China: Is the Experiment Over?

Written by Frank Li

China’s Congress will soon change the Constitution, removing the term limit for the Chinese Presidency, thus allowing Xi Jinping to serve as the President indefinitely.

Is this a big deal? Yes, but not as big as many westerners think (China sets stage for Xi to stay in office indefinitely)! More profoundly, is the experiment over? No, not yet at least! Let me explain …

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1. What is the experiment?

In 1982, China introduced a new Constitution, which spelled out an explicit term limit for the Chinese Presidency: two five-year terms. It is an experiment, with mixed results so far.

2. Background

After Mao’s death in 1976, China embraced capitalism as a major part of its economic reforms, thanks to a wise “Emperor” named Deng Xiaoping. Deng also modestly reformed China’s political system as follows:

1. Rule #1: Emphasized collective leadership (vs. Mao’s one-man show) at the top of the CPC (Communist Party of China). For example, the CPC’s Politburo Standing Committee was a body of nine (now seven) persons, with its head entitled “General Secretary”, instead of “Chairman”.
2. Rule #2: Introduced a term limit, in the Constitution, for the Chinese Presidency, which is typically occupied by the CPC’s General Secretary.

Deng also introduced some un-written rules, hoping to see them last in the form of traditions. Two examples:

1. Rule A: Age limits: 7 up and 8 down (七上八下). Here is what it means: at the CPC Congress every five years, if you are age 67 or below, you are eligible to enter, or remain in, the Politburo. If you are age 68 as a current member, you must exit.
2. Rule B: Jump-generation successor nomination: No General Secretary should nominate his (or her) own successor. Instead, his predecessor does! For example, President Jiang Zemin did not nominate President Hu Jintao – Deng did. Nor did President Hu nominate President Xi – Jiang did!

3. What are the results?

Mixed! While the “China [economic] miracle” continued under both Presidents Jiang and Hu, China was getting worse politically, with corruption permeating throughout the CPC ranks, threatening the CPC’s rule of China.

Enter Xi Jinping …

4. Xi Jinping

Xi became the CPC’s General Secretary on November 15, 2012. Below is the cover of my first book (published on December 1, 2012), highlighting Xi’s importance to China at the same level as Deng and Mao.

Below is an excerpt from the book (page 42).

As China changed its leadership in November 2012, its new leaders now face a huge challenge: how to further transform China’s political system into a form that is progressively more and more truly of/by/for the people? … Leadership matters! The smooth ride set out by Deng will be over soon. A new greatness must appear for the next China!

In short, Xi came to power at a critical time of Chinese politics.

4.1 Xi’s first term

Overall, Xi did very well throughout his first term. Specifically, two highlights:

1. In contrast to his predecessor Hu, who fashioned a loose-loose management style, Xi has proven to be a strong man. For example, his anti-corruption campaign was widely popular among the Chinese.
2. He has also proven to be a skilled statesman internationally.

4.2 Xi’s second term

As Xi entered his second term, he abandoned un-official Rule B described above. Specifically, not only did Hu’s nominee Sun Zhengcai fail to become the VP (and hence the official successor) as scheduled, he was recently charged for corruption.

Consequentially, Rule #2 described above has to be changed, which is just a matter of time after the 19th CPC Congress in October 2017. For more, read: Understanding China and President Xi, Truly!

With that, Xi will also likely break un-official Rule A described above, because he will be 69 by 2022, when the next CPC Congress is scheduled to convene.

5. Discussion

I do not know whether the charge against Mr. Sun is valid. Nor do I think the Chinese Constitution, as a big part of the Chinese experiment, should be cast in stone without [significant] changes over time. But given the importance of the “Emperor” to China, as well as to the world, I will give President Xi the benefit of the doubt.

Yes, the Chinese experiment will continue, even if Xi serves into his third term.

No, the Chinese experiment will be over, if Xi serves for life, replacing Mao as the last de facto Emperor of China!

For more, read: Understanding China and President Xi, Truly!

More profoundly, can China, the longest continuous civilization in human history, eventually find a formula that will guarantee the production of wise “Emperors” generation after generation?

For more, read: Governance in China: Past, Present, and Future.

Looking beyond China, two comparisons:

1. Unlike Russia’s Putin, who had to work around Russia’s Constitution in order to run for the Russian presidency the third time, Xi will just change China’s Constitution in order to continuously serve into his third term.
2. President Trump can only wish to have the power like Putin and Xi.

To some degree, maybe the Chinese can blame America: the 1982 version of the Chinese Constitution was written by heavily reference to the U.S. Constitution, especially the part on the term limit for the President. But look at America today. Two big points:

1. Today’s Chinese government is more confident than ever, given China’s growing global status vs. America’s decline, both economically and politically.
2. Despite all the elections, President Trump is the best we can have in America. Compared with President Trump, President Xi is not only seven years younger, but also much more experienced and skillful. So, why should he even think of stepping down?

Everything is relative! Two examples:

1. Despite all the problems with the Trump Presidency, if the election were held today, I would still vote for him, because he would still be the lesser of two evils.
2. Despite all the problems with China’s political system, I still think it’s slightly better than America’s.

Having said the above, let me conclude with two points:

1. Few Americans should find China’s political system attractive. But China is not America. So, let the Chinese work out their political system, over time!
2. We, Americans, should worry about our own political system. For more, read my book: American Democracy.

6. Closing

I wish the best for China. Hopefully, President Xi will ultimately prove to be a very wise “Emperor”, judged by history.

Meanwhile, for mankind, the search for an ideal form of government continues. For more, read: Towards an Ideal Form of Government (Version 3).