Global Economic Intersection
Advertisement
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
Global Economic Intersection
No Result
View All Result

Market Commentary: Markets Close Lower For The Fifth Day, WTI Oil Falls From Resistance, DOW Off 106

admin by admin
January 15, 2015
in Uncategorized
0
0
SHARES
0
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Written by Gary

Closing Market Commentary For 01-15-2015

The Swiss national Banks unexpected move to scrap a cap against the Euro was more of a fizzle and oil ruled the day again by falling more than 2% taking the equities with it in mid-day trading.

By 4 pm the averages took a fractional dive after having traded sideways for the entire afternoon reaching the session lows for the second time. Market problems continue to drive the equities downward questioning rational thoughts of investors on just what they are going to do?


The latest negative problem for investors is the SNB’s sudden move to scrap a cap on the Euro which turned out not to be such a big problem. According to Eric Marshall there are larger issues investor have to deal with.

“There’s a lot of cash still on the sidelines because of the worries over the global economy, over what’s going to happen with lower commodity prices,” said Eric Marshall, director of research at Hodges Capital Management in Dallas.

Investors are waiting not just results but forecasts from companies, he said. “There’s nervousness … but we think the fourth quarter earnings season will be somewhat of a relief.”

Regardless of what the Swiss frank does today the U.S. Unemployment report today represents a “significant uptick” according to Richard Hastings of Global Hunter Securities. After the Labor Department released a report this morning showing claims for state unemployment benefits rose last week. The total claims climbed to 316,000, 16K beyond what is associated with a firming labor market.

“That uptick in jobless claims is something that will really get the entire market reacting.”

Wall Street is bracing for shock waves from Swiss franc move

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) – Don’t be too quick to look past the turmoil that swept global financial markets after Switzerland’s central bank unexpectedly scrapped a cap on the value of its currency versus the euro.

While European and U.S. equities largely regained their footing after a panicky round of selling in the wake of the decision, dangers may still lurk in some corners of the market. Here are the potential shock waves to look out for: Read More >>

Some say the SNB’s move is far worse that a “Ripple” as Mr. Sturkenboom claims. For U.S. companies, trade exposure to Switzerland is small. And that means the direct impact is likely to be more of a ripple than a wave, said Wouter Sturkenboom, senior investment strategist at Russell Investments in London.

However, I am not convinced, but we will see. This revelation has not changed my investment strategy which is oil based for now.

Swiss mess could make oil plunge seem like minor hiccup

Then there’s crude CLG5, -3.80% the number one factor in determining the fate of the world economy, according to Anatole Kaletsky. “Every global recession since 1970 has been preceded by at least a doubling of the oil price, and every time the oil price has fallen by half and stayed down for six months or so, a major acceleration of global growth has followed,” he wrote. Kaletsky said $50 is the new ceiling, while many believe it to be the floor.

WTI oil reached the 51 dollar level as I proposed it would do yesterday and then fell sharply after the resistance could not be penetrated. It has continued to fall all session and I expect it to settle at the $40 range before moving either up or down. I will make further assertions of direction then.

Samantha Sunne of Investing.com reported that “Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut its crude oil price forecasts on Thursday, saying Brent could go as low as $31 by the end of the first quarter of 2015.” Which means WTI will go lower.

Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the close and the session market direction meter is 98 % bearish. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains below zero at -7.99. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your ‘dogs’ to the pound.

Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warnings of a ‘long-term’ reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.

Investing.com members’ sentiments are 41 % Bearish.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 50.3 % bullish with the status at Bear Confirmed. (Chart Here ) I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0 should the markets start to descend.

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -25.70. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

This $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% – 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.

StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at 47.51 %. (Chart Here) The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20’s.

Many indicators are showing markets leveling off or rounding indicating market softness that could lead to lower values and investor’s should watch carefully. The SP500 MACD, $BPNYA, $BPSPX, $TNX and the $NYA all show rounding off the tops which in the past has lead to a downturn.

Also, the SP500 10 DMA has crossed over the 20 DMA (12-11-14) always indicating a ‘correction’ underway. The 50,100, 145 and 200 DMA are all going flat which is never a good omen for a continuing bull run. Watch for the 50 DMA to cross over the 100,145 and 200 DMA to indicate how deep the correction will be.

These are not ‘leading’ indicators as such, but depicting ‘trends’ in the making showing data accumulated over the past several months, but needs to be watched.

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 54.12. (Chart Here) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 63.60. (Chart Here) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction.

StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 17.75. (Chart Here) 10-year Treasury yield drops below 2% for first time in 7 months

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 68.82. (Chart Here)

Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.00 / 62.75 (and staying there) should be of a great concern to bullish investors.

StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,544. (Chart Here) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors. It is a very important index for investors to watch. We are above the support (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance (triple top) at ~11,000 to 11,108, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. Next stop down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.

If you want to receive occasional Trader Alert ‘Tweets’ click here:

 

The DOW at 4:00 is at 17323 down 105 or -0.60%. (Historical High 18,103.45)

The SP500 is at 1993 down 2 or -0.92%. (Historical High 2,093.55)

SPY is at 199.53 down 0.86 or -0.41%.

The $RUT is at 1155 down 22 or -1.90%.

NASDAQ is at 4571 down 69 or -1.48%. (Historical High 5132.52)

NASDAQ 100 is at 4090 down 56 or -1.36%.

How the Popular ‘VIX’ Gauge Works

$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 22.48 up 1.00 or 4.66%. Bearish to Neutral Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net negative, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is negative.

Brent crude falls below $50 as Goldman cuts outlook

WTI oil is trading between 51.19 (resistance) and 46.13 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 46.20. (Chart Here)

Brent Crude is trading between 52.38 (resistance) and 48.09 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 48.201. (Chart Here)

The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.

Gold rose from 1226.24 earlier to 1266.44 and is currently trading down at 1258.40. The current intra-session trend is elevated and sideways. (Chart Here)

Can Dr. Copper Heal Thyself

Dr. Copper is at 2.571 falling from 2.594 earlier. (Chart Here)

The Consequences Of A Strengthening U.S. Dollar

Will 2015 be the Year of the Greenback?

The US dollar is trading between 93.14 (highest since 2005 and ~92 is a very substantial resistance with 92.53 representing a triple top) and 91.54 and is currently trading down at 92.57, the bias is currently sideways. (Chart Here)

Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn’t likely to fall easily. The current level (~91 / 92) is the resistance (substantial) and could be a triple top of sorts. Historical chart Here.

 

The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!

“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett

If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the ‘Follow‘ button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.

Real Time Market Numbers

Leading Stock Quotes powered by Investing.com

To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:

[email protected]

Written by Gary

 

Previous Post

Market Commentary: Markets Remain Fractionally In The Red As Oils Remain Elevated

Next Post

Stratfor: Europe Rediscovers Nationalism

Related Posts

What Are BRC-30 Tokens?
Econ Intersect News

What Are BRC-30 Tokens?

by John Wanguba
June 2, 2023
XRP Explosive Boom Results In Record-Breaking Address Activity
Economics

XRP’s Explosive Boom Results In Record-Breaking Address Activity

by John Wanguba
June 1, 2023
What To Consider When Evaluating Low-Code And No-Code Platforms
Business

What To Consider When Evaluating Low-Code And No-Code Platforms

by John Wanguba
June 1, 2023
Crypto Bear Phase Gone, ‘Explosive’ Bull Market Imminent – Veteran Investor
Economics

Crypto Bear Phase Gone, ‘Explosive’ Bull Market Imminent – Veteran Investor

by John Wanguba
June 1, 2023
Only 2 Exchanges Registered In Hong Kong As Crypto Ban Is Removed
Economics

Only 2 Exchanges Registered In Hong Kong As Crypto Ban Is Removed

by John Wanguba
May 31, 2023
Next Post

Stratfor: Europe Rediscovers Nationalism

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Browse by Category

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Browse by Tags

adoption altcoins bank banking banks Binance Bitcoin Bitcoin adoption Bitcoin market blockchain BTC business China crypto crypto adoption cryptocurrency crypto exchange crypto market crypto regulation decentralized finance DeFi Elon Musk ETH Ethereum Europe Federal Reserve finance FTX inflation investment market analysis Metaverse NFT nonfungible tokens oil market price analysis recession regulation Russia stock market technology Tesla the UK the US Twitter

Archives

  • June 2023
  • May 2023
  • April 2023
  • March 2023
  • February 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • November 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • May 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • August 2010
  • August 2009

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized
Global Economic Intersection

After nearly 11 years of 24/7/365 operation, Global Economic Intersection co-founders Steven Hansen and John Lounsbury are retiring. The new owner, a global media company in London, is in the process of completing the set-up of Global Economic Intersection files in their system and publishing platform. The official website ownership transfer took place on 24 August.

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Recent Posts

  • What Are BRC-30 Tokens?
  • XRP’s Explosive Boom Results In Record-Breaking Address Activity
  • What To Consider When Evaluating Low-Code And No-Code Platforms

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Contact Us
  • Bitcoin Robot
    • Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Code
    • Quantum AI
    • eKrona Cryptocurrency
    • Bitcoin Up
    • Bitcoin Prime
    • Yuan Pay Group
    • Immediate Profit
    • BitIQ
    • Bitcoin Loophole
    • Crypto Boom
    • Bitcoin Era
    • Bitcoin Treasure
    • Bitcoin Lucro
    • Bitcoin System
    • Oil Profit
    • The News Spy
    • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Trader
  • Bitcoin Reddit

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

en English
ar Arabicbg Bulgarianda Danishnl Dutchen Englishfi Finnishfr Frenchde Germanel Greekit Italianja Japaneselv Latvianno Norwegianpl Polishpt Portuguesero Romanianes Spanishsv Swedish