Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 11-24-2014
The morning session remained elevated and in the green, but traded sideways as volume fell to low levels.
By noon there was no indications, bullish or bearish, which way the market might go.
I suspect with the holidays coming up, we will see the markets become quieter and less volatile.
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the midday and the short-term market direction meter is neutral up from bearish this morning. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 25.43. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your ‘dogs’ to the pound.
Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warning of a ‘long-term’ reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 66 % Bearish (falling from 70% and now rising from 33%).
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 23.77. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
This $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% – 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at 58.48 %. (Chart Here) The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20’s.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 23.22. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.00 / 62.75 (and staying there) should be of a great concern to bullish investors.
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 11032. (Chart Here) We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance at ~10600/900, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. If they don’t then there an excellent possibility for the markets going higher now that we have topped 10900. Next stop down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.
The DOW at 12:15 is at 17817 up 7 or 0.05%. (Historical High 17,894.83)
The SP500 is at 2068 up 5 or 0.22%. (Historical High 2,071.46)
SPY is at 207.14 up 0.47 or 0.23%.
The $RUT is at 1182 up 9 or 0.79%.
NASDAQ is at 4745 up 32 or 0.67%. (Historical High 5132.52)
NASDAQ 100 is at 4278 up 27 or 0.64%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.71 down 0.19 or -1.40%. Bullish to neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is elevated and sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 76.99 (resistance) and 75.84 (support) today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading up at 76.76. (Chart Here)
The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1204.41 earlier to 1192.86 and is currently trading down at 1195.10. The current intra-session trend is neutral. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.010 falling from 3.045 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 88.51 (highest since 2009) and 88.14 and is currently trading down at 88.26, the bias is currently trending down. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn’t likely to fall easily.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary