Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 08 January 2019
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, published Monday, Wednesday and Friday, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
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​Global
- Asian stocks mixed as US-China trade talks continue (CNBC) Stocks in Asia were mixed on Tuesday as investors waited for developments from the second day of U.S.-China trade talks. The U.S. dollar index was down at 95.887 but higher than an earlier low of 95.682. Brent crude futures were at $57.77 per barrel at 0113 GMT, up $0.44 (0.8%) from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $48.85 per barrel, $0.33, or 0.7%. Spot gold was down 0.5% at $1,282.70, as of 0516 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were 0.5% lower at $1,283.50 per ounce.
- A New Cold War Has Begun (Foreign Policy) The United States and China will be locked in a contest for decades. But Washington can win if it stays more patient than Beijing.
The constant, interminable Chinese computer hacks of American warships’ maintenance records, Pentagon personnel records, and so forth constitute war by other means.
- Global Mega Cities (The Guardian) By 2035 there will be 48 cities in the world with population greater than 10 million.
U.S.
- Tigers crush Tide to reclaim throne, win 2019 national championship (CBS News) When Clemson beat Notre Dame by 27 points in the semifinal, pundits were saying Notre Dame didn’t belong in the top 4. Now that Clemson has beaten Alabama by 28 will the same thing be said about the Crimson Tide? With the 44-16 win the Tigers became the first team in modern college football history to finish a season 15-0 and the first overall to do so since Penn in 1897. No. 1 seeds, meanwhile, fell to 3-5 in CFP games and a resounding 0-for in the national championship. Below is one of the plays that propelled Clemson, freshman Justyn Ross, an Alabama resident, makes a spectacular one-handed catch of a ball thrown behind him.
- Mike Pence: Trump undecided on declaring national emergency over border wall demand (The Guardian) Vice-president Mike Pence said Donald Trump has yet to decide whether he will declare a national emergency over his demand for a wall along the southwest border – the key sticking point in negotiations over the partial government shutdown that has affected 800,000 federal employees. White House counsel is reviewing whether the president has the ability to declare a national emergency in the current situation, Pence told reporters at a media briefing on Monday. He added that the administration would prefer to secure the funding for border security from an agreement with Congress.
- Trump to address nation on wall (The Hill) will give a prime-time address Tuesday from the Oval Office to make his case for closing parts of the government over his demand for $5.7 billion in funding for a wall on the Mexican border. The president also plans to travel to the border on Thursday, a bellicose move reflecting the entrenched positions on both sides of the debate and one that almost certainly means the 18-day shutdown will continue into the weekend. See also Democrats demand air time to counter Trump’s border speech and Dem senator pitches wall funding in exchange for immigration vote.
- More U.S. regions see job openings outnumbering jobless (Reuters) Job openings are outnumbering unemployed workers across increasingly wide swaths of the United States, forcing businesses to rethink how they find workers, which could keep pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates despite a global economic slowdown.
- New Data Suggests Shocking Shale Slowdown (Zero Hedge) See also At $50 WTI Extra Shale Oil Production Will Be Zero. U.S. shale executives often boast of low breakeven prices, reassuring investors of their ability to operate at a high level even when oil prices fall. But new data suggests that the industry slowed dramatically in the fourth quarter of 2018 in response to the plunge in oil prices.
- U.S. Labor Shortages Have Been Building Up (The Daily Shot) Despite a slowdown in residential construction, labor shortages persist after increasing for years.
UK
- NHS chiefs tell Theresa May it is time to curb privatisation (The Guardian) NHS leaders want Theresa May to scrap Conservative legislation that forces the tendering of contracts for care, in a move which could dramatically reduce privatisation of key health services. In the latest long-term plan, which maps out the NHS’s future over the next 10 years, Simon Stevens, the chief executive of NHS England, demands that the prime minister repeals significant key sections of the Health and Social Care Act 2012. Downing Street has endorsed the plan.
Germany​
- German Unemployment Falls (The Daily Shot) The number of unemployed Germans hit another multi-year low.
Iraq
- Baghdad at 10 million: fragile dreams of normality as megacity status beckons (The Guardian) Baghdad is a”profoiundly damaged place” but as it passes 10 million people this year it will enter into the mega city class.
India
- India’s Railway System Announced 63,000 Job Openings… 19 Million People Applied (Zero Hedge) In February, the railway system in India announced that it was recruiting for some of the most basic and menial positions in its organizational hierarchy. It was looking for positions like helper, cleaner, track maintainer and rail switchman. It announced 63,000 vacant jobs it was trying to fill. It got 19 million applicants.
Those applicants included people like Anil Gujjar, who traveled to India’s capital in search of a job. Gujjar was the first person in his family to attend college, but wound up having to compete with millions of other men like him, almost all of which were college students or graduates. Some even had postgraduate degrees.
The flock to these jobs indicates a bigger problem in India: the country has a fast growing economy, but isn’t generating enough jobs for its educated young populace.
Bangladesh
- The World Should Be Watching Bangladesh’s Election Debacle (Foreign Policy) The ruling party is making a mockery of the electoral process, pandering to Islamic extremists, and turning the country into an authoritarian state:
On Dec. 30, 2018, Bangladesh held its 11th national election since becoming independent in 1971. The questionable results ended in a sweeping victory for the ruling Awami League party of Sheikh Hasina. The party’s coalition secured 288 out of a possible 300 seats in Parliament, ostensibly winning more than 90 percent of the popular vote. The coalition of the principal opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, won a mere seven seats. The results ensured a third term in office for the Awami League. However, almost immediately after the results were announced, a host of foreign and domestic analysts pointed out that the election was far from free or fair. Their misgivings were warranted. At least 17 people were killed in election-related violence, many others were injured, and there were widespread allegations of voter intimidation.
China
- Is Taiwan Indicating Deeper Manufacturing Slowdown for China? (The Daily Shot) Does the slowdown in Taiwan’s factory activity point to further weakness in China’s manufacturing?
- China’s economic growth is likely currently below the 6 percent level amid faltering domestic demand, says Taimur Baig, chief economist at DBS Group Research.
- Despite negotiations between China and the U.S. underway in Beijing, Baig says it’s unlikely the trade war will end in the next three to six months.
- China, Europe, and the Great Divergence: A Study in Historical National Accounting, 980 – 1850 (The Journal of Economic History) There is a nice summary tweet by Branko Milanovic:
Mexico
- Tight Money in Mexico (The Daily Shot) Mexico’s real monetary policy rate is at the highest level in over a decade, which is creating a drag on growth.
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