Written by Yuhua Zhang, GEI Associate
In February 2015, China manufacturing PMI recovers a little from 48.9 to 49.9, which ends the continuous decline since July 2014. In the meantime, its non-manufacturing PMI also rebounds from 53.7 to 53.9 after the drastic fall in January. Although both of the sectors are trending up (although the manufacturing PMI is in contraction), the task of China to maintain its economic momentum continues.
Zhongtao Chen, senior economist in China Logistics Information Center stated that due to China’s Spring Festival, production and operation activities in China slow down – but the quantity of new orders is not affected. Moreover, thanks to Chinese government’s efforts to bolster the economy, their are growing expectations of firms’ of better business conditons – especially for small companies. In all, China economy continues to show continued growth, and is expected to rebound further in the future.
Therefore, there seem two main features of China economy recently.
- First, market demand improved in the past month. On the one hand, due to Chinese spring festival effect, consuming demand increases during the period of holidays. On the other hand, as some significant projects of infrastructure construction launch very early in this year, investment demand is accelerated.
Second, market vitality strengthens. With the improvement of market fundamentals and positive effect of new government policies aimed to bolster the economy, most enterprises see better business prospects in next season.
However, although China PMI recovers a little in February, the acceleration is weak, and considering the spring festival effect, the trend is far from certain – especially for the manufacturing industry, PMI has been lower than 50 for two consecutive months, which means the industry still faces recessionary pressure.
Under the arduous task of economic reform and structural adjustments, reasonable macro-control and positive policy measures are required for China’s government to maintain the favorable economic environment.
