Oil, Gas, And Fracking News Reads 07July, 2019 – Part 2

Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

Here are some more selected news articles about the oil and gas industry from the week ended 07 July 2019. Go here for Part 1.

This is a feature at Global Economic Intersection every Monday evening.

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Some BP Oil Won’t See Light of Day— Oil companies are under increasing pressure to bring fuel to market faster and cheaper, leading BP Plc to conclude some of its resources “won’t see the light of day,” according to its head of strategy. Some of the “more complicated to extract” resources in the British oil major’s portfolio may have to be sold or stay in the ground, said Dominic Emery, the company’s group head of strategy. They’re going to be too expensive and too time-consuming to get out, and the industry is under pressure to shorten the duration and size of projects, he said. Part of the shift is due to climate change, which has caused investors to pressure BP to stick to lower-carbon projects. It’s also due to an oil price that’s half what it was five years ago, meaning some projects “simply don’t make money.” “There are classes of resources that are kind of much further out and more complicated to extract,” Emery said in an interview. “There’s no doubt that some of those resources won’t come out the ground.” Emery didn’t quantify the volume of BP’s resources that may stay put. The oil major said in an investor presentation last year it has 25 billion barrels of resources, 40% of which have been “booked and proved.” Emery said only unproved oil resources are at risk of being stranded. While he also didn’t clarify which resources are the most complicated to extract, research from consultants Rystad Energy AS and Wood Mackenzie Ltd. tend to point to ultra-deepwater, remote or extremely carbon-heavy projects, such as oil sands, as the longest-term and most expensive.

Anti-fracking activists breached injunction, judge rules – Three anti-fracking protesters have been found to have breached an injunction designed to stop them demonstrating outside a fracking site in Lancashire, which they say has a “chilling effect on the right to peaceful protest”.The trio were taken to court by Cuadrilla, which last year became the first firm to start large-scale fracking in Britain. The energy firm said it took legal action to prevent “dangerous, disrespectful and illegal activity” at its Preston New Road site near Blackpool.Katrina Lawrie, Lee Walsh and Christopher Wilson were found in contempt of court at Manchester high court on Friday after taking part in a “lock-on” at the site on 24 July last year. It took police six and a half hours to separate the protesters as they sat locked together at the entrance to the site. Lawrie was found to have breached the injunction on one further occasion, in August last year. The lock-on came less than a fortnight after a judge granted an injunctionpreventing “persons unknown” from trespassing on the shale gas exploration site and surrounding farmland, as well as prohibiting unlawful obstruction of the site entrance and adjacent main A583 road. “There can be no doubt that the respondents breached the injunction. It is beyond reasonable doubt that they intended to slow or stop the traffic,” said Pelling, who granted the original Cuadrilla injunction last year. He adjourned sentencing for the three protesters and the environmental group Friends of the Earth to seek a variation of the terms of the injunction. They argue it is strikingly similar to a “draconian and anti-democratic” injunction taken out by Ineos, one of Cuadrilla’s rivals, which was subsequently overruled by judges as it was found to be “too wide and insufficiently clear”.

Cuadrilla Using Shale Site to Explore Hydrogen – Cuadrilla Resources Ltd. is looking at ways to produce hydrogen from its stalled shale gas exploration site in northwest England to benefit from U.K. policy pushing the green fuel. The firm said it will study how hydrogen can be produced from its wells to heat homes and power public transport to help develop a commercial use of the greener gas that a key climate report highlighted as crucial to hitting the net zero climate target by 2050. “The north of England can become both a major gas producer and a major hydrogen hub – perhaps the center of the hydrogen revolution in the U.K.,” Francis Egan, Cuadrilla’s chief executive officer told Bloomberg News in an email. Still in its infancy, the aim of the project is to make shale gas more cost competitive and a lower emissions source of hydrogen than imported liquefied natural gas, he said. The U.K. government’s climate advisers said in their landmark report earlier this year that hydrogen will need to be used in heating systems instead of natural gas in order to dramatically cut emissions to net zero. The government is fully behind the development and deployment of hydrogen into its networks with several funding schemes available. However, a commercially viable way to produce hydrogen is yet to emerge.

Ineos Awards Wood Contract for Belgium Cracker — INEOS has awarded Wood a contract for its landmark project to build a propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit and ethane cracker at Antwerp, Belgium, Wood reported Monday. Under the contract, Wood will act as program management partner for the duration of the project and oversee the execution of the new petrochemicals complex, the company stated. Wood added that the contract will be delivered effectively immediately by the company’s multidisciplinary capital projects team in Reading, U.K. and onsite in Antwerp. “We are delighted to support INEOS as part of an integrated project management partnership to deliver this strategically important development for the European petrochemicals industry,” Dave Stewart, CEO of Wood’s Asset Solutions unit in Europe, Africa, Asia and Australia, commented. “We will bring our renowned project management capability in delivering large-scale capital projects and extensive track record of providing engineering, procurement and construction services globally, to this contract.” According to a Jan. 14, 2019, announcement from INEOS, the 3 billion-euro Antwerp facility represents the largest investment the company has ever made and will be Europe’s first new cracker in two decades. INEOS has also stated the complex could be a “game-changer” for Belgium’s economy and reverse a years-long decline in Europe’s petrochemicals sector.

Venezuela Plans on Shutting Fields to Boost Oil — Venezuela’s state-owned oil company is taking an unusual step to try and increase production: shut fields. Starting in July, Petroleos de Venezuela SA will prioritize 13 fields in the Faja, a 55,000 square-kilometer (21,235 square-mile) strip north of the Orinoco River containing heavy crude oil that former president Hugo Chavez turned into the nation’s oil flagship project, according to a document seen by Bloomberg. The other 20 fields — many producing less than 500 barrels a day — will be considered inactive, the document showed. PDVSA is struggling to turn around a slide in Venezuela’s oil production that has only steepened after the U.S. imposed sanctions on sales of naphtha, a compound needed to help tar-like crude from the Orinoco Belt move through pipelines. The restructuring follows PDVSA’s decision to turn oil upgraders into blending facilities in May. Output has fallen to 741,000 barrels a day, after bring further hobbled in March by a series of blackouts. “This is an emergency plan as a result of the lack of naphtha and light crude,” said Antero Alvarado, managing partner of consultant Gas Energy Latin America. “This will affect total production output, as some fields will be shut temporarily.” PDVSA declined to comment.

Mysterious Trader Dodges US Sanctions To Buy Maduro’s Oil – A new report from Bloomberg exposes how international traders can skirt around US sanctions to buy and sell Venezuelan oil, which allows the Maduro regime to remain in power. Dragoslav Ilic, a Serb with a Panamanian trading company, trades Venezuelan oil and avoids US sanctions in global markets by bartering oil and reselling to third parties. MS Internacional Corporation exchanges crude for gasoline and gasoline components, allowing the Maduro regime to supply heavily subsidized fuel to his faithful supporters. Bloomberg notes, until the last several months, no one in the business has ever heard of Ilic or his company. Francisco Monaldi, a professor at Rice University’s Baker Institute, said the emergence of new traders reminds him of those who helped the Venezuelan government survive the strike of 2002 – 2003. “These tiny trading houses are doing the same, helping out the regime to either get cash or gasoline or dilutents to produce crude oil,” Monaldi said. Along with new trading houses, Russia’s state-controlled oil company Rosneft, Indian refiners and China are supporting Petróleos de Venezuela, SA (PDVSA) with billions of dollars in loans for the chance to purchase oil. The mystery trader has been in the headlines: Ilic was accused — and acquitted in a drug-trafficking scandal in Argentina about a 12 years ago. The scheme was known as Vinas Blancas, or White Vineyards, in which drug runners would smuggle Colombian cocaine to Europe in wine bottles.

Colombia calls temporary halt on fracking – Colombia’s State Council dismissed much of a report of mainly oil industry representatives and ordered a new study of the risks and opportunities of fracking. President Ivan Duque appointed the commission of experts in December last year to investigate whether the controversial oil extraction technique is desirable, according to Colombia Reports.

Peru LNG Facility Hits Milestone — Okra Energy, LLC on Wednesday reported the small-scale natural gas liquefaction facility in Peru that applies the company’s technology has achieved a liquefied natural gas (LNG) production milestone. The modular and scalable LNG plant in Colan, Piura province – Peru’s first such facility and one of only five such plants in Latin America – has produced and delivered more than 3 million gallons of LNG, Okra noted in a written statement emailed to Rigzone. The company added the technology enables the northwestern Peruvian region to tap and utilize its natural gas reserves, even when no pipeline infrastructure exists. According to Okra, the LNG plant can service off-grid markets via a “virtual pipeline” of shipments. Andrea Ravenat, Okra’s chief operating officer, told Rigzone that LNG – taking up just one-six hundredth the volume of natural gas – is easy to transport to destinations without pipeline access. “ISO (intermodal) containers enable the transport of LNG via truck, rail and/or ship, enabling the convenient and affordable delivery and storage of energy for factories, power grids and industries,” she said. Okra also stated that all of the Colan plant’s LNG output – nearly 20 percent of Peru’s available LNG supply – has been presold for manufacturers and gas distributors and that subsequent liquefaction trains are under contract. The firm also noted that pending contracts for additional plants demonstrate the demand for natural gas in Latin America’s manufacturing sector.

Oil Giants Shell and Exxon Mobil Eye Somalia – Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon Mobil are looking to return to Somalia ahead of an oil block bid round later this year, the oil ministry said. Shell and Exxon Mobil had a joint venture on five offshore blocks in Somalia prior to the toppling of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in the early 1990s. The country has experienced instability since Barre left and is battling Al Shabaab, an Islamist group that frequently carries out bombings in the country. The exploration and development of the five offshore blocks was suspended in 1990 under what is known as a “force majeure”, but Shell and Exxon have accrued rentals to the government since then, Shell said in a statement. Exxon declined to comment and referred inquiries to Shell. The troubled country currently does not produce any oil but production could transform the economy as early stage seismic data has shown there could be significant oil reserves offshore. “(An) agreement was signed in Amsterdam, Netherlands, on June 21, 2019 and settles issues relating to surface rentals and other incurred obligations on offshore blocks,” the ministry said.

Nigeria’s Crude Oil Export Drops By 1.6 Million Barrels in May– Nigeria’s crude oil export fell by 1.6 million barrels in May, representing a 6.8 per cent decline from data for April export, according to figures obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The CBN, in its economic report for May, put oil export for the period at 1.37 million barrels per day (mbd) or a cumulative of 42.5 million barrels, as against 1.47 mbd or 44.1 recorded the preceding month, The allocation of crude oil for domestic consumption was 0.45 mbd or 13.5 million barrels in the review month, according to the report obtained yesterday. In addition, Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensates and natural gas liquids, was 1.82 mbd or 56.4 million barrels (mb) in the reviewed month. This also represented a decline of 0.01 mbd or 5.2 per cent compared with 1.92 mbd or 57.6 million barrels (mb) produced in the preceding month. The average spot price of Nigeria’s reference crude oil, the Bonny Light (37° API) rose to $73.70 per barrel in the reviewed period, compared with $73.03 per barrel recorded in April 2019. This represented an increase of 0.9 per cent, in contrast to the level in the preceding month. The rise in crude oil price was attributed largely to the growing tensions across the Middle- East, which threatened crude oil supply; escalating trade war between the US and China; supply losses from Venezuela, Libya and Iran and compliance with supply-cut pact by most OPEC member countries. The UK Brent at $72.05/b and the Forcados at U $73.90/b exhibited similar trend as the Bonny Light, while the price of WTI at $58.32/b declined

Nigeria’s Aiteo Eastern to Spend $5B to Boost Output – Nigeria’s largest independent oil producer plans to spend as much as $5 billion to boost its oil and natural gas production in the next five years. Aiteo Eastern E&P Co. plans to drill new oil wells and re-open existing ones as it seeks to raise production, Chief Executive Officer Victor Okoronkwo said Tuesday in an interview in Abuja, Nigeria. It will also seek to increase its stake in a joint venture with Nigeria’s state oil company. “We have a development plan which has been submitted to our joint venture partner NNPC,” he said. The Nigerian government has made changes to how operators can raise funds, moving away from the so-called cash call model whereby partners contribute in line with their stake in a joint venture. That gives operators more freedom to secure financing. Nigeria is also cutting its holdings in joint ventures in order to raise cash. “Our expectation is that in line with the joint venture agreement between us and the federal government, the existing partner will have the right of first refusal,” Okoronkwo said. Aiteo has a share of 45% in Oil Mining Lease 29, with state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. holding the remainder. Aiteo is among Nigerian producers that bought oil leases from majors such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc when overseas operators curbed operations in the West African nation due to oil attacks on infrastructures. The repeated halting of its Nembe Creek Trunk Line, which runs to Shell’s export terminal for Bonny crude, has cost Aiteo and the government at least $2 billion in revenue over the last two years, Okoronkwo said.

Oil spill found in Walvanit River – The pumping of water at Padosem Water treatment plant was halted for some time on Sunday morning after oil spill was found in Walvanit River. Officials later found that the oil spill occurred at Sanquelim. The authorities immediately stopped pumping water to the Padosem water treatment plant. Later, pumping of water resumed.

Russia agrees with Saudi Arabia to extend OPEC+ oil output deal (Reuters) – Russia has agreed with Saudi Arabia to extend by six to nine months a deal with OPEC on reducing oil output, Russian President Vladimir Putin said, as oil prices come under renewed pressure from rising U.S. supplies and a slowing global economy. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday that the deal would most likely be extended by nine months and no deeper reductions were needed. Putin, speaking after talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, told a news conference the deal – which is due to expire on Sunday – would be extended in its current form and with the same volumes. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, meet on July 1-2 to discuss the deal, which involves curbing oil output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd). The United States, the world’s largest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia, is not participating in the pact. “We will support the extension, both Russia and Saudi Arabia. As far as the length of the extension is concerned, we have yet to decide whether it will be six or nine months. Maybe it will be nine months,” said Putin, who met the crown prince on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Japan. Falih, arriving in Vienna for the OPEC+ talks, told reporters when asked about Saudi preferences: “I think most likely a nine-month extension.” Asked about a deeper cut, Falih said: “I don’t think the market needs that.”

Russia Completes Its OPEC Takeover With Deal With Saudis – The trouble with bringing new people into your club, especially if they are bigger than you, is that they might just take over. OPEC is learning that lesson. Three years ago, suffering a collapse in oil prices, OPEC sought outside help to cut oil supplies in order to drain excess inventories that had built up over the previous two years. It eventually succeeded in securing the help of a group of non-OPEC countries. Most of them added little to this new OPEC+ club. The output cuts they offered were, in many cases, going to happen anyway, as a result of natural declines through a lack of investment or dwindling reserves. The one big exception was Russia. President Vladimir Putin — and make no mistake, the decision was his, not the oil minister’s — pledged that Russian oil companies would reduce output by 300,000 barrels a day. Russia’s participation did more than add real barrels to the output curbs. It also brought the country that was then the world’s largest oil producer into the supply-management club. But there was a price to pay and it was one that OPEC members might have foreseen. Russia was never going to accept being told how much oil it could produce by outsiders. That simply didn’t fit with Putin’s view of his country’s place in the world. Russian Rules Move on three years and Russia’s takeover of OPEC is almost complete. Output decisions are no longer negotiated between the group’s oil ministers in suites in Vienna’s luxury hotels and announced to the waiting world from the OPEC headquarters around the corner. They’re thrashed out in advance by Putin and Saudi Arabia’s crown prince. Putin’s announcement from Osaka on Saturday that he and Prince Mohammed Bin Salman had agreed to extend the current output deal to at least the end of the year has made the forthcoming gathering in Vienna almost redundant.

OPEC set to extend oil production curbs by nine months – OPEC and its allies looked all but certain to extend oil supply cuts by nine months, after several members of the Middle East-dominated producer group endorsed a policy designed to support oil prices amid a weakening global economy. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih reportedly said most OPEC members would like to see a nine-month deal extension. A deal is now subject to approval from non-OPEC allies at a meeting on Tuesday, with Iraq’s oil minister saying he did not anticipate any complications. Earlier in the day, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh told reporters he had “no problem” with supporting oil supply cuts by nine months. Tehran, which had been OPEC’s third-largest producer prior to the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions, has previously objected to policies put forward by arch-rival Saudi Arabia. “It is going to be an easy meeting as my stance is very clear,” Zanganeh told reporters in Vienna, Austria. OPEC is set to debate an extension of oil production cuts during its meeting on Monday, before getting the deal endorsed by non-members, such as Russia, on Tuesday. The producer group and its allies have been reducing oil output since 2017 to prevent prices from sliding amid soaring production from the U.S. – which has become the world’s top producer this year ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia. The U.S. is not a member of OPEC, nor is it participating in the supply pact. Washington has demanded Riyadh pump more oil to compensate for lower exports from Iran after slapping fresh sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear program. Oil prices rose sharply, with international benchmark Brent crude trading at $66.28 per barrel, up around 2.4%. Meanwhile, U.S. crude futures stood at $59.95 per barrel, more than 2.5% higher.

Oil jumps over 2% as Saudi Arabia, Russia back supply cuts –(Reuters) – Oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel on Monday after Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq backed an extension of supply cuts for another six to nine months ahead of an OPEC meeting in Vienna. Front-month Brent crude futures for September touched an intraday high of $66.44 a barrel and were up $1.57, or 2.4%, at $66.31 a barrel by 0436 GMT. U.S. crude futures for August rose $1.36, or 2.3%, to $59.83 a barrel after earlier hitting a peak of $60.10, the highest in over five weeks. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies look set to extend oil supply cuts until the end of 2019 after top producers on Sunday endorsed a policy aimed at propping up the price of crude. OPEC, Russia and other producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, meet on Monday and Tuesday to discuss supply cuts. The group has been reducing oil output since 2017 to prevent prices from sliding amid a weakening global economy and soaring U.S. output. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday he had agreed with Saudi Arabia to extend existing output cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by six to nine months. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said the deal would most likely be extended by nine months and no deeper reductions were needed. “While this needs to be ratified by the remaining members of the OPEC+ group, this appears to be a fait accompli,” ANZ analysts said in a note. Stephen Innes, managing partner at Vanguard Markets in Bangkok, said oil prices could also be supported in the medium term because of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and as China’s central bank eases monetary policy to offset the impact from U.S. tariffs.

US oil surges above $60 as OPEC+ poised to extend supply cut – Oil prices surged on Monday as OPEC and its allies looked on track to extend supply cuts until at least the end of 2019 at their meeting in Vienna this week. U.S. crude futures for August climbed $1.65, or 2.8% to $60.12 a barrel, after earlier hitting their highest in over five weeks at $60.28. Iran – under U.S. sanctions alongside OPEC ally Venezuela – on Monday joined top producers Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia in supporting a policy aimed at propping up the price of crude amid a weakening global economy. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, meet on Monday and Tuesday to discuss supply cuts. The group has been reducing oil output since 2017 to prevent prices from sliding amid a weakening global economy and soaring U.S. production. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday he had agreed with Saudi Arabia to extend existing output cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by six to nine months. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said the deal would most likely be extended by nine months and no deeper reductions were needed. “If Russia, Saudi Arabia and the other key OPEC members keep production at the levels they produced in H1-19 they will ensure that the global oil market is not flowing over. They will only have to pay a small restraint while reaping a nice oil price of $60-70 a barrel,” said SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop. “OPEC as a whole is losing market share. But this burden is not evenly distributed as it is Venezuela and Iran who are taking almost all the pain.”

OPEC extends oil cut to prop up prices as economy weakens (Reuters) – OPEC agreed on Monday to extend oil supply cuts until March 2020 as the group’s members overcame their differences in order to prop up the price of crude amid a weakening global economy and soaring U.S. production. The move will likely anger U.S. President Donald Trump, who has demanded OPEC leader Saudi Arabia supply more oil and help reduce prices at the pump if Riyadh wants U.S. military support in its standoff with arch-rival Iran. Benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 has climbed more than 25% so far this year after the White House tightened sanctions on OPEC members Venezuela and Iran, slashing their oil exports. OPEC and its allies led by Russia have been reducing oil output since 2017 to prevent prices from sliding amid soaring production from the United States, which has overtaken Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the world’s top producer. Fears about weaker global demand as a result of a U.S.-China trade spat have added to the challenges faced by the 14-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. “Saudi Arabia is doing its best to achieve oil prices at $70 per barrel despite what Trump wants. But they haven’t accomplished that even with Iranian and Venezuelan oil exports dropping. And the reasons for that are weak demand and U.S. shale growth,”

Oil Futures End Higher As OPEC Decides To Extend Output Cuts — Crude oil futures ended notably higher on Monday, despite giving up a substantial portion of its earlier gains. Oil’s surge was due to OPEC’s decision to extend its current 1.2 million barrel per day output cuts for another nine months instead of the expected six month extension. Final details will be out after the cartel’s meeting with Russia and other top nonmember producers on Tuesday, the second day of the meeting in Vienna. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures ended up $0.62, or 1.1%, at $59.09 a barrel, after hitting a high of $60.28 a barrel earlier in the session. Brent Crude oil futures moved past $65.00 a barrel mark. On Friday, WTI crude oil futures for August ended down $0.96, or 1.6%, at $58.47 a barrel. WTI oil futures gained 1.8% last week, and climbed up more than 9% in June. Want to stay ahead of FDA Decisions, Rulings, Recalls ? Signup for our Newsletter. Oil prices rose sharply Monday morning, reacting to reports that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may continue to cut production till 2020 in order to bolster oil prices. Reports also suggested that Russia and Saudi Arabia will likely agree with the decision. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih reportedly said most OPEC members would like to see a nine-month deal extension. Reports about Iran breaching its nuclear agreement played a role as well in lifting oil prices. Reuters quoted Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif as saying that Iran breached the limit of its enriched uranium stockpile set in 2015. Zarif reportedly confirmed that Iran had gone over the relevant limit of 300 kg of uranium. Oil’s uptick was also supported by the U.S.-China trade truce that came about after the U.S. President Donald Trump and the Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the G20 summit on Saturday.

Oil prices get a lift from short-covering- Kemp – (Reuters) – Hedge fund managers have started to cover some of the bearish short positions in oil they established since late April, amid hopes for interest rate cuts and a trade truce between China and the United States. Hedge funds and other money managers increased their net long position in the six major petroleum futures and options contracts by 19 million barrels in the week to June 25. Last week’s rise was the first after money managers cut their combined net long position by 389 million barrels over the previous eight weeks, a significant turnaround (https://tmsnrt.rs/2FKYmOv ). Position changes were driven by short-covering. Portfolio managers sold 2 million barrels of former long positions, but they also bought back 21 million barrels of previous shorts. Hedge fund long positions outnumbered shorts by a ratio of 3.69:1 on June 25, up from just 3.31 two weeks earlier, though still down from a recent high of 8.68 on April 23. Hedge funds continued to sell Brent (-17 million barrels) but were net buyers of NYMEX+ICE WTI (+11 million), U.S. gasoline (+11 million), U.S. heating oil (+11 million) and European gasoil (+3 million). Benchmark U.S. crude futures prices have risen by almost $8.70 per barrel (17%) since touching a recent low on June 12. The catalyst for fund buying has been a combination of rising expectations for interest rate cuts; a U.S./China trade truce; threats to tanker traffic; and indications OPEC+ will extend output cuts through the end of 2019. However, the main reason is that the hedge fund community had become very bearish over the previous two months – reversing its earlier bullishness since the start of the year.

Oil price ‘could easily be $75’ if trade truce boosts demand, expert says – The success, or failure, of trade talks between the U.S. and China will be a decisive factor in the oil price outlook this year, despite OPEC’s decision to extend production cuts, oil market expert Amrita Sen told CNBC on Tuesday. “I know (Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Khalid) Al Falih said that the second-half of the year (demand) outlook looks better but so much depends on the trade deal, on the truce between the U.S. and China, and global demand has slowed down considerably,” Sen who is a chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects told CNBC Tuesday. “China (demand for oil) hasn’t collapsed at all, it’s still growing slower, but it’s just that lack of confidence, companies have just stopped investing and placing orders and we’ve seen very weak numbers out of other parts of Asia and Europe as well,” she added. Sen hoped that a “truce” between the U.S. and China on its trade dispute reached at the weekend by President Trump and President Xi, in which they agreed to hold off on any new trade tariffs on each other’s imports while trade talks resume, could restore confidence that would fuel oil demand. “But if that doesn’t come back quickly, all of the second half (of 2019) and into 2020 things will be weak,” Sen told CNBC’s Dan Murphy in Vienna, where oil producing group OPEC and its non-member allies like Russia are meeting currently. A potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year and the incentive to forge strong economic growth in the U.S., ahead of the 2020 presidential election, could provide extra impetus for oil market demand, Sen said. “There will be some momentum to solve some of these trade wars. If demand is good I think oil prices have a lot of upside here and into next year,” she said. “If demand growth is even 1 million barrels per day I think we could easily be $75 (the price per barrel) if not slightly higher because the physical crude market is still tight.” In its last June monthly report, OPEC predicted oil demand growth to rise by 1.14 million barrels per day in 2019. The majority of oil demand growth is projected to come from India, followed by China.

The Big Minus at the Heart of OPEC-Plus – “OPEC+” is now the accepted nomenclature of the cobbled-together club of oil producers that has been trying to bolster prices since late 2016. As a brand, it has the advantages of a certain familiarity, expansiveness and positivity. It also rather oversells the product. Monday’s meeting of the OPEC bit of things ran very late (the pluses are due to meet Tuesday). This is notable for two reasons. First, the delay reportedly stemmed largely from haggling among delegates about a proposed OPEC+ charter to enshrine cooperation among them. Second, the most salient decision, about whether or not to extend supply cuts, had been taken already by Saudi Arabia and Russia at the weekend’s G-20 gathering in Japan. Once Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and President Vladimir Putin – representing almost half the group’s output between them – had agreed on extending supply cuts, the wider meeting was just a formality. Having everyone schlep to Austria anyway does help with oil demand, one supposes. But there’s something inescapably farcical about a meeting convened after the main decision has been publicized, but which then runs late because the delegates can’t agree on a declaration of harmony. The second iteration of the OPEC+ supply cuts, which got underway in January, called on 21 countries – including 10 OPEC members – to keep about 1.2 million barrels a day off the market. Iran, Libya, and Venezuela – beset by sanctions, civil conflict and economic collapse, respectively – are exempt. When you look at the actual breakdown of cuts since then, however, it reinforces the sense that the group’s meetings are more theater than anything else at this point. Consider that half the members subject to the agreement are tasked with the equivalent of a cover-charge to get into the club: cutting output by just 20,000 barrels a day or less. Having more countries sign up no doubt makes for a better group photograph. But the idea that anyone is actually tracking South Sudan’s compliance with its commitment to keep all of 3,000 barrels a day offline tends to detract from the vaunted seriousness of the operation. (Reader, South Sudan isn’t complying.) The group as a whole has done better, keeping an average of 1.33 million barrels a day off the market through May, for compliance of 111%. But the burden falls very unevenly. Saudi Arabia accounts for more than half the total barrels withheld, with compliance of 216%. Trusted partner Russia, on the other hand, has met only 64% of its (smaller) pledge – and even that’s partly due to contamination problems on a major pipeline. But it’s the exempted countries – OPEC-minus? – that really show up the whole project. No quotas are enforced for Iran, Libya and Venezuela, of course. But taking 3% off their October 2018 output – which is roughly how the others were set – provides a proxy for what they might have been expected to contribute. On that basis, these three really punch above their weight:

OPEC’s Barkindo says warmer ties with Russia haven’t changed decision-making on oil supplies – OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo said Tuesday that while his relationship with Russia is “strong,” the decision-making process at OPEChasn’t fundamentally changed.The oil-producing cartel has officially agreed to extend production curbs until March 2020 and has also formalized a charter to strengthen its alliance with non-OPEC producers – most notably Russia.The deal appears to have been rubber-stamped before OPEC’s Vienna meeting when Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman met at the G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan, over the weekend.That has led to some suggestion that OPEC’s new charter is now ignoring the voice of original member countries in order to keep Moscow happy. Barkindo told CNBC’s Dan Murphy in Vienna on Tuesday that in fact member countries were pleased by Moscow’s interventions.“The Russian federation has been a reliable and dependable bridge between OPEC and non-OPEC,” Barkindo said.The OPEC leader said his organization had worked with Russian officials to “literally rescue” the oil industry from a downturn and many had doubted that oil supply caps could ever hold. “There is now a very strong working bond between us and Russia, and this goes right up to the top, to the leadership,” he said.

OPEC head: Climate activists are the ‘greatest threat’ to oil industry – What’s one of the world’s most powerful cartels afraid of? A bunch of meddling kids.Climate activists and their “unscientific” claims are “perhaps the greatest threat to our industry going forward,” said Mohammed Barkindo, the secretary general of OPEC (the cartel representing 14 countries with 80 percent of the world’s oil reserves) earlier this week.He might have been talking about protesters more broadly, but the rest of his statement suggests that young people are being particularly irksome. Barkindo said some of his colleague’s children are asking them about the future because “they see their peers on the streets campaigning against this industry.” (I guess the birds and the bees isn’t the most uncomfortable conversation parents are having with their kids in OPEC households.) This is, of course, heartening news for climate activists. Greta Thunberg, the 16-year-old Swede famous for starting a movement of youth strikes calling for climate action, thanked OPEC for the compliment.Barkindo is right that climate advocates are winning over the hearts and minds of the people. Surveys show that 57 percent of Americans now think fossil fuel companies are at least partially responsible for climate change. Meanwhile, support for policies that would cut into fossil fuel companies’ bottom lines, like transitioning to renewable energy infrastructure, is increasing as approval for expanding fossil fuel infrastructure and offshore drilling declines. As for climate activists’ “unscientific claims,” it’s unclear if Barkindo had a particular statement in mind, but the science pretty unequivocally supports demands for urgent change. Global emissions need to be drastically cut by 2050 to avoid more than 1.5 degrees C of warming, and to do that we need to use way less fossil fuels. It’s not just public opinion that’s turning against the fossil fuel industry – insurance companies and investors are increasingly opting to put their money elsewhere. But that’s not the fault of some upstart kids: It’s because science and common sense are showing fossil fuels are a bad investment, especially in the long run. Recent figures estimate that climate change could cost the world economy as much as $69 trillion by 2100.

Oil prices slip as demand worries outweigh OPEC supply cuts – Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as worries that a weakening global economy would dent demand for the commodity outweighed OPEC’s decision to extend supply cuts until next March. Brent crude futures for September delivery had dropped 33 cents, or 0.5%, to $64.73 a barrel by 0034 GMT. They climbed more than $2 a barrel on Monday before paring gains later in the day. U.S. crude futures for August had fallen 48 cents, or 0.8%, to $58.61 a barrel, after touching their highest in over five weeks on Monday.“After 2-1/2 years of production cuts, the effects of rolling over production cuts is losing steam,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York, adding that markets remained nervous on how demand will pan out over the next few months.“The trade war is not likely to get resolved any time soon and while central banks globally are expected to deliver fresh stimulus in the coming months, economic activity is continuing to trend lower.”The U.S.-China trade conflict has pressured global markets, stoking worries about demand for commodities such as crude oil.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed on Monday to extend oil supply cuts until March 2020 as the group’s members overcame their differences in order to try to prop up the price of crude.OPEC is slated to meet with Russia and other producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, later on Tuesday to discuss supply cuts amid surging U.S. output.Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday he had agreed with Saudi Arabia to extend global output cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day, or 1.2% of world demand, until December 2019 or March 2020. Russia reduced oil production in June by more than the amount agreed in a global deal to cut output, the energy minister and industry sources said on Monday, as the sector still felt the impact of a contaminated crude crisis that crippled exports.

US oil plunges 4.8% on demand worries even as OPEC, allies extend cuts – Oil prices fell about 3% on Tuesday, even after OPEC and allies including Russia agreed to extend supply cuts until next March, as weak manufacturing data had investors worried that a slowing global economy could dent oil demand. Brent crude futures fell $2.61, or 4.01%, to $62.45 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $2.84, or 4.8%, to $56.25 a barrel, after touching their highest in more than five weeks on Monday.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers such as Russia, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Tuesday to extend oil supply cuts until March 2020 as members overcame differences to try to prop up prices.The extension comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday he had agreed with Saudi Arabia to prolong the pact and continue to cut combined production by 1.2 million barrels per day, or 1.2% of world demand. “There seems to be some disappointment that OPEC didn’t make a larger production cut. Or a sense that demand is really bad,” Signs of a global economic slowdown, which could hit oil demand growth, means OPEC and its allies could face an uphill battle to shore up prices by reining in supply. “It was the bare minimum OPEC could agree on in order to prevent a major meltdown in prices. Member countries noted that global oil demand growth for this year has fallen to 1.14 mbpd (million barrels per day) whilst non-OPEC supply is expected to grow by 2.14 mbpd,” “It appears that the supply side of the oil equation is supportive for oil prices but demand concerns are forcing oil bulls to keep at least part of their gunpowder dry.”

Bigger-Than-Expected Crude Draw Fails To Revive Oil’s Worst OPEC Reaction Since 2014 — (graphs) Oil suffered its worst reaction to an OPEC meeting since 2014 today, plunging almost 5% prompting OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo to tell reporters in Vienna that, “the drop in crude prices on Tuesday was an ‘anomaly’.” Not everyone agreed.“There are concerns that demand might slow to where it overpowers supply,” Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at Toronto’s TD Securities, said in an interview. The “gloomy” data, especially from China, “is very much part and parcel of what we’re seeing.” API

• Crude -5mm (-3mm exp)
• Cushing +882k (-1.26mm exp)
• Gasoline -387k (-2.2mm exp)
• Distillates -1.7mm (=1.0mm exp)

After last week’s huge crude draw, expectations were for another decent-sized draw and API reported a bigger than expected crude draw… WTI rolled over at a key trendline level… But was unable to hold a modest rebound after the API print…

Oil Continues Freefall Despite Large Crude Oil Inventory Draw – The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported another large crude oil inventory draw of 5 million barrels for the week ending June 27, a more ambitious draw than analysts had predicted, at 2.484-million barrels.Last week, the API reported a draw of 7.55-million barrels. A day later, the EIA estimated that US inventories had drawn down by a much larger 12.8 million barrels. The net build is 21.69 million barrels for the 27-week reporting period so far this year, using API data. Oil prices were trading down significantly on Tuesday despite OPEC’s success at pulling a deal together to extend the production cuts into 2020. The hard-fought battle won, OPEC was unable to offset the dampened mood brought on by grim oil demand prospects and an unsettled US-China trade row. At 12:56pm EST, WTI was trading down by $1.92 (-3.25%) at $57.17 – just $1.00 over last week’s levels. Brent was trading down $1.69 (-2.60%) at $63.37 – also up roughly $1 over this time last weekThe API this week reported a 387,000-barrel draw in gasoline inventories for week ending June 27. Analysts estimated a larger draw in gasoline inventories of 2.175-million barrels for the week.Distillate inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels for the week, while inventories at Cushing rose by 882,000 million barrels.US crude oil production as estimated by the Energy Information Administration showed that production for the week ending June 21 fell again this week to 12.1 million bpd, the third such drop in as many weeks, and 300,000 bpd off the all-time high. By 4:41pm EST, WTI had fallen nearly 5% on the day to $56.29 while Brent traded at $62.59.

Oil prices unimpressed by new OPEC cuts agreement – Crude prices weakened on Tuesday and Wednesday despite a deal by oil producing countries to continue with production curbs.The 14-nation energy cartel, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and non-members which support its aims agreed a nine-month extension to output limits first imposed at the end of 2016.But key crude benchmarks turned downwards, with Brent losing 0.46% to $64.76 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) losing the same percentage, 0.46%, to $58.82.This morning, Brent was down 0.18% at $62.29 a barrel, and WTI closed last night at $56.25.Both are markedly lower than they were three months ago. On 2 April, Brent traded at $69.37, while WTI changed hands at $62.58.A squeeze on prices is coming from two directions – the slowing of the world economy and the rising output of America’s shale oil industry.This presented a sombre backdrop for the two-day summit in Vienna held Monday and Tuesdayinvolving OPEC and the so-called NOPEC group of oil producers.In a statement after the meeting, OPEC said: “It was noted that economic bearishness is now increasingly prevalent, with major challenges and mounting uncertainties related to ongoing trade negotiations, monetary policy developments, as well as geo-political issues. “It was also observed that oil demand growth for 2019 has been revised down.”

Oil prices steady on extended supply cuts, US stocks draw – Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday after a steep fall in the previous session, supported by extended output cuts by OPEC and its allies despite concerns that a slowing global economy could crimp demand. An expected large draw in U.S. crude oil inventories also underpinned sentiment after a bigger-than-expected stocks fall in a private survey. Brent crude futures for September delivery were trading up 36 cents, or 0.6%, at $62.76 a barrel by 0244 GMT. U.S. crude futures for August were up 29 cents, or 0.5%, at $56.54 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than 4% on Tuesday as worries about a slowing global economy overshadowed OPEC supply cuts. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers such as Russia, a group known as OPEC+, agreed on Tuesday to extend oil supply cuts until March 2020 as members overcame differences to try to prop up prices. “The OPEC+ meeting showed the members sticking together in tough times, characterized by weakening global demand outlook, aiming for a more balanced oil market, despite clear market share implications,” said Amarpreet Singh, analyst at Barclays Commodities Research in a note. “This is supportive of oil prices, in our view, even as the market remains squarely focused on weak macro signals.” Ahead of government data due later on Wednesday, industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) said that U.S. crude inventories fell by 5 million barrels last week, more than the expected decrease of 3 million barrels. The OPEC+ agreement to extend oil output cuts for nine months should draw down oil inventories in the second half of this year, boosting oil prices, said analysts from Citi Research in a note. “Keeping cuts through the end of 1Q aims to avoid putting oil into the market during a seasonal low for demand and refinery runs, as well as providing time to assess the impacts of IMO 2020,” they said.

WTI Tumbles After Smaller-Than-Expected Crude Draw – Oil prices are up modestly overnight, after yesterday’s worst post-OPEC reaction since 2014, as API’s notable crude draw sparked optimism for this morning’s official inventory data.“Clearly, there is no getting away from economic bearishness and cooling demand fundamentals,” PVM Oil Associates Ltd. analyst Stephen Brennock wrote in a report.“This morni ng, however, has provided a reprieve from the selling frenzy as those searching for a bullish catalyst pin their hopes on another drawdown in U.S. oil inventories.” DOE:

• Crude -1.085mm (-3.5mm exp)
• Cushing +652k (-1.26mm exp)
• Gasoline -1.583mm (-2.2mm exp)
• Distillates +1.408mm (+1.0mm exp)

After last week’s massive crude draw (and API’s overnight draw), expectations were for a notable draw from DOE but it disappointed with only a 1.09mm draw (-3.5mm exp). US crude production has been the talk of the global energy markets this week as OPEC+ desperately try not to admit their impotence and rose modestly last week…

Oil Markets Not Impressed By Small Crude Draw – A day after the American Petroleum Institute’s estimated a 5-million-barrel crude oil inventory draw and failed to reverse oil prices’ fall, the Energy Information Administration failed at that, too by reporting only a moderate draw.The authority reported a draw of 1.1 million barrels for the week to June 28, after a draw of 12.8 million barrels for the previous week – an inventory change of such magnitude it strengthened prices for the rest of the week. At 468.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories were 5 percent above the upper limit of the five-year average, the EIA also said, adding refineries processed 17.3 million bpd last week, unchanged from the previous week’s daily processing rate.Gasoline inventories shed 1.6 million barrels last week, with production averaging 9.9 million bpd. This compared with an inventory draw of 1 million barrels the week before and average daily production 10.5 million bpd.In distillate fuels, the EIA reported an inventory build of 1.4 million barrels for the last week of June, with production standing at 5.3 million bpd. A week earlier, distillate fuel inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels and production was the same at 5.3 million bpd.Last week, the EIA said U.S. crude oil production had surged to 12.16 million bpd during May, a record-high cementing the country’s place as the world’s top crude oil producers. While in line with the Trump administration’s energy dominance strategy and in favor of drivers, the news is not particularly good for the companies that made this level of production possible. Most shale oil companies are burning cash with only a handful of them generating a positive cash flow. This casts a shadow over the long-term sustainability of the industry, which basically needs to keep pumping to pay its debts right now, according to some industry insiders.

Oil prices fall on signs of slowing US demand, economic concerns – Oil prices fell on Thursday, weighed down by data showing a smaller-than-expected draw on U.S. crude stockpiles and worries about the global economy. Front-month Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were down 49 cents or 0.77% at $63.33 per barrel by 0830 GMT. Brent closed up 2.3% on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 47 cents or 0.82% at $56.87 per barrel. WTI closed up 1.9% on Wednesday. Markets appeared unmoved by the detention in Gibraltar by British Royal Marines of a supertanker possibly carrying Iranian crude oil bound for Syria, as tensions between Iran and the United States have flared over mysterious attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Oman in recent months. “Gains were capped by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reporting a weekly decline of 1.1 million barrels in crude stocks, versus the 3 million barrels forecast by analysts and 5 million barrels reported by the API a day earlier,” Cantor Fitzgerald Europe said. “Also providing headwinds were signs of a recovery in oil exports from Venezuela in June and growth in Argentinian output in May,” it added. U.S. inventories fell less than expected as U.S. refineries last week consumed less crude than the week before and processed 2% less oil than a year ago, the EIA data showed, despite being in the midst of the summer gasoline demand season. That suggests oil demand in the United States, the world’s biggest crude consumer, could be slowing amid signs of a weakening economy. New orders for U.S. factory goods fell for a second straight month in May, government data showed on Wednesday, adding to the economic concerns. The weak U.S. data followed a report of slow business growth in Europe last month as well.

US oil rises, but gain kept in check amid weak economic data — U.S. benchmark crude prices rose slightly on Friday, but its gains were capped by weak economic indicators while Brent oil jumped, supported by tensions over Iran and this week’s decision by OPEC and its allies to extend a supply cut deal until next year. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 28 cents, or 0.5% at $57.65 per barrel. There was no settlement price on Thursday because of the Independence Day holiday in the United States. Front-month Brent crude futures were up $1.05, or 1.7%, at $64.36per barrel. Both benchmarks were set for their biggest weekly falls in five weeks. In a protracted trade war between the United States and China that dampened prospects of global economic growth and oil demand, representatives of both countries are resuming talks next week to resolve the deadlock. “The truce between the United States and China is not translating into anything in the real economy in the short term,” said Olivier Jakob, Petromatrix oil analyst. “The negotiations still have to happen and until then we will be still looking at very weak manufacturing PMIs,” he said referring to Purchasing Managers’ Indices which indicate companies’ optimism about their sector. German industrial orders fell far more than expected in May, and the Economy Ministry warned on Friday that this sector of Europe’s largest economy was likely to remain weak in the coming months. In the United States, new orders for factory goods fell for a second straight month in May, government data showed on Wednesday, stoking economic concerns. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported a weekly decline of 1.1 million barrels in crude stocks, much smaller than the 5 million barrel draw reported by the American Petroleum Institute earlier in the week and analyst expectations.

Oil prices rise on Iran tensions, OPEC output cuts – Brent crude futures settled at $64.23 a barrel, up 93 cents, or 1.47%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 settled at $57.51 a barrel, up 17 cents. The U.S. market was closed on Thursday for a national holiday. Both benchmarks were down for the week as concerns about a slowing global economy outweighed risks to supply. Brent recorded a 3.3% weekly loss and WTI shed roughly 1.8%. The U.S.-China trade war has dampened prospects of global economic growth and oil demand, but talks resume next week in a bid to resolve the deadlock. “The complex is maintaining a heavy feel that was set into motion earlier this week by mounting expectations of a global economic slowdown that will be impacting oil demand,” German industrial orders fell far more than expected in May, and the Economy Ministry said this sector of Europe’s largest economy was likely to remain weak in coming months. The U.S. Labor Department said nonfarm employers added 224,000 jobs last month, the most in five months. However, new orders for U.S. factory goods fell for a second straight month in May, government data showed, stoking economic concerns. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers such as Russia, known as OPEC+, supported prices by extending their deal on supply cuts. Tension in the Middle East also offered support, particularly to Brent. “Brent is pricing in more of the geopolitical risk than WTI,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. Iran threatened to capture a British ship after British forces seized an Iranian tanker in Gibraltar over accusations the ship was violating EU sanctions on Syria. [nL8N2461KI] “If Britain does not release the Iranian oil tanker, it is the authorities’ duty to seize a British oil tanker,” a Revolutionary Guards Commander wrote on Twitter.

US oil prices edge higher, but still end lower for the week – U.S. oil futures edged higher on Friday, but still marked their first weekly loss in three weeks as upbeat monthly U.S. jobs data failed to ease worries about a slowdown in energy demand. August West Texas Intermediate oil rose 17 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $57.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was up a second straight session, but posted a weekly loss of roughly 1.6%, following two consecutive weeks of gains.

Iran says it has breached 2015 nuclear deal’s stockpile limit – Iran has breached the limit of its enriched uranium stockpile set in a 2015 deal with major powers, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Monday, according to the ISNA news agency, defying a warning by European co-signatories to stick to the deal despite U.S. sanctions. Zarif confirmed that Iran had exceeded the relevant limit of 300 kg of uranium hexafluoride (UF6), but Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi said Iran’s steps to decrease its commitments to the nuclear deal were “reversible.” The International Atomic Energy agency (IAEA) said that its inspectors were verifying whether Iran had accumulated more enriched uranium than allowed. “Our inspectors are on the ground and they will report to headquarters as soon as the LEU (low-enriched uranium) stockpile has been verified, a spokesman for the U.N. agency said. Enriching uranium to a low level of 3.6% fissile material is the first step in a process that could eventually allow Iran to amass enough highly-enriched uranium to build a nuclear warhead. Last Wednesday, the IAEA verified that Iran had roughly 200 kg of low-enriched uranium, just below the deals 202.8 kg limit, three diplomats who follow the agencys work told Reuters. A quantity of 300 kg of UF6 (uranium hexafluoride) corresponds to 202.8 kg of LEU. After talks on Friday in Vienna, Iran said European countries had offered too little in the way of trade assistance to persuade it to back off from its plan to breach the limit, a riposte to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision last year to quit the deal and reimpose economic sanctions.

Iran breaches uranium stockpile limit set by nuclear deal (AP) – Iran has broken the limit set on its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, international inspectors and Tehran said Monday, marking its first major departure from the unraveling agreement a year after the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the accord.The announcement by Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and later confirmation by the U.N. nuclear watchdog puts new pressure on European nations trying to save the deal amid President Donald Trump’s maximalist campaign targeting Tehran. Iran separately threatened to raise its uranium enrichment closer to weapons-grade levels on July 7 if Europe fails to offer it a new deal.It also further heightens tensions across the wider Middle East in the wake of Iran recently shooting down a U.S. military surveillance drone, mysterious attacks on oil tankers that America and the Israelis blame on Tehran, and bomb-laden drone assaults by Yemen’s Iranian-backed rebels targeting Saudi Arabia. Those rebels claimed a new attack late Monday on Saudi Arabia’s Abha airport that the kingdom said wounded nine people, including one Indian.The European Union urged Iran to reverse course and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the action “a significant step toward making a nuclear weapon.” Iran long has insisted its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, despite Western fears about it.At the White House, Trump told reporters Iran was “playing with fire,” and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called on the international community to require Iran to suspend all enrichment, even at levels allowed under the nuclear deal. “The Iranian regime, armed with nuclear weapons, would pose an even greater danger to the region and to the world,” Pompeo said in a statement.

Iran breached its uranium stockpile limit under the nuclear deal. Here’s what that actually means – Iran has now exceeded its internationally-agreed stockpile limit of low-enriched uranium, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed Monday, breaching a key tenet of the 2015 nuclear deal that the President Donald Trumpadministration abandoned last year. Zarif said Iran has surpassed 300kg (661 pounds) of uranium hexafluoride (UF6), the equivalent of 202.8kg of low-enriched uranium, Iran’s limit under the nuclear deal. Uranium enriched to the low level of 3.67% fissile material, allowed under the deal, is the initial step in a complex process that could, over time, enable Iran to accumulate enough highly-enriched uranium to build a nuclear warhead, according to experts. Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi, however, said that Iran’s breaches of the deal were “reversible”.But what does exceeding a certain amount of low-enriched uranium actually mean? How much closer does this bring Iran to nuclear bomb-making capability? Nuclear experts interviewed by CNBC say this is far less threatening than it sounds.”Even once Iran crosses the 300kg threshold, they are still a long way off from having a stockpile sufficient to produce a bomb,” Anne Harrington, professor of international relations and a specialist in nuclear nonproliferation at Cardiff University in Wales, told CNBC in an email.That’s because low-enriched uranium is only 3.67% U-235 â  – the uranium isotope needed to create a nuclear weapon â  – and is impractical for use in a weapon, Harrington explained. “At 3.67% they would need to stockpile approximately three times the current limit to have enough material for one bomb, and that material would need to be further enriched.” You still need to fit it into a device, you need precision engineering to design the core, you also need

Iranian president says Iran to drop more of nuke commitments (Xinhua) — Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said here Wednesday that the Islamic republic will abandon more of its nuclear commitments in the coming days if the parties to the Iranian 2015 international nuclear deal fail to observe their commitments. Iran will increase the percentage of its enriched uranium to higher purity from July 7 on, Rouhani was quoted as saying by Tasnim news agency. “As of July 7, our uranium enrichment will not be limited to 3.67 percent of purity,” he said. “We will increase it based on our needs.” After one year of U.S. unilateral exit from the Iranian landmark nuclear deal, Iran withdrew from implementing part of the nuclear deal on May 8 and threatened to take more actions in case Tehran’s interests under the pact cannot be guaranteed. At that time, Iran set a 60-day deadline for the Europeans to help the Islamic republic reap the economic benefits of the deal. Rouhani, who was talking in a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, also said that Iran’s Arak heavy water nuclear reactor, which was agreed to be redesigned under the 2015 nuclear agreement, will resume its previous activities after July 7 if the other signatories to the deal fail to uphold their end of the deal, according to Press TV. Under the Iranian nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran agreed to redesign the 40-megawatt Arak research reactor to cut its potential output of plutonium. Rouhani said Iran’s imminent move concerning the Arak reactor could only be reversed “if they (the other signatories) act on all of their commitments concerning the facility.” Moreover, the Iranian president slammed the EU-designed payment channel as an “empty” mechanism. “Empty Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) is of no use to us … it is void and nothing is in it” to protect Iran’s interests under the 2015 nuclear deal, he said.

“Maximum Pressure” Campaign Fails To Kill Off Iran’s Oil Exports – U.S.-Iran tensions are once again heating up, even as Iran has so far managed to stabilize oil exports at lower levels.Iran has officially breached the limits of low-enriched uranium as part of the 2015 nuclear deal, according to inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency. A few weeks ago Iran announced its intention to increase uranium stockpiles, stating that it no longer made sense to remain in an agreement that the U.S. has already pulled out of. There is also little to gain for Iran to continue to adhere to the nuclear deal if it nonetheless faces crippling U.S. sanctions.As a result, the Trump administration’s stated desire of its “maximum pressure” campaign – to constrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions – is predictably having the opposite result. On Monday, the White House issued a statement, calling Iran’s decision “a mistake,” before bizarrely claiming that there “is little doubt that even before the deal’s existence, Iran was violating its terms.” Then, the statement went on to say: “We must restore the longstanding nonproliferation standard of no enrichment for Iran,” which, to be clear, was not the standard in years past. Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif mocked the statement on Twitter. For his part, President Trump has gone back and forth, warning last month that Iran faced “obliteration” if the two went to war, while also saying that he was willing to meet and negotiate with Iran without any preconditions. He also notably pulled back from a military strike last month, to the chagrin of some hardliners in Washington. On Monday, as Iran breached uranium stockpile limits, Trump said Iran was “playing with fire.” Notably, China and some officials from Europe were not pleased with Iran’s decision to breach limits of the nuclear agreement. French President Emmanuel Macron expressed “his attachment to the full respect of the 2015 nuclear accord and asks Iran to reverse without delay this excess, as well as to avoid all extra measures that would put into question its nuclear commitments.” Last week Macron warned Iran’s President that violating the terms of the nuclear agreement would be unwise. The UK voiced similar concerns. Europe has tried to offer enticements to keep Iran within the terms of the nuclear deal, setting up a special financial entity to allow European companies to continue to do business with Tehran. But Iranian foreign minister Zarif said that the efforts are insufficient, especially since it does not allow Iran to continue to export oil. On Monday, he went further. “Our next step will be enriching uranium beyond the 3.67% allowed under the deal,” he said. “The Europeans have failed to fulfil their promises of protecting Iran’s interests under the deal.” However, he also noted that Iran’s actions were “reversible,” suggesting that Iran could pullback if European efforts proved more fruitful.

Stopped Clocks: The European Union Gets War With Iran Exactly Right – Regular readers of my contributions to this site may have noticed that I am in no way a fan of the European Union. Yet even with the EU, the stopped clock principle applies: they have to be right sometimes. And when Federica Mogherini, high representative of the EU for foreign affairs and security policy,said that everyone should tread carefully when it came to the attack on the oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, she was absolutely correct.Mogherini stated: “We are living in crucial and delicate moments, where the most relevant attitude to take – the most responsible attitude to take – is, and we believe should be, maximum restraint, and avoiding any escalation on the military side.”This month, one of the EU’s top advisors on security questions declared that no military intervention from the European side should take place. This echoes French President Emmanuel Macron saying that France had no place in such interventions, as well as German Chancellor Angela Merkel calling for a peaceful solution to the Iran problem. Seventy-four percent of German opposed a military intervention in Syria last year. In 2002, 71 percent of Germans opposed the war in Iraq, as did 64 percent of the French. During anti-Iraq war protests that took place on February 15, 2003, 100,000 people demonstrated in Brussels, 75,000 in Amsterdam, between 100,000 and 200,000 in Paris, between 300,000 and 500,000 in Berlin, 150,000 in Athens, 60,000 in Budapest, and well over 600,000 people in Rome. And in the United Kingdom, more than one million showed up to protest in London. The UK’s participation in the Iraq war dragged the reputation of Prime Minister Tony Blair and his Labour Party through the mud. A subsequent inquiry made the former UK leader subject to public prosecution because the legal basis for military action was “far from satisfactory.” Blair’s involvement in Iraq has made it difficult for any party in Westminster to legitimate any war to its constituents, most of whom feel that the unholy coalition of Blair and Bush tricked them into a war they should never have been a part of. This is a major reason why the British House of Commons voted down David Cameron’s 2013 attempt to intervene militarily in Syria.

Iran Bitcoin Miners Set Up Shop In Mosques Amid Gov’t Crackdown – Iranian bitcoin miners are moving into mosques as the government launches an energy crackdown, social media users revealed on June 25. CoinTelegraph’s William Suberg reports that Iran, which offers free energy to mosques, now has around 100 miners occupying places of worship, generating much-needed income of around $260,000 a year. “This money goes a long way in Iran’s choked sanctioned economy,” Oxford University researcher Mahsa Alimardani explained on Twitter. Despite its increasingly troubled economic situation, Iran remains uncoordinated when it comes to cryptocurrency policy. Last year, the central bank officially forbade lenders from servicing crypto businesses, at the same time as officials said they would consider launching their own digital token. Now, after bitcoin mining allegedly contributed to a 7% spike in power consumption in June, 1,000 miners have been seized, Cointelegraph reported on Tuesday. “Two of these bitcoin farms have been identified, with a consumption of one megawatt,” Reuters additionally quoted Arash Navab, an official from the energy industry in Yazd province, as telling state television. Tehran had previously recognized domestic cryptocurrency mining as an industry. However, as CoinTelegraph’s Ana Alexandre notes, an Oxford researcher told the BBC that Iranians are increasingly turning to cryptocurrencies like bitcoin as a means of skirting sanctions.

The wife of the Emir of Dubai has run away to London, reportedly after learning disturbing details about a failed escape attempt by another princess — The wife of Dubai Emir Sheikh Mohammed al-Maktoum has fled the country and is hiding in London, reportedly driven away by chilling details about the capture of a princess who tried to flee in 2018.Princess Haya bint al-Hussein fled to her $107 million (R1.5 billion) town house in Kensington Palace Gardens in mid-June. She is now bringing a case for divorce against her husband, the vice president of the United Arab Emirates, sources close to the princess told the BBC. She has brought her son Zayed, aged 7, and daughter Al Jalila, aged 11, to London with her, the Daily Beast reported.That the princess had escaped the royal household was first alleged by senior Jordanian journalist Osama Fawzi on his YouTube channel on June 22.A spokesman for the UAE government told Business Insider: “The UAE government does not intend to comment on allegations about individuals’ private lives.”According to the BBC, Princess Haya, the daughter of King Hussein of Jordan, fled after learning details about the disappearance of one of her husband’s 23 daughters last year. Princess Latifa reportedly spent seven years planning her escape from Dubai, enlisting the help of a former French spy, her Finnish martial arts teacher, and an escape boat flying a US flag to deter pursuers. The princess, aged 32 at the time, got within touching distance of Goa, 1,200 miles (1,900 km) away on India’s west coast, but was chased down by Emirati commandos and returned to Dubai in March 2018. She has not been heard from since, with activists fearing she has been jailed indefinitely. Before she fled Princess Latifa made a video detailing alleged abuse and trauma at the hands of her 69-year-old father. She entrusted the tape to her lawyer, who was instructed to release it if her escape attempt went wrong, (embedded here)

Saudi Arabia holds Iranian oil tanker in Jeddah – Saudi Arabia is holding an Iranian oil tanker in the port of Jeddah, sources in Tehran said yesterday. The tanker docked in Jeddah for emergency repairs following “engine failure and the loss of control” two months ago. Now the Saudi authorities are demanding that Iran should pay $200,000 for every day that the vessel has been in dock, Russia Today has reported. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh told reporters on Wednesday that officials at the National Iranian Oil Tanker Company are following up on the matter. The problem, he insisted, will be solved soon. “The issue has financial implications for Iran,” the minister added, “but we are more concerned about a possible environmental disaster in the region.” A number of Iranian officials have criticised the Saudi demand, which they describe as “illegal”.

Saudi-led coalition airstrikes kill all eight members of family in Yemen – A pair of airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition on Monday killed at least eight civilians – all members of a single family – in Yemen’s northwestern Amran province near the capital, Sanaa, security officials said. The airstrikes, which hit sites in the al-Barid neighborhood in the city of Amran, also wounded over 20 people, the officials said. Also Monday, the Saudi-led coalition claimed that one of their airstrikes killed at least 41 Shiite rebels, known as Houthis, including eight Lebanese Hezbollah members who were fighting with them, in Yemen’s northern Saada province. Meanwhile, in the port city of Hodeida, officials and witnesses said hundreds of families have been forced to leave their homes in the surrounding province, about two weeks after the coalition launched an assault to take Hodeida from the Houthis. A convoy of at least 50 vehicles, carrying hundreds of people, has left the city, heading to the southwestern city of Taiz, they said. All the officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media while the witnesses feared for their safety. The Saudi-led coalition launched the campaign to retake Hodeida earlier this month, with Emirati troops leading the force of government soldiers and irregular militia fighters backing Yemen’s exiled government. Saudi Arabia has provided air support, with targeting guidance and refueling from the United States. Hodeida, home to 600,000 people, is some 150 kilometers (90 miles) southwest of Sanaa. The campaign to take Hodeida threatens to worsen Yemen’s humanitarian situation as it’s the main entry point for food, humanitarian aid and fuel supplies to the country. Aid groups fear a protracted fight could force a shutdown of the port and potentially tip millions into starvation. Some 70 percent of Yemen’s food enters via the port, as well as the bulk of humanitarian aid and fuel supplies. Around two-thirds of the country’s population of 27 million relies on aid and 8.4 million are at risk of starving,

Yemen’s Houthis attack Saudi’s Abha airport, injuring civilians – A Yemeni rebel attack on a civilian airport in southern Saudi Arabia wounded nine civilians on Tuesday, a Riyadh-led coalition said, the latest in a series of attacks on the airport. “The terrorist attack on Abha airport … led to the injury of nine civilians, including eight Saudi citizens and one carrying an Indian passport,” the military coalition said in a statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency. Earlier, the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels said they “launched a wide operation aimed at warplanes at Abha international airport” with drones, according to their Almasirah television channel.Abha airport has come under repeated missile and drone attacks in the past several weeks. On June 12, a rebel missile attack on Abha airport wounded 26 civilians, drawing promises of “stern action” from the Saudi-Emirati coalition.And on June 23, another rebel attack on Abha airport killed a Syrian national and wounded 21 other civilians, according to the coalition. The Houthis have stepped-up attacks in recent weeks against Saudi Arabia, which has been running a bloody military campaign in the Middle East’s poorest country since 2015.The Houthi rebels took control of vast swaths of the country, including the capital Sanaa, in late 2014, forcing the internationally recognised government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi from power.The raids come amid heightened regional tensions after Washington – a key ally of Riyadh – accused Iran of shooting down a US drone over international waters and of carrying out attacks on oil tankers in the strategic Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly accused Iran of supplying sophisticated weapons to Houthi rebels, a charge Tehran denies.

Israel Ready to Join a US War Against Iran – Israel has spent decades talking up the potential for a war against Iran, and invested heavily in lobbying the US to be hostile toward Iran. Recent talk of the US attacking Iran and starting such a war has Israeli hawks, unsurprisingly, crossing their fingers.Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz says the country is continue to encourage Trump to “press ahead” against Iran, but is also concerned Iran might “accidentally” stumble out of a limited war into a full “military conflagration.”Since Israel will definitely be involved in that war, Katz says that Israel “continues to devote itself to building up its military might” for the event that they are drawn into a US-Iran War, a war that to be clear Israel has been trying to con the US into starting for many years. European nations are still trying to prevent such a war, and trying to save the P5+1 nuclear deal, which the US has withdrawn from, and which Israel has opposed from the start. Iranian officials express hope for such a deal, so long as the Europeans can ensure sanctions relief.

Netanyahu Says Israel Preparing Large-Scale Gaza Military Operation – With his political campaign continuing to be built on him being the farthest right-wing, and most hawkish candidate, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed a meeting of the security cabinet in which the army was told to prepare for a wide-scale military campaign inside the Gaza Strip. It’s unlikely that such an instruction to the Israeli Army has any meaning at all, since Israel is seemingly always on the verge of invading the Gaza Strip for some reason or other, and probably is never not making such preparations. Netanyahu said policy toward the Gaza frontier is to either invade Gaza or “restore the calm.” Despite talk of “difficult situations,” it’s not clear anything is really going on in Gaza beyond what usually is. Indeed, it’s not clear what Netanyahu’s “Gaza situation” is, beyond another opportunity for him to talk up the idea of a massive military offensive, a threat which tends to be politically popular within Israel, and which officials feel the need to bring up as a possibility every so often.

Israel’s Supreme Court Throws Out Petition for Palestinian Child Prisoners to Call Parents – Israel’s Supreme Court has refused to hear a petition filed by a human rights organisation which requested that Palestinian child prisoners be allowed to call their parents while in detention. Israeli non-profit “HaMoked: Center for the Defence of the Individual” filed the petition to the Supreme Court, arguing against Israeli procedures which subject those Palestinian minors classified as “security prisoners” to the same restrictions as adult prisoners. This includes refusing them permission to call their parents while in detention, which HaMoked argues can cause severe psychological damage to the children. However, the Supreme Court on Monday dismissed the petition, claiming the case should have first been brought to a lower court on behalf of one or more specific prisoners. Israel’s treatment of child prisoners has long been criticised by human rights organisations. HaMoked argues that the IPS’ handling of Palestinian minors is “contrary to the language and spirit of Israeli law relating to minors in custody […] and contravenes international law, primarily the Convention on the Rights of the Child [UNCRC], to which Israel is signatory”.

Stray Syrian Missile Slams Into Northern Cyprus Following Israeli Raid –An unexpected and rare result of the overnight Israeli airstrikes on Syria, which left as many as six Syrian civilians and an equal number of troops dead, via the BBC: A stray Russian-made missile apparently launched by Syria hit the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus overnight, officials say. Foreign Minister Kudret Ozersay said the air defence missile was thought to have been launched during suspected Israeli air strikes on Syria. The projectile struck a mountainside north of Nicosia, 225km (140 miles) from the Syrian coast, sparking a fire. During the middle of the night air raid which involved Israeli jets reportedly firing from over Lebanese airspace in what’s being considered the largest Israeli attack this year, the Syrian military said it intercepted multiple inbound missiles. Footage from the resulting fire after the errant missile slammed into a mountainside in Cyprus: Reports suggest it was a Soviet-era S-200 surface-to-air missile previously supplied by Moscow that struck some 12 miles north of Nicosia in the Turkish-occupied part of the country, or the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. According to a breaking AFP report: Syria said Israeli jets attacked several military sites near the capital Damascus and the central city of Homs early Monday, killing several people. State news agency SANA said that Syrian air defense had intercepted several of the incoming missiles that were fired from Lebanese airspace. Syria reported its aerial defense systems were active during the assault, which further caused damage to multiple civilian homes in the Damascus suburb of Sahnaya, according to SANA.

Russian Military Intervenes After Deadly Clashes Between Syrian & Turkish Armies – The Russian military quickly intervened to prevent a deadly confrontation between the Syrian and Turkish forces on Saturday.The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) first opened fire on the militant-held Sheir Magher area after the Turkish-backed rebels fired several artillery shells towards their positions in northwestern Hama. The Sheir Magher area is where the Turkish observation post is located in northwestern Hama. Following the Syrian Army attack on the Turkish observation post area, the Russian Armed Forces quickly intervened to prevent further hostilities, a source near the front-lines told Al-Masdar News.The source added that the Russian Armed Forces are currently present in the northwestern countryside of Hama, with many of their soldiers deployed to the towns of Mhardeh and Al-Sqaylabiyeh. Earlier this week, the Syrian Army killed a Turkish soldier in the Sheir Magher area after the former was responding to an attack by the militants in northwestern Hama. The Turkish Armed Forces later retaliated by shelling the Syrian Army checkpoints near Sheir Magher – no casualties were reported. That prior deadly incident involved the Syrian Army striking a Turkish observation post in the same area, resulting in the death of one soldier and hospitalization of three others. In retaliation, the Turkish military attacked a couple of the Syrian Army checkpoints in northwestern Hama. Following the incident, the Turkish authorities summoned the Russian military attache in Syria and demanded that they control the Syrian Army in northwestern Hama.

Syria & Iran To Defy Sanctions By Building Railway From Tehran To Mediterranean – Iran is preparing to begin construction on a large railway that links their capital city of Tehran to the Syrian coastal city of Latakia, the Director of Syrian Railways Najib Al-Fares said on Wednesday.According to Fares, the new railway will promote regional trade between Syria, Iraq, and Iran. The new project is expected to be funded by the Iranian government, with support from both Syria and Iraq. The Director of the Iraqi Railway Company, Jawad Kazim, said that Iraq had previously signed contracts to implement projects with Iranian companies, but most were delayed.For Syria, the new railway system is expected to help ease their economic issues that have derived from the U.S.-led sanctions on the Levantine nation.During the signing of the minutes, [Iranian Deputy Minister and Chairman of Roads Maintenance and Transport Organization] Shahram Adamnejad said that the tripartite meeting resulted in positive outcomes among the three sides, affirming that the goal of the negotiations is to activate the Iranian-Iraqi-Syria load and transport corridor as a part of a wider plan for reviving the Silk Road as the three countries have an old experience in the international trade. – Syria’s SANAWhile this should be beneficial for all parties, this new railway system will face heavy criticism and possibly military attack from the U.S. and its allies, most notably Israel.Tripartite meeting of Iran, Iraq, Syria on railways coop. https://t.co/LAzXqnLOzJ – Mehr News Agency (@MehrnewsCom) July 1, 2019 Israel has paid close attention to the Iranian developments in Syria and has often acted when they suspect weapons are being transported across borders.

British Marines Seize Oil Tanker Suspected of Bringing Iranian Oil to Syria – British Royal Marines seized an oil tanker in Gibraltar on Thursday. They suspected the tanker was headed to Syria, which would be a violation of US and EU sanctions. The Grace 1 oil tanker was believed to have started its journey in Iran.“That refinery is the property of an entity that is subject to European Union sanctions against Syria,” Gibraltar Chief Minister Fabian Picardo said. “With my consent, our port and law enforcement agencies sought the assistance of the Royal Marines in carrying out this operation.”About 30 Royal Marines boarded the tanker, some descended down on ropes from a helicopter, others came alongside the tanker in a speedboat. The U.S. and EU have imposed a series of sanctions against the Syrian government, resulting in an acute fuel shortage this past winter. Syrians struggled to heat their homes, the Assad government had to set up oil rationing and any country that tried to relieve them of the shortage was threatened with U.S. sanctions.

Memo to the US – The Winds Are Shifting — Ilargi: The ‘official’ storyline : at the request of the US, Gibraltar police and UK marines have seized an oil tanker in Gibraltar. The super-tanker, 1000 feet (330 meters) long, carrying 2 million barrels, had stopped there after sailing all around the Cape of Good Hope instead of taking the Suez canal on its way, ostensibly, from Iran to Syria. And, according to the storyline as presented to and in the western press, because the EU still has sanctions on Iran, the British seized the ship. Another little detail I really appreciate is that Spain’s acting foreign minister, Josep Borrell, said Madrid was looking into the seizure and how it may affect Spanish sovereignty since Spain does not recognize the waters around Gibraltar as British. That Borrell guy is the newly picked EU foreign policy czar, and according to some sources he’s supportive of Iran and critical of Israel. Them’s the webs we weave. He’s certainly in favor of Palestinian statehood. But we’re wandering…why dock in Gibraltar? Because no problems were anticipated there. However, the US had been following the ship all along, and set this up. A trap, a set-up, give it a name. I would think this is about Iran, not about sanctions on Syria; that’s just a convenient excuse. Moreover, as people have been pointing out, there have been countless arms deliveries to Syrian rebels in the past years (yes, that’s illegal) which were not seized. The sanctions on Syria were always aimed at one goal: getting rid of Assad. That purpose failed either miserably or spectacularly, depending on your point of view. It did achieve one thing though, and if I were you I wouldn’t be too sure this was not the goal all along. That is, out of a pre-war population of 22 million, the United Nations in 2016 identified 13.5 million Syrians requiring humanitarian assistance; over 6 million are internally displaced within Syria, and around 5 million are refugees outside of Syria. About half a million are estimated to have died, the same number as in Iraq. And Assad is still there and probably stronger than ever. But it doesn’t even matter whether the US/UK/EU regime change efforts are successful or not, and I have no doubt they’ve always known this. Their aim is to create chaos as a war tactic, and kill as many people as they can. How do you define terror, terrorism? However you define it, ‘we’ are spreading it.

Iran threatens British shipping in retaliation for tanker seizure – (Reuters) – An Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander threatened on Friday to seize a British ship in retaliation for the capture of an Iranian supertanker by Royal Marines in Gibraltar. “If Britain does not release the Iranian oil tanker, it is the authorities’ duty to seize a British oil tanker,” Mohsen Rezai said on Twitter. The Gibraltar government said the crew on board the supertanker Grace 1 were being interviewed as witnesses, not criminal suspects, in an effort to establish the nature of the cargo and its ultimate destination. U.S. President Donald Trump, while not specifically mentioning the supertanker incident, repeated a warning to Tehran: “We’ll see what happens with Iran. Iran has to be very, very careful,” he told reporters at the White House. British Royal Marines boarded the ship off the coast of the British territory on Thursday and seized it over accusations it was breaking sanctions by taking oil to Syria. They landed a helicopter on the moving vessel in pitch darkness. The move escalates a confrontation between Iran and the West just weeks after the United States called off air strikes on Iran minutes before impact, and draws Washington’s close ally into a crisis in which European powers had striven to appear neutral. A U.S. State Department spokeswoman said, “We welcome international partners’ resolve in upholding and enforcing these sanctions.”

UK shouldn’t be ripping off the people of Libya by spending Gaddafi’s billions – Prof. Richard Wolff -The British government wants to start spending the money earned in taxes from frozen assets of late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. Professor Richard Wolff insists it’s the Libyan people who should get their money back. British lawmakers proposed handing over £17 million earned in taxes from the frozen assets to the victims of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) attacks. This follows a parliamentary report disclosure last month that the UK Treasury took millions of pounds in tax over the past three years from £12 billion of Libyan assets linked to Gaddafi. While lawmakers are trying to clarify if it’s legal to receive money in taxes from the frozen funds of another state, Professor Richard Wolff says the money belongs to the Libyan people and must be returned. “They deserve every bit of the wealth they created and they ought to have that wealth available to them as soon as it possibly can be turned over… because that’s how we run this world. We don’t give over to other countries the wealth produced in our country,” the economist and co-founder of ‘Democracy at Work’ told RT. According to him, the “British should be the most sensitive to all of this because they had the British Empire which for a century or more and in some cases for several centuries ripped off the wealth of vast parts of the world – India, Africa, and so on.” Wolff said “they [the UK] should not be doing this again, especially since they have been involved in some of the political maneuvers that overthrew Gaddafi in Libya, and that threatened the government in Venezuela.”

Libya: Haftar bans flights, boats from Turkey – Libya’s renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar has banned commercial flights from Libyato Turkey and ordered his forces to attack Turkish ships and interests in the country, spokesperson Ahmed al-Mismari has said.Turkey supports Libya’s United Nations-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli which on Wednesday retook Gharyan, a strategic town south of the capital, from Haftar’s self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA).”Orders have been given to the air force to target Turkish ships and boats in Libyan territorial waters,” al-Mismari said on Friday, adding that “Turkish strategic sites, companies and projects belonging to the Turkish state (in Libya) are considered legitimate targets by the armed forces”.Al-Mismari said Turkish aircraft “provided air cover” and bombed LNA positions in the fight for Gharyan.”All flights to and from Turkey are also stopped and any Turkish (nationals) on Libyan territory will be arrested,” he said. Turkey has supplied drones and trucks to forces allied to Tripoli-based Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, while the LNA has received support fromFrance, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, according to diplomats. The LNA, which is allied to a parallel government in the east, has failed to take Tripoli but it has commanded air superiority. It has several times attacked Tripoli’s functioning airport. The capture of Gharyan this week has been seen as a major setback for Haftar’s forces and their campaign to capture the capital. Al-Mismari said his forces had lost 43 soldiers in the battle for Gharyan.

Deadly attack hits Tripoli migrant detention centre: Official – At least 40 people have been killed in an air raid at a detention centre for refugees and migrants in the Libyan capital, Tripoli, according to health and emergency officials. Malek Mersek, a spokesman for the state emergency medical services, said 80 others were wounded in the attack late on Tuesday, which hit the centre located next to a military camp in the eastern suburb of Tajoura. The United Nations-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) blamed the raid on the forces of Libyan renegade General Khalifa Haftar, whose forces have been fighting to seize Tripoli for the past three months. Speaking to state radio al-Wasat, Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha blamed Haftar’s forces, saying that the GNA did not have an aircraft such as the one that carried out the bombing. “This crime came after the statements of the air force commander of Haftar’s Libyan National Army, Muhammad al-Manfour, and therefore it is he who bears its legal and moral responsibility.” On Monday, Manfour said aerial bombardment will be stepped up because “traditional means” to “liberate Tripoli” had been exhausted, and urged residents to stay away from what he called “confrontation areas”. Reporting from the scene after the air raid, Al Jazeera’s Mahmoud Abdelwahed said rescuers were searching for survivors as ambulances rushed in to transfer those wounded to medical centres. “It’s very tragic here, dead bodies are still under the rubble,” he said.

Air strike hits Libya migrant detention center – At least 44 people were killed and 130 more were wounded in an attack on a migrant detention center in a suburb of Libyan capital Tripoli late on Tuesday, according to the United Nations mission. United Nations Libya envoy Ghassan Salame condemned the strike, saying it “clearly amounts to the level of a war crime.” Doctors Without Borders said the detention center in the eastern suburb of Tajoura held 126 migrants. Pictures from the scene showed many bodies strewn among rubble on the ground and African migrants undergoing emergency surgery after the strike. “The absurdity of this ongoing war has today reached its most heinous form and tragic outcome with this bloody, unjust slaughter,” Salame said in a statement. United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres has called for an independent investigation into the circumstances of the air strike. UN’s human rights chief Michelle Bachelet said the attack could amount to a war crime because the fighting sides knew that civilians were detained inside the building.

U.S. Considers Allowing China To Import Oil From Iran -The U.S. Department of State is discussing allowing China to import oil from Iran as payment for a Chinese company’s investment in an Iranian oilfield, Politico reported on Wednesday, citing U.S. officials and sources. The Trump Administration is discussing issuing China a waiver to a 2012 U.S. act on Iranian sanctions that would allow Beijing – Iran’s single biggest oil customer – to import oil from Iran, three U.S. officials told Politico. The discussions revolve around giving China a waiver to import Iranian oil in exchange for investments that China’s Sinopec has made in an oilfield in Iran. U.S. administration officials have offered Sinopec to grant a waiver for the repayment in oil in official correspondence between the Chinese company and the U.S. Department of State, a source familiar with the matter told Politico. The report that the U.S. is mulling over a kind of lenient treatment of Chinese imports of Iranian oil comes days after numerous media reports pointed to China already receiving Iranian oil cargoes despite the U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil, while the official U.S. position continues to be driving Iran’s oil exports down to zero as soon as possible.Now that there are no sanction waivers for Iranian oil buyers, the United Stateswill sanction any imports of crude oil from Iran, the U.S. Special Representative for Iran, Brian Hook, said on Friday, reiterating comments he made last month amid reports that China has already imported its first crude oil cargo from Iran that breaches the U.S. sanctions.“We will sanction any illicit purchases of Iranian crude oil,” Hook said. Hook added that the U.S. would be looking to check reports that Iranian crude oil tankers have departed and arrived in China after the U.S. removed all sanction waivers for all Iranian crude oil customers. Last week, an analysis of TankerTrackers showed that Iran had delivered the first crude oil to a Chinese refinery complex since the United States removed as of May the sanction waivers for Iran’s oil buyers.

China separating Muslim children from families – China is deliberately separating Muslim children from their families, faith and language in its far western region of Xinjiang, according to new research. At the same time as hundreds of thousands of adults are being detained in giant camps, a rapid, large-scale campaign to build boarding schools is under way. Based on publicly available documents, and backed up by dozens of interviews with family members overseas, the BBC has gathered some of the most comprehensive evidence to date about what is happening to children in the region. Records show that in one township alone more than 400 children have lost not just one but both parents to some form of internment, either in the camps or in prison. Formal assessments are carried out to determine whether the children are in need of “centralised care”. Alongside the efforts to transform the identity of Xinjiang’s adults, the evidence points to a parallel campaign to systematically remove children from their roots. China’s tight surveillance and control in Xinjiang, where foreign journalists are followed 24 hours a day, make it impossible to gather testimony there. But it can be found in Turkey. In a large hall in Istanbul, dozens of people queue to tell their stories, many of them clutching photographs of children, all now missing back home in Xinjiang. “I don’t know who is looking after them,” one mother says, pointing to a picture of her three young daughters, “there is no contact at all.”

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