by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in
So far, one thing is clear: we are in an exponential growth (not linear) when it comes to COVID-19, everywhere, except for Japan.
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Here is the full data set through March 7th:
Two observations worth making:
- Ex-China data is exponential. The doubling rate remains at around 4 days since February 24th, prior to that, it was at 6-7 days, which indicates acceleration in the exponential trend.
- With China data included, the trend is a bit more complex: we have exponential sub-trends of different steepness, with the first period through February 8th, followed by the step-function (on average still exponential) through February 17th, a linear sub-trend over 18th-24th of February and a new exponential trend since February 25th.
Post-February 25th trend is dominated by global infections, as opposed to China-based infections.
Currently, 17 countries have in excess of 100 confirmed cases:
Posted on True Economics 08 March 2020.
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