Oil, Gas, And Fracking News Reads: 03November 2019 – Part 2

Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

Here are some more selected news articles about the oil and gas industry from the week ended 02 November 2019. Go here for Part 1.

This is a feature at Global Economic Intersection every Monday evening.

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ConocoPhillips Profit Beats Estimates— ConocoPhillips followed BP Plc in posting higher-than-expected third-quarter profit as the U.S. oil producer continues to boost shale output.The Houston-based company on Tuesday reported production of 1.32 million barrels per day of oil equivalent, less than the median of analysts’ estimates of 1.34 million.Key Takeaways:

• Conoco Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance is selling assets and fattening dividend payouts in a bid to turn around a stock that has underperformed the S&P 500 Energy Index. The stock is on track for its worst annual showing since 2015 after posting an index-leading result last year.
• During the conference call with analysts scheduled for later on Tuesday, Lance probably will defer questions about long-term strategy and drilling objectives until Nov. 19, when the company unveils its 10-year operating plan. An update on Conoco’s efforts to collect $8.5 billion from Venezuela as compensation for the seizure of oil fields more than a decade ago may be a topic of interest during the call.
• After years of cost-cutting, during which Lance and his team eliminated more than one-third of Conoco’s workforce, areas ripe for trimming may be getting harder to find. Investors will be listening for details on how the company intends to pay for rising dividends and share buybacks that are consuming almost $10 million a day.

BP’s third-quarter net profit tumbles 41% on weaker oil prices, weather impacts — Energy giant BP reported a 41% fall in third-quarter net profits on Tuesday, citing lower upstream earnings, weaker oil prices and maintenance and weather impacts. BP posted third-quarter underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, of $2.3 billion, versus $2 billion, according to data from Refinitiv. That compared with a profit of $3.8 billion over the same period a year earlier and $2.8 billion in the second quarter of 2019. The results show that the U.K.-based oil and gas company still managed to beat analyst expectations, despite a sharp drop in third-quarter net profits. Here are the key points:

• Underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, for the third quarter of 2019 was $2.3 billion, compared to $3.8 billion a year earlier.
• The third-quarter results, despite beating analyst expectations of $2 billion, represent a fall of 41% when compared to the same period a year earlier.
• A dividend of 10.25 cents per share was announced for the quarter.

“Overall, it has actually given us a strong set of underlying earnings but, more importantly, strong operating cash – which has allowed us to stabilize debt this quarter,” BP CFO Brian Gilvary told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Tuesday. Gilvary said that while oil prices were “pretty finely poised,” crude futures seemed to be stabilizing somewhere around $60 a barrel.

Exxon Mobil earnings drop 49% in the third quarter on lower oil prices — Exxon Mobil reported a 49% decline in third-quarter earnings on lower oil prices and higher costs. The results, however, did slightly top Wall Street expectations and the shares gained 3% in Friday’s trading session. Exxon earned $3.2 billion in the third quarter, down from $6.2 billion in the same period a year ago. Here’s how the energy giant’s results fared relative to Wall Street expectations:

• Adjusted earnings: 75 cents per share vs. 67 cents expected by Refinitiv
• Revenue: $65.05 billion vs. $64.79 billion expected expected by Refinitiv
• Upstream income: $2.17 billion vs. $2.36 billion expected from FactSet estimates
• Downstream income: $1.23 billion vs. $1 billion expected from FactSet estimates
• Chemicals income: $241 million vs. $223.6 million expected from FactSet estimates

The company spent $7.7 billion on capital and exploration expenditures, including in the key Permian Basin area. Oil-equivalent production rose 3% compared to a year earlier, reaching 3.9 million barrels per day. Liquid production and natural gas volumes also increased by 4% and 1%, respectively. The largest spike came from production in the Permian Basin, which grew 7% from the second quarter of 2019, and more than 70% year-over-year.

Chevron earnings drop 36%, more than expected – Chevron reported a 36% decline in third-quarter earnings as lower oil and natural gas prices offset an increase in production. Chevron earned $2.6 billion in the third quarter, down from $4 billion a year earlier. Both EPS and revenue missed the Street’s expectations.Chevron said that the average sale price per barrel of crude oil and natural gas liquids was $47 in the third quarter, which is 24% lower than the $62 average price per barrel a year earlier. The average price of natural gas fell 47% to 95 centsHere’s how the energy giant’s results fared relative to Wall Street expectations:

• Earnings: $1.36 cents per share vs. $1.45 expected by Refinitiv
• Revenue: $36.12 billion vs. $37.69 billion expected expected by Refinitiv

“Third quarter earnings and cash flow were solid, but down from our very strong results of a year ago,” said Michael Wirth, Chevron’s chairman of the board and chief executive officer. “Lower crude oil and natural gas prices more than offset a 3 percent increase in net oil-equivalent production from last year’s third quarter.”Oil-equivalent production reached 3.03 million barrels per day, which was a 3% increase from a year earlier.Included in earnings was a $430 million charge related to cash repatriation.In the same quarter a year earlier Chevron reported earnings of $2.11 and $43.99 billion in revenue. Last quarter Chevron’s profit rose 26.3% as the company increased oil and gas production.

Report: To meet climate-change goals, oil producers must slash production – – The world’s biggest publicly traded oil and natural gas companies would have to cut production by roughly a third on average by 2040 to meet the goals of the Paris climate deal, according to a new report. The opposite is occurring. Most oil and gas producers are expanding production in response to growing demand and the fact that the world is not on track to meet the Paris ambitions. ConocoPhillips would have to cut production more than any other energy producer (85%), while Royal Dutch Shell would have to the least (10%), according to the report by London-based financial think tank Carbon Tracker. The main reason: Conoco’s production, heavily dependent on U.S. shale oil and gas, would decline faster than Shell’s, and it then wouldn’t have low-cost projects to replace it with, according to co-author Andrew Grant. The group, whose funding comes in part from philanthropic foundations, analyzed different types of oil and gas projects, such as carbon-heavy oil sands or relatively clean natural gas operations, to reach these conclusions.It uses the concept of a “carbon budget,” indicating there is only so much more room to emit greenhouse gases if the world is to meet the goals of the Paris deal. That 2015 accord calls for a rapid reduction in emissions to keep Earth’s temperature rise below 2°C within this century. The report finds that coal is by far the worst culprit for climate change, but Carbon Tracker focuses more on oil and gas because of its larger role in the economy and financial markets.Rystad Energy, an independent research firm whose data Carbon Tracker used for this analysis, says the drastic decline in coal in the U.S. and eventually elsewhere is favorable to big oil and gas companies. “Thanks to the U.S. shale gas boom, coal is now being rapidly phased out globally,” said Per Magus Nysveen, Rystad’s co-founder. “This rapid relocation of carbon budgets among the various fuel types is favorable for the supermajors.” Much of this is predicated on a big if: if – or, more accurately, to what degree – the world meets the goals of the Paris deal. When planning future production strategies, oil and gas companies weigh the likelihood of that happening (unlikely, given the path society is on now), versus it not happening (more likely) and plan accordingly despite those two potential futures requiring vastly different amounts of oil and gas.

The UK once hoped for an American-style fracking boom. It’s not happening – The United Kingdom once hoped that fracking would unlock its shale energy reserves, enhancing the country’s energy security and creating jobs and new tax revenues in the process. That now looks unlikely to ever happen. Only three wells have been fracked in the country to date, according to a report this week from the National Audit Office (NAO), which monitors government spending. The UK government had been hoping for 20 wells by the middle of 2020. The NAO cites multiple factors for the slow start: Public support for fracking was weak to begin with and has dropped over time. The size of UK shale reserves remains unknown and the cost effectiveness of extraction has not been studied by the government. Even more dramatic, each of the three wells have caused earthquakes more powerful than the 0.5 magnitude threshold that requires a pause in operations, according to the NAO. The most recent was a 2.9 magnitude quake in August. According to the NAO, the government still believes fracking could help the economy. But as public pressure builds for more urgent action to tackle the climate crisis, fracking in the United Kingdom looks doomed unless new technologies to capture carbon emissions from burning shale gas can be developed fast.

Mexican Oil Hedging Desk Covered Against Downside Risk — Mexico’s oil hedgers, one of the world’s most-active sovereign oil-trading desk, has spent nearly $1 billion on options contracts to protect the government’s revenues from oil sales for 2020 against volatile price action, Reuters reported, citing data from the country’s Ministry of Finance.The news is especially notable because, as we reported last month, Russia is considering oil prices could drop to as low as $25 in 2020. WTI prices remain in a 12-month bear market from last October’s 76.90 high as oil products demand worldwide have dropped, as well as a synchronized global slowdown continues to gain momentum. Sources told Reuters that Citigroup Inc, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, NP Paribas SA, and JPMorgan Chase & Co are among some of the top firms on Wall Street aiding Mexico in building out the hedging program for next year. Reuters noted, “It was not immediately clear what volumes Mexico had hedged or what price protection it had secured. One Wall Street source estimated that the program was nearly complete while another put it at about 75%.” Mexican Deputy Finance Minister Gabriel Yorio told the Congress of the Union on Tuesday that the hedging program would enable Mexico to sell oil around the $49 level for next year, allowing the government to create a 2020 budget. Yorio faces a difficult challenge in getting the hedging program right. Tensions are soaring across the Strait of Hormuz, helping to stabilize oil at higher prices, but then there’s the global slowdown that is also weighing on demand and depressing prices. The former finance ministry official Julio Ruiz told Reuters that “this year, I believe they’ll do something similar to what we did back in 2017.” And if that’s the case, the 2017 strategy bought nearly $1.25 billion of put options to lock in export prices for the next year.

Brazil cleans up after mysterious oil spill spoils beaches -Brazil’s tourism minister said Friday (October 25) that beaches that were affected by the mysterious oily sludge that has plagued the northeastern coast of the country have been cleaned and are once again fit for tourists.Discussing the oil, Marcelo Alvaro Antonio told a news conference that “the very beaches that were impacted and cleaned are available for tourism.” Brazil’s government said Monday (October 21) that it had collected more than 600 tonnes of oil from its northeastern beaches since September 12.

Brazil braces as mysterious oil spill nears coral reef – Brazil’s Navy said Tuesday it is preparing for an oil spill to possibly reach one of the country’s largest coral reef systems, amid public outcry regarding the government’s early response to the spill. Adm. Leonardo Puntel said three ships are already onsite at the reef with another two on the way, and that a helicopter will be conducting flyovers. They will work to spot any heavy crude and, if detected, deploy divers to retrieve the masses of dense crude before they can contaminate the protected area. The Abrolhos Marine National Park, off the coast of Bahia state, is home to rare coral formations and is a popular scuba dive site. The mysterious spill started showing up on Brazil’s northeastern coastline on Sept. 2, and has now contaminated 254 beaches, mangroves and estuaries in nine states. Tuesday’s press conference came as prosecutors, environmental experts and some politicians increased criticism of the government’s response to the environmental catastrophe, claiming it was initially too slow and insufficient. Footage on local television in recent weeks has shown hordes of volunteers removing oil along the 1,300 miles of affected coastline, often without government oversight or equipment Carlos Nobre, one of Brazil’s most prominent scientists, said in an interview with the Associated Press that the government this year eliminated several committees and public bodies that collaborate with ministries to develop public policy. The committee that had drafted a national contingency plan for oil spills was among those cut, an error made evident in the wake of the spill, he said. “When the first of this oil reaches the beaches of northeast Brazil in early September, there is no committee: these people which were organized and could immediately have taken action at federal level, state level, private-sector level.” Nobre said. “No organization. It was a total mess.” Defense Minister Fernando Azevedo e Silva, also present at Tuesday’s press conference, denied any wrongdoing, and said the government acted as soon as the oil started showing up. The crude moves beneath the ocean’s surface, only becoming visible as it nears the coast, which makes it extremely difficult to track by satellite, plane or helicopter, Puntel said. He told reporters the Navy can’t predict where it will hit next or how long it will continue to pollute Brazilian beaches.

Brazil navy readies ships amid fears that oil spill could reach coral reef – Brazil’s Navy said on Tuesday it is preparing for the possibility that an oil spill reaches one of the country’s largest coral reef systems, amid public outcry regarding the government’s early response to the spill. Adm. Leonardo Puntel said three ships are already onsite at the reef with another two on the way, and that a helicopter will be conducting flyovers. They will work to spot any heavy crude and, if detected, deploy divers to retrieve the masses of dense crude before they can contaminate the protected area. The Abrolhos Marine National Park, off the coast of Bahia state, is home to rare coral formations and is a popular scuba dive site. The mysterious spill started showing up on Brazil’s northeastern coastline on Sept. 2, and has now contaminated 254 beaches, mangroves and estuaries in nine states. Tuesday’s press conference came as prosecutors, environmental experts and some politicians increased criticism of the government’s response to the environmental catastrophe, claiming it was initially too slow and insufficient. Footage on local television in recent weeks has shown hordes of volunteers removing oil along the 1,300 miles of affected coastline, often without government oversight or equipment. Carlos Nobre, one of Brazil’s most prominent scientists, said in an interview with the Associated Press that the government this year eliminated several committees and public bodies that collaborate with ministries to develop public policy. The committee that had drafted a national contingency plan for oil spills was among those cut, an error made evident in the wake of the spill, he said.

Mysterious oil spill could cost Brazil billions – Just as Brazil is preparing to hold what could be a blockbuster US$50-billion oil auction in early November, an oil spill of still unknown origin on more than 200 beaches along Brazil’s northeastern coast is raising alarms due to the government having been so slow to react with the clean-up. Fears of the government being inadequate in its monitoring of environmental disasters as domestic oil production continues to grow could threaten the nation’s offshore boom.Brazil’s Vice President has called the oil spill “unprecedented in the world”, and committed to sending 5,000 troops to help the worst affected areas.Environmental organizations, politicians, and prosecutors have criticized the government for its poor handling of the oil spill along the beaches in the state of Bahia. In some communities, residents have taken it upon themselves to clean up their beaches, tired of waiting on the official cleanup. Some of them, however, have gotten sick from exposure to the crude oil, whose origin remains unclear, Reuters reports. According to Brazilian Mines and Energy Minister Bento Albuquerque, the oil spilled on the beaches is not of Brazilian origin, “so it has nothing to do with oil and gas activity in Brazil, nothing to do with oil and gas auctions.”The chief executive of Brazilian state energy firm Petrobras, Roberto Castello Branco, said this week that the oil spill could be the worst “environmental attack” in the country’s history.

Brazil to seek damages related to oil spill affecting country’s northeast coast (Reuters) – Brazil will seek damages related to an oil leak off the country’s coast, the country’s solicitor general said Friday, referring to the crude that has washed up along thousands of kilometers of beaches, mangroves and reefs in recent months. Police on Friday said they were investigating a Greek-flagged ship allegedly responsible for the spill, which they say may has occurred about 700 km (420 miles) off the Brazilian coast between July 28-29, after the vessel made a stop in Venezuela.

Nord Stream 2 clears major hurdle as Denmark OKs gas pipeline – (Reuters) – Denmark on Wednesday gave the go-ahead to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, removing the last major hurdle to completion of the Russian-led project that has divided opinion in the European Union. The Danish permit was the last needed for the 1,230-km-long (765-mile) pipeline from Russia to Germany. The United States and several eastern European, Nordic and Baltic countries have expressed concern that the project, led by state-owned Gazprom (GAZP.MM), will increase Europe’s reliance on Russian gas. A U.S. Energy Department official said the project increases Russia’s grip over regional energy supply and threatens the security of European allies. “The United States will … examine all tools at its disposal regarding this project,” the official said on condition anonymity, though it was unclear whether tools such as sanctions could stop it. U.S. President Donald Trump, like his predecessor former President Barack Obama has opposed the project. The United States is offering exports of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to Europe to lessen its dependence on Russian gas.

A contentious Russian-led gas pipeline in Europe will soon exist – Here’s why it matters – The construction of a disputed natural gas pipeline in Europe will be completed within months, analysts told CNBC Thursday, despite fierce opposition from the U.S. and division in the European Union. After months of delays, Denmark’s energy agency announced Wednesday that it had given the green light to allow Nord Stream 2 – an undersea pipeline that will allow Russia to bypass Ukraine when delivering gas to Europe – to build its pipes in Danish waters.The decision comes as a blow to U.S. efforts to prevent the completion of the Russian-led project, after repeated warnings it will increase European dependence on Russian energy. Nord Stream 2 is a pipeline currently under construction from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea.The new pipeline will run alongside the already constructed Nord Stream and will double the amount of gas being funneled through the Baltics to 110 billion cubic meters per year. Estimated to become operational in early 2020, the pipeline is projected to cost 9.5 billion euros ($10.5 billion). Nord Stream 2 says the pipeline “benefits all of Europe, including millions of consumers in terms of lower energy prices.” But, many are skeptical about the purely economic reasoning attributed to the project. Earlier this year, U.S. authorities threatened sanctions against companies that take part in the pipeline, although there has been no sign the White House will follow through.In June, President Donald Trump warned Germany was making a “tremendous mistake” by relying on the pipeline, warning the project “really makes Germany a hostage to Russia.” The U.S. strongly believes Nord Stream 2 threatens the energy and national security of its European allies because it increases Russia’s control over the region’s energy supply. The White House is also believed to be keeping all options on the table as the pipeline nears completion. It is not just the U.S. that has expressed opposition to Nord Stream 2. Poland, Latvia and Lithuania – all of which share a border with Russia – are publicly opposed to the project, as well as France.

Russia May Delay Adopting Rules for Cleaner Ship Fuel – Russia, one of the largest producers of the world’s favorite ship fuel, may delay local adoption of more stringent rules targeting air pollution from commercial vessels. Ship owners and operators worldwide are preparing to switch to using fuel oil with a sulfur content of no more than 0.5% starting Jan. 1, when the new International Maritime Organization rules take effect. But Russia’s energy and transportation ministries are looking to postpone the stricter standards for vessels operating within the country and four other former Soviet republics until 2024, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in response to questions sent by Bloomberg. The new rules, known as IMO 2020, “will lead to a sharp hike in the price of fuel for the river fleet and river-sea vessels, which operate mainly in Russia’s territorial waters,” Novak said. The energy and transportation ministries are seeking “to prevent a higher financial pressure on the nation’s shipowners,” he said. However, Russia will comply with IMO 2020 standards in international waters, Novak said. The potential delay would affect the five-member Eurasian Economic Union, which also includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus and Armenia. Of the five countries, only Russia and Kazakhstan are coastal states. Russia’s delayed adoption of IMO 2020 rules would support the domestic price and demand for high-sulfur fuel oil, giving a financial boost to the nation’s refiners. Russia’s refiners produce about 16 tons of fuel oil for every 100 tons of crude they process, in spite of steps they’ve take to upgrade their plants. The delay under consideration would also free up low-sulfur fuel oil for export, possibly putting downward pressure on international prices for IMO-compliant fuel. A spokeswoman for the IMO said she was not aware of the organization receiving any communication on Russia potentially delaying adoption of the sulfur cap locally. The regulation’s enforcement is down to signatory countries — of which Russia is one — rather than the IMO itself, the spokeswoman said. There is an audit mechanism whereby a non-complying country can be issued with a “corrective action plan,” but punitive measures are not included. The IMO’s 0.5% sulfur limit applies to all ships, including those on “domestic voyages, solely within the waters of a Party to the MARPOL Annex,” according to the IMO’s website.

EIA projects that natural gas consumption in Asia will continue to outpace supply – According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019) Reference case, future growth in natural gas consumption is concentrated in developing nations – those outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) – especially in non-OECD Asian countries. Major non-OECD Asian countries include China, India, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam. EIA expects annual natural gas consumption in non-OECD Asia to reach 120 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by 2050, outpacing regional production by 50 Bcf/d. This supply imbalance widens through the projection period, resulting in non-OECD Asia’s increasing reliance on natural gas imports from other regions. China continues to be the largest natural gas consumer in non-OECD Asia: in 2050, EIA expects that China will consume nearly three times as much natural gas as it did in 2018. China’s projected increase in natural gas consumption is greater than the combined growth of natural gas consumption in all other non-OECD Asian countries. EIA projects comparatively less natural gas demand growth in the developed economies of OECD Asia (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea). EIA expects that natural gas consumption in Japan – currently the largest natural gas consumer in this group – will decrease slightly by 2050. OECD Asian countries are generally characterized as service-based economies with lower projected rates of population growth. EIA expects natural gas consumption increases in China because of growth in the country’s electric power sector. This growth will result from both increased demand for electricity and from natural gas-fired power generation that displaces coal-fired units. During the IEO2019 projection period, EIA expects that natural gas consumption in China’s power generation sector will increase by a factor of four to reach 7.3 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2050. Energy-intensive urban areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area and northeast China will favor natural gas-fired units and other sources of electricity that result in less air pollution compared with coal-fired units, according to IEO2019 Reference case results.

Kosmos Discovery is Largest Gas Find of 2019 – The Orca-1 discovery offshore Mauritania, announced by Kosmos Energy on Monday, is this year’s largest gas discovery, Rystad Energy has confirmed. “The deepest and largest discovery so far this year, Rystad Energy estimates Orca-1 holds around 1.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of recoverable resources,” Palzor Shenga, a senior analyst on Rystad Energy’s upstream team, said in a company statement. “This type of significant discovery, along with the projects lined up, could help establish the African nation as a major player and exporter in the industry,” Shenga added. The find lies in the MSGBC (Mauritania-Senegal-Gambia-Bissau-Conakry) basin, which Rystad Energy noted has grabbed headlines recently “thanks to a series of world-class discoveries” in Senegal and Mauritania. According to Rystad Energy, Mauritania and Senegal are slowly becoming “world class” LNG centers, “with three different planned hubs containing around 10 million tons per annum, including the Yakaar-Terenga hub, Tortue hub and the Bira Allah hub”. Mauritania now ties Guyana for the second most discovered volumes this year, trailing closely behind Russia with 1.5 billion boe, Rystad Energy highlighted. Kosmos Energy revealed Monday that a “major” gas discovery had been made through the offshore Mauritania Orca-1 exploration well. The BirAllah area situated Orca-1 well, which targeted a previously untested Albian play, exceeded pre-drill expectations and encountered 118 feet of net gas pay in “excellent quality reservoirs”, according to Kosmos. In total, Kosmos believes that Orca-1 and the original Marsouin-1 discovery well have de-risked up to 50 trillion cubic feet of gas initially in place from the Cenomanian and Albian plays in the BirAllah area.

New Norway Oil Grade Making Inroads in Asia – Norway’s new oil grade is making inroads in Asia, threatening to undermine sales of similar crudes from Africa and South America. China’s Unipec, at least one of the nation’s independent refiners and South Korea’s Hyundai Oilbank Co. have bought Johan Sverdrup for December delivery, said traders and refinery officials in Asia. The North Sea oil produced by Equinor ASA has been likened to Brazil’s Lula and Angola’s Saturno crudes. Oil with low-sulfur content is in demand ahead of stricter ship-fuel rules that take effect Jan. 1, while supply of medium-density crude has been tight due to the attacks on Saudi Arabia and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Johan Sverdrup has both of those qualities, and it’s also attractively priced, which may have lured refiners that are typically cautious about new grades. If Johan Sverdrup continues to gain traction it may jeopardize exports of its rival grades to the world’s top crude-consuming region. Angolan and Brazilian oil accounted for 10% and 8%, respectively, of Chinese imports in the first eight months of the year, according to government data. By comparison, Norwegian crude had a minuscule 0.04% share. “I have no doubt we’ll see a trend of more Norwegian flows to Asia, especially China, in the coming months,” said Sengyick Tee, an oil analyst at SIA Energy in Beijing. “Given the soaring freight rates and high Chinese stockpiles, Equinor will need to price it attractively,” he said, adding that the company has a strong presence among Shandong’s teapots. Shandong Qingyuan Group, a Chinese teapot, bought about 1 million barrels of Johan Sverdrup at a premium of $6 to $6.50 a barrel to Brent crude on a delivered basis, said traders who asked not to be identified as the information isn’t public. That’s around $1 a barrel cheaper than Lula and 20 to 30 cents less than Saturno, the traders said. Unipec — the trading arm of Chinese giant Sinopec — has bought two shipments of Johan Sverdrup for October loading, while Hyundai Oilbank took an undisclosed volume of the grade, the traders said.

Oil spill threatens rare dolphin’s breeding zone in Bangladesh – An oil spill on a river in southeast Bangladesh has threatened the breeding ground of the critically endangered Ganges dolphin, environmentalists said on Sunday, describing it as a “major disaster” for the mammal. A tanker carrying 1,200 tonnes of diesel collided with another ship on the Karnaphuli river near Chittagong port on Friday and spilled tonnes of fuel, port authority spokesman Omar Faruk said. At least 10 tonnes of diesel spread across an area of 16 kilometres, he added, but local media said the amount spilled was likely to be far higher. Environmentalists said the spillage posed a “serious threat to the marine biodiversity in the river”, particularly for some 60 freshwater dolphins who use the area as their breeding ground. Marine science expert Shafiqul Islam said it was a “major disaster” for the river’s dolphin population as they could inhale toxic petroleum vapours while surfacing to breathe. “The dolphins could experience both acute and chronic exposure through their respiratory system and through ingestion of contaminated prey,” he said. Karnaphuli – a key breeding ground for the dolphins – experienced a similar accident in 2016. The dolphin population is already threatened by nets used to catch fish and shrimp. In the past four years at least 20 dolphins died unnaturally – mostly through pollution – in the Karnaphuli and the adjacent Halda river. Senior port authority official Faridul Alam said most of the oil had been cleaned up, saying it was given “high importance” due to the dolphin breeding zone. Bangladesh banned ship movement in major rivers in the country’s southwestern mangroves in 2014 after a oil spillage occurred at the heart of an Irrawaddy dolphin sanctuary.

Oil Spill Causes ‘Major Disaster’ for Ganges River Dolphins Breeding Zone – An oil spill in the endangered Ganges river dolphin breeding grounds located in southeast Bangladesh has been called a “major disaster” by environmentalists, reports Agence-France Presse (AFP). A tanker carrying 1,200 tonnes of diesel collided with another ship in the Karnaphuli river near Chittagong port last week, spreading 10 tonnes of diesel across 16 kilometers, port authority spokesman Omar Faruk told the publication. The Department of Energy issued a fine for polluting the environment, reported local media agency Dhaka Tribune. The Marine Bulletin reports that as of Oct. 26 about eight tonnes have been collected. Around 60 Ganges river dolphins (Platanista gangetica gangetica) use the area as a breeding ground and could inhale toxic petroleum vapors when surfacing to breathe. At least 20 dolphins in the last four years have died of unnatural causes including pollution in the river and in the adjacent Halda river, reports AFP. The Ganges river dolphin is one of just three freshwater dolphins in the world and is unique to two river systems in India, Nepal and Bangladesh. A 2014 study found that their population has dwindled dramatically since their 4,000 to 5,000 population in the 1980s. Today, the total population is around 2,000 individuals,according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Declared by the government of India as a National Aquatic Animal in 2009, the World Wildlife Fund notes that the species is a key indication of ecosystem health but are largely endangered due to human activities. Ganges river dolphin habitat is one of the most densely populated areas in the world and is used for fishing. Individuals are often caught as bycatch after becoming tangled in fishing nets used for shrimp and fish. They are also hunted for meat and oil, which is both used medicinally and to attract catfish for fisheries. One of the biggest threats to the Ganges river dolphin is pollution. The WWF reports that the essentially blind cetaceans have likely lost a majority of their eyesight due to pollution in their home waters. “Pollution levels are a problem, and are expected to increase with the development of intensive modern industrial practices in the region,” wrote the organization. “Compounds such as organochlorine and butyltin found in the tissues of Ganges River dolphins are a cause for concern about their potential effects on the subspecies.”

Saudi Aramco to keep 4.6 mln barrels of oil in Indian storage – govt – (Reuters) – India will lease a quarter of its strategic petroleum reserve in Padur to Saudi Aramco to store about 4.6 million barrels of oil, a government official said on Wednesday, as New Delhi seeks global investment in its expanding energy infrastructure. Global oil producers are eager to gain a foothold in India, where fuel demand is expected to keep rising as the country’s economy grows. Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd, a government company charged with building oil storage, signed a memorandum of understanding with the Saudi state firm for its participation in the 2.5-million-tonne facility in Karnataka state. “Aramco has signed an MoU for only one compartment,” said HPS Ahuja, chief executive of the Indian company. The Padur storage facility has four equal-sized compartments. So far, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co is the only foreign company storing oil in India’s strategic reserves, at Mangalore, also in Karnataka. Last year it signed a preliminary agreement to use half of the Padur reserve. Ahuja said Aramco would have to keep some of the 4.6 million barrels for India’s strategic needs, but could sell the rest to Indian refiners. India, which relies on imports for about 80% of its oil needs, has underground emergency storage in three locations to protect against any supply disruption. The reserves can hold 36.87 million barrels. .

Cambodian oil: the dream that refuses to die — Block A — Cambodia’s most promising oil concession — is the dream that refuses to die. The concession’s Apsara field, if fully tapped, would help diversify an economy heavily reliant on garment exports — and increasingly Chinese investment. Like many of its neighbors in Southeast Asia, Cambodia has received billions in investments and loans linked to Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure push. Oil exports could go some way toward putting the country on stronger financial footing, including chipping away at a 12% current-account deficit. And once a long-delayed refinery is built, that may also ease imports of petroleum products. It has been a long road. Cambodia’s would-be oil sector has been beset by decades of setbacks as companies ranging from U.S. giant Chevron to Thailand’s PTT, PetroVietnam and China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) have come and gone. But now the government is pinning its hopes on Singapore-based KrisEnergy, trusting that the company will have the country’s first oil field on stream by the end of this year. Although Block A’s planned production will be initially modest, the government hopes it will be the first step in developing the sector. It has also restarted talks with Thailand over contested offshore fields thought to be rich in oil and gas, while a Canadian company is preparing to ramp up onshore exploration. Yet there is a problem. KrisEnergy — which in 2014 paid $65 million for Chevron’s controlling stake in Block A — is struggling to stay afloat, having recently been granted a three-month court protection to give it “breathing room” as it attempts to restructure its severe debt load. On Tuesday a chink of light appeared after it announced the sale of an Indonesian oil asset. The company said the sale was part of its strategy “to focus its limited financial resources on optimising operations at its existing producing assets.”

Oil trader Unipec resumes bookings of COSCO-owned tankers: sources – In one of the biggest sanctions actions taken by the U.S. government since its crackdown on Iranian oil exports, Washington imposed sanctions on Chinese tanker companies in late September for alleged involvement in moving crude oil from Iran. COSCO Shipping Tanker (Dalian), a subsidiary of China’s state-owned shipping group COSCO, was one of the companies blacklisted. This prompted Unipec, the trading arm of Asia’s top oil refiner, Sinopec, to make replacement bookings for shipments from the Middle East Gulf, shipping sources told Reuters in September. Concern over shippers falling foul of the U.S. sanctions sent oil freight costs to record highs around the world, adding millions of dollars to the cost of every voyage. Last week, Washington gave temporary approval for companies to wind down transactions with the designated COSCO subsidiaries. . One of the trade sources said the U.S. had held consultations with industry officials and had allowed for the issuance of general licences which would permit new chartering activity with COSCO tankers. It was unclear if this only applied to tankers that were not operated by the blacklisted COSCO entities. Refinitiv data on Tuesday showed one COSCO owned tanker Xin Pu Yang – owned by a subsidiary not affected by the U.S. sanctions – was sailing to Asia with a cargo of oil chartered by Unipec. A Sinopec spokesperson declined to comment.

Iran’s thirsty energy industry runs up against water shortage – (Reuters) – The plan to build a petrochemical plant near the Iranian city of Firouzabad had everything usually needed to get a project off the ground: approval from the nation’s top authority, funding from the Revolutionary Guards and plentiful gas feedstock. But a decade on, work at the site is only 10% complete because of a row over an increasingly scarce resource in Iran that is vital to keep the facility cool: water. “In early project studies, there were some mistakes about the amount of water the plant would need,” said Hamidreza Soleymannejad, one of the plant’s project managers. “They found the plant needs a lot of water, but the region could not provide that.” The fate of the Firouzabad plant is not unique in Iran, even though the nation has huge oil and gas reserves and is eager to expand output of downstream products which can more easily evade crippling U.S. sanctions on its vital energy industry. At least a dozen petrochemical, fertilizer and refinery projects, with combined capacity to produce more than 5 million tonnes a year of products, have hit the buffers or been delayed due to water supply problems, according to a Reuters assessment. The list was compiled based on reports in state media, direct comments from project managers involved in several of the delayed plants, traders, and details published by some of the companies or major shareholders in the developments. Reuters sought comment from investors or companies involved. Most did not respond to emailed requests, while two confirmed water shortages were a major issue. One denied there was any problem, although a trader with close links to the project flagged a lack of water supplies as a crucial factor.

Hedge funds looking for the low in the oil market- Kemp – (Reuters) – Hedge funds showed signs of trying to pick the bottom in the oil market last week, with small-scale purchases emerging after the wave of heavy selling at the end of September and early October. Hedge funds and other money managers were net buyers of 22 million barrels of petroleum futures and options in the week to Oct. 22, after selling 206 million barrels in the three weeks between Sept. 17 and Oct. 8. Portfolio managers bought Brent (+5 million barrels), U.S. gasoline (+4 million), U.S. heating oil (+9 million) and European gasoil (+3 million) while the net position in WTI was unchanged. The hedge fund community is still running a bearish position overall, with dynamic positioning, excluding passive longs, equivalent to 31 million barrels net short, but that was up from 53 million the week before. From both a positioning and a fundamental perspective, however, the worst of the sell-off in oil may be over for the time being, encouraging funds to trim short positions and start establishing fresh longs. By early October, hedge funds had become more bearish about the outlook for oil than at any time since just after the start of the year (https://tmsnrt.rs/2NjGzkn). The ratio of long to short positions, the most useful measurement of fund sentiment, had fallen to just 2.6:1, down from 8.7:1 in April and the lowest since Jan. 22. Extremely low ratios preceded waves of fund buying and big price rises in both late 2017 and early 2019; at least some managers seem to be anticipating at repeat.

Oil markets could face oversupply in 2020, the IEA says – Oil markets are expected to face excess supplies in 2020 due to a production boost amid weak demand growth, the director for energy markets and security at the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. “Overall, we will continue to see a well supplied market in 2020,” said Keisuke Sadamori at the Singapore International Energy Week. “Unless other things change, we will see a surplus probably, unless there is very strong demand growth recovery,” Sadamori told CNBC. In its latest monthly report, the Paris-based agency cut its oil demand growth figure by 100,000 barrels a day for 2019 and 2020. Oil demand is expected grow at a “still solid” 1.2 million barrels a day in 2020, IEA said in the report. Global macroeconomic concerns such as the U.S.-China trade dispute and the developments surrounding Brexit – the UK’s exit from the European Union trade bloc – are issues clouding the oil market outlook, said Sadamori. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and other producers including Russia, have implemented an output cut by 1.2 million barrels per day since January in a bid to support the market. However, oil supplies this year have been boosted by non-OPEC members such as the U.S. in shale oil production. Brazil and Norway will also produce more oil next year, said Sadamori. Meanwhile, demand in 2019 has been weak, amid weak growth in the first half and India demand growth slower than expected, he said. Growth in the second half of 2019 is being supported by a low base over the same period in 2018.

Oil Prices Break Winning Streak – West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil posted an uninterrupted string of day-on-day gains from Tuesday through Friday last week. The contracts failed to extend the winning streak to Monday. The WTI for December delivery lost 85 cents Monday, settling at $55.81 per barrel. The contract traded within a range from $55.58 to $56.92. December Brent also finished the day lower, losing 45 cents to close at $61.57 per barrel. “WTI started up a bit this morning, but then traded down,” said Tom McNulty, Houston-based managing director with Great American Group. McNulty pointed out that oil prices remain in a fairly narrow trading range. He noted that key drivers include ongoing speculation about the direction of trade negotiations between the United States and China as well as U.S. crude oil inventory levels. “If it looks like the U.S. and China will make a trade deal, we pick up a dollar or two,” McNulty said. “When U.S. crude stockpiles look like they are growing too fast, we drop a dollar or two.” Reformulated gasoline (RBOB) remained flat Monday. November RBOB lost well under one cent, settling at $1.67 per gallon for the second consecutive trading day. Unlike the above benchmarks, Henry Hub natural gas posted a strong gain Monday. November gas futures added nearly 15 cents to settle just under $2.45.

Oil falls on weak Chinese data, forecasts for U.S. crude stocks build (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Monday after four days of gains as expectations U.S. crude stockpiles will rise and worries about weak Chinese industrial data offset hopes oil demand will increase if talks progress on a Sino-American trade deal. Brent futures fell 45 cents, or 0.7%, to $61.57 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 85 cents, or 1.5%, to $55.81. Earlier in the session, Brent and WTI both climbed to their highest levels in a month, hitting $62.34 and $56.92, respectively. “The energy complex came out of the gate underperforming our expectations as it appears that another significant build in Cushing supply could be forthcoming,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois, said in a report. After building for three weeks in a row, U.S. crude oil stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for WTI, have risen by about 1.5 million barrels in the week through Oct. 25, traders said, citing data from market intelligence firm Genscape. Total U.S. crude inventories were forecast to have increased by around 700,000 barrels last week, according to a Reuters poll of analysts. Profits at Chinese industrial companies, meanwhile, fell for the second straight month in September as producer prices continued to slide, highlighting the impact of a slowing economy and protracted U.S. trade war on corporate balance sheets. Ritterbusch said the negative Chinese economic data was likely already baked into prices and was offset by optimism regarding the success of U.S.-Chinese trade talks.

Oil prices edge lower ahead of inventory data – Oil prices edged lower in quiet trade on Tuesday as concerns about slower economic growth overshadowed signs of a thawing in the trade war between Washington and Beijing, while investors awaited U.S. inventory data. Brent futures were down 3 cents at $61.54 a barrel by 0137 GMT, having fallen 0.7% on Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 9 cents at $55.72, after falling 1.5% in the previous session. Prices rose sharply last week amid a decline in U.S. inventories and signs of an easing in the U.S.-China trade war, but worries on Monday about weaker economic growth offset hopes of a rise in oil demand even if trade talks progress. “Investors are still giving more weight to weakening demand growth over tightening supplies,” ANZ said in a note. Total U.S. crude inventories were forecast to have increased by around 700,000 barrels last week, according to a Reuters poll of analysts, having unexpectedly fallen the previous week. U.S. crude oil stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI, have risen by about 1.5 million barrels in the week through Oct. 25, traders said, citing data from market intelligence firm Genscape. The American Petroleum Institute releases industry data later on Tuesday, while the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration releases inventory data on Wednesday. The United States Trade Representative is studying whether to extend tariff suspensions on $34 billion of Chinese goods set to expire on Dec. 28 this year, the agency said on Monday. U.S. President Donald Trump said earlier on Monday he expected to sign a significant part of the trade deal with China ahead of schedule but did not elaborate on the timing. Leaders of the world’s two biggest economies are working to agree on the text for a “Phase 1″ trade agreement announced by Trump on Oct. 11. Trump has said he hopes to sign the deal with China’s President Xi Jinping next month at a summit in Chile. The trade war has hit economic growth around the world and kept oil prices range bound for months.

Oil Down as Russia Throws Cold Water on Deeper Cuts— Oil declined for a second day after Russia said it’s too early to talk about deeper output cuts, casting doubt on the ability of OPEC and its allies to balance supply against a worsening demand outlook. Futures in New York fell as much as 0.7% after dropping 1.5% Monday. While the OPEC+ mechanism has shown its efficiency, it’s not infinitely efficient as there are still limits on how much each country can do, Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin said in an interview with Tass. Meanwhile, Genscape Inc. said oil stored at a key Oklahoma storage hub expanded last week, reviving concerns over sluggish demand and ample inventories. While crude is heading for its best month since June, it’s still down around 16% since late April as the U.S.-China trade war weighs on demand and American production keeps rising. Asian stocks rallied Tuesday on optimism Washington and Beijing are getting closer to a deal, but it’s unclear if a partial agreement that doesn’t roll back existing tariffs will have much impact on oil demand. “Russia’s comments signal that there hasn’t yet been an agreed consensus within the OPEC+ coalition on making deeper cuts,” said Will Sungchil Yun, a commodities analyst at HI Investment & Futures Corp. in Seoul. “This, combined with market expectations that U.S. crude stockpiles rose last week, will keep oil from pushing higher.” West Texas Intermediate for December delivery fell 30 cents, or 0.5%, to $55.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 7:57 a.m. in London. The contract dropped 85 cents on Monday, the first decline in five sessions. It’s up 2.7% so far this month. Brent for December settlement declined 22 cents, or 0.4%, to $61.35 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe Exchange after closing 0.7% lower on Monday. The global benchmark crude traded at a $5.82 premium to WTI. It’s also necessary to monitor how U.S. crude production develops at current prices, Russia’s Sorokin told Tass. American output has stayed at a record high of 12.6 million barrels a day over the past three weeks, according to the Energy Information Administration data.

Oil Prices End Day Mixed — West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent were mixed at the end of trading Tuesday. The December WTI contract settled at $55.54 per barrel, reflecting a 27-cent loss for the day. WTI traded within a range from $54.61 to $55.91. Brent crude for December delivery, meanwhile, eked out a slight, two-cent gain to settle at $61.59 per barrel. Overall, oil prices are receiving support from positive reports on the international trade front, said Bill Ebanks, managing director in the energy practice at AlixPartners LLP, a global, multi-industry consulting firm. “Prices appear to be reacting positively to news that the U.S. and China have been making progress toward reaching an agreement on Phase 1 of a partial trade deal,” Ebanks told Rigzone. “China represents one of the top three crude export markets for the U.S.” Ebanks added, however, that his firm expects further price escalation to be muted as a result of:

• Increasing U.S. crude production this year – from 11.7 to 12.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day – amid the lowest domestic rig count in two years
• Limited price momentum in the wake of September’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil processing center
• A high drilled but uncompleted (DUC) well count that operators are only starting to whittle down; the number of DUCs has decreased five percent since peaking in June 2019
• An oversupply of oilfield service equipment capacity and competitive pricing trends; it should take another two to three more quarters to fully balance the oversupply situation

Ebanks noted the above factors appear to be reflected in money managers’ cut of net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Oct. 22.

WTI Unimpressed By Small Crude Build, Cushing Draw – A weaker dollar and Saudi Arabia reportedly signaling support for trimming production further sparked a bounce intraday for oil prices but WTI ended the day lower.“We’ll need to wait until closer to the next OPEC+ meeting to really know the lay of the land instead of relying on preemptive headlines,” said Michael Loewen, director of commodities strategy at Scotiabank in Toronto.But, all eyes will be on inventories tonight after last week’s surprise crude drawdown and following the Genscape reports this morning“The Genscape thread running through the industry, that says we’re going to get a good build of Cushing, that kind of tanked the market,” API:

• Crude +592k (+2.5mm exp)
• Cushing -846k
• Gasoline +1.599mm (-2.5mm exp)
• Distillates +1.998mm (-2.4mm exp)

After last week’s inventory draw, crude saw a small build (less than expected) while products saw notable builds (against the recent trend of draws as refinery maintenance season may be coming to an end)…

WTI Tumbles On Bigger Than Expected Crude Build – Oil prices are lower this morning following API’s reported build at Cushing (confirming Genscape’s report) and not sustainably helped by stronger than expected US GDP data (perhaps not enough to counter the deteriorating global economy weakened by the trade war which has driven a 16% slump in crude since late April). DOE:

• Crude +5.70mm (+2.5mm exp)
• Cushing +1.572mm
• Gasoline -3.037mm (-2.5mm exp)
• Distillates -1.032mm (-2.4mm exp)

Shrugging off last week’s surprise draw, DOE data completely reversed API’s, reporting a 5.7mm barrel build (and a 4th straight week of builds at Cushing). Product inventories dropped for the 5th week in a row… U.S. refineries return to duty as maintenance season winds downs with crude output elevated in a complacent market, says Vince Piazza, senior energy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. US crude production remains at record highs as rig counts collapse…

Oil falls 1% as US inventory rises – Oil prices extended losses Wednesday after a steep U.S. crude inventory build added to worries about a possible delay in resolving the U.S.-China trade war, which has hurt global oil demand. According to the US Energy Information Administration, US crude inventories increased by 5.7 million barrels from the previous week. US inventories are now at 438.9 million barrels, which is about 1% above the five year average for this time of year, the EIA said. Brent crude fell $1.07 to settle at $60.52 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 48 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $55.06 a barrel. The United States and China were continuing to work on an interim trade agreement, but it may not be completed in time for U.S. and Chinese leaders to sign it next month, a U.S. administration official said. “Selling came courtesy of the fading optimism over trade and a Fed rate cut. Risk assets were dealt a blow as market players worried that the U.S. and China would delay settling their trade differences,” PVM analyst Stephen Brennock said. However, U.S. crude inventories fell by 708,000 barrels in the week ended Oct. 25 to 436 million, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 494,000 barrels, according to the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group. Still, crude stocks at the delivery point for WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma were up 1.2 million barrels compared to the previous week, dragging on futures prices for the benchmark. “Stocks at the WTI delivery hub have been trending higher since late September, which has put pressure on the prompt WTI time spreads, with the December/January spread this month having shifted from backwardation to a contango,” Dutch bank ING said in a note.

Oil falls 1.6% as inventory gain and weak Chinese data weigh – Oil prices came under pressure on Thursday from rising U.S. crude oil stocks and weak factory activity in China, with few bullish factors on the horizon. Brent crude futures fell 40 cents to settle at $60.21 a barrel, erasing earlier gains. They had dropped by 1.6% on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 88 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $54.18 per barrel. On the month, however, they are set for a rise of about 0.9%, its biggest monthly gain since June. The front-month Brent contract for December delivery expires on Thursday. The one for January delivery was also down. Factory activity in China shrank for a sixth straight month in October while growth in the country’s service sector activity was its slowest since February 2016, official data showed on Thursday. A protracted trade war between China and the United States has been weighing on the demand outlook for oil. Leaders from the United States and China encountered a new obstacle in their struggle to end the damaging trade conflict when the summit at which they were supposed to meet was canceled because of violent protests in host nation Chile. U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted a new location would be announced soon. A Reuters survey showed on Thursday that oil prices are likely to remain pressured this year and next. The poll of 51 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $64.16 a barrel in 2019 and $62.38 next year. Releasing third-quarter results, Royal Dutch Shell warned that uncertain economic conditions could slow its $25 billion share buyback program, the world’s largest, and had led to a downward revision to its oil price outlook. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates for a third time this year on Wednesday, looking to bolster economic growth with a move that could also boost demand for crude. Yet gains are likely to be capped until inventories start to show sustained declines. U.S. crude inventories rose by 5.7 million barrels in the week to Oct. 25, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, compared with analyst expectations for an increase of 494,000 barrels.

Oil prices decline on weak Chinese data, U.S. pipeline problems – (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Thursday after data showed weak factory activity in China, with U.S. crude facing extra pressure after flows out of the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub were disrupted because of reduced flows on a pipeline. Brent LCOc1 futures were down 38 cents, or 0.6%, at $60.23 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 fell 88 cents, or 1.6%, to $54.18. The front-month Brent contract for December delivery expires on Thursday. Futures for January delivery LCOF0, which will soon be the front-month, fell about 1.0% to settle at $59.62. For the month, Brent was on track to fall less than 1% and WTI to rise less than 1%. In the United States, TC Energy Corp’s 750,000 barrels per day (bpd) Marketlink crude pipeline from Cushing, Oklahoma, to Nederland, Texas, was operating at reduced rates, three sources said. On Tuesday, TC Energy’s Keystone pipeline shut after a leak in North Dakota. Marketlink is connected to the 590,000-bpd Keystone oil pipeline system, which transports Canadian crude from Alberta to refineries in the U.S. Midwest and the Cushing storage hub. The Keystone outage should dent supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for U.S. crude futures, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston. But WTI prices could still be pressured because of the Marketlink flows slowing. More than 9,000 barrels of oil were estimated to have spilled from Keystone after a leak was discovered late Tuesday, according to state regulators in North Dakota. In early trading, official data from China showed factory activity shrank for a sixth straight month in October while growth in the country’s service sector was its slowest since February 2016. A trade war between China and the United States has been weighing on the demand outlook for oil.

Oil prices stabilize, but set for big weekly loss amid trade gloom, rising output – Oil prices edged up on Friday after a difficult week, but were still headed for losses of about 4%, hit by a combination of rising global supply and uncertain future demand. Brent crude was up 9 cents cents, or 0.15%, at $59.71 a barrel, on track for a drop of about 4% for the week. WTI crude was up 22 cents to $54.40 a barrel with the U.S. contract was set for a weekly loss of more than 4%. Worries over global economic growth, along with oil demand, continue to haunt the market as the United States and China struggle to end a 16-month dispute that has hit trade between the world’s top two economies. “There’s renewed doubts about a U.S.-China trade deal… and at the same time we’ve had inventory lifts quite a lot more than expected at the crude level out of the U.S. this week,” said Lachlan Shaw, head of commodity research at National Australia Bank. The market received some respite from a run of poor economic data after an unexpected bounce in a private sector survey of Chinese manufacturing activity on Friday, which contrasted with dour results in an official survey Thursday. Japanese factory activity, however, sank to more than a three-year low in October, data showed on Friday, in a fresh warning sign for the world’s third-largest economy. U.S. crude inventories rose by 5.7 million barrels in the week to Oct. 25, dwarfing analyst expectations for an increase of just 494,000 barrels. A Reuters survey showed that oil prices are likely to remain under pressure this year and next. The poll of 51 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $64.16 a barrel in 2019 and $62.38 next year. A Reuters survey found output from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recovered in October from an eight-year low, with a rapid recovery in Saudi Arabian production from September attacks on its oil infrastructure offsetting losses in Ecuador and voluntary curbs under an international supply pact. Meanwhile, U.S. crude production soared nearly 600,000 barrels per day in August to a record of 12.4 million, buoyed by a 30% increase in Gulf of Mexico output, government data released on Thursday showed.

Oil rises nearly 4% on U.S.-China trade hopes, but sets weekly decline – (Reuters) – Oil prices rose nearly 4% on Friday on signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks and stronger-than-expected economic data in both countries, including U.S. employment and Chinese manufacturing activity numbers. Brent crude ended the session up $2.07, or 3.5%, at $61.69 a barrel, but notched a drop of about 0.4% for the week. West Texas Intermediate crude settled $2.02, or 3.7% higher at $56.20 a barrel, but fell about 0.8% in the week. U.S.-China trade talks are progressing well and the United States aims to sign an initial deal this month, top Trump administration officials said, offering reassurance to global markets after nearly 16 months of tit-for-tat tariffs. Beijing’s state-media Xinhua News Agency said the world’s two largest economies had reached “consensus on principles” during a serious and constructive telephone call on Friday between their main trade negotiators. U.S. and Chinese negotiators had made “enormous progress” toward finalizing a “phase one” agreement, although the deal was not yet 100% complete, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told reporters. “You’re going to get a strong reaction from what seems like a deal for now,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital Management in New York. “This markedly improves the outlook for the global economy – particularly in Asia where it has suffered the most from the fallout from the trade war.” Both benchmarks fell earlier in the week after a hike in U.S. crude inventories, especially at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for WTI, and as the trade war weighed on prices, fanning fears that slowing economic growth could dent demand for oil.

Will OPEC+ Declare War On U.S. Shale? – – Russia’s Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin this week told TASS in an interview it was too early to discuss deeper cuts. The news immediately ignited the not-too-dormant worry of traders that Russia could play OPEC and leave the cuts altogether – a not too far-fetched scenario given Russian oil companies’ general negative attitude towards the cuts. If the OPEC+ events from the last three years are any indication, Russia will not leave the cuts but may well use the meeting to politically maneuver. But it’s not just Russia. Nigeria earlier this month struck a deal with OPEC that will allow it to produce more oil even under a production cut regime. Reuters reported the news citing unnamed OPEC officials and noting that the decision was not made public. This development raises one important question: how long before other OPEC members ask for similar special treatment? Besides Nigeria, there are at least two OPEC members that want to boost their oil production: Iraq and Libya. Libya has been exempted from all production cut agreements so far and, as its National Oil Corporation chairman Mustafa Sanalla said in July, it must remain exempt from any future cuts as well. Libya plans to increase its oil output to 1.6 million bpd from the current 1.3 million bpd. Iraq is taking part in the cuts, but grudgingly, and it shows: OPEC’s number-two exporter has consistently failed to stay within its production quota. Yet overall compliance continues to excel because of the forced production declines in sanction-stricken Venezuela and Iran. So, the obvious question is how long and how much OPEC+ will decide to cut. But there’s a less obvious one that was put forward by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee: why cut at all instead of turning the taps all the way back to maximum production? Lee argued in a recent commentary that Saudi Arabia, for one, would benefit a lot more from a maximum-production approach than an extension of the cuts. U.S. shale oil growth is already slowing down because of international prices. If Saudi Arabia and its allies decide to reverse their price control approach, it will crash and burn. Of course, as prices crash so will the Saudi dream of a $2-trillion valuation for Aramco, whose IPO is reportedly scheduled for a couple of days after the OPEC+ meeting. This means the otherwise perfectly reasonable scenario put forth by Lee and others is unlikely to play out. What is most likely to happen is either a preservation of the status quo or an agreement to extend the current cuts further into 2020.

Saudi Banks May Lend To Saudi Investors So They Can Invest In Saudi Aramco -Crown Prince Mohamad bin Salman is once again making the rounds and unceremoniously shaking down his country’s elite – this time by asking them to commit to anchor investments in the Aramco IPO, one of the largest offerings ever. Aramco is the world’s largest and most profitable company, and the heart of KSA’s oil-dominated economy. For years, bankers in London, Hong Kong and NYC vied for the right to host the IPO.But with the IPO apparently about to move forward next week, the prospectus is expected any minute now. That will shed some light on the trading venue and whether KSA is standing by its demands that Aramco debut at a valuation close to $2 trillion.Whatever happens, the Saudi people will definitely benefit from the billions of dollars flooding into the oil firm’s coffers. But exactly which form these benefits will take remains unclear. That is, until Thursday, when Bloomberg reported that, in a gesture that would likely help reduce economic inequality in a country where most ordinary people rely on generous state economic benefit system, Saudi Arabia is eliminating borrowing caps on what banks are allowed to lend to local investors to allow more of them to invest in the IPO.The IPO market has been notoriously soft this year as a spate of young, untested and unprofitable companies debuted, only to be met by a punishing wave of skepticism. The trend culminated with WeWork, heavily backed by KSA via SoftBank’s Vision Fund, deciding to shelve its debut after a painfully public scandal. But as the country looks for new sources of money to keep the IPO afloat the worst come to pass, several lenders are seriously pushing the envelop, and asking the central bank for a much larger sum of money than the bank would normally be comfortable lending for such a speculative investment. Though the final amount will depend on the bank’s final decision, they’re expected to be more conservative the higher the valuation goes.

The Bombers Have Landed: B-1s Arrive in Saudi Arabia as Part of US Buildup — B-1B Lancer bombers landed at an air base in Saudi Arabia this week, marking a surprise return of the long-range bombers to the Middle East after they were pulled early this year. A series of videos from U.S. Air Forces Central Command and Air Force Global Strike Command posted on social media Friday showed the bombers taking off from Ellsworth Air Force Base, South Dakota — home of the 28th Bomb Wing — and landing at Prince Sultan Air Base. The service did not disclose how many of the non-nuclear bomber were sent, nor the duration of the aircrafts’ deployment. Additional details were not provided by press time. Earlier this month, the Defense Department signed off on a plan to send thousands more troops to act as a force stabilizer in response to Iran’s continued antagonistic actions in the Middle East. The U.S. forces deployed with two fighter squadrons, an Air Expeditionary Wing, two Patriot missile batteries, and one Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, known as THAAD. The Pentagon did not previously disclose the bombers’ presence. The Saudi air base has seen significant buildup from U.S. troops in recent months in response to Iranian provocations. Defense Secretary Mark Esper this week toured the base, and was seen standing in front of the missile battery as well as a number of F-22 Raptors from the 27th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Virginia, according to Air Force Magazine. The additive “Bone” deployment comes as the fleet has undergone extensive maintenance to keep the heavy bomber ready.

Saudi Arabia hosts its first WWE women’s wrestling match Saudi Arabia has hosted its first women’s wrestling match, as it takes steps towards relaxing strict rules on entertainment. The contest, in Riyadh, featured WWE stars Natalya and Lacey Evans. The pair fought in body suits and a t-shirt on top, in line with requirements for visitors to “dress modestly.” In recent years Saudi Arabia has attempted to shake off its image as one of the most repressive countries in the world for women. The government lifted a long-standing ban on women driving in 2018 and made changes to the male guardianship system this August, allowing women to apply for passports and travel independently without permission from a man. However, women continue to face numerous restrictions on their lives, and several women’s rights activists who campaigned for the changes have been detained and put on trial. Some of them alleged to have been tortured in prison. Thursday’s landmark match was part of the WWE Crown Jewel event which took place at Riyadh’s King Fahd International Stadium, which can seat 68,000 spectators. Former boxing champion Tyson Fury also competed, defeating Braun Strowman.

Death toll in Yemen war reaches 100,000 The death toll in Yemen’s war since 2015 has reached 100,000, according to a highly regarded database project that tracks the conflict. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (Acled), which tracks confirmed fatalities in the conflict and is seen as reliable, said the figure included 12,000 civilian deaths in directly targeted attacks. It said 20,000 people had been reported killed this year, making it the second deadliest year of the war after 2018. The conflict in the Arab world’s poorest nation began in 2014 with the takeover of northern and central Yemen by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, who drove out the internationally recognised government from the capital, Sana’a. In March 2015 a Saudi-led coalition launched an air campaign to prevent the rebels from overrunning the country’s south. The Saudi-led airstrikes have hit schools, hospitals and wedding parties, while the Houthis have used drones and missiles to attack Saudi Arabia and have targeted vessels in the Red Sea.

How Iran Used Google To Disrupt 5% Of Global Oil Production – Officials at Saudi Aramco believe that Iran used satellite maps from Google Maps to precisely attack the oil facilities in Saudi Arabia in the middle of September, a U.S. Senator who visited the Kingdom after the attacks said, raising concerns that no energy infrastructure is safe.Joe Manchin, Senator for West Virginia, visited Saudi Aramco facilities two weeks after the attacks. The U.S. Senator spoke to Aramco officials and shared part of his conversation during the North American Infrastructure Leadership Forum in Washington, as carried by the Washington Examiner.On September 14, the Abqaiq facility and the Khurais oil field in Saudi Arabia were hit by attacks, which resulted in the temporary suspension of 5.7 million bpd of Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production, or around 5 percent of global daily oil supply.U.S. President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Energy Secretary Rick Perry all blamed Iran for the attack. Saudi Arabia has also pointed the finger at Iran.Senator Manchin was shown a video of the missile attacks in Saudi Arabia, he said at the forum.The Senator asked a Saudi Aramco official whether the oil giant is concerned about someone working at the facility getting the information or the coordinates of possible strikes to hostile actors. “He looked at me and said, ‘If we thought that was a problem, we would be, but basically it’s all Google, Google Maps.’ He said, ‘It’s so accurate,'” the Senator said, as carried by Washington Examiner.The revelation that clear images on Google Maps can help terrorists target oil and gas facilities had Senator Manchin worried about the state of the U.S. energy infrastructure, especially natural gas pipelines. An attack on a single natural gas pipeline in the United States could lead to mass blackouts, Neil Chatterjee, chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), said last month, discussing America’s energy infrastructure in the aftermath of the attacks in Saudi Arabia.

Iran’s Khamenei Blames US, Israel For Sowing Unrest Through Lebanon & Iraq Protests – Clashes among various protest factions as well as with police have escalated in Beirut over the past days, amid nearly two weeks of mass anti-government demonstrations which have seen up to one million hit the streets, or up to 25% of the population, angry over widespread government corruption and as extreme lack of confidence in Lebanon’s currency and the central bank rises. The sheer size and intensity of the protests which has led to over 12 days of shuttered banks, schools, and public institutions amid gridlock and literal roadblocks, led to Saad al-Hariri on Tuesday resigning his post as prime minister, saying he had hit a “dead end” in trying to resolve the crisis. Western media reports have begun blaming Hezbollah for attacking anti-government protest camps in the Lebanese capital, after the group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah has grown critical of the mass movement, saying it’s being fueled by “foreign powers”. Others have blamed the violence, which involved stick-wielding men beating up protesters, on the rival Amal faction. Regardless, Iran on Wednesday joined in the blame-game, with no less than Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, weighing in with a series of statements slamming the ‘hidden hand’ of the United States and Israel for seeking the destabilize Lebanon and Iraq through protests which have gripped both countries. Khamenei went on a tirade in a series of tweets:“The biggest damage enemies can inflict on a country is to deprive them of security, as they are doing today in some countries in the region,” he wrote. “I recommend those who care in Iraq and Lebanon remedy the insecurity and turmoil created in their countries by the US, the Zionist regime, some western countries, and the money of some reactionary countries.” Likely the “reactionary countries” he has in mind include Saudi Arabia and its other gulf allies – long very active and with deep pockets in Lebanese politics.

Iraq suspends Saudi Arabian broadcasters: Al-Hadath TV – (Reuters) – Iraq has suspended Saudi Arabian state-owned broadcasters Al-Hadath TV and Al Arabiya, Al-Hadath said on Saturday, amid renewed anti-government protests that saw scores killed over two days in clashes with security forces and militia groups. “The Iraqi government suspends the work of Al-Hadath and Al Arabiya,” Al-Hadath TV said on its news ticker while it carried footage of the protests. Over 60 people were killed on Friday and Saturday.

Iran Foils Plot To Oust Iraqi PM In Latest Sign Of Tehran’s Growing Influence — Violent protest movements have erupted around the world in 2019, making it perhaps the most chaotic year since 2011, when the Arab Spring uprisings that swept the Middle East toppled several governments in quick succession. Though the Middle East hasn’t exactly been the most stable region in recent years, 2019 has been particularly troubled. After two years of relative calm, protests that started in Baghdad one month ago have spread across the country. Roughly 250 people have been killed in the chaos that has ensued. Meanwhile, over in Lebanon, a wave of anti-government protests has swept across the country, motivated by many of the same factors: The controversial influence of the Iranian government in local affairs, economic mismanagement and endemic poverty, and a political establishment that’s widely seen as corrupt.But in Lebanon, earlier this week, Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his cabinet resigned. Hariri said he had “reached a dead end” following nearly two weeks of brutal protests that have convulsed the tiny nation and led to bloody clashes with the militant wing of Hezbollah, which is the junior partner to Hariri’s party in the Lebanese government.Something similar almost happened in Iraq. According to an exclusive Reuters report, Iran stepped in to prevent the ouster of Iraqi PM Abdel Abdul Mahdi, who was reportedly on the cusp of being ousted by two of the country’s most influential political figures as the anti-government protests worsened.The two men are themselves political rivals: Populist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and Hadi al-Amiri, both of whom control Shiite backed militias. But a surprise visit by Qassem Soleimani, the head of the IRGC international offshot Quds Force intervened by asking al-Amiri and his Iranian-backed militias to continue supporting Abdul Mahdi. Several senior Iraqi officials have told reporters that Soleimani showed up at a secret meeting in Baghdad on Wednesday that was supposed to be run by Abdul Mahdi, according to Israeli newspaper Haaretz. Soleimani and many of the militia leaders who are loyal to Amiri raised concerns at the meeting that ousting Abdul Mahdi could weaken the Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella group of mostly Iran-backed Shiite militias who have allies in the Iraq’s parliament and government.

Major contraction in Iran is driving the Middle East’s growth slowdown: IMF report – The International Monetary Fund’s latest regional outlook report for the Middle East and Central Asia, published Monday, paints a picture of uncertain economies weighed down by global factors like trade tensions as well as internal and regional turmoil. Trade wars, oil price volatility, the risk of a disorderly Brexit and rising social unrest – and in the short term, a massive economic contraction in Iran as it buckles under heavy U.S. sanctions – are the biggest factors shaping the region’s outlook, according to the IMF. “The outlook for the MCD region (Middle East and Central Asia) is driven by a large contraction in Iran in the short-term followed by a rebound in 2020,” the report said. “The risks around the forecast are skewed to the downside and are highly dependent on global factors.” The IMF expects Iran to have a fiscal deficit of 4.5% in 2019 and 5.1% in 2020, and projects its growth to contract by a whopping 9.5% this year. The country of 80 million and third-largest OPEC producer has seen its currency go into free fall and inflation approach 40% after being hit by wide-ranging sanctions following the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. The sanctions have slashed Iran’s crude exports by about 80%, according to Reuters estimates. Broader international factors are also impacting the region’s growth, the report said. “The region is this year growing at a slower pace than last year. And this is due to the various shocks or factors that are affecting the output of the region,” Jihad Azour, the IMF’s director for the Middle East and Central Asia, told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble in Dubai. Azour said that oil importing countries should expect a growth slowdown from 4.3% to 3.6%, mainly driven by Pakistan and Sudan, while oil exporters – excluding Iran and countries impacted by war – should expect growth of 1.3% in 2019 compared to 1.6% the year before. “For the oil exporting countries, non-oil growth is gradually picking up thanks to the reforms that they have introduced,” Azour said. “Yet the overall growth declined because of the volatility and the slowdown in the production due to the OPEC+ agreement (to limit oil output) and the negative growth in Iran and Libya.”

Israeli forces storm Palestinian school in West Bank, confiscating mobile cafeteria – Israeli forces raided a school in the village of Dahr al-Maleh in the West Bank, demolished its wall and confiscated a mobile container that was used as a cafeteria on Monday, the head of the village council told Middle East Eye. Israeli forces stormed into the village at 6.30am, smashing through the gates of the primary school and breaking down its doors, Omar al-Khatib said. The Dahr Al Maleh Elementary Mixed School, located south of Jenin in the northern occupied West Bank, has been under constant threat of being demolished and has not been granted permission for any construction on its premises. Due to the lack of space, parents donated a mobile container for the school to utilise as a cafeteria and kitchen, according to Khatib. Israeli troops confiscated tools, a refrigerator, gas stove, cleaning equipment and stationery, he said. The school also known as “Tahaddi (Challenge) 17 School” opened in January, with Italian support. It has 38 students aged five to 15 years old and employs eight teachers. In November 2018, Israeli forces confiscated building materials during its construction period. In June, the Israeli foces took away a tractor and more building materials while the school was being further developed. Israeli authorities claim the school is outside the structural plan demarcated for the village, although its foundation is only 20 metres off the plan, Khatib said. “Israel issued a decision to demolish the school on 2 January, and the village lawyer succeeded in consolidating its decision,” he added.

The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestinian Christians that Nobody is Talking About – Palestine’s Christian population is dwindling at an alarming rate. And the reason for this is Israel. Christian leaders from Palestine and South Africa sounded the alarm at a conference in Johannesburg on October 15. One major issue that highlighted itself at the meetings is the rapidly declining number of Palestinian Christians in Palestine. There are varied estimates on how many Palestinian Christians are still living in Palestine today, compared with the period before 1948 when the state of Israel was established atop Palestinian towns and villages. Regardless of the source of the various studies, there is near consensus that the number of Christian inhabitants of Palestine has dropped by nearly ten-fold in the last 70 years. A population census carried out by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics in 2017 concluded that there are 47,000 Palestinian Christians living in Palestine – with reference to the Occupied West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip. 98 percent of Palestine’s Christians live in the West Bank – concentrated mostly in the cities of Ramallah, Bethlehem and Jerusalem – while the remainder, a tiny Christian community of merely 1,100 people, lives in the besieged Gaza Strip. The demographic crisis that had afflicted the Christian community decades ago is now brewing. For example, 70 years ago, Bethlehem, the birthplace of Jesus Christ, was 86 percent Christian. The demographics of the city, however, have fundamentally shifted, especially after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank in June 1967, and the construction of the illegal Israeli apartheid wall, starting in 2002. Parts of the wall were meant to cut off Bethlehem from Jerusalem and to isolate the former from the rest of the West Bank. “The Wall encircles Bethlehem by continuing south of East Jerusalem in both the east and west,” the ‘Open Bethlehem’ organization said, describing the devastating impact of the wall on the Palestinian city. “With the land isolated by the Wall, annexed for settlements, and closed under various pretexts, only 13% of the Bethlehem district is available for Palestinian use.” Increasingly beleaguered, Palestinian Christians in Bethlehem have been driven out from their historic city in large numbers. According to the city’s mayor, Vera Baboun, as of 2016, the Christian population of Bethlehem has dropped to 12 percent, merely 11,000 people.

Jordanian woman on hunger strike in Israeli prison is refusing medical treatment – A Jordanian woman held in Israeli prison has refused medical treatment as she approaches a month on hunger strike against being held in administrative detention, her father said on Tuesday. Heba Labadi, 24, is one of two Jordanian citizens arrested by Israel and put under administrative detention, a system that allows Israeli authorities to hold people without charge or the possibility of appeal for prolonged periods of time.Labadi’s father, Ahmed al-Labadi, told MEE that his daughter was arrested on 20 August on her way back from a relative’s wedding in the occupied West Bank town of Yabad, near the city of Jenin.Heba’s father told the Jordanian radio station Al-Balad on Tuesday that his daughter has refused to be transported to an Israeli hospital to receive treatment.“Her lawyer appealed to the court against the administrative detention, but we do not know if the appeal will be accepted,” Heba’s father told Al-Balad radio. Ahmed said that a list of charges against Heba had not been presented to her lawyer yet.

Lebanon deadlock remains after PM quits -Lebanese President Michel Aoun has asked the resigned government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri to continue on a caretaker basis until a new cabinet is formed, as security forces began opening major roads after two weeks of huge protests that paralysed the country. The army had asked demonstrators earlier on Wednesday to voluntarily clear all roadblocks to ensure that life returns to normal. The move came a day after Hariri announced the resignation of his government in a televised address to the nation, saying he had hit a “dead-end” in his attempts to resolve a crisis unleashed by the massive protests against the political elite amid widespread anger over years of economic mismanagement and corruption. Hariri’s announcement satisfied one of the main demands of the leaderless protest movement, which has brought together people from across Lebanon’s political and religious divides, but demonstrators pledged to keep pushing for deeper change. Analysis: What Saad Hariri’s resignation means for Lebanon (8:54) Still, with no obvious alternative to Hariri to fill the post of prime minister, which is reserved for a Sunni Muslim in Lebanon’s power-sharing system, there is no clear way out of the political crisis. In line with the Constitution, Aoun, who will deliver a speech on Thursday evening, asked Hariri to stay on as caretaker prime minister. The president is now expected to launch consultations with the leaders of political blocs in Parliament to discuss the appointment of a potential new prime minister.

Vladimir Putin is looking unstoppable after a string of victories that Trump handed to him on a plate – Vladimir Putin is on a roll. This week alone, the Russian president:

• Replaced the US as the chief power broker in Syria.
• Drew a NATO member, and buffer between Russia and Europe, close into his orbit.
• Showed global ambition by hosting all 54 African nations to sign billions in new business deals.

His deal to jointly patrol northeastern Syria with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, made on Tuesday, establishes Russia as a power player in the war-torn country. Putin is now a bridge between Turkish militants and Bashar al-Assad’s regime, and a guarantor of regional security. His renewed friendship with Erdogan has also secured for him an ally, and a useful buffer between the Russian heartland and European territory. As the only country straddling Asia and Europe, Turkey has long served as Russia and Europe’s middleman.Putin’s embrace of Turkey comes despite its membership of NATO, the military bloc former specifically to check Russian ambition.“NATO was formed to keep Russia’s former Soviet empire in check. Now, Russian military police have unrestrained access to hundreds of kilometers of NATO’s southern border, at the invitation of a NATO member,” CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh wroteon Wednesday.“That is something Vladimir Putin can only have dreamed of. Putin’s expansion into Africa – highlighted in this week’s first Russia-Africa Summit – has shown to the world a desire to cement his economic influence beyond his immediate surroundings. The Soviet Union used to have a major presence on the continent, but that has decreased since the end of the Cold War.“Whether it’s through diamond extraction or arms sales in Madagascar, or energy deals in Nigeria or Libya, the Russians are [showing themselves to be] an increasing force to be reckoned with,” said James Nixey, head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House.

Russia, the Indispensable Nation in the Middle East — Russia is on a roll in the Middle East. Russian airpower saved the Assad regime from certain defeat. Turkey and Israel must now accept the presence of Russian troops on their borders. Saudi Arabia has given Russian President Vladimir Putin the red-carpet treatment. And U.S. President Donald Trump thanked Putin for facilitating the operation to kill Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State (or ISIS). Throughout the Middle East, from North Africa to the Persian Gulf, Russia is ubiquitous, with its high-level visitors, its weapons, its mercenaries, and its deals to build nuclear power plants. Russia has gotten involved in this region as the United States pulls back from it – a trend that even the success of the Baghdadi raid can do little to conceal. The reemergence of Russia as a major power broker in the Middle East is striking not only in contrast with the United States’ erratic posture in the region but because for a quarter century after the Cold War, Russia had been absent from the region. But Russia’s absence, and not its return, is the anomaly. For centuries, Russia fought Turkey, England, and France for access to the Mediterranean, to protect fellow Christians under the Ottoman rule, and to secure a foothold in the Holy Land. For most of the post – World War II era, the Soviet Union was a major force in the Middle East. Moscow supported the Palestine Liberation Organization in its struggle against the “Zionist entity.” Egypt and Syria waged wars against Israel with Soviet weapons, help from Soviet military advisers, and occasionally even Soviet pilots. Soviet engineers and money helped build Egypt’s Aswan Dam. Then, in the late 1980s, the Soviet Union fell on hard times and rapidly withdrew.For the two decades that followed, Russia barely registered a presence in the Middle East. The United States grew accustomed to acting as the region’s hegemon – waging wars, dictating its political vision, and punishing governments that defied its will.

The Syrian Tug of War Is Still War Against Syria, and Russians Trust the Army More Than President Putin to Wage It – John Helmer -It doesn’t suit any of the sides in the US presidential campaign to acknowledge that the terms President Vladimir Putin agreed this week for the Turkish invasion and occupation of northern Syria to become permanent are not those which Russia’s Defence Ministry, General Staff, Foreign Ministry and Foreign Intelligence Service proposed instead. That’s too complex a point in the American political contest between President Donald Trump, his supporters and opponents. So complex, in fact, that Trump is gaining nothing in domestic job approval rating in the polls, as he intended his Syrian “troop withdrawal” and “save the oil” moves to achieve [4]. This is also too fine a point for the alternative media to concede in their competition for audience (and money) with the mainstream media. Both of them share the idea that Putin is the dominant decision-maker in Moscow. To alt-media writers and publishers, that’s a good thing; to the mainstream media that’s a bad thing, a very bad thing. The truth of the matter – the Russian political fact of the matter – is beside the point to both. American exceptionalists being what they are, rightwing imperialists and leftwing imperialists, Holocaust and climate warming deniers included, there is no room in the present American discourse for the facts on the ground. On the ground in Syria, or on the ground in Moscow. The big fact on the ground that’s being missed in North America is that Putin has agreed to another Turkish invasion of a neighbouring country. This was not Kremlin policy at the time of the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974. It wasn’t Kremlin policy last September when Putin and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed [5] on terms for the temporary protectorate of Idlib. In the run-up to the negotiations in Sochi on Tuesday (October 22), this was not the Russian policy consensus toward the Turkish invasion of northern Syria, nor toward the options for driving the Turks back where they belong. Half-measures are what turned out. In Russian strategy and politics, the outcome could have been worse, so half-measures seem to be better than pushing Erdogan back towards the US and NATO, as Russians believe to be his genuine preference.

US Boosts Troop Numbers in East Syria to Control Oil – With several hundred US troops already planned to stay in Syria to “control the oil,” US convoys are sending more troops into Syria Deir Ezzor Province from neighboring Iraq, and reinforcing the areas around the oil fields. Exactly how many troops are there, or how many were sent is not known. Pre