Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 20 February 2019
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, published Monday, Wednesday and Friday, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
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​Global
- Major Asia markets close higher; Chinese yuan jumps (CNBC) Major Asian stocks markets mostly closed higher on Wednesday, after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted once again that a closely watched trade deadline in March may be pushed back. The U.S. dollar index was lower at 96.587 after seeing highs around 97 yesterday. Brent crude futures contract slipped 0.12% to $66.37 per barrel. Meanwhile, the U.S. crude futures contract advanced 0.12% to $56.16 per barrel. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,342.46 per ounce after rising to a high of $1,346.73 earlier in the session.
- Citing unnamed analysts, Chinese Communist Party-run newspaper Global Times says in an editorial that if “the US imposes more tariffs on Chinese products while China responds with fiercer countermeasures, it would be a catastrophic strike to global stock markets.”
- U.S. President Donald Trump has frequently cited the American stock market’s performance as a gauge of his success.
- The S&P 500 is up almost 10.9 percent so far this year, while the Shanghai composite has gained more than 10 percent.
- Negative Yields Still Growing (Twitter)
- Oil Misbehaving (The Daily Shot) The WTI curve is still in contango while Brent has moved back into backwardation (negatively sloping curve). When in contango anyone storing the commodity rather than selling is losing money. Backwardation is considered the normal condition.
U.S.
- The 10 GOP senators who may break with Trump on emergency (The Hill) President Trump’s decision to declare a national emergency in order to circumvent Congress and secure funds to build a wall on the Mexican border puts him on a collision course with lawmakers from his own party. No Republican senator has said they will break ranks and vote in favor of a resolution of disapproval that Democrats are expected to bring to the floor, but there are reasons to expect some defections. The 10 most likely to defect:
- Susan Collins (ME)
- Lisa Murkowski (AK)
- Thom Tillis (NC)
- Lamar Alexander (TN)
- Cory Gardner (CO)
- Marco Rubio (FL)
- Mitt Romney (UT)
- Mike Lee (UT)
- Jerry Moran (KS)
- Rand Paul (KY)
- Trump’s loyalty obsession could lead to obstruction case (CNN) President Donald Trump’s craving for loyalty from his top law enforcement officials and alleged efforts to topple those whom he perceives as threats could be leading him into deep trouble — and even put his presidency in peril. Revelations appear to fit into a consistent pattern of attempts by Trump to influence investigations in which he may be implicated and a constant campaign of public and private pressure on the officials involved.
- Bernie Sanders faces new challenges in crowded 2020 U.S. presidential race (Reuters) Bernie Sanders is back for another White House run, but this one promises to be far different than the improbable 2016 presidential campaign that made the Vermont senator a political force.
Federal ethics agency refuses to certify financial disclosure from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross (CNBC)
- The government’s top ethics watchdog disclosed Tuesday that it had refused to certify a financial disclosure report from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.
- The Office of Government Ethics said it wouldn’t certify the 2018 filing by Ross because he didn’t divest stock in BankUnited despite stating otherwise.
- “While I am disappointed that my report was not certified, I remain committed to complying with my ethics agreement and adhering to the guidance of Commerce ethics officials,” Ross said Tuesday in a statement
- Obama-nominated judge says lawsuit seeking to block presidential library can go forward (The Hill) A judge nominated by former President Obama dealt a blow Tuesday to the former president’s efforts to build his presidential library in Chicago with a ruling that a lawsuit challenging the facility’s planned construction can go forward. The Associated Press reports that U.S. District Judge John Robert Blakey ruled Tuesday that a lawsuit from an advocacy group accusing the city of illegally transferring public land to a private entity would not be dismissed.
- CBO Estimates – Suspect Again (The Daily Shot) Has the CBO underestimated the federal deficit in its latest forecasts?
EU
- China is a Key to Confidence in the EU (The Daily Shot) This scatterplot shows industrial confidence in the eurozone vs. sensitivity to Chinese demand.
UK
- May in Brussels again, seeking Brexit movement (Reuters) British Prime Minister Theresa May makes another trip to Brussels on Wednesday, hoping European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker may prove more yielding than of late to salvage her Brexit deal.
Russia
- Putin: We’ll target USA if Washington deploys missiles in Europe (Reuters) Russia will respond to any U.S. deployment of short or intermediate-range nuclear weapons in Europe by targeting not only the countries where they are stationed, but the United States itself, President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday.
Japan
- Japan exports hit by biggest fall in 2 years on weak China demand (Nikkei Asia Review) Japan’s exports in January fell at the fastest pace in more than two years due to weak demand from China, highlighting the headwinds facing the country’s trade-sensitive economy. Exports fell 8.4% from a year earlier to 5.57 trillion yen ($50.2 billion), the Finance Ministry said Wednesday, a steeper decline than economists had expected. That was the sharpest drop since a 10.3% fall in October 2016.
Exports to China, Japan’s largest trading partner in Asia, plunged 17.4% to 958 billion yen, dragging down the overall figure.
North Korea
- North Korea’s Kim shuffles nuclear talks team after defections, spying allegations (Reuters) Veteran North Korean diplomats are being sidelined from nuclear talks ahead of a second summit with the United States as recent defections and allegations of spying undermine the trust of leader Kim Jong Un, South Korean officials and experts say.
China
- China’s Imports from the U.S. Crash (Twitter)
Australia
- ‘Let the bloodbath begin’: House prices in Sydney and Melbourne ‘could halve’ in worst crash since 1890s (news.com.au) Hat tip to Steve Keen. House prices in Sydney and Melbourne could fall by up to 25% this year alone and “there’s a chance they could fall by half” in the coming “property bloodbath“, an economist has warned. LF Economics founder Lindsay David, who has been warning of the looming property crash for the past five years, said in a report today the recent house price falls were just the beginning. CoreLogic data for January showed Sydney and Melbourne prices were now 12.3% and 8.7% down from their respective peaks in July and November 2017, with Melbourne falling at “the fastest rate ever seen“. See next article.
- I’m in Awe of How Fast the Housing Markets in Sydney & Melbourne Are Coming Unglued (Wolf Street) Interest rates appear not to be a factor in the housing market collapse in Australia:
Sky-high prices that have become unaffordable are reason enough to prick a bubble. Part of the reason the bubble even inflated this far is the now widely disclosed scandal of banking and mortgage shenanigans, along with crazy levels of investor speculation, supported by the same banking and mortgage shenanigans.
Venezuela
- Trump Administration Threatens Families Of Venezuelan Military (Medium) US National Security Advisor John Bolton today, following a Miami speech by the president (video below), wrote the following tweet:
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