Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 30August 2020

Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

News posted last week about economic effects related to the coronavirus 2019-nCoV (aka SARS-CoV-2), which produces COVID-19 disease, has been surveyed and some articles are summarized here. We cover the latest economic data, especially fdailed stimules efforts, mortgage delinquencies, and nonpayment of rent and utility bills, plus another batch of articles on schools’ plans for this fall and problems with college campuses reopening. The bulk of the news is from the U.S., with about a dozen articles from overseas at the end. (Picture below is morning rush hour in downtown Chicago, 20 March 2020.) News items about epidemiology and other medical news for the virus are reported in a companion article.

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Fed Unanimously Approves Shift on Inflation Goal, Ushering in Longer Era of Low Rates – WSJ – The Federal Reserve unanimously approved on Thursday a new strategy that will effectively set aside a practice it has followed for more than three decades to preemptively lift interest rates to head off higher inflation. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell unveiled the updates in a speech set for delivery at a virtual symposium on Thursday, the most ambitious revamp of the Fed policy-setting framework since it was first approved in 2012. The practical effect is that it may be a very long time before the Fed considers raising interest rates. Mr. Powell said the changes reflected lessons the central bank officials had learned in recent years about how inflation didn’t rise as anticipated when unemployment fell to historically low levels. “It reflects our view that a robust job market can be sustained without causing an outbreak of inflation,” said Mr. Powell. The Fed had been moving in this direction over the last 18 months, a point made clear in early 2019 when officials abruptly abandoned plans to continue lifting interest rates. Mr. Powell initiated a policy-setting strategy review in late 2018, motivated by the sobering probability that central banks around the world will face greater difficulty than in the past to spur growth due to low levels of interest rates. The coronavirus pandemic-induced recession brought those challenges into stark relief. The Fed cut its benchmark rate twice in March to near zero from a range between 1.5% and 1.75%, and it has bought trillions of dollars of government assets to stabilize markets. The Fed enshrined the conclusions of its yearlong strategy review on Thursday by formally approving a revamp of the central bank’s statement on longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy. Mr. Powell secured agreement on those changes from all 17 officials who participate in the Fed’s rate-setting committee deliberations. For years, the Fed justified plans to slowly withdraw stimulus by warning that waiting too long to do so could provoke an acceleration of price pressures, particularly as the unemployment rate fellow below a level estimated to push prices higher, sometimes referred to as the natural rate of unemployment. The new statement approved Thursday said decisions to raise interest rates would be guided by shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, rather than saying they would be guided by deviations. In other words, the Fed signaled that it wouldn’t raise interest rates simply on the basis of a forecast that inflation will rise, but instead would wait to see evidence that inflation was at the central bank’s 2% target.

Mission Creep at the Fed – WSJ – In a much-anticipated speech this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to lay out a new framework for meeting its often-elusive goal of 2% inflation. When he’s done, he should keep his jacket on, because a proliferation of other missions await. Full employment and low inflation are no longer enough. In recent years the Fed has been asked to prevent financial crises, shrink the trade deficit, tackle climate change and, now, eliminate racial economic disparities. Mission creep poses real risks. The Fed is being asked to meet goals for which its tools are poorly suited and often in conflict. The killing of George Floyd, a Black man, in police custody earlier this year precipitated an intense examination of economic racial disparities. Last month Joe Biden, now the Democratic presidential nominee, called for amendments to the Federal Reserve Act requiring it to “aggressively target persistent racial gaps in job, wages, and wealth.” Congressional Democrats then unveiled a bill charging the Fed with eliminating “racial disparities in employment, wages, wealth, and access to affordable credit.” The bill won’t go anywhere while Republicans control the Senate, but that could change if Democrats take both chambers of Congress and the White House in November. The Fed already influences racial disparities indirectly. Since the 1940s unemployment has always been higher for Black people than white people but the gap widens in recessions and narrows during expansions. This was especially apparent in recent years, before the coronavirus pandemic. As labor markets became historically tight, employers began hiring people they may have previously overlooked because of criminal records, lack of experience, disability, or discrimination. Last year, as overall unemployment hit a 50-year low of 3.5%, the gap between Black and white joblessness dropped below 3 percentage points for the first time since records began in the 1970s. Had the pandemic not intruded, the gap could have narrowed even further as the Fed let unemployment drift lower in an effort to push inflation back to or above 2%. This means the more successful the Fed is at achieving full employment, the more racial gaps will narrow – without any explicit mandate to eliminate them.

Chicago Fed National Activity “Index Suggests Slower, but Still Well-Above-Average Growth in July” –Note: This is a composite index of other data. From the Chicago Fed: Index Suggests Slower, but Still Well-Above-Average Growth in July Led by some moderation in the growth of production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +1.18 in July from +5.33 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July, but all four categories decreased from June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, rose to +3.59 in July from – 2.78 in June. This graph from the Chicago Fed shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index by category.. According to the Chicago Fed:The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories….A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

Q2 GDP Revised up to -31.7% Annual Rate –From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate)Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 31.7 percent in the second quarter of 2020, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 32.9 percent. With the second estimate, private inventory investment and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased less than previously estimated. Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised up to -34.1% from -34.6%. Residential investment was revised up from -38.7% to -37.9%. This was close to the consensus forecast.

Q2 GDP Second Estimate: Real GDP at Record -31.7% – The Second Estimate for Q2 GDP, to one decimal, came in at -31.7% (-31.70% to two decimal places), a major drop from -5.0% (-4.99% to two decimal places) for the Q1 Third Estimate. Investing.com had a consensus of -32.5%. Here is the slightly abbreviated opening text from the Bureau of Economic Analysis news release:Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 31.7 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent.The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “advance” estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 32.9 percent. With the second estimate, private inventory investment and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased less than previously estimated (see “Updates to GDP” on page 2).The decline in second quarter GDP reflected the response to COVID-19, as “stay-at-home” orders issued in March and April were partially lifted in some areas of the country in May and June, and government pandemic assistance payments were distributed to households and businesses. This led to rapid shifts in activity, as businesses and schools continued remote work and consumers and businesses canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see the Technical Note. [Full Release] Here is a look at Quarterly GDP since Q2 1947. Prior to 1947, GDP was an annual calculation. To be more precise, the chart shows is the annualized percentage change from the preceding quarter in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. We’ve also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Also illustrated are the 3.06% average (arithmetic mean) and the 10-year moving average, currently at 1.25. Here is a log-scale chart of real GDP with an exponential regression, which helps us understand growth cycles since the 1947 inception of quarterly GDP. The latest number puts us 23.1% below trend.A particularly telling representation of slowing growth in the US economy is the year-over-year rate of change. The average rate at the start of recessions is 3.27%. All eleven recessions over this timeframe have begun at a lower level of current real YoY GDP.

US GDP Q2 2020 second reading plunged by worst-ever 31.7% — A second reading of the U.S. economy in the second quarter reflected the biggest quarterly plunge in activity on record, though the Covid-induced plummet wasn’t as bad as initially estimated. Gross domestic product from April to June tanked 31.7% on an annualized basis, according to the Commerce Department’s second reading released Thursday. That was revised down from the 32.9% initial estimate of the damage the pandemic-fueled lockdowns had on the economy in the second quarter. Economists surveyed by Refinitiv had expected a decline of 32.5%. Even with the revision, it was still the worst contraction in the economy ever recorded. The drop in GDP was more than triple the previous all-time decline. The economy contracted at a 5% pace in the first quarter. The economy fell into recession in February. After-tax profits without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustment, which correspond to S&P 500 profits, dropped at a rate of 11.7%. Profits decreased at a pace of 13.1% in the first quarter. When measured from the income side, the economy contracted at a 33.1% rate in the last quarter. Gross domestic income (GDI) declined at a rate of 2.5% in the January-March period. The average of GDP and GDI, also referred to as gross domestic output and considered a better measure of economic activity, decreased at a 32.4% rate last quarter. That compared to a 3.7% pace of decline in the first three months of the year.

US 2nd quarter GDP revised to 31.7% contraction – (Kyodo) — The U.S. economy shrank an annualized 31.7 percent in real terms in the April-June period amid the coronavirus pandemic, slightly less than an earlier estimate of a 32.9 percent dive, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The contraction in terms of inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, which followed a 5.0 percent drop in the preceding quarter, still represents the steepest quarterly decline since comparable data became available in 1947. According to the department, private consumption, which accounts for two-thirds of the world’s largest economy, dropped 34.1 percent in the second quarter, revised slightly upward from a fall of 34.6 percent. The figure followed a 6.9 percent decline in the January-March period. Nonresidential private investment, a measure of business spending, dropped 26.0 percent after a decline of 6.7 percent. Exports dived 63.2 percent after dropping 9.5 percent in the preceding quarter. Imports tumbled 54.0 percent in the second quarter against a 15.0 percent drop in the first quarter.

Q3 GDP Forecasts – From Merrill Lynch: 2Q GDP was revised up to -31.7% qoq saar in the second release. 3Q GDP tracking rose by 2pp to 19%following recent strong capex and housing data. [August 28 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report: The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 15.3% for 2020:Q3. [August 28 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 28.9 percent on August 28, up from 25.6 percent on August 26. [August 28 estimate]It is important to note that GDP is reported at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). A 25% annualized increase in Q3 GDP, is about 5.7% QoQ, and would leave real GDP down about 5.1% from Q4 2019. The following graph illustrates this decline. This graph shows the percent decline in real GDP from the previous peak (currently the previous peak was in Q4 2019).This graph is through Q2 2020, and real GDP is currently off 10.2% from the previous peak. For comparison, at the depth of the Great Recession, real GDP was down 4.0% from the previous peak.The black arrow shows what a 25% annualized increase in real GDP would look like in Q3. Even with a 25% annualized increase (about 5.7% QoQ), real GDP will be down about 5.1% from Q4 2019; a larger decline in real GDP than at the depth of the Great Recession.

We Begin the Final Act – – I see no getting out of this one. By a year from now, very likely earlier, probably with the election as catalyst, there will come extreme events. We will see monsters.I don’t know if it yet will culminate in the nuclear war we know is inevitable, but the coming tribulations will be similar in scope. In the US, the true Second Civil War, or overt suspension of the constitution and martial law with totalitarian police accompaniment, becomes ever more likely. The best outcome among those at all likely is that the US undergoes catastrophic social collapse, centrifugal violence and fragmentation. All this is beginning to happen while the Westernized globe convulses in the throes of history’s most extreme manifestation of mass insanity. Obviously the masses aren’t deranged because of Covid-19. (Covid-19 has caused nothing, anywhere.) Look at it this way: The global situation, especially that of the domestic US, is much worse than that in Europe in 1939. In 1939 no one in Europe wanted war except for a small handful of powerful men. Today in the US the great majority more or less wants war, war with Russia or China or Iran or in Venezuela or any combination of these at once. Many are rabid for war.Sure, they think it won’t affect them personally (otherwise they wouldn’t be so gung ho), which is just one of the many metrics of American stupidity. But that only intensifies their avidity.And then looming over all this is the bloody sunset of escalating ecological blowback, imminent ecological collapse and the collapse of modern civilization which must accompany it. While most remain impervious to conscious knowledge of this gathering kinesis, none can escape the rising sense of doom amid the collective unconscious. This sense indelibly sears us with the eschatology of the time, and no doubt played the primary role in heating the pressure cooker of the modern mass psychology which is catastrophically blowing off some of its steam with its ecstasy of mass insanity over SARS-COV-2. Are you ready to face death, very soon? If not I suggest preparing your mind and soul. Of course we’ll struggle to survive. But like they say, while we strive for the best we must prepare for the worst.

Coronavirus Lifts Government Debt to WWII Levels – Cutting It Won’t Be Easy – WSJ -As countries world-wide boost spending to battle the new coronavirus, government debt has soared to levels not seen since World War II.Among advanced economies, debt rose to 128% of global gross domestic product as of July, according to the International Monetary Fund. In 1946, it came to 124%. For now, governments shouldn’t worry about mounting debt and instead focus on bringing the virus under control, said Glenn Hubbard, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush.”The war analogy is exactly the right one,” said Mr. Hubbard, dean emeritus of Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business. “We were and are fighting a war. It’s a virus, not a foreign power, but the level of spending isn’t the problem.” After World War II, advanced economies brought down debt quickly, thanks in large part to rapid economic growth. The ratio of debt to GDP fell by more than half, to less than 50%, by 1959. It is likely to be harder this time, for reasons involving demographics, technology and slower growth.Through the late 1950s, economies soared. Growth averaged around 5% a year in France and Canada, almost 6% in Italy and more than 8% in Germany and Japan. The U.S. economy grew almost 4% a year. “We’d be lucky to have half that over the next decade,” said Nathan Sheets, a former undersecretary of the Treasury for international affairs and now chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income, the investment-management business of Prudential Financial Inc. In recent years, the U.S., U.K. and Germany have grown about 2% a year. In Japan and France, it has been closer to 1%. Italy has barely grown at all.Though vanquishing the virus could bring a surge of optimism, the post-World War II boom would be difficult to re-create. Population growth has slowed in advanced economies, the workforce is shrinking as societies age and productivity is slowing.

“The Fiscal Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Cities: An Initial Assessment” – In a paper that will appear in the September issue of the National Tax Journal, [we] evaluate the likely fiscal impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on a sample of 150 major U.S. central cities. Although we discuss the additional Covid-19 related costs that cities will face, our primary focus is on forecasting the fiscal year 2021 revenue shortfalls attributable to the coronavirus-induced recession. Based on past trends we projected FY 2021 revenues in each FiSC under the assumption that there was no pandemic (and hence no recession). For each source of revenue in each city, we then project the percentage change in revenue due to the Covid-19 pandemic under two scenarios – less severe and more severe. Figure 1 illustrates the revenue sources of the average FiSC and indicates the number of cities relying on each revenue source. The mix of revenue sources varies substantially across cities. Property taxes provide less than 35 percent of tax revenue in 8 cities, but over 90 percent of tax revenue in 20 cities. Intergovernmental revenue, from state and federal aid, make up under 20 percent of general revenue in some FiSCs, but over half of general revenue in other FiSCs. There is substantial empirical evidence that due to the way property taxes are administered, changes in the market value of real property takes about three years to be reflected in changes in property tax revenues. So, even if reduced demand for dense residential locations and particularly for central city office space declines sharply, the impact on property tax revenues won’t be felt for several years. We thus assumed that property tax revenue would either not change or would be reduced by 0.5 percent in fiscal year 2021. Local sales tax revenues fell sharply during the Spring reflecting both strong supply-side effects caused by widespread economic shutdowns as well as demand-side effects. Our estimates of the percentage shortfalls in sales tax revenues in the FiSCs utilizing local sales taxes depends on our estimates of wage declines in each city and state-specific sales tax elasticity estimates. Under our more severe scenario, the average FiSC will face a FY 2021 sales tax revenue shortfall of 11.7 percent. However, we forecast that 15 FiSCs will experience sales tax reductions in excess of 20 percent.To forecast reductions in state aid, we relied on estimates of state government revenue shortfalls generated by Moody’s Analytics and information on the size of state governments rainy day fund balances. Under our two scenarios, we predict declines in general revenue in the average FiSC of 5.5 percent and 9 percent, respectively. Under the more severe scenario, 47 FiSCs would experience revenue reductions of 10 percent or more. In dollar terms, these percentages generate revenue shortfalls of $34.2 and $55.3 billion, respectively. Expanding these estimates to all local governments in the U.S. yields aggregate revenue shortfalls of $102.9 and $165.2 billion. These are substantial cuts, which would lead to significant declines in government employment and public service provision.

New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly – WSJ – In response to the novel and deadly coronavirus, many governments deployed draconian tactics never used in modern times: severe and broad restrictions on daily activity that helped send the world into its deepest peacetime slump since the Great Depression.The equivalent of 400 million jobs have been lost world-wide, 13 million in the U.S. alone. Global output is on track to fall 5% this year, far worse than during the financial crisis, according to the International Monetary Fund.Despite this steep price, few policy makers felt they had a choice, seeing the economic crisis as a side effect of the health crisis. They ordered nonessential businesses closed and told people to stay home, all without the extensive analysis of benefits and risks that usually precedes a new medical treatment.There wasn’t time to gather that sort of evidence: Faced with a poorly understood and rapidly spreading pathogen, they prioritized saving lives. Five months later, the evidence suggests lockdowns were an overly blunt and economically costly tool. They are politically difficult to keep in place for long enough to stamp out the virus. The evidence also points to alternative strategies that could slow the spread of the epidemic at much less cost. As cases flare up throughout the U.S., some experts are urging policy makers to pursue these more targeted restrictions and interventions rather than another crippling round of lockdowns.”We’re on the cusp of an economic catastrophe,” said James Stock, a Harvard University economist who, with Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina and others, is modeling how to avoid a surge in deaths without a deeply damaging lockdown. “We can avoid the worst of that catastrophe by being disciplined,” Mr. Stock said.The economic pain from pandemics mostly comes not from sick people but from healthy people trying not to get sick: consumers and workers who stay home, and businesses that rearrange or suspend production. A lot of this is voluntary, so some economic hit is inevitable whether or not governments impose restrictions. Disentangling voluntary and government-ordered effects is hard. One study, by economists Austan Goolsbee and Chad Syverson at the University of Chicago, says government restrictions account for just 12% of the decline in consumer mobility in the U.S.; another, by a team led by economists Kosali Simon at Indiana University and Bruce Weinberg at Ohio State,says they account for 60% of the loss of employment.Still, because of the close connection between the pandemic and economic activity, many epidemiologists and economists say the economy can’t recover while the virus is out of control. “The virus is going to determine when we can safely reopen,” Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in April. The Federal Reserve said in late July that “the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.”

The Way Out Through State and Local Aid: Bipartisan group of economists breaks down why local governments need aid now – If a bipartisan group of the nation’s top economists were trapped in an elevator with Republican members of Congress, what would they tell them about the need for state and local aid?“Towns across the country are already hemorrhaging red ink, and substantial federal aid is needed now in order to derail the worsening economic shock brought on by the pandemic.”That was the consensus among economists the Economic Policy Institute brought together recently to discuss the urgent need for state and local aid. The panel included:

• Gbenga Ajilore, Senior Economist, Center for American Progress
• Glenn Hubbard, Dean Emeritus and Russell L. Carson Professor of Finance and Economics, Columbia University
• Jason Furman, Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy, Harvard Kennedy School and Harvard University Economics Department
• Josh Bivens, Director of Research, Economic Policy Institute
• Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics

Heather Long, Economics Correspondent at the Washington Post, was the moderator. Long asked each economist to provide their elevator pitch for why federal aid was so important now.”If you had 30 seconds in an elevator with a Republican lawmaker to try to convince them why we need state and local aid now, what would you say?,” she asked.Here’s what they said.

Meadows says Trump willing to sign $1.3 trillion coronavirus relief bill – White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said Friday that President Trump would sign a coronavirus relief package totaling $1.3 trillion, an increase over the $1.1 trillion proposed by Senate Republicans. “The president right now is willing to sign something at $1.3 trillion,” Meadows told reporters at the White House, saying that the figure had been offered privately to Democrats. He had previously said the White House was willing to go “north” of $1 trillion but did not offer a precise figure. He said, however, that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has stood firm in her demand for a $2.2 trillion relief package. Meadows and Pelosi spoke Thursday afternoon, resuming negotiations on the next coronavirus package that have been stalled for three weeks. Pelosi said Thursday that she offered Meadows a concession by proposing a $2.2 trillion bill, down from a $2.4 trillion offer earlier this month. “We have said again and again that we’re willing to come down and meet them in the middle – that would be $2.2 trillion – and when they’re ready to do that, we’ll be ready to discuss and negotiate the particulars,” Pelosi told reporters in the Capitol following the phone call with Meadows. The disagreements largely center over the amount in funding for enhanced unemployment insurance benefits and assistance for state and local governments. Talks between Meadows, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Pelosi, and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) broke down in early August, causing Trump to sign a spate of executive orders aimed at deferring the payroll tax, putting a federal pause on evictions and extending the lapsed enhanced unemployment benefits for a period of time. Meadows on Friday said it is “incumbent on us to act,” placing the blame on Pelosi for holding up negotiations by not agreeing to a smaller relief package that would cover areas where they have agreement.

White House suggests $1.3 trillion coronavirus aid bill; Pelosi says not enough – Reuters (Reuters) – President Donald Trump is willing to sign a $1.3 trillion coronavirus relief bill, a top aide said on Friday, but Democratic House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the sum was not enough to meet the needs of the American people. Trump said later that Pelosi was only interested in bailing out states run by Democrats, casting doubt on chances of reviving stalled talks for another round of fiscal stimulus. The new figure was put forward by White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, marking a $300 billion increase from an initial $1 trillion offer from the White House and Senate Republicans. Three weeks after talks on Capitol Hill broke down without a deal on legislation to help Americans suffering from the coronavirus pandemic, Meadows said the Republican president was “right now willing to sign something at $1.3 trillion.” Hours later, Pelosi in a statement repeated her call for a $2.2 trillion bill and said Meadows’ offer would not meet the needs of American workers and families. Pelosi said, among other things, the Republicans “are rejecting the funding needed for testing and tracing to crush the virus and safely reopen schools and the economy.” She said she hoped the Republicans would accept the Democratic offer and resume negotiations. Asked about talks between Pelosi and Meadows about another stimulus package, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on a flight to Washington from New Hampshire: “My impression is she wants to give no stimulus, all she wants is bailout for badly run Democrat states.”

Democrats and White House are at a ‘tragic impasse’ on coronavirus stimulus after Pelosi-Meadows call – House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows failed to crack a stalemate over coronavirus relief Thursday when they spoke at length for the first time in weeks. After a 25-minute phone call between the pair, Pelosi issued a statement saying “this conversation made clear that the White House continues to disregard the needs of the American people as the coronavirus crisis devastates lives and livelihoods.” She said the sides stood at a “tragic impasse” after the Trump administration again did not meet her demand to roughly double the price of its aid proposal to $2.2 trillion. “Democrats are willing to resume negotiations once Republicans start to take this process seriously. Lives, livelihoods and the life of our democracy are at stake,” the California Democrat said in the statement. A spokesman for Meadows did not immediately respond to a request to comment on the call. Negotiations between Democrats, led by Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and the White House, led by Meadows and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, collapsed earlier this month amid disagreements on unemployment aid, state and local government relief, and school funding, among other issues. Congress has failed to pass a fifth package to try to combat health and economic crises created by the pandemic even after a $600 per week extra jobless benefit, a federal eviction moratorium and the chance to apply for a small business loan program expired. As Pelosi pushes for a broader approach to stimulus, Republicans are crafting a more narrow bill that they could soon distribute in Congress, sources told CNBC. The plan, which would cost roughly $500 billion, would address unemployment insurance, a new authorization for small business loans, school funding, and Covid-19 testing, treatment and vaccines.

$454 Billion Treasury Fund Goes Mostly Unused – WSJ – As Democrats and Republicans haggle over the next coronavirus-relief bill, a giant pot of money remains largely unused. In March, Congress gave the Treasury Department $454 billion to backstop aggressive new lending efforts by the Federal Reserve to distressed businesses and state and local governments. Five months later, more than half – $259 billion – is still uncommitted. The Treasury money was billed as risk capital by Trump administration officials who said at the time that it could be leveraged to support as much as $4 trillion in lending by the Fed. As of last week, the central bank had lent just $16.4 billion through programs set up with the money. “Here we are negotiating another fiscal package, and we have this money just sitting there,” said Ernie Tedeschi, a former Treasury official and economist at Evercore ISI. Frustration is growing among some lawmakers and business groups that so much money has gone unallocated at a time when Republicans and Democrats alike agree that more is needed – though they differ on how much. Sen. Mike Crapo (R., Idaho) has introduced legislation directing the Treasury to lend more aggressively. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) wants to repurpose $200 billion for long-term investments in communities of color. Fed and Treasury officials say the money has served a valuable purpose because it helped unfreeze credit markets panicked by the onset of the coronavirus pandemic early this year. They add that unused lending capacity may yet be needed if the economy takes a turn for the worse. “The extraordinary Federal Reserve response supported by Treasury’s equity capital has played a vital role in restoring liquidity and funding to credit markets, and enhancing the flow of credit to American businesses, households, nonprofit organizations, and state and local governments,” a Treasury spokesperson said in an email.

Trump says he saved 51 million jobs in pandemic. Economists, U.S. officials say otherwise – (Reuters) – Standing before half a dozen American flags during a press conference at his country club in Bedminster, New Jersey, President Donald Trump heralded what has become a central plank of his argument for re-election in November: his administration’s handling of the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. “Through the historic relief package that I signed into law, we saved over 50 million American jobs,” he said in the Aug. 15 remarks. Referring to his Democratic opponents, he said, “They don’t like these kind of numbers because they think it’ll hurt them in the election.” The estimate that the $660 billion taxpayer-funded Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) saved some 51 million jobs has been trumpeted by the Republican Party, its Congressional leadership and the president’s reelection campaign. On Monday, Trump touted it again at a rally west of Charlotte, North Carolina, site of the Republican National Convention. However, the PPP likely did not save 51 million jobs, or anywhere close to it, according to Reuters interviews with economists and an analysis of the program’s data. Half a dozen economists put the number of jobs saved by the initiative at only a fraction of 51 million – ranging between one million and 14 million. “I don’t think there is an economist who would say that the program has saved 50 million jobs,” said Richard Prisinzano, who was a financial economist at the U.S. Department of the Treasury for 13 years before leaving in 2017. His rough estimate, Prisinzano said, is between five and seven million jobs saved, based on his own adjustments to other researchers’ work at MIT and elsewhere. Officials in Trump’s own administration give varying explanations for the 51 million figure. In interviews with Reuters, officials from the Treasury Department and the Small Business Administration(SBA), which oversee the PPP program, said the 51 million refers to the total number of workers reported by businesses approved for a loan – not the number of jobs that were saved.

Exclusive: FDA commissioner disputes Trump, says no ‘deep state’ thwarting vaccine – (Reuters) – The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) does not harbor “deep state” elements, the agency’s head told Reuters on Monday, rejecting criticism from President Donald Trump that staff there were trying to delay a coronavirus vaccine. Dr. Stephen Hahn said he was completely confident that FDA workers were focused solely on the interests of the American people during the coronavirus pandemic. Without evidence, Trump on Saturday accused members of the so-called “deep state” working within the FDA of complicating efforts to test COVID-19 vaccines in order to delay results until after the Nov. 3 presidential election. “I have not seen anything that I would consider to be ‘deep state’ at the FDA,” Hahn told Reuters in an interview. Trump’s use of the term “deep state” appears to refer to long-serving government employees he believes are determined to undermine his agenda. Hahn said he had a solid relationship with Trump, a Republican whose re-election chances in November have been dampened by public discontent over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Trump’s tweet, which tagged the commissioner, said: “The deep state, or whoever, over at the FDA is making it very difficult for drug companies to get people in order to test the vaccines and therapeutics. Obviously, they are hoping to delay the answer until after November 3rd.”

Trump and FDA Misrepresent Data as They Tout Blood Plasma Treatment – In a news conference on Sunday, President Trump alongside Stephen Hahn, the head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and Alex Azar, the secretary for Health and Human Services (HHS), touted the efficacy of blood plasma in treating COVID-19 as they announced its approval for a treatment. And yet, the data they cited was misrepresented and built on a shaky foundation, forcing Hahn to walk back his assertion that it was an effective treatment, a rare about-face for an agency that is supposed to be an anchor of non-partisan public trust, according to Bloomberg. In fact, just days before the FDA approved the treatment, a group of top health officials that included Anthony Fauci and Francis Collins said the emerging data on blood plasma treatments was too weak to justify its approval. Yet President Trump, who had also accused the FDA as being part of the “deep state” that was delaying treatments until after the election, touted blood plasma treatment as reducing deaths by 35 percent. The problem is, nobody knows where that number came from. As The New York Times reported, it was not found in the FDA’s official authorization letter, nor a 17-page memo written by FDA scientists, nor in the Mayo Clinic analysis cited by the administration. “For the first time ever, I feel like official people in communications and people at the FDA grossly misrepresented data about a therapy,” said Dr. Walid Gellad, who leads the Center for Pharmaceutical Policy and Prescribing at the University of Pittsburgh, to The New York Times. In an interview with new agencies, one of the Mayo Clinic study’s main authors, Dr. Arturo Casadevall of Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, expressed confusion. “Do I know where the 35 percent comes from? No,” he said, as The New York Times reported. “You need to correct the 35 lives saved per 100 sick with COVID-19 so people understand that was absolutely wrong, Steve,” wrote Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in California, on Twitter, as Bloomberg reported. “That there is no evidence to support that. That there is no evidence at this juncture to support *any* survival benefit.” As the criticism of the 35 percent number piled up, Hahn listened. He acknowledged its validity last night in a tweet. “I have been criticized for remarks I made Sunday night about the benefits of convalescent plasma,” Hahn wrote. “The criticism is entirely justified. What I should have said better is that the data show a relative risk reduction not an absolute risk reduction.” – Dr. Stephen M. Hahn (@SteveFDA) August 25, 2020 The treatment in question, convalescent blood plasma therapy, uses antibody-rich plasma from people who have recovered from the disease to help ramp up the immunity of sick people so they can develop their own antibodies. However, there are few randomized controlled trials to demonstrate its efficacy, according to STAT News.

Under pressure from the White House, CDC issues guidelines for less COVID-19 testing – On Monday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) modified its guidelines for testing for COVID-19. Previously, the CDC recommended that people exposed to close contacts of confirmed cases be tested “because of the potential for asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission.” This recommendation was changed this week to “if you have been in close contact of a person with a COVID-19 infection for at least 15 minutes but do not have symptoms, you do not necessarily need a test unless you are a vulnerable individual or your health care provider or state or local public health officials recommend you take one.” The change in guidelines has been met with a barrage of anger and dismay among various health experts and physician groups who have repeatedly stated that the key to suppressing the infection is broad, mass testing of the population. Former Baltimore Health Commissioner, Dr. Leana Wen, told CNN, “I’m concerned that these recommendations suggest someone who has had substantial exposure to a person with COVID-19 now doesn’t need to get tested. This is key to contact tracing, especially given that up to 50 percent of all transmission is due to people who do not have symptoms. One wonders why these guidelines were changed – is it to justify continued deficit in testing?” According to sources speaking to the New York Times and CNN, the order came from the Trump administration during a closed meeting without the presence of Dr. Fauci. The CDC has remained silent on providing any explanation on its sudden policy change and directed all questions to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). HHS Assistant Secretary Admiral Brett Giroir released a callous and nonsensical statement that said, “This guidance has been updated to reflect current evidence and best public health practices and to further emphasize using CDC-approved prevention strategies to protect yourself, your family, and the most vulnerable, of all ages.” Speaking later to CNN, Giroir added that the guidelines were authored by Dr. Fauci, White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx, and Stephen Hahn, head of the Food and Drug Administration. However, Fauci, who was in surgery during the meeting where the changes were approved, told the media, “I am concerned about the interpretation of these recommendations and worried it will give people the incorrect assumption that asymptomatic spread is not of great concern.”

New CDC Guidelines Say Asymptomatic People Don’t Need COVID-19 Tests. That Worries Health Experts – Health experts are sounding the alarm about new testing guidelines that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued earlier this week. The CDC overhauled its guidelines and said that people who are not displaying symptoms of COVID-19 infection from the novel coronavirus do not need testing. That includes asymptomatic people who have also had exposure to the virus, according to The New York Times. The new guidelines say: If you have been in close contact (within 6 feet) of a person with a COVID-19 infection for at least 15 minutes but do not have symptoms: You do not necessarily need a test unless you are a vulnerable individual or your health care provider or State or local public health officials recommend you take one. And: If you do not have COVID-19 symptoms and have not been in close contact with someone known to have a COVID-19 infection: You do not need a test.The list of people who do not necessarily need a test is far-reaching, including people who have been in high transmission areas. According to CNN, the CDC website said previously: “Testing is recommended for all close contacts of persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Because of the potential for asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission, it is important that contacts of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection be quickly identified and tested.” Health experts raised the alarm about these new guidelines, noting that people tend to be most contagious during the asymptomatic period when they first contract the virus. During that time, it is especially important to identify and isolate people who have the virus to control potential spread. The CDC even noted in its pandemic planning scenarios that 40 percent of infections are asymptomatic and 50 percent of virus transmissions take place before symptoms are detected, according to CNN. “This is potentially dangerous,” said Dr. Krutika Kuppalli, an infectious disease physician in Palo Alto, California, to The New York Times. She added that narrowing the testing criteria to only people with obvious COVID-19 symptoms means “you’re not looking for a lot of people who are potential spreaders of disease. I feel like this is going to make things worse.” The new guidelines are a curious departure from the advice of many health experts who have said that more widespread and frequent testing is necessary to identify potential clusters. That advice is particularly resonant for vulnerable and disenfranchised communities that have had limited access to testing, but high rates of infection, according to The New York Times.

California, Florida, New York, Texas will not follow new U.S. COVID-19 testing plan – (Reuters) – Several large U.S. states are not heeding new federal health officials’ calls to reduce COVID-19 testing of some exposed to the virus, joining a broad rebuke of the Trump administration by public health leaders. Arizona, California, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Texas, New Jersey and New York all plan to continue to test asymptomatic people who have been exposed to COVID-19, despite new guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggesting that such tests may not be needed. “The current Texas guidance recommends testing for all close contacts of a confirmed case because it allows for early case identification among people who are at a higher risk of infection,” a spokesman for the Texas Department of State Health Services in a statement. “There’s not a planned change at this point.” California and New York made similar statements. The Florida Department of Health said asymptomatic testing was continuing while the new CDC recommendations were evaluated, and Texas also said it would evaluate. The CDC said this week that people exposed to COVID-19 but not symptomatic may not need to be tested, shocking doctors and politicians and prompting accusations the guidance was politically motivated. Even before the CDC guidance, coronavirus testing in the United States had dropped. The United States tested on average 675,000 people a day last week, down from a peak in late July of over 800,000 people a day. Nationally, cases have fallen for five weeks in a row but infections are surging again in the U.S. Midwest with four states reporting record one-day increases in cases on Thursday as the U.S. death toll climbed above 180,000. The CDC had previously recommended testing of all people who had close contact with someone who was diagnosed with COVID-19.

Fauci says Pence listens to him even though he’s ‘the skunk at the picnic’ -Vice President Pence was praised by Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, for his willingness to listen to the latter’s dire warnings about the scope of the U.S.’s COVID-19 outbreak in an interview published Monday. Answering emailed questions from The Washington Post, Fauci told the newspaper that Pence was doing his best to serve in his new role as head of the White House’s coronavirus task force, on which Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, is a member. “I am sometimes referred to as ‘the skunk at the picnic’ but Pence never directly asks me, the skunk, to be quiet or leave,” said Fauci in response to the questions, adding that Pence was “a truly decent person, and very smart, who is trying to do his best in a very difficult and fluid situation.” “Some may say that Pence and his team are ‘too ideological’ but they are after all political people. This is not unexpected,” Fauci added, according to the Post. . Fauci’s praise for Pence comes amid criticism aimed at the Trump administration, particularly President Trump, over the U.S.’s response to the coronavirus outbreak and the effectiveness of the U.S.’s response so far. The U.S. has reported more total confirmed cases than any country, and ranks fourth behind several South American countries in terms of total deaths per 100,000 citizens. Trump himself has been accused by Democrats and others of downplaying the number of deaths across the country as a result of the virus and has made numerous inaccurate claims about it, including the assertion that 99 percent of COVID-19 cases end up being “harmless.” There have now been more than 5.6 million confirmed cases of the virus within the U.S.’s borders, and 176,223 deaths from the disease have been reported.

GOP Senators Demand FDA Explain Hydroxychloroquine Stance Amid Positive Studies And Physician Advocates -The debate over hydroxychloroquine has faded from the forefront as big tech has worked to suppress information and silence the voices of doctors and researchers promoting it. However, it appears the controversy over the drug has encouraged some senators to take a closer look, and it seems they are asking the FDA the right questions.Senators Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), and Mike Lee (R-Utah) sent a letter to FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn explicitly asking about the agency’s handling of information regarding the drug and its use during the pandemic.Doctors and researchers advocating for hydroxychloroquine are recommending it be used in high-risk outpatients.Texas Congressman Louis Hohmert, who was recently diagnosed positive for COVID-19, tweeted just this morning about the benefits of hydroxychloroquine:Hydroxychloroquine protocols worked for me. Americans suffering from the Wuhan Virus deserve the right to consult with their doctors and try HCQ if deemed a safe and appropriate fit. Keep Big Govt out of this. Thank you Dr. Risch for your work and research on this.In the letter to Hahn, the senators are asking about specific actions the agency has taken regarding hydroxychloroquine. The current FDA guidance is that it should not be used outside the hospital setting for COVID-19, and the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) has been withdrawn. Given the safety profile of the medication and the fact it is used daily on an outpatient basis around the world for malaria prevention, malaria treatment, rheumatoid arthritis, and lupus, this guidance is ridiculous on its face.The recommended duration of hydroxychloroquine treatment for COVID-19 is between five and seven days at FDA approved dosages. In a sane world, a doctor may prescribe drugs off-label at approved dosages if they think a medication may be useful for a patient’s symptoms. However, 2020 is not sane, and now the FDA interference has led to medical boards, hospital systems, and politicians banning the use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19. These actions are unprecedented in the doctor-patient relationship.Finally, these senators are standing up for that relationship and demanding clarity from the FDA.

The Truth Is Paywalled But The Lies Are Free – Paywalls are justified, even though they are annoying. It costs money to produce good writing, to run a website, to license photographs. Alot of money, if you want quality. Asking people for a fee to access content is therefore very reasonable. You don’t expect to get a print subscription to the newspaper gratis, why would a website be different? I try not to grumble about having to pay for online content, because I run a magazine and I know how difficult it is to pay writers what they deserve. But let us also notice something: the New York Times, the New Yorker, the Washington Post, the New Republic, New York, Harper’s, theNew York Review of Books, the Financial Times, and the London Times all have paywalls. Breitbart, Fox News, the Daily Wire, the Federalist, the Washington Examiner, InfoWars: free! You want “Portland Protesters Burn Bibles, American Flags In The Streets,” “The Moral Case Against Mask Mandates And Other COVID Restrictions,” or an article suggesting the National Institutes of Health has admitted 5G phones cause coronavirus – they’re yours. You want the detailed Times reports on neo-Nazis infiltrating German institutions, the reasons contact tracing is failing in U.S. states, or the Trump administration’s undercutting of the USPS’s effectiveness – well, if you’ve clicked around the website a bit you’ll run straight into the paywall. This doesn’t mean the paywall shouldn’t be there. But it does mean that it costs time and money to access a lot of true and important information, while a lot of bullshit is completely free. Now, crucially, I do not mean to imply here that reading the New York Times gives you a sound grasp of reality. I have documented many times how the Times misleads people, for instance by repeating the dubious idea that we have a “border crisis” of migrants “pouring into” the country or that Russia is trying to “steal” life-saving vaccine research that should be free anyway. But it’s important to understand the problem with the Times: it is not that the facts it reports tend to be inaccurate – thoughsometimes they are – but that the facts are presented in a way that misleads. It was changes in emphasis that were needed, because the facts were there in black and white. This means that a lot of the most vital information will end up locked behind the paywall. And while I am not much of a New Yorker fan either, it’s concerning that the Hoover Institute will freely give you Richard Epstein’s infamous article downplaying the threat of coronavirus, but Isaac Chotiner’s interview demolishing Epstein requires a monthly subscription, meaning that the lie is more accessible than its refutation. Possibly even worse is the fact that so much academic writing is kept behind vastly more costly paywalls. A white supremacist on YouTube will tell you all about race and IQ but if you want to read a careful scholarly refutation, obtaining a legal PDF from the journal publisher would cost you $14.95, a price nobody in their right mind would pay for one article if they can’t get institutional access. Libraries have to budget carefully because subscription prices are often nuts. A library subscription to the Journal of Coordination Chemistry, for instance, costs $11,367 annually.

Columbia Journalism Review Publishes Detailed Expose on Gates Foundation Buys Influence With Journalists – Yves Smith – Kudos to the Columbia Journalism Review for putting the muscle behind having Tim Schwab perform an in-depth investigation into how the Gates Foundation has lavished money on various not-for-profit news organizations, like NPR, as well as other media outlets in the US and abroad, to secure favorable, even at times one-sided coverage of its pet initiatives. Another successful leg of the Gates Foundations’ efforts is donating to fact-checkers, which in turn incorrectly brand articles that question Gates Foundation influence-buying or specific programs as inaccurate or conspiracy theories. Needless to say, this piece is particularly welcome given that Bill Gates is getting undue attention in the press for his views on Covid programs, particularly vaccines, as if medical policy patronage has rendered a software squillionaire particularly qualified to discuss public health. In fact, as Schwab points out:During the pandemic, news outlets have widely looked to Bill Gates as a public health expert on covid – even though Gates has no medical training and is not a public official.PolitiFact and USA Today (run by the Poynter Institute and Gannett, respectively – both of which have received funds from the Gates Foundation) have even used their fact-checking platforms to defend Gates from “false conspiracy theories” and “misinformation,” like the idea that the foundation has financial investments in companies developing covid vaccines and therapies. In fact, the foundation’s website and most recent tax forms clearly show investments in such companies, including Gilead andCureVac. … . Writing in De Correspondent, freelance journalists Robert Fortner and Alex Park examined the limitations and inadvertent consequences of the Gates Foundation’s relentless efforts to eradicate polio. In HuffPost, the two journalists showed how Gates’s outsize funding of global health initiatives has steered the world’s aid agenda toward the foundation’s own goals (like polio eradication) and away from issues such as emergency preparedness to respond to disease outbreaks, like the Ebola crisis. (This narrative has been lost in the current covid-19 news cycle, as outlets from the LA Times to PBS to STAThave portrayed Gates as a visionary leader on pandemics.) I strongly urge you to read Schwab’s devastating account in full. Let me present part of three threads to entice you. The first is on how Gates giving has turned NPR into a foundation mouthpiece:

Jared Kushner made a deal with Russia for ventilators, but every machine was faulty, report says -Jared Kushner brokered a deal with Russia for 45 ventilators to be brought to the US to help with the coronavirus crisis, but they all turned out to be faulty, a new report says.Two senior Trump administration officials told The Daily Beast that Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and one of his senior advisers, helped to secure an equipment order that included the ventilators.They were unloaded from a Russian-marked plane in New York in March, as the COVID-19 outbreak was intensifying in the state.The report said the order was carried out by the State Department but was sped along thanks to Kushner’s relationship with Kirill Dmitriev, the CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, a sovereign wealth fund of the Russian government. According to The Daily Beast, half of the equipment was paid for by the fund, which is subject to US sanctions limiting its interactions with US entities but not blocking them entirely. A Russian Aerospace Forces plane carrying medical equipment at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport on April 1. TASS/TASS via Getty ImagesThe delivery arrived but fell short of expectations. Officials in New York and New Jersey told The Daily Beast that the ventilators didn’t work.Other outlets had reported on problems with the ventilators; two US officials told ABC News in May that they could not be used immediately because of voltage issues.ABC also reported that the shipment contained thousands of medical supplies that are not commonly used by hospitals, like household cleaning gloves, and that Russia billed the US almost $660,000 for them.

ICE reports over 230 active COVID-19 infections at Arizona facility – Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has reported that there are more than 230 active coronavirus cases in one of their facilities in Arizona. As of Saturday, La Palma Correctional Center in Eloy, Ariz., has reported a total of 356 cases in the facility since the start of the pandemic, of which 233 are currently in isolation in ICE custody. In total, 850 of the 21,066 people in ICE custody across the country are currently in isolation after testing positive for coronavirus. Since the start of the pandemic 5,300 people in ICE custody have tested positive for COVID-19. An additional 45 ICE detention staff have tested positive as well. La Palma has the highest number of cases by far, followed by the Stewart Detention Center in Georgia, which currently has 108 cases. Only La Palma and Stewart have more than 100 cases, according to ICE data. ICE did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Hill. ICE spokeswoman Yasmeen Pitts O’Keefe told CBS News the agency upped their testing at La Palma by testing 1,000 detainees, most of whom were asymptomatic. Florence Immigrant & Refugee Rights Project, an immigration advocacy group in Arizona, has long advocated for the release of people in ICE custody. “The government either does not have the interest or the ability to contain this virus inside detention centers, and people’s lives are on the line,” Laura St. John, legal director of the Florence Project, said in a statement. Florence and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) filed a federal lawsuit earlier this year on behalf of migrants detained at La Palma who claimed they were forced to clean the center where they were being held as they were fed rotten food and denied protection from the coronavirus.

While the US is reeling from COVID-19, the Trump administration is trying to take away health care coverage – The Trump administration has had its hands full responding to the coronavirus pandemic, but that hasn’t stopped it from taking steps to reverse much of the gains in health insurance coverage since the Affordable Care Act was passed in 2010. In an article today on The Conversation, we discuss two major actions by the Trump administration that may would typically have made huge headlines but may have gotten lost in the COVID shuffle – 1) attempting to block grant Medicaid and 2) supporting a Supreme Court case that could take down the ACA.Despite shaky legal footing, the administration has moved ahead with its Healthy Adult Opportunity guidance, issued to state Medicaid directors in January, that allows for states to opt-in to a per capita cap or program-level block grant for Medicaid. Oklahoma was going to be the first to implement this until a ballot initiative to expand Medicaid passed in July.Block granting Medicaid has been a goal of Republicans for years, including during the ACA repeal efforts in Congress, but has never been able to be passed into law. This end run around federal law has been loudly challenged by legal scholars but is only one plank of the administration’s plans.Texas v. California will be heard in November, a case in which 17 Republican-led states are trying to take down the ACA through again dubious legal arguments about severability of the individual mandate from the rest of the law. The administration has abdicated its role to defend the law and is arguing in favor of striking it down, trying to accomplish through the courts what it has failed to do through Congress. As we wrote,If the ACA is struck down, that means the loss of coverage for preexisting conditions, the return of annual or lifetime caps, or policies being revoked for cancer patients. Those who don’t earn much money still deserve good health care. Nearly everyone will feel it if the Trump administration and Texas are successful, regardless of whether your health insurance is through your work, HealthCare.gov, Medicaid or Medicare.This fall, the Supreme Court and the voters will have a lot to say about how access and affordability of health insurance coverage look in 2021 and beyond. Read the whole piece here.

Threadbare’ US System Denounced as Study Shows 12 Million Lost Employer-Tied Health Care During Pandemic – Medicare for All advocates had new reason to decry the U.S. system that ties the healthcare for many to employment after a new study released Wednesday showed an estimate 12 million Americans have lost their employer-sponsored insurance coverage since the Covid-19 pandemic hit earlier this year.”Because most U.S. workers rely on their employer or a family member’s employer for health insurance, the shock of the coronavirus has cost millions of Americans their jobs and their access to healthcare in the midst of a public health catastrophe,” Josh Bivens, co-author of the study and director of research at the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), said in a statement announcing the findings.”Tying health insurance to the labor market is always terribly inefficient and problematic, but becomes particularly so during times of great labor market churn,” said Bivens.The think tank pointed to a clear way to prevent job loss from equaling loss of health insurance.”Delinking health insurance with jobs should be a top policy priority,” EPI tweeted in a thread about the study and the authors’ takeaways. “The most ambitious and transformational way to sever this link is to make the federal government the payer of first resort for all health care expenses – a ‘single payer’ plan like #MedicareForAll.”But despite growing popularity of such a system among the American public, neither the Republican nor Democratic party platforms embrace the idea, despite continued advocacy from more progressive members of Congress and activists.Rep. Ilhan Omar, (D-Minn.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) introduced legislation this month to cover out-of-pocket healthcare expenses of all Americans during the pandemic by authorizing a wealth tax. Entitled the “Make Billionaires Pay Act,” the measure would be funded by taxing the wealth gains accrued by billionaires since March as millions of Americans lost their jobs. Both Sanders and Omar have co-sponsored Medicare for All legislation in the past, and the EPI study’s authors urged lawmakers to act quickly.”The coronavirus pandemic has exposed how incomplete and threadbare the U.S. safety net and social insurance system is,” said Ben Zipperer, an economist and study co-author. “In order to help millions of Americans during the pandemic and beyond, policymakers must take swift action to address the inequities and inefficiencies in our health care system.”EPI also noted online Wednesday that a single-payer system would not be a job killer, as its opponents like to assert.”Medicare for All is a hugely ambitious policy, and there’s a lot to debate about it. But the idea it would have a massive job-killing effect is a fake story,” Bivens said in an explainer video EPIshared on Twitter Wednesday.

Democrats leave 20 million unemployed in the lurch – Three weeks after the US Congress went on vacation and allowed federal supplemental unemployment benefits to expire for 20 million workers, cutting their benefits by $600 a week, the House of Representatives stabbed the unemployed in the back a second time. The Democratic Party-controlled House reconvened in the midst of its August recess, passed emergency legislation on the US Postal Service, and then adjourned without taking any action on the plight of those thrown out of work by the coronavirus crisis. Speaker Nancy Pelosi declined to act on the appeal by nearly 100 members of her own caucus, who sent a letter asking that the reconvened House take up legislation to restore federal extended benefits for tens of millions of workers. The refusal of Pelosi and other leading Democrats to take action on the unemployment crisis shows that the Democratic Party’s claim to uphold the interests of working people is a political fraud. The Democrats jump to attention when Wall Street demands a bailout, but they have no time for workers facing poverty, hunger, eviction and homelessness. Saturday’s House session followed the Democratic National Convention, where there was virtually no reference to the cutoff of federal extended benefits during four days of rhetorical bilge about the “decency” and “empathy” of Joe Biden. The alleged tender feelings of the Democratic presidential nominee evidently do not extend to those who lost their federal extended benefits on July 31. He made no mention of them in his acceptance speech, nor did he urge the House to take action on their behalf. The silence of the Democratic National Convention will be matched this week when the Republican National Convention meets to renominate the president. Trump will stage his own coronation with nonstop declarations about the “great economy” and his prowess in “making America great again.” But the only thing “great” about the present state of affairs is the great scale of the social need and mass suffering to which both corporate-controlled parties are entirely indifferent. Two weeks ago, Trump signed an executive order purporting to revive the extended federal benefits at a much lower level – $300 a week, a cut of 50 percent – to be financed through the disaster relief fund of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The White House capped the resources to be made available at a total of $44 billion, compared to the $70 billion a month that the supplemental benefits were paying out. In a best-case scenario, this would limit the duration of the $300-a-week benefits to about five weeks. But even this derisory assistance will be further reduced if natural disasters, such as the twin hurricanes expected to strike the Louisiana Gulf Coast this week, or the California wildfires, place sizeable demands on FEMA. Only one state, Arizona, has begun paying out benefits using the FEMA funding. Fourteen other states have been approved to do so but have not yet been able to carry through the necessary preparatory and administrative work to put the payments into operation.

In the Covid-19 Recession, Europe Props Up Jobs While the U.S. Props Up Workers – WSJ -Karren Madere and Andrea Knebel are both victims of the Covid-19 recession. Ms. Madere was laid off in June from her job at a travel-management company, where she negotiated hotel-room rates for corporate clients. Ms. Knebel was sent home in April from her job as a business consultant at an auto-parts factory.Ms. Madere, 61 years old, has since applied for nearly 200 jobs. She spends her days looking for jobs online and follows the news, hoping Congress will agree on another economic-relief package for laid-off workers. By contrast, Ms. Knebel’s lifestyle hasn’t changed all that much. She spends her time cycling around the picturesque valley where she lives, buying items for her house, and meeting friends for virtual breakfasts and lunches. She isn’t looking for work. She doesn’t worry about how to pay for health care, unlike Ms. Madere, who expects to go without health insurance for a few months. The difference: Ms. Madere lives outside Baton Rouge, La.; Ms. Knebel lives close to the Black Forest, in southern Germany. Their circumstances reflect the divergent policies the U.S. and most of Europe have used to support their labor markets. Like tens of millions of Europeans, Ms. Knebel is on furlough from her job at engineering group Robert Bosch GmbH. Though she didn’t work for nearly four months, and now works only some days, she continued throughout to receive roughly 90% of her normal salary, two-thirds of it paid by the German government.”I don’t feel that I lost that much financially,” said Ms. Knebel, 54, who lives with her teenage daughter.

Facial Recognition and Masking in the COVID-19 Era – An Unintended Consequence – With many jurisdictions imposing mandatory masking for their citizenry, it was just a matter of time until someone figured out that there would be an unintended consequence to this policy. Apparently, the United States Department of Homeland Security, the government arm in charge of protecting the homeland, has realized that there is a downside to masking. In many parts of the globe, facial recognition has become one of law enforcement’s key crime fighting tools. The combined use of CCTV and artificial intelligence technology has allowed governments around the world to track individuals and, since the early days of the War on Terror been adopted as a means of tracking and ultimately apprehend and neutralize potential terrorists. In the case of the United States, Ban Facial Recognition has “tracked the trackers” and created this map which shows where facial recognition surveillance is occurring in the United States: Research has shown that facial recognition technology already has issues with non-white, non-male identification as shown in this quote from a 2019 study conducted by the National Institute of Standards and Technology:”Using the higher quality Application photos, false positive rates are highest in West and East African and East Asian people, and lowest in Eastern European individuals. This effect is generally large, with a factor of 100 more false positives between countries. However, with a number of algorithms developed in China this effect is reversed, with low false positive rates on East Asian faces. With domestic law enforcement images, the highest false positives are in American Indians, with elevated rates in African American and Asian populations; the relative ordering depends on sex and varies with algorithm.We found false positives to be higher in women than men, and this is consistent across algorithms and datasets. This effect is smaller than that due to race.

Long delays at U.S.-Mexico border crossings after new travel restrictions – Americans who regularly cross the border from Mexico reported long wait times to re-enter the United States on Monday after U.S. officials imposed new COVID-19-related restrictions on cross-border travel by U.S. citizens and permanent residents. The government closed lanes at select ports of entry on the border and began conducting more secondary checks to limit non-essential travel and slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, a U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) representative said on Friday. According to CBP data, wait times at some border crossings have doubled or tripled. Many crossing points now have only one or two lanes of traffic open. On Monday, border-crossers reported wait times of up to 5-6 hours. The U.S. ambassador to Mexico, Christopher Landau, said “substantial delays” over the weekend were due to border agents focusing on “essential travel,” and said many people were crossing for other reasons such as shopping, dining and visiting families. “Such irresponsible behavior is exacerbating the health crisis,” he said on Twitter. Jess Herr, 30, a U.S. citizen who lives in the Mexican border city of Tijuana and works at a restaurant in San Diego in southern California, said she usually wakes up at 4 a.m. and crosses by car in about an hour to make her shift. When she saw the long line of cars on Monday, she decided to cross by foot, although she still had to wait five hours to cross the border. At the Cordoba bridge joining the Mexican city of Ciudad Juarez with El Paso in Texas, only two lanes were open to motorists. Border-crossers who usually waited about 45 minutes told Reuters they had waited more than three hours to cross, and some were late for work. Melissa Reyes, general manager for Border Partners, a nonprofit organization, said she had waited 4-1/2 hours to cross the border back into the United States over the weekend after going to Puerto Palomas in Mexico to do some shopping. Normally the wait time would be 15-20 minutes. The new restrictions announced last week would prove challenging for people whose lives span the border, she said. “It’s gonna be pretty devastating,” she said. The U.S.-Mexican border is the world’s busiest land border.

U.S. Immigration Agency Cancels Planned Furloughs – WSJ – U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services has called off a planned furlough of more than 13,400 employees set to begin on Monday, forestalling a cut of more than two-thirds of its staff that would have brought much of the agency’s work to a halt.Joe Edlow, the agency’s deputy director and day-to-day leader, announced the cancellation Tuesday in an email to staff and in a subsequent statement. Mr. Edlow said USCIS leadership decided to cancel the furloughs in light of higher-than-expected demand in immigration applications and aggressive spending cuts.USCIS, unlike most other federal agencies, funds itself almost entirely through the fees it collects. In May, the agency said it was considering a planned furlough, after citizenship and immigration applications fell precipitously in March and April because of the coronavirus pandemic. The agency asked Congress for an emergency $1.2 billion infusion, but hopes of a bailout faded when Congress failed to strike a deal on a Covid-19 relief package last month.”Once it became clear that Congress was not going to act before Aug. 30, we increased our efforts to find additional savings by making significant spending cuts, and we have begun taking further proactive measures to sustain our federal workforce until Congress acts,” Mr. Edlow wrote. Without congressional intervention, he added, the public should expect longer wait times, including for citizenship applications to be processed.

Kimberly Guilfoyle gives dark convention address warning of Democratic destruction of country – Kimberly Guilfoyle, a former Fox News host and top surrogate of President Trump, delivered a grim, forceful speech at the Republican National Convention on Monday, accusing Democrats of working to “destroy this country” and “enslave” Americans with a “liberal victim ideology.” The speech, delivered in a near-constant shout, painted a dark picture of the United States if former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), win the White House in November. “They want to destroy this country and everything we have fought for and hold dear,” Guilfoyle, who is dating Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., said. “They want to steal your liberty, your freedom. They want to control what you see and think and believe so that they can control how you live.” “They want to enslave you to the weak, dependent, liberal victim ideology to the point where you will not recognize this country or yourself,” she added. At one point in her address, Guilfoyle cast the coming presidential election as a “battle for the soul of America,” echoing a phrase that Biden has used repeatedly throughout his campaign for the White House. “Presidential leadership is not guaranteed,” Guilfoyle said. “It is a choice. Biden, Harris and the rest of the socialists will fundamentally change this nation.” “They will defund, dismantle and destroy America’s law enforcement,” she added. “When you are in trouble and need police, don’t count on the Democrats.”

Beleaguered Texas Republicans’ latest threat: Coronavirus – Texas was already one of the nation’s most-watched battlefields this year. Then came the pandemic. Republicans and Democrats are brawling over a dozen House seats in the state’s most expansive political landscape in recent memory – swing districts that also happen to encompass some of the worst-hit coronavirus hot spots in Texas. Roughly 70 days before the election, Republican incumbents have been forced on the defensive by the pandemic, as Democrats pitch their health care platform and try to tag the GOP as irresponsible and anti-science. Democrats are looking to flip as many as seven GOP seats, spanning the suburbs from San Antonio to Dallas to Houston, with several more in play that were hardly seen as competitive a few months ago. But the coronavirus, which has killed more than 11,000 Texans and infected a half-million more, has permeated the tightest races on issues from mask orders to health insurance to school openings, according to candidates and strategists in Texas. “Every day, I talk to somebody who has Covid in their family … When I talk to voters, that is definitely the number one issue to them,” said Sri Preston Kulkarni, who is running again for a sprawling seat outside Houston that he narrowly lost to GOP Rep. Pete Olson, who has since announced his retirement. Health care had already been a top issue for Kulkarni in 2018. This time, the former foreign service officer is holding campaign events with an epidemiologist and an expert in vaccine development; meanwhile, his opponent – GOP sheriff Troy Nehls – once compared local mask mandates to “a communist dictatorship.” though he has toned down the rhetoric since cases surged in Texas. The virus has also roiled the race of freshman Rep. Chip Roy, a vocal GOP critic of infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci who has openly questioned Fauci’s warnings against reopening the economy too soon and is now in a “toss-up” race with Democrat Wendy Davis for a district in the suburbs of Austin.

FDIC’s quarterly report shows extent of pandemic’s hit to bank profits – The nation’s banks weathered a tumultuous second quarter as the economy continued to feel the brunt of the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Tuesday. Banks reported a decline in quarterly net income decline of 70% from a year earlier to $18.8 billion, driven by surging loan-loss provisions that grew over 380% grew to $61.9 billion. However, quarterly profits were slightly above the industry’s first-quarter earnings total. Beyond economic headwinds, the FDIC also cited the adoption of the current expected credit losses accounting methodology as a leading driver of loan-loss provisions. Among the 253 banks that have adopted CECL, loan-loss provisions swelled by nearly 420% from a year earlier, while non-CECL banks reported an increase of 207%. At the same time, the banking industry is being challenged by narrowing net interest margins. The average net interest margin fell by 58 basis points from a year earlier to 2.81%. Net interest income declined 5.4% to $131.5 billion. The FDIC emphasized that much of the decline was “driven by the three largest institutions, as less than half (42.2 percent) of all banks reported lower net interest income from a year ago.” “This is the lowest NIM ever reported in the Quarterly Banking Profile,” the FDIC said in its report. Meanwhile, the FDIC continues to report huge deposit inflows at banks, with total deposit balances increasing by $1.2 trillion from the first quarter of 2020. Deposit inflows have been so strong, the FDIC reported, that the reserve ratio of the agency’s Deposit Insurance Fund had fallen below its legal minimum: from 1.39% in the first quarter to 1.30% in the second quarter. The FDIC is statutorily required to maintain a ratio above 1.35%. “I want to emphasize that the Fund has more money than at any time in the FDIC’s history, and the reduction in the reserve ratio was solely a result of the unprecedented increase in bank deposits,” FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams said in prepared remarks. A $1.4 billion increase in the fund pushed its balance to $114.7 billion. “We believe deposit growth is likely to normalize in the upcoming quarters and for the reserve ratio to rise about 1.35 without any need to modify assessment rates in the near term,” McWilliams said. In addition to earnings, credit quality is also taking a hit from the pandemic. The FDIC reported a 22% increase in net charge-offs from a year earlier to $15.6 billion, which was the largest percentage increase since the first quarter of 2010. The charge-off rate rose 7 basis points to 0.57%.

Regulators finalize rule changes to help banks weather pandemic – Banking regulators finalized three rules Wednesday that have been in place on an interim basis since earlier this year to address the coronavirus pandemic. The Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency together approved final rules codifying temporary changes to the community bank leverage ratio, automatic restrictions on capital distributions and a measure delaying a new accounting standard for expected credit losses. Congress in the $2 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act temporarily lowered the community bank leverage ratio – a simplified measure that institutions with assets of less than $10 billion can use instead of more complex capital requirements – by 1 percentage point to 8%. To further lighten the load, the regulatory agencies said that community banks choosing to use the CBLR would only need to raise it to 8.5% in 2021. The 9% minimum would be reinstated the following year starting Jan. 1. Regulators also finalized an interim rule issued in March that placed automatic restrictions on bank capital distributions, including share repurchases, dividend payments and bonus payments. The rule is intended to make those limitations more gradual. That rule will go into effect Jan. 1. Martin Gruenberg, an FDIC board member and former chairman of the agency, voted against finalizing that rule, arguing in a statement that it “puts the banking system at greater risk.” “This is a misconceived rulemaking that allows a banking organization to continue to make capital distributions, such as dividends, that would weaken the capital position of the bank during a period of extraordinary economic stress,” he said. The agencies additionally finalized an interim rule from March that will allow financial institutions to push back the implementation of the current expected credit losses, or CECL, accounting standard for two years, followed by a three-year transition period. The final rule will apply to all financial institutions, unlike the interim rule, which only applied to banks that were required to convert to CECL this year. The CECL delay will take effect once it is published in the Federal Register, the agencies said in a release.

Sharp divide between large and small credit unions in PPP lending – Just two of the top 20 credit unions that issued loans through the Paycheck Protection Program have assets under $1 billion, but those two institutions made enough PPP loans to equal 20% or more of their total loan volumes. New analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence ranks the top 20 credit unions for PPP loans. The Small Business Administration closed the program on Aug. 8 and S&P compiled its data on Aug. 17 using second-quarter call reports from the National Credit Union Administration. Leading the pack were Mountain America Credit Union in Sandy, Utah, with $346.8 million in PPP loans and nearly $11 billion in assets, followed by the $1.3 billion-asset Greater Nevada CU in Carson City, which had $185.2 million in PPP loans. Third on the list was Indiana-based Notre Dame FCU, with about $940 million in assets and $179.6 million in PPP loans, or 24.44% of its total loans. Among those under $1 billion, Moline, Ill.-based Vibrant CU reported $152 million in PPP loans, or 20% of its total loans. Many of the nation’s largest credit unions were not among the top 20 PPP lenders. Only four institutions on the list, including Navy Federal and BECU, have assets of more than $10 million. With just under 7,000 loans, Mountain America was the busiest credit union PPP lender, followed by Navy Federal, with 5,157 loans. Four CUs on the list had fewer than 1,000 PPP loans, and Technology Credit Union had just 436 loans, though those totaled just over $99 million. Not surprisingly, credit unions’ PPP loan volumes pale in comparison with some of the nation’s largest banks. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, PNC, Truist Financial and Wells Fargo are the five biggest lenders, according to S&P, accounting for more than $91 billion in loans as of Aug. 8. Through the end of June, credit unions as an industry originated about $8.34 billion, according to the firm. Some credit unions have joined the ranks of other PPP lenders by opting to sell off those loans rather than keep them on the books.

An Unprecedented 1,640 CEOs Departed in 2019; Now Execs Are Dumping Stock at Highest Pace Since 2006 — Pam Martens – A rather fascinating picture is emerging that suggests that things were not as rosy in the U.S. economic landscape prior to the pandemic as President Donald Trump and his Director of the National Economic Council, Larry Kudlow, would have the public believe.Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. has been tracking CEO departures for the past 12 years. Its Vice President, Andrew Challenger, called the numbers for 2019 “staggering.”It was the highest number since their surveys began in 2002. A total of 1,640 CEOs headed for the exits last year. That was 156 more CEOs than those who left their post in 2008 – the year that Wall Street blazed a scorched earth trail through the U.S. economy.The number of CEOs that did not leave on their own accord last year was 101 out of the 1,640. According to the study, 15 CEOs left over allegations of professional misconduct; 20 left amid a scandal, “typically under investigations for financial wrongdoing or other legal issues”; 24 saw their positions terminated; 39 left due to a merger or acquisition; 3 left due to bankruptcy.CEOs of old, established companies have the clearest view of what is happening in the overall economy. They can compare sales growth to prior years and prior decades. They can spot negative or positive trends in the economy far ahead of the economic reports that the federal government releases to the public.When an outsized number of CEOs decide to cash out their stock options, grab their golden parachutes, and flee their corner offices – something smells.On top of that fishy smell comes a report from TrimTabs Investment Research that corporate insiders have reaped more than $50 billion in stock sales since May, putting insider selling on a pace not seen since 2006 – two years before the stock market and economic crash of 2008.The above two reports on corporate executive behavior are compatible with Wall Street On Parade’s reports that show that the current financial crisis began in the fall of 2019 – months before the first case of COVID-19 had emerged anywhere in the world. What triggered the financial crisis? The same kind of liquidity crisis on Wall Street that ushered in the crisis of 2008.

Jeff Bezos is now worth a whopping $200 billion – Jeff Bezos was already the world’s richest man. Now his net worth has skyrocketed once again, setting another new record. On Wednesday, the Amazon CEO’s wealth reached an estimated $202 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires index, as the company’s shares soared. That’s up about $87 billion since January. The explosive growth in Bezos’ fortune is being driven by his holdings in Amazon (AMZN). The company’s stock is up about 25% over the last three months and 86% so far this year, according to data from Refinitiv. Bezos, who founded Amazon in 1994, keeps breaking records with his wealth. In 2017, he became the richest person on the planet. And last month, his estimated net worth jumped to almost $172 billion, marking a new global high. Looking beyond everyday solutions to the post-Covid-19 green recovery. The pandemic might have lowered emissions, but it’ll take more than this temporary fix to have a lasting impact. The billionaire isn’t alone – other tech tycoons have been getting much wealthier throughout the pandemic as demand for their companies’ goods and services continue to grow. Earlier this month, Facebook (FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg was dubbed a “centibillionaire,” as his wealth surpassed $100 billion. Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk, with a net worth of $96 billion, is close to achieving that extraordinary status. Microsoft (MSFT) founder Bill Gates has already made it. And Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook also became a billionaire recently as shares of his company – now the world’s most valuable – have soared. Cook is a rare example of an executive who didn’t help found their company breaking into the ranks of the super rich.

CFPB seeks comment on impact of credit card rules – The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is soliciting public feedback on trends in the consumer credit card market and specifically how a 2009 landmark credit card reform law has affected small issuers. The Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure Act, known as the CARD Act, reduced retroactive interest rate hikes on existing card debt as well as exorbitant fees for late payments and shortened billing cycles. The Federal Reserve later finalized a set of rules between 2009 and 2011 to implement parts of the law, which amended Regulation Z of the Truth in Lending Act, a statute that aims to protect consumers from predatory practices. As part of a mandate that requires the CFPB to review rules 10 years after they are enacted, the agency issued a request for information Tuesday to examine how the CARD Act rules have affected both the credit card market and small issuers. The CFPB may decide to revise or rescind some of the regulations as a result of the review, the agency said in a press release. Specifically, the CFPB is asking for the public to comment on the economic impact of the CARD Act rules on “small entities” and how those effects could be alleviated. The agency is also asking for input on how issuers have changed their pricing, marketing, underwriting, deferment and forbearance practices; what trends are emerging in the debt settlement industry; and what unfair, deceptive or abusive practices exist in the credit card market. The CFPB’s review of the credit card market takes place every two years. Although the reviews were not done as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the agency said in its request for information that it understands that the feedback it receives will reflect the conditions brought on by the pandemic. Comments will be accepted for 60 days after the request for information is published in the Federal Register.

Agencies extend freeze on foreclosures and evictions to end of year – The Federal Housing Finance Agency is extending its moratorium on foreclosures for single-family loans and evictions for real-estate-owned properties until the end of the year. Previously, the moratorium for properties backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was set to expire Aug. 31. It is the third time the agency has prolonged the moratorium, which was intended to help homeowners and renters affected by the coronavirus pandemic. The Federal Housing Administration also announced Thursday that it is extending its foreclosure and eviction moratorium until the end of the year. The Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act also provided for an eviction moratorium on single-family, non-REO properties, but that moratorium expired July 24. “To help keep borrowers in their homes during the pandemic, FHFA is extending the [government-sponsored] enterprises’ foreclosure and eviction moratorium through the end of 2020,” FHFA Director Mark Calabria said in a press release. “This protects more than 28 million homeowners with an enterprise-backed mortgage.” The CARES Act, which Congress passed in March, allowed for a 60-day moratorium on foreclosures and evictions on properties financed through federally backed mortgages. But the FHFA and the FHA also imposed their own moratoriums independent of the CARES Act. The FHFA said it had estimated that Fannie and Freddie would take losses of $1.1 billion to $1.7 billion as a result of the foreclosure and eviction moratorium. The government-sponsored enterprises are imposing an “adverse market fee” on refinances starting Dec. 1 in an attempt to recoup projected losses from its coronavirus-related actions.

Fannie and Freddie pushing COVID refi fee to December – – The Federal Housing Finance Agency is delaying a Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-imposed fee on refinanced mortgages set to start next week until Dec. 1 after intense backlash from the mortgage industry. The government-sponsored enterprises said Aug. 12 they would start charging an additional “adverse market fee” of 0.5% on refis due to the economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic. But the short notice and estimates that the fee could lead to significant costs for consumers looking to refinance riled both lawmakers and mortgage lenders. They urged the FHFA to reconsider the policy. The fee “is necessary to cover projected COVID-19 losses of at least $6 billion at the enterprises,” the FHFA said in a news release Tuesday. The fee will go into effect as planned in December unless the agency can find another way to recoup projected losses. Fannie and Freddie will also exempt mortgage loans with a balance of less than $125,000 from the fee when it goes into effect Dec. 1, the agency said. The policy resembles a similar fee that the companies implemented during the financial crisis. However, the two situations are somewhat different. The companies imposed the 2008 fee as they faced dramatic losses from the housing crash. Soon after they announced that fee, the GSEs were placed in government conservatorship, and they remain in conservatorship. By comparison, today the GSEs already have the financial backing of the U.S. government, and the mortgage sector to date has limited effects from the coronavirus pandemic. The companies’ second-quarter earnings were a combined $4.33 billion. Fannie CEO Hugh Frater and Freddie CEO David Brickman pushed back on some of the criticism of the fee last week, issuing a joint statement arguing that lenders could eat the cost of the fee themselves instead of passing it on to borrowers. “Contrary to much of the criticism we have received since making this announcement, this will generally not cause mortgage payments to ‘go up,’ ” they said. “The fee applies only to refinancing borrowers, who almost always use a refinancing to lower their monthly rate.”

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased in July, Highest Since Feb 2013 – Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in July was 3.12%, up from 2.48% in June. Freddie’s rate is up from 0.61% in July 2019.This is the highest serious delinquency rate since February 2013. Freddie’s serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.These are mortgage loans that are “three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure”. Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes – and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.

MBA Survey: “Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines Slightly to 7.20%” — Note: This is as of August 16th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines Slightly to 7.20% The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 1 basis point from 7.21% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 7.20% as of August 16, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 3.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans….”The share of loans in forbearance declined for the tenth week in a row, but the rate of improvement has slowed markedly. The extremely high rate of initial claims for unemployment insurance and high level of unemployment remain a concern, and are indications of the challenges many households are facing,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “While new forbearance requests remain low, particularly for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, the pace of exits from forbearance has declined for two straight weeks.”By stage, 37.91% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 61.34% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 0.75% are forbearance re-entries. This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time. Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last ten weeks.The MBA notes: “Weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased to 0.10 percent from 0.11 percent the previous week.”There hasn’t been a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits.

Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans “Improve Slightly” -Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance. This data is as of August 25th. From Forbearances Improve Slightly After holding flat last week, the total number of mortgages in active forbearance improved slightly. Forbearances ticked down by just 1,000 over the past week, making the second consecutive week of basically zero net improvement. This is not unexpected, as improvement has slowed toward the end of each of the past several months. It has generally followed a stair-step progression with the most improvement seen at the beginning of the month and slowing as we move toward the end. According to Black Knight’s McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker, as of August 25, 3.9 million homeowners remain in active forbearance, representing 7.4% of all active mortgages. This is unchanged from last week (or the week prior). Together, they represent $828 billion in unpaid principal. Of these, 72% have had their terms extended.As we’ve discussed previously, there are a number of factors that continue to represent significant uncertainty as we move forward, including the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the expiration of expanded unemployment benefits last month. CR Note: I’m still expecting another disaster relief package soon, but we might see an increase in forbearance activity in the coming weeks as we wait for additional relief.

NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Decline in Households Paying Rent –From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 90 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of August 20 : The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 90 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by August 20 in its survey of 11.4 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country.This is a 2.1-percentage point, or 237,056 -household decrease from the share who paid rent through August 20, 2019 and compares to 91.3 percent that had paid by July 20, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price.”Lawmakers in Congress and the Administration need to come back to the table and work together on comprehensive legislation that protects and supports tens of millions of American renters by extending unemployment benefits and providing desperately needed rental assistance,” said Doug Bibby, NMHC President. “The industry remains encouraged by the degree residents have prioritized their housing obligations so far, but each passing day means more distress for individuals and families, and greater risk for the nation’s housing sector. If policymakers want to prevent a health and economic crisis from quickly evolving into a housing crisis, they should act quickly to extend financial assistance to renters.” CR Note: This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties. It appears fewer people are paying their rent this year compared to last year – down 2.1 percentage points from a year ago – and also down 1.3 percentage points compared to last month (July 2020). This hasn’t fallen off a cliff – yet. People were still receiving the extra unemployment benefits for most of July, and were able to make their August rent payment. Without additional disaster relief, I expect more people will miss their September rent payment.

New Home Sales increased to 901,000 Annual Rate in July -The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 901 thousand. The previous three months were revised up, combined. Sales of new single-family houses in July 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 901,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 13.9 percent above the revised June rate of 791,000 and is 36.3 percent above the July 2019 estimate of 661,000.The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate. This is the highest sales rate since 2007.The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply. The months of supply decreased in July to 4.0 months from 5.5 months in June. The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.This is in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).”The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 299,000. This represents a supply of 4.0 months at the current sales rate.”Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke inventory down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973. The inventory of completed homes for sale is still somewhat low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is close to normal.The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).In July 2020 (red column), 78 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 55 thousand homes were sold in July.The all time high for July was 117 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for July was 26 thousand in 2010.This was above expectations of 786 thousand sales SAAR, and sales in the three previous months were revised up, combined.

More evidence that housing has roared back – This morning we got the final important July housing reports: new home sales and house prices. New single home sales are very volatile and heavily revised, so it is always wise to take the initial report with a grain of salt. On the other hand, it is the most leading of all the reports. With that caveat, this morning’s report of 901,000 sales annualized is the highest reading since December 2006! It is also in line with peak home sales in all periods prior to the 2000s housing bubble: The below graph focuses on the last 8 years, and compares with the much less volatile single family permits (red, right scale): The bottom line is that the huge rebound is legitimate and not based on an outlier report. House prices lag sales, turning higher or lower with a delay. that was certainly borne out by both the July Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes, shown YoY below: House price appreciation is down from earlier this year, but can be expected to accelerate shortly. That’s what record all-time low mortgage rates will do.

A few Comments on July New Home Sales – McBride_ New home sales for July were reported at 901,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for the previous three months were revised up, combined. This was well above consensus expectations, and this was the highest sales rate since 2007. Clearly low mortgages rates, and low sales in March and April (due to the pandemic) have led to a bounce back in sales in May, June and July. Favorable demographics (something I wrote about many times over the last decade) and a surging stock market have probably helped new home sales too.Note that sales are reported on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales in July NSA were up 3 thousand from June, but this translates into an increase from 791,000 SAAR in June to 901,000 SAAR in July.Earlier: New Home Sales increased to 901,000 Annual Rate in July. This graph shows new home sales for 2019 and 2020 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).New home sales were up 36.3% year-over-year (YoY) in July. Year-to-date (YTD) sales are up 8.2%.And on inventory: since new home sales are reported when the contract is signed – even if the home hasn’t been started – new home sales are not limited by inventory. Inventory for new home sales is important in that it means there will be more housing starts if inventory is low – and fewer starts if inventory is too high (not now). Important: No one should get too excited. Many years ago, I wrote several articles about how new home sales and housing starts (especially single family starts) were some of the best leading indicators for the economy. However, I’ve noted that there are times when this isn’t true. NOW is one of those times. Currently the course of the economy will be determined by the course of the virus, and New Home Sales tell us nothing about the future of the pandemic. Without the pandemic, I’d be very positive about this report.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 30.3% Year-over-year, “Fell to a three-week low”–From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 22 AugustU.S. hotel occupancy fell to a three-week low during the period of 16-22 August, according to the latest data from STR. 16-22 August 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):

Occupancy: 48.8% (-30.3%)

Average daily rate (ADR): US$100.08 (-22.7%)

Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$48.81 (-46.1%)

The prior week, the industry had reached 50% occupancy for the first time since mid-March. Lower occupancy came as U.S. room demand declined week over week for the first time since mid-April. Reflective of school openings and less vacation travel, the industry sold 492,000 fewer room nights than the previous week, which represented a decrease of 2.7%. STR projects similar challenges with no corporate demand to replace leisure demand lost to the beginning of the school year.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 61% YoY in July – From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: July 2020 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics The destination hosted an estimated 1.4M visitors in July, about 40% of last year’s levels but up from the approximately 1.1M visitors hosted in June. The convention segment continued to register no measurable volume with continued mandated restrictions on group sizes.With open properties representing an inventory of 123,684 rooms*, total occupancy reached 42.5% for the month while weekend occupancy came in at 54.4% and midweek occupancy reached 36.9%. * Reflects weighted average of daily room tallies. Here is the data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. The blue and red bars are monthly visitor traffic (left scale) for 2019 and 2020. The dashed blue and orange lines are convention attendance (right scale). Convention traffic in July was down 100% compared to July 2019. And visitor traffic was down 61% YoY.The casinos started to reopen on June 4th (it appears about 80% of rooms have now opened).

Over Half Of San Francisco Storefronts Closed As Pandemic Downturn Rages – Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson warned a “growth scare” for markets could be imminent, if that is in the “next several weeks/months.” If so, then all the instabilities of a slowing recovery, deteriorating labor market, waning consumer sentiment, and small business massacre will come out of the woodwork and shock investors. On a micro-level, we want to share with readers a genuinely shocking, and deep economic scarring story developing in San Francisco. BREAKING: Most San Francisco @Gap stores close permanently, including Market Street flagship.@Shwanika has the details here: https://t.co/DRHJtEsc3s – San Francisco Chronicle (@sfchronicle) August 17, 2020 According to CBS San Francisco, citing a new survey via the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, “more than half of all storefronts in San Francisco are no longer in business due to COVID-19.” “The survey showed only 46 percent of storefront businesses in San Francisco that were open at the beginning of the pandemic are still operating,” said Jay Cheng, spokesman of the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce. Cheng said 1,300 stores have closed in recent months, with about 1,200 still open. “There’s a lot of reasons for that. If you’re a fitness studio, you can’t open because of the pandemic. If you’re a retail space, you could open, but you might have decided that there isn’t enough foot traffic or enough customer base to make that worthwhile to reopen. So it’s become a very difficult situation,” he said.

Personal Income increased 0.4% in July, Spending increased 1.9%, Core PCE increased 0.3% – The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for July: Personal income increased $70.5 billion (0.4 percent) in July according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $39.9 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $267.6 billion (1.9 percent). Real DPI decreased 0.1 percent in July and Real PCE increased 1.6 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent.The July PCE price index increased 1.0 percent year-over-year and the July PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.3 percent year-over-year. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through July 2020 (2012 dollars). . The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.The increase in personal income and the increase in PCE were below expectations. Even if PCE stayed at this level in August and September, PCE growth would be around 35% annualized compared to Q2 (since PCE was so low in April). But PCE would still be far below the levels at the beginning of 2020.

Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments – Transfer payments decreased by $70 billion in July, but were still $1.7 trillion (on SAAR basis) above the February level. Most of the increase in transfer payments – compared to the level prior to the crisis – is now from unemployment insurance. However, there will be sharp decline in unemployment insurance in August.This table shows the amount of unemployment insurance and “Other” transfer payments since February 2020 (pre-crisis level). The increase in “Other” was mostly due to other parts of the CARES Act such as the $1,200 one time payment.A key measure of the health of the economy (Used by NBER in recession dating) is Real Personal Income less Transfer payments.This graph shows real personal income less transfer payments since 1990.This measure of economic activity increased 0.7% in July, compared to June, and was down 5.0% compared to February 2020 (previous peak). Another way to look at this data is as a percent of the previous peak.Real personal income less transfer payments was off 8.3% in April. This was a larger decline than the worst of the great recession.Currently personal income less transfer payments are still off 5.0% (see red arrow).

Consumer Confidence Down for Second Consecutive Month -The headline number of 84.8 was a decrease from the final reading of 91.7 for June. Today’s number was below theInvesting.com consensus of 93.0. “Consumer Confidence declined in August for the second consecutive month,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation Index decreased sharply, with consumers stating that both business and employment conditions had deteriorated over the past month. Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook, and their financial prospects, also declined and continues on a downward path. Consumer spending has rebounded in recent months but increasing concerns amongst consumers about the economic outlook and their financial well-being will likely cause spending to cool in the months ahead. Read more The chart below is another attempt to evaluate the historical context for this index as a coincident indicator of the economy. Toward this end, we have highlighted recessions and included GDP. The regression through the index data shows the long-term trend and highlights the extreme volatility of this indicator. Statisticians may assign little significance to a regression through this sort of data. But the slope resembles the regression trend for real GDP shown below, and it is a more revealing gauge of relative confidence than the 1985 level of 100 that the Conference Board cites as a point of reference.

August Vehicle Sales Forecast: 11% Year-over-year Decline – From Wards: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales & Inventory Forecast, August 2020 (pay content) This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for August (Red). Sales have bounced back from the April low, but are still down sharply year-over-year. The Wards forecast of 15.2 million SAAR, would be up 4.7% from July, and down 11% from August 2019. This would put sales in 2020, through August, down about 20% compared to the same period in 2019.

Survey: One-fifth of small businesses will close if conditions don’t improve – One in every five small businesses say they will not be able to stay open if economic conditions don’t improve in the next six months, and a similar number say they can only last a year. The survey from the National Federation of Independent Business, a trade group for small businesses, found that while many businesses expected to stay afloat, the pandemic was hitting significant numbers in devastating ways. “The health crisis is not impacting small businesses equally,” said Holly Wade, NFIB director of research and policy analysis. The pandemic, she said, was forcing small businesses to adapt to abrupt shifts in consumer behavior, ever-changing information on health and safety and new rules and regulations from varying levels of government. But just being able to cover their bills remains the central concern. About half of the businesses surveyed had seen a decline of over 25 percent in sales since the pandemic began, and about a fifth have seen sales drop by over 50 percent. “Many of them still need more financial assistance just to keep their doors open and staff on payroll,” said Wade. Of the businesses that had taken a Paycheck Protection Program loan – the program offering forgivable emergency loans to help small businesses keep their workers on the books – 84 percent had already used the entirety of the loan. Almost half, 47 percent, said they would need more help in the coming year, and 44 percent said they would want to apply for a second PPP loan. The program, however, expired at the end of July, and Congress has failed to agree on a relief package that would extend the program for potential return loans. Another key controversy in the deadlocked negotiations is the level of unemployment insurance. Republicans want to reduce the $600 in additional weekly benefits that ran from April through July, arguing that it makes returning to work less attractive. Some 32 percent of the survey respondents agreed, saying the benefit had made it harder to hire or re-hire workers, though 9 percent noted that their customers had more money to spend as a result. Just over half said they had moderate or serious concerns over legal action related to the pandemic. The GOP has made COVID-related liability a central demand in the negotiations.

U.S. Consumer Spending Rose More Slowly in July – U.S. consumers boosted their spending in July, but more slowly than in prior months as new coronavirus infections rose and the expiration of enhanced unemployment checks loomed.”Spending numbers have come back more than the economy as a whole, with the help of a lot of fiscal support,” said Jim O’Sullivan, an economist at TD Securities. “The question going forward is as fiscal support wanes, to what extent will it weaken.”Personal-consumption expenditures, a measure of household spending on everything from haircuts to new cars, increased a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in July from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Friday. That marked a slowdown from the previous two months when it picked up strongly after collapsing during the coronavirus-related shutdowns of parts of the economy. Economists say the wave of new coronavirus cases that swept the U.S. during July weakened the nascent economic recovery, even though nearly two million Americans joined the workforce. Recent data through August from private firms suggest consumer spending overall appears to have made up much of the ground lost during the worst of the pandemic, though the recovery is uneven across the country and might have flattened out.Earnest Research, a data analytics firm tracking U.S. consumer spending, found no real acceleration in total spending from July to August and significant disparities from state to state. Grocery shoppers cut back on spending in August, data show, a sign many Americans are hurting for cash as the federal unemployment stimulus remains on hold for most recipients. Restaurant bookings and travel spending also remain depressed. Meanwhile, many households are still earning more than they are spending during the pandemic, which economists say could fuel consumer spending in coming months. The personal saving rate was 17.8% in July, down from 19.2% in June and 24.6% in May but well above the 7.6% rate seen in January.Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic output, making it a key driver of the economy. Friday’s report showed overall consumer spending in July remained 4.6% below February’s prepandemic level.But the report also confirmed recent data showing Americans’ retail shopping through July had surpassed prepandemic levels.

With Stimulus Checks on Hold, Americans Are Spending Less at the Grocery Store – WSJ – Grocery shoppers are cutting back on spending, data show, a sign that Americans are hurting for cash as the federal unemployment stimulus remains on hold for most recipients. The emerging shift in food spending comes after the $600 in weekly additional unemployment checks expired in July. It has also prompted grocery stores to bring back something customers haven’t seen much of during the pandemic: discounts. Lump-sum stimulus checks consumers received in the spring and the extra unemployment money for people who lost their jobs in the pandemic have helped shore up consumer businesses amid widespread shutdowns and millions of workers claiming unemployment. While consumer spending rebounded between May and July following a plunge earlier in the spring, analysts say that a broader pullback on grocery spending could mean lower sales for more discretionary items such as clothes and cars. Walmart Inc. executives said consumers are nervous about their finances and job security in the absence of stimulus aid, leading to cutbacks in spending. “People perceive they’re spending more money on food, despite eating out less,” said Walmart U.S. Chief Executive John Furner on a conference call last week. “So we’ll be thoughtful about the way we plan the rest of the year and react to changes in the trends we see from our shoppers.” Other retailers, such as Stop & Shop Supermarket LLC, also expect consumer spending growth to be tempered in the months ahead by economic uncertainty and the continued disruption of sporting events, restaurant dining and other facets of pre-pandemic life.

Why Are There Still Not Enough Paper Towels? – WSJ – Blame lean manufacturing. A decadeslong effort to eke out more profit by keeping inventory low left many manufacturers unprepared when Covid-19 struck. And production is unlikely to ramp up significantly any time soon. The United States of America, heralded as the land of plenty, still doesn’t have enough paper towels.Long after the coronavirus sparked a run on them, retailers can’t keep their shelves full. Target.com had no Bounty paper towels for delivery this week, though it had some at certain stores. At Amazon.com, a seller was charging $44.95 for a pack that normally goes for $15.An average of 21% of household paper products were out of stock at U.S. stores as of Aug. 9, according to research firm IRI.The situation isn’t likely to abate soon, because producers have no plans to build new manufacturing capacity. The central piece of the machinery needed to make paper towels takes years to assemble. Americans have faced many stresses in the pandemic, of which paper-towel scarcity is hardly among the worst. Yet the forces behind the shortage nearly six months into the crisis help explain the broad lack of U.S. preparedness that has made the pandemic worse than it might have been. The scarcity is rooted in a decadeslong quest by businesses at all levels, handling many different products, to eke out more profit by operating with almost no slack. Make only what you can sell quickly. Order only enough materials to keep production lines going. Have only enough railcars for a day’s worth of output. Stock only enough items on a shelf to last till the next batch arrives.The concept, known as lean manufacturing or just-in-time inventory, was born in the hyperefficient Japanese automotive industry in the 1970s and became a religion for many American CEOs. It spread first to Detroit, then to other U.S. manufacturers and finally to other industries, from distribution to retailing.

Americans Sense Something Is Wrong- Gun Sales Up 72% – Gun sales were up 72% compared to this time last year, with first-time buyers leading the pack. Americans are likely sensing that something is horribly wrong with the rigged system we are forced to live under. According to a report by the Washington Post, the National Sports Shooting Foundation says that first-time gun buyers played a heavy role in the increase. Women and black Americans have also shown interest in arming themselves this year. “Nearly 5 million Americans purchased a firearm for the very first time in 2020. NSSF surveyed firearm retailers which reported that 40% of sales were conducted to purchasers who have never previously owned a firearm,” the organization said in its analysis, which tracked background checks associated with the sale of a firearm reported by the FBI’s National Instant Background Check System.The organization said this uptick in purchases by those who have not owned a gun before, equates to nearly 5 million first-time gun owners in the first seven months of 2020. “This is a tectonic shift in the firearm and ammunition industry marketplace and complete transformation of today’s gun-owning community,” said Lawrence G. Keane, a senior vice president at the foundation.“These first-time buyers represent a group of people who, until now, were agnostic regarding firearm ownership. That’s rapidly changing, and these Americans are taking hold of their God-given right to keep and bear arms and protect themselves and their loved ones,” Mr. Keane said.With social upheaval, political overreach and power grabs, and any number of other issues 2020 has thrown at the public, Americans appear to at least somewhat be willing to fight for their right to live freely.The foundation‘s current surveys revealed that 58% of all firearm purchases were among Black men and women, the largest increase of any demographic group. Women comprised 40% of first-time gun purchasers. Retailers also noted that they are seeing a 95% increase in firearm sales and a 139% increase in ammunition sales over the same period in 2019. – the The Washington PostThe general consensus seems to be that with four months left in 2020, we have yet to see the true scope and depravity of the elites who claim to own everyone and everything. But, lead is one of my personal favorites when it comes to storing metals.

US Cargo Thefts Erupt As Violent Crime Spreads Across America – The latest trucking news from Overdrive is particularly disturbing, outlines how cargo theft across the US surged during the virus-induced downturn in the second quarter. Overdrive, citing data from SensiGuard, a cargo theft recording firm aggregating data from transportation security councils, insurance companies and law enforcement organizations, said cargo theft surged 56% year-over-year in the quarter. “One significant note is that April, which was at the height of the supply chain disruption caused by COVID-19, experienced more than double the volume of April 2019 (+109%). While both May (+31%) and June (+30%) also beat their 2019 totals, it was by a decreasing amount in each case,” SensiGuard noted in its 2Q20 cargo theft report. The cargo theft monitoring firm recorded 227 thefts over the three months ending June, with 96 in April, 67 in May, and 64 in June. In dollar amount, the average theft was about a quarter-million dollars. It said 23% of all cargo thefts were miscellaneous products for retailers. Food and drinks made up about 20% of all thefts. California, for the first time since 3Q17, was dethroned as the state with most cargo thefts. Texas became the epicenter of thefts in 2Q20, followed by California, Illinois, Florida, and Tennessee. In a separate report, we noted truckers on a popular trucking app called “CDLLife” polled its user base. They found an overwhelming number of drivers wouldn’t “pickup/deliver to cities with defunded/disbanded police departments.”A rapid increase in cargo thefts, robberies, and violent crime across US metros is not surprising whatsoever as a virus-induced recession has unleashed depressionary unemployment levels for the bottom 90% of Americans. Tens of millions of folks are still unemployed, and now, have not received Trump stimulus checks in three weeks as they go broke and hungry, also at risk of eviction. The recession has transformed America into a dangerous country as any hope for a “V-shaped” economic rebound this year has been dashed.

Foreign Direct Investment and Supply Chains in a Risky World – The pandemic has shown that global supply chains are vulnerable to shocks. Output contracted as factories were closed in China and the impact was transmitted to firms further along the chains and the distributors of the final goods. Foreign direct investment had already slowed in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, and there were questions about its future (see here). How will multinational firms respond to the new shock? The McKinsey Global Institute seeks to answer this question in a new report, Risk, Resilience and Rebalancing In Global Value Chains. The authors point out that the pandemic is only one of a range of shocks that can disrupt production. They distinguish between catastrophes that are foreseeable (such as financial crises) and those unanticipated (acts of terrorism), as well as disruptions that take place on a smaller scale. The latter can also be divided between those that are foreseeable (climate change) and those that are unanticipated (cyberattacks).The report then measures the exposure of different business sectors to the various shocks. Those that are heavily traded are more vulnerable. These include communication equipment, computers and electronics, and semiconductors and components, all industries that are seen as promoting growth. Apparel is another sector that is vulnerable to risks, such as the pandemic and climate change. These risks will motivate firms to reconfigure their supply chains. The political fissure between China and the U.S., as well as government policies to ensure self-sufficiency in some sectors, will also induce firms to reorganize production. The report’s authors estimated that 16% to 26% of current exports could be shifted. They find that ” . . . the value chains with the largest potential to move production to new geographies are petroleum, apparel, and pharmaceuticals.” In some cases governments may need to provide financial support to induce firms to relocate to domestic economies where the governments seek domestic self-sufficiency. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in its World Investment Report 2020 also considers the future of FDI (see here for a summary). It identifies three trends that will shape the future of international production. These include technology trends that contribute to a “New Industrial Revolution;” growing nationalism that leads to more protectionism; and the need to achieve sustainability. As these forces evolve, they will push firms to increase supply chain resilience and increase national and regional productive ability.

What Travel Will Look Like After Coronavirus – When will we be traveling again in large numbers? And what will travel be like in the future? The first question depends on a medical solution to the coronavirus pandemic. The second is best answered with experience. I asked eight travel pioneers for predictions on what the future of travel will be – current and former chairmen and chief executives of travel companies and a former secretary of transportation. All have experience from past crises and recoveries. Most foresee a lasting decline in business travel, but think leisure travel will bounce back robustly. That means airlines and hotels will have to change their business plans, being unable to rely as much on rich revenue from corporate travelers. Expect higher ticket prices and room rates for vacationers to cover the costs with fewer high-dollar customers to subsidize bargain-seekers. “The airline industry is going to have to examine its business plan,” says Robert Crandall, former chief executive of American Airlines. “You are never going to see the volume of business travel that you’ve seen in the past.” He estimates one-third to one-half of business travel will go away. More meetings will take place electronically. Trips once thought necessary will be seen as superfluous. “Everybody who depends on business travel is going to have to rethink their game plan,” Mr. Crandall says. The pandemic has forced widespread, rapid adoption of videoconferencing technology. The technology is mature, easy to use and available on any device. “Will it be as necessary to send road warriors out? I have serious doubts about that,” says David Tait, a founding architect of Richard Branson’s Virgin Atlantic Airways. “The business market is seriously endangered.” Jeff Potter, a former CEO of Frontier Airlines who also ran a private-aviation subscription service shuttling people in markets such as Los Angeles-San Francisco, says those frequently traveled hops will probably take the hardest hits. Even a tiny uptick at the beginning of the summer faded once Covid-19 cases started to surge in some states. The industry is mired in what has now become a depression. On Tuesday, the International Air Transport Association updated its projection of when travel will return to pre-Covid-19 levels: 2024, a year later than the airline group’s previous forecast.

Even With a Strong Crop This Year, U.S. Farmers Are Suffering – WSJ – Following a growing season last year filled with battering rainfall and bitter trade wars, U.S. farmers hoped 2020 would provide them an opportunity to make up some ground. Instead, the situation has grown worse for many as prices remain depressed.Despite a wind storm tearing through Midwestern farms last week and drought conditions in isolated areas, a bumper crop of both corn and soybeans is still expected this year. “Overall, the trade seems to be coming to the conclusion that…there is still going to be an oversupply of corn in the U.S. and the world,” That case was bolstered Friday when Pro Farmer, following a weeklong tour of farmland across seven states, assessed the national corn yield at 177.5 bushels per acre, and the national soybean yield at 52.5. That is slightly lower than earlier U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates but higher than 2019’s waterlogged crop. For many U.S. farmers, the prospect of grain prices staying low is untenable. “It’s almost a day-to-day struggle to decide what to do next year,” said Doug Sombke, president of the South Dakota Farmers Union and a farmer of 3,000 acres of corn and soybeans in Brown County, S.D.Mr. Sombke says his local grain elevator is paying $2.87 for a bushel of corn. That is nearly a dollar lower than what he would need to collect to break even. The same is true for his soybeans, for which the elevator is willing to pay roughly $8.50 a bushel.Prices for corn and soybeans haven’t risen since the start of the year, when the signing of the U.S.-China phase-one trade agreement stipulating China would purchase $36.5 billion of agricultural goods from the U.S. gave farmers hope that export demand from China would buoy prices. Instead, most-active corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are down 16% since the start of the year, while wheat has fallen nearly 6% and soybeans have shed nearly 5%.Chinese imports of U.S. corn, soybeans and wheat are 144% higher than they were at this point last year, according to data from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. But the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. in March hobbled domestic demand for grains as restaurants and other institutions nationwide shut down. If the situation doesn’t quickly improve, Mr. Sombke said he may be forced out of farming. “We’ve got some choices to make,” he said. “The last three years, we’ve lost equity on our farm. Do we want to keep doing that?” Bankruptcies are high in farm country. Roughly 580 farmers filed for chapter 12 bankruptcy protection through the year ended June 30, according to federal data. More recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City shows farm loan repayments are expected to fall precipitously in the next three months. Most bankruptcies being reported are by small family farms, while larger agricultural operations are taking the opportunity to purchase land from distressed farmers, Mr. Philpot said.

Headline Durable Goods Orders Up 11.2% in July, Beats Forecast – The Advance Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders released today gives us a first look at the latest durable goods numbers. Here is the Bureau’s summary on new orders: New orders for manufactured durable goods in June increased $14.0 billion or 7.3 percent to $206.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two consecutive months, followed a 15.1 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 3.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 9.2 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $9.2 billion or 20.0 percent to $55.3 billion.Download full PDFThe latest new orders number at 11.2% month-over-month (MoM) was much better than the Investing.com 4.3% estimate. The series is down 5.0% year-over-year (YoY).If we exclude transportation, “core” durable goods was up 2.4% MoM, which was better than the Investing.com consensus of 2.0%. The core measure is down 1.0% YoY.If we exclude both transportation and defense for an even more fundamental “core”, the latest number is down 0.2% MoM and down 2.7% YoY.Core Capital Goods New Orders (nondefense capital goods used in the production of goods or services, excluding aircraft) is an important gauge of business spending, often referred to as Core Capex. It is up 1.9% MoM and down 0.2% YoY. For a look at the big picture and an understanding of the relative size of the major components, here is an area chart of Durable Goods New Orders minus Transportation and Defense with those two components stacked on top. We’ve also included a dotted line to show the relative size of Core Capex.

Durable-Goods Orders Rose 11.2% in July for Third Monthly Gain – WSJ – Orders for long-lasting factory goods rose for a third straight month in July as manufacturers boosted output and the economy continued its climb back from disruptions related to the coronavirus pandemic. New orders for durable goods – products designed to last at least three years – increased 11.2% in July from the previous month, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Orders for military aircraft and motor vehicles led the gains, pushing new orders for transportation equipment up 35.6% from a month earlier. Excluding the often volatile transportation category, orders rose a more moderate 2.4%. A closely watched gauge of business investment – new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft – increased 1.9% from the prior month and was barely shy of February levels. “The recovery in business equipment investment looks pretty V-shaped to us,” said Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. U.S. factories were hit by health concerns, supply chain disruptions and shutdowns early in the coronavirus crisis. But efforts to reopen the economy have helped manufacturers regain much of the ground lost in March and April. That has been reflected in a variety of measures. As of July, manufacturing employment was down less than 6% from its 2020 peak in February. Employment in service-providing industries, in comparison, was down almost 9%. And momentum appears to be continuing. Data firm IHS Markit’s survey of purchasing managers at U.S. factories showed August activity expanding at the fastest pace since the start of 2019. Output growth has been especially strong in the auto sector as factories ramp up output and sales begin to recover from the worst stretch of the pandemic. New orders for motor vehicles and parts increased 21.9% last month, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. While investment has made up significant ground, some economists are cautious about the outlook. “It is our hunch that … the trend of growth will be slower than it would have been otherwise,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez. “To be honest, though, it is still anyone’s guess, and is largely going to depend on the path of the virus, the ability to distribute a safe and effective vaccine, and fiscal policy developments.”

American Airlines announces 19,000 to be laid off starting October 1 – American Airlines executives announced Tuesday that without additional government funding through the Payroll Support Program (PSR), included in the CARES Act passed earlier this year, it will proceed with furloughing 19,000 workers on October 1. Thousands may still be laid off regardless of whether Congress hands over more public money to the airline. As part of the bipartisan CARES Act passed at the end of March this year, the major US airlines were bailed out to the tune of $25 billion, with American Airlines receiving a hefty $5.8 billion gratis from the US taxpayer. As part of the terms of the bailout, the airlines were required to use the money to retain workforces through September 30. With the additional layoffs, American will have 40,000 fewer workers than it did before the pandemic. More than 12,500 workers have already been forced to leave through “voluntary” retirements, buyouts and other schemes. In addition to American, Delta Air Lines announced on Monday that it will furlough over 1,940 pilots unless the Air Line Pilots Association agrees to a minimum 15 percent pay cut. The mass layoffs in the US airline industry are part of a global restructuring of the airline industry that is destroying the jobs of thousands of airline workers in the UK, Germany, Australia and other countries. It occurs at a time when more than 30 million workers are officially unemployed, and jobless workers have been without their $600-a-week federal unemployment benefit and many face evictions for nonpayment of rent. All of the major airlines spent billions of dollars in the decade leading up to the pandemic on share buybacks and dividend distributions to stockholders. In a Bloomberg report earlier this year, it was revealed that American, United, Southwest, Delta and Alaska had spent 96% of their free cash flow, (money remaining after capital expenditures) between 2010-2019, buying back their own shares.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,006,000 -The DOL reported: – In the week ending August 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,006,000, a decrease of 98,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 2,000 from 1,106,000 to 1,104,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,068,000, a decrease of 107,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 500 from 1,175,750 to 1,175,250.The previous week was revised down. This does not include the 607,806 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 524,986 the previous week.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

UI claims remain historically high and the president’s executive memorandum is doing more harm than good: Congress must reinstate the extra $600 – EPI – Last week 1.4 million workers applied for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. Breaking that down: 822,000 applied for regular state unemployment insurance (not seasonally adjusted), and 608,000 applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). Some headlines this morning are saying there were 1.0 million UI claims last week, but that’s not the right number to use. For one thing, it ignores PUA, the federal program that is serving millions of workers who are not eligible for regular UI, like the self-employed. It also uses seasonally adjusted data, which is distorted right now because of the way Department of Labor (DOL) does seasonal adjustments. One bit of good news is that with today’s release, DOL announced that starting next week, they will be changing the way they do seasonal adjustments. The change should address the issues that have plagued seasonally adjustments during this pandemic.Republicans in the Senate allowed the across-the-board $600 increase in weekly UI benefits to expire. Last week was the fourth week of unemployment in this pandemic for which recipients did not get the extra $600. That means people on UI are now are forced to get by on the meager benefits that are in place without the extra payment, benefits which are typically around 40% of their pre-virus earnings. It goes without saying that most folks can’t exist on 40% of prior earnings without experiencing a sharp drop in living standards and enormous pain.Earlier this month, President Trump issued a joke of an executive memorandum. It was supposed to give recipients an additional $300 or $400 in benefits per week. But in reality, even this drastically reduced benefit will be extremely delayed, is only available for a few weeks, and is not available at all for many. The executive memorandum is a false promise that actually does more harm than good because it diverts attention from the desperate need for the real relief that can only come through legislation. This is cruel, and terrible economics. The extra $600 was supporting a huge amount of spending by people who now have to make drastic cuts. The spending made possible by the $600 was supporting 5.1 million jobs. Cutting that $600 means cutting those jobs – it means the workers who were providing the goods and services that UI recipients were spending that $600 on lose their jobs. The map in Figure B of this blog postshows many jobs will be lost by state now that the $600 unemployment benefit has been allowed to expire.We remain 12.9 million jobs below where we were before the virus hit, and the unemployment rate is higher than it ever was during the Great Recession. Now isn’t the time to cut benefits that support jobs.

Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims McBride – Earlier: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 1,006,000. This was the 23rd consecutive week with extraordinarily high initial claims. More importantly, continued claims are still extremely high (second graph). The following graph shows regular initial unemployment claims (blue) and PUA claims (red) since early February. Initial claims, including Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) are still above 1.6 million per week. The worst week during the great recession was 665,000. So initial claims are still about 1 million per week higher than the worst week of the great recession! We are probably seeing some layoffs related to the higher level of COVID cases and also from the end of some Payroll Protection Programs (PPP). The second graph shows all person receiving unemployment insurance benefits on all programs. Note that this data is released with a lag, and is not seasonally adjusted. There are typically around 2 million people receiving benefits from the various programs (mostly regular unemployment insurance). As of the release this morning, there were still 27 million people receiving benefits as of August 8th.

More US jobs lost to coronavirus pandemic are disappearing permanently … A growing number of jobs lost due to the coronavirus pandemic are disappearing forever. A new analysis of payroll data published by Gusto found that less than half of furloughed employees have returned to work since March, and often for less money than they were earning pre-crisis. The findings show that only 37% of workers furloughed in March, and 47% of those laid off in April, returned to their jobs as of July. A quarter of the workers furloughed in March who were re-hired and went back to their jobs had their wages slashed by 10% or more. Just 14% of workers who returned to work are earning the same amount of money that they were previously making. Of the millions of workers furloughed between March, when the COVID-19 outbreak triggered an unprecedented shutdown of the nation’s economy, and June, 22% have been permanently laid-off. The Labor Department’s July jobs report released at the beginning of August showed that employers added 1.8 million jobs last month, sending the unemployment rate down to 10.2%. While it marked the third consecutive month of job growth in the millions, the economy has so far added back less than half — about 42% — of the 22 million jobs it lost during the pandemic. Permanent losses reached 2.9 million in July, the report showed.

New York City Faces Toughest Fiscal Crisis Since the 1970s – WSJ -New York City faces a $9 billion deficit over the next two years, high levels of unemployment and the prospect of laying off 22,000 government workers if new revenue or savings aren’t found in the coming weeks.The growing economic crisis, brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, has alarmed New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo so much that he recently asserted greater control over a panel overseeing the finances of the nation’s largest city. Earlier this summer, Mr. Cuomo appointed three close allies to the New York State Financial Control Board. The board played a prominent role during the city’s last fiscal crisis in the 1970s, when it wielded broad legal power over the city’s budget and made difficult spending decisions.Mr. Cuomo, a Democrat, has grown concerned about the direction of the city budget, state Budget Director Robert Mujica said in an interview.The city had to cut billions to balance its latest budget, but it still has major funding challenges.Local officials have called on Congress to approve a relief package for the city, but talks about a bill are ongoing. As a backstop, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio asked state lawmakers for authorization to borrow up to $5 billion to fund operating costs. Democrats who control the state Senate objected, and the request hasn’t been granted. “A lot of the same things that occurred in 1975 are reoccurring,” Mr. Mujica said. “And if that’s the case, and the city’s going to be in a level of fiscal distress, we want to know early.” The seven-member control board is chaired by the governor and consists of the mayor, the city and state comptrollers, and three “private members” appointed by the governor. One seat was vacant, and the remaining private members were appointed by former Govs. Eliot Spitzer and George Pataki. Mr. Cuomo’s appointments replace the private members and fill an empty seat. These members don’t have fixed terms and serve at the pleasure of the governor. The mayor’s relationship with Mr. Cuomo is contentious, as both leaders jockeyed over decisions at the start of the pandemic. But a spokesman for Mr. de Blasio, Bill Neidhardt, said the city was “not concerned” with the new appointments. The panel was created in 1975 after years of borrowing to cover operating deficits brought New York City to the brink of bankruptcy. The board had the power to approve, reject or change the city’s budget as well as labor contracts.

New York City Faces Another “Drop Dead”: How Many Other Cities Will Wind Up in Distress? – Yves Smith – Many readers will recall that the vogue for city living is a fairly recent phenomenon. Large cities fell into disfavor in the 1970 as they came to be seen as hotbeds of crime and “white flight” became widespread. The exodus further eroded strained tax bases. We’ll focus on New York City as the canary in the coal mine for what is coming for other cities if Covid-19 isn’t tamed by say mid 2021, particularly since commentators are already worrying about fiscal-crisis-level damage to the Big Apple. For instance, Wolf Richter has a piece documenting how San Francisco’s financial district has become a ghost town which we’ll discuss briefly. Heavily tourism-dependent towns are also due to take worse hits than similar-sized brethren. The Wall Street Journal has a new story tonight on how employers are facing worker revolts about bringing them back to offices, which does not bode well for the recovery of urban centers. Key sections:This summer, executives at health-care-technology firm Epic Systems announced a plan: Most of the 9,500 employees at its 1,000-acre campus in Wisconsin would be expected back in the office in September.The company, like many others, says its employees do their best work when they can collaborate in the same space. But blowback to the mandate was swift. Employees expressed fears about safety and spreading the new coronavirus. Local health officials questioned the move. So Epic joined legions of other companies making late-in-the-game changes to office-reopening plans, saying this month that staffers could work from home at least through the new year … .Expecting the virus to be under control by Labor Day, many employers had hoped to bring white-collar workers back to the office next month. But as cases rose in dozens of states throughout the summer, major school districts settled on remote or hybrid instruction, complicating the picture for working parents. Some employers have already scuttled plans to force office workers back so soon.They include some of the country’s biggest companies. In an August survey of 15 major employers that collectively employ about 2.6 million people, 57% said they had decided to postpone their back-to-work plans because of recent increases in Covid-19 cases. New York City’s population of the city rose not just due to growth of jobs but also the increased tendency of mid and upper income workers to bring up their children in the city. And the long-term plan for New York City, of it becoming a bedroom community for the wealthy and professionals, was coming to fruition (if you were a fan of sort of thing) via formerly commercial neighborhoods like Soho and Tribeca becoming playgrounds for the affluent, and Harlem and areas colonized by artists gentrifying.Another chapter in this “progression” was New York, along with other “world cities” becoming a place where the super-wealthy would buy apartments as investments. They were often kept vacant or little used. New York hadn’t gone as far as, say, Fulham Road near Sloane Square, in terms of looking like it had been hit by a neutron bomb. But some buildings like the former Plaza Hotel, converted into condos, even had articles written about how creepily empty they were.Now this has all gone splat. High end real estate prices are cracking as the city’s budget becomes a black hole, assuring coming deep and painful cuts in services. The press was already reporting that rats were becoming bolder due to restaurants no longer producing anywhere near their former level of throw-away food, in combination with the city sanitation services having already cut back on their schedules.

‘Footloose’ Comes To Life In New York- Governor Cuomo Bans Dancing – ‘Footloose’ Comes To Life In New York: Governor Cuomo Bans Dancing – Governor Cuomo has become Reverend Shaw Moore from the movie Footloose after issuing a new set of commands for New Yorkers that includes a ban on dancing. This is not a joke. Syracuse.com reported the story.There is no dancing allowed in New York’s bars and restaurants, even at a wedding reception, according to the New York State Liquor Authority.To control the spread of the coronavirus, Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s liquor authority has also specifically banned darts, pool, cornhole, karaoke and exotic dancing.Bar owners are already struggling to stay open after being shut down for months. The new rules are causing a lot of anxiety as business owners are being threatened with their licensing if they don’t comply.The intent is to reduce the number of people congregating in bars. If you go to a bar, you must sit at a table or move along, according to the liquor authority’s guidelines.“I don’t let people dance,” said Dan Palladino, who owns Heritage Hill Brewhouse in Pompey. “I think it’s kind of sad, but I don’t want to risk my license.”I’ve already been to an illegal wedding where there was a lot of dancing – and they’re becoming more popular. People having weddings in New York have to hide the location until the last minute and keep all signs of partying out of sight. It’s kind of exciting in a speakeasy sort of way but also extremely stupid. You cannot keep people from living their lives. And if you try to outlaw fun, they’re just going to break those laws and do it anyway.

Cuomo’s coronavirus rules: No dancing, no cornhole, no karaoke, no kidding – There is no dancing allowed in New York’s bars and restaurants, even at a wedding reception, according to the New York State Liquor Authority. To control the spread of the coronavirus, Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s liquor authority has also specifically banned darts, pool, cornhole, karaoke and exotic dancing. Somehow, a place that allows customers to throw axes and drink beer is reopening Friday. There was no word from the liquor authority on how that fits in to safety protocols. No kidding. Cuomo has also banned comedy shows. The intent is to reduce the number of people congregating in bars. If you go to a bar, you must sit at a table or move along, according to the liquor authority’s guidelines. “I don’t let people dance,” said Dan Palladino, who owns Heritage Hill Brewhouse in Pompey. “I think it’s kind of sad, but I don’t want to risk my license.” Even live music is in question after the liquor authority surprised bars and restaurants with new language this week on its Frequently Asked Questions page. The state now says music should be incidental and not a concert with paid ticketholders. Heritage Hill hires bands to play to customers seated outdoors on the weekends and charges a $5 cover. Palladino said it helps him pay the band and to control the crowd. Having people pay to watch a band actually limits the number of customers who turn over tables, he said. “I have to say: Who’s asking the why?” Palladino said. “Where are these regulations coming from? We know that our cases are declining, yet we continue to come out with more and more regulations, putting a tourniquet on businesses.” Palladino took away the cornhole games early on to avoid the appearance of congregating. But he disagrees with the rule when people are outside and playing with people they know.

De Blasio’s ‘Utopia’- Quarter-Mile Food-Bank Line Spotted In Queens – Three weeks into a fiscal cliff, a large food bank line emerged on Saturday (Aug. 22) in Queens, a New York City borough, stretching for nearly a quarter-mile down the street. With each passing day, the failure of Congress and the Trump administration to agree on the next round of stimulus exerts more and more pressure on consumers, who now derive a quarter of all personal income from the government. The La Jornada food pantry, located on 133-36 Roosevelt Ave, Queens, usually hands out food packages to 1,000 families per week. Now, according to the New York Post, the number, in recent weeks, has skyrocketed to 10,000. “It reminds me of the picture from the Great Depression where a man in a suit and tie is giving another man in a suit and tie an apple. That’s all he had,” La Jornada’s Pedro Rodriguez told The Post, adding that food supplies are running low. Rodriguez, a volunteer of the food pantry who is executive director, said, “We feel like we are underwater, drowning in a tsunami of people.” He said the surge in hungry families coming to the food bank is “unbelievable.” The Post interviewed Walter Barrera, who arrived at the food bank at 6:00 ET Saturday to pick up groceries for his family. Barrera, 50, has waited in line every Saturday for food as he lost his construction job during the pandemic. He said there are no jobs available; nevertheless, his teenage sons, 19 and 17, also cannot find jobs. Barrera said his family is broke, close friends and relatives are helping them pay their $2,300 per month rent in the city: “What do I tell my children when they look at me with hungry bellies, especially my 11-year-old son?”

‘Coming here is a necessity’: demand for food aid soars in US amid job losses –It’s hectic but the free packed lunches have become a crucial part of their daily nutrition. So everyday at noon the family make the two-mile journey from Homewood, a low income predominantly African American Pittsburgh neighborhood with no grocery stores, to the East End Community Ministry’s pop-up lunch stall in East Liberty.”The lunches help a lot, the food is healthy and it fills them up, the food stamps are never enough,” Once a week or so Davis also picks up groceries from the food pantry, which provides fresh produce rarely available at her local convenience stores. “I was raised to be humble, and right now I’ve no work so I need help. The alternative would be my kids going hungry.” Davis is not alone. The number of people relying on the pantry is up 150% compared to pre-pandemic times. And it’s not just here: nationwide the demand for aid at food banks and pantries has soared amid unprecedented job losses and the worst unemployment rate in modern times.A recent census bureau survey found 12% of American households did not have enough food sometimes or often during the previous week – compared to 9% before the pandemic. For families the situation is even worse, with 15% of households with children now experiencing food insecurity.Hunger always impacts children hardest. An estimated one in four children, the equivalent of 18 million minors, could need food aid this year – a 63% increase compared to 2018, according toanalysis by Feeding America, the national food bank network.This pandemic has also exposed – and exacerbated – structural inequalities including access to affordable, nutritious food. Overall, almost half of Pittsburgh lives in a food desert – a neighbourhood with high rates of poverty and no supermarket within half a mile – but black residents are disproportionately affected.

‘You Could Lose Everything In The Blink Of An Eye’: Utility Shutoffs Resume For Overdue Bills -Stacy Mason boiled water on her stove for bathing and washing the dishes after losing her gas service because of unpaid bills.During the COVID-19 pandemic, many states put moratoriums on evictions and utility shutoffs that are set to expire next week. But even before those protections phase-out, utility companies are cutting off gas and electric service for people like Mason.Mason says her bills started piling up after she was laid off in March from her job at an auto plant in Ohio because of COVID-19.Despite Ohio’s moratorium on utility shutoffs, Mason’s gas company offered to extend her service for one week. She explained that she was laid off and couldn’t make the payment, but she couldn’t work out a deal.”They knew what my situation was and they still came and they shut it off,” she says. “They didn’t knock on the door to let me know beforehand or anything. They just left a paper in my door and shut my gas services off.” Uncertain of what to do, Mason says she spent much of the first day after the shutoff crying. She reached out to theOhio Heartland Community Action Commission for help paying the bill. As her bills continue piling up, Mason hopes the nonprofit can help her pay her $800 rent on Sept. 1. If not, she will likely face eviction.

Duke Energy to resume disconnecting customers behind on payments – Duke Energy next week will resume disconnecting customers for nonpayment as advocacy groups are intensifying demands for a statewide moratorium on disconnections and debt forgiveness for low-income customers during the pandemic. As Central Florida’s largest power provider, Duke was part of a widespread move among utilities in March that suspended cutting off electricity to customers unable to pay their bills as COVID-19 strangled the region’s economy and employment. Many utilities, including those owned municipally in Orlando, Winter Park and Kissimmee, returned to disconnects earlier this summer, while Duke and Florida Power & Light Co. continued to suspend disconnects. “As financial assistance has become available for qualified customers, we believe now is the right time to begin resuming more traditional operations,” Catherine Stempien, Duke Energy’s Florida president, said in a statement. “We will, however, continue to help our customers access resources to assist them and provide additional information that can help reduce their bills.” Duke has 380,000 customers in Orange, 158,000 in Seminole, 86,000 in Lake, 82,000 in Volusia, 50,000 in Osceola and a few hundred in Brevard. Several environmental and social-justice groups and state legislators are calling on Gov. Ron DeSantis and the utility-regulating Florida Public Service Commission to reform utility practices during the pandemic. The “Connected in Crisis” coalition is urging a ban on disconnections through January, debt forgiveness for low-income customers and adoption of best-practices guidelines for utility customers’ debt management.

34.5 million households losing utility shutoff protections by Sept. 30 –Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, millions of Americans have relied on emergency orders put in place by state and local governmentsthat bar utility companies from shutting off services such as gas, electricity and water. However, many of these orders will expire by the end of September, leaving 34.5 million households without shutoff protections, according to a new report from energy efficiency startup Carbon Switch.Governors and public utility commissions in 32 states passed new utility shutoff moratoriums during the pandemic, which prohibited providers from shutting off utilities because of nonpayment. Several states, such as Ohio and Arizona, did not pass new orders but extended seasonal shutoff restrictions during the pandemic. Yet overall, many of these measures were put in place as short-term solutions, so most of themoratoriums are set to expire soon. Ten states have already had their orders expire, but the bulk are lifting in August, September and October,Carbon Switch’s report finds. Meanwhile, 14 states never issued specific moratoriums at all, instead relying on utility companies to voluntarily keep power on for customers with overdue bills. Yet 8 out of 10 of the nation’s biggest utility companies are planning to return to normal operations by Sept. 15 and will start cutting off customers’ electricity and gas if the bills are overdue, Carbon Switch reports. “There’s going to be a tidal wave of utility shutoffs,” says Michael Thomas, founder and head researcher of Carbon Switch. That’s because in some states, as many as a third of households are behind on payments. Typically, only about 7% to 9% of Americans are delinquent on their payments, he says. “It’s just crazy by any measure.”Throughout August and September, 14 state moratoriums will expire. Carbon Switch calculates that by October 1, about 76 million households will be without shutoff protections. At that point, only a dozen states and Washington, D.C. will still have moratoriums still in place. Only seven states – California, Connecticut, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, New York and Wyoming – and Washington, D.C. do not have expiration dates set on their moratorium orders, according to Carbon Switch. About 9.5 million people are currently unemployed in states that are set to have their shutoff protections expire on or before October 1, according to the report’s analysis of the latest monthly data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Another 10 million of the households in those states are currently below the federal poverty line, Carbon Switch finds.

Indecisive Pennsylvania panel retains a ban on utilities shutting off nonpaying customers –The PUC delayed a vote until Sept. 17 on whether to lift the order banning service terminations, put into place in March after the state declared a COVID-19 emergency. Twice previously, the commission deadlocked in votes to end the moratorium. Utilities said the moratorium on shutoffs and payment penalties has led to a dramatic increase in nonpaying customers, but consumer advocates said the action was vital to protecting consumers hit by the pandemic’s economic outfall. The commission gave no indication of points upon which it remains divided. Gladys Brown Dutrieuille, the PUC’s chair who had called for a vote this week, made a brief statement after Thursday’s announcement, thanking interested parties for submitting responses to the PUC.”I understand the gravity of the issue that this commission is faced with, and although I regret not being able to provide any type of motion or opportunity for a determination today, I do believe that we will eventually get to vote on this matter and it will be a well-informed and considered vote,” she said.

Unmasked Protesters Push Past State Police And Force Their Way Into Capitol — In Boise, the first day of Idaho’s special legislative session erupted into chaos before it began. Dozens of unmasked protesters, some of them armed, shoved their way past state troopers to pack the gallery overlooking the state’s House of Representatives.The clash was a manifestation of the anger and frustration from a vocal minority of far-right Idahoans that has been compounding over the last several months as the state has navigated its reopening amid the pandemic.To enforce social distancing, the gallery area above the House chamber was restricted with limited seating. But after the confrontation with state troopers, which resulted in the shattering of a glass door, Republican House Speaker Scott Bedke relented and allowed protesters to fill every seat.The response stands in stark contrast to 2014 when dozens of advocates pressuring lawmakers to pass LGBTQ protections were arrested for standing silently in a hallway, blocking access to the Idaho Senate chamber.On Monday, an Idaho State Police spokeswoman, Lynn Hightower, said she wasn’t aware of any pending charges against protesters. The following day she released a statement saying that “Idaho State Police personnel determined they could not have made arrests on the spot without elevating the potential for violence,” and that an investigation was ongoing into any criminal behavior “that may have occurred.”Right now, Idaho has one of the highest rates of COVID-19 cases per capita, especially in Ada County, which includes the capital, Boise, according to the White House. “I want to always try to avoid violence,” Bedke later told The Associated Press. “My initial reaction, of course, was to clear the fourth floor. But we had room for at least some more.”He said he was more disappointed than surprised at the violence.”I think we’re better than that. I think that Idahoans expect more out of their citizens.”

Ammon Bundy Is Arrested – And Wheeled Out Of The Idaho Statehouse — Ammon Bundy, who led an armed standoff against federal agents in Oregon in 2016, was arrested at the Idaho state capitol for trespassing and other charges following a protest Tuesday afternoon. Bundy has been part of disruptive protests since the state’s Republican-controlled legislature convened for a special session Monday to address coronavirus-related bills. At times, far-right demonstrators, some armed and unmasked, pushed past state troopers to enter a legislative chamber. Tuesday afternoon, amid more reported chaos, police cleared a hearing room at the order of the state house speaker. Bundy, along with two other protesters, refused to leave. He was placed in handcuffs and taken out of the statehouse and onto a Boise street in the same rolling chair in which he was seated, according to Lynn Hightower of the Idaho State Police. Bundy was expected to be booked into the Ada County Jail on charges of trespassing and resisting and obstructing officers, both misdemeanors, she told NPR. Social media posts and local television stations showed bizarre footage of Bundy being detained while sitting in an office chair in his cowboy hat and blazer.PR’s terms of use and privacy policy. NPR may share your name and email address with your NPR station. See Details. This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Bundy and other members of the far right, so-called Patriot Movement, have been protesting various coronavirus related health measures – such as mask mandates – across the Northwest since the pandemic began in March. Extremist group monitors have said the virus has breathed new life into their cause, that had been dying down in some parts of the country. In Idaho, several elected leaders have enthusiastically supported Bundy and his followers.

Court rules against Florida governor but schools to remain open – On Monday, a Florida judge issued a temporary injunction against an order by the state mandating that schools provide full in-person instruction by the end of August or risk losing state funding. Within hours, the state filed an appeal, placing a stay on the preliminary injunction and effectively reinstating the criminal state order. The Florida Education Association (FEA), which filed the initial lawsuit, said it will file a motion to reinstate the judge’s ruling. Whether this is granted or not, the final outcome for educators, parents and students will only be slightly altered. While the unions and the media presented the judge’s ruling as a major victory for teachers, the reality is the school districts such as Duval County that have already opened will likely stay open. Meanwhile, educators in other districts will be herded back into unsafe classrooms, albeit under plans outlined by local district officials working with the unions, not under the timetables and rules set by Governor Ron DeSantis and his state education officials. Facebook groups opposed to the Republican governor’s reopening of schools have formed across Florida, attracting thousands of members and serving as a means to organize protests. Last Thursday, roughly 80 teachers in Duval County (Jacksonville) organized a wildcat “sickout” strike on the first day of in-person learning. More than 1,200 Jacksonville school bus drivers and aides are conducting a strike vote. In addition, hundreds of teachers across the district and thousands statewide have resigned out of fear of returning to unsafe conditions. Faced with this revolt, the FEA filed the lawsuit to try to corral the opposition and contain it behind appeals to the courts and local school officials to work with the unions to open the schools. The FEA and its parent unions, the National Education Association (NEA) and American Federation of Teachers (AFT), have adamantly opposed any mobilization of the union’s 150,000 members in any form of statewide protest or strike action. Instead, numerous districts have been allowed to reopen across the state, producing at least 626 confirmed COVID-19 infections among students and staff, the largest confirmed total of any state.

Florida educators launch rank-and-file committee to oppose unsafe school openings – After months of applying pressure to the Duval County Public School Board, Superintendent Dr. Diana Greene, and the Duval Teachers United union, our gravest concerns have gone unheard. Schools are open, and the virus is spreading. Teachers, fearful for their jobs and their lives, are trapped in unsafe classrooms without testing, social distancing, proper ventilation, or sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE). The promises made by Florida Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran and repeated by the Board and Dr. Greene have gone unfulfilled.These schools are not safe. Science has not guided this reopening; greed has. We refuse to lay down our lives for profit or participate in a poorly designed, underfunded, deadly experiment. Therefore, we issue these demands as the basis for a struggle for a safe return to school in Duval County:

1. We call for the immediate closure of all public, private, and charter schools. Schools must remain closed until the rank-and-file safety committees, working in conjunction with trusted scientists and public health experts can ensure the safety of children, teachers, and school employees.
2. Every student and teacher must be provided with up-to-date computer technology and Internet access for virtual instruction immediately. This technology must include working webcams and microphones.
3. School ventilation systems must be renovated or replaced to comply with scientific recommendations for a safe environment.
4. When schools reopen face-to-face, we demand mandatory rapid on-site testing once a week for all faculty, students, and staff. Registered nurses must be stationed at every school, authorized to oversee testing and robust contact tracing..
5. Full transparency. We demand daily reporting to the community on results and COVID-positive cases. No one can return to a school building without a negative test.
6. No loss of income for educators who choose to stay home. Teachers will not lose their position at their school if they decide to remain virtual.
7. For freedom of speech and the protection of whistleblowers to include teachers, students, and staff.
8. For the unity and safety of educators, parents, students, and workers in our community.
9. Full income protection to all parents and caregivers who stay home with their children.
10. These measures to be paid for by a surcharge on Florida’s billionaires. As of 2019, Florida was home to 52 billionaires, and 33 of these were listed on the Forbes 400.

New York City’s school reopening plan: anatomy of a crime – New York City’s self-proclaimed “progressive” mayor, Democrat Bill de Blasio, has proven just as willing to carry out the homicidal policy of school reopening amidst the coronavirus pandemic as his most reactionary Republican counterparts. The claims being made by de Blasio and New York City schools’ Chancellor Richard Carranza that the Department of Education (DOE) is carrying out all necessary measures to safely open the city’s more than 1,600 schools – serving more than a million students – are a patent fraud. This is being sold to parents through a combination of half-truths and outright lies. There is widespread opposition to the reopening of schools from teachers and school administrators. At the same time, a growing number of parents and students are raising concerns over both the safety and the viability of the city’s hybrid models, which bring students into school buildings between one and three days each week. During the first two weeks of August, school principals and leadership teams from non-District 75 (a non-geographical district designated for special education schools) middle and high schools were told they had to select from one of five DOE-approved models for hybrid learning, despite having been asked previously to develop reopening plans grounded in the reality and needs of each school community. School leaders were told that waivers allowing for alternative models developed by school communities would not be granted. An enormous amount of pressure has been put on principals to quickly select a pre-approved hybrid model even before the results from family surveys, in which parents can select between in-person, so-called hybrid instruction, or 100 percent remote instruction for their children. Similarly, model decisions were being made before final decisions on teacher requests for medical waivers for in-person teaching were forwarded to principals. In other words, principals and school teams were essentially excluded from any meaningful input into the reopening process while being forced to choose a hybrid model without considering the kind of basic data on student population or staffing needed to make any rational decision. Parents were also being asked to choose a hybrid model without clear communication of the basic details of said models or adequate time to consider how they would impact work or childcare.

Cancellation Of SAT And ACT Tests Changing 2021 College Application Process – The uncertainty continues for high school students as many navigate the college admissions process amid the coronavirus pandemic. “It’s a hard process already when you are trying to navigate in person and having a completely normal year. So when there is a bunch going on in the world and no one knows what’s happening, it’s way more stressful,” said Shady Side Academy senior Eve Mango. Since the beginning of the pandemic, SAT and ACT tests have been canceled or pushed back. “We heard crazy stories this summer of people traveling and driving 13 hours to get to some test center because nothing in their area was open, only to get there and have the test center closed,” said Shady Side Academy college counselor Lauren Lieberman. Those cancellations aren’t just causing panic in parents and seniors. The cancellations are also changing the 2021 college application process. “It has made many colleges go to a test-optional system so they aren’t requiring ACT or SAT scores this year. That’s about 60 percent of the schools out there,” Lieberman said. While the change provides some relief to students who couldn’t get a test scheduled, it also gives seniors one less way to stand out on the application. The change in testing is just one impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the college admissions process. Both high schools senior Annabel Everett and Mango told KDKA that it’s difficult to decide on a college when you can only visit virtually and the application deadlines continue to change. “Some colleges are canceling early decision and adding a second early decision date in January. It’s really weird and I think colleges are testing all these new things and we are just trying to figure it out together,” Mango said. As for the testing optional changes, some universities said it’s a plan for the next one to three years while others made the move permanent.

Michigan College Will Digitally Track Students’ Movements At All Times – A Michigan college is requiring students to download a phone application that tracks their location and private health data at all times in an attempt to protect them from the coronavirus. Albion College, located in Albion, Mich., is one of the first schools in the country to tackle contact tracing. The school is working to create a “COVID-bubble” on campus, and asking students stay within the school’s 4.5-mile perimeter for the entire semester; if a student leaves campus, the app will notify the administration, and the student could be temporarily suspended. The move comes as universities grapple with how to reopen safely amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Several schools including Harvard University have shut down their campuses entirely, while the University of California system will provide the majority of classes online with a selection of hybrid options. Other schools, such as Boston University, are resuming in-person learning with masks and social distancing guidelines alongside virtual learning supplements for those who don’t feel comfortable returning. Albion’s reopening plan has sparked blowback from students and parents who are expressing concern about what they view as an invasion of privacy. A father of an Albion student said that he is upset that he must choose between keeping his daughter home from school or signing off on a university-sanctioned “invasion of privacy.” “The school wants my daughter to sign a form consenting to specimen collection and lab testing,” he told the Washington Free Beacon on condition of anonymity. “I have a ton of concern with that … . Why is the state of Michigan’s contact tracing not enough?”

Michigan College Unleashes “Mandatory” App To Track Students At All Times – Colleges that are reopening campuses this fall understand outbreaks of COVID-19 are certainly possible on school grounds and in the surrounding communities. To safeguard students against the virus, Albion College, located in Albion, Michigan, is requesting all students to download a smartphone app that tracks their location to create a “COVID-bubble.” According to The Washington Free Beacon, Albion College’s COVID-bubble will require students to stay within a 4.5-mile perimeter of the school. If students violate bubble rules, such as stepping outside the bubble, the app will automatically notify school officials who could slap the violater with a “temporary suspension.” The move to track students comes as college, health experts, and government officials have been in several months of disputes about reopening for the fall semester. Many schools are opting for remote courses to mitigate the spread of the virus, though such actions will be disastrous on enrollment and school budgets. Readers may recall a higher education bust is underway, one where the virus pandemic accelerated the trend (see: Higher Education Bust – Vermont College Goes On Auction Block With $3 Million Bid). So far, not everyone is thrilled about Albion’s reopening plan to maximize a contact tracing app. Students and parents had this to say: A father of an Albion student said that he is upset that he must choose between keeping his daughter home from school or signing off on a university-sanctioned “invasion of privacy.”“The school wants my daughter to sign a form consenting to specimen collection and lab testing,” he told the Washington Free Beacon on condition of anonymity. “I have a ton of concern with that … . Why is the state of Michigan’s contact tracing not enough?”Though students are required to remain on campus, professors and administrators are not. When asked about this potential loophole in its “COVID-bubble,” the school declined to comment. Rising senior Andrew Arszulowicz said that he is upset with both the mandatory use of the app and the manner in which students are being treated. “I feel like I am being treated like a five-year-old that cannot be trusted to follow rules,” Arszulowicz told the Free Beacon. “If the school believes masks work … why are we not allowed to leave if they work? It does not make sense to me.”

OSU: 228 interim suspensions issued to students said to have hosted or attended parties and large gatherings (WCMH) – Officials with The Ohio State University continue to crack down on large off-campus parties and gatherings. According to OSU spokesperson Ben Johnson, the university issued 228 interim suspensions to students who allegedly hosted or attended such events between last Wednesday and Saturday evening. Some of those suspended have been cleared, meaning the students involved are now permitted to return to campus. This comes with classes scheduled to begin for the fall semester on Tuesday, Aug. 25. Many students who live off-campus said they thought their neighborhoods seemed quieter this past weekend, compared to normal weekends. “This is my senior year. This is my last semester down here before I leave to go to student teaching. I want to have fun. I want to enjoy my college experience. I don’t want to move back home or not be allowed to go out or do anything.” On Friday, the university issued the following statement regarding off-campus parties and gatherings: All Ohio State students must follow the university’s health and safety requirements, on and off campus. Students who host or attend a party – or any gathering – with more than 10 people will be immediately referred to Student Conduct and will face an interim suspension. Student organizations involved in unsafe gatherings could lose their university recognition and funding. Ohio State students must wear a face mask and practice physical distancing, and students must not host or attend gatherings of more than 10 people. We cannot have a successful semester if we fail to follow these simple requirements.Anyone who sees a gathering that poses a health or safety risk should call local authorities. Authorities will respond in-person and inform the occupants of the residence that they have been reported to Student Conduct and should disband.The Office of Student Life is also monitoring off-campus neighborhoods and is reporting individuals to Student Conduct. Community members can report gatherings directly to Student Conduct at [email protected]. Johnson said figures regarding the COVID-19 testing of students, staff and faculty members may be released within a few days.

How the University of North Carolina went from a leader in college reopenings to what the student paper called a ‘clusterf—‘ with 135 coronavirus cases in just 7 days – Anna Pogarcic was in her Zoom class on Monday, trying to focus and not check her notifications. But Pogarcic, 21, is the editor in chief of The Daily Tar Heel, the student newspaper for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and her “Slack was blowing up,” she said, referring to the digital-messaging app used by many newsrooms (including Business Insider). She tried to ignore the Slack messages rolling in and quickly hopped into a different chat room to ask if editors were prepared for a meeting later. Pogarcic said that after the other editors were uncharacteristically silent, and scrolled through more messages, she realized what had happened. “I was like, ‘Oh no,'” she recalls. Because just a week after UNC opened up for the fall semester in a hybrid model – partially remote, partially in-person – the school had abandoned this plan and gone completely remote. At least 135 students have tested positive for the virus, and six clusters on campus were identified within seven days – meaning the school’s COVID-19 positivity rate rose from 2.8% to 13.6% in just one week. By the following Monday, the school’s Covid dashboardreported that at least 31.3% of students tested last week had been positive, bringing the total to 18.7%. The Daily Tar Heel had been doggedly reporting on the many warning signs that plagued the school’s reopening, including thefour coronavirus clusters that had popped up in the three daysbefore the school’s decision to go remote. Two more, a freshman dorm and a fraternity house, were identified last week, followed by others over the weekend, Indy Week reported.The eyes of professors, college students, and parents around America were on UNC after it announced its plan to reopen in May.When classes began on August 10, the university was moving f orward as if it were a relatively normal fall instead of the middle of a pandemic that is still not under control. On August 11, The Washington Post reported that a “very large share” of UNC’s 20,000 undergraduates and 10,000 graduate students were in or near the college town, and more than half the dorm beds were full. On August 17, UNC asked everyone to cancel their housing contracts, except those who “need to remain in residence.” The news set off a scramble, with students trying to get home safely, figuring out if they could break leases on apartments, and coping with the sudden change as academics continue on as unusual. The scramble includes UNC itself, which issued another statement to clarify that housing contracts should be canceled by August 25 and classes were canceled on August 24 and 25 for move-out purposes.Business Insider spoke with 12 students and workers at the school about what life has been like at the Chapel Hill campus amid what The Daily Tar Heel’s editorial board has dubbed a “clusterf—.”

The Students Behind That ‘Clusterfuck’ Headline Want You to Focus on Literally Anything Else – It’s been a busy few days for journalists at The Daily Tar Heel, the student newspaper at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. At the start of last week, Opinion Editor Paige Masten yelled across the newsroom to ask whether it was all right to use the word “clusterfuck” in a print headline describing the university’s pandemic response.”Go for it,” Anna Pogarcic, editor-in-chief, yelled back. “Print news, raise hell.” The next day, the newspaper front page read: “UNC has a clusterfuck on its hands.” The student journalists at the paper had been covering the university’srocky re-opening plan for months, and they even broke the initial storyexposing the clusters of positive Covid cases on campus. Ever since the editorial ran, The Daily Tar Heel‘s work has gone viral, drawing attention from the National Press Club and Anderson Cooper.Masten and Pogarcic caught up with GEN this week to talk about the weird fixation with their headline, the next steps in their reporting, and how The Daily Tar Heel hopes to diversify.

• Paige Masten: I started planning the editorial on Friday when we found out about the first two Covid-19 clusters on campus. I just knew it was something we’re going to have to report on and people were going to be frustrated and angry. We’re all students. So we are feeling the very same things and we’re affected by the news as well. The headline was such a good play on words because the university was calling it a “cluster” and it was such a terribly handled situation, which is what clusterfuck means. I feel like they were just kind of asking for it. And it was too perfect not to run with.
• Anna Pogarcic: Media ethics people are asking about what kind of debate happened in the newsroom for this. There wasn’t. It really was just that Paige had a great idea with that wording and the headline. I was like: I mean, yeah, definitely, this is a mess. Go for it. I’ve seen some comments that using the curse word was lazy. And I just want people who are asking us to consider their own situations. Are you sitting in your home office right now writing this email to us while we are students who have been essentially forced to come back to our campus and are asking our university questions, but not getting answers?
• Masten: For some people who are visiting our website now, the editorial caught their attention. But I don’t want them to fixate on it, because I don’t think it’s important. What the newsroom is doing is equally, if not more important. They’ve been reporting on the pandemic since March when the university first shut down. That has not changed. And our reporters have been so relentless in fighting for the answers. I don’t think they’ve really gotten the credit they deserve. If it took using the word “fuck” for people to actually pay attention to the incredible work that our reporters are doing, then great.

University Of Alabama Reports More Than 560 New COVID-19 Cases In 1st Week – The University of Alabama is reporting more than 560 new cases of COVID-19 across its three campuses and medical center less than a week after starting classes. According to data from a university dashboard, students, staff and faculty at the university’s main campus, Tuscaloosa, account for 531 of the total confirmed cases since Aug. 19. “The rise we’ve seen in recent days is unacceptable, and if unchecked, threatens our ability to complete the rest of the semester on campus,” University of Alabama President Stuart Bell said at a press conference Monday. “Now is the time for action.” The city of Tuscaloosa temporarily closed bars in an effort to curb the spread of the virus. At a press conference Monday, Mayor Walt Maddox said the city did so at the request of the university. Maddox issued an executive order suspending the on-site consumption of alcohol at bars and eliminating bar service at restaurants in Tuscaloosa for two weeks, starting at 5 p.m. Monday. In the order, he noted that the university is a significant driver of economic activity in the city and warned that “a move to virtual classes for the fall semester of 2020 would devastate our local economy and spell disaster for our service industry establishments.” Maddox echoed those comments at the briefing, saying the rise in cases on campus poses a serious threat to the city’s economy as well as its health care system. Without an intervention, he said, the DCH Regional Medical Center could be “stretched beyond its capacity within four to six weeks.”

University of Alabama ordered faculty to keep quiet about COVID-19 outbreak: report – Administration officials at the University of Alabama reportedly instructed professors to keep quiet about the outbreak of more than 500 coronavirus cases, instructing them in an email not to tell their students if someone in a class tests positive.The email, obtained by the Daily Beast, comes amid a massive rise in COVID-19 cases since classes resumed on Aug. 19 at the Tuscaloosa, Ala., school. “Do not tell the rest of the class,” the email to the politics department reads, with the word “not” underlined. The email reportedly states that students who test positive are not considered an exposure risk if masks were worn and social distancing was practiced, suggesting that students and the professor may never be informed if there was an infected person in a class. According to the outlet, other departments also warned teachers against posting on social media under the claim that it could constitute a HIPAA violation. Alabama Provost James Dalton sent an email to faculty on Tuesday again stating that professors are not responsible for reporting positive cases to their students or the school because the university has a “robust program” for alerting exposed parties. “If the established rules for masks and physical distancing are followed in the classroom, then the risk of transmission from the positive student is minimal, and it is not necessary to inform the rest of the class they may have been in the same room as a positive classmate,” the email obtained by the outlet states. “For privacy reasons, the instructor should not announce to the class that a student in the class tested positive, even anonymously.” When asked for comment, Associate VP for Communications Monica Watts directed the Daily Beast to the official guidance on the school’s website. The website states that “for privacy reasons, the instructor should not announce to the class that a student in the class has tested positive, even anonymously.” Professors can request confirmation through a 30-second self-reported questionnaire called the US Healthcheck system to “verify that students are in compliance with all health and safety protocols,” Watts added. If a student tests positive on campus, the COVID Support Program is automatically informed and the university reaches out. However, the Daily Beast noted that students who are tested by an off-campus provider are expected to notify the school’s COVID-19 hotline or go through an online reporting portal. Michael Innis-Jimenez, an American studies professor, told the outlet that a lot of his colleagues are “terrified.” The instructor said he shifted to teaching his classes remotely after learning the school’s plan for reopening. “Every statement at least for the last month has been about this plan, they’ve got this plan,” he said, before adding, “It makes it feel like a lot of this is for show, especially when they don’t want you to confirm it’s not working.”

University of Alabama reports over 1,000 students tested positive for coronavirus – Over 1,000 students have tested positive for COVID-19 at the University of Alabama (UA) since classes began at the school earlier this month. According to a university dashboard, 1,043 students tested positive for the virus between Aug. 19 and Aug. 27. Since the beginning of the year, a total of 1,201 students have tested positive. The school represents one of the largest coronavirus clusters reported at any college or university in the country since the start of the fall semester. The dashboard shows that nine faculty members have tested positive for the virus since Aug. 19, the day classes officially began. The University of Alabama System confirmed 10 cases among students at both its Huntsville location and its Birmingham location since Aug. 19. The university system said in a Friday statement that no students who have tested positive for the virus have been hospitalized. “Our exposure notification efforts have revealed no evidence of virus transmission due to in-person class instruction. We remain satisfied that the precautions implemented prior to the resumption of classes – including masking, distancing, and a blend of in-person and remote instruction – are appropriate and effective,” Dr. Ricky Friend, Dean of the College of Community Health Sciences at UA, said in the Friday statement. University officials also called on students to practice social distancing, frequently wash their hands, wear a mask or face coverings and take other health precautions. ICE reports over 230 active COVID-19 infections at Arizona facility More than 500 visitors to Nevada have tested positive for COVID-19… University of Alabama President Stuart Bell on Monday called the spike in COVID-19 cases on campus “unacceptable.” “Make no mistake, this trend is a real threat to our ability to complete the semester on campus. The solution is proven: testing, mask wearing, social distancing, personal hygiene and compliance with crowd size limits are all that are asked as we work together to complete the semester together,” Bell said. Colleges and universities across the U.S. have grappled with returning to classes, with schools adopting a slate of in-person, virtual and hybrid models.

Northwestern University freshmen, sophomores will not return to campus – Underclassmen at Northwestern University will not return to campus this semester and fraternity and sorority houses remain shuttered, the university announced Friday. University officials said the change in plans was due to community feedback, coronavirus cases rising throughout suburban Chicago and other schools’ experiences reopening their campuses. “This is not a letter we wanted to write, but we are compelled to make several adjustments to our plans for undergraduate students this fall after consulting with Northwestern Medicine experts as well as state and local public health officials,” the university told students in the announcement. Other universities across the country have experienced outbreaks upon reopening, with some reporting clusters in Greek housing complexes. . The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, for example, suspended in-person undergraduate courses earlier this month after reporting several coronavirus clusters since students were welcomed back to campus. “If all goes as planned,” Northwestern officials said, the students will be able to come to campus for the Winter Quarter in January. The university also announced they will reduce undergraduate tuition by 10% for Fall Quarter. Since the start of the pandemic, Illinois has reported 231,363 cases of the coronavirus and 8,008 deaths.

‘Frats Are Being Frats’: Greek Life Is Stoking the Virus on Some Campuses – The big bouquets of roses. The towering signs spelling out the letters of each house in Greek. And the hundreds of rushees clutching their acceptance envelopes as they run through campus together. Bid day at the University of Alabama, when sororities decide which pledges will join their sisterhoods, is cause for celebration. But this past weekend, women at the school, which has one of the biggest Greek systems in the country with 11,000 members, were warned not to party following their invitations to join any of two dozen sororities because of the potential spread of the coronavirus.That did not stop all of them. The bars and sidewalks along the Strip were crowded on Sunday as sorority members and other students reveled in their return-to-school rituals, sparking criticism from public officials, the fury of university officials and worries from other Tuscaloosans. The concerns over Greek life come amid reports of virus outbreaks at fraternities and sororities across the country. Universities are struggling with how to prevent tightly packed sorority and fraternity houses from turning into coronavirus clusters.At the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, officials abruptly called off in-person classes on Monday after identifying four clusters in student housing facilities, including one at the Sigma Nu fraternity. The New York Times has identified at least 251 cases of the virus tied to fraternities and sororities. At the University of California, Berkeley, 47 cases were identified in a single week in early July, most of which were connected to the Greek system. In Mississippi, a significant outbreak in Oxford, home to the state’s flagship university, was partially blamed on fraternity parties. At the University of Washington’s Seattle campus, at least 165 of the 290 cases identified by the school have been associated with its Greek Row.As students return to campus, there have been virus outbreaks at residence halls and other university housing as well. More than 13,000 students, faculty and staff members at colleges have been infected with the coronavirus, according to a Times database of cases confirmed by schools and government agencies. Though they dominate social life on many campuses, their houses are often not owned or governed by the universities, and have frequently been the site of excessive drinking, sexual assault and hazing. That same lack of oversight, some experts say, extends to controlling the virus. Even on campuses that are offering online instruction only, people are still living in some sorority and fraternity houses. Among the 25 fraternity houses hosting students over the summer at the University of Washington, 15 of them suffered a coronavirus outbreak in the last week of July. At least 165 students of the 1,000 living there tested positive for the virus. Students quarantined within their fraternity houses, sometimes designating an entire floor for infected students. Across two of the facilities, 45 out of 65 students tested positive.And at the University of Southern California, where classes – all held remotely – started on Monday, administrators have traced two outbreaks to fraternity houses over the past month. In mid-July around 45 people tested positive for the virus, most of them members of fraternities or sororities. And last week 15 people were found to be infected, some of them fraternity members and others who lived nearby.

UT fraternities, sorority placed on interim suspension for COVID-19 violations – Five fraternities and one sorority have been placed on interim suspension and will be investigated by the University of Tennessee at Knoxville for breaking COVID-19 guidelines. The following organizations have been placed on interim suspension:

• Alpha Tau Omega
• Sigma Alpha Epsilon
• Delta Tau Delta
• Pi Kappa Alpha
• Kappa Alpha
• Chi Omega

On Wednesday, Chancellor Donde Plowman and Vice Chancellor for Student Life Frank Cuevas said the university had received “reports that they held or organized gatherings in a manner that endangered the health, safety or welfare of others.””These organizations did not comply with the Student Code of Conduct and the university’s COVID-19 health and safety directives for events on and off campus,” the message said. “These organizations are not permitted to host social events, either virtually or in person, while under investigation. They are not permitted to host any group meetings in person, even if those events are not social in nature.”As vice chancellor, Cuevas can impose interim actions before the student conduct process is complete, UT spokesperson Tyra Haag said. Those actions, in this case an interim suspension with gathering restrictions, will remain in place until the conduct process is complete and sanctions are in place, Haag said. The announcement comes days after the university announced it had taken disciplinary action against four students – three for throwing a party that did not comply with COVID-19 guidelines and one for leaving isolation when they had tested positive for COVID-19.

Hundreds of university students have been suspended for violating COVID safety policies as cases rise across college campuses – Across the country, college students are being suspended for violating university COVID safety protocols. Earlier this week, Ohio State University suspended 228 students prior to classes starting, CNN reported. Students are limited to socially distanced gatherings of 10 or fewer people and risk interim suspension if they violate guidelines.”Let me remind you: organizations and individuals will be held accountable for their unsafe behaviors,” Vice President for Student Life at OSU Melissa Shivers said in a letter to students on Friday. “And remember that this is all about more than the individual. We all have one shot at this.”At Syracuse University in New York, 23 students were suspended for similar violations to the college’s COVID safety protocols. The suspensions took place after a group of students gathered on the campus lawn Wednesday evening.”The world is watching, and they expect you to fail. Prove them wrong. Be better. Be adults. Think of someone other than yourself. And also, do not test the resolve of this university to take swift action to prioritize the health and well-being of our campus and Central New York community.,” Vice Chancellor J. Michael Haynie said in a statement emailed to the Syracuse University community on Thursday. Haynie criticized students who “selfishly jeopardized” the ability for the university to continue with the fall semester on campus. Schools across the country are grappling with the risks of bringing students back to campus. At the University of Alabama, more than 560 cases of coronavirus have been reported with 531 of them being at the flagship Tuscaloosa campus, the Washington Post reported. “The rise in COVID cases that we have seen in recent days is unacceptable and if unchecked threatens our ability to complete the semester on campus”

As school year starts, credit unions on campus brace for a slowdown – Credit unions chartered to serve colleges and universities could see traditional fall-semester membership gains decimated because of the coronavirus. The start of the new academic year is often the biggest time of the year for recruiting new members, thanks in part to the influx of new students on campus. But many schools have had to alter their plans for the new semester because of the ongoing pandemic. The University of North Carolina in Chapel Hill initially had students on campus for in-person instruction but reversed course after one week. Similarly, Michigan State University switched gears at the last minute and moved to online-only courses shortly before students were set to return from summer break. Several universities that had made plans for in-person coursework this fall have seen spikes in COVID-19 diagnoses with students back on campus. The University of Alabama reported roughly 560 cases during its first week of classes, while the University of Kansas saw 222 positive tests in just two days. The National Credit Union Administration lists about 50 credit unions chartered to serve colleges and universities, and institutions serving those groups are doing their best to roll with the punches. “Your strategic plan kind of went out the window on March 15,” quipped Daniel Berry, CEO of Duke University Federal Credit Union. “From a student perspective, I think a lot of schools had the best of intentions,” he added. “They thought they could control it [with online classes in the spring, masks and social distancing] and kind of underestimated that teenagers want to be together. That’s part of the college experience.” Duke CU serves some of the student population but is more targeted at faculty and staff. It normally sees about 100 new members per month, but that figure dropped by more than half when quarantine started in the spring. Things have improved to the point that new memberships are now up to 60 or 70 per month. “Now you can’t put a tent up [in areas where students congregate], you can’t say, ‘Here’s a t-shirt if you join us.’ Everything’s online,” said Berry, noting that other tactics such as geofencing also don’t work without the influx of people on campus. “You’ve got to adapt, but still your results are going to be lower than normal.”

Student borrower protection bill on verge of passage in California – The California Senate passed a bill Friday that would impose tough new standards on banks and certain other companies that service education loans. Supporters expect the legislation, which is known as the Student Borrower Bill of Rights, to be approved by the state Assembly and signed into law by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. If that happens, California will become the first U.S. state where borrowers have the right to sue for damages when student loan servicers fail to process payments in a timely manner or fail to meet other obligations. “The Student Borrower Bill of Rights will protect Californians from predatory loan servicing practices and help ensure they stand a fair shot at putting these debts behind them,” Suzanne Martindale, senior policy counsel at Consumer Reports, which pushed for the legislation’s passage, said in a press release. The legislation, introduced by Democratic Assemblymember Mark Stone, would apply to servicers in both the federal student loan market and the smaller private student loan market. It easily passed the California Assembly last year but did not get a vote in the Senate until Friday, when it passed by a 23-8 margin. The current version of the bill includes a few concessions to student loan servicers, Martindale said in an interview. For example, the legislation now gives servicers 45 days to cure problems before borrowers’ lawsuits can proceed. In addition, the Senate-passed bill provides an exemption for federally chartered credit unions, though not for banks, according to Martindale. She said that language was also added to clarify that while the bill is meant to operate consistently with federal law, it can be preempted to the extent that there is inconsistency. Beth Mills, a spokeswoman for the California Bankers Association, which opposes the bill, said Friday that the legislation still fails to include exemptions that would be necessary to properly address federal preemption conflicts. By requiring state officials to investigate, examine and mandate the production of information held by banks, the legislation runs afoul of the exclusive visitorial authority of federal regulators, Mills argued in an email. Consumer advocates, meanwhile, argue that legislation is necessary to provide a check on an industry where abuses are rampant. The California legislation is part of an effort by Democrats and advocacy groups to write stronger state-level rules for the student loan industry, in light of what they see as lax treatment by the Trump administration. The bill would require servicers to post, process and credit student loan payments within certain time frames. It would require servicers to apply overpayments in a way that is consistent with borrowers’ best interests. And it would mandate that servicers apply partial payments in a way that minimizes late fees and negative credit reporting. The bill would also create a borrower advocate within California’s government to receive consumer complaints.

Pennsylvania Governor Calls For State To Legalize Marijuana, Citing Pandemic —Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf is asking state legislators to legalize recreational marijuana, saying the government could use the tax revenue to support small businesses and to fund restorative justice programs. The governor’s call to legalize the sale and use of marijuana is part of a broader plan that Wolf says will help Pennsylvania’s economy, which is suffering from months of shutdowns and slowdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Wolf’s plan calls for some of the revenue from marijuana sales to be used to fund grants for small businesses. And 50% of that funding, he says, would be reserved for historically disadvantaged businesses. Other revenue would go toward “restorative justice programs that give priority to repairing the harm done to crime victims and communities as a result of marijuana criminalization.” Marijuana has been legal for medicinal use in Pennsylvania since 2016, thanks to legislation Wolf signed. The state formally activated its medical marijuana program in 2018. It’s uncertain what kind of reception the Democratic governor’s plan could meet in the Republican-led General Assembly. Wolf acknowledged that in recent months, Democrats’ initiatives “have been stopped at every turn by the Republican majority focused on ignoring the public health crisis.”

Postal Service Slowdowns Cause Dangerous Delays In Medication Delivery On Aug. 3, a prescription for Zach Matheny’s blood thinning medication was filled at his pharmacy and sent out for delivery via the U.S. Postal Service. It never arrived at his home in Columbus, Ohio.”After a week I started to get worried, so I went ahead and called the pharmacy,” Matheny says. “And after some back-and-forth, they essentially gave me the answer along the lines of, ‘Well, it might be lost because of everything going on.'” Recent delivery delays have raised concerns about the U.S. Postal Service handling ballots for November’s election. They’ve also created immediate worries for those who rely heavily on the service to obtain lifesaving medications.There have always been minor issues with medication delivery by mail, but that problem has been exacerbated by recent changes imposed by the Trump administration, such as limits on overtime and a requirement that trucks leave on schedule even if mail isn’t loaded yet.”We have heard some extreme anecdotes over the last couple weeks where patients are waiting one, two, three weeks for their medications,” Matheny called the Postal Service about his prescription and was told that employees couldn’t locate his medication. He called his insurer, but it wouldn’t approve another refill because the medication is too expensive. “I could die,” Matheny says. “The issue with blood clots is, if you do not catch it in time, they will move up through your body, get up to your brain and explode. … I’m really worried.”Matheny is not alone. According to data from before the COVID-19 pandemic, collected by the Kaiser Family Foundation, Ohio residents rely on mail-order prescriptions more per capita than any other state in the country.Nationally, an Ipsos poll found that 1 in 5 Americans got medication through the mail in the past week, and 1 in 4 of them experienced a delay or nondelivery. The USPS handles approximately 1.2 billion prescription shipments every year. That’s nearly 4 million a day, six days a week, according to the National Association of Letter Carriers.

Mail delays may affect medication supply for nearly 1 in 4 Americans over 50 – The timeliness of mail delivery may affect access to medication for many middle-aged and older adults, according to a new analysis of data from a national poll of people aged 50 to 80.Nearly one in four people in this age group said they receive at least one medication by mail, but that percentage rises to 29% when the poll results are limited to people who take at least one prescription medication. Nearly 17% of people in this group say they receive all their medications via mail.In addition, 35% of those who receive medications by mail said that their insurance requires them to do so.The data on the use of mail delivery for medications come from a poll taken in 2017 as part of the ongoing National Poll on Healthy Aging, but not previously published in poll reports. The poll did not ask if the mail delivery was through the United States Postal Service or a private package delivery service.While deliveries of all kinds have been delayed during the months of the COVID-19 pandemic, USPS delays have been in the spotlight in recent weeks. Congressional hearings on this topic are now under way.The National Poll on Healthy Aging is conducted by the University of Michigan Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation, and sponsored by AARP and Michigan Medicine, U-M’s academic medical center.In addition to those who said their insurance required mail delivery, 53% said the delivery option saved money, and 42% cited convenience. Nearly 30% said they chose to use the mail for medications that they took on a long-term basis and didn’t need to discuss with a pharmacy team member. And nearly 29% said their doctor’s office automatically sent their prescriptions to a company that sends medications by mail.

India to hold national college tests despite surging virus infections – (Reuters) – More than 2 million Indian students will sit for admission tests to medical and engineering schools next week, the government said on Wednesday, despite growing concern that the move could fuel a jump in coronavirus infections. India reported more than 60,000 infections, maintaining the world’s highest single-day caseload since August 7, a Reuters tally showed. With 3.2 million cases, it ranks after the United States and Brazil, though its 59,449 deaths are far fewer. Now the government is pushing for a return to normalcy to lessen the economic pain, after having imposed a strict early lockdown of India’s 1.3 billion people in March. “We are very mindful of the safety of our students, we will take full precautions,” Education Minister Ramesh Pokhriyal told state radio, adding that the tests had to be held to ensure students did not lose a year. Already twice postponed this year, the tests will be spread over several days and held at more centres than usual, to ensure there is no crowding. But many students have to travel long distances and there was a risk of infections, said the All-India Students’ Union, a leftist group that represents university students. It urged students to wear black armbands and join online protests to put pressure on the government to delay the tests until infections fall. Swedish climate activist Greta Thurnberg also waded into the dispute, urging a postponement. “It’s deeply unfair that students of India are asked to sit national exams during the COVID-19 pandemic and while millions have also been impacted by the extreme floods,” Thurnberg said on Twitter on Tuesday. Parts of eastern India are also struggling with floods caused by annual monsoon rains

In India, coronavirus has created a ‘crisis within a crisis’ by bringing migration abroad to a halt – International migration brings India billions of dollars and gives millions of its citizens jobs. Not this year. In 2019, India had the largest diaspora in the world, which was sending back billions of dollars in remittances and contributing significantly to the economy. This year has changed everything. The coronavirus pandemic has upended life, leading to job losses, travel restrictions and visa limbos. For travellers and students, the standstill has been infuriating. But for millions of international migrants, including from India, the extraordinary disruption has meant threatened or lost livelihoods. The International Labour Organisation calls this a “crisis within a crisis“: “Tens of millions of migrant workers, forced to return home because of the Covid-19 pandemic after losing their jobs, face unemployment and poverty in their home countries … Migrant workers have found themselves stranded in host countries without access to social protection…Even those with jobs may be taking reduced wages and living in cramped worksite residences where social distancing is impossible.” It is hard to predict a return to normal, but academics say it may not happen until 2021 – and possibly, not even after.Between 1990 and 2019, migration from India increased threefold, making it the largest country of origin for migrants. Last year, it had a 17.5 million-strong diaspora around the world. Of these, some estimates say, eight to nine million lived in six countries in one region alone: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait in the Persian Gulf. Half of the migrants to the Persian Gulf were unskilled, 30% semi-skilled, and only the remaining 20% skilled. Their conditions changed precipitously in February and March of this year, as the coronavirus pandemic barrelled through the world. Many were left jobless, and some homeless. Desperate and despairing, they beseeched the Indian government to find them a way home, but so far, several months later, only 878,000 Indians have been repatriated through the Vande Bharat mission.

World Bank’s ‘Mobilizing Finance for Development’ Not Financing Development — The World Bank leadership must urgently abandon its ‘Maximizing Finance for Development’ (MFD) hoax. Instead, it should resume its traditional multilateral development bank role of mobilizing funds at minimal cost to finance developing countries.Funding is urgently needed for Covid-19 containment, relief and recovery efforts, to prevent recessions becoming protracted depressions and to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The World Bank’s MFD – a reheated version of its 2015 Billions to Trillions: Transforming Development Finance (B2T) campaign – promised to leverage billions of ODA into trillions of development finance. However, MFD has failed to achieve its purported objective to fill the estimated US$4~5 trillion annual SDGs funding gap. Blended finance and public private partnerships (PPPs) are its two main instruments for such leveraging without offering evidence that either can and will deliver development projects much better than traditional public procurement. Both benefit private finance at the expense of the public interest, particularly by increasing the risks of government contingent liabilities. Increasing such exposure is presented as an unavoidable cost of raising additional finance. The Bank has long claimed that private finance offers the best solution to pressing development and welfare concerns. Its MFD strategy urges using public money to leverage private finance, and capital markets to transform bankable projects into liquid securities. It presumes that most developing countries cannot achieve the SDGs’ Agenda 2030 with their own limited fiscal resources, especially as overseas development assistance (ODA) becomes increasingly scarce. The strategy envisages multilateral development banks (MDBs) and development finance institutions increasing financial leverage through securitization to attract private investment, particularly by institutions. It would deploy scarce public resources to ‘de-risk’ such financing arrangements by transforming ‘bankable’ development projects into tradable assets. Thus, governments bear more of the risks and costs of greater financial fragility. The MFD approach had mobilized only US$0.37 of additional private capital for every US$1 of public money invested in low-income countries (LICs), according to an April 2019 study. Leverage ratios were generally low across sectors, and lowest for LIC and middle-income country (MIC) infrastructure.

Historic Contraction in Rich Economies Presages Long Climb Back – WSJ – The world’s rich economies experienced the deepest contraction in at least six decades in the spring, according to fresh data published Wednesday, while continuing outbreaks of the novel coronavirus mean their path back to pre-pandemic levels of output likely will be fraught. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Wednesday said the combined economic output of its 37 members – most of which are rich – was 9.8% lower in the second quarter than it was in the first, the largest decline since records began in 1960. The previous largest fall in output during a single quarter was the 2.3% drop recorded in the first quarter of 2009, at the height of the global financial crisis. Surveys and other data indicate that economic activity began to recover as early as May, when a number of countries lifted some of the restrictions designed to contain the virus. Economists expect to see a strong rebound in the quarter that runs through September, with the snap back in activity largest in those economies that saw the deepest declines in the second quarter, reasoning that the depth of those contractions reflected the severity and duration of lockdowns that have since been largely brought to an end. But there are already signs that resurgent infection rates and the freshly imposed restrictions designed to contain them are weighing on growth, and will continue to do so until a vaccine becomes widely available. “The global economy is turning around, and the worst is probably behind us,” said Jerome Jean Haegeli, chief economist at Swiss Re. “But the situation is serious. Lost output is lost.”The U.K. saw the largest decline in gross domestic product during the period, a drop of 20.4% that was more than double the 9.5% decline recorded by the U.S. Finland saw the smallest drop, a 3.2% decline in output that was slightly smaller than South Korea’s 3.3%. By contrast, China – which isn’t an OECD member – saw its economy expand by 11.5%, reflecting the fact that it was the first country to suffer an outbreak of the virus, and the first to lock its economy down and then ease those restrictions.

Covid-19: Carmageddon Beckons Unless Work from Home Continues – With social distancing likely to be the norm over the next several years, the notion of sardine-packing residents into trains, buses and trams is obviously no longer viable if Australia is to contain outbreaks of COVID-19. This has raised concerns that capital city traffic congestion could worsenafter restrictions ease, with commuters tipped to shun public transport and opt for the security of their own cars: Melbourne could emerge from the pandemic with worse congestion, with surging truck numbers tipped to fuel future traffic snarls as people shun public transport. New data from obtained by the Herald Sun shows thousands of previously unseen trucks and cars flooded Melbourne streets as restrictions were eased. The figures, collected by Here Technologies, tracked movements between April and June reveal an alarming uptick in traffic despite many people working from home and have sparked warnings Melbourne is heading for a congestion crunch. The number of trucks thundering down Punt Rd rose by nearly a quarter over this time while the Tullamarine recorded 289,798 extra truck journeys over the space of a month. The research also showed 30 per cent of people are receiving online orders once per week, up from 17 per cent before restrictions were introduced. Here Technologies director of business development, Daniel Antonello said these were new challenges likely to create bigger gridlock problem as people return to work. “We believed its going to be very congested and its obvious it’ll happen pretty quickly,” he said. “As people were going to work and deliveries remained up we saw a glimpse of that. “There was much more traffic in Melbourne in July than in April but much of the population was still working from home.” Mr Antontello said authorities would have to address a bottleneck of extra motorists because of concerns over public transport. This view is partly corroborated by a reported boom in used car sales: Used cars are increasingly hot property in Australia, with a new report recording a 30 per cent surge in prices since April as buyers rush to avoid public transport and new car dealers face stock shortages.

At Least 13 Killed In Peru Nightclub Stampede Triggered By Police ‘Social Distancing’ Raid – In an example of COVID-19-related law enforcement gone horribly awry, 13 people were killed in a deadly stampede, as patrons tried to flee a surprise police raid on a crowded Lima, Peru nightclub on Saturday night. At least 6 people were seriously injured, including 3 cops. Orlando Velasco Mujica, general of the Peruvian National Police Police, told CNN that police were summoned to the Thomas Restobar in the Los Olivos district of Lima, Peru’s capital city, on Saturday evening. They were ordered to shut down an illegal party, where officials believed more than 120 people were in attendance. Peru is struggling with one of Latin America’s deadliest and most devastating outbreaks. Strict docial distancing measures have been mandated nationwide, along with a 10 pm curfew in an effort to slow the virus’s spread. Despite taking strict preventative measures early on, Peru has racked up more than 576,000 cases, and more than 27,000 deaths, according to JHU. The country has Latin America’s second-highest infection rate. Peru ordered the closure of nightclubs and bars back in March, and banned extended family gatherings on Aug. 12. According to an official statement delivered to CNN, the Ministry of the Interior reported that the police did not use “any type of weapon or tear gas to clear the premises.” When people began to flee the 2nd floor venue, they were crushed on the steep stairs. Already, 23 people have been arrested, and officials are looking to hold the owners of the nightclub responsible.

Canada’s Liberal government slashes COVID-19 emergency aid – Canada’s Justin Trudeau-led Liberal government is dramatically scaling back the financial assistance provided the millions of workers who have lost their jobs due to the COVID-19 pandemic. On Thursday, Chrystia Freeland, the newly-appointed finance minister, announced that the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) will be terminated at the end of September, and that the financial aid for the vast majority of the more than 4.5 million jobless workers now dependent on the CERB for their livelihood will be slashed by 20 percent. This attack on working people and their families is central to the ruling elite’s homicidal back-to-work and back-to-school drive, which is aimed at forcing workers to return to unsafe workplaces so as to generate profits for big business and investors. The majority of those now receiving the CERB, which pays a miserly $500 a week, will be transitioned to Employment Insurance (EI). This change will result in most cases in a 20 percent cut in their weekly assistance, from the lordly sum of $500 to just $400. In steps that only highlight how impoverished the EI program has become after decades of Liberal and Conservative cuts, the government has temporarily eased the number of hours of work needed to obtain benefits and raised the minimum weekly payout. However, overall, eligibility requirements remain much more stringent than for the CERB. EI claimants can be required at any time to prove they are actively seeking employment. Failure to do so can result in sanctions, including the loss of all benefits. Under EI rules, even if they cannot find work, many of those now unemployed will be threatened after just 26 weeks with the loss of all EI benefits and destitution. All of this will, and is meant, to push the jobless into competing for low-paid, precarious employment opportunities.

Low-income Canadians twice as likely to be hospitalized due to self-harm than the wealthiest – Research published recently by the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) found that low-income Canadians are twice as likely to be hospitalized due to self-harm than their counterparts in wealthy neighbourhoods. The study also revealed that 25,000 people were either hospitalized or died due to self-harm last year, the equivalent of about 70 self-harm incidents per day. Around 3,800 of the total cases proved fatal. The suicide rate was highest among men aged 45 and over, which suggests growing levels of despair among a section of the population that has lived through a period of a drastic deterioration in the social position of the working class and skyrocketing levels of inequality. The CIHI figures show that residents in Canada’s lowest-income neighbourhoods were hospitalized at a rate of 104 per 100,000, compared to 49 per 100,000 in the country’s wealthiest areas. Demonstrating the lack of community mental health resources, the study also noted that around one in nine of those hospitalized have had two or more hospital stays due to self-harm within a year. “People are showing up in emergency departments and they’re showing up in hospitals. That’s kind of a place of last resort,” remarked Tracy Johnson, director of health systems analysis and emerging issues for CIHI. “That says to me that these people require more help than they’re getting.” As shocking as these figures are, they are certainly an underestimation of the true extent of the prevalence of self-harm and suicide attempts. The data does not include people who may have been helped by other primary health care providers – family doctors or emergency clinics, or those who went to emergency rooms but were not admitted into care. Moreover, it was gathered prior to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, with the ruling elite’s disastrous response producing a dramatic rise in mental health problems, drug overdoses, and other signs of social distress. Many of the 4 million people still out of work confront on a daily basis, the fear of long-term joblessness and financial crisis, and uncertainty about what the future will bring – all factors known to impact negatively on one’s mental wellbeing. The disproportionate impact of the mental health crisis on the poorest sections of the population revealed in the CIHI study is a reflection of the glaring levels of social inequality in Canada. This is a society where the richest 1 percent owns 25.6 percent of all wealth, which is equivalent to the wealth controlled by the poorest 80 percent. The poorest 40 percent of the population possesses a mere 1.2 percent of all wealth. (See: New report exposes staggering level of social inequality in Canada). It is also the product of decades of austerity spending on health care and other critical social services adopted by all of the major parties.

McKinsey Electric Vehicle Index: Europe cushions a global plunge in EV sales. -McKinsey’s proprietary Electric Vehicle Index (EVI) assesses the dynamics of the e-mobility market in 15 key countries worldwide (for more information on the metrics evaluated, see sidebar “What is the Electric Vehicle Index?”). EVI results for 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 provide important insights about market growth, regional demand patterns, market share for major electric-vehicle (EV) manufacturers, and supply-chain trends. EV sales rose 65 percent from 2017 to 2018. But in 2019, the number of units sold increased only to 2.3 million, from 2.1 million, for year-on-year growth of just 9 percent. Equally sobering, EV sales declined by 25 percent during the first quarter of 2020. The days of rapid expansion have ceased – or at least paused temporarily. Overall, Europe has seen the strongest growth in EVs. In the first quarter of 2020, European EV sales rose as the overall EV penetration rate increased to 7.5 percent. With the exception of Hong Kong, all of the top ten markets for EV penetration were in Europe (Exhibit 2). The strong regulatory tailwinds and high purchase incentives in several European countries could dampen the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and further boost the EV market. That said, EV sales will probably face tougher impediments in second-quarter 2020, when the pandemic’s impact on Europe’s countries and economies should peak. So far, no European OEM has changed its plans to roll out EV models, and several countries are discussing additional purchase incentives as part of their economic-stimulus programs.

UK will pay low-income residents to self-isolate because of COVID-19 – (Reuters) – Britain will pay low-income residents to self-isolate if they have confirmed or suspected coronavirus as the government steps up measures to keep the virus under control. The new policy comes after opposition politicians called on the government to introduce the payments amid concerns that some people who cannot not afford to take time off work were avoiding complying with the health advice. The government said individuals who test positive for the virus will receive 130 pounds for their 10-day period of self-isolation. Other members of their household, who have to self-isolate for 14 days, will be entitled to 182 pounds. The money will be available to people on welfare payments known as Universal Credit or Working Tax Credits, and who are unable to work from home. The scheme will be trialed first in Blackburn, Pendle and Oldham, which had experienced local lockdowns because of their higher rates of the virus. “The British public have already sacrificed a great deal to help slow the spread of the virus. Self-isolating if you have tested positive for COVID-19, or have come into contact with someone who has, remains vital to keeping on top of local outbreaks,” said Matt Hancock, the health minister. The United Kingdom has suffered more than 65,000 excess deaths from coronavirus, according to the government’s statistics office, with a surge that lasted longer and spread to more places than those in other hard-hit European nations like Italy and Spain.

A Levels: Government’s U-turn has Left Universities in the Lurch – The UK government has performed a U-turn on A level exam grades, awarding students in England the marks given by teacher assessment where they are higher than the moderated grades adjusted by what the government now admits was a flawed algorithm. While this is a source of relief for many students, it leaves many universities facing more uncertainty about student numbers and their financial future – with ramifications that may last for years.On the morning of Thursday August 13, many students – in many cases from disadvantaged backgrounds – woke up to find results that did not reflect their mock exam results or grades predicted by their teachers.The algorithm developed by Ofqual to prevent grade inflation as a result of teacher-awarded marks resulted in nearly 40% of marks being lowered. For some students, this meant that they had failed to meet the entry requirements for their preferred university course.As soon as the A level results were out, universities opened phone lines for the clearing process, as they do every year – offering remaining places on under-subscribed courses to students who missed out due to lower than expected grades. Thousands of disappointed students began to contact universities, hoping to salvage their dreams of higher education. Universities responded to students’ clearing applications by looking at individual profiles, awarded marks, predicted grades and personal statements to make a judgement about offers. Universities are keen to make offers to students that match their aspirations, as well as using their academic achievements as a guide for engagement and success with their studies. Then, on Monday August 17 – after a weekend of pressure – the education secretary, Gavin Williamson, announced that England would follow the example of Scotland and award gradesbased on teacher assessment. Northern Ireland and Wales also made the same move on August 17. But the university places that were decided in the five days before this reverse – when the government declared that there would be no U-turn in England – have now been thrown into doubt.

Only 1 in 5 staff in UK cities back in workplaces, think-tank says – (Reuters) – Only 17% of workers in British cities had returned to their workplaces by early August, underscoring the challenge for Prime Minister Boris Johnson to steer the country away from its coronavirus shutdown, data published on Thursday showed. The Centre for Cities said the data, based on mobile phone signals, showed no increase in the footfall of workers going to city centres between late June and the week starting Aug. 3. Johnson last month encouraged people working from home to get back to their workplaces to help the economy recover from its 20% contraction in the April-June period, the biggest fall among big developed economies. “The costs of office closure are becoming clearer by the day,” Carolyn Fairbairn, director-general of the Confederation of British Industry, an employers group, said. “Some of our busiest city centres resemble ghost towns, missing the usual bustle of passing trade. This comes at a high price for local businesses, jobs and communities,” she wrote in an article for the Daily Mail newspaper. Separate figures published by Britain’s statistics office showed almost one in four businesses in accommodation and food services and arts, and the entertainment and recreation industries rated their risk of insolvency as moderate or severe. The Office for National Statistics also said footfall in mid-August in high streets, retail parks and shopping centres had increased to around 70% of its level a year earlier. Vehicle traffic levels on Aug. 24 were just six percentage points lower than in early February, before the pandemic struck.

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