The Middle East Without America (Version 2)?

Written by Frank Li

In January 2016, I published an article under the same title (The Middle East without America? – Version 1). This is an update, triggered by this recent news story: Trump Orders Withdrawal of U.S. Troops From Northern Syria.

Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.

1. Predicting the predictable in January 2016

Below is an excerpt from Version 1 (The Middle East without America?):

America will forever be involved in the Mideast for one simple reason: Israel! Other than that, America, or American influence to be more precise, would soon be done and gone! Why? We have blundered so much over the past two decades that there is not a single true ally left for us (other than Israel), but a bunch of hatred against us! Who then will replace America as the major influence over there? Iran as the dominant regional force, with Russia and China as the major foreign forces!

It’s a no-brainer that Iran and Russia will dominate over there from now on (e.g. The solution to Syria runs through Moscow) …

Fore-sighted enough?

2. What has happened since January 2016?

Five major events with regard to the relationship between the U.S. and the Mideast:

1. January 2017: Donald Trump became American President.
2. May 2017: Trump arrives in Saudi Arabia in first foreign trip, clearly favoring Saudi Arabia over its regional arch-rivalry: Iran.
3. May 2018: Trump announces withdrawal from Iran nuclear deal, without a replacement, causing chaos not only regionally, but also worldwide. For more, read: Donald Trump’s Iran Policy Rides Two Horses at Once.
4. October 2018: Wikipedia – Assassination of Jamal Khashoggi. America failed in this real test, miserably! For more, read: Saudi Arabia: A Real Test for America!
5. Trump Orders Withdrawal of U.S. Troops From Northern Syria.

In summary, President Trump has tried to change America’s failed Mideast policy, only with more failures!

3. America’s failed Mideast policy

The Mideast is in total chaos for two main reasons:

1. Its own complication (e.g. cultures and religions) over the past 2,000 years, at least.
2. America’s failed policy, with the worst being the Iraq War, thanks to both Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama!

3.1 President Bush and the Iraq War

President George W. Bush recklessly launched the Iraq War in March 2003, at least partially, for the sake of his re-election bid in 2004!

For more, read: 9/11 Attack vs. Pearl Harbor Attack.

3.2 President Obama and the Iraq War

President Obama recklessly withdrew all American troops from Iraq by December 2011, just in time for his re-election bid in 2012. He was re-elected, but re-launched the war in Iraq in September 2014!

For more, read: President Obama and War.

4. Defending the indefensible against President Trump

President Trump inherited a very bad hand in the Mideast.

Like all his predecessors, President Trump is hopelessly trapped, throughout his term, in our flawed political system: getting re-elected ad nauseam!

Unlike his predecessors, President Trump patently hates wars and outlandishly projects himself as a great deal maker, although he obviously lacked relevant experiences prior to taking the top job in the nation. As a result, he has turned out to be a total disaster, not only at home (Defending the Indefensible against President Trump), but also abroad, especially on Iran (Trump halted military response to Iran because it was ‘not proportionate’).

The Mideast posts many challenges for President Trump. Three examples:

1. America’s MIC (Military-Industrial Complex) wants war. For more, read: The Evil Military-Industrial Complex.
2. Americans are tired of war, especially after two war Presidents (i.e. George W. Bush and Barack Obama). So, war is not an option for President Trump, especially if he wants to be re-elected (Tucker Carlson Has Reportedly Been Telling Trump Not To Go To War With Iran).
3. There is no easy way to end a war, especially for a first-term American President like Donald Trump, whose top priority is to get re-elected in 2020!

So, what has President Trump been doing with the Mideast?

He keeps fooling around, without starting a new war, fortunately!

For the real challenges behind Trump Orders Withdrawal of U.S. Troops From Northern Syria, watch the video at the end of this post.

5. Discussion

President Trump has made the Mideast worse, after inheriting a very bad hand! Three informative readings:

1. Middle East: Past, Present, and Future.
2. The Middle East ABC for Americans.
3. What’s The Real Cost of The Iraq War?

What about this latest development: Source: ISIS head al-Baghdadi believed killed in US raid?

It’s not a big deal, as hailed in America! ISIS is an ideology, which lives far beyond any of its leaders. For more, read: ISIS appoint new leader after al-Baghdadi killed in US raid in Northern Syria.

Bottom line: America has no solution for the Mideast, but keeps making it worse!

Here is a decisive mistake: by killing Saddam and destroying Iraq, America destroyed the triangular-balance equilibrium among Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. As a result, Iran, backed by Russia, will inevitably become the dominant regional power, out-dueling Saudi Arabia (and Israel), backed by the U.S.!

America, reform our failing political system, as I have suggested (American Democracy – Why is it failing & how to fix it?), or become a fiddle, second to China!

6. Closing

The Middle East will never be without America, thanks to Israel. Other than that, America would soon become irrelevant, with Iran, backed by Russia (and China), becoming the dominant regional power!

Now, please sit back and enjoy the video below.

.