Written by Econintersect
Early Bird Headlines 25 February 2017
Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
Global
Longevity in rich countries (The Economist) A new study suggests South Koreans will have the world’s highest life expectancy by 2030.
U.S.
GOP Senators Embrace Awkward Russia Probe That Could Hurt Trump (Bloomberg) A Senate Intelligence Committee investigation of Russia’s effort to influence last year’s U.S. election is shaping up as an unexpectedly bipartisan effort that could take months to complete as it explores the most significant controversy shadowing the new Trump administration. The investigation, which will involve scouring highly classified material, is still in its early stages, but Republicans are so far joining Democrats on the panel in pledging to conduct it in a serious manner. The committee will examine the extent of contacts that President Donald Trump’s associates had with Russian officials before and after the Nov. 8 vote. In particular, it plans to look into conversations that Michael Flynn, who was ousted last week as Trump’s national security adviser, had with the Russian ambassador during the presidential transition.
Industry plaintiffs appeal Dallas court’s decision to uphold DOL fiduciary rule (Investment News) Financial industry trade groups seeking to stop the DOL fiduciary rule are appealing a recent decision by a Dallas federal judge to uphold the measure. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, the Financial Services Institute, the Insured Retirement Institute, the Financial Services Roundtable and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce filed the appeal on Friday in the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans. Earlier this month, the groups lost at the district court level when Chief Judge Barbara M.G. Lynn of the Northern District of Texas granted summary judgment to the DOL. She shot down each of the industry’s arguments against the rule, which included claims that DOL lacked authority to promulgate it, violated rulemaking parameters and created a new “private right of action” for clients to pursuing litigation against financial advisers. The plaintiffs say they can succeed at the appeals level.
Marijuana Industry Projected To Create More Jobs Than Manufacturing By 2020 (Forbes) A new report from New Frontier Data projects that by 2020 the legal cannabis market will create more than a quarter of a million jobs. This is more than the expected jobs from manufacturing, utilities or even government jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS says that by 2024 manufacturing jobs are expected to decline by 814,000, utilities will lose 47,000 jobs and government jobs will decline by 383,000. This dovetails with data that suggests the fastest-growing industries are all healthcare related.
The legal cannabis market was worth an estimated $7.2 billion in 2016 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 17%. Medical marijuana sales are projected to grow from $4.7 billion in 2016 to $13.3 billion in 2020. Adult recreational sales are estimated to jump from $2.6 billion in 2016 to $11.2 billion by 2020.
New Frontier bases these projections on the markets that have already passed such legal initiatives and don’t include additional states that could come on board by 2020. Currently there are 25 states with some form of legalized medical marijuana and seven states have legalized recreational marijuana laws that are in various stages of being implemented.
Chuck Spinney warns that we’re sleepwalking into a new arms race (Fabius Maximus) Both CS and FM have contributed to GEI. Summary:
One of the “an echo not a choice” aspects of the election was the war on Russia. Clinton’s team was well-stocked with cheerleaders for restarting the cold war. Trump won, so we have an administration stocked with cheerleaders for restarting the cold war. McMaster as National Security Advisor completed the roster. Here Chuck Spinney describes how the Deep State has managed this impressive feat, and how this game looks like from Russia.
Experts dispute Trump’s assertion that U.S. nuclear arms capability is lagging (Reuters) While President Donald Trump has suggested that the United States must expand its nuclear arsenal, many experts say U.S. nuclear forces are unrivaled and will remain so as they undergo a modernization program that could cost more than $1 trillion. In an interview with Reuters on Thursday, Trump said the United States has “fallen behind on nuclear weapon capacity“. He pledged to ensure that, “We’re going to be at the top of the pack.” While Moscow currently deploys 200 more strategic nuclear warheads than the United States does, both countries are bound by the 2010 New START treaty to slash their deployed strategic warheads to no more than 1,550 each by February 2018, the lowest level in decades. The accord also limits their deployed land- and submarine-based missiles and nuclear-capable bombers. However, nuclear weapons experts say, the 30-year modernization program, which maintains many existing weapons and their computers, communications, electronics, and other systems, is more important than having as many warheads as Russia has.
Poll: More Americans Trust The Media Than Donald Trump (Forbes) Despite President Donald Trump’s relentless attacks on the “fake news” media, a new poll from Quinnipiac University finds that more Americans trust the media than Donald Trump. A majority of Americans, 52%, said they trust the news media over Donald Trump to tell the truth about important issues. Only 37% said they trusted Trump more. Unsurprisingly, responses divided sharply on party lines.
U.S. Gas ‘Pain Train’ May Chug Along as Spring Fever Grips Bears (Bloomberg) U.S. natural gas prices are off to the worst start to a year since 2006, and the rout may not be over yet. Eight of 12 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg see futures sliding further after dropping 29% so far this year. Three were bullish and one predicted prices would hold steady.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Wealth Is About to Get a Reality Check (Bloomberg) Saudi Arabia has said oil giant Saudi Aramco is worth more than $2 trillion, enough to consume Apple Inc. twice, and still have room for Google parent Alphabet Inc. The kingdom may have to settle for less. A lot less. Industry executives, analysts and investors told Bloomberg their analysis — based on oil reserves and cash flow projections under different tax scenarios — suggests Aramco is worth no more than half, and maybe as little as a fifth, of that amount. This means Saudi Arabia would earn a fraction of the $100 billion implied by its valuation if it sells 5% to the public in 2018, as planned.
India
Kansas shooting: Widow of Indian man calls for action on hate crimes (CNN) The widow of an Indian man killed in a Kansas bar said Friday she was constantly worried about violence against foreigners, but her husband had assured her everything would be OK. Sunayana Dumala said, according to video recorded by CNN affiliate KCTV:
“I told him many a times, ‘Should we think about going back? Should we think about going to a different country?’ He said, No.”
Philippines
Leading critic of Philippine leader arrested on drug charges (Associated Press) A Philippine senator and leading critic of President Rodrigo Duterte’s deadly crackdown on illegal drugs said she won’t be intimidated by a leader she called a “serial killer” after police arrested her on drug charges. Leila de Lima said the accusations against her were part of an attempt by Duterte to muzzle critics of the clampdown that has left more than 7,000 suspected dealers and small-time users dead. She questioned why the court suddenly issued the arrest order when it was scheduled Friday to hear her petition to throw out the charges of receiving bribes from detained drug lords.
North Korea
AP Analysis: Will China be North Korea’s Trump card? (Associated Press) China’s announcement it has suspended North Korean coal imports may have been its first test of whether the Trump administration is ready to do something about a major, and mutual, security problem: North Korea’s nukes. While China is Pyongyang’s biggest enabler, it is also the biggest outside agent of regime-challenging change – just not in the way Washington has wanted.
Judging from Trump’s limited comments so far, and the gaping chasm between Washington’s long-held focus on sanctions and punishment and Beijing’s equally deep commitment to diplomatic talks that don’t require the North to first give up its arsenal, a deal between the two won’t come easily.
But if Beijing is indeed sending a signal to Trump about Pyongyang, its opening bid was a big one. North Korea’s coal exports to China totaled $1.2 billion last year, according to Chinese customs. U.S. officials say that represents about one third of the North’s total export income.
South Korea
This Currency Reigns Supreme in Asian Emerging-Market Plays (Bloomberg) As the most sensitive emerging Asian currency, South Korea’s won provides the best proxy for investors looking to bet on how the region reacts to U.S. President Donald Trump. The currency’s volatility is 11% for the past year, more than all of its peers in the region, including the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The won is also the strongest, rising 5.3% against the dollar year-to-date.
