Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 17 June 2019
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, published Monday, Wednesday and Friday, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
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​Global
- Stocks in Asia mixed as investors await Fed meeting (CNBC) Stocks in Asia were mixed on Monday as investors await a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting set to happen later in the week stateside. Mainland Chinese stocks were mixed on the day. The U.S. dollar index was higher at 97.569 after rising from levels below 96.8 last week. Brent crude futures declined 0.58% to $61.65 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures shed 0.48% to $52.26 per barrel. Spot gold was down 0.6% at $1,333.81 per ounce. Gold had hit $1,358.04 on Friday, its highest since April 11, 2018. Bonds were lower (rates higher). At around 7:30 a.m. ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was higher at around 2.11%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was also higher at around 2.607%.
U.S.
- Top 5 takeaways of President Trump’s interview with George Stephanopoulos (ABC News) The 5 biggies:
- Trump says he’d listen to foreign intelligence on political opponents and might not alert the FBI.
- Trump says internal polling shows he’s ‘winning everywhere’ (See next two articles.)
- Trump says it ‘doesn’t matter’ what former White House Counsel Don McGahn told Mueller
- Trump reveals historic redesign of Air Force One
- Trump says of Fed Reserve chairman: ‘I’ve waited long enough’
- The Fed is likely to drop ‘patient’ word this week, clearing way for July cut, economists say (CNBC)
- When Federal Reserve officials meet this week, they are expected to clear the way for a July interest rate cut by downgrading their economic forecast, tweaking the language in their statement and reducing their interest rate forecasts.
- The Fed is expected to remove the word “patient” from its statement, signaling that it is ready to move on interest rate cuts to help the U.S. economy make it through a period of slower growth and the potential impacts of trade wars.
- Fed funds futures are pointing to odds of about 80% for a July cut and about 20% for a June cut
- Fox News Poll: Democrats want a steady leader, Biden leads Trump by 10 points (Fox News) Former Vice President Joe Biden is still, by far, the leader in the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination race. His lead reflects the mood of the party, as Democratic primary voters want someone who will unite Americans, provide steady leadership, and who has high ethical standards. In addition, while Democrats best President Trump in hypothetical matchups and keep his support at 41% or lower, none of the challengers hits 50%. These are some of the findings from the latest Fox News Poll:
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- Trump Campaign to Purge Pollsters After Leak of Dismal Results (The New York Times) President Trump’s campaign has decided to purge some of its pollsters after a leak of dismal internal polls for the president that he denied existed. Just two days before the president is set to kick off his bid for re-election, a top adviser said on Sunday that the campaign was cutting ties with three of its five pollsters to prevent further disclosure of survey data. The polling showed Mr. Trump behind former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in several key battleground states, including by double digits in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The results were confirmed to The New York Times by advisers to Mr. Trump, but when they became public, he called them “fake polls.”
- Texas voters split on Trump reelection: poll (The Hill) Texas voters are evenly split on reelecting President Trump. Among the registered Texan voters in a poll, 39% said they would “definitely” vote to reelect Trump, while 43% said they would “definitely not” vote for him. Another 11% said they would “probably” vote to give Trump a second term, while 7% would “probably not.” For details see Trump’s reelection support is 50-50 in Texas, Biden and O’Rourke lead the Democrats, UT/TT Poll says (The Texas Tribune). See also Trump’s incredible shrinking GOP (The Hill)
- Trump says supporters might ‘demand’ that he serve more than two terms as president (The Washington Post) President Trump on Sunday floated the possibility of staying in office longer than two terms, suggesting in a morning tweet that his supporters might “demand that I stay longer.” The president, who will kick off his reelection campaign on Tuesday with an event in Orlando, has previously joked about serving more than two terms, including at an event in April, when he told a crowd that he might remain in the Oval Office “at least for 10 or 14 years.” The 22nd Amendment of the Constitution limits the presidency to two terms.
- A new migrant surge at the border, this one from central Africa (Boston Globe) For months, a migrant-services center blocks from the Alamo in downtown San Antonio has been packed with Central American families who have crossed the border in record numbers. But in recent days, hundreds of migrants from another part of the world have caused city officials already busy with one immigrant surge to scramble on a new and unexpected one. Men, women, and children from central Africa – mostly from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola – are showing up at the United States’ southwest border after embarking on a dangerous, monthslong journey.
Their arrival at the border and at two cities more than 2,100 miles apart – San Antonio and Portland, Maine – has surprised and puzzled immigration authorities and overwhelmed local officials and nonprofit groups. The surge has prompted Portland to turn its basketball arena into an emergency shelter and depleted assistance funds meant for other groups.
- White House blocked intelligence agency’s written testimony saying climate change could be ‘possibly catastrophic’ (The Washington Post) White House officials barred a State Department intelligence agency from submitting written testimony last week to the House Intelligence Committee warning that human-caused climate change could be “possibly catastrophic.” The move came after State officials refused to excise the document’s references to federal scientific findings on climate change.
The effort to edit, and ultimately suppress, the prepared testimony by the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research comes as the Trump administration is debating how best to challenge the fact that burning fossil fuels is warming the planet and could pose serious risks unless the world makes deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade. Senior military and intelligence officials have continued to warn climate change could undermine America’s national security – a position President Trump rejects.
- Tariffs 101: Understanding Trump’s Trade War (Forbes) Trump is the first president going back to the 1930s to launch a multi-pronged trade war against America’s A-list trading partners. The U.S. hasn’t seen this kind of rough-and-tumble trade action since the Great Depression. Back in the 1930s, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act sought to protect American manufacturing from foreign competitors. Some say it exacerbated the Great Depression. See also Trump’s Weaponizing Of Tariffs Is A Rude Wake-Up Call To Global Financial Markets.
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- Industries Which Benefit from Improved North American Trade (The Daily Shot) These are the industries that will benefit from the de-escalation of North American trade tensions.
EU
- European Institutions (The Daily Shot) Here is an illustration of the EU’s institutions:
- Moving Closer to Japanification (Twitter)
​UK
- Johnson gets boost in race for UK PM’s job as former rival backs him (Reuters) Boris Johnson got a boost in his bid to replace British Prime Minister Theresa May on Monday when one of his former rivals backed him and said he was almost certain to win the contest.
Germany
- Japanification of Germany (Twitter)
Iran
- Iran says it will breach nuclear deal enrichment limit, drawing Western concern (Reuters) Iran said on Monday it would breach internationally agreed curbs on its stock of low-enriched uranium in 10 days — a move likely to worsen already high tensions with Washington — but it added European nations still had time to save a landmark nuclear deal.
Russia
- Exclusive: American banker and Putin ally dealt in access and assets, emails reveal (Reuters) A senior American banker once secretly awarded a shareholding in powerful Moscow investment bank Renaissance Capital to one of Vladimir Putin’s closest friends and brokered meetings for the friend with top U.S. foreign policy officials a decade ago, emails show.
China
- Trump’s China Policy: Simplistic, Inadequate And Harmful (Forbes) The author has substantial doubts that negotiating the most important trade agreement in history via tweets and tariffs is going to succeed, but he remains eager to be proven wrong. A recent column by Gerald F. Seib in the Wall Street Journal points to a potential flaw in America’s approach to China that raises serious doubts about the likelihood of success whether or not some kind of deal is reached:
“[t]he basic assumption Americans held about China for most of the last half-century may no longer hold.” He explains that since the opening to China in the 1970s, successive American administrations assumed that China wanted join the international economic system by effectively adopting a full capitalist model. But it appears that is a fallacy: “As China’s economy has grown, and its global reach has expanded, it no longer feels the need to adapt simply to be accepted into a Western-led financial and trade system.”
- China said on Monday its overall trade surplus in May was $41.65 billion, significantly more than expected.
- Economists polled by Reuters had expected the world’s second largest economy to post an overall trade surplus of $20.5 billion.
- China’s trade surplus with the U.S. rose to $26.89 billion in May from $21.01 billion in April, customs data showed.
- Hong Kong protesters return to streets; leader apologizes but doesn’t withdraw extradition bill (The Washington Post) Protesters filled Hong Kong’s streets again on Sunday, cramming subway stations and turning roads into a sea of black, in another massive hours-long demonstration against their government’s handling of a proposal to allow extraditions to China – even after the city’s leader said she would suspend the bill. Organizers estimated the turnout Sunday at nearly 2 million participants, in a territory of some 7.4 million – making plain the growing rupture between Hong Kong’s government, heavily influenced by Beijing authorities, and its people.
- China stands by Hong Kong leader after days of street protests (Reuters) China doubled down on its support for Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam on Monday after days of protests in the Chinese-ruled city over a planned extradition bill, and a source close to Lam said Beijing was unlikely to let her go even if she tried to resign.
- Massive Protests Force Apology From Hong Kong Leader (Time, Twitter) Click on tweet for video summary.
​Mexico
- Migrants Will Pay The Price Of Mexico’s Tariff Deal With Trump (The Conversation, GEI) Looks like President Trump has gotten Mexico to pay for the wall after all – not the physical wall but a virtual one.
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