Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 15 May 2018
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, published Monday, Wednesday and Friday, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
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​Global
- China markets notch gains as Asia closes mostly lower; oil steady (CNBC) Slight gains seen during the U.S. session failed to translate into an advance in Asian stocks on Tuesday, with major markets in the region finishing the day in negative territory. The dollar index rose about 0.1% to 92.647. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped 0.07% to $70.91 per barrel and Brent crude futures edged lower by 0.04% to trade at $78.20. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,314.24 per ounce at 0056 GMT. U.S. gold futures for June delivery were, however, down 0.3% at $1,314.10 per ounce.
- Investors see big oil surge, but physical markets suggest caution (Reuters) Physical markets for oil shipments tell a different story than the surging market prices.. Spot crude prices are at their steepest discounts to futures prices in years due to weak demand from refiners in China and a backlog of cargoes in Europe. Sellers are struggling to find buyers for West African, Russian and Kazakh cargoes, while pipeline bottlenecks trap supply in west Texas and Canada.
- Supply and Demand Dynamics for Oil (The Daily Shot) Here is how the supply/demand dynamics contributed to oil price changes this year.
- Here’s What Oil at $70 Means for the World Economy (Bloomberg) Oil is coming out of a long period of low prices. See first graphic below. Oil producing nations will be the winners. U.S. production is expected to continue to rise right along with prices See second graphic below. Losers will include India, China, Taiwan, Chile, Turkey, Egypt and Ukraine.
U.S.
- White House Aide’s Plan to Stop Leaks: Spy on His Co-Workers (Daily Beast) A former National Security Council official now slated to work for Attorney General Jeff Sessions explored ways to surreptitiously monitor the communications of White House staff for leaks or perceived political disloyalty to Donald Trump, according to three former Trump NSC officials familiar with the effort.
- Trump to press GOP on changing Senate rules (The Hill) Frustrated with what he calls Democratic obstruction, President Trump is expected to press Senate Republicans during a lunch Tuesday to change the rules to speed up consideration of his nominees for vacant court seats and executive posts.
It has taken an average of 84 days to confirm Trump’s nominees, far longer than for the four presidents who preceded him, according to the Partnership for Public Service, a non-partisan group that tracks confirmations.
- ‘Tax Amazon’: Seattle passes plan for corporate wealth tax to fund housing (The Guardian) A parade of hardhat union workers and threats from hometown-behemoth Amazon did not stop Seattle leaders from passing on Monday a “head tax” meant to fund housing projects and homeless services.
A watered-down version of the tax, which will charge the city’s largest employees $275-per-worker annually, is now expected to be enacted by Seattle’s mayor, Jenny Durkan. The tax is projected to generate about $48m a year to address a housing crisis spurred on by Amazon’s rapid growth.
- Official Unemployment is at 3.9%? Economist Robert Pollin Says it is More Like 12% (The Real News Network) Why are wages not rising faster than inflation? Economic theory normally stays that when unemployment is low, wages go up, because there is more competition to attract workers. However, both wages and inflation remain quite low at the moment. Now, President Trump himself offered an explanation six years ago to this issue, before he was president, when he was still a businessman. He said:
“Unemployment rate only dropped because more people are out of the labor force and have stopped looking for work. Not a real recovery. Phony numbers.”
- When Will U.S. Expansion End? (The Daily Shot) Most economists expect the next recession to hit in 2020 or 2021, making the current expansion the longest on record.
EU
- China vs. the EU: The Influence War that only One Side Is Fighting (Geopolitical Monitor) China’s covert influencing activities are potentially far more consequential to the EU than those of Russia. So why is no one talking about them?
Germany​
- GDP for Q1 Disappoints (Twitter)
Iraq
- A surprise election result in Iraq is likely to add to tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
- Iraq’s election result could push the country to become the next battleground for religious and political influence in the Middle East, according to oil market analyst Helima Croft.
- A Shia cleric looks set to looks likely to gain the largest share of the vote
Russia
- Russian company charged in Mueller probe seeks grand jury materials (Reuters) A Russian company accused by Special Counsel Robert Mueller of funding a propaganda operation to interfere in the 2016 U.S. presidential election is asking a federal judge for access to secret information reviewed by a grand jury before it indicted the firm.
In a court filing on Monday, lawyers for Concord Management and Consulting LLC said Mueller had wrongfully accused the company of a “make-believe crime,” in a political effort by the special counsel to “justify his own existence” by indicting “a Russian-any Russian.”
They asked the judge for approval to review the instructions provided to the grand jury, saying they believed the case was deficient because Mueller lacked requisite evidence to show the company knowingly and “willfully” violated American laws.
Japan
- BOJ’s Kuroda shifts into lower gear on stimulus policy (Reuters) As Haruhiko Kuroda walks away from his “shock and awe” stimulus in favor of incremental policy shifts, he is edging ever closer to the approach of his predecessor at the Bank of Japan, a man he once derided for being too cautious.
North Korea
- Dismantling of North Korea nuclear site ‘well under way’, satellite images show (The Guardian) Several key operational buildings as well as smaller sheds have been razed, according to a US monitoring group. First picture below taken 20 April, the second 07 May. Click on images for enlargements.
China
- U.S., China still ‘very far apart’ on trade: U.S. ambassador (Reuters) The United States wants China to give a timetable on how it will open up its markets to U.S. exports as the two countries are still “very far apart” on resolving trade frictions, U.S. Ambassador to China Terry Branstad said on Tuesday.
- China’s Industrial Output Beats Estimates (Twitter)
