Written by Steven Hansen
The current economic expansion continues with many worried about a contraction occurring sometime in the near future. Although some dynamics are not strong, there is no data I view which points to an end of the Great Recession recovery and expansion.
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Just this week, new home sales were released by the US Census. Honestly, I am not a fan of this data series because of the significant backward revisions which completely change trends at times. Still new home sales have remained relatively strong relative to economic growth.
New homes for sale and sold are a bellweather for recessions. Generally they provide at least a year’s warning before a recession.
Based on the current rates of growth for new homes for sale and sold, the next recession would be years away.
Other Economic News this Week:
The Econintersect Economic Index for April 2018 strongly improved and returned to territory associated with more robust economic growth normally associated with expansions. After the last few months of mediocre data, this month much of the data significantly improved. The 3 month rolling average (which is the basis of our forecast) improved 16%. This is the highest reading since October 2017.
