Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 01 February 2019
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, published Monday, Wednesday and Friday, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
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​Global
- Chinese stocks jump amid trade optimism; manufacturing data disappoints (CNBC) Stocks in China saw strong gains on the first trading day of February as hopes rise for a U.S.-China trade deal. However, the country’s manufacturing data came in below expectations. The U.S. dollar index was higher at 95.591 after seeing lows above 95.1 yesterday. Brent crude futures contract rose 0.18% to $60.95 per barrel while U.S. WTI crude futures was largely flat at $53.81 per barrel. Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,316.95 per ounce at 0719 GMT.
U.S.
- Fed move hints best days of Trumponomics may be over (Reuters) The Fed’s policy shift this week may seem to deliver what President Trump wanted by pausing further rate increases. But the narrative suggests that the best days of Trumponomics may be over.
- Roger Stone warns Trump’s presidency is in peril (CNN) Roger Stone is known for hyperbole, but his latest graphic warning should worry Donald Trump. The political trickster said Tuesday, a day he pleaded not guilty to seven charges laid by special counsel Robert Mueller, that Trump’s presidency is in mortal peril because the Russia investigation amounts to a “speeding bullet heading for his head.”
- CNN analyst: 18 reasons why Trump may be a Russian asset (CNN) Max Boot, a columnist for The Washington Post, discusses with CNN‘s Brooke Baldwin his article listing out 18 reasons why President Donald Trump could be a Russian asset.
- If Howard Schultz Wants To Run For President, He Should Run Against Donald Trump (BuzzFeed News) Howard Schultz’s clumsy and damaging entry into the 2020 presidential race this week offers a lesson for billionaires who would like to replace Donald Trump: They should consider running against Donald Trump. And the place to do that is the wide-open Republican primary.
Donald Trump is, obviously, the defining feature of America in 2019. He’s the burning house at the center of a national crisis. The reason Schultz’s talk of an independent campaign next year has produced such rancor and amusement is, above all, how flaky it is. He’s presenting himself as a firefighter; and he’s standing in front of a burning building, giving speeches in which he promises to fight not this fire, but definitely the next one.
- US expected to announce US suspension of landmark INF arms control treaty (CNN) Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is expected to announce Friday that the US will suspend participation in an arms control treaty with Russia that has been a centerpiece of European security since the Cold War, according to two US officials and multiple diplomatic sources familiar with the matter. President Donald Trump and his senior officials have been signaling for months that they are ready to pull out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which the US and Europe accuses Moscow of violating since 2014.
The suspension raises concerns about a renewed arms race with Moscow and has put European allies on edge.
It starts a 180-day clock to complete withdrawal unless Russia returns to compliance with the 1987 agreement.
- U.S. appeals court takes up net neutrality (Seeking Alpha) A federal appeals court will listen to arguments today over whether the Trump administration acted legally when it repealed landmark net neutrality rules governing internet providers in December 2017.
The panel, which has set aside 2.5 hours to hear the case, includes Judges Robert Wilkins and Patricia Millett, two appointees of Barack Obama, and Stephen Williams, an appointee of Ronald Reagan.
- Here’s how much Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Warren Buffett could pay under Bernie Sanders’ tax plan (CNBC) Under Sanders’ new tax plan announced Thursday, billionaires would be subject to a 77% estate tax, which is the tax levied on the cash, property, real estate and other assets (“everything you own or have certain interests in,” according to the Internal Revenue Service) of a deceased person when it is transferred to another person. In 2018, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act put the estate tax at 40% after the first $11.18 million, according to the Internal Revenue Service.
- US Navy signs mammoth contract with Huntington Ingalls for two aircraft carriers (Defense News) Hat tip to Roger Erickson. The U.S. Navy has signed a $14.9 billion contract with shipbuilder Huntington Ingalls for two Ford-class aircraft carriers, the Navy announced Thursday evening. By buying two carriers simultaneously, the Navy expects to save $4 billion, according to a Navy release. Navy Secretary Richard Spencer hailed the deal as a team effort and said the contract will create stability for the skilled workforce and create savings as a result.
- Republicans want Trump to keep out of border talks (The Hill) Republicans are urging President Trump to step back, for now, from the negotiations to prevent a second partial government shutdown. The president is offering a running, real-time commentary about the conference committee tasked with breaking the months-long stalemate between the White House and congressional Democrats, frustrating lawmakers who worry Trump is complicating already difficult talks. In a tweet on Thursday, Trump warned that Republicans on the panel might be “wasting their time.”
- Tech Firms Pulling Back on Investment (The Daily Shot) Tech firms are pulling back on capital expenditures. In particular, the build-out of data centers appears to be taking a pause (perhaps due to softer demand for cloud services). Monday’s disappointing earnings from NVIDIA provided further evidence for this trend (Nvidia’s Costly Reversal of Fortune). Slowing business investment could become a drag on growth.
- The 2018 Election Turnout Was Huge (FiveThirtyEight) Last year, 23 states had double-digit percentage-point increases in voter turnout compared with their 1982-2014 midterm election average. In Georgia, where a competitive gubernatorial race took place between Democrat Stacey Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp, an estimated 55% of eligible voters exercised their right to vote, which is about 21 points higher than the state’s 1982-2014 average. That was the biggest change from the average of any state.
EU
- Euro zone factory growth dried up in January, outlook gloomy: PMI (Reuters) Growth in euro zone factory activity was minimal in January as new orders fell at the fastest rate in nearly six years, suggesting manufacturers are acting as a drag on the economy, a survey showed on Friday. Some of that scant growth was from factories running down backlogs of orders for a fifth month while having to stockpile finished products at the fastest rate since the survey began in June 1997.
- Euro zone inflation falls, though core rate inches higher (CNBC) The slowdown was in line with the average expectation of economists in a Reuters poll. The decline brings headline inflation well below the ECB’s target rate of below, but close to 2.0%.
UK
- Ministers Think A Permanent Customs Union With The EU Is The Price For Solving The Backstop (BuzzFeed News) Senior ministers are arguing that the controversial Irish backstop issue that stands in the way of a Brexit deal can be solved if the UK commits to a form of permanent customs union with the EU, BuzzFeed News has learned.
Sources across Whitehall are increasingly convinced they will be able to secure a political win by adding either an end date or an exit mechanism to the backstop – the insurance policy to prevent a hard border – that the House of Commons says has to change for a Brexit deal to pass.
Syria
- ISIS has been reduced to 1.5 square miles in Syria. This is its final stand. (CNN) ISIS may be about to lose its last sliver of territory, but it will not disappear with it. The group has transformed, indeed has returned back to what it was before ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi declared his so-called caliphate: a deadly insurgency in Syria and Iraq. And in far flung corners of the globe — Nigeria, Libya, Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, Afghanistan and the Philippines — ISIS’s black banner still flies.
Russia
- Putin: Russia’s new nuclear missile is invincible (CNN) Russia’s new hypersonic missile system, which President Vladimir Putin claims is “invulnerable” to US defenses, will enter service in 2019, the Russian leader said after a test of the missile.
North Korea
- US envoy Stephen Biegun ‘reveals’ North Korea nuclear pledge (BBC News) North Korea has pledged to destroy all its nuclear material enrichment facilities, according to the US special envoy for the country, Stephen Biegun. He said the promise had been made to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo when he visited North Korea in October. However Pyongyang has not confirmed making any such pledge. Mr Biegun also said that North Korea must provide a complete list of its nuclear assets before any deal can be reached.
China
- China hails ‘important progress’ in US trade talks (BBC News) China’s trade delegation says it made “important progress” in the latest round of talks with the US, China’s state media reports. At the end of a two-day meeting in Washington, no deal was reached but China pledged to buy more US soybeans. US President Donald Trump touted the promise as proof that the two sides were making progress. They are pushing to reach a deal by 1 March to avert an escalation in tariffs.
Venezuela
- Venezuela’s Guaido courts Russia; powers divided on Maduro (Reuters) Global jostling intensified on Thursday between countries that want Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in power and those trying to force him to resign, as opposition leader Juan Guaido made overtures to his rival’s allies Russia and China.
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