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Market Watch 666 For 12May 2019

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9월 6, 2021
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Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666

April’s consumer and producer prices; March’s trade deficit, wholesale trade, and job openings..

Regular monthly reports that were released this week included the the April Consumer Price Index and the April Producer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Commerce Dept report on our international trade in goods and services for March, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for March, also from the BLS, and the Wholesale Trade, Sales and Inventories report for March from the Census Bureau

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In addition, the Consumer Credit Report for March was released by the Fed this week, and it showed that overall consumer credit, a measure of non-real estate debt, expanded by a seasonally adjusted $10.3 billion, or at a 3.1% annual rate, as non-revolving credit expanded at a 5.0% annual rate to $2,994.9 billion while revolving credit outstanding shrunk at a 2.5% rate to $1,057.2 billion…

The major privately issued report released this week was the Mortgage Monitor for March from Black Knight Financial Services….they reported that 3.65% of US home mortgages were delinquent in March, down from 3.86% in February and down from 3.73% in March a year ago, and that 0.51% of all mortgages were in the foreclosure process at the end of the month, the same percentage as in February but down from the 0.63% of mortgages that were in foreclosure in March a year ago..

See also:

  • Second Quarter 2019 Survey of Professional Forecasters See Lower Near-Term Growth
  • April 2019 Conference Board Employment Index Slightly Increases
  • March 2019 CoreLogic Home Prices Up 3.7% Year-over-Year
  • April 2019 CBO Monthly Budget Review: Spending Up by 7 Percent in the First Seven Months of Fiscal Year
  • Weekly Economic Release Summary – Is Consumer Credit Outstanding A Headwind to Economic Growth?

April Consumer Prices Up 0.3% on Higher Rent and Energy Prices

The consumer price index rose 0.3% in April as higher prices for shelter and gasoline were only partially offset by lower prices for groceries, used cars and clothing…. the Consumer Price Index Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the seasonally adjusted price index for urban consumers rose 0.3% in April after it had risen 0.4% in March, 0.2% in February, been unchanged in January, in December and in November, and had risen 0.3% in October, 0.1% in September, 0.1% in August, and 0.2% in July…the unadjusted CPI-U index, which was set with prices of the 1982 to 1984 period equal to 100, rose from 254.202 in March to 255.548 in April, which left it statistically 1.996% higher than the 250.546 index reading in March of last year, which is reported as a 2.0% year over year increase….with higher prices for gasoline a major reason for the increase in the overall index, seasonally adjusted core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose by just 0.1% for the month, as the unadjusted core price index rose from 261.836 to 262.332, which left the core index 2.065% ahead of its year ago reading of 257.025, which is reported as a 2.1% year over year increase, up from 2.0% in March…

The volatile seasonally adjusted energy price index rose 2.9% in April, after rising 3.5% in March, 0.4% in February, falling 3.1% in January, falling 2.6% in December, falling 2.8% in November, rising by 2.1% in October, and falling by 1.0% in September, and is now 1.7% higher than in April a year ago…the price index for energy commodities was 5.4% higher in April, while the index for energy services fell 0.1%, after rising by 0.3% in March…the energy commodity index was up 5.4% due to a 5.7% increase in price of gasoline, the largest component, and a 1.3% increase in the index for fuel oils, while prices for other energy commodities, such as propane, kerosene, and firewood, averaged 1.0% lower…within energy services, the price index for utility gas service fell 0.8% after falling 0.1% in March and is now 1.4% lower than it was a year ago, while the electricity price index was unchanged, after it had risen 0.4% in March….energy commodities are now 2.9% higher than their year ago levels, with gasoline prices averaging 3.1% higher than they were a year ago, while the energy services price index is unchanged from last April, as electricity prices are still 0.6% higher than a year ago…

The seasonally adjusted food price index was 0.1% lower in April, after rising 0.3% in March, 0.4% in February, 0.2% in January, 0.3 in December, 0.2% in November, being unchanged in October, rising 0.1% in September, 0.1% in August, and 0.1% in July, as the price index for food purchased for use at home fell 0.5% in April, while the index for food bought to eat away from home was 0.3% higher, as prices at fast food outlets rose 0.3% and prices at full service restaurants rose 0.2%, while food prices at employee sites and schools were on average 0.2% higher…

In the food at home categories, the price index for cereals and bakery products was 0.1% lower even though average bread prices rose 0.7%, because the price index for flour and prepared flour mixes fell 1.1% and the price index for fresh biscuits, rolls, muffins fell 0.6%….at the same time, the price index for the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs group was 0.2% lower, even as pork chop prices rose 2.7%, because fresh fish & seafood prices averaged 1.8% lower and egg prices fell 3.2%…on the other hand, the seasonally adjusted index for dairy products was 0.1% higher, as fresh whole milk prices rose 1.1%, while the cheese price index was unchanged…meanwhile, the fruits and vegetables index was 0.9% lower on a a 2.2% decrease in the price index for canned fruits and vegetables and a 0.9% decrease in the price index for fresh fruits, led by a 4.4% decrease in prices for oranges….the beverages index was also 0.9% lower, as the index for noncarbonated juices and drinks fell 1.3% while coffee prices were 0.4% lower…lastly, the index for the ‘other foods at home’ category was 0.6% lower, as the index for sugar and artificial sweeteners fell 1.6%, butter prices fell 3.9%, and salad dressing prices fell 1.7%….the itemized list for price changes of over 100 separate food items is included at the beginning of Table 2 for this release, which also gives us a line item breakdown for prices of more than 200 CPI items overall…since last April, just lettuce, which is still priced 15.9% higher than a year ago, and eggs, which are down 16.4% since last April, are the only ‘food at home’ line items that have seen prices change by more than 10% over the past year…

Among the seasonally adjusted core components of the CPI, which rose by 0.1% in April after rising by 0.1% in March, 0.1% in February, and by 0.2% for the five months prior to that, after rising by 0.1% in August 0.2% in July, 0.2% in June, 0.2% in May, and by 0.1% last April, the composite price index of all goods less food and energy goods was 0.3% lower, while the more heavily weighted composite for all services less energy services was 0.3% higher….among the goods components, which will be used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to adjust April retail sales for inflation in national accounts data, the index for household furnishings and supplies was down 0.5%, as the price index for window and floor coverings fell 1.4% while the price index for furniture and bedding was 0.7% lower…at the same time, the apparel price index was 0.8% lower on a 4.2% drop in the price index for boy’s apparel, a 1.9% decrease in the price index for men’s apparel, and a 1.6% decrease in the price index for footwear…in addition, the price index for transportation commodities other than fuel was 0.4% lower, as prices for new cars and trucks rose 0.1%, prices for used cars and trucks fell 1.3%, and the price index for motor oil, coolant, and fluids was 5.2% lower….on the other hand, prices for medical care commodities averaged 0.9% higher as prescription drugs prices rose 0.6%, nonprescription drugs prices rose 0.7%, and the price index for medical equipment and supplies rose 2.0%….meanwhile, the recreational commodities index was down 0.3% on a 1.4% decrease in TV prices, a 1.7% decrease in the price index for toys, a 0.9% decrease in the price index for sporting goods, and a 2.6% decrease in the price index for sewing machines, fabric and supplies….in addition, the education and communication commodities index was 1.1% lower on a 4.2% decrease in the index for computer software and accessories and a 1.5% decrease in the index for computers, peripherals, and smart home assistant devices…lastly, a separate price index for alcoholic beverages was 0.2% higher, while the price index for ‘other goods’ rose 0.1% on a 0.6% increase in the price index for hair, dental, shaving, and miscellaneous personal care products…

Within core services, the price index for shelter rose 0.4% on a 0.4% increase in rents, a 0.3% increase in homeowner’s equivalent rent, and a 1.8% increase in lodging away from home at hotels and motels, while the shelter sub-index for water, sewers and trash collection rose 0.3%, and other household operation costs were on average 0.6% higher….at the same time, the price index for medical care services was 0.2% higher, as doctors’ services rose 0.2% and health insurance rose 1.5%…meanwhile, the transportation services index was 0.1% higher as car and truck rentals rose 0.3%, vehicle body work rose 1.0% and intercity bus fares rose 2.9%…in addition, the recreation services price index was 0.2% higher as the index for rental of video discs and other media rose 1.7% and admissions to sporting events rose 2.7%….the index for education and communication services was also 0.2% higher as technical and business school tuitions rose 0.7% and delivery services rose 0.6%….lastly, the index for other personal services was down 0.2% as the price index for legal services fell 1.2%…among core line items, prices for televisions, which are still 18.8% cheaper than a year ago, the price index for telephone hardware, calculators, and other consumer information items, which is down by 14.4% since last April, the price index for dishes and flatware, which is down by 11.4% from a year ago, prices for women’s dresses, which are down 11.0% over the past year, and the price index for infants’ equipment, which is down by 10.1% from a year ago, have all seen prices drop by more than 10% over the past year, while the cost of health insurance, which is up by 10.7% over the past year, and the price index for Intercity bus fare, which has now increased 11.0% year over year, are the only line items to have increased by a double digit magnitude over that span.

See also:

  • April 2019 CPI: Year-over-Year Inflation Rate Rises to 2.0%

Producer Prices up 0.2% in April on Higher Energy & Transportation Prices

The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.2% in April, as prices for finished wholesale goods averaged 0.3% higher, while average margins of final services providers rose 0.1%…that followed that followed a March report that showed the PPI had increased by 0.6%, with prices for finished wholesale goods up 1.0% and margins of final services providers up 0.3%, a February report that showed the PPI had increased by 0.1%, with prices for finished wholesale goods on average 0.4% higher, while margins of final services providers were unchanged, a revised January report that showed the PPI 0.2% lower, with prices for finished wholesale goods on average 0.7% lower, while margins of final services providers had increased by 0.2%, and a revised December figures that had the PPI down 0.1%, with prices for finished wholesale goods down 0.6% while margins of final services providers were 0.2% higher…on an unadjusted basis, producer prices are 2.2% higher than a year ago, same as the year over year increase that had been indicated by last month’s report…meanwhile, the core producer price index, which excludes food, energy and trade services, was up 0.4% for the month, and is now also 2.2% higher than in April a year ago, up from 2.0% YoY a month ago…

As we noted, the price index for final demand for goods, aka ‘finished goods’, was 0.3% higher in April, after being 1.0% higher in March, 0.4% higher in February, 0.7% lower in January, 0.6% lower in December, 0.5% lower in November, 0.8% higher in October, and 0.1% lower in September….the finished goods index rose because the price index for wholesale energy was 1.8% higher, after rising 5.6% in March and 1.8% in February, while the price index for wholesale foods fell 0.2% after rising 0.3% in March, and while the index for final demand for core wholesale goods (excluding food and energy) was unchanged…wholesale energy prices rose on a 5.9% increase in the wholesale price for gasoline, even as wholesale prices for liquefied petroleum gas fell 10.7%, while the wholesale food price index fell on a 16.1% decrease in wholesale prices for fresh eggs and a 11.6% decrease in wholesale prices for fresh and dry vegetables….among wholesale core goods, the wholesale price index for footwear rose 2.2% while wholesale prices for industrial chemicals fell 1.0%..

At the same time, the index for final demand for services rose 0.1% in April, after rising 0.3% in March, being unchanged in February, rising a revised 0.1% in January, and rising a revised 0.2% in December, as the April index for final demand for trade services fell 0.5% while the index for final demand for transportation and warehousing services rose 0.8% and the core index for final demand for services less trade, transportation, and warehousing services was 0.3% higher….among trade services, seasonally adjusted margins for food and beverage retailers fell 3.1%, margins for health, beauty, and optical goods retailers also fell 3.1%, margins for apparel, jewelry, footwear and accessories retailers fell 2.6%, and margins for major household appliances retailers fell 2.0%, while margins for sporting goods and boat retailers rose 2.8%… among transportation and warehousing services, margins for airline passenger services rose 3.6% and margins for rail transportation of freight and mail rose 0.9%…among the components of the core final demand for services index, margins for arrangement of cruises and tours rose 7.8% and margins for portfolio management rose 5.9%..

This report also showed the price index for intermediate processed goods fell 0.1% in April, after rising 0.8% in March, rising 0.4% in February, but falling a revised 1.2% in both December and January…the price index for intermediate energy goods rose 0.6%, as refinery prices for gasoline rose 5.9% and refinery prices for residual fuels rose 3.2%, while producer prices for liquefied petroleum gas fell 10.7%…at the same time, prices for intermediate processed foods and feeds also rose 0.6%, as the producer price indexes for meat and for processed poultry both rose 2.8 % and producer prices for dairy products rose 1.0%…on the other hand, the core price index for intermediate processed goods less food and energy fell 0.4% as wholesale prices for thermoplastic resins and materials fell 6.7% and prices for nitrogenates fell 8.4%…however, prices for intermediate processed goods are still 0.7% higher than in April a year ago, now the 29th consecutive year over year increase, after 16 months of negative year over year comparisons, as intermediate goods prices fell every month from July 2015 through March 2016….

Meanwhile, the price index for intermediate unprocessed goods rose 2.7% in April after rising 2.3% in March, but after falling 4.6% in February and a revised 4.7% in January, but rising a revised 3.7% in December after falling 3.3% in November….that was as the April price index for crude energy goods rose 3.7% on a 13.9% jump in crude oil prices, and as the price index for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs also rose 3.7% on a 55.9% increase in producer prices for slaughter hogs…on the other hand, the index for core raw materials other than food and energy materials fell 1.2%, as prices for aluminum base scrap fell 10.8% and prices for carbon steel scrap declined 3.7%…this raw materials index is still 2.0% lower than a year ago, as much of the increase previously reported in late 2018 has been revised lower…

Lastly, the price index for services for intermediate demand rose 0.3% in April, after rising 0.4% in March, falling 0.1% in February, rising 0.2% in January, and rising 0.1% in December and in November…the price index for intermediate trade services was 0.7% higher, as margins for intermediate metals, minerals, and ores wholesalers rose 6.1% and margins for intermediate machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesalers rose 0.9%…at the same time, the index for transportation and warehousing services for intermediate demand rose 0.6%, as the intermediate index for transportation of passengers (partial) rose 3.6%…meanwhile, the core price index for intermediate services less trade, transportation, and warehousing rose 0.3%, as the index for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services rose 1.2% and the index for internet advertising space sales, excluding internet ads sold by print publishers rose 2.2%…..over the 12 months ended in March, the year over year price index for services for intermediate demand, which has never turned negative on an annual basis, is now 2.8% higher than it was a year ago…

See also:

  • April 2019 Producer Price Final Demand Year-over-Year Growth Unchanged

March Trade Deficit Increases 1.5% on Higher Imports of Crude Oil

Our trade deficit was 1.5% higher in March, as both our imports and exports increased, but our imports increased by more….the Commerce Department report on our international trade in goods and services for March indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by $0.7 billion to $50.0 billion in March, from a February deficit that was revised from the originally reported $49.4 billion to $49.3 billion…in rounded totals, the value of our March exports rose by $2.1 billion to $212.0 billion on a $2.0 billion increase to $141.7 billion in our exports of goods and a $0.1 billion increase to $70.3 billion in our exports of services, while our imports rose by $2.8 billion to $262.0 billion on a $2.6 billion increase to $214.1 billion in our imports of goods and a $0.2 billion increase to $47.8 billion in our imports of services….export prices averaged 0.7% higher in March, so real exports were smaller than their nominal value by that percentage, while import prices were 0.6% higher, meaning that our real imports were likewise smaller than than their nominal value by that percentage..

Our March exports of goods rose due to greater exports of industrial supplies and materials and of foods, feeds, and beverages…referencing the Full Release and Tables for March (pdf), in Exhibit 7 we find that our exports of industrial supplies and materials rose by $1,720 million to $44,774 million on a $357 million increase in our exports of natural gas liquids, a $317 million increase in our exports of fuel oil, a $272 million increase in our exports of metallurgical grade coal, and a $256 million increase in our exports of other petroleum products, and that our exports of foods, feeds and beverages rose by $751 million to $11,349 million on a $546 million increase in our exports of soybeans…in addition, our exports of consumer goods rose by $63 million to $17,865 million, and our exports of other goods not categorized by end use rose by $165 million to $5,525 million….partially offsetting those increases, our exports of capital goods fell by $534 million to $47,511 million on a $690 million decrease in our exports civilian aircraft and a $361 million decrease in our exports of semiconductors, and our exports of automotive vehicles, parts, and engines fell by $52 million to $14,071 million on a $330 million decrease in our exports of passenger cars…

Exhibit 8 in the Full Release and Tables gives us seasonally adjusted details on our goods imports and shows that higher imports of industrial supplies and materials and of foods, feeds, and beverages were also responsible for the increase in March imports…our imports of industrial supplies and materials rose by $2,397 million to $44,966 million on a $1,402 million increase in our imports of crude oil, a $467 million increase in our imports of organic chemicals, and a $396 million increase in our imports of petroleum products other than fuel oil, and our imports of foods, feeds, and beverages rose by $993 million to $13,056 million on a $213 million increase in our imports of fish and shellfish and on a $479 million increase in our imports of other foods…in addition, our imports of automotive vehicles, parts and engines rose by $92 million to $32,011 million as a $587 million increase in our imports of trucks, buses, and special purpose vehicles was offset by a $452 million decrease in our imports of new and used passenger cars, and our imports of capital goods rose by $19 million to $57,236 million as a $374 million increase in our imports of computers was offset by a $272 million decrease in our imports of electric apparatuses, a $257 million decrease in our imports of computer accessories, and a $207 million decrease in our imports of civilian aircraft…partially offsetting the increases in those end-use categories, our imports of consumer goods fell by $677 million to $56,053 million on a $1,087 million decrease in our imports of cellphones, a $584 million decrease in our imports of TVs and video equipment, a $488 million decrease in our imports of artwork, antiques and other collectibles, and a $348 million decrease in our imports of toys, games and sporting goods, and our imports of other goods not categorized by end use fell by $205 million to $9,100 million…

The Full Release and Tables pdf for this report also gives us surplus and deficit details on our goods trade with selected countries:

The March figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with South and Central America ($4.2), Hong Kong ($2.4), Brazil ($0.9), OPEC ($0.7), Saudi Arabia ($0.3), and Singapore ($0.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($28.3), European Union ($15.8), Mexico ($8.6), Japan ($6.1), Germany ($5.7), Italy ($2.8), Canada ($2.1), Taiwan ($2.0), South Korea ($1.8), India ($1.8), France ($1.7), and United Kingdom ($0.2).

  • The deficit with the European Union increased $3.4 billion to $15.8 billion in March. Exports decreased $1.4 billion to $27.8 billion and imports increased $2.0 billion to $43.6 billion.
  • The balance with Canada shifted from a surplus of $0.5 billion to a deficit of $2.1 billion in March. Exports decreased $0.1 billion to $25.3 billion and imports increased $2.6 billion to $27.5 billion.
  • The deficit with China decreased $1.9 billion to $28.3 billion in March. Exports increased $1.4 billion to $10.5 billion and imports decreased $0.5 billion to $38.8 billion.

This March trade report was not available for the advance report on 1st quarter GDP of two weeks ago, and the Advance Estimate of U.S. International Trade in Goods, which is usually used by the BEA when estimating trade figures for GDP, was not available until last week, so we have to imagine that the March trade data used in the GDP estimate was made up out of whole cloth…for the 1st quarter GDP report, the BEA’s key source data and assumptions (xls) indicated that they had estimated March exports of goods would rise at a $18.0 billion annual rate from those of February, that March exports of services would fall at a $0.6 billion annual rate from those of February, that March imports of goods would rise at a $14.5 billion annual rate from those of February, and that March imports of services would fall at a $0.3 billion annual rate from those of February…hence, the trade figures the BEA had used for March in the GDP had indicated that they estimated an improvement in the March trade deficit at a $3.2 billion annual rate, whereas this report shows that March trade actually deteriorated by $0.6 billion from the previously published February figure, which would work out to an annual rate of about $2.5 billion for the first quarter…taking the $0.1 billion downward revision to February’s trade deficit as a $0.4 billion annual rate adjustment to that, it would still mean that the 1st quarter’s trade deficit had increased at a $2.1 annual rate over the previously published baseline…thus the annualized trade figures used in the GDP report, before adjusting for prices changes, were off by about $5.3 billion, an amount that would suggest a downward revision of 0.09 or 0.10 percentage points to 1st quarter GDP when the 2nd estimate is released at the end of May…

Note, however, that we have not adjusted for changes in price, and that Exhibit 10 in the pdf for this March report indicates that the price adjusted trade in goods for each month going back to October has been revised…the problem is that the 2nd estimate of GDP will not include those trade revisions to October, November, and December, and will only use the revised data for January, February & March, so it will be less accurate than the data available here…that GDP data will not be corrected until the annual revisions to GDP are released at the end of July.…however, Spencer England at Angry Bear has graphed the real trade data incorporating those revisions, so his post shows the accurate revision to real trade that the next GDP report will not.

See also:

  • March 2019 Headline Trade Data Improved?

March Wholesale Sales Up 2.3%, Wholesale Inventories Down 0.1%

The March report on Wholesale Trade, Sales and Inventories (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that the seasonally adjusted value of wholesale sales was at $507.4 billion, up 2.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the revised February level, and 3.9 percent (±0.7 percent) higher than wholesale sales of March 2018… the February preliminary estimate of wholesale sales was revised up from $495.852 billion to $496.126 billion, which the Census reports as “unrevised from the preliminary estimate of up 0.3 percent (±0.4 percent)*” from January…as an intermediate activity, wholesale sales are not included in GDP except insofar as they are a trade service, since the traded goods themselves do not represent an increase in the output of the goods sold….

On the other hand, the monthly change in private inventories is a major factor in GDP, as additional goods on the shelf represent goods that were produced but not sold, and this March report estimated that wholesale inventories were valued at $669.9 billion at month end, a decrease of 0.1 percent (+/-0.4%) from the revised February level but still 6.7 percent (±1.2 percent) higher than March a year ago, with the February preliminary inventory estimate concurrently revised upward from the originally reported $668.9 to $670.2 billion, which meant the change in inventories from January to February was revised from an increase of 0.2% to one of 0.4%…

The BEA’s Key source data and assumptions (xls) for the advance estimate of first quarter GDP indicates that they had estimated that the value of March wholesale inventories would increase by $2.3 billion from February before price adjustments, while this report shows that wholesale goods inventories decreased by $0.4 billion…however, the value of February’s wholesale inventories was concurrently revised from $1.3 billion higher, which would mean that March’s inventory change vis a vis the 4th quarter was overestimated by a net $1.4 billion in the GDP report, while February’s change was underestimated by $1.3 billion, which combined would suggest a negligible impact on first quarter GDP.

See also:

  • March 2018 Headline Wholesale Sales Improved With Inventories Very High

Job Openings Jump in March; Hiring, Job Quitting and Layoffs Down

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for March from the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that seasonally adjusted job openings increased by 346,000 to 7,488,000 in March, after February job openings were revised up 55,000 from the originally reported 7,087,000…March’s jobs openings were also up 8.6% from the 6,894,000 job openings reported in March a year ago, as the job opening ratio expressed as a percentage of the employed rose to 4.7% in March, up from the 4.5% rate in February and the 4.4% rate of March a year ago…(details on job openings by industry and region can be viewed in Table 1)…like most BLS releases, the press release for this report is easy to understand and also refers us to the associated table for the data cited, which are linked at the end of the release…

The JOLTS release also reports on labor turnover, which consists of hires and job separations, which in turn is further divided into layoffs and discharges, those who quit, and ‘other separations’, which includes retirements and deaths….in March, seasonally adjusted new hires totaled 5,660,000, down by 35,000 from the revised 5,695,000 who were hired or rehired in February, as the hiring rate as a percentage of all employed remained unchanged at 3.9% in March, which was also the same as the hiring rate in March a year earlier (details of hiring by sector since November are in table 2)….meanwhile, total separations fell by 142,000 to 5,434,000 in March, as the separations rate as a percentage of the employed fell from 3.7% to 3.6%, which was also down from 3.7% a year ago (see table 3)…subtracting the 5,434,000 total separations from the total hires of 5,660,000 would imply an increase of 226,000 jobs in March, less than the revised payroll job increase of 189,000 for March reported in the April establishment survey last week, but still within the expected +/-115,000 margin of error in these incomplete samplings……

Breaking down the seasonally adjusted job separations, the BLS found that 3,409,000 of us voluntarily quit our jobs in March, down from the revised 3,447,000 who quit their jobs in February, while the quits rate, widely watched as an indicator of worker confidence, remained unchanged at 2.3% of total employment, which was still up from 2.2% a year earlier (see details in table 4)….in addition to those who quit, another 1,700,000 were either laid off, fired or otherwise discharged in March, down by 84,000 from the revised 1,784,000 who were discharged in February, as the discharges rate fell from 1.2% to 1.1% of all those who were employed during the month, which was also down from 1.2% a year ago…meanwhile, other separations, which includes retirements and deaths, were at 325,000 in March, down from 346,000 in February, for an ‘other separations rate’ of 0.2%, same as in February but down from 0.3% in March of last year….both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted details by industry and by region on hires and job separations, and on job quits and discharges can be accessed using the links to tables at the bottom of the press release.

See also:

  • March 2019 Headline JOLTS Job Openings Rate Predicting Lower Employment Growth

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Oil Giant Schlumberger Rebrands Itself As SLB For Low-Carbon Future

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