Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 26 April 2018
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, published Monday, Wednesday and Friday, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
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​Global
- Asian markets trade mixed; Greater China hit by declines in most sectors (CNBC) Asia markets were mixed in late morning trade on Thursday, following modest gains on Wall Street, where the Dow closed higher for the first time in six sessions. The dollar index traded up at 91.173 as of 8:23 a.m. HK/SIN. U.S. crude gained $0.35 to $68.05 a barrel while global benchmark Brent added $0.14 to $74. Spot gold was little changed at $1,323.66 per ounce at 0351 GMT, after falling by as much as 0.9% to $1,318.51 in the previous session, its lowest since March 21.
- Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry (Bloomberg)
About 279,000 barrels a day of fuel won’t be needed this year
China adds a London-sized electric bus fleet every five weeks
U.S.
- Republicans want Trump’s VA nominee to withdraw (The Hill) Senate Republicans are hoping that President Trump’s pick to head the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) withdraws his name and spares them a messy confirmation fight. While some GOP lawmakers are characterizing the allegations of improper conduct against Navy Rear Adm. Ronny Jackson as “cheap shots,” they have serious concerns about his lack of management experience.
- Fox News Poll: Mueller likely to find Trump offenses, Trump likely to fire him (Fox News) About two-thirds, 67% in the latest Fox News poll, say it is at least somewhat important the investigation continues, and 56% think it’s likely that Mueller’s probe will find Donald Trump committed criminal or impeachable offenses.
- Michael Cohen to plead the Fifth in Stormy Daniels suit (CBS News) President Trump’s personal lawyer says he’ll use his Fifth Amendment rights in the lawsuit filed by adult film star Stephanie Clifford against him and Mr. Trump, citing the FBI’s ongoing criminal investigation into him. A person testifying can invoke the Fifth Amendment to protect against self-incrimination.
- GOP advances proposal to change Senate rules (The Hill) Republicans are advancing a proposal to change the Senate’s rules to speed up consideration of President Trump’s nominees. The Senate Rules and Administration Committee on a party-line 10-9 vote passed a resolution on Wednesday from Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) that would substantially cut down on the amount of debate time needed for hundreds of nominations. Because Republicans have a one-seat advantage on the committee, they were able to pass the proposal without any support from Democrats.
Republicans say the change is necessary because Democrats are using the Senate’s rulebook to slow-walk Trump’s picks.
- The Next 9 Days Will Teach Us a Lot About the U.S. Economy (Bloomberg) Two of the most anticipated data points will be inflation and wages.
- Trump Continues to Resist Meeting with Mueller and Could Trigger a Massive Legal Battle: Report (AlterNet) President Donald Trump continues to resist giving an interview to special counsel Robert Mueller, and his refusal could ultimately spark a massive legal battle between the White House and the FBI, according to a new report by the Washington Post. Trump has previously said that he would meet with Mueller, including once at a press conference during which he called former FBI Director James Comey a liar. Trump said he would testify under oath, but since lying to the FBI is a crime, there would be no need for him to swear he was telling the truth. But according to the new report from Robert Costa and Carol Leonnig, Trump soured on the idea of speaking to Mueller after the offices of his attorney Michael Cohen were raided by federal investigators. This could lead to Mueller isuing a supoena. Now that would really create a crisis.
- California’s next megaflood would be worse than eight Hurricane Katrinas (Grist) Worse than the 1906 earthquake. Worse than eight Hurricane Katrinas. Worse than every wildfire in California history, combined. The world’s first trillion-dollar natural disaster. A wintertime megaflood in California could turn out to be the worst natural disaster in U.S. history by far, and we are making it much more likely, according to an alarming study published this week in Nature Climate Change.
The odds are good that such a flood will happen in the next 40 years, the study says. By the end of the century, it’s a near certainty. (And then another one hits, and another – three such storms are possible by 2100). By juicing the atmosphere, extreme West Coast rainstorms will happen at five times their historical rate, if humanity continues on roughly a business-as-usual path, the new research predicts.
In 2011, the USGS assessed the modern-day implications of a flood like the one that happened in the winter of 1862 – currently the worst flood in California history. An unceasing onslaught of atmospheric rivers brought Los Angeles three years worth of rain, more than 36 inches, in a month and a half. Floodwaters turned California’s Central Valley into an inland sea, from Bakersfield to Redding. When it was all finished, the storms had destroyed one-third of the taxable land in California, and bankrupted the state.
EU
- Investors Want to Know Whether Draghi Is Worried About Economic Momentum (Bloomberg) Mario Draghi’s press conference today may well feature repeated versions of the same question: how worried is he? From sagging business confidence to falling industrial output, the region seems to be losing economic momentum after the best performance in a decade last year. Yet the European Central Bank president and his colleagues say the expansion in the 19-nation bloc is stabilizing rather than slowing down.
UK
- Windrush scandal could cost Conservatives crucial voters (The Conversation) The UK’s black Caribbean community is traditionally more inclined towards Labour. They’re even less likely to switch now.
- Far more Britons live in Europe than government statistics suggest (The Conversation) The UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) has recently produced estimates of the number of British citizens living in the European Union (EU). The numbers, apparently, have declined from 1.22m prior to 2017, to “around 900,000″ (Jan 2017), and more latterly to 784,900 (April 2018). Meanwhile, our research has revealed that most informed commentators (academics, local government officials, consular offices, and others who work with the British abroad) understand numbers to have changed little since 2008, and that the correct, conservative, estimate is closer to 1.8m. The author suggests political manipuklation of the numbers is taking place.
Germany​
- Deutsche Bank posted first-quarter net profits of 120 million euros ($146 million) Thursday, a 79 percent fall from last year’s figure.
- The bank announced plans to significantly reduce its workforce through the rest of 2018, particularly in its corporate and investment bank and infrastructure functions.
- The Frankfurt-based lender has been under scrutiny from shareholders for posting three consecutive years of losses, including a 497 million euro loss for 2017.
Iran
- European powers say they are nearing plan to save Iran nuclear pact (Reuters) French President Emmanuel Macron called on the United States on Wednesday not to abandon the Iran nuclear deal as Western envoys said Britain, France and Germany were nearing a package that seeks to persuade U.S. President Donald Trump to save the pact.
- Macron Says He Thinks Trump Will Pull Out of Iran Nuclear Deal (Bloomberg) French President Emmanuel Macron said he thinks U.S. President Donald Trump will withdraw from the Iran nuclear accord, dealing a blow to the six-nation agreement reached in 2015 and endorsed by world powers. He added that he encouraged the American president to stay in the accord during his three-day visit to the U.S. capital. Macron told journalists Wednesday in Washington:
“My view – I don’t know what your president will decide – is that he will get rid of this deal on his own for domestic reasons.”
Japan
South Korea
- South Korea’s Moon to meet North Korea’s Kim at border for summit (Reuters) South Korean President Moon Jae-in will meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Friday as the latter crosses a military demarcation line to the South for the first summit between the two sides in more than a decade, South Korea said.
Australia
- Morgan Stanley: Property outlook worst in 30 years (Macro Business)
Morgan Stanley says property prices will fall 8% this year:
The risk is skewed to the downside given an increasing focus on responsible lending.
This suggests the likely decline in prices will likely continue throughout 2018.
With national prices down 1.5 per cent from the peak late last year, it is clear the housing market has turned.
