Oil, Gas, And Fracking News Reads: 27October 2019 – Part 2

by rjs, MarketWatch 666

Here are some more selected news articles about the oil and gas industry from the week ended 26 October 2019. Go here for Part 1.

This is a feature at Global Economic Intersection every Monday evening.

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U.S. allows Chevron to drill for oil in Venezuela for three more months – (Reuters) – The U.S. Treasury Department on Monday renewed a license allowing Chevron, the last U.S. operating energy company in Venezuela, to continue drilling in the country for another three months through Jan. 22. The license has been a subject of intense debate within the Trump administration as it pursues a campaign to oust socialist President Nicolas Maduro. Its renewal represented a win by some in the administration, such as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who see keeping a U.S. company in Venezuela as an asset that could lead to a speedy recovery after any ouster of Maduro. Other Trump administration officials believe allowing Chevron to stay results in oil output that helps keep Maduro in power by allowing him to pay down debts. Several administration officials favor allowing the license to expire even after Trump’s hawkish former national security adviser John Bolton, who had been an opponent of the license, stepped down last month. Chevron executives “remain focused on our base business operations and supporting the more than 8,800 people who work with us and their families,” said spokesman Ray Fohr. The company is reviewing terms of the latest license.The renewal effectively adds no new restrictions, according to a review of past licenses. Chevron (CVX.N) has been in Venezuela for nearly 100 years and has about 300 direct employees there. Its joint ventures with state oil company PDVSA support about 8,800 people. The ventures produce the equivalent of about 200,000 barrels per day of oil, and Chevron’s stake in them recently averaged about 34,000 bpd, the company said.

Oil spill could be an act of sabotage- Brazil president– Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro questioned on Friday whether a far-reaching oil spill on the nation’s northeastern shore may have been a criminal act designed to harm a major oil auction scheduled for November. “Coincidence or not, we have the transfer-of-rights auction,” said Bolsonaro in a Facebook Live video, referring to an oil bidding scheduled for 6 November, in which an array of major oil players will compete for $26 billion worth of production rights in large offshore oil areas of Brazil. An oil spill is seen on Carneiros beach in Tamandare, Pernambuco state, Brazil on 18 October 2019. Photo: Reuters“I wonder, we have to be very responsible about what we say – could it have been a criminal act to harm this auction? It’s a question that’s out there.” Bolsonaro offered no evidence for his statements. Oil has been washing up on the shore of northeastern Brazil for two months, but its origin has remained a mystery so far. On Wednesday, Brazilian state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA said it had cleaned up some 200 million tonnes of the oil from Brazil’s beaches. On Thursday, the head of Brazil’s environmental regulator said tests had proved the oil was Venezuelan. He said that the cause of the spill was criminal in nature, as it would otherwise have been reported. He added, however, that Venezuela may not be responsible for the spill, even if the oil originated there.

Oil collected from Brazils northeastern coast rises to 600 tonnes (Reuters) – (video) Brazil has collected more 600 tonnes of oil from its northeastern beaches since Sept. 12, the government said on Monday, more than double an estimate of oil and sand collected by state-run oil company Petrobras. Oil has been washing up on the shores of northeastern Brazil for two months, but its origin has remained a mystery so far. More than 200 locations along the coast have been affected, threatening marine life, authorities said. Earlier on Monday, Petrobras said it had collected 280 tonnes of oil and sand from the beaches. Brazil’s government has said the oil spill is Venezuelan in origin, but has mostly stopped short of blaming their socialist government for the incident. Venezuela has denied it is to blame.

Thousands of barrels of oil are contaminating Brazil’s pristine coastline. Authorities don’t know where it’s coming from. – It washed ashore in early September, thick globs of oil that appeared from out of nowhere and defied explanation. In the weeks since, the mysterious sludge, the largest spill in Brazil’s history, has tarred more than 1,000 miles of shoreline, polluted some of the country’s most beautiful beaches and killed all sorts of marine life. But despite the time that has passed – and the damage done – the most important questions remain unanswered. Where is the oil coming from? And how can it be stopped?The Brazilian government’s apparent inability to answer even these fundamental questions has drawn more scrutiny to the environmental policies of President Jair Bolsonaro, who struggled this summer to contain the fires raging in the Amazon and the international outrage they sparked.Now, fury is mounting again. Municipalities have resorted to imploring volunteers to help with the cleanup. Videos of the rudimentary efforts – volunteers simply rolling up oil slicks and plopping them into trash bags – are going viral. And the environmental minister, Ricardo Salles, is picking fights online with a prominent nongovernmental organization. “Greenpeace ‘explained’ why it can’t help clean up the beaches in the northeast,” he said. “Ahhh, okay.” On Monday, Vice President Hamilton Mourão said the government had recovered 600 tons of oil – nearly 4,300 barrels. Mourão, a retired army general, said he would send 5,000 troops to northeastern Brazil to give “more visibility” to government efforts to control the situation. “This oil that is arriving now,” he said, “is the second wave of attack … This accident is unprecedented in the world.” Analysts say the most essential piece of the response remains missing: determining the source of the oil. “Think about in your life, if you spill a gallon of paint while painting, the first thing you do is pick up the can of paint before it empties and ends up on the carpet,” said Doug Helton, an official with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who has studied mysterious oil spills. “So if we don’t know the source, you’re picking up oil on the shore but don’t know how much more is out there.”

Brazilians rally to clean beaches amid outrage at Bolsonaro’s oil spill inaction – On Monday evening, Sport Club Bahia – one of the biggest football teams in Brazil’s north-east – faced its rivals Cearfl with black oil stains on their red, white and blue shirts. It was the latest sign of the growing outrage over a mystery oil spill that since early September has blighted a 2,200km stretch of some of the country’s most beautiful beaches – and the failure of President Jair Bolsonaro’s far-right government to handle the crisis. Nobody knows where the oil is from or why it keeps washing up on Brazilian beaches. Yet while social media has been bombarded by videos of volunteers rolling up thick globs of oil in sand and putting them into plastic sacks, Bolsonaro sought to blame first Venezuela, then a “criminal action” to scupper a major oil tender. He has repeatedly attacked environmental protection agencies as a “fines industry” and has yet to visit affected areas. “There is clear revulsion over the government’s inaction,” said Marcus Melo, a professor of political science at the Federal University of Pernambuco in the north-east. “The government has a certain myopia in understanding how serious this is.” On Monday, Bolsonaro’s vice-president Hamilton Mourão announced that 5,000 more troops will be dispatched to help clean up the spill, but for many Brazilians the response was too little, too late. Joel de Oliveira Filho, 57, proprietor of a guesthouse on Carneiras beach – one of the most famous beaches in the north-east state of Pernambuco – joined other local residents who started cleaning up oil with help from city hall employees. Nobody from federal government was there, he said. “People in the north-east are cleaning the oil from the coast with their own hands while the federal government is immobile,” he said. In nearby Bahia, volunteers organised the group Coast Guardians to clean beaches. It has 19,000 followers on its Instagram and has raised $4,800 online for protective gloves, boots and masks. “This is civil society getting organised. Our movement does not support any political party, we support nature,” said Miguel Sehbe Neto, 37, a company administrator from Salvador who runs one of its 20 beach teams. “What we want is an explanation and effective action.” Their team had help from naval personnel and environment agency staff when cleaning up two local beaches. But the government has not been able to map the slicks or stop them reaching the coast, he said – and many other beaches still need help. “We don’t know the size of the enemy,” he said.

Oil spill clean-up on Brazilian beaches making volunteers sick (Reuters) – Volunteers flocking to the Brazilian shore to clean up the mysterious oil polluting more than 100 northeastern beaches are getting ill from collecting the toxic sludge without the proper equipment, health authorities said on Friday. After oil slicks washed up beaches along more than 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) of tropical coastline, hundreds of people have turned out to clean the beaches, many using their bare hands and feet for lack of gloves, boots or even masks to block the fumes. “I had nausea and diarrhea the next day, and a splitting headache,” said Vera Lucia Silva, a local government clerk who said she and a friend collected 80 kg (176 lbs) oil with their hands into plastic bags on the Itapuama beach south of Recife. Silva, who ended up on a drip in the local infirmary, said local authorities provided no equipment and after two days several charity groups appeared and handed out masks and boots. The thick sludge has been washing up for nearly two months, and authorities and experts have been baffled by its origin. It is believed to be Venezuelan crude but there is no evidence of how it entered the open ocean.

Brazil says it will call on OAS to demand answer (Reuters) – Brazil’s environment minister said on Wednesday that the government will call on the Organization of American States (OAS) to demand an answer from Venezuela over a mysterious oil spill that has affected a large part of Brazil’s northeastern coast. Speaking in an official message broadcast on TV, minister Ricardo Salles insisted that the oil is Venezuelan in origin, a claim the Brazilian government has maintained for over a week. Hundreds of tonnes of oil have washed up on shore in many of Brazil’s northeastern beaches and its origins have not yet been fully explained.

Major pre-salt oilfields auction could raise some US$ 50 billion for Brazil — Winners at the Nov. 6 auction are expected to pay US$ 25 billion in licensing fees, plus share a portion of their production with the government An auction next month of oilfields in Brazil may be the priciest ever held, raising at least US$ 50 billion in licensing fees and compensation. Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and other energy giants are set to vie for deep-sea deposits that could hold 15 billion barrels of oil, almost twice as much as Norway’s reserves.Winners at the Nov. 6 auction are expected to pay US$ 25 billion in licensing fees, plus share a portion of their production with the government. In addition, bidders will need to negotiate payments to state-controlled Petrobras for investments it has already made in the area. Those payments could add another US$25 billion to US$45 billion in costs, according to reports in the Sao Paulo media.The auction is unique in part because one of the four areas being offered is already gushing more than half of the daily output from Venezuela. It’s a rare opportunity for an industry more accustomed to exploring riskier offshore prospects that can take a decade or more to develop.The offerings are at the heart of the pre-salt, a giant expanse of oil deposits about the size of Ohio trapped beneath a layer of salt under the Atlantic seabed. The four prospects — Buzios, Itapu, Sepia and Atapu — are estimated to hold as much as 15 Bbbl of recoverable crude, according to a study by Houston-based consultancy Gaffney, Cline & Associates.Buzios is already Brazil’s second-largest field by production, with output of about 425,000 bpd — at a time when Venezuelan production is running at 700,000. It has four platforms that are tapping about a dozen wells, with room for other wells to be drilled and the current ones to be ramped up further.Brazil’s federal audit court estimates the compensation to Brazil’s oil company could reach US$ 45 billion under proposed guidelines. It has recommended the government lower certain parameters like the estimated price of Brent crude to make the deals more attractive. However the court’s estimates and recommendations for the sale are confidential.The Brazilian Petroleum Institute, an industry group that represents some of the bidders, estimates the payments to Petrobras will be worth between 120 billion and 130 billion reais (US$29 billion-US$31 billion). A study by Wood Mackenzie Ltd. released Monday estimates US$24 billion. As for the licensing payments, the largest chunk of the US$ 25 billion will be due this year and the remainder in 2020, all in cash.

Brazilian Oil Giant Braces For Strikes Ahead Of $50 Billion Auction – Brazil’s state-run oil company, Petrobras, is about to get hit with a general strike action from a group representing no fewer than 12 oil worker unions, according to the group’s statement on Wednesday, with another 5 oil worker unions represented by another group also set to join in the strike, Reuters reported on Wednesday.The strike will go into effect on Saturday over Petrobras’ proposed annual wage hikes, which the group contends is lower than what the annual inflation rate is expected to be.The annual inflation rate fell to 2.89% in September, from 3.43% in August. The forecast for the annual inflation rate was 2.97%, according to Trading Economics.Labor unions in Brazil have been active this year, threatening to wage an all-out war that began in February against right-leaning President Jair Bolsonaro, whichlowered the minimum wage and closed Brazil’s Ministry of Labor arguing that in Brazil there was “an excess of rights” when it comes to labor.“You have to do away with unions in Brazil,” Bolsonaro told reporters in February. The strike comes not even a month before Brazil is set to hold what is expected to be its biggest oil auction yet, with as much as $50 billion expected in auction proceeds. The areas up for auction are blocks Petrobras have previously explored and held rights for taking up to 5 billion barrels from those pre salt fields. As much as 15 billion barrels could still remain, and winning bidders will have to make some sort of payment arrangement to compensate Petrobras for exploration it has already done in this area. These payments, which the winning bidders have 18 months to agree on, could net Petrobras anywhere from $25 billion to $45 billion.

Government summons fuel marketers over oil spillages – TO ensure that a safe petroleum transport system is sustained nationwide, the federal government through the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) is to meet with all relevant stakeholders in the oil and gas product distribution system in the country. The meeting it was gathered will give the relevant stakeholders ample opportunity to proffer solutions on the challenges and causes of poor petroleum haulage system in the country. Speaking in Lagos ahead of the 2019 Stakeholders’ Annual General Meeting (AGM), DPR Zonal Operations Controller, Lagos Zonal Office, Oluwole Akinyosoye, said all stakeholders including the Petroleum Tanker Drivers (PTD), Depot and Petroleum Product Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPMAN) and Independent Petroleum Product Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) are expected at the forum. Others are Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria (MOMAN) and Lubricant Producers Association of Nigeria (LUPAN). According to Akinyosoye, other issues on the AGM agenda include discussion on the root causes of tanker incident and other things to be done in DPR to further strengthen its processes, especially for the Lagos zone and Nigeria in general.

US-India energy trade: India’s energy trade with US to jump 40% to $10 bn in FY20: Pradhan, Auto News, ET Auto – India’s energy trade with the US is likely to jump by over 40 per cent to USD 10 billion in 2019-20, as the world’s third-largest oil consumer seeks to move away from its traditional suppliers in the Middle East, Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said on Monday.Mounting geopolitical uncertainties, rising US oil and gas production, and India’s insatiable energy appetite has created both the need and the opportunity for the two nations to lift bilateral energy ties to a new level. India in October 2017 began importing crude oil from the US and in March 2018 it got the first shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from there. In the last one year, the import of US crude oil has doubled and New Delhi is now closing on the biggest long-term LNG import deal. “In 2018-19, total import of crude oil, LNG and cooking coal stood at USD 7.2 billion. In the current fiscal year 2019-20, this may go up to USD 10 billion,” Pradhan said at US-India Strategic Partnership Forum’s Annual Leadership Summit here. In a short period, the US has become one of the top 10 sources of crude oil for India and also an important source for LNG. For the US, India is now the fourth-largest importer of crude oil and the third-largest for LNG. “Indian companies already invested in oil and gas assets in the US, and I see a growing interest among our companies to invest in gas assets in the US. In fact, the energy pillar has become an important component of the bilateral strategic partnership,” he said. While India sources about 65 per cent of its crude oil needs from the volatile the Middle East region, imports from the US have doubled to over 13 million tonnes this year. Pradhan said the rising US shale oil and gas production has had a calming effect on global energy prices.

China adds incentives for domestic natural gas production as imports increase – Rapid growth in China’s natural gas consumption has outpaced growth in its domestic natural gas production in recent years. China’s natural gas imports, both by pipeline and as liquefied natural gas (LNG), accounted for nearly half (45%) of China’s natural gas supply in 2018, an increase from 15% in 2010. To increase domestic production of natural gas, the Chinese government has introduced incentives for several forms of natural gas production.Natural gas production has recently grown in China largely because of increased development in low-permeability formations in the form of tight gas, shale gas, and to a lesser extent, coalbed methane. In September 2018, the Chinese State Council set a target of 19.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) for domestic natural gas production in 2020. In 2018, China’s domestic natural gas production averaged 15.0 Bcf/d. In June 2019, the Chinese government introduced a subsidy program that established new incentives for production of natural gas from tight formations and extended existing subsidies for production from shale and coalbed methane resources. This subsidy is scheduled to be in effect through 2023. In addition to the changes in the subsidy program, the government allowed foreign companies to operate independently in the country’s oil and natural gas upstream sector.Production of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane collectively accounted for 41% of China’s total domestic natural gas production in 2018. China has been developing tight gas from low-permeability formations since the 1970s, especially in the Ordos and Sichuan Basins. Tight gas production was negligible until 2010, when companies initiated an active drilling program that helped lower the drilling cost per vertical well and improve well productivity. Shale gas development in China has focused on the Sichuan Basin: China National Petroleum Corporation’s (CNPC) subsidiary PetroChina operates two fields in the southern part of the basin and the China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) operates one field in the eastern part of the basin. PetroChina and Sinopec have respectively committed to produce 1.16 Bcf/d and 0.97 Bcf/d of shale gas by 2020, which, if realized, would collectively double the country’s 2018 shale gas production level.

Marine fuel floating storage builds in Asia ahead of new shipping rules –(Reuters) – Stockpiles of low-sulphur marine fuels held in floating storage around the Singapore trading and pricing hub are steadily growing ahead of a 2020 global deadline for rules that have shaken the global oil refining and shipping industries. A total of 32 ships, mostly supertankers capable of carrying 300,000 tonnes or more of oil, are currently anchored in Malaysian waters near Singapore accumulating stores of IMO-compliant fuels on board, according to data released by intelligence firm Kpler on Thursday. Kpler estimates total fuel oil floating storage at 5.765 million tonnes and a total 4.455 million tonnes of compliant fuel oil in floating storage. A mandate by the International Maritime Organization requires ships globally to reduce the sulphur content in their bunker fuel to 0.5% from January from the current 3.5%, stirring up the global bunkering industry that consumes some 4 million barrels per day. To comply, most ships are widely expected to switch to burning low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) or to more expensive marine gasoil. Shipownes can also install costly exhaust gas cleaning kits called “scrubbers” that allows them to continue burning cheaper high-sulphur fuels.

Water company cuts supply to parts of Hanoi after oil contamination – After initially asserting that its water supply was safe, Viwasupco cut service to parts of Hanoi on Tuesday, affecting more than 250,000 families in the capital city.The Vinaconex Water Supply Joint Stock Company (Viwasupco) said that it has to clean its pipes and reservoirs after its water source was contaminated by used oil recently. It has not set a date for recommencement of water supply, according to Wednesday statements from water companies that receive supply from Viwasupco to redistribute it to households in Hanoi.A representative of the Ha Dong Water One-Member Limited Liability Company (Hadowa) said it would put its stations in full throttle to compensate for about 40,000 cubic meters of water now no longer available from Viwasupco every day.The Viwaco Joint Stock Company, which buys about 200,000 cubic meters of water per day from Viwasupco, said it would use water from reserved sources and send tankers to houses in the affected areas.Viwasupco provides 300,000 cubic meters per day for the entire southwestern part of Hanoi, including Thanh Xuan, Hoang Mai, Cau Giay, Ha Dong and several downtown districts.Around half of the capital city’s residents depend on it for their clean water demand.But for a week now, their daily life has been badly disrupted by a burned and pungent smell coming from their tap water. A truck with a loading capacity of 2.5 tons was seen dumping used oil into a mountain creek in Phu Minh Commune, Ky Son District of Hoa Binh Province, a northwestern neighbor of Hanoi on Tuesday last week, the Vietnam Environment Administration under the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment said Monday.The creek is on an upstream section of the Da River, the biggest branch of the Red River, which supplies water to Viwasupco’s water tanks.Tests of the polluted water found high levels of styrene, a substance that is probably carcinogenic. Hanoi authorities have said that people can use the water for other purposes like washing clothes and bathing, but should not drink or use it for cooking.

Kuwait Sees Neutral Zone Oil Pact With Saudis Within 45 Days – Kuwait expects to sign an agreement with Saudi Arabia to restart oil production from the neutral zone along their border within 30 to 45 days, according to a person familiar with the matter. The pact, reached after months of intensive negotiations, won’t be final until it’s signed, the person said, asking not to be identified as the talks are private. Khafji, one of two fields in the zone, can start production immediately, while the Wafra field will need three to six months, the person said. The neutral zone, which has been shuttered for at least four years, can produce as much as 500,000 barrels a day. Negotiations continue with the Kuwaiti authorities, but even if production resumes, the area would not add oil to global markets because both countries adhere to output limits that OPEC has extended into early 2020, according to a person familiar with Saudi thinking. Talks with Saudi Arabia continue and are “very positive,” Kuwait’s Deputy Foreign Minister Khalid al-Jarallah was cited as saying by the Kuwait News Agency late Saturday. When an agreement is reached, the countries will start talks on resuming production, he said. Officials from Kuwait Petroleum Corp. couldn’t be reached for comment. The neutral zone hasn’t produced anything since the fields were shut after spats between the two countries in 2014 and 2015. The barren strip of desert straddling the Saudi-Kuwaiti border — a relic of the time when European powers drew implausible ruler-straight borders across the Middle East — can pump about as much as OPEC member Ecuador.

Iran’s $280 Billion Sanction Skirting Scheme – Given that China has put its expansion into Iran on hold for the time being due to the backlash in Iran on the extent of such plans, Tehran is now looking at ways in which it can plug the initial US$280 billion that had been expected from China to develop its oil, gas, and petrochemicals sectors. As U.S. sanctions make direct investment by foreigners extremely difficult and also act as a brake on international investment flowing into the Tehran Stock Exchange, the bond market looks like the only fund-raising game in town for Tehran. The chief executive officer of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), Masoud Karbasian, said last week that Iran is looking at a range of such offerings and, following extensive talks with various senior figures in Iran connected to the Petroleum Ministry,OilPrice.com can now confirm to know what these options are. Although Iran is in no position to raise capital through a Western-oriented traditional bond denominated in a mainstream currency, its prospects in the global sukuk (Sharia-compliant) market are actually very good. This type of bond has often been used by Middle Eastern countries in the past when they have been uncertain of how a more traditional bond issue would be received by international investors for whatever reason and this is clearly the case with Iran. Targeting such a specialized investor base has the advantage that the pricing for sukuk is generally lower than for a traditional bond issued by the same country. “The appeal of sukuk is determined by its spread – nominal value – not against the usual benchmarks but rather against sukuk alternatives as well as high-yield bonds issued by Iraq, Mongolia, Kazakhstan and even Pakistan,” a London-based risk analyst told OilPrice.com. “However, U.S. sanctions have inserted a significant additional discount in the computation of yield, spread and spot pricing,” he said.Related: The U.S. Smashes Another Oil Export Record Part of Iran’s appeal to the sukuk investment community – which ranges from the U.K. (the first Western country to issue a sukuk), through Germany and Turkey (key European hubs for sukuk) to Malaysia (the biggest sukuk centre in the world) – is that it is a truly Islamic issuer. The investment universe of sukuk became a lot more skeptical of purported Sharia-compliant offerings during the financial crisis of 2008. The Accounting Auditing Organisation for Islamic Financial Institutions – the Islamic finance standards watchdog – said as long ago as February 2008 that the repurchase undertakings found in around 85% of apparently Sharia-compliant bond- and equity- fund structures that were based on ‘mudaraba’ and ‘musharaka’ principles violated the Islamic duty to share risk.

Hedge funds hold fire after two weeks of heavy selling in oil- Kemp (Reuters) – Hedge funds stuck with their existing bearish view on oil prices last week – leaving positions in petroleum broadly unchanged after two weeks of heavy selling at the end of September and the start of October. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of just 4 million barrels in the six major petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to Oct. 15 (https://tmsnrt.rs/33IESn8). The pause came after sales totalling 190 million barrels over the two previous weeks, according to records published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and ICE Futures Europe. Portfolio managers were small sellers last week of NYMEX and ICE WTI (-11 million barrels), Brent (-3 million), and European gasoil (-0.5 million), but small buyers of U.S. gasoline (+9 million) and U.S. diesel (+1 million). Hedge funds now hold just 2.5 long positions for every short position, down from a recent high of almost 9:1 in April and the most bearish position since the middle of January. Moreover, if passive structural long positions, which rarely change, are excluded, fund managers were running a dynamic net short position of 58 million barrels, also the most bearish since mid-January. The hedge fund community has become very pessimistic about the outlook for prices amid increasing concern about the state of the global economy and prospects for oil consumption in 2019/20. But with so much bearish sentiment already incorporated into the market, fresh selling dried up, which should ease some of the downward pressure on prices, at least temporarily. The large number of short positions that have been established has created the potential for a sharp rally if they have to be covered, but that depends on an improvement in the economic outlook.

Goldman Sachs says oil prices are going nowhere next year – International benchmark Brent crude is likely to continue trading at around $60 a barrel next year, Goldman Sachs said on Wednesday, in the absence of any “meaningful” energy market shocks. The U.S. investment bank said Brent crude futures had been caught between “worsening growth expectations and rising Middle East tensions” in recent weeks. But, despite apparent apathy in energy markets, the bank anticipated improving fundamentals would lead to higher prices over the coming months. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted some upside risk to its year-end forecast of $62 a barrel, as headwinds from U.S. producer hedging and higher recent freight rates fade. “Nevertheless, absent growth or geopolitical tensions escalating into meaningful shocks, we expect that Brent oil prices are likely to continue trading in 2020 around our $60 (a barrel) forecast,” Goldman Sachs said in a research note published Tuesday. “The ongoing OPEC cuts and slowing shale activity will offset rising other non-OPEC supply and moderate demand growth next year.” Brent crude traded at around $59.24 a barrel on Wednesday morning, down around 0.75%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at around $53.96, down almost 1%. In July, OPEC, alongside allied non-OPEC members, agreed to extend a 1.2 million barrel a day production cut for nine months. Ahead of a meeting in early December, the Middle East-dominated group is considering whether to deepen production cuts amid concerns of weak demand growth next year. Goldman Sachs lowered its oil demand growth forecast to 950,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2019, down from a previous forecast of 1.25 million bpd. It also reduced its forecast for demand growth in 2020 to 1.25 million b/d, down from 1.45 million b/d.

Oil prices fall 1% as global demand concerns grow – (Reuters) – Oil prices fell nearly 1% on Monday after comments from a U.S. official fed concerns surrounding the U.S.-China trade war, adding to worries that a slowing global economy would reduce demand for oil. Brent crude futures fell 46 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $58.96 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 47 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $53.31 a barrel.Although President Donald Trump has said he would like to sign a deal when he meets his Chinese counterpart at November’s APEC summit, the U.S. commerce secretary said an initial trade deal does not need to be finalized next month.“The key thing is to get everything right that we do sign. That’s the important element. That’s what the president is wedded to,” Wilbur Ross said, after being asked if he would mind skipping an APEC signing. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told reporters that the administration’s target is still to finish phase one by the time the APEC meetings take place in Chile on Nov. 16 and 17. He added there are outstanding issues to resolve.

Oil futures end near a 2-week low as investors fret about crude demand – Oil futures settled at a nearly two-week low Monday, as investors failed to shake worries that growing signs of economic weakness will eventually hurt demand for crude oil. West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery fell 47 cents, or 0.9%, to end at $53.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after the U.S. benchmark contract posted a 1.7% weekly decline. The November contract, expires at Tuesday’s settlement. Global benchmark Brent crude for December lost 46 cents, or 0.8%, to finish at $58.96 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, following a weekly skid of 1.8%. Both benchmark crude contracts finished at their lowest since Oct. 8, according to FactSet data. Markets participants have been digesting evidence that some of the biggest economies in the world are weakening, which could deliver a hit to overall crude uptake in the near term. On Friday, China’s National Bureau of Statistics released data showed slower-than-expected growth from the second-largest economy. Gross domestic product expanded at a 6% pace in the third quarter, the slowest in 27 years. On top of that, signs that some major producers aren’t adhering to production agreements are also weighing on sentiment. Russia on Sunday said that it failed to comply to its commitments in September to curb production, citing increases in natural-gas condensate production ahead of winter, Reuters reported. The current output pact between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to cut 1.2 million barrels a day runs through March 2020. Meanwhile, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia were having discussions to restart production in oil fields that they manage jointly, which could deliver some 500,000 barrels a day in crude, pressuring prices, according to Reuters. Back on Nymex, November gasoline settled at $1.6072 a gallon, down 1%, while November heating oil edged down by 0.3% to $1.9406 a gallon. November natural gas lost 3.5% to finish at $2.238 per million British thermal units. “A continuation of rising production levels along with storage levels reaching a surplus to the five-year average last week are factors likely helping to keep pressure on prices,”

Oil Rebounds On Rare Market Optimism -Oil prices edged up on Tuesday on reduced concerns surrounding both Brexit and the U.S.-China trade war. As with both issues, sentiment seems to shift by the hour, but at the start of the week, there were some small signs of progress on both. Earnings reports from Schlumberger and Halliburton show a hit to profits by the slowdown in U.S. shale drilling. Both oilfield services giants reported downbeat figures on the contraction in drilling in North America, while striking a more optimistic note on international activity. . Royal Dutch Shell decided to abandon two oil projects in Kazakhstan after determining that they were unprofitable. The move is a testament to the struggles of high-cost areas in the Caspian as well as the increased scrutiny by the oil majors on project economics due to investor pressure. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau won reelection, emerging with the largest vote share, but with a diminished block and short of a majority. That means he will likely form a minority government with another party, with the NDP the obvious partner. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has said that long distance pipelines should not be built through provinces that don’t want them, which may mean that the Trans Mountain Expansion faces new hurdles. “It’s pretty negative outcome from an energy-sector perspective,“ Tim Pickering, founder and chief investment officer of Auspice Capital Advisors in Calgary, told Bloomberg. “This is a very, very bad outcome for Alberta.” U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Monday that a trade deal with China does not need to be finalized in November, as was suggested by the “partial deal” agreed to earlier this month. The comment cut into hopes of a deal, dragging down oil prices on Monday. But President Trump contradicted that, saying the talks were on track for a November signing. Markets seesawed on the news.

Oil prices log first gain in 3 sessions after report OPEC will weigh deeper output cuts — Oil futures finished higher Tuesday and logged their first gain in three sessions, buoyed by a report that major oil producers will consider deeper production cuts when they meet in December.Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies will consider making further reductions to crude output when they meet in December because of growing concerns about a slowdown in growth for oil demand, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing sources from the oil-producing club.“It looks like OPEC is confirming that they are going to do whatever it takes to support oil,” The report also said OPEC member Saudi Arabia wants to first lift adherence to the agreement, as Iraq and Nigeria are among the countries that haven’t fully complied with the reductions, the report said. Under the output-cut pact, which began at the start of this year and runs through March 2020, OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day. West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery gained 85 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $54.16 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after falling 0.9% on Monday. The November contract, expired at Tuesday’s settlement. December WTI crude, the new front-month contract, settled at $54.48 a barrel, up 97 cents, or 1.8%.Global benchmark Brent crude for December BRNZ19, -0.17%, meanwhile, added 74 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $59.70 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, following a 0.8% skid on a day earlier.Crude-oil has been under pressure amid worries about global appetite for the commodity as economies inside and outside of the U.S. show signs of a slowdown. However, hope that the U.S. and China may strike a trade agreement soon has provided a tepid lift for crude prices. President Trump on Monday said Sino-American trade negotiations were progressing well, and his top trade negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, suggested that a draft agreement could be forged at the Nov, 11-17 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Santiago, Chile.

WTI Dips After Bigger Than Expected Crude Inventory Build — Oil prices surged higher today on headlines that OPEC+ might discuss extending or deepening production cuts during their meeting in December. “The biggest piece of news is that OPEC is considering deeper cuts,” said Josh Graves, senior market strategist at RJ O’Brien & Associates in Chicago.“I think that’s something that needs to be done.” But all the algos will care about tonight is inventories… API:

• Crude +4.45mm (+2.2mm exp)
• Cushing +1.988mm
• Gasoline -702k (-2.3mm exp)
• Distillates -3.491mm (-2.8mm exp)

Even after last week’s huge build, analysts expected another build as refiners remain in maintenance season, and for the sixth week in a row, crude inventories rose (+4.45mm vs +2.75mm exp) WTI hovered around $54.40 ahead of the API print, and dipped on the bigger than expected build…

OPEC, allies to mull deeper oil cut amid worries over demand growth – (Reuters) – OPEC and its allies will consider whether to deepen cuts to crude supply when they next meet in December due to worries about weak demand growth in 2020, sources from the oil-producing club said. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, wants to focus first on boosting adherence to the group’s production-reduction pact with Russia and other non-members, an alliance known as OPEC+, before committing to more cuts, the sources said. OPEC members Iraq and Nigeria are among the countries that have failed to comply properly with pledged output reductions. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have been delivering more than their share of promised cuts to stabilize the market and prevent prices from falling. Riyadh has been pumping some 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) below its output target, taking the lion’s share of the curbs. “The Saudis want to prevent oil prices from falling. But now they want to make sure that countries like Nigeria and Iraq reach 100% compliance first as they have promised,” one OPEC source said. “In December we will consider whether we need more cuts for next year. But it is early now, things will be clearer in November.” A second OPEC source said: “Of course deeper cuts are an option, but some things should happen before that. The rest of the OPEC+ countries will not cut deeply if Iraq and Nigeria don’t comply 100%.”

EIA reports a surprise decline in U.S. crude-oil supplies, the first in 6 weeks –The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that U.S. crude supplies fell for the first time in six weeks, down 1.7 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 18. Crude supplies were forecast to increase by 4.7 million barrels, according to analysts polled by S&P Global Platts. The American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday reported a rise of 4.45 million barrels, according to sources. The EIA data showed supply declines of 3.1 million barrels for gasoline and 2.7 million barrels for distillates. The S&P Global Platts survey showed expectations for supply decreases of 2 million barrels for gasoline and 3 million barrels for distillates. December West Texas Intermediate crude added 53 cents, or 1%, to $55.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up from $54.55 before the supply data.

WTI Surges Back Above $55 After Surprise Crude Inventory Draw – After sliding overnight on the heels of a significant crude build reported by API, oil prices have surged since the US equity market open soaring back to pre-API levels (some have suggested the gains are driven by Kuwait, OPEC’s fourth-biggest member, considering cuts to its oil production capacity targets.)“We are waiting to see when refineries come out of maintenance. As they come out, it should start to increase demand for crude,” says Gene McGillian, manager of market research at Tradition EnergyBut, while refinery maintenance is starting to wind down, lots of capacity was still offline during the reporting period. DOE:

• Crude -1.70mm (+2.2mm exp)
• Cushing +1.506mm
• Gasoline -3.107mm (-2.3mm exp)
• Distillates -2.715mm (-2.8mm exp)

Analysts continued to expect crude inventories to rise even after last week’s massive build, but unlike API, DOE reported a surprise 1.7mm draw – ending the 5-week streak of builds. Additionally, major draws in products were bigger than expected…

Oil surges 2.7% on surprise US inventory decline – Oil rose 2.7% on Wednesday after government data showed a surprise draw in U.S. crude stocks and as the prospect of deeper output cuts by OPEC and its allies offered support. U.S. crude stocks fell 1.7 million barrels last week as refineries hiked crude runs by 429,000 barrels per day (bpd) and oil imports fell, the Energy Information Administration said. Analysts had expected an increase of 2.2 million barrels. Brent crude futures gained $1.39, or 2.3%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.49, or 2.7%, to settle at $55.97 per barrel. Oil prices had fallen earlier in the session on data on Tuesday from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showing U.S. crude stocks rising more than analysts had expected, by 4.5 million barrels to 437 million barrels. The EIA’s report “has put some buyers in the market, but it will be interesting to see if it lasts. While this will distract from demand destruction, the market will eventually come back to it,” said Gene McGillian, vice president of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. The draw in U.S. oil stocks appeared to have been caused by temporary market factors including higher refinery runs, rather than a fundamental firming of oil demand, and investors are still concerned about the global economy following reports of slowing growth in China and Europe, McGillian added. A larger-than-expected decline in U.S. gasoline stocks and lower net oil imports also supported prices, analysts said. Gasoline stocks fell by 3.1 million barrels, compared with analysts expectations of a 2.3 million-barrel drop.

Oil Prices Surge on Unexpected Bullish Data – West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent oil futures surged Wednesday after the U.S. government released bullish week-on-week commercial crude inventory figures. “Petroleum markets had a somewhat muted response to the weekly American Petroleum Institute (API) report on Tuesday afternoon and stayed that way until the weekly U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) report was released showing an overall draw in crude stocks rather than the build that API had shown,” said Steve Blair, senior account executive with the RCG Divison of Marex Spectron.As a Bloomberg article posted to Rigzone earlier Wednesday notes, API figures show that U.S. oil inventories increased by 4.45 million barrels last week. Meanwhile, the DOE’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 1.7-million-barrel draw for the period.“The markets showed immediate reaction to the upside and continued that reaction as the session continued into the afternoon,” noted Blair. “A closer look at the (EIA) report showed exports of crude at a new record 3.683 million barrels per day (bpd) and crude imports falling below the 6 million-bpd mark at 5.857 million bpd. Gasoline demand continues to be quite high for this time of year at 9.59 million bpd.”The December WTI contract gained $1.49 Wednesday, settling at $55.97 per barrel. It traded within a range from $54.30 to $56.07.“December WTI, with the upside movement today, broke out of the congestion range that it had been in since the market declined back to the original levels that they were at prior to the attack on the Saudi facilities back in September,” said Blair, citing a daily WTI price chart. Brent crude for December delivery returned above the psychologically important $60-mark, gaining $1.47 to end the day at $61.17 per barrel. Blair noted the Brent, like the WTI, broke out of its congestion range; the right end of the daily Brent chart illustrates the price movement. Also rising Wednesday was reformulated gasoline (RBOB). November RBOB added four cents to settle at $1.65 per gallon. Blair pointed out crack spreads continue to lead the petroleum complex despite declining since last week, referencing a chart showing the differential between RBOB and the WTI.

Oil posts 3rd straight day of gains – Oil prices extended their gains on Thursday, with Brent rising above $61 a barrel as a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories and the prospect of further market-supporting action by OPEC and its allies offset some concern over the outlook for demand. Brent crude gained 55 cents to settle at $61.74 per barrel, having risen 2.5% on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 26 cents to settle at $56.23, adding to the previous session’s 2.8% gain after data showed that U.S. inventories dropped by 1.7 million barrels last week. “We feel that even minor supportive headlines on the trade front or geopolitical developments could prompt an exaggerated price response in a market in which net speculative WTI length had dropped into the red zone,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, said in a note. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence on Thursday accused China of curtailing “rights and liberties” in Hong Kong in a wide-ranging critique of Beijing’s behavior but also insisted that the United States does not seek confrontation or to “de-couple” from its main economic rival. Pence delivered his second major policy address on China in just over a year, this one just ahead of a new round of talks aimed at resolving a bitter trade war between the world’s two biggest economies. The recent truce in the U.S.-China trade war is not an economic turning point and has done nothing to reduce the risk that the United States could slip into recession in the next two years, a Reuters poll of economists found.

Oil prices clock strong weekly gains on trade hopes, crude supply – (Reuters) – Oil prices rose on Friday, registering the strongest weekly gains in more than a month as support from optimism over a U.S.-China trade deal, falling U.S. crude stocks and possible action from OPEC to extend output cuts outweighed broader economic concerns. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled 43 cents, or 0.8%, higher at $56.66 a barrel, clocking a weekly rise of more than 5%, its strongest since June 21. Brent crude ended 35 cents, or 0.6%, higher at $62.02 a barrel, logging a weekly gain of more than 4%, its best since Sept. 20. Oil got a boost from signs of progress in talks on resolving the U.S.-China trade dispute that has weighed on crude demand. Washington officials on Friday said the United States and China were close to finalizing the first part of a trade deal after months of a tariff war. “Some of the vibes out of the U.S.-China talks are positive again and that’s certainly what’s fuelling the stock market, so oil is benefiting from it,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. Wall Street, which oil prices often follow, approached a record high after the trade comments from Washington. The weekly performance was underpinned by the surprise drop in U.S. inventories, with crude stocks falling by about 1.7 million barrels last week.

Saudi Aramco to Delay IPO Launch— Saudi Aramco has postponed the launch of the world’s largest initial public offering, according to a person briefed on the situation. That may put the oil giant’s planned November listing in jeopardy. The decision to delay the listing was abrupt. Aramco was preparing for an official launch of the share sale on Oct. 20. The Saudi government had seemed determined to press on in the face of potential headwinds that include weak oil prices, a slowing world economy and last month’s attack on the company’s biggest processing plant. While details of the offer haven’t been made public, people involved in the transaction said earlier this month that about 2% of Aramco might be sold at a price that would value the entire company at $2 trillion, raising $40 billion and easily exceeding the $25 billion raised in 2014 by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. The shares were set to trade only on Riyadh’s stock exchange, the Tadawul. The Sept. 14 attack disrupted output and sent shock waves through energy markets, triggering the biggest one-day jump in Brent crude prices on record and stoking security concerrns Investors are already demanding a premium to hold the country’s debt, downgraded this month by Fitch Ratings Ltd. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s desire to get a $2 trillion valuation for the energy giant comes as analysts slash their earnings-per-share estimates for Saudi companies for the coming 12 months. They have cut them by 13% this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Aramco wants to delay the IPO’s launch until it can give investors more clarity on its quarterly earnings following the attack, the Financial Times reported earlier.

Saudi’s Aramco IPO Is Mission Impossible – Once again reports are out that Saudi Aramco is said to be pushing its mammoth IPO top completed by the end of this year (reportedly relying more on Saudi and MidEast regional investors). The kickoff, originally scheduled for Oct. 20, was delayed after Aramco got mixed feedback from international investors. Bloomberg reports that Aramco now plans to press on with the listing plans by relying more on investors from Saudi Arabia and other parts of the Middle East to buy its shares, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. But, as S&P Global Platts Insight blog notes, Saudi Aramco’s IPO looks doomed to failure as it targets a $2 trillion flotation. Tepid oil prices, the fraught politics of the Middle East and the demonization of fossil fuel producers in response to climate change fears have all made the initial public offering (IPO) a mission impossible.The kingdom had looked poised to list up to 2% of its shares on its domestic market within weeks. But the long-delayed partial privatization of the world’s largest state-owned oil company now faces another indefinite postponement after the devastating attacks last month on some of its most important facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia.Overnight, the attacks shut down 5.7 million barrels per day of Saudi Arabia’s oil production, roughly equivalent to 6% of global supply. A catastrophic spike in oil prices was only narrowly avoided because of the kingdom’s own emergency stockpiles, and its swift response in patching up the damage and restoring output in record time. But this has come at a high price to Aramco, which potential investors will want to see accounted for before paying any kind of premium for its shares in an IPO. It is a level of detail which the normally secretive Aramco is probably uncomfortable to reveal. In August, Aramco for the first time gave potential investors a glimpse of its first-half earnings. Net income of almost $50 billion made it comfortably the world’s most profitable company. However, the cost of repairs at Abqaiq and the inconvenience caused by the attacks will be an ugly blemish on its otherwise pristine balance sheet.

Aramco IPO Hangs on Same Old Question: Is It Worth $2 Trillion? – Bloomberg – The trouble with Saudi Aramco’s off-again, on-again initial public offering has always been the valuation. Ever since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman insisted the world’s largest oil producer was worth $2 trillion in 2016, he’s been determined to prove the skeptics wrong. His optimism met the reality of the global capital markets on Thursday, when the latest plan to float the state-owned company was delayed by at least a few weeks. At a meeting to give a green light for a deal, bankers made clear that international investors had little appetite to buy at a $2 trillion valuation, according to people familiar with the matter. To draw widespread interest Aramco’s value would need to be closer to $1.5 trillion, one of the people said, asking not to named discussing private conversations. What happens now will depend on how keen the crown prince is to attract foreign money to the Aramco offering and whether he’s finally willing to compromise on the valuation to get it. The outlook for what could be the largest IPO ever is likely to dominate Future Investment Initiative at the end of the month, Saudi Arabia’s annual showcase for the crown prince’s economic agenda that’s been dubbed Davos in the Desert. Many of the Wall Street banks hired to work on the IPO will send senior executives to Riyadh, where they’ll rub shoulders with the crown prince and the rest of the Saudi leadership as well as some of the world’s largest investors. Aramco said in a statement that the timing of the IPO will depend on market conditions and that it continues to engage with shareholders on activities related to the listing.

Aramco listing was delayed to rope in anchor investors: sources – (Reuters) – Oil giant Saudi Aramco’s much-vaunted stock market listing was delayed after deal advisers said they need more time to lock in cornerstone investors, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. After a false start last year, preparations gathered momentum this summer with approaches to sovereign wealth funds, rich Saudis and large foreign fund managers as potential cornerstone investors only for plans to unravel for a second time. The world’s biggest oil company had been expected last week to launch the domestic sale of a 1-2% stake, but the signing up of marquee backers has been hampered by continuing valuation concerns exacerbated by recent attacks on Aramco’s Abqaiq and Khurais plants. Aramco was unable to answer valuation questions fully during initial talks with investors, said one Gulf institutional investor who has been involved in the discussions. Sovereign funds in the oil-rich Gulf region typically shy away from energy exposure, he added, looking to diversify their investment portfolio. Two of the sources said that a Saudi government committee overseeing the planned Aramco flotation had therefore recommended to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman last Wednesday that the launch of an initial public offering (IPO) scheduled for Oct. 20 be postponed.

Saudi Offering Smashes Expectations Despite Oil Attacks – Saudi Arabia’s US$2.5-billion Islamic bond issued on Tuesday attracted orders worth more than US$13 billion in the first international debt issue since the attacks on vital Saudi oil facilities in the middle of September.On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia sold US$2.5 billion worth of Islamic bonds, or sukuk,returning to the bond market to take advantage of the low borrowing costs in hopes of replenishing its government coffers as persistently low oil prices depress revenues.The ten-year bond was priced at 127 basis points over the benchmark midswaps, down from a guidance of 145-150 basis points over the midswap rate, due to the strong demand, Bloomberg reports.Investor demand for Saudi Arabia’s Islamic bond was high, even after the September 14 attacks on critical oil infrastructure that knocked more than half of Saudi oil supply offline. In recent years, the Kingdom has borrowed a lot of money on the international bond markets to offset the lower government oil revenues, on the back of low oil prices.In July this year, the Saudis issued a debut Eurobond of US$3.3 billion (3 billion euro). Since its first foray into international bond markets at the end of 2016, the Kingdom has raised as much as US$60 billion in international bond issues, according to Reuters estimates. The latest bond issue comes as Saudi Arabia last week delayed, yet again, the much-hyped listing of its oil giant Aramco by at least several weeks.The main stumbling block has been that international investors are not really buying the Saudi insistence that the biggest oil company in the world is worth US$2 trillion. At a meeting to endorse the initial public offering (IPO) last week, the banks Aramco has hired for the listing made clear that foreign investors are not rushing to invest in the Saudi state oil company at a valuation of US$2 trillion. According to Bloomberg sources, the valuation should be closer to US$1.5 trillion if Aramco wants to stir real interest among international investors.

Egypt building secret tunnels to take water out of country, says Mohamed Ali – The Egyptian government has laid secret tunnels under the Suez Canal to transport water to destinations almost certainly outside of Egypt despite the country’s crippling shortage, whistleblower Mohamed Ali told Middle East Eye.“Engineers who worked on these tunnels told me about them and said they had cost billions of dollars,” Ali told MEE from a secret location in Spain.Ali, who for years worked as a contractor for the Egyptian military and government, said his contacts in the construction business told him that there was a lack of infrastructure built around the tunnels, raising questions about the intended destination of the waters.“If this water is going to the Sinai, then why have they not begun establishing water treatment plants?” Ali asked.“That means the water is not going to Sinai, it is going to another place.”Population growth, mismanagement of resources and a lack of investment in water infrastructure have made Egypt one of the world’s most “water-stressed” countries, according to the United Nations.Egypt could run dry by 2025, the UN predicts.Once an insider who saw the military and government’s inner workings first-hand, Ali now lives in hiding and has become one of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s most prominent critics.Since early September, he has been firing off a volley of videos, alleging widespread graft at the hands of Sisi and other top officials. They have sparked furious anger against Sisi and in late September prompted the first major protests against his rule in years.

Abu Dhabi’s Massive New Snow Park Has Almost Been Completed – Today in “when you have more oil money than you know what to do with” news, Abu Dhabi’s massive 11,612 square meter “Snow Park” is reportedly “well on its way to completion”, according to The National. The park, called Snow Abu Dhabi, will be home to the world’s largest “snow play area” and will be located in the upcoming Reem Mall on Reem Island. It is set to be finished by the end of 2020. Reem Island is a natural island 600 metres off the coast of Abu Dhabi island that is being jointly built out by property developers and real estate companies.The entrance to the park will house an area called Snowflake Garden (make your millennial jokes here), which is described as an open-play area with attractions like ice labyrinths. The park will also host a Crystal Carousel, which is “centred around a twinkling winter forest and all the magical creatures found within.” …whatever the hell that means. The park will maintain an indoor temperature of -2°C (always an easy task in the middle of the desert) and a snow depth of 20 inches. It will also include a retail outlet that will set hats and cold weather clothing. Which, of course, you can then promptly throw out when exiting the park into the 100 degree desert heat. The park will also include an attraction called Flurries’ Mountain that leads to the park’s Enchanted Tree. The tree will soar above the park and will have “creative ornamentation” on each of its branches. Employees will be dressed as “winter wonderland-style characters” and, in sum, the park will host 13 different rides and games. Chalk this one up as another high quality use of resources in the middle east…

Major Blaze At Iran Oil Refinery Raises Suspicions Of Saudi Revenge Attack – A section of Iran’s sprawling Abadan oil refinery in the southwest of the country went up in flames Saturday, and state media sources reported the emergency was under control as of Sunday morning. State media is describing it as “a fire in a canal carrying waste from Iran’s Abadan oil refinery,” with Iranian official broadcaster IRIB saying, “The refinery’s fire department contained the fire and prevented it from spreading to other units.” A fire in a canal carrying waste from #Iran’s #Abadan oil refinery was brought under control on Sunday: State Media pic.twitter.com/zTHwrVHMVc – Tasnim News Agency (@Tasnimnews_EN) October 20, 2019 However, given the extent of the blaze captured in social media circulating videos, and especially given it comes after a tense summer of attacks on tanker and refineries – notably the Sept. 14 Saudi Aramco drone and missile attack – the newest Iran facility fire raises serious question. Could the clearly massive Abadan blaze, which Iranian state sources appear ready to downplay, be the result of a Saudi revenge attack? Though unverified and unconfirmed, Iranian opposition sources are pointing to a potential cyber attack as a possible cause for the fire. #BREAKING: It is now confirmed that a Cyber attack resulted fire in #Abadan‘s Oil Refinery in Southwest of #Iran. Probably a Cyber attack in response to #IRGC‘s cruise missile attack at #Aramco‘s oil facilities in #Abqaiq & #Khurais, #SaudiArabia on 14 September 2019. pic.twitter.com/mkgs5LZXnq Again, local authorities say it’s the result of an accident, and though yes the occasional oil refinery blaze does happen, it’s the fact that it comes after months of unprecedented Saudi-Iran (and allies) tit-for-tat targeting of tankers and energy resources that should raise some eyebrows. The blaze is currently subject of intense speculation online after early reports cited an initial “explosion” at the facility.

Japan To Send Its Own Military Force To Strait Of Hormuz -Ever since the new round of ‘tanker wars’ began in Strait of Hormuz in mid-June with a mysterious mine attack on multiple tankers, one involving a Japanese-owned ship, Tokyo has reportedly mulled sending a Japanese defense force to the area to help protect vital shipping lanes. In a rare move, the pacifist nation appears ready to pull the trigger, as FT reports, citing chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, who indicated that “the government was planning to deploy forces in a region where a Japanese tanker, the Kokuka Courageous, was recently attacked with a limpet mine.”Japan’s Asahi newspaper also reported that the self-defense troop deployment to the vital Persian Gulf passage way comes “instead of joining the U.S.-coalition”.Japan had been among many US allies urged to assist in forming a US-led maritime security patrol – a plan which many feared would only exacerbate tensions with Iran, only leading to war. In not joining the US-led security mission, Tokyo is ensuring it won’t damage important economic ties with Iran.FT describes what such a Japanese expedition will likely involve:A Japanese expedition would probably involve ships and aircraft from the Maritime Self-Defense Force. [Chief Cabinet Secretary] Mr Suga said its operations would be limited to international waters in the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait.He said the dispatch would take place under provisions of Japanese law allowing for military information gathering and research. The pacifist constitution tightly proscribes how Japan can deploy its military and any ships it sends would use force only in self-defense.Suga said further, “At present, there is no direct need for the protection of Japanese vessels by Self-Defense Force assets, but in any event, we’ll consider what further measures are necessary for the security of ships linked to our country.”

Trump Claims To Have Taken Control Of Middle East Oil – “We’ve taken control of the oil in the Middle East,” President Trump claimed on Friday afternoon, in response to criticism over his handling of US troop movements out of Syria. “We’ve taken control of the oil in the Middle East, the oil that we’re talking about, the oil that everybody was worried about. We have the U.S. control of that,” Trump said, adding that America’s actions in Syria should have been made years ago under the Obama administration. The words echoed Trump’s earlier tweet, with similar oil-based claims. “The U.S. has secured the Oil, & the ISIS Fighters are double secured by Kurds & Turkey,” Trump’s tweet read in part. The President did not elaborate on what he meant by “securing the oil,” but speculations about the President’s statement assume he is referring to US special forces that have been – and will continue to be – in control of oil and gas fields in Deir Ezzor. The Syrian state has long argued that the oil and gas assets should be returned to it. Trump added that the Kurds are very happy with the deal the US has secured. If President Trump adheres strictly and completely with his promise to exit Syria, the question remains exactly how the US will continue securing this oil.

‘Secured the oil’: US troops stay behind to guard oilfields – The United States is weighing whether to retain a military presence near oilfields in northeastern Syria in order to prevent the sites falling under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, or ISIS) armed group. US defence chief Mark Esper’s comments on Monday came as American troops crossed into Iraq as part of a withdrawal from northeastern Syria ordered by President Donald Trump, a decision that cleared the way for Turkey to launch a cross-border offensive on October 9 against Kurdish fighters in the region. The Reuters news agency reported more than 100 vehicles crossed the border into Iraq early on Monday from the northeast tip of Syria, where Turkey agreed to pause its offensive for five days under a ceasefire deal with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) brokered by Washington. Speaking to reporters during a trip to Afghanistan, Esper said while the US withdrawal was under way, some troops were still with partner SDF fighters – Washington’s main ground allies in the fight against ISIL- near oilfields and there had been discussions about keeping forces there. Esper said that was just one option and no decision had been made “with regard to numbers or anything like that”. The Pentagon’s job was to look at different options, he added. “We presently have troops in a couple of cities that [are] located right near that area,” Esper said. “The purpose is to deny access, specifically revenue to ISIS and any other groups that may want to seek that revenue to enable their own malign activities.” Trump later told a cabinet meeting in Washington, DC, a “small number” of troops who remained were located in the southeast of the country, while a separate group staying behind had “secured the oil”.

China’s $3.6 Billion Bailout Insulates Turkey From US – Beijing’s biggest support package ever for President Erdogan arrives at a critical time… Despite the US threat to “obliterate and destroy” Turkey’s economy, the Turkish lira and Turkish interest rates barely have budged in the past week (Turkish stocks, especially banks, are down sharply, in part due to the US criminal charges against Halkbank for aiding Iran sanctions violations). That is remarkable given the fragility of Turkey’s currency earlier in 2019. Between February and May, the Turkish lira fell from 5.2 to the US dollar to 6.2 in response to US sanctions, before recovering to 5.88 to the dollar today. The Turkish central bank leaned on Turkish banks to refrain from offering liquidity to short-sellers, but Turkish money markets remained orderly.What changed is China. Turkish President Erdogan’s insolence in the face of American threats brings to mind B’rer Rabbit’s imprecation to B’rer Fox: “Please don’t throw me in the briar patch.” The relevant foliage in this case is bamboo. Bloomberg News reported Aug. 9, “China’s central bank transferred $1 billion worth of funds to Turkey in June, Beijing’s biggest support package ever for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivered at a critical time in an election month. The inflow marks the first time Turkey received such a substantial amount under the lira-yuan swap agreement with Beijing that dates back to 2012, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because the information isn’t public.”China’s direct investment in Turkey also has surged this year, as Nikkei reported Aug. 22: China is coming to Turkey’s aid during its economic crisis with $3.6 billion in funding for infrastructure projects, leveraging Ankara’s conflict with Washington to expand its Belt and Road Initiative in the key country that links Asia with Europe.

The US airstrike on its former headquarters is a terrible symbol of American failure in Syria – Patrick Cockburn –I was driving a year ago past a giant cement factory in northeast Syria which was then the military headquarters of the US forces fighting alongside the Kurds to defeat Isis. It was this same Lafargue cement plant, close to the Euphrates, that was bombed by two US F-I5 jets last week after being hastily abandoned by US forces, to destroy stores of ammunition that had been left behind. The airstrike on the former US headquarters is a symbol of the US failure in Syria, just as a helicopter crammed with terrified Vietnamese lifting off from the roof of the American embassy in Saigon in 1975 became a symbol of the US defeat in Vietnam. People across the Middle East are asking how far the US pull-out from Syria changes the balance of power in the region, as Russia, Turkey, Iranand Syrian president Bashar al-Assad all, in their different ways, move to fill the vacuum left by the US. Does it mean, for instance, that Donald Trump’s policy of confronting Iran, which was already in trouble, is close to being capsized entirely? The crisis is bizarre and unprecedented because it did not have to happen this way: in the course of a few weeks, Trump has managed to convert a limited US reverse into a full-scale self-inflicted disaster. A good argument could always be made for the US pulling out of Syria, where it was a weak and vulnerable player, but it was Trump’s impulsive tweet that provoked a US scuttle and a Turkish invasion. The blatancy of Washington’s betrayal of the Syrian Kurds, the essential ground troops in the elimination of the Isis caliphate, ensured that this not-unexpected drawdown of US forces has done maximum damage to America’s credibility. Trump’s efforts to escape a mess of his own making keep making it worse. On Thursday night in Ankara, US vice president Mike Pence announced that after tough negotiating with Erdogan, he had persuaded the Turks to agree to a five-day truce in Syria. It turns out that he had achieved this negotiating masterpiece by giving the Turks everything they wanted, such as a permanent Turkish occupation of a 300-mile long and 20-mile wide swathe of Kurdish-inhabited northeast Syria.

U.S. once stopped ethnic cleansing, now it excuses it in Syria – – In the 1990s the US was adamantly opposed to ethnic cleansing in the Balkans, leading efforts to prevent it. In the wake of US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from parts of Syria it increasingly looks like Washington will sign off on the population transfer of Kurds from areas that Turkey has demanded. Already 200,000 people have been displaced, mostly Kurds, because of the US decision and Turkey’s invasion. On Sunday Trump tweeted that the ceasefire the US helped broker was “holding up very nicely. There are some minor skirmishes that have ended quickly. New areas being resettled with Kurds.” These “new areas” are areas that Kurds have been forced to flee to by the fighting and Turkish-backed jihadists who have indiscriminately shelled. One unarmed female politician, a victim of what Turkish media called a “successful neutralization” was dragged by her hair by jihadists and shot to death. Trump says the new US plan is to “secure the oil.” In the process the US sent Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Ankara to negotiate a pause in Turkey’s offensive. In that pause the civilians of Sere Kaniye were removed in a convoy of ambulances, the end process in ethnic cleansing of civilians from areas that Ankara calls a “safe zone.” Into that area Turkey says it will settle millions of Arab refugees from other parts of Syria, a plan Ankara showed to the UN in September. In the 1990s these kinds of efforts were called ethnic cleansing. The US helped broker the Dayton Accords in 1995 with the leader of the Republic of Serbia Slobodan Milosevic, president of Croatia Franjo Tudjman and President of Bosnia and Herzegovina Alija Izetbegovic. The agreement tried to lay down the areas of control in Bosnia between Serbs and Bosnians and Croats after years of war and allegations of ethnic cleansing. The US attempted to stop the violence, not give a stamp of approval for the removal of minorities, the way it has done in Syria.

The US has backed 21 of the 28 ‘crazy’ militias leading Turkey’s brutal invasion of northern Syria –Footage showing members of Turkey’s mercenary “national army”executing Kurdish captives as they led the Turkish invasion of northern Syria touched off a national outrage, provoking US government officials, pundits and major politicians to rage against their brutality.In the Washington Post, a US official condemned the militias as a “crazy and unreliable.” Another official called them “thugs and bandits and pirates that should be wiped off the face of the earth.” Meanwhile, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described the scene as a “sickening horror,” blaming President Donald Trump exclusively for the atrocities.But the fighters involved in the atrocities in northern Syria were not just random tribesmen assembled into an ad hoc army. In fact, many were former members of the Free Syrian Army, the force once armed by the CIA and Pentagon and branded as “moderate rebels.” This disturbing context was conveniently omitted from the breathless denunciations of US officials and Western pundits.According to a research paper published this October by the pro-government Turkish think tank SETA, “Out of the 28 factions [in the Turkish mercenary force], 21 were previously supported by the United States, three of them via the Pentagon’s program to combat DAESH. Eighteen of these factions were supplied by the CIA via the MOM Operations Room in Turkey, a joint intelligence operation room of the ‘Friends of Syria’ to support the armed opposition. Fourteen factions of the 28 were also recipients of the U.S.-supplied TOW anti-tank guided missiles.” (A graph by SETA naming the various militias and the type of US support they received is at the end of this article).In other words, virtually the entire apparatus of anti-Assad insurgents armed and equipped under the Obama administration has been repurposed by the Turkish military to serve as the spearhead of its brutal invasion of northern Syria. The leader of this force is Salim Idriss, now the “Defense Minister” of Syria’s Turkish-backed “interim government.” He’s the same figure who hosted John McCain when the late senator made his infamous 2013 incursion into Syria.

Winners & Losers In The Failed American Project For A ‘New Middle East’ – In the Levant, the US has dramatically failed to reach its objectives, but it has succeeded in waking Russia from its long hibernation, to challenge the US unilateral hegemony of the world and to develop new forms of alliance. Iran has also challenged the US hegemony incrementally since the 1979 “Islamic Revolution”. Iran has planned meticulously, and patiently built a chain of allies connecting different parts of the Middle East. Now, after 37 years, Iran can boast a necklace of robust allies in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan- who are all ready, if necessary, to take up arms to defend Iran. Iran, in fact, has greatly benefited from US mistakes. Through its lack of understanding of populations and leaders around the world, it has universally failed to win “hearts and minds” in every Middle Eastern country where it imposed itself as a potential ally. The arrival of President Donald Trump to power helped US allies and the anti-US camp to discover, together, the limits and reach of US sanctions. Russia and China took the lead in offering a new, softer model of an alliance, which apparently does not aim to impose another kind of hegemony. The offer of an economic alliance and partnership is especially attractive to those who have tasted US hegemony and wish to liberate themselves from it by means of a more balanced alternative. During this period of Trump’s ruling, the Middle East became a huge warehouse of advanced weapons from varied sources. Every single country (and some non-state actors) has armed drones- and some even have precision and cruise missiles. But superiority in armaments by itself counts for very little, and its very balance is not enough to shift the weight to one side or another. Even the poorest country, Yemen, has done significant damage to oil-rich Saudi Arabia, a country highly equipped, militarily, and with the most modern US hardware in the Middle East. US President Trump was informed about the evident failure to change the régime in Syria and the equal impossibility of dislodging Iran from the Levant. He most probably aimed to avoid the loss of lives and therefore decided to abandon the country that his forces have occupied for the past few years. Nonetheless, his sudden withdrawal, even if so far it is partial (because he says, a small unit will remain behind at al-Tanf, to no strategic benefit since al-Qaem border crossing is now operational) – came as a shock to his Kurdish and Israeli allies. Trump proved his readiness to abandon his closest friends & enemies overnight.

Is ISIS Back? – The American political leadership may not have been able to connect the dots on a withdrawal in Syria, but it’s really quite simple:

• 1) Americans step aside
• 2) Turks swarm across the border and attack Kurds
• 3) Kurds cut a deal with Assad and the Russians for protection
• 4) Assad gets his oil back, because it’s all in Kurdish-controlled territory in the northeast

It renders sanctions rather null and void. It empowers Assad exponentially because if there’s one thing he’s desperate for its oil. It gives the last remaining chunk of territory back to Assad, with the exception of Idlib.Now, conflicting reports are emerging about whether the Americans are actually going to leave Syria. It’s occurred to Trump, no doubt with some prompting, that an abrupt exit will simply give Assad all of his oil back. On Thursday, reports citing an anonymous “military official in Damascus” began to circulate to the effect that the Americans would stick by the key oil area of Dier Ezzor (Dier al Zor), home of the Omar oilfields. This report originated with AMN, out of the Middle East. And despite the fact that the source is both unnamed and clearly not an American military source, Western media have also picked up the story in the fashion of the day. As of late Thursday, there has been no confirmation whatsoever that the Americans have been ordered to reverse their decision and stick by the oilfields.

US troops withdraw across Syrian border into Iraq – Hundreds of US troops crossed the Syrian border into Iraq Monday, the first large-scale sign of the pullout ordered by President Donald Trump that has provoked a political firestorm in Washington. The troops traveled in armored cars and other military vehicles, which came under occasional “fire” from Kurdish youth armed with stones, potatoes and tomatoes. At one point, according to a video circulated by the Kurdish ruling party in northeast Syria, a group of demonstrators stopped a US convoy briefly, while displaying hand-made signs, in English, including one which read: “To the US Army who are leaving northeast Syria now tell your children that the children of the Kurds were killed by the Turks and we did nothing to protect them.” There is intense hostility to the US withdrawal in Kurdish towns and villages, where the population now fears occupation by the Turkish army, or even worse, by Turkey’s allies in the “Syrian National Army,” a criminal militia consisting largely of former members of al Qaeda and other Islamist groups recruited by the CIA and Saudi Arabia to fight in Syria against the government of President Bashar al-Assad. These forces have been linked to atrocities, particularly against the many non-Sunni minorities in Syria: Alawites (a variant of Shiism), Kurds, and Christians. After being abandoned by their American patrons, the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia has sought aid from the Assad regime, Russia and Iran against the invasion by Turkish armed forces, which began two weeks ago. Direct fighting between Turkish and Kurdish forces was halted Friday under a 120-hour “pause” agreed between Turkish President Recip Tayyep Erdogan and US Vice President Mike Pence on October 17. The “pause” ends this morning and a resumption of violence is widely expected. While Trump has sought to strike a phony antiwar posture with his pullout order, the US troops leaving Syria will not actually return to the United States. The Pentagon confirmed over the weekend that all 1,000 US troops ordered to leave northeast Syria would move into western Iraq, mainly in Anbar province. It is not clear whether the Iraqi government has yet given approval to this deployment, since the 5,000 American troops now in that country is the maximum level under the current agreement between Baghdad and Washington. Since May, Trump has sent 14,000 more American troops to the Middle East, mainly as part of his campaign of threats against Iran. Earlier this month, he ordered another 3,000 US troops deployed to Saudi Arabia to protect Saudi oil fields from an alleged Iranian threat. Monday saw the latest twist in White House policy, with reports that 200 US Special Forces operatives will remain in Syria, mainly to protect the country’s oil fields, which are in territory the Kurdish forces seized from ISIS during the bloody struggle of 2014-2018. Trump hinted at the decision in a tweet in which he boasted, “We have secured the Oil.”

Exiting U.S. troops scorned; Syrian Kurds lob potatoes, jeer at force — Heckled by Kurds who feel betrayed, a long convoy of U.S. troops crossed into Iraq early Monday, accelerating a withdrawal of American forces from northern Syria that set the stage for the Turkish invasion of Kurdish-controlled land.Residents threw rocks and potatoes at the convoy as it drove through Qamishli, a major city in Kurdish-held territory. In video posted online by a local Kurdish news outlet, ANHA Hawar, men hurling potatoes at an armored vehicle shouted “No America” and “America liar” in English. Another group tried to block the convoy’s progress by standing in its path and holding placards of protest.”The Americans are running away like rats,” one man could be heard shouting.President Donald Trump’s withdrawal of American troops from the region, which cleared the way for Turkey to attack Kurdish forces, has prompted Republicans and Democrats alike to accuse him of abandoning a U.S. ally. A coalition of Syrian Kurdish fighters, Americans and other foreign troops had fought the Islamic State in northeastern Syria since 2014.Defense Secretary Mark Esper confirmed Monday that the United States was considering keeping a small force in northeastern Syria, alongside the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, to prevent oil fields there from falling into the hands of the Islamic State. About 1,000 American troops were in Syria before the withdrawal began this month. The New York Times reported that Trump was leaning toward leaving about 200 troops there.

Iraq says U.S. forces withdrawing from Syria have no approval to stay – (Reuters) – U.S. forces that crossed into Iraq as part of a pull-out from Syria do not have permission to stay and can only be there in transit, the Iraqi military said on Tuesday. U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said, however, that Washington aimed eventually to bring the troops withdrawing from Syria back to the United States. The Iraqi military statement contradicted the Pentagon’s announcement that all of the nearly 1,000 troops withdrawing from northern Syria are expected to move to western Iraq to continue the campaign against Islamic State militants and to help defend Iraq. “All U.S. forces that withdrew from Syria received approval to enter the Kurdistan Region so that they may be transported outside Iraq. There is no permission granted for these forces to stay inside Iraq,” the Iraqi military said. Esper said the details had not yet been worked out on how long the U.S. troops would stay in Iraq and he would be having discussions with his Iraqi counterpart on Wednesday. It is unclear whether the U.S. troops will use Iraq as a base to launch ground raids into Syria and carry out air strikes against Islamic State militants.

The Weapons America Is Leaving Behind in Syria — Less than a week after President Donald Trump formally ordered the U.S. military to withdraw the majority of its forces from Syria, the Pentagon carried out an unusual mission in the northeastern part of the country. A pair of F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets delivered a precision airstrike, not to protect a joint U.S.-Turkish patrol on the border or bomb an ISIS haven back to the Stone Age, but to destroy a major U.S. ammo cache housed in a former cement factory that had been converted into a U.S. special operations base and Kurdish training camp. The stated reason: to “reduce the facility’s military usefulness.” This unusual mission underscores the logistical nightmares wrought by a hasty U.S. military withdrawal from the country. Military sources have told reporters that the sortie, which costroughly $23,000 per hour per aircraft, was ordered “because the cargo trucks required to safely remove the ammo are needed elsewhere to support the withdrawal.” Army Colonel Myles Caggins, a spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition in Syria and Iraq, tried to play the incident off as routine, saying that “blowing the ammo was part of the plan,” but Brett McGurk, aformer U.S. envoy to the multinational alliance, tweeted that the mission constituted an “emergency ‘break glass’ evacuation procedure reserved for an extreme worst-case scenario.”McGurk isn’t wrong. “Trying to destroy munitions from the sky like this does not work as well as air planners think,” John Ismay, a New York Timesreporter and former Navy explosive ordnance disposal officer, tweeted. “Some of the weapons you hit will detonate sympathetically, sure. For the rest, you’ve blown open secure storage and made it available to anyone with a pickup truck.”It’s that latter prospect that should be concerning. In 2017, Trump shuttered a CIA program to arm and equip Syrian rebels, and the weapons and ammo left behind may have helped spur what one researcher on the ground has called an “industrial revolution in terrorism” – and in the midst of Trump’s hasty about-face in northern Syria, even more powerful U.S. munitions stand poised to fall into enemy hands.

Iran rejects Turkey’s establishing of military posts in Syria: TV – Reuters – Iran rejects Turkey’s establishing of military posts inside Syria, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said on Monday, adding that the integrity of Tehran’s key regional ally should be respected. “We are against Ankara’s establishing of military posts in Syria … The issues should be resolved by diplomatic means … Syria’s integrity should be respected,” Mousavi told a weekly news conference, broadcast live on state TV. On Thursday, Turkey agreed in talks with U.S. Vice President Mike Pence to a five-day pause in an offensive into northeastern Syria, to allow time for the Kurdish fighters to withdraw from a “safe zone” Ankara aims to establish near its border with Syria. Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that Ankara would press on with its offensive into northeastern Syria and “crush the heads of terrorists” if a deal with Washington on the withdrawal of Kurdish fighters from the area was not fully implemented. A close ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iran has offered to engage Syrian Kurds, Syria’s government and Turkey in talks to establish security along the Turkish-Syrian border following Turkey’s military incursion into northern Syria to fight Kurdish forces.

“We Have Hours Left”: Turkish Ceasefire On Edge Of Collapse As Erdogan Gives Kurds Hours To Flee Territory – The Turkish lira has started to slide again… .. as last week’s ceasefire between Turkey, northern Syria and its Kurdish inhabitants – which has just over 24 hours to go – now appears in jeopardy. On Monday, Turkey gave Kurdish fighters until Tuesday night to leave a narrow strip of territory in northeastern Syria or face becoming targets, setting aside its demand for the militia to withdraw from a much larger “safe zone.” “We have hours left,” Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told a forum organized by state-run TRTWorld television in Istanbul on Monday. “If they don’t withdraw, our operation will start. This is our agreement with the U.S.” As Bloomberg notes, citing a senior Turkish military official said, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces must exit the 120-kilometer (75-mile) area between the Syrian border towns of Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn by 10 p.m. local time on Tuesday. While Turkey still wants the Kurds to withdraw from a swath of frontier territory more than 440 km long and 32 km deep, it recognizes that won’t happen before the expiry of a 120-hour truce negotiated by the U.S. last week, said the official who also ruled out any extension of the deadline for withdrawal from a 120-kilometer long frontier. The clarification over the parameters of the truce on Monday followed threats by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to restart the offensive if the militants do not pull back from the area. Turkey’s immediate goal is to clear the 120-kilometer strip and so far 125 vehicles have left the area and that the effort to implement the deal was closely coordinated with the U.S., the official said, adding that Turkey plans to set up observation points, including combat units, in the area; he also said that control over the 120- kilometer strip would belong to the Turkish Air Force but that it would take time to fully make sure that the area is cleared from the militants.

Evidence found of war crimes during Turkish offensive in Syria, says U.S. official (Reuters) – President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Syria said on Wednesday that U.S. forces had seen evidence of war crimes during Turkey’s offensive against the Kurds in Syria, and had demanded an explanation from Ankara. “We haven’t seen widespread evidence of ethnic cleansing,” said James Jeffrey, special representative for Syria, at a House of Representatives hearing.“Many people fled because they’re very concerned about these Turkish-supported Syrian opposition forces, as we are. We’ve seen several incidents which we consider war crimes,” Jeffrey said. He said U.S. officials were looking into those reports and at “a high-level” had demanded an explanation from Turkey’s government. He also said U.S. officials were investigating a report that the restricted burning white phosphorus had been used during the Turkish offensive.Jeffrey and Matthew Palmer, a deputy assistant secretary of state who handles issues including relations with Turkey, spent a second straight day testifying in the U.S. Congress.

Iraqi Kurds turn to Zoroastrianism as faith, identity entwine – In a ceremony at an ancient, ruined temple in northern Iraq, Faiza Fuad joined a growing number of Kurds who are leaving Islam to embrace the faith of their ancestors — Zoroastrianism. Years of violence by the Islamic State jihadist group have left many disillusioned with Islam, while a much longer history of state oppression has pushed some in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region to see the millennia-old religion as a way of reasserting their identity. “After Kurds witnessed the brutality of IS, many started to rethink their faith,” said Asrawan Qadrok, the faith’s top priest in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region. During Fuad’s conversion ritual in Darbandikhan, near the Iranian border, a high priest and his assistants wore white clothes representing purity and recited verses from the Zoroastrian holy book, the Avesta. They knotted a cord three times around Fuad’s waist to symbolise the faith’s core values of good words, good thoughts and good deeds. The newcomer raised her hand and swore to abide by those three values and to protect nature, respecting water, air, fire, earth, animals and humans. “I feel very happy and refreshed,” Fuad said, adorned with her Farawahar necklace, a powerful spiritual symbol given to her by the high priest. She said she had been studying Zoroastrianism for a long time and was drawn to its philosophy, which “makes life easy”. “It is all about wisdom and philosophy. It serves mankind and nature,” she said.

Assad Is Now Syria’s Best-Case Scenario – President Donald Trump is taking considerable flak for his impulsive decision to withdraw U.S. forces from northern Syria. He deserves it because it is hard to imagine a more inept or ill-considered response to the imbroglio he inherited there. But let’s not lose sight of the bigger picture: U.S. policy toward Syria has been a failure for years, and the American strategy – if that word is even appropriate – was rife with contradictions and unlikely to produce a significantly better outcome no matter how long the United States stayed. (For a good brief summary of “how we got here,” see Max Fisher’s piece in the New York Times.) As depressing as it is to write this sentence, the best course of action today is for President Bashar al-Assad’s regime to regain control over northern Syria. Assad is a war criminal whose forces killed more than half a million of his compatriots and produced several million refugees. In a perfect world, he would be on trial at The Hague instead of ruling in Damascus. But we do not live in a perfect world, and the question we face today is how to make the best of a horrible situation. A serious diplomatic effort would require the United States to work with each of the other interested parties, but Washington far too high-minded for that. It won’t work with Russia because it’s angry about Ukraine; it won’t talk to Assad because he’s a war criminal; and it won’t deal with Iran because it’s still hoping “maximum pressure” will cause the clerical regime to collapse or convince it to say “uncle” on the nuclear issue and its regional conduct. In the meantime, it has to send more troops to Saudi Arabia because Trump’s maximum pressure campaign has increased the risk of war, belying the president’s pledge to draw down the U.S. military presence in the region. The bottom line: The solution to the situation in Syria is to acknowledge Assad’s victory and work with the other interested parties to stabilize the situation there. Unfortunately, that sensible if unsavory approach is anathema to the foreign-policy “Blob” – Democrats and Republicans alike – and its members are marshaling the usual tired arguments to explain why it’s all Trump’s fault and the United States should never have withdrawn a single soldier.

How Much Oil Is At Stake In Syria? – Trump is mulling keeping a small US troop contingency in Syria in order to “secure the oil”. The president said at a cabinet meeting Monday: “I always said if you’re going in, keep the oil,” the WSJ reported. “We’ll work something out with the Kurds so that they have some money, so that they have some cash flow. Maybe we’ll get one of our big oil companies to go in and do it properly.” In response, former special presidential anti-ISIL envoy Brett McGurk, who served under both the Obama and Trump administrations, stated the obvious: “Oil, like it or not, is owned by the Syrian state,” he said Monday. “Maybe there are new lawyers, but it was just illegal for an American company to go and seize and exploit these assets.” Obviously the US doesn’t “need” Syrian oil, but would utilize seized oil and gas fields as part of its continued campaign of economic strangulation against Damascus and Tehran. But the question remains: how much oil is actually at stake in Syria? Total reserves are estimated at 2.5 Billion barrels and at least 75% of these reserves are in the fields surrounding Deir Al Zor. Current revenue from oil sales goes to the [US-backed] SDF, currently estimated at $10 million a month. These revenues are expected to rise should U.S. help in modernizing current fields. SDF can then sell the oil to Damascus and/or Kurdistan in Iraq which will in turn sell to Turkey. Turkey’s current oil consumption is about 1 million barrels a day. Syria’s reserves are 2.5 billion barrels and daily production can be quickly increased to approximately 300K barrels a day. The SDF can therefore look to supply at least one-fifth of Turkey’s needs via Iraq. Turkey will also look to obtain direct access to Syria’s Rumeilan oil field in the northeast should it complete its seizing of the North-East zone. Between them, Ankara and the SDF (with protection of U.S military) can soon control up to 90 percent of Syria’s 2.5 billion oil reserves. Syria’s 2.5 billion barrels in oil reserves are rather “negligible” compared to say Saudi Arabia, with oil reserves at around 268 billion barrels (over 100 times that of Syria). Note that the SDF is currently selling Syria’s oil at around $30 per barrel.

Putin, Erdogan Strike Deal on Joint Patrols of the Syria Border – Russia and Turkey struck a deal on an operation to secure a buffer zone in northern Syria, including joint patrols and coordinated action with Syrian forces to remove Kurdish fighters from the area. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan emerged from more than six hours of talks on Tuesday to announce the agreement, which they said would begin at noon on Wednesday. “We’ve signed a historic memorandum with Putin for the territorial and political integrity of Syria and the return of refugees,” Erdogan said at a joint news conference in Russia’s Sochi. They reached “crucial” decisions that will help “resolve the rather acute situation that has developed on the Syrian-Turkish border,” Putin said. The announcement came hours before the expiration of a five-day cease-fire that the U.S. arranged between Turkey and Kurdish forces known as the YPG. While Erdogan brands the group terrorists, the Kurdish soldiers fought alongside American troops against the Islamic State in Syria. “The Sochi agreement includes articles upholding Turkey’s border security and withdrawal of YPG terrorist elements 30 kilometers away from our border,” Turkey’s Defense Ministry said in a statement early Wednesday. “At this stage, there is no further need to conduct a new operation outside the present operation area.” Turkey has warned it would target any remaining Kurdish YPG militants at the expiration of the pause in the “Peace Spring Operation” between the border towns of Ras al-Ayn and Tal Abyad. Erdogan said the U.S. hasn’t kept all its promises and Turkey would take necessary steps, CNNTurk television reported. U.S. officials said the cease-fire mostly held and that they hoped it would become permanent. Vice President Mike Pence’s office said in a statement that the leader of the Kurdish YPG militia sent him a letter confirming his forces met their obligations and “have withdrawn from the relevant area of operations.”

Turkey and Russia Agree to Create ‘Safe Zone’ in Syria – Turkey and Russia have reached an agreement that will see the withdrawal of Syrian-Kurdish forces from areas along the Turkish border, a move that comes after thousands were displaced in a Turkish offensive in northern Syria. In a joint statement released on Tuesday, the countries said that fighters belonging to the predominantly Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia would pull back about 30km from the Turkish border. Speaking after a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said joint Russian-Turkish patrols are also expected to take place in northern Syrian within 10km of the border. Those patrols, which are set to begin at noon local time (09.00 GMT) on Wednesday, aim “to facilitate the removal of YPG elements and their weapons”, the statement said. Last week, Turkey agreed to pause its offensive against Kurdish fighters in northern Syria at Washington’s behest, giving time for the YPG to clear out of the Turkish-Syrian border region. Ankara launched its assault there two weeks ago after Washington announced it would withdraw its forces from the area, a move widely seen as an abandonment of its Syrian-Kurdish allies who had previously led the fight against the Islamic State (IS) group. Ankara views the YPG an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state and is designated as a terrorist group by several countries. “The main aim of the operation is to take out PKK/YPG terror organisations from the area and to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees,” Erdogan said on Tuesday at a joint news conference with Putin.Erdogan also said that YPG forces will leave the towns of Tel Rifaat and Manbij. “This operation also guarantees Syria’s territorial integrity and political unity… We never had any interest in Syria’s land and sovereignty,” the Turkish president added.

Russian Forces Deploy at Syrian Border, Threaten Kurdish Fighters With Being ‘Streamrolled’ by Turkey – Russian military police began patrols on part of the Syrian border Wednesday, quickly moving to implement an accord with Turkey that divvies up control of northeastern Syria. The Kremlin told Kurdish fighters to pull back from the entire frontier or else face being “steamrolled” by Turkish forces. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan echoed those warnings, saying his military would resume its offensive against Kurdish fighters if the new arrangements are not carried out. Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin reached an agreement Tuesday that would transform the map of northeast Syria, installing their forces along the border and filling the void left by the abrupt withdrawal of American troops. The Kurdish fighters, who once relied on the U.S. forces as protection from Turkey, were given a deadline of next Tuesday evening to pull back from border areas they have not already left. Iraq, meanwhile, closed the door on the U.S. military’s attempt to keep the troops leaving Syria on its soil. Iraqi Defense Minister Najah al-Shammari told The Associated Press that those troops were only “transiting” Iraq and would leave within four weeks, heading either to Kuwait, Qatar or the United States. Al-Shammari spoke after meeting U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who earlier this week had said the American forces from Syria would remain in Iraq to fight the Islamic State group. Iraqi’s military quickly said they did not have permission to do so. The clumsy reversal underscored the blow to U.S. influence on the ground in the wake of President Donald Trump’s order for U.S. troops to leave Syria. Those forces were allied to the Kurdish-led fighters for five years in the long and bloody campaign that brought down the Islamic State group in Syria. Now a significant swath of the territory they captured is being handed over to U.S. rivals, and the Kurds have been stung at being abandoned by their allies to face the Turkish invasion launched on Oct. 9.

Russian police deploy in Syria’s Kobani, Trump calls ceasefire ‘permanent’ – (Reuters) – Russian military police started to deploy on Syria’s northeast border on Wednesday under a deal with Turkey to drive out Kurdish fighters, marking Moscow’s deepening influence in the region two weeks after the United States pulled out forces. Turkey announced that its offensive against the Kurdish forces was over, and U.S. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire brokered last week was now permanent and that he was lifting all sanctions imposed on Ankara. The balance of power in Syria’s eight year-long bloody civil war has shifted significantly in dizzying twists and turns since Trump withdrew U.S. special forces on Oct. 6, allowing Turkish troops to sweep in to attack Washington’s former Kurdish allies. Turkey ‘paused’ its offensive last week under a U.S.-brokered deal which called for Kurdish YPG fighters to withdraw, and then secured Russian support this week for a wider deal requiring the YPG’s removal from the whole northeast border. The police arrival in Kobani on Wednesday marked the start of a mission by Russian and Syrian security forces to push the YPG at least 30 km (19 miles) into Syria under an accord reached on Tuesday by Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish leader Tayyip Erdogan. It also seals the return of Russia’s ally President Bashar al-Assad’s forces along the northeastern border for the first time in years. In an address from the White House, Trump said on Wednesday the United States was immediately lifting the sanctions it had imposed on Turkish officials and ministries in response to the cross-border assault.

Exclusive: U.S. Has Plan to Send Tanks and Troops to ‘Secure’ Syria Oil Fields Amid Withdrawal – The United States has drawn up a plan to send troops and tanks to guard Syria’s eastern oil fields amid a withdrawal from the country’s north, Newsweek has learned. A senior Pentagon official told Newsweek Wednesday that the United States is seeking – pending White House approval – to deploy half of an Army armored brigade combat team battalion that includes as many as 30 Abrams tanks alongside personnel to eastern Syria, where lucrative oil fields are under the control of a mostly Kurdish force involved in the U.S.-led fight against the Islamic State militant group (ISIS). The Pentagon-backed militia, called the Syrian Democratic Forces and dominated by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), will continue to be involved in securing these oil fields, the official said. The news comes as other U.S. troops exited territories elsewhere under Syrian Democratic Forces control, where NATO ally Turkey sought to neutralize YPG influence using allied Syrian insurgents. The Turkish operation was halted, however, by a U.S. deal limiting the incursion to a roughly 20-mile “safe zone” – a move President Donald Trump credited with saving “thousands” as he fulfilled his desire to remove U.S. soldiers from the war-torn country at the same time. The president did, however, suggest Wednesday he would keep troops in the small southwestern garrison of Al-Tanf, as well as across crucial oil fields once seized by Syrian insurgents and, later ISIS, before being claimed by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. “We’ve secured the oil and, therefore, a small number of U.S. troops will remain in the area, where they have the oil,” Trump said at the White House. “And we’re going to be protecting it, and we’ll be deciding what we’re going to do with it in the future.” The U.S. initially joined Turkey in backing the rebels and jihadis trying to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but later switched its support to the Syrian Democratic Forces as defeating ISIS became a priority. With ISIS largely defeated and Assad empowered by Iran and Russia, the U.S. expanded its mission to limiting its adversaries’ influence in the country. The official told Newsweek that the new tank deployment would have a combined purpose of keeping ISIS, as well as the Syrian government, Iran and their allied militias away from the eastern oil fields.

Syria Says Turkish-Led Forces Attacked and Killed Its Troops – Turkish forces and their allies attacked Syrian government troops in northeastern Syria on Thursday, killing some of them, and they also clashed with Kurdish-led fighters, the state news agency in Damascus and a war monitoring group said. The fighting underscored the risks of violence as multiple and often opposing armed forces jostle for new positions in the tight quarters of the northeastern border zone. Most worrisome has been the prospect of a collision between forces of the Syrian government’ and those backed by Turkey, which include Syrian rebel fighters and Islamic extremists opposed to President Bashar Assad. All sides have said they are abiding by a cease-fire as they implement a Russian-Turkish agreement that divides up the border region. But frictions could undermine the effort for a resolution on the border, which U.S. forces were abruptly ordered to leave earlier this month, allowing Turkey to launch its invasion against Kurdish fighters. Syria’s state-run SANA news agency said Turkish troops and its allied fighters attacked Syrian army positions outside the town of Tal Tamr. The Syrian troops fought back and suffered “martyrs and wounded,” without elaborating.

Car Bombs Rock Northern Syria After Hundreds Of ISIS Prisoners Escape – On Thursday a car bomb detonated in the town of Tal Abyad, wounding several Turkish-backed Syrian fighters outside their militia headquarters, following at least three other similar blasts this week, which targeted various groups fighting in northeast Syria.The AP reports “There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the bombing” and confirmed that “Similar bombings have taken place in the past in another enclave held for several years by Turkey and its Syrian allies on the northwest part of the border.” Multiple civilian casualties have been reported in each case. This sudden spate of mystery bomb attacks in heavily trafficked civilian areas suggests a resurgent ISIS could already be at work, after this month’s Turkish invasion of Syrian Kurdish areas has resulted in mass ISIS prison breaks in the region. On Wednesday President Trump’s Special Representative for Syria Engagement, James Jeffrey, revealed in Congressional testimony that over 100 Islamic State terrorists previously held in Kurdish prisons are now on the loose. Defense Secretary Mark Esper also confirmed the number in a CNN interview, but tried to downplay it as less than expected. Exclusive: U.S. Defense Secretary @EsperDoD says that “of the 11,000 or so detainees that were in prisons in northeast Syria, we’ve only had reports of a little bit more than a hundred that have escaped… So right now we have not seen this big prison break that we all expected.” pic.twitter.com/N4wcr3FJXv

Russia to present own Persian Gulf security doctrine till yearend – Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov has said that Moscow is trying to offer its Persian Gulf security doctrine within the framework of a completely internationally-accepted document till the end of 2019, the Persian language service of the Sputnik news agency reported on Wednesday. “Then, entire officials from related countries including Arab states, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, India and other beneficiary countries should reach an agreement over the Moscow-offered document.” He further said, “In case of reaching an agreement over the document, the entire nations in the very important region (of the Persian Gulf) will have peace of mind for exporting their crude to Japan, the Far East and China.” Bogdanov stated that the Russian Foreign Ministry embarked on preparing the country’s security doctrine for the Persian Gulf in June, adding, “One of the suggested policies stipulated in the document will be preventing establishment of any trans-regional military base in the region.” Bogdanov went on to say that the draft document has been handed over to representatives of Arab countries, Iran, Turkey, the five permanent members of the UNSC, the European Union, the Arab League and BRICS nations.

The Putin-Erdogan Deal Poses a Challenge to the West – Vladimir Putin is in the brokerage business. The deal on northern Syria that Russian President Vladimir Putin hammered out with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday serves as a perfect advertisement for the service Putin is offering authoritarians around the world, but primarily in the Middle East and Africa. Ever since Putin intervened on President Bashar Al-Assad’s side in 2015, he has used the Syrian conflict as the shop window for the new international role he sees for Russia. Based on Russia’s behavior in Syria, a situation that defies the very idea of long-term alliances and adversarial relationships, these principles are:

• Incumbents should hold on to power. No regime change from the outside.
• Every party with a legitimate interest should get something. There are no permanent red lines.
• Russia will work with anyone who wants to work with Russia.
• Russia will only get involved when it can get something out of the situation.
• Russia won’t get involved when threatened with overwhelming force or heavy losses.

. A player who intervenes on these terms may not appear valuable to anyone except threatened rulers such as Assad. But a big outside power without any lasting commitments is often a necessary element in talks between parties that hate and distrust each other. It can be a calming influence even if it provides few implicit guarantees.The Russian commitment, meanwhile, is minimal. Russian military police will take part in the various patrols, but that doesn’t represent a major change. These forces have been present in Syria all along, guarding the Russian naval and air force bases, helping Assad maintain order in recaptured territories and providing security for various humanitarian corridors and convoys. Take the Putin-Erdogan deal. It gives Turkey de facto control of the territory it already has invaded in Syria, despite previous Russian statements that Turkey’s invasion violates the country’s territorial integrity. Turkey also gets an opportunity to resettle some of its more than 3.5 million unwanted Syrian refugees back on Syrian territory. But Assad, who has called Erdogan a “thief” for his incursion, gets something too: His border guards get to patrol the rest of the Syrian-Turkish border, which the Kurds earlier prevented them from doing. The Kurds aren’t forgotten, either. While the deal requires them to pull back their armed forces 30 kilometers from the Turkish border, Russia and Turkey will jointly patrol only a 10 kilometer-wide strip. As long as they can coexist with the Assad regime, Russia won’t help Assad crush them, and the Kurds will have bought safety from further Turkish attacks and keep most of the territory currently under their control

Dozens killed as fierce anti-government protests sweep Iraq – Renewed anti-government demonstrations in Iraq have gripped the capital, Baghdad, and swept through several other cities in the country’s south, leaving at least 30 people dead, according to the country’s human rights commission and a monitor. The protests on Friday came three weeks after an earlier bout of rallies erupted as a result of widespread anger at official corruption, mass unemployment and failing public services. More than 150 people were killed during those demonstrations amid a crackdown by security forces. Iraqi police fired rubber bullets and volleys of tear gas canisters in response to the fresh protests, with at least 30 deaths recorded in Baghdad and the southern provinces of Basra, Maysan, Dhi Qar and Muthanna, according to the Iraqi Observatory for Human Rights. Iraq’s semi-official Human Rights Commission also put the death toll at 30, and said more than 2,000 protesters had been wounded. Al Jazeera’s Natasha Ghoneim, reporting from Baghdad, described the bloody unrest as “a continuation” of the events of early October, saying officials had failed to address the exasperation fuelling Iraq’s unfolding political crisis. “Though the government has in the intervening weeks said it will implement reforms and said the people responsible for killing protesters would be held accountable, that has done nothing to tamp down the anger that people feel,” Ghoneim said. “People here are living under a crushing amount of poverty … [and] protesters say they want the government gone,” she added.

40 Killed, 1,000 Wounded In One Day As Violent Protests Sweep Across Iraq – A surge in violent clashes with police marked another deadly week of protests in Iraq, after two weeks ago over 150 were killed and over 6,000 wounded nationwide when the large-scale demonstrations began. On Friday over 40 protesters were killed in clashes with police, and according to security sources cited in Reuters, an “Iranian-backed militia opened fire to try to quell renewed demonstrations.”Iraq’s human rights commission (IHCHR) further noted that nearly 1,000 people were wounded in Friday’s clashes, the majority of them protesters angry at widespread corruption, economic hardship, and failing public services. IHCHR also said over 2,000 people were injured nationwide, which also saw police using tear gas and rubber bullets, with widespread reports of security forces possibly continuing to use live fire.Officials in Baghdad have admitted since the outbreak of protests two weeks ago that security forces used a “heavy-handed” response when they initially tried to disperse the crowds which had taken over a number of major cities. At least 40 protesters were killed in Iraq on Friday when security forces used tear gas and an Iranian-backed militia opened fire to try to quell demonstrations against corruption and economic hardship https://t.co/z0PW8tHLs6 pic.twitter.com/GVRKK4t0ew – Reuters (@Reuters) October 26, 2019Western media has also pointed to “Iran-backed militias” and even snipers responsible for the high death toll amid the protests. Concerning this latest round of clashes, Reuters reports as follows of the pro-Iran factions:In the south, at least nine protesters were killed when members of the Iranian-backed Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) militia opened fire on protesters who tried to set fire to the group’s office in the city of Nasiriya, according to security sources. Eight people were killed in Amara city, including six protesters, one AAH member and one intelligence officer, police sources said. Three protesters were killed in oil-rich Basra, one in Hilla, and one in Samawa, security sources said.Starting in early October police admitted they had “lost control” of the situation and large-scale demonstrations escalated

US Eases Regulations On Iran Food & Medicine Sales To Help The Iranian People — Is a humane softening of US sanctions on Iran currently in the works? A new US Treasury announcement suggests this is the case, as it is “taking steps to ease sales of food and medicine to Iran amid stringent sanctions imposed on the country by the Trump administration,” according to the AP. Critics of Trump’s far reaching sanctions after the May 2018 US pullout of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), which especially hit the energy, banking, aviation, and auto sectors, have long argued the economic punitive measures have only served to make life miserable for the common populace, depriving people of outside food and medicine shipments, as well as safety-related technology, similar to the humanitarian crisis that unfolded in sanctioned Iraq under Saddam in the 1990’s. A new “humanitarian mechanism” will seek to ensure crucial aid can still get inside the country. An official statement on the treasury website announced Friday morning:This mechanism will help the international community perform enhanced due diligence on humanitarian trade to ensure that funds associated with permissible trade in support of the Iranian people are not diverted by the Iranian regime to develop ballistic missiles, support terrorism, or finance other malign activities. It will seek to only allow “permissible trade” to support “the Iranian people” even while continuing to isolate the regime’s political and military leadership.

Pompeo Tells Israel It Has Fundamental Right To Attack Iranian Targets In The Region – “Our administration’s been very clear,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told The Jerusalem Post in an exclusive Friday interview, published on Sunday. “Israel has the fundamental right to engage in activity that ensures the security of its people. It’s at the very core of what nation-states not only have the right to do, but an obligation to do.”Immediately after assisting Vice President Mike Pence in negotiating a Syria ceasefire with Turkey in Ankara on Thursday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo headed to Israel. He told the Israeli newspaper in the interview that the ceasefire deal with Erdogan “saved lives”. However, with American troops now exiting Syria, the question of potential Iranian expansion and Israel’s security was focus of his statements.“We know this is a corner where Iran has attempted to move weapon systems across into Syria, into Lebanon, that threatens Israel, and we are going to do everything we can to make sure we have the capacity to identify those so that we can, collectively, respond appropriately,” Pompeo explained in the interview. The interview followed a two hour meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mossad chief Yossi Cohen on Friday morning. Netanyahu has long urged Washington to stay the course in Syria, rather than allow Assad and the Syrian Army to retake the country.“I think the Israeli people should stare at the probably starkest change this administration has made in foreign policy vis-a-vis what the previous administration has done – the toughest sanctions we’ve ever put,” Pompeo continued to The Jerusalem Post.“Sanctions that will be sufficient to decrease the scope and size of the Iranian economy by over 12% this next year. That’s serious stuff. We do this because this denies resources from Iran to do assassination campaigns in Europe, missile systems and infrastructure technology advancement, underwriting Hezbollah, Shia militias around the word. We have materially reduced their capacity to engage in those behaviors.”However, it appears what he calls th e “serious stuff” of sanctions is not going to satisfy the Israelis, given Tel Aviv will lobby the Pentagon to keep a troop contingent inside Iran-ally Syria, likely at al-Tanf on the Iraq-Syria border.

Israel and Gulf States Are Going Public With Their Relationship The Arab states of the Persian Gulf still don’t formally recognize Israel, and most have nominally maintained an economic boycott against it since before it was even a country. Even so, the business ties and warming diplomatic relations between the Jewish state and its neighbors in the Gulf have been an open secret for years. Those ties will be unveiled with fanfare next October when Israel opens its pavilion at the World Expo in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates’ largest city. Participating is like setting up an embassy that will last only six months: Close coordination between Israel and its host will be required on myriad and mundane tasks, including hiring builders and planning ancillary events. It may seem like a substance-free event, but Israel’s presence among the more than 190 other countries is a clear sign of the Middle East’s changing geopolitical picture. Israel’s participation in the expo has been made possible in part by shifting regional priorities, namely the emphasis on confronting Iran for countries such as the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia. Those states also want the enhanced international standing that hosting global events brings, as well as access to Israeli technology. Meanwhile, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, long one of the region’s most pressing issues, has fallen from the top of leaders’ agendas. The promised release of the White House’s “Deal of the Century” peace plan could crystallize the changing dynamics. That said, Israel remains a sensitive issue across the Arab world. While the international body that coordinates the World Expo said it’s up to host nations to invite other countries, the U.A.E. Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation referred questions about Israel’s participation to event organizers. Expo 2020 Dubai spokesman David Bishop says it’s an “apolitical event” and “the real significance is not about the participation of any single country, it’s about the U.A.E. living up to its obligations when hosting global mega-events.” The Palestinians will also have a pavilion at the expo; for them, Israel’s participation is a similarly thorny issue. They’re vigilant for any sign of distance between them and their Arab allies, but also haven’t vocally criticized Israel’s participation, dependent as they are on aid and goodwill from the Gulf states.

Lebanon protests: All the latest updates -Al Jazeera – A nationwide general strike has been called acrossLebanon for Monday as protests, demanding an end to economic woes and perceived government corruption, are set to continue for a fifth day.Protests have grown steadily across the country since people took to the streets on Thursday in response to a proposed tax on WhatsApp calls and other messaging services. The call for a strike has come despite pledges of reforms by Prime Minister Saad Hariri and the resignation of government ministers on Sunday. Lama Fakih, the director of the Crisis and Conflict Division at Human Rights Watch, warned on Monday that there is a “trust and accountability deficit” in Lebanon due to “the government’s perennial failure to hold officials and other perpetrators to account despite credible allegations of abuse and misconduct”.Fakih, citing a history of alleged human rights abuses, added that protesters are right to doubt the government’s promised reforms unless there is a “genuine commitment to accountability for abuses”. Banks in Lebanon will remain closed on Tuesday, according to a statement from the Lebanese banking association, circulated on the National News Agency.The statement said the association was waiting for calm to be restored. On Monday, banks, schools and local businesses were shuttered as protests entered their fifth day. Protesters gathered in the main Martyr’s Square and throughout Beirut listened to Prime Minister Hariri’s announcement on loud speakers.”Revolution, revolution,” chanted many of those gathered when he finished, according to the AFP news agency. “We want the fall of the regime,” they continued. Maya Mhana, a teacher, listened to the speech in central Beirut with other protesters.”We are remaining in the streets, we don’t believe a single word he said,” Mhana told the Associated Press news agency. Read more here.

I don’t blame the Lebanese rioters setting Beirut alight – they are hungry, poor and furious Robert Fisk – For the most part, the men lighting these fires belonged to theAmal Movement, the Shia group controlled by Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament. Or so they told me, and I did not argue about it.This tells it own story. Some were very poor, and looked it, and I don’t really blame them for their actions. Lebanon has never been a very rich nation – save for their Sunni merchants and Christian bankers – and these were the people who did not have enough to eat. For days, they had been protesting their fate. The Lebanese pound had fallen, the price of food had rocketed – all true, I promise you – and they protested.I was not surprised, yet there was something new and surprising about this. All this week, the mountains of Lebanon have burnt. Their great glory of pine trees and wonderful mountainsides have blossomed with flames. The government’s three anti-fire helicopters lay rotting at Beirut international airport – the government did not maintain them – and it needed Greece, Cyprus and Jordan to send its aircraft to quench the burning hills. My own apartment on the Beirut seafront stank of smoke. On Wednesday night, God visited Lebanon – he does come here occasionally, I have decided – and drenched the country in rain and tempest. On Thursday morning, my balcony was covered in sand and ash. But there is something far more serious going on here. The physical rage of Lebanese people is not just a militia outburst. It’s not because ordinary people are hungry – and they are – but because an unjust system (ever more taxes, ever higher prices) is making it impossible to work to bring home money and food.Let me ask just one small question. On the corniche seafront where I live – the Avenue de Paris, as the French mandate decided it should be called in the 1920s – almost every apartment block is empty. Save for those who share the small bloc where I live, there is nothing but darkness. You can drive downtown from here, for miles to the centre of Beirut, and you will not find a light. These buildings are owned as investments – by Iraqis, for the most part, but also by Syrians and Saudis – and no one lives there. In a country where the poor of the Beqaa Valley and the refugees from Syria and the Palestinian refugees (of whom of course we no longer speak, since they are the wreckage of the Israeli state) exist in shacks, these mighty sentinels of cash stand triumphant: empty, rich and shameful. So I fear we shall have more burning tyres on the road.

‘WhatsApp Revolution’ Protests In Lebanon Turn Violent With Fires, Road Blocks; Multiple Dead & Wounded – Lebanon erupted in large-scale ‘Arab Spring’ style protests starting Thursday night into Friday, marked by number of massive fires and makeshift roadblocks which could be seen going up in Beirut, in what international reports are calling the biggest cross-sectarian anti-government uprising in years. At least two bystanders have died, one protester killed, and over 60 police wounded. The protests were reportedly triggered based on the announcement of a legislative bill to tax people $6 a month for using the popular WhatApp messaging platform, but have grown into broader demands that political leaders step aside over the country’s worsening economic crisis and lack of jobs. For this reason Lebanese daily al-Akhbar dubbed the protests “the WhatsApp revolution” and with others calling it “a tax intifada”. Chants could be heard in Arabic of “the people want the downfall of the regime” from crowds described as containing a broad cross-section of Lebanese society, whether Christian, Sunni or Shia. Police clashed with thousands of demonstrators in Beirut throughout Friday who lit tires on fire and in some cases charged government buildings and damaged shop-fronts.“We’re not here over WhatsApp – we’re here over everything, fuel, food, bread, everything.”Thousands have taken to the streets in Lebanon as anger grows over gov’t tax plans amid an economic crisis in the country.

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