Oil, Gas, And Fracking News Reads: 08December 2019 – Part 2

Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

Here are some more selected news articles about the oil and gas industry from the week ended 07 December 2019. Go here for Part 1.

This is a feature at Global Economic Intersection every Monday evening.

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About five thousand tons of crude oil collected along Brazils coast -About 5,000 tons of oil were collected off the coast of Brazil, since the first oil slicks appeared on August 30, the Navy reported. Quoted today by the G1 news website, the report indicates that this figure was communicated by the Monitoring and Evaluation Group (GAA), formed by the Navy, the National Petroleum Agency and the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA).’In this monitoring phase we verified a stabilization of the situation,’ said squadron Admiral Marcelo Francisco Campos, who coordinates the group.The monitoring of the affected areas shows that, in the last week, 99 percent of the efforts correspond to traces of oil on polluted beaches (in the northeast and the Espiritu Santo state in the southeast). In Rio de Janiero, 320 grams of the material were discovered. According to a press release published by the group, since the first signs of the oil spill were noted, 803 locations have been affected. Even so, according to the agency, there have been no oil spills at sea for 19 days. The first slicks appeared on August 30, on the beaches of Paraiba. The clean-up efforts are supported by 10,000 military personnel from the Navy, the Army and the Air Force, as well as 5,000 IBAMA, Chico Mendes Institute, Civil Defense and Petrobras employees.

Brazil mulls fund to combat oil leaks – Brazilian lawmakers are mulling the idea of creating a fund to combat the effect of oil spills on the coast. The debate comes as a lower house commission (CPI) was meeting to investigate the source of an oil spill that has been affecting scores of beaches in the northeast and southeast regions since August, in what is considered the country’s biggest offshore disaster to date. The CPI was set up last month to identify the origin of the spillage and propose measures to prevent new leaks. The navy has been investigating the origin of the spill for months but has yet to reach a conclusion. Molecular analyses concluded the oil was from Venezuela. “The Brazilian parliament has the responsibility to be at the center of this debate and build a more efficient state not only for the investigation and prevention of natural disasters but also more efficient in damage mitigation,” congressman João Campos, who requested the creation of the CPI, recently argued. Oil institute IBP, which is giving technical support to the government and started studies to identify the origin of the oil, believes the country is learning from the accident and information from the case could be used to create good response practices to emergencies. Specialists, however, say creating a fund with resources from producing companies to deal with spills in the future would not be the best solution since the operators currently working in Brazil already follow best practices and are unlikely to cause similar incidents. Anderson Dutra, an associate member at consultancy KPMG, argues that such a fund could cause legal disputes, as firms that will not contribute could be the ones needing to use it. He said that in order for it to work it would be necessary to impose a tax on the entire sector, which would also be complicated.

Oil spill on Taranaki beach is under investigation – An investigation is under way in to an oil spill on one of Taranaki’s most popular beaches. The Taranaki Regional Council is investigating the spill on Oakura Beach. It is looking to find the source of oil that has washed up at the beach’s southern end, Fred McLay, TRC director of resource management, said in a press release issued on Wednesday. A member of the public had made a complaint, McLay said.The council is also cleaning up a small amount of oil that has been found and checking other locations, he said. “Contaminated sand is being manually removed from the beach for appropriate disposal at a licensed facility. Staff from the Taranaki Regional Council clean up small amounts of oil which have washed up on the south end of Oakura Beach. On Wednesday afternoon, several TRC staff were near the Ahu Ahu Rd end area of the beach, looking for small pieces of sand contaminated by oil drops. Most patches were very small, about the size of seaweed marbles. The workers had shovels and were scooping the contaminated sand and some seaweed into black plastic bags.It is the second oil spill in the region in as many weeks.

Cause of Oakura Beach oil spill remains unknown – The oil spill that left contaminated sand on Oakura Beach, Taranaki, remains under investigation.In a statement issued on Thursday morning, Taranaki Regional Council director of resource management Fred McLay said officers had removed what contaminated sand they have found, and were continuing to check if there is more.”Given the evidently small scale of the event, there is unlikely to be a health risk to the public.” Most patches of oil were quite small. On Wednesday TRC staff were collecting pieces of contaminated sand and removing them from the beach. Most patches were quite small, about the size of seaweed marbles – some slightly larger.

Pirates Board Oil Supertanker, Kidnap 19 Crew Members— Pirates boarded a fully loaded supertanker off the coast of Nigeria, an act that is sure to ring alarm bells for insurers about the risk of collecting oil from Africa’s biggest producer. Nineteen crew were kidnapped and remain missing, a spokeswoman for Navios, the ship’s owner said by phone Wednesday. The incident happened late Tuesday about 77 nautical miles from Bonny Island, a key loading point for Nigerian crude. The vessel had only recently collected its cargo. The waters of the Gulf of Guinea have suffered from sporadic incidents of piracy for a few years, but an attack on a supertanker is a rare event. Nigeria suffered a spate of militancy that crippled its oil industry in 2016, but it rarely strayed into shipping. Out of 95 attacks worldwide where hijackers boarded the vessel in the first nine months of 2019, 17 took place in Nigerian waters, according to data from the International Maritime Bureau, a piracy watchdog. As a region, the Gulf of Guinea accounts for for almost 82% of the crew kidnappings globally. The crew that didn’t get kidnapped were able to sail the vessel to a safe location, the Navios spokeswoman said, adding that the company’s priority is the safe return of those who are missing. The vessel, the Nave Constellation, can carry 2 million barrels of oil. It was full when it was hijacked and there was no damage.

Thai ship sinks, oil spill spreads over Vietnam coast – An oil spill covered over three km of Ha Tinh’s coast after a Thai ship sank near the Son Duong port last Saturday. Local authorities are cooperating with the Central Committee for Natural Disaster Management, and the Vietnam National Committee for Search and Rescue to contain the spill. They have dispatched personnel to the scene to try and prevent the environmental disaster from getting worse. Pool floats have been set up around the shipwreck area and pumps used to move the remaining fuel in the sunken ship out onto barges. Ha Tinh Province marine forces and the ship owner have also joined forces to make sure maritime traffic and local trading at ports go on smoothly. Local fishermen and farmers have been advised not to use seawater at this time. The operations are expected to end on December 15. Nordana Sophie HSCP2, a cargo ship, departed from Hong Kong to Son Duong Port in central Vietnam with 18 Thai crew members. As it neared the port early morning of November 28, the crew discovered that seawater had leaked into the ship through a hole in the hull. The ship sank soon afterwards. Ha Tinh authorities deployed rescue boats and personnel after hearing about the incident. At noon, all 18 crew members were safely brought ashore.

India’s diesel demand growth seen stuck in low gear until mid-2020 – (Reuters) – India’s demand for diesel will remain subdued until the second half of 2020, when analysts expect various policy measures aimed at stimulating industrial activity to kick in and soak up excess fuel. Until consumption picks up in Asia’s third-largest economy, where economic growth has slowed to six-year lows, refiners are likely to extend their recent stretch of rare diesel exports, which have weighed on refining margins in the region. Diesel accounts for about two-fifths of refined fuel demand in India, which has grown by its slowest pace since fiscal year 2014 this year amid tight credit markets, contracting auto sales and slowing rail and air traffic. Diesel exports could climb by up to 8 million tonnes in the 2019-20 fiscal year from the 28 million tonnes shipped the year before, said an executive at a state refiner who could not be named due to company policy.Ship-tracking data compiled by Refinitiv show India’s diesel exports since the fiscal year start in April have jumped 8.9% from the same period in 2018 to 17.7 million tonnes, the highest for that time span since at least 2015. India consumed 83.5 million tonnes of diesel in the 2018/19 fiscal year, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas data show, which was a record and 3% above the prior year’s total. But demand growth in 2019/20 could be “flat or 1%”, according to K. Ravichandran, group head for corporate sector ratings at ICRA Ltd, a local of arm of Moody’s.

Asian refiners strive to finish IMO preparations in hunt for profits – (Reuters) – At SK Energy’s largest refinery in South Korea, engineers are rushing to complete a new processing unit ahead of schedule as the firm looks to boost sales of low-emission fuels before new marine fuel standards take effect in just one month. In Japan, the country’s second-biggest refiner Idemitsu Kosan Co is taking a more cautious stance, increasing capacity for low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO), but also relying on blending to produce IMO2020 compliant bunker fuel. The different approaches come as refiners across the world grapple with the shipping industry’s most drastic fuel transition since it moved from burning coal to oil early last century. New International Maritime Organization (IMO) rules from Jan. 1, 2020 prohibit ships from using fuels containing more than 0.5% sulphur, compared with 3.5% now, unless they are equipped with exhaust-cleaning “scrubbers”. The changes affect demand from 50,000 merchant ships consuming about 4 million barrels of marine fuel a day. When completed in January, three months earlier than planned, SK Energy’s 40,000 barrels-per-day vacuum reside desulphurisation (VRDS) will be its first plant solely devoted to producing compliant LSFO. “We conservatively expect (the new unit) to create 200 billion won ($170 million) worth of profits annually depending on market conditions,” Lee Duk-hwan, project leader of SK Energy’s optimization operation office, told reporters during a site visit last week. “If market conditions are favourable we see 300 billion won worth of profits,” Lee said. The unit will start commercial operations in March after making fuels on a trial-basis. The refiner has so far relied on its trading arm to create useable blends from a mix of produced and purchased fuels and oil. With shipping companies delaying fuel orders until the last minute, global refiners do not have clear indications of what fuels will be most in demand. Refiners also have not been able to guarantee the quality and compatibility of fuels they supply, the Chamber of Shipping of America said last week.

Asian oil refiners’ shipping fuel profits grow on IMO 2020 demand – (Reuters) – Asia’s oil refiners are starting to see a surge in demand for cleaner fuels that is pushing up processing profits for very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and gasoil just weeks before new rules take effect for fuel products burned in ships. Most ships have to switch from high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) to cleaner fuels such as VLSFO and marine gasoil (MGO) when new sulphur emissions rules set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), known as IMO 2020, start on Jan. 1. Ships will have to use fuels containing not more than 0.5% sulphur, compared with 3.5% now, unless they are equipped with exhaust-cleaning “scrubbers”. The oil industry stocked up on IMO-compliant fuel, expecting high demand and a big boost in profits ahead of the rules taking effect, but ship owners kept their purchases to a minimum until this month, delaying a run-up in demand that refiners had expected earlier in the fourth quarter.

China to launch new state oil and gas pipeline group next week: notice – (Reuters) – China plans to launch its long-awaited national oil and gas pipeline company on Monday, part of a sector-wide reform aimed at providing fair market access to infrastructure and boost investment in oil and gas production. Most of the country’s pipeline infrastructure is controlled by energy giant PetroChina, CNPC’s listed arm, and small, non state-owned oil and gas producers and distributors often don’t have access to the pipelines at competitive rates, analysts have said. This also hinders companies from investing in oil and gas exploration as they are concerned about access to the pipelines. Beijing started considering reforming the sector nearly a decade ago to improve access but only approved the plans early this year, spurred by a national campaign to boost consumption of the cleaner burning natural gas and curb dirtier coal.

Oil Tankers Idling Off China Possess Key to Shipping Rates— The fate of at least 15 oil tankers idling off the coast of China holds the key to determining the path of global freight rates. The vessels are owned by a unit of Chinese shipping giant COSCO that was sanctioned by the U.S. in late September for carrying Iranian oil. They’ve been floating off the coast for over a month, ship-tracking data show, in limbo as owners, charterers and potential customers await clarity over the sanctions. For as long as they’re stuck there, effectively removed from the market, global freight rates are likely to remain supported. The impact of the sanctions was magnified by the fact that many customers avoided booking any COSCO vessels due to confusion over whether they would run afoul of the U.S. In the weeks after the penalties were announced, shipping fees spiked and, while they’ve since retreated, they’re still well above where they were. Some clarity could come on Dec. 20, a U.S.-imposed deadline for charterers and business partners of the companies to wind down their activities. COSCO’s lawyers have been in discussions with American authorities regarding potential sanctions relief, while the Chinese government has also reportedly asked the White House to lift the penalties as part of trade-deal negotiations. “The ships are likely waiting for more sanction clarity after Dec. 20,” said Michal Meidan, director of the China Energy Program at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. This could take a while and unless COSCO Shipping can clearly explain its ownership structure to the market and insulate itself from the sanctioned units, these vessels, as well as some of the company’s other ships, may remain offline for a few more months, she said. It’s unclear if any of the 15 or so vessels, owned by COSCO Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co., have been transferred to other COSCO units. Nobody at COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., the Dalian unit’s parent, or China COSCO Shipping Corp. answered phones or responded to emails seeking comment.The Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index, a gauge of the costs of shipping crude and fuel oil, surged 130% to an 11-year high on Oct. 14. It’s still 48% higher than just before the penalties. The higher costs have also flowed through to vessels carrying fuels such as gasoline and diesel, with the Baltic Exchange Clean Tanker Index also at elevated levels.

Russia opens Siberian pipeline to China as Beijing expands its influence in the Arctic – A new natural gas pipeline connecting Russia and China is the latest example of increasing collaboration between Moscow and Beijing in the Arctic Circle. The pipeline comes after China unveiled a plan nearly two years ago called the “Polar Silk Road,” expanding its campaign for influence to the Arctic. While Beijing has branded itself as a “near-Arctic state,” that far-stretched claim on the region is dependent on its partnership with Russia. In a $400 billion deal signed in 2014, the 3,000 km long “Power of Siberia” pipeline stretches from Russia’s Siberian fields to China’s historically coal-burning northeast. ″(The pipeline) diversifies import supplies for China. It will be very competitive gas at the border and I think gradually improves gas penetration for the northeast part of China,” said Scott Darling, head of Asia Pacific commodities research at J.P. Morgan. That region is an attractive market for Russia, as it “has low affordability for high-priced gas” compared with regions farther south which already have “well-established gas markets” with a diverse supply mix, IHS Markit said in a Monday report. “New exports to this rapidly growing gas market is a growth strategy for the company,” but the European market will still remain a “top priority,” IHS said. Reuters reported that Russia’s Gazprom expects the LNG pipeline to initially supply 4.6 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas in 2020 before ramping up to its full capacity of 38 bcm by 2025.

Putin and Xi oversee launch of landmark Russian gas pipeline to China – (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Monday oversaw the launch of a landmark pipeline that will transport natural gas from Siberia to northeast China, an economic and political boost to ties between Moscow and Beijing. The start of gas flows via the Power of Siberia pipeline reflects Moscow’s attempts to pivot to the East to try to mitigate pain from Western financial sanctions imposed over its 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea. The move cements China’s spot as Russia’s top export market and gives Russia a potentially enormous new market outside Europe. It also comes as Moscow is hoping to launch two other major energy projects – the Nord Steam 2 undersea Baltic gas pipeline to Germany and the TurkStream pipeline to Turkey and southern Europe. The 3,000-km-long (1,865 mile) Power of Siberia pipeline will transport gas from the Chayandinskoye and Kovytka fields in eastern Siberia, a project expected to last for three decades and to generate $400 billion for Russian state coffers. “This is a genuinely historical event not only for the global energy market but above all for us, for Russia and China,” said Putin, who watched the launch via video link from the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi. “This step takes Russo-Chinese strategic cooperation in energy to a qualitative new level and brings us closer to (fulfilling) the task, set together with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, of taking bilateral trade to $200 billion by 2024.” The new pipeline emerges in Heilongjiang, which borders Russia, and goes onto Jilin and Liaoning, China’s top grain hub. Xi told Putin via a video link on Monday that the newly launched gas pipeline is “a landmark project of bilateral energy cooperation” and an “example of deep integration and mutually beneficial cooperation”.

Why Did Oil Prices Plunge This Black Friday? – It was a pretty big drop, nearly 5 percent for the day for both West Texas and Brent crude, with the latter now just above $60 per barrel. The big headline is the resignation of Iraqi prime minister Adil Abdul Mahdi. The immediate trigger of that was that it was demanded by Iraq’s most influential cleric, Ali Sistani. This came after weeks of mounting protests in Iraq against the government, both in Baghdad, but also among Shia in the South, with Sistani a Shia cleric. He is based in Najaf, the Shia holy city where Imam Ali is buried, the son-in-law of the Prrophet Muhammed. Protestors had just torched an Iranian consulate there. The supposed reason this might justify a fall in oil prices is that it is thought that the protests have reduced exports from Iraq, which is currently the second largest oil exporter in OPEC. I do not know if that will result, but if indeed this leads to Iraqi oil exports rising, then indeed a price drop is justified. While less headline-generating but arguably more important are rumors regarding a major OPEC meeting in Vienna next week. Supposedly the Saudis have gotten tired of cutting oil production to offset increases by other OPEC members. This may not help out the ARAMCO IPO going on, with falling oil prices resulting. But that would certainly portend a reasonable basis for them to fall. On top of that there are also reports that non-OPEC member Russia is now withdrawing from agreements over the last three years, largely with the Saudis, to restrain their production, especially of condensates. This too would reasonably push oil prices down. There are also reports of snags in US-China trade talks, a less important item that might reveese tomorrow, but one that makes all the markets nervous, and indeed stock markets were down today also. So, while “Black Friday” in the US means businesses supposedly coming out of negative red territory on their profit accounts, in the the oil patch it looks more like something unwanted, black indeed.

Oil jumps on Chinese factory growth, hopes for deeper OPEC cuts – Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday as signs of rising manufacturing activity in China pointed to increasing fuel demand, and hints that OPEC may deepen output cuts at its meeting this week indicated supply may tighten next year. Brent crude futures rose 76 cents, or 1.3%, to $61.25 a barrel by 0415 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 91 cents, or 1.7%, to $56.08 a barrel, having risen by more than $1 earlier. On Friday, WTI futures settled 5.1% lower while Brent plunged 4.4% on concerns that talks to end the trade war between the United States and China, the world’s two biggest oil users, would be disrupted by U.S. support for protesters in Hong Kong. But oil rose on Monday after factory activity in November in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, increased for the first time in seven months because of rising domestic demand amid government stimulus measures. “At the open, prices remain supported by the surprising resilient China factory activity with the forward-looking PMI’s beating expectations,” said Stephen Innes, chief Asia market strategist at AxiTrader. Prices were also supported after Iraq’s oil minister said on Sunday that OPEC and allied producers will consider deepening their existing oil output cuts by about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.6 million bpd. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, are expected to at least extend existing output cuts to June 2020 when they meet this week. The OPEC+ group has coordinated output for three years to balance the market and support prices. Their current deal to cut supply by 1.2 million bpd that started from January expires at the end of March 2020. OPEC’s ministers will meet in Vienna on Dec. 5 and the wider OPEC+ group will meet on Dec. 6.

Oil Markets Remain Hopeful Of OPEC Cuts – Broader financial markets saw some downward pressure on concerns of new trade conflicts, but oil markets are holding out some hope for deeper OPEC cuts. JP Morgan said that the group may increase the reductions from 1.2 to 1.5 mb/d. The rumor mill says that OPEC+ may look at a deeper production cut in the neighborhood of 400,000 bpd, but with so many obstacles standing in the way, the odds still seem remote. Most analysts see an extension as the most likely outcome. The world is on track for 3 to 5 degrees Celsius warming by the end of the century, a faster pace than previously thought, according to the World Meteorologic Organization. Saudi Aramco attracted bids worth around $44.3 billion as of last Friday, putting it on track for a $1.6 to $1.7 trillion valuation. Most of the subscriptions come from Saudi investors, while major international investors have largely stayed away. The “Power of Siberia” pipeline is set to open on Tuesday, a long-distance, 3,000-km natural gas pipeline connecting Russia and China. The project was initially inked back in 2014, and the contract lasts for 30 years. The pipeline could knock out coal demand, as well as LNG imports, in China. Global coal consumption is set to fall this year, but China also has plans to build 121 GW of new coal-fired power plants and also open new mines, hurting global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Iran said that 200,000 people took part in protests last week, arguably one of the biggest anti-government protests in decades. The protests were initially sparked by a hike in fuel prices, which itself was a symptom of the weakening economy, largely because of U.S. sanctions. The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran is in a deeper financial crisis than most analysts previously thought. Iraqi security forces reportedly killed at least 45 people on Thursday, after protesters burned an Iranian consulate. It was one of the bloodiest days since the protests began a month and a half ago. While the EIA and IEA, among others, predict strong U.S. oil production growth lasting through 2020, the drillers themselves are more pessimistic. “I can’t remember another time when oil was $55 and the industry was in such shambles,” Frank Lodzinksi, an industry veteran, told Bloomberg. There is a wide gap between the bullish and bearish forecasts for U.S. oil production growth for 2020, ranging from 1 mb/d down to almost nothing. OPEC+’s likely decision to extend cuts rather than deepen them suggests the group also sees U.S. shale slowing down.

Oil Up as OPEC Output Slips – — Oil extended gains as OPEC’s crude output dropped before the group and its allies meet this week to set the path for future production cuts. Futures added 0.7% in New York even as Asian stocks declined following the announcement of fresh tariffs by President Donald Trump. Output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries slipped by 110,000 barrels a day last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, while an analyst survey predicted a weekly drop in U.S. crude stockpiles. Crude has climbed since early October on signs the U.S. and China are close to a breakthrough on an initial trade deal. Iraq said on Sunday that OPEC+ may consider deepening output cuts, contrary to expectations, while Saudi Arabia has signaled it will no longer tolerate cheating by other members on quotas. “The global oil supply-demand balance requires an extension of the current OPEC+ cuts,” Damien Courvalin, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in a report. “Already large speculative buying in recent weeks and some expectations for a longer/larger cut suggests that an uneventful three-month extension is unlikely to provide much upside to current prices.” West Texas Intermediate for January delivery advanced 40 cents to $56.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 9:05 a.m. London time. Brent for February settlement gained 33 cents to $61.25 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a $5 premium to WTI for the same month. The drop in OPEC’s production last month was led by Angola, whose output fell to the lowest in more than a decade. Iranian volumes, already squeezed to the lowest since the 1980s by U.S. sanctions, dwindled even further. U.S. crude inventories probably shrank by 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the Bloomberg survey of analysts. If that’s confirmed by Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday, it would be the first decrease in six weeks.

Brent oil ends near 5-week low, but U.S. prices rise as traders weigh prospects for deeper OPEC+ output cuts – Oil futures ended on a mixed note Tuesday, with Brent oil prices logging their lowest settlement in almost five weeks, but U.S. benchmark prices were up a second straight session.Traders weighed the potential for deeper production cuts when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies meet later this week, as well as comments from President Donald Trump, who said it might be better to wait until after the 2020 election to complete a trade deal with China. The lack of a trade deal has fed uncertainty over energy demand.“Energy traders are unlikely to see oil prices break above [their] recent trading range unless we see OPEC and its allies deliver deeper production cuts,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery rose 14 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $56.10 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, following a gain of 1.4% on Monday. Global benchmark February Brent crude, however, lost 10 cents, or 0.2%, to finish at $60.82 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe – the lowest front-month contract settlement since Oct. 31, according to Dow Jones Market Data. “We should not be surprised if the Saudis lead the charge for higher oil prices,” he said in emailed commentary. “Too much is at stake for the Saudis with their Aramco IPO just around the corner.”

WTI Extends Gains After Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw – Oil prices managed a modest gain today, after Friday’s big plunge (and yesterday’s modest gains) thanks to investors hope that the upcoming OPEC+ meeting that could lead to deeper supply cuts by some of the world’s biggest crude producers.“With the OPEC meetings coming up, there are expectations that not only will there be an extension of the existing cuts but also a further production cut,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston.Crude also bounced above its 50-day moving average – and the dollar was weaker – which both helped technically but all eyes are once again on inventories tonight… API:

• Crude -3.72mm (-1.5mm exp) – biggest draw since September
• Cushing -251k
• Gasoline +2.931mm
• Distillates +794k

After 5 straight weeks of builds, API reports that crude inventories drew down more than expected in the last week (-3.72mm vs -1.5mm exp)…

Oil Up Despite Trade-Deal Bearishness— Oil defied trade-deal bearishness to rise for a third day after an industry report pointed to shrinking U.S. crude stockpiles and before OPEC+ decides on its output-cut policy later this week. Futures added as much as 0.9% in New York as Asian stocks dropped amid heightened uncertainty over whether the U.S. and China will reach their much-touted limited trade agreement. The American Petroleum Institute reported crude inventories fell by 3.72 million barrels last week, according to people familiar with the data. That would be the biggest decline since September if confirmed by Energy Information Administration figures due Wednesday. Oil has been rising since early October on optimism the U.S. and China are close to an initial deal, suggesting crude has room to fall if the two sides can’t reach an agreement. However, the likelihood that OPEC and its allies will extend production cuts and toughen compliance, together with some signs that they could deepen them, appears to be propping up prices this week. “Oil’s getting support as the market widely expects OPEC+ to extend the current output curbs when they gather this week,” said Will Sungchil Yun, a commodities analyst at HI Investment & Futures Corp. in Seoul. If U.S.-China trade relations worsen again, crude will likely be driven downward, he said. West Texas Intermediate for January delivery climbed 27 cents, or 0.5%, to $56.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:42 a.m. in London. The contract rose 0.3% to close at $56.10 on Tuesday following a 1.4% gain on Monday. Brent for February settlement added 37 cents, or 0.6%, to $61.19 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a $4.88 premium to WTI for the same month. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the EIA to report a 1.5-million barrel decline in U.S. crude inventories, according to the median estimate. That would be the first drop in six weeks.

Deeper oil cuts and stricter compliance top agenda as OPEC+ gathers in Vienna – An upcoming meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC allies could see the group deepen oil production curbs, energy analysts told CNBC, although an extension of existing cuts and an emphasis on stricter compliance is still seen as the most likely outcome. OPEC members will host a meeting in Vienna, Austria on Thursday to discuss the next phase of their oil production policy. The 14-member group will then hold talks with non-OPEC allies on Friday. The wider group, sometimes referred to as OPEC+, has reduced output by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) since the beginning of the year. The current deal, which runs through to March 2020, replaced a previous round of production cuts that began in January 2017. “I think there is a possibility that we see around 400,000 barrels per day deeper cuts,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy in Vienna on Wednesday. “Saudi Arabia is definitely keen to surprise the market to the upside,” Sen said, but cautioned deeper production cuts had “definitely not been firmed yet.” International benchmark Brent crude traded at $62.93 on Thursday morning, down around 0.1%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $58.29, down more than 0.2%. Oil prices have rallied in recent trading sessions, boosted by intensifying speculation about the potential for deeper production cuts. However, Brent crude futures remain around 15% lower when compared to an April peak, with WTI down 12% over the same period.

Iraq, one of OPEC’s biggest over-producers, is urging deeper production cuts – Iraq’s oil minister on Wednesday endorsed dramatically higher crude production cuts for OPEC and its non-OPEC allies, known as OPEC+, in order to lift global oil prices after a year of lackluster demand. The comments, from a country that has consistently pumped beyond its agreed output targets, came as the price of Brent crude rose 1.8% in morning trade London time. “The 1.2 (million barrels per day) is not really that effective,” Thamer Ghadhban told CNBC’s Dan Murphy in Vienna, referencing the communal output cuts agreed by OPEC+ in December of 2018 that were extended last June. Oil ministers are now convening to discuss whether to carry on or deepen the cuts. Iraq, the second-largest oil producer of OPEC’s 14 members, is also one of its most chronic over-producers, having consistently violated output cut agreements due to its complicated political situation and heavy reliance on hydrocarbon revenues for reconstruction after years of war. But Ghadhban, ahead of OPEC+ meetings on Thursday and Friday, voiced his support for a further 400,000 barrel per day (bpd) production cut across the group’s members. “The 1.6 (million bpd) … I think it would be more effective, no doubt about that,” the minister said. “It would improve the situation within the oil supply and demand. And it is not only OPEC now who is the main player – OPEC contributes oil about 30%, and the number one producer is the U.S. So there are new realities in the world.” The minister maintained that it was too early to know whether such cuts would be unanimously approved by the group’s 24 members, something that is required for any production cut agreement.

OPEC considering deeper production cuts, but its meeting is in disarray before it even gets started– OPEC’s meetings appear to be in disarray even before they begin this week, but analysts see a growing chance the fractured group may ultimately agree to deeper production cuts. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meet Thursday in Vienna, and they will be joined by Russia and other non OPEC producers Friday. That larger group, known as OPEC plus, had been expected to extend an existing agreement to cut 1.2 million barrels a day through June. The agreement had been set to expire in March. Helima Croft, RBC head of global commodities strategy, said it is now her understanding that a larger cut had the support of the OPEC core operating group, as well as its partner Russia. Croft, speaking from Vienna, said it appears the defacto operating group of OPEC has agreed to larger cuts, but it was not discussed at a meeting on Tuesday of the Joint Technical Committee that monitors the production deal. Iraq oil minister Thamer Ghadhban Wednesday told CNBC’s Dan Murphy in Vienna that the current cuts are not enough, and the group should cut 400,000 more. Croft said the Iraqi minister’s comments created a stir and helped send oil prices about 4% higher Wednesday. “If the plan was for a surprise party, it has been been dashed,” she said. “The problem with the Iraqi oil minister putting this information out there is now it has set market expectations. Now if they come out with just an extended cut, and not deeper, and just honor the rolling agreement to go to March, that’s a bearish outcome. He really did upend everything.”

JP Morgan expects bigger OPEC production cuts and no more ‘free passes’ for U.S. shale drillers – Many analysts expect OPEC and its partners to extend their current production agreement by three months when they meet later this week, but J.P. Morgan analysts expect further cuts of another 300,000 barrels a day. The J.P. Morgan analysts said their base case now is that the deal will be for cuts of 1.5 million barrels a day, extended through June. The ongoing agreement between OPEC, Russia and other non-OPEC producers is for a 1.2 million barrel a day reduction. That deal was set to expire in March. OPEC and Russia and other producers, or OPEC plus, meet Thursday and Friday in Vienna. The J.P. Morgan analysts said they held a conference call with Jaafar Altaie, managing director and founder of Manaar Energy, on the OPEC plus outlook. Their main takeaway from the call is that Manaar expects OPEC to agree to deeper cuts. Manaar expects Saudi Arabia’s oil minister to commit to production of 10 million barrels a day, down from its current quota of 10.3 million barrels a day. Larger cuts should make the market tighter and help boost prices. The J.P. Morgan analysts said they also understand from Manaar that OPEC has been focused on the growth of U.S. shale production and wants no more “free passes” for U.S. producers. U.S. shale production has surged to 12.9 million barrels a day, while OPEC and its partners have held oil off the market. U.S. oil exports also increased by about 1 million barrels a day this year, boosting market share at the expense of OPEC and others Goldman Sachs oil analysts expect OPEC plus to keep its production cut at current levels and to extend them through June, when the OPEC plus group is next scheduled to meet. The Goldman analysts expect oil prices to be choppy around this week’s meeting because there is so much uncertainty about what the producers will do. “Already large speculative buying in recent weeks and some expectations for a longer/larger cut suggests that an uneventful 3 month extension is unlikely to provide much upside to current prices,” the Goldman analysts wrote. They noted that Brent should trade around $60 per barrel in 2020, absent any geopolitical shocks. Brent futures were trading just over $61 per barrel in afternoon trading, while West Texas Intermediate crude was around $56 per barrel.according to Goldman Sachs energy analysts. The J.P. Morgan analyst said Saudi Arabia would like to see a higher price, and its fiscal ‘comfort level’ for near-term Brent is around $60 to $70 per barrel. Saudi Arabia has been bearing the brunt of the cuts, while some members, like Russia, Nigeria and Iraq, are still not in complete compliance. Oil analysts have expected OPEC plus to continue pressing members that are not holding to production quotas.

Oil Slides After Saudis Threaten To Boost Production If Oil Producers Don’t Comply With Output Cuts – Three days after oil tumbled following a Bloomberg report that Saudi Arabia was angry at its (N)OPEC co-members for not complying with production quotas, and was no longer willing to compensate for excessive production by other members of the cartel, the WSJ reports that Riyadh, furious that the price of oil refuses to rise and set to take Aramco public, is threatening to boost oil production and unilaterally flood the market if “some” OPEC nations continue to defy the group’s output curbs.The surprising ultimatum which reeks of what Saudi Arabia did in November 2014 when it effectively dissolved the cartel, and flooded the world with oil in hopes of putting shale producers out of business only to fail miserably as it never accounted for cheap money and the greed of US junk bond investors, comes one day ahead of a gathering between OPEC and non-OPEC nations including Russia on Thursday and Friday in Vienna.As the WSJ reports, at a technical meeting Tuesday, a Saudi delegate said his government is growing tired of indirectly benefiting the budgets of countries that are flouting the OPEC pact by overproducing oil, said a person who was present. If the noncompliance continues, “the Saudi official signaled that the kingdom would begin merely complying with its commitment – rather than overcutting to make up for laggards in the group.”The target of Saudi ire are reportedly three specific nations, namely Iraq, Nigeria and Russia; this emerged during a slide presentation by a Saudi official who said the trio of oil-producing nations weren’t adhering to the pact that commits the 14 OPEC nations and 10 allied countries to a collective 1.2 million-barrel output curb. Saudi Arabia, the argument goes, is contending with weak oil prices and members of the cartel who aren’t complying with the collective output cut they agreed to last summer. As a result, the Saudis are considering radical measures, including a new pact that would deepen production cuts although if there is one thing the cartel is notorious for, it is ignoring self-imposed production limits when it suits the individual member states as the Crown Prince is finding out now. The stakes for Riyadh are huge: the (N)OPEC spat comes as Saudi Arabia is finalizing the IPO of its national oil company, Aramco, and hopes to bring the company public at the highest possible price, however that also needs a much higher oil price. While the company wasn’t mentioned at the meeting, another delegate said the Saudi position was “all about the IPO of Aramco.”

Saudi Arabia denies pushing OPEC allies to commit to a deeper round of production cuts, source says – OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia has denied pursuing a deeper round of production cuts, one senior oil official told CNBC on Thursday, despite intense speculation the global oil-producing group was on the cusp of imposing further output curbs. The oil-rich kingdom was widely considered to be pushing for other OPEC members to sign up for at least an additional 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of production cuts. But, one anonymous Saudi oil official told CNBC on the sidelines of a meeting in Vienna, Austria that this was not the case – and Riyadh had not proposed any figures. OPEC and non-OPEC allies – sometimes referred to as OPEC+ – have gathered in Vienna this week to discuss the next phase of their oil production policy. The 14-member group will hold talks on Thursday, before meeting with non-OPEC allies, including Russia, on Friday. The energy alliance has reduced output by 1.2 million bpd since the beginning of the year. The current deal, which runs through to March 2020, replaced a previous round of production cuts that began in January 2017. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $63.53 on Thursday afternoon, up more than 0.8%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $58.76, approximately 0.5% higher. Oil prices have rallied in recent trading sessions, boosted by growing speculation about the potential for deeper production cuts. However, Brent crude futures remain around 15% lower when compared to an April peak, with WTI down 12% over the same period.

Saudis Offer OPEC+ Quid Pro Quo— Saudi Arabia is offering fellow OPEC+ members a quid pro quo: If you stop cheating, we’ll curb production. With just hours to go before the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ meeting in Vienna, it was unclear if the kingdom was simply offering to return to its average output for 2019 — ending a brief surge to compensate for the September attacks on its oil facilities — or whether it was willing to take even more oil off a market that’s looking oversupplied in early 2020. What was becoming clear, according to OPEC delegates, was new Saudi Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman’s reluctance to endorse the status quo, in which countries including Iraq, Nigeria and Russia have consistently failed to implement their pledged output cuts, leaving the kingdom carrying most of the burden of supporting crude prices. “The kingdom has explicitly communicated to OPEC that it will no longer tolerate under-compliance,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. “If it continues, Saudi Arabia can easily return to producing at or above its current quota.” The outcome of the meeting remained in the balance on Thursday as OPEC officials shuttled between sit-downs in the suites of luxury hotels. Iraq, the country with the poorest track record complying with the pact, had been the main advocate for a deeper cut of about 400,000 barrels a day, but later on Wednesday the minister said instead he favored an extension of the current accord until the end of 2020. For the oil market, a new deal could be a psychological boost as traders fret about possible oversupply next year, but may take relatively few barrels out of the physical market. Saudi Arabia has already been pumping significantly below its official OPEC level, and few are likely to believe that nations such as Iraq, Nigeria or even Russia, which haven’t complied with the deal so far this year, are about to start. Crude prices jumped 4.2% in New York on Wednesday, the biggest gain since September. West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $58.42 a barrel as of 5:36 a.m. local time on Thursday. The so-called OPEC+ alliance has an agreement to reduce output by about 1.2 million barrels a day since the start of the year in order to eliminate a surplus and bolster crude prices. That deal expires at the end of March, right in the middle of what looks to be a tricky patch for the oil market. Demand growth is slowing and another big expansion in rival production is coming down the pipeline.

WTI Hovers Above $58 After Bigger-Than-Expected Crude Draw – Oil prices, led by hope-ridden trade-deal headlines and OPEC+ chatter, have soared back above $58, erasing Friday’s losses… But, after API’s reporting a bigger than expected crude draw, all eyes are on the official government data this morning… DOE:

• Crude -4.856mm (-1.5mm exp) – biggest draw since August
• Cushing -302k
• Gasoline +3.385mm
• Distillates +3.063m – biggest build since July

DOE data shows an even bigger crude draw than API reported (and an even bigger build in gasoline stocks)… US crude production held at record highs… And WTI was unsure where to go now that the algos ran the stops…

Oil jumps 4% on U.S. stockpiles drop; further OPEC output cuts seen –(Reuters) – Oil prices surged 4% on Wednesday on expectations that OPEC and allied producers would extend production curbs, and as U.S. government data showed a large drop in domestic crude stockpiles. Brent crude LCOc1 futures were up $2.44, or 4%, at $63.26 a barrel by 11:09 ET (1609 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures were up $2.38, or 4.2%, at $58.48. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, could approve deeper crude output cuts when they meet in Vienna this week. U.S. crude stocks fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week to Nov. 29 as refineries hiked output, the Energy Information Administration said, a much deeper draw than expected. Analysts had forecast a decrease of just 1.7 million barrels. “A jump in refining activity and ongoing subdued net imports have helped yield the first draw to oil inventories in six weeks,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Clipper Data. Iraqi oil minister Thamer Ghadhban told reporters in Vienna on Tuesday that “a deeper cut is being preferred by a number of key members”. On Wednesday, Ghadhban said he would support at least extending existing cuts to end-2020 from March. “We have to give a positive signal to the market and to me at least we should roll-over the present agreement,” he said. Some in the market remained skeptical of whether OPEC+ will deepen cuts, though many analysts expect an extension of the existing supply pact. OPEC members meet on Thursday, with the OPEC+ group meeting the following day. OPEC+ has been curbing supply since 2017 and is expected to keep the cuts in place to balance out record production in the United States. Oil prices had been held back by the uncertainty over prospects for a trade deal between the United States and China. The dispute between the world’s two biggest economies has weakened the global economy and limited oil demand growth.

Oil Holds Surge as Stockpiles Add to Trade Optimism— Oil held its biggest surge in more than two months as signs of a potential U.S.-China deal and tightening American crude stockpiles bolstered prices ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. Futures were little changed in New York after jumping 4.2% on Wednesday, the biggest gain since the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy facilities. The U.S. and China are moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in an initial trade deal, according to people familiar. American crude inventories fell more than expected last week, while Oman’s Oil Minister Mohammed Al Rumhi said Gulf Arab members of the OPEC+ coalition have reached a consensus on the need to prolong output cuts. Oil has rallied since early October on optimism Beijing and Washington are close to a breakthrough in the prolonged trade war that has dented demand. While Iraq backed away from a proposal for steeper production curbs, Saudi Arabia may lead the way in deepening cuts if other countries better comply with their quotas, according to delegates from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The precise terms of any proposed deal remain unclear. “Any hint of tariff rollback is absolute positive mood music to the oil market’s ears,” Stephen Innes, chief Asia market strategist at AxiTrader, wrote in a note. “An extension of the existing OPEC+ agreement and stricter enforcement of compliance would be the bare minimum to expect, but the real debate is on whether deeper cuts will be announced.” West Texas Intermediate for January delivery fell 17 cents to $58.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 8:02 a.m. in London. The contract advanced $2.33 to close at $58.43 on Wednesday, the highest level in two weeks. Brent for February settlement lost 13 cents to $62.87 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The contract gained 3.6% to close at $63 on Wednesday. The global benchmark crude traded at a $4.71 premium to WTI for the same month. U.S. negotiators expect a phase-one deal with China to be completed before American tariffs are set to rise on Dec. 15, people familiar with the talks said. Outstanding issues include how to guarantee China’s purchases of American agricultural goods and exactly which duties to roll back, they added.

Oil whipsaws in choppy trade as Street awaits OPEC output decision – Oil moved between gains and losses on Thursday as traders awaited the decision from OPEC on its production policy. Ahead of the meeting in Vienna, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ was discussing a larger-than-expected 500,000 barrel a day production cut for the first quarter of 2020. Oil briefly gave back its gains after Novak also said to Bloomberg that the deeper cuts would only be implemented if each member complies with its current production quota. U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled unchanged at $58.43. Brent crude futures gained 44 cents to hit $63.45. Ahead of Thursday’s meeting, Iraq said that it was pushing for a 400,000 barrel a day production cut on top of the existing agreement for cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day. Helima Croft, RBC head of global commodities strategy, said to CNBC ahead of the meeting that it was her understanding that a larger cut has the support of the OPEC core operating group, as well as its partner Russia. 24-country OPEC+ has cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year, and the current deal runs through March of 2020. Production cuts were first implemented in January of 2017 in an attempt to bolster prices as the U.S. kicked up its shale oil production, among other things. As the meeting kicked off reports conflicted over who proposed the cuts. WTI briefly sold off after CNBC reported that one senior Saudi oil official denied pursuing a deeper round of production cuts. On Monday Reuters had previously reported that Saudi Arabia could be in favor of deeper cuts in order to give Aramco a boost as it hit the public market. Also in focus will be individual country’s production output. Again Capital’s John Kilduff said that he believes Saudi Arabia is “open” to a cut, but that the most important thing to the nation is that country’s comply with the quotas that are currently in place.

Oil Sputters After OPEC+ Fails to Pin Down Details— Oil sputtered near $58 a barrel as the OPEC+ coalition failed to pin down the details of an agreement to adjust its official output target even after six hours of talks in Vienna. Futures were little changed in New York after gyrating throughout the previous session. While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is nearing a deal to deepen its output cut by 500,000 barrels a day, ministers left the cartel’s headquarters on Thursday without cementing an agreement. Saudi Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, in his first meeting as energy minister, left reporters with a promise of “beautiful news tomorrow.” Oil is still on track for the biggest weekly gain since September as shrinking American crude stockpiles and signs of progress on a possible U.S.-China trade deal added to the bullish tone. Full compliance to cuts got easier for Russia, which has achieved its targeted curbs in just three months this year, after OPEC agreed to exclude a very light oil called condensate from the country’s quota, while the new target for Iraq was a particular sticking point. “We may even see oil prices falling if the group officially excludes condensate from Russia’s quota and fails to come up with a solution to improve Iraq and Nigeria’s compliance level,” said Kim Kwangrae, a commodities analyst at Samsung Futures Inc. in Seoul. “Details will matter when OPEC makes an official announcement.” West Texas Intermediate for January delivery lost 8 cents to $58.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:45 a.m. London time. The contract closed unchanged on Thursday after swinging between gains and losses. Prices are up 5.8% this week, the most since the week ended Sept. 20. Brent for February settlement fell 10 cents, or 0.2%, to $63.29 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange. The contract is up 1.4% this week. The global benchmark traded at a $5.03 premium to WTI for the same month. A reduction of 500,000 barrels a day by OPEC and its allies would largely be symbolic, simply formalizing the extra supply reductions the group has already been making for most of this year, rather than taking barrels off the market. The emphasis on compliance reflects Saudi Arabia’s unhappiness with the status quo, in which countries including Iraq and Nigeria have consistently failed to implement their promises.

‘Is this the beginning of the end?’: OPEC discord raises questions about its long-term future -The future of OPEC looks increasingly uncertain, energy analysts told CNBC Friday, citing a deepening rift among the 14-member group.OPEC and non-OPEC partners, sometimes referred to as OPEC+, have gathered in Vienna, Austria to decide the next phase of their oil production policy.Led by Saudi Arabia, the oil cartel agreed in principle on Thursday to cut production by an additional 500,000 barrels per day (b/d) through to the end of March 2020, according to CNBC sources.But it was initially unclear whether OPEC members had secured a deal, following an acrimonious meeting that ran late into the evening.Herman Wang, OPEC and Middle East specialist at S&P Global Platts, said Thursday’s meeting had caused him to question the long-term future of OPEC.Speaking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy in Vienna on Friday, Wang said: “What we saw last night was not a unified OPEC. Is this the beginning of the end?”Wang highlighted several issues that suggested a cause for concern, including Ecuador’s decision to quit the group at the end of the year, media reports of Angola’s delegate walking out of the OPEC meeting, Iraq consistently over-producing its quota and a strained relationship between OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC leader, Russia. “It’s all about the unity of OPEC. Can they hold this coalition together to keep oil prices from falling?” he added.

OPEC meeting ends with market expecting deep production cut – Global oil-producing group OPEC reportedly considered cutting production by an additional 500,000 barrels per day as its biannual meeting kicked off Thursday in Vienna. The meeting of the 14-member cartel ended just after 11 p.m. local time. While initially it was unclear if a deal had been reached, Dow Jones reported that Iran’s oil minister said a deal had been reached although he would not comment further. Earlier, sources told CNBC’S Brian Sullivan that the organization still had multiple issues to resolve, and just before 4 p.m. ET OPEC announced that it was canceling its customary press conference that usually follows the meeting. The reported 500,000 cut is larger than the numbers floated ahead of the meeting. It would bring the total production cut to 1.7 million barrels per day. On Friday, OPEC and its allies – known as OPEC+ and which includes Russia – will meet to finalize any proposed measures, including how any cuts would be implemented by each country. Earlier Thursday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that the steeper cuts would extend through the first quarter of 2020 and would only be implemented if each member complies with its current production quota. Novak also said, according to reports, that condensates would no longer be quoted as part of output for countries, a move which would reduce the total impact of the cuts. In after hours trading international benchmark Brent crude gained 21 cents to trade at $63.21. U.S. West Texas Intermediate shed 10 cents to trade at $58.33.

OPEC and its allies agree to deepen oil production cuts – Energy ministers from some of the world’s largest oil producers have agreed to deepen recurring production cuts by an additional 500,000 barrels per day (b/d) through to March 2020. OPEC and non-OPEC allies, often referred to as OPEC+, decided to implement tighter oil production policy at a biannual meeting in Vienna, Austria on Friday. The new deal, which is much larger than many analysts had expected, will see OPEC+ reduce total oil output by 1.7 million b/d. The energy alliance has said it plans to review the policy at an extraordinary meeting on March 5-6. Oil prices rallied shortly after the OPEC+ announcement. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $64.70 on Friday afternoon, up around 2%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $59.63, over 2% higher. However, Brent crude futures remain around 15% lower when compared to an April peak, with WTI down almost 12% over the same period. Compliance quotas Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told reporters on Friday that the oil-rich kingdom’s quota would be an additional 167,000 b/d through to March 2020. Sitting alongside OPEC delegates at a press conference shortly after the meeting, Abdulaziz explained his country would also extend a voluntary cut of 400,000 b/d. This means the energy alliance’s total cuts would effectively amount to 2.1 million b/d, he said, before emphasizing that OPEC+ would only be able to achieve this figure with improved compliance. OPEC’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia has been adamant those that have previously been overproducing – such as Iraq and Nigeria – must comply with the group’s quota. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow’s quota would be 300,000 b/d during the first three months of 2020. This measurement excludes gas condensate – a high-value light crude extracted as a by-product of gas production. The energy alliance was prompted to act after global oil prices tumbled in mid-2014 due to an oversupply, but U.S. shale producers are not a part of the deal and shale oil supply has grown exponentially.

Saudi energy minister defends US shale producers: ‘They are creating jobs’ – Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman played down any rivalry between U.S. shale producers and more established oil producers in the Middle East. Speaking to CNBC’s Hadley Gamble following an OPEC decision in Vienna, Austria, on Friday, Abdulaziz said: “They (U.S. shale producers) didn’t do anything wrong, they produced more barrels, they put the U.S. on the map in terms of its energy requirements, they are growing the economy, they are creating jobs.” The U.S. is now the world’s largest oil producer hitting 12.3 million b/d in 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, up from 11 million b/d in 2018. It now produces more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia, although there are signs that production growth is slowing in the States. Due to the boom in U.S. shale production, alongside other factors, the OPEC energy alliance was prompted to act after global oil prices tumbled in mid-2014. U.S. shale producers were not part of that deal and shale oil supply grew exponentially as OPEC producers curbed output. “They did a remarkable job,” Abdulaziz told CNBC regarding the U.S. energy industry. He spoke of “legal limitations” when asked whether there could be pact with shale producers in the future, but said that Saudi Aramco – his country’s state-owned oil firm – “would go more and more international.” In May, Aramco signed an agreement to buy U.S. liquefied natural gas from San Diego-based utility Sempra Energy, which helped to advance its ambitions to become a player in the growing international gas market. The new deal, which is much larger than many analysts had expected, will see OPEC+ reduce total oil output by 1.7 million b/d. However, Abdulaziz told reporters on Friday that his country – the de facto leader of OPEC – would also extend a voluntary cut of 400,000 b/d, saying that the energy alliance’s total cuts would effectively amount to 2.1 million b/d.

Oil Jumps After OPEC Agrees To 500,000 bpd Production Cut – One day after the latest OPEC summit in Vienna ended in chaos and disarray, with the cartel unable to decide whether it will cut output further or instead punish violators of the current quote, leaving oil journalists asking questions and begging for pizza, on Friday Saudi Arabia and Russia surprised markets when they spearheaded a deal in which OPEC and non-OPEC nations committed to some of the deepest oil output cuts this decade aiming to avert oversupply and support prices amid declining global demand. The group of more than 20 producers agreed to an extra 500,000 barrels per day in cuts for the first quarter of 2020, taking the total to 1.7 million bpd, or 1.7% of global demand, in hopes of boosting sagging oil prices in an environment where Saudi Arabia has been increasingly vocal in accusing cartel members and other producers of not sticking to pre-agreed quota levels. Under the new deal, OPEC will agree to 372,000 bpd in fresh cuts and non-OPEC producers – mostly Russia – an extra 131,000 bpd. Brent jumped more than 2%, rising above $64 a barrel after Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said effective cuts could be as much as 2.1 million bpd as Saudi would carry on cutting more than its quota. The impetus behind the cut was all Saudi Arabia, which has been eager to provide a floor for oil in the aftermath of the Aramco IPO which priced yesterday at the top of its range, yet some $300BN below the $2 trillion target previously revealed by Crown Prince MbS. “The Saudi goal was not necessarily to push oil prices significantly higher, but rather – fresh on the heels of the Aramco IPO – to put a firm floor under them during the first quarter to temper any seasonal weakness,” said Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects, quoted by Reuters.

Oil posts best week since June as OPEC and allies announce deep production cut – Oil moved higher on Friday as OPEC and its allies agreed to deepen oil production cuts to 500,000 barrels a day through to March 2020. This brings the total production cut to 1.7 million barrels a day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 77 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $59.20 a barrel. For the week WTI gained more than 7%, for its best week since June. During Friday’s trading session Brent gained 1.6% to settle at $64.37. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told reporters on Friday that the oil-rich kingdom’s quota would be an additional 167,000 barrels per day. He also said that the kingdom would continue to exceed its quota by 400,000 barrels a day, which means the overall production cut will actually be closer to 2.1 million barrels a day. The country is OPEC’s de facto leader, and has been adamant that those who were previously overproducing – such as Iraq and Nigeria – comply with the group’s quota. Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that the country’s additional and voluntary cut would be contingent on other countries abiding by their allocation. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow’s quota would be 300,000 b/d during the first three months of 2020. This measurement excludes gas condensate – a high-value light crude extracted as a by-product of gas production. The energy alliance said it plans to review the policy at an extraordinary meeting on March 5-6. Ahead of the decision On Thursday the 14-member cartel, as well as its allies, which is known as OPEC+ and includes Russia, agreed in principle to reduce output by an additional 500,000 barrels per day. But as day two of meetings in Vienna kicked off Friday, there were still many questions, including how the quota would be allocated, and how long the agreement would stretch for. Friday’s meeting followed a tumultuous and marathon session Thursday. Talks stretched on for hours, and the customary press conference held after the meeting wraps was abruptly cancelled. The duration of the deal was one of the key unknowns. On Friday OPEC said it would meet again on March 5-6. The cartel typically meets every six months, so the announcement had led some on the Street to believe the increased cut would only extend through the first quarter. “It remains unclear what would occur in 2Q20, potentially reflecting Saudi’s new stance that they could walk away from this deal if other countries did not comply fully,” Goldman Sachs analyst Damien Courvalin said in a note to clients Thursday. Another key factor was compliance. Currently several members including Iraq, Nigeria and Russia are over-producing. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, exceeds its current target cut, and signaled ahead of OPEC’s meeting that stricter rules should be implemented.

Saudi Aramco prices shares at top of the range, valuing it at $1.7 trillion – Saudi Arabian Oil Co., or Saudi Aramco, priced its IPO at 32 riyals ($8.53) per share – the top of its indicative range – which puts the company on track to raise $25.6 billion. The state-owned company’s public debut will become the largest on record, topping the $25 billion Alibaba raised when it went public in September 2014. Aramco’s initial public offering may have priced at the top of its range, but the $1.7 trillion valuation is below what the kingdom had initially been targeting. The long-awaited IPO of the world’s largest and most profitable company will list locally on the Tadawul, Saudi Arabia’s stock exchange, and forms the centerpiece of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 aimed at transforming the Saudi economy. The pricing announcement follows a weeklong local roadshow around the Middle East that saw Aramco’s local listing oversubscribed by nearly three times, attracting offers worth 189.04 billion riyals ($50.4 billion), according to banks advising the listing. Institutional investors had between Nov. 17 and Dec. 4 to place their orders. Aramco has said in the past that 0.5% of its listed shares would be available to individual retail buyers, while the remaining 1% would be for institutional investors. That 1% is equivalent to 2 billion shares. In the first 2½ weeks of Aramco’s book-building period, it drew subscription orders for 5.9 billion shares. The IPO’s size is well short of the crown prince’s initial valuation of $2 trillion. The kingdom needed to rely predominantly on local investors after canceling roadshows in London and New York on the back of lackluster international interest.

OPEC supply cut not timed for Aramco listing, Saudi energy minister says -Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told CNBC that an agreement to further trim global oil supply wasn’t intentionally timed to coincide with the initial public offering (IPO) of state-owned energy company Saudi Aramco. On Thursday, Aramco priced its IPO at 32 riyals per share ($8.53), putting it on track to raise $25.6 billion in what would be the largest IPO ever conducted. On Friday, OPEC and its allies – a wider grouping termed OPEC+ – agreed to cut an extra 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of their oil production during the first three months of 2020. Following the announcement, Abdulaziz told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble that the two events weren’t linked. “The fact that they coincided, people try to draw a correlation between the two. Some media outlets tried to use that as a way to explain what we are trying to do at this meeting,” he said. Abdulaziz said Saudi Aramco’s value couldn’t be evaluated by “a tweak here or a tweak there” in the oil supply. He said that the list of institutional investors for Aramco signaled that organizations were keen to back the firm for the long term. A small portion of Saudi Aramco will start trading on the local stock exchange on Wednesday, December 11. He described the decision to list locally as the “brightest day of his life,” as the benefit of the listing would go, first and foremost, to “our people” and to others who “believe in Saudi Arabia.”

Exclusive: Saudi Aramco pursues war cover after attacks – sources – (Reuters) – Saudi Aramco is looking to buy insurance against war and terror attacks after a damaging drone and missile attack on some of its oil facilities in September, two sources told Reuters. Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, has been looking for cover from insurers including those based at Lloyd’s of London and elsewhere in the London market, they added. The firm is seeking cover for facilities in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, its oil heartland, where it suffered the September attacks, one of the sources said. Aramco said in the prospectus of this month’s planned listing that it did not insure against all risks and its cover may not protect it from terrorism or acts of war. At the launch of the IPO, which could be the world’s biggest and raise up to $25.6 billion, Aramco said that it did not expect the Sept. 14 attack to have a material impact on its finances and operations.

Houthi rebels say 2nd aircraft shot down over Yemen in 2 days – Spokesman — Houthi Rebels said they have shot down an unmanned drone over northern Yemen just a day after claiming to bring down a Saudi Apache helicopter, Yahya Sarea, the group’s military spokesman, said on Saturday, Eurasia Disry reports on Sputnik News. “Yemeni air defences were able to shoot down a Chinese-made Wing Loong fighter reconnaissance aircraft in the Hiran district of Hajjah province this evening during hostilities”, Sarea said in a post in Twitter.Sarea added that the operation was caught on tape and that footage will be published shortly.Earlier in the day, Yemeni news outlet Almasirah released footage it said showed the Saudi Apache military helicopter shot down on Friday. Sarea on Friday said that two crew members on board the helicopter died.The purported spike in hostilities comes after a week which saw peace overtures from the Saudi-led coalition. A statement by the Saudi defence ministry on Tuesday announced the release of 200 Houthi captives from its prisons and the reopening of the airport in Yemen’s capital Sanaa for medical patients.The International Committee of the Red Cross later confirmed the return of 128 Yemeni prisoners from the kingdom. The armed conflict in Yemen between the government forces and Houthi rebels has been ongoing since 2015. The former is backed by a military coalition of Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia.

Why the resignation of Iraq’s prime minister will not automatically stop the mass uprising on the horizon – Patrick Cockburn. -Protesters in Iraq have won their first big success by forcing the resignation of the Iraqi prime minister, Adel Abdul-Mahdi, after the killing of 45 unarmed protesters by the Iraqi security forces in a single day. As the news spread, the crack of celebratory fireworks replaced that of gunshots in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square, which has been the centre of demonstrations since they began two months ago. The impending departure of Mahdi is a symbolic victory for the protests, but too many people have been killed for it to quell what is close to a mass uprising by the majority Shia community. He had proved an ineffectual leader and the entire ruling elite in Iraq is probably too corrupt and too determined to hang on to power to make the radical reforms demanded by the protesters. The announcement that the prime minister was stepping down came after 36 hours in which the security forces had switched from killing individual demonstrators to massacres on a larger scale – with as many as 50 people shot dead on a bridge in the southern city of Nasiriya – bringing the number killed to 408, as well as thousands more wounded, since 1 October. Compare this horrific casualty list over eight weeks with that in Hong Kong, where just one protester has been killed and one has died accidentally since protests started six months ago. Probably the world has got used to Iraqis being murdered in large numbers, whether it is by Isis, Saddam Hussein or the US air force, so it is no longer considered news. But history is made by unreported massacres. “It plants hatred in the heart,” a Palestinian once said of a mass killing by Israeli troops decades ago in Gaza in which his uncle had been killed. The violence is seen as only affecting Iraqis, but it has the potential to reshape the politics of the Middle East. Since the Iranian revolution in 1979, one of the most powerful political and military forces in the region has been the increasing strength of Shia communities under Iranian leadership. But in the last two months, this victorious, Iranian-led Shia coalition has been fractured as pro-Iranian sections of the Iraqi security services and paramilitary groups repeatedly shot down Shias protesting about the lack of jobs, inadequate social services and pervasive corruption on the part of Iraq’s ruling elite. These protests were initially on a small scale and only gained momentum because of the government’s overreaction to what was at first a very minor threat.

Iraq parliament approves PM Adel Abdul Mahdi’s resignation – Iraqi legislators approved Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi’s resignation on Sunday during a parliament session held in the capital Baghdad amid weeks of deadly anti-government protests. An embattled Abdul Mahdi had announced on Friday that he would quit, after 50 demonstrators were killed the previous day by security forces in Baghdad and Iraq’s mainly Shia southern cities of Nasiriya and Najaf. The prime minister also faced criticism from Iraq’s top Shia leader, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who condemned the use of lethal force against the protesters and called for a new government. A cabinet meeting on Saturday had approved Abdul Mahdi’s announcement, which also suggested the resignation of key members of the Iraqi government, including the prime minister’s chief of staff. Legal experts told Al Jazeera that the government would assume a caretaker role for 30 days or until the largest bloc in parliament agrees on a new candidate to replace him. “Based on the constitution, this resignation includes the whole government – ministers and the deputy prime minister,” legal expert Tareq Harb told Al Jazeera. “The government has now become a caretaker government which will only address urgent issues until a new government is elected,” he added.

The Superpowers Battling Over Iraq’s Giant Oil Field – Ever since the U.S. signalled through its effective withdrawal from Syria that it now has little interest in becoming involved in military actions in the Middle East, the door has been fully opened to China and Russia to advance their ambitions in the region. For Russia, the Middle East offers a key military pivot from which it can project influence West and East and that it can use to capture and control massive oil and gas flows in both directions as well. For China, the Middle East – and, absolutely vitally, Iran and Iraq – are irreplaceable stepping stones towards Europe for its era-defining ‘One Belt, One Road’ project. Earlier this week an announcement was made by Iraq’s Oil Ministry that highlights each of these factors at play, through a relatively innocuous-sounding contract award to a relatively unknown Chinese firm. Specifically, it was announced that China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corp (CPECC) has been awarded a US$121 million engineering contract to upgrade the facilities that are used to extract gas during crude oil production at the supergiant West Qurna-1 oilfield in Iraq, 50 kilometres northwest of the principal oil hub of Basra. The project is due to be completed within 27 months and aims to increase the capture of gas currently being flared across the site. Two factors that were not highlighted in the general announcement were firstly that CPECC is a subsidiary of China’s principal political proxy in the oil and gas sector, China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), and secondly that the gas capture project will also include the development of the oil reserves at West Qurna 1. The current level of oil reserves at West Qurna 1 is just under nine billion barrels but, crucially, the site is part of the overall massive West Qurna reservoir that comprises at least 43 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Certainly it makes sense for Iraq to finally begin to monetise its associated gas that it has been burnt off for decades as a product of its burgeoning oil production. Aside from the negative environmental impact of this practice, there is the bizarre practical result that Iraq – which holds some of the biggest oil and gas reserves in the world – has to go to its neighbour Iran every year and beg for electricity imports to plug the huge power deficits that afflict it, particularly during the summer months.

Officials confirm 25 dead, 130 wounded after gunman targets Iraqi protests – Iraqi officials confirmed Saturday that 25 people died and 130 are wounded after a gunman targeted anti-government protesters in the country’s capitol overnight. Three of the dead were law enforcement officers and the rest were protesters, CBS News reported. The gunfire continued until early Saturday morning, shots fired in Baghdad’s Khilani Square and Sinak Bridge. These areas have been the center of the uprising, and chaos erupted after the electricity was cut and people fled into mosques and other areas to escape the shooting. A car park that protesters were using as a base for their sit in was lit on fire, as shots were fired into surrounding buildings. Protesters raised a bloody white flag as they returned to the site Saturday, according to CBS News. Iraqi security forces were deployed to the square early Saturday morning. A prominent Shiite cleric, Muqtada sl-Sadr, the head of the country’s parliament’s Sairoon bloc, said a drone targeted his home in Najaf Saturday as well. Nassar al-Rubaie, head of Sairoon’s political committee, sharply criticized the attack in televised remarks and called for an emergency parliamentary session to address the violence. Anti-government protestors initially blamed supporters of Iran-backed Iraqi militias, which have attacked past protests. A string of knife attacks also targeted protesters this week, after the militias held a counter-demonstration in Baghdad.

Iranian General: Our Missiles Are Aimed at 21 US Bases – In a speech over the weekend in the city of Bushehr, Iranian General Allahnoor Noorollahi talked of Iran’s substantial military power, particularly as it relates to conventional missiles, declaring them the fourth most powerful missile system behind the US, Russia, and China. And with tensions between the US and Iran mounting, and the US constantly emphasizing military perspective, the Iranian general was doing the same, saying Iran’s missiles are aimed at all 21 US bases in the region. This is both a reflection of how dangerous the environment in the region is getting, with both the US and Iranian militaries being told to gear up for a potential conflict, and how little of an accident it might take to lead to a full-scale war. Gen. Noorollahi’s comments reflect the reality of Iran’s posture toward a long-threatened US attack, which they are trying to deter with retaliatory capabilities. It seems risky to count on that, however, with both sides constantly scaling up their capabilities, and relations getting progressively worse.

US Enraged After 6 More EU Nations Join Effort to Bypass Iran Sanctions (ZH) – On Friday six European countries issued a bombshell joint statement declaring their intent to join INSTEX, or the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges, a European special-purpose vehicle serving as a ‘SWIFT alternative’ to bypass US sanctions on Iran.Finland, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden released a joint statement asserting it’s of “the utmost importance to the preservation and full implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) on Iran’s nuclear program by all parties involved.”“In light of the continuous European support for the agreement and the ongoing efforts to implement the economic part of it and to facilitate legitimate trade between Europe and Iran, we are now in the process of becoming shareholders of the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (Instex) subject to completion of national procedures,” the statement reads. Instex is an initiative set up by France, Germany and the UK in January 2019 to provide humanitarian and sanctions relief to Iran after in November 2018 the SWIFT network suspended Iranian banks under Washington pressure, months after Trump pulled the US out of the nuclear deal. Though the new alternative financial device had shaky beginnings amid further aggressive threats from the US administration, it continued through a trial phase even though Tehran officials had complained it appeared ‘too little, too late’. But now as this latest six country statement announces, it will serve as the European vehicle to “facilitate legitimate trade between Europe and Iran,” while also providing incentive for Tehran to return to its commitments under the JCPOA, specifically to recently breached uranium enrichment limits. Upon the announcement, US Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell lambasted the move, saying: Terrible timing – why fund the Iranian regime while its killing the Iranian people and shutting off the internet? You should be standing for human rights not funding the abusers.

These photos show what it’s really like in Iran, where – despite its antagonistic relationship with the US – life is surprisingly normal – Business Insider

Iranian government kills hundreds in bid to suppress the worst protests in decades – According to reports from international rights organizations, opposition groups and local journalists, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s security forces have killed more than 400 people since the eruption of mass protests by workers and youth on November 15. The upheavals were triggered by an overnight hike in gas prices and widespread economic hardship. A further 2,000 people have reportedly been wounded and 7,000 arrested during the government crackdown. Given the government’s five-day internet blackout and the hostility of the Western media towards Iran, it is difficult to know how accurate these figures are and the veracity of the claims and counterclaims as to who was behind the brutal suppression of the protests. The government acknowledged that 12 people had been killed after three days of protests, while Amnesty International claimed that at least 161 people had been killed across 10 provinces, mostly as a result of live fire. According to the New York Times, which has close links to the US military and security apparatus, the death toll from the government’s crackdown during the last two weeks was between 180 and 450. Interior minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli said that 731 banks, 140 public spaces, nine religious centres, 70 gasoline stations, 307 vehicles, 183 police cars, 1,076 motorcycles and 34 ambulances were attacked and damaged. He said that there had been protests in 29 out of 31 provinces and 50 military bases had been attacked. If true, it implies a level of coordination unseen in previous demonstrations in 2009 and 2017-18, or indeed elsewhere in protest movements in the Middle East. “They were like a gang, marching in the streets with faces covered, destroying specific targets like banks” and they looked like “professionals with sophisticated tools.” He added that some of them “must have been led by foreign forces.” The IRGC claimed that some of the protesters were carrying tools not normally available in Iran. While the protests began in response to a new rationing system that allows just 60 litres (16 gallons) per month to each passenger vehicle (more for taxis and commercial vehicles) for 15,000 rials per litre – a 50 percent increase, and 30,000 rials per litre, a 300 percent increase on purchases over the 60 litres – they soon spread to encompass broader social, economic and political demands.

Iran says it killed ‘rioters’ in deadliest unrest in decades (AP) – Iran acknowledged for the first time Tuesday that its security forces shot and killed protesters across the country to put down demonstrations last month over the sharply spiking price of gasoline, the deadliest unrest to hit the country since the turmoil of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. A report by Iranian state television sought to portray those killed as “rioters” or foreign-backed insurgents who threatened military posts, oil tanks and the public. It acknowledged that the violence also killed passers-by, security forces and peaceful protesters without assigning blame. However, online videos of demonstrations purport to show security forces firing machine guns and rifles at crowds. Amnesty International believes the unrest beginning in mid-November and crackdown that followed killed at least 208 people. An Iranian judiciary official disputed the toll Tuesday as “sheer lies,” without offering any evidence to support his position. The demonstrations show the widespread economic discontent gripping Iran since May 2018, when President Donald Trump imposed crushing sanctions after unilaterally withdrawing the United States from the nuclear deal that Tehran struck with world powers. Trump himself, speaking to journalists before a NATO summit in London, claimed without evidence Iran has killed “thousands.” The demonstrations followed months of attacks across the Middle East that the U.S. blames on Tehran. Meanwhile, Iran has begun breaking the limits of the nuclear deal in hopes of pressuring Europe into finding a way for Tehran to sell its crude oil abroad despite the American sanctions. The state TV report alleged that some of those killed were “rioters who have attacked sensitive or military centers with firearms or knives or have taken hostages in some areas.” Some sought to access arsenals inside the police and military posts, the report said. In one case, the report said security forces confronted a separatist group armed with “semi-heavy weapons” in the city of Mahshahr in Iran’s southwestern Khuzestan province. The Arab population of the surrounding oil-rich province long has complained of discrimination by Iran’s central government, and insurgent groups have attacked oil pipelines there. Iran blamed both area separatists and the Islamic State group for an attack on a military parade in the region in September 2018 that killed at least 25 people.

Understand The OPCW Scandal In Seven Minutes – Caitlin Johnstone – One of the annoying things about continuing to write about the OPCW/Douma scandal in the near-total absence of mainstream media coverage is the fact that it’s difficult for a new reader to just jump in on this developing story without having followed it from the beginning. There are a lot of details to go over to introduce someone to the story, and if I repeat them every time I write an article on the subject I’m twelve paragraphs in before I get to the new developments, and by that time I’ve bored all the readers who didn’t need the introduction. I’m sure other alternative media figures commenting on this story have encountered the same problem. Fortunately for us, In The Now and journalist Dan Cohen have stepped up to the plate and put together a concise, easy-to-follow video on both Twitter and Facebook explaining the OPCW scandal in a way that enables anyone to familiarize themselves with the story in seven minutes. This article exists solely to draw attention to this excellent resource. Cohen has been really great about quickly getting concise, quality videos out to help people make sense of specific developing stories which the haze of western propaganda makes difficult to understand; his recent videos on the Bolivia coup and the Hong Kong protests were very helpful in the same way. He uses robust arguments and independently verifiable facts to clearly show that there’s much more to these stories than the mass media have been letting us know. I’ll definitely be linking to this video in my articles going forward to enable anyone who hasn’t been following the OPCW scandal closely to quickly familiarize themselves with the story. The more of these lucid, accessible resources we’ve got circulating within the information ecosystem, the better.

‘When they come, they will kill you’: Ethnic cleansing is already a reality in Turkey’s Syrian safe zone – The brutal killings were not hidden, nor were they meant to be. From the very beginning of Turkey’s invasion of northern Syria, the fighters it sent across the border to carry out the mission have proudly documented their own war crimes. Videos posted online by soldiers of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) – showing summary executions, mutilation of corpses, threats against Kurds and widespread looting – have struck terror into the tens of thousands who find themselves in the path of the offensive.The ethnic dimension to many of the crimes has resulted in a mass exodus of Kurds and religious minorities from these once diverse borderlands. Now, stranded in displacement camps across northeast Syria and in neighbouring Iraq, they fear they may never be able to return home. And that, they believe, was precisely the point. “No one can go back there now, it’s impossible,” says Muhammad Amin, 37, a Kurdish man who fled with his family from the city of Ras al-Ayn in the first days of the Turkish-led operation. “We’ve seen the videos,” he tells The Independent at a camp near the Syrian town of Tal Tamr. “They are shooting Kurdish people where they find them.” Turkey launches offensive into Syria Show all 25 The same story is being told by countless others like Amin, in the camps and temporary shelters that have sprung up in the past two months. Taken together, they paint a picture of a dramatic demographic change. Turkey launched a long-planned incursion into Syria on 9 October to establish what it described as a “safe zone” some 20 miles deep and 300 miles wide along the border. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, claimed the offensive was aimed at removing the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – a group his country classifies as a terror organisation for its links to Kurdish separatists inside Turkey.

Turkey Declares Ownership On Half Of Eastern Mediterranean Waters – A Turkish diplomat has revealed a map which delineates waters in the Mediterranean claimed by Turkey, amid an ongoing months-long standoff with Cyprus and Greece over Turkish oil and gas exploration and drilling inside Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). “After signing deals with its own puppet state in occupied northern Cyprus and with the pseudo-government in Libya’s Tripoli, Turkey declares that it owns half of the eastern Mediterranean,” Aron Lund, an analyst at The Century Foundation, observes of the newly published map. New map outlining Turkey’s claimed continental shelf and the borders of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), via Hurriyet Daily. Meanwhile the entire eastern side of Cyprus is claimed by the internationally disputed “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.”And Turkey’s Hurriyet Daily explains: “With the chart, Çağatay Erciyes showed the outer boundaries of Turkey’s continental shelf and EEZ, designated in a 2011 agreement between Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), the median line between Egypt and Turkey’s mainlands and a recent memorandum with Libya.”Over the past year Turkey has sent both oil and gas exploration ships, as well as military transport vessels, into Cypriot waters in the East Mediterranean related to expanded claims based on the Turkish occupation of northern Cyprus (since 1974), earning the condemnation of both Nicosia and top EU officials, who have defended EU-Cyprus’ interpretation of the conflict.

US carries out fresh massacre in Afghanistan, killing entire family with drone strike – A US drone strike in Afghanistan last Friday wiped out an entire family after they were leaving a clinic, including a woman who had just given birth to a child. Gul Marjan Kochi, the head of the local council in the Alisher district of Khost province, where the strike took place, told Pajhwok Afghan News that the attack was launched against a carload of civilians who were heading home from a local hospital after the birth of the baby. He said that three women, two men and the newborn were all slaughtered in the attack. The account appeared to have been confirmed by the director of the Al-Madina clinic whom Pajhwok reported saying that the family had brought in a pregnant woman Friday night and had been discharged at around 11:30 pm after the birth. He said that among those who were present was a nine-year-old girl. Only later did he learn that they had all been killed. Another account from Afghan officials said that the 25-year-old woman had been brought to the clinic because her health had deteriorated after giving birth at home, and that the baby had not been in the car. The horrific war crime came just a day after US President Donald Trump flew into the devastated country for a Thanksgiving photo-op with American troops, where he boasted about how much money his administration has funneled to the major military contractors and told the assembled military personnel at Bagram air base that “Victory on the battlefield will always belong to you, the American warrior.” The US president was compelled to fly into Afghanistan under a veil of total secrecy, in an unmarked plane fitted with a port-a-potty, with its lights out and windows shut and all cellphones dead. While there, he was surrounded by a convoy of heavily armed troops even while moving through the most fortified US base in the country.

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