2 of the Wuhan Metro System. The paper documents an analysis of the hospitals where the earliest COVID patients were seen, between December 1, 2019 to early January, and shows that all these hospitals were also located on the Metro Line 2. This is the first paper in the world to observe that Line 2 is uniquely positioned to have been the worldwide human-to-human COVID pandemic conduit as it carries five percent of the population of Wuhan every day, allowing rapid spread throughout Wuhan and the entire Hubei Province; it includes the high-speed rail station, allowing rapid spread throughout China; and it terminates at the international airport station, allowing rapid spread throughout the world. Line 2 also services the Hunan Seafood Market, previously suggested to be associated with the origin of the pandemic. The full paper can be read below (pdf link).
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