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Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary “reading list” which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for “reading list” items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.
This feature is published Monday, Wednesday, and Friday in the late afternoon New York time. For early morning review of headlines see “The Early Bird” published Monday through Friday in the early am at GEI News (membership not required for access to “The Early Bird”.).
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Topics today include 16 articles and 16 graphics:​
- Mortgage rates plunge at the fastest pace in a decade as growth fears resurface
- New Rental Properties Still Being Built at Elevated Rate
- Is The Stock Market As Confused As You Are About A Recession?
- U.S. Stock Market Fund Flows
- Senior U.S. House Republican questions Trump plan to cut Central American aid
- Nine White House officials of interest in Dem security clearance probe
- White House staffer tells Oversight Committee of ‘grave’ concerns with security clearances
- Davis says evidence shows Trump Jr. could be indicted
- U.S.Industrial Output
- February 2019 Headline Industrial Production Marginally Improved But Year-over-Year Growth Declined
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs
- Brexit: The bigger picture – Revitalizing UK exports in the new world of trade
- IHS MARKIT / BME GERMANY MANUFACTURING PMI®
- Erdogan on track to lose Turkey’s biggest cities in shock poll upset
- U.S. halts F-35 equipment to Turkey, protests its plans to buy from Russia
- U.S. considering additional Iran sanctions, perhaps in May: official
- And More
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Articles about events, conflicts and disease around the world
Global
- Senior U.S. House Republican questions Trump plan to cut Central American aid (Reuters) The top Republican on the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee said on Monday that cutting aid to El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras would make the situation there worse, not better, a sign that President Donald Trump will face bipartisan objections in Congress as he pursues the plan.
U.S.
- Nine White House officials of interest in Dem security clearance probe (The Hill) Democrats on the House Oversight Committee are zeroing in on a handful of current and former officials in President Trump’s White House as part of their investigation into the administration’s security clearance practices. Committee Chairman Elijah Cummings (D, MD) has ramped up the probe in recent weeks, accusing the White House of stonewalling his efforts to obtain additional documentation and information about the process. (See also White House staffer tells Oversight Committee of ‘grave’ concerns with security clearances) A total of 25 people were granted clearances after initially being denied. While Cummings did not identify the 25 people in Monday’s memo, here are nine current and former officials the committee has prioritized as part of its investigation into White House security clearances:
- John Bolton
- Jared Kushner
- Ivanka Trump
- Michael Flynn
- Rob Porter
- Sebastian Gorka
- K.T. McFarland
- John McEntee
- Robin Townley
- Davis says evidence shows Trump Jr. could be indicted (The Hill) Michael Cohen’s attorney Lanny Davis on Monday said Donald Trump Jr. should be indicted for signing a check that Cohen said served as a repayment for money he gave Stormy Daniels in return for her silence about an alleged affair with President Trump. Davis told Hill.TV’s “Rising” hosts Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti on Monday:
“I do suggest, respectfully, that Donald Jr., based upon signing a hush money check for his father – out of a trust fund, by the way, that was set up to prevent any money being spent that would help Donald Trump while he was president – out of that trust fund is where the Donald Jr. check was written, that is a crime.”
- U.S.Industrial Output (The Daily Shot) Despite slower industrial output in recent months, the US continues to outperform other OECD economies. This relative strength is due to lower US reliance on demand from Asia (chart below shows relative industrial production outperformance). See also February 2019 Headline Industrial Production Marginally Improved But Year-over-Year Growth Declined.
EU
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs (Business Insider) The recession in German manufacturing is worse than we thought (see article under Germany – below) and that may take the entire Eurozone down with it.
The average for the eurozone – the 19 countries that use the euro currency – is now in negative territory. Of the four largest economies, only Spain is in positive territory.
UK
- Brexit deadlocked again: British parliament fails to find an alternative (Reuters) Britain was no nearer to resolving the chaos surrounding its departure from the European Union after parliament failed on Monday to find a majority of its own for any alternative to Prime Minister Theresa May’s divorce deal.
- Brexit: The bigger picture – Revitalizing UK exports in the new world of trade (McKinsey) The United Kingdom is the fifth-largest exporter in the world, in value-added terms. Roughly 70% of FTSE 100 companies’ revenues come from overseas. UK companies enjoy a comparative advantage in a wide range of sectors, from insurance to food and drinks to chemicals and pharmaceuticals. Even for products that the United Kingdom predominantly imports, such as clothing, some of the components (for example, the original design and recycled materials) often originate in the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom excels in services exports, which, in value-added terms, are almost twice the value of its goods exports. However, in recent years the UK has been losing share of export markets.
Germany
- IHS MARKIT / BME GERMANY MANUFACTURING PMI® (Markit Economics) Germany’s manufacturing sector sank deeper into contraction at the end of the opening quarter, with latest PMI® survey data from IHS Markit and BME signalling faster decreases in output, new orders and export sales. There were signs of sluggish demand and an uncertain outlook affecting firms’ employment decisions, as payroll numbers fell for the first time in three years. The overall Manufacturing PMI fell to lowest since July 2012.
Turkey
- Erdogan on track to lose Turkey’s biggest cities in shock poll upset (Reuters) Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling AK Party was on track on Monday to lose control of Turkey’s two biggest cities, Istanbul and Ankara, in a stunning local election setback that could complicate the president’s plans to combat recession.
- U.S. halts F-35 equipment to Turkey, protests its plans to buy from Russia (Reuters) The United States has halted delivery of equipment related to the stealthy F-35 fighter aircraft to Turkey, marking the first concrete U.S. step to block delivery of the jet to the NATO ally in light of Ankara’s planned purchase of a Russian missile defense system.
Iran
- U.S. considering additional Iran sanctions, perhaps in May: official (Reuters) The U.S. government is considering additional sanctions against Iran that would target areas of its economy that have not been hit before, a senior Trump administration official told reporters on Monday.
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Other Scientific, Health, Political, Economics, and Business Items of Note – plus Miscellanea
- Mortgage rates plunge at the fastest pace in a decade as growth fears resurface (Market Watch) Rates for home loans tumbled, as investors snatched up safe assets in the wake of a Federal Reserve policy announcement that took markets by surprise.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.06% in the March 28 week, mortgage guarantor Freddie Mac said Thursday. That was a 14-month low, and 22-basis point slide was the biggest weekly decline since June 2009. The popular product has managed a weekly gain only twice during 2019.
- New Rental Properties Still Being Built at Elevated Rate (Market Watch) The housing industry is, slowly, adapting. One example: home builders are increasingly constructing houses for rent, rather than for purchase by owner-occupants. The data in the chart above comes from economists at the National Association of Home Builders, who have tracked the trend across several decades.
Even with the increase, the share of single-family homes constructed for rentals purposes is only 5%, well below the share of all rental units that happen to be single-family homes. NAHB Chief Economist Rob Dietz pointed out in a research post on the topic that “as homes age, they are more likely to be rented.”
- Is The Stock Market As Confused As You Are About A Recession? (Lance Roberts, Real Investment Advice) LR contributes weekly to GEI. Lance points out that the problem with all of the mainstream claims that there is “no recession in sight” is those claims are based on analysis of unrevised and lagging economic data. He also points out that GDP is not a good real time indicatror of when a recession is starting. In 6 of the last 9 recessions, real GDP growth was running at 2% or above in the quarter when the NBER (later) declared a recession started. Also, the stock market can be going up or down when a recession is starting.
- U.S. Stock Market Fund Flows (The Daily Shot) Stock prices have been going up but investors are not convinced it will continue. Fund flows remain soft relative to stock prices.
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