Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 30 Apr 2019
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, published Monday, Wednesday and Friday, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
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​Global
- Stocks in Asia Pacific mixed; China’s manufacturing sector grows less than expected (CNBC) Shares in Asia-Pacific were mixed on Tuesday after China data showed that manufacturing activity grew less than expected. Meanwhile, trade negotiations between the U.S. and China were set to resume in Beijing. The U.S. dollar index was higher at 97.867 after seeing an earlier low of 97.784. Brent crude futures contract added 0.29% to $72.25 per barrel and U.S. crude futures were 0.27% higher at $63.67 per barrel. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,285 per ounce. U.S. gold futures were up 0.4% at $1,286.20 an ounce.
U.S.
- GOP sets up firewall for Trump on Mueller (The Hill) Senate Republicans are beginning to set up a firewall for President Trump against special counsel Robert Mueller’s report, pushing back at a slew of Democratic attacks on the president’s conduct as described in the document. Sen. John Cornyn (R, TX) on Monday set the tone for his caucus’s rank and file, signaling the GOP will join the White House in casting Democratic attacks emanating from the Mueller report as being all about the 2020 campaign.
- Sliding U.S. Inflation May Provoke Fed Rate Cut Later This Year (Bloomberg) U.S. inflation is sliding again, and this time Federal Reserve officials may feel compelled to respond. After a gauge of price pressures central bankers watch closely finally rose above their 2 percent target last summer — marking the first time north of it since 2012 — it moderated to 1.8 percent in January, and some forecasters see it heading lower still throughout the first half of the year. That may be reflected in two Commerce Department reports slated to be published in the coming days.
- Mattis ignored orders from Trump, White House on North Korea, Iran: report (The Hill) Former Defense Secretary James Mattis declined to carry out orders from President Trump or otherwise limited his options in various attempts to prevent tensions with North Korea, Iran and Syria from escalating, The New Yorker reported Monday, the latest account of Trump’s own officials trying to check his worst instincts. A former senior national security official told The New Yorker:
“The president thinks out loud. Do you treat it like an order? Or do you treat it as part of a longer conversation? We treated it as part of a longer conversation.”
- The Trump economy: From boomlet to boom? (American Enterprise Institute) James Pethokoukis asks if the current uptick in productivity is the result of the Trump tax cut or a longer-term story where more businesses are finally figuring out how to better use advances in AI and other technologies? Watch the latest productivity numbers being reported at the end of this week.
- Trump is deeply underwater with voters on this key 2020 issue (Alternet) A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that voters, by a 17-point margin, say they are more likely to oppose his reelection over his healthcare sabotage. Trump’s average approval rating in this poll is at a historic low – by almost 10 points – among all presidents, at 38%. In this latest poll, 55% say that they absolutely will not vote for him next year. Voter intensity more than a year out is also remarkably high – 75% of Americans and 85% of registered voters say they will definitely vote in 2020.
On the issue of health care, just 23 percent say that they are more likely to vote for him because of how he’s handled it, while 40 percent say it’s made them more likely to oppose him. In 2018, among voters who ranked health care as their top issue, 75 percent voted for Democrats, sweeping them into office in a huge wave.
- The Trump Administration Is Finally Admitting That Trade Wars Aren’t Easy to Win (Reason) Hat tip to John O’Donnell, Online Trading Academy. After overpromising the benefits and underestimating the costs, reality is starting to puncture the White House’s messaging on trade. Roughly a year after Trump gleefully launched a trade war with the promise that it would be “good and easy to win,” it is now increasingly obvious that the president and many of his top economic advisors oversold the benefits and underestimated the costs of trade policies that have caused America to clash with not just Canada and Mexico, but China, Japan, Europe, and other major trading partners. See also Cleaning Out Americans And Their Laundry.
- U.S. Housing Listings Growth Declines (The Daily Shot) Here are the year-over-year changes in housing listings across major price range classifications.
- U.S. House elections without a Democratic or Republican candidate, 1920-2018 (BallotPedia) Over the past 100 years, 14.4% of all U.S. House general elections had only one major party candidate.[1] This page compiles a list of which districts those were and how many there were each cycle from 1920 to 2018. In 2018, 41 of the 435 U.S. House seats had only one major party candidate on the ballot in the general election. In comparison, there were 61 such seats in 2016 and 76 in 2014. The 2018 cases consisted of three seats with no Democratic candidate on the general election ballot and 38 seats without a Republican candidate. The number of seats without a Democratic candidate dropped over the course of the three election cycles; it fell from 36 in 2014 to three in 2018. In comparison, 40 U.S. House races did not have a Republican candidate in 2014 compared to 38 in 2018. First graphic below is map for 2018.
EU
- Search Activity Indicates Sharp Rise in Credit/Lending Activity in the Eurozone (The Daily Shot) Credit/lending related online search activity has been improving. See also next article.
- Credit Growth in Eurozone Decelerates (Twitter) See also preceding article.
UK
- Britain’s Labour meets to decide stance on second Brexit referendum (Reuters) Britain’s main opposition Labour Party meets on Tuesday to hammer out its position on whether to demand a second referendum on any Brexit deal as part of its campaign for the European parliament election next month.
- Two-thirds of Britons agree planet is in a climate emergency (The Guardian) Two-thirds of people in the UK recognise there is a climate emergency and 76% say that they would cast their vote differently to protect the planet. The findings, in a poll commissioned by Greenpeace, come as the group unveiled a detailed “climate manifesto”, listing 134 key actions they say the government should take immediately to ensure the UK hits zero carbon emissions as soon as possible.
Germany
- Trump team sues Deutsche Bank and Capital One to keep them from turning over financial records to Congress (CNN) President Donald Trump, three of his children — Donald Jr., Eric and Ivanka — and his business are suing two banks to block them from turning over financial records to congressional committees that have issued subpoenas for the information. It’s the second attempt in court that Trump has made this month to thwart the Democratic-led House of Representatives from investigating his financial history.
- Germany’s Export Machine is Slowing (Twitter) Recession may be close.
- Why India can’t be the next China, and shouldn’t try (The Economic Times) Comparing these two giants is a popular thought experiment, but they have nothing in common other than populations of a billion plus. China is a one-party autocracy that mobilised its homogeneous Han and Mandarin-speaking majorities behind a decades-long campaign of radical reform. India is a diverse multi-party democracy that will always struggle to rally its hundreds of ethnic and linguistic minorities behind any single goal.
There is still reason to believe in India’s economic prospects, but hope won’t come from prime ministers in Delhi, it will come from dynamic chief ministers in state capitals. These figures often double as leaders of their own regional parties. Right now the conventional wisdom is that Modi and his party are likely to return to power but with fewer seats in the Parliament, which would leave him more dependent on regional leaders.
That would not be a bad outcome. India is better off accepting its exuberantly diverse and democratic nature, and giving its state leaders more authority to govern themselves, than trying to be the next China.
North Korea
- North Korea warns of ‘undesired’ outcome if no change in U.S. nuclear stance (Reuters) North Korea’s vice foreign minister said on Tuesday the United States will face “undesired consequences” if it fails to present a new position in denuclearisation talks by the end of the year, state media reported.
China
- “We’re getting into the final laps,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was quoted by the New York Times as saying, during an interview at the Milken Institute Global Conference.
- According to the report, Mnuchin said that while both countries are nearing a deal, negotiations are reaching a stage where either an agreement could happen – or it could end without a deal.
- Both Mnuchin and U.S Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will be in Beijing for talks that start on April 30 (today).
Venezuela
- Venezuela’s Guaido says troops have joined him to end Maduro presidency (Reuters) Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido said on Tuesday he had begun the “final phase” of his plan to oust President Nicolas Maduro, calling on Venezuelans and the military to back him to end Maduro’s “usurpation.”
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