Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 27September 2020

Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

The news posted last week for the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some important articles are summarized here. The articles are more or less organized with general virus news and anecdotes first, then stories from around the US, followed by an increased number of items from other countries around the globe. US new cases increased slightly overall to 6-week high. US deaths continued a slow decline. Elsewhere, new cases are rising again in Europe and India is the new global hotspot. Economic news related to COVID-19 is found here.

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Summary:

New US cases were up week over week for the second week in a row. Recent data is distorted by Labor Day, when cases appeared to fall by half to a 14 week low. But the data last week was a 6-week high which is probably little affected by Labor Day reporting anomalies. The same holiday issue impacted the week over week death counts last week, giving the impression that they’re rising, but it seems highly unlikely that people suddenly stopped dying on Labor Day, or on the 4th of July for that matter, when the US death toll fell to the lowest since mid-March. Last week the death toll numbers continued the small rate of decline that had been observed for several weeks before Labor Day

Global cases have risen week over week and remain 5% to 10% higher than during the prior two months.

Calculated Risk is tracking the daily testing rate and results. The 26 September graphic:

Another source of regularly updated data is the Johns Hopkins’ web site. Below is a graphic for Johns Hopkins for the daily global new cases since the start of the pandemic.

Of course, Steven Hansen summarizes and links the latest news related to the pandemic every day, 7 days a week, plus displays over a dozen important graphics updated at least daily. The most recent article at the time this is published: 26 September 2020 Coronavirus Charts and News: Are You Faced With A COVID Shot, Every Year, For The Rest Of Your Life?

This article leads the daily newsletter from Global Economic Intersection every day. Newsletter subscription is free.

Here are the rest of the articles for the past week reviewed and summarized:

Death rates spike for patients with cancer and COVID-19 who are treated with certain anti-cancer therapies at certain times – University of Cincinnati researchers have found that certain treatments for cancer may increase the chance of death if they contract COVID-19. These findings from a multicenter study, presented at the European Society for Medical Oncology Virtual Congress 2020, shed light on ways standard anti-cancer treatments may impact outcomes for patients with both cancer and the coronavirus. “Patients with cancer are susceptible to infection from COVID-19 and subsequent complications,” says Trisha Wise-Draper, MD, associate professor of medicine in the Division of Hematology Oncology at the UC College of Medicine and lead author. “They experience higher rates of hospitalization, up to 40%, severe respiratory illness and death. Treatment for cancer, within four weeks of [the diagnosis of] COVID-19, was suggested to be associated with higher rates of complications, but less is known about treatment before or after that time frame. “In a previous study from the COVID-19 and Cancer Consortium, with a smaller group of patients, we found that several factors increased the chance of death including age, sex, history of smoking and other health conditions, including active cancer. However, recent cancer treatment was not associated with poor outcomes in the smaller cohort. Now, we’re investigating the correlation between timing of anti-cancer treatment and COVID-19 related complications as well as death in 30 days of a larger number of patients — over 3,000.” “Of the 3,600 patients analyzed from 122 institutions across the country, we found that 30-day mortality was highest among cancer patients treated one to three months prior to COVID-19 diagnosis and was highest for those treated with a chemotherapy/immunotherapy combination,” continues Wise-Draper, a UC Health oncologist and member of the UC Cancer Center. “Death was especially high in those receiving anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies, which are normally used to deplete abnormal B cells common for certain lymphomas, one to three months prior to COVID-19 infection – a time period for which significant B-cell depletion develops.” She adds that death was higher for those undergoing active cancer treatment, except for endocrine therapy, when compared to patients untreated within a year prior to COVID-19 diagnosis.

Higher risk of death in cancer patients with COVID-19 may be due to advanced age and more pre-existing conditions, rather than cancer itself – New research presented at this this week’s ESCMID Conference on Coronavirus Diseases (ECCVID, online 23-25 September) suggests that the poor outcomes and higher death rates in cancer patients with COVID-19 could be due to them generally being older and having more underlying conditions, rather than due to the cancer itself. The study is by Dr Maria Rüthrich, Jena University Hospital, Germany, and colleagues. The authors retrospectively analysed a cohort of 435 patients with cancer and COVID-19 from a total of 3071 patients enrolled between March and August 2020. Baseline characteristics include socio-demographics, comorbidity according to Charlson Comorbidity Index (a measurement of number of underlying conditions) (CCI), ECOG score (measure of functional status in cancer patients) and outcome of COVID-19.A total of 193 patients (54%) had an active malignant disease and 96 (22%) had received anti-cancer treatment within the last 3 months before testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. At detection of SARS-CoV-2, 272 (63%) pts were in an uncomplicated phase of COVID-19 disease. Progression to complicated/ critical phases of COVID-19 was seen in 206 (55%) pts, while 119 (28%) pts received critical care. A total of 78 of these 119 pts (66%) needed mechanical ventilation. COVID-19 mortality rate was 23%, while men were twice as likely to die as women (28% vs 14%). Additionally, active cancer disease (e.g. recurrent or metastatic cancer, pts receiving anti-cancer therapy) was associated with a higher mortality attributed to COVID-19 than in patients without active cancer disease (27% vs 17%) Compared with non-cancer patients, the distribution of age and comorbidity differ significantly. Thus, patients without cancer were younger (most frequent age category 56 – 65) and had less comorbidity (CCI 1.12 vs 1.59). Survival at 30 days was worse in cancer patients (70%) versus those without cancer (77%), and mortality rate higher (23% vs 14%). However, after adjustments for age, sex and comorbidity, survival and mortality attributed to COVID-19 were comparable to non-cancer patients.

Statins reduce COVID-19 severity, likely by removing cholesterol that virus uses to infect – There are no Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved treatments for COVID-19, the pandemic infection caused by a novel coronavirus. While several therapies are being tested in clinical trials, current standard of care involves providing patients with fluids and fever-reducing medications. To speed the search for new COVID-19 therapies, researchers are testing repurposed drugs — medicines already known to be safe for human use because they are FDA-approved for other conditions — for their abilities to mitigate the virus. UC San Diego Health researchers recently reported that statins — widely used cholesterol-lowering medications — are associated with reduced risk of developing severe COVID-19 disease, as well as faster recovery times. A second research team at UC San Diego School of Medicine has uncovered evidence that helps explains why: In short, removing cholesterol from cell membranes prevents the coronavirus from getting in. .. The researchers found that statin use prior to hospital admission for COVID-19 was associated with a more than 50 percent reduction in risk of developing severe COVID-19, compared to those with COVID-19 but not taking statins. Patients with COVID-19 who were taking statins prior to hospitalization also recovered faster than those not taking the cholesterol-lowering medication.

Lower zinc levels in the blood are associated with an increased risk of death in patients with COVID-19 E-MAIL New research presented at this week’s ESCMID Conference on Coronavirus Disease (ECCVID, held online from 23-25 September) shows that having a lower level of zinc in the blood is associated with a poorer outcome in patients with COVID-19. The study is by Dr Roberto Güerri-Fernflndez, Hospital Del Mar, Barcelona, Spain, and colleagues. Increased intracellular zinc concentrations efficiently impair replication/reproduction of a number of viruses. However, the effect of plasma zinc levels on SARS-COV-2 is not yet understood. In this study, the authors explored whether plasma zinc levels at admission are associated with disease outcome in COVID-19 patients. The authors did a retrospective analysis of symptomatic admitted patients to a tertiary university hospital in Barcelona, Spain over the period from 15th March 2020 to 30th April 2020. Data on demography, pre-existing chronic conditions, laboratory results and treatment were collected. Clinical severity of COVID-19 was assessed at admission. Fasting plasma zinc levels were measured routinely at admission (baseline) in all patients admitted to the COVID-19 Unit. Computer modelling and statistical analyses were used the assess the impact of zinc on mortality. During this period of study 611 patients were admitted. The mean age was 63 years, and 332 patients were male (55%). During this period total mortality was 87 patients (14%). Among those who died, the zinc levels at baseline were significantly lower at 43mcg/dl vs 63.1mcg/dl in survivors. Higher zinc levels were associated with lower maximum levels of interleukin-6 (proteins that indicate systemic inflammation) during the period of active infection. After adjusting by age, sex, severity and receiving hydroxychloroquine, statistical analysis showed each unit increase of plasma zinc at admission to hospital was associated with a 7% reduced risk of in-hospital mortality. Having a plasma zinc level lower than 50mcg/dl at admission was associated with a 2.3 times increased risk of in-hospital death compared with those patients with a plasma zinc level of 50mcg/dl or higher. The authors conclude: “Lower zinc levels at admission correlate with higher inflammation in the course of infection and poorer outcome. Plasma zinc levels at admission are associated with mortality in COVID-19 in our study. Further studies are needed to assess the therapeutic impact of this association.”

Adequate levels of vitamin D reduces complications, death among COVID-19 patients. Hospitalized COVID-19 patients who were vitamin D sufficient, with a blood level of 25-hydroxyvitamin D of at least 30 ng/mL (a measure of vitamin D status), had a significant decreased risk for adverse clinical outcomes including becoming unconscious, hypoxia (body starved for oxygen) and death. In addition, they had lower blood levels of an inflammatory marker (C-reactive protein) and higher blood levels of lymphocytes (a type of immune cell to help fight infection).”This study provides direct evidence that vitamin D sufficiency can reduce the complications, including the cytokine storm (release of too many proteins into the blood too quickly) and ultimately death from COVID-19,” explained corresponding author Michael F. Holick, Ph.D., MD, professor of medicine, physiology and biophysics and molecular medicine at Boston University School of Medicine. A blood sample to measure vitamin D status (measured serum level of 25-hydroxyvitamin D) was taken from 235 patients were admitted to the hospital with COVID-19. These patients were followed for clinical outcomes including clinical severity of the infection, becoming unconscious, having difficulty in breathing resulting in hypoxia and death. The blood was also analyze for an inflammatory marker (C-reactive protein) and for numbers of lymphocytes. The researchers then compared all of these parameters in patients who were vitamin D deficient to those who were vitamin D sufficient. In patients older than 40 years they observed that those patients who were vitamin D sufficient were 51.5 percent less likely to die from the infection compared to patients who were vitamin D deficient or insufficient with a blood level of 25-hydroxyvitamin D less than 30 ng/mL. Holick, who most recently published a study which found that a sufficient amount of vitamin D can reduce the risk of catching coronavirus by 54 percent, believes that being vitamin D sufficient helps to fight consequences from being infected not only with the corona virus but also other viruses causing upper respiratory tract illnesses including influenza. “Because vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency is so widespread in children and adults in the United States and worldwide, especially in the winter months, it is prudent for everyone to take a vitamin D supplement to reduce risk of being infected and having complications from COVID-19.” These findings appear online in the journal PLOS ONE.

Most homemade masks are doing a great job, even when we sneeze, study finds – Studies indicate that homemade masks help combat the spread of viruses like COVID-19 when combined with frequent hand-washing and physical distancing. Many of these studies focus on the transfer of tiny aerosol particles; however, researchers say that speaking, coughing and sneezing generates larger droplets that carry virus particles. Because of this, mechanical engineer Taher Saif said the established knowledge may not be enough to determine the effectiveness of some fabrics used in homemade masks. Saif, a mechanical science and engineering professor at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, led a study that examined the effectiveness of common household fabrics in blocking droplets. The findings are published in the journal Extreme Mechanics Letters. “We found that all of the fabrics tested are considerably effective at blocking the 100 nanometer particles carried by high-velocity droplets similar to those that may be released by speaking, coughing and sneezing, even as a single layer,” Saif said. “With two or three layers, even the more permeable fabrics, such as T-shirt cloth, achieve droplet-blocking efficiency that is similar to that of a medical mask, while still maintaining comparable or better breathability.

Patients Who Refuse Masks: Responses That Won’t Get You Sued — medscape.com — Your waiting room is filled with mask-wearing individuals, except for one person. Your staff offers a mask to this person, citing your office policy of requiring masks for all persons in order to prevent asymptomatic COVID spread, and the patient refuses to put it on. What can you/should you/must you do? Are you required to see a patient who refuses to wear a mask? If you ask the patient to leave without being seen, can you be accused of patient abandonment? If you allow the patient to stay, could you be liable for negligence for exposing others to a deadly illness? The rules on mask-wearing, while initially downright confusing, have inexorably come to a rough consensus. By governors’ orders, masks are now mandatory in most states, though when and where they are required varies. For example, effective July 7, the governor of Washington has ordered that a business not allow a customer to enter without a face covering.So far, there are no cases or court decisions to guide us about whether it is negligence to allow an unmasked patient to commingle in a medical practice. Nor do we have case law to help us determine whether patient abandonment would apply if a patient is sent home without being seen.We can apply the legal principles and cases from other situations to this one, however, to tell us what constitutes negligence or patient abandonment.The practical questions, legally, are who might sue and on what basis?

The CDC retracts its guidance that stipulated the airborne danger of the coronavirus – On Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published new guidelines acknowledging that the virus causing COVID-19 is primarily transmitted through small airborne particles. This admission implies that people occupying poorly ventilated areas such as classrooms, meat packing factories, production lines, churches, grocery stores, etc., are at risk of acquiring COVID-19 if someone else in the room with COVID-19 is contagious. Airborne particles, unlike respiratory droplets, can linger in the air and concentrate throughout an enclosed room. The CDC wrote in no uncertain terms that the most common modes of transmission for SARS-CoV-2 were through “respiratory droplets or small particles, such as those in aerosols, produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, sings, talks, or breathes. These particles can be inhaled into the nose, mouth, airways, and lungs and cause infection. This is thought to be the main way the virus spreads.” They also added that these airborne particles could travel beyond the six feet limit that has been the officially stated social distancing yardstick. However, by Monday afternoon, the guidelines had disappeared off their pages, reverting to their previous position that the virus is spread mainly from person-to-person in close contact. There is no longer a mention of “airborne” or “aerosol.” Only a comment stating that “a draft version of proposed changes to these recommendations was posted in error to the agency’s official website” indicates that a retraction occurred. Given the recent controversies surrounding the CDC, the exposure by Politico over the administration’s manipulation of the weekly reports, essentially being taken hostage by the Trump administration and the political establishment to censor the scientific data, it is apparent that the national public health institution is being used to provide a cover for the ruling class policy of herd immunity. The small window provided by this slip underscores the deeply criminal intentions that are at play. Clearly, a statement that indicates the airborne nature of the SARS-CoV-2 virus brings into stark relief that the opening of schools is a dangerous initiative, one rooted in ensuring the factories and production lines are operating at breakneck capacity, and every productive hand is gainfully employed unadulterated by the needs of their children or families. From the perspective of the ruling class, schools are not primarily a place of education, but temporary safe holding locations for children and adolescents while their parents are laboring at work. Children and young people infected with COVID-19 fair better than older adults, but they are not impervious to the dangers of the virus. There have been well-documented cases of infants, toddlers, teenagers and young adults succumbing to the infection and suffering from the morbidity it causes. They are also quite efficient at transmitting the virus, especially as asymptomatic carriers. By all accounts, school reopenings and children are a key element in the policy of herd immunity that is being embraced openly by every political spectrum of the capitalist class. Behind this policy is the need to effectively cull the most unproductive sector of the population – the retired and enfeebled who are a drain on the surplus value that is generated by the working class. If it happens to kill a few thousand children or hundreds of thousands of adults in the prime of their lives, the surplus population will quickly fill in these gaps.

In Stunning Reversal, CDC Says It Published New Guidance On Risks Of ‘Airborne’ COVID-19 “In Error” – After publishing guidance warning about the serious risks of “airborne” infection associated with SARS-CoV-2, the CDC just seriously harmed its own credibility by acknowledging Monday that it had posted the new guidance “in error”, following a pressure campaign from the WHO.Scientists have been gathering evidence that the novel coronavirus plaguing the world spreads via aerosol particles practically since it first emerged, and back in July, a group of 200 scientists sent a letter to the WHO urging the international public health agency to change its guidance on the spread of the disease. The problem scientists argued is that the WHO hasn’t updated its views to incorporate new research showing that aerosol spread is a much greater threat than touching contaminated surfaces, or via large droplets spread by close contact between individuals.Yet, the WHO has refused these overtures, and this week it successfully convinced the CDC to do the same.After the WHO announced earlier that it had reached out to the CDC over the guidance change, the agency informed American media outlets that a “draft version” of the guidance had been “posted in error”.“A draft version of proposed changes to these recommendations was posted in error to the agency’s official website,” the CDC said. “CDC is currently updating its recommendations regarding airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19). Once this process has been completed, the update language will be posted.”Even so, the American media has grown increasingly convinced that aerosols significantly contribute to overall spread of the virus, with ABC News suggesting yesterday that expensive UV-light powered surface cleaners were merely examples of “hygiene theater”. For months, the CDC has insisted that these large droplets are the primary mode of transmission, which is why – it argued – people must wear masks in public, because masks are effective at blocking large particles. However, masks – at least, homemade clothe masks with imperfect seals – aren’t as effective at filtering all aerosol particles. Furthermore, research suggests aerosol particles released when a person sneezes can reach up to 26 feet.

CDC Flip-Flops on Paradigm Shift to SARS-COV-2 Transmission via Aerosols – Lambert Strether – As readers know, I stand for aerosol transmission as the primary transmission mechanism for SARS-COV-2; that is, singing, shouting, talking, even breathing, all of which give rise to small virus-bearing particles that float indefinite distances (aerosols), as opposed to coughing or sneezing, which give rise to larger particles that fall, pulled down by gravity (droplets), after travelling one or two meters (and also accumulate on surfaces, which are then to be wiped). As I wrote back in May: From the beginning of the #COVID19 pandemic, we’ve been washing our hands, masking up, cleaning surfaces, and social distancing. These measures have worked (especially masking), but now we know more. There’s mounting evidence that airborne transmission indoors is a key – perhaps the main – pathwa y to SARS-COV-2 transmission. In this post I want to look at why that’s so, give examples, and suggest a simple heuristic to stay safe. Material like this might also be used to inform public policy (here; here) by reducing superspreader events in enclosed spaces like churches (airborne transmission via singing), restaurants (loud talking, especially if room is noisy), bars (ditto), nursing homes (shouting[1]), gyms (grunting), meat-packing plants (shouting), call centers (talking), offices generally (air conditioning), and other hot spots, but working that policy out is not the object of this post (see here for engineering controls for airborne transmission, and here for covid-proofing public spaces). I took this view because of case studies, given in the post, for which aerosol transmission could give an account, and droplet tranmission could not. (Subsequently, actual transmission of viable viral material through the air was demonstrated in two hospital studies, posted in Links.) So it was with great interest that I received the following mail from alert reader Chi Gal in Carolina, saying that the CDC had finally updated its guidance to support aerosol transmission. (I quote Chi Gal to give her a hat tip for taking point on this topic in comments). Chi Gal wrote: Subject: Finally, the CDC updated its guidance! On September 18, just 7 months in. Maybe now we have a shot at getting this thing under control. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html First, I checked the Twitter, and found this headline from the Los Angeles Times: “CDC says coronavirus spreads mainly in the air, through respiratory aerosols and droplets.” OMG! Happily and excitedly, I went to the CDC website, where this notice appeared: I took a screenshot and sent it to Chi Gal: “Did the version you saw have this at the top:” “Nope – omg” And that, dear readers, is all that anybody knows (at least out here in the Great Unwashed). Here is the CDC guidance that appeared and disappeared. From the Hill, the CDC guidance that appeared and disappeared: “There is growing evidence that droplets and airborne particles can remain suspended in the air and be breathed in by others, and travel distances beyond 6 feet (for example, during choir practice, in restaurants, or in fitness classes),” the agency had written. “In general, indoor environments without good ventilation increase this risk.” “These particles can be inhaled into the nose, mouth, airways, and lungs and cause infection,” the deleted guidance said. “This is thought to be the main way the virus spreads.”

Former FDA Director Expects “At Least One More Cycle” Of COVID-19 Before Vaccine Approval – Former FDA Director Dr. Scott Gottlieb has been one of the most prominent ‘expert’ voices since the start of the COVID-19 epidemic, writing op-eds about how the FDA can safely speed up approval of a vaccine, and appearing daily on CNBC’s “Squawk Box”.On Sunday, Gottlieb appeared on CBS News’ Face the Nation, where he shared that he expects the US to experience one more round of COVID-19 before a vaccine becomes widely available.”Well I think we have at least one more cycle with this virus heading into the fall and winter…if you look around the country right now there’s an unmistakable spike in new cases and the declines in hospitalizations that we were achieving have started to level off.”It’s possible it could be a “post-Labor Day bump,” and Saturday’s Sunday’s numbers could suggest that perhaps US cases are already leveling off again. But it’s clear that “we’re seeing a resurgence in infections,” Gottlieb said, adding that “there’s a lot of risk” heading into the fall season because that’s when “respiratory illnesses” like to spread.” Gottlieb also weighed in on President Trump’s latest claim on vaccine timing – that a vaccine will be widely available by April. Gottlieb, who is on the board of Pfizer, said that he doesn’t expect a vaccine will be approved for general use until the end of the 2nd quarter, or perhaps even the beginning of the third quarter, of next year.“I don’t believe a vaccine will be licensed for general use by the population until the end of the 2nd quarter of 2021, or perhaps a little later than that…what you really want is a vaccine available by the fall of 2021,” Gottlieb said. Whether the vaccine is approved in April or June of next year, ultimately, shouldn’t make much difference, Gottlieb added. The outbreak should have mostly tapered off by then. But there will always be a risk of a comeback heading into the fall in the US.

Low genetic diversity may be an Achilles heel of SARS-CoV-2 (PDF) PNAS. “Scientists worldwide are racing to develop effective vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of the COVID-19 pandemic. An important and perhaps underappreciated aspect of this endeavor is ensuring that the vaccines being developed confer immunity to all viral lineages in the global population. Toward this end, a seminal study published in PNAS (1) analyzes 27,977 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from 84 countries obtained throughout the course of the pandemic to track and characterize the evolution of the novel coronavirus since its origination. The principle conclusion reached by the authors of this work is that SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity is remarkably low, almost entirely the product of genetic drift, and should not be expected to impede development of a broadly protective vaccine..”

Antibody Responses to SARS-CoV-2: Let’s Stick to Known Knowns (PDF) Journal of Immunology. From the Abstract: “The scale of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has thrust immunology into the public spotlight in unprecedented ways. In this article, which is part opinion piece and part review, we argue that the normal cadence by which we discuss science with our colleagues failed to properly convey likelihoods of the immune response to SARSCoV-2 to the public and the media. As a result, biologically implausible outcomes were given equal weight as the principles set by decades of viral immunology. Unsurprisingly, questionable results and alarmist news media articles have filled the void. We suggest an emphasis on setting expectations based on prior findings while avoiding the overused approach of assuming nothing. After reviewing Ab-mediated immunity after coronavirus and other acute viral infections, we posit that, with few exceptions, the development of protective humoral immunity of more than a year is the norm. Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is likely to follow the same pattern.”

Why misinformation about COVID-19’s origins keeps going viral –TWENTY YEARS AGO, data scientist Sinan Aral began to see the formation of a trend that now defines our social media era: how quickly untrue information spreads. “Human attention is drawn to novelty, to things that are new and unexpected,” says Aral. “We gain in status when we share novel information because it looks like we’re in the know, or that we have access to inside information.” Enter the Yan report. On September 14, an article was posted to Zenodo, an open-access site for sharing research papers, which claimed that genetic evidence showed that the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus was made in a lab, rather than emerging through natural spillover from animals. The 26-page paper, led by Chinese virologist Li-Meng Yan, a postdoctoral researcher who left Hong Kong University, has not undergone peer review and asserts that this evidence of genetic engineering has been “censored” in the scientific journals. A Twitter firestorm promptly erupted. Prominent virologists, such as Kristian Andersen from Scripps Research and Carl Bergstrom from University of Washington, took to the internet and called out the paper for being unscientific. Chief among their complaints was that the report ignored the vast body of published literature regarding what is known about how coronaviruses circulate in wild animal populations and the tendency to spill over into humans, including recent publications about the origins of SARS-CoV-2. In July, David Robertson, a viral genomics researcher at University of Glasgow, authored a peer-reviewed paper in Nature Medicine that showed the lineage behind SARS-CoV-2 and its closest known ancestor, a virus called RaTG13, have been circulating in bat populations for decades. Virologists think this relative, which is 96-percent identical to the novel coronavirus, probably propagated and evolved in bats or human hosts and then went undetected for about 20 years before adapting its current form and causing the ongoing pandemic. The Yan report claims this hypothesis is controversial, and that RaTG13 was also engineered in a lab. But that flies in the face of the overwhelming body of genetic evidence published about SARS-CoV-2 and its progenitors. What’s more, the report was funded by the Rule of Law Society, a nonprofit organization founded by former chief White House strategist Steve Bannon, who has since been arrested for fraud. That’s yet another reason many virologists are questioning the veracity of its claims.

Signs of an ‘October Vaccine Surprise’ Alarm Career Scientists – President Donald Trump, who seems intent on announcing a COVID-19 vaccine before Election Day, could legally authorize a vaccine over the objections of experts, officials at the Food and Drug Administration and even vaccine manufacturers, who have pledged not to release any vaccine unless it’s proved safe and effective.In podcasts, public forums, social media and medical journals, a growing number of prominent health leaders say they fear that Trump – who has repeatedly signaled his desire for the swift approval of a vaccine and his displeasure with perceived delays at the FDA – will take matters into his own hands, running roughshod over the usual regulatory process.It would reflect another attempt by a norm-breaking administration, poised to ram through a Supreme Court nominee opposed to existing abortion rights and the Affordable Care Act, to inject politics into sensitive public health decisions. Trump has repeatedly contradicted the advice of senior scientists on COVID-19 while pushing controversial treatments for the disease.If the executive branch were to overrule the FDA’s scientific judgment, a vaccine of limited efficacy and, worse, unknown side effects could be rushed to market.The worries intensified over the weekend, after Alex Azar, the administration’s secretary of Health and Human Services, asserted his agency’s rule-making authority over the FDA. HHS spokesperson Caitlin Oakley said Azar’s decision had no bearing on the vaccine approval process.Vaccines are typically approved by the FDA. Alternatively, Azar – who reports directly to Trump – can issue an emergency use authorization, even before any vaccines have been shown to be safe and effective in late-stage clinical trials. “Yes, this scenario is certainly possible legally and politically,” said Dr. Jerry Avorn, a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, who outlined such an event in the New England Journal of Medicine. He said it “seems frighteningly more plausible each day.” Vaccine experts and public health officials are particularly vexed by the possibility because it could ruin the fragile public confidence in a COVID-19 vaccine. It might put scientific authorities in the position of urging people not to be vaccinated after years of coaxing hesitant parents to ignore baseless fears. Physicians might refuse to administer a vaccine approved with inadequate data, said Dr. Preeti Malani, chief health officer and professor of medicine at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, in a recent webinar. “You could have a safe, effective vaccine that no one wants to take.” A recent KFF poll found that 54% of Americans would not submit to a COVID-19 vaccine authorized before Election Day.

Andrew Cuomo Says NY Officials Will Do Separate Review of Any COVID-19 Vaccine —Jerri-Lynn Scofield – Andrew Cuomo has been given kudos for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Inappropriately so.Now, why do I say this? Consider the death counts. Hong Kong, a city of roughly 7 million people, one of the most densely populated in the world, and close to the Wuhan epicentre of COVID-19, has due to its excellent policies and health care, is only showing 104 deaths as of today. No typo.Whereas New York, of which Cuomo is governor, has to this day suffered 32,696 deaths, and New York City, which holds a population of 8 million, making it about the same size as Hong Kong, has seen 23,875 deaths. I’ve written about this comparison extensively, often drawing on the insights of Dr. Sarah Borwein, a Hong Kong based doctor with extensive experience going back to at least to SARS outbreak; see here; here; here; here; here; here; here; and here.) When faced with this comparison, there’s no way I would call NY’s relative performance – for which Cuomo is trying to claim credit – good. And I will continue to hammer the point every time I see Cuomo trying to take a victory lap for New York state or city’s COVID-19 performance. It has been highly deficient, and only seems good in comparison to Trump. But is that any comparison?Now, onto the latest controversy. Using his credit, Cuomo has jumped into the fraught debate over premature emerge of a vaccine, without sufficient design and testing. Everyone knows Trump is counting on an October surprise in the form of a vaccine to goose his re-election chances. And thus, we’re all primed to be rightfully skeptical of any vaccine the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) might put forward, maybe any day now.Enter stage left, Cuomo. According to the FT:The governor of New York has become the latest figure to cast doubt on the Trump administration’s process to authorise a coronavirus vaccine, saying his state would do a separate review because he “does not trust the federal government”. Andrew Cuomo said on Thursday his officials would review any vaccine licensed by the US Food and Drug Administration, warning that the federal process had become too politicised.Mr Cuomo said: “Frankly, I’m not going to trust the federal government’s opinion, and I wouldn’t recommend [a vaccine] to New Yorkers based on the federal government’s opinion.” Now, state governors such as Cuomo enjoy no regulatory approval over vaccines. But Cuomo seems to have found a loophole and has appointed a 16-member panel to decide on logistics of how a vaccine would be distributed in New York. This ability would extend to go slow on distributing any vaccine it thought unsafe. So as a New Yorker, I might not, after all, have access to that first vaccine that is made available.

A Covid-19 Vaccine for Children May Not Arrive Before Fall 2021 NYT – — Thanks to the U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed and other programs, a number of Covid-19 vaccines for adults are already in advanced clinical trials. But no trials have yet begun in the United States to determine whether these vaccines are safe and effective for children. On Friday, Dr. Anderson and his colleagues published a commentary in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases in which they called for vaccine makers to get their act together. They entitled it, “Warp Speed for Covid-19 Vaccines: Why are Children Stuck in Neutral?” The search for a Covid-19 vaccine started as soon as researchers isolated the virus in January. Teams of developers across the world began creating vaccines based on different techniques. For example, some used inactivated coronaviruses that stimulated the immune system to make its own antibodies; others delivered viral genes into the body, triggering immune cells into action. Once they were ready to test those vaccines, they started down a well-worn path of rigorous protocols developed over decades to determine if a vaccine is safe and effective. Vaccines require especially strict tests because they’re fundamentally different from drugs, which are intended for a limited number of people who are sick with some particular disease. Vaccines, on the other hand, are given to millions of healthy people to prevent them from getting sick in the first place. After testing a vaccine on animals, developers start clinical trials on people. Only if researchers discovered no serious side effects would they start testing them in children, often beginning with teenagers, then working their way down to younger ages. Dr. Anderson said that vaccine makers could have started running trials for children over the summer, as soon as they had gotten good Phase 2 results from adults. But that did not happen. And with autumn around the corner, that still hasn’t happened. Whenever these trials do start, it could take upward of a year to get vaccines for Covid-19 ready for children. Vaccine makers will need to write protocols and get them approved by the F.D.A. They’ll need to recruit volunteers – a process that is more time consuming for pediatric vaccines since parents must give informed consent. Getting to the first injections could take a couple of months. By necessity, the trials would have to start small, with researchers giving perhaps just half a dozen kids a low dose of the vaccine and then monitoring them for several days. Then the trial could expand to dozens and then hundreds of kids.A couple more months might pass while the vaccine developers give a low dose to a small group of kids. Each group of children would need two months of observation to check for their immune response and to make sure they don’t have any side effects. Only then would vaccine developers start a new trial with a higher dose.These tests would likely start with older children, before researchers could shift down to kids between 3 and 8. And only after gathering early data from that trial would it be possible to start one for children under 3. Once all of the results from these trials came in, the F.D.A. would have to put them through an independent review before approving the vaccines for children.

One Bank Expects COVID Herd Immunity To Emerge By 2022 – Last week, Bank of America made a rough, back-of-the-envelope calculation that roughly 12% of the US population had achieved COVID herd immunity, far below the 60% threshold that is necessary for the disease to be contained without fresh policy actions, prompting BofA to propose a vision for a world in which we get periodic covid flareups in the coming months, many of which could culminate in fresh lockdowns. Taking the initial thoughts from BofA, this morning Deutsche Bank published an extensive report analyzing what “Living with Covid” for the foreseeable future would be like (with an emphasis on Asian countries) since – like BofA – the German bank does not see herd immunity emerging as a factor until 2022 for advanced economies, and 2023 for the rest of the world, to wit:Although developments on the vaccine front have been promising, there is uncertainty over the uptake of vaccines by the public and thereby the pace of achieving herd immunity, which would better ensure a more full normalization of economic activity. Our baseline forecast now assumes that some economies will achieve herd immunity to Covid-19 in 2022, along with most advanced economies. Other countries are likely to have to wait until 2023 to achieve the same. Risks around these forecasts are evenly balanced.Another key point that remains lost on many politicians both in the US and elsewhere is that “the tolerance for extended rigorous social distancing appears to be weakening, with new social distancing regulations being in most places milder and imposed for shorter durations. People appear to have learned how to protect themselves and to live with the virus better than during the initial outbreaks, as economic data are proving in some respects more resilient to the virus.”The bottom line, as we said many months ago, is that having done the calculus most economies are now willing to reopen their economies as the political and socioeconomic hit from lockdowns is far more adverse to the broader population – and especially the youth which is losing jobs by the millions – than enforcing full quarantine with spotty results while hoping to minimize new cases, something which can be seen most vividly in new cases in some countries like Spain and France, has failed to lead to a rebound in new deaths or hospitalizations.

Connecticut Democrat tests positive for coronavirus – A Connecticut Democrat announced on Sunday that she had been diagnosed with coronavirus. Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.) tweeted that she would quarantine for two weeks after testing positive following several unsuccessful attempts to get tested. “This morning I received a positive COVID-19 test result and will be quarantined for the 14 days,” she wrote. “After going to 2 urgent care centers yesterday, I finally got an appointment at a 3rd site and was tested this morning.” “I have taken every possible precaution and still contracted coronavirus,” she added. Hayes said she was asymptomatic, other than some breathing issues, but said her experience and that of her staff “underscore the need for a nat’l testing strategy with a coherent way to receive speedy, accurate results. This level of anxiety and uncertainty is untenable.” Hayes’s tweet comes as Connecticut’s COVID-19 caseload have remained at a low rate following a spike earlier this year; the state currently averages about 172 cases per day, according to The New York Times. Nearly 200,000 Americans have died from the coronavirus since the pandemic reached the U.S.’s shores earlier this year, and more than 6 million Americans have been infected, making the U.S. the country with the highest number of confirmed cases.

September 21 COVID-19 Test Results – The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 676,903 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 39,467 positive tests. Over 16,000 Americans have died from COVID so far in September. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here. This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.8% (red line is 7 day average). For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported. The dashed line is the June low.Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high – see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%.If people stay vigilant, the number of cases might drop to the June low some time in October (that would still be a large number of new cases, but progress).

US Suffers Most New COVID-19 Cases In 5 Weeks As Doctors Warn Of “Apocalyptic” Fall: Live Updates – The US remains on the cusp of passing the critical 200,000-death threshold as deaths slowed on Monday, while the number of new cases reported accelerated to its highest daily toll since Aug. 14. Another 52,070 cases were announced on Monday, while only 356 deaths were reported. The virus has continued to accelerate since the end of the summer, as new hotspots have emerged in the Midwest, and in parts of the South. Meanwhile, NY and NJ have both seen cases tick higher, even as both states have dragged their feet on reopening. The US has confirmed a total of 6,857,703 cases, while globally, Johns Hopkins has counted. As more doctors and scientists warn about an “apocalyptic” fall in the US, Bloomberg is reporting that college campuses have become veritable reservoirs of COVID-19 infection, and that the growing case totals might spill over into the rest of the US as kids head home for the holidays. “We may be in for a very apocalyptic fall, I’m sorry to say,” Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, told CNN. And here’s more from Bloomberg: Amid an outbreak, the University of Colorado will teach all classes remotely for at least two weeks beginning Wednesday to “help protect the health and safety of our Boulder community,” Chancellor Phil DiStefano said Monday. The New Jersey Institute of Technology last week quarantined 300 people after the virus was found in their dorm’s wastewater, the University of Wisconsin at River Falls ordered all students to shelter in place after a surge in cases, and Florida State University’s football coach announced he had tested positive. With many schools planning to end their semesters at the November holiday, students will disperse across the country, and some will bring the disease with them. “This is beyond our wildest nightmares,” said Gavin Yamey, a physician who directs Duke University’s Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. “It has been a debacle, a national catastrophe and, in many ways, you could consider it a third wave. The third wave is a university reopening wave. It was a self-inflicted national wound.” Universities were bleeding revenue when they called students back for the fall semester, facing cuts as tuition and fees plunged. Some plowed ahead with lucrative football programs, despite their potential to draw crowds. But as students returned, infection rates increased. Many schools are now running out of space to house those who tested positive. Administrators are struggling to keep infections contained as students venture off campus for coffee or hang out at bars and parties. “If infected students go home, there is a risk that they could seed outbreaks all around the country — outbreaks that are ultimately caused by the university reopening,” said Yamey.

U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Pass 200,000 as New Surge in Cases Begins – The United States passed 200,000 deaths due to COVID-19 Tuesday and experts warn that number may double before the end of the year as an autumn surge in cases starts, according to USA Today.Researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington (IHME) analyzed various scenarios that include fatigue from wearing masks and social distancing to create projections for the number of COVID-19 deaths we should expect by Jan. 1. One of their models has the U.S. reaching just shy of 400,000 deaths by the beginning of 2021.”The worst is yet to come. I don’t think perhaps that’s a surprise, although I think there’s a natural tendency as we’re a little bit in the Northern hemisphere summer, to think maybe the epidemic is going away,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the IHME, earlier this month, as CNBC reported. The U.S. accounts for roughly one-fifth of all the confirmed COVID-related deaths around the world despite having only 4 percent of the population, according to CNBC. The virus claimed the lives of roughly 100,000 Americans in the first four months of the outbreak. That number doubled over the next four months. Now, several states are seeing surges in cases after summer peaks in the Southeast, Texas and Arizona have diminished.The surges that took place across those states quickly declined with mitigation efforts like social distancing and mandated mask wearing, according to The New York Times.According to The Washington Post, 27 states and Puerto Rico have seen an increase in the number of cases over the last week. It also found that six states and Puerto Rico set record highs for the number of positive cases for a single day on Monday. While roughly half the states are seeing an increase in cases, only seven are seeing decreases, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, as CNN reported.”We’re entering into the fall and into the winter, and that means there’s going to be more indoor things than outdoor things,” Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday during the Atlantic Festival, as CNN reported. “Going into that situation, I would like to have seen the baseline of where we are – the daily number of infections – come way, way down, and not be stuck at around 30 to 40,000 per day.”

Study: Death counts fail to capture full mortality effects of COVID-19 – More than 200,000 people in the U.S. have died from COVID-19. Some argue that statistic is inaccurate due to inconsistencies in how deaths are being reported. But researchers from the University of South Florida claim that even if those deaths have been correctly measured, the number doesn’t fully convey the true mortality effects of COVID-19.A study published in the Journal of Public Health finds that for each person in the U.S. who died after contracting COVID-19, an average of nearly 10 years of life had been lost. Researchers claim “years of life lost” is a more insightful measure than death count since it accounts for the ages of the deceased. The tool is often used to determine the effects of non-communicable disease, drug misuse and suicide. They believe “years of life lost” is especially appropriate given the range of ages at which individuals have died of COVID-19.”While death counts are a vital initial measure of the extent of COVID-19 mortality, they do not provide information regarding the age profile of those who died,” said lead author Troy Quast, professor of health economics in the USF College of Public Health. “By contrast, years of life lost tell us the extent to which deaths are occurring across age groups and can potentially help healthcare providers and policymakers better target clinical and governmental responses to reduce the number of deaths.” When taking those factors into account, they calculated that COVID-19 had caused 1.2 million years of life lost during that timeframe. While the analysis only covered the period through mid-July, if past trends were to have continued, that figure at this point would approach 2 million. Nearly 80 percent of deaths nationwide occurred among people ages 65 and older. Therefore, geographical areas with a younger population had more years of life lost due to COVID-19. For example, one-sixth of the nation’s years of life lost is attributed to New York City, the then-epicenter of the outbreak. Another significant factor is pre-existing medical conditions. Males generally have more pre-existing medical conditions than females and accounted for roughly 55 percent of deaths attributed to COVID-19. Researchers adjusted for the higher rate of pre-existing conditions among COVID-19 decedents by reducing expected life expectancy by 25 percent.

California’s Deadliest Spring in 20 Years Suggests COVID Undercount The first five months of the COVID-19 pandemic in California rank among the deadliest in state history, deadlier than any other consecutive five-month period in at least 20 years.And the grim milestone encompasses thousands of “excess” deaths not accounted for in the state’s official COVID death tally: a loss of life concentrated among Blacks, Asians and Latinos, afflicting people who experts say likely didn’t get preventive medical care amid the far-reaching shutdowns or who were wrongly excluded from the coronavirus death count.About 125,000 Californians died from March through July, up by 14,200, or 13%, from the average for the same five months during the prior three years, according to a review of data from the state Department of Public Health. By the end of July, California had logged about 9,200 deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 in county death records. That left about 5,000 “excess” deaths for those months – meaning deaths above the norm not attributed to COVID-19. Deaths tend to increase from year to year as the population grows, but typically not by that much. A closer look at California’s excess deaths during the period reveal a disturbing racial and ethnic variance: All the excess deaths not officially linked to COVID infection were concentrated in minority communities. Latinos make up the vast majority, accounting for 3,350 of those excess deaths, followed by Asians (1,150), Blacks (860) and other Californians of color (350).The overall number of excess deaths across all races and ethnicities was ultimately tempered because, compared with the three prior years, there were actually 383 fewer deaths among white Californians than would be expected in the absence of COVID-19. In addition, California Healthline adjusted the overall numbers to reflect more than 320 COVID deaths that could not be categorized by race or ethnicity because that information was missing from state records. Several epidemiologists interviewed said they believe a sizable portion of the excess deaths among people of color did, in fact, stem from COVID infections but went undetected for a variety of reasons. Among them: a shortage of coronavirus tests in the early months of the pandemic; an uneven strategy for how and when to administer those tests, which persists; and inadequate access to health care providers in many low-income and immigrant communities.

Coronavirus dashboard for September 23: a pandemic course veering between panic and complacency – (8 detailed graphs) One of my consistent points over the past several months has been that, until there is competent federal leadership and/or an effective vaccine, the course of the coronavirus pandemic in the US would wax and wane as mass behavior varied between complacency and panic. This point of view has now been validated not just for the US, but for much of the world, as set forth in a piece recently by Joshua Gans, “Reproduction numbers tend to 1 and the reasons could be behavioural: [T]his pattern of R falling to about 1 happens across all states in the US and many countries in the world. To be sure, some countries actually suppressed the outbreak with R falling to 0 but for the majority, movement around 1 or just below it seems to be the norm. What happened was people are people and when they know they can catch an infectious disease by physical contact they adjust their behaviour accordingly…. When people understand that there is a dangerous coronavirus circulating, they engage in behaviour that reduces the rate at which they are infected even without governments ordering them to do so. That’s the good news. The bad news is that these people who react to what the virus is actually doing and similarly going to react when governments put in place various policies. But what if we engage in more modest policies such as testing, tracing and isolating which reduces the risk of being infected if you go out or we encourage mask-wearing with a similar desired effect? In that case, because their risk equation changes, people’s behaviour might change and this may have the perverse effect of increasing infection rates or, more assuredly, not reducing them by as much as might be hoped. And that is precisely where we are, not just in US States, but in a large number of industrialized Western nations. Let’s start by comparing the US with Canada and the 5 most populous countries in Europe. First, here is the 7 day average rate of new infections: And here are deaths: Spain, France, and to a lesser extent the UK are all having serious new outbreaks. The rate of deaths in Spain is already exceeding that of the US, with France gaining. Since deaths follow infections with a several week delay, we can expect further deterioration in those European nations. Turning to the US, let’s first break things down by region, as to both infections (first graph) and deaths (second graph)We can see that the panic in the South and West from their uncontrolled outbreaks of July and August led to a steep decline – until complacency set inparticularly over Labor Day weekend. Meanwhile the Midwest, which earlier in summer had been making good progress, saw an increase first (most likely) from the motorcycle mass gathering in Iowa, and then again post-Labor Day. Even in the Northeast a little complacency has set in. Breaking it down further, here are the top 25 States and Territories, first for infections and second for deaths: The top 10 in each show a pandemic raging out of control, and verging on uncontrolled in the next 15. This is simply ghastly 6 months into the disease. Now here are the bottom 10 for infections (first graph) and bottom 10 plus 4 other States where the death rate is averaging less than 1 per million daily: Only the three States of northern New England – Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire – are on par with neighboring Canada. New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Washington State are reasonably close behind. This too has been the pattern for months: that there are only about 10 States where the pandemic has been brought under control, or nearly so.

U.S. coronavirus cases surpass seven million as Midwest outbreak flares up (Reuters) – The number of novel coronavirus cases in the United States topped 7 million on Thursday – more than 20% of the world’s total – as Midwest states reported spikes in COVID-19 infections in September, according to a Reuters tally. Slideshow ( 2 images ) The latest milestone comes just days after the nation surpassed over 200,000 COVID-19 deaths, the world’s highest death toll from the virus. Each day, over 700 people die in the United States from COVID-19. California leads the country with over 800,000 total cases, followed by Texas, Florida and New York. (Graphic: tmsnrt.rs/363tab5) All Midwest states except Ohio reported more cases in the past four weeks as compared with the prior four weeks, led by South Dakota and North Dakota. South Dakota had the biggest percentage increase at 166% with 8,129 new cases, while North Dakota’s new cases doubled to 8,752 as compared to 4,243 during the same time in August. Many cases in those two states have been linked to the annual motorcycle rally in Sturgis, South Dakota, that annually attracts hundreds of thousands of visitors. According to a Reuters analysis, positive cases rose in half of the 50 U.S. states this month. Ten states have reported a record one-day increase in COVID-19 cases in September. New cases rose last week after falling for eight consecutive weeks. Health experts believe this spike was due to reopening schools and universities as well as parties over the recent Labor Day holiday. A study by researchers from the University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Indiana University, the University of Washington and Davidson College said recent reopening of college and university campuses for in-person instruction during late summer this year could be associated with more than 3,000 additional cases of COVID-19 per day in the United States in recent weeks. U.S. confirmed cases are the highest in the world followed by India with 5.7 million cases and Brazil with 4.6 million. The United states is currently averaging 40,000 new infections per day. Top U.S. infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci has said he would like to see the number to fall below 10,000 per day before flu season starts in October. Health officials and President Donald Trump have presented different views about the nation’s health crisis. Trump, who is seeking re-election to a second term on Nov. 3, early this month had claimed that the United States was “rounding the corner” on the crisis. Fauci contradicted the claim the next day, saying the statistics were disturbing.

Missouri governor tests positive for COVID-19- Missouri Gov. Mike Parson (R) and first lady Teresa Parson both tested positive for the coronavirus, the governor’s office said Wednesday.The office said Teresa Parson was tested Wednesday morning after showing minor symptoms. Mike Parson was tested too, and both tests came back positive. Staffers who came into contact with the governor are being tested and awaiting results.The governor has canceled official and campaign events. His office said he is not experiencing any symptoms, and that he continues to work from the governor’s mansion in Jefferson City.Parson is the second governor to test positive for COVID-19 since the beginning of the outbreak, after Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R). Stitt recovered and shared a photo of himself on social media donating plasma to help other patients.Parson ascended to the governorship in 2018, after his predecessor, Eric Greitens (R), resigned in the midst of a sex abuse scandal. He faces Auditor Nicole Galloway (D) in November’s election for a full term, one of the marquee gubernatorial contests on the ballot this year. Parson and Galloway had been scheduled to participate in a debate hosted by the Missouri Press Association on Friday. That debate is likely to be canceled as Parson isolates himself while he recovers.

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, wife, test positive for Covid-19 – Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam and his wife have tested positive forCovid-19, his office announced Friday. The governor, who is a doctor, was told Wednesday that a member of the staff of his residence had tested positive for the coronavirus, his office said in a statement. Northam, a Democrat, and his wife, Pamela Northam, were then tested. President Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a campaign rally in Newport News, Virginia, later Friday, an event that had drawn criticism from Northam’s administration because it will bring together 4,000 people in defiance of the governor’s executive order limiting public gatherings. “As I’ve been reminding Virginians throughout this crisis, Covid-19 is very real and very contagious,” Northam said in a statement. “The safety and health of our staff and close contacts is of utmost importance to Pam and me, and we are working closely with the Department of Health to ensure that everyone is well taken care of. We are grateful for your thoughts and support, but the best thing you can do for us – and most importantly, for your fellow Virginians – is to take this seriously.” Northam is not experiencing any symptoms, his office said, while his wife is experiencing mild symptoms. The pair are working with public health officials in the state to trace the contacts they have made in recent days. Last Friday, Northam cast his vote during the early voting window in Virginia for the presidential election. An official at George Mason University, in Fairfax, Va., said that because Northam and his wife were on campus on Tuesday, that the school would notify public health officials about “a very small group of individuals” that Northam was in close contact with during the visit.Northam is the second governor this week to test positive for Covid-19, after Missouri Gov. Mike Parson, a Republican, and his wife, Teresa Parson.As of Friday, there have been more than 7 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the U.S., and more than 200,000 deaths from the virus.

News Notes: Texas reported single day record of active COVID-19 cases, other stories to know (KXAN) – Texas reported a record number of active COVID-19 cases in a single day.There are currently more than 15,000 active cases in the state, but most of those came from a backlog of test results in the Houston area. In a video lasting less than five minutes, Will DuPree discusses the latest numbers in Austin-Travis County as well as these other stories in the latest KXAN Live News Notes: South by Southwest will return in 2021 and will mostly be held virtually due to ongoing concerns with the COVID-19 pandemic.

September 24 COVID-19 Test Results – The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 887,884 test results reported over the last 24 hours. There were 44,315 positive tests. Over 19,000 Americans have died from COVID so far in September. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here This data is from the COVID Tracking Project. The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.0% (red line is 7 day average).For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com. And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing. The second graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported. The dashed line is the June low. Note that there were very few tests available in March and April, and many cases were missed (the percent positive was very high – see first graph). By June, the percent positive had dropped below 5%. If people stay vigilant, the number of cases might drop to the June low some time in October (that would still be a large number of new cases, but progress).

Study finds fewer than 1 in 10 Americans have had COVID-19 – Fewer than 1 in 10 Americans show evidence of having contracted the coronavirus, a new study of tens of thousands of blood samples has found, underscoring the broad ability the virus still has to spread during cold fall and winter months. The study, conducted by scientists at the Stanford University School of Medicine, tested plasma from more than 28,500 patients at kidney dialysis centers in July, during the second apex of the pandemic. Their research found that just 9.3 percent of the samples showed evidence of infection by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The findings suggest that a huge percentage of Americans are still susceptible to the coronavirus, which has killed more than 200,000 people in the United States already. It also suggests that millions of coronavirus cases are going undetected. More than 7 million Americans have tested positive for the virus, but the study suggests that fewer than 10 percent of those who get the virus are diagnosed. Even with increased testing capacity, tens of millions of Americans are likely to have contracted the coronavirus without knowing it. The new research found those living in neighborhoods with higher shares of Black and Hispanic residents were more likely to have contracted the virus than those living in majority-white neighborhoods. The virus has disproportionately impacted those in big cities and dense urban areas, and minorities are more likely to hold public-facing jobs deemed essential during the pandemic, putting them at increased risk of becoming ill. Evidence of the coronavirus, known in technical terms as seroprevalence, was highest in Northeastern states that suffered the brunt of the first wave of infections. About 1 in 3 people tested in New York showed signs of previous infection, as did a quarter of those tested in the Northeast. More than 1 in 10 people tested in New Jersey, Maryland, Louisiana, Illinois and the District of Columbia showed evidence of infection too. Those tested in Western and Southern states were far less likely to show signs of infection. Just 4.2 percent of residents of Western states and 5.1 percent of those in Southern states had been infected by July – though those states were among the hardest hit during the hot summer months. The study is a stark reminder that the vast majority of Americans are susceptible to the coronavirus as states begin to reopen schools, return to sporting events and congregate indoors as the weather turns chilly. The number of cases confirmed in the United States every day has already begun rising again, to an average of more than 44,000 new infections each day over the last week. Experts expect a new wave of infections, led by cases in Midwestern and Mountain West states, where the weather turns earlier in the year. Already, states such as Wisconsin and Minnesota are showing alarming increases.

New York reports 1,000 daily new COVID-19 cases for first time since June – More than 1,000 people tested positive for the coronavirus in New York on Friday, marking the first time since early June the state has seen a daily number of cases rise above that mark. Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) announced Saturday that of 99,953 tests reported the previous day, 1,005 were positive, a positivity rate of about 1 percent. Four people died Friday, and 527 people in total are hospitalized. The number of daily positive results has ticked up in the Empire State in recent weeks, a trend that could be tied to the rise in business and school reopenings. The number of new cases stalled in the mid-to-high-500s in early September but have hit the 800 and 900-range in recent weeks, according to the COVID Tracking Project. Students in public elementary, middle and high schools are set to return to in-person classes next week. The uptick in positive cases also comes ahead of flu season, when health experts fear the spread of the coronavirus could be exacerbated. “New Yorkers should continue the basic behaviors in the fight against COVID-19, wearing masks, socially distancing and washing hands, as we move into the fall and flu season,” Cuomo said on his website. Officials were quick to note that while the state has ramped up testing, the positivity rate has remained relatively flat. On June 5, the last day with more than 1,000 new daily cases, 78,000 people were tested, compared with nearly 100,000 people Friday. “Yes, NY recorded 1,005 new cases yesterday. However, this was out of 100k tests. In June, the last time NYS recorded 1,000 new cases, NYS was avg. 60k tests/day. Positivity remains flat – under 2% since June 3, 1.1% or below since July 22, 1.0% or below since Aug 4,” tweeted Gareth Rhodes, who is on the governor’s COVID-19 task force. Four states report record number of new COVID-19 cases China vaccinates tens of thousands of people with COVID-19 trials… Still, New York is faring notably better in grappling with the pandemic within its borders than a number of other states that have seen more significant recent spikes in positive tests. The Empire State was hit hard early on in the pandemic, often topping 9,000 positive tests a day in April, but it has since worked to get its transmission rate to one of the lowest in the country.

Four states report record number of new COVID-19 cases – Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon and Utah all hit records for single-day increases in the number of COVID-19 infections Friday as the country surpassed 7 million total cases, according to an analysis by Reuters. Reuters reported that, according to its tally, Wisconsin had the largest number of new infections out of the four states on Friday at 2,629, surpassing its previous record of 2,533 cases last Friday. However, as of Saturday morning, the Wisconsin Department of Health Services website recorded only 2,504 newly confirmed cases Friday. The Minnesota Department of Health recorded 1,191 new cases on Friday, while Utah reported nearly1,370 and Oregon recorded close to 460. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D)announced on Twitter on Friday that the state would be holding free COVID-19 testing in various cities next week amid the state’s spike in cases. Reuters said in its analysis that all Midwestern states excluding Ohio reported more cases over the past four weeks than in the four weeks prior. The outlet also reported that hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients hit new highs in Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming this week. These numbers come after Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) on Tuesdaydeclared a new public health emergency following spikes in cases on college campuses in the state. The governor also extended the state’s mandatory mask mandate. In the order, Evers activated the Wisconsin National Guard to provide support on Election Day and oversee community testing locations. “We need folks to start taking this seriously, and young people especially – please stay home as much as you are able, skip heading to the bars, and wear a mask whenever you go out. We need your help to stop the spread of this virus, and we all have to do this together,” Evers said in a statement on Tuesday.

Are Covid-19 Deaths Falling? – Menzie Chinn – I read some claims that Covid-19 fatalities are declining. I want to – again – remind readers about the hazards of interpreting (1) administrative data, and (2) data revisions. First, there are official tabulations of fatalities due to Covid-19. We should worry about suppression of data in, for instance, Florida, but let’s take the CDC data (which compiles the data provided by authorities) at face value. It’s not clear that all fatalities attributable to Covid-19 are caught by the tracking system. Then we might use “excess fatalities” as a check on the administrative tabulation. Figure 1 below shows how the CDC data on Covid-19 deaths matches the deviation from the fatalities we expect (“excess fatalities”). Figure 1: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), fatalities as tabulated by Our World in Data (dark red). Note excess fatalities differ from CDC series which are bounded below at zero. Note that excess fatalities far exceed the officially designated Covid-19 fatalities for most of the sample. (Seediscussion in latest Economist on excess fatalities around the world.) Only recently have excess deaths fallen below designated Covid-19 fatalities. In fact, both of the CDC series – Covid-19 Fatalities and Excess Fatalities – drop off dramatically in recent weeks. If you didn’t read the notes attached to the CDC spreadsheet, you’d conclude that we’ve won! But inspection of the spreadsheet reveals notes that indicate that the most recent data is incomplete. In fact, as I show in this post, about the four most recent weeks worth of data are going to be substantially revised. I shade this period in green in the above graph. A hint that this is a substantial problem is provided by comparing the trajectory of the unofficial tally compiled by the Our World in Data, which indicates a much smaller decline.The current vintage’s August 8th observations is moved up from the previous vintage so that excess fatalities are rising through the 8th. CDC designated Covid-19 deaths for the week ending August 8 rose 149 going from previous to latest vintage; excess deaths rose 486 from the previous vintage to the current. For more comparisons, see Figure 2. Figure 2: Excess fatalities, 9/23 vintage (blue), 9/16 vintage (tan), 9/9 vintage (green), 9/2 vintage (red), 8/25 vintage (brown). Note excess fatalities differ from CDC series which are bounded below at zero. Source: CDC, various vintages, and author’s calculations.That means it is possible that “excess fatalities” – our proxy measure for Covid-19 fatalities – is still increasing through August 8th (although officially designated Covid-19 fatalities are probably slightly declining, as the Our World in Data series not subject to really large revisions).

WHO Releases Plans for COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution as U.S., China and Russia Opt Out – The World Health Organization (WHO) announced Monday that 64 high-income nations have joined an effort to distribute a COVID-19 vaccine fairly, prioritizing the most vulnerable citizens, as Science reported. The program is called the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access Facility, or Covax, and it is a joint effort led by the WHO, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. The 64 high-income countries bring the total number of participating countries up to 156, but their participation is crucial to financing the 2 billion doses that the WHO hopes to purchase and distribute before the end of 2021, according to STAT News. The 156 economies participating in Covax make up 64 percent of the global population.”COVAX is now in business: governments from every continent have chosen to work together, not only to secure vaccines for their own populations, but also to help ensure that vaccines are available to the most vulnerable everywhere,” said Dr. Seth Berkley, CEO of Gavi, in a WHO statement. “With the commitments we’re announcing today for the COVAX Facility, as well as the historic partnership we are forging with industry, we now stand a far better chance of ending the acute phase of this pandemic once safe, effective vaccines become available.”The United States, Russia and China have not agreed to join Covax. The Trump administration plans to withdraw from the WHO by next July so it refuses to participate in a WHO-led campaign, as STAT News reported. China has not said if it will participate or not, according to The Washington Post.”COVID-19 is an unprecedented global crisis that demands an unprecedented global response,” said WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in a statement. “Vaccine nationalism will only perpetuate the disease and prolong the global recovery. Working together through the COVAX Facility is not charity, it’s in every country’s own best interests to control the pandemic and accelerate the global economic recovery.” At a briefing on Monday, Ghebreyesus denounced vaccine nationalism again, according to The Washington Post. “The race for vaccines is a collaboration, not a contest,” he said to a gathering of reporters. “This is not charity. It’s in every country’s best interest. We sink or swim together.”

The global campaign to reopen schools drives COVID-19 deaths past one million – The world is closing in on a grim milestone of one million deaths from COVID-19 since the onset of the pandemic. The United States, with only 4.25 percent of the world’s population, accounts for nearly one-fifth of the deaths worldwide, or 200,000 people. The reopening of schools is now a focal point of both the efforts by the ruling elites to abandon the most basic precautions against the spread of the virus and the growing resistance of workers and youth throughout the world. In the United States, public health experts are warning of an “apocalyptic fall,” in large measure because of the opening of schools and colleges. In a deliberate effort to conceal this danger, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday retracted passages from guidelines it had released just a few days prior that acknowledged COVID-19 is mainly transmitted through airborne particles. The retracted information included the following warning: “In general, indoor environments without good ventilation increase this risk.” On Monday, 90,000 pre-K and special education students returned to classrooms in New York City, the nation’s largest school district. After a series of protests by teachers and parents last week, including at poorly ventilated schools, Democratic Mayor Bill de Blasio delayed full resumption of in-person learning for hundreds of thousands of students until September 29, one week from today. The reopening of the schools across the country has already led to tragedy, including the deaths of at least three teachers reported last week alone. Colleges and universities have also been hotspots, with at least 90,000 infections over the last few weeks. While this policy has been spearheaded by the Trump administration, it has been backed and implemented by Democrats who run state governments and the largest urban school districts.

Spike in Canada’s COVID-19 infections exposes criminality of back-to-work, back-to-school drive – Over the past two weeks, COVID-19 infections have surged across Canada. The dramatic rise in cases, which in some provinces are now more than three times higher than in August, is the direct product of the ruling elite’s criminal back-to-work and back-to-school policies, which are aimed at guaranteeing corporate profits regardless of the cost in human lives. Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, recorded 425 cases on Monday, its highest daily tally in three-and-a-half months. This followed over 400 cases being registered on both Friday and Saturday. Reflecting the fact that the virus is now spreading out of control, authorities in Ontario have conceded repeatedly for several weeks that they are unable to determine the origin of around 50 percent of the new infections. Around two thirds of current infections are among those under the age of 40, confirming that the government’s reopening of the economy is chiefly to blame. Over 400 people under the age of 20 are currently infected, many of whom are no doubt school children. Two Ontario schools have already been forced to shut down in-person classes, less than two weeks after they reopened for the first time in six months. The virus is also reaching into the political establishment, with both Conservative leader Erin O’Toole and Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet testing positive in recent days. Responding to the rapidly deteriorating situation, Ontario’s right-wing premier, Doug Ford, held a press conference Saturday, where he sought to blame the population at large for the looming disaster. He complained about “wild parties” and lax adherence to social distancing regulations, as he announced that private gatherings will henceforth be limited to 10 people indoors and 25 people outside. However, the government remains adamant that it will not limit school class-sizes or the number of workers in factories and other congested workplaces. Neighbouring Quebec, which was the epicentre of the pandemic last spring with over 5,500 of Canada’s 9,200 deaths, is also experiencing a surge in COVID-19 cases, with 587 new infections announced Monday. More than 400 infections were recorded on both Saturday and Sunday, forcing the province’s right-wing Coalition Avenir Quebec government to announce new restrictions on gatherings in Montreal and Quebec City. Quebec’s director of public health, Horacio Arruda, who played a leading role in enforcing the reopening of schools in late August, said Monday, “We are in the second wave. The situation is serious. The virus is everywhere in Quebec.” But like the Ontario Conservative government, Quebec Premier Francois Legault and his CAQ government are determined to press forward with their reckless drive to “reopen” the economy, and especially the schools, so that parents can be forced to return to the job and resume producing profits for big business.

Madrid hospitals collapsing amid Covid-19 resurgence in Europe – Three months after the Spanish government ended lockdowns amid the Covid-19 pandemic, the resurgence of the virus is again swamping Madrid’s hospitals. Health authorities report 90 percent of beds in Madrid intensive care wards are occupied; 139 people died of Covid-19 there last week. These events are a warning to workers across Europe and internationally: the premature ending of lockdowns is leading to catastrophe. In Spain, there have been 31,428 new Covid-19 cases found and 168 deaths just since Friday. In Madrid, the number of cases has been multiplied by 73 since July, rising from 9 to 659 per 100,000 inhabitants. Similar surges are taking place in every European country, and many European cities are only weeks behind Madrid in the spread of the virus. Working class neighborhoods in the south of the city are hardest-hit by the virus, with double the average rate of infection: Puente de Vallecas has 1,280 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, Villaverde 1,208 and Usera 1,198. Many essential workers highly exposed to Covid-19 live in these areas, where many large families live together in small, cramped apartments. One doctor from the Doce de Octubre hospital in southern Madrid, which has begun canceling scheduled surgeries to deal with the Covid-19 surge, told the press: “The situation is beginning to be unsustainable. We are no longer short of protective equipment or respirators, but we are short of hands. The workforce is very depleted. There is a lack of doctors, nurses, administrators. We have warned of it over and over again, but no one listens.” Not only are hospitals collapsing amid the influx of patients, but contact tracers and testing centers are falling far behind in identifying and testing all those exposed to Covid-19 patients. The right-wing Popular Party (PP) government of the Madrid region, led by Isabel Ayuso, admitted this weekend that its own calculations show it must double the number of contact tracers, but will take a month to hire them all. “Currently we have over 800 contact tracers,” Madrid health counselor Enrique Ruiz Escudero said. “The objective is to have 1,100 by the end of the month and arrive sometime in October at 1,500, so we can do the work of investigating both the infected and their contacts, as well as daily follow-up.”

Volunteers quit COVID-19 vaccine trial in Spain amid serious side effects reported in U.K. study — Some volunteers participating in a Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine trial in Spain have dropped out of the study, days after a serious side effect was reported by a participant of a vaccine trial in the U.K. Spanish clinical pharmacologist Alberto Boronia, the study’s lead investigator, told Reuters that some participants “called to ask us some more detail about the risk of the vaccine, whether what happened with that vaccine had anything to do with the one we are studying, these types of questions.” Last week, British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca announced that trials for its COVID-19 vaccine – AZD1222 – had been halted, after a suspected adverse reaction was reported in one participant. According to The Associated Press, around 18,000 people have received the AstraZeneca vaccine in the U.K., Brazil and South Africa. Some 30,000 volunteers are currently being recruited in the U.S.AZD1222, which is being developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford, is one of the three major vaccines currently undergoing testing around the world. On Saturday, the companyannounced that trials were to resume, “following confirmation by the Medicines Health Regulatory Authority (MHRA) that it was safe to do so.” According to World Health Organization, clinical evaluation of vaccines should be observed in three phases. Phase I involves small-scale studies to determine safety and clinical tolerance. Phase II, which can include up to 1,000 participants, is designed to test which dose the vaccine generates the most antibodies. Phase III is designed to test the vaccine’s efficacy.

BoJo Unveils New National COVID-19 Restrictions As Cases Surge, Warns They Could Last For Up To 6 Months — With Spain and France now grappling with COVID-19 outbreaks that are on par with the case numbers they battled in the spring (though deaths remain significantly lower this time around as doctors have better learned to treat the disease), and Germany imposing more restrictions as it deals with its latest flareup, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has delivered new national COVID-19 restrictions in a statement to the House of Commons. With roughly 30 million Britons already facing some level of local restrictions above and beyond the national requirements, including ‘local lockdowns’, Johnson has announced new restrictions on pubs and the hospitality industry, while asking millions of Britons to return to working from home, if they can. The announcement marks a reversal from Johnson’s urging that commuters start to return to city centers as parts of London, and other British cities, start to look like ghost towns, prompting businesses that serve commuters to fail. New restrictions include the following (per BBG):

• Work from home if possible
• Pubs and restaurants to close by 10pm
• Curbs on large sports events from Oct. 1
• Max 15 guests at weddings
• Fines for breaking rules

But perhaps the biggest changes were on the punitive end. Now, Britons can be fined of up to £10,000 for violations of social distancing restirctions, while fines for first offenses have been doubled. Johnson promised “significantly greater” restrictions if the UK’s “R” rate fails to drop below 1 in the coming weeks. Britons should assume that the restrictions Johnson just announced could be in place for up to 6 months, and that “we will not listen to those who say let the virus rip, nor those who urge a permanent lockdown.” The government, Johnson said, is doing its best to balance saving people’s lives, with preserving livelihoods and the economy.He insisted that “we want to avoid taking further steps”, and urged all Britons to abide by the guidelines and protect the national interest.Some of the measures were previewed earlier by Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove during an interview with Radio 4’s “Today” program. Johnson’s announcement comes as the number of deaths linked to COVID-19 in England and Wales rose for the first time since April: with deaths climbing 27% to 99 in the seven days through Sept. 11 from a week earlier, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday.

Saudi Arabia reports 30 new coronavirus deaths – Saudi Arabia has recorded 552 new confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus, 30 new virus related deaths. The Health Ministry said the new cases bring the total number of COVID-19 patients to 330,798, including 13,572 active cases that are undergoing treatment. Of these, there are 1,121 critical cases, while the health condition of the rest is stable. It added that 30 new deaths have been reported; putting the tally of fatalities, at 4,542. Meanwhile, as many as 1,185 cases have recovered, raising recoveries’ toll to 312,684. It also said that new 48,367 laboratory tests were carried, during the past 24-hours, bringing the total of tests conducted in the kingdom to 6,141,968.

Number of new weekly coronavirus cases at record high, says WHO -The weekly number of new recorded coronavirus infections worldwide was last week at its highest level to date, the World Health Organization has announced, as deaths from Covid-19 in Europe increased by more than a quarter week on week. Almost 1 million people have now died from the coronavirus since it emerged in China at the beginning of the year.With a new seven-day high of just short of 2 million new cases being recorded by the WHO, the latest tally represents a 6% increase over the previous week as well as “the highest number of reported cases in a single week since the beginning of the epidemic”, the UN health agency said. That figure is skewed by the fact testing has become much more widespread globally over recent months.The latest rise in infections, amid a resurgence in cases that has sent countries including the UK and across Europe scrambling to reintroduce restrictions, comes despite a global decrease in the weekly number of deaths from the virus.However the figures showed that deaths from the disease in Europe increased by 27% in the last week, with more than 4,000 recorded. France, Russia, Spain and Britain reported the highest number of new cases in Europe in the past week, while Hungary and Denmark reported the highest relative increase in deaths. According to the WHO, almost 31 million have now been infected by the virus worldwide. The largest concentration of recorded infections continues to be centred in the Americas – which is responsible for almost half of all infections – as the US approaches the grim milestone of 200,000 deaths. Nearly all regions of the world experienced a rise in new cases last week, the WHO said, with infections increasing by 11% and 10% respectively in Europe and the Americas. Only Africa went against the upward trend, reporting a 12% drop in new cases from a week earlier.The figures, released by the WHO late on Monday, have underlined the huge difficulties countries are facing in attempting to bring the spread of the virus under control without an effective and widely available vaccine.Last week, about 37,700 new deaths linked to the virus were recorded worldwide, marking a decline of 10% compared with the previous week. The decline was driven by the Americas, long the hardest-hit region, where new deaths were 22% lower than a week earlier, and by Africa where new deaths dropped 16%. But the Americas still account for half of all reported cases and 55% of deaths in the world. The clear drop in new deaths in the region were driven mainly by decreases in Colombia, Mexico, Ecuador and Bolivia.The US, the world’s worst-hit country, and Brazil, the second-worst, continued to report the highest number of deaths, each reporting more than 5,000 new deaths in the past week. Britain continues to have the highest number of cumulative deaths in Europe, at nearly 42,000 since the beginning of the pandemic.

India’s health minister downplays raging pandemic to conceal ruling elite’s criminal “herd immunity” policy – While India’s coronavirus cases are increasing at an alarming rate, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government’s health minister, Harsh Vardhan, has downplayed the threat posed by the pandemic’s relentless spread. Vardhan’s remarks were aimed at justifying the government’s reopening of the economy, which has also been supported by the state governments led by the opposition parties and has needlessly exposed millions of workers and rural toilers to the virus. Even according to the highly under-reported official figures, India’s total number of COVID-19 infections has passed 5.6 million, while more than 90,000 deaths have been registered. India is second only to the United States in terms of the number of coronavirus cases. However, due to the high level of transmission, with new cases routinely exceeding 90,000 per day, India is expected to surpass the US sooner rather than later. In an hour-long appearance on social media Sunday, health minister Vardhan made the truly absurd claim that community transmission of the virus is not yet occurring in India. “Only 10 states are contributing 77 percent of active cases,” argued Vadhan. “If you see state-specific data, you will find that these cases are concentrated in few districts.” Addressing India’s parliament on the first day of its Monsoon session, on Sept. 14, Vardhan similarly tried to cavalierly downplay the pandemic’s impact. He claimed that 92 percent of cases are reported to be a “mild disease,” and contended India’s response to the pandemic is among the best in the world. “India,” he said, “has been able to limit its cases and deaths to 3,328 cases per million and 55 deaths per million population respectively, which is one of the lowest in the world as compared to similarly affected countries.” Vardhan’s effort to cherry pick statistics that compare relatively well to other countries thanks only to India’s large population of 1.3 billion people cannot disguise the fact that all states and Union territories have recorded increasing infections, and that the pandemic and its economic fallout have produced a social catastrophe. On Saturday, the Delhi government’s health minister, Satyendar Jain, from the Aam Aadmi Party, admitted the vast increase in infections, adding, “We should have accepted there is community spread.” In a further exposure of the bogus character of Vardhan’s denial that community spread is taking place, 30 MPs and 50 members of staff tested positive for the virus prior to the commencement of the new parliamentary session. Even based on the severely under-counted official death toll of more than 90,000, India is currently third globally in terms of coronavirus deaths, behind only the United States and Brazil. Indian authorities are notorious for failing to provide the cause of death in the majority of cases even under non-pandemic conditions, making it all but certain that the actual death toll is far higher.

Russia to supply 17 more countries with COVID-19 drug Avifavir – (Reuters) – Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and its partner Chemrar will supply the COVID-19 drug Avifavir to 17 additional countries, the fund said in a statement on Thursday. Avifavir gained approval from the Russian health ministry in May and is based on Favipiravir, which was developed in Japan and is widely used there as the basis for viral treatments. Clinical trials in Japan and Russia have confirmed those drugs’ efficacy, the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) said in a statement. Russia is pushing hard to take a global lead in the race against the virus. It is already exporting its COVID-19 tests and has clinched several international deals for supplies of its Sputnik-V vaccine. Avifavir has already been delivered to Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. It will now be sent to Argentina, Bulgaria, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Kuwait, Panama, Paraguay, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Slovakia, South Africa, the UAE and Uruguay, the RDIF said. Last week Russia approved R-Pharm’s Coronavir treatment for outpatients with mild to moderate COVID-19 infections and the company said the antiviral drug could be rolled out to pharmacies in the country as soon as this week. The RDIF said favipiravir-based drugs are three to four times cheaper than remdesivir, another COVID-19 treatment.

France sees record new coronavirus infections, with more than 16,000 cases in 24 hours – France reported a new record for daily coronavirus infections on Thursday a day after the government announced new restrictions on bars and restaurants in major cities which have provoked an outcry from local politicians and business owners.Figures from Public Health France showed that 16,096 people had tested positive for Covid-19 over the last 24 hours, a record – even though experts advise that testing during the first coronavirus wave in March-April captured only a fraction of cases.The centrist government of President Emmanuel Macron announced a series of new measures on Wednesday to try to slow the spread of the disease, including the closure of all bars and restaurants in Marseille and earlier closing times in Paris and elsewhere.Faced with criticism from the mayors of Paris and Marseille, legal challenges and calls from some bar owners to defy the new orders, Prime Minister Jean Castex called for “responsibility” and implied his opponents were playing politics.“What I don’t want is that we go back to March,” he said, referring to one of the strictest national lockdowns in Europe in which French people were required to fill out forms to leave their homes.The southern port city of Marseille has been put on “maximum alert”, while Paris and 10 other cities are at “elevated alert” – the second tier on a new sliding scale system of infection control measures.Public gatherings in all of these cities – which includes Bordeaux and Lyon – have been limited to 10 people, and attendance of large sporting events or concerts to 1,000.Marseille’s left-wing mayor objected that she had not been consulted about orders to shut bars, restaurants and sports facilities, and insisted that steps taken locally were starting to slow the outbreak. “I am angry because there was no consultation,” Mayor Michele Rubirola, herself a doctor, told Franceinfo radio. “Why turn the screws when our numbers have been improving for a few days now?” Owners of restaurants, cafes and other businesses in Marseille said they would stage a protest against the new measures on Friday. Bernard Marty of the UMIH union, which represents the hospitality sector, warned of “insurrection,” with several restaurant owners vowing to ignore the closure orders.

COVID-19 cases climbing in US, Europe, Canada | CIDRAP – After a steady decline from summer peaks through the beginning of September, new COVID-19 cases appear to be on the rise again in the United States. According to data from the New York Times, there have been 41,822 new cases per day in the country over the past week, a 14% increase from the previous 2 weeks. Among the states seeing the largest increases in new cases over the past 14 days are Wisconsin, North Dakota, and South Dakota.And the United States is far from the only country seeing a rise in COVID-19 cases as the fall begins. In a televised speech yesterday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the nation is at a “crossroads,” with British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec all entering a second wave of the pandemic, the CBCreports. Trudeau urged Canadians to follow public health guidelines.”I know this isn’t the news that any of us wanted to hear. And we can’t change today’s numbers or even tomorrow’s … but what we can change is where we are in October, and into the winter,” he said.Meanwhile, coronavirus infections are surging throughout Europe, where health officials are warning the coming months could look similar to this past spring.Globally, there are now 32,048,333 confirmed COVID-19 cases, and 979,454 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 dashboard. The United States accounts for 6,962,333 of those cases, with 202,467 deaths. The rise in cases in Italy, which was one of the hardest-hit European countries in the spring, and Germany follow the pattern of increasing coronavirus transmission that officials have observed throughout the continent in recent weeks.As a new report from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) highlights, data from Sep 13 show sustained increases (greater than 10%) in the 14-day COVID-19 case notification in 13 countries: the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Hungary, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and the United Kingdom.”The observed increased transmission levels indicate that the non-pharmaceutical interventions in place have not achieved the intended effect, either because adherence to the measures is not optimal or because the measures are not sufficient to reduce or control exposure,” the ECDC wrote in its Rapid Risk Assessment.The ECDC said in several countries the upsurge is linked to increased testing and “intense transmission” among 15- to 49-year-olds, while in other countries the increase has been among older people and has been accompanied by an increase in hospitalizations and severe cases.The United Kingdom reported 6,634 new COVID-19 cases today, up from 6,178 on Wednesday, according to the BBC, while Reuters reports that the number of new infections in the Netherlands hit a new daily record of 2,544, and Spain reported more than 10,600 new cases. France also set a daily record, with 16,096 new cases, and the number of French COVID-19 patients in intensive care climbed to more than 1,000 for the first time since Jun 8.

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