Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666
Here are some more selected news articles about the oil and gas industry from the week ended 26 May 2019. Go here for Part 1.
This is a feature at Global Economic Intersection every Monday evening.
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Saudi’s Falih says sees no oil shortage, but OPEC to act if needed (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Saturday that he saw no oil supply shortage as global oil inventories are still rising, particularly from the United States, but OPEC will be responsive to the oil market’s needs. Speaking in Jeddah ahead of a ministerial panel gathering on Sunday of top OPEC and non-OPEC producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, Falih told Reuters OPEC will not decide on output until late June when the group is due to meet next. “I am not sure there is a supply shortage, but we will look at the (market) analysis. We will definitely be responsive and the market will be supplied,” Falih said, when asked whether an increase in output was on the table due to oil shortage concerns. “But all indications are that inventories are still rising. We saw the data from the U.S. week after week, and they are massive increases, so there is obviously supply abundance.” The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other non-OPEC producers, known as OPEC+, agreed to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from Jan. 1 for six months, a deal designed to stop inventories building up and weakening prices. “We will be flexible. We are going to do the right thing as we always do,” Falih said of any decision at the meeting in June on continuing the reductions. Falih said OPEC was guided by two main principles: “One to keep the market in its direction towards balancing, and inventories (are) back to normal level. And two to be responsive to market needs. We will strike the right balance I am sure.” Saudi Arabia does not see a need to quickly boost production now with oil prices around the $70 a barrel level, as it fears a crash in prices and a build-up in inventories, OPEC sources said. But Russia wants to increase supply after June when the current OPEC+ pact is due to expire, the sources said. The United States on the other hand, which is not a member of the OPEC+ but is a close ally of Saudi Arabia, wants the group to boost output to bring oil prices down. Falih has to find a delicate balance between keeping the oil market well supplied and prices high enough for Riyadh’s budget needs, while pleasing Moscow to ensure Russia remains in the OPEC+ pact, and being responsive to the concerns of the United States and the rest of the OPEC+, the sources said.
Russia energy minister sees options for OPEC deal, including production rise — Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said there were different options available for OPEC and its oil-producing allies in the second half of 2019, including a possible raising of output. The OPEC+ alliance held a ministerial monitoring committee meeting, known as the JMMC, on Sunday in the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah. The producers agreed to continue monitoring the oil market and are set to meet again in late June to review their oil supply cut agreement. “As far as our joint plan of action for the second half of the year. We are supportive of continuing our cooperation with our colleagues from other countries,” Novak told CNBC’s Dan Murphy in Jeddah, according to a translation. “But this continuation could depend to various extents on how the situation unfolds by this time and what the forecasts for supply and demand will be on the market. If it turns out that there will be a shortfall in the market then we will be prepared to examine options linked with a possible increase in production,” he said Sunday. His comments come five months into a fresh round of production cuts from OPEC+. The deal is designed to stop inventories building up and weakening prices. Russia has been vocal about raising production while OPEC’s de-facto leader, Saudi Arabia, has been wary of a possible price crash that an output increase could cause. The output cuts have helped oil prices to rise more than 30% so far this year.
Trade war and Iran tensions creating a ‘very unstable’ oil market, Russia minister says – Current geopolitical tensions are making it harder and harder for oil-producing nations to make decisions that will help stabilize crude prices, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told CNBC Sunday. Asked about tensions in the Middle East, Novak said that problems in the region were becoming “greater and greater,” but added that the U.S.-China trade conflict was also having a destabilizing effect. “We have seen in the last few days an exchange of the imposition of customs duties. In addition, we have seen risks of a geopolitical nature with regards to this region,” Novak told CNBC’s Dan Murphy in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, according to a translation. “This all tells us that the market is very unstable. And there are many factors that have become bigger and it’s more complicated to take longer-term decisions that are fundamental to the market,” he added. The comments come amid escalating tensions between Tehran and Washington and just days after drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure carried out by Iranian-aligned Houthi rebels from Yemen. Asked whether Russia could do more to promote security and stability in the region as a friend of Iran, Novak said: “We need to fine tune our relationships as fully as possible so that the issue of energy security is at the forefront.” He caveated that it was hard to comment on this week’s incidents in the Middle East without adequate detail, but said they demonstrate how “fragile the question of achieving and providing energy security is.”
OPEC has two main options for June meeting, both foresee output rise – sources (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia and Russia are discussing two main scenarios for a meeting of OPEC and its oil-producer allies in June and both frameworks propose increased crude output from the second half of 2019, two sources familiar with the matter said. Russia wants to ease the cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) being carried out by the so-called OPEC+ alliance, the sources said. The United States has also urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to boost supply. The sources said OPEC’s first scenario was to eliminate over-compliance with agreed cuts, which would mean increasing output by around 0.8 million bpd. Over-compliance arose from lower exports and output from Iran and Venezuela because of U.S. sanctions, and Saudi output reductions that have been more than called for by the OPEC+ pact. OPEC and its allies are effectively curtailing production by close to 2 million bpd. Another option is to ease the agreed cuts from 1.2 million bpd to 0.9 million bpd, which would mean raising output by some 0.3 million bpd, one source said. OPEC meets on June 25-26 in Vienna.
Saudi Arabia says oil producers want to reduce inventories (Reuters) – Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday there was consensus among OPEC and allied oil producers to drive down crude inventories “gently” but his country would remain responsive to the needs of what he called a fragile market. Falih said a possible rollover in the second half of 2019 of output curbs agreed by OPEC and non-members was the main option discussed at a ministerial panel meeting during the day but “things can change by June”. “This second half, our preference is to maintain production management to keep inventories on their way declining gradually, softly but certainly declining towards normal levels,” he told a news conference after the panel meeting. OPEC, Russia and other non-member producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, agreed to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from Jan. 1 for six months, a deal designed to stop inventories building up and weakening prices. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak earlier said an easing of cuts had been discussed and the supply situation would be clearer in a month, including from countries under sanctions. Two sources said Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, and Russia were discussing two main scenarios for June’s OPEC+ meeting and that both frameworks proposed higher output from the second half. One scenario was to eliminate over-compliance with agreed cuts, which would increase output by some 0.8 million bpd, while the other option was to ease the agreed cuts to 0.9 million bpd. Falih told reporters the market was “very fragile” with conflicting data due to concerns about supply disruptions while inventories rise, but that a “comfortable supply situation” should be seen in weeks and months to come. He said high compliance with the agreed cuts was not sustainable and that over-conformity by some countries “can be reversed in June”. price
OPEC Signals Intention to Limit Supply All Year– Saudi Arabia and other key producers in OPEC signaled their intention to keep oil supplies constrained for the rest of the year, while pledging to prevent any genuine shortages. It was less clear how far Russia, their main partner in the wider OPEC+ producers’ coalition, shared that view. While most nations at a meeting in the kingdom on Sunday supported extending production cuts to the end of the year, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak talked about potentially relaxing the curbs and wanted to wait and see what happens in the next month. “We need to stay the course, and do that for the weeks and months to come,” Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told reporters after the meeting in Jeddah. The kingdom “isn’t fooled” by crude prices, currently above $70 a barrel in London, and believes the market is still fragile. The contrasting messages underscore the uncertainty in the global market. If ministers don’t agree to an extension next month, the production cuts that ended the worst oil-industry downturn in a generation will expire. Yet their decision is clouded by the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran and the risk to demand from President Donald Trump’s trade war with China. In a market where the preponderance of risks are on the supply side — with Venezuela and Libya also facing disruptions — what Saudi Arabia chooses to do with its ample spare production capacity may be the market’s deciding factor in the coming months. The kingdom has so far been trying to strike a balance between its own need for higher revenues to fund government spending, and pleasing Trump by filling any supply gap created by his moves against Iran. On Sunday, Al-Falih gave a strong indication that prices were the priority and he wasn’t about to open the taps. “My recommendation to my colleagues will be to drive inventories down gently” by extending the current cuts into the second half, Al-Falih said. He acknowledged consumers’ concerns about potential supply disruptions and promised to make sure “no refinery, no customer is left without their requirement of crude oil.” Regardless of what OPEC+ decides next month, output in July won’t exceed the kingdom’s limit in the deal of 10.3 million barrels a day, he said. It’s unclear how much Iran is exporting, and so far demand for replacement crude from Tehran’s customers has been lower than expected, Al-Falih said.
OPEC is poised to defy Trump once again by keeping a lid on oil output -Major oil-producing nations are leaning toward keeping a lid on production throughout 2019, defying President Donald Trump’s calls to open the taps and cut the cost of crude. OPEC and a group of allies led by Russia are trying to keep supply and demand in balance and stabilize prices by pumping less oil. Over the weekend, a committee representing the so-called OPEC+ alliance strongly signaled the group will extend the policy, which has helped to boost oil prices by about $20 a barrel this year. If OPEC+ follows that course when producers meet in June, it would be the second time in six months the group ignored Trump, who lobbied against the current production cuts last fall. So long as the production caps remain in place, oil prices are likely to remain anchored near six-month highs around $63 a barrel. That would keep a thorn in Trump’s side. The economy-focused president wants to lower prices at the pump, but his foreign policy is putting upward pressure on oil futures, which in turn increases gasoline costs. Washington has restricted global oil supplies by slapping sanctions on OPEC members Iran and Venezuela. Trump wants his allies in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two of OPEC’s biggest producers, to offset those losses by pumping more oil. But the Saudis and Emiratis have not committed to hiking output. On Sunday, Saudi Arabia’s influential oil minister, Khalid al-Falih, warned that global crude stockpiles are rising, threatening to swamp the world in oil and cause prices to collapse. “Overall, the market is in a delicate situation,” Falih told reporters at the committee meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. “On the one hand, there is a lot of concern – and we acknowledge it – about disruptions and sanctions and supply interruptions,” he said. “But on the other hand, we see inventories rising. We see plentiful supply around the world … which means we think, all in all, we should be in a comfortable situation in the weeks and months to come.”
Political risks may be supporting oil prices, but that’s likely just short term, JP Morgan says — Oil prices jumped on Monday after Saudi Arabia indicated a possible rollover of output curbs amid political supply risks, but that support is likely to be short-lived due to fundamental changes in the energy industry, an expert said on Monday. “It’s alright to talk about supply-side risks, but that’s sort of near-term … I don’t think expectations for oil prices have actually gone up,” said Scott Darling, J.P. Morgan’s head of Asia Pacific oil and gas research. That’s because of the rise of U.S. shale energy and slowing demand due to global economic uncertainties, Darling told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” J.P. Morgan expects OPEC to extend its oil output cuts to 2020. Oil prices jumped on Monday after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih indicated there was a consensus among OPEC and allied oil producers to continue limiting supply. Falih said the main option discussed at a ministerial panel meeting during the day was for a rollover of the output curbs agreed by OPEC and non-members in the second half of 2019. Still, he said, “things can change by June.” OPEC, Russia and other non-member producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, agreed to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day from Jan. 1 for six months, a deal designed to stop inventories building up and weakening prices. Brent crude futures were at $73.23 a barrel at 12:06 p.m. HK/SIN, up $1.02, or 1.4%, from their last close. Brent closed down 0.6% on Friday. J.P. Morgan’s forecast for Brent crude is $75 per barrel by the end of the second quarter of 2019. For the full year, however, Brent crude will average $71 a barrel for 2019 and will weaken to $60 a barrel from 2021, said Darling. Darling’s comments come as the market expects Iranian oil exports to drop further in May and Venezuelan shipments could fall again in coming weeks due to U.S. sanctions.
Funds sell oil as economic fears trump supply threats- Kemp (Reuters) – Hedge funds continued to liquidate some of their bullish position in oil last week as concerns about the economy and the outlook for consumption outweighed escalating tensions and the threat to supplies in the Middle East. Hedge funds and other money managers cut their combined net long position in the six major petroleum futures and options contracts by 19 million barrels in the week to May 14. Fund managers have now cut their net long position for three weeks running, by a total of 61 million barrels, after raising it 609 million barrels over the previous 15 weeks since Jan. 8 (https://tmsnrt.rs/2WShIb7). Selling was concentrated in crude (-22 million barrels) and for the first time spread to Brent (-9 million) as well as NYMEX and ICE WTI (-13 million), according to position records published by regulators and exchanges. By contrast, funds made only small changes in fuels: net purchases of U.S. gasoline (+1 million barrels), sales of U.S. heating oil (-2 million barrels) and purchases of European gasoil (+4 million barrels). Portfolio managers are likely to be liquidating some of their bullish crude positions after the market appeared to become overextended and amid concern about the deteriorating economic outlook. The concentration of long positions had become a major source of downside price risk, if and when managers attempted to realise some of their profits after the rally since the start of the year. Fund managers have now reduced their ratio of long to short positions in crude to 7:1, down from a recent peak of more than 10:1 on April 23 (and to 4:1 from 8:1 in the case of WTI). In fuels, however, the relatively low level of inventories has encouraged funds to remain very bullish, at least in the case of U.S. gasoline and European gasoil.
Oil edges higher as OPEC signals it will cap output, Iran tension rises Oil edged higher on Monday after hitting multi-week highs overnight, as OPEC indicated over the weekend that it was likely to maintain production cuts that have helped boost crude prices this year. Escalating Middle East tensions provided further support. Brent crude oil was up 15 cents at $72.36 a barrel around 12:10 p.m. ET (1610 GMT). The international benchmark for oil prices earlier touched $73.40, the highest since April 26. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 24 cents at $63 a barrel. WTI reached $63.81 earlier, the highest since May 1. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday there was consensus among OPEC and allied oil producers to drive down crude inventories “gently” but he would remain responsive to the needs of a “fragile market.” United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei earlier told reporters that producers were capable of filling any market gap and that relaxing supply cuts was not the right decision. OPEC data indicates oil inventories in the developed world rose by 3.3 million barrels month-on-month in March, and were 22.8 million barrels above their five year average. A gathering of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee in Saudi Arabia over the weekend did not make any solid recommendations in a closely watched statement, leaving a decision on policy for a meeting of OPEC and its allies next month in Vienna. “While not explicitly mentioned in the statement, uncertainty on how many Iranian and Venezuelan oil barrels will be lost due to U.S. sanctions was probably the main reason the group kicked the can down the road,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. OPEC, Russia and other non-OPEC producers, an alliance known as OPEC+, agreed to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day from Jan. 1 for six months to try to prevent inventories from increasing and weakening prices.
Oil Prices Rise As Trump Warns Of The ‘end Of Iran’ – RTTNews Oil prices rose on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to destroy Iran in a tweet on Sunday. Benchmark Brent crude rose about 0.4 percent to $72.53 while WTI crude futures were up 0.3 percent at $63.12 per barrel. “If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran. Never threaten the United States again!,” Trump tweeted Sunday afternoon after reports emerged that a rocket was fired into Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone less than a mile away from the U.S. Embassy. Meanwhile, a Saudi Arabian diplomat said his country doesn’t want to go to war with Iran but would defend itself after two Saudi oil tankers were targeted by acts of sabotage off the coast of the United Arab Emirates last week. Crude oil futures pared early gains and settled modestly lower on Friday, but still closed the week with solid gains, amid prospects of supply disruptions due to escalation in tensions in the Middle East.
Oil up on escalating US-Iran tensions, but trade war worries cap gains – Oil prices rose on Tuesday on escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and amid expectations that producer club OPEC will continue to withhold supply this year. But gains were checked by concerns that a prolonged trade war between Washington and Beijing could lead to a global economic slowdown. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $72.18 per barrel at 0651 GMT, up 21 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 31 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $63.41 per barrel. “Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, in addition to signs that OPEC will continue its production cut, drove oil higher,” said Jasper Lawler, head of research at futures brokerage London Capital Group. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday threatened Iran with “great force” if it attacked U.S. interests in the Middle East. This came after a rocket attack in Iraq’s capital Baghdad, which Washington suspects to have been organised by militia with ties to Iran. Iran said on Tuesday that it would resist U.S. pressure, declining further talks under current circumstances. The tension comes amid an already tight market as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and other producers have been withholding supply since the start of the year to prop up prices. A meeting has been scheduled for June 25-26 to discuss the policy, but the group is now considering moving the event to July 3-4, according to OPEC sources on Monday, with its de-facto leader Saudi Arabia signalling a willingness to continue withholding output. Price gains were constrained by pressure on financial markets, which have this week been weighed down by worries that the United States and China are digging in for a long, costly trade war that could result in a broad global slowdown.
Oil Markets In Limbo After OPEC+ Meeting – Oil was flat at the start of trading on Tuesday, still caught between U.S.-Iran tensions on the one hand, and the downside risk of the U.S.-China trade war. OPEC+ reportedly discussed two options for increasing production in the second half of the year. According to Reuters, the group weighed a plan that would end over-compliance with the cuts, which could add 0.8 mb/d of supply back onto the market. Or, the group could agree to trim the cuts from 1.2 to 0.9 mb/d. However, the group will wait until the June meeting in Vienna to make a decision, and many members are inclined to extend the cuts. ExxonMobil evacuated staff from southern Iraq, following the U.S. decision to withdraw embassy personnel from Baghdad. The West Qurna 1 project has not seen production affected. Iraqi officials said the withdrawal of oil workers was unwarranted. President Trump said that any trade deal with China must skew in favor of the U.S. because of past trade actions by China. The message seems to lower odds of a breakthrough in the weeks ahead. Meanwhile, the Trump administration lifted steel tariffs on Mexico and Canada. U.S. capital spending rose 3 percent in the first quarter year-on-year, down from a 20 percent jump in spending in the first quarter of 2018. The data raised the prospect that the U.S. economy could slow in the second half of this year.. Bankruptcies in the U.S. energy sector are “trailing only those in the discretionary consumer goods sector,” Bloomberg News reported. Oilfield services giant Weatherford International PLC, recently delisted from the New York Stock Exchange, may need to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The company lost $2.8 billion last year. Other signs of stress are emerging in the shale patch with Halcon Resources also a financial wreck. The SEC is investigating Alta Mesa for potential fraud in financial reporting. “A lot of people see the $60 or $70 and assume everything is great,” said Spencer Cutter, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “I think 2019 is going to be a bigger year for bankruptcies than 2018.”
WTI Slides Below $63 After Surprise Crude & Gasoline Builds -WTI traded lower today (finding support around $63) as anxiety over the ongoing US-China trade deal weighed on global growth (demand) sentiment (after yesterday’s gains on OPEC/Saudi supply comments). “Given the fact that the macro environment isn’t looking spectacular, oil is doing relatively well,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at Toronto’s TD Securities. “It’s very much marching to its own drumbeat here, with the supply side being supportive in the face of less risk appetite.”Product draws have been shrinking and crude builds increasing recently, dragging investors’ eyes back to the ‘gluttiness’ of energy markets… API:
- Crude +2.4mm (-1.3mm exp)
- Cushing +871k
- Gasoline +350k (-662k exp)
- Distillates -237k (-158k exp)
API reported a surprise inventory build in crude and gasoline… WTI traded back down to Sunday night futures opening levels today, hovering around $63 ahead of the API print and kneejerking lower after the data hit…
Oil sinks 2.7% as US crude stockpiles surge, demand worries flare – Oil futures sank on Wednesday as an unexpected build in U.S. crude stockpiles compounded investor worries that a prolonged trade war between Washington and Beijing could dent crude demand. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled $1.71 lower at $61.39, tumbling 2.7 percent to the lowest closing level in more than a week. Brent crude futures fell $1.19, or 1.7%, at $70.99 at barrel. U.S. crude inventories swelled by 4.7 million barrels in the latest week to their highest since July 2017, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a decrease of 599,000 barrels as refineries cut output. “It’s at the extreme end of the range of possibilities for a bearish report,” said Bob Yawger, director of futures at Mizuho in New York. “It’s about as bad as it could have been considering the fact that driving season is so close.” Gasoline stocks posted a surprise build as well, rising by 3.7 million barrels compared with analysts’ expectations for an 816,000-barrel drop. The prospect of a long-term tariff fight between China and the United States also pressured prices. No further talks between top officials have been scheduled since the last round ended in a stalemate on May 10. The conflict is weighing on economic growth forecasts and oil demand predictions. The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) on Tuesday revised down its global growth forecast for the year.
EIA Weekly Petroleum Report — May 22, 2019 —WTI: down 1.5%; down almost a buck; now trading at $62.22/bbl. Gee, I wonder why?
- API data posted yesterday: a “surprise build.”
- EIA weekly petroleum inventory data: link here.
The EIA numbers for week ending May 17, 2019:
- US crude oil inventory: increased by 4.7 million bbls
- US crude oil inventory: stands at 476.8 million bbls, about 4% above the 5-year average (last week, total inventories were said to be about 2% above the 5-year average)
- refinery operating capacity: operating at 89.9% — very low — and it’s down slightly from last week
- both gasoline and distillate fuel production decreased last week
- US crude oil imports have dropped considerably, now down close to 10% compared to same four-year period last year
- gasoline imports average 1.4 million bpd; it would be interesting to see how much of this was “California”
- gasoline inventories increased by 3.7 million bbls (significantly exceeded forecast; see above)
- distillate fuel inventories increased by about 1 million bbls (in line)
- but look at this: propane/propylene inventories are about 22% above the 5-year average; increased by 3 million bbls last week
- jet fuel supplied was up again; up 2.5% compared to same four-week period last year
Secretary of State Pompeo says he’s confident the oil market is well supplied despite Iran tensions – Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told CNBC on Thursday that the Trump administration has taken measures to prevent oil prices from spiking while it attempts to drive Iran’s crude exports to zero. The administration has tried to assure Americans that U.S. allies in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and elsewhere will fill the gap left by falling Iranian supply. “We are confident that we’ve done the hard work to make sure that the market is well supplied, and I hope that we can continue to maintain that, and I think that we can,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday. Supplies from Iran, one of the world’s top oil producers, are expected to fall by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day in the coming weeks after Washington tightened sanctions on the Islamic Republic this month. While Saudi Arabia has signaled that it will pump more oil, it has also indicated that OPEC and its oil market allies are not ready to lift price-boosting output caps. Led by Saudi Arabia, the producers have been trying to keep 1.2 million barrels per day off the market since January. They appear poised to continue limiting supply in the second half of 2019. The U.S. expedited the deployment of military assets to the Persian Gulf and withdrew diplomatic staff from Iraq, claiming threats by Iran against U.S. positions in the region. Meanwhile, Iran has ramped up production of nuclear materials, four vessels were sabotaged off the coast of UAE and Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen attacked oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Pompeo said the administration is not overhyping the threat from Iran, following reports that some members of the administration believe recent U.S. maneuvering in the region represents an overreaction to intelligence. “We briefed Congress extensively on Tuesday,” Pompeo said. “I think almost every member, Democrats and Republicans alike, walked out of that room understanding that the threats that we were discussing and the decision that President Trump made to take a posture to deter those threats and protect our forces were wholly justified and reasonable.” Despite the tension, Pompeo argued that the U.S. policy against Iran is not impacting oil prices much. He noted that Brent crude oil prices now at $69 a barrel are lower than a year ago, when the U.S. pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and began restoring sanctions on the Iranian economy.
Oil plunges 5.7% to $57.91 as US-China trade war raises fuel demand worries – Oil prices tumbled nearly 6% on Thursday, extending steep losses in the previous sessions, as the market braced for a prolonged U.S.-China trade war and digested disappointing manufacturing data. Some analysts also pointed to signs that Middle East tensions are moderating. Brent crude futures sank $3.35, or 4.7%, to $67.64 per barrel around 2:20 p.m. ET (1820 GMT). The international benchmark for oil prices hit a nearly two-month low earlier in the session and is on pace for its worst week since December. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled $3.51 lower at $57.91 per barrel, tumbling 5.7% to the lowest closing price since March 12. WTI is on track to end the week 7.7% lower and post the worst weekly performance in five months. “The $60 level is a critical support point,” said John Kilduff, founding partner at energy hedge fund Again Capital. “After $60, really it’s right down around $58 or so. Theoretically, if this thing really becomes a washout, $52 is the downside objective,” he said, cautioning that the move would not happen overnight. Crude futures fell with the stock market as the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute entered a new phase. A wave of companies is suspending business with Huawei after the U.S. blacklisted the Chinese telecom giant. Washington and Beijing are set to increase tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of one another’s goods, raising concerns about a global economic slowdown and weaker demand for oil. U.S. manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace since September 2009 this month, according to IHS Markit. Meanwhile, data released overnight showed Japanese manufacturing activity fell into contraction in May. Manufacturing activity for the European Union and Germany also came in below expectations.
Oil’s Worst Day Of 2019- The Silence Before The Storm In Energy Markets – WTI just hit a $57 handle for the first time in over two months, with the biggest drop of the year, as extreme positioning is accelerating anxiety over both the demand and supply side of the energy markets. But, with oil production plunging in Venezuela and Iran, tension in the Middle East at its highest point in years, and the threat of further outages in Libya, why are oil prices not trading higher? OilPrice.com’s Nick Cunningham explains:Even price volatility has been rather low, a surprising feature of a tight market rife with geopolitical risk. Brent crude has been stuck between a relatively narrow range of $70 to $75 per barrel for more than a month, despite all the turmoil.Furthermore, even the back end of the futures curve has barely budged, trading between $60 and $65 per barrel. At the same time, the front end of the curve has moved into steep backwardation – when near-term contracts trade at a premium to longer-dated futures. Backwardation is typically associated with a tight oil market – essentially, traders are willing to pay a premium for oil today relative to deliveries six or twelve months out.What does all of this mean? “The recent movements in the oil price complex indicate some deep dislocations between the physical and futures markets and in market expectations about current and future oil market fundamentals,” the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) wrote in a new report. The big question is how and when Saudi Arabia will respond. Riyadh is very reluctant to see a repeat of 2018 when prices crashed following production increases. This time around Saudi Arabia will err on the side of letting the overly tighten, although the OPEC+ group has adopted a “wait-and-see” approach, putting off a decision until the June meeting (which may even get pushed into July). That way, OPEC+ officials will have more data on how U.S. sanctions are affecting production in Iran and Venezuela, and events surrounding the U.S.-China trade war will also become clearer.
US oil rises 1.2% to $58.63 per barrel, but posts worst week of 2019 — Oil prices rose Friday ahead of long U.S. and UK holiday weekends, but posted their biggest weekly drop of the year, pressured by rising inventories and concern over an economic slowdown. Brent crude rose 93 cents, or 1.4% to $67.69 a barrel but the global benchmark still posted a weekly loss of more than 4.5%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $58.63, yet it recorded a one-week loss of more than 6%, its biggest of 2019. U.S. crude inventories have risen to their highest since July 2017, suggesting ample supplies in the world’s top consumer, with prices also hit by worries that the U.S.-China trade conflict is developing into a more entrenched dispute. U.S. inventories also rose due to more sluggish refinery rates than normal for this time of year. In particular, refining usage in the Midwest region plunged to its lowest levels in May since 2013. Stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. crude futures were at the highest since December 2017, government data showed this week. 8 “U.S. businesses affected by the increased tariffs will be making decisions regarding purchases, inventories, etc., that are apt to force some downshifts in the U.S. economic growth path that could have implications for U.S. oil demand,” “A decline below our expected next support level of $56 (for WTI) will likely associate with a further plunge in equities that would be heavily related to unresolved trade issues between the U.S. and China … volatility across all markets will be heightened until some significant trade progress is seen.” Concerns over the health of the world economy linked to trade tensions have hit global markets this week, with the MSCI All Country index in line for a more than 1% fall in its third week in the red.
Saudi-UAE coalition carries out deadly air raids on Yemen’s Sanaa – At least six civilians, including women and children, were killed and dozens wounded in Saudi-UAE-led coalition air raids on residential areas and Houthi rebel military targets in Yemen‘s capital, Sanaa. The coalition carried out 11 attacks on the capital in all, out of a total of 19 across rebel-held territory on Thursday, the Houthi-run Masirah TV channel reported. It blamed “aircraft of the [Saudi-led] aggression”. The air strikes came after the Iran-aligned rebels claimed drone attacks that temporarily shut a key oil pipeline in neighbouring Saudi Arabia.Rubble filled a populated street lined by mud-brick houses, a Reuters journalist on the scene said. A crowd of men lifted the body of a women, wrapped in a white shroud, into an ambulance. Saudi-owned broadcaster Al Arabiya quoted a coalition statement as saying it launched an operation aimed at “neutralising the ability of the Houthi militia to carry out acts of aggression”.”The sorties achieved its goals with full precision,” it said, adding civilians had been warned to avoid those targets. Masirah quoted the Houthi health ministry as saying six civilians, including four children, had been killed and 52 wounded, including two Russian women working in the health sector.
Saudis Claim Intercept Of Iran-backed Houthi Missiles Headed For Mecca – Saudi Arabia has claimed that its air defenses shot down two ballistic missiles over the city of Taif, just 65 kilometers east of Mecca, in the early hours of Monday morning. Saudi officials claim that another missile was intercepted over the Haddah in western Saudi Arabia. The Saudi newspaper Okaz reported the missiles were intercepted as residents were breaking their day-long Ramadan fast. The paper claimed that the attempted attack was evidence that Yemen’s Houthis had no regard for the safety and security of Muslim pilgrims visiting Mecca during the nights of Ramadan. The Houthis have unequivocally denied any involvement in the attacks. Mohammed AbdulSalam, a spokesman for the Houthi political wing Ansar Allah, said in a statement, “We avoid targeting civilians as well as holy places, and this [accusation] is Saudi bankruptcy,” adding “Saudi Arabia fabricated the Houthi threat [to Meccia] in order to mobilize official and popular support.”The Yemeni army, which is allied with the Houthis, said in a statement in the wake of Saudi accusation: “This isn’t the first time the Saudi regime has accused us of targeting Mecca. The objective of these accusations is to gain support and approval for their monstrous aggression.” An army spokesperson noted that the Houthis have never denied previous military maneuvers, saying “We do not hesitate to announce our military operations.”The Houthis did claim responsibility for last week’s attack on two Saudi oil pumping stations in the provinces of Dawadmi and Afif near the Saudi capital, Riyadh. High-ranking officials in the Yemeni army, as well as the Houthi Political Council, told MintPress that the pumping station attack was not part of a regional effort to stir up tension between Iran and the United States, and was planned before those tensions came about.
Houthi drone attack ‘hits arms depot’ at Saudi airport in Najran – Yemen’s Houthi rebels said they launched a bomb-laden drone into Saudi Arabia targeting an airport with a military base – an attack acknowledged by the kingdom. It was not clear if there were any injuries or what the extent of damage was. The Houthis’ Almasirah satellite news channel said early on Tuesday the attack hit the airport in Najran with a Qasef-2K drone, striking an “arms depot”. Najran, 840km southwest of Riyadh, lies on the Saudi-Yemen border and has repeatedly been targeted by the Houthis. A statement earlier on the state-run Saudi Press Agency quoted Saudi-led coalition spokesman Colonel Turki al-Maliki as saying the Houthis “had tried to target” a civilian site in Najran, without elaborating. Al-Maliki warned there would be a “strong deterrent” to such attacks and described the Houthis as the “terrorist militias of Iran”. Houthi drone attacks in Saudi ‘show new level of sophistication’Similar Houthi attacks in the past have prompted rounds of Saudi-led air raids on Yemen, which have been widely criticised internationally for killing civilians. Civilian airports throughout the Middle East often host military bases.
Saudi Arabia, Gulf states agree to deploy US forces to deter Iran: report – Saudi Arabia and a number of Gulf states have agreed to let the United States deploy its forces at sea and on land to deter Iran from a possible attack, Saudi daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat reported on Saturday. An unnamed Saudi official told Al-Awsat that the “agreement was aimed at deterring Iran from a military escalation, including attacking American targets… and not with the aim of entering into a war with it.” While both Washington and Tehran have said recently that neither is interested in a war, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) said on Saturday that his country is in a intelligence war with the US and “enemies of the Islamic Republic”. “We are in a full intelligence war with the United States and the enemies of the Islamic Republic. This war is a combination of psychological warfare, cyber operations, military operations, diplomacy, fear, and intimidation,” Major General Hossein Salami said. Unlike Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif, the IRGC has warned that the Islamic Republic is on the verge of a “full-scale confrontation with the enemy.” “This moment in history, because the enemy has stepped into the field of confrontation with us with all the possible capacity, is the most decisive moment of the Islamic revolution,” Salami said on Thursday according to Fars News Agency.
FM Javad Zarif: We don’t want war, and no one can confront Iran -Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif says he does not believe a war will break out in the region as Tehran does not want a conflict and no country has the “illusion it could confront Iran”, state news agency IRNA reports. Concerns about a possible conflict have flared since the White House ordered warships and bombers to the Middle East to counter an alleged, unexplained threat from Iran. Earlier this week the US also pulled some diplomatic staff from its embassy in Baghdad following weekend attacks on four oil tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).”There will be no war because neither we want a war, nor has anyone the idea or illusion that it can confront Iran in the region,” Zarif told IRNA before ending his visit to Beijing. Meanwhile, Saudi media reported that the kingdom and a number of Gulf states have agreed to a request by the US to redeploy its military forces in Gulf waters and territories. The motive for redeployment, according to the Saudi reports, was to deter Iran from any attempt to escalate the situation militarily, not to engage in a war with it. This all takes root in US President Donald Trump’s decision last year to withdraw the US from the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and world powers and impose wide-reaching sanctions. The move came even as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has verified that Tehran has upheld its obligations under the deal. Last week, Time magazine quoted Pentagon officials as saying there was no military plan to confront Iran.On the Iranian side, the Guardian newspaper reported in an exclusive report on Thursday that Tehran had ordered its militias in the Middle East to prepare for a proxy war.The deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Saleh Jokar, said on Friday that his country’s missiles could easily reach US warships anchored in the Gulf and the rest of the region in case of war. On the other hand, a senior Iranian legislator, Hashmatullah Falahat Pishe, called for an Iranian-American dialogue in Iraq or Qatar, to de-escalate tensions with Washington.
Top Iran Commander Invokes 9/11 To Say US Is “Frail”; A “Full Intelligence War” Is On – lran is currently in “a full intelligence war” with the United States, according to statements by the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Major General Hossein Salami on Saturday. “We are in a full intelligence war with the United States and the enemies of the Islamic Republic. This war is a combination of psychological warfare, cyber operations, military operations, diplomacy, fear, and intimidation,” Salami, who became head of Iran’s elite military force last moth, was quoted as saying by Fars news agency. He further noted Americans in the region face “great risks” at this point. “America has lost its power, and even though they look powerful, they are frail,” he said. But what’s most likely to capture the West’s attention is his invoking the 9/11 terror attacks: “In reality America’s story is the same as the story of the World Trade Center that collapsed suddenly with one strike,” he said, using the example both as a threat and to claim the mighty US empire can be brought to its knees with one strategic blow. His combative statements came days after he said provocatively that the IRGC stood on the “cusp of a full-scale confrontation with the enemy.” In that prior address , Salami notified his forces, “This moment in history, because the enemy has stepped into the field of confrontation with us with all the possible capacity, is the most decisive moment of the Islamic revolution,” according to Fars. Washington has already deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and new Patriot missiles, along with a B-52 bomber group to the Persian Gulf region, but Saudi Arabia and other gulf states this weekend have reportedly agreed to host American forces “at sea and on land to deter Iran” according to a new report in Israeli media, citing Arabic sources: Saudi Arabia and a number of Gulf states have agreed to let the United States deploy its forces at sea and on land to deter Iran from a possible attack, Saudi daily Al-Sharq Al-Awsat reported on Saturday.
Persian Gulf tensions rise as Trump threatens “end” of Iran – A tweet by President Donald Trump threatening to put an “end” to Iran sharply escalated the war crisis in the Persian Gulf, even as US warships launched a series of provocative military exercises in close proximity to Iranian shores. “If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran,” Trump tweeted. “Never threaten the United States again!” It is by no means clear what “threat” Trump had in mind. The tweet came just hours after a Katyusha rocket fell in Baghdad’s Green Zone near the statue of the Unknown Soldier, approximately a third of a mile north of the US Embassy, causing no injuries. While National Security Adviser John Bolton, who has long called for the bombing of Iran and regime change, went to the White House to brief the president on the incident, there were indications that Trump was responding not to this event but rather to commentary on Fox News, having tweeted just before in apparent response to a segment on immigration and then tweeting his threat to put and “end” to Iran following a Fox News segment on Iran. The errant rocket fired into the Green Zone, one of the most heavily fortified enclaves on the planet, was immediately attributed by the US media to Iran or its “proxies,” even though no one has claimed responsibility for the incident and there are a multitude of factions and people in the country who have every reason to want to lob a missile at the US embassy, or for that matter, at the seat of Iraq’s corrupt bourgeois government. Earlier “threats” from Iran have emanated from the leadership of the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which has warned Washington that it is not intimidated by the massive military deployment in the Persian Gulf, and that US warships constitute as much of a target as they do a threat. Washington earlier this month fast-tracked the deployment of a carrier battle group, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln, to the region, and sent in a bomber task force, including nuclear-capable B-52s, to conduct over-flights off the Iranian coast. This has been followed by the dispatch to the region of amphibious assault warships carrying US Marines, warplanes and landing craft, as well a Patriot missile battery. The Pentagon, meanwhile, has drawn up war plans calling for the shipping of as many as 120,000 US troops to the region – a similar number to the force deployed to the region prior to the invasion of Iraq – in apparent preparation for an all-out war with Iran.
Trump’s ‘genocidal taunts’ will not end Iran – Zarif — Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has dismissed US President Donald Trump’s “genocidal taunts” and warned him not to threaten the country. Amid rising tensions, Mr Trump tweeted on Sunday: “If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran.” Mr Zarif said the US president should look to history. “Iranians have stood tall for millennia while aggressors all gone… Try respect – it works!” The US has deployed additional warships and planes to the Gulf in recent days. But Mr Trump’s tweet marked a shift in tone after recent attempts by him to downplay the possibility of a military conflict with Iran. When asked by reporters on Thursday if the US was going to war, he said: “I hope not.” Iranian state media reported on Monday that the country had increased by fourfold its production of low-enriched uranium, which was limited to a 300kg stockpile by the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. “If they want us to maintain this limit, it would be better for European countries to take the measures they want to implement as soon as possible.” Mr Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the nuclear deal last year, but the European parties say they remain committed to it.
Iran’s Zarif: US playing ‘dangerous game’ in Gulf showdown – Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif warned the United States is “playing a dangerous game” by boosting its military might in the Gulf as the fiery rhetoric between Washington and Tehran continues.Zarif criticised the US move to deploy an aircraft carrier strike group and bomber task force earlier this month in response to an unspecified threat, cautioning that “having all these military assets in a small area is in of itself prone to accidents”.”Extreme prudence is required and the United States is playing a very, very dangerous game,” he told CNN in an interview broadcast on Tuesday.Friction between Tehran and Washington has steadily ratcheted up this month, a year after US President Donald Trump pulled out of a landmark 2015 nuclear accord brokered between the Islamic Republic and several other world powers. Under the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran agreed to curb its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. Since then, the Trump administration has pursued a “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran, which it accuses of being a destabilising actor in the Middle East. On Tuesday, Zarif said Tehran had “acted in good faith” over the JCPOA and accused the US of waging “economic warfare” on Iran by reimposing sanctions and moving to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero.”Iran never negotiates with coercion. You cannot threaten any Iranian and expect them to engage. The way to do it is through respect, not through threats,” Zarif said, adding there would b e “painful consequences” if current tensions escalate further.
Iran ramps up uranium production, throwing ‘a brick on the accelerator’ to nuclear threshold – Iran is ramping up its uranium output, a provocative step that threatens to further inflame simmering tensions with the United States and deepen regional conflict following a series of dangerous escalations in the Middle East.Iranian production of low-enriched uranium has recently increased fourfold, putting the nation on a path to exceed limits on nuclear materials set out in a 2015 agreement with world powers, a spokesperson for Iran’s atomic energy agency told Iranian news outlets on Monday.The supplies in question are not enriched to a level suitable for weapons development. Still, the increased output threatens to further erode the Iran nuclear deal and destabilize a region that provides much of the world’s energy supply.The comparison here is they were already going 55 miles per hour and heading towards a busted bridge. And so what the [Atomic Energy Organization of Iran] is saying is that they threw a brick on the accelerator. The stockpiling also raises concerns about the proliferation of nuclear materials, President Donald Trump announced he would pull the U.S. out of the nuclear accord and restore wide-ranging economic sanctions against Iran just over a year ago. The other parties to the deal – China, Russia and the European Union – condemned the U.S. withdrawal and have attempted to preserve the agreement, which put limits on Iran’s nuclear activity in exchange for sanctions relief. Iran continued to abide by the terms of the deal until Washington sharply escalated tensions last month. In April, the Trump administration designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization and announced it would tighten sanctions in a bid to drive Iran’s oil exports to zero. Shortly after the new U.S. sanctions policy took effect this month, Iran said it would stop complying with key parts of the nuclear deal.
Iran Says Uranium Enrichment Quadrupled, On Pace For Weapons-Grade Levels – It appears Iran is following through on its prior warnings issued to European leaders that it’s ready to surpass enriched uranium production limits previously agreed to under the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA). News that Iran has “quadrupled its production of low-enriched uranium” comes as rhetoric between Tehran and Washington has reached new belligerent heights, with President Trump tweeting Sunday that US attack would be the “end” of Iran. Crucially, on Monday both the semi-official Fars and Tasnim news agencies cited Iran’s nuclear agency spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi to say the country would reach the 300-kilogram limit set by the nuclear deal merely “in weeks” – in what appears counter-threat signalling to Washington. Iran has also for months complained the EU is failing to hold up to its end of the bargain under the JCPOA to provide sanctions relief. The AP notes of the Iranian media statements that “While the reports said the production is of uranium enriched only to the 3.67% limit set by the 2015 nuclear deal that Tehran reached with world powers, it means that Iran soon will go beyond the stockpile limitations established by the accord” if it continues on this pace. Kamalvandi’s statement made clear this didn’t mean Iran increased the number centrifuges in use – a key requirement of the deal – however, The Wall Street Journal cited European diplomats two weeks ago who said they were informed by the Iranians of thier intent to ramp up research efforts into centrifuges that could produce highly enriched uranium faster. Amid renewed US pressures and military build-up in the Persian Gulf of late, Tehran has little confidence that the EU is capable of facing US sanctions, and despite some meager past efforts, such as the attempt to establish a ‘SWIFT alternative,’ EU initiatives to salvage the deal have been too little too late. Assuming war is not triggered by then, the Iranians have issued Europe an ultimatum to come up with new terms by July 7th or else weapons-grade levels of uranium will be enriched, per the AP:
Iran won’t be alone if war breaks out with US – Hezbollah – Should a war with the United States break out Iran “will not be alone”, a militant group has warned. That message was delivered by the leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah to a mass rally in Beirut in February marking the 40th anniversary of Iran’s Islamic Revolution. “If America launches war on Iran, it will not be alone in the confrontation, because the fate of our region is tied to the Islamic Republic,” Hassan Nasrallah said. Yesterday President Donald Trump said he hoped the US is not on a path to war amid fears that his two most hawkish advisers could be angling for conflict. Asked if the United States was going to war with Iran, the president replied, “I hope not” – a day after he repeated a desire for dialogue, tweeting: “I’m sure that Iran will want to talk soon.” The tone contrasted with a series of moves by the US and Iran that have sharply escalated tensions in the Middle East in recent days. For the past year, National Security Adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have been the public face of the administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran.
US Might Send 10,000 More Troops to the Middle East Amid Rising Tensions With Iran – – Citing ongoing US-Iran tensions and the secret intelligence on Iranian “threats” officials keep mentioning, CENTCOM is requesting that the Pentagon approve substantial numbers of additional US ground troops to be deployed somewhere in the Middle East.Though initial reports claimed that CENTCOM was only requesting “about 5,000″ ground troops, subsequent reports said that the Pentagon are preparing a plan to present to President Trump seeking 10,000 troops. It’s not clear where these troops could be stationed, though officials emphasized they would be purely defensive. It is unlikely Iraq would welcome a large influx of US troops, however, especially when it is presented as being directed against neighboring Iran. CENTCOM is also being very vague about what the troops are really need for, saying that they don’t generally get into public disclosure of that sort of thing. That’s putting it mildly, given how little they, and the rest of the US military, are willing to even talk to the press anymore.
On The Cusp Of War: Why Iran Won’t Fold — Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, on May 14, 2019 – a week after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had visited Baghdad and reportedly met with a senior Iranian official – determined the course of his country’s current crisis involving the US and issued directives to the pertinent authorities. Khamenei convened a closed meeting with “the heads of power branches”, key senior officers and officials, jurists and Majlis members. He discussed and analyzed the current situation, and then outlined Tehran’s next moves. Iran would do its utmost to avoid war with the US while relentlessly pursuing its ascent as a prominent regional power. Throughout, he said, there would be no further negotiations with the US. “Iran’s refusal to negotiate with the US,” Khamenei explained, stemmed from the realization that “negotiating with current US Government is toxic”. It was through negotiations that “the US seeks to take Iran’s strengths away”; meaning to have Iran unilaterally “surrender its defensive power” and “its strategic regional influence”. Khamenei described a US offer to discuss the range of Iran’s ballistic missiles. “Reduce the range so you would not be able to hit our bases,” the US demanded, according to Khamenei. He emphasized that “talks on Iran’s strengths, including the missile power and regional influence [are] foolish”. Khamenei was confident that “there was not going to be any war” between the US and Iran, and thus the confrontation would not be “a military one”. Khamenei stressed that “there will not be a military confrontation as neither Iran nor the US seeks war because the Americans know that the war will not be beneficial for them”. Under these circumstances, Iran would continue its surge relying on proxies – “the resistance” – as the main instrument for confronting all foes. “The resistance is Iran’s only absolute choice,” he emphasized. “The Iranian nation’s definite option will be resistance in the face of the US, and in this confrontation, the US would be forced into a retreat,” Khamenei explained. “Neither we nor they, who know war will not be in their interest, are after war.” The Iranian nation was, he said, mobilized behind Tehran. Khamenei observed that “as a result of the US threats, hatred towards the US among the Iranians has increased by more than 10 times”. Khamenei concluded by stating that “the Iranian military forces are more prepared and vigilant than ever.” He repeated that in pursuing its “policy of confrontation with the Islamic Republic too, the US will definitely suffer defeat, and [the outcome] will end up to our benefit.”
Ex-NATO commander- US in ‘dangerous place’ with Iran — Former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO James Stavridis said in an interview that aired Sunday that the U.S. is in a “dangerous place” with Iran, as tensions escalate. “We’re in a kind of dangerous place right now, because of escalation on both sides. It starts with Iran, of course,” he told radio host John Catsimatidis on AM 970 in New York, criticizing what he believes to be Iran’s “bad behavior throughout the region.” “Their escalation has now been matched by the United States,” Stavridis added. “Let’s be hopeful that the Iranians will see this show of force, the way intends it, and will back down.” He said he believes Tehran will back down because “Iran cannot afford to go to war with us.” The White House has put forth mixed messaging on Iran in recent days. President Trump has denied a report that his administration was working on a plan to deploy 120,000 troops to the Middle East, but said he would send more than that if it were necessary. He said several times that he does not want war with Iran. The Washington Post reported Thursday that Trump was frustrated with advisers such as national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, because of their their hardline stances with Iran and wanted to speak to the country’s leaders himself. An Iranian military official this week said that the U.S. was “holding a gun” at Tehran while calling for talks. Stavridis served as NATO’s supreme allied commander from 2009 to 2013.
US Warns Assad Of Quick Response After New Chemical Attack Allegation -Here we go again with a claim that seems to surface every Spring: the US says it is looking into allegations the Syrian government has used chemical weapons as it continues an offensive against jihadists in northwest Syria.Just as in prior incidents, it appears the sole originator of the claim is al-Qaeda in Syria, currently battling it out with pro-Assad forces near Idlib. And like with prior chemical attack allegations, it comes at a moment the jihadists are fast losing ground in the area. According to Reuters, citing US State Department remarks: US State Department says it sees signs Syrian government may be renewing use of chemical weapons, including alleged chlorine attack on May 19. The State Department spokesman said in a written statement the US is closely monitoring Assad military operations in northwest Syria after an alleged chlorine attack on Sunday. “We are still gathering information on this incident, but we repeat our warning that if the Assad regime uses chemical weapons, the United States and our allies will respond quickly and appropriately,” the statement reads. The May 19 claimed incident has received little to no media coverage since it allegedly happened Sunday, with nothing in the way of any kind of photographs or footage yet to surface, unlike prior highly publicized chemical attack claims. It allegedly occurred near Idlib or possibly in northeast Latakia province, a government stronghold southwest of Idlib, and it appears the initial claim was made by none other that Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham before being picked up by Syrian opposition media groups and among some western Middle East think tanks analysts. According to prior United States government statements Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) is synonymous with al-Qaeda in Syria (as it rebranded from Nusrah Front). Thus it once again it appears the United States is blindly parroting the claims al-Qaeda terrorists.
Washington revives Syria chemical weapons propaganda as pretext for war -Washington is once again threatening a military attack against Syria over the alleged use of chemical weapons by the government of President Bashar al-Assad. If executed, this attack would be the third in as many years by the Trump administration, which rained missiles down upon the war-ravaged country in April 2017 and April 2018 using unsubstantiated allegations of chemical weapons use as a pretext. The latest threat was issued in the form of a statement from recently appointed State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus – like her predecessor recruited from the stable of right-wing Fox News commentators. “We repeat our warning that if the Assad regime uses chemical weapons, the United States and our allies will respond quickly and appropriately,” the statement said. The latest incident is alleged to have taken place in the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib in territory that is dominated by the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham militia, the latest incarnation of the Al Nusra Front, the Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda. Syrian troops and allied militias backed by Russian air power have been waging a battle against the Islamist forces in recent weeks. Washington’s concern is that if Damascus reasserts government control over the province it will signal an end to the nearly eight-year war for regime change backed by the US and both its NATO and regional allies, in particular Saudi Arabia and Israel, which has claimed the lives of hundreds of thousands and turned millions into refugees.
Syrian Rebels Attack Russian Air Base In Major Offensive – Some 500 Nusra-front militants, accompanied by seven tanks and about 30 pickup trucks armed with mounted heavy machine guns launched three major offensives against government troops in Idlib province on Wednesday, the Russian Defense Ministry said. The counterattack focused on the town of Kafr Nabudah, which was recently captured by the Syrian government. Militants also launched a missile attack on Russia’s Hmeymim air base on Wednesday, but nine of the missiles were shot down, and another 8 didn’t reach their target, the ministry added. Northwest Syria, which runs along Syria’s border with Turkey, is home to the last remaining rebel strongholds, including a swath of land dominated by the Al Qaeda-linekd Nusra Front, which has adopted a new name, Tahrir al-Sham, Haaretz reports. The increase in shelling in the region has led to the displacement of 180,000 people, while the increase in shelling marked the most intense period of fighting between Bashar al-Assad and the rebels. According to RT, more than 150 rebels were killed during the morning offensive. Three tanks were destroyed, while 24 trucks mounted with heavy guns were also destroyed in the fighting.
Video Shows Israeli Settlers Starting West Bank Fires, Contradicting Army Statement – – Israeli human rights organisation B’Tselem has released a video showing illegal Israeli settlers setting fire to fields in the occupied West Bank, contradicting the Israeli army’s claim that the blaze was started by Palestinians. The Spokesperson’s Unit of the Israeli army was yesterday forced to change its original statement, in which it claimed to have extinguished “a fire set by Palestinians”. The fires were started last Friday near the occupied West Bank villages of Burin, Urif and Asira Al-Qibliya, all located off Route 60 south of Nablus. Illegal Israeli settlers from the nearby settlement of Yitzhar had attacked Palestinians from these villages, with both groups subsequently blaming the other for causing the fires which followed. Contradicting the Israeli army’s claim of Palestinian culpability, video footage released by B’Tselem showed “two Israeli [settlers] – one of them armed with a Tavor assault rifle – entering grasslands, crouching down and walking away. Moments later, flames can be seen in the area where they’d been standing,” the Times of Israel reported. B’Tselem added that “[Israeli] soldiers who were standing next to [the settlers] did not arrest them and prevent[ed] the Palestinians from reaching their burning lands”. In a separate video, settlers can also be seen throwing rocks at nearby Palestinian homes while four Israeli soldiers stand idly by. B’Tselem stressed that the Israeli army had granted “almost total immunity” to the settlers involved in the attacks, noting that none were interrogated or arrested following the incident. Although the Israeli army today issued a new statement saying “several fires were set and quickly spread” and that, “in addition to the fires, some 20 settlers went down to the outskirts of Asirah Al-Qibliyah and began throwing rocks,” it did not admit its attempts to cover up the settlers’ attacks.
Head of Reporters Without Borders Says Israel Shot Journalists Intentionally — The director-general of Reporters Without Borders (RSF) said yesterday that the Israeli army had deliberately targeted journalists in the occupied Gaza Strip.Christophe Deloire was speaking to the Jerusalem Post, having received the Dan David Prize in Tel Aviv on behalf of the international press freedoms watchdog.“It is a war crime to target journalists because they are journalists,” Deloire told the paper. “When Israel shot those journalists [during the Great Return March protests], it was intentional.”“The journalists could be clearly identified as journalists, with cameras and jackets and it could not be just by chance,” he added. Referring to the United Nations’ Commission of Inquiry into the Gaza protests, Deloire pointed out that the report “confirmed what we already considered a fact”. According to the Jerusalem Post, last week RSF formally asked the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate suspected war crimes by the Israeli military against Palestinian journalists covering protests in Gaza since 30 March 2018.
Israel Launches Massive Recruitment Drive for Social Media Keyboard Warriors – – Israel has embarked on a massive recruitment drive to support the country’s online propaganda campaign one day after its companies were exposed for spreading disinformation and meddling in the elections of several African, Asian and Latin American countries.The new initiative, which would see the government funding pro-Israel groups overseas, was unveiled by Israel’s Ministry of Strategic Affairs, a government arm set up to combat the global rise of pro-Palestinian activism and Israel’s poor global image.Launching the initiative, Strategic Affairs Minister Gilad Erdan, who is also the public security minister, was quoted by the Times of Israel saying: “I’m proud to launch the first [government] program to support pro-Israel organizations and activists around the world.” The plan will “encourage grassroots events and online initiatives against the BDS [boycott] movement and in support of Israel. I’m certain that this program will give a significant boost to all our supporters around the world who are battling this anti-Semitism and the boycott activists,” added Erdan.Details of the tendering process for recruiting pro-Israeli activists was published in the Jewish Chronicle on 17 May a day after Israeli firms were kicked out by social media giant, Facebook, for spreading disinformation by posing as local journalists and influencers working in several African, Asian and Latin American countries.“The Ministry of Strategic Affairs and Public Diplomacy has announced the opening of submission process for application for grants in 2019 in relation to the topics listed below,” an ad in the Jewish Chronicle said. The two areas in which the Israeli government was seeking new recruits were in “support for pro-Israeli activities abroad” and “support for pro-Israeli activities on the internet aimed at target audiences abroad.”
Rocket attack near U.S. embassy in Baghdad – – A rocket was fired into the Iraqi capital’s heavily fortified Green Zone on Sunday night, landing less than a mile from the sprawling U.S. Embassy, an Iraqi military spokesman said. The apparent attack, which Iraq’s state-run news agency said did not cause any casualties, came amid heightened tensions across the Persian Gulf, after the White House ordered warships and bombers to the region earlier this month to counter an alleged, unexplained threat from Iran. The U.S. also has ordered nonessential staff out of its diplomatic posts in Iraq. It was the first such attack since September, when three mortar shells landed in an abandoned lot inside the Green Zone. There was no immediate comment from the State Department or the U.S. Embassy in Iraq on Sunday’s attack. No one claimed responsibility for the attack that took place after sunset when many Baghdad residents were indoors breaking their fast during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Iraqi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Rasoul told The Associated Press that a Katyusha rocket fell near the statue of the Unknown Soldier, less than a mile from the U.S. Embassy. He said the military is investigating the cause but that the rocket was believed to have been fired from east Baghdad. The area is home to Iran-backed Shiite militias. Shortly afterward the rocket launcher was discovered by security forces in the eastern neighborhood of Wihda, according to a security official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.
US Alerts Airliners To Misidentification Risk If They Fly Over Persian Gulf – The United States has issued a formal warning to commercial airliners operating over the broader Gulf region of the risk of being “misidentified” as heightened US-Iran tensions and American warships are positioned in the Persian Gulf. Embassies in the region reportedly relayed the message issued from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) highlighting the risk of travel in and over the region after a week that’s witnessed an alleged “sabotage” attack against four vessels near the vital Strait of Hormuz and threats and counter-threats hurled between Tehran and Washington. Lloyd’s of London has also issued an alert over the increased risk to maritime shipping in the Persian Gulf area. The FAA’s warning specifically said commercial airliners flying over the Persian Gulf could be targeted by “miscalculation or misidentification” even as the White House appeared to soften its tone late in the week. “Although Iran likely has no intention to target civil aircraft, the presence of multiple long-range, advanced anti-aircraft-capable weapons in a tense environment poses a possible risk of miscalculation or misidentification, especially during periods of heightened political tension and rhetoric,” the warning said.It also suggested the possibility than an aircraft’s navigation, communications, and electronic systems could be jammed “with little to no warning.” According to ABC News:
Exxon Evacuates All Foreign Staff From Iraqi Oilfield On Security Concerns – At the end of a week that’s witnessed a dangerous US military build-up in the Persian Gulf amid anti-Iran war rhetoric, Exxon Mobil has evacuated all of its foreign staff from Iraq’s West Qurna 1 oilfield, flying them to Dubai until “the situation is secure,” according to a company statement. Total staff evacuated is about 60, cites Reuters, and comes days after the US ordered all non-emergency personnel to leave the US embassy in Baghdad in an extremely rare security move, claiming intelligence that shows Americans are under immediate threat from Shia milias backed by Iran. Iraq’s state-owned South Oil Company, which owns the oil field from which the Exxon Mobil employees have been evacuated, announced Saturday that production is continuing without disruption at 440,000 barrels per day (bpd) under the operation of Iraqi engineers. “Exxon Mobil’s evacuation is a precautionary and temporary measure. We have no indication over any dangers, the situation is secure and very stable at the oilfield which is running at full capacity and producing 440,000 bpd,” a South Oil spokesman said. And Exxon Mobile in a separate company press release said, “ExxonMobil has programs and measures in place to provide security to protect its people, operations and facilities. We are committed to ensuring the safety of our employees and contractors at all of our facilities around the world.”
Iraq Dubs Exxon Staff Evacuation Unacceptable – The evacuation of some Exxon Mobil Corp. workers is “unacceptable and unwarranted” because it has nothing to do with the security situation in southern Iraq, according the country’s energy minister. “This withdrawal may send the wrong message about the situation in Iraq, and that’s something we reject,” Iraq’s Oil Minister Thamir Ghadhban said in a statement on Saturday. The minister sent a letter to Exxon officials seeking clarification about the decision and asking that the workers return to Iraq. Ghadhban said in an interview on Saturday that Exxon pulled about 80 people from Iraq. Oil and gas output continues unabated from all fields in the country. “No single personnel from other foreign companies withdrew,” he said. Exxon’s decision to pull staff is “precautionary and temporary,” said Abdul Jabbar Abbas Mohammed, who heads the operations committee of West Qurna-1 field which is a partnership with the U.S. company. The field is producing between 450,000 to 480,000 barrels a day and its daily functions are managed by Iraqi engineers, he said. Exxon didn’t provide specifics about its staffing in Iraq. “ExxonMobil has programs and measures in place to provide security to protect its people, operations and facilities,” the company said in an emailed statement. The U.S. ordered its non-emergency government staff to leave Iraq this week amid increasing Middle East tensions that American officials are blaming on Iran. Attacks on energy facilities, including a Saudi Arabian pipeline and several vessels including Saudi oil tankers, as well as a U.S. military buildup, are raising fears that the region may be heading toward another conflict. “For us, there is no reason calling them to withdraw,” Ghadhban said in the interview, referring to Exxon. Lukoil PJSC, BP Plc and Italy’s Eni SpA work in nearby fields including West Qurna-2, Rumaila and Zubair. “The region, south of Iraq, is all secured and peaceful. Work is going on without any halt.” Basrah Gas Co., which operates a major gas field in southern Iraq in partnership with Royal Dutch Shell Plc, also hasn’t made staff changes due to the regional tensions. “So far there is no intention for Shell to withdraw,” Shaalan Al-Darraji, spokesman for state-run Basrah Gas, said in an interview.
Rise Of Terror Chemical & Biological Attack Drones- Russian FSB Chief Says Jihadists Have Them – The head of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has warned that dangerous non-state actors now possess the capability of equipping drones with chemical weapons and biological weapons in order to maximize mass casualty events. Speaking at a major conference hosting the security agencies of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) on Tuesday, FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov highlighted the ever growing sophisticated and high-tech arsenal of global terrorists, including that “The criminals have materials, technology and infrastructure for the production of chemical weapons and biotoxins,” according to one Russian English language report. He specifically highlighted the jihadist threat from the war-torn Middle East in places like Syria and Iraq, where Russia intervened starting in 2015 at the request of Damascus. “Although international terrorist organizations suffered great losses in Syria and Iraq, they still have enough resources, particularly provided by their foreign sponsors, to carry out attacks around the world,” Bortnikov said, according to TASS.The longtime FSB chief said further that, “large jihadist units have been defeated but now they are trying either to regroup in areas not controlled by the Syrian government or to take shelter in refugee camps.”He also sounded an alarm which has now for years been a familiar worry for Europe – the return of foreign fighters who had previously traveled illegally to Europe. “We know about intentions of the leaders of international terrorist organisations to use widows, wives and children of militants who come back en mass,” he said.
UK suffers crushing defeat in UN vote on Chagos Islands -The United Nations general assembly has overwhelmingly backed a motion condemning Britain’s occupation of the remote Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean.The 116-6 vote left the UK diplomatically isolated and was also a measure of severely diminished US clout on the world stage. Washington had campaigned vigorously at the UN and directly in talks with national capitals around the world in defence of the UK’s continued control of the archipelago, where there is a US military base at Diego Garcia.The vote was in support of a motion setting a six-month deadline for Britain to withdraw from the Chagos island chain and for the islands to be reunified with neighbouring Mauritius. It endorsed an advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in February, calling on the UK to relinquish its hold on the territory in order to complete the process of decolonisation.The US, Hungary, Israel, Australia and the Maldives backed the UK in the vote and 56 countries abstained, including France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, Poland and Romania. Other European allies including Austria, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland voted for the UK to relinquish sovereignty.The scale of the defeat for the UK and US came as a surprise even to Mauritius, in view of the concerted campaign pursued by London and Washington.
US Accidentally Kills 17 Afghan Police After ‘Miscommunication During Airstrike – US airstrikes killed 17 Afghan police officers and wounded 14 others due to a “miscommunication” while fighting with Taliban forces, according to Stars and Stripes, citing Afghan officials. The “friendly fire” incident, which took place in Afghanistan’s southern Helmand province Thursday evening, occurred after Afghan security forces called in US air support amid heavy fire from Taliban fighters just outside the province’s capital, Lashkar Gah. The incident began after a police officer and two of his men decided to take down a Taliban flag from a nearby water tower on Thursday night, within walking distance from a police training center. When they arrived to remove the flag, police tripped a mine, which exploded and alerted the Taliban to their presence. The guerrillas began firing on them. Police at the nearby training center arrived to assist the first three officers but were unable to drive the Taliban back, he said. The police unit then requested air support. Residents of Lashkar Gah heard a very loud explosion around 8:30 p.m. Thursday, they said. –Stars and Stripes. The US military says they were told that the area was clear of allied units.
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