from the International Monetary Fund
Global economic activity is picking up with a longawaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1 percent in 2016 to 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018, slightly above the October 2016 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. Stronger activity and expectations of more robust global demand, coupled with agreed restrictions on oil supply, have helped commodity prices recover from their troughs in early 2016.
Higher commodity prices have provided some relief to commodity exporters and helped lift global headline inflation and reduce deflationary pressures. Financial markets are buoyant and expect continued policy support in China and fiscal expansion and deregulation in the United States. If confidence and market sentiment remain strong, short-term growth could indeed surprise on the upside.
But these positive developments should not distract from binding structural impediments to a stronger recovery and a balance of risks that remains tilted to the downside, especially over the medium term. Structural problems – such as low productivity growth and high income inequality – are likely to persist. Inward-looking policies threaten global economic integration and the cooperative global economic order, which have served the world economy, especially emerging market and developing economies, well. A faster-than-expected pace of interest rate hikes in the United States could tighten financial conditions elsewhere, with potential further U.S. dollar appreciation straining emerging market economies with exchange rate pegs to the dollar or with material balance sheet mismatches. More generally, a reversal in market sentiment and confidence could tighten financial conditions and exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in a number of emerging market economies, including China – which faces the daunting challenge of reducing its reliance on credit growth. A dilution of financial regulation may lead to stronger near-term growth but may imperil global financial stability and raise the risk of costly financial crises down the road. In addition, the threat of deepening geopolitical tensions persists, especially in the Middle East and North Africa.
Against this backdrop, economic policies have an important role to play in staving off downside risks and securing the recovery, as stressed in previous WEOs. On the domestic front, policies should support demand and balance sheet repair where necessary and feasible; boost productivity through structural reforms, well-targeted infrastructure spending, and other supply-friendly fiscal policy measures; and support those displaced by structural transformations, such as technological change and globalization. Credible strategies are needed in many countries to place public debt on a sustainable path. Adjusting to lower commodity revenues and addressing financial vulnerabilities remain key challenges for many emerging market and developing economies. The world also needs a renewed multilateral effort to tackle a number of common challenges in an integrated global economy.
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Source: http://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2017/April/pdf/c1.ashx
