Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 27 July 2018
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, published Monday, Wednesday and Friday, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
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​Global
- Asian stocks trade mixed, with most major markets tepid; Nomura down 6% (CNBC) Asian shares were mixed on Friday, with Australia climbing while other major markets in the region turned in more tepid performances as investors focused on trade headlines and upcoming economic events. The dollar index was mostly steady at 94.697. Brent futures were down $0.06 at $74.48 a barrel by 0043 GMT, after gaining 0.8% on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were also $0.06 lower, at $69.55, after posting a nearly 0.5% gain the previous session. Spot gold was up 0.04% at $1,222.70 an ounce at 0102 GMT. The metal was set to fall for a third week, down about 0.7%. U.S. gold futures were down 0.3% at $1,222.10 an ounce.
- Global Trade is Slowing (The Daily Shot) Signs continue to point to slower international trade activity.
U.S.
- Cohen claims Trump knew in advance of 2016 Trump Tower meeting (CNN) Michael Cohen, President Donald Trump’s former personal attorney, claims that then-candidate Trump knew in advance about the June 2016 meeting in Trump Tower in which Russians were expected to offer his campaign dirt on Hillary Clinton, sources with knowledge tell CNN. Cohen is willing to make that assertion to special counsel Robert Mueller, the sources said.
Cohen’s claim would contradict repeated denials by Trump, Donald Trump Jr., their lawyers and other administration officials who have said that the President knew nothing about the Trump Tower meeting until he was approached about it by The New York Times in July 2017.
- Meadows backs off impeaching Rosenstein after leadership talks (The Hill) Rep. Mark Meadows (R, N.C.) says he is tabling his efforts to impeach Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein after having several meetings with Republican leadership, stating that he would instead pursue contempt if the Justice Department (DOJ) does not turn over documents Congress is seeking. While the impeachment option remains on the table, Meadows told reporters Thursday he now hopes it will be a contempt process rather than impeachment. See also Rosenstein impeachment push divides House GOP leadership and Senate GOP shoots down talk of impeaching Rosenstein.
- CNN reporter banned: Fox joins outcry after exclusion from White House event (The Guardian) A CNN reporter has been excluded by the White House from a press event after asking Donald Trump about Vladimir Putin’s postponed visit and the Michael Cohen tapes. The ban on White House reporter Kaitlan Collins sparked outcry from traditional rival Fox News and the White House Correspondents Association, which called the decision “wrong-headed, and weak“.
- The latest Trump scandal would have destroyed any other president (The Guardian) There is a new “Teflon Don” and he is living in the White House. The audio released of president discussing buying a model’s story will change little. Both in the US and UK, too many voters don’t seem to care. What has formerly been considered absolutely unacceptable behavior has become normalized.
- Morgan Stanley Forecasts 4.8% GDP Growth (The Daily Shot) See also Be Ready For A GDP Pop. Morgan Stanley is forecasting 4.7% GDP growth for the second quarter. Massive soybean exports ahead of China’s retaliatory tariffs boosted net exports (light blue).
- Raging wildfire threatens Redding, Shasta in Northern California, officials issue evacuation orders (USA Today) A wildfire raging in Northern California exploded in size overnight and continued its swift march toward heavily populated areas Thursday, consuming nearly 45 square miles by late afternoon. The Carr Fire raged northeast and burned through Shasta and Keswick toward Redding and Shasta Dam.
- I Was Fired For Criticizing Trump (The Nib) Rob Rogers was basically his own editor for 25 years at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. And then the publisher decided he didn’t like what he saw. Below is the beginning of Rogers’ story in cartoon form. Click on title link for complete story.
EU
- Michel Barnier kills off Theresa May’s Brexit customs proposals (The Guardian) The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator says UK ministers’ attempts to appeal to individual leaders are ‘waste of time’.
UK
- Imagine a parallel universe in which Brexit decisions made sense (City A.M.) This article gets to the heart of this situation:
There is a group of core integrationists at the heart of the EU who have been pushing for centralised fiscal policy, formalised EU citizenship, a European finance minister, and even an EU army.
That direction of travel has its opponents – in the anti-migration eastern states, and in the more fiscally responsible Scandinavian nations. These countries could perhaps be cajoled into submission, yes, but the UK was never going to follow the federalist fantasy. And someone in the EU should have acknowledged that.
Germany​
- Increasing Uncertainty for German Businesses (The Daily Shot) Germany’s Ifo business climate index showed increasing uncertainty. The spread between the current situation measure and business expectations continues to widen. The biggest concern, of course, is trade (lower left). However, German construction activity spiked (lower right).
- Leading Indicator for German Growth is Down (The Daily Shot) Everyone is watching Ifo’s expectations index it’s a leading indicator for Germanys GDP growth.
Russia
- Maria Butina: ties emerge between NRA, alleged spy and Russian billionaire (The Guardian) Senior members of the National Rifle Association (NRA) met the wife of the Russian billionaire who allegedly gave financial support to a woman accused of being a secret agent for Moscow in the US. The NRA members met Svetlana Nikolaeva, who is the head of a gun company that supplies sniper rifles to the Russian military and intelligence services, during a trip to Moscow during the 2016 election campaign. Nikolaeva’s husband, Konstantin Nikolaev, allegedly provided funding to Maria Butina, a young Russian woman charged with carrying out an illicit spying operation in Washington. Nikolaev reportedly once invested in his wife’s gun company.
The finding sheds further light on the links forged in recent years between America’s powerful gun lobby and well-connected Russians. US prosecutors allege Butina’s activities were directed by Alexander Torshin, a senior Russian state banker and an NRA member.
Pakistan
- Imran Khan claims victory in Pakistan elections (The Guardian) The former international cricket star Imran Khan has declared victory in Pakistan’s general election, hailing what he described as “the fairest” vote in the country’s history, despite widespread allegations it was rigged in favour of his Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. See also Pakistan likely to announce final election results on Friday (Reuters).
India
- Look around, can you see where tomorrow’s winners will be from? (The Economic Times) A rising middle class will change the structure of India’s domestic consumer economy. India is fast emerging as a market for premium products with rising per capita income and improving infrastructure. Today, a customer does not mind waiting a couple of months for a premium motorcycle or paying a few extra bucks for better services.
And reading between the lines, analysts say companies that focus on premiumisation would be the biggest winners as the economy slips into the next stage of growth. Value growth will gather steam over volume growth in a couple of sectors, they say.
- Nifty has steam for further upside, reveal options data (The Economic Times) Options data built up for the August expiry is giving early signs that Nifty, which hit a record high on Thursday, could rally further in the coming days. Maximum open interest of calls for the August expiry is at 11,500 and that for puts is at 11,000 levels. This means traders feel that on the higher side, Nifty could touch 11,500 plus the call premium for that level and the downside should be limited at 11,000 less the put premium. That would mean a further gain above 3%. In the last 30 days the Nifty has risen 3.7%.
North Korea
- North Korea hands over the possible remains of American war dead (CNN) A U.S. Air Force plane carrying what is believed to be the remains of US troops killed during the Korean War some 65 years ago arrived in Osan Air Base in South Korea on Friday morning.
South Korea
- South Korea scrambles jets to intercept Chinese warplane (Reuters) South Korea said on Friday it had scrambled military jets to intercept a Chinese military aircraft that entered the South’s air defense territory.
China
- With no debate, the Senate unanimously passed a bill that would cut or eliminate tariffs on toasters, chemicals and roughly 1,660 other items made outside the United States.
- Nearly half of those items are produced in China, according to a Reuters analysis of government records.
- The United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, are increasingly at loggerheads over trade.
- The Chinese yuan is still “fairly valued” despite recent declines against the dollar recently, said an International Monetary Fund official.
- The divergence in U.S. and China monetary conditions contribute to the recent slide in the Chinese yuan.
- While the IMF praised China’s progress on reducing financial sector risks and in further opening its economy, it said credit growth was still unsustainably high as some aspects of the country’s rebalancing had slowed.
