Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 18 January 2019
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, published Monday, Wednesday and Friday, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
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​Global
- Asia markets struggle for gains despite strong US earnings; China concerns linger (CNBC) Asia Pacific shares traded mixed on Thursday, despite strong quarterly earnings in the U.S. and after the U.K. government won a parliamentary confidence vote. Worries over China likely weighed on market sentiment. The dollar index changed hands higher at 96.144 at 3:06 p.m. HK/SIN. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $51.92 per barrel at 0752 GMT, down $039 (0.8%) from their last settlement. International Brent crude oil futures were down $0.37, or 0.6%, at $60.95 per barrel. Spot gold was steady at $1,292.51 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures dipped 0.1% to $1,292.40 per ounce.
U.S.
- Trump’s shutdown nightmare: A choice between the economy and the wall (CNN) If the government shutdown lasts much longer, President Donald Trump’s only way out may involve a choice between two pillars of his political viability — his border wall and his purring economy. More and more Americans are feeling the effects of the partial shutdown every day, from travelers stuck in security lines to Coast Guard officers now joining the hundreds of thousands of federal employees going without pay.
Yet the normal political pressure points that usually end shutdown standoffs are not working, perhaps because of the unique dynamics of the Trump era. As a result, there’s every chance that the stalemate now in its 27th day could drag on much longer.
- Giuliani: ‘I never said there was no collusion’ between the Trump campaign and Russia (The Hill) President Trump’s personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani, said Wednesday that he “never said there was no collusion” between the Trump campaign and Russia, claiming only that Trump himself was not involved in collusion.
- Trump cancels Davos trip over US-Mexico border wall row (The Business Times) President Donald Trump on Thursday canceled his upcoming trip to the annual international conference at Davos, blaming the ongoing row in Washington over building wall on the border with Mexico. He blamed opposition Democrats’ “intransigence” over his demand for $5.7 billion to extend a border wall with Mexico. As a side-effect of the row, swaths of the US government are temporarily closed, leaving more than 800,000 employees without pay.
- Pelosi pulls State of the Union surprise on Trump (The Hill) Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D, CA) dramatically raised the stakes in the drag-out shutdown fight on Wednesday, asking President Trump to postpone his Jan. 29 State of the Union address unless the government is reopened by week’s end. The surprise step, made in a letter to Trump coated in legislative speak, represented a significant power move by Pelosi, who has just begun her second stint as Speaker.
Pelosi warned that staging the speech amid the partial shutdown – which has affected both the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Secret Service – creates security risks for the host of national policymakers and powerbrokers expected to be in attendance.
- ‘Grifters, weaklings, felons’: Christie on the Trump White House (The Washington Post) The former Republican governor of New Jersey and a one-time transition leader has unloaded on the people surrounding the president in his forthcoming book.
- Top Trump official resigned over White House plan to withhold disaster-relief funds from Puerto Rico: report (The Hill) The deputy secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is resigning Thursday due to disagreements with members of the Trump administration regarding housing policy and the administration’s efforts to intervene in disaster-relief money for Puerto Rico, The Washington Post reported Wednesday. Pam Patenaude notified HUD Secretary Ben Carson of her planned departure last month and was expected to transition out of the role in January.
- People are fleeing from New Jersey more than any other state – here’s the No. 1 reason why (MSN Money) New Jersey became the No. 1 state to move away from in 2018, according to new data from moving and relocation company United Vans Lines. The top reason why residents left was for a professional opportunity, the UVL data shows. Of all the residents who moved out, 46% listed “job” as the deciding factor.
- Jerome Powell is still getting his sea legs (CNBC) David Wessel, The Brookings Institution senior fellow in economic studies, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss how the government shutdown is impacting government data availability and Jerome Powell’s judgement.
- Effort to ease Russian sanctions boosted by former Louisiana senator (CNN) Former Republican Sen. David Vitter is lobbying on behalf of companies linked to a Russian oligarch with ties to President Vladimir Putin, aligning himself with Trump administration efforts to ease sanctions on his clients, according to documents filed with the Justice Department.
Vitter, who has registered as a foreign agent, lobbied with several countries’ ambassadors and the Treasury Department to ease punishing sanctions imposed on major aluminum firms tied to oligarch Oleg Deripaska. After the Treasury Department agreed last month and eased the sanctions, Vitter was spotted in the Senate ahead of critical votes taking aim at the Trump administration move.
- End of an Era (Perfect Storm, Tullet Prebon) Hat tip to Dan Flemming. The Great Financial Crisis really was a generational event, possibly marking the end of growth, according to this comprehensive study.
EU
- Distrust will weigh on efforts to cope with hard Brexit: EU’s Barnier (Reuters) The European Union and Britain can adopt contingency measures to help cope with a disorderly Brexit but they would be implemented in a climate of distrust and this makes it all the more important to reach a deal, the EU’s Brexit negotiator said.
- Eurozone Growth Estimates Keep Slipping (The Daily Shot) The Eurozone’s actual and potential GDP growth forecasts have been downgraded over the years.
UK
- UK government survives confidence vote as May calls for Brexit compromise (CNN) Theresa May has called on Britain’s political parties to “put self-interest aside” and work together on a compromise Brexit deal, hours after her government survived a no-confidence vote Wednesday night. Lawmakers voted 325 to 306 in favor of the government remaining in power, one day after they rejected the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal by 230 votes, in the biggest defeat for any UK government in the modern parliamentary era.
- Riven by crisis, UK searches for Brexit emergency ‘plan B’ (Reuters) Prime Minister Theresa May will try on Thursday to break the impasse in Britain’s political elite over how to leave the European Union by searching for an emergency exit deal, though there is so far little sign of compromise.
- Brexit is a ‘mess’ right now, former WTO chief says (CNBC) Pascal Lamy, who is now president emeritus at the Institute Jacques Delors, discusses the U.K.’s plan to exit the European Union.
Turkey
- Turkey’s Debt Crisis Deepens, Erdogan Bails out Banks His Way (Wolf Street) Turkish President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan has launched a raft of measures ostensibly designed to reanimate the economy, including offering direct financial support for people with credit-card debt. The plan will enable Turkey’s maxed-out consumers to go to the biggest state-run lender, Ziraat Bank, and apply for debt rescheduling at low rates of interest.
Syria
- Killing of 4 Americans in Syria throws spotlight on Trump’s policy (The Washington Post) The four Americans killed in Manbij, Syria on Wednesday – two soldiers, a Defense Department civilian and a military contractor – matched the largest number of deaths from hostile fire in a single incident overseas since Donald Trump became president. The killings, in a suicide explosion claimed by the Islamic State, came less than a month after Trump declared the militants defeated and ordered that the 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria be withdrawn.
Since then, the administration’s strategy has been thrown into confusion, as Trump’s defense secretary resigned in protest. The announced pace of withdrawal has varied, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has sought aid from Arab allies. New conditions have been set for the U.S. departure, even as the president has said he is determined that the troops leave sooner rather than later.
Iran
- Despite US warning, Iran launches satellite and fails (CNN) Iran launched a satellite on Tuesday that failed to reach orbit, after the US warned against the launch earlier this month. The satellite “did not reach enough speed in the third stage and was not put into orbit,” Mohammad Jahromi, the country’s Minister of Communications and Information Technology, told the official IRNA news agency after a ceremony was held for the launch at Imam Khomeini Spaceport early Tuesday. The minister said Iran would launch another satellite soon.
Singapore
- Singapore non-oil exports down 8.5% in December, confounding rebound expectations (The Business Times) Singapore’s exports ended 2018 on a weak note with non-oil domestic exports (NODX) falling for the second straight month in December, dashing economists’ expectations of a 2% rebound, according to Enterprise Singapore figures on Thursday. NODX was down 8.5% year on year in December from a high base a year ago, after a 2.8% decline in November, in the first consecutive fall since February and March, 2018. The contraction came on the back of declines in both electronics and non-electronics exports.
China
- The greatest risk to China’s growth in the near term is rising unemployment around the Lunar New Year, J.P. Morgan’s chief China economist, Haibin Zhu, says in a Monday report.
- Job losses in manufacturing accelerated in mid-2018, after the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, points out Gavekal Dragonomics China Consumer Analyst Ernan Cui.
- However, ManpowerGroup’s first-quarter employment outlook survey indicates the overall labor market may be at least stabilizing.
- The trade secrets case involves a robotics product meant to test smartphone technology owned by T-Mobile, according to The Wall Street Journal.
- An indictment is expected soon.
- The trade secrets case against Huawei comes at a time of heavy tensions between the U.S. and China and the arrest of Huawei’s CFO last month in Canada.
Kenya
- Nineteen people still missing after deadly militant attack in Kenya: Red Cross (Reuters) Nineteen people remain unaccounted for two days after Somali militants attacked a hotel complex in Nairobi and killed at least 21 people, the Red Cross said on Thursday, raising the possibility of a considerably higher death toll.
Canada
- Is Vancouver’s Real Estate Market Crashing? (Vancouver Magazine) Prices are plummeting, taxes are up and the foreign money has run dry. Are the crazy times finished in the city’s real estate market? Realtor Ian Watt, who specializes in downtown condos, says:
“We have to come back down to earth. Real estate in Vancouver is always going to go up a couple percent every year because we have no land and a lot of people moving to the city. But condos went up 93 percent in 36 months, so it’s got to go back down to where a two to three percent gain will make sense. That’s normal growth.”
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