from the St Louis Fed
— this post authored by Kevin Kliesen
The St. Louis Fed’s Economic News Index predicts that real GDP will increase at a 3.6 percent annual rate in the third quarter, according to data through Sept. 2.
If realized, this would be substantially stronger than the 1.1 percent annual rate of increase registered in the second quarter, as can be seen in the figure below.
But if real GDP advances at a 3.5 percent rate in the third quarter, the economy’s four-quarter growth rate will remain around 1.5 percent. This is about 0.5 percentage points less than its average growth rate registered during the current economic expansion since the second quarter of 2009.
Notes and References
1 For information on index, see the blog post “St. Louis Fed Index Forecasts Bounce Back in Real GDP Growth.” This data series will eventually be available through the Federal Reserve Economic Data(FRED) database.
Additional Resources
Regional Economist: Tracking the U.S. Economy with Nowcasts
On the Economy: What Is the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index?
On the Economy: St. Louis Fed Forecasts Bounce Back in Real GDP Growth?
Source
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2016/september/real-gdp-projected-annual-rate-third-quarter
Disclainer
Views expressed are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or of the Federal Reserve System.