Written by Econintersect
Today the daily GEI newsletter was mailed with incomplete content. The correct content has been posted here for subscribers’ convenience. A side benefit is that all readers can review the newsletter content and see what they are missing by not having a free subscription.
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Here is the full newsletter, including access to the normally restricted ‘What We Read Today’:
| September 2016 Economic Forecast: Outlook Again Improves But Growth Forecast Remains Weak |
Written by Steven Hansen
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| 01Sep2016 Market Close: Major Indexes Closed Mixed, Flat And Unattractive, Gold Climbed Higher, Crude Prices Slipped Lower Along With The US Dollar |
Written by Gary Wall Street closed mixed, flat, but mostly in the green rising from sideways afternoon trading. Crude prices remain depressed on glut concerns, the US dollar has fallen off session highs on investors rate increase concerns. The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge fell to 49.4 from 52.6 readings above 50 point to expansion, below 50 indicate contraction. Indicators bearish.
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| What We Read Today 01 September 2016 |
This feature is published every day late afternoon New York time. For early morning review of headlines see “The Early Bird” published every day in the early am at GEI News (membership not required for access to “The Early Bird”.). BECOME A GEI MEMBER – IT’s FREE! Every day most of this column (“What We Read Today”) is available only to GEI members. To become a GEI Member simply subscribe to our FREE daily newsletter. |
| 01Sep2016 Market Update: Wall Street Flat, Crude Prices Remain Weak And A Further Drop Is Expected, Indicators Neutral |
Written by Gary US major indexes remain in the red, flat, but off the morning lows (SPY -0.1%). Crude prices have slipped again (WTI 43.42), US dollar fallen to the mid 95’s and gold rising to 1317. Volume remains anemic, indicators neutral to bullish for the remainder of the session.
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| Is Anyone Out There. Mysterious Radio Signal Sparks Alien Speculation |
A mysterious radio signal picked up by a Russian telescope was probably not sent by aliens but astronomers in California are checking it out, anyway. |
| August 2016 ISM Manufacturing Survey Returns to Contraction |
Written by Steven Hansen
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| July 2016 Construction Spending Flat |
Written by Steven Hansen The headlines say construction spending was unchanged, and was significantly below expectations. The backward revisions make this series wacky – but the rolling averages significantly declined. Private construction now has little growth while public construction is in contraction.
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| July 2016 Median Household Income Insignificantly Changed |
from Sentier Research According to new data derived from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS), median annual household income in July 2016 was $57,190, not significantly different from the June 2016 median of $57,183.
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| 2Q2016 (Final): Headline Productivity Contraction Deepens Whilst Labor Costs Rise |
Written by Steven Hansen
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| 01Sep2016 Pre-Market Commentary: Wall Street May Open In The Red, Gold Tumbling Again, Crude Prices Falling And The US Dollar Displaying Strength |
Written by Gary US stock future indexes are up at 8:45 (SPY+ 0.1%) but the opening bell is expected to show negative values as Continuing Jobs Claims rose while Initial Jobs Claims were below what was predicted. Crude plunged more than 3% yesterday and is continued showing weakness. Indicators are bearish.
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| 27 August 2016 Initial Unemployment Claims: Rolling Averages Again Slightly Improve |
| Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims
The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg / Econoday) were 263,000 to 287,000 (consensus 265,000), and the Department of Labor reported 263,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 264,000 (reported last week as 264,000) to 263,000. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014. |
| Lessons From A Bangalore Kidnapping |
from STRATFOR
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| August 2016 Job Cuts Down As Downsizing Slowed |
from Challenger Gray and Christmas Downsizing slowed in August, as US-based employers announced plans to cut their payrolls by 32,188, a 29 percent decline from the 45,346 cuts in July
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| Infographic Of The Day: Timeline Of Breakthroughs In Solar Power |
Solar panels provide cost-effective and environmentally friendly form of energy production.
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| Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Flat, China Mfg Improves, Hanjin Roils Supply Chain, Yield Curve Flattens, Make Mexico Great Again, Trump Makes Gains, Spain Election Again, Japan Woos Russia And More |
Written by Econintersect Early Bird Headlines 01 September 2016 Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
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| Marco Tides Monthly Report For September 2016 |
by Jim Welsh The Fed – No Credibility, No Bubbles, But Distortions Aplenty The Federal Reserve began using “Forward Guidance” prior to June 2004, when it increased the federal funds rate from 1.0% to 1.25%. By providing forward guidance about the future course of monetary policy, the Fed believes it will help individuals and businesses in making decisions about spending and investments.
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| Further Problems With the Static Framework of the ISLM |
by Philip Pilkington Article of the Week from Fixing the Economists Last week I did a short post on how the ISLM model misrepresents how interest rates function because it views them as static. Today I would like to make a further, if more difficult point: namely, that the very way in which the interest rate stimulates investment is inherently limited in that it cannot produce cyclical upswings in effective demand – and thus, cannot produce cyclical upswings in output. In doing this I will be drawing on Jan Kregel’s excellent paper Of Prodigal Sons and Bastard Progeny which in turn draws on some of Joan Robinson’s own writings on the ISLM.
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| August 31, 2016 Weather and Climate Special Report |
Written by Sig Silber We thought it useful to provide updates to the status of the various cyclonic events taking place, give everyone an early look at the update of the September Outlook from NOAA that was issued today and discuss the dramatic change in the view of where ENSO is headed for this winter and possibly next winter as well.
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| Documentary Of The Week: Surviving In The Intellectually Bankrupt Monetary Policy Environment |
Written by John Lounsbury Richard C. Koo, Chief Economist, Nomura Research Institute, made the presentation below at the ACATIS Value Konferenz 2016 in Frankfurt am Main 20 February 2016.
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| Technical Nuggets: Wall Street’s Twilight Zone May Be About To Change |
by Investing Daily, Investing Daily — this post authored by Joe Duarte Investing Daily Article of the Week It’s not Halloween yet, but Wall Street feels a lot like a mix of the Twilight Zone, Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds, and Strawberry Fields, as the big brokerage houses and their talking heads float in a central bank easy-money fueled boat on a mythical river where nothing is real and they fantasize about meeting a girl with kaleidoscope eyes.
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| The Per Capita Champions Of Rio |
by Felix Richter, Statista.com — this post authored by Niall McCarthy The United States won the most medals at the Rio Olympics by a considerable distance but the story is much different when medal hauls are adjusted to take GDP and population into account.
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| Fed Recommits To Propping Up Markets No Matter What |
from Money Metals Exchange — this post authored by Mike Gleason Coming up we’ll hear from Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies and author of the book The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. Michael explains who’s behind the latest stock market rally, the truth about the economy’s health despite what the labor and payroll reports are telling us, and how he views gold as a must-have asset in the current and future environment.
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| Here’s Why High-Yield Bonds Are Much Riskier Than Most Investors Realize |
by Michael E. Lewitt Money Morning Article of the Week The highâ€yield bond area has been a Petri dish for misapplied financial theories and assumptions for years.
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| There Is A Simple Solution To Problems Like The 14.5 Billion Issue With Ireland And Apple |
by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance The Problem Let’s keep it simple – no need to get into the details to understand what this and other international corporate income tax disputes are all about.
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| How Maths And Driverless Cars Could Spell The End Of Traffic Jams |
from The Conversation — this post authored by Lorna Wilson, University of Bath Being stuck in miles of halted traffic is not a relaxing way to start or finish a summer holiday. And as we crawl along the road, our views blocked by by slow-moving roofboxes and caravans, many of us will fantasise about a future free of traffic jams.
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| How Far Would 1,500 Rent Get You In U.S. Cities |
by Felix Richter, Statista.com — this post authored by Martin Armstrong As recently revealed by the website RENTCafe, the amount of space you get for your monthly rent in the US varies hugely from city to city.
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| A Word from This Newsletter’s Sponsor for 01 September 2016 |
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Econintersect’s Economic Index has shown better growth for the second month in a row – but the economic outlook remains weak. The index remains near the lowest value since the end of the Great Recession. There remain recession warning flags in some of the data.
Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary “reading list” which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for “reading list” items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.
The ISM Manufacturing survey slipped slightly into contraction after five month in expansion. The key internals declined and are in contraction. The PMI manufacturing Index, also released today, is in positive territory and marginally declined.
A simple summary of the headlines for this release is that the growth of productivity contracted while the labor costs grew (headline quarter-over-quarter analysis). The year-over-year analysis also shows productivity in negative territory, and negative productivity is a usual indicator of a recession.
India is consistently ranked among the countries with the highest kidnapping risk, a lesson Ishaan Bapat learned firsthand. On his way home from his private university in Bangalore on Aug. 23, the 19-year-old was grabbed by two men and bundled into a car while waiting for a bus at a cafe. Bapat usually made the 19-kilometers (12-mile) commute by motorbike, but because his bike was in the shop, he took a bus and decided to grab a bite to eat during a transfer. Within a few hours of abducting him, Bapat’s kidnappers used his phone to contact his parents.
