Written by rjs, MarketWatch 666
Here are some more selected news articles about the oil and gas industry from the week ended 06 January 2019. Go here for Part 1.
This is a feature at Global Economic Intersection every Monday evening.
Please share this article – Go to very top of page, right hand side, for social media buttons.
Campaigners win a victory over fracking fiasco – – Anti-frackers were declaring a victory this week as Cuadrilla removed key equipment from its Preston New Road (PNR) site in Lancashire. Five fracking pumps, alongside other key fracking equipment was seen leaving the site near Blackpool on Tuesday of this week. Frack Free Lancashire called on the company to “remove the rest of their equipment and leave once and for all”. Although the company has promised to be back in 2019, it rounds off a year of problems for Cuadrilla. PNR was supposed to be the site of the first high volume frack in Britain since fracking caused earthquakes in 2011. But the area has been plagued by earth tremors since fracking began on 15 October – causing operations to be halted repeatedly. The largest measured 1.5ML (local magnitude) – the same strength as one of the earthquakes that stopped fracking in Preece Hall seven years ago, also carried out by Cuadrilla. Despite the company boasting of an “amazing year”, its share price has tumbled, and campaigners say financial difficulties may be the reason behind withdrawing equipment. Frack Free Lancashire said that it believes “this removal of equipment may be indicative of potential resourcing issues as investors turn their backs on the fracking industry in general, following a series of bad news stories over the last few weeks”.
Oil in Milford Haven estuary ‘from pipe leak’ contained – The source of a leak which led to an unknown amount of “thick, heavy oil” spilling into a Pembrokeshire estuary has been contained, officials said. It happened at a jetty on the Milford Haven waterway – by the Valero refinery – at about midnight on Wednesday. It is understood the leak came from pipework and booms have been placed in the water to stop the oil spreading. But Milford Haven harbourmaster Mike Ryan said a small amount had reached shore. Valero has apologised. The company said an operation was under way to respond to the spill and it had “activated its contingency response plans”. Pembrokeshire council said it was hoped the oil would be collected “over the next day or two” and Cristoffer Tomos, the authority’s cabinet member for environment, said the leak was understood to have come from pipework. The Valero jetty, where the spill took place, is on the south side of the Milford Haven estuary Shipping was halted while the spill was evaluated, but the route has since reopened. The spillage was initially reported by Valero which told the Port of Milford Haven a “petroleum product” had been released. Harbourmaster Mr Ryan said the source had been contained and he was expecting an update from Valero on Friday about how much oil went into the water. “There is oil coming ashore and I suspect that will continue for the next few days,” he said. “We’ve had reports later on this afternoon of oil globules of smaller sizes coming ashore at Dale and we’re working to put plans in place to recover them tomorrow morning.” He added: “We’ll see oil emerge in various places and we are primed and ready with our multi-agency colleagues to tackle that situation as and when it arises.” Andrea Winterton, from Natural Resources Wales, said: “Our officers have been working with Milford Haven Port Authority, and other organisations, taking action to reduce the impact of an oil spill in the waterway.” She added beach surveys were being carried out and booms were being used to protect the salt marshes around Sandy Haven and the Gann estuary. The public – particularly dog owners – has been urged to watch out for pollution on the coastline.
Milford Haven oil spill estimated at ‘up to 10,000 litres’ – BBC News – A “heavy” oil spill which prompted a major clean-up operation could be as much as 10,000 litres, port chiefs have said. The Valero Jetty in Pembrokeshire, was closed off after the leak on Thursday. Officials said the vast majority of the spill was contained – although more tests are under way. Andrea Winterton, of Natural Resources Wales (NRW), said it was difficult to predict what the environmental impacts will be. “We’re not sure where or when any further oil will come ashore… but we’ll keep monitoring all the beaches and working with our partners to ensure where it does come ashore, we clean it up appropriately,” she said. “The oil has stopped, the leak has stopped… until there’s more that comes ashore, it’s very difficult to say what’s happened to it and what the environmental impacts are going to be.” The spillage was initially reported by the Valero refinery, with the firm now estimating that 7,500 to 10,000 litres (1,650 to 2,200 gallons) of “heavy fuel oil” leaked overnight between 2 and 3 January. As a comparison, the average household bath holds 80 litres of water. It is understood the leak came from pipework. Habourmaster Mike Ryan said a “well-rehearsed” clean-up operation involved Natural Resources Wales, Pembrokeshire County Council, Maritime Coastguard Agency as well as Valero. Floating devices called “booms” were used to contain most of the spillage and a drone has been used to see where the oil has spread. Officials said oil has been seen on the shore at Dale and Musselwick Bay. In the meantime, the boom devices will stay put until NRW is “confident the risk” to wildlife and sensitive salt marshes has passed. The agency added a full investigation was under way.
Clean-up work continues after haven waterway oil spill – Multiple agencies continue to carry out work to survey, clean-up and put in place measures to protect the environment and wildlife after an oil pollution incident in the Milford Haven waterway. Mike Ryan, Harbourmaster at the Port of Milford Haven, said: “A multi-agency response is continuing at the Port of Milford Haven following an oil pollution incident at the Valero Pembroke Refinery. “Valero have today estimated that approximately 7.5-10m of heavy fuel oil had leaked overnight on 2/3rd January from a pipe connecting the jetty to the refinery but that by first light the leak had been contained. “As soon as the incident was reported, just after midnight, we instigated our well-rehearsed oil pollution plan in which we (Milford Haven Port Authority) have delegated command for the on-water clean-up of oil. Multiple agencies including Natural Resources Wales, Pembrokeshire County Council, Maritime Coastguard Agency and Valero have been working with us since early hours on 3rd January to survey, clean-up and put in place measures to protect the environment and wildlife. “The MCA are supporting the incident response through the loan of equipment to supplement our own assets. The MCA are using their contracted surveillance and verification aircraft and the images provided by this equipment have assisted the teams to locate any surface oil, its direction of travel and dispersal. “The Port’s pollution vessel ‘Sea Sweep’ has patrolled and collected some surface oil; however most of the oil has naturally dispersed and the MCA report from this morning’s flight has confirmed this. “Booming is in place at Sandy Haven and teams are deploying booms around the Gann estuary near Dale, today. “Currently there have been sightings of oil on shore at Dale and Musselwick Bay. A clean-up operation is underway and agencies will continue to monitor the surrounding shoreline over the coming days.”
Pollution fears rise around Svalbard – A particularly sensitive area of Svalbard was under threat of oil pollution this week, after a trawler grounded in bad weather in a remote northern area of the Norwegian-administered island group in the Arctic. On board the trawler are 300,000 liters of diesel oil that may start to leak. “One drop of diesel that makes a mark just the size of a coin is enough to kill a sea bird,” Sigurd Enge of the environmental group Bellona told Norwegian Broadcasting (NRK) on Monday. “Diesel oil destroys the layers of fat that protect the birds.” The Norwegian trawler Northguider, based in Storebo at Austvoll, south of Bergen, was out shrimping when it grounded at Hinlopenrenna on Svalbard’s far north side just before the weekend. All 14 people on board were eventually rescued and taken on board a search and rescue helicopter that brought them safely to Longyearbyen, Svalbard’s main settlement on the island of Spitsbergen. The vessel, however, remained grounded on Monday with concerns rising that its fuel could spill into the Arctic waters that are home to both seafood and birds. “Whatever spills into the sea stays in the sea,” Enge told NRK. “Nor is it possible to carry out any oil spill prevention in the area. There’s no equipment to mop up oil in a sensible manner under the conditions there. As soon as the oil enters the sea, the damage is done.” Enge also worries that the oil can freeze into the ice in the area. “It can keep lying there until the spring, and then we’ll have more pollution when the ice melts and wildlife returns,” he said. “This is an area that has a lot of seabirds in the spring and summer,” Morten Wedege of the local governing office (Sysselmannen pa Svalbard). “It’s a resting place for walrus. There’s a lot of other marine life here, like seals and whales. It’s wildlife that’s especially vulnerable to oil and pollution.” The Coast Guard’s largest vessel, named Svalbard, left its home port at Sortland Sunday, bound for the site of the grounding where its crew will attempt to board the Northguider and assess its damage. Nearly round-the-clock darkness at this time of year will make the work difficult, but the crew will also attempt to empty the trawler’s diesel tanks. If the vessel remains afloat, attempts would also be made to pull it off the rocks where it grounded and tow it south.
Natural Gas Market Braces for Slump — European natural gas prices look set to fall for the first time in four years in 2019 as buyers keep a close eye on flows from Russia that reached a record last year. With a healthy amount of fuel in storage after a mild start to this winter, the outlook is bearish. That’s being exacerbated by an expected increase in imports, which would help offset declining production in the region. While Russia intends to maintain its grip on about 40 percent of the European market, fluctuations in that dependency will be closely monitored. “The question is how much gas Russia ends up delivering into the European markets — that will be a key determinant,” “Russia expressed publicly it wants to keep deliveries. That could generate a real collapse in prices in the summer months, when we will see a big LNG supply.” The Dutch next-month gas contract is expected to end 2019 at 22 euros a megawatt-hour ($7.35 a million British thermal units), according to the median of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That’s a bit below the average of 22.28 euros during 2018 and well below the peak for the year of more than 29 euros. Kremlin-backed energy giant Gazprom PJSC reported a record 201 billion cubic meters of natural gas exports to Europe in 2018 and plans to maintain those volumes into 2020. Exports were up 2 percent in the year through Dec. 15.There’s questions whether Russia will be able to follow through on that ambition later in the year when a flood of liquefied natural gas is set to enter European markets. Europe’s LNG imports are expected to increase by 14 percent to 56 billion cubic meters, according to Morgan Stanley, after achieving records over the past month. Russia could follow the initial plan focusing on its market share, or it could decide to protect prices, putting the brakes on exports. “A huge wave of LNG in Europe is pushing the natural gas market,” . “The willingness of the U.S. to sign deals that are not destination-defined are also reframing the market.”
The Mediterranean Pipeline Wars Are Heating Up – Things have been quite active in the Eastern Mediterranean lately, with Israel, Cyprus and Greece pushing forward for the realization of the EastMed pipeline, a new gas conduit destined to diversify Europe’s natural gas sources and find a long-term reliable market outlet for all the recent Mediterranean gas discoveries. The three sides have reached an agreement in late November (roughly a year after signing the MoU) to lay the pipeline, the estimated cost of which hovers around $7 billion (roughly the same as rival TurkStream’s construction cost). Yet behind the brave facade, it is still very early to talk about EastMed as a viable and profitable project as it faces an uphill battle with traditionally difficult Levantine geopolitics, as well as field geology. The EastMed gas pipeline is expected to start some 170 kilometers off the southern coast of Cyprus and reach Otranto on the Puglian coast of Italy via the island of Crete and the Greek mainland. Since most of its subsea section is projected to be laid at depths of 3-3.5 kilometer, in case it is built it would become the deepest subsea gas pipeline, most probably the longest, too, with an estimated length of 1900km. The countries involved proceed from the premise that the pipeline’s throughput capacity would be 20 BCM per year (706 BCf), although previous estimates were within the 12-16 BCm per year interval. The idea of EastMed was first flaunted around 2009-2010 as the first more or less substantial gas discovery in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Tamar gas field in Israel’s offshore zone, paved the way for speculations about an impending gas boom. Then came the 535 BCm (18.9 TCf) Leviathan in 2010 and the 850 BCm (30 TCf) Zohr discovery in offshore Egypt five years later and suddenly it seemed that an Eastern Mediterranean gas expansion is inevitable. Yet over the years, the operators of Leviathan have already allocated part of their total gas volumes to domestic power generating companies and most notably NEPCO, the Jordanian electric power company (1.6-2BCm per year). Egypt has been concentrating on meeting domestic needs and getting rid of LNG imports, moreover once it bounces back to gas exporter status in 2019, it will only use its own 2 LNG terminals in Damietta and Idku. Thus, a pertinent question arises – whose gas would be used to fill the EastMed pipeline? If the pipeline starts in offshore Cyprus, then it would be logical to expect that Cyprus’ gas bounty would be somehow utilized. Yet Cyprus has been lagging behind Egypt and Israel in its offshore endeavors and so far lacks a clear-cut giant field to base its supply future on.
The Battle To Control Russia’s Pipelines – Rosneft is, as usual, involved in these developments, while Transneft is on the other side of the court. Both are under the control of the Russian government – albeit to a different extent (the Russian state owns 78.55 percent of Transneft and 50 percent + 1 share of Rosneft). Both are controlled by people quite close to the Russian President Vladimir Putin, therefore, at least in principle, should count as equidistant to political decision-making authorities. Yet the similarities pretty much end there – Transneft’s actions are controlled and dictated by the Anti-Monopoly Service, whilst Rosneft can act freely, be it in cases of investing in a new endeavor or crashing the Russian ruble with one of its currency machinations. Controlling 46 of Russian crude production (as of December 2018), Rosneft is by far the most newsworthy Russian company, to put it mildly. The first official shot in the Rosneft-Transneft standoff was fired in early 2017 when Rosneft and its newly acquired subsidiary Bashneft filed a claim against Transneft for process losses during pipeline transportation. In it, Rosneft stated that up to 0.7 million tons of crude were illegally misappropriated by Transneft – although other producers were roughly on equal footing and lost 0.13-0.15 percent of the crude transported, no one apart from Rosneft took the issue to court. The second point of contention emerged shortly thereafter when Transneft started to complain about deliberately low pipeline transportation tariffs (which supposedly were set by the Russian authorities with substantial backing, or lobbying you might say, from Rosneft) – instead of the 692 RUB per ton suggested by Transneft, the 2017 tariff was set by the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service (FAMS) at 399 RUB per ton. The latest confrontation took place just two to three weeks ago when Transneft signaled that it would seek damages from Rosneft due to the latter’s non-performance on using the new 8mtpa pipeline to its Komsomolsk Refinery in Russia’s Far East. The transportation company calculated that maintaining the pipeline in an idle condition from April 2018 to the current day cost it 1.5 billion rubles (roughly 25 million USD). Moreover, Transneft built the pipeline in a hurry and now its final ownership structure as well as its tariff regulation is still not settled. Rosneft stated that if it is to take part in the financing of the pipeline, it would want to take respective ownership of the pipeline.
Oil Tanker Firms Scrap Most Ships In Three Decades – Companies around the world have scrapped a record number of large crude tankers in 2018. About 100 vessels of the industry’s main crude carriers have been sent to India and Bangladesh for demolition, according to data from Clarkson Research Services Ltd., the statistical and research service arm of the world’s largest shipbroker. Bloomberg said the shipping bust is no surprise, as of September the vessels, which transport 40% of the world’s crude, were on course for the worst charter rates in three decades. In an August report, Bloomberg specified the implosion of charter rates was due to a two-year reduction of OPEC cargoes and environmental regulations. As we have said before, the global growth slowdown has certainly not helped. Morgan Stanley estimates the global fleet of large crude carriers could lack 100 million barrels of transportation capacity in the first half of 2020.“It prolongs the period of profitability after the turnaround,” said Fotis Giannakoulis, a New York-based shipping analyst at the bank.”The more you scrap, the more you bring the recovery forward and accelerate its speed. The market will strengthen with high scrapping even with smallest growth in demand.”In other words, today’s scrapping of vessels is seen as a deleveraging period to clear excess and rebalance the industry.
Butchulla Indigenous community condemns fracking on native land in Wide Bay-Burnett An Indigenous group has unanimously signed a declaration calling for fracking to be banned in the Wide Bay-Burnett region of south-east Queensland. It comes as three oil and exploration licences for the region, held by Blue Energy, expire at the end of this year and in March 2019. The Butchulla people, who are in the process of resolving the second part of their Native Title claim over Fraser Island, have called on the State Government to not renew the exploration company’s permits. Native Title Applicant Gemma Cronin is worried about the possibility of fracking for coal seam gas or shale in the future. “You’d imagine we’d lose enormous amounts of country if something like that happened,” Ms Cronin said. “Yes, there’s gas here, yes there’s maybe shale oil too, but it’s also a seismic place and it’s also a beautiful piece of Australia.” Exploration company Blue Energy holds exploration licences for more than 2,900 square kilometres in the region, but cannot confirm if it is seeking to renew them. Managing Director John Phillips said the company was in discussion with the Government. “It will be a matter of public record shortly after the expiry date,” Mr Phillips said.
Four years after oil spill, Southern Israeli nature reserve remains in Peril – Evrona Nature Reserve, the site of an oil leak followed by a waste pool spill, is still closed to public. On Dec. 4, 2014, a pipeline that carries oil between Eilat on the Gulf of Aqaba and Ashkelon on the Mediterranean Sea burst. Five million liters – about 1.3 million gallons – gushed from the buried pipe, bubbled up to the surface and crossed Highway 90 like a black river at high flood. The oil then snaked in hundreds of rivulets across the Evrona Nature Reserve, slowly flowing downhill through the dry wadis and streambeds into the very heart of the preserve. Photographs taken from drones and helicopters showed dark capillaries on yellow sand. And at the center of it all were the acacia trees, the keystone species giving life to everything else in this unfriendly terrain. What gives life are the rare floods, which allow groundwater to collect, a drop here and there between grains of sand, just a few meters below the surface. The groundwater collects at the center of the preserve, which is where the acacia trees grow. “Which is exactly where the oil flowed,”
U.S. Shale Challenges OPEC’s Oil Dominance In Asia – The explosive growth of U.S. shale production has capped gains of international and U.S. oil prices, offsetting OPEC’s production cuts in the first half of the year and contributing to an emerging oil glut in the latter half in 2018. OPEC has now forged a new pact with its Russia-led non-OPEC allies to contain the oil price decline to $50 a barrel Brent – a price that is not enough to balance any budget of a Middle Eastern oil producer. But the consequences of rising U.S. light oil production from the shale fields have also rippled through international oil flows and trade, making OPEC’s heavyweights such as Saudi Arabia fight for keeping market share in their most prized market and the world’s fastest-growing oil consumption region, Asia. Thanks to the booming shale production, U.S. light oil exports have increased, taking market shares out of the lighter grades that Saudi Arabia and its fellow OPEC members are exporting to Asia. Moreover, increased crude oil production in the U.S. has also resulted in higher oil product exports which, combined with higher Chinese refined product exports, have created an oversupply of products in Asia, crashing refining margins earlier in December.U.S. crude oil production has been breaking records in recent months, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Total U.S. petroleum exports have also been setting records over the past year, EIA data shows.U.S. light crude oil exports to Asia have also grown and even with China shunning American crude, U.S. sales to OPEC’s key market Asia have held relatively steady since August this year, according to data from Kpler compiled by Bloomberg.As OPEC is getting ready for another round of production cuts beginning January, Saudi Arabia for example is hell-bent on keeping its market share in Asia and has recently slashed the January prices of all its grades going to Asia, while it raised the prices for all grades bound for the U.S., Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean. Saudi Aramco’s deepest cuts in Asian pricing were for the Super Light and Extra Light grades, slashed by US$2 and $1.50 a barrel from December’s prices, respectively. The official selling prices (OSPs) of Arab Light, Medium, and Heavy were also cut, by between $0.40 and $1.00 a barrel. The deepest cuts in the lighter grades reflect Saudi Arabia’s effort to keep its market share in Asia as competition from U.S. light oil intensifies, according to analysts.
The New Oil Order – In the decades preceding the arrival of U.S. shale oil, the oil market had only one stabilizing force, namely OPEC. The reason the oil market was structured as such was due to the nature of conventional oil production, most non-OPEC oil production prior to U.S. shale oil fell in one of two categories: major offshore projects that took 5 to 7 years to build (North Sea, Gulf of Mexico … etc.) or mature conventional onshore fields (U.S. conventional fields, Russian Siberian fields … etc.); both of these conventional oil supply sources were either non-responsive, or only slowly reactive, to changes in the oil price, major offshore oil projects tended to come online regardless of the oil price environment, while conventional onshore oil production with shallow decline rates (sub-10 percent) meant that even a slowdown in drilling would not impact total production in any meaningful way for an extended period of time.The aforementioned state of affairs meant that it was up to OPEC to adjust production to balance the market in case of abrupt supply or demand changes, OPEC had (and still has) the flexibility to withdraw millions of barrels from the market within a month or two if such a need arose (OPEC withdrawing 4m barrels from the market following the financial crisis in 2008/2009 is a case in point). The arrival of U.S. shale oil in size to the scene in 2014 has upended the OPEC/non-OPEC balancing act, by introducing a medium-term oil supply balancing mechanism that in the long run will prove supportive to the oil market, and especially so to non-shale oil producers. Non-OPEC production trends following the oil crash in 2014 are instrumental in demonstrating the points discussed in the introduction. Following the oil crash of late 2014, U.S. crude production (lower 48 ex-GOM) declined by one million barrels (EIA data) between December 2014 and December 2016: Shale oil which represented 70 percent of U.S. crude production on December 2014 (5.23M barrels) declined by 690K barrels, representing a 13 percent decline during that same time frame. U.S. shale oil production declined by 5.2 percent in the first year to 4.97M barrels (December 2015), and then declined by an additional 8.6 percent in the following year to 4.54M (December 2016).
Oil prices set for first yearly drop since 2015 – Oil prices gave up early gains on the final day of the year, despite a rising stock market, and were on track for their first annual decline in three years as concerns of a persistent supply glut lingered. Hints of progress on a possible U.S.-China trade deal, with U.S. President Donald Trump saying he had a “very good call” with Chinese President Xi Jinping, helped bolster market sentiment.Brent crude futures was up 13 cents at $53.34 a barrel around 12:22 p.m. ET, on pace for a 20 percent decline in 2018.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $45.29 a barrel, down 4 cents. WTI has fallen about 25 percent this year.Both contracts are down more than a third this quarter, the steepest decline since the fourth quarter of 2014.For most of 2018, oil prices were on the rise, driven up by healthy demand and supply concerns, especially around the impact of renewed U.S. sanctions against major producer Iran, which were introduced in early November.Brent crude, seen as a global benchmark for oil prices, rose by almost a third between January and October, to a high of $86.74 per barrel.That was the highest level since late 2014, the start of a deep market slump amid bulging global oversupply, and many leading analysts and traders at the time said they expected crude to hit $100 per barrel again by the end of 2018. Instead, Brent prices have wiped out all of 2018’s gains, plunging by almost 40 percent from the year’s high, in what has been one of the steepest oil market sell-offs of the past decades.
Oil prices are set for their worst year since 2015 – here’s what went wrong —In a year when Wall Street predicted oil would surpass $100 for the first time in four years, the oil market instead experienced its worst annual loss since 2015.The oil market’s sudden about-face in the fourth quarter has ended a 21/2-year recovery for oil prices following the 2014-2016 downturn. Analysts expect oil prices to rebound next year, but the geopolitical risks that have weighed on the market throughout 2018 will remain a big variable in the new year.U.S. crude settled on Monday at $45.41 a barrel, ending the year down nearly 25 percent. At around $54 a barrel, international benchmark Brent crude is down almost 20 percent in 2018. The declines mark the first annual loss and the biggest yearly drop since 2015, when both contracts fell more than 30 percent. Just three months ago, oil was trading at nearly four-year highs. While many analysts said the rally was unwarranted and warned a pullback was in the cards, few predicted the market would sell off so sharply. From peak to trough, U.S. crude has shed nearly half its value. With the benefit of hindsight, it’s fairly easy to explain oil’s plunge into a bear market. In May, the Trump administration restored sanctions on Iran, OPEC’s third-biggest producer, raising concerns about a supply squeeze in the oil market. The following month, OPEC and a group of producers led by Russia abandoned their 2016 agreement to restrict supply. At the urging of Trump and oil customers, Saudi Arabia in particular turned on the taps, adding about 1 million barrels per day to the market between June and November.But by October, forecasters were warning that demand for oil would grow more slowly than previously anticipated. The same month, the stock market plunged, hammered by a sell-off in high-flying technology names, the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute and rising interest rates.Investors began dumping risk assets, and by the end of the month, oil had plunged about $11 a barrel from its Oct. 3 high. Momentum trading and the rotation out of slumping crude futures and into rising natural gas contracts also deepened losses for oil, analysts say.Making matters worse, when the sanctions officially snapped back into place on Iran on Nov. 5, PresidentDonald Trump surprised the market by granting generous exemptions to the Islamic Republic’s biggest customers. That meant Saudi Arabia, Russia and several other producers had been hiking output into a market where demand growth was moderating and fewer Iranian barrels than expected were lost.At year-end, the U.S.-China trade dispute remains unresolved, and the market remains concerned that a full-blown trade war between the world’s two biggest economies will dent fuel demand. Meanwhile, American crude output is growing more quickly than expected, with the United States topping Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world’s biggest producer in the second half of 2018.
Oil Prices Rally On US-China Trade Deal Hopes – Oil prices rose sharply on Monday as soothing comments from both the US and Chinese presidents praising progress in trade talks helped spur hopes for a resolution to the US-China trade conflict. Brent crude futures rose nearly 2% to USD54.26 a barrel, but remained on track to post their first yearly drop in three years on concerns over supply glut. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at USD46.08 a barrel, up 75 cents or 1.68% from their previous close. Brent crude prices fell almost 19% in 2018 while WTI prices dropped about 24%. Investors are pinning hopes for progress in trade talks between China and the US after US President Donald Trump on Saturday said that he had a “long and very good call” with Chinese President Xi Jinping and that a comprehensive trade deal between the US and China is moving along very well, raising hopes for a breakthrough in the trade dispute. Chinese state media also cited President Xi Jinping as saying that he believed both sides wanted “stable progress.” Traders expect the downward pressure on oil prices to taper off gradually as an agreement to cut oil production reached between OPEC and its allies takes effect this week.
Oil falls as traders gear up for volatile 2019 – Oil prices fell on Wednesday, under pressure from rising output in major OPEC and non-OPEC producers and due to concerns about an economic slowdown that could weaken demand.Russian production hit a post-Soviet record in 2018, figures showed on Wednesday. Other data showed U.S. output reached a record in October and Iraq boosted oil exports in December.Brent crude fell 74 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $53.06 a barrel at 8:16 a.m. ET (1316 GMT). U.S. crude slipped 71 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $44.70.”The omens are far from encouraging,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM, citing rising non-OPEC supply and the likelihood of further increases in oil inventories. “The current bearish bias will therefore continue in the near term and it stands to reason that oil will struggle to break out from its current trough,” he said.U.S. President Donald Trump celebrated the low prices. “Do you think it’s just luck that gas prices are so low, and falling? Low gas prices are like another Tax Cut!” he wrote on his official Twitter account on Tuesday. Adding to concern about economic slowdown, a series of purchasing managers’ indexes for December mostly showed declines or slowdowns in manufacturing activity across Asia – the main growth region for oil demand.
JP Morgan: If OPEC doesn’t maintain its cuts, oil could stay lower for longer – If the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) does not follow through with its commitment to reduce oil production throughout this year, Brent crude prices could struggle to rise, according to J.P. Morgan’s head of Asia Pacific oil and gas. In an early December meeting, OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed to take about 1.2 million barrels a day off the oil market – initially for six months – starting January, amid a persistent imbalance between global oil supply and demand. “Well, J.P. Morgan said prior to the OPEC meeting early December, that if OPEC didn’t really cut by more than around 1.2 million barrels per day, and they did just for the first half, (not) for the full year, that we could gravitate toward … our low-oil-price scenario, which is $55 Brent for 2019,” Scott Darling told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday. On Wednesday afternoon during Asian hours, Brent traded down around 1 percent at $53.28.
Oil Inexplicably Soars Over $2 In Minutes Amid Chinese Fears Over Rout Contagion – Starting just before 10am ET, oil staged a remarkable surge, rising from sessions lows of $44.50 to $46.50 in the matter of minute, a remarkable levitation which helped trim the overall market’s losses by more than half which pushing Treasury yields modestly higher. While there was no immediate catalyst for this stunning price spike – some have cited falling Saudi exports which dropped half a million barrels to 7.25mmb/d thanks to lower flows to the U.S. and China, but that makes little sense as i) that was already priced in as part of the latest oil output cuts, and ii) the US is only importing less as a result of its own record production – overnight news which flew under the radar may have something to do with the surge in oil.Readers will recall that last week, the shares of Asia’s largest petroleum refiner Sinopec plunged following reports that two senior officials at Unipec, the trading subsidiary of Sinopec, had been dismissed by their Communist Party overseers following major losses on soured bets related to oil prices. While Sinopec confirmed the suspensions saying only they were related to work matters, it only said that Unipec had “made some losses” from crude trading because of a drop in prices, but didn’t link the two. And yet, overnight Bloomberg reported that in a confirmation that this particular story may have a lot of room to run, China’s state assets regulator was checking on the financial status of derivative trading accounts at some major state companies following the Unipex losses, citing people with knowledge of the situation. Specifically, as the Bloomberg source revealed, confirming that quietly Beijing is increasingly concerned afraid potential oil price contagion, the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission would inspect accounts of companies with derivative trading operations following the Unipec loss, with said inspections said to focus on the profit/loss status of commodity hedging positions. In other words, Beijing is worried that the Unipec losses may lead to some form of contagion, however good luck to anyone finding out just what has China’s top power echolon freaked out.
Oil volatile, ends up 2 percent but demand concerns still weigh (Reuters) – Oil prices rose about 2 percent in choppy trading on Wednesday, supported by a slight recovery on Wall Street, even as concerns remained about weakening global economic growth which could hurt demand for oil. Brent crude futures gained $1.11, or 2.1 percent, to settle at $54.91 a barrel, after trading between $52.51 and $56.56. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 ended $1.13, or 2.5 percent, higher at $46.54 a barrel, after hitting a session low at $44.35 and high at $47.78. Oil futures were buoyed by U.S. equity markets as major stock indices pared earlier losses. [.N] Crude futures have recently tracked stocks on Wall Street, which in 2018 recorded its worst year in a decade. However, manufacturing data from China earlier added to ongoing concerns about a slowing global economy and increased output out of countries like Russia. China’s factory activity contracted for the first time in more than two years in December, highlighting the challenges facing Beijing as it seeks to end a bruising trade war with Washington. “We still view some slippage in the Chinese economy as a significant bearish consideration given the fact that they had become the largest crude importer in the world,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, said in a note Euro zone manufacturing data also proved disappointing, as activity barely expanded at the end of 2018, according to a survey. Worries about an economic slowdown and excess supply dragged down oil prices from multi-year highs reached in October 2018. Crude futures ended 2018 down for the first year since 2015, with WTI slumping 25 percent and Brent tumbling 21 percent.
OPEC Output Falls Most in Almost 2 Years – — Before its agreement to cut oil supplies even started, OPEC’s production plunged by the most in almost two years last month. In a sign of the urgency felt by the cartel amid tumbling crude prices, leading member Saudi Arabia throttled back production, according to a Bloomberg survey of officials, analysts and ship-tracking data. The group’s pact to curb output only formally started this week. The kingdom’s deliberate cutbacks were compounded by unplanned losses in Iran, which is being targeted by U.S. sanctions, and in Libya, where protests halted the biggest oil field. As a result, oil output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fell 530,000 barrels a day to 32.6 million a day last month. It’s the sharpest pullback since January 2017, when the group first embarked on its strategy to clear the glut created by rising supplies of U.S. shale oil. A global coalition of oil producers known as OPEC+, which comprises both members of the group and other exporters including Russia, agreed on Dec. 7 to reduce output during the first six months of 2019. Crude prices failed to rally however, and instead slumped to the lowest in more than a year. Brent crude futures climbed as much as 5.1 percent on Wednesday as shipping data showed Saudi Arabia was delivering its announced cutbacks, but at about $56 a barrel it remains 35 percent below the four-year peak reached in early October. Investors remain concerned that OPEC+ isn’t cutting enough to make way for another surge of supply anticipated from shale oil drillers in America. They’re also increasingly worried that a slowing global economy, coupled with the U.S.-China trade dispute, will hit fuel demand and swell the pile-up of unwanted crude. The Saudis curtailed production by 420,000 barrels a day to 10.65 million last month, from a record of just above 11 million reached in November, the survey showed. As is often the case with OPEC, not all of the supply restraint seen last month was deliberate. Libya’s production fell by 110,000 barrels a day to 1 million a day. Sharara, the country’s biggest oil field, has been offline since it was stormed in mid-December by an armed group and demonstrators demanding better government services. The situation in the North African nation worsened on Wednesday when bad weather at the Es Sider port forced a separate output reduction of 100,000 barrels a day. Iran’s crude production fell by 120,000 barrels a day last month to 2.92 million a day, the survey showed.
Oil prices wobble as Saudi supply cuts offset economic growth concerns – Oil prices were choppy on Thursday, helped by dollar weakness and Saudi output cuts that offset concerns about a crude glut and signs of slowing economic growth. Crude futures slumped overnight on China growth concerns, rebounded as U.S. trading got under way and then pulled back as stock markets slumped on bearish U.S. manufacturing data. Brent crude futures were up 24 cents at $55.15 a barrel by 10:13 a.m. ET (1513 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell 16 cents to $46.38 a barrel. “The feeling is that OPEC is delivering on cuts,” SEB head of commodities Bjarne Schieldrop said, citing a Bloomberg survey showing Saudi Arabia had cut production significantly. The dollar added support as it slipped against a basket of currencies, making dollar-denominated oil cheaper for holders of other currencies. OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, alongside other producers led by Russia, agreed last year to rein in supplies starting from January after oil tumbled from above $86 on worries about surging output. In physical oil markets, Riyadh is expected to cut February prices for heavier crude grades sold to Asia by up to 50 cents a barrel due to weaker fuel oil margins, respondents to a Reuters survey said on Thursday. Libya’s closed Sharara oilfield is expected to lose 8,500 barrels per day to looting, state oil company NOC said on Thursday. NOC declared force majeure on Dec. 17 at Sharara, its biggest oilfield, after it was taken over on Dec. 8 by tribesmen, armed protesters and state guards demanding salary payments and development funds. Libya’s oil exports have also been suspended as bad weather conditions forced the OPEC country to shut all its export terminals, a local shipping agent and a Libyan oil source told Reuters on Thursday. President Donald Trump took credit for driving down oil prices, saying the drop amounted to a tax cut for Americans.
Oil rises in choppy trade as OPEC supply cuts vie with demand worry (Reuters) – Oil prices rose more than 1 percent on Thursday in volatile trade, drawing support from signs that Saudi Arabia is cutting crude output but pressured by concerns that slowing global economic growth could dent demand. Brent crude futures gained $1.04 to settle at $55.95 a barrel, a 1.89 percent gain. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 55 cents to settle at $47.09 a barrel, a 1.18 percent gain. Prices traded in a wide range, with Brent hitting a session high of $56.30 a barrel and a low of $53.93 a barrel. WTI posted a session high of $47.49 a barrel and a low of $45.35 a barrel. Supporting futures were signs of reduced supply from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC oil supply fell in December by the largest amount in almost two years, a Reuters survey found, as top exporter Saudi Arabia made an early start to a supply-limiting accord while Iran and Libya posted involuntary declines. OPEC led by Saudi Arabia, alongside allied producers led by Russia, agreed last year to rein in supplies starting from January after oil prices tumbled from above $86 on worries about surging output. “The Saudis are still spearheading a significant production cut that became official this week. Thus far, strong adherence to adjusted quotas appears a high probability,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, said in a note. But oil price gains were capped by concerns about a faltering global economy.
Oil rises on China-US trade talks, OPEC cuts – Oil prices rose on Friday after China said it would hold trade talks with the United States and both countries reported strong economic data, while signs of lower crude supply also lent support. OPEC cut crude output in December, a Reuters survey showed, and the American Petroleum Institute reported a drop in U.S. crude inventories. Government inventory data will be released later on Friday. Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose $1.34, or 2.4 percent, to $57.29 a barrel by 8:46 a.m. ET (1346 GMT). U.S. crude oil was up 97 cents, or 2.1 percent, at $48.06. Futures extended gains after monthly data showed the United States added 312,000 jobs in December, easily beating expectations for 176,000 new positions. China’s services sector extended its solid expansion in December, a private survey showed on Friday, bucking a trend of downbeat economic data. A survey from the Institute for Supply Management on Thursday showed U.S. factory activity slowed more than expected in December, and leading economies in Asia and Europe have reported a fall in manufacturing activity. Oil gained further support from the latest supply report from the API industry group, which said on Thursday that U.S. crude stocks fell by 4.5 million barrels last week. Both benchmarks are on track for solid gains in the first week of 2019 trading despite rising concerns that the China-U.S. trade war will lead to a global economic slowdown. But in comments that helped oil to rally, China’s commerce ministry said it would hold vice-ministerial trade talks with U.S. counterparts in Beijing on Jan. 7-8. The two nations have been locked in a trade war for much of the past year, disrupting the flow of hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods, raising concern of slowing growth and roiling financial markets. Despite the demand-side concerns, oil has received some support as supply cuts announced by the global coalition of producers known as OPEC+ kick in. OPEC, Russia and other non-members agreed in December to reduce supply by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2019. OPEC’s share of that cut is 800,000 bpd. The Reuters survey on Thursday found OPEC supply fell by 460,000 bpd in December, following assessments by Bloomberg and JBC Energy also showing a sizable decline.
Falling Rig Count Supports Crude Prices – More good news came in today for the oil bulls as Baker Hughes reported a 8-rig decrease for oil and gas in the United States this week. The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs now stands at 1,075 according to the report, with the number of active oil rigs decreasing by 8 to reach 877 and the number of gas rigs holding steady at 198. The oil and gas rig count is now 151 up from this time last year, 135 of which is in oil rigs. WTI prices were up on Friday following despite a rather bleak EIA report that showed substantial gasoline and distillate inventory builds. The upward price movement for both benchmarks comes on new optimism that the United States and China trade war will simmer down after China said it would hold trade talks with the US. At 12:18pm EDT, the WTI benchmark was trading up $1.12 (+2.38%) at $48.21, with Brent crude trading up $1.32 (+2.36%) at $57.27 per barrel. The most vital industry information will soon be right at your fingertipsJoin the world’s largest community dedicated entirely to energy professionals and enthusiasts Canada’s oil and gas rigs for the week increased by 6 rigs this week, a figure that pales in comparison to the 100 rigs or so that were lost in the last three weeks as the industry prepared for winter season. Canada’s total oil and gas rig count is now 76, which is 98 fewer rigs than this time last year, with a 5-rig increase for oil rigs, and a 1-rig increase for gas rigs for the week. The EIA’s estimates for US production for the week ending December 21 is still keeping a lid on prices, fighting OPEC’s production cuts every step of the way. US production averaged 11.7 million bpd for the week. By 1:08pm EDT, WTI had increased by 1.95% (+$0.92) at $48.01 on the day. Brent crude was trading up 2.09% (+$1.17) at $57.12 per barrel.
Oil Rallies On Trade Optimism – Oil prices popped on Friday as signs of a trade thaw emerged and data showed strong OPEC cuts in December. Brent and WTI are set to close out the week with the largest weekly gain since December 2016. This week, crude benchmarks could gain as much as 10 percent, owing to Saudi production cuts and a broader sense that the oil selloff has gone far enough. “Underpinning this wave of buying is mounting evidence that Saudi Arabia has taken an axe to its oil production,” Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd., told Bloomberg. U.S. and Chinese officials are set to meet on Monday to resume trade talks, and news of the meeting bolstered sentiment in financial markets. The three-month truce in the U.S.-China trade war ends in March, but the tone from officials from both countries has thawed recently. The shakiness in the global economy, which the trade war has contributed to, is also putting pressure on both sides to back away from the brink. “China has a strong desire to have a truce on trade war,” Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, told the FT. “[T]he probability of the two sides reaching an agreement within the 90 days is growing”. The collapse of oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2018 led to a slowdown in the shale patch. The business activity index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas show that activity decelerated and production growth slowed. The data suggests that the U.S. shale industry was very responsive and sensitive to lower oil prices. The average prediction for year-end WTI prices from oil and gas executives was $59 per barrel. OPEC’s oil production fell in December to 32.68 mb/d, down about 460,000 bpd from a month earlier, according to Reuters. It was the largest monthly decline in two years. The reductions came ahead of the OPEC+ deal, which begins this month, and suggests that Saudi Arabia wanted to unilaterally tighten up the market. Saudi Arabia alone slashed output by 400,000 bpd, and Saudi officials said they would cut deeper in January.
Oil Heads for Biggest Weekly Gain Since 2017 – Brent crude headed for its biggest weekly gain since July 2017 as OPEC’s production cuts outweighed concerns over the health of the global economy. The global benchmark is on track for an 9.3 percent advance this week after rebounding Friday from earlier losses. Prices have rallied as Saudi Arabia slowed pumping even before OPEC’s deal to reduce output went into effect. That’s added to bullish sentiment from progress in trade talks between the world’s biggest economies and helped offset wider stock market turmoil driven by fears of a slowdown in China. Oil’s positive start to 2019 follows its worst quarter in four years and a 20 percent annual loss driven by panic over a growing glut of crude. While OPEC’s output plunged by the most in almost two years last month and producers have pledged to curb supplies through the first half of 2019, concerns about the oversupply prevail as stockpiles at America’s main storage hub show signs of swelling. “While crude seemed to have bottomed out and is expected to edge higher, there’s a possibility for additional drops along the way, driven by seasonal factors and risks from wider financial markets,” said Hong Sungki, a commodities trader at NH Investment & Securities Co. in Seoul. “Still, oil rebounded yesterday, shaking off the slump in equities, which is an encouraging sign.” Brent for March settlement rose as much as $1.11, or 2 percent, to $57.06 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, after earlier falling as much as 1.1 percent. The benchmark crude was at $57 a barrel at 8:13 a.m. in London. West Texas Intermediate for February delivery rose $1.04, or 2.2 percent, to $48.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 6.2 percent this week, the most since June. The March contract traded at a discount of $8.68 to Brent. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, trimmed production last month, bringing overall output in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries down 530,000 barrels a day to 32.6 million a day, according to a Bloomberg survey of officials, analysts and ship-tracking data. That’s the sharpest pullback since January 2017 when OPEC started on its strategy to clear a glut created by surging supplies from shale producers. Oil has risen for five days, shaking off concern over global growth that’s hammered stock markets this week. Optimism that the U.S. and China are working towards a thaw in trade tensions has helped bolster prices.
Oil rises on China-U.S. talks, gains capped by U.S. fuel build – (Reuters) – Oil rose nearly 2 percent on Friday after proposed trade talks between the United States and China eased some fears about a global economic slowdown, but gains were capped after the United States reported a sharp build in refined product inventories. Brent crude futures rose $1.11, a 1.98 percent gain, to settle at $57.06 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased 87 cents to settle at $47.96 a barrel, a 1.85 percent gain. After both benchmarks fell sharply last year, prices posted solid gains in the first week of 2019, despite recent data that added to concerns about a slowing global economy. Brent increased about 9.3 percent for the week, while WTI rose about 5.8 percent. Prices pared gains on Friday after data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a sharp increase in product inventories as refiners ramped up utilization rates to 97.2 percent of capacity, the highest rate on record for this time of year. Gasoline stocks rose 6.9 million barrels last week, while distillate stockpiles grew 9.5 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with forecasts for builds under 2 million barrels. U.S. crude stockpiles were little changed. “Winter-grade gasoline supplies could be approaching burdensome levels if Gulf Coast runs remain elevated at a near full-out pace,” . U.S. energy firms this week cut oil rigs for the first time in three weeks, reducing the rig count by eight to 877, General Electric Co’s Baker Hughes energy services firm said. Some analysts were forecasting the first decline in the rig count – an indicator of future production – in three years in 2019. Oil drew support from comments by China’s commerce ministry, which said Beijing would hold vice-ministerial trade talks with U.S. counterparts on Jan. 7-8. The news helped boost sentiment across riskier assets including the U.S. equity and oil markets. Washington and Beijing have been locked in a trade war for much of the past year, disrupting the flow of hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods and hampering growth.
Brother Of Saudi Billionaire Prince Alwaleed Re-arrested – Among the more notable geopolitical events that took place last week, and which was swept away by the chaos in the capital markets, was Thursday’s surprising announcement of a Saudi cabinet reshuffle that moved around some of the key players in the Khashoggi murder scandal (most notably the chief Saudi diplomat, Adel al-Jubeir) and removed Prince Mohammed bin Nawaf al Saud as the Kingdom’s ambassador to the UK.As a result of the reshuffle, more liberals and progressives will move into positions of power, suggesting that it could be part of the Kingdom’s plan to move ahead with its ‘liberalizing’ reforms to try and rehabilitate MbS’s tarnished reputation as a reformer. Amid the reshuffle, the king also ordered the creation of a new political and security council (presumably to help protect his chosen successor’s flank) and – in a move that is reminiscent of a controversial decision made by President Trump this year – establishes a new Saudi space agency.The biggest change was the apparent demotion of al-Jubeir to the lesser position of minister of state for foreign affairs and moving Ibrahim al-Assaf, formerly the kingdom’s finance minister, to the foreign affairs role. Al-Jubeir who was one of the kingdom’s key liaisons with western media during its response to Khashoggi’s killing and played an important role in the Saudis PR response to the Khashoggi killing, in addition to being a stalwart supporter of the Crown Prince.But perhaps an even more prominent event took place just ahead of the reshuffle, when on Wednesday the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi reported that Saudi authorities have re-arrested the brother of billionaire Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal just days following the death of their “reformist” father, after Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the arrest of Khalid bin Talal. “The arrest took place on Tuesday night and until Wednesday evening Khaled was not released despite some promises,” the report said according to The New Arab.
Outrage After Netflix Blocks Comedy Show Critical of Saudi Crown Prince – Netflix has removed an episode of comedy show Patriot Act with Hasan Minhaj for viewers in Saudi Arabia after the country complained about the host’s criticism of its war in Yemen and the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.According to the FT, the streaming site confirmed it had removed the episode, which is described on the website as: “Hasan exposes grim truths about Saudi Arabia and the charismatic crown prince known as ‘MBS [Mohammed bin Salman].'”The decision followed a complaint made by Saudi Arabia’s Communications and Information Technology Commission on the grounds that the episode violated the anti-cyber crime law against “material impinging on public order, religious values, public morals, and privacy”. Under Article 6 of Saudi Arabia’s anti-cyber crime law, “production, preparation, transmission, or storage” of such material “through the information network or computers” is punishable by a five-year prison sentence and a 3m Saudi riyal ($800,000) fine.
Saudi Arabia Bought Sudanese Children to Use as Soldiers in Yemen: NYT – In 2016 Saudi Arabia offered around $10,000 for families in Darfur, Sudan affected by the Sudanese civil war to send their children to fight in Yemen, the New York Times claimed on Friday. In the article, “On the Front Line of the Saudi War in Yemen? Child Soldiers from Darfur,” the newspaper quoted Hager Shomo Ahmed, 16, saying: “Families know that the only way their lives will change is if their sons join the war and bring them back the money.” He was only 14 when the offer was made to his family, according to the Times. The report also quoted Hafiz Ismail Mohammed, a critic of Sudan’s government and former banker, saying: “People are desperate. They are fighting in Yemen because they know that in Sudan they don’t have a future.” “We are exporting soldiers to fight like they are a commodity we are exchanging for foreign currency,” Mohammed added, according to the daily. Most of the Sudanese fighters come from “the battle-scarred and impoverished region of Darfur, where some 300,000 people were killed and 1.2 million displaced during a dozen years of conflict” in the nation of 40 million in Northeast Africa, said the Times. “At any time for nearly four years as many as 14,000 Sudanese militiamen have been fighting in Yemen in tandem with the local militia aligned with the Saudis, according to several Sudanese fighters who have returned and Sudanese lawmakers who are attempting to track it. Hundreds, at least, have died there,” the daily reported.”Five fighters who have returned from Yemen and another about to depart said that children made up at least 20 percent of their units. Two said children were more than 40 percent,” reported the Times.The newspaper said Saudi Arabia paid Sudanese children a salary starting at the riyal equivalent of around $480 a month, with bonuses for combat, deposited directly into the Faisal Islamic Bank of Sudan, partly owned by Saudis.”At the end of a six-month rotation, each fighter also received a one-time payment of at least 700,000 Sudanese pounds – roughly $10,000 at the current official exchange rate,” the Times claimed.
Food Aid to Yemen ‘Snatched From the Starving’ by US-Backed Saudi Allies — Amid famine and rampant disease that have spawned from Yemen’s four-year civil war, an Associated Press report out Monday revealed that food aid pouring in from across the globe, meant to curb the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, is “being snatched from the starving” by armed forces allied with the Saudi-led, U.S.-backed coalition that supports the Yemeni government as well as the Houthi rebels.As the AP reports:Across Yemen, factions and militias on all sides of the conflict have blocked food aid from going to groups suspected of disloyalty, diverted it to front-line combat units or sold it for profit on the black market, according to public records and confidential documents obtained by the AP and interviews with more than 70 aid workers, government officials, and average citizens from six different provinces.[…]Some observers have attributed the near-famine conditions in much of the country to the coalition’s blockade of ports that supply Houthi-controlled areas. AP’s investigation found that large amounts of food are making it into the country, but once there, the food often isn’t getting to people who need it most – raising questions about the ability of United Nations agencies and other big aid organizations to operate effectively in Yemen. As one senior U.N. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, put it, “If there is no corruption, there is no famine.”“The army that should protect the aid is looting the aid.” Thousands of Yemeni families are still starving despite a multi-billion-dollar international effort to feed them. The latest in @AP‘s year-long coverage of Yemen’s civil war. https://t.co/TMJTm6kOU0 – The Associated Press (@AP) December 31, 2018
UAE Arms Al-Qaeda and ISIS in Yemen: Report – A Yemeni warlord who has also been a fundraiser for Al-Qaeda and at one point is believed to have belonged to Daesh is being armed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) the Washington Post has discovered. In a startling interview, Abu Al-Abbas revealed that he has received millions of dollars in weapons and financial support for his fighters from the UAE, which is one of Washington’s closest Middle East allies, despite the fact that he was once a member of militant groups on the US terrorist list. “The coalition is still supporting me,” he claimed, but he denied that he is a terrorist. “If I really was a terrorist, they would have taken me in for questioning.” The Post points out that Al-Abbas’s case underscores the awkward alliances and odd bedfellows that are found on all sides in Yemen’s four-year war. It also raises questions about the UAE’s conduct in the conflict, highlighting its objectionable alliance as well as its part in the humanitarian disaster unfolding in the southern Arabia Peninsula. Along with its more powerful Gulf neighbor Saudi Arabia, the UAE has been involved in a vicious military campaign in Yemen since 2015. The war is seen widely as a disaster which has created one of the worst humanitarian crises since the Second World War, with an estimated 85,000Yemeni children having died and a further 20 million facing starvation. The Gulf coalition is seeking to defeat the northern Yemeni rebels known as Houthis and restore the country’s government-in-exile. The deadly conflict has been supported by the US, which assists it Gulf allies with intelligence-gathering, logistical support and the sale of billions of dollars’ worth of weapons and equipment.
Anti-ISIS Coalition Airstrikes Killed Over 1,100 Civilians – While it has been reported previously that Saudi airstrikes in Yemen have led to the deaths of over 10,000 inncoent civilians, a finding which according to Reuters suggested the US could be found guilty of war crimes for supporting the Saudi assault, it is time to shift attention to what is taking place a few hundred miles north.The reason: U.S.-led coalition airstrikes against the Islamic State have killed over 1,000 civilians in Iraq and Syria since 2014.In its latest monthly civilian casualty report, the Coalition detailed confirmed deaths of 1,139 civilians in airstrikes conducted since the beginning of Operation Inherent Resolve between August 2014 and November 2018, VoA reports.Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve Monthly Civilian Casualty Report: https://t.co/iEVL2q3qMM – Inherent Resolve (@CJTFOIR) December 30, 2018“The Coalition conducted a total of 31,406 strikes between August 2014 and end of November 2018. During this period, based on information available, CJTF-OIR assesses at least 1,139 civilians have been unintentionally killed by Coalition strikes since the start of Operation Inherent Resolve,” the report read, however noting that nearly eight million Iraqis and Syrians have been liberated from IS-rule during that time (many of which have since fled to Europe thanks to Angela Merkel’s disastrous “open door” policy which was the key catalyst in spawning Europe’s populist wave). An additional 184 reports of other unintended civilian casualties are still being evaluated.
Turkish TV Shows Men Carrying Jamal Khashoggi’s Body Parts in Bags – video – A Turkish television channel has broadcasted video showing men carrying suitcases purportedly containing the remains of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi into the residence of his country’s consul general in Istanbul, reports Reuters. The footage broadcast by A Haber shows men carrying what it says were a total of five cases through the main entrance of the residence, a short distance from the consulate where Khashoggi, a leading critic of Saudi policies, was killed in early October. Saudi officials have rejected accusations that the crown prince ordered his death. The murder has sparked global outrage and damaged the international reputation of 33-year-old prince, the kingdom’s de facto leader.Sabah said the cases had been brought to the residence in a black minibus at 3:09 pm (1209 GMT). After offering numerous contradictory explanations regarding the fate of Khashoggi, Riyadh later said he had been killed and his body dismembered when negotiations to persuade him to return to Saudi Arabia failed.
HSBC Turkey CEO Under Investigation For Insulting Erdogan – The CEO of HSBC Turkey, one of the country’s most high-profile executives, is facing an investigation over allegations that he insulted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan via social media back in 2013, according to Bloomberg. The investigation is a sign that the Turkish state’s crackdown on dissent is intensifying. The probe is related to a five-year-old retweet sent by HSBC CEO Selim Kervanci during a wave of protests against Erdogan’s rule five years ago. Investigators haven’t said where they got the information. The footage was reportedly from the 2004 German movie “Downfall,” which was set during Adolf Hitler’s last days and depicted the collapse of Nazi Germany (a scene from the movie has been popular fodder for viral Internet jokes in the west). The demonstrations, which began in June 2013, snowballed from a small sit-in against the redevelopment of the Gezi Park in central Istanbul into a weeks-long nationwide protests against Erdogan’s rule.Kervanci gave a deposition to Turkish police back in September. Insulting Erdogan is a crime in Turkey, and as the purge inspired by an attempted coup back in 2016 has continued, Turkish police have continued to prosecute thousands of people for allegedly mocking or insulting the president.The attack on the prominent banker is reminiscent of Erdogan’s screeds against the “interest rate lobby” – the cabal of senior bankers he accused of pushing for higher rates in the country, to the detriment of the Turkish people.
Turkey’s War On Christian Missionaries – The day after American pastor Andrew Brunson was released from Turkish prison, another Christian who had been living for nearly two decades in the country was detained by Turkish authorities, and told that he had two weeks to leave the country — without his wife and three children. The American-Canadian evangelist, David Byle, not only suffered several detentions and interrogations over the years, but he had been targeted for deportation on three occasions. Each time, he was saved by court rulings. This time, however, he was unable to prevent banishment, and left the country after two days in a detention center.When he tried to return to his family in Turkey on November 20, he was denied re-entry. According to Claire Evans, regional manager of the organization International Christian Concern: “Turkey is making it increasingly clear that there is no room for Christianity, even though the constitution states otherwise. It is no coincidence that Turkey decided to initiate this process the day after Brunson’s release from prison and that, in doing so, the authorities ignored a court order. We must keep the Byle family in our prayers during this period of difficult separation.” Brunson and Byle are among many Christian clerics who have fallen victim to Turkey’s aversion to Christianity. In its annual Human Rights Violations Reports, published since 2009, Turkey’s Association of Protestant Churches details Turkey’s systematic discrimination against Protestants, including verbal and physical attacks; nor does the Turkish government recognize the Protestant community as a “legal entity,” denying it the right to freely establish and maintain places of worship. Turkey’s Protestants cannot open their own schools or train their own clerics, forcing them to rely on support of foreign church leaders. Still, several foreign religious workers and church members have been denied entry into Turkey, refused residence permits or deported.
US Commanders Recommend Letting Syrian Kurds Keep US-Supplied Weapons – US commanders planning for the withdrawal of their troops from Syria are recommending that Kurdish fighters battling Islamic State (IS) be allowed to keep US-supplied weapons, four American officials have said, a move that would likely anger NATO ally Turkey. Three of the officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the recommendations were part of discussions on a draft plan by the US military.The US told the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) that they would be armed by Washington until the fight against IS was completed, one of the US officials said.”The fight isn’t over. We can’t simply start asking for the weapons back,” an official told the Reuters news agency.The proposal to leave US-supplied weapons with the YPG, which could include anti-tank missiles, armoured vehicles and mortars, would reassure Kurdish allies that they were not being abandoned. Ankara which views the YPG as an extension of a Kurdish insurgency inside Turkey, has threatened to launch an offensive against the YPG, raising fears of a surge in violence that could harm hundreds of thousands of civilians. Turkey wants the US to take the weapons back, so the commanders’ recommendation, if confirmed, could complicate Trump’s plan to allow Ankara to finish off the fight against IS inside Syria.The Pentagon keeps records of the weapons it has supplied to the YPG and their chain of custody. But, the US officials said, it would be nearly impossible to locate all of the equipment. “How are we going to get them back and who is going to take them back?” one of the officials asked.
US Troops Still Patrolling Syria’s Manbij Despite Trump’s Order to Stop Being There – The Stars and Stripes fluttered above four US armoured vehicles driving through drizzle in the Syrian city of Manbij on Sunday, each visibly carrying an armed soldier on lookout duty.The US patrol inside the strategic city near the Turkish border comes despite President Donald Trump’s shock announcement this month that he is pulling American troops out of the war-torn country.Trump has said the withdrawal will be slow. US-led coalition jets and attack helicopters could still be seen in the skies over Manbij on Saturday, Reuters reported. Local fighters with the US-backed militia that has held the city since 2016, the Manbij Military Council, were conducting their normal patrols wearing red berets and armed with AK-47 assault rifles.Almost eight years into Syria’s civil war, a Kurdish-led alliance called the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) controls a large swathe of territory in the country’s northeast, including Manbij. The unexpected US pullout announcement left Syria’s Kurds scrambling to find a new ally in the Damascus government, as they fear losing US support would leave them exposed to a long-threatened Turkish assault.In a statement issued on Friday, Syria’s most powerful Kurdish militia, the People’s Protection Units, or Y.P.G., called on the Syrian government to send troops to the city of Manbij to ward off a possible attack by Turkey. https://t.co/yhhk2jYYql – Adam Goldman (@adamgoldmanNYT) December 28, 2018Still, inside Manbij on Sunday, American troops did not appear to have left yet, an AFP correspondent said, and residents were relieved to have spotted at least two US patrols.”The Americans’ presence is reassuring for people, as the situation has become tense since we heard about their decision to withdraw,” said Mohammed Ahmad, a 28-year-old shop owner.
Kurdish Fighters Withdraw From Syrian City of Manbij – A convoy of Syrian Kurdish fighters has withdrawn from Manbij on Wednesday, according to the Syrian Defense Ministry, which estimates that around 400 of them left. This was, by most accounts, materially all remaining Kurdish forces in Manbij.Manbij has been under the control of Kurdish forces and some small allied factions since 2017, when they seized the city with the support of US forces. Turkey’s military has announced intentions to invade the city, and large numbers of Turkish-backed rebels have gathered in the vicinity for this.At present, the only forces known to remain inside Manbij are US and French troops, while a small number of Syrian Army forces are deployed on the outskirts, intending to prevent Turkey and the rebels from seizing the city.What that’s going to look like with the Kurds’ withdrawal is unclear. Turkey wouldn’t really have a justification to invade the city anymore at this point, but has long coveted the Euphrates River-adjacent city as a staging area for attacks deeper into Syrian Kurdistan. The US presumably doesn’t intend to contest any Turkish advance, though it’s not clear they’ll welcome the city being de facto seized by Islamist rebel groups that are aligned with Turkey.
Iraqi Jets Strike Terrorists In Syria At Assad’s Request As US Slowing Troop Pullout – As the United States is reportedly “slowing things down” on Trump’s announced full troop withdrawal, Syria’s President Assad is apparently speeding things up in terms of reasserting sovereign control over all parts of the country, as he’s long promised to “liberate every inch” of natural Syria. On Sunday Assad took the controversial step of authorizing Iraqi forces to attack terror targets inside Syria at will, according to state-run SANA “without waiting for permission from authorities in Damascus” while the two allies coordinate action against remaining ISIS pockets in the country’s east. Quickly on the heels of that decision, Iraqi fighters jets bombed ISIS positions across the Syrian border on Monday. According to official reports, “Iraq’s Joint Operations Command said F-16s struck a two-storey house in Souseh, close to the border, that was being used as a meeting place for ISIS leaders.”Unconfirmed reports say up to two dozen or more ISIS commanders were taken out in the air strikes as a high level meeting had been taking place at one of the locations targeted. Since Trump’s Syria pullout announcement, Pentagon leaders have expressed concern over who will fill the remaining power vacuum in Syria’s north and east, and have especially feared Iranian entrenchment as a result, as well as the potential of Iraqi Shia pro-Iran militias to fill the gap.Indeed Monday’s Iraqi air strikes suggest it is precisely Baghdad – which is ironically an ally of both Iran and the United States, and increasingly of Damascus – which is already stepping up operations while the US is set to move out. According to the Dubai-based The National, Iraqi leaders hope for even closer cooperation with the Assad government in counter-terror efforts, something sure to trigger alarm bells in Washington and Tel Aviv: Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said Iraq is seeking to move beyond its current arrangement with Damascus – under which it launches air strikes against ISIS militants in the neighbouring country after getting approval – but did not offer further details. “There are groups operating in Syria, and Iraq is the best way to deal with this,” he told reporters in reference to ISIS remnants.
Iraq Rejects Iran Sanctions and US Troop Presence – – In another blow to US control on Iraq, the country’s foreign minister warned that Baghdad would ignore US sanctions on Iran. Speaking to journalists on Wednesday, Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohammed Ali al-Hakim laid out the latest step on the path to independence for Baghdad from the US concerning sanctions on Iran by Washington. Although Iraq currently has a 90-day waiver to trade with Iran issued on December 20th, Hakim let reporters know Iraq would be pursuing their own policy on Iran should the waiver not be renewed. Hakim explained to reporters that “These sanctions, the siege, or what is called the embargo,” imposed by the US is “unilateral, not international,” and Iraq is “not obliged [to follow] them.” This is a big step for Baghdad to take in the face of pressure from Washington for Iraq to become “energy independent” with the help of US corporations exploiting their oil and gas resources. Instead, as explained by Hakim, Iraq would rather choose their own options for energy, even if that includes continuing the annual $12 billion in trade between Iraq and Iran flowing over US objections. There are also discussions ongoing concerning increasing the amount of trade between Baghdad and Tehran despite US pressure. Iraqi President Barham Salih and his Iranian President Hassan Rouhani even doubled down on this during a recent meeting where Rouhani said that Tehran was willing to increase trade with Baghdad from the $12 billion a year mark to $20 billion. Hakim assured reporters Iraq is already thinking of “solutions” to counteract any US threats to increased trade with Iran. According to Hakim, there are multiple options open to Baghdad “including dealing in Iraqi dinars in bilateral trade” as opposed to US dollars. This defiance to US sanctions is only the latest step in Iraq declaring independence from Washington. Another sign that the US is losing their grip on Baghdad was also made apparent last week when, after Trump made a surprise visit to US troops in Iraq, fueling outrage among Iraqi politicians. Many Iraqi leaders called Trump’s surprise visit to their country a violation of their nation’s sovereignty. This has ended up leading to a wider backlash and resulted in multiple Iraqi politicians demanding a complete end to the US military presence in the country.
Iran’s Navy Plans To Upgrade Speedboats With Stealth Technology To Counter US Navy – Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy commander on Monday criticized the presence of US Navy warships patrolling the Persian Gulf and said the IRGC is preparing to upgrade its speedboats with stealth technologies and new missile launchers as tensions increase between Tehran and Washington near the Strait of Hormuz. “The IRGC’s navy attaches great importance to high speed and maneuverability of its boats in the missions,” Alireza Tangsiri, the top IRGC Navy Commander, was quoted as saying by Press TV.“We are planning to equip the IRGC’s speedboats with radar-evading stealth technology while increasing their speed in order to conduct their missions,” he said, adding that “new missiles moving at very high speed are being installed on the IRGC’s naval vessels.”According to the Xinhua News Agency, the IRGC has some of the fastest speedboats in the world. Tangsiri said, “we are working on speedboats with the speed of 80 knots (148.16 km) (per hour) and beyond that.”The IRGC commander pointed out that the arrival (Dec. 21) of the USS John C. Stennis, a nuclear-powered supercarrier, through the Strait of Hormuz of the Persian Gulf, was met with IRGC vessels shadowing the strike group. Tangsiri said, “we are constantly monitoring them [US Navy] and have full command on these foreign forces” as they move through the Gulf. “The presence of foreign forces in the region disturbs security, noting that regional countries are capable of guaranteeing their security through staging joint military maneuvers and boosting cooperation,” he added.On Sunday, Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Mohammad Baqeri said that the US is inciting new fears in the Gulf through its presence in the region.
Is A ‘Land Swap’ Between Turkey And Syria Being Brokered By Russia? — As confusion and tensions continue to mount in the Syrian Kurdish city of Manbij, located just 70 miles north of Aleppo, and as pro-Turkish forces prep for an invasion, is there a land swap in the works in northern Syria being brokered between Russia and Turkey? This is the pressing question as over the weekend US helicopters were filmed hovering above the potential battle lines, even after widespread reports of a US troop pullout from the area and following Kurdish militias quickly calling on the Syrian Army’s help to prevent a Turkish invasion and massacre of the province’s Kurdish inhabitants.Following a high level Turkish defense delegation visit to Moscow on Saturday, which involved talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu, RT reports the future of the Syrian-Turkish border region is on the line. This as many in Washington worry that a rapid American draw down will create a power vacuum :Moscow and Ankara are to “define certain areas of influence and understand who will control what.” There are residual groupings of Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) fighters who are ready to exploit any no power vacuum in northern Syria…Turkish ambitions to reinstate full control over the northern Syria may not be an option for Damascus, but “it is also important for Russia to not lose Turkey as an ally.”Marianna Belenkaya, a Middle East expert and commentator at Russia’s Kommersant daily, noted: “There’s a possibility that some kind of a land swap will be discussed,” and explained, “What is happening around Manbij is similar to what Russia has suggested a year ago in Afrin.” Essentially this means Moscow is pressuring Kurdish militias to disarm as an independent entity and come under Damascus’ jurisdiction; and in exchange the Turks would agree to not invade the Kurdish-populated canton. Regarding Afrin, the Kurds rejected the deal at the time and were forced out during Turkey’s ‘Operation Olive Branch’.
US withdrawal from Syria leaves China’s investment plans up in air – US President Donald Trump’s surprise decision to withdraw US forces from Syria will leave China’s intended investment into the country’s reconstruction in uncertainty, analysts said, adding that the move might also suggest a stronger strategic focus by Washington on the Indo-Pacific region to put pressure on Beijing. Experts said it remains unclear when the troop withdrawals will be completed but the departure is likely to prolong instability in Syria and delay its reconstruction. “Trump is restarting the game and all parties there will make their own moves. China is watching closely how changes in the Middle East would affect its own interests there,” said Wu Xinbo, director of the Centre for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. China has kept its distance from the Syria conflict but is interested in promoting its economic presence in the war-torn country under the “Belt and Road Initiative”, according to Wang Jian, a Middle East expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. “Chinese companies and investment cannot hurry now,” he said, adding that security would be a major concern with the withdrawal of US troops. “If the security situation worsens, it will affect China’s intended economic cooperation in the region. Security risks may also spill over to other countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the UAE where China has extensive economic interests.” Although China is the world’s biggest oil importing country and heavily relies on energy imports from the Middle East, it does not have a military presence in the region. Chinese businesses used to invest in and trade with Syria before the civil war broke out in 2011. Bilateral trade between China and Syria amounted to US$2.4 billion that year. Almost all Chinese companies have since pulled out or suspended operations there.But should the situation stabilise, Chinese companies will return and Beijing is keenly interested in reconstruction. Analysts said the belt and road plan emphasises trade and infrastructure construction, and that both will be urgently needed when reconstruction begins. According to United Nations estimates, the seven-year military conflict has wiped out nearly US$400 billion worth of assets in Syria.
The perils of trusting America: A reminder for Asian allies – President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision to pull all American troops out of Syria is yet another chilling reminder that those who believe in pledges and assurances made by the United States do so at their grave peril. While his generals and European allies may fret over the geopolitical implications of his capricious move, it is the US-backed Kurdish forces, fighting on America’s behalf against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria group in north-eastern Syria, who will bear the brunt of the repercussions. It is almost certain that Turkey, which has long labelled them as terrorists inciting its Kurdish minority to secede, will carry out its threat to move in and crush them. Deserted by the Americans who have been funding, training and arming them, the Kurds will pay for Mr Trump’s perfidy with blood. He may have made good on his campaign promise to pull out US troops but, to the Kurds, he has just stabbed them in the back. And they say this openly, in so many words, to the world’s media. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan must be watching this development – which is nothing short of a breach of faith – with great trepidation. So should other economies in the Asia-Pacific region which the US has been courting in its thinly-disguised attempt to contain the rise of China. Seoul and Tokyo, especially, could not have forgotten that soon after President Trump met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Singapore in June, he called off a long-scheduled military exercise between South Korean and US forces – just like that, without any prior notice to Seoul. Or that he has signalled more than once his aversion to keeping American troops in South Korea. No one can be sure now that he would not, in a moment of impetuosity, announce a US pullout from there as well, via Twitter at 3 o’clock in the morning. .
Israeli settlement activity appears to surge in Trump era – With little resistance from a friendly White House, Israel has launched a new settlement push in the West Bank since President Donald Trump took office, laying the groundwork for what could be the largest construction binge in years, according to data obtained by The Associated Press.The figures, gathered from official government sources by the anti-settlement monitoring group Peace Now, show an increase in building in 2018 and a sharp spike in planning for future construction. This trend, highlighted last week when an Israeli committee advanced plans for thousands more settlement homes on war-won lands, has only deepened Palestinian mistrust of the Trump administration as it says it is preparing to roll out a Mideast peace plan. Each new settlement expansion further diminishes the chances of setting up a Palestinian state alongside Israel. Both supporters and opponents of settlements confirm a change in atmosphere since early 2017, when Trump took over from Barack Obama, whose administration had tried to rein in construction. “The feeling of the (Israeli) government is everything is allowed, that the time to do things is now because the (U.S.) administration is the most pro-settlement you can ever have,” said Hagit Ofran of Peace Now’s Settlement Watch program. Peace Now uses several measurements of settlement activity. These include “plans,” or the bureaucratic stages of preparing a project, including initial proposals; “tenders,” when bids are solicited from contractors to do large projects; and “construction starts,” when the building actually begins.
Israel’s Opposition Zionist Union Falls Apart Before Election – Israel’s opposition, which just last week stressed the need to merge forces to beat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in upcoming elections, has splintered instead. Labor chairman Avi Gabbay announced Tuesday he was breaking up the Zionist Union — his party’s alliance with former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua — which was parliament’s second-largest faction. The bloc has been tanking in the polls, projected to receive less than 10 of parliament’s 120 seats, compared to its current 24. “I hoped and believed that the change and the new partnership would lead to growth, to a real connection and mutual admiration,” Gabbay said. “But the public is smart and saw that this wasn’t the reality and distanced itself.” Gabbay didn’t elaborate, but The Times of Israel reported Thursday that Livni had approached Benny Gantz to ask the former military chief of staff about joining his new party. The Israeli political landscape has been churning since the governing coalition announced last week that it would dissolve itself and move up elections by more than half a year to April 9, with parties forming and fracturing. On Saturday, Education Minister Naftali Bennett and Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked broke away from the Jewish Home party Bennett led, creating a new right-wing party. Some analysts and one poll have suggested that move could compromise Netanyahu’s grip on power by shrinking the conservative bloc he traditionally depends on to form a coalition government. Other polls show Netanyahu continuing to defeat all comers.
Israel’s ‘Sea Wall’ Complete Along Gaza For Total Air, Sea and Land Blockade -Israel is close to bringing its controversial ‘Sea Wall’ which runs along side the Gaza Strip to completion, Israeli media Channel 10 reports. The project has come under international condemnation and scrutiny since it began in May 2018, at which point Israeli officials announced the massive sea barrier separating Gazan and Israeli sections of water is necessary to prevent Hamas fighters from infiltrating Israel by sea as they did during the last war in 2014. The barrier is 200 meters long extending from the shore and 50 meters wide, and is the latest in what Israel’s defense ministry is calling a security barrier to complement other initiatives, including a bigger, ongoing project to construct “underground walls” to prevent Hamas tunneling. The sea barrier includes underwater boulders lining an interior concrete wall, which is further lined with seismic detectors and other high-tech classified security systems. Topping the wall is a smart fence with detectors rising to a height of six meters, or 20 feet, according to Israeli media reports. When the sea wall’s construction began eight months ago, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman touted it as necessary to “block any possibility of entering Israel by sea” while specifically mentioning Hamas attempts to circumvent Israeli security measures. Though Hamas attacks or infiltration attempts by sea have not been common, during the 2014 Gaza War, known in Israel as Operation Protective Edge, a Hamas commando unit attempt to infiltrate Israel from the sea at Zikim Beach, just north of the Gaza Strip. The small group of Hamas fighters “stormed the Zionist naval base on the shores of the sea,” according to Hamas claims at the time, before being gunned down by IDF soldiers on the beach. The sea wall has been somewhat controversial among Israel’s own domestic population, as its environment ministry lately warned the barrier could damage Israel’s beaches by artificially altering sand deposits along the coast. But most importantly it puts Israel a significant step closer to imposing a total air, sea and land blockade on the strip, which has been in effect since 2007.
Egypt Goes Guns-a-Blazing- 40 Terrorists Killed In Mass Raids Following Tour Bus Bombing – In the usual fashion of Egypt’s Sisi-led military junta, security forces have gone into “terror hideouts” guns a blazing after Friday’s bus bombing which left 4 dead and a dozen injured, mostly Vietnamese tourists visiting the Giza Pyramids outside of Cairo, in a casualty toll that climbed from two to four later in the day. The raids killed 40 terrorists according to Egyptian security officials, and authorities announced further the successful counter-terror operation thwarted a planned “series of attacks on tourist sites, churches and military personnel,” according to the BBC. Reports identified that 30 of the militants were killed during early morning raids by police and military personnel in Giza while a further 10 were ambushed by security forces in Northern Sinai, according to the interior ministry. “A group of terrorists were planning to carry out a series of aggressive attacks targeting state institutions, particularly economic ones, as well as tourism… and Christian places of worship,” the ministry statement said. And further the raids were ordered “as a continuation of the ministry’s efforts in chasing terrorist elements involved in the implementation of hostile operations seeking to destabilize the country’s security,” the statement said.The interior ministry also said police had seized large quantities of bomb-making materials, ammunition and a caches of weapons during the raids, touting these as proof that terror cells were effectively taken out. Local media circulated government-released images of what are purported to be dead terrorists responsible for planting the roadside bomb in Giza as well as guns and ammunition.
Inside The Country Where You Can Buy A Black Man For $400 – Slavery is thriving in Libya, where thousands of black Africans hoping to get to Europe instead find themselves bought and sold, forced to work for nothing, and facing torture at the hands of their owners. Slavery typically conjures up images of ships transporting black Africans across the Atlantic, or the death marches of the trans-Saharan slave trade. But this modern-day version has added a cruel twist – this time, people from sub-Saharan Africa are often selling themselves into slavery, believing they are buying a ticket from a life of conflict, poverty, or repression to a glittering future in Europe. In a grim irony, the very policies of a European Union that is hardening itself against immigration are largely responsible not only for preventing people from reaching the continent, but their becoming enslaved and dying in their attempts to escape. Few places could be further from the promised land than current-day Libya, where tens of thousands are detained indefinitely, spend years working for arbitrary sums or without pay altogether, and are at constant risk of being kidnapped, sold, and auctioned from one militia to another. In a country where chaos is the rule, some experts argue that such treatment doesn’t amount to slavery, a view that downplays the racism underlying the situation. Ikuenobe had ended up trapped in Libya after leaving his hometown of Benin City, a verdant city of low-rise buildings in southwestern Nigeria, in search of a better life in Europe. He had planned for a two-week journey northward across the Sahara desert into Libya, from where he would set off in a boat across the Mediterranean. Instead, he found himself spending more than two years trying to survive in the underbelly of modern-day slavery.
C.I.A.’s Afghan Forces Leave a Trail of Abuse and Anger – NYT – Razo Khan woke up suddenly to the sight of assault rifles pointed at his face, and demands that he get out of bed and onto the floor. Within minutes, the armed raiders had separated the men from the women and children. Then the shooting started. As Mr. Khan was driven away for questioning, he watched his home go up in flames. Within were the bodies of two of his brothers and of his sister-in-law Khanzari, who was shot three times in the head. Villagers who rushed to the home found the burned body of her 3-year-old daughter, Marina, in a corner of a torched bedroom. The men who raided the family’s home that March night, in the district of Nader Shah Kot, were members of an Afghan strike force trained and overseen by the Central Intelligence Agency in a parallel mission to the United States military’s, but with looser rules of engagement. Ostensibly, the force was searching for militants. But Mr. Khan and his family had done nothing to put themselves in the cross hairs of the C.I.A.-sponsored strike force, according to investigators. It was clear that the raiding force had “committed an atrocity,” . “Everyone we spoke to said they would swear on the innocence of the victims.” At a time when the conventional Afghan military and police forces are being killed in record numbers across the country, the regional forces overseen by the C.I.A. have managed to hold the line against the most brutal militant groups, including the Haqqani wing of the Taliban and also Islamic State loyalists.But the units have also operated unconstrained by battlefield rules designed to protect civilians, conducting night raids, torture and killings with near impunity, in a covert campaign that some Afghan and American officials say is undermining the wider American effort to strengthen Afghan institutions. Those abuses are actively pushing people toward the Taliban, the officials say. And with only a relatively small American troop contingent left – and that perhaps set to drop further on President Trump’s orders – the strike forces are increasingly the way that a large number of rural Afghans experience the American presence.
.