Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 27 February 2018
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, published Monday, Wednesday and Friday, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
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​Global
Nikkei advances 286 points as Asian stocks extend gains; Powell testimony ahead (CNBC) Most markets in Asia advanced on Tuesday while the dollar slipped ahead of a congressional testimony from the new Federal Reserve chair during U.S. hours. The dollar index stood at down very slightly to 89.830 at 12:42 p.m. HK/SIN. U.S. West Texas Intermediate edged down 0.23% to trade at $63.76 per barrel. Brent crude futures were off by 0.18% at $67.38. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,331.86 an ounce at 0448 GMT. U.S. gold futures were up 0.1% at $1,333.55 per ounce.
U.S.
- Congress steps into thorny gun debate (The Hill) GOP leaders in the House are preparing a legislative package aimed at bolstering school safety in reaction to the shooting this month at a Florida high school that left 17 dead and reopened a national debate over guns.
- U.S. to overtake Russia as top oil producer by 2019 at latest: IEA (Reuters) The United States will overtake Russia as the world’s biggest oil producer by 2019 at the latest, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday, as the country’s shale oil boom continues to upend global markets. The IEA said production growth was not just strong in the United States:
“Canada, especially the oil sands, and Brazilian offshore projects. These are the two major (non-U.S.) drivers.”
- Fact-Checking the Dueling Memos on Alleged Bias in Russia Probe (Bloomberg) No summary. Read this article for yourself.
- GOP senators: ‘Dreamers’ deal will likely end up in funding bill (The Hill) Republican senators are predicting that a fix for a key Obama-era immigration program will end up in next month’s government funding bill, as they search for ways to break a months-long stalemate. Several GOP senators said Monday that the mammoth bill, known as an omnibus, would likely be the vehicle for a deal on the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said that including a short-term deal on DACA in the omnibus was the most likely of three potential paths forward.
- Twenty U.S. states sue federal government seeking end to Obamacare (Reuters) A coalition of 20 U.S. states sued the federal government on Monday over Obamacare, claiming the law was no longer constitutional after the repeal last year of its requirement that people have health insurance or pay a fine. Led by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Wisconsin Attorney General Brad Schimel, the lawsuit said that without the individual mandate, which was eliminated as part of the Republican tax law signed by President Donald Trump in December, Obamacare was unlawful.
- Trump Administration Defeats Sick Kids Who Want Access to Pot (Bloomberg) Supporters of legal cannabis lost in their latest effort to scale back the drug’s federal classification among the most dangerous narcotics. A Manhattan-based federal judge dismissed the claims Monday, saying that Congress ultimately holds authority to classify drugs. U.S. District Court Judge Alvin Hellerstein directed the plaintiffs — two sick children, a former professional football player and the Cannabis Cultural Association — to go first through federal regulators. Their attorneys have promised to appeal the ruling. The marijuana advocates claimed the drug was unconstitutionally labeled alongside heroin and LSD when Congress passed the Controlled Substance Act in 1970.
- The States With The Most Gun Laws See The Fewest Gun-Related Deaths (The Atlantic) This article is from August 2015 so the data has been known for some time. In addition to the data below, background check and concealed carry laws are also examined and do not have a strong correlation with gun-related homicides.
Click to see large table for all 50 states plus D.C.
EU
- Mario Draghi calls for end to clearing dispute before Brexit (City A.M.) Mario Draghi today moved to put the spotlight back onto London’s multi-trillion euro clearing industry, urging the EU to push through a new approach to regulation before Brexit.
The European Central Bank (ECB) president demanded a central role in the supervision of clearing central counterparties (CCPs), yet struck a more conciliatory tone than some European politicians who want the industry to be uprooted from London.
Draghi, speaking to the European Parliament, made it clear that he sees Brexit as a reason for the EU to speed up the passage of regulations which will give the ECB far-reaching powers over clearing houses in London and beyond.
UK
- No wonder the pound is rising – 2018 could finally be the year that hawks get their way and push up interest rates (City A.M.) The start of next week will mark nine years since the Bank of Englandslashed interest rates to an historic low of 0.5% and unleashed its first round of quantitative easing, an unprecedented measure designed to counteract a deep recession triggered by the financial crisis. Ever since, hawks and doves have squabbled over the timing of policy normalisation – in other words, when should central bankers feel comfortable enough to lift rates to a more historically normal level? Overall, the doves – economists favouring a loose stance – have been victorious time and time again. But that appears to be ending in 2018.
Iran
- U.S. threatens action against Iran after Russia U.N. veto (Reuters) The United States threatened unilateral action against Iran on Monday after Russia vetoed a western bid for the United Nations Security Council to call out Tehran for failing to prevent its weapons from falling into the hands of Yemen’s Houthi group.
South Korea
- South Korean prosecutors seek 30-year jail term for ex-President Park (Reuters) South Korean prosecutors on Tuesday sought a 30-year jail term for former President Park Geun-hye who was ousted last year amid an influence-peddling scandal that rocked the country’s business and political elite.
China
- China Now Faces the Downsides of Dictatorship (Bloomberg) The period of term-limited presidents corresponded with unprecedented growth. Now Xi Jinping is changing the rules.
China’s nearly 30-year experiment with time-limited government is officially coming to an end. The Chinese Communist Party has suggested amending China’s constitution to allow President Xi Jinping to serve more than two five-year terms. Considering that the party rules the country, and Xi rules the party, that means two things: The constitution will be amended. And Xi is going to be president for life, much like Mao Zedong or Deng Xiaoping.
- China’s Coming Challenge to the U.S. Petro-Economy (Council on Foreign Relations) China is banking on clean energy technologies as major industrial exports that will compete with U.S. and Russian oil and gas and make China the renewable energy and electric vehicle superpower of a future energy world. According to the International Energy Agency, the Chinese public and private sectors will invest more than $6 trillion in low carbon power generation and other clean energy technologies by 2040. Chinese investment in battery technology is likely to have a similar effect on battery prices. Econintersect: China may price fossil fuel energy right out of the market and the U.S. global economy leadership right along with it.
- The economic outlook for China in 2018 (The Economist) Summary:
Our expectations for near-term economic expansion in China have changed. We have raised our forecast for real GDP growth in 2018 to 6.4%, from 5.8% previously, amid signs that the authorities will not pursue a concerted deleveraging drive this year. Although positive for short-term growth, the current policy stance raises questions about when (and even if) the government will tackle the country’s significant debt overhang. To reflect this uncertainty, we have adopted a more conservative profile for medium- and long-term GDP growth.
