Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666
Here are some more selected news articles about the oil and gas industry from the week ended 28 December 2019. Go here for Part 1.
This is a feature at Global Economic Intersection every Monday evening.
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Russia’s Lavrov says Nord Stream 2 will be launched despite sanctions: Ifax (Reuters) – Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Sunday that the Nord Stream 2 and Turk Stream gas pipeline projects would be launched despite U.S. sanctions, adding that Russia planned to respond to the new measures, the Interfax news agency reported. U.S. President Donald Trump signed a bill on Friday that included legislation imposing sanctions on firms laying pipe for Nord Stream 2, which seeks to double gas capacity along the northern Nord Stream pipeline route to Germany.
Germany Expects Gas Pipeline Delay— The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will be delayed and more costly due to U.S. sanctions but should be completed in the second half of next year, a senior German official said. Switzerland’s AllSeas Group SA removed vessels that were laying the last section of the pipeline connecting Russia with Germany, which was just weeks away from completion, after U.S. President Donald Trump approved sanctions targeting the project. Despite delays and higher costs, the pipeline should be completed in the second half of 2020, Peter Beyer, the German government’s coordinator for trans-Atlantic issues, said Monday in an interview with Deutschlandfunk radio. Less than 160 kilometers of the total 2,460 kilometers remain to be laid, according to Nord Stream 2 AG, the project operator. Trump’s decision was not a surprise but the sanctions are “completely incomprehensible” given the agreement between Russia and Ukraine on gas transit and “not a way to treat friends,” Beyer said. Germany “would have expected a great deal more understanding from the American friends,” added the lawmaker, a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party. Nord Stream 2 is set to ship as much as 55 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually directly to Germany, doubling the capacity of the existing link. As many as 350 European companies are helping to build the pipeline, the German DIHK industry group estimates. Trump has criticized Germany for not doing more to diversify imports away from Russia, while Merkel’s government argues that the $11 billion link is crucial to ensure energy security. The firms involved will continue to work to complete the pipeline as soon as possible “in the interest of energy security, affordable gas prices for European consumers and EU economic competitiveness as well as climate protection commitments,” according to Monday’s Nord Stream 2 AG statement.
Nord Stream 2 pipelayer Allseas suspends operations on US sanctions – Switzerland-based Allseas — which has been integral to laying the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany — has suspended pipelaying activity after US President Donald Trump signed new sanctions into law late Friday, the company said Saturday. The move by Allseas will certainly mean new delays to the completion of the 55 Bcm/year pipeline, which had originally been scheduled to start operations at the end of 2019. “In anticipation of the enactment of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), Allseas has suspended its Nord Stream 2 pipelay activities,” the company said in a brief statement. “Allseas will proceed, consistent with the legislation’s wind down provision and expect guidance comprising of the necessary regulatory, technical and environmental clarifications from the relevant US authority,” it said. The new sanctions language against Nord Stream 2 is part of the NDAA, which had already been approved by the House of Representatives and the Senate. It calls for the US State and Treasury departments to submit a report within 60 days that identifies “vessels that engaged in pipe-laying at depths of 100 feet or more below sea level for the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, the TurkStream pipeline project or any project that is a successor to either such project.” Those ships and identified executives involved with those ships could then face sanctions. According to S&P Global Platts Analytics, Nord Stream 2 would have to seek alternative vessels and contractors to complete the remaining section of pipe in Danish waters if the sanctions are enacted. “While the most challenging parts of Nord Stream 2 have been laid in water depths of around 200 meters, the remaining section in Danish waters at 90 meters depth remains complicated,” it said. Russian companies operate capable offshore pipe-lay vessels, which have completed projects in challenging Arctic conditions, including the MRTS Defender, which worked on the offshore stretch of the Bovanenkovo-Ukhta pipeline. Platts Analytics believes MRTS Fortuna could be used to complete Nord Stream 2, but is capable of laying just 1 km/d. A further obstacle, according to Platts Analytics, is that the Danish permit application states that it is assumed that the vessels used to complete the Danish section will have dynamic positioning capabilities (such as those of the Allseas vessels) which are not present on MRTS Fortuna. A Russian pipelaying vessel that already has dynamic positioning capabilities, Akademik Cherskiy, could be used, but it would take up to two months to arrive to Danish waters as it is currently stationed in Russia’s Far East.
European Firms Stop Work On NS2 Pipeline As Gazprom Readies Own Ships ‘Immune’ To US Sanctions – Trump’s signing the 2020 NDAA into law on Friday, and with it sanctions targeting European and Russian companies laying the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, had the immediate impact of forcing a work stoppage over the weekend as Allseas, the Swiss company that is Nord Stream’s main contractor, confirmed its workers as well as partner contractors have laid down their tools. The new US punitive measures specifically target companies and their executives assembling the pipeline, including the very ships laying the pipeline on the controversial 760-mile project that would allow Russia to export natural gas directly to Germany and is expected to come online within the next year. Despite Allseas set to pull out its fleet of pipe-laying ships, Russia and Germany are vowing to move forward unimpeded, per the WSJ: Its ships Solitaire and Pioneering Spirit, the largest construction vessel in the world, will remain in the area but are no longer laying the pipes, a spokesman for Allseas said. He added that as of Thursday, when work ceased, the project was about one month from being completed. Jens D. Mueller, a spokesman for Nord Stream 2’s parent company, said that the pipeline would be finished despite Allseas pulling out its fleet. And Russia is now hitting back, first by promising Washington will not impede the project, and further with reports that Moscow is drawing up retaliatory sanctions against the US, while not citing specifics. Majority stakehold Gazprom has indicated it’s already taken measures to complete the project while circumventing the US measures. The WSJ continues: In preparation for the sanctions, Gazprom has retrofitted its own ships as well as ships belonging to Russian contractors that don’t do business outside Russia and would therefore be immune to American sanctions, according to one official of the company who spoke on the condition of anonymity. One contractor already involved in the project is the Russian subsea-pipeline construction firm MRTS JSC, a company that operates ships which could be used to complete the pipeline, according to Gazprom. A Russian Foreign Ministry statement described what it claims is in part an attempt by Washington to force its pricey liquefied gas on Europe: “As a result, Europeans will lose on all fronts.” The statement added: “Washington decided that it shouldn’t spare anyone, even its closest allies in NATO, for the sake of its geopolitical ambitions and commercial profit.”
US Sanctions Backfire: Russia’s Gazprom & Ukraine Make Landmark Deal – Sanctions-happy Washington continues to aid in a slow rapprochement between Russia and Ukraine. Ironically enough, at moment the US is demanding Nord Stream 2 contractors to lay down their tools and wind-down operations “immediately” or face further sanctions, there’s been an unprecedented breakthrough in the standoff between Russian state energy giant Gazprom and Kiev: As we detailed earlier this week, Allseas, the Swiss company that is Nord Stream 2’s main contractor, confirmed its workers as well as partner contractors have laid down their tools; however, others have pressed forward as the project is very near completion, also as both Gazprom and the Nord Stream 2 project spokesman have promised to finish. Gazprom says it is now retrofitting its own ships to take over the bulk of pipeline laying that Allseas was overseeing. The WSJ reported previously that “Jens D. Mueller, a spokesman for Nord Stream 2’s parent company, said that the pipeline would be finished despite Allseas pulling out its fleet.” Additionally, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak vowed the 760-mile will be launched before the end of 2020 even after President Trump signed NS2 sanctions into effect last Friday, which target the companies laying the pipeline. Gazprom and five European companies are spearheading the project – among them France’s ENGIE, Austria’s OMV, the UK-Dutch Royal Dutch Shell, and Germany’s Uniper and Wintershall – which includes dozens more smaller contractors. But now there’s less incentive for European companies and Gazprom itself to heed Washington’s warnings and stop work. As Reuters reports of Friday’s major breakthrough:Russia’s Gazprom said on Friday it has paid Ukraine $2.9 billion to settle a legal row, part of a wider gas package deal reached last week.Last week, Russia and Ukraine announced the terms of a new gas transit deal, under which Moscow will supply Europe for at least another five years via its former Soviet neighbour and pay a $2.9 billion settlement to Kiev to end a legal dispute.
‘Complete greenwash’: Western Europe’s largest oilfield ramps up production – defying calls to stop – A newly-discovered oilfield in the Norwegian part of the North Sea is on track to produce almost 0.5% of global oil supplies next year, despite calls for it to immediately stop producing crude altogether. Based approximately 87 miles off the West coast of Norway, the Johan Sverdrup oilfield represents the largest North Sea discovery in more than three decades. It only came on stream in early October, but it is already considered Western Europe’s biggest oil producer, supplying more than 300,000 barrels per day (b/d). Equinor, Norway’s state-controlled oil company and Sverdrup’s operator, has said it expects crude production from this field to increase to 440,000 b/d in the summer of next year – before eventually climbing up to 660,000 b/d after 2022. To put those figures into context, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported earlier this month that global oil supplies stood at 101 million b/d in November. So, assuming total oil output worldwide is little changed over the coming months, the Sverdrup oilfield will soon account for 0.4% of global production. “It is quite significant,” Tamas Varga, senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told CNBC via telephone. The speed of its development has been “absolutely amazing,” he added, especially when you consider “the general perception was that the North Sea was declining as far as output is concerned.” The discovery of the Sverdrup field, and its rapidly rising oil output, comes as global leaders debate the best approach to combat an intensifying climate crisis.
Mysterious crude oil spill in Brazil affects coastal wildlife – An oil spill of unknown origin is reportedly harming Brazil’s wildlife and beaches. For several months, blobs of crude oil have appeared on Brazil’s coastline, Reuters reported, calling the spill the worst in the country’s history. By Dec. 18, more than 950 beaches in 11 states had been affected. Brazilian authorities have made a list of oil tankers that they suspect could be behind the spill, but all of the companies they belong to have denied responsibility, according to the wire service. Reuters reported that 159 animals, including sea turtles, birds and marine mammals, have been affected and that 109 of them have died. The first oil clumps were found in August, but Brazil’s energy minister began attending meetings on the matter in October, according to Reuters, which cited government records. In October, an emergency plan was also activated. Activists told the wire service they worried the government wasn’t doing enough. Separately, Brazil’s government has recently faced international criticism for its handling of fires plaguing the Amazon rainforest. The country notably rejected an offer of international aid to combat the flames.
Boat Carrying 600 Gallons of Oil Sinks off the Galflpagos – A barge containing 600 gallons of diesel fuel sank off the Galflpagos Islands Sunday, prompting fears for the island chain’s unique wildlife. The oil spill occurred off San Cristóbal Island when workers were attempting to load a shipping container onto a barge called the Orca, The New York Times reported. A video shared on social media shows the container falling onto the boat, pulling the crane holding it with it and tipping the boat on its side as people dive off. One was injured, DW reported. “The illegal and dangerous logistics operation carried out on the dock must be moved to another site,” conservation group SOS Galflpagos tweeted Sunday. The group also warned the oil would reach a popular tourist beach, CBS News reported. Authorities declared an emergency and began an investigation into the spill, The New York Times reported. Ecuador’s Ministry of the Environment shared pictures on social media of cleanup efforts undertaken by the Coast Guard and Galflpagos National Park. So far, these efforts have paid off. Ecuadorian President Len’n Moreno said on Twitter Monday that the spill was under control. “Not a single species has been affected by the spill in San Cristóbal,” Ecuador’s Environment Minister Raul Ledesma said, DW reported Tuesday. He said veterinarians had tested several iguanas and two sea lions near the spill site and found they had not been affected. However, authorities are still worried about what could happen if they do not recover the oil tanks that sank. “We are very concerned about the recovery work of the tanks because there could be a potential spill if it is not done efficiently and swiftly,” Ledesma said. The Galflpagos are home to unique species not found anywhere else on the planet, according to CNN. The islands’ unique wildlife and ecosystems helped Charles Darwin develop his theory of evolution, and the chain is now a UNESCO World Heritage site.
Ecuador says Galapagos fuel spill under control – Ecuador officials announced Sunday that a fuel spill in the Galapagos Islands, caused when a barge sank carrying 600 gallons of diesel fuel, was “under control.” Authorities had activated emergency protocols earlier Sunday to contain the environmental impact of the spill in the Galapagos archipelago, a UNESCO World Heritage Site that is home to one of the most fragile ecosystems on the planet. “The situation is under control, and a series of actions have been deployed to mitigate the possible effects,” the presidential communications office said in a statement, adding the response operation had “controlled” the spill. The accident, in which one person was injured, occurred in a port on San Cristobal Island, the easternmost island in the chain, when a crane collapsed while loading a container holding an electric generator onto a barge. The falling container destabilized the ship, which was carrying 600 gallons of diesel fuel, causing it to sink. The generator and the loading crane were also submerged. The Emergency Operations Committee (COE) took “immediate action to reduce the environmental risk” in the so-called Enchanted Islands. Personnel from the Galapagos National Park (GNP), the official nature reserve authority, and the Ecuadorian Navy set up spill containment barriers and oil absorbent cloths around the fuel patch. Galapagos minister Norman Wray told reporters that work was under way to recover the diesel. He also said the generator, which was intended to supply energy on Isabela Island, and the barge would be replaced “as soon as possible.” Isabela Island, the largest island, is currently facing energy rationing. Wray assured reporters that food supply levels in the Galapagos would remain normal despite the loss of the barge.
South Sudan oil spill causes environmental damage, health problems – Two months after a pipeline ruptured and spilled crude oil over a wide swath of South Sudan’s former Unity State, residents and government officials are grappling with a new pipeline break and the subsequent impact of leaks on public safety and the environment. In the latest incident, residents said oil leaked at Kailoy, about 10 kilometers west of the Unity Oil Field. They said it caught fire Dec. 21 and burned for two days, sending thick plumes of smoke into the air. The Chinese Greater Pioneer Operating Company (GPOC) owns and operates the field. Area residents said they were concerned about the failure of oil companies to detect spills and their inability to put out the fires that the residents said were likely started by nearby charcoal makers. Kailoy resident Kai Pan said he thought local charcoal makers inadvertently caused the fire. “The fire started at 2 p.m. [local time]. We saw that it started where people were cutting trees for [burning] charcoal, and it started going toward the oil pipeline, which is just 10 kilometers from Bentiu oil camp,” Pan told VOA’s South Sudan in Focus program. Bentiu is the capital of Northern Liech state and is near the border with Sudan. Pan said that after the fire broke out, cases of airborne diseases, which many suspected were caused by oil fumes, were reported in the area. “People are now having a lot of coughing in this area, and also there are some skin problems and also eye pain among residents of this area,” Pan said. He said oil-spill-related fires were still burning near Kailoy, posing a threat to the community. Duol Bim, director-general at Northern Liech state’s health ministry, said oil companies operating in South Sudan do not follow international safety procedures in handling oil spills. “They don’t have firetrucks, they don’t have fire extinguishers, they have nothing. They went there but could not do anything to make sure that the fire is contained. It was just left like that, and it continued burning for two days,” Bim told South Sudan in Focus. Bim said GPOC not only failed to detect the oil leakage soon after it happened but also had failed to extinguish the fires. “In this case, there is negligence on the side of the oil company that is in the area, because if leakages are happening and are not being detected on time, it shows that the oil company is not doing a good job,” said Bim. In October, a previously undetected oil leak from a burst pipeline in the Budang area of former Unity State was discovered by a hungry soldier who was hunting for wild fruits.
Repsol to be fined by EPA for mud spill offshore – The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is preparing to levy a fine against Spanish oil company, Repsol for a mud spill which occurred offshore in the Kanuku Block, even as the agency mulls lobbing government to push for 24/7 oversight and for new legislation to raise the paltry levies attached to such incidents.
Exxon Hits More Oil Pay Offshore Guyana — Exxon Mobil Corp. and Hess Corp. Monday reported another oil discovery offshore Guyana at the Mako-1 well southeast of the Liza Field, which just achieved first oil. According to ExxonMobil, Mako-1 on the Stabroek Block adds to the acreage’s 6 billion-plus oil-equivalent barrels of estimated recoverable resources. ExxonMobil noted that drilling activities in Guyana continue with four drillships to further explore and appraise new resources and develop the resources within approved projects. The supermajor’s Esso Exploration and Production Guyana Limited operates the Stabroek Block and owns a 45-percent interest in it. Owners of the remaining 55 percent include coventurers Hess Guyana Exploration Ltd. (30 percent) and CNOOC Petroleum Guyana Limited (25 percent). Hess reported separately that Mako-1 encountered approximately 164 feet (50 meters) of high-quality oil-bearing sandstone. The company added the well was drilled in 5,315 feet (1,620 meters) of water.
Apache, Total to jointly develop Block 58 offshore Suriname – Apache Corp. and Total SA have formed a joint venture to explore and develop Block 58 offshore Suriname. The companies will each hold a 50% working interest in the block, which comprises about 1.4 million acres in water depths of less than 100 m to more than 2,100 m. Apache will operate the first three exploration wells in the block, including the Maka Central-1 well, and subsequently transfer operatorship to Total. Upon meeting certain drilling commitments, the partnership has the rights to explore the entire block through mid-2026 without acreage relinquishments, providing for what Apache described as “a thorough evaluation of the multiple play types we have identified in this emerging oil-prone basin.” “Apache and Total are encouraged by the preliminary information and test results from the two upper Cretaceous play types encountered thus far,” added John J. Christmann, chief executive officer and president of Apache. “Deepening and testing operations continue at Maka Central-1. Following the completion of these activities, the rig will be moving to the next location.” In exchange for its 50% working interest, Apache will receive various forms of consideration, including: $5 billion of cash carry on Apache’s first $7.5 billion of appraisal and development capital; 25% cash carry on all of Apache’s appraisal and development capital beyond the first $7.5 billion; various cash payments in conjunction with closing of the joint venture agreement and future production from joint development projects; and reimbursement of 50% of all costs incurred to date in Block 58.
Shell Makes Significant Find Offshore Australia — Shell Australia has announced a “significant” gas and condensate discovery in the Browse Basin off the North West Coast of Western Australia. The find was made through the Bratwurst-1 exploration well, which was said to be successfully concluded after a 78-day campaign. The discovery is located 99 miles north east of the Shell operated Prelude FLNG facility and presents an opportunity for a future tie-back to Prelude, according to Shell. No figures were released in connection with the discovery, but it was said to support Shell’s growth plans for “more and cleaner energy, with LNG being the predominant focus for Shell in Australia”. Shell Australia has a record of investing in large projects. In October this year, Shell’s QGC business announced that the 500th cargo of LNG had sailed from its LNG plant on Curtis Island, Queensland. In June, Shell revealed that the first shipment of LNG had sailed from its Prelude FLNG facility located 295 miles North East of Broome in Western Australia.
Leviathan Delays Start of Commercial Operations | Rigzone — The launch of production at Israel’s Leviathan natural gas field has been delayed pending permits from the Ministry of Environmental Protection. “The flow of gas from the reservoir hasn’t yet begun,” Israel’s Delek Drilling LP, a partner to the project, said Tuesday in a statement to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. “The partnership believes that it will begin in coming days, after the necessary permits are received from the Ministry of Environmental Protection.” The statement didn’t elaborate. Environmental groups concerned about the field’s impact on air pollution and public health have been waging a protest against its operations and last week won a daylong temporary injunction from an Israeli court. They were planning to abandon their homes in towns along the shoreline for the first 24 hours of the platform’s operation. The Israeli government hailed the discovery of Leviathan in 2010 as a milestone to ensuring energy independence and a tool to bolster its geopolitical influence through major export deals. Delek Drilling LP and U.S.-based Noble Energy Inc. own about 45% and 40% of the project respectively.
Kuwait, Saudi Arabia to resume joint oil production – Al-Khafji Joint Operations (KJO) and Wafra Joint Operations (WJO) will resume crude oil production in the Saudi-Kuwaiti divided zone in 2020, starting gradually but targeting year-end production of 325,000 b/d. The two countries agreed to terms Dec. 24, 2019. Production was suspended at KJO in October 2014 and WJO in May 2015. Combined capacity is estimated at 500,000 b/d. KJO, a partnership of Kuwait Gulf Oil Co. (KGOC) and Aramco Gulf Oil Co. (AGOC), manages offshore operations in a 7,000-sq km area of the partitioned zone between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. WJO, partnering KGOC and Saudi Arabian Chevron, manages production in the 5,000-sq km onshore portion of the partitioned zone. KJO includes four major fields – Khafji, Hout, Lulu, and Dorra – with production and potential production horizons including First Bahrain sand, Second Bahrain sand, Ratawi limestone, Ahmadi limestone, Mauddud limestone, Wara sand, and Zubair sand.WJO includes six major fields – Wafra, South Fuwaris, South Umm-Gudair, Humma, Arq, and North Wafra – with producing and potential producing reservoirs including First Eocene, Second Eocene, Maastrichtian, Hartha (Lower Senonean), Ahmadi sand, Wara sand, Third Burgan, Ratawi sand, Ratawi limestone, Ratawi oolite, and Marrat.
‘It’s a complete mess’: Energy market in flux ahead of a global shipping revolution, analysts warn A much-anticipated and historic rule change to shipping fuel standards will come into force in less than two weeks, leaving energy market participants braced for a period of confusion and uncertainty.On January 1, 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) will impose new emissions regulations designed to significantly curb pollution produced by the world’s ships. Amid a broader push toward cleaner energy markets, the IMO is poised to ban shipping vessels using fuel with a sulfur content higher than 0.5%. At present, the upper limit on sulfur oxides is 3.5%.Major oil companies and shipowners have spent billions of dollars preparing for the changes but energy analysts have expressed some concern that many in the oil and shipping industries still appear to be unprepared.“The market is in complete flux. Nobody seems to have the answers of how this will play out,” Patrik Berglund, CEO of Xeneta, a Norwegian-based company that crowdsources freight data, told CNBC via telephone.Berglund had previously described IMO 2020 as the “opportunity of a lifetime” for shipping liners to raise their prices, since the entire industry expected increased costs.“We would have expected to see these cost increases already… (but) shipping liners are definitely not capitalizing on this opportunity. It is flabbergasting.”“It is a complete mess and the customers are suffering with all of this uncertainty,” he added.The new regulations are the result of a recommendation that came from a subcommittee at the United Nations (UN) more than a decade ago and was adopted in 2016 by the UN’s IMO, which sets rules for shipping safety, security and pollution. The entire industry is under intense pressure to slash its sulfur emissions, given the pollutant is a component of acid rain, which harms vegetation and wildlife and is also blamed for some respiratory illnesses. More than 170 countries, including the U.S., have signed on to the fuel change.
Patterns of GPS Spoofing at Chinese Ports – Aggressive GPS spoofing impacting shipping has been detected in over 20 Chinese coastal sites during 2019. These included the ports of Shanghai, Fuzhou (Huilutou), Qingdao, Quanzhou (Shiyucun), Dalian, and Tianjin. GPS spoofing in Shanghai had been discussed informally among maritime interests for months before a formal report was filed with the U.S. Coast Guard earlier this year. The non-profit C4ADS became interested and found that spoofing had been going on for some time. Also that, over time, many of the false vessel positions tended to form a circle some distance inland. The MIT Technology Review published an article about this phenomena last month. The MIT article caught the interest of an analyst at the environmental non-profit Skytruth who decided to take a more comprehensive look. Evaluating a larger data set of ship AIS data, analyst Bjorn Bergman discovered at least 20 locations near the Chinese coast where similar spoofing had taken place in 2019. 14 of these “spoofing circle” locations were oil terminals. The most frequent occurrences, by far were at the port of Dalian in northern China, close to the border with North Korea. The timing of the spoofing, imposition of sanctions on purchase of Iranian oil by the United States, and observations by others of Iranian oil being received by China, suggests that some of the spoofing may be designed to help conceal these transactions. Of the locations not associated with oil terminals, three were government offices and one was the headquarters of the Qingjian industrial group, a huge engineering and construction conglomerate.
Hedge Funds Boost Bets on Rising US Crude Prices – Hedge funds boosted bets on rising U.S. crude prices to the highest level in more than seven months, helping support oil’s first full week above $60 a barrel since May. Their net-bullish wagers on West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 19% in the week ended Dec. 17, data released Friday show. Optimism over a U.S.-China trade truce and OPEC cuts helped push futures to a three-month high, though the rally has fizzled somewhat. “I expect to see more length in the market as a function of what looks to be the successful negotiation of Phase 1 of the U.S.-China trade pact, as well as the OPEC meeting with their pledge to reduce output,” said Andrew Lebow, senior partner at Commodity Research Group in New York. The improved outlook for trade and OPEC’s pledge to deepen output cuts are helping U.S. oil head for a rebound of more than 30% this year, its best performance since 2016. That’s after a 25% slump in 2018. It also seems that America’s shale boom is slowing down and several forecasts for the country’s crude output next year have been lowered. “U.S. production estimates continue to fall,” said Rebecca Babin, senior equity trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “A likely return of the downside from last year was mitigated by Phase 1 of the China-U.S deal, and OPEC staying on price stability theme instead of market share.” Money managers’ WTI net-long position, or the difference between bullish and bearish bets, climbed to 272,218 futures and options, the highest level since April, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Long-only wagers jumped 13%, while shorts declined 24%.
Oil Down as Kuwait Nears Deal with Saudis on Output— Oil extended losses after the biggest decline in three weeks as Kuwait signaled a deal with Saudi Arabia to renew crude output along their border and as U.S. shale explorers increased drilling. February futures dropped 0.4% in New York after falling 1.2% on Friday, the most since Nov. 29. The shared neutral zone, which has been shut for at least four years due to disputes between the two countries, can produce as much as 500,000 barrels a day. U.S. explorers last week boosted drilling by the most in almost two years, according to data from Baker Hughes Co. on Friday. Oil is up about 9% this month after the U.S. and China struck a preliminary trade pact and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to deepen output cuts. Hedge funds increased bullish bets in the week ended Dec. 17 to the highest level in more than seven months on rising crude prices, according to data released Friday. “Oil prices will continue to benefit from positive developments in the U.S.-China trade,” Stephen Innes, a market strategist at AxiTrader, said in a note. “The seasonal demand slowdown in the first quarter could be an issue for this bullish view.” West Texas Intermediate for February delivery fell 21 cents to $60.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:34 a.m. London time. The contract declined 74 cents to settle at $60.44 on Friday. Brent for February settlement fell 14 cents, or 0.2%, to $66 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The contract fell 40 cents to close at $66.14 on Friday. The global benchmark crude traded at a $5.78 premium to WTI. Resuming output at the Wafra and Khafji oilfields in the neutral zone depends on a political decision and a final agreement, Kuwait’s Oil Minister Khaled Al-Fadhel said on Sunday. Even if production resumes, the area wouldn’t add oil to global markets because both nations adhere to OPEC supply limits, a person familiar with Saudi thinking said in October.
Oil moves higher, building on 3rd straight week of gains – Oil prices were little changed on Monday as Russia said an OPEC-led producer group may consider easing output cuts next year, offsetting support from some investor optimism that an initial U.S.-China trade deal would be signed soon. Brent crude was up 28 cents, or 0.4%, at $66.42 per barrel in thin trading ahead of the Christmas holiday. West Texas Intermediate gained 8 cents to settle at $60.52 per barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other top producing nations led by Russia agreed this month to extend and deepen output cuts in the first quarter of 2020. However, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday that the group, known as OPEC+, may consider easing the output restrictions at its meeting in March. “We can consider any options, including gradual easing of quotas, including continuation of the deal,” Novak told Russia’s RBC TV in an interview recorded last week, adding that Russia’s oil output was set to hit a record high this year. Non-OPEC global supply is expected to rise next year due to higher output from countries including the United States, Brazil, Norway and Guyana, which became an oil producer last week. Another source of more oil could emerge in the coming months after Kuwait indicated that a longstanding dispute over the “Neutral Zone” on its border with Saudi Arabia will be resolved by the end of 2019. Production at two large oil fields in the Neutral Zone was halted more than three years ago, cutting output by some 500,000 barrels per day. “Oil prices remained soft after Friday’s drop that stemmed from the Saudi Arabia and Kuwait deal to resume production along their border … The short-squeeze on oil may be running out of steam but if WTI and Brent prices can hold $60 and $65 respectively, we could see prices remain supported going into the first few weeks of January,”
Bullish Sentiment Keeps Oil Above $60 – Oil prices were relatively lifeless at the start of the week, holding onto recent gains, but not moving much in either direction. . A Wall Street Journal survey of 13 major investment banks finds that analysts see oil prices falling next year as the OPEC+ deal fails to rally prices. The average Brent forecast is $61.23 per barrel in the first quarter of 2020, barely up from last month’s forecast despite the deeper production cuts. In the short run, investors are bullish – net-bullish wagers on oil futures rose to their highest level in seven months last week. Permian shale wells are producing a higher gas-to-oil ratio than expected, another blow to shale drillers’ profits. “Activity levels are no longer what they were,” said Artem Abramov, head of shale research at Rystad Energy. “The oil ratio is no longer sufficient to offset gas in older wells, so we’re seeing some increase in basin-wide” gas-to-oil ratios. The focus on the Delaware sub-basin is also contributing, as that area is gassier. . Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are on the brink of a deal to restart production at the Neutral Zone oil fields that lie on the border of the two countries, potentially ending a five-year dispute. The fields can produce 500,000 bpd but were shut down in 2014. The restart would still be subject to the OPEC+ deal, meaning any increase would likely need to be offset elsewhere. Equinor and Rosneft agreed to jointly develop the Severo-Komsomolskoye oilfield in the Arctic. Exxon and Hess Corp. started production at the Liza field in offshore Guyana, a highly-anticipated project that will ramp up to 120,000 bpd in the coming months. On Monday, Exxon saidit made another discovery at its Mako-1 well southeast of the Liza field. Total said that it would pay a bonus of $100 million as part of a previously announced deal with Apache to develop an offshore project in Suriname. The project adds to the excitement around the Guyana-Suriname basin. Lending to oil companies in the Permian is slowing, as banks seek to reduce their exposure. Some banks are growing more concerned that the reduced value of shale assets could fail to cover for missed debt payments. President Trump signed a new law that puts sanctions on any companies working on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and a Swiss company working on the project suspended construction. However, the sanctions probably won’t stop the project altogether, as it is very close to completion. The pressure on Iraq from OPEC+ members to comply with the deal is bearing fruit – Iraq’s output is expected to be 110,000-bpd lower this month. But Iraq would still be about 200,000 bpd over its agreed upon limit. “It seems a stretch to imagine that they will voluntarily reduce production by the amount that is required,” Daniel Gerber, chief executive officer of Petro-Logistics, told Bloomberg.
Oil Up as US Crude Stockpiles Seen Shrinking (Bloomberg) — Oil traded above $60 a barrel ahead of U.S. government data forecast to show crude stockpiles shrank, while Iraq trimmed output as Saudi Arabia applied pressure on nations to better comply with cuts. Futures were steady in New York after adding 0.1% on Monday. American crude stockpiles fell by 1.7 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey before Energy Information Administration data on Friday. U.S. industry figures are due later Tuesday. Iraq pared output by 110,000 barrels a day in December, according to Petro-Logistics SA. Oil has rallied about 10% this month after the U.S. and China made a breakthrough on trade and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners including Russia agreed to deepen output cuts. American crude inventories are shrinking even as the nation pumps near record levels and shale explorers boost drilling. “Prices are rising but the market is monitoring data on U.S. oil production and inventories,” Jun Inoue, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute, said by email. Crude has been bolstered by the OPEC+ decision to cut production further and the progress of trade talks between the U.S. and China, he said. West Texas Intermediate for February delivery rose 5 cents to $60.57 a barrel as of 7:28 a.m. London time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract added 8 cents to close at $60.52 on Monday. Brent for February settlement rose 12 cents to $66.51 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The contract gained 25 cents to close at $66.39 on Monday. The global benchmark traded at a $5.93 premium to WTI.
Oil gains 1% on US-China Trade Deal Expectations – Oil prices rose on Tuesday in thin pre-Christmas trading after Russia said cooperation with OPEC on supply cuts would continue and amid optimism that the United States and China could finalize a trade agreement. Brent crude was up 81 cents, or 1.22%, at $67.20 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 59 cents, or 1%, to settle at $61.11 per barrel. OPEC and Russia will continue their cooperation as long as it is “effective and brings results,” Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said in an interview on Monday. OPEC and allies agreed in November to extend and deepen output curbs in place since 2017. Under the reduced output, as much as 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) could be taken off the market, or about 2% of global demand. Still, OPEC needs to do more to balance the market on a sustainable basis, Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil market research at Rystad Energy, said in a note. “The OPEC cuts didn’t fully solve the problem instead they offer a light bandage to get through the first quarter of 2020,” said Tonhaugen. The market also rose as U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have a signing ceremony to sign the first phase of the U.S.-China trade deal agreed to this month.. Trade tensions between the two countries have weighed on the oil market because of worries of a slowdown in demand growth. Still, the market faces headwinds from growing supply. A deal signed on Tuesday between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia on the Neutral Zone between the two countries could add to supply next year. The agreement aims to end a five-year dispute between the OPEC members and reopen fields which can produce 0.5 million bpd, or 0.5% of global supply. U.S. oil major Chevron Corp, which helps operate the fields, said full production was expected within 12 months.
Global Crude Oil Prices Hit 3.5-Month Highs as Russia, Trump Reaffirm Deal Commitments — Global crude oil prices hit three-and-a-half-month highs on Tuesday based largely on Russia’s pledge to honor production cuts promised to OPEC and President Donald Trump’s reiteration of a trade deal with China. London-traded Brent, the global benchmark for crude oil, rose 81 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $67.20. Earlier in the day, it hit $67.25 – its highest value since mid-September. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude benchmark, was up 61 cents, or 1 percent, at $61.13 per barrel. Both Brent and WTI are up double digits on the year, with the UK benchmark rising 25 percent while its US peer showing a 35 percent gain. Tuesday’s rally in oil came after Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak was quoted saying that Russia and OPEC will continue their cooperation on oil production cuts so long as the pact was effective and brought positive results. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other oil producing nations led by Russia announced earlier this month plans to deepen their joint output cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day to as much as 2.1 million barrels per day, or 2.1 percent of world supply, in the first quarter of 2020. Tuesday’s rally in oil also came after Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida’s Palm Beach that there will be a signing ceremony to formalize Phase One of the US-China trade deal that was negotiated earlier this month.
U.S. crude oil stocks fall more than expected in week -API – (Reuters) – U.S. crude oil stocks fell more than expected in the most recent week while gasoline and distillate inventories increased, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday. Crude inventories fell by 7.9 million barrels in the week to Dec. 20 to 444.1 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a draw of 1.83 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 2.2 million barrels, API said. Refinery crude runs fell by 514,000 barrels per day, API data showed. Gasoline stocks rose by 566,000 barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2 million-barrel gain. Distillate fuel inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 1.68 million barrels, compared with expectations for an 867,000-barrel gain, the data showed. U.S. crude imports fell last week by 331,000 barrels per day to 6.4 million bpd.
Oil Prices Continue to Reach New Highs Based on Expectations of US Stockpile Reductions – Crude oil prices hit fresh highs on Thursday for nearly four-month period based on expectations that US inventories fell sharply last week as refineries turned out more gasoline and other fuel products for the holiday season and on China bolstering hopes for an imminent trade deal with the United States. London-traded Brent – the global benchmark for crude oil – increased 40 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $67.60 by 11:00 a.m. Brent increased to $67.89 earlier in the day – its highest value since mid-September. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the US crude benchmark – was up 44 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $61.55 per barrel. Earlier in the day, WTI hit a new high for the past three-and-a-half-month period of $61.76. Crude oil prices spiked after data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a sharp drawdown of 7.9 million barrels in US crude stockpiles last week, versus the 1.8-million-barrel decline forecast by analysts. The API data suggest that refiners turned out more gasoline and other fuel products last week in anticipation of higher road travel and package deliveries for the holiday season. However, the API data has to be affirmed by official numbers from the US Energy Information Administration that is due on Friday. Oil prices also increased as a result of stocks hitting record highs on Thursday after China’s Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng stated that Beijing was in close touch with Washington on a tentative Phase One trade deal. Wall Street, a proxy for oil market sentiment, has had one of its biggest and most prolonged bull runs this year on optimism over the US-China trade deal and US economic indicators.
Oil prices end at 3-month high as report shows 7.9 million drop in U.S. crude inventories – Crude-oil prices settled solidly higher Thursday, in thin postholiday action, as a weekly inventory report indicated a bigger-than-expected decline in stockpiles for oil. American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday that U.S. crude supplies fell by 7.9 million barrels for the week ended Dec. 20, according to sources. That was more than analysts’ consensus expectations for a draw of draw of 1.83 million barrels, according to Reuters. The weekly inventory report also showed a 2.2 million barrel decline in key U.S. oil delivery hub Cushing, Okla. The API data came after that report showed a major buildup in stockpiles last week and the current report could provide a lift for crude prices which have been steadily climbing lately, wrote Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group. “It appears that the API wanted to make up for the lost time and this reflects growing global oil demand,” he wrote in a Thursday research report. West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery, the U.S. benchmark grade, added 57 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $61.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising 1% on Tuesday. The settlement marked the highest for the benchmark since Sept. 16, according to Dow Jones Market Data. February Brent crude rose 72 cents, or 1.1%, to finish at $67.92 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, following a 1.2% gain in the prior session. The international benchmark also finished at a more than three-month high. Trading was mostly subdued, with a number of markets remaining closed for the holidays. Commodity markets were closed on Wednesday for the Christmas holiday period and that closure has delayed the release of U.S. government data from the Energy Information Administration on crude stocks and those for natural gas, which will both be distributed on Friday.
Oil turns negative ahead of US inventory data – Oil prices retreated from three-month highs on Friday, moving lower despite upbeat economic data from China and the United States and optimism over a trade deal between the two major economies. Brent crude futures shed 29 cents to trade at $67.63 per barrel, after previously rising as high as $68.10, the highest since September. The West Texas Intermediate contract fell 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $61.32 per barrel. Volume of oil trade remained thin in the Christmas holidays and New Year breaks. Data on Friday showed profits at China’s industrial firms rose at the fastest pace in eight months in November. Among sectors, the chemical, petroleum processing and steel industries reported recovering profits last month due to rebounding market demand and rising prices amid easing trade hostilities with Washington. China and the United States cooled their 17-month long trade war earlier this month, announcing a Phase 1 agreement that would reduce some U.S. tariffs in exchange for more Chinese purchases of American farm products. The lingering ripple effect of the trade row, however, showed up in data from Japan, the world’s third-biggest economy, on Friday as industrial output shrank for a second month in November. In the United States, a survey on Thursday showed that online holiday purchases by U.S. consumers reached a record, beating analysts’ expectations and sending U.S. stocks to fresh.
Oil Near 3-Month High on Signs of Shrinking Supplies | Rigzone – Oil held gains near the highest level in more than three months on indications of shrinking U.S. crude stockpiles and optimism in the global economic outlook. Futures rose as much as 0.4% in New York after adding 0.9% on Thursday, set for the biggest monthly increase since January. American crude stockpiles fell by 1.5 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey before government data on Friday. Jobless claims in the U.S. fell to a three-week low, reflecting a solid labor market in the world’s no. 1 economy. Oil is up about 12% this month after the U.S. and China made a breakthrough in their prolonged trade dispute and as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to deepen output cuts. The American Petroleum Institute reported Tuesday that crude stockpiles dropped by 7.9 million barrels last week, according to Reuters, which would be the largest draw since August if confirmed by official data. “We have some good economic data coming out of the U.S. and there’s some buying euphoria,” said Howie Lee, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “Crude has been on a steady upward trend from October when the U.S. and China first discussed a trade deal, and in the absence of any risk on the horizon, markets are trading on the back of this optimism.” West Texas Intermediate for February delivery rose 22 cents to $61.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 8:23 a.m. London time. The contract added 57 cents to settle at $61.68 on Thursday, the highest level since Sept. 16. Prices are also heading for a fourth weekly advance, the longest run of gains since April. Brent for February settlement climbed 24 cents to $68.16 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices are up about 9% this month. The spread between the global benchmark crude traded at a $6.25 premium to WTI. The Energy Information Administration is forecast to report a second weekly decline in crude stockpiles. American inventories are shrinking even as the nation pumps oil at near-record levels and shale explorers boost drilling. Separately, U.S. jobless claims dropped to 222,000 in the week ended Dec. 21 from 235,000, according to Labor Department figures released Thursday.
WTI Rebounds On Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw – Oil has retraced some of the gains from light trading yesterday, but prices are still set for the biggest monthly gain in almost a year amid optimism on trade and speculation that supplies are shrinking.“A lot of the recent strength in oil prices has been speculative fund flows and short covering in the front months into year-end 2019.” said Leo Mariani, an analyst at Keybanc Capital Markets.“We think there is a good chance that oil prices will be higher in several years as non-OPEC production growth slows materially into the next decade.”Notably, API reported that U.S. stockpiles dropped 7.9 million barrels last week (gasoline +566k, distillates +1.68mm), while Russia cut crude output. Olivier Jakob, managing director of consultant Petromatrix GmbH, adds that a “weekly stock draw could provide a final boost for the end-year print,” referring to the government report. DOE:
- Crude -5.474mm (-1.5mm exp)
- Cushing -2.393mm
- Gasoline +1.963mm
- Distillates -152k
After the huge API reported crude draw, DOE confirmed it with a bigger than expected 5.474mm drop in inventories (and Cushing stocks down for the 7th week in a row)… Crude production hovered near record highs and we note that the oil rig count unexpectedly surged by 18 last week – the biggest weekly jump since Feb 2018… WTI rallied on the API data, reverted lower overnight before surging back to new cycle highs as stocks opened yesterday. The opposite has happened so far today with a pre-open spike that just failed to tag $62, and then WTI tumbling as stocks rolled lower. But the bigger than expected crude draw sent prices higher…
Oil prices ends day and week higher as EIA report shows bigger-than-expected crude drop – Crude oil prices edged higher Friday and finished a holiday-shortened week near a three-month peak, after a report showed a bigger-than-expected decline in U.S. stores of crude and its byproducts. The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude supplies fell by 5.467 million barrels for the week ended Dec. 20. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts had forecast a decrease of 3 million barrels, although the less closely followed American Petroleum Institute report showed a 7.9 million-barrel tumble late Tuesday, according to sources. EIA data also showed supply increases of 1.963 million barrels for gasoline stocks and a decline of roughly 152,000 barrels for distillates. U.S. energy reports were delayed this week due to the Christmas holiday. West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery, the U.S. benchmark grade, rose 4 cents, or less than 0.1%, to end at $61.72 a barrel in up-and-down trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The slight gains, however, helped the most-active contract hold around its highest price since Sept. 16, according to Dow Jones Market Data, with a weekly gain of about 2.1%. February Brent crude, meanwhile, added 24 cents, or 0.4%, at $68.16 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, following a 1.1% gain in the prior session. That contract expires on Dec. 30. The March contract, which is currently the most active, added 11 cents, or 0.2%, at $66.87 a barrel. For the week, Brent’s February contract climbed 3.7%, while March Brent rose 2.6% in the week to date. Both Brent oil and WTI have risen for four consecutive weeks. Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group, said that the EIA inventory data reflect refiners, who process crude, ramping up activity and helping to take down supplies. “It looks like refiners are back…” Flynn told MarketWatch. “So very supportive!” All that said, market participants also were digesting a report signaling that the group known as OPEC+, including members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia, may consider ending a pact to reduce global production next year.
Oil Ends up 4th Week in a Row; Looks Ripe for Correction – Oil prices settled up on Friday after the U.S. government reported a much bigger fall in crude inventories than anticipated. But analysts said the market was probably ripe for a correction after gaining nearly 14% since the end of October. West Texas Intermediate futures, the benchmark for U.S. crude, settled up four cents at $61.72 per barrel. It earlier hit a 3-1/2 month high of $61.97. London-traded Brent, the global crude benchmark, closed the regular New York session up 24 cents at $68.16. It earlier rose to a mid-September high of $68.31. Both WTI and Brent have risen about without pause for four weeks now, their longest streak of gains since April. Aside from a cumulative gain of almost 14% over the past two months, WTI is up almost 36% for 2019, while Brent has gained about 26%. Friday’s bounce in oil came after the EIA announced that U.S. crude inventories fell by 5.474 million barrels for the week ended Dec. 20. The market was expecting a drop of about 1.7 million barrels, according to forecasts compiled by Investing.com. The numbers were delayed until Friday due to the Christmas holidays. While the drawdown announced by the EIA was larger than unexpected, Friday’s market gains were muted, “because the market has gone up so much over the past two weeks, riding the wave of the China deal talk and other demand prospects,” Gasoline inventories rose by 1.96 million barrels, compared with expectations for a rise of about 1.66 million barrels. Distillate inventories fell by 152,000 barrels, versus forecasts for a build of 800,000 barrels. Crude imports came in higher at 6.8 million barrels per day, and refinery runs remained high, above 93%. “On the bearish side, crude production returned to the record high levels of 12.9 million barrels per day, though the increase on the week is just about 100,000 bpd,” . “And exports fell by 236,000 bpd to around 3.4 million.”
A Bullish End To The Year For Oil Markets – Oil seems set to close out the year on a high note. Oil prices are roughly 30 percent higher than they were at the start of the year, although 12 months ago saw a sudden and steep downturn. Still, WTI rose above $61 in recent days, and investors are more bullish than they have been in months. That does not mean that the downside risks have gone away – the IEA still sees a supply surplus in the first quarter – but there is now hope that the market is closer to balance than it has been in a long time. The U.S. shale industry closes the door on a wild decade, complete with record production levels, but also widespread financial wreckage. The growth-at-all-costs business model just won’t cut it in the 2020s, Liam Denning says for Bloomberg Opinion. After a decade of ups and downs, 2019 may turn out to be a pivotal year – investors began to turn their backs on the shale industry, after repeatedly placing larger and larger bets on the hope that the industry would eventually become profitable. That doesn’t mean that financing has entirely dried up, but in addition to financial hurdles, drillers are also facing rising scrutiny over climate change, which is starting to affect decision-making at big banks. China plans to launch an energy exchange that will make buying and selling energy-related products much easier. But the exchange will also increase – to the worry of many – China’s geopolitical foothold in new markets. There has been an uptick in interest in offshore oil drilling in Gabon, an indication that Africa could become a prime drilling spot in the 2020s. Automotive analysts say that 2020 could be the year of the electric car due to a wave of new EV models that will hit showrooms. In Europe, the number of EV models available will rise from 100 to 175 by the end of the year. That will rise to 330 by 2025. Analysts say that the market share for EVs could rise from 3.4 to 5.5 percent of all cars sold. There is a growing consensus that the window for major independent LNG export projects is closing, which means that 2020 could be a shakeout year for the sector. “It’s getting late. It’s getting dark. It’s much tougher,” Michael Webber, an independent LNG analyst and managing partner of Webber Research & Advisory, told S&P Global Platts. “Liquidity issues are going to have real teeth to them next year. The rubber will meet the road for a lot of these projects.” Chinese tariffs on U.S. LNG could also delay project sanctioning.
Saudi Arabia sentences five to death for murder of Jamal Khashoggi – Five men have been sentenced to death and another three face a total of 24 years in prison for their roles in the gruesome murder of the dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul last year, the Saudi public prosecutor’s office has said. Eight of the 11 people on trial were found guilty of the killing, which triggered the kingdom’s biggest diplomatic crisis since the 9/11 attacks as world leaders and business executives sought to distance themselves from Riyadh. However, the investigation concluded “the killing was not premeditated … the decision was taken at the spur of the moment,” the deputy public prosecutor and spokesperson Shalaan bin Rajih Shalaan said, reading the verdict in the Saudi capital on Monday. Three senior figures, including the de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s former top adviser, Saud al-Qahtani, were cleared of wrongdoing during the trial. The verdict contradicts the conclusion of the CIA and other western intelligence agencies that Prince Mohammed directly ordered Khashoggi’s assassination, an allegation the kingdom has strenuously denied. Qahtani was found to have no proven involvement in the killing, after he was investigated and released without charge. He has, however, been sanctioned by the US for his alleged role in the operation.
The US has decided to stop sending bomb-sniffing dogs to two Middle Eastern countries after many of the animals died – The US has made the decision to temporarily stop sending explosive-detection dogs to Jordan and Egypt after discovering that a lot of the animals had died as a result of poor treatment, a report from the Department of State’s Office of the Inspector General revealed. The department watchdog, which had previously pushed the Department of State to stop sending dogs to these countries after an earlier investigation uncovered a number of animal deaths and other serious problems, wrote that it had “received notice of additional canine deaths that warrant immediate department action.” The report released Friday said that two dogs sent to Jordan died in June and September of this year of “non-natural causes.” Specifically, one died from hyperthermia (heatstroke), and the other died after being poisoned by insecticide that was sprayed in or near the kennel. Another dog was found in October to be suffering from leishmaniasis, a preventable disease transmitted by sand flies. The Office of the Inspector General also found that three of the ten dogs provided to Egypt, which has been uncooperative with department officials, died from lung cancer, a ruptured gall bladder, and hyperthermia. The latest report follows an IG evaluation released in September that examined the state of the program in Jordan, a US ally in the counter-terrorism fight. That report, which characterized the conditions the animals were living in as “disturbing,” found that “at least 10 canines had died from various medical problems from 2008 through 2016 while others were living in unhealthy conditions.”
US Confirms Report Citing Iran Officials as Saying 1,500 Killed in Protests | Voice of America – – The United States has confirmed a news report citing unnamed Iranian officials as saying about 1,500 people were killed in a crackdown by security forces on anti-government protests last month. In a report published Monday, London-based Reuters said it obtained the death toll from three Iranian interior ministry officials who said the fatalities included “at least 17 teenagers and about 400 women as well as some members of the security forces and police.” In a Monday tweet, the State Department quoted U.S. Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook as saying the Reuters report “underscores the urgency for the international community to punish the perpetrators and isolate the regime for the murder of 1,500 Iranian citizens.” Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook: “The@Reuters report on the massacre ordered by@khamenei_ir underscores the urgency for the international community to punish the perpetrators and isolate the regime for the murder of 1,500 Iranian citizens.” https://t.co/TpUncLjDcv – Department of State (@StateDept) December 23, 2019 Reuters’ death toll was much higher than the latest fatalities reported by British rights group Amnesty International, which said in a Dec. 16 statement that it documented the killings of at least 304 demonstrators by Iranian security forces in days of unrest that erupted on Nov. 15. Hook’s reference to the “murder of 1,500 Iranian citizens” also marked a substantial increase in the Trump administration’s assessment of the number of people killed in Iran’s crackdown. In a Dec. 5 briefing to reporters, Hook said it appeared that the Iranian government “could have murdered over a thousand Iranian citizens since the protests began.”
Thousands protest in Iraq as deadline for new PM looms Thousands of protesters blocked roads and public buildings in southern Iraq Sunday, as the latest deadline for choosing a new prime minister loomed. Anti-government rallies have rocked Baghdad and the Shiite-majority south since October 1, with demonstrators calling for a complete overhaul of a regime they deem corrupt and inefficient. “The revolution continues!” shouted one demonstrator at a protest encampment in central Diwaniyah. Protesters blocked off public buildings one by one in the southern Iraqi city, and put up banners reading “The country is under construction — please excuse the disruption”. Overnight, protesters in Diwaniyah and Basra, another southern city, had declared a “general strike”. Sunday marks the latest deadline — already pushed back twice by President Barham Saleh — for parliament to choose a new premier to replace Adel Abdel Mahdi, who tendered his administration’s resignation last month. Officials say neighbour Iran, a key player in Iraqi politics, wants to install Qusay al-Suhail, who served as education minister in the government of Abdel Mahdi. But protesters categorically reject his candidacy, along with anyone from the wider political establishment that has been in place since dictator Saddam Hussein was deposed in 2003. The protest movement has lost momentum in recent weeks as it has been hit by intimidation, including assassinations perpetrated by militias, according to the UN. Around 460 people have been killed since the protests began nearly three months ago, and some 25,000 have been wounded. But the movement appeared to regain some confidence on Sunday. Dozens of protesters blocked roads linking southern cities to Baghdad with burning tyres, an AFP correspondent said. In Karbala and Najaf, two Shiite holy cities, striking students closed schools and gathered in their thousands, AFP correspondents said.In Nasiriyah, protesters blocked bridges and several roads while all public buildings remained closed. Protesters are demanding the fall of Saleh and parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbussi, accusing them of procrastinating.
Canada Follows US Lead By Ignoring OPCW Scandal – Among the basic principles of reporting, as taught in every journalism school, are: Constantly strive for the truth; Give voice to all sides of a story; When new information comes to light about a story you reported, a correction must be issued or a follow-up produced.But the Canadian media has ignored explosives revelations from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. It’s a stark example of their complicity with belligerent Canadian foreign policy in Syria.In May 2019 a member of the OPCW Fact Finding Mission in Syria, Ian Henderson, released a document claiming the management of the organization misled the public about the purported chemical attack in Douma in April 2018. It showed that the organization suppressed an assessment that contradicted the claim that a gas cylinder fell from the air. In November another OPCW whistleblower added to the Henderson revelations, saying that his conclusion that the incident was “a non chemical-related event” was twisted to imply the opposite. Last week WikiLeaks released a series of internal documents demonstrating that the team who wrote the OPCW’s report on Douma didn’t go to Syria. One memo noted that 20 OPCW inspectors felt the report released “did not reflect the views of the team members that deployed to [Syria].” I couldn’t find a single report about the whistleblowers/leaks in any major Canadian media outlet. They also ignored explicit suppression of the leaks. There is an important Canadian angle to this story. Twenty-four hours after the alleged April 7, 2018, chemical attack foreign affairs minister Chrystia Freeland put out a statement claiming, “it is clear to Canada that chemical weapons were used and that they were used by the Assad regime.” Five days later Prime Minister Justin Trudeau supported cruise missile strikes on a Syrian military base stating, “Canada supports the decision by the United States, the United Kingdom, and France to take action to degrade the Assad regime’s ability to launch chemical weapons attacks against its own people.” Canadian officials have pushed for the organization to blame Bashar al-Assad’s government for chemical attacks since Syria joined the OPCW and had its declared chemical weapon stockpile destroyed in 2013 – 14. Canada’s special envoy to the OPCW, Sabine Nolke, has repeatedly accused Assad’s forces of employing chemical weapons. Instead of expressing concern over political manipulation of evidence, Nolke criticized the leak. In a statement after Henderson’s position was made public she noted, “Canada remains steadfast in its confidence in the professionalism and integrity of the FFM [Fact-Finding Mission] and its methods. However, Mr. Chair, we are unsettled with the leak of official confidential documents from the Technical Secretariat.”
Trump warns Syria, Russia, Iran not to kill civilians in Idlib province – President Trump on Thursday urged Russia, Syria and Iran not to kill civilians in Syria’s Idlib province and said Turkey is “working hard” to stop “carnage” there. “Russia, Syria, and Iran are killing, or on their way to killing, thousands of innocent civilians in Idlib Province,” Trump, who is currently at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Fla., tweeted. “Don’t do it! Turkey is working hard to stop this carnage.” In recent weeks, Syrian and Russian forces have stepped up air strikes against targets in Idlib province, the last major rebel-held area in the region. A Syrian relief group called the Syrian Response Coordination Group said this week that over 200,000 civilians had fled their homes in northwest Syria amid a bombardment from Syrian government forces there, according to The Associated Press, with many of them fleeing to the Turkish border. The group said that more than 250 civilians have been killed as a result of the air and ground operations conducted by Syria and its Russian and Iranian allies. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned earlier this week that Turkey could not handle the new wave of refugees coming from Syria. “If the violence towards the people of Idlib does not stop, this number will increase even more. In that case, Turkey will not carry such a migrant burden on its own,” Erdoğan said. Trump sent the tweet Thursday morning amid complaints about his impeachment; shortly later, he departed for Trump International Golf Club.
Tens of thousands flee Syria’s Idlib as deadly bombings intensify – Tens of thousands of civilians have fled Syria’s Idlib province to the Turkish border, after an increase in bombings by Russia-backed government forces, creating a new humanitarian challenge as the winter season arrives. United Nations observers said on Friday that at least 18,000 people have been displaced in Idlib in just 24 hours, as the deadly bombardments continue. On Friday morning, at least seven more people were reported killed, after at least 19 civilians were killed on Thursday. In the last five days, at least 80,000 Syrians have already fled near Turkey’s border, according to reports quoting Syria’s Response Coordination Group. Thousands flee as Assad prepares to recapture Idlib (2:35) There are already about one million Syrian refugees living near the border with Turkey. In September 2018, Turkey and Russia had agreed to turn Idlib into a de-escalation zone. Since then, more than 1,300 civilians have been killed in attacks by the Syrian government forces in the de-escalation zone, according to reports. Al Jazeera’s Mohammed Adow, reporting from Istanbul, said the Russian-backed Syrian government bombings include air raids, shelling and barrel bomb attacks in the town of Maarat el-Numan in southern Idlib. Syrians living in the area said the attacks were indiscriminate with hospitals, markets and homes targeted. On Friday, public anger against the offensive spilled onto the streets, with hundreds of people in Idlib taking to the streets to denounce what they called the neglect of their plight by the International community. They also called for a swift halt to the bombardment. Witnesses also said that evacuees were targeted as they tried to flee their homes.
80,000 Syrian migrants marching to Turkey, says Erdoğan – More than 80,000 migrants from Syria’s Idlib have started to migrate toward the Turkish border, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Dec. 22. “In such a case, Turkey will not bear all alone the burden of this migration,” Erdoğan said, speaking at an event in Dolmabahçe0 Palace in Istanbul. Erdoğan said that Turkey along with Russia is making all-out efforts to end the attacks in Idlib. In this regard, he said, Ankara will send a delegation for discussions to Moscow on Dec. 23. “We will determine the steps we will take according to the results,” he added. In September 2018, Turkey and Russia agreed to turn Idlib into a de-escalation zone in which acts of aggression are expressly prohibited. Since then, more than 1,300 civilians have been killed in attacks by the regime and Russian forces in the de-escalation zone as the cease-fire continues to be violated. If aggression by the regime and its allies continues, Turkey and the Europe face the risk of another refugee influx. Over a million Syrians have moved near the Turkish border following intense attacks. Since the eruption of the bloody civil war in Syria in 2011, Turkey has taken in over 3.6 million Syrians who fled their country, making Turkey the world’s top refugee-hosting country.
Turkey Can’t Handle New Refugee Explosion & Greece Will Be First To Feel Impact- Erdogan -At a moment Erdogan has his hands dirty in Syria and is preparing to get more militarily involved in Libya, Turkey’s president has yet again threatened Europe with a refugee horde so large no country will be able to handle it. He’s now specifically threatened Greece as being among the first to bear the brunt of the first waves of refugees unleashed by Turkey.His threats are now centering on the major uptick in airstrikes by Russia and Syria on Idlib province, said to number in the “hundreds” since a new operation began on Dec.16. Since then, tens of thousands of civilians living under al-Qaeda’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have reportedly fled. “Turkey cannot handle a fresh wave of migrants from Syria, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday, warning that European countries will feel the impact of such an influx if violence in Syria’s northwest is not stopped,” Reuters reports. Common estimates now put the number of Syrian refugees hosted on Turkish soil at 3.7 million, with another 3 million inside war-torn Idlib province, which means the refugee crisis is set to explode dramatically higher in terms of numbers – a likely scenario given Damascus has vowed to return “every inch” of Idlib and all Syrian territory to its control.Thus far thousands have fled into neighboring Turkey, but there’s been on the ground reports suggesting HTS militants are blocking the bulk of refugees from leaving, perhaps using them as ‘human shields’ amid the Russian-Syrian onslaught.During a public speech in Istanbul on Sunday night, Erdogan claimed over 80,000 people were currently fleeing Idlib for the safety of Turkey, and repeated his urgent appeal for Europe to give additional support. “If the violence toward the people of Idlib does not stop, this number will increase even more. In that case, Turkey will not carry such a migrant burden on its own,” Erdogan said. And he named Greece while invoking the peak of the migrant crisis in 2015, promising a “repeat” if nothing is done:“The negative impact of the pressure we will be subjected to will be something that all European nations, especially Greece, will also feel,” he said, adding that a repeat of the 2015 migrant crisis would become inevitable.“We call on European countries to use their energy to stop the massacre in Idlib, rather than trying to corner Turkey for the legitimate steps it took in Syria,” Erdogan said, referencing the Turkish army’s own ongoing ‘Operation Peace Spring’ against US-backed Syrian Kurds.Erdogan further called the some $3 billion in support offered by the United Nations refugee agency last w eek “not enough”.
Erdogan vows to send Turkish troops into Libya – President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Thursday that Ankara will deploy Turkish troops to Libya, claiming that the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) has requested military support. The dispatch of Turkish military units to the war-torn north African country threatens to exacerbate an increasingly complex and escalating tensions between Ankara, Moscow and Washington. The GNA, headed by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, is under siege by General Khalifa Haftar’s so-called Libyan National Army, which is linked to a rival government based in the eastern Libyan port city of Tobruk. Turkey and the GNA signed agreements last month covering military assistance and a delineation of maritime boundaries that the Erdogan government is invoking to lay exclusive claim to vast gas and oil reserves under the eastern Mediterranean. “Since there is an invitation [from Libya] right now, we will accept it,” Erdogan said at a meeting of his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). “Based on our memorandum of understanding on the security and military cooperation, we will submit a motion for the deployment of the troops to parliament as the first item after it re-opens.” The “invitation” from Libya had yet to be made public as Erdogan promised that the Turkish troop deployment would be approved by the time the Turkish parliament returns on January 8. The plan to send Turkish troops into Libya threatens to escalate a conflict that has far-reaching implications. While the GNA is recognized as Libya’s “legitimate” government by the United Nations, it controls little territory outside of the capital of Tripoli, which is now under siege. It is dependent upon a collection of Islamist and regional militias for its defense. Haftar, a former general under the Libyan government of Muammar Gaddafi, who defected to the US and became a longtime “asset” of the Central Intelligence Agency, has the backing of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and France. And, while Washington is formally backing the GNA, US President Donald Trump praised Haftar last April for his “significant role in fighting terrorism and securing Libya’s oil resources.”
Former IDF intelligence personnel likely tied to UAE spy app, report says – Times of Israel – Former Israeli military intelligence personnel are likely tied to an Emirati messaging app that was secretly spying on its users in a mass surveillance campaign, according to a Sunday report. The United Arab Emirates government uses the ToTok service to monitor users’ location, conversations, relationships and other information, the New York Times reported, citing its own investigation into the app and American officials with knowledge of a classified US intelligence report.ToTok has been downloaded by millions of users through the Apple and Google app stores since it debuted several months ago. Most users are in the UAE, but it has been downloaded by people worldwide, and this month was one of the top social apps in the US, according to the App Annie research firm. The app, which is separate from, but apparently named after the popular Chinese TikTok app, also ranked highly in Saudi Arabia, the UK, India and Sweden.State-backed publications started advertising ToTok in the UAE in recent months as a “free, fast and secure” messaging tool, in a country where many messaging apps are restricted by the government.Both Google and Apple have removed the app from their stores, but users who have downloaded it already are still able to use it. It is the latest in a string of digital weapons that wealthy governments have developed to spy on their adversaries and citizens.
Israel set to be investigated for war crimes in Palestinian Territories, ICC announces – A full investigation into alleged war crimes in the Palestinian Territories is to be launched by the International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor, prompting a fierce backlash from Israel. Fatou Bensouda said the probe could result in charges against both Israelis and Palestinians. “I am satisfied that … war crimes have been or are being committed in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip,” she said in a statement on Friday. Bensouda added that because the Palestinian Territories had requested the intervention of the court she did not need to request approval from judges to start an investigation. However, she has asked the ICC’s pre-trial chamber to rule on what geographical location it can investigate. The probe will be launched pending a decision on geographical jurisdiction. Furious, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu lashed back, claiming the “court has no jurisdiction”. Israel is not a member of the court. “This is a dark day for truth and justice. It is a baseless and outrageous decision,” he said.
Netanyahu calls ICC war crimes probe anti-Semitic – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Sunday that efforts by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate alleged war crimes committed by Israeli forces in Palestinian-controlled areas were rooted in anti-Semitism. Reuters reported that the Israeli leader made the accusation at a Hannukah ceremony in Jerusalem in front of the Western Wall, a holy site for Judaism, and claimed that the ICC was opposing the right of Israel to exist as a Jewish state. “New edicts are being cast against the Jewish people – anti-Semitic edicts by the International Criminal Court telling us that we, the Jews standing here next to this wall … in this city, in this country, have no right to live here and that by doing so, we are committing a war crime,” he said, according to the news service. “Pure anti-Semitism,” he added of the ICC’s efforts. His remark comes a day after the ICC’s chief prosecutor announced that she wished to open a war crimes investigation into Israeli actions taken in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and east Jerusalem. The investigation stems from a case brought to the body by Palestinian officials in 2015. “[T]here are no substantial reasons to believe that an investigation would not serve the interests of justice,” Fatou Bensouda said Saturday, according to the BBC. Netanyahu, an ally of President Trump, is facing charges of corruption from Israeli law enforcement officials and is currently seeking re-election after a previous election ended with no clear victor earlier this year.
Islamic State Films Gruesome Beheadings In Message To Christians All Over The World — The Islamic State has released a video which purportedly shows the brutal execution of 11 blindfolded Christians in Nigeria, the day after Christmas, in revenge for the killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and IS spokesman Abdul-Hasan al-Muhajir, accordign to Ahmad Salkida – a journalist who was first sent the video. “This is a message to Christians all over the world,” says a masked man from the Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP), in the 56-second clip released the Amaq news agency, a platform for Islamic State propaganda. “We killed them as revenge for the killing of our leaders, including Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and [IS spokesman] Abul-Hasan al-Muhajir.” The footage, filmed in an unidentified outdoor area, shows one captive who is shot dead while the other 10 are pushed to the ground and beheaded, according to the BBC. Here is a clip of the video which cuts off before the reported executions. GRAPHIC CLIP: 11 Nigerian male Christians including soldiers, Aid workers & civilians abducted by Islamic State Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiyah #ISWAP were on Christmas day Beheaded excluding one who was shot execution style. N.B (Edited Video only posted for research, Intel purposes) pic.twitter.com/UU8i9n7lxW – Edward (@DonKlericuzio) December 26, 2019 ISWAP, which severed ties with insurgent group Boko Haram and pledged allegiance to Baghdadi in 2016, has intensified its attacks on Christians, security personnel and aid staff in recent months – incuding the use of checkpoints to stop and search travelers. On Tuesday, the United Nations condemned the “increasing practice by armed groups to set up checkpoints targeting civilians” in Nigeria’s northeast region amid the increase in targeted violence. On Sunday, the jihadists killed six people and abducted five others including two aid workers when they intercepted vehicles on a highway on the outskirts of Maiduguri, the Borno state capital. In a similar attack on December 5, ISWAP fighters disguised as Nigerian soldiers stopped and searched vehicles at a checkpoint near Maiduguri. The group claimed in a statement that six soldiers and eight civilians, including two Red Cross workers, were among those abducted in that attack. Last week the group released a video showing 11 alleged hostages. – MSN
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