Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 15 January 2019
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, published Monday, Wednesday and Friday, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
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​Global
- Asia markets trade higher as investors wait on crucial Brexit vote (CNBC) Asia Pacific markets mostly traded higher Tuesday despite lingering concerns over an economic slowdown in China, which dampened sentiment at the start of the week after China released trade data. The dollar index weakened by 0.12% to 95.48. Brent crude oil futures were at $59.47 per barrel at 0950 GMT, up $0.48 (0.81%) from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $50.92 per barrel, also up 0.81% ($0.41). Spot gold edged about 0.1% lower to $1,290.80.
U.S.
- It’s Already Collusion (Politico) Whether he knows it or not, Trump is integral to Putin’s strategy to strengthen authoritarian regimes and undermine democracies around the world. This unprecedented aberration defiles what America stands for at home and abroad; it alienates and dispirits our allies; and – if it is allowed to persist – it will jeopardize our security.
- Blame for Government Shutdown (The Daily Shot) Polls show Republicans and the president being blamed for the shutdown.
- Trump’s polls sag amid wall fight (The Hill) President Trump on Monday rejected a proposal from a top legislative ally to reopen the government, even as a raft of polling suggested he is losing the battle for public opinion with Democrats over his demand for a border wall. Trump’s dismissal of the plan to end the partial shutdown offered by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R, SC) signals the White House believes it can pressure Democrats into a compromise. But Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D, CA), buoyed by the polls, has shown no sign of budging. See other articles here.
- 5 numbers that prove the Mueller probe isn’t a ‘big fat hoax’ (CNN) here are numbers that deny the president’s claim that the Mueller investigation is a hoax:
- Federal judge blocks Trump administration birth control rules (NBC News) A federal judge in Pennsylvania on Monday blocked the Trump administration from enforcing new rules allowing employers to obtain exemptions from an Obamacare requirement that they provide health insurance that covers women’s birth control. U.S. District Judge Wendy Beetlestone in Philadelphia issued a nationwide injunction preventing the rules from taking effect, a day after another judge issued a more limited ruling blocking their enforcement in 13 states and the District of Columbia.
The rules would let businesses or nonprofits lodge religious or moral objections to obtain exemptions from the Obamacare mandate that employers provide contraceptive coverage in health insurance with no copayment.
- Americans see themselves in debt forever, even as they continue to borrow (NBC News) A new survey from CreditCards.com finds that more than two in five Americans currently carrying debt don’t know when they’ll pay off those balances – and one in four say they expect their debts to outlive them.
The concerns revealed by respondents to the CreditCards.com survey could be well-founded: Third-quarter data from the American Bankers Association found that delinquencies among credit cards issued by banks rose from 2.93 percent to 3.05 percent. Although the trade group noted that this still is below the pre-recession average of 4.33 percent, there are other signs of stress in Americans’ ability to keep up with their borrowing.
- We already know how this shutdown will end (CNN) Someone has to blink or there will be a compromise. Compromises have seldom ended such stalemates so a blink it is likely to be. The blinker will lose a lot of face and be settling for a psychological disadvantge for the next 2 years and the 2020 election. So this shutdown could indeed go on for a long time.
- More Softening US Economic Numbers (The Daily Shot) Morgan Stanley’s business activity indices have moderated recently. Below are capex spending and hiring activity.
EU
- Eurozone Growth Estimates Keep Slipping (The Daily Shot) The Eurozone’s actual and potential GDP growth forecasts have been downgraded over the years.
UK
- May faces crushing Brexit defeat despite last-minute plea to MPs (The Guardian) Theresa May appears to be on course for a crushing defeat in the House of Commons as Britain’s bitterly divided MPs prepare to give their verdict on her Brexit deal in the “meaningful vote” on Tuesday. With Downing Street all but resigned to losing by a significant margin, Guardian analysis pointed to a majority of more than 200 MPs against the prime minister.
Labour sources said that unless May made major unexpected concessions, any substantial margin against her would lead Jeremy Corbyn to call for a vote of no confidence in the government – perhaps as soon as Tuesday night. But since Conservative MPs are unlikely to offer Corbyn the backing he would need to win a no-confidence vote, he would then come under intense pressure to swing Labour’s weight behind a second referendum.
Germany​
Turkey
- Erdogan says discussed Turkey setting up safe zone in Syria with Trump (Reuters) President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday he had discussed a safe zone which Turkey would set up in Syria, during a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump which he described as positive.
China
- First U.S. crude cargoes head to China since trade breakthrough: sources (Reuters) Three cargoes of U.S. crude are heading to China from the U.S. Gulf Coast, trade sources said on Monday, the first departures since late September and a 90-day pause in the two countries’ trade war that began last month. The shipments mark a change since Chinese buyers largely began avoiding U.S. oil during the trade dispute that flared last summer.
- Xi Jinping is leading China toward economic stagnation (The Economic Times) The ambition of China hawks in the Trump administration is to maintain American dominance by halting China’s economic rise. It’s strange that President Xi Jinping appears to be working toward the same end. The risk for any economy approaching China’s level of development is that it gets ensnared in the middle-income trap. Once the low-hanging fruit of urbanization and industrialization have been plucked, countries tend to get stuck in second gear.
- China’s portfolio flows are back in positive territory (The Daily Shot)
Australia
- Recent Australian apartment buyers are drowning in negative equity (MacroBusiness) Around 15-20% of relatively recent buyers of inner-city Sydney apartments, as well as cottages in badly performing suburbs have lost their deposit and owe more to the bank than the property is worth. In Melbourne the situation is not much better. The most dangerous situation is what is happening among the Chinese owners and apartment developers. But there are also widespread negative equity situations in Australian superannuation (some of which involved fraud) and among the vast number of Australians who believed “bricks and mortar” could be leveraged without risk. Many were encouraged by banks who, until recently had easy credit property policies.
Hondouras
- Hundreds of Hondurans set off toward United States in new caravan (Reuters) Hundreds of Honduran migrants began the long trek north on Monday, part of new U.S.-bound caravan that hopes to succeed even as a previous wave of Central Americans were unable to quickly enter the United States.
Canada
- Canada plans its first geothermal power plant (CNBC) The Canadian government announced it will provide $25.6 million Canadian dollars ($19.28 million) in funding for the country’s first geothermal power facility. In an announcement at the end of last week, the office of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that the five megawatt (MW) project, spearheaded by the Deep Earth Energy Production Corporation, would generate enough energy to power around 5,000 homes. The facility is located near Estevan, in the province of Saskatchewan, and will create 100 jobs during its construction phase. In a statement, Trudeau said the project had “the potential to transform how the province and the country produces energy, while creating good, middle class jobs for Canadians.”
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